1.0.0 Stinky Right-winger Factsheet By Socialism Done Left

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1.1.0 Book Recommendations

Intros to Socialism

Economics: About Capitalism

Economics: In Favor of Social Democracy and Developmental State

Economics: In Favor of Marksoc (Market Socialism)

Economics: In Favor of Plansoc (Planned Socialism)

Economics: In Favor of Worker Cooperatives

Economics: Post-Keynesian Economics and Analytical Marxian Theory

Economics: Critical Reviews of Socialist Economies

Institutional Design: Importance of Democracy and Markets, From Socdem-Proglib Perspectives

Effective Political Activism

Other Lefty Theory

Against Racialism

Historical Materialism

History of Socialism: Economics of the Soviet Union

1.1.1 Youtuber / Podcaster Recommendations

Socialists: Current Affairs

Socialists: Historical Discussions

Socialists: Theoretical Discussions

Socialists: Cultural Discussions

Social Democrats (Socdems)

Progressive Liberals (Proglibs)

1.1.2 Resources To Empower Your Research

Access Scientific Articles

Access Books

Access Old Webpages / Current Newspapers

Access Old Newspapers

Miscellaneous

2.0.0 Democracy, Voting, Civil Rights [axis One]

2.1.0 Efficacy Of Democracy

2.1.1 Scope Of Democracy

Over Time

Over Space

2.1.2 Effects Of Democracy

Civil Rights: Democracy Reduces Civilian Killings and Democide

Economics: Democracy Increases Economic Growth

Stability: Both Autocracy and Democracy Are Stable Government Forms

2.1.3 Opinion Polls About Democracy

Leftists Support Democracy

Direct Democracy

Support for Democracy Over Time

2.2.0 Pro-democracy Policies

2.2.1 Direct Democracy: Theory

Agenda Setting

Electronic Democracy

Economic Issues

Trustworthiness of Politicians

2.2.2 Multiparty Democracy Good

One-Party Rule and Regulatory Capture

2.2.3 Populism Bad (weak Evidence)

Populism Reduces Democracy: Bad Definition of Populism

Left Populism Also Reduces Democracy: Bad Definition of Populism

Populists Rule for Longer and Are More Likely to Be Ejected Than Voted Out (This Suggests They Centralize Power): Bad Definition of Populism

2.2.4 Compulsory Voting Good

Increased Turnout: Direct Effects

Increased Turnout: Reductions After Abolition

Increased Turnout: Law Passage Effects

Increased Representativeness: Income, Wealth, Class

Importance of High Turnout

Political Outcomes: Centrist Bias

Political Outcomes: Leftist Bias

Libertarian Objections: Freedom to Stay at Home

Infromational Outcomes

2.2.5 Democracy And Plutocracy In The Usa: Reviewing The Median Voter Theorem, Gilens And Page, And Biased Majoritarianism

Meta-Methodology Replication: >70% of Definitions Support Gilens, Remainder Don't Reject

Original Study:

Replication in the Netherlands

Replication in Sweden

Suggestive Evidence: Legislative Staffers Have Rich-Biased Perception of Constituencies

Mechanism: Lobbying vs Structural Power

Biased Pluralism Article: Poor Have Less Power but Some Power Using Better Metrics

Examining the Top 0.01%

Grossman Critique: Methods: Splitting Policies by Issue + Win Rates

Hersh Critique: Business Leaders Do Not Care and Voters Both Do and Don't Want Them Involved

Response to Bashir

What Do Megadonors Believe?

What Do Donors Believe?

Results by Party

Impacts on Policy

Suggestive Evidence: Media Ownership by the Ultra-Rich

Todo XXX Reread

2.2.7 Democracy And Plutocracy In The United States: Congressional Stock Returns

Summary

If congresspeople have higher-than-reasonable stock investment returns, it may suggest that they are using their position for financial benefit. However, the research on this question is mixed.

Ziobrowski Studies: Returns Higher Than Normal

Eggers Study: Returns Close to Normal, Only a Few High Results

2.2.8 Money In Politics Is Bad, Though Its Effects Are Weaker Than You Might Expect [TODO REREAD]

Causal: Citizens United Effects on Political Outcomes

Causal Evidence: Early Primary Fundraising Strongly Correlates With Vote Share in Primary Elections

Correlational: Campaign Contributions May Bias Judges Business: 2010-2012 Data (Weak: Not Significant for Most Election Types)

Correlational: Campaign Contributions May Bias Judges Business: 1995-1998 Data (Weak: Doesn't Compare to Appointed Judges)

Industry Control of State Legislatures: Model Bills

Money [UNFORMATTED, UNREAD]

Advertising [UNFORMATTED, UNREAD]

Participation [UNFORMATTED, UNREAD]

2.3.0 Justice System

2.3.1 Judicial Election Vs Judicial Appointment: Mixed Evidence

Scope

Quality: Elected Judges Are More Productive, Have Rates of Citation, and Are Equally Independent

Quality: Appointed Judges Have Better Decisions (Weak Article IMO Due to Definition of "Correct")

Independence: Elected Judges Tend to Vote in Favor of State Voter Preferences (Not Independent)

Independence: Appointed Judges and Partisan Judges Tend to Vote in Favor of the State Government (Not Independent)

Diversity: Little Difference

History of Judicial Elections

Rich vs Poor Spending on Law

Legal Aid: Per Capita Spending: Pretty Sources

Legal Aid: Per Capita Spending: Ugly Sources

2.3.3 Private Arbitration Bad

Arbitration vs Courts (Ancap Talking Point)

2.4.0 Supreme Court

2.4.1 Major Institutional Reforms

Socialist View

2.4.2 Originalism Sucks

Books Todo

Ironically, Originalism Supports Narrow/Weak Judicial Review Instead of Wide/Strong Judicial Review

Originalist Hypocrisy: Originalists Are Selective, Simply Picking and Choosing What Constitutional Doctrines

Originalists Have Openly Accepted That Ideas of Equality Have Changed Over Time

Gay Marriage Is Anti-Originalist

Desegregated Schools Are Anti-Originalist

2.5.0 Court Packing

2.5.1 Constitutionality

Not Set by Constitution

Timeline

2.5.2 Partisanship: History Of Escalation

Increasing Partisanship of Appointments

Timeline

2.5.3 Partisanship: Lack Of Judicial Independence

Congressional Opinion Affects Supreme Court Decisions

Popular Opinion Affects Supreme Court Decisions

Popular Opinion May Not Affect Supreme Court Decisions

Effects on Judicial Legitimacy

2.5.4 Partisanship: Ideology Of Justices Over Time

Bailey Score

Martin-Quinn Score

2.5.5 Solutions: Term Limits

Unformatted

2.5.6 Solutions: Credible Threat Via Constitutional Hardball

Inspiration

Retaliation

2.5.7 Solutions: Lottery: Lower Court Partisanship

Gop Forced Vacancies

Gop Filled Vacancies

Gop Dominates Lower Courts

2.5.8 Solutions: Lottery: Instability From Randomness

2.5.9 Solutions: 5-5-5: Problems

Let Congress Rule

if the court can't find 5 justices to fill the "middle", the party who has control of Congress/President may simply choose not to rule on cases that year

Two Party Lock

this formalizes two party rule, which makes it harder to move towards a diverse party system.

2.5.10 Solutions: Problems With Impeaching Justices

it's hard.

2.5.11 Polling

Impeachment

Court Packing

Term Limits

2.5.12 Bastiat Debate

Summary

Game Theory

minimum demand: balanced courts; maximum demand: court reform --> game theory: structure demand in such a way that escalation (accepting minimum demand but rejecting maximum demand) is less desireable than reform (accepting maximum demand)

Proposal

my proposal: the ranked choice term limited or RCTL supreme court

- 20 year term limit

^ prevents any president from appointing more than 8/20=40% of the court

^ prevents justices from exceeding historical term limit

- every 2 years, ranked choice selection of 5 justices (total court size: 50)

^ ensures ~2 lib, ~2 con, ~1 moderate

Bastiat Solutions: Lottery and 5-5-5 Court

Federalist Papers

Ginsberg Quotes

2.6.0 Media

2.6.1 Media Bias Towards Capitalists: Real And Significant

Media Supports Advertiser Narratives

Media Prefers Scandals to Policy

Media Prefers Sensationalism ("it Bleeds, It Leads"): Good Study

Media Prefers Sensationalism ("it Bleeds, It Leads"): Bad Study

2.6.2 Media Bias Toward Liberals/leftists: Mixture

Liberal Overrepresentation Among Journalists: Real

Conservative Overrepresentation Among Media Content: Real

Liberal or Conservative Bias on Youtube

Conspiracies to Keep Leftist Media Down

2.6.3 Publicly Funded Media Effective: Govtreon, News Vouchers, Media Vouchers, Journalism Vouchers

Background: Us Subsidized Media Extensively

Cjr's Citizenship News Voucher

Baker's Artistic Freedom Voucher

Public-Funded Sources Are Trustworthy

Public-Funded Sources Reduce Right-Wing Extremism

Todo XXX Reread

2.6.4 Echo-chambers / Echo Chambers: Very Real

Right-Wing Online Echo-Chamber

2.6.5 Fake News: Electoral Effects

Effects: 2016 Election

Fake News: Penetration

Fake News: General

Psychology: Fake News

Solution: Education

2.6.6 Fake News: Higher Prominence Among The Right

Right-Wing Sharing of Fake News

Right-Wing Belief in Fake News

Project Veritas Lies: Anecdotes

Fox News: Studies

Fox News Lies: Anecdotes

2.7.0 Polling

2.7.1 Why Polling Is Hard

Expensive

2.7.2 Polls Accurate

Polls Were Accurate: Statistics

Polls vs Projections

Polls Were Accurate in 2016

Polls Were Accurate in 2018

2.7.3 Unsorted Unformatted

2.7.4 Socialism And Social Democracy

Understanding: Americans Identify Socialism With Equality and State Ownership

Understanding: Policies and Socialist Identity

Mixed Identities: Favoring Both Socialism and Capitalism

Specific Policies: Fairly Popular

Specific Policies: Wealth Redistribution: Trends: No Major Change

General Social Survey: Variables to Consider

eqwlth

helppoor

helpnot

Support for Term Socialism: Levels by Age: Higher Among the Young

Support for Term Socialism: Trends: Gallup [Not Increasing]

Support for Term Socialism: Trends: Pew [Not Increasing]

Support for Term Socialism: Trends: Yougov [Slightly Increasing]

Support for Term Socialism: Levels: Other Pollsters

2.7.5 Perceptions Of Crime

Perceptions

2.7.6 Generation Z

Racism Declining

Good Polls

Shitty Poll From the Gild:

Shitty HHM Book Survey

Shitty Poll From Mycollegeoptions-Hispanic Heritage Foundation:

2.7.7 Qanon

2.8.0 Persuasion

2.8.1 Persuasion: Basically Everything Works

Summary

The studies below show that lots of specific methods work. In my opinion, the correct synthesis of these results is that basically *all* methods of persuasion work. While some may work better than others, and may work better on different people, evidence works, logic works, debate works, empathy works, humor works.

Methods: Logos, Ridicule, Empathy: All Work

2.8.2 Persuasion: Deep Canvassing Works

Methods: Deep Canvassing: Compassion Works

2.8.3 Persuasion: Evidence Works

General Evidence: Evidence Changes Minds and There's No Backfire Effect

Specific Evidence: Misinformation Isn't Stronger, Evidence Still Works

Specific Evidence: There's No Major Partisan Cue Effect, Evidence Still Works

Contrary Study: MMR-Autism Link

2.8.4 Delivery Method: Debate Is An Effective Educational Tool

Debate: Excellent and Nuanced Video by Jangles Sciencelad

Strength of Debate: Educational Debate Achieves Deep Knowledge

Strength of Debate: Debate Encourages Better Critical Thinking [Stronger Evidence]

Strength of Debate: Debate Encourages Better Critical Thinking [Weaker Evidence]

Strength of Debate: Educates Viewers and Encourage Self-Education [Medium-strength Evidence]

Strength of Debate: Encourages Confidence [Medium-strength Evidence]

Strength of Debate: Critical Thinking Enables Debate Victories

Limit of Debate: Adversarial Debate Has Lower Respect, Satisfaction, Participation, Higher Hesitation [Stronger Evidence]

Limit of Debate: Higher Confidence [Far Weaker Evidence Than Above]

Limit of Debate: Alleged Gender Exclusivity (See Also Mumtaz as Counter-Example)

Limit of Debate: Encourages Entrenchment of Positions Defended

Philosophy Education: Effective in One RCT, Ineffective in One RCT

2.8.5 Delivery Method: Infotainment / Edutainment / Soft News

Summary

Literature Reviews: Effects on Democracy: Probably Slightly Negative, but Not Apocalyptic

Literature Reviews: Soft News Effects: Hard to Generalize

Literature Review: Typology of Effects: Four Oprah Effects, Distinction BTWN Types

Scope Over Time and Space: Mixed Effects (Probably Getting Softer Over Time)

Social Media Effects on Political Participation: Possibly Positive

Diversity of Choice Effects on Knowledge / Turnout Among Different Types of People: Mixed

Social Media Effects on Political Knowledge Among Different Types of People: Mixed

Infotainment Effects on Cynicism: Mixed

2.8.6 Delivery Method: Breadtube: Efficacy, Harassment, Etc.

Video Essays as a Form of Debate (See Also Description of Shaun in Lewis Marwick Partin 2021)

Effective Content Formats

Harassment: Causes of Harassment From Rightist Videos to Leftist Videos

Parasociality: Importance of Engagement/Entertainment in Getting Eyeballs

2.8.7 Delivery Methods: Other Effective Methods

Delivery: Op-Eds

Delivery: Tv News

Delivery: Forum Posts

2.8.8 Cancel Culture / Call-out Culture

Against Call-Out Culture as It Exists

Toward Growth Culture

On the Psychology of Call-Out Culture

2.8.9 Background: Standpoint Epistemology / Standpoint Theory Good

Cognitive Biases Favor the Powerful

2.8.10 Background: Shame Has Mixed Efficacy

Shame and Defensiveness in Anti-Racism

3.0.0 Criminal Justice System [axis One]

3.1.0 Policing

3.1.1 Summary

Concepts

Overpoliced but Underprotected: too much policing of small crimes, too little crime prevention overall

3.1.2 Todo

Scrape for Sources

Wandering Officers

Recidivism

Conservative Video

Spending

Todo

3.1.3 Police Funding And Defund The Police

Police Officers Over Time

Defund the Police: LAPD Meme Bad

Polling

3.1.4 Police Diversity And Police Brutality

3.1.5 Violent Crime And Police Brutality / Police Killings

International Comparisons

National Correlational Studies: Violent Crime vs Police Killings

International Correlational Studies: Homicides vs Police Killings Over Countries

3.1.6 More Cops Less Crime / Overpoliced And Underprotected: True But Complicated

Summary

More cops means less violent crime -- but at significant public expense, especially given the egregious underfunding of US welfare system. Re-allocation of cop time to *street presence* (or replaced/supplemented by community volunteers) may have similar effects.

Todo

Todo Other Ways to Reduce Violence Than Cops

Other Solutions

More Cops Less Murder: Causal Evidence: Chalfin [Todo Xxx]

Literature Review: Early Studies Failed to Demonstrate Causality & Suffered From Endogeneity of Crime and Police Hiring

Causal Studies: Less Crime in General: Levitt 1997 (Elections as IV) and Followup (Firefighters and Municipal Workers as IV)

Causal Studies: Less Crime in General: Natural Experiments From the Terror Alert Level

Causal Studies: Literature Review & Instrumental Variable

Correlational Studies: Less Domestic Violence

Mechanism: Not Through Incapacitation but Through Deterrence

Mechanism: Not Through Incapacitation but Through Deterrence: Broken Windows: Empirically Invalid

Implications: Spend Less on Prisons and More on Cops

Implications: Reorient Cop Time Usage

Implication: More Workers, Shorter Shifts: Fight Fatigue [Xxx Reread]

Political Causes: Todo Reread

Clearance Rate

Underpolicing: Clearance Rate & Reporting Rate

Todo: Black Lives Matter Protests -- Todo Reread XXX -- See Published Responses, Eg the Gun Store Location Study (FFL)

3.2.0 Uncategorized

3.2.1 Rehabilitation Vs Retribution

Recidivism Over Time

Rehabilitation: Recidivism Decrease: Todo

Retribution: Recidivism Increase

Retribution Is Ineffective: Three Strike Laws

Recidivism: Negative Effects

3.2.2 Juvenile Incarceration

Effects on Crime

Effects on Economics

3.2.3 Drug Decriminalization In Portugal (2001-2008) Slightly More Conservative (2009-current)

Key Articles

read Hughes and Stevens 2012 (which argues that Portugues drug policy was neither a "resounding success" nor a "disastrous failure", but a modestly successful policy) and Rego et al 2021 (which explains the origins and context of Portuguese drug law)

Portugal Decriminalization in 2001

Todo

2001 usage data: Balsa, C., Farinha, T., Urbano, C. and Francisco, A. (2004), Inque rito Nacional ao Consumo de Substa ncias Psicoactivas na populacxa o portuguesa 2001. Lisboa: CEOS, Investigacxo es Sociolo gicas, Faculdade de Cie ncias Sociais e Humanas, Universidade Nova de Lisboa.

2007 usage data: Balsa, C., Vital, C., Urbano, C. and Pascueiro, L. (2007), II Inque rito Nacional ao Consumo de Substa ncias Psicoactivas na Populacxa o Portuguesa 2007, Lisboa: CEOS, Investigacxo es Sociolo gicas, Faculdade de Cie ncias Sociais e Humanas, Universidade Nova de Lisboa.

see more recent ESPAD reports: Hibell, B., Guttormsson, U., Ahlstro m, S., Balakireva, O., Bjarnason, T., Kokkevi, A. and Kraus, L. (2009), The 2007 ESPAD Report: Substance Use Among Students in 35 European Countries. Stockholm: Sweden, The Swedish Council for Information on Alcohol and Other Drugs (CAN).

Todo Grab These Stats

Drug Use Rates

Drug Death Rates

Economic Costs

Criminal Justice Burden

Todo

3.2.4 Drug Legalization And Drug Decriminalization: Other Examples

Marijuana Legalization

Health

Crime

Colorado Legalization in 2014 (Jan 1)

Public Opinion

3.2.5 "kill Drug Dealers": Philippines Example

Summary

Prices

Drug Use Rates

Criminal Justice Burden

3.2.6 "kill Drug Dealers": Northern Ireland Example

Todo

Drug Use

3.2.7 Death Penalty

Financial Harms

Effect on Crime: Consensus

Effect on Crime: Recidivism

Innocence Rate

Psychological Harms

Consciousness During Execution

3.2.8 Stranger Rape

3.2.9 Asset Forfeiture

3.2.10 Police Psychological Issues

Police Are More Likely to Abuse Their Spouses

4.0.0 Economics [axis Two]

4.1.0 Inequality And Immobility

4.1.1 Scope Of Inequality And Immobility

All: Usa

Wealth Inequality: Usa

Wealth Inequality: Global

Wealth Inequality: Stocks

Income Inequality

Income Mobility

Income Inequality Over Time

4.1.2 Causes Of Inequality And Immobility

Cyclical Poverty and Childhood Poverty

Education Inequality

Income Inequality

Unmeritocratic Pay at the Top

Luck

Wasteful Consumption / Frivolous Consumption

Rise of Superstar Incomes (Probably Not Based on Genuine Productive Differences)

4.1.3 Piketty's R>g

"""Using a measure of portfolio returns to compute r minus g in Piketty s notation, we uncover an important finding. Even calculated from more granular asset price returns data, the same fact reported in Piketty (2014) holds true for more countries, more years, and more dramatically: namely r >> g. [....] Benhabib and Bisin (2016) show that in a wide class of models featuring stochastic returns to wealth, a higher gap between r and g increases the Pareto index of the steady-state wealth distribution, making it more unequal. [....] Our research speaks directly to the relationship between r, the rate of return on wealth, and g, the growth rate of the economy, that figures prominently in the current debate on inequality. One robust finding in this paper is that r >> g: globally, and across most countries, the weighted rate of return on capital was twice as high as the growth rate in the past 150 years."""

4.1.4 Solutions For Inequality And Immobility

General

Economics

Education

Health Mobility

Labor Policy

4.1.5 Effects Of Inequality And Immobility

Weaker Economic Growth (Meta-studies)

Weaker Economic Growth (Simple Studies)

Increased Crime

Decreased Home Ownership

Psychological Outcomes

Increased Death

4.1.6 Inheritance: Scope

Scope

Scope at Death

Scope by Income

4.1.7 Inheritance: Effects

Wealth Inequality From Inheritance

Wasted

Reduced Labor-Force Participation

Wealth Inequality From Genetics

Happiness

4.1.8 Effects Of Heterogenous Preferencs On Income Inequality And Wealth Inequality

Summary

Libertarian and conservative intellectuals usually explain income inequality and wealth inequality through heterogenous preferences (differences in desire and behavior). Usually, they state that the rich have "long" time preferences (they have a smaller discount rate, and thus value future consumption more, so they are more "patient" and don't "fritter away" their wealth) and lower risk aversion (which allows them to take on higher-yield but higher-risk investment, which results in higher long-term income and wealth). However, these factors can only explain a small portion of actual wealth inequality.

Literature Reviews

Models With Evaluation Against Real World Data

4.2.0 Public Housing Is Good

4.2.1 Housing First Vs Staircase Models

Models: Overview and Contrast

4.2.2 Housing First: HUD-VASH

The United States achieved substantial success in nearly halving homelessness among veterans by attaining the same sort of political consensus and providing resources for example, greatly expanding a scattered-site supported housing program for veterans called the HUD-VASH program2 . Without Finland s social benefit programs, the United States would need to rely more heavily on an expansion of housing subsidies, particularly the Housing Choice Voucher program. HUD-U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs (VA) Supportive Housing (HUD-VASH) Program

4.2.3 Housing First: Finland Success

Todo

In its greater reliance on congregate as well as scattered-site housing models, the Finnish approach to Housing First differs from the evidence-based programs pioneered by Pathways to Housing in New York City (Tsemberis, Gulcur, and Nakae, 2004) and again proven successful for people with serious mental illnesses in the five-city Canadian At Home/Chez Soi experiment (Aubry et al., 2016; Stergiopoulos et al., 2015).

Finland: Trends Over Time

Finland: Models Over Time

Finland: Construction

Finland: Integration

4.2.4 Voluntary Homelessness Is Very Small

Todo

Most Homeless People Wish to Obtain Housing

^ Stark 1983 publication: p570-591

Most Homeless People Are Currently or Chronically Disabled

Many Homeless People Are Veterans

4.2.5 Suburbs Bad

Increased Obesity

Suburbs Increase Expense: Halifax Data

Suburbs Decreased Depression

4.2.6 Building New Housing: Yimby / Nimby And Gentrification

Summary

Local Rent Prices: Declines

Local Rent Prices + Submarkets: Bigger Declines on High-Rent Properties, Zero or Increases on Low-Rent

Migration Chains

4.3.0 Private Charity And Voluntarism

4.3.1 Private Social Spending: Not The Same As Charity!

Summary

Private social spending is not the same as private charity. Private social spending includes any spending by individuals on "social" goods (education, healthcare, etc.), whether voluntary or compelled (as by Obamacare's insurance mandate).

Scope: Private Social Spending

Effects on Inequality

4.3.2 Scope Of Private Charity

Summaries of Scope

Data Sources for Scope Over Time: Giving Usa

Data Sources for Scope Over Time: Others

Relief Only [TODO]

Fraternal Beneficiary Societies (Mutual Aid)

Data Sources: International

4.3.3 Private Charity Todo

Todo

Todo Todo

4.3.4 Private Charity Progressivity: Charity Increases With Income

Longitudinal: Charity Is Not a Damper on Inequality

Longitudinal: Long-Term Effects of Charity Now on Charity Growth

Longitudinal: Why Are Megarich a Higher Share of Charity?

Progressivity by Income: Substantial

Progressivity by Wealth: None

4.3.5 Private Charity Effects: Charity Does Not Reduce Poverty And Inequality, Public Spending Does

Public Charity's Importance in the Usa

Public Spending Reduces Inequality

Private Charity Cannot Poverty

Private Charity Cannot Solve Personal Medical Finance

Private Charity Scope by Sector

Private Charity Mostly Goes Toward Anti-Poverty Sectors (Including Indirect Anti-Poverty Measures)

Religious Private Charity Mostly Does Not Go to Meeting Basic Needs of the Poor

4.3.6 Private Charity Is Procyclical Or Noncyclical (bad), Public Spending Is Countercyclical (good)

Private Charity Is Procyclical (Reduces in Recessions: Bad)

Public Spending Is Countercyclical (Increases in Recessions: Good)

4.3.7 Private Charity And Public Clout

Polling on Importance of Charity

Super-Rich Use Charity to Convert Financial Capital Into Social Capital

Super-Rich Are Often Geniuses at Marketing

4.3.8 Public Charity: Crowding Out Or Crowding In From Government Support?

Summary

This literature examines whether *direct* government support of a particular charity crowds out private donations to that charity. It finds that this crowd-out effect exists, but its size is hard to quantify. A second crowd-out effect, of government giving toward a particular *cause* (such as social spending toward the poor) does not exist.

Summary of Meta-Analyses: Evidence Inconclusive, Leans Crowd-Out

Meta-Analyses

Heterogeneity Across Donors and Across Sectors

Crowd-Out of General Government Giving Does NOT Exist

4.3.9 Public Policy On Private Charity

Policy Proposals

Taxes and Charitable Contributions

4.4.0 Social Spending: Redistribution Is Good And Lifting People From Poverty Is Good

4.4.1 General Facts On Welfare And Social Spending

Taxation vs Predistribution

Scope: Detailed, Usa, Recent

Deservedness

Demographics

Non-Wasteful Consumption (See Section in "Causes of Inequality and Immobility")

Historical Emergence

Voting Empowered Social Spending

Why Didn't Private Charity Take Off?

Effects on Growth: On Net, All Programs Combined Have a ~Zero Effect on Growth

4.4.2 Data Sources

Very Long Run (Since ~1500) -- Also Includes Private Charity in Very Long Run

Semi Long Run (Since ~1850)

Long Run (Since ~1950)

4.4.3 Policy Proposals: Basic Income

Progressivity

Economics Benefits

Social Benefits

Health Benefits

Psychological Benefits

4.4.4 Social Spending And Business Formation

Social Spending Enables Business Formation: Evidence From Social Health Insurance

Social Spending Enables Business Formation: Evidence From Social Food Income

4.5.0 Healthcare: Public Single Provider (left Of Public Single Payer)

4.5.1 Medicare For All

Expense: Good Evidence

Expense: Bad Evidence

Efficacy

Satisfaction

4.5.2 Healthcare Spending: Aggregate US Vs World

Measures

Causes: Prices

Causes: Wastage

Causes: Administration

Fraud: Private vs Public

4.5.3 Healthcare Outcomes: Aggregate US Vs World

Quality: Objective

Quality: Subjective

Finance

Outcomes: Mortality

Outcome: Doctor Information

Outcome: Lifespan

Outcome: Wait Times

Outcome: Cancer Survival

Alternative Explanations

4.5.4 Payment Scheme: Terminology

Schemes

Fee For Service (FFS): This model pays doctors per service provided.

Capitation: This model pays doctors "per capita" (per person in doctor's panel in a period of time). Usually seen in HMO plans. Because doctors receive a flat fee per patient, but must pay this encourages

Direct Primary Care (DPC):

Integrated Health Model (IHM): This model integrates health insurance and health workers. Example is Kaiser Permanente.

Terms

panel = group of patients seen by a doctor; typically 1500-2000 in FFS/Capitation/IHM systems and 500 in DPC systems

Abbreviations

PCP = Primary Care Physician, the doctor you go to when you have a tummy hurty

ED = Emergency Department, the doctor you go to when you step on a rusty naily

HMO = Health Maintenance Organization, a plan which usually does NOT cover out-of-network care and requires referrals and a PCP

PPO = Preferred Provider Organization, a plan which usually DOES cover out-of-network care

PPO = Preferred Provider Organization, a plan which usually does NOT cover out-of-network care

HDHP = High Deductible Health Plan, a plan with high deductibles and high out-of-pocket limits

CDHP = Consumer-Driven Health Plan, a plan with high deductibles and high out-of-pocket limits (like HDHP) with an added health savings account (HSA) or health reimbursement account (HRA) to reduce tax burden

PMPM = per member, per month; usually part of capitation schemes

PPPM = per patient, per month; usually part of capitation schemes

4.5.5 Payment Scheme: Capitation

4.5.6 Payment Scheme: Direct Primary Care

Limits of Causal Evidence on Quality

^ of course, this and Adashi Clodfelter George 2018 suggest that the benefits from DPC are not a result of the payment scheme, they're a result of the shift toward primary care and away from emergency care and specialist care

Existing Quality Measurements

Existing Cost Measurements

4.5.7 Payment / Provider Scheme: Integrated Care Model

Summary

4.5.8 Evidence-based Medicine: Rare

Most Medical Practice Is Based on Weak Evidence

Solutions

4.6.0 Education: Public

4.6.1 School Vouchers

Effectiveness on Performance

Effectiveness on Cost

4.6.2 Public Schools Outperform Private Schools

Scope of Private vs Public Schools

Private Schools Richer

Cost of Public vs Private Schools

Poor Students Cost More

Quality of Private Schools: Correlation With Controls

4.6.3 Religious Schools Are Similar To Nonreligious Schools

Meta-Study: Religious Schools Slightly Better Than Public Schools

Large Dutch Sample: Religious Schools Not Significantly Differnt Than Public Schools

4.6.4 Education Policies: Homework Good

Performance

Attitudes

4.6.5 Education Policies: Teacher Performance Pay Good

Effective: Meta-Studies

Effective: Meta-Studies: Which Types Most Effective

Effective: High-Quality Studies

Ineffective

4.6.6 Education Policies: Progressive Teaching Methods

Historical Models: Rome, American Colonies

Progressive Education: Literature Review

Alternative Model: Ferrer

4.6.7 Education Policies: Progressive Teaching Methods: Grading Bad

Grading and Performance

Bias in Grading

4.6.8 Education Policies: Mandatory Schooling / Compulsory Schooling Good

Scrape Sources From Here

Existing Law by State

Scope of Problem

Mortality Reduction: Causal Evidence

Attendance Increase: Causal Evidence

Bad Policy: Punitive Responses Against Students for Truancy

Positive Externalities From Education

4.6.9 Education Policies: Summer Vacations Probably Not That Bad

Summer Vacation Effects on Learning: Early Studies

Summer Vacation Effects on Learning: Later Studies: No Major Effect, No Effect by Socioeconomics or Race

Summer Learning Reform: Policy Effects

4.6.10 Violence And Bullying At School [unformatted, Reread]

Violence in Schools / Bullying

4.6.11 Education Outcomes: Iq

Education Improves Iq

Iq Improves Education

4.6.12 College Degrees Are Worthwhile

College Degrees Over Time

Return on Investment

Economic Trends

Low-Quality Degrees / "Basket Weaving" / "Humanities Bad" / "Liberal Arts Bad"

4.6.13 General Education Courses Have Utility

General Education Increased Critical Thinking

General Education Increased Knowledge

General Education Increased Tolerance

4.6.14 College Tuition Increases Are Caused By Decreased State Subsidies

Declines in State Subsidies Can Explain Cost Increases

Administrative Bloat Cannot Explain Cost Increases

Construction Cannot Explain Cost Increases

State Loans Cannot Explain Cost Increases [Unformatted, Reread] (Ancap Talking Point)

4.6.15 American Education System

Results

Spending: Total

Spending: Progressive

Outcomes: Not Progressive

Spending: Non-Teacher

4.6.16 Education And Ideology

Ideology Effects on Education

Education Effects on Epistemology

4.6.17 Academia Bias Political Bias In Academia

Literature Review

Education Moves Students Left, Not Teachers

Political Orientation by Field

Lack of Bias in Grading

4.7.0 Economic Planning: Democratic Central Planning Or Indicative Planning?

Systems

4.7.1 Privatization: Empirics On Efficiency

Multi-Sector Studies: State-Owned Perform Comparably

Multi-Sector Studies: State-Owned Perform Comparably

Internet: State-Owned Perform Better

Concrete: More Competitors Increases Gross Value Added

4.7.2 Fire Departments: Against Privatization

Note

Some of the main examples cited in favor of privatization are massive, near-monopolistic firms who face little competitive pressure. For example, Denmark's Falck (described as a "business empire") isn't paid by individual consumers, but by municipalities via long-term contracts that cover huge areas, and it provides not just fire but 7 other major public services for ~2/3 of the country. Just as importantly, only one study compares the efficacy of public and private departments -- and that study considered Brazilian jungle fires, where it is not all obvious that the land protected by private and public agencies is similar.

Summary

Falck High Market Power Citation

Private Firms Often [1] Combine Full-Time and Part-Time Firefighters and [2] Use Joint Production

Fire Protection Effectiveness by Country: Damages, Spending, Deaths

Failed Privatization Efforts With the Rural/Metro Company

One of the Stronger Studies (Considers Quality) but Cannot Assume That Land Serviced Is Equivalent

Libertarian Studies: Kristensen 1983

Libertarian Studies: Guardiano 1992

"""The chief study examined is the University City Science Center's 1989 analysis of the privately operated Scottsdale (Arizona) Fire Department."""

Myth: 1700s-1800s Fire Departments Stood and Let Buildings Burn

4.7.3 Economic Planning: Empirics On Cyclical Crises

History

Stimulus Avoiding 2007-08 Recession

Usa: Bailout

Political Economy [Xxx Reread]

Effects: Mortality

4.7.4 Economic Planning: Theory On Computation And Efficiency

Theory: Critiques

Theory: Theoretical Computability (Economic Calculation Problem)

Theory: Practical Computability (Economic Calculation Problem)

Theory: Natural Resources

Theory: Double Marginalization

4.7.5 Economic Planning: Theory On Ltv (see Ltv Section For Critiques)

Theory: Nonhomogenous Labor

Theory: Labor Vouchers

4.7.6 Innovation Across Countries

Summary

There is no strong evidence that socdem countries have reduced innovativeness; if anything, the reverse might be true.

Social Democracy Encourages R&d

Social Democracy Can Encourage Startups

4.7.7 Innovation And Competition

Where Innovation Occurs: Disproportionately in Smaller Firms

Rates of R&d in Different Industries

Profit Motive and Bad Innovation

4.7.8 Innovation And Privatization: Weak Evidence

Evidence From China Suggests Privatization Increases Patents

4.7.9 Innovation And Welfare: Decent Evidence

Innovation Tied to Childhood Experiences and Location

4.7.10 Innovation And Pharmaceuticals: Public Sector Efficient

United States Not More Innovative

Canadian Pharmaceuticals Spend Proportionally More on R&d

Public Sector Efficient

4.7.11 Innovation: Patents

Patents May Cause/Protect Innovation

Patents Correlate With Innovation

4.8.0 Labor Market Policies: State Intervention Often Justified

4.8.1 Cooperatives And Mutuals: Scope

Scope: Saturation

Scope: Employment

Scope: Revenue

4.8.2 Cooperatives And Mutuals: Efficiency

Efficiency

Scarcity ("Why Don't More Exist?")

Strength & Survival

4.8.3 Cooperatives And Mutuals: Community Benefits

Community

Reduction in Racism

4.8.4 Unions

Stock Value

Safety

4.8.5 Minimum Wage: Strong Evidence In Favor Of

Employment Effect: Consensus

Employment Effect: Meta-Analyses: Small Effect

Employment Effect: Neumark Meta-Study: Large

Employment Effect: Neumark Literature Review: Large

Median Wage

Employment Effects: Long-Term Effects Small

Monopsony: General Effects

Monopsony: Minimum Wages

Reduced Poverty

Reduced Inequality

Inflation Increases but Consumption Increases About as Much

Increased Efficiency

Reduced Suicide

4.8.6 Exploitation

Output vs Pay

Productivity vs Pay Over Time: Bad Argument, Flawed Methodology

Labor Share Over Time

Wage Theft

Causes

4.8.7 Shorter Work Weeks & Reduced Work Time

Empirics From the Ussr

Importance of Leisure

Excessive Work Time Is Harmful

Much of Work Time Is Wasted

4.8.8 Employment Protection Legislation

Epl Reduces Earnings Losses Associated With Unemployment

unemployment scarring = earnings losses due to unemployment = the difference between the earnings change among workers experiencing unemployment and the estimated earnings change they would've had if they had not experienced unemployment

Epl Has a Near-Zero Effect on Employment

Shifts in Epl Have a Near-Zero Effect on Growth

4.8.9 Automation

Scope

Solutions: Worker Retraining

4.9.0 Regulations: State Intervention Often Justified

4.9.1 Regulations

General

Environmental Regulations

Modern Examples of Companies Choosing Profits Over Safety

Bad Studies

4.9.2 Clean Air Act

Overall Economic Benefits

Blood Lead: Reduction

Nitrogen Oxide, Sulphur Dioxide, and Sulphate: Reduction

Nitrogen Oxide, Sulphur Dioxide, and Sulphate: Economic Benefits

Mercury: Reduction

Mercury: Economic Benefits

Volatile Organic Compounds: Reductions

4.10.0 Taxation

4.10.1 General Data About Taxation

Laffer Curve Bad

Trickle Down Bad

Capital Flight / Wealth Flight Appears to Be Small in the USA

Tax Havens Are Enormous

Us Taxes Are Progressive

4.10.2 Wealth Taxes Good

Scope

Scope Over Time: Wealth Taxes Have Been Rolled Back

Wealth Tax Evasion

Wealth Flight

Illiquid Wealth / Aggravated Millionaires: Set a Higher Bar

Progressivity

4.10.3 Corporate Taxes Good

Growth Rates

Progressivity

4.10.4 Automatic Taxes / Pre-populated Tax Forms Good

4.10.5 Opinion Polls

Income Taxes

Income Taxes: Polls Among the High-Income

Wealth Taxes

Estate Taxes

4.11.0 Austrian Economics

4.11.1 Misesian School Of Austrian Economics: Praxeology & Anti-empiricism

Summary

Austrian economists routinely assert that we should prefer "praxeology" (ie, deductive "logic" about how they think humans behave) over statistical measures of how humans actually behave (ex: behavioral economics).

Friedman Quote on Praxeology

Mises Quote: Rejecting the Idea of Empirical Testing

Mises Quote: Rejecting Actual Empirical Testing

Murphy, Barnett, and Block 2010 Quote: Economic Theory Is Geometry!

Vedder 1997 Quote: If the Theory's Prediction Is at Odds With the Stats, the Stats Are Wrong!

4.11.2 Randian Economics: Objectivism And First Principles

Friedman Quote About A=A

4.11.3 Hayekian Austrian Business Cycle Theory: Strong Evidence Against

Summary of ABCT

Structural Analysis: Young 2012

Empirics: Recession Size Should Predict Growth Size (It Doesn't)

Empirics: Monetary Policy Should Predict Recessions (It Doesn't)

Empirics: Relative Intermediate Prices Should Decrease (They Don't)

Empirics: Investment Should Go Down When Consumption Goes Up (It's the Opposite)

Empirics: Businesses Should Vary Daily Behavior With Interest Rates (They Don't)

4.11.4 Rothbardian Solution To Children: The Free Baby Market!

Ethical Child Starvation

Runaway Freedom

Free Baby Market

4.12.0 Miscellaneous Economics

4.12.1 Day Trading And Individual Investors

Terminology

individual investor = retail investor = a person who trades stocks

institutional investor = a firm that trades stocks

day trade = buying and selling 1 stock more than 3 times in a day

pattern day trader = PDT = an individual investor who day trades more than 5 times in a given 90 day period

high-frequency trader = HFT = HFI = an investor who buys and sells stocks more frequently than 1 trade/second, on average

Summary of Personal Finance Self-Help

Day Trading Unprofitable

Frequent Trading Unprofitable

Irrational Trading Behavior

No Evidence of Learning From Investors

4.12.2 Expected Utility Theory And Prospect Theory

Historical Papers

Expected Utility Maximization Bad

4.12.3 Asymmetric Information In Insurance Markets

Asymmetric Information in Insurance Markets

Testing

Solutions

4.12.4 Economic Freedom Index / Index Of Economic Freedom Is A Joke

Rule of Law

Government Size

Regulatory Efficiency

Market Openness

4.12.5 Trade

Consensus

Trade Imbalances

Elephant Graph

5.0.0 Race, Racialism, Scientific Racism, And Scientific Anti-racism [axis Three]

summary: Racialism, "scientific racism", and "race realism" describe the belief that human population groups have large, socially-important differences in phenotypes caused by differences in frequencies of genes. Scientific consensus and scientific evidence support scientific anti-racism, the position that genetic differences cause few socially-important differences between human populations.

5.1.0 Scientific Consensus Against Racialism

5.1.1 Lack Of Taboo Against Scientific Racist Research

Summary

Scientific racists constantly try to claim that their views are mainstream science, but are repressed by informal taboos on their research or formal institutional censorship of their views. In reality, scientific racist views are a small minority that frequently publishes and receives extensive media coverage (suggesting the "taboo" is not real). This minority is mostly ignored by the vast majority which thinks their views are absurd (which is why few people respond to scientific racist surveys).

Lack of Censorship

Failure of Race Realists to Demonstrate Taboo

5.1.2 Consensus In Genetics About Racialism: Against

Positions of Major Institutions

5.1.3 Consensus In Anthropology About Racialism: Against

Wagner 2016 Survey of Anthropologists: Scientific Racism Is a Fringe View

Chow-White and Green 2013 Survey of Publication Trends

Lieberman 2003 Survey of Publication Trends

5.1.4 Consensus In Psychology About Racialism: Shitty Surveys By Racialists

Rinderman Surveys and Their Flaws (Small Sample, Likely Strongly Biased Toward Scientific Racists)

Gottfredson's "Mainstream Statement on Intelligence": Hand-Picked Hereditarians, Still Could Only Get 52 Signatories

Snyderman and Rothman Surveys: Large Sample, High Response Rate, Probably Fairly Representative

5.1.5 Scope Among The General Public

Extent of Racialist Views Among Americans

5.1.6 Persuasion Against Racialist Views

5.1.7 Todo

Education Emphasizing the Real but Small Genetic Variation Among Human Groups Can Decrease Racist Views

Education Emphasizing Racial Differences in Disease Risk Can Increase Racist Views

Reducing Belief in Racial Essentialism: Genetics Education

. Specifically, one needs to understand that the causes of within-group variation in a trait can be different from the causes of between-group variation in that same trait. That is, even when trait differences between individuals within a population are entirely inherited, differences between populations can still be caused entirely by environmental factors (Feldman & Lewontin, 1975).

5.2.0 Genetics And Racialism

5.2.1 Genetic Variation And Racialism

Predictions: What Should We See if Divergent Selection Drove Racial Differences?

Variation: Mostly by Distance

Graphic Representation of Clinal Variation

Example of Clinal Variation: Lactose Persistence

Example of Clinal Variation: Sickle Cell Anemia

Variation: Mostly Shared

Variation: Most SNP Alleles Are Present in Most Populations (But Not All Are!)

Variation: FST

5.2.2 Genetic Identification And Racialism

History of Failure

Genetic Identification Has Low Importance

Genetic Identification Is Valid

Identification: Tang and Risch 2005 Is a Weak Study

Identification: Neanderthal DNA

5.3.0 Intelligence And Racialism

5.3.1 Evolution Of Intelligence And Racialism: Genetics

Evolution Measured Through Gwas

Background on Limits of Gwas and Race

Evolution Measured Through Gwama: Selection Measured With Sroh

Genetic Diversity and Intelligence

5.3.2 Evolution Of Intelligence And Racialism: Cold Winter Theory

Todo

The evolutionary reasoning has also been critiqued by research that casts doubt on the validity of the Cold Winters theory (MacEachern, 2006; Pesta & Poznanski, 2014; Wicherts et al., 2010)

MacEachern, S. (2006). Africanist archaeology and ancient IQ: Racial science and cultural evolution in the twenty-first century. World Archaeology, 38(1), 72 92.

Pesta, B. J., & Poznanski, P. J. (2014). Only in America: Cold winters theory, race, IQ and well-being. Intelligence, 46, 271 274

Wicherts, J. M., Borsboom, D., & Dolan, C. V. (2010). Evolution, brain size, and the national IQ of peoples around 3000 years B.C. Personality and Individual Differences, 48, 104 106.

Anthropological Data: Climate Not Key Driver

Maps of Temperature and Snowfall

5.3.3 Environmental Influences On Intelligence And Racialism

Environment: Religion

Environment: Abuse

Environment: Segregation (Response to "Even High-Income Black People" Have Low Scores)

Environment: Lead

5.3.4 Measures Of Racial Achievement Gap And Racialism

5.3.5 Measure: Education: Naep

Measure: Education: Brasil

Measure: Education: Dropout Rates

Measure: Twin Studies: Minnesota Transracial Adoption Study (MTRAS)

Measure: Twin Studies: General

Measure: Adoptee Studies: Recent

Measure: Flynn Effect

Measure: Sub-Saharan Africa

Measure: Black Scientists

5.3.6 Dysgenics: Claimed Decline In Intelligence Due To Genetics

Summary

Racialists claim that societies are getting dumber due to dysgenics: Dumb kids have more kids.

Metastudies

Genetic Data and Partner Selection ("idiocracy")

Norway

Measure: Long Term Iq Decline

5.4.0 Crime, Violence, And Racialism

see also the sections on racial bias against black people in the criminal justice system

5.4.1 Background And Theory Of Crime

Theory of Crime: Left Realism: Victims of Crime

Most Violent Crime Is Concentrated Among Few Individuals

Intelligence Impact on Crime: High

Age Impact on Crime: High

5.4.2 Socioeconomic Vs Subcultural Theory: Todo

5.4.3 Culture As Cause Of Crime: Strong Evidence: Example: Southern Culture Of Honor

Todo

Summary: Honor Permits Male Lethal Aggression to Defend One's Social Status

Materialist Explanation for Cultural Differences: Pastoral Animal Agriculture

Specific Evidence: Argument-Related Murders Higher, Felony-Related Murders Similar

Specific Evidence: Opinion Polls

Specific Evidence: Experimental Evidence

5.4.4 Culture As Cause Of Crime: Black Subculture Of Violence?

Conservative View

5.4.5 Crime Caused By Testosterone And Racialism

Subculture Theory May CAUSE Testosterone Differences

Evidence for Higher or Lower Testosterone Between Racial Groups Is Very Variable

5.4.6 Crime Caused By Genetics And Racialism

Genetics Impact on Crime: High

MAOA-uVNTR Warrior Gene: Terminology and Overview

MAOA-uVNTR: the region that regulates MAOA production; has multiple polymorphisms (types); can be shorter (lower-activity) or longer (higher-activity)

rs1465108: Variant 1 of uVNTR

rs909525: Variant 2 of uVNTR

rs2235186: Variant 3 of uVNTR

rs2072743: Variant 4 of uVNTR

rs1137070: Variant 5 of uVNTR

rs3027409: Variant 6 of uVNTR

rs6323: another MAOA polymorphism unrelated to uVNTR

MAOA-uVNTR Warrior Gene: Variation by Race

MAOA-uVNTR Warrior Gene: Small Impact on Violence: Odds Ratio About 1.1 (10% More)

MAOA-uVNTR Warrior Gene: Non-Metastudies

MAOA-uVNTR Warrior Gene: Greater Sensitivity to Childhood Maltreatment for Male Subjects

MAOA-uVNTR Warrior Gene: Greater Sensitivity to Childhood Maltreatment for Male Subjects

MAOA-uVNTR Warrior Gene: The Famous Typo

5.4.7 Crime Caused By Lead Environmental Pollution And Racialism

Lead Impact on Crime: High

Differences in Lead and Incarceration and Race

Differences in Lead Exposure

5.4.8 Other Environmental Causes Of Crime And Racialism

Environment: Violence and Parenting

Environment: Poverty & Segregation

Environment: Inequality

Environment: City Structure

Environment: Sports [Todo XXX Reread]

Environment: Many Environmental Causes

Environment: Wages

Environment: Employment [Todo XXX Reread]

Environment: Welfare

Environment: "Rap Music": Bullshit

5.4.9 Crime And Immigration In The Historic Usa

The Dastardly Irish

The Murderous Italians

Immigration Restriction Period in 1910's: Age

5.5.0 Other Major Claims By Racialists

5.5.1 Sports And Racialism

Athleticism and Media Bias: Relevant Meme

Basketball: Early Domination of the Sport by Jewish People Caused Commentators to Racializing Jewish People

Body Morphology and Athleticism

Athleticism and Background

Media Bias: Race and Performance

Athleticism and Racialism Among Respondents

5.5.2 Body Morphology And Racialism

Morphology: Height: No Strong Evidence of Difference, Especially at Younger Ages

Morphology: Skull Shape: No Obvious Reason to Suggest Selection

Morphology: Dick Size: No Evidence of Difference

5.5.3 Medicine And Racialism

Genetic Testing Superior

Bidil

Diabetes

Cystic Fibrosis

5.5.4 Politics And Racialism

Race as Predictor of Politics

Support for Hate Speech Laws by Race

Significance

Liberals

6.0.0 Public Opinion On Race [axis Three]

6.1.0 Public Opinion About Perceived Bigotry

6.1.1 Racism Against Nonwhite People: Large Decline Over Time

Multiple Questions: Support Declining

White Nationalism: Support Low & Flat Among White People

Immigration: Support Medium & Flat Among White People

6.1.2 Racism Against White People: Reported Slight Increase Over Time

Discrimination Against White People: Support Medium & Increasing Among White People

Racism Against White People: Support Middling and Increasing

6.1.3 Implicit Association Test: Bad Metric, No Better Than Explicit Racism Metrics

Implicit Association Test Is a Poor Metric

Implicit Bias Weakly Correlates With Explicit Bias

Implicit Bias Weakly Correlates With Actual Behavior

6.1.4 Implicit Racism: Low Levels With Slight Decrease Over Time

Implicit Racism: Declined Over Time

Experimental Evidence: Ingroup Bias: No Evidence of White Bias, Evidence for Black Bias

Experimental Evidence: Ingroup Bias: Evidence of Small Ingroup Bias in General

6.1.5 Intermixing: Large Increase Over Time

Interracial Marriage Has Become Dramatically More Common

Interracial Marriage Has Become Dramatically More Popular

Residential Segregation Has Become Slightly Less Common

6.1.6 Misc

Polls Against N Word Usage

6.2.0 Black Lives Matter: Mixed Evidence, Probably Increasing

6.2.1 Opinion Polling

Support Over Time

Support for Related Issues

Demographics of Protesters

Irony

6.2.2 Violence In Blm Protests: Small

Few Protests Were Violent

Violence Often Postceded State Intervention

Data Sources

Definitions

6.3.0 White Nationalism And Right-wing Populism In Usa: Mixed Evidence, Probably Decreasing

6.3.1 Hate Crimes: Rising, Correlated W/ Trumpism

Rushin and Edwards 2018: Good Study, Do Cite

Feinberg, Branton, and Martinez-Ebers 2018: Bad Study, Don't Cite

6.3.2 Support For Progresive Race Attitudes

Reparations: Gov to Descendants of Slaves

Reparations: Gov to Black Citizens

Reparations: Private Companies

Government Programs: Affirmative Action, School Funding, Civil Rights Laws

6.3.3 2016 Election

Bad Studies

6.3.4 Immigration And Trump Vote

Lower Immigration and Trade Imports Predicts Higher Trump Vote

Lower Immigration Predicts Higher Trump Vote

6.4.0 White Nationalism And Right-wing Populism In Europe: Mixed Evidence, Probably Rising

6.4.1 Europe Overall

Elections

guardian article w/ good graph? xxx reread

Public Opinon Polls

6.4.2 White Racism In Germany

6.4.3 White Racism In France

Elections

Polls on Immigration

6.5.0 Black Nationalism And Black Separatism In Us

6.5.1 Popularity Of Black Nationalism And Black Separatism

Explicit Black Socioeconomic Independence

Studies Todo

7.0.0 Benefits Of Diversity [axis Three]

7.1.0 Diversity Improves Various Outcomes

7.1.1 Social Trust And Diversity

Specific Studies

Metastudies: Ethnic Diversity

Metastudies: Contact Theory

7.1.2 Economic Performance And Diversity

Diverse Firms Perform Better

7.1.3 Affirmative Action

Mechanism: Summary

Mismatch: Effect on Graduation Rates: Summary

Mismatch: Effect on Graduation Rates

Alternatives to Affirmative Action: Percent Plans

8.0.0 Tolerance: Racial Biases And Their Outcomes [axis Three]

8.1.0 Racial Bias In The Criminal Justice System

8.1.1 Courts And Racial Bias

Longer Sentences for All Crime Types

Longer Sentences From Republicans

Evidence for Racial Bias

8.1.2 Police And Racial Bias

Police Killings Are Racially Biased

Swat Raids Are Racially Biased

Drug Arrests Are Racially Biased

Common Response: "Black People Underreport Drug Use More Than White People Do"; This Is Partially Correct but Very Insufficient to Explain Drug Arrest Gap

8.2.0 Racial Bias In Economic Social Relations

Summary

Many conservatives claim that "black people had it better under segregation", "before civil rights", "before LBJ", or "before the welfare state". The evidence for this is weak and the evidence against it is strong.

Intergenerational Mobility: Upward Trend

Intergenerational Mobility: In the Long Run Since Slavery

Intergenerational Mobility: Explaining the Recent Flatline of Mobility: Society Got Less Equal!

Literacy in the Long Run

Unemployment

Single Motherhood and Extra-Marital Birth

Todo Review Reread XXX

8.2.2 Causes: Failure Of Reconstruction

Black Immigrants Are a Significant but Small Proportion of Current Black Americans

Promises Made

Failure of Immediate Land Reform

Failure of Obtaining Back Pay

Failure of Homesteading Acts

8.2.3 Causes: Racial Discrimination

Hiring

Marriage

8.2.4 Causes: Ethnic Segregation

Causal Evidence: Desegregation

Correlational Evidence: Against Positive Enclave Effects

8.2.5 Causes: The Legacy Of Slavery

8.2.6 The Great Migration Spurred White Backlash, Which Now Hurts Black Men

8.2.7 Not Causes

Conspicious Consumption (Consumerism, Jewelry, Bling)

8.2.8 What About Asian People?

8.2.9 Immigrant Benefit TODO

Not All Asian People

Recent Immigrants

Formal Comparison of Black and Asian Endowments: No Asian Advantage Beyond Starting Endowments

8.3.0 Other Areas With Racial Bias

8.3.1 Racial Disparities In Elections

Racial Discrimination in Voting

8.4.0 Health Outcomes Of Racial Bias

8.4.1 Racial Discrimination Worsens Environmental Determinants Of Health [environmental Racism]

Air Pollution Exposure by Race

Air Pollution Mortality

Toxic Waste Site Exposure

Industrial Facility Exposure

Causes of Worse Environmental Health

Reported Racial Discrimination Is Not Just Neighborhood Effects

8.4.2 Experienced Racial Discrimination Worsens Health Behaviors

Racial Discrimination Predicts Greater Cigarette Smoking

9.0.0 Tolerance: Sex, Sexuality, And Gender [axis Three]

9.1.0 General Lgbtq

9.1.1 Fun Fact (VERY Solid Science) (strongest Evidence)

9.1.2 Stigma And Mortality Among Queer People

More Stigma, More Mortality

Hate Crimes Fell After Hate Crime Laws and Nondiscrimination Laws Were Enacted

9.1.3 Conversion Therapy Is Ineffective

Terminology

SOCE = sexual orientation change efforts

Anecdotes

Consensus: Apa Report

Efficacy: Spitzer 2001

Efficacy: Byrd 2002 Metastudy

Outcomes: Psychological Harms

9.1.4 Comorbidity Of Queer Types (non-heterosexuality Correlates With Gender Nonconformity)

9.2.0 Transgender: General Information

9.2.1 Demography Of Self-identified Transgender People

Percent of Population

By Gender: Surveys -- Roughly Equal Female:male

By Gender: Legal Gender -- Roughly Equal Female:male

By Gender: Referalls -- Roughly 4X Female:male

By Age at Identification

By Sexuality: Very Queer

Pronouns

Military Status

Homelessness

Proportion of Adults Who Know Trans People

Gender Is Sex at Birth

Pronouns

Polling on Mental Illness

Polling on Cultural Acceptance / Sin

Polling on Protections for Trans People

Bathrooms

Adoption

Surgery

Children

9.2.3 Sexual And Romantic Attraction To Transgender People

Proportion Dating a Trans Person

Proportion Willing to Date a Trans Person

Self-Reported Rating of Passing / Clocking / Attractiveness

Age of Trans Feelings

Transition Status: Usa: Overall

Transition Status: Usa: Afab

Transition Status: Usa: Amab

Transition Status: Sweden: HRT vs SRS

Impacts of Perceived Gender on Perceived Attractiveness

9.3.0 Transgender: Biological Causes For Gender Nonconformity

9.3.1 Consensus: Gender Nonconformity Is Not A Mental Illness

Consensus: Not Mental Illness and Should Treat W/ Affirming Therapy

Debunk: American College of Pediatricians

9.3.2 Biological Causes: Brain Structure, Brain Function

Summary

The evidence on whether trans brains align more closely with the identified-as sex or the natal sex is mixed. Most evidence suggests trans brains lean toward their identified-as sex; however, conflicting evidence might suggest that trans brains are "in the middle".

Summary of the Literature

Brain Structure: Literature Review of Studies Before Hormones

Brain Structure: Literature Review of All Studies

Brain Function: Literature Review of Studies Before Hormones

Brain Structure and Function: Conflicting Evidence, Non-Binary Possibility

List of Genetic and Natal Intersex Conditions

Biological Sex: Graph

Genetics: Rare Sex Chromosome Setups

lower bound sum: 1/2000+1/2000+1/2000+1/80000+1/100000+1/200000 = 0.15275% = 1 in 654

Genetics: Rare Sex Hormone Setups

Genetics: Non-Normal Congenital Setups

9.3.3 Autogynephilia

Autogynephilia in Cis Women Using Autogynephilia Scale for Women

Summary of Blanchard's Earliest Evidence

Blanchard Core Autogynephilia Scale

Replication of Blanchard's Core Autogynephilia Scale

Critique of Blanchard's Causal Claim

Critique of Measurement of Autogynephilia

"""Veale et al. (2008) also found that cisgender women frequently report FEFs, with 52% experiencing them at levels comparable to Blanchard s autogynephilic group (see also Moser, 2010)."""

Prevalence of Embodiment Fantasies Among the General Public

9.3.4 Transracialism

Social Acceptance in Controversial Hypatia Article

9.4.0 Transgender: Treatments For Gender Dysphoria

9.4.1 Background: Model Treatments

Methods: Dutch Approach vs Affirmative Approach

The Dutch Model Saw a Massive Increase of Adolescents Patients but No Decrease of Patients Showing GD, Suggesting High Rates of Untreated GD

9.4.2 Social Affirmation: Evidence For Adolescents

Literature Review: Affirmation Works

Name Acceptence Affirmation Benefits

Parental Affirmation Benefits

Affirmation Does Not Push or Lock Children Into Their Socially Transitioned Identity

9.4.3 Social Affirmation: Evidence For Adults

Access to Inclusive Bathrooms Reduces Suicide

Anti-Transgender Violence Reduces Suicide

Social Affirmation Reduces Suicide

9.4.4 Puberty Blockers And Puberty Suppression

Literature Review

Todo

^ todotodotodo very important

Puberty Blockers Reduce Suicidality to That of Cis Youth

Puberty Blockers Reduce Lifetime Suicidal Ideation by Many Times

Bone Density

Non-Useful Data: Trans Youth Care Study

9.4.5 Hormone Replacement Therapy: Evidence In Adolescents: Evidence For Adolescents

Literature Review: Summary

Effects: Mental Health Improvements: Longitudinal Data

Effects: Mental Health Improvements: Cross-Sectional Data

9.4.6 Cross-sex Hormone Therapy: Evidence For Adults

Literature Review: Mental Health

Effects: Mental Health

Effects: Suicidal Ideation

Effects: Cardiovascular Health Worsened

9.4.7 Desistance From Transgender Identity In Youth: Rates

Rate Estimates: Newest, Highest Quality

Rate Estimates: Older / Worse

Rate Estimates: Newer

9.4.8 Desistance From Transgender Identity: Consequences

Gender Affirming Care Models Are Beneficial for All Patients, Not Just Trans

9.4.9 Sexual Reassignment Surgery: Efficacy In Adults

Meta-Studies: Surgical Outcomes

Meta-Studies: General Quality of Life: Mixed but Net Positive Support

High-Quality Evidence: Several Specific Outcomes Areas: Meta-Study Found Strong Support in Weak Evidence

Some Small Studies to Characterize the Literature Review

High-Quality Evidence: Large Swedish Population-Matching Study: No Effect Among Trans Population W/ Surgery Compared to Trans Population W/ No Surgery

Summary of Murad and Branstrom

Debunk: Misuse of "Sweden Study" by Dhejne

Debunk: Misuse of Williams Institute Study

Debunk: Idiotic Study by Heritage Foundation

Todotodotodo Chen 2019

9.4.10 Sexual Reassignment Surgery: Detransition And Regret Rates

Summary

Detransition is real and should be respected -- but it's very rare and should not be used to restrict gender-affirming healthcare.

Retransition Is Common

Literature Review: Trans Surgery in General, Mostly Vaginoplasty and Mastectomy

Large Study: Dutch Sample

Large Study: Usts Sample

Literature Review: Vaginoplasty

Survey of Surgeons

Uk Medical Sample

Legal Gender Change in Sweden

9.4.11 Restrictions On Gender-affirming Care In The Usa

Effect on Travel Times

9.5.0 Transgender: Myths About Transgender

9.5.1 Absurdly High Transgender Suicide Rates

My Videos

Data Nonexistence

Estimation: Usa

Estimation: Past-Year

Estimation: Lifetime

Estimation: Adolescent

Homeless Youth: Around the Same Rate

Holocaust: Pre-Nazi Era and Nazi Era

Holocaust: Ghettos

Holocaust: Camps

Holocaust: Survivors

Suicide Rate vs Slaves

9.5.2 Transgender Bathroom: No Increase In Assault Or Sex Crimes Following Non-discrimination Ordinances

Causal Evidence: No Increase From Gipandos

On Media Biases: Even Anti-Trans Sources Admit This Bias Is Likely

Argument by Lack of Republican Examples

Specific Case: Dakota Nieves

Specific Debunks: Miguel Martinez

Specific Debunks: Florence High School

9.5.3 Luna Younger

News:

Pediatrician: Identity

Counselor: Identity

Transgender Expert: Identity

CPS Agent: Identity

Custody Evaluator: Identity

Mother: Ideology

Dad: Christianity

Dad: Clothing

Dad: Haircut

Dad: Clinic

Dad: Donations

Video

9.6.0 Sexuality

9.6.1 Sex Itself

Sex Quality: Orgasm

Sex Quality: Partner

Sex Quality: Maps

Attraction

Happiness

9.6.2 Dick Size

9.6.3 Relationships

Happiness

Stress

Divorce

Cohabitation

Casual Sex

Makeup

9.6.4 Incels

9.6.5 Homosexuality / Nonheterosexuality

Demography and Trends Over Time: Uk

Demography and Trends Over Time: Usa

Affirmation Improves Gay Lives

Homosexuality and Masculinity-Femininity

Affirmation

Mark Regnereus New Family Structures Study (Nfss) Is Bad

Abuse Rates

Causes of Homosexuality

Removal From the DSM

Anal Sex Does Appear to Increase Incontinence

9.6.6 Parenting

Happiness

Punishment

9.6.7 Gay Parenting

Meta-Study

Invisible Victims: Delayed Onset Depression Among Adults With Same-Sex Parents

Gay Parenting

9.6.8 Men's Rights

Child Custody and Family Court

Child Support

Paternity Testing

Dropout Rates

Work Fatalities

Crime:

The Draft

Intimate Partner Violence

9.6.9 Pornography

Aggression: Meta-Study

Satisfaction: Meta-Study

Relationship Quality: Qualitative

Sexism: Correlational

9.6.10 Circumcision

Abbreviations

MC = male circumcision

NMC = neonatal male circumcision

VMMC = voluntary male medical circumcision

AAP = American Academy of Pediatrics

BMA = British Medical Association

CPS = Canadian Paediatric Society

CDC = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

UNAIDS = Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS

WHO = World Health Organization

Todo

Scientific Consensus: Organizations in Favor for HIV-AIDS Prevention

list: WHO-UNAIDS, CDC

Scientific Consensus: Organizations in Favor for Parental Choice

list: AAP, BMA, CPS, NIH

Incidence of Circumcision: United States

Prevalence of Circumcision: Africa

Prevalence of Circumcision: Worldwide

Motivation: Mostly Tied to Parental Circumcision Status (Not Valid Reason)

Adverse Events From Neonatal Circumcision

Neonatal Deaths From Circumcision

Neonatal Deaths From Circumcision: Bad Studies

Hiv Infection Rates and Circumcision

Sti Infection Rates and Circumcision

Neonatal Urinary Tract Infections and Circumcision

Psychological Harms: Earp Et Al XXX

9.6.11 Sexual Assault And Sexual Harassment

Causes: Hostility Towards Women

Prevention Todo: Meta-Study

Efficacy of Sexual Assault Training: Positive

Efficacy of Sexual Harassment Training: Mixed

Motive of Harassers: Power Maintenance

Hierarchy and Abuse

False Rape Accusations

9.7.0 Abortion And Reproductive Health

9.7.1 Current Laws

Abortion Restrictions

9.8.0 Polling

Polling on Abortion Restrictions After Dobbs

Polling on Overturning Roe v Wade

9.8.1 Benefits Of Birth Control [TODO]

9.8.2 Abortion And Fetal Viability

Frequency of Abortions by Gestational Age

Frequency of Abortions by Gestational Age, Focus on Late Term Abortions

Availability of Abortions by Gestational Age

Cost of Abortions by Gestational Age

Viability of Fetuses by Gestational Age: Background

Viability of Fetuses by Gestational Age: Recent Evidence

Viability of Fetuses by Gestational Age: Historical Trends

Viability of Fetuses by Gestational Age: International Evidence

Reasons for Why People Have Late-Term Abortions: Primarily Delays in Pregnancy Discovery

9.8.3 Patient Reasons For Abortion

Reasons Given by Patients for Abortions in General

Reasons Given by Patients for Late-Term Abortions

Fetal Anomalies and Their Rates of Occurrence

Contraceptive Use Before Abortion

9.8.4 Health Consequences Of Abortion

No Effect of Suicide

Mortality Rate From Abortion

9.8.5 Consequences Of Bans

Poland

Banning Increases Maternal Death

9.9.0 Sexism & Feminism

9.9.1 Polling

9.9.2 Sexism Bad + Antisexism Good

Gender Pay Gap

Economic

Health

9.9.3 Female Occupation Preference

Genuine Preference: Gender Equality

Socialism and Gender Equality in Stem

Genuine Preference: Personality Tests

Genuine Preference: Biology

Social Conditioning

Solutions

Sexism: Bias [Unformatted, Unread]

Sexism: Hiring [Unformatted, Unread]

Sexism: Harassment [Unformatted, Unread]

Nonadvancement [Unformatted, Unread]

Older Data Outdated [Unformatted, Unread]

Lack of Role Models [Unformatted, Unread]

Sexism: Teachers [Unformatted, Unread]

Underconfidence [Unformatted, Unread]

9.9.4 Single Parenthood / Single Motherhood

Divorce Necessary: Conflict Bad

Weak Effect: Crime

Weak Effect: Variety

10.0.0 International Relations: Whither Internationalism?

10.1.0 United Nations

######

Effectiveness of Peacekeeping

######

Democratizing the United Nations

11.0.0 Country-specific Data

11.1.0 North Korea As A Socialist Country

11.1.1 Human Rights Violations

United Nations Reports

11.1.2 Resources

Summary

It's often hard to find resources from within North Korea, due to the country's closed nature and (often) shitty website design. These help.

Images

^ don't use rodong.rep.kp, it updated its sitemap and is useless

Video

11.1.3 Democratic Elections: Obvious Sham

Todo: Can't Find Any Sources on This

""" """"""According to the Law on the Election of Representatives of People's Assemblies at All Levels"""

Summary

North Korean ballots have only one candidate listed, who is chosen by the government. Voters can either cast the unmarked ballot to vote for the candidate or mark the ballot to vote against the candidate.

Constitutional One-Party Government

Positions Elected: Local, Provincial, National; One Ballot Per Candidate

North Korean Official: Each Ballot Has Just One Candidate Whose Name Must Be Crossed Off

Pictures of Ballots: Each Ballot Has Just One Candidate

Pictures of Ballots: From North Korean State Media

Pictures of Public Postings of Voter Rolls (Used to Check Who Has and Has Not Voted)

Parties Don't Matter

Voters' Meetings Get Just Passing Mention in Human Rights Report

Voters' Meetings Rarely Mentioned by KCNA

voters' meetings: " ", open letter: " "

How Do Voter's Meetings Work?

Turnout and Assent Near Universal: Official Reports Claim 100% Support for Candidates

^ note that tankies may argue the above are the result of voter's meetings -- this does not align with statement by Deputy Secretary General Li, and requires one to believe that over the course of three decades 89% of people would consistently choose one party to represent them

Comparison to Fascist Italy

11.1.4 North Korean Election Results By Year

Graphical Results by Year

Local and National Elections: Wikipedia

National Elections: Inter-Parliamentary Union

National Elections: Nohlen Et Al (Mentions That Party Breakdowns Are Frequently Not Available)

National Elections: Kcna (Never Gives Breakdown by Sub-Party)

National Elections: Candidates Elected: Kcna

common titles: " ", " ", " "

Local Elections: Kcna (Never Gives Breakdown by Sub-Party)

National Elections: Other North Korean Media

11.1.5 Ten Principles: Authoritarian

Summary

The most important document in North Korea is the Ten Principles, which citizens have to learn and possibly memorize, and which is de facto superior even to the Constitution. The document outlines the expectations that citizens have absoute loyalty to the Kim family and Juche or Kim-Il-sung-Kim-Jong-ilist ideology.

History

Ten Principles 2013 Version: Importance of Edits Made

Ten Principles 1974 Version: Original Korean Hangeoul

Ten Principles 1974 Version: CAfNKHR Translation

11.1.6 North Korean Constitution Todo Xxx

Constitution Changes

Previously, the North had deleted all the expressions of 'communism' in 2009 and 2010 when it revised the constitution and party rules, respectively.

also removed dictatorship of proletariat!

This time the name was changed to "Ten Principles for Establishing the Party's Unique Leadership System", and the content was reduced from the preamble plus 10 articles and 65 paragraphs and merged into the preamble plus 10 articles and 60 paragraphs.

11.1.7 North Korean Racism / Ethnocentrism

11.1.8 Surveys

Scope of Migration From North Korea to South Korea (And Back), Aka "Defection"

Surveys of North Koreans in North Korea: CSIS Panel

Surveys of North Koreans Outside North Korea

11.1.9 Claims Of Dynasty / Monarchy

Symbology

11.1.10 Economic Development

Nighttime Satellite Space Photographs

Propaganda

History

North Korea: """North Korea released relatively detailed statistics in the 1950s, but stopped publishing official data from the 1960s. Japanese scholars, Goto and Niwa, tried to estimate North Korea s GDP using a method similar to the NMP-based method applied by the CIA to estimate the Soviet s GDP (Goto, 1990; Niwa and Goto, 1989). However, while this worked until 1960, the lack of data made this endeavor no longer feasible. In addition, because there was significantly less data for North Korea than the Soviet Union, various assumptions had been made in the estimation of GDP, making the accuracy of the estimates somewhat suspect."""

Lack of GDP Data: No Publication

GDP Data Estimates

Alternate Data: Budget Growth

Causes of Slow Growth: Low TFP Growth

Reforms Over Time

Sanctions and Testing Timeline

Trade Over Time

Sanctions Economic Impact

Sanctions Humanitarian Impact

Foreign Aid: Comparison to South Korea

11.2.0 China As A Socialist Country

11.2.1 Rule By The Wealthy (likely Worse Than USA!)

History

Wealth of the Leadership: Usa

Wealth of the Leadership: China

Wealth of the Leadership: Change Over Time

Sources of People for the NPC

11.2.2 Inequality: Higher Than Euro Countries

Income Inequality Increase

Wealth Inequality Increase

Expansion of Public Programs

11.2.3 Poverty: Sharply Declining

Chinese Support for Capitalism

Chinese Support for the CCP

11.2.5 Dengism

Public Wealth Decline

Public Investment Decline

Evaluating Deng's Reforms

11.3.0 China Foreign Policy

11.3.1 Foreign Policy: Foreign Aid

Foreign Aid: Motivations

Foreign Aid: Scope

11.3.2 Foreign Policy: International Lending

Scope

International Lending: Generosity

summary: Chinese lending to developing countries is generally less concessional than official Western or multilateral creditors but much more concessional than the private market. This is a net good!

Debt Diplomacy Reading Todo Good Studies

Effects on Popular Opinion

Resource-Backing: Not That Abusive, Based in China's History

11.4.0 Chinese State Actions In Xinjiang

11.4.1 Biased And Usually Terrible Western Sources

Early Estimates: Zenz 1 Million (Very Biased)

Probably Good: NYT Numbers (Find Source Todo)

11.4.2 Sources Of Graphs To Replicate

11.4.3 United Nations UN Human Rights Council HRC Position On Xinjiang

2022 Vote

Ohchr Report

Background: Head of HRC

11.4.4 High Rate Of Arrests: Confirmed By Chinese State Data

My Graphs

CHRD Article: CHRD Is Untrustworthy

Census Data

State Publications: Supreme People's Procuratorate Work Reports

^ the 2008-2012 number does NOT line up with the numbers from 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011; either the 2008-2012 number is not comparable or is wrong

^ the above implies the following results for 2017: criminal arrests 1069802 = 4531000 - (879817 + 879615 + 873148 + 828618); criminal indictments 1663975 = 7173000 - (1324404 + 1391225 + 1390933 + 1402463)

^ the above implies the following results for 2017: criminal arrests 1081490 = 1056616 / 0.977; criminal indictments 1706497 = 1692846 / 0.992

State Publications: Tibet

State Publications: Xinjiang People's Procuratorate Work Reports

^ above implies the following for 2013: criminal arrests 13880 = 27164 / 1.957, criminal indictments 21856 = 34816 / 1.593

^ above implies the following for 2017: criminal arrests 227902 = 330918 - (13880 + 27164 + 34568 + 27404), criminal indictments: 215820 = 362872 - (21856 + 34816 + 49075 + 41305)

State Publications: Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region People's Procuratorate

^ the above implies the following results for 2017: criminal arrests 14136 = 67283 - (12988 + 12939 + 13283 + 13937); criminal indictments 34830 = 149056 - (29812 + 29368 + 28704 + 26342)

^ the above implies the following results for 2012: criminal arrests 17429 = 81070 - (16725 + 15571 + 15963 + 15382); criminal indictments 32681 = 116014 - (24409 + 19283 + 20012 + 19629)

^ above implies the following for 2010: criminal arrests 15571 = 16725 * (1 - 0.069), criminal indictments 19283 = 24409 * (1 - 0.21)

2010: missing!

11.4.5 Yearbooks

Arrests: China

Fertility: All Regions

Family Size: All Regions

Xinjiang Yearbooks

NOT the Correct Yearbook Series for Xinjiang Province

Fertility: Xinjiang

11.4.6 Boarding Schools

Boarding Schools

11.5.0 Soviet Union / Ussr

11.5.1 Historical Context

1914-1917: World War 1

1917: Revolution

Civil War

World War 2: Fatalities

World War 2: Destruction

World War 2: Reparations

11.5.2 Positive Outcomes: Economic Growth

GDP Growth: Fairly Average

GDP Growth Under Stalin: Highly Concentrated During Periods of Low Repression

Income Growth

Consumption Growth

Hours Worked Decline

Paid Leave Length

Public Housing

11.5.3 Positive Outcomes: Inequality Reduction

Reduction of Inequality

Mobility

11.5.4 Positive Outcomes: Education Expansion

Literacy Eradication (Likbez)

Years of Education

11.5.5 Positive Outcomes: Soviet Contributions To Science

Soviet Firsts

11.5.6 Mediocre Outcomes: Investment Failed To Increase Productivity

Investment Growth

Bad Investment Decisions

Bad Investment Decisions: Siberia

Failure of Planning

Intensive and Extensive Growth

Research and Development: Military Spending Prioritized

Foreign Aid (Not Strong Reason for Decline)

Space Programs (Not Strong Reason for Decline)

11.5.7 Mediocre Outcomes: Agricultural Efficiency

Food Intake Rise Substantially

Employment Shift From Agriculture

Agricultural Investment Grew Quickly

Agricultural Efficiency Grew Poorly

Net Food Imports

11.5.8 Mediocre Outcomes: Healthcare

Early Lifespan Greatly Expanded

the healthcare system of the USSR presided over an enormous rise in life expectancy at birth: <>

Good Emegency Medicine

Ideology and Early Semashko System and Stalinism

Inequality by Class and Politics

Expenses Over Time

Failure to Curb Alcohol Addiction

Healthcare Stagnation

Post-Collapse Mortality

11.5.9 Mediocre Outcomes: Sexism And Sexuality

Gender Pay Gap

Sexuality Liberalized Substantially Over Time (Research Is Low-Medium Quality)

11.5.10 Negative Outcomes: Political Authoritarianism

Contemporary Descriptions of Elections: Antagonistic

Soviet Union as Authoritarian, but Not Totalitarian

Freedom of Speech Under Stalin: Thin

One Candidate and One Party Per Seat

List of Soviet Elections

Contemporary Descriptions of Soviet Elections: Brailsford

Great Purge: Politburo Deaths 1917

Great Purge: Politburo Deaths 1919

Contemporary Reactions to Khrushchev's Secret Speech

Waves of Executions

Death Rates Before the Ussr

Collective Leadership in the Soviet Union: Cia Documents and "Dictatorship"

summary: One CIA report says that Stalin was not a dictator per se but rather the captain of the team of elite Soviet leaders who controlled the country. (Others call him a dictator.) It should be noted that "collective leadership" does not imply that said collective leadership was democratically selected!

11.5.11 Negative Outcomes: Authoritarianism Hurt Economic Outcomes

Summary

Economic Consequences of Authoritarianism: Lower Overall Economic Growth

Industrialization Without Growth

Destruction of Economic Incentives

Economoic Consequences of Authoritarianism: Lower Productivity From Gulags

Censorship: Shutting Down Alternative Visions of Socialist Economics

Dogmatism and Blindness Toward Authoritarianism

11.5.12 Negative Outcomes: Soviet Contributions To Pseudoscience

Suppression of Data

Suppression of Mainstream Science

11.5.13 Negative Outcomes: Censorship

Media: Books

Media: Films

11.5.14 Negative Outcomes: 1930-33 Soviet Famine

Other Terms

Holodomor in Ukraine, Goloshchekin genocide in Kazakhstan

Total Death Count

Holodomor Death Count

Intentional Genocide vs System Failure: Consensus-Taking

### effect on urban citizens: rates of death comparable to those of the rural famine regions

Grain Stocks From Harvest: Excessively Large, but Not Enormous

Causes: Non-Manmade

Exports: The Ussr Reduced Grain Exports

Numerous Failures of Collectivization

Ethnic Composition of Ukraine

Ethnicities Affected: Probably Not Intentionally Biased Towards Ukrainian Death

History of Famines in the Russian Empire

Todo

Todo Kazakh Famine

11.5.15 Negative Outcomes: Molotov-ribbentrop Pact

Historical Context: Soviet Union Had Attempted Mutual Defense Treaty Attempts With France & Britain

Why Did French and British Fail to Sign?

Treaty Text

Effects on Socialist Organizing in the United States

11.5.16 Negative Outcomes: Mass Death

Terms and Abbreviations: Punishments

summary: five main categories: execution, labor camp, labor colony, prison, special settler

Terms and Abbreviations: Organizations

Overall Death Toll

Background on Soviet Penal System

On Soviet Legalism: Why Documentation Is Easily Available for the Soviet Union's Killings

On Distinguishing Incarceration From Manslaughter From Purposive Killings

Executions

Forced Labor (Gulags; VChK-GPU-OGPU-NKVD-MVD)

Forced Labor: Most Were Not Criminals

Dekulakization

Repressed Nationalities

Mass Operation: Katyn and Related Operations

Mass Operations: Individual Investigations vs Mass Actions

Comparison Data: Overall Mortality: Biraben

Comparison Data: Overall Mortality: Adk

But What About the CIA Documents???

Todo

11.5.17 Post-soviet Polling

Censorship: Opinion Polling

Post-Ussr Polling: Eastern Bloc Respondents Have Nostalgia for Ussr

Post-Ussr Polling: Eastern Bloc Respondents Don't Have Nostalgia for Central Planning

Transitional Elections: Voters

summary: it's all about wording!

Post-Ussr Elections: Russian Voters Did Not Elect Communists

11.5.18 Grover Furr's Arguments Are Absurd

Not One Crime Quote

Critical Reviews by Marxists: Elich,

Critical Reviews by Marxists: Meyer, PhD Historian

Only Positive Academic-Ish Reception: Another Stalinist

Reddit Posts (Yes, I Know) Discussing Specific Failures in Two of Furr's Articles

"You Can't Name Even ONE Crime of Stalin"

11.6.0 Other Centrally Planned Economies

11.6.1 East Germany [unformatted]

Growth

Growth: Reparations

Nostalgia

Sexuality

11.7.0 Alleged Socialist Countries

11.7.1 Bolivia [unformatted]

Growth

Nationalization

Financial System

Deficit Spending

Social Spending

Unemployment

Purchasing Power

11.7.2 Venezuela [unformatted]

Not Socialist: Investment

Not Socialist: Public Control

Oil: Impact on Economy

Debt

Inflation Data

Food

Elections

Media

11.7.3 Chile Under Allende [unformatted]

Economy Under Allende: Printing Money Almost Certainly Caused Major Inflation

Economy Under Allende: Cia Funded Opposition

^ see chile_industrial_disputes.R for graph xxx todo

Economy: Sabotage

CIA Opposition

Allende Democratic

11.7.4 Chile Under Pinochet [unformatted]

Economy Under Pinochet

Economy: Data

Economy: "Socialism", Privatization, Re-Nationalization

Clips Todo Reread

Autocracy Under Pinochet

11.8.0 United States Of America

11.8.1 Joe Biden: Good Changes

International Relations: Airstrikes: Dramatic Decrease

International Relations: Airstrikes: Where to Push Biden

International Relations: Syria: Comparison With Russia

Additional Airstrike Datasets

11.8.2 2020: General

Accuracy of General Election Polling

Mail-in Voting:

Labor Issues: Democrats in General

Trump and Unions

Trump and Minimum Wages

Trump Has Appointed Many Judges

Biden and the 1994 Crime Bill

11.8.3 Donald Trump

Bad Economics: Overall

Bad Economics: Debt

Bad Economics: Tax Bill / Tax Cut

Bad Economics: Bad Trade Policy

Bad Leadersihp: High Cabinet Turnover

Corruption

Lies

LGBT Rights

The Wall

Foreign Policy

Self Made

11.8.4 2016 Primary

Alleged Media Anti-Bernie Bias: Weak Evidence

Berniebros Didn't Vote for Clinton: False

11.8.5 Biden Ukraine Israel Border Taiwan Bill 2023 Dylan Burns

What Does Biden Demand?

Congressional Progressive Caucus Statement

We Are Sending Old Weapons, but We're Paying to Replenish Them

Contracting Actions to Date (Replenishing Has Already Begun)

Russian Weapon Procurement Violates International Law

11.8.6 Federal Bureau Of Investigation Fbi

11.8.7 Fbi As Pro-capitalist

Fbi and Racism

Fbi Tactics

Number of Informants

Second Red Scare

11.8.8 Blue States Vs Red States

Federal Money: Blue States Are Not "Welfare Queens"

Productivity: Blue States Not Slackers

Poverty: Blue States Not Poorer

11.8.9 Republican Opposition To Democracy: Gerrymandering

Causal Evidence: Republican Trifectas Harm Democracy

Us House Effects

State House Effects

State House Examples: Republican Minority Rule

Us House Examples

11.8.10 Republican Opposition To Democracy: Other Metrics

Rising Illiberal Rhetoric

Democratic Rhetoric: Has Moved Leftward

Relevant Scotus Cases

Republicans Use Voter Id to Disenfranchise Their Opponents

Republicans Refuse to Implement Referenda

Republicans Attempt to Reduce Incoming Dem Governor's Powers

11.8.11 Capitol Hill Riots

Support in Polls

11.8.12 Impeachment

Not Sure Why These Are Important, but I Have Them So :Shrug:

Polls

Substance: Constitution

Substance: Kurt Volker [Unformatted]

Substance: Gordon Sondland [Unformatted]

Substance: Fiona Hill

Substance: Crowdstrike

Definitions

Substance: 25 July 2019 Phone Call: "Memorandum of a Telephone Conversation"

Substance: 21 April 2019 Phone Call: Rough Transcript

Procedure: House Vote

Procedure: Judiciary Committee

Procedure: Trial Rights

Procedure: Secret Hearings

Procedure: Whistleblower's Testimony

the whistleblower only gave written testimony -- as has Trump:

Goalposts: Lindsey Graham

11.8.13 Free Speech, Censorship, And Tolerance

Intentions

Left vs Right on Free Speech: Polls

^ note: very sus authorize

Left vs Right on Free Speech: Censorship

Efficacy of Censorship / Deplatforming: Isis

Efficacy of Censorship / Deplatforming: Reddit

11.8.14 Kavanaugh

William Pryor

Remirez Discussions

Extreme

11.8.15 Drone Strikes As A Method Of War

Drone Strikes: Civilian Death Rate

Drone Strikes: Civilian Death Rate (Published Graphs)

Drone Strikes: Anti-Terrorism Efficacy

11.8.16 Southern Strategy / Southern Party Switch From Dem To Gop

Todo

1965 Civil Rights Act Vote

Representation

South Switch Dem to Rep

Black Switch Dem to Rep

Quotes

11.8.17 Confederacy

Lost Cause

Polling

11.9.0 Civil War In Syria And Assad

11.9.1 Assad Is Not A Democratic Leader

Nondemocratic: Sham 2007 Presidential

Nondemocratic: Sham 2014 Presidential

Nondemocratic: Sham Parliamentary Elections

11.9.2 Assad Is Not A Socialist Leader

Not Socialist: Assad Literally Dropped Socialism From the Constitution

11.9.3 Assad's Military Did War Crimes

War Crimes: Civilian Deaths

War Crimes: Confirmed and Unconfirmed Chemical Attacks

11.9.4 Rojava Or Dfns Is Pretty Good

Human Rights: Pretty Good, Several War-Related Major Failings

Internal Structure

Criminal Justice: Fairly Progressive

LGBT Rights: Unclear, Need Stronger Evidence

11.10.0 Afghanistan War Of 2001-2023

11.10.1 Human Rights Under Taliban

11.10.2 Civilian Death

Brown University Cost of War

Un Reports

11.10.3 Surveys Of Afghans

List of Surveys From the Asia Foundation

^ no details on withdrawal or sympathies

Surveys From Iwps

Surveys From Acsor

note: ACSOR conducted

Surveys From Gallup

Support for US Involvement: Middling

11.11.0 Iraq Wars

11.11.1 Lies Used To Support First American Invasion Of Iraq / Gulf War

Background

Premature Babies Ripped From Incubators: Nayirah Testimony Fraud

Following the liberation of Kuwait, reporters were given access to the country. An ABC report found that "patients, including premature babies, did die, when many of Kuwait's nurses and doctors ... fled" but Iraqi troops "almost certainly had not stolen hospital incubators and left hundreds of Kuwaiti babies to die."

Amnesty International's Role in Supporting the Babies in Incubators Story

summary: Amnesty International initially corroborated Nayirah's story in 1990 and provided testimony from evacuees on the supposed killings that suggested an even *greater* number of babies killed. It wasn't until January 1991 that the organization expressed revulsion at the use of their work to support the war.

Although this testimony was a great shock to the American people, it did not succeed in convincing them of the need to intervene in Iraq. The turning point for public opinion was the 82-page report that Amnesty International issued on December 19, 1990. In the report, the human rights watchdog not only confirmed Nayirah s testimony, but claimed that Iraqi soldiers took 312 Kuwaiti infants out of their incubators and killed them.

No Iraqi Army Buildup on Saudi Border: Satellite Photos Disprove

11.11.2 Lies Used To Support Second American Invasion Of Iraq / Iraq War

Iraq War Was Illegal

TODO that jstor

9/11 and the Axis of Evil

11.11.3 Sanctions Death Toll: Fabricated

Timeline

1990 August 06: total sanctions against Iraq began

1991 April: sanctions modified to exclude foodstuffs from sanctions

1996: sanctions modified to include an Oil For Food Programme (OFFP)

1996-2003: sanctions increasingly ignored

2003 May 22: sanctions were lifted (1 month after the successful US invasion)

Us Failure: Child Mortality Remains High and Did Not Decrease After Invasion

Fabricated Evidence: Sanctions Death Toll Was Faked

11.12.0 Iran Nuclear Deal: Good

11.12.1 Background: Iran Nuclear Deal Goals

Iran Deal: Jcpoa Goals

Iran Deal: Military Sites

Iran Deal: Didn't Pass the Senate

11.12.2 Alleged Violations

Iran Deal: Israeli Documents

Iran Deal: Heavy Water Violations

11.13.0 Ukrainian-russian Relations

11.13.1 Background: Euromaidan Protests

11.13.2 Crimean Status: Polling

Good Summary Article on the Complexities From 538

Todo Scrape Additional Polls From This Description

Polls on Crimea Before March 2014 Referendum: Razumkov

Polls on Crimea Before March 2014 Referendum: Gallup

Polls on Crimea Before March 2014 Referendum: Undp

Polls on Crimea Before March 2014 Referendum: Other

Leaked Report From the Council on Human Rights

Referendum Results

Post-Referendum Polling

11.13.3 Donbas Status

Polling in 2014

Polling in 2016 and 2019

Polling in 2022

2014 Referendum Results

2022 Referendum Results

Blank Ballots

Notable "International Poll Watchers"

"Why Aren't There International Observers for US Elections"

List of Absurdly Stupid People Who Accepted or Promoted the Sham 2022 Referenda Results

11.13.4 Frozen Conflict Period

11.13.5 Documented War Crimes By Russian Forces: Surrendered Civilian Killing Near Myla

See Also

Map

Drone Footage by Ukrainian Armed Forces

11.13.6 Alleged War Crimes Done By Russian Forces: Bucha Massacre

Background: Geolocation

rough coordinates: 50.548611, 30.220833 or 50 32 55 N 30 13 15 E

Background: Forces Present

Background: Timeline

Yablonska: Bicyclist: Combined Footage: Russian Forces Fire on Cyclist at Exact Spot Where Cyclist Body Is Found Later

Yablonska: Yablonska Artem Drivethrough: Combined Footage: Satellite Images Prove Bodies Not Present on 28 February, Appeared on 9-11 March and 20-21 March

The images of Yablonska Street show at least 11 "dark objects of similar size to a human body" appearing between 9 and 11 March. Their location precisely matches positions where the bodies were filmed by a local council member after Ukrainian forces reclaimed the city. A second video on the same street shows three bodies near bicycles and abandoned cars, which according to satellite imagery appeared between 20 and 21 March. The Times concluded that the analysis rebuts Russian claims about the killing of civilians happening after withdrawal of the Russian army.

Yablonska: Ground Footage: Ukrainian Military Driving Through Street

Yablonska: Combined Footage: Afp, Reuters, Wapo

Yablonsky: Combined Footage:

Trench: Satellite Images: Existed by 10 March, Was 45 Feet Long on 31 March; Church of St. Andrew and Pyervozvannoho All Saints

Trench: Ground Footage: Contextualized, May Be Burials of "Civilian Men" or "Civil Defenders"

Trench: Misattributed Image: Motyzhyn Trench Buried Bodies

Russian State Media Claims: Bodies Moved in Bucha Films: It's Literally a Water Drop and Mirror Edge

Russian State Media Claims: Bodies Looked Fresh: False

Russian State Media Claims: Azov Battalion Entered: Correct, but Timeline Puts Them Entering on 2Nd at Earliest

Russian State Media Claims: Deaths May Have Resulted From Ukrainian Shelling

Bucha Massacre: Todo

Bucha Massacre: German Intelligence

Bucha Massacre: Testimony

Russian State Media Claims: Mayor Did Not Mention Civilian Deaths in 31 March Address: False in Context

Russian State Media Claims: When Russia Pulled Out of Bucha

United Nations Meeting: Going Ahead!

Bucha: Noted Liars

"Anti-imperialist" "Patriotic Socialist" Responses

11.13.7 Documented War Crimes By Ukrainian Forces: Pow Shooting In Dmytrivka

Nearby Ukrainian War Crime: Pow Shooting in Dmytrivka, Verified

11.13.8 Anti-russian Bias In Ukraine

11.13.9 Glory To Ukraine / Slava Ukraini: Far-right Slogan Or Ukrainian Nationalist Slogan

History

^ biography: """Vyacheslav Likhachev, PhD in History and head of the National Minority Rights Monitoring Group. Author of the Right-Wing Extremism in Ukraine: The Phenomenon of Svoboda . His research interests include ethnopolitical conflict studies, xenophobia on the post-Soviet space, ideology, and activity of far-right groups in Russia and Ukraine, political extremism, theories of nation and nationalism, history of anti-Semitism, and the Jewish communities in post-Soviet space."""

Yuschenko

Yanukovych

11.13.10 Nuland, Pyatt, And Yatsenyuk TODO UNFORMATTED XXX

But McCain s actions were a model of diplomatic restraint compared to the conduct of Victoria Nuland, the assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affairs. As Ukraine s political crisis deepened, Nuland and her subordinates became more brazen in favoring the anti Yanukovych demonstrators. Nuland noted in a speech to the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation on December 13, 2013, that she had traveled to Ukraine three times in the weeks following the start of the demonstrations. Visiting the Maidan on December 5, she handed out cookies to demonstrators and expressed support for their cause.

The extent of the Obama administration s meddling in Ukraine s politics was breathtaking. Russian intelligence intercepted and leaked to the international media a Nuland telephone call in which she and U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Geoffey Pyatt discussed in detail their preferences for specific personnel in a post Yanukovych government. The U.S favored candidates included Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the man who became prime minister once Yanukovych was ousted from power. During the telephone call, Nuland stated enthusiastically that Yats is the guy who would do the best job.

The two diplomats also were prepared to escalate the already extensive U.S. involvement in Ukraine s political turbulence. Pyatt stated bluntly that we want to try to get somebody with an international personality to come out here and help to midwife this thing [the political transition]. Nuland clearly had Vice President Joe Biden in mind for that role. Noting that the vice president s national security adviser was in direct contact with her, Nuland related that she told him probably tomorrow for an atta boy and to get the details to stick. So Biden s willing.

11.13.11 Neo-nazism In Ukraine And Russia

Neo-Nazism in the Wagner Group

Neo-Nazism in the DPR/DNR Donetsky People's Republic

Neo-Nazism in the Azov Battalion

Far-Right Beliefs in Ukraine: Not Common

Ukrainian Government Promotions of Far-Right: Frequent

Ukrainian Government Infiltration/Appointments of Far-Right: Deep

11.14.0 Europe

11.14.1 United Kingdom

Brexit

Thatcher and Neoliberalism

11.14.2 Poland

11.15.0 Middle East

11.15.1 Polling On Solutions

11.15.2 Israel Polling: Common Reactionary Beliefs

Preferential Treatment for Jewish People: Overwhelming Support

God-Given Right to Israel: Overwhelming Support

Expulsion of Arabs: Slight Majority Support

Bigoted Beliefs From General Israeli Public

Homosexuality Accepted: Slight Majority Support

Theocracy: Strong Majority Oppose

11.15.3 Palestine Polling: Widespread Reactionary Beliefs

Religious Freedom: Overwhelming Support

Democracy: Strong Majority Support

Violence Against Civilians: Majority Oppose

Theocracy: Overwhelming Support

Sexism: Overwhelming Support

Sexuality: Homosexuality and Extramarital Sex: Overwhelming Oppose

11.15.4 Aprtheid In Palestine

Definition of Apartheid

The Apartheid Convention defines the crime against humanity of apartheid as inhuman acts committed for the purpose of establishing and maintaining domination by one racial group of persons over any other racial group of persons and systematically oppressing them. The Rome Statute of the ICC adopts a similar definition: inhumane acts committed in the context of an institutionalized regime of systematic oppression and domination by one racial group over any other racial group or groups and committed with the intention of maintaining that regime. The Rome Statute does not further define what constitutes an institutionalized regime.

The crime of apartheid under the Apartheid Convention and Rome Statute consists of three primary elements: an intent to maintain a system of domination by one racial group over another; systematic oppression by one racial group over another; and one or more inhumane acts, as defined, carried out on a widespread or systematic basis pursuant to those policies.

Among the inhumane acts identified in either the Convention or the Rome Statute are forcible transfer, expropriation of landed property, creation of separate reserves and ghettos, and denial of the the right to leave and to return to their country, [and] the right to a nationality.

Definition of Persecution

The Rome Statute identifies the crime against humanity of persecution as the intentional and severe deprivation of fundamental rights contrary to international law by reason of the identity of the group or collectivity, including on racial, national, or ethnic grounds. Customary international law identifies the crime of persecution as consisting of two primary elements: (1) severe abuses of fundamental rights committed on a widespread or systematic basis, and (2) with discriminatory intent.

Human Rights Watch 2021 Report

Death Toll

11.15.5 October 7 And The Israeli Ethnic Cleansing Of Palestine

Deaths in Detail

Bigoted Statements From Leading Israeli Politicians: Benjamin Netanyahu

Bigoted Statements From Israeli Politicians: Galit Distel

Bigoted Statements From Israeli Politicians: Meirav Ben-Ari

Bigoted Statements From Leading Israeli Pundits: Naftali Bennett

Bigoted Statements From Leading Israeli Politicians: Isaac Herzog

Bigoted Statements by Leading Israeli Military Leaders: Yoav Gallant

Bigoted Statements by Leading Israeli Military Leaders: Ghassan Alian

Bigoted Statements by Leading Israeli Military Leaders: Daniel Hagari

Genocidal Statements From Israeli Think Tanks: Misgav

Background on Israeli Ministry of Intelligence

Genocidal Statements From Israeli Think Tanks: Israeli Ministry of Intelligence

Foreign Evaluations of Genocide

War Crimes

Prior Examples of US Achieving Restraint or Condemning Violence

11.15.6 October 7 And Alleged Antisemitism On The Left: Analysis Of Dsa Role

Anti-Jewish Bigotry by Political Beliefs

Leftist Congressmembers: Dsa + Omar

Dsa Statements That Clearly Condemn Anti-Israeli Violence

Dsa Statements That Condemn Violence Universally

Dsa Statements That Do Not Explicitly Condemn Violence

Dsa Statements That Plausibly Endorsed the Violence

Dsa Statements That Endorsed Violence

11.16.0 Fascist Countries

11.16.1 Fascists Were Anti-socialists: Nazi Rhetoric

But Weren't the Nazis the National **Socialist** German **Workers'** Party?

But Weren't the Nazis the National **Socialist** German **Workers'** Party?

But Didn't the Nazis and the Socialists Both Use Red?

11.16.2 Fascists Were Capitalists (class Collaborationists)

Nazi Germany Anti-Worker Effects: National Income Share

Nazi Germany Anti-Worker Effects: Income Inequality

Nazi Germany Anti-Worker Effects: Wages

Nazi Germany Anti-Worker Effects: Disoosable Income

National Socialist People's Welfare

Fascist Italy: Capitalist Winners, Labor Losers

When you're done reading the intro (from the draft version, not the published version), you should read Section III, which explicitly discusses these contrasts, or my quote above, from the conclusion in Section IV.

But Didn't the Nazis Seize Control of Industry?

Yes, but this fact must be contextualized. The Nazis arose during the Great Depression. During this time, **all** Western nations (including the Nazis) used some nationalization and regulation to stablize their economies and later to prepare for war. However, the Nazis **privatized** previously-nationalized industries. (In fact, the term "privatization" was coined to describe Nazi economic policies.)

But Didn't the Fascists Seize Control of Industry?

But Didn't the Nazis Control Industry Indirectly and Destroy Private Property?

Yes and no. The Nazis arose during the Great Depression. During this time, **all** Western nations (including the Nazis) used some nationalization and regulation to stablize their economies and later to prepare for war. However, the Nazis believed that private businesses were more efficient than state planning.

But Didn't the Nazis Set Official Wages?

But Didn't the Nazis Create the "Labor Front"?

But Didn't the Nazis Create "Strength Through Joy", Kraft Durch Freude?

But Didn't the Nazis Create the "Peoples Car", Volkswagen?

11.16.3 Sociodemographic Background Of Support For Nazism: Small Business Owners, Small Farm Owners, Professional Class, And Upper Class

Rich Were More Likely to Vote for Hitler

Economic Impacts: Unemployed Protestants Voted Communist and Socialist-Centrist; Self-Employed Protestants Voted Nazi ("petit Bourgeois" and Rural Vote); Catholics Mostly Maintained Their Old Voting Patterns

Education Professionals Were More Likely to Have Nazi Membership

Education and Nazi Support

Petit Bourgeois: Complicated Evidence, Suggested Solution

Political Elites and Bourgeois Were More Conservative and More Likely to Support the Nazis

Nazi Protests

11.16.4 Alleged Military Excellence

Eastern Front

Western Front

11.16.5 Nazi Apologism: Soviet Aggression

11.16.6 Nazi Apologism: Polish Massacres Of Germans

Border Incidents

Bloody Sunday

Schadewaldt Report

11.16.7 Holocaust: Evidence For

German Documents

Treblinka

Motivations

The Holocaust Is Not Separate From Western Civilization

11.16.8 Involvement Of The Roman Catholic Church In Fascism

History

Ideology: Background

Ideology: Anti-Nazi

Ideology: Authoritarian

Ideology: Action

Ideology: 1937 Encyclical

Holocaust: Church Antisemitism

Holocaust: 1943 Roman Ghetto Raid

Spain: Church Actions: Pre-Civil War

Spain: Church Actions: Civil War

11.17.0 Historical Countries

11.17.1 British Ireland

Irish Potato Famine (Occurred in a Free Market)

11.17.2 British India

Wheat Exports

Payment for Railroads

Railroads Helped Exports

Railroads Didn't Protect Against Famine

Control of India by Britain

1858 Government of India Act

1861 Indian Councils Act

1919 Indian Councils Act

In 1919, an Indian legislature, consisting of a Council of State and a Legislative Assembly, took over the legislative functions of the Viceroy's Council. The viceroy nonetheless retained significant power over legislation. He could authorise the expenditure of money without the Legislature's consent for "ecclesiastical, political [and] defense" purposes, and for any purpose during "emergencies." He was permitted to veto, or even stop debate on, any bill. If he recommended the passage of a bill, but only one chamber cooperated, he could declare the bill passed over the objections of the other chamber. The Legislature had no authority over foreign affairs and defence. The president of the Council of State was appointed by the viceroy; the Legislative Assembly elected its president, but the election required the viceroy's approval.

11.17.3 Feudalism

11.17.4 Rome

Maps:

spain:

Timeline

Heather on Barbarians and Breakdown

Heather on Prior Immigration

Ward-Perkins: External Invasion (Summarizations by Askhistorians, Unformatted)

Goldsworthy: Internal Weaknesses

4: Unstable Leadership: 27 BC to 395 AD

4: Unstable Leadership: 27 BC to 476 AD

4: Unstable Leadership: Comparisons

Other: Literacies

Other: Lead Consumptions

11.17.5 African Civilizations

Ethiopia

Somalia

Examples of African Science and Technology

Examples of African Buildings

Western African Non-Adoption of the Wheel

11.17.6 Egypt And Central Planning: Mixed

11.17.7 Incan Empire And Central Planning: Planned

Summary

11.18.0 Ancient Societies And Human Nature

11.18.1 Terminology

BP = before present

Upper Paleolithic = about 50-20k BP; before the Mesolithic

Mesolithic or Epipaleolithic = about 20k-8k BP in Near East, 15k-5k BP in Europe; final period of hunter-gathers before Neolithic Revolution and agriculture

Neolithic Revolution = rapid transition of many humans in Near East to agriculture

Near East = Southwest Asia ("Mesopotamia", Southeast Turkey, Israel, Iraq)

11.18.2 Murder And Violence Has Rapidly Declined

Murder: Long Decline

Murder: Long Decline: Shitty Graph, Scrape for Sources

Murder: State vs Nonstate

Murder: Comparison With Other Hominids

Violence: Long Decline

11.18.3 War Has Recently Significantly Declined

International Relations Has No Ideological Consensus

Decline of War in Modern Era

Gender and War

Motivations for War

11.18.4 Economic Inequality Arose After Agriculture

Economic Equality

11.18.5 Economic Specialization And Gender Specialization Arose Before Agriculture

11.18.6 Gender Inequality Arose Before Agriculutre

Gender Equality

11.18.7 Agricultural Revolution / Paleolithic Revolution

Data on Height, Lifespan, and Urbanicity in Greece and Turkey

Human Population Largely Failed to Grow for 5000 Years Afterward (This Book Doesn't Cite a Source for This Claim)

Life Expectancy

11.18.8 Origin Of Money

12.0.0 Environmentalism

12.1.0 Global Warming & Energy Production & Climate Change

12.1.1 Terminology Notes

Carbon Abbrevations

1 PgC = 1 petagram of carbon

1 GtC = 1 gigaton of carbon

1 PgC = 1 GtC

1 GtCO2 = 1 gigaton of carbon dioxide

1 PgC = ~3.7 PgCO2 = ~3.7 GtCO2

Representative Concentration Pathways

RCP 1.9 = CO2 emissions follow the Paris Agreement to reach net 0 by 2050, temperature rises to <1.5dC by 2100

RCP 2.6 = CO2 emissions decline to 0 between 2020 to 2100, temperature rises to <2dC by 2100

RCP 3.4 = CO2 ???, temperature rises to 2.4dC by 2100

RCP 4.5 = CO2 emissions decline to 1/2 of 2050 levels by 2100, temperature rises to 2-3dC by 2100

RCP 6 = CO2 emissions peak in 2080

RCP 7 = CO2 emissions continue as is (status quo)

RCP 8.5 = CO2 emissions rise through 2100

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Carbon Budgets and Pathways for Each Plans

######c

12.1.2 Persuasion And Messaging On Climate Change

Summary

Doomer coverage of climate change may make people inactive or tuned out, which is the opposite of what we need. Solution-oriented coverage makes people hopeful and active, which are useful.

Summary of Messaging From APA

Doomer Messaging Does Not Work, Solutions-Oriented Messaging Does

12.1.3 Causes: Consensus

12.1.4 Causes: Model Accuracy

model accuracy

12.1.5 Scope Over Time

Temperature and Co2 Over Time

Temperature Over Time

Co2 Levels Over Time

Co2 Levels and Temperature Correlate Over Long Periods of Time

12.1.6 Causes: Economic Class

Causes: Don't Blame the Poor

Climate Change and Income Inequality

Throughpaths: Companies

Historical GHG Emissions

12.1.7 Effects: Food

Production

Nutrition

12.1.8 Effects: Heat

Unliveable Heat

12.1.9 Effects: Ocean Acidification

12.1.10 Effects: Economic Costs

Overview

Effects: GDP Reduction: Low

Effects: GDP Reduction: High

Alternative Energy: Environmental Benefit

Alternative Energy: Cost

Alternative Energy: Full Renewable

Deaths Per TWH

Bird Deaths

Nuclear: Timescale

Nuclear: Cost

Nuclear: Cancer Risk Among Residents

Nuclear: Cancer Risk Among Workers

Nuclear: Shell Bluff

Nuclear: Sex Link

Abatement: Cost

Counterstudies: Drought

12.1.11 Effects: Phytoplankton

Oxygen Concentration Decline Is Small

Human Survivability and Oxygen

Phytoplankton Decline

Phytoplankton Adaptation

12.1.12 Solutions: Polling And Surveys

Low Willingness to Pay

12.1.13 Solutions: Net Zero By 2050 And Carbon Budgets

Carbon Budgets: Literature Review

Carbon Budgets: Including Non-Co2 Forcing and Permafrost Melting

12.1.14 Solutions: Alleged No Point Of No Return

Most Models Agree Models No PONR

Randers and Goluke 2020: Study Itself

Randers and Goluke 2020: Responses

12.1.15 Solutions: Alleged Tipping Points

Consensus Review

Permafrost Melting

12.1.16

Ideological Solutions to Climate Change

12.1.17 Summary

Background: Universe of Available Beliefs

Evaluations of Policies

12.1.18 Degrowth And Green Growth

Degrowth in Its Own Words: Equitable Downscaling of Energy & Resource Use, Primarily Aimed at Rich Nations

Degrowth Policies

Descriptive Claims: Ecocosts of Carbon Capture

Descriptive Claims: Material Footprint: Scope

12.1.19 Socialist Green Growth

12.1.20 Decoupling: Descriptive Data

Summary of Types of Decoupling

Production-Based vs Consumption-Based Decoupling

Developed Countries Have Achieved Small Consumption-Based Absolute Decoupling

Rate of Decoupling Is Insufficient to Guarantee a Livable Earth

Sectoral Data: Absolute Decoupling in High-Tech Sectors

12.1.21 Sectoral Approaches

To Read: Princeton's Net Zero America Study, Which Has Sectoral Breakdowns

Concrete

12.2.0 Other Environmental Issues

12.2.1 Ocean Plastic Pollution

12.2.2 Bees

Academic Sources on Managed Bee Populations

Pesticide Industry Source

12.2.3 Sargassum

Ecological Expansion

Ecological Causes: Fertilizer and Climate Change

Ecological Cost

Economic Costs: Mexico: Cleanup

Economic Costs: Mexico: Tourism

Economic Costs: Caribbean

Economic Gains: Fertilizer

Economic Gains: Food

Economic-Ecological Gains: Biogas

Economic-Medical Gains: Antibiotic

13.0.0 Socialist Theory

13.1.0 Meta: On The Nature Of Theory

13.1.1 Dogmatism

Marx's View Not a Dogma to Be Learned by Heart

Marx Not a Marxist: Out of Context

^ search "revolutionary phrase-mongering" for more context

Mao: Marxism-Leninism Must Not Be a Dogma

Luxemburg: Marxism Is Socialism

Modern Writers

13.1.2 Gotchas For "read Theory!"

Das Kapital

if someone claims to have read "Das Kapital":

Gotha Programme

if someone claims to have read Critique of the Gotha Programme:

Origin of Family and the State

if someone claims to have read Origin of the Family and the State:

- ask them what the three stages of hitherto existing civilization are; roughly "tribal", "feudal", "capitalist" is acceptable

13.1.3 Morality In Theory Vs Scientific Socialism

Cohen

13.2.0 Marxian Economics: General

13.2.1 Concentration Of Capital: Strong Evidence For

Effect on Policy

13.2.2 Alienation And Capitalism (medium-strength Evidence)

Marx Quotes on Source of Alienation

Extent of Job Dissatisfaction

Supervision, Routinization and Alienation

Powerlessness and Alienation

13.2.3 Bad Theory: Immiseration Theory / Biological Minimum Wages

Summary

Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels, and Rosa Luxemburg all claimed that real wages under capitalism would tend to decline in real terms until they hit a "starvation", "famine", "biological", etc. minimum limit (below which workers would be unable to maintain and reproduce themselves). This is incorrect, as real wages have risen explosively since the 1820's.

Real Wages Have Increased

The Engels Pause and Stagnating Real Wages in Marx's Time

But Marx Rejected the Iron Law of Wages!

But What About Baumol 1983? Literal Misquotes! He Chops Up Quotes

Marx Quotes: No Increase in Real Wages

Marx Quotes: No Increase in Real Wages, Despite Worker Struggle

Marx Quotes: No Increase in Real Wages of English Workers

Engels Quote: No Increase in Real Wages

Luxemburg Quote: No Increase in Real Wages

Luxembourg Summaries: No Increase in Real Wages

Marx Quote: Decrease in Labor Share of Income

Luxemburg Quote: Decrease in Labor Share of Income

Luxemburg Quote: In Context, Does Not Contradict Above Because Increased Means of Subsistence Are Offset by Increased Population

More Reading to Do on the Topic

13.3.0 Marxian Economics: Falling Rate Of Profit

13.3.1 Falling Rate Of Profit: Is It Real?

Terminology

rate of profit = r = (surplus value) / (capital invested) = (unpaid value of products of labor) / (variable capital invested and constant capital invested)

return = R = (net change in value) / (initial value) = (final value - initial value) / (initial value)

rate of return on investment = r = R/t = (return) / (number of time periods)

return on investment = ROI = (net income) / (investment) = (income - investment) / (investment)

Studies Suggesting No Systematic Trend in Rate of Profit: Present-Day

Studies Suggesting Increase of Rate of Profit: Historical

Studies Suggesting Decline of Rate of Profit

Non-Marxian Studies: Secular Stagnation: Decline of Productivity and Growth (But Not Necessarily of Profit!)

13.3.2 Falling Rate Of Profit: Decline Of Growth And Investment Studies

Rates of Growth Over Time: Predicted by Both Marxian and Accounting Rate of Profit

Decline of Investment Over Time: World Data: Very Slow, if Happening

Investment Over Time: Us Data: Long Timeframe:

13.3.3 Falling Rate Of Profit: Decline Of Growth And Investment Data

Terminology

"Depreciation, also known as Consumption of Fixed Capital"

net investments = gross investment minus depreciation

investments includes financial investments

GFCF = gross fixed capital formation = value of net additions to fixed assets (excluding financial assets, stocks of inventories, other operating costs)

Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA)

Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj)

Fred Categories

GDP

Investment

Depreciation

Rate of Profit

Identity Relation: 2020 Data

Gross: 4393

CFC-p: 2950

CFC-g: 608

Net: 834

4393 - 2950 - 608 = 834

Decline of Investment Over Time: Us Data: Very Slow, if Happening

13.3.4 Falling Rate Of Profit Is Bad Theory: Crises Over Time

Crises (Falling)

Volatility (Falling)

Volatility: To Read

13.4.0 Marxian Economics: Labor Theory Of Value

13.4.1 Labor Theory Of Value: Terminology

use-value is the utility of a given good to a given consumer (can vary across consumers)

exchange-value is the value for which a good can be exchanged from one person to another (aka price)

capital-v Value or just "value" is the abstract, combined value of a good

labor - physical act of labor, what proletariat does

labor power - capacity to do labor, what proletariat sells to bourgeoise

Marx Quotes: Labor vs Labor Power

Marx Quotes: LTV Only Applies to Averages of Goods

13.4.2 Labor Theory Of Value: Critique 1: The Mainstream Theory Of General Equilibrium

Summary

The mainstream economic theory of price is a combined supply-side and demand-side model called general equilibrium. Its modern form was formally stated by Ken Arrow and Gerard Debreu in the 1950's. Classical economists Adam Smith and Karl Marx argued that the relative ratio of usual prices (exchange-values) of two goods should be equal to the ratio of labor-time required to usually produce the good. There is no reason to believe price is determined only on the supply side.

General Equilibrium Texts

The LTV as a Supply-Side Theory

Smith Quote: Primitive Society

Marx Quote: All Societies

13.4.3 Labor Theory Of Value: Other Marx Quotes

Marx: LTV Only Applies to Averages of Goods

Marx: Only Socially Necessary Productive Labor Counts

13.4.4 Labor Theory Of Value: Magarino Quotes

13.4.5 Labor Theory Of Value: Critique 3: Unnecessary To Demonstrate Exploitation

Alternative Explanation for Exploitation

Other Substances Than Labor Can Also Be Exploited

13.4.6 Labor Theory Of Value: Critique 2: How To Measure Abstract Labor?

Nitzan Summary

Robinson Critique

Nitzan-Bichler First Critique: Unmeasurable Elementary Particle

13.4.7 Labor Theory Of Value: Evidence 1: Cross-sectional Value Correlations

Summary

The correlation between hours of labor in a sector and output of that sector is very weak evidence, as it is a spurious correlation largely based on sector size.

Kliman 2002 Introduces the Spurious Correlation Critique

Unfavorable Studies: Kliman 2004

Unfavorable Studies: Kliman 2005

Unfavorable Studies: Nitzan and Bichler

Cockshott's Response to Nitzan and Bichler

Blair Fix's Response to Cockshott

Favorable Studies: Cockshott, Cottrell, Zacharaiah

^ all three author's arguments above are vulnerable to Kliman's critique that total size is the cause of spurious correlation

Favorable Studies: Shaikh

^ shaikh's argument in all of the above papers is vulnerable to Kliman's critique that total size is the cause of spurious correlation

Favorable Studies: Tsoulfidis and Paitaridis

13.4.8 Labor Theory Of Value: Evidence 2: Prices Vs Supply

13.4.9 Summary

The stickiness of prices is **very weak evidence** for the labor theory of value. It can easily be explained with sticky prices, existing stocks of goods, co-movement of supply and demand, etc. This leaves little need for the LTV (a more extraordinary claim).

How Long Do Sticky Prices Last?

Business Cycle Supply and Price Variation

13.4.10 Labor Theory Of Value: Evidence 3: Correlation Of Wage/capital Ratio And Profit Ratio

High-Capital Low-Profit (Medium Quality, but Neoclassical Makes Similar Prediction)

13.5.0 Historical Materialism And Class Struggle

13.5.1 Class Structure: Have We Entered Managerial Capitalism?

Dumeil-Levy Thesis: Managers Have Displaced Capitalists

Capitalists: People Who Earn Sufficient Capital Gains to Choose Whether to Labor or Not

Roemer: Neoclassical Maximizing and Wealth Inequality Is Sufficient to Yield Class

Employment of the Highest-Income People in the USA (Yes, They Do Work)

Managers vs Workers

Marx Quotes on "Functioning Capitalists" (Owner-managers) Declining and Money-Capitalists (Owners) Emerging

13.5.2 On The Nature Of The State

Marxist Definition of the State

Engels Quotes: State as Tool of Class Oppression

Engels Quotes: Government and Authority

13.5.3 Stadial / Stage View Of History / Dialectical Materialism / Economic Determinism

Pure Stadial History and Pure Determinist/Materialist History Do Not Exist

re is no guarantee of survival, let alone of fulfillment of potentials perceived in yet-to-appear stages of development.5 Theo- retical determinacy at the level

Stadial Thinking: marxists.org

Marx and Engels Quotes on Stadial Stages

Capitalism Produces Growth, Which Is Key to Producing Communism

Capitalism Produces Growth

13.5.4 Post-scarcity And Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism

Engels Quotes About Increased Machinery and Achieving Socialism-Communism

Marx: Consequences of Increased Automation on Nature of Labor

Marx, Luxemburg: Contradiction of Capitalism and Full Automation

13.6.0 Justifications For Socialism: Scientific Socialism And Ethical Socialism

13.6.1 Ethical Socialism: Marx Rejected Explicit Ethical Socialism

Is There a Consensus? Authors Disagree

Why It Matters: Communism Deserves Moral Justification

Anti-Moralism: Marx Rejected Ethical Postulates

Non-Moralism: Marx Rejected Doctrinal/Universal Morality but Not Rejecting Moral Values

Moralism: Marx Had a Moral System, but Did Not Explicitly State It

Moralism With Performative Non-Moralism: Marx Rejected Morality to Distinguish Himself, but Accepted It

Marx Anti-Moralist Quotes

Marx Nonmoralist Quotes

Marx Moralist Themes

Marx Moralist Quotes

13.6.2 Socialism As Extension Of Liberalism

Engels Quotes

13.7.0 Reformism: Empirical Evidence

Social Spending (Good Trend)

State Spending (Vast Majority Is for Left-Wing Relevant Causes)

Democracy (Good Trend)

Calnitsky: Parliamentary Cretinism

Luxemburg: Progressively Socializing Is Purely Imaginary

Retrenchment and Asymmetric Polarization

Workers and Democracy TODO

Rasmussen Todo

European Social Democracy: Rise and Fall (Bad Trend)

Causes of Decline of Social Democracy

Causes of Rise of New Radical Left Parties

Precarity (Good Trend)

Unions of Workers (Bad Trend)

Effects of Politics on Unionization

Nationalizations

Inequality (Good Trend)

Poverty: Usa

Poverty: Worldwide: Income

^ this

Poverty: Worldwide: Concrete

13.7.4 Revolutions In The Rich World Or Democracies: Rare

France 1968: Protests

summary: in Mai 68, from 1968 May 2 to June 23, a wildcat (spontaneous) general strike was held by workers, who physically occupied plants, who followed the lead of students in taking over buildings in the month before.

France 1968: Elections

France 1968: Marcuse

France 1968:

"""The workplace democracy was in fact very limited. In only about a fifth of workplaces did a general assembly involving all the workers make decisions and in only about a seventh were the strike committees actually elected by the strikers. There was not attempt by the strike committees to form federated and coordinating bodies. Nor were their attempts t restart workplaces and services under workers self-management to inspire others about what could be done.""" [todo see if other articles prove this]

13.7.5 Violence And Nonviolence: Chenowith And Stefan

Summary

Outcomes

Nonviolent Better for Each Outcome Type

Nonviolent Better Over Time

Nonviolent Better Against Strong States

Sources

13.7.6 Violence And Nonviolence: Protests And Riots

Nonviolent Protest Effects: Positive Political Outcomes

Violent Protest Effects: Negative Political Outcomes

Violent Protest Effects: Negative Economic Outcomes

13.7.7 Demobilization: How Social Movements Die

13.7.8 Davenport 2015: Defines A "social Movement Organization" (SMO) And Explains How They Die (are "demobilized); Offers Three External Methods ("killing From The Outside": "resource Depletion", "problem Depletion", "state Repression") And Five Internal Methods ("killing From The Inside": "burnout", "factionalization / Polarization", "lost Commitment", "membership Loss", "rigidity"): Https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1163827921522282567/image.png How Social Movements Die: Repression And Demobilization Of The Republic Of New Africa

13.7.9 On Socialism And Fun

Summary

Various Lefties in Support of the Utility/Importance of Fun

On the Soviet Reader

Working Class Library Sources

Working Class Library Background Sources

13.7.10 Civil Rights Era Polling, Popularity, And Tactics

Civil Rights Movement Leader Tactics

Racial Acceptance Trends: Generally Quick-Ish Tolerance Increase From 40's-50's

Freedom Rides: Unfavorable

March on Washington: Unfavorable

March on Washington:

Civil Rights Act: Favorable

Bloody Sunday: Favorable of Civil Rights Groups

13.7.11 Unequal Exchange, Social Democracy, Labor Aristocracy Theory

Engels Quotes: Yes, He Supported Labor Aristocracy Theory

Lenin Quotes: Yes, He Supported Labor Aristocracy Theory

13.7.12 Unequal Exchange: Is The Global North Exploiting The Global South? How Much?

Background: List of Major Theories of Trade

Definitions and Summary, Pro-Ue

Quantification, Pro-Ue: Hickel Et Al 2022

Quantification, Pro-Ue: Hickel Et Al 2021

Quantification, Pro-Ue: Cardechi Roberts 2019

Quantification, Pro-Ue: Cope Kerswell 2016

^ Hickel 2017: """This is a conservative estimate, they add. It assumes that southern workers are far less productive than their northern counterparts; but the productivity gap may not be as big as we think. In fact, southern workers are probably since these days many of them work in foreign-owned factories (think of Apple s iPad factories) with highly efficient technology and rigid , designed to extract as much as possible from every movement. If this is true, then the hidden transfer of value may be as large as ( 3.8tn) each year."""

Critique of Productivity, Pro-Ue, Orthodox Marxist

13.7.13 Naxalites: Modern Revolution, Failure

Strength and Scope

13.7.14 Shining Path: Modern Revolution, Failure [sendero Luminosa, SLU Or Communist Party Of Peru, PCP Or PCP-SL]

13.7.15 Is The Truth And Reconciliation Commission Reliable?

Collapse After 1992

Killing Estimates: High-Govt, Low-Sp Estimates

Critiquing the Above Estimates

Killing Estimates: Low-Govt, High-Sp Estimates

Killing Estimates: The Truth and Reconciliation Commission [Comisi N De La Verdad Y Reconciliaci N, CVR]

Truth and Reconciliation Commission: General Info

Shining Path Frequently Executed of Elected Officials

Shining Path Violence Legitimized the Fujimori Regime's Seizure of Power in 1992

Peruvian Gov't Conducted Genocide via Sterilization of Indigenous People

Peruvian Gov't Enabled Mass Sexual Violence Against Imprisoned People

Shining Path: Mass Killings of Indigenous

Internal Conflict Displaced Hundreds of Thousands

13.7.16 Policy Bias

Summary

Can you change political views from above through imposing policy shifts? Causal evidence from the USA suggests not; mass political views must change from below.

Imposition of Gay Marriage by the Supreme Court Increased Anti-Gay Prejudice in States Which Did Not Have Legal Gay Marriage

Police Affirmative Action May Have Caused White Flight

13.8.0 Reformism: Theory Arguments And Quotes

13.8.1 Summaries Of Marx & Engels' Positions On Reform And Revolution

Summary

Marx and Engels never accepted reformism, but they shifted towards accepting it over time, particularly as they saw the successes of universal suffrage and the German Social Democratic Party. Engels landed somewhere near Kautsky's

Has Brief Excellent Summaries of Kautsky and Lenin's Path to Socialism [TODO]

^ extremely good quotes in chapter 3

Researcher Opinions

Nimtz: Engels Remained a Revolutionary Who Saw Voting as Nothing More Than a Guauge of Working Class Power

13.8.2 Marx Quotes

Marx Quote: Reform Is Possible in Certain Institutions

Marx Story: Revolutionary Phrase-Mongering

check citation 9 and 41

13.8.3 Engels Quotes: Probably Supported "revolutionary Social Democracy", Without Explicitly Doing So

Engels Quotes: Reform Is Impossible Even to Acheive Universal Suffrage

Engels Quotes: Communist Power May Be Achieved Either Peacefully or Violently

Revolution Is Necessary

Was No Lover of Peace

Dictatorship of the Proletariat Good

Voting Is Just a Guage of Working Class Strength, Which Will Drive Capitalists to Overthrow Democracy

Socialist Party Is Unstoppable Power

13.8.4 Karl Marx: Theory Of Catastrophism

Alternate Names

Collapse of capitalism

Summary of Marx's Two Theories of Crises

Critical Summary

falling rate of profit + overaccumulation --> increasingly slow growth and increasingly strong crises

View of Modern Scholarship

Theory of Accumulation Was Common: See Eg Keynes on Overaccumulation

John Maynard Keynes, 1936 General Theory of Employment, lnterest and Money, pp. 1 29-1 3 l: When involuntary unemployment exists, the marginal disutility of labour is necessarily less than the utility of the marginal product. [ ... ] Pyramid-building, earthquakes, even wars may serve to increase wealth, if the education of our slatesmen on the principles of the classical economics stands in the way of anything better. [ ... ]Just as wars have been the only form of large-scale loan expenditure which statesmen have thought justifiable, so gold-mining is the only pretext for digging holes in the ground which has recommended itself to bankers as sound finance; and each of these activities has played its part in progress - failing something better. Ancient Egypt was doubly fortunate, and doubtless owed to this its fabled wealth, in that it possessed two aclivities, namely pyramid-building as weil as the search for precious metals, the fruits of which, since they could not serve the needs of man by being consumed, did not stale with abundance.

Theory of Falling Profit Rate Was Common: See Eg John Smith and John Stuart Mill

these quotes are probably in Eltis 2000 TODO

13.8.5 Rosa Luxemburg: Revolutionary Theory Of Catastrophism

Reform vs Revolution Is Not a Binary Choice

Catastrophism Is Not Mechanistic

Cause of Catastrophe: Overaccumulation (Insufficient Effective Demand)

Not the Cause of Catastrophe: Falling Rate of Profit (Too Slow)

^ in adition to Luxemburg, there is no reason to believe that capitalism faces more crises or sees a falling rate of investment: see the "rate of profit" section

Delaying Catastrophe: Imperialism Expands Markets Universally

Failure of Luxemburgian Catastrophism: Overaccumulation Model Itself

Failure of Luxemburgian Catastrophism: Other Main Model Assumptions

Catastrophism Contradicts Reformism

13.8.6 Revolutionary Situation: Definition And Theory

Terminology

Blogpost Summary

Importance of Revolutionary Situation

Lenin 1918: <> The Proletarian Revolution and the Renegade Kautsky """Secondly, it is obligatory for a Marxist to count on a European revolution if a revolutionary situation exists. It is the ABC of Marxism that the tactics of the socialist proletariat cannot be the same both when there is a revolutionary situation and when there is no revolutionary situation."""

Lenin Definition in 1913

Lenin Definition in 1915

Lenin Definition in 1917

Lenin Definition in 1920

Misattributed Quote: Mao on Revolutionary Situation

Mao: When Revolutionary Struggle Is Inevitable

Mao: On the Subjective and Objective Forces of the Revolution in China and Europe

Mao: On the Subjective and Objective Forces of the Revolution in China

13.8.7 Random Marxist Quotes

Marx Quote: The State of the Future

Engels Quote: Free Trade

Debs Quote

13.9.0 Socialist Theory On Internationalism

13.9.1 Ww1: Social Patriotism, Defencism, Internationalism, Defeatism: Kautsky And Lenin

Summary

Kautsky: Not Clear Which Victor Is Better for Workers and Democracy

Kautsky: Defencism Is Correct

13.9.2 The Bolshevik Revolution: Kautsky And Lenin

Todo Reread XXX

13.9.3 21st Century: Leftist Internationalism

Summary

The United Nations is good. It would be gooder if it were stronger.

Todo Reread

13.10.0 Market Socialism

13.10.1 Market Socialism: Marx Was Opposed

Why Marx Was Wrong

Marx on Market Socialism Proper: Strongly Opposed

Marx Quotes on Capitalism and Growth

13.10.2 Cooperatives: Marx Not Opposed, Doesn't Solve Capitalism

Marx Quotes on Nature of Competition: Capitalists Not Evil, Laws Can Force Good Behavior

Marx Quotes on Origin of Worker-Manager Antagonism

Marx Quotes on Alienation in Cooperatives

14.0.0 Immigration

14.1.0 Scope Of Immigration

14.1.1 Immigration To The Usa

Scope of Immigration in the Usa

Scope of Illegal Immigration the Usa

14.1.2 Immigration To Europe

Scope of Immigration in Europe

14.1.3 Immigration Internationally

Why Don't Africans Move to Africa: They Do

Why Don't Whites Move to Africa: They Do

14.2.0 Economics And Immigration

14.2.1 Employment Rate / Wages And Immigration

Employment + Wages

Employment and Wages: Meta-Analysis

Employment and Wages: Single Studies

Employment Rate of Refugees

14.2.2 Economic Growth And Immigration

Productivity Growth

Proportion of Economic Growth Going to Immigrants vs Natives

Innovation Growth

Brain Drain Appears Not to Be Real

14.2.3 Labor Mobility Is Labor Power

Historical Natural Experiment: Iceland

Student Debt Relief as Labor Mobility

Todo Reread

14.2.4 Housing Prices And Immigration

Rent/Housing

14.2.5 Fiscal Impacts Of Immigration

Welfare Use by Immigrants

Tax Payments of Illegal Immigrants

14.3.0 Crime And Immigration

14.3.1 Crime And Immigration In The Modern Usa

American Legal Immigrants: Lower Crime: Legal Only

American Legal Immigrants: Lower Crime: Refugee

American Illegal: Lower Crime

Breakdown by Race (They Always Pivot to Race Lmao)

Bad Alternative Hypothesis "Study"

14.3.2 Crime And Immigration In Britain

Acid Attacks

Child Sexual Abuse

14.3.3 Crime And Immigration In Germany

Overall Crime Rate Over Time

Controlling for Age

Rapefugees Website

14.3.4 Crime And Immigration In Sweden

Scope of Crime Committed by Asylum Seekers

Rape: Police Report Data

Rape: Convictions Data

Sexual Assault

Don't Cite the Swedish Crime Survey

14.4.0 White Nationalist Talking Points About Immigration

14.4.1 Early Immigration Laws In The Usa And "posterity" Or "progeny"

Demographic Makeup of the Usa in 1790: Mostly Brits, Mostly Protestants

Us Naturalization Laws Over Time

Inclusivist Founder Quotes About "Posterity"

Exclusivist Founder Quotes About "Posterity"

14.4.2 Hart-celler Act Of 1965

Popular Support for the Act in Opinion Polls

14.4.3 Immigration And White Genocide (or: What Is The "demographic Transition"?)

Anglo-Saxon Ruling Class in the Usa: Historical Counterexample

Demographic Transition

Projections of Fertility Worldwide

Projections of Fertility in the Usa

14.4.4 South African White Genocide

Statistics: Overall

Statistics: Race

Statistics: Reliability

No Evidence That Farm Attacks Are Motivated by Race

Genocide Watch Is Not Credible

Eff Polls Very Poorly

Eff Was Condemned by Anc

14.5.0 US Border Policy

14.5.1 Todo

14.5.2 History

Background: Eisenhower 1954 Plan

Background: Start of Modern Mass Detention

Background: Scope of Internment

What's the Alternative?

Worldwide Comparison: Biggest

14.5.3 Purpose: Punishment As Deterrence

Inhumane Purpose

Ineffective Outcomes

14.5.4 Problems

Private Operators: Vast Majority

Rural Areas: Vast Majority

14.5.5 Alternatives

Alternatives to Detention: List

Alternatives to Detention: Human Rights Benefits

Alternatives to Detention: Efficacy

The Pilot Alternative: Family Case Management Program (FCMP)

15.0.0 Firearms

15.0.1 Summary

The Problem

CHGO = civilian household gun ownership

[1] CHGO has many, large negative health outcomes: Higher suicide, higher homicide, higher accidents, associated economic costs

[2] CHGO has few, small positive health outcomes: Individual hunting, individual target practice

[3] CHGO has little impact on outcomes for democracy, freedom, worker power, and minority power

The Solutions: Consumer Side

[1] Short-term: Legalize most or all drugs, end poverty via welfare, shift justice system from retributive to rehabilitative: Reduce violent crime in general, reducing gun deaths

[2] Short-term: Make gun licenses mandatory for new gun purchases, waiting periods mandatory: Significantly reduce suicide and homicide by delaying purchase, and overall gun levels by increasing difficulty of purchase (6 states: DC, CA, WA, IL, MA, NY)

[3] Short-term: Make gun safes mandatory for new gun purchases: Enormously reduce household gun theft, which is the primary source of illegal guns

[4] Short-term: Enact domestic violence restraining/protection order (DVRO or DVPO) gun relinquishment laws: Significantly reduce intimate partner homicide, the 2nd largest category of gun violence

[5] Short-term: Enact extreme risk protection order (ERPO) gun relinquishment laws: Allows family members, police to petition a court that someone's firearms present a risk to themselves or others; Significantly reduce suicide, may reduce mass shootings

[6] Short-term: Prohibit gun purchases among people under 21: 70% of murder occurs before offenders reach 30 years old; restricting guns from younger people may significantly reduce homicide

[7] Long-term: Shift ownership entirely from CHGO to community armories: Maintain right to bear arms while reducing likelihood of theft, suicide, or homicide

The Solutions: Producer Side

[8] Short-term: Increase taxes on civilian gun factories and fund voluntary gun buybacks: Reduces gun levels and is easily worth it (guns cause $176bn/yr in damages)

[9] Long-term: Prohibit commercial gun production: Requires less state coercion than seizing guns from houses and significantly reduces future gun supply

Good Existing Law

[0] Short-term: Enact serious crime gun relinquishment laws: Persons convicted of serious crimes (over 1y in prison) should be prohibited from gun ownership (49 states, Vermont does violent crime only)

15.0.2 Scope Of The Effects Of Guns

Health Harms: Deaths

Health Harms: Victims Disproportionately Live in Poor, Single-Male Areas

Economic Harms: Overall (Including Indirect Costs)

Economic Harms: Hospitalization (Including Indirect Costs)

Economic Harms: Hospitalization (Only Direct)

Economic Gains: Overall (Including Indirect Gains)

Economic Gains: Overall (Only Direct)

15.1.0 More Guns Cause More Death

15.1.1 Violent Crime And Homicide: Increased By Guns

Causal: Right to Carry Increased Violent Crime

Causal: Concealed Carry Increased Violent Crime

Causal: Waiting Periods Reduced Homicides and Suicides

Correlation: International Comparison

Correlation: Before and After

Pseudo-Causal and Very-High Quality: Multiple Restrictive Laws Considered

Correlation: State Laws

Correlation: State Gun Prevalence

Correlation: County Gun Prevalence

15.1.2 Mass Shootings: Increased By Guns

General Gun Policy

Firearm Type

Magazine Type: Correlational

Red Flag Laws and Extreme Risk Protection Orders (Erpos)

Perpetrator Demographics

15.1.3 Suicide: Increased By Guns

Theory: Model of Suicide

Causation: Israel Defense Force

Causation: Permit to Purchase Laws

Correlation: Meta-Study

Correlation: Mortality Follow-Back Surveys

Correlation: State Gun Prevalence

Not Causal Link: Guns Don't Appear to Cause Suicidality

Method Restriction: Examples

Suicide Attempts: Efficacy by Method

Suicide Attempts: High Impulsivity

Suicide Attempts: Low Repeat Attempt Rate

15.1.4 Voluntary Buyback: Ineffective

Theory: Increased Production

Inefficacy

Australia Buyback [Unformatted, Unread]

15.2.0 Defensive Use

15.2.1 Defensive Gun Use Infrequent

Scope

Surveys: Frequency: Very Low

Response to Hemenway #1: "Why Trust Reported Numbers?"

Response to Hemenway #2: "What About Surveys With 2.5 Million Usages?"

Mortality Followback: Frequency: One City

Correlation: Homicide and Suicide

15.2.2 Domestic Violence

Intimate Partner Homicide: Framework: Model

Intimate Partner Homicide: Causational: Policy

Intimate Partner Homicide: Causational: Mortality Followup

Intimate Partner Homicide: Correlation at Victim Level

Intimate Partner Homicide: Correlation at State Level

Intimate Partner Violence: Meta-Analysis

15.3.0 Popularity And Psychology

15.3.1 Pollings

Surveys: Firearm Owner Demography

Surveys: Firearm Control Is Popular

15.3.2 Firearm Ownership And Psychology

Racism

Fear

Ideology

Intelligence

15.4.0 Protection From The State

15.4.1 Freedom

15.4.2 Police Brutality

Correlational Studies: Laws and Fatal Shootings

Correlational Studies: Prevalence and Fatal Police Shootings

15.4.3 Reducing Gun Theft

Stolen Firearms

Trafficking

Policy

Use in Crime

15.4.4 Mental Illness Not Cause Of Firearm Violence

International

United States

Lone Wolves

Poor Prediction by Psychologists

15.4.5 Firearm Types

Correlation: Caliber

15.5.0 Constitutionality

15.5.1 Overall 2A Jurisprudence

Terminology

2-part approach: asks whether law meaningfully restricts 2A rights (such as self-defense) and then asks whether the state has grounds for this restriction (under the 3-tier scrutiny approach), nearly unanimously accepted by courts

text, history, and tradition approach: asks whether law aligns with interpretation of historical ("Founding") documents, generally preferred by 2A advocates

Timeline of Landmark Cases

Success Rate Over Time

15.5.2 Two-part Test

Summary of Two-Part: Congressional Research Service

Two-Part Test Is Judicial Consensus

Two-Part Test Approach: Being Applied!

Text, History, and Tradition Approach: Not Being Applied!

15.5.3 Specific Legislation Constitutionality

Unanimous Court Support for Certain Prohibitions

Statistical Court Support for Prohibitions by Category

Gun Permits

Felon Posssession Ban

Assault Weapon Ban

Safe Storage Requirement

15.5.4 Gun Quotes From Major Socialist Theorists

Summary

Engels 1895

With this successful utilization of the general franchise, an entirely new method of the proletarian struggle had come into being[.] [....] Bourgeoisie and Government feared far more the legal than the illegal action of the workers party, more the successes of the elections than those of rebellion. [....] The irony of history turns everything upside down. We, the "revolutionists," ... thrive much better with legal than with illegal means in forcing an overthrow. [....] [I]f we are not insane enough to favor them by letting them drive us into street battles, nothing will in the end be left to them but themselves to break through the legality that is so fatal to them.

"""The rebellion of the old style, the street fight behind barricades, which up to 1848 gave the final decision, has become antiquated. .... Already in 1849 the chances of success were rather poor. .... [T]he barricade had a moral rather than a material effect. It was a means to shake the solidity of the military. If it held until that had been accomplished, the victory was won; if not, it meant defeat. .... Since then, much more has been changed, all in favor of the military. .... Does the reader understand why the ruling classes, by hook or by crook, would get us where the rifle pops? Why they charge us with cowardice because we will not get down into the street where we are sure of our defeat in advance?"""

Marx 1850

16.0.0 Miscellaneous

16.1.0 Jews: The International Jewish Conspiracy

16.1.1 Slave Ownership Was Not Dominated By Jewish People

Memes

Data

16.1.2 Slave Ship Ownership Was Not Dominated By Jewish People

Memes

Data

16.1.3 Judeo-bolshevism: The Soviet Union Was Not Dominated By Jewish People

Summary

Jewish people were very overrepresented in some institutions of Soviet power, but only slightly overrepresented in all institutions of Soviet power, especially when Jewish urbanicity and Soviet preference for urban residents is taken into account. Regardless, Jewish people made up a small minority of powerholders, and could not have controlled the Soviet Union. Beyond that, Communist Jews saw themselves as committed Marxists, firmly opposed to Judaism, who did not prioritize their Jewish ethnicity: any claims of a Jewish plots to control the Soviet Union must contend that a small minority of committed communist atheists were actually mere puppets of their spooky scary evil Jewish genetics.

Memes

Overview of the Research: Jews Were Likely Overrepresented, but Most Were Apolitical (Like Most People) and Most Gravitated to Jewish Organizations

Demographic Data

16.1.4 Proportion Of Russian And Soviet Population

1897 Census

1926 Census

1939 Census

16.1.5 Best Source: Pinkus 1988

Pinkus 1988: Reliable Source: Summary

Pinkus 1988: Reliable Source: Leadership

^ Top Troikas: 0/3 from 1903-1905, 1/3 from 05-07, 1/3 from 07-11, 2/3 from 11-14, 1/3 from 14-17

^ Middle level: unclear size

^ 1907: 3/15

^ Prague 1912: 2/6

^ April 1917: 3/9

^ August 1917: 6/21

Pinkus 1988: Reliable Source: Why Overrepresented in Leadership?

Pinkus 1988: Reliable Source: Mass Membership

^ cannot find original copy of this source!

16.1.6 Sources Cited By Nazis

Common Source: Vladimir Putin

Common Source: Sever Plocker, "Stalin's Jews"

Common Source: Timothy Snyder's "Bloodlands"

Common Source: George Simons, "Bolshevik Propaganda"

Common Source: Dr. Hermann Greife, "Slave Labor" or "Concentration Camps"

16.1.7 Judeo-bolshevism: Sovnarkom (SNK, Council Of People's Commissars)

Sovnarkom Ethnicities in Reality

Robert Wilton: Claimed SNK

16.1.8 Judeo-bolshevism: Central Committee (CPSU)

Central Committee Ethnicities in Reality

Robert Wilton: Central Committee: Reality

Robert Wilton: Claimed Central Committee

16.1.9 Judeo-bolshevism: Robert Wilton

Robert Wilton: Central Government of the Soviets

16.1.10 Judeo-bolshevism: 1921 Senate Committee (common Neo-nazi Source)

16.1.11 Judeo-bolshevism: Who Killed The Tsar / Czar (common Neo-nazi Talking Point)

16.1.12 Jewish Overrepresentation In The Civil Rights Movement: No Hard Evidence Seems To Exist

Studies With No Citations or Hard Evidence

Possible Sources of Hard Evidence

Commonly-Cited Example by Anti-Racist Jewish Groups

16.1.13 Involvement In American Politics

High Intermarriage Rates (Ie, Not "Multiculturalism for Three")

Polls of American Jews on Israel

Representation in College

Todo Unformatted Unread

16.2.0 Terrorism

16.2.1 Efficacy Of Terrorism Is Low

Study: Terrorism in War: Ineffective

^ Fortna 2015: list of groups and categorization is in APPENDIX The Cases. (government vs. rebels & year ended)

Study: Terrorism in General: Ineffective

Example: Leftist Revolution in Peru: Politically Ineffective

Terrorism in Israel: Politically Ineffective

16.2.2 Cost Of Terrorism: Large

Economic Cost

16.2.3 Left Wing Vs Right Wing Terrorism

Bias in Media Coverage of Terrorism

Levels of Left-Wing vs Right-Wing Terrorism

Datasets: ECDB

16.2.4 White Nationalist Terrorism / Right-wing Extremism / Reactionary Terrorism

Motivations

Polls

Incidents: Far-Right Terrorisms, Murders, and Attempted Murders in North America

16.2.5 Isis

Motivations

Public Opinion Polls

16.3.0 Artificial Intelligence AI

16.3.1 Artificial Intelligence Timelines

How Soon Will AI Be Able to Do Human Tasks?

16.4.0 Religion And Religiosity In General

16.4.1 Scope And Depth

Over Countries

Among Scientists

Among Philosphers

16.4.2 Religiosity Reduces Education Efficacy And Economic Growth

Pseudo-Causal Evidence: Countries With

Squicciarini (2020) documented that French areas that were more religious in the late 19th century were less likely to introduce new technical curriculum in schools, thus forgoing skills essential for experiencing the second industrial revolution in France

^ todo reread xxx:

For instance, the emphasis on tradition in most religions may discourage certain behaviors such as innovation and creativity, which are otherwise beneficial to economic growth (B enabou et al., forthc). B enabou, Ticchi, and Vindigni illustrate the potential contesting between the worldviews of science and religion in a theoretical model, where the recurrent arrival of scientific discoveries generate productivity gains, but at the same time threaten to erode religious beliefs by contradicting aspects of religious doctrines. As a result, religious elites have incentives to curb the development of science and new ideas. Examples abound of such conflicts, from the trial of Galilei in 1633 to President George W. Bush s restrictions on federal funding for embryonic stem-cell research. In support of the model, Benabou, Ticchi, and Vindigni uncover that contemporary countries or US states that are more religious have fewer patents per capita. An alternative model may explain the same tendency with substitution between religion and science; if intellectual resources can be used for either religious or scientific studies, religiously interested individuals may be more inclined to engage in religious studies, thus crowding out the study of science. The proposition is not that religion and science cannot go hand-in-hand. Indeed, there are several examples of great contributors to science who were deeply religious - perhaps most famously Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727). Also, some of Europe s largest universities - Bologna and Oxford for instance - were established by monasteries. Thus, it remains a matter of empirical testing whether religion and science contested or complemented one another.

^ todo reread xxx:

Along the same lines, Cantoni & Yuchtman (2013) argue that the introduction of a new, productive form of human capital, such as the emergence of modern science, depends on whether the government or church see the new knowledge as threatening to their position of power. The authors argue that Islamic elites who controlled educational institutions in the Middle Ages initially promoted the study of logic and science, because the gains from spreading these skills (more converts to Islam) outweighed the costs (potential criticism of the religious elites). This period of elite support for scientific study saw the flourishing of Islamic society. However, as Islam took over in the Middle East, the gains to elites from the study of logic and science declined. Elites started to oppress the study of science, and the Muslim world fell behind. Chaney (2016) provides econometric support for these ideas. He links the decline in scientific and technological production in the Muslim world in the late Medieval period to the extensive spread of madrasas, educational centers where Islamic law was taught. Using data on book production during the period 800-1800, Chaney documents a sharply rising trend in the proportion of religious books written, accompanied by a drop in original and scientific-technical books. With our data, we can test empirically whether something similar occurred within Europe.

Country-Wide Correlations Between Religiosity and Education: Negative

Country-Wide Correlations Between Religiosity and Life Expectancy, Infant Mortality, Compulsory Education: Negative

16.4.3 Religion And Psychology

Intelligence and Intuition

Addiction

Altruism and Religion

Suicide

16.4.4 Politics And Religion

Political Views in the Us

Democracy-Autocracy

Tolerance-Tradition: Overall

Tolerance-Tradition: Sexism

Tolerance-Tradition: Racism

Status Quo Justification

Humor

16.4.5 Health

16.5.0 Christianity

16.5.1 Leftist / Progressive Aspects Of Christianity

Leftist Bible Quotes

Blame Yourself for Lust, Not Women

Christianity and Debt Forgiveness / Debt Jubilees

16.5.2 Bullshit Bible Quotes

Bible Quote: Jesus Christ Was a Debate Bro

Bible Quote: The Day Zombies Stormed Jerusalem

Bible Quotes: Other Resurrections

16.5.3 Sources Todo

Sources to Cover: All Mentioned Here

Also Review These

16.5.4 Historicity: Overview

Summary

Just four non-Christian writers mentioned Jesus (or something plausibly about Jesus) within the first hundred years after his death: Pliny the Younger, Suetonius, Tacitus, Josephus. Of these, only Josephus mentions any details about Jesus. (The relevant passages in Josephus are also contested as possible forgeries.) Those rest say almost nothing of value about Jesus: Pliny claims his followers worship him "as a God", Suetonius is talking about someone else, Tacitus claims Jesus was "repressed" by Pontius Pilate in Judea. Mishnah sources were hundreds of years after Jesus' death and are unreliable.

Atheist Historicist Bart Erhman

Texts Which Do Not Mention Jesus

Sources Todo

16.5.5 Pliny: Genuine Early Extra-biblical Source, But Provides No Details About Jesus

Background

Pliny Is the First Pagan Source to Mention Jesus

Pliny: Didn't Investigate Anything Beyond Illegal Assembly

Text of Letter From Pliny to Trajan (Only Mention of "Christian" in His Letters)

Latin Text of Letter From Trajan to Pliny (Only Mention of "Christian" in His Letters)

Original Latin Text: Manuscript M.462 Contains No Relevant Passages

16.5.6 Suetonius: Plausible Early Extra-biblical Source

Suetonius Is the Second Pagan Source to Plausibly Mention Jesus, but It Doesn't

Text of Suetonius in English

Text of Suetonius in Latin

16.5.7 Tacitus: Genuine Early Extra-biblical Source

Background on Tacitus

Tacitus Is the Third Pagan Source to Mention Jesus

Authenticity of Christians in Tacitus: Weak

Even assuming the passage is totally genuine, two fires had destroyed much in the way of official documents Tacitus had to work with and it is unlikely that he would sift through what he did have to find the record of an obscure crucifixion which suggests that Tacitus was repeating an urban myth whose source was likely the Christians themselves,[3]:344

Authenticity of Nero-Fire Passage in Tacitus: Weak

There is much to question the provenance and veracity of Annals 15.44.[4] There is no other historical confirmation that Nero persecuted Christians for the burning of Rome. Josephus[5] and Pliny the Elder - who were both in Rome in 64 CE - didn't mention Christians at all, which seems unlikely if Nero had been blaming them for the fire. Seneca the Younger's lost On Superstition also didn't mention Christianity, according to Augustine in the 4th century. Furthermore, Neither Origen nor Tertullian use this passage despite referring to or citing Tacitus elsewhere.[6]

Translations of Tacitus: English

Original Specific Text of Tacitus: Chapter 44

Original Full Text of Tacitus: Medicean Manuscript M1 and M2

16.5.8 Josephus: Genuine Early Extra-biblical Source

Background on Josephus

Josephus Is the First Non-Christian Source to Mention Jesus

Josephus Passage 1: Jamesian Reference

16.5.9 Thallus: Alleged Early Extra-biblical Source

Thallus: Alleged Pagan Writer Who Verified Darkness After Christ's Crucifixion

16.5.10 Pilate: Alleged Early Extra-biblical Source (both Versions Are Fabricated)

16.5.11 Why Didn't The Romans Refute? They Weren't Interetsed

16.6.0 Islam

16.6.1 Literary Miracle Of The Qur'an / Poetic Miracle Of The Qur'an

General Criticisms

Al-Razi Quote

Specific Criticisms

Articles Defending [See if Anything Useful]

16.6.2 Scientific Foreknowledge: General Pages

Todo

16.6.3 Hijabs And Other Face Or Body Coverings

Level of Social Compulsion

Self-Reported Reasons Why Women Wear Hijabs: Most Mention Religion, Few Mention Compulsion

16.6.4 Muslims Shifting Toward Liberalism / Secularism

Rising Secularism in the Middle East

United States: Gay Acceptance

United States: Muslims Are Fairly Centrist and Move in Line With the Rest of the Population

Britain: Muslims Are Strongly Conservative and Are Only Slowly Liberalizing

16.7.0 Psychology

16.7.1 Political Beliefs: Overall

Meta-Methodology Comparison of American Libs, Cons, and Liberts

Extremism: Addiction to Community

16.7.2 Political Beliefs: Mental Illness

Todo

Todo: Also Has Religion and Mental Well-Being Studies

16.7.3 Trigger Warnings

Summary

Evidence for No Effect

Evidence for Negative Effect

16.7.4 Video Games And Violence

16.7.5 Social Media And Mental Health

Mental Health Outcomes

Productivity

16.7.6 Intelligence And Psychological Problems

Happiness

Overexciteability

Orchid Thesis

16.7.7 Psychology And Language

How Terms Affect Learning

16.8.0 Military Service

16.8.1 Military Recruitment Not Biased Towards Poor, Nonwhite People / Poverty Draft

Recruitment: Supply-Side

Recruitment: Demand-Side

16.8.2 Military Representation Not Biased Towards Poor, Nonwhite People / Poverty Draft

Representation: Income

Representation: Race

Representation: Requirements

Characteristics: Education

16.8.3 Military Fatalities Not Biased Towards Poor, Nonwhite People

Fatalities: Perspective

Fatalities: Income

Fatalities: Race

16.8.4 Effects Of Military Service

Effects: Income

Effects: Education

Effects: Gaps

16.9.0 Animal Agriculture, Veganism, And Pet Ownership

16.9.1 Animal Cognition

Animal Abilities

16.9.2 Vegetarianism And Veganism

Persuasion and Changing Behavior

Nutrition

Medical Expenses

Environmental Efficiency: Individual Foods

Environmental Efficiency: Whole Diets

Environmental Efficiency: Clothing

Agricultural Efficiency Is Low

Societal Efficiency Is Low

^ subsidies: """One study estimates that 63 percent of US subsidies benefit animal food producers. 18 Applying this percentage to the $57.3 billion farm subsidy total, and adding $2.3 billion for fish subsidies (see chapter 9), the total of annual subsidies to US producers of animal foods is an estimated $38.4 billion. 19"""

Price Elasticity of Animal Products [Todo]

A hefty pile of studies (419 at last count) measures the price elasticity of demand for animal foods that is, the relationship between prices and consumption. In 2010, a meta-study determined that a 1 percent change in the price of beef causes American consumption to change by about 0.75 percent. 33 In other words, notwithstanding all the other reasons why people buy beef including marketing, taste, and nutritional beliefs a 10 percent price change will shift consumption by about 7.5 percent. The study found that dairy has demand elasticity of 0.65, meaning that a 10 percent price change in dairy products causes consumption to change by about 6.5 percent. 34

Animal-Friendly Agriculture Is Insufficient

Expense: Good Descriptive Studies

Expense: Supplements

Expense: Bad Descriptive Studies

Berners-Lee et al. (2012) estimated that vegans save 14% on their grocery store purchases relative to meat eaters, but that estimate is not based on individual data, but an amalgamation of several datasets and various assumptions about how UK eating habits mimic those of the US. The Berners-Lee study separated vegetarians for vegans, and found that, of the two, vegans spent more on money.

Only one study (to our knowledge) has analyzed food expenditures at the individual level for those who are and are not vegetarians. Using a survey of 1600 Canadians, data were collected on vegetarian status (lacto-ovo vegetarians, to be specific) and self-reported monthly food expenditures. Results showed that, contrary to previous studies, vegetarians actually spent more money on food (Guillemette and Cranfield, 2012). [xxx todo reread]

16.9.3 Pet Ownership

Scope: Proportion and Expense

Effects: Meat Consumption

Effects: Health Benefits

Effects: Health Benefits: Economic Benefits (Bad Studies)

Effects: Psychological Benefits

16.9.4 Kosher And Halal Slaughter

Terminology

Legal Framework

Painfulness

16.10.0 Health And Wellness

16.10.1 Anti-depressants And Therapy Work

CBT Works: Increased Quality of Life

Ssri's Work: Reduced Depression

16.10.2 Diet And Longevity

Outcomes and Lifespan

Soylent

16.10.3 Alternative Medicine

16.10.4 Vaccines

16.10.5 Covid-19

Excess Mortality by Level of Vaccination

Effective Policies: Social Distancing

Effective Policies: Social Distancing, School Closure

Effective Policies: Paid Sick Leave

Fatalities: Median Age at Death

Efficacy of Vaccination: Large

Long Covid: Living Systemic Review

16.10.6 Covid-19 And Ivermectin

Meta-Studies: Only Includes Moderate and High-Quality Evidence

Ivermectin: List of Retracted Articles: Rothrock 2021

Ivermectin: Retracted Article: Hill 2021

Ivermectin: Retracted Article: Kory 2021

Ivermectin: Retracted Article: Bryant 2021

16.11.0 Philosophy

metaphysics external world: {non-skeptical realism, idealism, skepticism, ...}

epistemology: {empiricism, rationalism, ...}

epistemology of science: {scientific realism, structure realism, entity realism, instrumentalism, constructive empiricism / structuralism, general skepticism, positivism, ...}

16.11.1 Todo

see the big names of today like Lewis, Armstrong, Kripke, van Inwagen

16.11.2 Mind-independent External Reality

Summary of Questions

1: Existence: Does an external reality exist? --> ER existence question

2: Mind-independence: Does the ER exist independent of our thoughts/perceptions of it? --> Realism part 1, mind-independent external reality quesiton

3: Knowability: Can we reliably obtain knowledge about the MIER? --> Realism part 2, see empiricism or scientific realism sections

Summary of Viewpoints

Idealism: Hold that a mind-independent world exists, but that our senses, regardless of their reliability, don t perceive true reality

Skepticism: Hold that our senses are not generally reliable about the external world

Naive realism holds that our senses are universally/always reliable the external world

Non-skeptical realism: Non-skeptical realism holds that our senses are usually/often reliable

Philpapers Survey Results: MIEW Exists

16.11.3 Scientific Realism

Survey Results

Relevant Terms

Park 2019

16.11.4 Misc Epistemology Stuff

Empiricism Survey

Principles

ontological parsimony: """For example, according to your quotation, the author thinks that positing a noumenal realm does not give any theoretical benefits. So they think that it is better to be ontologically parsimonious and not posit it in the first place. It's generally thought that one does not need to show that a theoretical idea includes a blatant contradiction to choose to not endorse it. There are other epistemic virtues/vices like ontological parsimony, ideological parsimony, being in line with intuitions or current scientific understanding, etc."""

Epistemology of Science

Determinism: Quantum Is Truly Random

16.11.5 Misc Morality Stuff

Utilitarianism: Public Policy

16.12.0 Evolution Is True And Young-earth Creationism Is Insane

16.12.1 Evidence For Macroevolution

Examples of Observed Macroevolution

16.13.0 Death Toll Resources

16.13.1 Political Prisoners / Prisoners Of Conscience In The United States

Terminology

A political prisoner is anyone convicted for political beliefs or behavior that would not otherwise be illegal. A prisoner of conscience is a nonviolent political prisoner.

Wiki

Notes

16.13.2 Useful Soviet Original Documents [and Compilations/tabulations Thereof]

Sources

Tables

16.13.3 Soviet Death Toll Before Stalin

Purge of 1921

Resolution on the Red Terror

Red Terror: From 50k to 200k

In Crimea, B la Kun and Rosalia Zemlyachka, with Vladimir Lenin's approval,[28] had 50,000 White prisoners of war and civilians summarily executed by shooting or hanging after the defeat of general Pyotr Wrangel at the end of 1920. They had been promised amnesty if they would surrender.[29] This is one of the largest massacres in the Civil War.[30]

Chamberlin's Discussion (Probably the Best of All of the Above)

Red Terror: Pogroms

White Terror: Pogroms

Efficacy of Makhno's Forces

De-Cossackization: 10k to 500k

^ Despite there being more than a million Cossacks before 1917, very few people consider themselves Cossacks today.[7] Shane O'Rourke states that the de-Cossackization "was one of the main factors which led to the disappearance of the Cossacks as a nation".[7] Alexander Nikolaevich Yakovlev, head of the Presidential Committee for the Rehabilitation of Victims of Political Repression, notes that "hundreds of thousands of Cossacks were killed".[20] Robert Gellately claims that "the most reliable estimates indicate that between 300,000 and 500,000 were killed or deported in 1919 20" out of a population of around three million.[19]

The process has been described by scholar Peter Holquist as part of a "ruthless" and "radical attempt to eliminate undesirable social groups" that showed the Soviet regime's "dedication to social engineering".[10] [....] Peter Holquist states the overall number of executions is difficult to establish; in some regions, hundreds were executed, while the tribunal was very active in Khoper, with a one-month total of 226 executions. The Tsymlianskaia tribunal oversaw the execution of over 700 people. The Kotel'nikovo tribunal executed 117 in early May and nearly 1,000 overall. Others were not quite as active. The Berezovskaia tribunal made a total of twenty arrests in a community of 13,500 people. Holquist also notes that some of White reports of Red atrocities in the Don were consciously scripted for agitation purposes.[21] In one example, an insurgent leader reported that 140 were executed in Bokovskaia, but later provided a different account, according to which only eight people in Bokovskaia were sentenced to death, and the authorities did not manage to carry these sentences out. Holquist emphasizes that he is "not seeking to downplay or dismiss very real executions by the Soviets". Overall, he estimates a death toll of around 10,000 from de-Cossackization.[9]

16.13.4 Stalin Death Toll

NKVD Prisoner Massacres

Destruction Battalions

16.13.5 Black Book Of Communism

Frequency of Google Search Results

Frequency of Google Ngram Results

Fallout Between Courtois and Werth

Public Criticism of Courtois by the Main Authors of the Soviet Union and Vietnam Sections

Ideological Leanings of Key Authors: Werth

summary: Werth seems mostly non-political, probably leans center-right.

Number in Gulags -- Waiting on Email Back

Ideological Leanings of Key Authors: Courtois

summary: Courtois leans center-right or right.

Key Quotes From the Book: Introduction

Key Quotes From the Book: Soviet Section

Key Quotes From the Book: China Section

Summary of China Section

Alternate Sums of Death Tolls

Wikipedia total (from blog): 0.16 + 0.01 + c(0.2, 5) + c(15, 25) + c(0.5, 2) + 0.053 + c(15, 30) + c(0.4, 3.4) + c(0.144, 0.4) = 31.5 to 66.0 million

Maoist China caused the deaths of 0.16 to 0.186 million from 1927-31 repression in the Jiangxi Fujian Soviet, 0.01 to 0.02 million from the 1942-43 Yan'an Rectification Movement, 0.8 to 2.3 million from 1946-1957 Land Reform Movement and from 1950-1953 Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries, 2 to 27 million from the 1949-1978 laogai, 0.053 million from 1955-57 Sufan Movement anti-intellectual campaign, 15 to 30 million deaths caused by policy from 1959-61 Great Leap Forward Famine, 0.4 to 3.42 million from 1966-76 Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, and 0.144 to 0.4 million in mostly 1953-64 Tibet repression campaigns. c(0.16, 0.186) + c(0.01, 0.02) + c(0.8, 2.3) + c(2, 27) + 0.053 + c(15, 30) + c(0.4, 3.42) + c(0.144, 0.4) = 18.57 to 63.379

Other Laogai Estimates

Harry Wu Laogai

Forced Labor Under the Kuomintang

Massacres Under the Japanese Army

Nanjing: For data supporting the 100,000 figure, see David Askew, New Research on the Nanjing Incident , JapanFocus.org. Jean-Louis Margolin, Japanese Crimes in Nanjing, 1937 38 , China Perspectives 63 (January February 2006), pp.2 12, finds a minimally smaller number more likely. In 1997, six of the seven Japanese texts available to junior high students estimated the death toll as 100,000 200,000 (Takashi, note 22.)

Zhou Enlai Quote on 830,000 Killed [Accurate Quote, Did Say]

Mao Zedong Quote on 700,000 Killed [Accurate Quote, Did Say]

Mao Zedong Quote on 2 to 3 Million Killed [Misquote, Did Not Say]

Mao 1969: Long Live Mao Zedong Thought / Mao Zedong si xiang wan sui / Mao Zedong sixiang wanui /

Official Government Report: Zirong 1954

Shitty AFL-CIO Report: CIA-funded

Book Responses

Warren W. Smith, a broadcaster of Radio Free Asia (which was established by the US government), extrapolated a death figure of 400,000 from his calculation of census reports of Tibet which show 200,000 "missing" people.[61][62] The Central Tibetan Administration claimed that the number that have died of starvation, violence, or other indirect causes since 1950 is approximately 1.2 million.[63] According to Patrick French, the former director of the London-based Free Tibet Campaign and a supporter of the Tibetan cause who was able to view the data and calculations, the estimate is not reliable because the Tibetans were not able to process the data well enough to produce a credible total. French says this total was based on refugee interviews, but prevented outsider access to the data. French, who did gain access, found no names, but "the insertion of seemingly random figures into each section, and constant, unchecked duplication."[64] Furthermore, he found that of the 1.1 million dead listed, only 23,364 were female (implying that 1.07 million of the total Tibetan male population of 1.25 million had died).[64] Tibetologist Tom Grunfeld also finds that the figure is "without documentary evidence."[65] There were, however, many casualties, perhaps as many as 400,000.[66] Smith, calculating from census reports of Tibet, shows 144,000 to 160,000 "missing" from Tibet".[67] Courtois et al. forward a figure of 800,000 deaths and allege that as many as 10% of the Tibetan populace were interned, with few survivors.[68] Chinese demographers have estimated that 90,000 of the 300,000 "missing" Tibetans fled the region.[69] The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) denies this. Its official toll of deaths recorded for the whole of China for the years of the Great Leap Forward is 14 million, but scholars have estimated the number of the famine victims to be between 20 and 43 million.[70]

Critical Historian Reviews

16.13.6 North Korean Famine

Summary

Death Toll Estimates: Medium-Quality Studies

Death Toll Estimates: Low-Quality Studies

16.13.7 Great Leap Forward Death Toll Estimates

Summary of Some of the Complexities

Death Toll Estimates: High Quality Studies

Death Toll Estimates: Medium Quality Studies

Death Toll Estimates: Low Quality Studies

Death Toll Estimates: Todo

Infant Mortality Estimates From Retrospective Surveys

Causes of Decline in Grain Output

Death Toll Estimates: Chen Yizi (Very Bad)

Death Toll Estimates: Yang Jisheng's Tombstone (Bad)

Death Toll Estimates: Frank Dikotter's Mao's Great Famine (Bad)

16.13.8 Fake Gulag Death Rate Graph

Fake Graph

Source 1

Source 2

Better Source

16.13.9 Gulags After Stalin

Size of Gulags

Comparisons to Penal System Under Stalin

Comparison to Penal Systems Internationally

16.14.0 Uncategorized Categories

16.14.1 Urbanism

Roundabout Safety:

16.14.2 Horsewatering Examples

16.14.3 Overconsumption

Comparison Costs

Beauty Spending

Fireworks

Food

16.14.4 Science Funding: Basic Science, Research & Development Spending, And Economic Benefits

Trend Over Time

Examples of Basic Research Yielding Massive Results

R&d Is Overwhelmingly Funded by Big Corporations and Federal and State Governments

Basic Research Is Overwhelmingly Funded by Federal and State Governments

Public-Funded R&d Is Better

Effects of Politics

Op-Eds in Favor of Basic Research Funding

16.14.5 Good Fiction / Good Stories / Good Anecdotes

God as Character:

Science Fiction

Real Stories

Memes

Dragon Bostrom

16.14.6 Handedness

Trend Over Time

Causes of Trend Over Time: Genetics

Trend Over Time Among Ethnicities

Causes of Differences Across Regions: Genetics

Causes of Handedness: Genetic

16.14.7 Scientific Communication

16.14.8 Waco Siege And Branch Davidians

Branch Davidians Set the Fires

16.14.9 Alcohol Beer Wine Liquor Drinking Endgame

Literature Review

Drinking Culture: Do Lower Legal Drinking Ages Create Better Drinking Cultures? No

Drinking Culture: Does Europe Have a Better Drinking Culture? No

Effects of Increased Minimum Drinking Age: Positive

Effects of Alcohol Beverage Monopoly: Positive

Effects of Alcohol Stores: Location-Based Studies

Effects of a Temporary Alcohol Ban: Major Effect

Effects of Taxes and Quotas: Soviet Experience: Anti-Alcohol Program Saved Many Lives

Alcohol and Domestic Violence Around Sports

Alcohol Tax: Effect on Domestic Violence

Todo

A 2006 study by Gruenewald and colleagues, for example, examined California hospital admission for assaults and found that assaults were more common in areas with many alcohol outlets that required offpremises consumption such as liquor stores than in areas with many outlets where alcohol is consumed on the premises, such as bars. In fact, Gruenewald et al. (2006) found that bar density increased the assault rate only in low-income poor communities and rural communities, but not in stable, wealthy communities.

A third approach for addressing concerns about omitted variables bias is to examine how the opening and closing of alcohol outlets affects crime rates. Teh (2008) employs this type of strategy in an event-study framework using data on liquor outlets in Los Angeles. Her empirical specifications include area fixed effects, which ease concerns about the time-invariant characteristics of neighborhoods that might affect both crime rates and the probability that a liquor store is located in the neighborhood. In her main specifications the effects of liquor availability are identified from liquor store openings and closings. She finds that both property and violent crimes increase immediately after an alcohol outlet opens, and these effects are larger in the immediate vicinity of the outlet and in low-income neighborhoods.

16.14.10 Tobacco Cigarettes Vaping Endgame

Medical Consensus: Eradication

Does Vaping Reducing Smoking

16.14.11 George Floyd's Death

Hennepin County Autopsy Report by Andrew Baker

Autopsist Testimony: Floyd Died From Neck Depression, Not Fentanyl

Expert Testimony: Floyd Died From Neck Depression, Not Fentanyl

16.14.12 Puerto Rican Statehood

2020 Polling

2020 Referenda Results

16.14.13 Fake Quotes: Why Should We Bother To Reply To Kautsky?

Summary

Actual Lenin Quotes

George Will: Popularizer

Richard Mitchell: Originator

16.14.14 Fake Quotes: Gramsci Capturing The Culture

Fake Quote

Comparison With Fascist Liberal Conservative Ideology MorbiusDevo

Source Texts

Does Gramsci Repeat the Same Sentiment in "The Formation of the Intellectuals"? No.

Citing Sources

16.14.15 Bariatric Surgery

16.14.16 How Leaders Reacted To Nuclear Apocalypse

16.14.17 The First Measured Century

16.14.18 Congo After Colonization

Sixteen College Graduates in Congo

17.0.0 Nazism: Death Toll Estimates And Hard Evidence For Crimes Against Humanity

17.1.0 Nazi Death Toll Estimates

17.1.1 Overall Estimates

Full Time Period

The Nazis *intentionally* killed 11.5-20.5 million noncombatants (Holocaust [5-6m Jews], Porajmos [0.1-0.5m Romani], "racial eugenics" [0.2-0.3m "sick" under Aktion T4, 5000-15000 "homosexuals"], political repressions [0.1-0.2m leftists, 7000 Spanish Republicans], religious persecution [0.1-0.2m Freemasons, 1000-5000 Jehovah's Witnesses], Generalplan Ost [1.8-3m non-Jewish Poles, 2.8-3.5m Soviet POWs, 1-6m Soviet civilians], occupation of Southeastern Europe [0.3m-0.6m Serbs, 20000-25000 Slovenes], etc.) [5+0.1+0.2+0.005+0.1+0.007+0.1+0.001+1.8+2.8+1+0.3+0.02 = 11.43, 6+0.5+0.3+0.015+0.2+0.007+0.2+0.005+3.0+3.5+6+0.6+0.025 = 20.35]. The Nazis were in power for 12 years (1933-1945) in a nation of 80 million people. This represents about 12 x 80 = 960 million person-years. **The Nazis intentionally killed between 11.5/12 = 0.958 and 20.5/12 = 1.708 million noncombatants per year** and **between 11.5/80/12 = 0.0120 and 20.5/80/12 = 0.0214 noncombatants per person-year.**

Scope of Nazi Deaths: Overall

Scope of Nazi Deaths: Jewish People

17.1.2 Comparisons To Stalin's Death Toll

Snyder

Wheatcroft

17.1.3 Anti-handicapped Killings / Euthanasia / Racial Hygeine

Todo

Total Death Toll

Child Killings

Adult Killings in Action T4 Aktion T4: Locations

locations: Bernburg, Brandenburg, Grafeneck, Hadamar, Hartheim, Miedzyrzecz [Meseritz-Obrawalde], Sonnenstein

Adult Killings in Action T4 Aktion T4: Death Toll

For Concentration Camps: Action 14f13 Aktion 14f13

Program for "Asocials" and "Wild Euthanasia": After Aktion T4 Was Officially Ended

Lifton, Robert Jay. The Nazi Doctors Medical Killing and the Psychology of Genocide, Papermac, London, 1990.

17.1.4 Anti-polish Killings

17.1.5 Anti-jewish Killings And Death Camps

Comparisons of Estimates / Summaries of Estimates for Death Camps

Auschwitz: Deathcount

Belzec: Death Camp Death Toll

Chelmno [Kulmhof]: Death Camp Death Toll

Sobibor: Death Camp Death Toll

Treblinka: Death Camp Death Toll

Majdanek [Lublin]: Death Camp Death Toll

Bergen-Belsen: Concentration Camp Death Toll

Stutthoff: Concentration Camp Death Toll

17.2.0 Quick Debunks Of Bad Holocaust Denial Arguments

17.2.1 Overview

Anti-Denial Resources: Websites and Blogs

Anti-Denial Books: Zimmerman

Anti-Denial Books: Pressac

Opinion Polling: Overt Holocaust Denial Is Rare

17.2.2 Debunk: "too Many Bodies"

17.2.3 Debunk: Holocaust Was A Psyop Because Of Newspapers

Claim: Word Appearance of "6 Million"

Reality: This Is Pareidolia: Random Examples

Reality: This Is Pareidolia: Millions of Germans

Other Old Newspaper Insanity

17.2.4 Debunk: Where Are The Bodies?

Photos of Mass Murder

Why Bodies Are Rarer Than One Might Think

17.2.5 Debunk: Auschwitz Deaths Were All Typhus!

17.2.6 Debunk: Leuchter Report

Lab Manager Testimony

17.2.7 Debunk: Red Cross Death Toll Statistics

Summary

Confirmation of Above From Red Cross

Same Language Appearing in Red Cross Publications

17.2.8 Debunk: Red Cross Visit To Auschwitz

Summary

What Actually Happened: An "Inspection" of a Forced-Labor Camp Where No Prisoners Could Be Seen

What Actually Happened: Theresienstadt

17.2.9 Debunk: World Almanac Jewish Population Figures Before-after

Claim

Reality: All Estimates Were Made on Projections Until 1949

17.2.10 Debunk: Death Camps Were Just Concentration Camps

Claim

Response

Just Noting Author Bias a Little Bit

17.2.11 Debunk: Diesel Engines Were Used, Not Gasoline

Sobibor Testimony

Belzec Testimony

Treblinka Testimony

17.2.12 Debunk: No Flaming Chimneys

17.3.0 Evidence For Nazi Crimes Against Humanity: Holocaust, Porajmos

17.3.1 Background

Terms and Abbreviations

CC [KL] = concentration camp (CC) [Konzentrationslager (KL)]

LC [AL] = labor camp (LC) [Arbeitslager (AL)]

Auschwitz: Concentration Camp, Death Camp, Labor Camp

Auschwitz: Calendar

Auschwitz: Maps

17.3.2 Nazi-authored Documents

Evidence: Hofle Telegram

Evidence: Koherr Report

Evidence Limitations: Railway Record Incompleteness

Holocaust in the East:

17.3.3 Auschwitz: Aerial Photographs

Abbreviations and Galleries Used

60PR = 60th Photo Reconnaissance Squadron of the South African Air Force, used DH.98 Mosquitos

464BG = 464th Bombardment Group of the , used B-24 Liberators

5PG = 5th Photographic Reconnaissance Group of the 15th Air Force, used F-5 Lightnings

4 April 1944:

SAAF

31 May 1944: One Camera, One Pass: Open-Air Cremation

SAAF -- CIA and YV claim smoke from crematorium 5

26 June 1944:

60PR/522

8 July 1944: Open-Air Cremation

zimmerman says open-air

USAF

9 August 1944

???

12 August 1944: Open-Air Cremation

???

20 August 1944

???

23 August 1944: Two Passes, Two Directions: Open-Air Cremation

25 August 1944: Saaf: One Pass, Two Cameras: No Open-Air Cremation

8 September 1944

SAAF

13 September 1944

464BG/4M97

29 November 1944

5PG

21 December 1944:

14 or 15 January 1945

5PG

17.3.4 Auschwitz: Sonderkommando Photographs

Summary

Specific Photos

17.3.5 Auschwitz: Auschwitz Album [jacob Album]

Summary

Specific Photos

17.3.6 Auschwitz: Auschwitz Album [bauleitung Album]

Summary

All Photos

Specific Photos: Soot on Chimneys, Evidence for Cremation: Crematory 4

Specific Photos: Soot on Chimneys, Evidence for Cremation: Crematory 2

Specific Photos: Soot on Chimneys, Evidence for Cremation: Crematory 3 [No Soot Picture]

Specific Photos: Soot on Chimneys, Evidence for Cremation: Crematory 5 [No Soot Picture]

Specific Photos: Many Ovens, Evidence for Cremation

17.3.7 Auschwitz: Auschwitz Album [hoecker Album]

17.3.8 Auschwitz: Auschwitz Album [truppenlazarett Album]

17.3.9 Bergen-belsen: Photographs

17.3.10 Stutthoff: Photographs

17.3.11 Babi Yar: Aerial Photographs

Debunk: No Obvious Bodies

Specific Photos

17.3.12 Photos Todo UNCATEGORIZED TODO XXX

17.3.13 Other Photographs: UNCATEGORIZED TODO XXX

Einsatzgruppen Photographs: UNCATEGORIZED TODO XXX

17.3.14 Liepaja: Movie Of Massacre Of Jewish People

17.3.15 Summary

Background With Maps

Movie Footage: Liepaja Massacre [Wiener Footage]

Photographs: Liepaja Massacre [Zivcon Album]

Photographs: Liepaja Massacre: Unknown Author

17.3.16 Vinnitsa: Photographs [vinnytsia, Vinnitsia, Vinnitsa]

Summary

Details

Specific Phtographs: The Last Jew in Vinnytsia

Specific Phtographs

17.3.17 Einsatzgruppen Photographs: Miropol [skrovina Album]

17.3.18 Einsatzgruppen Photographs: Bi Goraj

17.3.19 Einsatzgruppen Photographs: Lviv [lw W] Pogrom

17.3.20 Einsatzgruppen Photographs: Kaunas [kovno] Pogrom

17.3.21 Einsatzgruppen Photographs: Mizoch [mizocz] Shootings [hille Album]

17.3.22 Einsatzgruppen Photographs: Ponary Massacres: Schroff Photos [schroff Album]

Einsatzgruppen Photographs: Ponary Massacres: Not Schroff

17.3.23 Photographs Todo

Einsatzgruppen Killings: Bronna Gora

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Einsatzgruppen Killings: Polonka

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Einsatzgruppen Killings: Byrdgoszcz

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Einsatzgruppen Killings: Stanislawow

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17.3.24 Eastern Mass Killings: Bloody Wednesday Olkusz

17.3.25 Photo Albums Compiled By Nazis

Warsaw Ghetto Photographs: Stroop Report [Stroop Album]

18.0.0 Reading Notes

Note: This section summarizes several books, some of which I strongly disagree with, and others which have good and bad sections. Unlike other sections, where I mostly try to concentrate evidence I agree with (or refute studies I disagree with), this section is almost entirely a series of raw summaries.

18.1.0 Politics Is For Power Reading Notes

Political Social Media Use as a Shallow Substitute for Political Activism

Decline in Political Activism Yielding Community Organizing

Community Service Builds Political Power

Political Hobbyism Rising: Rise in Political Engagement, Decline in Political Participation

Post-Materialism as Cause of Political Hobbyism

Success Story: Precinct 206 College Democrats

Success Story: Voice of Westmoreland, Vow

Failure of the Arab Spring

Against Primaries

Hobbyists Choose Hobbies Like Their Work

Comparing Shallow Political Activity and Shallow Religious Affiliation

Money in Politics: Interviewing Megadonors

Money in Politics: Favors Crudely Negative Attacks

18.2.0 Rutherford How To Argue With A Racist Reading Notes

18.2.1 Rhetoric Against Racialism

The Racialism Question Properly Stated

Science and Reality Against Race and Racism

Observed Differences vs Causal Differences

Racialists Are Obsessed, Scientists Have Abandoned Race, Which Advantages the Racialist

Against "Race Doesn't Exist" or "Race Is a Social Construct"

History: Racism Outside Christendom

18.2.2 Genetics

18.2.3 Tangled Bank

Does Clustering or Identification Mean Races Exist? No

Racial Purity Is Meaningless

Against Adaptationism

Brief Summary of How Gwas Works and Why It Can't Alone Demonstrate Causality

18.2.4 Sports Against Racialism

18.2.5 Black People Overrepresentation Logical Flaws

18.2.6 Intelligence

18.2.7 History Of Jewish People

18.3.0 Equal Shares Reading Notes

18.3.1 Importance Of Theorizing A Socialist Alternative

Alternative Building

Provisional Utopia

18.3.2 Weakness Of Evidence Of Failure Of Soviet Central Planning Against Socialism As A Whole

18.3.3 The Empirical Evidence Is Unclear

The Theoretical Evidence Is Unclear

18.3.4 Modelling Coupon Socialism

Toy Model Graphical Summary

18.4.0 Saini Superior Reading Notes

Civilization as European

Racialism Justifies Racism

Indigenous Australian Aboriginal Agriculture

Racism Among Early Enlightenment Thinkers

Views on Neanderthals Through History: Idiots, Until Europeans Realized They Were European

On Darwin and Racialism

Link Between Oppression, Inferiority, and Ease of Genetic Explanations

Galton and Pearson

Racism in China and Japan

Two Concepts of Modern Racism

Explaining Lewotin 1972

On Clines

Mankind Quarterly

Deep Involvement of the Pioneer Fund

Human Biodiversity

creator

On Unnecessity of Divisoin

On Racism in the Post-Genomic Era

Use This Population as an Example of Strong Genetic Selection

Turkheimer

Environmental Point

Plomin Admission?

Interpreting the Flynn Effect

Flynn 2012

Mixed Race Empirics

Likely a Reference to Mtras?

Examine Empirics in Uk

Culture

Caste and Intelligence

Lahn

Racialism Causes Racism

Asian Iq and Work -- Culture Again

Race and Medicine: Diabetes and Environment

Race and Medicine: Hypertension

Analogy to Sickle-Cell Anemia

Using Race in Hopes of Biologically Substantiating It

Bidil Backstory

Nih Study Guidelines and Racial Category Misuse

18.5.0 People's Republic Of Walmart

18.5.1 Planning Is Extensive Under Capitalism: Scope

The Bullwhip Effect Motivates Significant Vertical Integration in Capitalist Firms

Planning Constitutes the Majority of Activity in Both Capitalist and Socialist Economies

18.5.2 Planning Is Extensive Under Capitalism: Causes

The Coasian Solution: Islands of Conscious Power Are Motivated by Transaction Costs

18.5.3 Langean Market Socialism

Markets as Pre-Computer Equilibria Calculators

Oscar Lange's Neoclassical Vision of Market Socialism for Final Products and Planning for Primary and Intermediate Products

18.5.4 Failures Of Neoclassical Economics

Summary of Major Failures of Neoclassical Era of Economics

On the Misuse of the "Invisible Hand" and Collusion

On Misuse of "Tragedy of the Commons" and Elinor Ostrom

18.5.5 Hayekian Critique Of Neoclassical Economics

18.5.6 On Hayek

Irony of Hayekian Decentralization

On Prices and Innovation

18.5.7 Post-70s Behavioral Economics Revolution Move From Neoclassical Economics

Imperfections and Market Failures: Economists Don't Choose Institutional Design and Democracy, but Better Competitive Market Design

Mechanism Design as a Form of Planning

18.5.8 Modern Forms Of Information Sharing And Planning

On Amazon Reviews and Planning

On Bank Lending and Planning

On Index Fund Control and Planning

18.5.9 Transitional Demands And Moving Toward Socialism

On Taxation and Reform as Planning

On Publicly Operated Credit Indices and Payment Systems

The Importance of Having an Alternative Before Enacting Socialism

18.5.10 On The Foundation And Privatization Of The Nhs

Foundation

Privatization

18.6.0 After Capitalism Reading Notes TODO

18.7.0 Lenin State And Revolution Reading Notes TODO

18.8.0 Listening Notes

18.8.1 Listening Notes: Eric Blanc On Revolutionary Social Democracy

Summary of Blanc's Position

Importance of Democracy

First Major Flaw of Leninism: The Russian Revolution Cannot Be Overgeneralized

Second Major Flaw of Leninism: Organizational Strategy

19.0.0 GA Cohen Reading Notes

19.0.1 Works Covered

Articles Included but Not Yet Reviewed Independently

3: 'Self-Ownership, World-Ownership, and Equality', in Frank Lucash (ed.), Justice and Equality Here and Now, 1986. Copyright 1986 by Cornell University Press.

4: 'Self-Ownership, World-Ownership, and Equality: Part II', in Social Philosophy and Policy, 3, Issue 2 (Spring 1986). Copyright 1986 by Social Philosophy and Policy.

5: 'Self-Ownership, Communism, and Equality', in Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, supp. vol. 64, 1990. Copyright 1990 by the Aristotelian Society.

6: 'Marxism and Contemporary Political Philosophy, or: Why Nozick Exercises Some Marxists More than He Does any Egalitarian Liberals', in Canadian Journal of Philosophy, supp. vol. 16, 1990. Copyright 1990 by Canadian Journal of Philosophy.

7: 'Marx and Locke on Land and Labour', in Proceedings of the British Academy, 71,1985 Lectures and Memoirs. Copyright 1986 by The British Academy.

11: 'The Future of a Disillusion', in Jim Hopkins and Anthony Savile (eds.), Psychoanalysis, Mind and Art: Perspectives on Richard Wollheim, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1992. Copyright 1992 by Basil Blackwell Ltd

Works Covered in Future

19.0.2 Shortquotes

On the Nature of Theory

Against Dogmatism

Arguing for Egalitarianism

Utilitarian Approach to Freedom Maximization

Shifting From Anti-Ethical to Ethical Socialism

Dirty Histories

Against Nozick

Abandoning Abundance

19.0.3 Terms Used To Represent "positive Liberty"

real freedom

control

autonomy

19.1.0 On Anti-ethical Marxism, Historical Materialism, Justice, And Dialectical Materialism

19.1.1 Contrasting Ethical Socialism And Anti-ethical Marxism

On the Nature of Moral Philosophy and Historical Materialism

On How Inevitability Shaped Anti-Ethical Socialism

19.1.2 Anticontrasting Ethical Socialism And Anti-ethical Marxism

Mere Bravado

19.1.3 On Benefits Of Moral Justification

On Blind Assumption of Moral Superiority

Observed Empathy Beyond Self-Interest

Critique of Cohen:

On Overreliance on Empirical Data That We Know to Be False

19.1.4 On Inevitability Of Socialism (cohen: "obstetric")

Summarizing the Inevitability Claims

Summarizing the Failure of the Inevitability Claims

The Failure of the Growth of the Proletariat Class

The Failure of the Growth of the Means of Production

19.2.0 Moral Arguments For Egalitarianism

19.2.1 On Weakness Of Classical Marxist Self-ownership Arguments

19.2.2 Self-ownership As Shared Characteristic Of Marxism And Libertarianism

Self-Ownership Is the Basis of the Marxist Argument Against Exploitation

19.2.3 Against Self-ownership

Self-Ownership Conflicts With Positive Freedom and Equality

Rejection of Self-Ownership Does Not Endorse Slavery

19.2.4 Against Nozickian Self-ownership

Unjust Conclusions: Slavery With a Just Genesis

Unjust Methods: Transactional Justice Is Insufficient to Guarantee Justice

Unjust Methods & Unjust Outcomes: Transactional Justice and Power

Absurd Assumptions: Societal Norms and Societal Rules

As a Bad Intuition Pump: In an Egalitarian Society

Unjust Outcomes: Nozick Minimizes Negative Unfreedom Rather Than Maximizing Positive Freedom

19.2.5 Contrasting Marxism And Left-libertarianism

19.2.6 Marxists Must Reject Self-ownership And Unequal Initial Distribution As Anti-capitalist Arguments

Marxists Wish to Design a Society Which Forces the Better-Off to Benefit the Worse-Off

19.3.0 What Socialism Should Look Like

19.3.1 On Regulating Behavior Under Socialism

On Gifts and Small Market Transactions Under Egalitarianism

On Capitalist-Ophiles Under Socialism

19.4.0 Ecology

19.4.1 On The Interaction Of Degrowth And Equality

Negative Growth Demands Equality

19.5.0 Kautsky

19.6.0 Necessity Of Revolutionary Rupture To Achieve Socialism

19.6.1 Social Revolution Through Reform In Feudal Europe

19.6.2 Efficacy Of Reform

19.6.3 Differences In Revolution Then And Now