##### # # # Stinky Right-Winger Factsheet by Socialism Done Left # # #####o ##### # read me #####o * The SRF is a sheet of facts that you can throw at stinky right-wingers and other stinky ideologies * On the left border: Click the (+) button to open the sidebar, which has options and a Table of Contents (TOC) * In sections below: Click the gray title bar to expand a given study * Images only load after opening a collapsible, so "Open all" may take a while! * {{count}} * If you appreciate this factsheet, please support me on Patreon or follow me elsewhere https://allmylinks.com/socdoneleft * If you dislike or don't understand any part of this factsheet, please direct message me on Twitter or Discord! I greatly appreciate constructive criticism! :) #####c ##### # other worthwhile factsheets #####o # useful URLs for this factsheet * short URL: * HTML format (better for casual browsing): * text format (better for searching): # lists of factsheets * Fact Sheet List by SoopaKhell: # multi-category factsheets like this one * Ultimate Research Document by Vaush: * Source Library by NB419: # socialist and socdem economics factsheets * Left-Libertarian Mega Document: * Lefty Fact Sheet by Naturea: * #1 Economic Fact Sheet™ by sock dem: # social issue factsheets * Research Outline by Riley Grace Roshong: * TERF Rebuttals SuperDoc by Jangles Sciencelad: * Systemic Racism Factsheet by Rose Wrist and Left Ty: * Research Document To End All Research Documents by Liberal Sanity Project: * The nominal.naomi Research and Rhetoric Masterdoc: * Trans Research Masterdoc by SkyMochi64 and Nominal Naomi: #####c ##### # random crap I need ##### # discord pdf argument remover ([^ \n]*)discord([^ \n]*)\.((?:pdf)|(?:png))\?[^ \n]+ $1discord$2.$3 ##### ##### # book recommendations #####o # intros to socialism Sunkara 2019: The Socialist Manifesto: offers an excellent introduction to modern socialist critiques of capitalism and proposals for the future: The Socialist Manifesto Frase 2017: Four Futures: offers a vision of four futures for humanity, in a quadrant of scarcity-abundance and socialism-capitalism: Four Futures # economics: about capitalism Chang 2010: 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism: Notes failures of neoliberalism and suggests utility of partial state planning from a non-socialist leftist perspective: Piketty 2014: Capital in the 21st Century: Reviews wealth accumulation, inequality, and growth (mostly) from 1800's to 2000's from a non-Marxist socialist perspective: Nitzan and Bichler 2009: Capital as Power: Argues that the chief source of inequality and oppression is hierarchy; argues against the neoclassical util and the Marxian LTV: # economics: in favor of social democracy and developmental state Mazzacuto 2013: The Entrepreneurial State: Reviews the role of the state in spurring and spreading innovation from a non-socialist left perspective: Chang and Grabel 2013: Reclaiming Development: demonstrates how the development successes of East Asia rebuked neoliberalism and emberaced the developmental state model: # economics: in favor of marksoc (market socialism) Roosevelt and Belkin eds 1994: Why Market Socialism?: An anthology of various market socialisms, their strengths and weaknesses, and preferability to capitalist or planned socialist models: Why Market Socialism? Schweickart 2011: After Capitalism: argues for Economic Democracy, a socialist market system, as superior to capitalism: After Capitalism Roemer Wright 1996: Equal Shares: argues for a specific vision of market socialism, and features several responses and elaborations: Equal Shares: Making Market Socialism Work Roemer 1994: A Future for Socialism: argues that positive freedom and equality of opportunity are the hallmarks of socialism, argues that market socialism is both socialist and efficient, from an Analytic Marxist perspective: A Future for Socialism Schweickart 2016: Economic Democracy: # economics: in favor of plansoc (planned socialism) Phillips and Rozworski 2019: The People's Republic of Walmart: light reading by non-economists who suggest that the internal central planning of most companies suggests socialist central planning is plausible: Cockshott and Zachariah 2012: Arguments for Socialism: argues for socialist central planning based on cybernetic information-gathering, integrated labor values, and labor-vouchers, from a modern Marxist perspective: Cockshott and Cottrell 1993: Toward a New Socialism: argues for socialist central planning based on cybernetic information-gathering, integrated labor values, and labor-vouchers, from a modern Marxist perspective: # economics: in favor of worker cooperatives Dow 2018: The Labor-Managed Firm: Theoretical Foundations: todo reread xxx: Wolff 2012: Democracy At Work: todo reread xxx: # economics: post-keynesian economics and analytical marxian theory Lavoie 2009: Introduction to Post-Keynesian Economics: provides an overview of and introduction to post-Keynesian economic theory: Robinson 1974: Economic Philosophy: reviews contemporary post-Keynesian approach to economics: Roemer 1981: Analytical Foundations of Marxian Economic Theory: Analytic Marxist provides neoclassical-type micro-foundations to support Marxian economics: Roemer 1988: Free to Lose: Analytic Marxist shows that labor theory of value isn't necessary to prove that exploitation exists, shows that unequal capital ownership is sufficient to automatically create class: # economics: critical reviews of socialist economies Lane Lane 1977: The Socialist Industrial State: critiques state socialism from a socialist / social democratic perspective: The Socialist Industrial State Ellman 2014: Socialist Planning: reviews the commonalities and differences, successes and failures of socialist planning schemes, from a very critical new Keynesian synthesis perspective: # institutional design: importance of democracy and markets, from socdem-proglib perspectives Acemoglu and Robinson 2019: The Narrow Corridor: SocDem / ProgLib perspective: Reviews why democracy has thrived within the "narrow corridor" of dual growth of both civil society power and state power: Acemoglu and Robinson 2012: Why Nations Fail: SocDem / ProgLib perspective: Argues that growth is caused by good institutions, which are strong democracy, markets, and private property: Levitsky and Ziblatt 2018: How Democracies Die: ProgLib perspective: Reviews the institutional causes of democratic breakdown. Friedman 2019: The History of American Law: lib perspective: Reviews the origins and development of laws in the postcolonial and industrializing USA: # effective political activism Blanc 2021: Revolutionary Social Democracy: argues that Tsar-era autocracy forced left parties toward revolutionary positions while Tsar-era Finnish autonomy pushed left parties toward democratic/parliamentarian positions: Hersh 2020: Politics Is For Power: argues that "political hobbyism" and "postmaterialism" are ineffective while local citizen organizing is effective at achieving political power & change, from a liberal perspective: Chenowith and Stephan 2011: Why Civil Resistance Works: argues that nonviolent movements are more successful than violent ones at achieving similar goals, from a ProgLib perspective: # other lefty theory Fisher 2009: Capitalist Realism: Is There No Alternative? Fisher Ambrose 2018: K-Punk: Fisher's unfinished, unpublished works; published posthumously: # against racialism Rutherford 2020: How to Argue With A Racist: geneticist reviews the arguments for scientific anti-racism: Saini 2019: Superior: The Return of Race Science: science journalist reviews the arguments for scientific anti-racism: Roberts 2020: Fatal Invention: How Science, Politics, and Big Business Re-Create Race in the Twenty-First Century: lawyer reviews the arguments for scientific anti-racism: Foner 2017: Reconstruction: America's Unfinished Revolution, 1863-1877: reivews the current historical view on Reconstruction, which is of a racist backlash that thwarted the potentially radical land reform and political reform against the Southern aristocracy: todotodotodo: # historical materialism Cohen 2000: Karl Marx's Theory of History: defends the defensible portions of Karl Marx's historical materialism through analytical Marxism: # history of socialism: economics of the soviet union Allen 2009: Farm to Factory: Reviews economic growth in the Soviet Union; suggests central planning excelled at extensive growth in the 20's-60's; suggests central planning failed at intensive growth in the 70's-80's; and that growth was dramatically slowed by political failure: Peters 2016: How Not to Network a Nation: reviews the failure of the USSR to adopt internetted communication and computerized planning: """The central proposition that this book develops and then complicates is that although the American ARPANET initially took shape thanks to well-managed state subsidies and collaborative research environments, the comparable Soviet network projects stumbled due to widespread unregulated competition among self-interested institutions, bureaucrats, and other key actors. The first global civilian computer networks developed among cooperative capitalists, not among competitive socialists. The capitalists behaved like socialists while the socialists behaved like capitalists.""" Spufford 2012: Red Plenty: fictionally reviews the failure of the USSR to adopt Kantorovich-inspired rational economic planning: #####c ##### # youtuber / podcaster recommendations #####o # socialists: current affairs Innuendo Studios: socialist, mostly current affairs: # socialists: historical discussions Three Arrows: socialist, mostly historical discussions: donoteat01: socialist, mostly historical discussions: # socialists: theoretical discussions Srsly Wrong: socialist, wide theoretical analysis: Halim Alrah: socialist, mostly theoretical analysis: Paul Cockshott: socialist, mostly theoretical analysis: # socialists: cultural discussions hbomberguy: socialist, mostly cultural discussions: José: socialist, mostly cultural discussions: The Moa: socialist, mostly cultural discussions: Contrapoints: socialist, mostly cultural discussions: PhilosophyTube: socialist, mostly cultural discussions: Folding Ideas: socialist, mostly cultural discussions: # social democrats (socdems) LastWeekTonight: socdem, mostly current affairs: Robert Reich: socdem, mostly current affairs: Knowing Better: socdem, mostly historical analysis: Internet Comment Etiquette: socdem, mostly current affairs: # progressive liberals (proglibs) C0nc0rdance: ProgLib, mostly current affairs: Riley Grace Roshong: ProgLib, mostly social-left issues: #####c ##### # resources to empower your research #####o # access scientific articles * Google Scholar: (legal; click "all versions" and try each) * Google: (legal; see if a PDF exists on Researchgate, Academia.edu, etc.) * Sci-Hub: (probably illegal) * Google Scholar Button: (look up sources faster) # access books * Google Books: (legal; reload or change browser if you hit pagelimit; sometimes multiple copies exist with different page restrictions) * Internet Archive: (legal; many books available for temporary check out) * ZLibrary: (probably illegal) * Library Genesis: (probably illegal) # access old webpages / current newspapers * Internet Archive Wayback Machine: (more complete, slower; can sometimes use to get ad-free, paywall-free newspaper articles) * archive.today: (less complete, faster; can often use to get ad-free, paywall-free newspaper articles) * Outline: (can often use to get an ad-free, paywall-free version of newspaper articles) # access old newspapers * Library of Congress: (1789-1963, high-quality) * Elephind: (medium-quality) * Google News Archive: https://news.google.com/newspapers # miscellaneous * Video Speed Controller: (has hotkeys, goes up to 16x) * Reddit Check: (lists Reddit posts with current URL, often has quick debunks) * Copy All URLs: (don't lose tabs; copy and paste multiple URLs) * Multiple Tab Search: (search many terms at once, around 20 you'll hit captcha) * Simple Mass Downloader: (downloads many tabs at once) * VietOCR: (quickly copy-paste convert image to text with optical character recognition in many languages, great for Google Books) #####c #####c ##### # # # democracy, voting, civil rights [axis one] # # #####o ##### # # efficacy of democracy # #####o ##### # scope of democracy #####o # over time V-DEM metric: democracy (a complex and large number of metrics, broadly encompassing access to power, competition for power, and democratic-liberal freedoms) has greatly increased over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982131305028386857/unknown.png POLITY-4: metric: democracy (defined as open political competition for the executive & legislative & judicial power in a country) has greatly increased over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/619647632515530774/unknown.png # over space V-DEM metric: democracy (see above) is concentrated among high- and middle-income countries, especially in the Americas, Europe, Southern Africa, East Asia, and Oceania: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982131634738442310/unknown.png economist democracy index (flawed metric) by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/573652776664432690/unknown.png #####c ##### # effects of democracy #####o # civil rights: democracy reduces civilian killings and democide Rummel 1995: using a bad metric of democracy, strong democracies and strong civil rights correlate with many times fewer killings by the government: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/457375618007302144/unknown.png # economics: democracy increases economic growth Acemoglu 2018: democracy increases economic growth: countries that transition to democracy see substantially higher growth afterward: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/488749449565306892/unknown.png """Our index of democracy combines information from several datasets, including Freedom House and Polity IV, and only codes a country as democratic when several sources agree. The full construction of our measure is explained in detail in the Appendix, and we just provide an overview here. We code our dichotomous measure of democracy in country c at time t, Dct, as follows. First, we code a country as democratic during a given year if: Freedom House codes it as “Free”, or “Partially Free” and it receives a positive Polity IV score.""" # stability: both autocracy and democracy are stable government forms POLITY-5: consistent democracies and consistent autocracies are about equally stable; mixed systems are much less stable: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/703242488252727338/P4InstabOnset2006x.png #####c ##### # opinion polls about democracy #####o # leftists support democracy leftists are more supportive of democracy than rightists or centrists: NYT: Study: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/455979334298107916/unknown.png ^ possible response: http://web.archive.org/web/20180613175008/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/06/12/not-centrists-but-radicals-and-extremists-are-more-hostile-to-democracy/?utm_term=.a84645f2754f # direct democracy 29% of Americans think direct democracy is "very good", 38% "somewhat good", 19% "somewhat bad", and 12% "very bad" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470985003698749442/PG_2017.png # support for democracy over time Foa and Mounk 2016 claim that support for democracy has dramatically declined: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640292556772605952/unknown.png this only occurs when looking at one response (10 out of 10): in reality, the mean score for "How important is living in a democracy?" is virtually unchanged from 2006 to 2017: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640928606217961472/Figure-1.png #####c #####c ##### # # pro-democracy policies # #####o ##### # direct democracy: theory #####o # agenda setting true democracy requires that the people be able to "set" the political agenda themselves: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640929358361657354/2011-11-20-demrep.png # electronic democracy vTaiwan usefully converts citizen suggestions about a proposed law into "blocs" of agreeing and differing opinion, allowing legislators to better tailor laws: # economic issues basic math allows for direct votes on expenditure and taxation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640928736534855688/unknown.png # trustworthiness of politicians on average, studies find that US presidents keep about 67% of their promises: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/632634704792649741/unknown.png [unformatted reread] #####c ##### # multiparty democracy good #####o # one-party rule and regulatory capture Japanese one-party rule incorporated the nuclear industry, which resulted in less powerful and less transparent regulation: """In Japan, there is considerable stress on voluntary compliance with nuclear regulations, which are less strict in the critical plant operating stage.""""""And it is the reasons for this “behind the scenes” collaboration that must be analyzed here, based upon the gap between theory and practice in the case of Japanese nuclear regulation. First of all, while Japan’s Diet [Parliament] was, in theory, based upon an “open” multi-party parliamentary system, in practice, it acquired a centralized “Byzantine-like” nature based upon a party-political “machine”, i.e. the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) that was essentially unresponsive to changing or competing interests and changes in the composition of interest groups. The desire of LDP “beneficiaries” — such as the Japanese nuclear-industrial complex — were facilitated by governmental organizations with which they were closely linked. What occurred in Japan, therefore, was that the centralized government agencies regulating nuclear power, MITI and NSC (Nuclear Safety Commission), simply collaborated on safety issues to the benefit of the Japanese nuclear-industrial complex. Secondly, in Japan, not only were the parliamentary and regulatory structures centralized, but the nature of the domestic power interests — industries and utilities — was also monolithic and uncompetitive.""" #####c ##### # populism bad (weak evidence) #####o # populism reduces democracy: bad definition of populism populist rule correlates with a 15.3% decline in a country's Polity IV democracy score; each year of populist rule correlates with a 30.3% decline: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/672545806540210216/unknown.png # left populism also reduces democracy: bad definition of populism rate of democratic backsliding by ideology was basically indifferent: of 13 right-wing populists, 5 (38.5%) backslid; of 15 left-wing, 5 (33.3%) backslid; of 17 unclassified (often centrist), 5 (29.4%) backslid: """Between 1990 and 2014, 13 right-wing populist governments were elected; of these, five have significantly curtailed civil liberties and political rights, as measured by Freedom House. Over the same period, 15 left-wing populist governments were elected; of these, the same number reduced such freedoms. (Over the same period, there were also 17 populist governments that cannot easily be classified as either right- or left-wing; again, five of these governments diminished civil liberties and political rights.) Although this indicates a slightly higher rate of backsliding among right-wing populists than left-wing ones (38 per cent vs. 33 per cent), these data clearly contradict the belief that left-wing populism does not pose a threat to democracy.""" # populists rule for longer and are more likely to be ejected than voted out (this suggests they centralize power): bad definition of populism populists tend to rule for more years than non-populists: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/672547326937792512/unknown.png #####c ##### # compulsory voting good #####o # increased turnout: direct effects 13% of countries today have compulsory voting at any level (eg, Australia nationwide, Switzerland with one canton): on average, their turnout is 7.3% higher than those without compulsory voting: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/739232342316548096/Compulsory20voting202017-07-18.png after adopting compulsory voting, Australian voter turnout increased by 24%; Labor vote share increased by 9%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/739230721679556658/unknown.png # increased turnout: reductions after abolition Engelen 2007: when compulsory voting has been abolished, turnout has fallen by 7-22%: """In the Netherlands (1971) turnout dropped from 92.1% in 1967 to 77.8% in 1971 (and to a historic low of 70.1% in 1998). In Switzerland (1974), where compulsory voting was only partially abolished, it fell from 53.2% in 1967 to 43.6% in 1975 (and to a historic low of 34.9% in 1999). In the only canton where voting remained compulsory, turnout is up to 20% higher than in the others (IDEA, 2004, 26–29). In the Philippines (from 1972 until 1987) turnout rose from 53.5% in 1967 to 78.6% in 1978 and fell from 78.2 per cent in 1987 to 65.3 in 1992 (and 64.8% in 2001). In Venezuela (from 1958 until 1993) turnout rose from 52.1% in 1947 to 79.7% in 1958 and fell from 72.7% in 1988 to 50.0% in 1993 (and 46.5% in 2000).""""""While every Austrian citizen had to attend presidential elections until 1980, this was only the case for four provinces in 1986. As everything else remained the same, the evolution in turnout levels can be attributed exclusively to compulsory voting. Before 1986, turnout nowhere deviated much from the average of 95.2% of registered citizens. It rose from 91.6% in 1980 to almost 95% in 1986 in regions retaining compulsory voting and dropped to 85% in regions abolishing it.""" Engelen 2007: survey results from Belgium and Australia suggest that abolishing compulsory voting would reduce turnout by about 30%: """Another way of doing within-country comparisons is by means of surveys in which citizens that have to attend elections are asked whether they would vote if they no longer had to. Although this method tends to overestimate turnout in voluntary voting (would-be abstainers are more likely not to respond at all), results show that abolishing compulsory voting would probably lead to a decline of about 30% in countries like Australia (Jackman, 2001, 16316) and Belgium (Hooghe and Pelleriaux, 1998, 420–421).""" # increased turnout: law passage effects even when not enforced, compulsory voting increases turnout: turnout in countries with non-enforced compulsory voting is still about 6% higher than countries voluntary voting: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/739264882930614342/unknown.png the vast majority of nonvoters in Australia don't even pay a fine: """In practice, the proportion of voters required to pay penalties or taken to court never exceeds 1 per cent of the electorate and is normally much less. For example, following the 1993 federal election, the AEC investigated 490 230 cases of persons who appeared not to have voted, there being a total of 11 384 638 enrolled voters at that election. Of the 490 230, fines of $A20 each were paid by 23 230 electors who had voted (or 4.7 per cent of all nonvoters). The remainder gave valid reasons for not voting, save for 4412 who went to court (or 0.9 per cent of all non-voters). The AEC has no information on what happened thereafter to them.""" # increased representativeness: income, wealth, class Australia and Belgium (both of which have compulsory voting) have some of the lowest income bias (difference between high-income and low-income voter turnout) in the OECD: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/739234954541531257/unknown.png higher turnout correlates with lower income bias (difference between high-income and low-income voter turnout): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/739236099809083412/unknown.png in Bendigo in 1899, property owners were 10% more likely to turn out than non-owners; in Victoria in 1877, property-owners comprised 84% percent of voters despite comprising just 59% of eligible voters (unfortunately, no data exists for comparison immediately after implementation of compulsory voting): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/739237538358755359/unknown.png """Put another way, property-owners comprised 84 percent of the electorate even though they only comprised 59 percent of the eligible voters.""""""Consistent with expectation, owners were 10 percentage points more likely to vote than occupiers. Also, property values are highly correlated with turnout for both owners and occupiers. A single standard deviation increase in property value is associated witha7percentage point increase in an individual’s probability of voting for owners and a 10 percentage point increase in an individual’s probability of voting for occupiers.4""" # importance of high turnout Engelen 2007: higher participation genuinely means more democracy: """Indeed, ‘where few take part in decisions there is little democracy; the more participation there is in decisions, the more democracy there is’ (Verba and Nie, 1972, 1).""""""This forms a problem because governments normally respond to the opinions expressed by citizens in elections: ‘if you don’t vote, you don’t count’ (Burnham, 1987, 99). This assumption has been empirically confirmed. In their cross-country comparison, Mueller and Stratmann (2003, 2151) found that political participation has a positive impact on income equality. The more citizens abstain, the greater income inequality will become.""" # political outcomes: centrist bias moderates are the least likely to vote in general elections and in primary elections: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/739245101015892069/unknown.png in the USA, nonvoters are disproportionately moderate Democrats: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/739244754230968340/unknown.png # political outcomes: leftist bias higher turnout correlates with higher economic redistribution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/739236481817641080/unknown.png # libertarian objections: freedom to stay at home Engelen 2007: compulsory voting is a very small imposition; if you would not allow the state to force citizens to cast a ballot (taking perhaps 15 minutes), one must also not allow the state to force citizens to pay taxes (literally taking a proportion of their work-hours): """However, opponents of compulsory voting are not so easily fobbed off and claim that no government may oblige its citizens to attend elections. This argument functions as some kind of rock-bottom: I oppose compulsory voting because it infringes on my freedom by which I may well prefer to stay at home. One can doubt whether the resistance of opponents who prefer to stay at home is really based on libertarian conscientious objections. Against those who abstain because of pragmatic considerations, one can argue that attending the polling station every two or three years is not too much to ask, especially compared to governmental obligations such as compulsory education and tax duties, which are much more time-consuming (Keaney and Rogers, 2006, 7, 30, 35). Given the importance of democracy, I believe a government has every right and reason to demand this much from its citizens.""" # infromational outcomes de Leon Rizzi 2014: in Brazil, voting is permissible for people 16-18 and mandatory for 18+; political information did not increase among compelled voters compared to non-compelled voters, or among 18-20 year olds compared to 16-18 year olds: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1218393952408043620/image.png A Test for the Rational Ignorance Hypothesis: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Brazil """Our results corroborate Downs' predictions [that people do not acquire costly information to educate their votes] and refute the conjecture by Lijphart (1997) that compulsory voting stimulates civic education. [....] A general observation, also in our sample, is that (voluntary) voters are more informed than nonvoters (Palfrey and Poole 1987). The direct implication of our results is that the electorate under full and forced democracy is likely to be less informed than a self-selected electorate, possibly having direct effects on election outcomes (Leon 2013; Bartels 1996).""" #####c ##### # democracy and plutocracy in the usa: reviewing the median voter theorem, gilens and page, and biased majoritarianism #####o # meta-methodology replication: >70% of definitions support gilens, remainder don't reject Bowman 2020: averaging across 22 definitions of policy disagreement, high-income (90%ile) support (opposition) increases (decreases) likelihood of policy adoption but middle-income (50%ile) opinions do not affect likelihood; see that affluent prefer clusters around ~+15% while middle prefer clusters near ~0%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/947879257919586314/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/947879603878383636/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/947879663043215412/unknown.png # original study: Gilens and Page 2014: the opinions of middle-income people (50%ile) did not predict policy change when controlling for the opinions of high-income people (90%ile) and corporate interest groups: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/646869020884336640/gilens_result1.png Gilens and Page 2014: this suggests that the US is closer to the models of Biased Pluralism (economic elites have more power, average citizens have some power, poor have little power) or Economic Elite Domination (economic elites have all power): # replication in the netherlands Schakel 2019: todo xxx reread: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/647950889113354240/mwz018f3.png # replication in sweden Persson 2021: todo xxx reread: # suggestive evidence: legislative staffers have rich-biased perception of constituencies Hertel-Fernandez et al 2018: todo xxx: # mechanism: lobbying vs structural power Woll 2016: todo xxx reread: # biased pluralism article: poor have less power but some power using better metrics Schakel 2020: todo xxx: # examining the top 0.01% Bonica 2013: todo xxx reread: # grossman critique: methods: splitting policies by issue + win rates Grossman and Isaac 2016 preprint: economic policy, middle class (50th income percentile) public opinion + party support are the only significant predictors of policy adoption: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/716684600469880922/unknown.png # hersh critique: business leaders do not care and voters both do and don't want them involved Hersh 2021: todo xxx reread: # response to bashir Gilens 2016: Bashir's simulation subsets the simulation dataset in such a way that it would be impossible to test Gilens and Page 2014's predictions; when the full dataset is used, it supports Gilens and Page 2014's results as being extremely unlikely to result from chance: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/947883793145036810/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/947884092580573224/unknown.png # what do megadonors believe? Republican megadonors are more economic-right and globalization-left than Republican voters; Democratic megadonors are more economic-left, social-left, and globalization-left than Democratic voters: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/971419861500719124/unknown.png Republican megadonors (especially the Koch network) now exert more financial power than the Republican financial apparatus proper: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/971419223949733908/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/971419234146058291/unknown.png # what do donors believe? Raja and Schaffner 2015: donors as a whole are generally more partisan than general voters: McElwee Schaffner Rhodes 2016: larger political donations correlate with more right-wing beliefs on economic politics: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/971936110349533194/unknown.png McElwee Schaffner Rhodes 2016: Democratic donors who gave above $1000 are to the left of Democratic voters on economic politics: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/971929478630621214/unknown.png # results by party Lax et al 2019: Democrats in the Senate voted in line with the opinions of the poor ~60% of the time and Republicans ~20% of the time : https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/965489479546699816/unknown.png Lax et al 2019: Democrats tend to align with the poor more than the rich; with rich partisans more than poor partisans: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/965489536073359411/unknown.png Rhodes and Schaffner 2017: the DW-NOMINATE ideology score of Democratic Representatives correlate more strongly with the ideology of poor voters in their district than rich voters; the opposite is true for Republicans, who correlate more strongly with the rich: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/456898615336632320/unknown.png Rhodes and Schaffner 2017: CCES 2012 data shows that Democratic Representatives were equally likely to vote for bills their constituents support regardless of income, while Republicans were more likely to vote for bills their high-income constituents support: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/949102235281924166/unknown.png """Individuals with Democratic representatives encounter a mode of representation best described as “populist,” in which the relationship between income and representation is flat (if not negative). However, individuals with Republican representatives experience an “oligarchic” mode of representation, in which wealthy individuals receive much more representation than those lower on the economic ladder.""" Grossman and Isaac 2016 preprint: Democrats in Congress represent the middle class more than the rich while Republicans do the reverse: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/456900147348242452/unknown.png # impacts on policy Bartels 2015 preprint: todo xxx: Bartels 2017 preprint: todo xxx: #####c ##### # democracy and plutocracy: manufacturing consent or market-driven journalism #####o # suggestive evidence: media ownership by the ultra-rich Grossman et al 2022 preprint: an Israeli newspaper created by a rightist billionaire boosted rightist vote share via persuasion; every 1pp increase of media exposure caused ~0.24pp more voters to choose Likud (rightist): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071240786236149831/FPli898WQAIAEn1.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071240805836136539/FPlowzBWUAoEPOw.png How the Ultrarich Use Media Ownership as a Political Investment """Using local media exposure data since the launch, our analysis indicates that the newspaper exerted significant electoral influence, primarily benefiting Netanyahu and his Likud party. This shift helped bring about a sea change in the right’s dominance of national politics. The findings highlight the immense impact the ultrarich can exert in shaping politics through media ownership.""" Martin and Yurukoglu 2017: people tend to watch news media that affirms their own views: http://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/biasmeas.pdf # todo xxx reread https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Chikezie-Uzuegbunam/publication/304140282_Sensationalism_in_the_media_the_right_to_sell_or_the_right_to_tell/links/5838467908ae3a74b49cd484/Sensationalism-in-the-media-the-right-to-sell-or-the-right-to-tell.pdf https://archive.org/details/marketdrivenjour0000mcma/page/n5/mode/2up https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/mediated-politics/reporting-and-the-push-for-marketoriented-journalism-media-organizations-as-businesses/542622970C3BE19D03CD91160EDDF7BC https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-18236-0_24 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/14648849211036285?casa_token=4xsH4cPAICIAAAAA%3AE0LgmYYPqvGXhFYhdWmmLfCCWBCxjY9lBMXJgkaZ1z_GZUeCqV7qnWcMD01lfWf7g9m43wFnbfMP https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1748048512459143?casa_token=sjC3yJsrYgMAAAAA%3A7P8rPzi9b_FoyfsaFmDDxw0Z5HtgO7aOA3QXrKdt3qb-_jAuLArlEFRM4A1gBY3EQ0RgxOYkgxmu https://sci-hub.ru/10.1177/1748048512459143 #####c ##### # democracy and plutocracy in the united states: congressional stock returns #####o # summary If congresspeople have higher-than-reasonable stock investment returns, it may suggest that they are using their position for financial benefit. However, the research on this question is mixed. # ziobrowski studies: returns higher than normal Ziobrowski 2004: US senators see returns of 8%/yr higher than the overall market: Ziobrowski 2011: US representatives see returns of 6%/yr higher than the overall market: # eggers study: returns close to normal, only a few high results Eggers 2013: the trading portfolios of US legislators were insignificantly better or worse than the market for most models of portfolio performance over 2004-2008: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/890374304003407932/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/890374491589476412/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/890374731960827924/unknown.png #####c ##### # money in politics is bad, though its effects are weaker than you might expect [TODO REREAD] #####o # causal: citizens united effects on political outcomes Klumpp 2016: states which were affected by the Citizens United ruling were 4-5pp more likely to elect Republican candidates than before CU: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/925863865886056468/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/925863945242308668/unknown.png todo reread for causal effect # causal evidence: early primary fundraising strongly correlates with vote share in primary elections Bonica 2017: instrumental variable: early fundraising strongly correlates with winning primary races: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982155393654476830/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982155201156874280/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982155849361395762/unknown.png instrument: professional degree of the candidate (reasonably uncorrelated with vote share) # correlational: campaign contributions may bias judges business: 2010-2012 data (weak: not significant for most election types) Shepherd 2013: justices received higher campaign funds and proportionately more funds from businesses in retention elections (3%), nonpartisan elections (17%), and partisan elections (25%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/727717545863544882/unknown.png Shepherd 2013: relative to appointed judges, a higher proportion of business contributions correlated with a higher likelihood with siding with a business; however, this correlation was only significant in nonpartisan elections (not retention elections or partisan elections): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/727720906700357653/unknown.png # correlational: campaign contributions may bias judges business: 1995-1998 data (weak: doesn't compare to appointed judges) Shepherd 2009: in partisan elections, campaign contributions from pro-business groups correlate with voting for businesses, labor groups with voting against employers, insurance companies with businesses and defendants in liability and tort cases; some, but not all, of these correlations are present in nonpartisan elections: (note: this study is weaker b/c it tests each type of contribution separately) https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/728361622686400542/unknown.png n1=>28,000 cases, n2=470 judges; Control variables: judge ideology score, tenure, industrial sector of litigant, type of issue under litigation, proportion of years since 1960 that Republicans have controlled state legislature, whether a lower apellate court exists, whether all supreme court justices vote on all cases (en banc), whether court has discretionary review # industry control of state legislatures: model bills O'Dell 2019: over the previous eight years, 10163 "model" bills were introduced across US states, disproportionately from industry think-tanks (42.3%) and conservative bill factories (39.5%), and about 40% of them are passed into law: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640218327679107103/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982158607812550696/unknown.png # money [UNFORMATTED, UNREAD] But decades of research suggest that money probably isn’t the deciding factor in who wins a general election, and especially not for incumbents. Most of the research on this was done in the last century, Bonica told me, and it generally found that spending didn’t affect wins for incumbents and that the impact for challengers was unclear. Most of the research on this was done in the last century, Bonica told me, and it generally found that spending didn’t affect wins for incumbents and that the impact for challengers was unclear. Most of the research on this was done in the last century, Bonica told me, and it generally found that spending didn’t affect wins for incumbents and that the impact for challengers was unclear # advertising [UNFORMATTED, UNREAD] And, beginning around the mid-2000s, they began making serious progress on understanding how ads actually affect whether people vote and who they vote for. The picture that’s emerged is … well … let’s just say it’s probably rather disappointing to the campaigns that spend a great deal of time and effort raising all that money to begin with. And, beginning around the mid-2000s, they began making serious progress on understanding how ads actually affect whether people vote and who they vote for. The picture that’s emerged is … well … let’s just say it’s probably rather disappointing to the campaigns that spend a great deal of time and effort raising all that money to begin with. And, beginning around the mid-2000s, they began making serious progress on understanding how ads actually affect whether people vote and who they vote for. The picture that’s emerged is … well … let’s just say it’s probably rather disappointing to the campaigns that spend a great deal of time and effort raising all that money to begin with. Take, for example, the study that is probably the nation’s only truly real-world political advertising field experiment. During Rick Perry’s 2006 re-election campaign for Texas governor, a team of researchers convinced Perry’s campaign to run ads in randomly assigned markets and then tracked the effect of those ads over time using surveys. Advertising did produce a pro-Perry response in the markets that received the treatment. But that bump fizzled fast. Within a week after ads stopped running, it was like no one had ever seen them. # participation [UNFORMATTED, UNREAD] Ongoing research from Alexander Fouirnaies, professor of public policy at the University of Chicago, suggests that, as it becomes normal for campaigns to spend higher and higher amounts, fewer people run and more of those who do are independently wealthy. In other words, the arms race of unnecessary campaign spending could help to enshrine power among the well-known and privileged. #####c #####c ##### # # justice system # #####o ##### # judicial election vs judicial appointment: mixed evidence #####o # scope types of selection systems by state: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/727997020882862090/unknown.png # quality: elected judges are more productive, have rates of citation, and are equally independent relative to appointed judges, elected judges are more productive (write more opinions per year: +61.6% for partisan, +29.1% nonpartisan), have similar quality (non-significantly-different citation rates by out-of-state judges), have substantially more dissents (+92.7% for partisan, +76.9% for nonpartisan), and have similar independence (measured by likelihood of disagreeing with same-party judges on the same case): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/728322547048906762/unknown.png n1=27596 opinions, n2=408 state supreme court justices"""Productivity is measured by total number of opinions written for any given year, including dissents and concurrences (Total Opinions).""""""Our primary quality variable is the number of out-ofstate citations to a particular opinion by a particular judge (Outside State Citations).""""""Our independence measure focuses on the tendency of judges to write opinions that disagree with co-partisans when the pool of judges provides opportunities to do so. We define an ‘‘opposing opinion" as either a majority opinion when a dissent exists or a dissent when a majority exists. We assume that a judge exhibits independence when she writes an opposing opinion against a co-partisan.""" ^ control variables: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/728317710085390406/unknown.png whether justice is chief justice, experience in court, experience after law school, years before retirement, age, sex, whether they had served in private practice, justice ideology score, justice salary, whether any new justices joined the court, number of justices, whether retirement is mandatory, clerks per judge, number of trial cases, whether the decision went through an intermediate appellate court, whether publication is mandatory, state age, state population size, crime, median age of state population, median income of state population, proportion black people in population, and ideology of state citizens # quality: appointed judges have better decisions (weak article IMO due to definition of "correct") the rate of "incorrect" decisions (those that disagrees with the rest of the court) is substantially higher for elected judges (.3%) than appointed judges (.1%): γ1 = probability voting correctly, γ0 = incorrectly """[J]udges that are shielded from voters' influence on average also have a lower probability of reaching an incorrect decision (0.1%) than justices that face retention elections (0.5%), and elected justices (0.3%). The effect is larger when we consider the probability of incorrectly overturning the decision of the lower courts. While judges that are shielded from voters' influence incorrectly overturn the lower court very infrequently (0.03%), the corresponding probabilities are 0.7% for justices facing retention elections and 0.6% for justices facing competitive reelections.""" justifications for above methodology: n1=5958 cases, n2=520 state Supreme Court justices: Control variables: `appeal or original or habeas corpus` `whether Petitioner is original defendant or the State` `evidence, sentencing and jury instruction` `years of prior judicial experience` `whether each justice had prior political experience or not` `number of years serving in the state Supreme Court` `whether the justice was elected or appointed` `whether she was appointed for life by elected officials, appointed for one term by elected officials with a possible reappointment by the same elected officials, or appointed for one term by elected officials with a possible reappointment depending on an up-or-down decision by voters in a retention election` `party-adjusted judicial ideology` `citizen (CIT) and government (GOV) ideology for the relevant state`Argument for why non-unanimous decisions are incorrect: """Now, as it is, this identification scheme appears to penalize “maverick” justices who go against the grain by assigning them a low precision parameter. However, in the empirical work, we control for many case-specific covariates, and take into account inherent differences among justices due to political ideology, judicial experience, etc. Therefore, justices with low θ's are those who have attributes that characterize justices who vote inconsistently, even after taking characteristics of the case into account: these are not maverick justices, but erratic ones.""" # independence: elected judges tend to vote in favor of state voter preferences (not independent) Republican judges elected in partisan elections are substantially more likely to vote for businesses over individuals, employers over workers, doctors/hospitals over malpractice claimants, and defendants in tort cases -- however, these relations all disappear (except tort) if the judge is in their final term before mandatory retirement, suggesting re-election is the motivating factor: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/728359953173184613/unknown.png n1=>28,000 cases, n2=470 judges; Control variables: judge ideology score, tenure, industrial sector of litigant, type of issue under litigation, proportion of years since 1960 that Republicans have controlled state legislature, whether a lower apellate court exists, whether all supreme court justices vote on all cases (en banc), whether court has discretionary review # independence: appointed judges and partisan judges tend to vote in favor of the state government (not independent) justices selected by the legislature or governor and justices elected in partisan races are more likely to vote in favor of the state, and this likelihood increases as they approach the end of their term (regression coefficient = percentage point difference in cases decided): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/728435540986429460/unknown.png """The magnitudes of the marginal effects are statistically significant, but not huge. For example, the results suggest that a judge facing a gubernatorial reappointment, compared to the base category of judges facing unopposed retention elections, is approximately 7 percentage points more likely to vote in favor of the executive branch litigant.""" # diversity: little difference both elective and appointive systems are producing similarly poor outcomes in terms of the diversity of judges: """Mark S. Hurwitz & Drew Noble Lanier, Diversity in State and Federal Appellate Courts: Change and Continuity Across 20 Years, 29 Just. Sys. J. 47, 52-53 (2008); see also id. at 52 (showing in 2005 nationally 12.97% of merit selected state appellate judges and 11.48% of elected state appellate judges are minorities and 23.35% of merit selected state appellate judges and 28.12% of elected state appellate judges are women); id at 66 (stating black women do fare somewhat better in electoral systems but Hispanic men seemed disadvantaged by elections); see also Mark S. Hurwitz & Drew Noble Lanier, An Examination of Judicial Diversity in the State Courts Over Time, 85 Judicature 84, 88.(2001) (finding “by 1999 there was no tangible difference in the ability of NWMs [nonwhite males] to attain a position in the judiciary via either merit or non-merits systems.”).""" # history of judicial elections judicial elections emerged as an anti-corruption reform: """Shugerman discovered that at first the plan to create a more independent judiciary through popular elections worked. The first generation of elected judges in the early 19th century exercised the power of judicial review far more often than their predecessors did. Perhaps ironically, these democratically elected judges were also the first to criticize democratic excesses and to argue from a countermajoritarian perspective.""""""“I began the book feeling horrified by American judicial elections,” Shugerman says. When his research revealed that a significant impetus behind them was to correct for the corruption and partisanship of judicial appointments, he saw that judicial elections had a good-faith logic in their 19th-century context. From the republic’s earliest days, Shugerman notes, the challenge of judicial selection has been to balance judicial accountability, which demands that judges bend to popular and political pressures, and judicial independence, which demands judicial allegiance to the rule of law. As he mined the historical record, he found that judicial election advocates vied for popular support for their cause by framing it primarily in terms of judicial independence.""""""Of all the methods he looks at, Shugerman claims that merit selection, which involves vetting by a panel of professionals and executive appointment to a first term, followed by retention elections, has yielded the most judicial independence. It is currently employed in about 20 states. But he warns that it, too, may be adversely affected by the excessive campaign spending that preceded and may now be accelerated indirectly by Citizens United.""" [unformatted] #####c ##### # judicare for all / public legal spending good #####o # rich vs poor spending on law total federal, state, and local spending on legal aid was just $1.385 billion in 2013: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640216854891069442/unknown.png JPMorgan Chase alone spends $3-12 billion per year on legal cases: # legal aid: per capita spending: pretty sources the USA spends far less per capita on legal aid than other countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640215959940104217/D4cT5ZCWsAA9GzT.png the USA spends far less per capita on legal aid than other countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640214878925357106/Public-expenditure-on-courts-and-legal-aid-as-a-percentage-of-the-national-budget-Source_W640.png # legal aid: per capita spending: ugly sources per capita spending: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640215030822076437/unknown.png per capita spending: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640215188699742239/unknown.png per capita spending: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640214036214054942/unknown.png #####c ##### # private arbitration bad #####o # arbitration vs courts (ancap talking point) mandatory arbitration reduces employee winrate by 15% in absolute terms and (41.2% in relative terms) and reduces employee damages received by 140000 (79.3%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/678444382722195537/m.png 56.2% of private-sector nonunion employees are subject to mandatory employment arbitration -- preventing them from using public courts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/725543126139142174/144117-17836.png #####c #####c ##### # # supreme court # #####o ##### # major institutional reforms #####o # socialist view Marcetic 2020: : """The historic left project, which some of us have been trying to revive, was always to disempower the court. Socialists in the early twentieth century denounced the court for its defense of laissez-faire capitalism. And the Left originated a ton of reform proposals. Since 2016, there has been talk of packing the court in response to the denial of Barack Obama’s last nomination, Merrick Garland, and in response to Ginsburg’s death this talk is reaching a crescendo. But actually, court packing was not what the socialists wanted. They wanted to disempower the court through various devices, like getting rid of judicial review (the power to invalidate popular legislation as unconstitutional), which is a late development in US constitutional history. And socialists also devised various strategies of disempowering the court, like jurisdiction stripping (prohibiting the court from hearing cases) or requiring a supermajority rule for it to strike down laws. All this was thought out a century ago in the context of attempts to get labor law to pass and then survive constitutional scrutiny. Our memories are of court packing, because that’s what FDR attempted. But there are good American traditions, especially on the Left, of trying to face down the Supreme Court in many different ways.""" #####c ##### # originalism sucks #####o # books todo Segall 2019: Originalism As Faith: # ironically, originalism supports narrow/weak judicial review instead of wide/strong judicial review Segall 2022: """On the other hand, in all other cases, overwhelming evidence suggests that originalist judges should rarely overturn state or federal laws. What that means for today is whether the case involves affirmative action, free speech, abortion, gun rights, separation of powers, federalism, or most other constitutional questions, judges should only invalidate state or federal laws upon a clear showing by the plaintiff of constitutional error and an opinion that makes extremely transparent the nature of that error.""" Segall 2022: """For example, Originalist Professor Chris Green has written the following: "Judicial review is the exercise of an extremely important, weighty, and not-easily-corrected power. Courts may refuse to enforce statutes, but only when they conflict with state or federal constitutions, and clearly so." Similarly, Originalist Professor John McGinnis has said the following: "Those who framed the Constitution and rendered justice in the early Republic did understand judicial duty as requiring a clear incompatibility between the Constitution and a statute before displacing the latter by the former." These modern-day Originalists are correct that the founding fathers believed that judges would exercise judicial review modestly, sparingly, and only after trying every reasonable way possible to avoid declaring state and federal laws invalid.""" Segall 2022: """Alexander Hamilton in Federalist No. 78, responding to a critic of ratification who believed that the Supreme Court would be too strong, said that judges would not strike down laws unless they were at an "irreconcilable variance" or against the "manifest tenor" of the Constitution. Both of those phrases were meant by Hamilton to suggest strong judicial deference.""" Segall 2019: expands on the narrow/weak judicial review historical argument: # originalist hypocrisy: originalists are selective, simply picking and choosing what constitutional doctrines Segall 2014: campaign finance rulings are not based in historical precedent: """Last term, in McCutcheon v. FEC, Justice Thomas repeated his familiar refrain that the Founding Fathers thought that political speech was vitally important and needed special protection under the First Amendment. Fair enough, but that determination tells us nothing about whether the people alive in 1791 would have equated the writing of a campaign check by a person in Virginia to a politician in California as the equivalent of constitutionally protected political speech. Of course, even if writing a check is the equivalent of political speech pursuant to the original meaning of the First Amendment, the question remains whether such speech can be regulated to further the vital governmental interest in preventing corruption. Neither Justice has ever addressed that key issue as a historical matter, though Lawrence Lessig has, and concluded that the Framers’ view of corruption would have been broad enough to justify most campaign finance laws.11 Scalia and Thomas have not addressed that historical analysis.""" Segall 2014: rulings which prevent the federal government from requiring states to assist actions under enumerated powers ("commandeering") are not based in historical precedent: """In Printz v. United States, after saying that that “there is no constitutional text speaking to this precise question,”25 Justice Scalia did turn to specific historical materials directly on point. Unfortunately, those materials led more to the conclusion Scalia did not favor—that Congress could, when exercising its enumerated powers, require the states to help implement federal laws-than the conclusion Scalia actually adopted. Alexander Hamilton addressed the commandeering issue in the Federalist papers and wrote that “the legislatures, courts, and magistrates, of the respective members, will be incorporated into the operations of the national government as far as its just and constitutional authority extends; and will be rendered auxiliary to the enforcement of its laws.”26""""""Despite two Supreme Court cases on the subject, neither Justice Scalia nor Justice Thomas have come up with a shred of historical evidence that would contradict the clear meaning of the Tenth Amendment that, when Congress exercises its enumerated powers, its authority is supreme unless contradicted by another textual limitation.""" Segall 2014: the 11th Amendment has been twisted to provide sovereign immuity to states against their own citizens, against the explicit text of the Amendment: """There is perhaps no better example of how Justices Scalia and Thomas ignore clear text and relevant history when it suits their purposes than their interpretations of the Eleventh Amendment, which provides: [t]he Judicial power of the United States shall not be construed to extend to any suit in law or equity, commenced or prosecuted against one of the United States by Citizens of another State, or by Citizens or Subjects of any Foreign State.29 The Eleventh Amendment quite obviously bars any suit, whether for damages or an injunction, against a state by citizens of “another” state. Both Justices Scalia and Thomas, however, have interpreted this language to bar lawsuits by citizens of a state against their home state.30 In other words, they have taken the word “another” and twisted it to mean “the same.” They engaged in this fancy word play despite the beliefs of four modern Justices that the Amendment only bars suits against states by citizens of a different state, consistent with the clear text.31 Obviously, they must have been convinced by some pretty clear history to so distort unambiguous text. In Justice Scalia’s only discussion of this issue, he relies not on the original meaning of the Eleventh Amendment to support the twisted reading but instead on Hans v. Louisiana, 32 a case decided by the Supreme Court in 1890 (ninety-five years after the amendment was ratified), which adopted that bizarre reading of the Eleventh Amendment with little analysis.""" # originalists have openly accepted that ideas of equality have changed over time Segall 2017: Bork argued that the 14th amendment introduced a "core idea" about equality: """Judge Robert Bork, a hero to originalists, made several arguments about Brown. In a 1971 law review article, he argued that the 14th Amendment “was intended to enforce a core idea of black equality against government discrimination.” In short, he created an abstract ideal, opening the door to arguing that what “equal” meant in 1868 is different from what it meant in 1954 (and today). But of course, once that move is made for “equal,” why not for “due process,” “establishment,” “cruel and unusual,” and other vague constitutional language that Bork thought liberal judges and scholars abused?""" # gay marriage is anti-originalist Segall 2017: the framers of the 14th amendment were almost certainly opposed to gay marriage; a strict reading of "equality" would destroy the legality of gay marriage: """As Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the law school at the University of California Irvine, has pointed out, a serious text-and-history approach (as opposed to a lip service one) would mean the end of judicial protection “for liberties such as the right to marry, the right to procreate, the right to custody of one’s children, the right to keep the family together, the right of parents to control the upbringing of their children, the right to purchase and use contraceptives, the right to abortion, the right to refuse medical care, [and] the right to engage in private consensual homosexual activity. No longer would women be protected from discrimination under equal protection.”""" # desegregated schools are anti-originalist Turner 2014: Brown v Board of Education was an anti-originalist decision, given that segregation was widespread: """Turning to Brown, McConnell observes that the Court’s opinion “gives every impression that the Court thought it was struggling against the historical understanding and original meaning of the Constitution—an impression that, I am now convinced, was unnecessary and even misleading.”198 He acknowledges that “the practice of school segregation was widespread in both Southern and Northern states, as well as the District of Columbia, at the time of the proposal and ratification of the Amendment, and almost certainly enjoyed the support of a majority of the population even at the height of Reconstruction.”199 McConnell thus doubts that Congress would have proposed or that the people of the states would have ratified “an Amendment understood to outlaw so deeply ingrained an institutional practice.”200 One could understandably conclude that this acknowledgement and doubt foreclosed any argument that a—or the—meaning of the Fourteenth Amendment prohibited racial segregation in the public schools. But McConnell’s originalist analysis evades this conclusion by focusing not on the 1866–1868 framing/adoption period but on his chosen 1868–1875 postratification timeframe.""" #####c #####c #####c ##### # # court packing # #####o ##### # constitutionality #####o # not set by constitution the text of the US constitution, Article 3, does not set the number of Supreme Court justices: the number of Supreme Court justices has varied substantially over time; prior to 1869, a supreme court justice was added for each federal circuit added (we currently have 13 -- 11 + DC + FED): # timeline 1789: 6 justices: 1807: 7 justices: 1837: 9 justices: 1863: 10 justices: 1866: 7 justices: 1869: 9 justices: #####c ##### # partisanship: history of escalation #####o # increasing partisanship of appointments since 1993, the partisanship of every Supreme Court nominee has steadily increased: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772592564724957214/unknown.png # timeline 1987: Democrats win Bork partisan vote: 2005: Republicans threaten to end filibuster, de-escalate in deal to withdraw some nominees: 2013: Democrats win 52-48 vote to eliminate filibuster for non-Supreme-Court judicial nominees: 2016: Republicans fail to consider Garland nomination: 2017: Republicans win 52-48 vote to eliminate filibuster for Supreme Court judicial nominees: 2019: Republicans win 52-48 vote to appoint Barrett nomination: #####c ##### # partisanship: lack of judicial independence #####o # congressional opinion affects supreme court decisions Clark 2009: when the Court is unpopular, it strikes down fewer laws: a hostile Congress strongly correlates with a decrease in laws struck down by the Supreme Court: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772594058563682314/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772594213770231828/unknown.png # popular opinion affects supreme court decisions Epstein and Martin 2012: public opinion strongly predicts court decisions at the case level (better than previous studies, which aggregate over each year): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772601409124040724/unknown.png # popular opinion may not affect supreme court decisions Casillas et al 2010: the Supreme Court's decisions on politically salient issues (defined as "appearing on the front page of the NYT") are not significantly predicted by popular opinion -- however, this may be endogenous due to the definition of "salient" (nonsalient issues ARE predicted by popular opinion; it's possible the NYT does not report on cases that align with public opinion): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772596769770438678/unknown.png # effects on judicial legitimacy Casillas et al 2010: the Supreme Court is more popular when it aligns with public opinion: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772596474156285992/unknown.png #####c ##### # partisanship: ideology of justices over time #####o # Bailey score the addition of ACB would make the Supreme Court the most conservative it's ever been -- and with the largest gap between House (-.3), Senate (-.3), Presidential (-.9), and Supreme Court (+.8) ideology scores ever: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772581879970005073/4X53YO6QDNE5VHYRMTTNXKA56Q.png """While very liberal during the Warren Court from 1953 to 1969, the court median has hovered on the center right since the mid-1970s, except for a brief liberal interlude after Justice Antonin Scalia’s death in February 2016 until Neil M. Gorsuch filled that seat in early 2017.""""""[N]ot only would the court median become substantially more conservative than it is today, it would become the most conservative court across the entire measured period. The court could also be more conservative than the elected branches to a degree not seen in 70 years. Given the high probability that Democrats will retain control of the House, the expected court median is likely to be vastly more conservative than the House median.""" # Martin-Quinn score despite previous escalations, the SCOTUS has remained near "0" (neither liberal or conservative leaning) since 1935; this is because judges have usually replaced ideologically similar judges; the appointment of ACB will shift the court dramatically rightward even if she is a moderate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772578730719051827/1280px-Graph_of_Martin-Quinn_Scores_of_Supreme_Court_Justices_1937-Now.png """How does this measure compare to existing measures of judicial preferences? We first correlate our measure with the percentage conservative voting on civil rights, civil liberties, economics, and federalism cases across a justice’s career [these measures, as well as the percent liberalism scores below, are taken from Epstein et al. (2001)]. This is in the spirit of the methodological audit of Epstein and Mershon (1996). The results are quite interesting: the posterior means correlate with these issue areas at −0.86, −0.83, −0.70, and −0.60, respectively (J = 29). These clearly outperform the scores of Segal and Cover (1989), which correlate at 0.63, 0.60, 0.43, and 0.33 (J = 29). This justifies the unidimensionality assumption because one dimension explains a good deal of variance across many issue areas. The measure also correlates highly with Schubert’s (1974) C-scale (0.77) and E-scale (0.56) (J = 17) and Rohde and Spaeth’s (1976) freedom (−0.79), equality (−0.75), and New Deal (−0.85) scales (J = 18).""" #####c ##### # solutions: term limits #####o since 1960, the average justice joined the court at ~45 and left at ~75 years old: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/771825730811461642/unknown.png ^ we haven't been appointing them younger, they've just been living longer: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/771852472457232445/unknown.png since ~1950, the average Supreme Court justice's tenure rose from ~15 years to ~25 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/771850533602459669/unknown.png # unformatted organization in favor of this effect: ro khanna's bill: ro khanna on 5-4 podcast: another article on the same subject: ^ critique of term limits -- to me, this just suggests that longer term limits (eg 30 years) + fixed appointment rates (eg, 1 per 2 years) are better: #####c ##### # solutions: credible threat via constitutional hardball #####o # inspiration inspiration: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772622628431069184/unknown.png inspiration: """In the first step, Democrats will pass a bill that adds four new Supreme Court seats. Crucially, however, the bill would contain two limitations: 1: The new seats would not be open until (say) September 1, 2022 (while the Democrats still control the White House and Senate). 2: The new seats would never be open (i.e., the bill would have no effect) if a stabilizing constitutional Amendment was passed by that date.""""""Republicans would be faced with two options: 1: Escalatory option: Cede their hard-won SCOTUS majority to the Democrats in two years by allowing President Biden to appoint four new Justices. 2: Stabilizing option: Work with the Democrats to pass the Amendment and temporarily preserve their 2/3 SCOTUS majority.""" # retaliation the GOP has already played hardball and ignored the rules: """[I]f the Democrats pack the courts, Republicans will retaliate by packing the courts even more when next they are in power. [....] That is, if the left expands the court’s membership to 15, then the Republicans will expand it to 17, or 19, when they are in power next. And that makes sense until you remember: didn’t the Republicans already adjust the size of the court (shrinking it to eight, by refusing to consider Judge Merrick Garland’s nomination) when they had the power to do it?""" if the GOP did retaliate, the left and Democrats would be in just as bad a position as they currently are: """And if, in a decade, the right did further expand the court and take back control of it … how would that leave the left in any position that’s worse than now? This objection (“what if they retaliate?!”) feels, in present circumstances, a bit like worrying that if the Allies invade Normandy, the Nazis will shoot at them. It’s not wrong, exactly, but it seems bereft of some of the essential context.""" #####c ##### # solutions: lottery: lower court partisanship #####o # gop forced vacancies the GOP happily held up lower court appointments: Obama was the only modern president to leave office with more vacancies than he entered with -- Trump has enormously lowered vacancies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772306630128828427/unknown.png ^ vacancies were enormously larger than appointments for every year of Obama's term: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772306266227212338/gs_20160906_wheeler011.png # gop filled vacancies Trump appointed 28% of circuit of appeals judgeships, compared to Obama's 14%; Trump appointed 21% of all judgeships (district + appeals), compared to Obama's 14%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772304353079328768/unknown.png # gop dominates lower courts Republican-appointed judges are now 54% of the appeals judges (up from 40% at Trump's inauguration): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772305494668345344/unknown.png #####c ##### # solutions: lottery: instability from randomness #####o 50000 trial graph of 179 50/50 split court decisions (+1 to one side): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772316712854355968/unknown.png 50000 trial graph of .5 binomial distribution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772316734321328178/unknown.png 50000 trial graph of 0,3 normal distribution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772317993505914900/unknown.png #####c ##### # solutions: 5-5-5: problems #####o # let congress rule if the court can't find 5 justices to fill the "middle", the party who has control of Congress/President may simply choose not to rule on cases that year # two party lock this formalizes two party rule, which makes it harder to move towards a diverse party system. #####c ##### # solutions: problems with impeaching justices #####o it's hard. #####c ##### # polling #####o # impeachment support for impeachment rose sharply from 51% against 38% support (-13) to 43% against 49% support (+6) after the Democrats announced impeachment articles: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772609135812411422/unknown.png # court packing support for court packing is currently 47% against 34% support (-13): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772609873220993054/washington-examiner-charts-01.png # term limits support for term limits for the Supreme Court is very strong, at 77% support 23% against (+54%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772611029279703050/unknown.png #####c ##### # bastiat debate #####o # summary summary of the debate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772623533338656808/Eljw9T8XYAAUOc6.png # game theory minimum demand: balanced courts; maximum demand: court reform --> game theory: structure demand in such a way that escalation (accepting minimum demand but rejecting maximum demand) is less desireable than reform (accepting maximum demand) # proposal my proposal: the ranked choice term limited or RCTL supreme court - 20 year term limit ^ prevents any president from appointing more than 8/20=40% of the court ^ prevents justices from exceeding historical term limit - every 2 years, ranked choice selection of 5 justices (total court size: 50) ^ ensures ~2 lib, ~2 con, ~1 moderate # bastiat solutions: lottery and 5-5-5 court "This seems to be Bastiat's preferred solution. Maybe you guys can simply agree on that lol:" "Yeah, this is my position - thanks" news article describing solutions: academic article describing solutions: "Under this framework, we evaluate existing proposals and offer two of our own: the Supreme Court Lottery and the Balanced Bench." # federalist papers federalist no. 78: The legislature not only commands the purse, but prescribes the rules by which the duties and rights of every citizen are to be regulated. The judiciary, on the contrary, has no influence over either the sword or the purse; no direction either of the strength or of the wealth of the society; and can take no active resolution whatever. It may truly be said to have neither FORCE nor WILL, but merely judgment; and must ultimately depend upon the aid of the executive arm even for the efficacy of its judgments. # ginsberg quotes Ginsberg opposed court-packing because she felt it would reduce judicial independence: """"If anything would make the court look partisan, it would be that — one side saying, 'When we're in power, we're going to enlarge the number of judges, so we would have more people who would vote the way we want them to.' We are blessed in the way no other judiciary in the world is. We have life tenure. The only way to get rid of a federal judge is by impeachment. Congress can't retaliate by reducing our salary, so the safeguards for judicial independence in this country, I think, are as great or greater than anyplace else in the world."""" Ginsberg's argument hinges on the idea that people follow the judiciary's rulings: """But the whole notion of the country's independent judiciary hinges on public trust, she noted. "The court has no troops at its command," Ginsburg pointed out, "doesn't have the power of the purse, and yet time and again, when the courts say something, people accept it." She recalled Bush v. Gore, the controversial case in which the Supreme Court stopped a Florida recount in the 2000 presidential election. "I dissented from that decision," Ginsburg said. "I thought it was unwise. A lot of people disagreed with it. And yet the day after the court rendered its decision, there were no riots in the streets. People adjusted to it. And life went on."""" #####c #####c ##### # # media # #####o ##### # media bias towards capitalists: real and significant #####o # media supports advertiser narratives news outlets reported about 17% of corporate social irresponsibility (CSI) events studied; a news outlet is more likely to report CSI if the outlet is a daily publication (+3.6-3.9%), if it is left-leaning (+2.8% relative to right-leaning), and if the incident came from a large or well-known corporation; a news outlet is less likely to report CSI if it has an advertising relationship (-.9%) or if it has a selective advertising relationship (-7.8%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/708111548694003773/unknown.png # media prefers scandals to policy online media focused more on Hillary Clinton's scandals than her politics: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536267934318985247/unknown.png # media prefers sensationalism ("it bleeds, it leads"): good study Ritchie 2019: compared to both actual frequency of deaths and frequency of Google Searches, the NYT and Guardian were more likely to cover certain types of death -- terrorism (~3400x actual, 5x Google), homicide (26x actual, 7x Google) -- and less likely to cover others -- road incidents & accidents (0.3x actual, 0.2x Google), cancer (.3x actual, .37x Google): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/950877219226538034/Causes-of-death-in-USA-vs.-media-coverage.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/950883537148596264/Over-and-underrepresentation-of-deaths-in-media.png # media prefers sensationalism ("it bleeds, it leads"): bad study Dalal 2015: in a convenience sample of major events, the New York Times was substantially more likely to cover deaths from terrorism than deaths from disease, drowning, or natural disasters: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/950868438715359332/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/950868450027372564/unknown.png Dalal 2015: the New York Times is significantly more likely to cover terrorism than other kinds of death: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/950870400940802048/unknown.png #####c ##### # media bias toward liberals/leftists: mixture #####o # liberal overrepresentation among journalists: real Willnat and Weaver 2014: journalists are 4x more likely to be affiliated as Democratic (28.1%) than Republican (7.1%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536590716378415124/unknown.png # conservative overrepresentation among media content: real Power and Miller 2018: Sunday talk news shows actually tilt conservative: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640937903370797093/Sunday-Show-Guests.png CNN actually gives Republican guests more air time than Democratic guests: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471458421699510292/unknown.png # liberal or conservative bias on youtube Ledwich and Zaitsev 2020: the "partisan left" and the "partisan right" are equally more likely to be recommended to an anonymous user: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976210565070487552/mlfigure6.png # conspiracies to keep leftist media down the BBC secretly colluded with MI5 to keep out leftist journalists: #####c ##### # publicly funded media effective: govtreon, news vouchers, media vouchers, journalism vouchers #####o # background: us subsidized media extensively CJR 2010: uniquely among governments of the time, the US government recognized that the market wouldn't underfund investigative media, so they subsidized media to the tune of $30 billion (0.2% of GDP): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868276307404935208/unknown.png """There was no notion that “the market,” unsubsidized, would produce sufficient journalism; the idea was unthinkable until the late 19th or early 20th century, when, with the striking explosion in advertising, commercial interests began to prosper. To that end, in the first generations of our nation’s history the federal government instituted extraordinarily large postal and printing subsidies with the explicit goal of broadening and deepening the amount of newspapers and periodical in the United States. These were brilliant subsidies that did not favor a single party or viewpoint; indeed, they made much of the abolitionist press possible while also supporting pro-slavery publications. If the United States federal government devoted the same percentage of GDP to subsidizing journalism today that it did in the 1840s, for example, the expenditure would be around $30 billion. Indeed the one area that distinguished the American government from European governments at the time was its commitment to creating a huge and credible democratic press system.""" # cjr's citizenship news voucher CJR 2010: explaining the "Citizenship News Voucher" concept: $200/yr voucher to nonprofit media as defined broadly by the IRS: """The idea is simple: every American adult gets a $200 voucher she can use to donate government money to any nonprofit news medium of her choice. She will indicate her choice on her tax return. If she does not file a tax return, a simple form will be available to use. She can split her $200 among several different qualifying nonprofit media. This program would be purely voluntary, like the tax-form check-offs for funding elections or protecting wildlife. A government agency, possibly operating out of the Internal Revenue Service, can be set up to allocate the funds and to determine eligibility—according to universal standards that err on the side of expanding rather than constraining the number of qualifying media.""" # baker's artistic freedom voucher Baker 2003: explains the program artistic freedom voucher (AFV): """The AFV would allow each individual to contribute a refundable tax credit of approximately $100 to a creative worker of their choice, or to an intermediary who passes funds along to creative workers. Recipients of the AFV (creative workers and intermediaries) would be required to register with the government in the same way that religious or charitable organizations must now register for tax-exempt status. This registration is only for the purpose of preventing fraud – it does not involve any evaluation of the quality of the work being produced.""" Baker 2003: explains funding for the AFV and scope of its benefits: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868277958396215346/unknown.png """In exchange for receiving AFV support, creative workers would be ineligible for copyright protection for a significant period of time (e.g. five years). Copyrights and the AFV are alternative ways in which the government supports creative workers. Creative workers are entitled to be compensated once for their work, not twice. The AFV would not affect a creative workers ability to receive money for concerts or other live performances. [....] A $100 per adult voucher would be sufficient to pay 500,000 writers, musicians, singers, actors, or other creative workers $40,000 a year. All of the material produced by these workers would be placed in the public domain where it could be freely reproduced.""" ^ status quo: 5 million cultural workers: """There were 5.2 million arts and cultural sector jobs in America in 2017—accounting for 3.3% of all U.S. jobs—which collectively paid workers a total of $446.7 billion. Explore your state’s level of arts employment with NASAA’s Creative Economy State Profiles.""" Baker 2003: explains savings from waiving of copyright: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/853451591033159680/unknown.png """The AFV would create a vast amount of uncopyrighted material. [....] Under plausible assumptions, the savings from reduced expenditures on copyrighted material would vastly exceed the cost of the AFV. [....] The AFV would immediately create a pool of money (approximately $20 billion annually) to support creative and artistic workers that is far larger than the amount that currently flows to them through copyright-protected material. [...] [T]he current distribution of royalties and related payments is heavily concentrated among a small group of singers, actors, writers and other creative workers[.] [...] This means that almost all creative workers would stand to earn far more through the AFV system than through the copyright system. [....] The projections assume much more modest savings (20 percent in the high savings scenario and 10 percent in the low savings scenario) in the case of books, advertising, and cable and pay TV. In these cases, a much higher proportion of the costs are attributable to the physical production and distribution of the material, rather than the compensation of the creative workers.""" # public-funded sources are trustworthy RJI 2017: even for conservatives, publicly funded media (NPR, PBS, BBC, public TV in general) has higher trust: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/442821850158858263/unknown.png RJI 2017: even for conservatives, publicly funded media (NPR, PBS) has higher trust: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/459766155897339924/unknown.png # public-funded sources reduce right-wing extremism Chandel 2016: # todo xxx reread https://www.ebu.ch/video-talks/membersonly/2021/09/no-democracy-without-media-a-research-perspective https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0267323121991334 https://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/70218 https://www.ebu.ch/publications/research/login_only/report/trust-in-media https://www.ebu.ch/news/2022/01/public-media-and-democracy-in-turbulent-times--lessons-from-lithuania Pickard 2008: McChesney 2011: https://techliberation.com/2010/04/14/the-wrong-way-to-reinvent-media-part-3-media-vouchers/#_ftn12 https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/public_events/how-will-journalism-survive-internet-age/mcchesney.pdf https://twitter.com/DemocracyPolicy/status/1351246730776330241 https://www.jspp.psychopen.eu/index.php/jspp/article/view/96/37 https://www.niemanlab.org/2011/03/funding-public-media-how-the-us-compares-to-the-rest-of-the-world/ https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rJrpsZJg_FZX7Fk396v8reyEF-0fRweGRBUKcJcoQ4I/edit https://nofilmschool.com/2014/01/sundance-infographic-numbers-in-independent-film https://www.documentarytelevision.com/documentary-budget/sundance-and-the-single-documentary-economy-the-1-3-billion-cost-of-missing-out/ #####c ##### # echo-chambers / echo chambers: very real #####o # right-wing online echo-chamber right-wing users exist within a right-wing media echochamber where the furthest-right news is rewarded and center-right news is shunned: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536269210389577740/unknown.png The particular prominence of the right-most column in Figure 2.7 reflects the overwhelming prominence of Breitbart, as also reflected in the network maps. [...] On Twitter, the center-right is the least represented. On Facebook, both the center and center-right garnered relatively little attention. This pattern suggests that social media sharing in general is more partisan than hyperlinking, and sharing on Facebook is more partisan than on Twitter. right-wing users exist within a right-wing media echochamber where Breitbart and Fox dominate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536272411893563423/unknown.png While the prominence of individual media sources in the right-wing sphere varies when assessed by shares on Facebook and Twitter, the content and core structure, with Breitbart at the center, is stable across platforms. Even in the highly charged pre-election months, everyone outside the Breitbart-centered universe formed a tightly interconnected attention network, with major traditional mass-media and professional sources at the core. The right, by contrast, formed its own insular sphere centered on Breitbart. [....] Outside the rightwing ecosystem, we did not see a leftward polarization but its opposite—an increase in the authority of, and attention paid to, the traditional professional media that occupy the center and center-left, at the expense of the left. On the right, the most important shift was that Fox News reasserted its authority as the central node of the online right-wing media ecosystem. This revival came at the expense of Breitbart, which declined to second place online (leaving aside Fox dominance of conservative television throughout the election and post-election periods). However, Fox News’s resurgence did not increase connections between the right and the rest of the network. During the election, Fox online received 40 percent of its inlinks from the right quintile. In the year after the election, Fox received 51 percent of its links from the right quintile. This shift reflected a decline in linking to Fox across-the-board, not only from the left. Indeed, links from the center-right and the center to Fox declined proportionately more than did links from the center-left and left.8 #####c ##### # fake news: electoral effects #####o # effects: 2016 election in 2016, belief in 1 or more of 3 fake news stories (Pope Francis endorsed Trump, Clinton sold weapons to ISIS, Clinton had very serious illness) is correlated with vote switching from Obama to Trump: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641985676136415252/ISLAR3RGQM52ZOEVYXX6LHM7VA.png ^ how many people looked at these stories? pope francis: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ysnzawW6pDGBEqbXqeYuzWa7Rx2mQUip6CXUUUk4jIk/edit#gid=1756764129 ^ example of fabricated news: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/498269876486537222/unknown.png completely false articles made up 2.6 percent of all hard-news articles late in the 2016 campaign: In total, articles on proTrump or pro-Clinton fake news websites represented an average of approximately 2.6% of all the articles Americans read on sites focusing on hard news topics during this period. The pro-Trump or pro-Clinton fake news that people read was heavily skewed toward Donald Trump — people saw an average (mean) of 5.45 articles from fake news websites during the study period of October 7–November 14, 2016. Nearly all of these were pro-Trump (average of 5.00 pro-Trump articles). in the last 3 months of the 2016 election, the 20 most popular false election stories generated 1.3 million more Facebook engagements than the 20 most popular legitimate stories: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471518377576366090/sub-buzz-441-1479332078-1.png # fake news: penetration a significant portion of the population -- about 10% -- believes that InfoWars is credible: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640984451937206273/FakeNews-toplines.png # fake news: general fake news spreads faster than true news: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471490435877961730/unknown.png ad hominem attacks against science reduce the credibility of science: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982150871934726174/unknown.png # psychology: fake news people with weaker cognitive ability have a harder time judging fake news objectively: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641996458249289750/1-s2.png delusional, dogmatic, and fundamentalist people have a harder time judging fake news as fake: social exclusion increases belief in conspiracy theories: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641996525593165849/1-s2.png most people (and most young people) have a hard time sifting fact from fiction: [A]t each level -- middle school, high school, and college -- these variations paled in comparison to a stunning and dismaying consistency. Overall, young people's ability to reason about the information on the Internet can be summed up in one word: bleak. # solution: education Craft 2017: people with better understandings of news is produced are significantly less likely to believe in conspiracy theories (1 additional answer on the News Media Knowledge Scale correlated with a -0.3 of 4 [7.5% if Likert is linear] reduction in conspiracy theory endorsement): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/824669198533001237/unknown.png education can reduce belief in fake news: Compared to the control group, L2D participants were: 28% more likely to demonstrate sophisticated knowledge of the news media industry[.] 25% more likely to self-report checking multiple news sources[.] 13% more likely to correctly identify and critically analyze a fake news story[.] 4% more likely to express a sense of agency over what news sources they can access[.] #####c ##### # fake news: higher prominence among the right #####o # right-wing sharing of fake news old people, Republicans, and conservatives are more likely to share fake news: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/540948735836815360/F2.png fake news is disproportionately consumed by the right: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640984562385551390/unknown.png ^ source of fake news: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/498268400158507008/unknown.png fake news is disproportionately consumed by the right: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471489238831988736/unknown.png On Twitter, a network of Trump supporters consumes the largest volume of junk news, and junk news is the largest proportion of news links they share. # right-wing belief in fake news young people are better able to identify opinion from fact: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640984815109144606/FT_18.png of American conservatives, only a minority trust sources other than Fox News and talk radio: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640984870629277717/PJ_14.png republicans are more likely than democrats to believe fake news and less likely to believe true news: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471462924171477002/unknown.png # project veritas lies: anecdotes Project Veritas uses cuts to maliciously misrepresent people. compare PV's cut-down video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWptWsSzSh4 (2:52) versus this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/james-okeefe-and-post-reporter-exchange-what-really-happened/2017/11/27/668d558e-d3c5-11e7-9ad9-ca0619edfa05_video.html (4:44) watch a Project Veritas "sting" operative get owned by WaPo journalists: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/a-woman-approached-the-post-with-dramatic--and-false--tale-about-roy-moore-sje-appears-to-be-part-of-undercover-sting-operation/2017/11/27/0c2e335a-cfb6-11e7-9d3a-bcbe2af58c3a_story.html watch the founder of Project Vertias avoid answering any questions about that fishing expedition: https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/project-veritas-founder-james-okeefe-avoids-post-reporters-questions/2017/11/27/a664414c-d3af-11e7-9ad9-ca0619edfa05_video.html # fox news: studies Cassino 2012: fox news viewers are more uninformed than those that consume no media at all (2012 poll): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471458654663606298/unknown.png ^ a more recent study found that fox news viewers are pretty typical (for just 3 questions): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471460565827452928/unknown.png # fox news lies: anecdotes fox news thought that antifa was going to start a civil war on 04 November 2017: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641996585810526209/Fox_News_Antifa_Plans_to_Overthrow_President.png fox news edited out booing at two trump events: #####c #####c ##### # # polling # #####o ##### # why polling is hard #####o # expensive Kennedy and Hartig 2019: response rates to Pew's telephone surveys have declined from 36% in 1996 to 6% in 2019: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987215075582550036/unknown.png Guterbock Benson Lavrakas 2018: the average cost per completed interview among 25 polling organizations was ~$45: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987216732768833536/unknown.png #####c ##### # polls accurate #####o # polls were accurate: statistics national presidential and Congressional polls in the United States are relatively accurate, with a consistent 5-7% error rate over the past 20 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/457540212881489930/unknown.png # polls vs projections polls are not the same as projections: **POLLS** predict **WHAT PROPORTION** of votes X candidate will get --> "Hillary Clinton will get 48% of the popular vote countrywide". **PROJECTIONS** predict **HOW LIKELY** it is that X candidate will win --> "Hillary Clinton has a 3 in 4 chance to win in the 2016 election". In short: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/457580660505444353/unknown.png polls are not the same as projections: # polls were accurate in 2016 polls said that Clinton would receive 48.5% of the vote, Trump 44.9%, and Johnson 5.0%: the Federal Elections Commission says: Clinton received 48.18% of the vote, Trump 46.09%, and Johnson 3.28%: the polls overestimated Clinton by 0.3%, underestimated Trump by 1.2%, and overestimated Johnson by 1.7% (just 3.2% off) rcp: # polls were accurate in 2018 polls said that Democrats would receive 50.7% of the vote and Republicans 42.0% (ratio: 1.207): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556600710062538772/unknown.png Democrats received 53.4% of the vote and Republicans 44.8% (ratio: 1.192, 1.25% off): projections put Democrats at gaining 39 seats in the House and losing 1 in the Senate: Democrats gained 41 seats in the House and lost 2 in the Senate: projections put Democrats at governing 24 states and Republicans at 26: Democrats now govern 23 states and Republicans 27: #####c ##### # unsorted unformatted #####o instant runoff voting (ranked choice voting) has majority support, particularly among the young and Democrats: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556636516575870976/unknown.png most people wouldn't change their minds if presented with scientific evidence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556638290329993216/unknown.png 2/3 of people prefer common sense over science, particularly the old and less-educated: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556641080846843944/unknown.png 1/2 of people think correlation means causation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556644273592860682/knowledge_3-f230c8b2.png most people who think they're well-informed on economics also cannot name a single economist: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556645207991386112/unknown.png Republicans are much more likely to believe that there's a Deep State and the Parkland school shooting was a hoax: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556643267798892554/unknown.png most Republicans don't think the USA has interfered with the democratic elections of another nation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556643691486380043/unknown.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/08/Map_of_US_involvement_in_regime_change_and_election_interference.svg Republicans are more likely to think they're well-informed on economics, less able to name a living economist, and less able to name the 3 branches of government (but equally likely to think correlation == causation): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556647006471192613/unknown.png most people who support a border wall think they could get past one: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556648870956892170/border_wall_3-99f06f8a.png 29% of Trump supporters would vote for him if he murdered a journalist: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556650911473336320/the_truth_3-329b5ca1.png Republicans hate weed because Democrats are having sex: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556647596496519168/sex_5-54aabc5c.png most Democrats who think men and women are equal think that women are better multitaskers and better empathizers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556652320646103043/unknown.png Republicans would rather be dumb and happy than smart and sad: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556657557758803968/dumb_and_happy_2-4ca4614c.png #####c ##### # socialism and social democracy #####o # understanding: americans identify socialism with equality and state ownership Gallup: in 2018 (1949), Americans described socialism as "equal in distribution" by 23% (12%), as "state control of business" by 17% (34%), as "social services free" by 10% (2%), as "modified communism" by 6% (6%), as "talking to people" by 6% (N/A), as "restriction of freedom" by 3% (1%), "liberal government" by 2% (1%), as a "cooperative plan" by 1% (1%), or using negative adjectives only by 6% (2%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/739259796154351747/unknown.png Pew 2019: Americans with a positive view of socialism argue it improves fairness&equality (31%), builds upon capitalism (20%), point to historical successes (6%); Americans with a negative view of socialism argue it undermines work ethic or increases dependence on gov't (19%), point to historical failures (18%), or undermines democracy (17%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/973806197184532490/unknown.png Pew 2019: Americans with a positive view of capitalism argue it promotes individual opportunity (24%) or is essential to America (20%); Americans with a negative view of capitalism argue it unequally benefits a small few (23%), is exploitative/corrupt by nature (20%), or undermines democracy (8%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/973808175000219709/unknown.png Data For Progress 2020: most Americans identify capitalism closer with "freedom to pursue individual interests" than "the economy is controlled by a small group of wealthy individuals"; most Americans identify capitalism closer with "government empowers workers to have a say and provides ... health care, housing, free education" than gov't "has total control over the economy and business": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/973813443343826954/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/973813454773321748/unknown.png # understanding: policies and socialist identity Data For Progress 2020: Americans who support more of 4 social-democratic policies (Medicare For All, expanded UI, paid sick leave, job guarantee) are more likely to support "a form of socialism in the US"; or, socialism correlates with social democracy: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/973812305752100934/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/973812321631735859/unknown.png Data For Progress 2020: likely voters have a +25% opinion of capitalism and -20% opinion of socialism; after being asked the above descriptions, they were significantly (6%) more likely to support "democratic socialism": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/973813409730682880/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/973813428235939880/unknown.png # mixed identities: favoring both socialism and capitalism Gallup 2021: a significant portion of Americans are favorable to both capitalism and socialism; of Dems, 34% like both, 17% like capitalism only, 28% like socialism only, 16% dislike both: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/973804032789463050/unknown.png # specific policies: fairly popular 2018: the "radical left's agenda" (end cash bail, government-produced generic drugs, public job guarantee, public internet) is more popular than the mainstream republican's agenda: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/479147826899582986/unknown.png 2018: a majority of Republicans now support Medicare for All; a majority of Americans support free college: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/484955359069601794/unknown.png 2019: most voters support student loan forgiveness: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640926373271306241/190507_Student-Debt-Poll_fullwidth.png # specific policies: wealth redistribution: trends: no major change 2016: the portion of americans supporting wealth redistribution is basically the same as in 1980: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640926899127713792/silver-bernieyouth-2.png US 1990-2018: just 6% more people oppose a "rich class" in 2018 (58% yes) than in 1990 (62% yes): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974028944930111508/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974028998617235496/unknown.png US 2021: 29% say that billionaires existing is a bad thing; 55% say neither; 15% say good thing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974029937650565120/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974030129938440192/unknown.png US 2019: Americans want to tax billionaires but not eliminate them: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565306167652253736/5c7d9bee260000f903fde43a.png Data For Progress 2019: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974033009500098662/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974034529960468541/unknown.png # general social survey: variables to consider eqwlth helppoor helpnot # support for term socialism: levels by age: higher among the young Gallup 2018: young people today are more positive about socialism than any other age: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640926483782696980/unknown.png Harvard 2016: the American youth support socialism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/440404533294661634/unknown.png Pew 2011: the American youth support socialism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/440405307747729408/unknown.png YouGov 2015: the American youth support socialism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640926681191940106/socialism4-3.png # support for term socialism: trends: gallup [not increasing] US 2010-2021: capitalism from 60% positive to 60% positive, socialism 37% positive to 38% positive: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/973802007934685244/unknown.png # support for term socialism: trends: pew [not increasing] US 2011: socialism 31% positive, 60% negative; capitalism 50% positive, 40% negative https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640927058817450009/12-28-11-11.png US 1990-2012: "the US benefits from having a class of rich people": yes 62% to 63%, no 32% to 34%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640927157211758614/610-1.png # support for term socialism: trends: yougov [slightly increasing] US 2016: very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable: socialism 5%, 24%, 18%, 30%; capitalism 21%, 31%, 18%, 9%; describe self as socialist 9%, as capitalist 27%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640952869826068480/socialism1.png US 2015 October: very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable; socialism 7%, 18%, 15%, 32%; capitalism 20%, 28%, 17%, 11%; describe self as socialist 9%, as capitalist 30%: US 2015 May: very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable; socialism 6%, 20%, 19%, 32%; capitalism 24%, 28%, 17%, 9% # support for term socialism: levels: other pollsters American Culture and Faith 2017: 37% prefer socialism to capitalism Reason-Rupe 2014: of US millenials, 52% capitalism better system, 42% socialism better system; 64% free market economy better system, 32% economy managed by government better system: report: toplines: Victims of Communism 2017 October: prefer to live in country that is X: 59% capitalist, 34% socialist, 4% fascist, 3% communist #####c ##### # perceptions of crime #####o # perceptions the public consistently believes that crime is going up even when it's not: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640928233348661295/FT_16.png the public consistently believes that crime is going up even when it's not: #####c ##### # generation z #####o # racism declining 2019 HarrisX poll: 62% of white respondents believe that "whites are discriminated against in America to any extent"; just 31% of Gen Z believe this: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/573676285100818432/unknown.png 2018 Pew Poll: younger Republicans are much more likely (2x) to say that "blacks are treated less fairly than whites": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640927629251313674/PSDT_1.png 2017 PPRI poll: favorable views of Trump: 35% white young people, 46% white people; white people experience discrimination as serious as discrimination against other groups: 36% white young people, 55% white people # good polls 2019 Pew poll: Gen Z is less racist, more leftist, and more trans-accepting: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/617790014301929522/unknown.png 2018 National Election Pool (NEP) exit polls: 18-24 year-olds voted heavily for Democrats: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/630070967355310103/unknown.png 2017 PPRI poll: Gen Z voted 59.5% Clinton, 28.3% Trump, 12% other. Gen Z has net favorability of -35 for the Republican Party, +17 Democratic Party, -44 US-Mexico border wall, -26 Muslim ban, +50 gay marriage, +31 legal marijuana, -22 birth-gender bathrooms, and -44 making abortion. 2016 Populus poll: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/497963039224496128/unknown.png USA: 90% strongly agree or agree that men and women should be treated equally, 83% that transgender people should have the same rights as non-transgender people, 63% that safe abortion should be available legally to women that need it, 71% that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry 2016 UCLA college freshmen survey: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/497979093367914507/unknown.png 2016 National Election Pool (NEP) exit polls: 18-29 year-olds voted heavily for Clinton and for Democrats: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/630070440114651194/unknown.png 2016 CCES survey: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/498263499894423562/unknown.png 2015 CGK poll: 33% GenZ vs 39% Millenials vs 29% other more access after the Affordable Care Act; 33% GenZ vs 39% Millenials vs 43% other think minorities have equal access for success in business; 54% GenZ vs 60% millenial vs 69% other think illegal immigration is a problem in the US 2014 Northwestern University poll: total agree: 64% big corporations and banks control too much in American society, 61% the gap between rich and poor Americans is harmful to my generation, 73% it's better for America to be a place with people of many races and languages rather than a country that is less diverse, 53% college should be free for everybody, 73% everyone should have the right to marry regardless of sexual orientation, 74% transgender people should have equal rights, 64% healthcare should be free for everyone, 55% everyone should have a right to become a US citizen regardless of where they were born and how they came to the country # shitty poll from the gild: The Gild (consultancy company) poll was not a representative sample of Generation Z -- it was an online poll that anyone could participate in (including you, if only the page didn't 404 nowadays): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/630088949955821568/gildbad.png # shitty HHM book survey 2016 Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (book company) survey: 47% Clinton, 41% Trump, 12% other # shitty poll from mycollegeoptions-hispanic heritage foundation: the fall 2016 poll found 32% supported Trump, 22% Clinton: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/630067328477822985/unknown.png yet the spring 2016 poll found 30% supported Sanders, 12% Clinton, 18% Trump, 8% Cruz, 7% Rubio, 6% Carson; 43% support Democrats, 40% Republicans: and the poll itself was a merely distributed to teachers, not students -- making it very unlikely to be representative of the nation as a whole: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/630084018326470657/unknown.png #####c ##### # qanon #####o PRRI 2022: one in four Republicans completely or mostly agreed with the beliefs of Qanon, which include the belief in a global cabal of Satanists who abuse children: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1135287268572135506/image.png """Across the year, one in four Republicans (25%), compared to 14% of independents (14%) and 9% of Democrats identify as QAnon believers. Nearly half of Republicans (47%) who most trust far-right news outlets like One America News Network or Newsmax are QAnon believers, along with one-quarter of Republicans who most trust Fox News (26%) or do not trust TV news (26%). Fewer (18%) of Republicans who most trust mainstream media outlets like CNN, MSNBC, public television, or broadcast news are QAnon believers.""""""To attempt to understand both the scope and the makeup of the QAnon movement, PRRI fielded a set of three questions in four different surveys over the course of 2021, measuring agreement or disagreement (completely agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, or completely disagree) with foundational QAnon beliefs: [1] The government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex-trafficking operation. [2] There is a storm coming soon that will sweep away the elites in power and restore the rightful leaders. [3] Because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.""" #####c #####c ##### # # persuasion # #####o ##### # persuasion: basically everything works #####o # summary The studies below show that lots of specific methods work. In my opinion, the correct synthesis of these results is that basically *all* methods of persuasion work. While some may work better than others, and may work better on different people, evidence works, logic works, debate works, empathy works, humor works. # methods: logos, ridicule, empathy: all work Orosz et al 2016: ridicule & humor (making fun of inconsistencies and of believers in the conspiracy) and logical breakdown (providing stats and explaining logical failures) are equally effective at reducing belief in a Jewish superconspiracy, though the effect size is not large (~3 points on an 88-point scale (3.4pp): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/540432297199927297/fpsyg-07-01525-g001.png #####c ##### # persuasion: deep canvassing works #####o # methods: deep canvassing: compassion works Kalla and Broockman 2016: deep canvassing (having a ~10 minute conversation encouraging the person to consider a trans person's perspective) increased tolerance of transgender people (~.3 SD) and support for a gender nondiscrimination law (~.5 points on -3 to +3 scale); these effects persisted and strengthened after 3 months, and were robust to a fake negative ad against the law: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/801832782732984350/unknown.png Defining “transgender” in the item wording revealed that placebo subjects were less supportive of protecting this group (P < 0.05, one-tailed). Next, all subjects were less supportive after viewing an opposing ad, but the effect of the conversations endured (P < 0.05, one-tailed). However, the ads’ impact dissipated, whereas the conversations’ effect endured (P < 0.05, one-tailed). Kalla and Broockman 2020: conversations that used both {convincing arguments and compassion} durably reduced anti-immigration sentiment and transphobia; conversations that used only {convincing arguments} had insignificant effects; this was found in face-to-face, video, and phone interventions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895137880199016508/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895125663898566676/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895126146545496124/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895126906058469427/unknown.png #####c ##### # persuasion: evidence works #####o # general evidence: evidence changes minds and there's no backfire effect Wood et al 2018: there is no evidence for a consistent "backfire effect"; telling people facts generally changes their minds; among 10100 adults, the effect of factual correction was ~1/3 as large as the effect of ideology on stated belief: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/716789700517691592/unknown.png """The present paper presents results from five experiments in which we enrolled more than 10,100 subjects and tested 52 issues of potential backfire. Across all experiments, we found no corrections capable of triggering backfire, despite testing precisely the kinds of polarized issues where backfire should be expected. Evidence of factual backfire is far more tenuous than prior research suggests.""" ^ list of factual correction: # specific evidence: misinformation isn't stronger, evidence still works Schmid and Betsch 2019: experimental study: among 1661 adults, topic rebuttal (oppose misinformation with facts) and technique rebuttal (refute the methods that science deniers use to mislead their audience) substantially and significantly reduced the influence of science deniers (by about 1/3 of a standard deviation), especially among individuals who vulnerable to antiscience beliefs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017237734185762816/unknown.png # specific evidence: there's no major partisan cue effect, evidence still works Tappin 2021: against "partisan motivated reasoning": among 5071 adults, evidence changed minds in a sample of 24 policy issues; no significant difference between "evidence + contrary party leader cue" (purple) vs "evidence alone" (black): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895128816383582238/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895135169621672017/FA-ygFjVkAohiOg.png Altogether, our design incorporates 48 unique arguments and evidence (information) treatments, and we recruit a total of 5,071 American adults corresponding to 25,181 observations. The experiment design is as follows. # contrary study: mmr-autism link Nyhan et al 2014: after factual correction, people who reported least favorable to vaccines were actually 20pp less likely to report being "very likely" to give the MMR vaccine to another child, if they had one: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1019404527344042014/unknown.png #####c ##### # delivery method: debate is an effective educational tool #####o # debate: excellent and nuanced video by Jangles Sciencelad Jangles Sciencelad: "In Defense of Debate": overviews some of the major strengths and weakness of debate as a propagandistic/ # strength of debate: educational debate achieves deep knowledge Omelicheva and Avdeyeva 2008: among 60 undergrads, debate achieved higher deep knowing in students: compared to lectures, undergrad students who observed debates had insignificantly lower knowledge (recollection of fact) and significantly higher comprehension (ability to explain fact), application (applying concept to unrelated situation), and evaluation (using concept to judge reality): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941140160211464252/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016957998553382912/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016958325683925002/unknown.png n=60 undergrads """The tests demonstrated that in our classes students acquired better comprehension, application, and critical evaluation skills when a controversial topic was taught in the debate format. With regard to basic knowledge, lectures better facilitated students’ memorization, recall, and recognition of information, however, this finding was only significant at the .10 level.""" # strength of debate: debate encourages better critical thinking [stronger evidence] Colbert 1987: non-experimental evidence: among 248 undergrads, measured two weeks before and two weeks after inter-collegiate competitive debate began, debaters saw significantly more positive changes in critical thinking skills compared to nondebaters: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017219017926258699/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017219769650384956/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017220641755238410/unknown.png Shinn 1995: todo reread xxx: after controlling for intelligence, high school students who engaged in two years of competitive debating exhibited higher levels of critical thinking than a comparison group of nondebaters: [Effects of high school debating on critical thinking ability. Unpublished master's thesis. University of Washington, Seattle.] Bowie 2009: todo reread xxx: """This research empirically assessed the learning outcomes of structured debates in an undergraduate social welfare policy course. The longitudinal mixed-method study represents the only one in the literature on social policy debates in undergraduate social work education. For the five cohorts of students surveyed, the Policy Debate Rating Scale assessed learning outcomes on cognitive, behavioral/affective, and comparative perspective dimensions. The results showed strong evidence of higher level learning and supports the use of active learning to promote critical thinking, public speaking, and policy practice skills among social workers. Implications for future policy practice such as the need for more instruction on dialectics, differential perspectives, and improved designs for future research are discussed.""" # strength of debate: debate encourages better critical thinking [weaker evidence] Kennedy 2009: among 87 undergraduates: among debate participants, debate contributed to their understanding of the subject "a lot" for 83% and "some" for 17%; among debate observers, "a lot" for 44%, "some" for 48%, and "a little" for 8% https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021692641202688061/unknown.png Mumtaz and Latif 2017: self-report: among 182 female second-year medical students in Saudi Arabia, the vast majority reported that educational debate improved their critical thinking (78%), speaking and presentation skills (71%), and understanding of hearing from diverse viewpoints (80%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017222798105661460/unknown.png # strength of debate: educates viewers and encourage self-education [medium-strength evidence] Keller Whittaker Burke 2001: among 22 undergraduate students, self-rated knowledge increased after both observing traditional lecture and observing debates (this difference was not significant); in contrast, students who participated in a debate rated their knowledge as significantly higher than either other group: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1022251367928180766/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1022251763740454932/unknown.png """Hypothesis 2. Change s in self-reported knowledge associated with observing a d e b a te we re no different than changes in self-r eported knowledge for topics presented through traditional instruction (z=0.03, p=.97). Half of the students ( n =11) reported larger average increases in knowledge on observed debate topics, and the other h alf reported larger average gains on topics covered through traditional instruction . Hypothesis 3. Increases in knowledge ratings associated with debating a specific topic were significantly greater than increases in knowledge ratings for topics presented through traditional instruction (z=3.54, p <.001). For the majority of students ( n=17), the gain in reported knowledge on the ir debated topic was greater than their average gain on topics covered in traditional fashion (lower for four stud ents, equal for one student).""" # strength of debate: encourages confidence [medium-strength evidence] Combs and Bourne 1989: among 59 upper-level business students, asked to compared to their perceptions of a standard lecture format, 80% believed debates provided them a better understanding of both sides of the issues; 66% felt they had learned more; confidence in public speaking skills increased following the debates; and students enjoying the debates increased from 57% to 85%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021700157307375656/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021700414112010261/unknown.png Combs and Bourne 1994: extended their initial study to cover a fiveyear period with a combined sample of over 500 students. The results were even stronger in favor of using debates: [unavailable] Helenius et al 2006: among 33 internal medicine residents, a debate on routine breast cancer screening for women in their 40's increased the confidence of residents in discussing the pros and cons of mammography with their patients and confidence that their views are supported by scientific evidence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021668030385758278/unknown.png # strength of debate: critical thinking enables debate victories Chen et al 2022: among 76 sophomore undergrads, educational debate winners demonstrated higher critical thinking (as evaluated by the instructor) than their opponents: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017234353836789790/unknown.png (score == 40 is a win, score == 35 is a tie, score == 30 is a loss) """Results indicated that: (1) averagely speaking, the winning team demonstrated a higher depth of critical thinking, and their number of speeches was relatively more than that of the teams with lower debate scores; (2) debaters’ depth of critical thinking was negatively correlated to their number of speeches; (3) audiences’ depth of critical thinking was not significantly correlated to their number of online posts; (4) debaters’ overall depth of critical thinking was relatively lower than that of audiences.""" # limit of debate: adversarial debate has lower respect, satisfaction, participation, higher hesitation [stronger evidence] McAvoy and McAvoy 2021: among 165 high school students, compared to deliberative small group activity, students in the debate condition reported less respect, more hesitation to speak, less satisfaction, and lower participation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017225482334392350/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017231711127490560/unknown.png # limit of debate: higher confidence [far weaker evidence than above] Kennedy 2009: among 87 undergraduates (88.5% female), the proportion of people who thought they "would consider having their students participate in a debate" increased after observing 5 debates on a topic from 75% to 85%; this suggests that, despite their anxiety, they thought the process was useful on net: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021691114815758346/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021692849919631420/unknown.png Dundes 2001: in one sociology class of 30 students, 1-on-1 debates following preparation of a cited outline increased speaker confidence, as subjectively determined by the one teacher: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021686882133868614/unknown.png # limit of debate: alleged gender exclusivity (see also Mumtaz as counter-example) Tumposky 2004: debate is exclusive to women, who feel much less comfortable in adversarial conversations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941145893304946748/unknown.png """In her study of how males and females communicate, sociolinguist Tannen (1992) found that an adversarial environment is antithetical to the way most females learn and like to interact. She also notes that “most women are more comfortable speaking in private to a small group of people they know well” (1992, 7). Other research suggests that very few women are comfortable with adversarial argument, in or out of classrooms. In an interview study with American college students, researchers found that “the classic dormitory bull session with students assailing their opponents’ logic and attacking their evidence, seems to occur rarely among women” (Belenky et al. 1986, 105).""" McAvoy and McAvoy 2021: among 165 high school students, young women were more likely to report hearing something offensive in small group discussion than debate, and equally likely to report hesitance to speak in both activities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017232010240069682/unknown.png # limit of debate: encourages entrenchment of positions defended Lilly 2012: among 132 undergraduates, most debaters shifted their views toward the position that they were defending: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016962056915791942/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/483810094597931018/unknown.png Kennedy 2009: among 87 undergraduates, most debaters shifted their views toward the position that they were defending: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021689281464508416/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021689584544911370/unknown.png # philosophy education: effective in one RCT, ineffective in one RCT Gorard et al 2015: randomized-control trial (RCT): among 3159 children aged 9-10, receiving philosophy education significantly and substantially improved academic performance or social-emotional learning: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/483857320791769099/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016964359127322676/unknown.png Lord et al 2021: randomized-control trial (RCT): among 3601 children aged 9-10, receiving philosophy education did not significantly improved academic performance or social-emotional learning: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016967181545783306/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016968163096788992/unknown.png #####c ##### # delivery method: infotainment / edutainment / soft news #####o # summary Infotainment: # literature reviews: effects on democracy: probably slightly negative, but not apocalyptic Van Aelst et al 2017: """While a lack of longitudinal and cross-national research in many cases prohibits firm conclusions, rather than showing a wholesale deterioration, the evidence shows a more mixed picture. Thus, on the one hand, the amount of political news and information is increasing; on the other, the share of the total media supply constituting political news and information is decreasing. While in some countries soft and game-framed news is on the rise, in others it is not and there is no evidence of a convergence towards a popularization-related reporting style. While there on the one hand is increasing concentration in the media sector, on the other hand there is no compelling evidence of decreasing diversity. Media environments are becoming more fragmented and polarized, and people tend to prefer attitude-consistent information, but most people at the same time still turn to major news providers and also consume attitude-discrepant information. While there is a growing supply of partisan biased and fake information, there is little evidence of a strongly increasing demand for such information. And while the opportunity structures for finding non-political information have improved, it has also become easier for news junkies to find high-quality news and political information. Based on this, one important conclusion coming out of this review is that the direst warnings are not warranted. All news is not bad. Equally important, however, is that all news is not good either and that many of the concerns have a material foundation. There clearly are some trends with respect to political information environments that do represent a serious challenge for democracy.""" # literature reviews: soft news effects: hard to generalize Marinov 2019: litierature review: sharp distinctions between types of soft news: """It is worth noting, however, that the findings outlined above (and across much of the infotainment research within this approach) are the result of numerous research methods, including content analyses, survey research, controlled media-exposure experiments, and psychological experiments, among others. As such, there are a number of important limitations and methodological uncertainties and incoherence throughout the literature, thus preventing firm, conclusive findings. Moreover, many researchers have begun to show that specific types of infotainment programming (e.g. satire or comedy) impact individuals in different ways and to differing degrees (see Delli Carpini, 2014; Hoffman & Young, 2011), thus further problematizing any coherent generalization of infotainment’s political effects.""" # literature review: typology of effects: four Oprah effects, distinction btwn types Baum Jamison 2011: literature review: draws distinction between day-time (softer, eg Oprah Winfrey) and late-night (harder, eg Jon Stewart) soft news: Soft News and the Four Oprah Effects [1] Attention [2] Knowledge [3] Attitudes [4] Behavior """What has been their effect on the political attention, knowledge, attitudes, and behaviorof citizens? It seems possible that these two genres might have quite distinct effects onquite different groups of consumers, as well as on politicians' strategic behavior. Forinstance, traditional soft news may be of most value to politically inattentive audiencesand politicians seeking to persuade them, while satiric late-night comedy shows may facilitate greater political learning and engagement among relatively sophisticatedsegments of the public.""" # scope over time and space: mixed effects (probably getting softer over time) Reinemann et al 2011: summary of several studies: studies disagree; six studies suggest news is not getting "softer", four suggest it is: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084770772091936789/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084771436398379029/image.png """There have been a number of studies whose results have pointed towards the majority of news becoming softer over time.""" Reinemann et al 2011: summary of two studies: no clear differences across countries, and no clear difference in favor of public media; hard news is not clearly more common in the US than UK or Europe: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084768932952539146/image.png """The study found that across different media types and countries hard news was not significantly lower in the UK and the USA compared to the others, and the differences between commercial TV and public broadcasting in Europe did not seem to be especially large (Curran et al., 2010). In terms of newspapers, the study found that tabloid newspapers did not present as much hard news as elite newspapers do. Contrary to expectation, the study found that the American TV channels actually offer the highest degree of hard news as compared to the other countries.[....] These results include the observation that, unlike Brekken at al. (2010), the US news is overall (both newspapers and television) ‘harder’ than expected. Some similarities between the countries presented here must be critically discussed however. According to this research, US and UK television are similar in their affinity to hard news, even though the UK has a strong PBS and the USA do not.""" # social media effects on political participation: possibly positive Skoric et al 2016: meta-studies: among 22 studies higher usage of social media is *correlated* (not necessarily causative) with higher self-reported political participation and civic participation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084727826030272602/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084727868749250600/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084746993085190194/image.png Social media and citizen engagement: A meta-analytic review # diversity of choice effects on knowledge / turnout among different types of people: mixed Prior 2005: among people interested in the news, access to internet and/or cable increased knowledge about politics and voting turnout; among people disinterested, access decreased both: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084999815181635644/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1085464520673214464/image.png News vs. Entertainment: How Increasing Media Choice Widens Gaps in Political Knowledge and Turnout """REP has little effect on political knowledge for respondents with neither cable nor Internet access. Inamedia environment where you cannot choose between entertainment and news, it does not matter very much if you prefer one or the other. Among those with access to both new media, on the other hand, the difference between highest and lowest REP amounts to a knowledge gain of about 27%. Compared to the modal category—indifference toward the news—new media users who rank news first or second are still 16% more knowledgeable.""""""When speculating about the political implications of new media, pundits and scholars tend to either praise the likely benefits for democracy in the digital age or dwell on the dangers. The optimists claim that the greater availability of political information will lead more people to learn more about politics and increase their involvement in the political process. The pessimists fear that new media will make people apolitical and provide mind-numbing entertainment that keeps citizens from fulfilling their democratic responsibilities. These two predictions are often presented as mutually exclusive. Things will either spiral upwards orspiral downwards; the circle is either virtuous or vicious. The analyses presented here show that both are true. New media do indeed increase political knowledge and involvement in the electoral process among some people, just as the optimists predict. Yet, the evidence supports the pessimists’ scenario as well. Other people take advantage of greater choice and tune out of politics completely. Those with a preference for entertainment, once they gain access to new media, become less knowledgeable about politics and less likely to vote. People’s media content preferences become the key to understanding the political implications of new media.""""""In contrast to the view that politics is simply too difficult and complex to understand, this study shows that motivation, not ability, is the main obstacle that stands between an abundance of political information and a welland evenly informed public.""" # social media effects on political knowledge among different types of people: mixed Castro 2021: traditional news consumers and selective online news consumers show higher objectively measured political knowledge than "news minimalists", "social media for news", and "hyper-consumers of news"; this is correlation, not causation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084761345196572692/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084762641186164786/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084764053085364225/image.png Navigating High-Choice European Political Information Environments: a Comparative Analysis of News User Profiles and Political Knowledge """Overall, the findings suggest that traditional news media—in their offline and online formats—convey a more valuable array of political information and are more successful in providing a general overview of what is going on in politics and society than other news sources. Indeed, our findings suggest that it is more about quality than quantity since traditionalists consume information from a lower number of sources than most news profiles identified in this study. Accordingly, consuming news from a broader range of news outlets, channels, programs, and platforms does not necessarily make for a more informed citizenry, and it may even lead to the opposite. As our analyses show, respondents embedded in the hyperconsumers news profile are less politically knowledgeable than the average news user. In line with previous research (van Erkel and Van Aelst 2020), this may be due to information overloads and a tendency for news snacking over actual news reading. The avalanche of information and constant stream of news stories people are currently exposed to (not least on social media) makes it plausible that individuals using a multitude of sources find it ever harder to retrieve and process information from their available media. Indeed, compared to the other news profiles, hyperconsumers of news use a greater number of online news outlets and social platforms for news.9""" # infotainment effects on cynicism: mixed Jebril Albæk Vreese 2013: among infotainment, a focus on the personal lives of politicians increases cynicism, while a focus on human interest stories decreases cynicism: """Our findings demonstrate that exposure to infotainment has both positive and negative effects on political cynicism depending on the nature of infotainment content and public interest in politics. Specifically, we found that exposure to privatized news generates cynicism among the general public whereas exposure to personalized coverage has the reverse effect, especially among those who are less interested in politics.""" #####c ##### # delivery method: breadtube: efficacy, harassment, etc. #####o # video essays as a form of debate (see also description of Shaun in Lewis Marwick Partin 2021) Maddox and Creech 2021: Contrapoint's strategy keeps "with agonistic debate strategies" (agonistic meaning competive discourse, as opposed to deliberative discourse): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024435146696429578/unknown.png """One profile notes “Contra[Points] may not have all of the answers, but she has one: meet them on their turf and outdo them” (Singal 2017). The profile goes on to say, “Wynn. . .actually engages with the arguments she is disagreeing with, showing why they are wrong rather simply pointing at them and laughing or screaming” (Singal 2017). In keeping with agonistic debate strategies, ContraPoints videos will invoke the extremist viewpoint in question, dismantle it, and avoid dismissing the view as only racist, sexist, or transphobic. In an interview with Vice, Wynn defends her strategies, stating, “From a psychological standpoint, you have to empathetically enter a person’s world; not just why do they think what they think but why do they feel what they feel? Repeat that back to them and you can really gain traction” (Hall and Brownstein 2019). Similarly, a Los Angeles Times profile features praise from one of Wynn’s LeftTube peers: “Natalie speaks their language,” Ellis says. “That’s something a lot of leftists can’t do. They can’t reach these borderline edgelord communities because they don’t speak the language of memes or why these people tend to fall down reactionary alt-right rabbit holes.” (Fleishman 2019) ContraPoints succeeds where others fail.""" Maddox and Creech 2021: "ContraPoints’ approach works because it engages with epistemological assumptions" rather than "shaming people for holding those assumptions": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024442199049506847/unknown.png """It is the implicit appeal of Wynn’s style that is often cited as the core to her “deradicalizing” strategy (CBC Radio 2019; Loewinger 2019). In a 2019 episode of National Public Radio’s “On the Media,” hosts interviewed one young man who attributed his turn away from extreme right-wing content to ContraPoints: It started off as hate watching and then it became, you know, “Mmm, I don’t hate her. She’s funny.” And once you get rid of that hate you can start to actually listen to what she’s saying. . . I couldn’t tell you what it is about them, but you do not feel like you are being attacked. That’s when I started to deradicalize, so to speak.” (Loewinger 2019). As the quotation suggests, ContraPoints’ approach works because it engages with epistemological assumptions, in lieu of shaming people for holding those assumptions. Once again citing the LA Times interview with LeftTuber Lindsay Ellis, Jeffrey Fleishman writes, “[Ellis] was impressed that Wynn realized that shaming people might feel righteous but doesn’t change minds, especially if you’re trying to alter the thinking of right-wing and other extremist groups” (Fleishman 2019). Similarly, Vice reports, “Wynn acknowledges that to deradicalize someone you have to engage with their ideas, but this method isn’t exactly popular” (Hall and Brownstein 2019) and CBC Radio notes that ContraPoints “debunk[s] the rationales behind those views, but also convey[s] in her videos that they weren’t monsters. They were merely lost” (CBC Radio 2019). The journalistic discourse surrounding ContraPoints sets the terms for understanding deradicalization as a valuable end, positioning Wynn’s dialogic method as an ideal means. This is one reason why ContraPoints’ work has been described as “the beginnings of a blueprint for countering the rise of right-wing extremist and indoctrination content on the video-sharing site” (Singal 2017). With this is mind, we now turn to unpacking that blueprint.""" Maddox and Creech 2021: Contrapoints "articulates a critical logic that her own audiences can choose to take as their own by detailing logical gaps and flaws in evidence and argumentation, a strategy key to agonistic debate": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024443975383392276/unknown.png """Deconstructing the premise grants her visibility by making the content legible within YouTube’s recommendation algorithm because it semantically aligns ContraPoints’ videos with a mass of similarly named reactionary content. Furthermore, by deconstructing premises, such as “are traps gay?,” she does not simply answer it with a “yes” or “no.” She shows how the issues surrounding the premise are complex, but also reflective of an underlying logic connected to power. Wynn articulates a critical logic that her own audiences can choose to take as their own by detailing logical gaps and flaws in evidence and argumentation, a strategy key to agonistic debate. In ContraPoints videos, causes and contexts are key. It is not just enough to discuss issues but to interrogate:""" # effective content formats Maddox and Creech 2021: Contrapoint's videos attempt to insert themselves into rightist audiences and recommendations by choosing clickbait-type titles with unclear ideological backing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024442709685047407/unknown.png # harassment: causes of harassment from rightist videos to leftist videos Lewis Marwick Partin 2021: 13 right-wing or anti-SJW response videos led to substantial harassment, as guaged by the study authors; they followed a "blueprint of harassment", where creators: [1] "addressed the audience directly" [2] "implicate their audiences by positioning them as targets" of critique by the video creator, which "directs [their] followers to see it as a personal attack" [3] use "offensive language" [4] paint their target as "irrational" and "violating norms shared between creator and audience", which "can serve as justifications for networked harassment" [5] "audience is thus encouraged to defend themselves": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024407885825982554/unknown.png """This blueprint for harassment is echoed in the majority of videos in our corpus. By mixing ad hominem attacks with misrepresentation and criticism of left-wing beliefs, creators stoke moral outrage in their networked audience by suggesting the vlogger is attacking or harming White people, men, children, or America, and provide a list of talking points that can be repeated when harassing a target. Thus, harassment is implicitly justified as righting a moral wrong, reinforcing the norms of the networked audience. Taken together, we argue that these phenomena—the staging of a faux “rational” debate while simultaneously invoking moral outrage among like-minded viewers — offers conditions for networked harassment even when it is not called for or is even repudiated by creators.""" Lewis Marwick Partin 2021: 2 left-wing response videos (by Shaun and by Hbomberguy, respectively) did not lead to substantial harassment; authors argue that this results from staying "more faithful to the faux-staged debate format than the right-wing videos" (ie, citing "archival and scholarly sources, explaining historical events"); this results in comments that "adhere to the debate style employed by Shaun" and are "solemn and factual": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024404975620722799/unknown.png # parasociality: importance of engagement/entertainment in getting eyeballs Grude 2021: YouTube politics and "streaming" is more engaging/entertaining, which better competes for its viewers time/attention: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024408785990733895/unknown.png """Aksakal writes that taking the learners needs into account is important if the goal is to improve learning (2015, p. 1237). Politics on YouTube seem to do this in a way that traditional media fails to do. What’s more, according to Van Zoonen (2005, p. 11) there is no support for the accusation that new media and what she refers to as infotainment has made citizens less informed and more apathetic. Citizen today live in a highly mediated society, and politics has to compete for people’s time and attention (Ibid, p. 2-3.)""" Grude 2021: YouTube politics often combines pop culture and multiple interests/hobbies, which means it competes less with other audiovisual entertainment for limited viewer time/attention: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024410687256150207/unknown.png """Though politicians often try to make themselves more likeable by acting more like celebrities performing politics (Street, 2019, p. 4), political YouTubers, especially the Casual YouTubers, were more entertaining for my informants because of a few key factors: their personalities were considered more enjoyable, they build closer bonds with the viewers and come across as “just normal people,” and the political content they cover is more entertaining than that of traditional politicians. When it came to the political content being more enjoyable, there were two major reasons why: the perception that politics on YouTube is more inclusive of different ideas and allows for more voices to be heard, and that politics on YouTube covers cultural politics, which was perceived to be internationally important. Political YouTubers also incorporate pop culture into their own content and use it to promote their own ideas and political stances. That way they are not competing as much for viewers time with other types of audio-visual entertainment, because their content can be entertaining on its own. Political YouTubers also have a massive advantage over traditional politicians when it comes to coming across as a “regular person.” What makes someone a “regular person” is different depending on context, but it is contrasted by what people think of as a “politician,” to the point where politicians now are hesitant to label themselves as politicians (Van Zoonen, 2005, p. 5). Instead, they try to find a balance between a life as a serious politician and as a unique individual (Ibid, p. 69). Top US politicians seem to have recognized that YouTube can be a way to access more people and showcase themselves as relevant and in touch with contemporary culture; both Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ihlan Omar of the Democratic Party have played Among Us, a popular whodunit-style video game, with several of the political YouTubers mentioned in this paper on a livestream. It might be a good idea for politicians to get friendly with those YouTubers, too: it was clear from my interviews that my informants had a great deal more trust towards the YouTubers they followed than actual politicians, showing the most distrust towards politicians and political YouTubers they disagreed with politically.""" Uldam 2013: #####c ##### # delivery methods: other effective methods #####o # delivery: op-eds Coppock et al 2021 (all three authors are libertarians): libertarian op-eds changed individual's minds by ~.5-1 points on a 7-point scale (if linear, ~7-14%) about specific issues; about 2/3 of this effect persists after 1 month: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809891950219231272/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809892661757870140/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/959340400605294612/unknown.png """Under the rosiest scenario, an op-ed costs $5,000 to produce, reaches 400,000 people, and changes the mind of 20% of them. Plugging these values into Equation (1), we obtain that the cost per mind changed is a mere 6 cents. Under a more conservative set of assumptions, an op-ed costs 10 times as much ($50,000), reaches half as many people (200,000), and changes half as many minds (10%). The resulting cost per mind changed would work out to $2.50.""" ^ supplementary material for above, including op-eds: # delivery: tv news Martin and Yurukoglu 2017: data from channel number randomization suggests that Fox News shifts voting patterns rightward: Without Fox News, .46% fewer people would've voted Republican in 2000, 3.59% in 2004, and 6.35% in 2008: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1048343438334119936/image.png # delivery: forum posts more persuasive posts on /r/ChangeMyView tend to be shorter, earlier in the thread, from higher social capital (higher karma) users, and use more argumentative sentences: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/540433785146048532/unknown.png #####c ##### # cancel culture / call-out culture #####o # against call-out culture as it exists brown 2020: knee-jerk call-outs fail because : https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072413788629901322/image.png """Knee-jerk call outs say: those who cause harm or mess up or disagree with us cannot change and cannot belong. They must be eradicated. The bad things in the world cannot change, we must disappear the bad until there is only good left. But one layer under that, what I hear is: We cannot change. We do not believe we can create compelling pathways from being harm doers to being healed, to growing. We do not believe we can hold the complexity of a gray situation. We do not believe in our own complexity. We do not believe we can navigate conflict and struggle in principled ways. We can only handle binary thinking: good/bad, innocent/guilty, angel/abuser, black/white, etc. [....] When we engage in knee-jerk call outs as a conflict-resolution device, or issue instant consequences with no process, we become a cancer unto ourselves, unto movements and communities. We become the toxicity we long to heal.""" brown 2020: current call-out culture doesn't serve leftist movements' needs of practicing "what we are healing towards"; we are "not already beyond harm" but should be "accountable for doing our individual ... work to end harm": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072413808225681408/image.png """The kind of call outs we are currently engaging in do not necessarily think about movements’ needs as a whole. Movements need to grow and deepen. We need to “transform ourselves to transform the world,” to “be transformed in the service of the work.”10 Movements need to become the practice ground for what we are healing towards, co-creating. Movements are responsible for embodying what we are inviting our people into. We need the people within our movements, all socialized into and by unjust systems, to be on liberation paths. Not already free, but practicing freedom every day. Not already beyond harm, but accountable for doing our individual and internal work to end harm and engage in generative conflict, which includes actively working to gain awareness of the ways we can and have harmed each other, where we have significant political differences, and where we can end cycles of harm and unprincipled struggle in ourselves and our communities.""" # toward growth culture brown 2020: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072414640862134282/image.png """I want us to look at each other with the eyes of interdependence, such that when someone causes harm, we find the gentle parent inside of us who can use a voice of accountability, while also bringing curiosity—“Why did you cause harm? Do you know? Do you know other options? Apologize.” That we can set boundaries that don’t require the disappearance of other survivors. That we can act towards accountability with the touch of love. That when someone falls behind, we can use a parent’s voice of discipline, while also picking them up and carrying them for a while if needed. [....] I want our movement to feel like a vibrant, accountable space where causing harm does not mean you are excluded immediately and eternally from healing, justice, community, or belonging. I want us to grow lots and lots of skill at holding the processes by which we mend the wounds in our communities and ourselves. I want satisfying consequences that actually end cycles of harm, generate safety, and deepen movement. [....] I want us to ask who benefits from our hopelessness, and to deny our oppressors the satisfaction of getting to see our pain. I want them to wonder how we foment such consistent and deep solidarity and unlearning. I want our infiltrators to be astounded into their own transformations, having failed to tear us apart. I want us to acknowledge that the supremacy and hopelessness and harm and conflict are everywhere, and make moves that truly allow us to heal into wholeness. Because against all odds in space and time? We. Are. Winning.""" # on the psychology of call-out culture brown 2020: believing survivors and tactical use of power vs enjoying the feeding frenzy and enjoying punishment: """My third unthinkable thought—why does it feel like we are committed to punishment, and enjoying it? Why do our movements more and more often feel like we are moving with sharp teeth against ourselves? And what is at stake because of that pattern, that feeling? Why does it feel like someone pointing at someone else and saying: “that person is harmful!,” and with no questions or process or time or breath, we are collectively punishing them, tearing them, and anyone protecting them, to shreds? Sometimes we even do it with the language of transformative justice: claiming that we are going to give them room to grow. They need to disappear completely to be accountable. We are publicly shaming them so that they will learn to be better. Underneath this logic I hear: we are good and we are getting rid of the “bad” people in our community or movement. We are affirming our rightness and power. Which isn’t to say that some of the accused aren’t raging white supremacists in movement clothing. Or abusers who have slipped through the fingers of accountability. Or shady in some other way. Which isn’t to say that a public accounting of harm, and consequences, isn’t necessarily the correct move. In cases of rape, sexual assault, intimate partner violence, and abuse, the callout can be the only move that stops the immediate harm without engaging the state. Shaming behaviors of abuse in a culture where they have been normalized is, and has been, a necessary survival technology. Which isn’t to say we don’t believe survivors. Because we must. In fact, part of what inspired this piece is making room for survivors to be heard. But how do we believe survivors and still be abolitionist? And still practice transformative justice? To start with, I have been trying to discern when a call out feels powerful, like the necessary move, versus when it feels like a feeding frenzy. The first and biggest thing is that call outs never feel powerful to me as a move to resolve conflict, especially when that conflict is unveiled without the consent of both or all parties in the dispute. Call outs don’t work for addressing misunderstandings, issuing critiques, or resolving contradiction. Call outs feel most powerful when they are used with their tactical intention—for those with less positional, political, economic, or other power to demand accountability to stop harm or abuse.""" brown 2020: on public apologies and how it often takes time both to understand that we've been harmed and to understand how we've harmed others: """A moment on this: one of the main demands in call outs is for a public apology. To expect a coherent authentic apology from someone who has been forcibly removed from power or credibility feels like a set up. Usually they issue some PR-sounding thing that works like blood in the water, escalating the feeding frenzy instead of satisfying our hunger for justice. We’ve all seen the convoluted, denial-accountability-nonapology message from accused harm doers, especially when physical or sexual harm is involved. Sometimes they are claiming innocence, sometimes they are admitting to some harm, rarely at the level of the accusation. Sometimes they say they tried to have a process but it didn’t work, or they were denied. Who knows what they mean by process, who knows if the accuser was ready for a process, who knows what actually happened between them, the relational context of the instance or pattern of harm? Who knows? The truth about sexual assault and rape and patriarchy and white supremacy and other abuses of power is that we are swimming in them, in a society that has long normalized them, and that they often play out intimately. The truth is, sometimes it takes a long time for us to realize the harm that has happened to us. And longer to realize we have caused harm to others. The truth is, it isn’t unusual to only realize harm happened in hindsight, with more perspective and politicization. But there’s more truth, too. The additional truth is, right now, in the frantic pause of pandemic, we have the time. The additional truth is, even though we want to help the survivor, we love obsessing over and punishing “villains.” We end up putting more of our collective attention on punishing those accused of causing harm than supporting and centering the healing of survivors, and/or building pathways for those who are in cycles of causing harm to change.""" #####c ##### # background: standpoint epistemology / standpoint theory good #####o # cognitive biases favor the powerful Brien and Crandall 2005: students were not more likely to trust a high-status doctor than low-status nurse (n=51 white undergrad students), students were more likely to distrust someone perceived as self-interested and someone in the outgroup (n=130 undergrad students), and students were more likely to trust someone defending the status quo (n=92): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941150811218645012/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941151263368826961/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941152327103045733/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941152463522758696/unknown.png #####c ##### # background: shame has mixed efficacy #####o # shame and defensiveness in anti-racism Lopez 2016: Beatty 2022: defensiveness hurts anti-racist behavior after becoming aware of bias: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1064679123970170911/image.png """Many White Americans are motivated to be anti-racist but become defensive when confronted with their involvement in perpetuating racism (Ford et al., 2022; Howell et al., 2017). This defensiveness stems from the psychological need to present oneself in a way that is acceptable to the self (Cramer, 1998; Swann Jr., 2012). For individuals who hold egalitarian values and are motivated to be racially unbiased, confrontations with how they perpetuate racism feel threatening. These confrontations challenge their self-presentation goals and provoke defensiveness (Ford et al., 2022). This defensive response can subvert anti-racist efforts by shifting attention from the problem at hand, mitigating racism towards the stigmatized person, to managing the emotional reactivity of the person expressing racism (Ford et al., 2022). As defensive reactions to bias confrontation are counterproductive for addressing racial inequity, approaches are needed to reduce defensive responses to being confronted with bias so that people pursue anti-racist action instead. Personal and prevalent threatening information, like increased bias awareness, amplifies defensive responses (Good & Abraham, 2007; Pohan & Mathison, 1998). Recent evidence suggests that interventions can mitigate defensive responses through education (Vitriol & Moskowitz, 2021). Before individuals received feedback that they were biased, researchers told individuals that bias is common and controllable. This brief educational intervention successfully reduced defensiveness about accusations of bias but had limited impacts on general awareness about bias and unknown impacts on other bias-related beliefs and motivations.""" Beatty 2022: this study in particular tried to inform people that bias is common and controllable and then showed a role model handling their emotions after doing something racist and being informed of it: ^ Ford Green Gross 2022: citation for above: ^ potentially useful study, but full text not available: Mikay 2022: Feeling Guilty: Testing the Effectiveness of Guilt and Shame Appeals in Motivating Trans-Inclusive Behavioral Change Among College Students: #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # criminal justice system [axis one] # # #####o ##### # # policing # #####o ##### # summary #####o # concepts Left Realism: crime hurts the poor the most: deprivation, despair -> crime; crime -> deprivation, despair: Overpoliced but Underprotected: too much policing of small crimes, too little crime prevention overall #####c ##### # todo #####o # scrape for sources https://mobile.twitter.com/samswey/status/1180655779180879872 https://www.joincampaignzero.org/research https://8cantwait.org/ https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jun/09/the-counted-police-killings-us-vs-other-countries # wandering officers wandering officers https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/faculty_scholarship/4004/ # recidivism meta-study on reducing recidivism: # conservative video possibly https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8TjbeaKIb0 # spending https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/07/over-past-60-years-more-spending-police-hasnt-necessarily-meant-less-crime/ # todo https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/actual-police-defunding/comments#comment-825177 https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/06/65309/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2019/02/13/marshall-project-more-cops-dont-mean-less-crime-experts-say/2818056002/ Tella 2004: Ba 2021: https://lawandcrime.com/george-floyd-death/kamala-harris-dismisses-notion-that-hiring-more-cops-results-in-safer-communities-heres-what-the-studies-say/ https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/police-and-crime-rates-in-canada.pdf #####c ##### # police funding and defund the police #####o # police officers over time in 1997, the US had 242 police officers for every 100,000 residents; in 2016, 217: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/812034486140141618/unknown.png # defund the police: LAPD meme bad bad meme about LAPD funding: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/751265038714535966/EZpRWAkU8AAWrzF.png Los Angeles budget: 10.53 billion overall, 1.86 billion (17.7%) directly for police: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/751266319055454690/unknown.png graphical representation: 10.5 billion overall, ~3 billion for police in general: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/812031395672752128/90.png ^ trend over time: upward: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/812038243008249856/872af818fbf2066eb756e9755e46e86984d85ab9.png # polling https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/751265342436802620/defunding20the20police.png #####c ##### # police diversity and police brutality #####o Ba 2021: The role of officer race and gender in police-civilian interactions in Chicago: #####c ##### # violent crime and police brutality / police killings #####o # international comparisons PPI 2020: police in the USA kill Americans at much higher rates than other high-income countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862847007001280552/policekillings_rates.png # national correlational studies: violent crime vs police killings Mapping Police Violence 2020: police killings (red) have no clear correlation with violent crime rates (blue): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862846969835814972/6eeebab7684f656d9d7f3fc005c5f43bbd98d575_original.png # international correlational studies: homicides vs police killings over countries Zivari 2020: homicides per capita and police killings per capita strongly correlate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864696290980921354/z7qxx933jf251.png #####c ##### # more cops less crime / overpoliced and underprotected: true but complicated #####o # summary More cops means less violent crime -- but at significant public expense, especially given the egregious underfunding of US welfare system. Re-allocation of cop time to *street presence* (or replaced/supplemented by community volunteers) may have similar effects. # todo https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/06/65309/ # todo other ways to reduce violence than cops https://academicworks.cuny.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1370&context=jj_pubs # other solutions scrape In a recent survey of criminal justice experts, about two-thirds agreed that increasing police budgets would improve public safety. But many more of them — 85 percent — said that increasing spending on housing, health and education would do so. local example of crime defusing and labor opportunities fighting crime: # more cops less murder: causal evidence: chalfin [todo xxx] Chalfin et al 2020 preprint: brief list of studies supporting alternatives to policing, including several "social service strategies": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086689892291063828/image.png """Of course, reducing funding for police could allow increased funding for other alternatives. Indeed an array of high-quality research suggests that crime can, in certain contexts, be reduced through methods other than policing or its by-product, incarceration. Among the many alternatives to police for which there is promising evidence are placebased crime control strategies such as increasing the availability of trees and green space (Branas et al., 2011), restoring vacant lots (Branas et al., 2016, 2018; Moyer et al., 2019), public-private partnerships (Cook and MacDonald, 2011), street lighting (Doleac and Sanders, 2015; Chalfin et al., 2019), and reducing physical disorder (Sampson and Raudenbush, 2001; Keizer et al., 2008). There is also evidence that social service-based strategies such as summer jobs for disadvantaged youth (Heller, 2014; Gelber et al., 2016; Davis and Heller, 2017), cognitive behavioral therapy (Blattman et al., 2017; Heller et al., 2017), mental health treatment (Deza et al., 2020) and local non-profits more generally (Sharkey et al., 2017) can have important crime-reducing effects. While social service terventions are often difficult to scale (Mofiitt, 2006; Ludwig et al., 2011), the increasing number of studies which show that there are ways to reduce crime outside the deterrence channels of the traditional model of Becker (1968) is encouraging.""" Chalfin et al 2020 preprint: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086691681451118695/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086690593054408794/image.png """While we find that investments in law enforcement save Black lives, the number of averted homicides (1 per 10-17 officers hired) is modest and might even be zero in cities with large Black populations. [....] While information on the use of force by police officers is not collected nationally, if we use the estimate in Weisburst (2019a)–that 2.7 percent of arrests lead to an incident in which force was used by a police officer–then hiring one additional police officer would yield between 3 and 6 use of force incidents per life saved through homicide abatement.""" Chalfin et al 2020 preprint: """Since larger police forces lead to reductions in index crimes, the decline in index crime arrests that we observe suggests that larger police forces reduce serious crime primarily through deterrence rather than by arresting and incapacitating additional offenders.""" Chalfin et al 2020 preprint: """At the same time, our findings on low-level arrests highlight the potential benefits of changing the priorities of law enforcement. This could occur through changes in policy like the decriminalization of drug possession or via efforts to recruit a larger number of Black or female police officers (Donohue III and Levitt, 2001; McCrary, 2007; West, 2018; Miller and Segal, 2019; Harvey and Mattia, 2019; Ba and Rivera, 2020; Linos and Riesch, 2020). Moreover, there is growing evidence to support the efficacy of de-escalation training (Engel et al., 2020) and procedural justice training (Owens et al., 2018; Nagin and Telep, 2020; Wood et al., 2020), federal oversight of police agencies (Powell et al., 2017; Goh, 2020), and the use of and training in non-lethal weapons (MacDonald et al., 2009; Sousa et al., 2010). There is likewise support for the idea that reforms to police unions may be effective (Dharmapala et al., 2019) especially if unions can be incentivized to “self-regulate,” which could take the form of transferring the burden of liability insurance from municipalities to unions (Ramirez et al., 2018; Ba and Rivera, 2019). Finally, police officers tend to be highly responsive to managerial directives (Mummolo, 2018), which suggests that procedural reforms could meaningfully alter officer behavior even holding police force size fixed.""" # literature review: early studies failed to demonstrate causality & suffered from endogeneity of crime and police hiring Levitt 1997: early studies were not causal, and police hiring and crime are likely endogenous -- biasing results toward a positive correlation between hiring and crime: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974845834854293534/unknown.png # causal studies: less crime in general: levitt 1997 (elections as IV) and followup (firefighters and municipal workers as IV) Levitt 1997: instrumental variable: police are more likely to be hired during election years (quasi-random), and each 1% increase causes 1.98% less murder, 0.79% less robbery per person (logged): 1995 preprint: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974909859231322162/unknown.png """The mean percentage change in sworn police officers for the cities in the sample is 2.1 percent in gubernatorial election years, 2.0 percent in mayoral election years, and 0.0 percent in nonelection years. That relationship persists after controlling for a variety of demographic, socioeconomic, and economic factors.""" McCrary 2002: the above paper has programming and classification errors, which Levitt 2002 admits, which underestimated variability in crime, and which thus result in the causal evidence of elections on pooled crime to shrink to insignificance for all crimes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974911678615535636/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974911839752294420/unknown.png Levitt 2002: using a new instrument, municipal workers and firefighters, weaker but similar results as Levit 1997 are obtained: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974912450484912179/unknown.png # causal studies: less crime in general: natural experiments from the Terror Alert Level Klick 2005: differences in differences: causal evidence from changes in the Terror Alert Level (and changes in police presence in DC) suggest that higher officer presence reduces crime: This suggests the possibility of switching to a formula Tabarrok has summarized as “more police, fewer prisons, less crime”: uniformed officers patrolling the streets stopping crime before it starts rather than working in prisons surveilling convicts. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/01/more-police-fewer-prisons-less-crime.html todo reread xxx About a year ago, Stephen Mello of Princeton University assessed the Obama-era increase in federal police funding. Thanks to the stimulus bill, funding for Clinton’s Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) hiring grant program surged from about $20 million a year in the late-Bush era to $1 billion in 2009. The program design allowed Mello to assess some quasi-random variation in which cities got grants. The data shows that compared to cities that missed out, those that made the cut ended up with police staffing levels that were 3.2 percent higher and crime levels that were 3.5 percent lower. Mello 2018: preprint: # causal studies: literature review & instrumental variable Chalfin 2017: literature review: most studies with causal or quasi-causal methodology found that an increase in police significantly decreases violent and nonviolent crime; 2SLS instrumental variable: on average from 1960-2010, 1% more cops yields 0.67% less murder, 0.34% less violent crime, and 0.17% less property crime: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974865398103150612/unknown.png instrumental variable: either (Annual Survey of Government (ASG) number of sworn officers) on (Uniform Crime Survey (UCS) number of sworn officers), or vice versa Chalfin 2017: 2SLS instrumental variable: on average from 1960-2010, every $1 spent on extra policing generated either $1.63 in social benefits: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974866610181521468/unknown.png Chalfin 2017: 2SLS instrumental variable: when adding direct prison costs, the above drops to $1.31; but both estimates ignore indirect social benefits of policing, which strongly suggest that US cities are underpoliced: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974867297611153458/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974867873673654312/unknown.png # correlational studies: less domestic violence Zeoli 2010: correlational evidence suggests that intimate partner homicide is ~32% less per logged police officer per 1000 in 46 cities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/821830845294968842/unknown.png # mechanism: not through incapacitation but through deterrence It’s important in that context to note a recent study by John MacDonald, Jeffrey Fagan, and Amanda Geller that looked at localized policing surges in New York City (dubbed “Operation Impact” by the NYPD) over a period of years. They found that surges led to both less crime and more “stop and frisk”-type incidents where officers stopped citizens (typically young black or Latino men) without probable cause. That suggests a sharp trade-off between crime reduction and civil rights. But the same study, by looking at the covariance of “stop and frisks” and crime reduction, found that the additional stops were doing nothing to reduce crime. All of the anti-crime impact, in other words, came from putting more cops on the beat rather than from the use of aggressive tactics. New York City, not coincidentally, has continued to enjoy low and falling crime rates since stop and frisk tactics were curtailed. What’s helpful is more officers, not more harassment. # mechanism: not through incapacitation but through deterrence: broken windows: empirically invalid Harcourt and Ludwig 2006: there is no direct evidence that aggressive policing of lower-level offenses deters or incapacitates more serious offenses: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/939954753440452608/unknown.png """Our analysis provides no empirical evidence to support the view that shifting police towards minor disorder offenses would improve the efficiency of police spending and reduce violent crime.""" # implications: spend less on prisons and more on cops The criminologist Lawrence Sherman has observed that the United States is very unusual in spending much more money on the prison system than on our police departments. https://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/nyregion/police-have-done-more-than-prisons-to-cut-crime-in-new-york.html?pagewanted=3&_r=0&smid=tw-share&pagewanted=all&login=email&auth=login-email # implications: reorient cop time usage Asher and Horwitz 2020: proportion of time that officers spend responding to violent & nonviolent calls, proactive policing, traffic issues, medical & other issues: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/751442347069407302/unknown.png # implication: more workers, shorter shifts: fight fatigue [xxx reread] The key mechanism here is fatigue — which while obviously not a substitute for curing systemic racism, is a lot easier to fix with concrete short-term steps. Tired officers, across a variety of studies, generate more complaints from the civilians they interact with. https://www.governing.com/topics/public-justice-safety/gov-police-officers-overworked-cops.html A 2017 audit of the Kings County Sheriff’s Department in Washington found that working a single hour of overtime led to a 2.7 percent increase in the odds that the officer would be involved in a use-of-force incident the following week. https://www.kingcounty.gov/~/media/depts/auditor/new-web-docs/2017/kcao-overtime-2017/kcao-overtime-2017.ashx?la=en A 2015 study of police officers in Phoenix found that being assigned to a 13-hour rather than 10-hour shift led to increases in fatigue and Professional Standards Bureau complaints. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1098611115584910?journalCode=pqxa A 2018 study found that working back-to-back night shifts increased the odds of public complaints, and that the effect is particularly large when the officers had to make court appearances in the daytime between the night shifts. https://academic.oup.com/sleep/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/sleep/zsy231/5195409?redirectedFrom=fulltext # political causes: todo reread Bose 2020: # clearance rate Pew 2017: most crimes go unreported (including 55% of violent and 65% of property crime) and most reported crimes go unsolved (including 55% of violent and 80% of property crime): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862858598723092530/FT_17.png # underpolicing: clearance rate & reporting rate https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/01/most-violent-and-property-crimes-in-the-u-s-go-unsolved/ baltimore https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/baltimore-city/bs-md-ci-crime-policy-20191230-zk2v2auuhbgq3f7zsh3t7rt6cm-story.html https://foxbaltimore.com/news/city-in-crisis/baltimore-police-departments-clearance-rate-now-426 https://www.latimes.com/opinion/bookclub/la-reading-los-angeles-kennedy-ghettoside-20150404-story.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-underpolicing-of-black-america-1422049080 # todo: black lives matter protests -- todo reread xxx -- see published responses, eg the gun store location study (FFL) Devi and Fryer 2020: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985382183566999593/unknown.png Campbell 2021: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985381802808082432/unknown.png """A difference-in-differences design finds census places with protests experienced a 15% to 20% decrease in police homicides from 2014 through 2019, around 300 fewer deaths. This decrease was prominent when protests were large or frequent. Potential mechanisms behind the reduction include police agencies obtaining body-worn cameras to curtail force and depolicing following a so-called `Ferguson Effect.' Fewer property crimes, but more murders, were reported to agencies with local protests; in contrast, the property crime clearance rate fell.""" #####c #####c ##### # # uncategorized # #####o ##### # rehabilitation vs retribution #####o # recidivism over time rates over time: It was found that in 1994, 51.8% of individuals released from prison in the United States were re-incarcerated within three years (Lagan & Levin, 2002). In more recent years, it was found that in 1999, 45.4% of individuals and in 2004, 43.3% of individuals were re-incarcerated within three years of their release (Pew Center on the States, 2011). # rehabilitation: recidivism decrease: todo rehabilitation reduces recidivism rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/458075175305609216/unknown.png www.antoniocasella.eu/nume/Mastrobuoni_Terlizzese_bollate_oct14.pdf rehabilitative programs reduce recidivism and increase employment: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470280212265959425/unknown.png # retribution: recidivism increase longer prison sentences increase recidivism by 3% (0.18% per month after 12.7 months), but there was no difference https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636493104379068416/unknown.png The essential conclusions reached from this study were: 1. Prisons should not be used with the expectation of reducing criminal behaviour. 2. On the basis of the present results, excessive use of incarceration has enormous cost implications. 3. In order to determine who is being adversely affected by prison, it is incumbent upon prison officials to implement repeated, comprehensive assessments of offenders’ attitudes, values, and behaviours while incarcerated. 4. The primary justification of prison should be to incapacitate offenders (particularly, those of a chronic, higher risk nature) for reasonable periods and to exact retribution.` # retribution is ineffective: three strike laws Kovandzic et al 2004: three strike laws have no causal decrease on index crime rates (homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, auto theft): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962427343480160266/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962427772632969236/unknown.png controls: Age, % poverty, income, % black, % Hispanic, % female, % living alone, prison population, prison population, last year crime Caulkins 2001: three-strike laws are extremely expensive; even assuming that incarceration inherently reduces crime, three strike laws would cost about $12,000 per crime prevented: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636489869056540682/unknown.png # recidivism: negative effects Falk et al 2013: in Sweden from 1973-2004, persistent violent offenders (3+ convictions) did the majority of violent crime [sexual violence excluded]: 0.12% of the population received 19.8% of the violent crime convictions (1/10 do 20), 1.02% received 63.2% (1 do 63), and 3.91% received all 100% (4 do 100); compared with sex- and age-matched non-offenders, violent offenders were significantly more likely to have personality and mental disorders, violent convictions before 19 and , and nonviolent criminality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/865137886000578560/127_2013_783_Fig2_HTML.png Falk 2013: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962421975291150467/unknown.png """The distribution of convictions was highly skewed; 24,342 persistent violent offenders (1.0 % of the total population) accounted for 63.2 % of all convictions. Persistence in violence was associated with male sex (OR 2.5), personality disorder (OR 2.3), violent crime conviction before age 19 (OR 2.0), drug-related offenses (OR 1.9), nonviolent criminality (OR 1.9), substance use disorder (OR 1.9), and major mental disorder (OR 1.3). [....] Among individuals convicted of one violent crime, 44% (41,257 of 93,642) were reconvicted. After 2 violent convictions, 59% (24,342 of 41,257) were reconvicted, and after 3 convictions, 68% (16,435 of 24,342) were reconvicted. If violent careers could be stopped after 3 convictions, 53% of all violent convictions would be prevented. The recurrence rate increased from about 70% after 4 convictions to about 80% after 7 and to about 90% after 11 crimes per individual, after which the low number of perpetrators at each new step made further analyses difficult to interpret.""" Falk 2013: as a result, reducing recidivism rates would enormously reduce violent crime: if every persister had done just 1 violent crime, 78% of violent crimes would have been avoided: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/865147319519674378/unknown.png #####c ##### # juvenile incarceration #####o # effects on crime juvenile incarceration decreases schooling and increases re-incarceration later in life: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/505579729059971082/unknown.png # effects on economics juvenile incarceration is very expensive: Multisystemic Therapy (MST) and Functional Family Therapy (FFT) are intensive family treatment models for delinquent youth. In MST, therapists lead a regimented three- to five-month family intervention process involving multiple contacts each week in the family’s home and surrounding community. FFT employs office-based counseling (an average of 12 sessions) designed first to engage family members and then to support meaningful behavior changes that improve family interaction and address the underlying causes of delinquent behavior. Costs average $6,000 to $9,500 per youth for MST and $3,000 to $3,500 for FFT, whereas **a typical stay in a juvenile corrections facility (9 to 12 months at $241 per day) costs $66,000 to $88,000.** #####c ##### # drug decriminalization in Portugal (2001-2008) slightly more conservative (2009-current) #####o # key articles read Hughes and Stevens 2012 (which argues that Portugues drug policy was neither a "resounding success" nor a "disastrous failure", but a modestly successful policy) and Rego et al 2021 (which explains the origins and context of Portuguese drug law) # portugal decriminalization in 2001 Hughes and Stevens 2007: summary of model: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1067575271743574027/image.png Rego et al 2021: in 2008, the Portugues Supreme Court re-established drug use as a crime; since that date, the vast majority of convictions have resulted in a fine (90%) or suspended prison sentence (~5%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1067583177478127656/image.png # todo Hughes and Stevens 2010: 2001 usage data: Balsa, C., Farinha, T., Urbano, C. and Francisco, A. (2004), Inque´rito Nacional ao Consumo de Substaˆncias Psicoactivas na populacxa˜o portuguesa—2001. Lisboa: CEOS, Investigacxo˜es Sociolo´gicas, Faculdade de Cieˆncias Sociais e Humanas, Universidade Nova de Lisboa. 2007 usage data: Balsa, C., Vital, C., Urbano, C. and Pascueiro, L. (2007), II Inque´rito Nacional ao Consumo de Substaˆncias Psicoactivas na Populacxa˜o Portuguesa—2007, Lisboa: CEOS, Investigacxo˜es Sociolo´gicas, Faculdade de Cieˆncias Sociais e Humanas, Universidade Nova de Lisboa. see more recent ESPAD reports: Hibell, B., Guttormsson, U., Ahlstro¨m, S., Balakireva, O., Bjarnason, T., Kokkevi, A. and Kraus, L. (2009), The 2007 ESPAD Report: Substance Use Among Students in 35 European Countries. Stockholm: Sweden, The Swedish Council for Information on Alcohol and Other Drugs (CAN). Table 3: Changes in drug-related death*, 1999-2003 (Tavares et al. 2005) https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1067588830577823765/image.png Tavares, LV, Graça, PM, Martins, O & Asensio, M (2005), External and Independent Evaluation of the “National Strategy for the Fight Against Drugs” and of the “National Action Plan for the Fight Against Drugs and Drug Addiction – Horizon 2004”, Portuguese National Institute of Public Administration, Lisbon. # todo grab these stats EMCDDA 2022 Statistical Bulletin: Drug Overdose Deaths: Trends > [national definition] OR [European definition]: EMCDDA 2022 Statistical Bulletin: Prevalence of Drug Use: Trends > [drug name] > [prevalence measure] > [age]: EMCDDA 2022 Statistical Bulletin: Problem Drug Use: [drug name] > Trends: can obtain data on penalties on drug users -- see graph from Rego et al 2021: : # drug use rates monthly drug use has declined among adults and teens: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642018921813377024/unknown.png Hughes and Stevens 2012: lifetime drug use questions suggest a dramatic decline in usage among school-age survey respondents: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1067582762254614558/image.png """Incorporating these data indicates that the moderate rise in student’s reported lifetime cannabis use around the time of the reform reflected predominantly short-term, experimental use, which subsided in the years following reform.""" Hughes and Stevens 2012: in contrast, "current use" and "recent use" questions suggest little change betwen 2001 and 2007: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1067584717479751740/image.png # drug death rates Hughes and Stevens 2012: drug deaths declined in INE data (good quality) but stagnated in INML data (bad quality): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1067586241303949352/image.png Hughes and Stevens 2012: explains the weaknesses of the INML drug death data: it does not indicate that the drug caused the death, merely that the drug was present; since autopsies that checked for drugs dramatically increased, this makes it an unreliable indicator: """Unlike much of the Western world, Portugal has not historically collected or reported information on deaths that are directly attributable to drug intoxication. Indeed, information on ‘overdose’ only became available in November 2010 (following calls by the EMCDDA and Instituto da Droga e da Toxicodependência (IDT) for harmonisation and improvement of indicators of drug-related deaths) [12]. Until recently the primary indicator ‘drug-related deaths’ has been produced by the INML [National Institute of Forensic Medicine] and defined as the number of deaths that involve a positive post-mortem toxicological test for the presence of illicit substances [12]. It is the only data available before and after the reform, but it has two major limitations. First, as noted by Greenwald, it is responsive to changes in recording practices, such as the number of toxicological autopsies. Second, it is only an indirect indicator of attributable death; many people are found to have traces of a drug in their body when they die, but this does not mean that the drug caused the death. This is why the standard international classification of drug-related death relies on reports by physicians on their assessment of the cause of death, not positive toxicological tests [41]. The data weaknesses and a substantial rise in toxicological autopsies from 2005 to 2009 give merit for suggesting that as argued by both Greenwald and our own account [8], the rise in ‘positive post-mortem toxicological tests’ may have been largely spurious. Yet neither the possibility of a spurious change nor substantial changes in recording practices were mentioned in the Pinto accounts.""" Hughes and Stevens 2012: explains the strengths of the INE drug death data: it follows international standards of attributing a death to drugs when doctors determine the drug caused their death: """Data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) has recently been made available and backdated from 2001 onwards. This provides a more accurate indicator of drug-attributable death as it refers to the number of people that have been determined by doctors according to International Classification of Diseases protocols to have died due to drugs [12]. INE data support the hypothesis that the reported rise in the INML data was spurious as the number of people determined by physicians to have died due to drug use decreased from 2001, with a slight increase from 2005 to 2008/9 (to levels that remain much lower than at the time of decriminalisation) [12,42] (see Figure 4).This is not to say that decreases are attributable solely to the reform, with the expanded services a more plausible explanation, but a key goal of the reform had been to reduce social stigma and thereby facilitate access to Portuguese drug treatment and harm reduction services. As shown in Hughes and Stevens [8] drug treatment access in Portugal expanded considerably post-reform. This provides partial evidence that the reform may have contributed to the observed declines.""" drug deaths have declined: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642019090705285130/deaths-1.png note: no source given HIV and AIDS transmission among drug users has declined almost 100 times: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642019137748598794/HIV-AIDS.png # economic costs decriminalization is not expensive; drug policy costs just 0.05% of Portugal's GDP: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471447944105558027/unknown.png while in Europe, on average, just incarceration for drug offenses cost 0.05 % of GDP or EUR 5.9 billion # criminal justice burden decriminalization reduced the number of people charged with drug possession and therefore reduced the pressure of drugs on the criminal justice system: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471450847067373570/unknown.png # todo Vice: #####c ##### # drug legalization and drug decriminalization: other examples #####o # marijuana legalization legalizing marijuana has cut violent crime: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470973259790155778/unknown.png legalizing marijuana reduces opioid deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471450074589823006/ioi140081f2.png legalizing marijuana reduces opioid abuse: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471449741906018315/ajph.png # health needle programs work: Intravenous drug users were among the most at-risk populations for contracting AIDS in the earliest years of the epidemic. In 1992, 52 percent of newly diagnosed AIDS cases in New York were among I.V. drug users. By 2012, intravenous drug users accounted for only 3 percent of new H.I.V. diagnoses. # crime the illegal drug market causes violent crime and cannot be solved by increased law enforcement: The present systematic review demonstrates that drug law enforcement interventions are unlikely to reduce drug market violence. Instead, and contrary to the conventional wisdom that increasing drug law enforcement will reduce violence, the existing scientific evidence base suggests that drug prohibition likely contributes to drug market violence and increased homicide rates and that increasingly sophisticated methods of disrupting illicit drug distribution networks may in turn increase levels of violence. # colorado legalization in 2014 (jan 1) after colorado legalized marijuana in 2014, marijuana use increased among 18+ (from ~30% to ~32%) and decreased among 12-17 (from ~10% to ~8%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640988750629044224/unknown.png sample size 5207 for 2015-16, in-person interviews based on Census-weighted population data # public opinion in 2019, 66% of Americans said "marijuana should be made legal": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/659904151718854708/unknown.png #####c ##### # "kill drug dealers": Philippines example #####o # summary wikipedia article: # prices Baldwin and Marshall 2017: not clear that drug prices are rising: In July 2016, a gram of shabu cost 1,200-11,000 pesos ($24-$220), according to agency’s figures. Last month, a gram cost 1,000-15,000 pesos ($20-$300), it said. # drug use rates in Philippines, 2% of population uses meth: # criminal justice burden 118,000 "drug personalities" have been arrested: #####c ##### # "kill drug dealers": Northern Ireland example #####o # todo study about Ireland: # drug use data about Ireland: #####c ##### # death penalty #####o # financial harms the death penalty in Washington state costs 1.43x more than comparable life without parole: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/680058134114730005/unknown.png # effect on crime: consensus Radelet 2009: in a consensus survey, 88% of criminologists held that the death penalty does not reduce murder rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1066585617082880030/image.png """To shed light on this dispute, we drew up a list in mid-2008 of every living person who (1) was a Fellow in the American Society of Criminology (ASC),69 (2) had won the ASC's Sutherland Award, the highest award given by that organization for contributions to criminological theory,70 or (3) was a president of the ASC between 1997 and the present. The American Society of Criminology was founded in 1941 and is the world's largest organization of academic criminologists, boasting a membership in 2008 of 3,500 criminologists from fifty countries.71""" ^ NAP 2012: most of the research on the death penalty is of very low quality: """This new report from the Committee on Law and Justice concludes that research to date on the effect of capital punishment on homicide rates is not useful in determining whether the death penalty increases, decreases, or has no effect on these rates. The key question is whether capital punishment is less or more effective as a deterrent than alternative punishments, such as a life sentence without the possibility of parole. Yet none of the research that has been done accounted for the possible effect of noncapital punishments on homicide rates.""" ^ todo: Manski and Pepper 2013: """The results are findings of partial identification that bound the deterrent effect of capital punishment. Under the weakest restrictions, there is substantial ambiguity: we cannot rule out the possibility that having a death penalty statute substantially increases or decreases homicide. This ambiguity is reduced when we impose stronger assumptions, but inferences are sensitive to the maintained restrictions.""" ^ todo: Gerritzen and Kirchgassner 2013: meta-analysis: # effect on crime: recidivism among 1088 released homicide offenders after a followup period of mean 10.3 years, 60% were re-arrested for any crime, 21% for a serious offence (robbery, assault, sexual assault, abduction, extortion, burglary, arson, child pornography), and 0.28% were re-arrested for murder: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/750925786235797524/unknown.png # innocence rate Gross et al 2014: 1.6% of death row inmates have been exonerated and at least 4.1% are expected to be exonerated: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/750929490800148583/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/750930296286740520/unknown.png # psychological harms Armour and Umbreit 2012: life sentencing provides closure while death penalty does not: among 46 close family members of a homicide victim, those in Texas (where the homicidal agent was sentenced to death) and Minnesota (to life imprisonment), Minnesotans had higher satisfaction, were less likely to still be involved in prosecution, and more likely to have post-prosecution growth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/621830292663042099/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1066584664489345134/image.png """This Study used in-person interviews with a randomly selected sample of survivors from four time periods to examine the totality of the ultimate penal sanction (UPS) process and its longitudinal impact on their lives. Moreover, it assessed the differential effect of two types of UPS by comparing survivors’ experiences in Texas, a death penalty state, and Minnesota, a life without the possibility of parole (LWOP) state. Comparing states highlights differences primarily during the postconviction stage, specifically with respect to the appeals process and in regard to survivor well-being. In Minnesota, survivors of adjudicated cases show higher levels of physical, psychological, and behavioral health.""" # consciousness during execution Koniaris et al 2005: reviewing autopsy data after the death penalty, 43% of lethal injection victims examined would likely have been conscious: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1066581911658569748/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1066581946987204638/image.png """If post-mortem thiopental concentrations are taken as a surrogate marker of concentrations in the blood during life, most of the executed inmates had concentrations that would not be expected to produce a surgical plane of anaesthesia, and 21 (43%) had concentrations consistent with consciousness (figure 2). In a careful study in which actual serum thiopental concentrations were measured against clinical endpoints, the steady state serum concentration needed to produce a 50% probability of no muscle response (Cp50) after intubation was defined as 78·8 mg/L (SD 2·9).7 The Cp50 for movement after trapezius muscle squeeze, a stimulus equivalent to skin incision, was 38·9 mg/L (3·3). Remarkably, 43 of the 49 inmates had blood thiopental concentrations below this level. Most worryingly, 21 inmates had concentrations less than the Cp50 for repression of movement in response to a vocal command. In view of these data, we suggest that it is possible that some of these inmates were fully aware during their executions. We certainly cannot conclude that these inmates were unconscious and insensate. However, with no monitoring and with use of the paralytic agent, any suffering of the inmate would be undetectable.""" #####c ##### # stranger rape #####o only 1 in 5 rapes are committed by strangers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/498578768940498965/unknown.png only 1 in 4 sexual assaults are committed by strangers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640988679589855262/7_Out_of_10_Rapes20122016.png #####c ##### # asset forfeiture #####o police steal more than burglars do: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642020147992985601/DPJbxRWUQAAFGy8.png #####c ##### # police psychological issues #####o # police are more likely to abuse their spouses police officers are about 3-4x more likely to violently abuse their spouses: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542380325943246871/Dygi9njV4AA1yfI.png In a 1988 Arizona study of 553 police officers and their spouses, 41% of male officers and 34% of female officers reported violent assaults in their marital relationships compared with 16% of civilians. Over one-third of wives of police officers (37%) reported violence in their marriage. (Neidig, Russell, and Seng, unpublished). A 1981 survey of Toronto police officers found a divorce and separation rate of 63%, almost double the national average among Canadians at the time. Recent studies indicate that as many as 75% of police marriages in large metropolitan areas are likely to end in divorce. (Came, et al., 1989). [....] A 1986 review suggested that as many as 30% of all police officers abuse alcohol, compared with less than 10% of the population at large. (Hepp, 1987) police officers and military are about 3x more likely to abuse their spouses: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542386621589225472/unknown.png #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # economics [axis two] # # #####o ##### # # inequality and immobility # #####o ##### # scope of inequality and immobility #####o # all: usa literally every kind of inequality is getting worse (wealth, income, consumption): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/451095898643103774/unknown.png # wealth inequality: usa the US has the greatest wealth inequality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/546052438742925342/unknown.png the US has much more wealth inequality than income inequality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/546052767396003860/unknown.png # wealth inequality: global in 2018, the top 0.8% held 44.8% of all wealth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729373802605314108/global-wealth-1.png ^ scrollbar-based representation of global wealth inequality: https://mkorostoff.github.io/1-pixel-wealth/ ^ graphical representation of global wealth inequality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729375419043807282/global-wealth-distribution.png # wealth inequality: stocks the top 1% owns 56% of all equities (stock and ownership stakes), while the bottom 90% own just 12%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729376206402617464/unknown.png """Three decades ago, ownership was also lopsided, but the top percentage point of Americans by wealth only controlled 46 per cent of all US equities held by households. By the end of September 2019, that proportion had hit a record 56 per cent, amounting to $21.4tn, according to the investment bank’s calculations. That includes both public stock and ownership stakes in private companies.""" # income inequality america is less mobile than the UK or any Scandinavian country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/500152236954091552/unknown.png # income mobility relative movement of income across generations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/541706766497611795/unknown.png absolute movement of income across generations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/562401774040776744/unknown.png on average, it would take 5 generations to move from the bottom 10% to the median 50% of incomes in the USA: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571372895172034580/1-520generations.png income mobility is dead: you've got a 50/50 chance of earning more at 30 than your parents did at 30: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/440522065435688971/unknown.png # income inequality over time those with higher incomes have seen faster income growth than those with lower incomes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/630636255075500063/Screenshot_2017_08_08_12.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/630649812458536962/DGrnYwsUQAA__F0.png #####c ##### # causes of inequality and immobility #####o # cyclical poverty and childhood poverty Reeves Sawhill 2014: those disadvantaged in early stages of life are much more likely to be disdvantaged at later stages of life: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879080433978052628/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879080104817483887/unknown.png poverty literally stunts brain growth -- there are significant impacts for family income below 50,000 or so: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/569393383664254976/unknown.png poverty during childhood harms the growth of the brain, reduces academic performance, and reduces intellectual performance: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640924887631790080/poi150042t2.png # education inequality higher parental income increases a student's college graduation rate by 1.8-5.3 times: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571190137065832464/unknown.png income and education between generations have a strong relationship: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471530960190439425/unknown.png ^ the causal pathways for this are not yet fully understood: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641981729976090644/fnins-08-00276-g001.png academic performance differences between the rich and the poor have increased, not decreased: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471543022480392193/unknown.png # income inequality higher income inequality is associated with reduced mobility: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470957964606439434/unknown.png # unmeritocratic pay at the top CEO compensation vs worker compensation has increased from 20x higher to 200x higher -- are CEOs 10x more productive today than they were in 1960? https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/666363950715240468/unknown.png # luck luck very probably has a significant role in financial and scientific success: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/446517996391890945/unknown.png # wasteful consumption / frivolous consumption the poor don't spend more on entertainment; instead, they spend more on food and healthcare: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/493141364620656660/unknown.png the poor do not spend frivolously: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/509185233023795220/unknown.png the poor spend very little on luxury spending (here defined as "goods whose consumption increases as income increases") https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/573973503267831846/unknown.png # rise of superstar incomes (probably not based on genuine productive differences) the rise of superstar incomes is mostly due to the rise of financial/manager incomes: """Our findings suggest that **the incomes of executives, managers, supervisors, and financial professionals can account for 60 percent of the increase in the share of national income going to the top percentile of the income distribution** between 1979 and 2005.""" """The incomes of executives, managers, financial professionals, and technology professionals who are in the top 0.1 percent of the income distribution are found to be very sensitive to stock market fluctuations. **Most of our evidence points towards a particularly important role for financial market asset prices, shifting of income between the corporate and personal tax bases, and possibly corporate governance and entrepreneurship, in explaining the dramatic rise in top income shares.**""" divergence of very-top incomes: relative shift towards financial and manager incomes, not "worker" incomes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779167580824403978/unknown.png """[E]ven within the top one percent of income earners, there has been a large amount of divergence in the incomes of people within the same profession. This point is highlighted in Table 11, which reports the ratio of the annual real growth rate among people in each profession in the top 0.1 percent of the national income distribution to the growth rate for taxpayers in the same profession in the 99th to 99.5th percentile range, again holding the occupational composition of the top quantiles constant. Most notably, the real income growth rate for non-financial executives in the top 0.1 percent was 7 times as large as for non-financial executives in the 99th to 99.5th percentile range.""" the top 0.1% has seen their income increase mostly due to an increase in salary income, not capital gains income (which is similar) or interest income (which declined): """As a result, salary income and business income account for about 63 percent of the increase in the share of national income (including capital gains) going to the top 0.1 percent of the income distribution between 1971-1980 and 2001-2010, so theories to explain the rising top income shares shown in Figure 1 must largely be about compensation for labor. Among taxpayers who were in the top 0.1 percent of the income distribution ranked by income including capital gains, salary income and business income accounted for 34 percent of income including capital gains, on average 1971-1980, and 56 percent of income including capital gains, on average 2001- 2010. The total share of national income including capital gains going to the top 0.1 percent increased from an average of 2.9 percent during 1971-1980 to an average of 9.6 percent during 2001-2010. The 63 percent figure noted in the text is (0.56*9.6 – 0.4*2.9) / (9.6 - 2.9). Capital gains accounted for 34 percent of the incomes of people in the top 0.1 percent on average 1971-1980, and 30 percent 2001-2010. Other capital income such as dividends and interest declined from 26 percent of income to 14 percent of income for the top 0.1 percent of income earners over this period.""" #####c ##### # piketty's r>g #####o Jorda 2019: """Using a measure of portfolio returns to compute “r minus g” in Piketty’s notation, we uncover an important finding. Even calculated from more granular asset price returns data, the same fact reported in Piketty (2014) holds true for more countries, more years, and more dramatically: namely “r >> g.” [....] Benhabib and Bisin (2016) show that in a wide class of models featuring stochastic returns to wealth, a higher gap between r and g increases the Pareto index of the steady-state wealth distribution, making it more unequal. [....] Our research speaks directly to the relationship between r, the rate of return on wealth, and g, the growth rate of the economy, that figures prominently in the current debate on inequality. One robust finding in this paper is that r >> g: globally, and across most countries, the weighted rate of return on capital was twice as high as the growth rate in the past 150 years.""" Barkai 2020: pure profit share increase: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809554889088565288/unknown.png #####c ##### # solutions for inequality and immobility #####o # general Reeves Sawhill 2014: a few interventions in early life stages result in large cumulative benefits: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879080433978052628/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879084296143511603/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879084573990998086/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072286584226984086/image.png more-equal societies have higher intergererational income mobility: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535566821349392394/unknown.png # economics income inequality can be solved by progressive economic policies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/473659272333623296/DjRkWPeU8AIeWtG.png higher unemployment benefits and higher tax progressivity decrease intergenerational income inequality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535567024542318603/unknown.png # education intergenerational immobility of education can be decreased by larger teacher payscales, higher unemployment replacement rate, higher tax progressivity, higher enrollment in preschoool, less tracking (ie, less nonuniform education), and lower enrollment in vocational school: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535566414648705026/unknown.png education reduces inequality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536584643957227530/unknown.png The conditional MRA predictions reported in Table 3 suggest that education has had no effect on average levels of inequality when measured by the Gini coefficient. However, the MRA also indicates that education has led to a compression in incomes: it has resulted in reduced income inequality at both ends of the income distribution. The results also suggest that compared to primary schooling, secondary schooling and educational attainment are more effective at reducing inequality. increased public education spending is associated with increased educational mobility (difference between years of schooling of child and parent): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571371062294609920/unknown.png # health mobility increased health employment is associated with increased health mobility (difference between self-reported health of child and parent): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571371113968566293/unknown.png # labor policy decreased middle class residents falling into poverty is associated with increased active labor market policy (programs to help residents find work) spending: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571372698341736458/unknown.png #####c ##### # effects of inequality and immobility #####o # weaker economic growth (meta-studies) Neves Afonso Silva 2016: meta-analysis: inequality has a medium negative effect on growth, and that wealth inequality has a stronger effect -- a 10% increase in inequality correlates with a 3% decrease in growth -- though this effect is larger in developing than developed nations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/723000794890240081/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013263912289960058/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013263585474003014/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013264042019799050/unknown.png """After correcting for these two forms of publication bias, we investigated the sources of heterogeneity by means of a metaregression. As in Dominicis et al.’s (2008) our results suggest that for a 5% level of significance: the effect of inequality on growth is negative and more pronounced in less developed countries than in rich countries; the inclusion of regional dummies in the growth regression of the primary studies considerably weakens such effect; expenditure and gross income inequality tend to lead to different estimates of the effect size. However, contrary to it Dominicis et al. (2008), we find that: the impact of inequality on growth is not significantly influenced by the quality of the data on income distribution or by the use of different panel estimation techniques; crosssection studies systematically report a stronger negative impact than panel data studies. Furthermore, our results suggest that wealth inequality is more pernicious to subsequent growth than income inequality is. With the exception of the impact of using expenditure versus gross income, all these results are robust.""" Dominicis Florax de Groot 2008: meta-analysis finds that inequality has a weak negative effect on growth: """The use of fixed-effects estimators or the inclusion of regional-specific dummies in the regressions has a similar effect of reducing the negative impact of inequality on growth in the cross-section estimates, and of accentuating the positive effect in studies based on pooled data. In accordance with Barro (2000), we found that the correlation between growth and income inequality is different in rich as compared to poor countries. The negative impact of an uneven distribution of income is higher in less developed countries.""""""The longer the length of the growth period (ie, from 5 to 10 to 20 years), the lower the coefficient estimates of the correlation between income and economic growth [become]. This result supports the assertion that the mechanism at the basis of the relationship between inequality and growth works differently in the short run as compared to the long run. We also found that the quality of data on income inequality and economic growth is weaker, regardless whether the correlation is estimated to be positive or negative.""" # weaker economic growth (simple studies) Cingano 2014: income inequality hurts economic growth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/440348220963553281/unknown.png Dabla-Norris 2015: income increases for the bottom 60% are associated with increased GDP, while increases for the top 20% are associated with decreased GDP: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729363418317848620/unknown.png """More importantly, we find an inverse relationship between the income share accruing to the rich (top 20 percent) and economic growth. If the income share of the top 20 percent increases by 1 percentage point, GDP growth is actually 0.08 percentage point lower in the following five years, suggesting that the benefits do not trickle down. Instead, a similar increase in the income share of the bottom 20 percent (the poor) is associated with 0.38 percentage point higher growth. This positive relationship between disposable income shares and higher growth continues to hold for the second and third quintiles (the middle class). This result survives a variety of robustness checks, and is in line with recent findings for a smaller sample of advanced economies (OECD 2014).""" # increased crime Martin 2001: income inequality explains most of the homicide differences between Canadian provinces, between US states, and between Canada and the US: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639976333593804814/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639976597402681366/unknown.png Comparison across the Canadian provinces provides a test case in which average income and the Gini are, instead, positively correlated, and we find that the positive relationship between the Gini and the homicide rate is undiminished. Temporal change in the Gini is also shown to be a significant predictor of temporal change in provincial homicide rates. When Canadian provinces and U.S. states are considered together, local levels of income inequality appear to be sufficient to account for the two countries' radically different national homicide rates. Metz 2016: income inequality within and between neighborhoods strongly predicts property crime; 1% higher poverty in a housing block -> 0.5% higher property crime; 1% higher income difference with poorest neighboring neighboring block -> 0.25% higher property crime: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862859295745507348/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639981935279472690/10.png """The average total impact of a 1% increase in the percentage of households under the poverty line is estimated to have a 0.48% increase in the block group property crime rate. The average total impact of a 1% increase in the percentage of high income households is estimated to have a 0.81% decrease in the block group property crime rate. The average total impact of a 1% increase in the income difference from the poorest neighbouring block group is estimated to have a 0.25% increase in the block group property crime rate.""" higher income inequality significantly predicts higher homicide and lower trust: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639982730985340948/unknown.png The association between income inequality and homicide (Path c) was statistically significant; each SD increase in income inequality corresponded to 0.82 SD increase in homicide. Associations between income inequality and trust, and between trust and homicide, were also significant. Each SD increase in income inequality corresponded to a 0.65 SD decrease in trust, and each SD increase in trust corresponded to a 0.58 SD decrease in homicide. # decreased home ownership higher wealth inequality correlates with lower home ownership: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/546052606707892224/unknown.png # psychological outcomes Kahneman 2010: money buys diminishing happiness: people with higher incomes are happier, but the returns from income decrease as income increases: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/441765847720263680/unknown.png Killingsworth 2021: increased income correlates with increased happiness with diminishing returns (each doubling of income only increases happiness linearly; example: happiness gain from $30k/yr to $60k/yr is same as from $240k/yr to $480k/yr) and with no inflection point (there is no point at which happiness gains drop off): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/801687076960731166/F1.png higher social class is associated with greed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuqGrz-Y_Lc # increased death in 1965, if wealth had been equally distributed between countries, 14,060,000 deaths (22.7% of 62,000,000 deaths total) could have been avoided: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471050055734788102/unknown.png #####c ##### # inheritance: scope #####o # scope ~60% of private wealth in the USA and ~55% of private wealth in Europe is inherited: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542503380476624916/unknown.png # scope at death very few old people in the USA have over 1 million dollars: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/724654020555178064/unknown.png poor people don't survive to become seniors: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/poor-people-often-dont-survive-to-become-seniors-who-vote.html unformatted between 1980 and 2008, less than 2.5% of deaths were subject to the estate tax: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729717183097208852/Estate_Tax_Returns_as_a_Percentage_of_Adult_Deaths2C_1982_-_2010.png # scope by income in the USA, higher-income and higher-wealth people are more likely to inherit wealth, and more likely to inherit more wealth, than lower-income people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/577856179040944128/unknown.png """We also found, somewhat surprisingly, that inheritances and other wealth transfers tend to be equalizing in terms of the distribution of household wealth. Indeed, the addition of wealth transfers to other sources of household wealth has had a sizeable effect on reducing the inequality of wealth.""" in the UK, higher-income people are more likely to inherit wealth, and more likely to inherit more wealth, than lower-income people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/564452559310553098/unknown.png #####c ##### # inheritance: effects #####o # wealth inequality from inheritance Adermon Lindahl Waldenström 2016: inheritance accounts for 50-60% of the effect of parental wealth on child wealth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1163976975560478761/image.png?ex=65418908&is=652f1408&hm=d02509cece6f2a78b3bbda04539bf1d0f2b18f25fe885fdf93b19d9d12ae1a29& """The results suggest that bequests are an important source of an individual’s wealth status. Regressing child wealth rank on inheritance rank (columns 1 and 4) show high and statistically significant correlations between 0.32 and 0.38. Turning to the baseline generational equation (columns 2 and 5), parental wealth correlations are around the same levels as seen before, between 0.26 and 0.31. When adding ranked inheritance to the baseline model (columns 3 and 6), parental wealth correlations drop to 0.12 and 0.14, which represents a drop of between 50 and 60 per cent. This is a remarkably large reduction, suggesting that inherited wealth accounts for the majority of the measured intergenerational wealth correlation.""" direct transfers probably account for most of the environmental correlation between parent and child wealth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/537336682807296050/unknown.png Column 6 of Table 5 presents the estimates when we control for all these possible mechanisms together. All together, we can explain almost 50% of the effect of the biological parent’s wealth effect on children’s wealth, while we are able to explain only a bit more than 20% of the adoptive parent’s wealth effect. 47 Given that most of the environmental effect remains unexplained by earnings, savings rates, and investment returns, direct financial transfers from parents to children are a likely explanation for much of the environmental effect. 48 However, we do not have data on financial transfers that would allow us to study this directly. # wasted inheritances are squandered: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542511150122663947/unknown.png The estimated coefficient on the latter is 0.79 with a standard error of 0.03. This suggests that wealth increases by only $0.79 for every dollar in inheritance received. Alternatively stated, individuals consume 21 percent of the inheritance received. With an adjusted R squared of 0.53, inheritances seem to explain quite a bit of the observed change in wealth. # reduced labor-force participation large inheritances reduce laborforce participation (the rich clock out): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/537337811301564416/unknown.png When the observations are weighted, the estimated effects of inheritances change little as shown in column (3). The estimated coefficient on inheritances becomes -2.66 (se=0.85), with an estimated marginal effect of -0.035 (se=0.018).14 An inheritance of $1 million, other things equal, reduces labor force participation by about 11 percent. # wealth inequality from genetics just 11% of wealth rank can be explained by genetics: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/529171280109240321/unknown.png Using the simplest behavioral genetics model – the ACE model (Cesarini et al., 2010; Cronqvist and Siegel, 2015) – the proportion of the variance due to shared environment equals the first correlation and the proportion of the variance due to genetics equals twice the difference between the second correlation and the first. **We find that, for net wealth, the first correlation is 0.288 (0.047) and the second correlation is 0.343 (0.001) implying that the shared environmental component accounts for 29% and the genetic component for 11% of the variance of the rank of net wealth of children.** This finding is consistent with our main results using regression analysis. # happiness among millionaires, lesser (self-reported) unearned sources of wealth is associated with greater happiness from greater (self-reported) net worth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640242646685581312/unknown.png #####c ##### # effects of heterogenous preferencs on income inequality and wealth inequality #####o # summary Libertarian and conservative intellectuals usually explain income inequality and wealth inequality through heterogenous preferences (differences in desire and behavior). Usually, they state that the rich have "long" time preferences (they have a smaller discount rate, and thus value future consumption more, so they are more "patient" and don't "fritter away" their wealth) and lower risk aversion (which allows them to take on higher-yield but higher-risk investment, which results in higher long-term income and wealth). However, these factors can only explain a small portion of actual wealth inequality. # literature reviews de Nardi 2015: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1163994574151241858/image.png?ex=6541996c&is=652f246c&hm=a696045d8dfce9274037deb8592a875f0989b2ca6ac65846673c566031d52da3& """Disturbingly, even if these mechanisms give rise to similar observed wealth concentrations, they can have vastly different policy implications. For instance, modeling entrepreneurship usually implies that the adverse responses of savings and economic activity to increased taxation are significant, and especially so if taxation affects the returns to running a business (Kitao [68], Lee [77], and Cagetti and De Nardi [26]). In contrast, in a model with high earnings risk for the top earners, Kindermann and Krueger [67] conclude that the optimal marginal income tax rate is close to 90%. Thus, more work needs to be done to more conclusively determine the effects of taxation in quantitative models of wealth inequality.""" Cagetti and de Nardi 2008: todo: # models with evaluation against real world data Hendricks 2007: TODO: How important is discount rate heterogeneity for wealth inequality? Hendricks 2004: discount rate heterogeneity is the most promising way to explain wealth inequality by age, but it still falls short of explaining the low income-wealth correlation and the smaller-than-expected wealth gap between high-income and low-income households: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1163981201648922714/image.png?ex=65418cf8&is=652f17f8&hm=8ec58f32e75af6be69e9cc28fce7b0094e07bef54b2529fdab323c33833d23b5& https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1163981937778638938/image.png?ex=65418da7&is=652f18a7&hm=539b7557f2bf89d3640bcd94849b74f75ccfa0b74e77dc397b9b0fa38194d745& How Important is Preference Heterogeneity for Wealth Inequality? """The effect of β [discount rate] heterogeneity on the wealth distribution is shown in table 4. Relative to the baseline case without preference heterogeneity, more (impatient) households are pushed towards zero wealth. At the same time, the fraction of wealth held by the richest households increases slightly. Quantitatively, the effect is much smaller than in Krusell and Smith (1998). The reason is that the households studied here are finitely lived, retire when old, and do not leave bequests. Abstracting from bequests could be a concern, but it is shown in Hendricks (2004) that neither accidental nor intended bequests have large e§ects on the model properties studied here. One reason is that, in the data as well as in calibrated model economies, the majority of households leaves either no or only very small bequests. This is not the case in Krusell and Smithís model, where households do not decumulate wealth in retirement.""""""The previous section showed that the contribution of time preference heterogeneity towards accounting for high wealth observations is modest, if preference parameters are chosen to replicate observed age-inequality profiles. It is useful to ask whether preference heterogeneity could be more important, if the distribution of preference parameters were chosen in a di§erent way. One way of obtaining an upper bound for the role of preference heterogeneity is to choose preference weights so as to match points on the Lorenz curve for wealth.""""""If the distribution of preference parameters is disciplined to replicate the observed age inequality proÖles of consumption or wealth, the contribution of time preference heterogeneity towards accounting for the observed concentration of wealth is modest. The fraction of wealth held by the richest 1% of households rises slightly, but still falls far short of the data. At the same time, too many impatient households are pushed towards zero wealth. Even if preference parameters are chosen to match points on the Lorenz curve for wealth, the model economies do not come close to replicating the largest wealth holdings. Time preference heterogeneity is more promising for understanding how wealth inequality changes with age and why households with similar lifetime earnings hold very di§erent amounts of wealth. The model economies come very close to replicating the observed age proÖle of wealth inequality and the empirical Gini coe¢ cients of retirement wealth within lifetime earnings deciles. However, the correlation between lifetime earnings and retirement wealth remains too high. Moreover, all of the model economies substantially over-predict the wealth di§erences between earnings rich and earnings poor households.""" Hendricks 2002: todo: Accounting for Patterns of Wealth Inequality #####c #####c ##### # # public housing is good # #####o ##### # housing first vs staircase models #####o # models: overview and contrast the staircase model requires people to obtain increasing levels of treatment and social integration (eg, get clean, get a job) before getting full-time housing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/801941710494105630/unknown.png #####c ##### # housing first: HUD-VASH #####o The United States achieved substantial success in nearly halving homelessness among veterans by attaining the same sort of political consensus and providing resources—for example, greatly expanding a scattered-site supported housing program for veterans called the HUD-VASH program2 . Without Finland’s social benefit programs, the United States would need to rely more heavily on an expansion of housing subsidies, particularly the Housing Choice Voucher program. HUD-U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs (VA) Supportive Housing (HUD-VASH) Program ^Rosenheck 2003: ^ Montgomery 2013: ^ Evans 2019: Results. For each additional voucher, permanent supportive housing units increased by 0.9 and the number of homeless veterans decreased by 1. ^ Byrne 2014: ^ Tsai 2014: ^ Cusack 2017: #####c ##### # housing first: finland success #####o # todo In its greater reliance on congregate as well as scattered-site housing models, the Finnish approach to Housing First differs from the evidence-based programs pioneered by Pathways to Housing in New York City (Tsemberis, Gulcur, and Nakae, 2004) and again proven successful for people with serious mental illnesses in the five-city Canadian At Home/Chez Soi experiment (Aubry et al., 2016; Stergiopoulos et al., 2015). houston program: https://irp-cdn.multiscreensite.com/2d521d2c/files/uploaded/1617_Action_Plan_Final_Digital_082216.pdf houston program: https://irp-cdn.multiscreensite.com/2d521d2c/files/uploaded/Final_2018_PIT_FactSheet_Digital_3.pdf houston program: https://www.texastribune.org/2019/07/02/why-homelessness-going-down-houston-dallas/ # finland: trends over time Shinn 2020: in Finland between 1987 and 2017, one-night estimates of homelessness as the US defines it (long-term homelessness) declined from ~11000 (of 4.9 million, ~0.22%, 1 in 445) to ~500 (of 5.5 million, ~0.009%, 1 in 10,000); all types of homelessness declined from ~18,000 (~0.37%, 1 in 272) to ~7000 (0.12%, 1 in 786): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/893321137772195870/unknown.png # finland: models over time Shinn 2020: the staircase model halved homelessness in Finland but stalled in the 1990s: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/893319095834005504/unknown.png """Using the staircase approach, Finland more than halved homelessness by 1994, but then progress slowed, as shown in exhibit 1. In particular, between 2004 and 2008, the number of single homeless individuals hovered between 7,400 and 7,960. Finland’s annual homeless reports attributed the stalled progress to a group of people with high support needs who were experiencing long-term homelessness, analogous to chronic homelessness in the United States (Pleace, 2017). Researchers suggested that the staircase approach “can work well with those who have opted for substance abuse rehabilitation and can cope with shared housing. However, the insistence on service users being intoxicant-free and able to take control of their lives has proven to be an insuperable barrier for many homeless people with multiple problems” (Tainio and Fredriksson, 2009: 188).""" # finland: construction Henley 2017: the Y-Foundation is a construction firm and a major landlord: “We own much of the land, we have a zoning monopoly, we run our own construction company,” says Riikka Karjalainen, senior planning officer. “That helped a lot with Housing First because simply, there is no way you will eradicate homelessness without a serious, big-picture housing policy.” Shinn 2020: starting in 2008, the "Housing First" model converted and purchased thousands of units of housing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/893319315938508850/unknown.png """A Housing First approach requires housing, and Finland set about converting shelters into apartment units and buying and constructing housing for Housing First. In 1985, Helsinki had 2,121 shelter and hostel beds, and by 2016, the number had shrunk to 52. Meanwhile, supported housing units in Helsinki grew from 127 to 1,309, and independent rental apartments for (formerly) homeless people increased from 65 to 2,433 (Y-Foundation, 2017: 30). The Y-Foundation is currently the fourth largest landlord in Finland.""" # finland: integration Henley 2017: """In each new district, the city maintains a strict housing mix to limit social segregation: 25% social housing, 30% subsidised purchase, and 45% private sector. Helsinki also insists on no visible external differences between private and public housing stock, and sets no maximum income ceiling on its social housing tenants.""" Shinn 2020: residents often performed highly visible social work: """Because programs that house a group of clients in the same building can encounter more community resistance than scattered-site apartments, the Finns have developed elaborate strategies to combat opposition from neighbors. Tenants engage in “neighborhood work,” such as collecting litter or maintaining parks. In one neighborhood, residents donned safety vests and kept watch over a bus stop used by schoolchildren. Neighbors have access to a 24-hour hotline to report any problems (Y-Foundation, 2017).""" #####c ##### # voluntary homelessness is very small #####o # todo urban: # most homeless people wish to obtain housing Stark testimony 1984: 94% of Pheonix homeless reported wanting to leave the streets, suggesting 4-9% were there voluntarily: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/893728659054166016/unknown.png pps 591-615 (n=150 in 1982, 91% wanted off; 195 in 1983, 96% wanted off; n_total = 345) ^ Stark 1982 publication: ^ Stark 1983 publication: p570-591 Caulk report 1983: 78% of Portland homeless reported wanting to leave the streets, suggesting 22% were there voluntarily: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/893726838952702003/unknown.png pps 1001-1051 (n=125) "Do you want to get off the streets or out of your current situation?" (from p1049) # most homeless people are currently or chronically disabled 57-63% of among Pheonix homeless would be considered unable to work (of whom, about 1/3 are severely mentally disabled, 1/3 chronic substance abuse, 1/6 physically handicapped, 1/12 socially maladjusted, and 1/12 over 65 years): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/633857000538898483/unknown.png (n=150 in 1982, 195 in 1983) # many homeless people are veterans 46% of Portland homeless reported having military experience: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/633863768413306880/unknown.png (n=133 in 1983) #####c ##### # suburbs bad #####o # increased obesity regions with decreased walkability had increased obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, and heart disease: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636643744824819712/unknown.png # suburbs increase expense: halifax data higher density development monotonically decreases the cost of city services by about 4 times (example from Halifax): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636641474741534724/unknown.png suburban development requires 2x higher government expenses than urban development: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640731126368960552/sprawlurban.png suburban sprawl is subsidized by cheap fuel and cheap roads and increases global warming and obesity: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636640963879763970/infographic1500.png # suburbs decreased depression more-dense areas and higher-household-income areas had higher rates of depression, controlling for individual income, age, education, area race, and area land use: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636644187961557031/unknown.png higher housing density, higher green space, and higher poverty predicted decreased depression: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/680402254267940952/unknown.png #####c ##### # building new housing: yimby / nimby and gentrification #####o # summary # local rent prices: declines Andreas 2020 preprint: IV: among German municipalities, each new housing unit completed 2010-2017 per 100 housing units offered for rent (on three large rent websites) reduces municipal rents by 0.4-0.7%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086401569244844142/image.png The Impact of New Housing Supply on the Distribution of Rents; rain instrumental variable Asquith Mast Reed 2023: unavailable: Local Effects of Large New Apartment Buildings in Low-Income Areas Asquith Mast Reed 2023 preprint: Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects of New Housing in Low-Income Areas; Upjohn; Atlanta, Austin, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, New York City, Philadelphia, Portland, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C. # local rent prices + submarkets: bigger declines on high-rent properties, zero or increases on low-rent Li 2021: unavailable: Do New Housing Units in Your Backyard Raise Your Rents? Furman Center Li 2019 preprint: DID: among NYC properties, a 10% increase in housing stock from new high-rises (mostly luxury high-rises) reduced rents on properties within 500 feet by 1% overall, insignificantly for the 25% lowest-rent properties, and 1% for 25-100%ile rent properties: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086382919305670686/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086380423795441724/image.png Do New Housing Units in Your Backyard Raise Your Rents? Furman Center """To address the selection bias that developers are more likely to build new high-rises in fast-appreciating areas, I restrict the sample to residential properties near approved new high-rises and exploit the plausibly exogenous timing of completion conditional upon the timing of approval. I provide event study evidence that for every 10% increase in the housing stock, rents decrease 1% and sales prices also decrease within 500 feet. In addition, I show that new high-rises attract new restaurants, which is consistent with the hypothesis about amenity effects. However, I find that the supply effect is larger, causing net reductions in the rents and sales prices of nearby residential properties.""""""New high-rises are mostly luxury buildings. Rents for new high-rises are 60% higher than the average rents in their census tracts, and 30% higher than the average of the upper quartile in their census tracts; see Appendix D.3 for details. To test whether those luxury buildings can meaningfully decrease rents for low-end and mid-range rental buildings, I consider rental buildings’ percentiles in their census tracts based on their 2013 annual rents per unit.35 In this paper, a low-end rental building is categorized as a rental building with relatively low rents per unit in its census tract.""""""To test whether those luxury buildings can meaningfully decrease rents for low-end and mid-range rental buildings, I consider rental buildings’ percentiles in their census tracts based on their 2013 annual rents per unit.35 In this paper, a low-end rental building is categorized as a rental building with relatively low rents per unit in its census tract. As shown in Table 4, within census tracts, new high-rises significantly decrease rents for mid-range rental buildings. It is presumably because of migration chain that as highincome neighbors move into new high-rises, leaving behind older housing stock for middleclass households. Those older housing stock increase mid-range housing supply. However, the rent decrease for low-end rental buildings is not significant in the medium-term.36""" Damiano Frenier 2020 preprint: DID: among properties in Minneapolis 2000-2018, a new construction within 300 meters increased rents by ~6.6% for the 25% lowest-rent properties and decreased rents by ~3.2% for the 25% highest-rent properties: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086388771232165920/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086388779377500261/image.png Build Baby Build?: Housing Submarkets and the Effects of New Construction on Existing Rents Blumgart 2021 (quotes Damiano 2021): """But Damiano cautions that much of the building boom in Minneapolis really began in 2014 and 2015, meaning their paper largely cannot account for the medium to long-term effects of new construction. He explicitly does not cast doubt on the filtering process, by which more expensive homes become more affordable as they age, or the idea that more new housing in the region overall puts downward pressure on prices. “You have to build enough housing for the people who want to live here; otherwise, prices are going to go up,” says Damiano. “Nothing in our research contradicts that fundamental assumption. We’re looking at things in very fine detail on small spatial scales and seeing that there are bumps in the road. Things don’t just work like you would expect in a textbook.”""" # migration chains Mast 2019 preprint: among major metropolitan area residents, sequential migrations created by new housing (and simulations based on that data) suggest that sequential migrations into higher-cost housing stock free housing stock for poorer residents: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086409020589482134/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086408603214291064/image.png The Effect of New Market-Rate Housing Construction on the Low-Income Housing Market """Next, I use individual address history data from Infutor Data Solutions to conduct three related empirical exercises. I first broadly consider migratory connections between neighborhoods in 12 major metropolitan areas (CBSAs) and find strong connectivity between census tracts with slightly different characteristics. Individuals originating in, say, the fifth income decile frequently move to the fourth or seventh decile, but rarely the tenth or first.""""""I identify 686 large new market-rate multifamily buildings in central cities and track 52,000 of their current residents to their previous building of residence.""""""I next sharpen focus to the migratory connections between new construction and lowincome areas and track moves at the building level. I identify 686 large, new, market-rate multifamily buildings in 12 large central cities and track 52,000 of their current residents to their previous buildings of residence. I then find the tenants currently living in those buildings and track them to their previous residence, iterating for six rounds and, in order to focus on local connectivity, keeping only within-metro-area moves in each round. Results are shown in Figure 2. About 20 percent of residents moving into the new buildings came from neighborhoods (census tracts) with household incomes below the median for that metro area (black dot, migration round 1); this proportion rises steadily to 40 percent in round six. Similar patterns emerge for other characteristics, suggesting strong chained mobility connections between different types of neighborhoods.""" #####c #####c ##### # # private charity and voluntarism # #####o ##### # private social spending: not the same as charity! #####o # summary Private social spending is not the same as private charity. Private social spending includes any spending by individuals on "social" goods (education, healthcare, etc.), whether voluntary or compelled (as by Obamacare's insurance mandate). # scope: private social spending private social spending (including both mandatory spending, eg employer-sponsored healthcare, and voluntary spending) constitutes ~27.5% of total US consumption of goods and services: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/720047240839954432/image3.png # effects on inequality public social spending as a percent of total consumption correlates with decreased poverty; private social spending does not: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/725505183609782293/image1.png #####c ##### # scope of private charity #####o # summaries of scope Duquette 2019: total giving slowly increased from around 1.2% of GDP in 1930 to around 2% of GDP in 2017 (or around 0.008pp per year): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073381609803362384/image.png Reich Wimer 2012: from 1969 to 2011, private charity decreased from 2.1% of GDP to 2.0% of GDP:: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636700753716576296/unknown.png # data sources for scope over time: giving usa Giving USA 1956 (1952): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/931256490906513438/default.png Giving USA 1957 (1953): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/931256551925248050/default.png Giving USA 1958 Edition (1957): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/931257466908450816/default.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/936816575707770921/default.png Giving USA Annual Report 1980 (1955-1979): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/931276081586131035/default.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/931276093829292072/default.png Giving USA Data Tables 2012 (1971-2011): Giving USA Data Tables 2014 (1973-2013): Giving USA Annual Report 2019 (1978-2018): Giving USA 2020 Infographic (2019): Giving USA 2021 Infographic (2020): # data sources for scope over time: others Andrews 1950: private charity increased substantially between 1929 and 1949; provides data by source, does not provide data by recipient: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074189982345998336/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074189990537465926/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074190190601572352/image.png Philanthropic giving Jones 1954: private charity increased substantially between 1922 and 1950; provides data by source, does not provide data by recipient: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073388865458536509/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073388876061745152/image.png # relief only [TODO] Ziliak 2004: data on two organizations outdoor relief back to 1877: Huntley 1935: Financial Trends in Organized Social Work in New York City; Cambridge HSUS Series Bg567–570 Geddes 1937: Trends in Relief Expenditures, 1910–1935. Research Monograph 10, Works Progress Administration # fraternal beneficiary societies (mutual aid) Beito 2000: payouts and proportion of workers: among a sample of working class New Yorkers, over 50% were members of fraternal institutions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1075939755319107616/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1075939831978393720/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1075992263504699472/image.png From Mutual Aid to the Welfare State: Fraternal Societies and Social Services, 1890-1967 """Although fraternal societies had features of hierarchical relief, they were primarily institutions of reciprocal relief. Jane Addams marveled at how many such organizations “honeycombed” the slums of Chicago. Similarly, Peter Roberts observed that among the Italians the “number of societies passes computation,” while according to John Daniels, the typical Jewish neighborhood on the Lower East Side of Manhattan “swarms with voluntary organizations of many kinds.” Roberts was amazed at how rapidly Eastern Europeans formed lodges. He reasoned that the communal “tendency is in the blood of the Slav, and it finds expression in organizations in America.” Another study noted that Boston’s Polish “clubs, mutual benefit fraternities, patriotic societies and political organizations are legion. All belong to several insurance societies.” 10 Fraternal and other mutual aid societies also existed among groups not usually identified with the new immigration. To Paul S. Taylor they represented “the only continuous organized life among the Mexicans in which the initiative wholly comes from the Mexicans themselves.” The tendency of Japanese Americans to join associations spurred Konrad Bercovici to conclude, probably with some exaggeration, that nearly “every Japanese belongs to one or more societies.” Associationalism was pervasive among the Chinese. They established numerous societies, including the famous “Six Companies,” which provided sick and funeral benefits and arbitrated disputes. In 1921 Robert E. Park and Herbert A. Miller wrote that “there is nothing mysterious about Chinese institutions. The more data we secure on them, the more we are impressed with their resemblance to our own.” 11 During the same period blacks developed a reputation as “joiners” that rivaled that of recent immigrants. “No racial type,” John Daniels declared, “has a stronger craving to ‘belong.’ They have clubs and societies without number and of every description.” Howard Odum wrote that lodges constituted “a vital part” of black life in the South and estimated that the membership, “paying and non-paying is nearly equal to the total church membership.” Fannie Barrier Williams echoed this assessment, proclaiming that in “nothing does the colored man live such a strenuous life as he does as a lodge man. The lodge, more than any other merely social organization, is a permanent and ever-increasing force.” 12 A recurrent theme was that blacks had a peculiar flair for the art of organization. They were, according to one writer, “more social in disposition and more absorbed in social life than white people.” Even progressive reformer Isaac Rubinow, not usually prone to acknowledge fraternal achievements, declared that “outside of the immigrant groups, Negroes represent the only class of population where the habit of mutual insurance through voluntary association has developed to the highest degree in the United States.”13""""""Studies during the period repeatedly point to the pervasiveness of life insurance ownership among the working class. The Illinois Health Insurance Commission found that 81.9 percent of wage-earning families in Chicago had at least one member with a life insurance policy. Although this tendency declined with income, 73.2 percent of the lowest income class still carried such policies.""""""In Chicago 9 of 10 black families had life insurance (table 2.4), but only 1 in 10 (table 2.3) had fraternal life policies. By the same token, more than 4 in 10 blacks in Chicago carried sick benefits. This ratio was higher than that of any other group except Lithuanians, and twice that of native-born whites.23""" Beito 2000: fear of dependence and fear of charity among American working people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086712181124501514/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086712191102763088/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086712201177464952/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1086725449511608440/image.png """In American Charities Amos G. Warner emphasized that blacks shared a palpable “dread of being assisted, especially when they think an institution will be recommended.” Similarly, John Daniels commented that “seldom does one find a Negro begging on the streets. The members of the race possess in high degree the quality of human kindness, and are ever ready to help their fellows in times of need.” Pride in self-reliance was infectious.""" Consolidated Chart 1904: Consolidated Chart 1912: Consolidated Chart 1913: TODO mutual aid societies in France: # data sources: international Charities Aid Foundation 2006 International Comparisons: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073402536687566909/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073402905031356416/image.png International comparisons of charitable giving November 2006 Charities Aid Foundation 2016 International Analysis: Griss Domestic Philanthropy: An international analysis of GDP, tax and giving #####c ##### # private charity todo #####o # todo during the Great Depression, private charity rose from ~$10 million to $70 million at its peak (+$60 million increae, 696%); public spending increased from ~$33 million to $1035 million (+$1002 million, 3130%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636703555755180039/unknown.png there was never a time when the state was uninvolved in helping the needy: [A] significant amount of research has been done over the past several decades to overturn the myth of a stateless nineteenth century and to rediscover the lost role of the state in the pre-New Deal world. [....] As the political scientist Theda Skocpol has documented, there were also multiple examples of state-issued social insurance programs before the New Deal. In the wake of the Civil War, Congress established an elaborate system of pensions for veterans. At its height in 1910, this de facto disability and old-age pension system delivered benefits to more than 25 percent of all American men over 65, accounting for a quarter of the federal government’s expenditures. Between 1911 and 1920, 40 states passed laws establishing “mothers’ pensions” for single women with children. These programs provided payments for needy widowed mothers in order to allow them to provide for their children. # todo todo #####c ##### # private charity progressivity: charity increases with income #####o # longitudinal: charity is not a damper on inequality Duquette 2018: the rich do not increase philanthropy in response to increased inequality; both in raw data and after controls, the highest-income Americans gave most to charity when income is most egalitarian: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073371568912224296/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073371955773841458/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073372049667543152/image.png """This paper has documented a robust negative association between the charitable giving of high-income households and income inequality. Whether looking at long-run data at the national level, cross-sectional micro data, state-level variation, or charity time series, giving at the top is lower when inequality is higher. This is visible in the raw data and when controlling for absolute income, tax incentives, and other confounding factors. These findings rebut the argument that the philanthropy of the rich has reduced inequality over time. Top earners have been less generous in unequal times and places.""" # longitudinal: long-term effects of charity now on charity growth Duquette 2018: the growth of nonprofits is very long-lasting; US states with more individual charity in 1917 have significantly more nonprofit expenditures in 2013, 95 years later, which actually *exacerbates* inter-region inequality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073370278614274089/image.png """Furthermore, the effect of contributions on societies is extremely long-lasting. Nonprofit organizations are dynamic strategists who stockpile resources and build endowments, with the rate of increase often exceeding their payout rate; this behavior has been most thoroughly documented for private foundations (Galle 2017) and for universities (Brown et al. 2014), but aggressive saving of donations has been observed for all major charity sectors (Duquette 2017). It follows that nonprofit goods and services will be increased only slowly by additional giving, and to the extent that foundation investments grow faster than spending, may have a greater effect in the long-run than the short-run. The data confirm this story. The two panels of figure 5 compare nonprofit spending to household charitable contributions at the state level. Panel A compares itemized charitable contributions per capita in a particular state (on the horizontal axis) to spending by all charities and foundations to file an IRS form 990 in that state; both variables are log of per-capita values for 2013. 27 There is no association between how much people gave and how much charities and foundations spent; if anything, the association is weakly negative. This comparison is in sharp contrast to the plot in figure 5B, which compares 2013 charity expenditures to per-capita giving in 1917. A positive correlation is clearly visible and large; per-capita 1917 itemized contributions explains about 30 percent of the variation in per-capita spending across states 96 years later.""" # longitudinal: why are megarich a higher share of charity? Duquette Mayo 2021: secularization may explain increasing concentration of giving, because more people are not giving small amounts of money to religious organizations: """One possible explanation is that the concentration in individual giving in fact reflects the decline in small-dollar donors. These types of donations are disproportionately religious tithes and can be linked to the growing secularization of giving. Figure 15.7 uses Giving USA data to plot real giving per household to religious and non-religious causes from 1967 to 2019. It depicts a steep rise in non-religious giving in the mid-1990s. In particular, real average giving to religious groups has remained fairly stable at around $1000 per household, while giving to non-religious organizations has more than doubled, from $1000 to $2500 per household. While both religious and non-religious giving is recorded in 1040 data, only non-religious organizations are required to file an IRS Form 990 (religious organizations are exempt).7 This difference in filing requirements means that any disappearance in small-dollar religious donors would be reflected in individual giving but not 990-filing charities’ reported receipts. Of course, this hypothesis can only be tested with donor-level data, but it offers a possible explanation.""" # progressivity by income: substantial Duquette Mayo 2021: the top 20% of tax units account for 80% of donations; the top 1% of tax units account for 40% of donations; and the top 0.01% account for 15% of donations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073452954792759367/image.png """Contributions are quite stable over time, rising gradually in real terms over the very long run, with the exception of a more rapid rate of increase during the late 1990s economic boom. From these aggregates alone, it would be easy to conclude that U.S. giving is stable, predictable, and steadily increasing without cause for concern. This apparent stability conceals important shifts in the distribution of giving activity. While scholars typically think of U.S. giving and philanthropy as a civic culture with wide participation, giving activity has become increasingly concentrated over the past 60 years. Figure 15.2 plots the share of giving by living Americans accounted for by the itemized contributions of the tax units who claim the most giving.1 These shares are computed from publicly available Internal Revenue Service (IRS) cross-sectional data for available years 1960 to 2012.2 These calculations show a rapid increase in the share of giving made by the top donors. In 1960, the top 1% of tax units made 18.9% of all charitable contributions from living individual donors. By 2012, this share had more than doubled to 43.5%.""" Duquette 2018: among the top 1%, higher income correlates with much higher charitable contributions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073372708492025877/image.png # progressivity by wealth: none Page Cook Moskowitz 2011: in 2011, the top 1% by wealth of Americans gave only .5% of their wealth to charity, regardless of wealth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/660098950186926080/unknown.png #####c ##### # private charity effects: charity does not reduce poverty and inequality, public spending does #####o # public charity's importance in the usa Duquette 2016: """Private nonprofit organizations provide many crucial services in the U.S. They grant 30 percent of bachelor’s degrees, make 69 percent of hospital admissions, and supply almost 100 percent of religious services. Private nonprofits constitute 71 percent of museums and 89 percent of homeless shelters and soup kitchens. These organizations receive substantial donor support — in 2014, charitable giving was equal to 2.1 percent of gross domestic product.1""" # public spending reduces inequality Bruenig 2018: higher social spending correlates with lower inequality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/720047251937951865/image5.png # private charity cannot poverty Lindert 2021: charity has never eliminated poverty: Making Social Spending Work """(3) Did the task of providing safety nets to cushion us against life’s many risks really have to fall to government, instead of to private charity and the extended family? [....] The answer to the third question is yes. Yes, safety nets had to be administered mainly by government. Private charity and family supports have never been up to the tasks of eliminating poverty or educating the whole population. The forces behind government social programs came together only in the last two hundred years, with almost all their advance coming in the last sixty years. Government social spending has now become worldwide, absorbing around 10 percent of world product.""" # private charity cannot solve personal medical finance Kenworthy and Igra 2021: among 4387,596 medical GoFundMe campaigns, only 12% met their donation goal, and campaigns in regions with higher uninsurance and lower incomes raised significantly less money: """Methods. We collected data on 437 596 US medical GoFundMe campaigns between 2016 and 2020. In addition to summarizing trends in campaign initiation and earnings, we used state- and county-level data to assess whether crowdfunding usage and earnings were higher in areas with greater medical debt, uninsured populations, and poverty. Results. Campaigns raised more than $2 billion from 21.7 million donations between 2016 and 2020. Returns were highly unequal, and success was low, especially in 2020: only 12% of campaigns met their goals, and 16% received no donations at all. Campaigns in 2020 raised substantially less money in areas with more medical debt, higher uninsurance rates, and lower incomes. Conclusions. Despite its popularity and portrayals as an ad-hoc safety net, medical crowdfunding is misaligned with key indicators of health financing needs in the United States. It is best positioned to help in populations that need it the least.""" # private charity scope by sector Duquette Mayo 2021: form 990-filing charities (ie, not religious) by sector over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073455882295316540/image.png """Figure 15.9 uses Form 990 data to plot the share of public support by sector according to reported receipts for the period 1989 to 2017.8 Throughout the period, education remained the sector with the largest share of public support, although this share has steadily declined.""" Page Cook Moskowitz 2011: in 2011 in the USA, the top 1% by wealth of Americans gave 6.2% of their donations (.031% of their wealth) to political causes, 6.3% (.0315%) youth development, 7.3 (.0365%) private/community foundations, 7.9% (.0395%) anti-poverty causes, 9.7% (.0485%) arts and culture, 11.6% (.058%) health, 16.3% (.0825%) religious causes, and 22.2% (.111%) to education: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/660098474515103755/unknown.png Rooney et al 2007: in 2005 in the USA, private charity towards religion and basic needs of the poor decreased with income, while charity towards the arts, education, and health increased with income: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/661554062613020672/unknown.png # private charity mostly goes toward anti-poverty sectors (including indirect anti-poverty measures) Rooney et al 2007: in 2005 in the USA, just 30.3% (upper estimate) of private charity could be focused on meeting basic needs of the poor: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/661553547992760351/unknown.png Rooney et al 2007: in 2005 in the USA, private charity focused on meeting basic needs of the poor decreased with income from 35% at <$100k/yr to 22% at >$1,000k/yr: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/661555261705814016/unknown.png # religious private charity mostly does not go to meeting basic needs of the poor Rooney et al 2007: in 2005 in the USA, just 23.9% of religious spending ultimately went to meeting basic needs of the poor: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/661556013694189610/unknown.png #####c ##### # private charity is procyclical or noncyclical (bad), public spending is countercyclical (good) #####o # private charity is procyclical (reduces in recessions: bad) Reich Wimer 2012: private charity stays around 2% of GDP: private charity is procyclical -- it declines during recessions and increases during expansions -- meaning that private charity increases recession depth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636700753716576296/unknown.png """It is perhaps reassuring that there’s no evidence of increasing stinginess in times of need. Then again, neither is there evidence of increased largesse, which is problematic because need is countercyclical. Indeed, because needs increase dramatically as the economy contracts, our reliance on charity and the nonprofit sector contains some built-in structural challenges, at least relative to other countries that can more readily engage in direct governmental spending when additional needs must be met.""" # public spending is countercyclical (increases in recessions: good) TODO: in 2008-09, public spending jumped from .1 to 2.2% of GDP: in contrast, automatic stabilizers are countercyclical -- they increase during recessions and decrease during expansions -- meaning that public spending decreases recession depth: During 2009, while private charity collapsed, automatic stabilizers expanded rapidly, from 0.1 percent of GDP to 2.2 percent of GDP—or a number roughly akin to all charitable giving in the United States. This was directly targeted at areas that suffered from the most unemployment, and helped those most in need—efforts that, as we’ve seen, private charity does only partially. As Goldman Sachs economists concluded, this shift made a crucial difference, and, alongside the government’s efforts to prevent the collapse of the banking sector and the Federal Reserve’s expansion of monetary policy, was a core reason the Great Recession didn’t become a second Great Depression. #####c ##### # private charity and public clout #####o # polling on importance of charity 2020 July Ipsos poll: 81% of Americans agreed with the statement that charitable foundations play an important role in society: 2022 June Ipsos poll: 82% of Americans agreed with the statement that charitable foundations play an important role in society: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073041094037741568/image.png 2022 July YouGov poll: among US adult citizens, 33% say "private charity" has "the greatest responsibility for helping people who are struggling", against 38% who say "the government", and 11% who say "neither": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073049287103086673/image.png # super-rich use charity to convert financial capital into social capital Maclean et al 2021: elites trade capital into other forms of capital through charity: """Elite philanthropy thus serves as a vehicle for capital conversion as the expenditure of cash or near-cash yields a return in the form of cultural, social or symbolic capital (Brown & Ferris, 2007), answering the question raised most succinctly by Boulding (1962, p. 60): what is ‘the motivation for genuinely unilateral transfers, that is, a quid for which there is no quo’? Elite philanthropy, we suggest, is rarely a ‘pure gift’ motivated solely by altruism; rather, it represents a means of converting surplus funds into prized alternative forms of capital. [....] Through philanthropy, elites enhance their legitimacy and prestige while gaining access to valuable networks. This enhances their ability to achieve personal objectives through the exercise of an increasingly extensive policymaking role in society (Ball, 2008; Villadsen, 2007). [....] In her study of 194 US elite philanthropists, Goss (2016) found that 104 of them actively sought sway over policy by funding reformist research and advocacy organizations. The most popular cause, supported by 44 donors, was public education reform, championing parental choice and more extensive private-sector engagement.""" # super-rich are often geniuses at marketing Stiglitz 2012: inventors aren't rewarded with success; business and marketing geniuses are: """By looking at those at the top of the wealth distribution, we can get a feel for the nature of this aspect of America’s inequality. Few are inventors who have reshaped technology, or scientists who have reshaped our understandings of the laws of nature.Think of Alan Turing, whose genius provided the mathematics underlying the modern computer. Or of Einstein. Or of the discoverers of the laser (in which Charles Townes played a central role) 16 or John Bardeen, Walter Brattain, and William Shockley, the inventors of transistors. 17 Or of Watson and Crick, who unraveled the mysteries of DNA, upon which rests so much of modern medicine. None of them, who made such large contributions to our well-being, are among those most rewarded by our economic system. Instead, many of the individuals at the top of the wealth distribution are, in one way or another, geniuses at business. Some might claim, for instance, that Steve Jobs or the innovators of search engines or social media were, in their way, geniuses. Jobs was number 110 on the Forbes list of the world’s wealthiest billionaires before his death, and Mark Zuckerberg was 52. But many of these “geniuses” built their business empires on the shoulders of giants, such as Tim Berners-Lee, the inventor of the World Wide Web, who has never appeared on the Forbes list. Berners-Lee could have become a billionaire but chose not to—he made his idea available freely, which greatly speeded up the development of the Internet.18 A closer look at the successes of those at the top of the wealth distribution shows that more than a small part of their genius resides in devising better ways of exploiting market power and other market imperfections—and, in many cases, finding better ways of ensuring that politics works for them rather than for society more generally.""" #####c ##### # public charity: crowding out or crowding in from government support? #####o # summary This literature examines whether *direct* government support of a particular charity crowds out private donations to that charity. It finds that this crowd-out effect exists, but its size is hard to quantify. A second crowd-out effect, of government giving toward a particular *cause* (such as social spending toward the poor) does not exist. # summary of meta-analyses: evidence inconclusive, leans crowd-out Saeri et al 2022: there are two studies on crowding out and crowding in (de Wit and Bekkers 2017, Lu 2016); both found evidence leaning toward crowding out, but evidence was overall heterogenous and inconclusive: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073461197732589658/image.png What Works to Increase Charitable Donations? A Meta-Review with Meta-Meta-Analysis """Crowding out: Side effects from government funding that might decrease donations from the public (‘crowding out’), or attract people to donate (‘crowding in’)? de Wit and Bekkers (2017) Y 54 NR On average, $1 increase in government support leads to $0.17 decrease in private charitable donation size across all studies. In experiments, a $1 increase leads to a $0.64 decrease in private donation size. In archival or survey data, a $1 increase leads to a $0.06 increase in private donation size. Overall, no decisive evidence for government support to crowd out private charitable contributions""""""Lu (2016) N 60 637 No overall effects of government donations on private contributions (unweighted mean = .03). Crowding out is more likely in studies that control for endogeneity (e.g., those that use fixed effects or instrumental variables). Regardless, the effect sizes were too small to support either crowding-out or crowding-in.""""""Neither review found decisive evidence for crowding out. A subset of the studies in the reviews had higher internal validity—they either controlled for confounding statistically or via experimental designs. These studies were more likely to suggest that government funding reduces private donations (de Wit & Bekkers, 2017; Lu, 2016), but given the small, heterogeneous effect sizes, the evidence for a relationship is weak.Neither review found decisive evidence for crowding out. A subset of the studies in the reviews had higher internal validity—they either controlled for confounding statistically or via experimental designs. These studies were more likely to suggest that government funding reduces private donations (de Wit & Bekkers, 2017; Lu, 2016), but given the small, heterogeneous effect sizes, the evidence for a relationship is weak.""" # meta-analyses Lu 2016: studies which controlled for endogeneity estimated substantially larger negative effects of government grants on private donations (crowd-out); overall evidence was inconclusive: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073469311580110918/image.png """Third, the exploration of government grants and private donations in nonprofits has to address the concern for endogeneity, that is, government funding and private donations may be jointly determined (Andreoni and Payne 2003 ; Knight 2002 ; Ribar and Wilhelm 2002 ). For example, nonprofits with effective fundraising may solicit more funding from both sources. Without any statistical control for the endogeneity problem (such as fixed effects and instrumental variables), the estimated relationships could be biased. Thus, a moderator was included in the meta-regression to test this argument. The results from both models underscore the imperative of endogeneity correction: the average effect size is markedly smaller from models embracing some endogeneity-corrected estimates by about .04 ( p < .05). In future studies, the mere use of regular regressions without any adaptation of endogeneity may overstate the impact of government grants.""" De Wit Bekkers 2016: among experimental studies, the effect of a $1 increase in government funding near $0.5 loss of private funding; but overall estimates are inconclusive: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073471499010310164/image.png # heterogeneity across donors and across sectors De Wit Bekkers van Groenou 2016: using changes in government support AND media coverage of changes in government support (which should be required to crowd-out or crowd-in charity spending), finds that increased coverage leads to less support from educated people; and among social/nature charities but not international charities; no differences between low-altruism and high-altruism value people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073465537339854848/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073465587772170250/image.png # crowd-out of general government giving does NOT exist Lindert 2004: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1075869469668282418/image.png Growing Public """Yet history clearly rejects the notion that government aid to the poor just crowds out private aid. The easiest way to see this is to look again at Figure 3.5 and Table 3.4. Back in the late 1920s, when government aid to the poor was still only one-sixth of 1 percent of national product, private charity to the poor was the same. The subsequent rise of government “welfare” aid to around 4 percent of gross national product (GNP) by 1995 could not just crowd out private charity, because there was only one-sixth of 1 percent of GNP in private philanthropy that could have been crowded out in the first place. In fact, private charity to the poor rose slightly as a share of donor’s incomes during the expansion of the United States’ tax-based government welfare spending. Before the late 1920s private charity toward the poor had always been negligible, though we lack systematic national figures. It could hardly have been otherwise, so strong was the U.S. opposition to charity.""" #####c ##### # public policy on private charity #####o # policy proposals Duquette 2020: proposes a two-tier credit system aimed at minimizing revenue lost and maximizing charitable contributions, especially from the very wealthy; note that donations from the wealthy and government revenue are NOT at all 1:1 with respect to reducing poverty: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073376787809189928/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073376923700428900/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073377153246314566/image.png # taxes and charitable contributions Duquette 2016: exploits longitudinal state-level cost of charity differences following the Tax Reform Act of 1986 to estimate that the elasticity of charity is between -3 and -5 (ie, 1pp increase in charity cost yields 3pp-5pp decrease of charity provided): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073451259970990242/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073451121139535952/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073451109764567081/image.png """Estimates for these regressions are reported in table 2A; point estimates of the elasticity range from -3.5 to -5. Column 1 reports the basic regression, which finds an elasticity of contributions of -4.5 with respect to the tax cost of giving. Similar elasticities occur with the inclusion of region-by-year effects (-5.0), macroeconomic controls (-4.0) or both (-3.5). Standard errors are reported in parentheses and clustered by state to account for serial correlation within state. All estimates are statistically different from zero at the five percent level. A test of the hypothesis that these coefficients is equal to -1 is rejected at the 10 percent level in all specifications, and at the 5 percent level in columns 2, 3 and 4.""" ^ Duquett 2014: earlier results from above: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073462105736478780/image.png Peloza Steel 2005: meta-analysis: across numerous moderator variables, the elasticity of charitable contributions with respect to the cost of charity (from tax credit/deduction support) is usually below -1, suggesting that tax-supported charitable contributions are "treasury-efficient" in terms of total dollars spent on charity; elasticities did not vary by income: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1073438405490380881/image.png """The effects of tax rates and income on charitable contributions have been studied extensively. However, the results to date span a wide range of samples, examine a diverse set of variables and data sources, and often present conflicting findings. Estimates for price elasticity range from –7.07 (Robinson 1990) to +.12 (Wu and Ricketts 1999). Duquette (1999, p. 16) states that “most studies have found giving to be highly price elastic,” whereas other researchers have presented evidence that strongly challenges the traditional consensus that tax incentives are a powerful stimulus to giving (Bristol 1985; Steinberg 1990).""""""In general, our results support the hypothesis that tax deductions for charitable giving are treasury efficient. That is, on average, a decrease in $1 in the cost of giving can be expected to result in more than $1 being donated to charity through personal philanthropy. However, the treasury efficiency of charitable donations is only one issue for consideration, albeit an important one. Previous researchers have examined the benefits of replacing government support for charities with individual support. For example, Cordes (2001, p. 3) notes the correlation between cash donations and volunteerism and argues that a system encouraging more individual donations would also “help foster civic virtues that are needed to maintain a ‘civil society.’” Others have argued that charity is supported most efficiently through private donations and that encouraging individual donations allows for consumer choice (Brooks 2004). The current analysis highlighted several issues in the study of the effects of tax on individual charitable giving.""" #####c #####c ##### # # social spending: redistribution is good and lifting people from poverty is good # #####o ##### # general facts on welfare and social spending #####o # taxation vs predistribution Inequality before and after taxes are tightly correlated: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/993267210011283516/unknown.png # scope: detailed, usa, recent amount and type of welfare received by a chicago parent with two children, by income, in Chicago: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/631217671869956169/unknown.png # deservedness the vast majority of welfare is deserved by its recipients: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641981492653850634/2-10-12bud-f1.png # demographics demographics of food stamp recipients: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643149658595655680/FT_13.png # non-wasteful consumption (see section in "causes of inequality and immobility") those on welfare spend much less on education and on food away from home than those not on welfare: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/631218980647993374/unknown.png # historical emergence Lindert 2014: social spending was small for most of human history: """Private philanthropy continued to be modest, and only a small share of it was directed toward the poor and those in bad health. So we conclude from data for the United States, one of the few countries to quantify charitable giving, and perhaps also the country where the most was given privately. Table 14.3 illustrates with estimates of the shares of GDP contributed privately in 1927 and 1970. Even if all philanthropy had gone to “welfare” in 1927, that would have delivered only 1.52 percent of GDP, a lower share than England and Wales local governments gave to their poor a century earlier under the Old Poor Law. As Table 14.3 further reminds us, very little of US philanthropy went, or still goes, to the poor. In 1927, only a tenth of a percent of GDP went to “youth services, welfare, and race relations.” The parts of other categories received by the poor and needy were probably offset by the parts of this category they did not receive. The private contributions to “welfare” were much smaller than the amounts contributed to churches, to parochial schools, and to higher education (e.g. the Ivy League or Stanford).""""""We must return to the task of explaining some glaring historical facts that stand out in Figure 14.3: Why was there no significant social insurance or social assistance for most of human history, and why was the eventual rise so unequal among countries?""" van Bavel Rijpma 2015: social spending did not emerge from the industrial revolution, but the class struggle that resulted from it: """After c. 1800, poor relief increasingly became the domain of government, as did decisions in the political arena in other countries too. This initially caused a drop in the share of GDP spent on relief. In the period c. 1750–1850, the combination of French conquests with Enlightenment and liberal ideas about poverty resulted in policies directed against corporations, the abolition of guilds and confraternities, secularization, and general criticism of poor relief. With few initiatives by governments to replace the old systems, social spending on the Continent around the middle of the nineteenth century was lower than before. For this reason, the nineteenth century can give a misleading picture about the pre-history of the welfare state. For instance, Lindert correctly shows low levels of poor relief around 1800 and a slow rise only from the late nineteenth century on.131 However, the long-run view of this article shows that the first half of the nineteenth century was an exception and had lower levels of poor relief than before. Moreover, pre-industrial figures are not necessarily much lower than those for 1850–1950. The real break in social assistance only came about with the development of the modern welfare state in the second half of the twentieth century. The industrial revolution and the associated rises in productivity in themselves did not cause a fundamental shift in this regard.""" # voting empowered social spending Lindert 2004: social spending emerged in Europe after elite democracies became full democracies: summary: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1138498987599593602/image.png Growing Public """The spread of voting rights had nonlinear effects on social spending before World War II. Chapters 4, 5, and 7 trace the effects of switching from nondemocracies to elite democracies and then to full democracies, with both genders and all economic classes permitted to vote. Part of that history comes from written accounts and part from a systematic statistical analysis of twenty-one countries in the periods 1880–1930 and 1962–1995. For social transfers, such as aid to the poor, the elderly, and the sick, elite democracies tended to offer no more than the average nondemocracy, when other things are held equal. The elite democracies, in which fewer than 40 percent of men had the vote, were actually more opposed to overall social transfers, and to public pensions, than the average authoritarian nondemocracy. Only basic poor relief was given out as much in the elite democracies as in the average nondemocratic monarchy of that time. More dramatic were the effects of spreading the vote from an elite to nearly all adults. Once the right to vote was extended to poorer men, the stage was set for Lloyd George’s assault on Britain’s rich just before World War I and for corresponding political transitions in other countries. When that happened toward the end of the nineteenth century and the start of the twentieth, comprehensive nationwide social insurance programs began to emerge. Extending political voice to all adults raised spending on public schools as well.""" Lindert 2004: social spending emerged in Europe after elite democracies became full democracies: statistical evidence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1138499477334925318/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1138500610895917056/image.png # why didn't private charity take off? Lindert 2014: private charity remained small because charity is motivated by "warm glow", not a desire to solve poverty: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1138497477637578752/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1138497620491382874/image.png """If private giving rates and the prices of giving moved little, while incomes rose significantly across the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, we are left with three explanations of the lateness and gradualness of long-run change in private giving as a share of income. Either: (1) the income effects were in fact large, but their stimulus to giving was largely cancelled by exogenous shifts in tastes away from charity; or (2) the income effects were in fact large, but the rise of the welfare state crowded out what would have been a large rise in private giving by altruists caring about the total amounts that the needy received (induced shift in tastes); or (3) the income elasticities were in fact small and the affluent never felt inclined to give much. Seeing no historical reason why tastes should have shifted away from charity at the same time that incomes accelerated across the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, I tentatively doubt the first explanation. The second option – large income effects were offset by crowding out from the welfare state – would have worked if there had been historical evidence of a rise in private giving during a long period when incomes were growing and there was no welfare state. Yet American experience finds a large rise in per capita income from, say, 1800 to 1927 with no appreciable private giving either at the start or at the end of that period. Accepting the third explanation fits with that “warm glow” model favored by the present-day microeconomic literature. Over the centuries, people have given privately because they gain utility from the act of giving, and the amounts they gave did not respond much to competing supplies of aid to the targeted group (i.e. no crowding out of altruists). To the “warm glow” theory, this simple reading of history suggests a friendly amendment: The warm glow is achieved by very low levels of giving. Perhaps over the centuries, donors have gained satisfaction by giving at least something, and felt no need to “give until it hurts.” That would help to explain why there have always been so many charities, with so little closure of poverty gaps.""" Lindert 2014: private charity remained small: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1164148929278001223/image.png?ex=6542292d&is=652fb42d&hm=76204e72e13c6903c040aa0fe69cd192787f7f82b24175636acc701d11bc2c18& """Before the late eighteenth century, there was relatively little in the way of social insurance and social help for the needy, despite all the books and articles written about the institutions of early aid. To be sure, some private institutions of mutual aid did insure their members, conforming to the tendency toward social affinity, the exchange of help with one’s own social group. To judge from the few data we have, and to conjecture that absence of data tended to betray absence of generous aid, private insurance and mutual aid seemed to have reached their highest levels in the late eighteenth century in England and Wales and the Netherlands, as shown by a few estimates in Table 14.2. Marco van Leeuwen’s important recent study of private Dutch insurance pools in the second half of that century shows significant benefits paid out for burial expenses, sickness benefit, medical costs, widowhood, and old age. For those receiving them, pension and old age benefits ranged from 20 to 50 percent of the typical wage. Yet those covered represented a small fringe of society, mainly middle-class members of large craft guilds in the main cities. Their restrictiveness and small size was one means of avoiding adverse selection.13""" ^ source for above: Lindert 1998: # effects on growth: on net, all programs combined have a ~zero effect on growth Lindert 2004: between 1880 and 1990, the correlation between social spending (% of GDP) and either GDP growth or GDP level is essentially zero: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1075229613296472114/image.png Growing Public """Yet the history of economic growth is unkind to this natural suspicion. Neither simple raw correlations nor a careful weighing of the apparent sources of growth shows any clearly negative net effect of all that redistribution. Table 1.3 dramatizes the overall puzzle. Nine decades of historical experience fail to show that transferring a larger share of GDP from taxpayers to transfer recipients has a negative correlation with either the level or the rate of growth of GDP per person. The average correlation is essentially zero. If we pooled all the decades of international experience, instead of just averaging them, we could find that social transfers had positive correlations with both the level and the growth of GDP per person. The strongly positive correlation with the level of GDP per person underlines the Robin Hood paradox: Taking all historical experiences as a single experiment, the richer the country, the more it tends to transfer to the poor, the sick, the elderly, and the unemployed.18 So far, any negative feedback from social programs to productivity levels, or productivity growth, remains well hidden. The puzzle deepens a bit when we switch from GDP per person, the usual measure of income and productivity, to GDP per hour worked, a better measure of labor productivity. If higher social spending dampens incentives to invest and to raise labor productivity, this should make the higher-spending countries fall further behind the lower-spending leaders like the United States and Japan. Yet as others have noted, countries like the Netherlands, France, and Germany have caught up with the United States in output per labor hour. In fact, in GDP per hour worked, the United States ranked below eight other countries in 1992. Six of these eight countries with higher output per hour worked were continental welfare states.19""" #####c ##### # data sources #####o # very long run (since ~1500) -- also includes private charity in very long run van Bavel Rijpma 2015: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1075238794841817088/image.png """We have also chosen to omit subsidies for education and insurance schemes (for example, for sickness or burial). The latter, when they existed, were mostly organized in a guild structure, and they were predominantly aimed at the middle classes who held guild membership and could afford to pay the contributions, rather than at the poor.12""""""In the wave of horizontal association and community formation in the eleventh to thirteenth centuries, new charitable organizations emerged, mostly managed by laymen. This was a formative period of institutionalized poor relief, sometimes labelled ‘a revolution of charity’.14 In the villages of the countryside, people organized poor boxes, and the formalization of commons and other organizations of communal agriculture offered the poor access to land or its fruits. Village by-laws across western Europe, in England from the thirteenth century onwards, formalized the right of the rural poor to forage on the common wastelands, to graze one or two animals on the common meadows, or to reap the leftovers or fallen grain after the harvest.15 The latter practice, called gleaning, was important in grain-growing areas where open fields were predominant. To the extent that these rights were not directly connected to landownership they should be considered as part of relief.""""""Unlike modern welfare arrangements, the role of public authorities was limited to some degree of control over charities and hospitals, and they rarely financed poor relief. In Italy and in the Netherlands, governments offered very little direct assistance.23 In England, forerunners of the first poor rates financed through local taxation probably existed before the late sixteenth-century poor laws, but these were not yet systematically collected and only supplemented other forms of relief.24 Relief organizations were largely financed out of the revenues from their assets. A sample of charitable and religious foundations in the late medieval Low Countries showed they obtained on average two-thirds of their income from asset returns.25 Other studies have uncovered similar funding patterns across the Continent in the pre-industrial period.26 Direct donations and taxation played a small role in financing poor relief in this period.""" # semi long run (since ~1850) Lindert 2021: Making Social Spending Work Lindert 2004: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074262751645532181/image.png Growing Public Lindert 1994: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074262739347832882/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074978349736263721/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074978396787966042/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074978433064501288/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074978460541390868/image.png The Rise of Social Spending, 1880-1930; see tables 1B-1E for sector-specific data Lindert 1998: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084592589786841159/image.png Poor relief before the Welfare State: Britain versus the Continent, 1780-1880; see also Table 2: Parameters of Government-related poor relief various countries and years up to 1880 Tanzi Schuknecht 2000: see tables in Chapter 2: # long run (since ~1950) OECD 1985: social expenses have substantially risen between 1960 and 1981: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074453516657119302/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074501913313288283/oecd1985AnnexC.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074531872786354226/oecd1985AnnexCWhiteSmallNominal.jpg Social expenditure, 1960-1990: problems of growth and control Hedberg Karlsson Haggqvist: Espuelas 2012: Lindert 2014: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1074090210943565935/image.png The Cambridge history of Capitalism // Private Welfare and the Welfare State """Figure 14.2. Public and private assistance to the needy in the United States, 1850–2009 Notes: “Public aid” = Poor relief, 1850–1870: US Superintendent of the Census, Compendium of the Ninth Census (1872): 530–537. These figures probably include some public subsidies to private charities. All public expenditures (federal, state, and local), 1902–1970: Bicentennial Hist. Stats., Series Y533–Y566. GNP in current prices: Carter et al. (2006), Series Ca10, collated by Richard Sutch. For alternative estimates of public welfare, health-sanitation, and education for 1890, 1902, 1913, and later dates, see Musgrave and Culbertson (1953: 114). The Musgrave-Culbertson estimates were used in Lindert (1994). Further footnote on public aid 1995–2009 = The Census Bureau’s own footnote explains: “Consists of federal benefits (food stamp benefits, Supplemental Security Income, direct relief, earned income credit, payments to nonprofit institutions, aid to students, and payment for medical services for retired military personnel and their dependents at nonmilitary facilities) and state benefits (Medicare care, Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Supplemental Security Income, general assistance, energy assistance, emergency assistance, and medical insurance premium payments on behalf of indigents). Financed from state and federal general revenues.” Private philanthropy for the needy, alternative series = (a) For 1930–1970, featuring “Youth services, welfare, race relations” expenditures: Bicentennial HSUS, Series H405–H411. For 1955, 1960–2009, the Giving USA series, with these changing series: (b) “welfare” for 1955, 1960–1962, but not usable for 1963–1967 because it lost health expenditures for the “welfare” population; (c) “human resources (welfare)” for 1964–1975, now excluding donations to welfare agencies for health spending; (d) “social welfare” for 1960, 1965, 1970, 1973–1981; (e) “Human service” and “public/social benefit” for 1970, 1975–2009. Private welfare services =Private social expenditure, welfare services (Historical Statistics of the United States, 2006). Not specifically targeted at those below the poverty line, or those with disabilities.""" #####c ##### # policy proposals: basic income #####o # progressivity even a flat income tax and flat basic income would together be very progressive: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566260382369447956/unknown.png # economics benefits a basic income would grow the economy by 13%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/455938574337179678/unknown.png According to the Levy Model, the largest cash program - $1,000 for all adults annually - expands the economy by 12.56% over the baseline after eight years. After eight years of enactment, the stimulative effects of the program dissipate and GDP growth returns to the baseline forecast, but the level of output remains permanently higher. # social benefits Calnitsky 2016: compared to welfare recipients, basic income recipients had much lower social stigma: they were much less likely to report problems with the community and less likely to report hiding their status: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566259356790947840/unknown.png # health benefits for basic income recipients, hospitalization rates (due to injury etc.) fell by 8.5%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566257468062302218/unknown.png basic income experiments reported increased birth weight, decreased hospitalization time, decreased chronic disease duration: basic income experiments report increasing child cognitive outcomes: # psychological benefits children of parents who received a $4,000/yr income boost from a Cherokee casino (similar to a basic income) had significantly lower rates of substance abuse and of psychiatric disorders that persisted to adulthood: As adults, significantly fewer Indians than non-Indians had a psychiatric disorder (106 Indians [weighted 30.2%] vs 337 non-Indians [weighted 36.0%]; odds ratio [OR], 0.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30-0.72; P=.001), particularly alcohol and cannabis abuse, dependence, or both. The youngest age-cohort of Indian youth had the longest exposure to the family income. Interactions between race/ethnicity and age cohort were significant. Planned comparisons showed that fewer of the youngest Indian age-cohort had any psychiatric disorder (31.4%) than the Indian middle cohort (41.7%; OR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.24-0.78; P=.005) or oldest cohort (41.3%; OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.51-0.94; P=.01) or the youngest non-Indian cohort (37.1%; OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.48-0.90; P=.008). children of parents who received a $4,000/yr income boost from a Cherokee casino (similar to a basic income) had significantly lower rates of behavioral disorders and higher rates of conscientiousness: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542426079936118784/unknown.png The size of the effects is relatively large; the effect reduces behavioral disorders by 26.7 % of a standard deviation and increases conscientiousness by 42.8 % of a standard deviation. children of parents who received a $4,000/yr income boost from a Cherokee casino (similar to a basic income) had significantly better behavior, especially those who lived for a longer time period under the income gain: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542496070480035840/unknown.png Main effects of race were not significant, but planned comparisons among the 3 age-cohorts showed that the youngest Indian cohort had significantly fewer diagnoses than either of the older cohorts, between whom there were no differences. The youngest Indians also had fewer disorders than the youngest non-Indians. The youngest Indians were significantly less likely to report delinquent friends in adulthood. #####c ##### # social spending and business formation #####o # social spending enables business formation: evidence from social health insurance Olds 2016a: public health insurance (CHIP and SCHIP) substantially (15%) increased the rate of new business formation by reducing the risk of starting up a business: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072368852102553650/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072369162590097448/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072366875918483476/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072368102089703486/image.png """Table 4 breaks down the self-employment results by previous businesses status, using the falsification procedure described above. The effect for people who already have businesses 1.3 percentage points, suggesting SCHIP caused an insignificant 1.7% increase in the pre-policy yearly firm survival rate of 74%.12 The effect on non-business-owning households is 0.6 percentage points, a 12% increase in the yearly firm birth rate of 4.7%. The marginal effects are actually highest for the incorporated firm birth rate, which increased by 0.27 percentage points (26% higher than the baseline). This was entirely driven by new firms rather than newly-incorporated existing firms, whose numbers actually fell as a result of the policy.""""""Public health insurance may encourage self-employment by protecting households from the risk of catastrophic medical debt if they start a business and lose coverage (the risk channel) and by freeing up assets for use as loan collateral or start-up funds (the credit channel). I find the strongest evidence for the risk channel: households who did not enroll in SCHIP but were otherwise eligible saw significant increases in self-employment, even though their budget constraint had not shifted. The importance of uninsured risk in constraining firm formation and expansion is consistent with work in the development literature on barriers faced by low-income firms (Bianchi and Bobba, 2013; Karlan et al., 2012).""" ^ Olds 2016a: these were not just side projects, but were often incorporated firms (36% more likely than before) that substantially raised firm-starter income (12% higher share of household income): """Another important concern is the quality of these new businesses: are they highquality ventures that contribute to job growth and innovation, or household side-projects that supplement income but do not hire employees? Without more detailed data on payroll, receipts or long-term survival rates it is difficult to answer this question, but Table 5 in the appendix provides some suggestive evidence. Researchers often use incorporation as a measure of entrepreneur “seriousness” or quality (Levine and Rubinstein, 2013), so Table 5 repeats the specifications above using a household’s ownership of an incorporated business as the outcome variables. The effects on incorporation are large: SCHIP caused a 1.5 percentage point increase in incorporation ownership, a 36% increase from the pre-policy baseline (4.1% of households had an incorporated firm before the policy). Since the overall increase in self-employment was only 15%, SCHIP disproportionately encouraged people to open incorporated businesses, shifting the overall composition of firms toward more “serious” ventures. Table 5 also looks at the percentage of income that self-employed households derive from their businesses as another gauge for seriousness. The business share of income rose by 4.2 percentage points as a result of SCHIP, a 12% increase from the baseline.""" Fairlie Kapur Gates 2011: when people turn 65 and become eligible for Medicaid, they become substantially more likely to own a business (in ways not explainable by other variables); employer-provided health insurance may cause an "entrepreneurship lock": Is employer-based health insurance a barrier to entrepreneurship? """Our estimates provide some evidence that “entrepreneurship lock” exists, which raises concerns that the bundling of health insurance and employment may create an inefficient level of business creation.""" argument for Medicare For All M4A # social spending enables business formation: evidence from social food income Olds 2016b: social food income (SNAP / FSP) substantially (3-5%) increased business startups among recipient households: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072371149369004102/image.png Food Stamp Entrepreneurs / Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program / Food Stamps Program """Using these strategies I find that becoming eligible for SNAP increased a household’s likelihood of enrollment by nearly 3-5 percentage points. Newly-eligible households were also around 20% more likely to own a business. Most of the increase in self-employment is the result of new firm birth—which grew by 12%—rather than increased firm survival. These tend to be high-quality firms: the marginal effects were particularly strong for incorporated ventures, with the probability of owning an incorporated business increasing by 16% as a result of the policy. The expansion of SNAP also increased the length of the work-year by 2.5% and the work-week by 5% relative to the baseline, a labor supply increase equivalent to 19.6 million full-time workers. There is little evidence that observable characteristics differ between treatment and control groups using the partitioned RD method. Finally, the results are driven entirely by newly eligible non-enrollees. Taken together, these results strongly suggest the presence of a large population of would-be entrepreneurs held back by uninsured risk.""" #####c #####c ##### # # healthcare: public single provider (left of public single payer) # #####o ##### # medicare for all #####o # expense: good evidence Cai 2020: most estimates suggest that shifting to single payer would decrease net spending on healthcare by around 3% of healthcare spending (about 0.5% of GDP): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/789660535989862470/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/993554601922019328/unknown.png urban institute: https://www.crfb.org/papers/primary-care-estimating-democratic-candidates-health-plans # expense: bad evidence a libertarian think-tank found that Medicare For All would decrease national health expenditures by 250 billion dollars per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/473903012851613696/unknown.png [5671 - 5307 - 846 - 482 - 1572]/(2032-2022) = 253.6 billion saved per year ^ note that this quote is somewhat misleading: the authors argue that the above table makes bad assumptions (because they, as libertarians, disagree with them) and that a M4A plan would increase health expenditures. # efficacy O'Hanlon 2016: most studies show that VA hospitals do better on safety and effectiveness than private hospitals: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/594583609978126346/unknown.png Safety: Mortality, Morbidity, Complications, Other Safety Measures; Effectivness: Outpatient Care, Non-Ambulatory Care, Medication Management, Availability of Services, End-of-Life Care Blay Jr. DeLancey Hewitt 2017: VA hospitals did better than non-VA hospitals on 6 of 9 patient safety indicators, did better on mortality and readmissions, did worse on 4 of 10 patient experience indicators, and did worse on 4 of 9 behavioral health: """Veterans Affairs hospitals had better outcomes than non-VA hospitals for 6 of 9 PSIs. There were no significant differences for the other 3 PSIs (Table 1). In addition, VA hospitals had better outcomes for all the mortality and readmissions metrics (Table 1). However, on the patient experience measures, non-VA hospitals scored better overall than VA hospitals for nursing and physician communication, responsiveness, quietness, pain management, and on whether the patient would recommend the hospital to others (Table 2). For behavioral health measures, non-VA hospitals did better on 4 of 9 measures, while VA hospitals did better on 1 of 9 measures (Table 2).""" # satisfaction Gallup 2015: Americans with state healthcare plans are more satisfied than those with private plans, including active and past military members: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/730138959828615168/rhqsnyelsk6x4jxswxqvjg.png #####c ##### # healthcare spending: aggregate US vs world #####o # measures the US spends as much of its GDP on just private healthcare as other countries do for both private AND public healthcare: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640905968686727169/unknown.png US healthcare spending has been growing faster than that of any European country for the past half century: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640906044918202368/unknown.png including compulsory payments (including employer and employee payments for healthcare, pensions, etc.), the USA actually has one of the highest labor taxation rates in the OECD: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640905893696765952/Labor-Taxes-and-Compulsory-Payments-as-Percent-of-Average-Wage-2.png since 1960, federal and state governments have risen from paying 20% to 45% of national health expenditure: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571189206936977438/unknown.png # causes: prices most cost increases are due to price increases rather than utilization increases: Since 2000, (1) price (especially of hospital charges [+4.2%/y], professional services [+3.6%/y], drugs and devices [+4.0%/y], and administrative costs [+5.6%/y]), not demand for services or aging of the population, produced 91% of cost increases; (2) personal out-of-pocket spending on insurance premiums and co-payments have declined from 23% to 11%; and (3) chronic illnesses account for 84% of costs overall among the entire population, not only of the elderly. Americans receive less on virtually every metric of "real" care delivered, yet pay more: """As shown in Exhibits 4 and 5 , in 2000 the United States had fewer physicians per 1,000 population, physician visits per capita, acute care beds per capita, hospital admissions per 1,000 population, and acute care days per capita than the median OECD country. These simple comparisons suggest that Americans are receiving fewer real resources than are people in the median OECD country.""""""The researchers estimated that Americans paid 40 percent more per capita than Germans did but received 15 percent fewer real health care resources. A similar comparison revealed that the U.S. system used about 30 percent more inputs per capita than was used in the British system and spent about 75 percent more per capita on higher prices.""" since 1960, price increases have represented >50% of each year's increase in national health expenditure: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571189074241781763/unknown.png # causes: wastage drug companies waste medicine (about $765 billion per year) in unnecessary treatments: https://www.vox.com/videos/2017/10/18/16496590/how-drug-companies-waste-medicine # causes: administration administrative spending as a portion of overall healthcare spending is 8% in the US (compared to a mean of 3% for other high-income countries): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/472872275402817556/unknown.png overhead takes 31% of US healthcare but just 17% of Canadian healthcare spending: In 1999, health administration costs totaled at least $294.3 billion in the United States, or $1,059 per capita, as compared with $307 per capita in Canada. After exclusions, administration accounted for 31.0 percent of health care expenditures in the United States and 16.7 percent of health care expenditures in Canada. Canada's national health insurance program had overhead of 1.3 percent; the overhead among Canada's private insurers was higher than that in the United States (13.2 percent vs. 11.7 percent). Providers' administrative costs were far lower in Canada. in 2014, administrative expenses (including fraud and abuse control expenses) were $8.8 billion of $613.3 billion total expenditures (1.43%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640291423165349903/unknown.png in 2017, administrative costs and profits accounted for $144.1 billion of $1183.9 billion (12.2%) for private insurance, $36.1 of $705.9 (5.11%) for Medicare, and $33.6 of $581.9 (5.77%) for Medicaid: (NHE tables, Table 4) administrative costs were 13% overall (11% for large group plans, 16% for small group plans, and 20% for individual plans) and profits were 2% overall (2% for large group plans, 3% for small group plans, and -1% for nongroup plans) for private insurance from 2010-2012: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640271316188004373/unknown.png # fraud: private vs public fraud elimination has been effective: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/543707411131924482/20140531_USC154.png Federal prosecutors had over 2,000 health-fraud probes open at the end of 2013. A Medicare “strike force”, which was formed in 2007, boasts of seven nationwide “takedowns”. In the latest, on May 13th, 90 people, including 16 doctors, were rounded up in six cities—more than half of them in Miami, the capital city of medical fraud. One doctor is alleged to have fraudulently charged for $24m of kit, including 1,000 power wheelchairs. the reason Medicare has high fraud rates is because they pay out without checking whether a bill is legitimate(!): """Like private payers, Medicare can leverage pre-payment audits to prevent improper payments. In FY2012, CMS successfully tested prepayment audits during the Medicare Prepayment Review Demonstration project. Recovery Audit Contractors (RACs) were authorized to review certain error prone Medicare claims for billing accuracy before they were paid. As a result of this short pilot program RACs prevented more than $192 million in improper payments from leaving the Medicare Trust Funds in error. The pilot program was so successful that the GAO recommended that “CMS should actively seek legislative authority to have RAs conduct prepayment claim reviews.”""" the fraud rate of medicare fee-for-service is about 2x that of healthcare at large: Each year, for example, the Office of Inspector General of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services conducts a formal audit of the Medicare program’s fee-for-service claim payment system. On February 21, 2002, the HHS-OIG reported its finding that of the $191.8 billion such claims paid in 2001, 6.3 percent – amounting to $12.1 billion – should not have been paid due to erroneous billing or payment, inadequate provider documentation of services to back up the claims and/or outright fraud. In May, 2004, the National Health Care Anti-Fraud Association (NHCAA) reported in its Anti-Fraud Management Survey that 52 of its member insurers collectively recovered or prevented payment of $503 million in 2003 as a direct result of their anti-fraud activities – a great deal of money, but barely a measurable fraction of the total estimated loss. The bottom line: The NHCAA estimates that of the nation’s annual health care outlay, at least 3 percent – or $51 billion in calendar-year 2003- is lost to outright fraud. Other estimates by government and law enforcement agencies place the loss as high as 10 percent of our annual expenditure – or $170 billion – each year. medicare-medicaid improperly pays about $65 billion per year (8.7% of $743 billion total): On June 8, 2010, the President announced that the Administration would cut the improper payment rate in the Medicare Fee for Service program in half by FY 2012. Considering that Medicare and Medicaid combined had about $65 billion in improper payments in FY 2009 including about $35 billion in Medicare Fee For Service alone, halving the improper payment rate would help avoid more than $20 billion in payment errors by FY 2012. [....] About a third of Medicare's improper payments are the result of a claim not having enough, or proper, documentation. Upon further investigation, many of those claims are ultimately deemed proper. One example is a payment based on a claim by a doctor who submits forms that are illegible. Also, not all improper claims can be completely recouped. For example, say a surgeon was paid $10,000 for an inpatient procedure when Medicare only reimburses for an outpatient procedure that costs $5,000. The government wouldn't recoup the full $10,000, just the $5,000. the overall cost of fraud is estimated at $85 billion to $272 billion per year: Fraud and Abuse: the waste that comes as fraudsters issue fake bills and run scams,28 and also from the blunt procedures of inspection and regulation that everyone faces because of the misbehaviors of a very few. We estimate that this category represented between $82 billion and $272 billion in wasteful spending in 2011.20,29 #####c ##### # healthcare outcomes: aggregate US vs world #####o # quality: objective the US does worse then most European countries on the Healthcare Access and Quality metric, which estimates preventable mortality rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645624782192246805/gr3a.png based on its healthcare spending, the US underperforms on the Healthcare Access and Quality metric, which estimates preventable mortality rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645624795966210059/gr6.png the US has the highest disability-adjusted life year (DALY) burden of high-income countries, suggesting disease and disability play a stronger role in the US than elsewhere: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640905673520971786/full.png the United States has the 2nd lowest healthcare coverage in the OECD: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/466994807584063488/unknown.png even in poor countries, the public sector provides higher quality care: Public sector provision was associated with higher rates of treatment success for tuberculosis and HIV [61]–[64] as well as vaccination [65],[66]. For example, in Pakistan, a matched cohort study in Karachi found that public sector tuberculosis care resulted in an 85% higher treatment success rate than private sector care [63]. In Thailand, patients seeking care in private institutions had significantly lower treatment success rates for tuberculosis, which was attributed to a three to five times greater likelihood of being prescribed non-WHO-recommended regimens than in the public sector [61]. In South Korea, tuberculosis treatment success rates were 51.8% in private clinics as opposed to 79.7% in public clinics, with only 26.2% of patients in private clinics receiving the recommended therapy, and over 40% receiving an inappropriately short duration of therapy [62]. Similarly higher rates of treatment failure were observed for private than public system patients on antiretroviral therapy for HIV in Botswana [64]. In India, an analysis of over 120,000 households, adjusted for demographic and socioeconomic factors, found that children receiving private health services were less likely to receive measles vaccinations [65]. Similar findings were reported from Cambodia [66]. # quality: subjective one in five pharmaceuticals prescribed in the US are skipped due to cost: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/467005759130042388/unknown.png one in five consultations prescribed in the US are skipped due to cost: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/697931983053127790/unknown.png one in three people in the US skipped some healthcare due to cost: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/467005772031721482/unknown.png the US was much more likely to have problems with access to healthcare services: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/508064722197676045/unknown.png the US healthcare system is shit (2014 survey): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640906317849952277/davis_mirror_2014_es1_for_web.png the US healthcare system is shit (2017 survey): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/457385346875785238/unknown.png # finance 42.4% of those with cancer lose their entire life savings in just 2 years: Across 9.5 million estimated new diagnoses of cancer from 2000–2012, individuals averaged 68.6±9.4 years with slight majorities being married (54.7%), not retired (51.1%), and Medicare beneficiaries (56.6%). At year+2, 42.4% depleted their entire life's assets, with higher adjusted odds associated with worsening cancer, requirement of continued treatment, demographic and socioeconomic factors (ie, female, Medicaid, uninsured, retired, increasing age, income, and household size), and clinical characteristics (ie, current smoker, worse self-reported health, hypertension, diabetes, lung disease) (P<.05); average losses were $92,098. At year+4, financial insolvency extended to 38.2%, with several consistent socioeconomic, cancer-related, and clinical characteristics remaining significant predictors of complete asset depletion. even among working-age Americans, 33.6% of cancer survivors had to borrow money or enter debt to pay for their care: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566054908378480640/unknown.png 58.5% of people in bankruptcy say direct medical costs "very much" or "somewhat" contributed to their bankruptcy: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566054106649591808/unknown.png 52.1% of debt collections originate from medical companies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566054465803649054/unknown.png 1/3 of GoFundMe's are for medical issues: It's become a go-to way for people in need to help pay their doctors. Medical fundraisers now account for 1 in 3 of the website's campaigns, and they bring in more money than any other GoFundMe category, said GoFundMe CEO Rob Solomon. # outcomes: mortality healthcare and quality of life were universally better in socialist countries than comparable nonsocialist countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/449693479208091649/unknown.png lack of insurance before Obamacare killed 45,000 people per year: the United States performs the worst for life expectancy measures and the worst for maternal and infant health measures among high-income countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/472875094314713088/unknown.png people in the United States visit a doctor half as often as the high-income country average: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/472876404313292810/unknown.png # outcome: doctor information doctors are least informed about their patients in the United States, according to patients: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641981242664812564/HPE-Quality-2011.png doctors don't spend enough time with patients, according to patients: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641981261006503956/HPE-Quality-2011.png # outcome: lifespan US life expectancy lags 7 years below the trendline for the amount of money we spend on healthcare: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/466989056476315659/unknown.png the US continues to spend more and more money than other countries for less gains in life expectancy: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/467362953939779584/unknown.png # outcome: wait times in a 2005 survey, only Canada (1 of 6) had worse waiting times than the United States: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/478043452974825502/waiting_times.png in a 2010 survey, only Canada, Norway, and Sweden (3 of 11) had worse waiting times than the United States: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641981417718284329/HPE-Access-2011-from-MacBook-Pro.png in a 2016, survey, only Canada and Sweden (2 of 10) had worse waiting times than the United States: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/591909883927068682/unknown.png patients in the US are much more likely to use the emergency room than a regular physician: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/591910261087010836/unknown.png in general, the US has middling wait times: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/508064707538845726/unknown.png transitioning from a single-payer to a multi-payer system actually *increased* wait times in Australia: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/462490202259193876/unknown.png # outcome: cancer survival the USA is in the top 25% of cancer survival rate countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/541878838062481418/unknown.png Survival is expressed as the percentage of people who are alive a certain period of time (usually 5 years) following a cancer diagnosis. It does not distinguish between patients who have no remaining evidence of cancer and those who have relapsed or are still in treatment. # alternative explanations alternative explanations like "the US is more obese" cannot explain the fact that the United States has higher death rates from a variety of sources, including infectious diseases, pregnancy complications, and perinatal period deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/480725963559272449/unknown.png the United States *is* more obese: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/466994210462236672/unknown.png but the United States smokes less: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/466994289407164416/unknown.png and the United States drinks less: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/466994248604975117/unknown.png the United States is not significantly more rural or more urbanized than other high-income countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/488749559934091286/unknown.png ^ 56.2% of calories consumed in the US come from heavily subsidized food commodities: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2530901 ^ lobbying on meat: https://qz.com/523255/the-us-meat-industrys-wildly-successful-40-year-crusade-to-keep-its-hold-on-the-american-diet/ [unread] ^ lobbying on meat: https://www.theverge.com/2016/1/7/10726606/2015-us-dietary-guidelines-meat-and-soda-lobbying-power [unread] ^ changes in american nutrition: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3403271/ ^ changes in american nutrition: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/soil-depletion-and-nutrition-loss/ https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07315724.2004.10719409 ^ changes in american nutrition: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/12/13/whats-on-your-table-how-americas-diet-has-changed-over-the-decades/ #####c ##### # payment scheme: terminology #####o # schemes Fee For Service (FFS): This model pays doctors per service provided. Capitation: This model pays doctors "per capita" (per person in doctor's panel in a period of time). Usually seen in HMO plans. Because doctors receive a flat fee per patient, but must pay this encourages Direct Primary Care (DPC): Integrated Health Model (IHM): This model integrates health insurance and health workers. Example is Kaiser Permanente. # terms panel = group of patients seen by a doctor; typically 1500-2000 in FFS/Capitation/IHM systems and 500 in DPC systems # abbreviations PCP = Primary Care Physician, the doctor you go to when you have a tummy hurty ED = Emergency Department, the doctor you go to when you step on a rusty naily HMO = Health Maintenance Organization, a plan which usually does NOT cover out-of-network care and requires referrals and a PCP PPO = Preferred Provider Organization, a plan which usually DOES cover out-of-network care PPO = Preferred Provider Organization, a plan which usually does NOT cover out-of-network care HDHP = High Deductible Health Plan, a plan with high deductibles and high out-of-pocket limits CDHP = Consumer-Driven Health Plan, a plan with high deductibles and high out-of-pocket limits (like HDHP) with an added health savings account (HSA) or health reimbursement account (HRA) to reduce tax burden PMPM = per member, per month; usually part of capitation schemes PPPM = per patient, per month; usually part of capitation schemes #####c ##### # payment scheme: capitation #####o Tummalapalli et al 2022: after clinics were categorized by majority of revenue stream, the quality of {hypertension, diabetes, and kidney} care did not differ significantly between Fee For Service (FFS) and Capitated practices; however, capitation clinics had significantly lower visit frequency (3.7 vs. 5.2 per year): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1195645741289439322/image.png?ex=65b4bede&is=65a249de&hm=31123de1aed7ec275bc1197c0ce468e4e16d5b8c57b1428a61fbf97d9630cc6c& Capitated versus fee-for-service reimbursement and quality of care for chronic disease: a US cross-sectional analysis """About 9% of visits were to practices with majority capitation revenue. Capitated practices, compared with FFS and other practices, had lower visit frequency (3.7 vs. 5.2 vs. 5.2, p=0.006), were more likely to be located in the West Census Region (55% vs. 18% vs. 17%, p<0.001), less likely to be solo practice (21% vs. 37% vs. 35%, p=0.005), more likely to be owned by an insurance company, health plan or HMO (24% vs. 13% vs. 13%, p=0.033), and more likely to have private insurance (43% vs. 25% vs. 19%, p=0.004) and managed care payments (69% vs. 23% vs. 26%, p<0.001) as the majority of revenue. The prevalence of controlled hypertension, controlled diabetes, ACEi/ARB use, and statin use was suboptimal across practice reimbursement types. Capitated reimbursement was not associated with differences in hypertension, diabetes, or CKD quality indicators, in multivariable models adjusting for patient, physician, and practice characteristics.""" #####c ##### # payment scheme: direct primary care #####o # limits of causal evidence on quality Adashi Clodfelter George 2018: because there have been no proper studies on DPC quality, it's unclear whether DPCs have better quality care (or why); the main suggestion is that DPCs have fewer patients per doctor and longer visits per doctor (observed), which improves longitudinal wellbeing (implied by anecdotal data), which results in fewer emergency and specialist visits (observed): Direct Primary Care One Step Forward, Two Steps Back """With a smaller patient paneland becauseDPC physicians do not bill third-party payers, physicians can focus on building therapeutic, longitudinal relationships with patients.5 DPC advocates suggest that these changesyield significant improvements in both patientand population-level health outcomes, reducing the rates of hospital readmissions, specialist visits, radiologic and laboratory testing, and emergency care. Individual DPC practices have indicated that practice-level data on outcomes support these claims; however, no study, to our knowledge, has produced data to support anecdotal claims by individual practices.""" ^ of course, this and Adashi Clodfelter George 2018 suggest that the benefits from DPC are not a result of the payment scheme, they're a result of the shift toward primary care and away from emergency care and specialist care # existing quality measurements Eskew and Klink 2015: Qliance patients (a DPC provider) appear to have substantially fewer emergency department visits: Direct Primary Care: Practice Distribution and Cost Across the Nation """Qliance is the first example of a corporate, multisite DPC model.21 Internal data from the group demonstrates that Qliance patients have a >50% reduction in emergency department visits, specialist visits, advance radiologic testing, and surgical procedures than traditional practices.22,23 The only measure of increased utilization is the number of primary care visits, which more than doubled from an average of 2 to an average of 4 per year during the reporting period.23 The logical inference is one that primary care advocates have insisted is true in every health system: As the utilization of low-cost comprehensive primary care increases, the need for high-cost emergency and specialty services decreases.""" Eskew and Klink 2015: in one DPC group, patients were seen substantially longer: Direct Primary Care: Practice Distribution and Cost Across the Nation """An unpublished study performed by the University of North Carolina School of Medicine and North Carolina State University MBA students demonstrated that the group’s DPC patients spend 85% less out of pocket for their total cost of care compared with the same level and amount of care in a traditional setting. Patients receive an average of 35 minutes per visit (compared with 8 minutes in the traditional model).20""" Eskew and Klink 2015: direct primary care (DPC) clinics claim to lower costs through [1] less overhead from no insurance processing and [2] fewer patients, which leads to [2.1] higher availability and [2.2] longer visits: """DPC practices claim to reduce overhead by more than 40% by eliminating administrative staff resources associated with third-party billing, resulting in lower price points for patients.7 DPC physicians cite 3 key practice improvements: (1) increased availability and, therefore, access; (2) more time for each patient encounter, leading to improved quality; and (3) lower overhead costs.8""" Milliman 2020 study: after Union County, North Carolina added a DPC option to its consumer-driven health plan (CDHP) by converting their HSA benefit to a DPC fee, it saved $1.28 million per year and saw substantially healthier patients with lower healthcare utilization: ,https://dpcreferee.com/2020/05/25/dpc-did-cost-uc-500k/> """We observed positive cost-related and utilization-related effects from the introduction of a DPC option in the employer’s self-insured health benefits plan. About half of the members included in our analysis enrolled in the DPC option, and the DPC option was associated with a statistically significant reduction in overall demand for health care services (−12.64%) and emergency department usage (−40.51%) after controlling for differences in age, gender and health status between the DPC and traditional cohorts. The DPC option was also associated with a lower inpatient hospital admission rate (−19.90%), but the difference was not statistically significant due to the small number of admissions during the two years analyzed. However, we also estimated that the introduction of a DPC option increased total nonadministrative plan costs for the employer by 1.3% after consideration of the DPC membership fee and other plan design changes for members enrolled in the DPC option.""" ^ Ratner 2023: the utilization estimates above are implausible, as they rely on DPC doctors to accurately enter insurance codes (when the purpose of DPC is to avoid spending time on such billing paperwork), and utilization likely actually *rose*; the program cost Union County about $400k more per year than its previous system: """To the Milliman team’s credit, they did manage to reach and announce the inescapable conclusion that Union County had increased its overall health care expenditure by implementing the direct primary care option. Even then, however, Milliman vastly understated the actual loss. That’s because its employer ROI calculation rested on an estimate of $61 as the average monthly direct primary care fee paid by Union County to Paladina Health; the actual average month fee paid was $95. There had been no need for a monthly fee estimate as the actual fees were a matter of public record. Though $1.25 millions in annual savings had been claimed, the total annual loss by Union County was over $400,000. Though 28% savings had once been bragged, the County’s actual ROI was about —8%. Milliman’s reliance on an estimate of the fees received from the County, rather than the actual fees collected, made a fiscal disaster appear to be close to a break even proposition.""" ^ Ratner 2023: either this DPC program or DPC programs in general enrolled younger patients: """Unless asked directly, DPC advocates withhold the fact that the enrollees in the direct primary care group are five years younger than those in the traditional care group. Age matters though, and it matters a lot. Age-cost curves for health care are steep. In tirades against the Affordable Care Act, many conservatives insist that the costs for 64-year-olds are five times higher than costs for 21-year-olds; that insurance premiums should reflect this 5:1 ratio; and that the 3:1 curve mandated by the Affordable Care Act penalizes the relatively young. [....] The calculations in the op-ed were based on there being a five year age difference between the two groups, my best estimate at the time. Later in 2017, the County advised me that the difference was almost exactly four years. Accordingly, my estimate of net County loss under a 5:1 curve should have been closer to $400,000.""" # existing cost measurements Eskew and Klink 2015: costs may be substantially lower at direct primary care (DPC) clinics regular clinics; the median monthly cost was $75: Direct Primary Care: Practice Distribution and Cost Across the Nation """We located 141 practices with 273 locations spanning 39 states (see Figure 3 and the Appendix). Practices with 4 providers comprised 93.2% of those included in the study. Of the 141 practices, 87 disclosed enough information for us to determine whether they were “pure” or “split” (73 [83.9%] were pure and 14 [16.1%] were split), and 84 disclosed enough information for us to determine whether they had opted out or were accepting Medicare (65 [77.4%] opted out and 19 [22.6%] accepted Medicare). Of the 65 practices that opted out of Medicare, 1 operated in a split fashion. A practice self-description was recorded for every practice in the study. The following terms were used: DPC by 75 practices (53.2%), concierge by 21 (14.9%), direct by 17 (12.1%), and other by 22 (19.6%). Of the 141 practices identified, 116 (82%) have cost information available online. When these 116 practices are analyzed, the average monthly cost to the patient is $93.26 (median monthly cost, $75.00; range, $26.67 to $562.50 per month).""" Ratner 2020: claims of 85% OOP reduction are not supported by the original source: #####c ##### # payment / provider scheme: integrated care model #####o # summary graphical summary: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1195632035667128390/Benefits_KaiserModel_042219-1024x603.png?ex=65b4b21b&is=65a23d1b&hm=d202a88772cb86babb58a2f7690f05134202e538ebcc905885a441af24737ea6& #####c ##### # evidence-based medicine: rare #####o # most medical practice is based on weak evidence McGinnis et al 2007 for the IOM Rountable Working Group on Sustainable Capacity: up to half of medical procedures performed are not supported by high-quality evidence: """Estimates range widely concerning the proportion of medical care in the United States that is based on, or supported by, adequate evidence [9-14]. However, given concerns about the extent to which this information may be generalized and the quality of the evidence that is used, some place this figure at well below half.""" Ebell et al 2017: among the Essential Evidence medical reference (commonly used and aimed at evidence-based medicine), only 18% of treatments were rated quality A, 34% quality B, and 49% quality C: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/751122245233148064/unknown.png """Essential Evidence Plus (http://www.essentialevidenceplus.com) is a comprehensive online medical reference published by Wiley-Blackwell. Its primary audience is primary care physicians, emergency physicians and hospitalists. Use of this reference has been shown to improve knowledge and attitudes towards EBP,13–15 and, in combination with daily evidence summaries emailed to subscribers, leads to practice change and improvement.16 17 Essential Evidence Plus includes 742 chapters, each focused on a different symptom, disease or procedure, as well as extensive collections of clinical calculators, decision support tools and critical appraisals of individual studies.""" """A: Recommendation based on consistent and good quality patient-oriented evidence. B: Recommendation based on inconsistent or limited quality patient-oriented evidence. C: Recommendation based on consensus, usual practice, opinion, disease-oriented evidence or case series""" 2007 book suggests that less than half of medical practice is evidence-based, reviewing 6 studies: Estimates range widely concerning the proportion of medical care in the United States that is based on, or supported by, adequate evidence [9-14]. However, given concerns about the extent to which this information may be generalized and the quality of the evidence that is used, some place this figure at well below half. # solutions Patashnik 2018: the US should create a new regulatory body -- like "an FDA for surgery" -- with the purpose of creating high-quality evidence and limiting funding for poorly evidenced treatments (outside of experimental care): """A proposal from the Hamilton Project would give the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) more resources to scrutinize medical technologies and allow the agency to experiment with “reference pricing”: Medicare would pay a single price for all treatments, for a given condition, that have similar therapeutic effects, up to a cost-effectiveness threshold. Patients who want to receive less cost-effective treatments could still get them, but they’d have to pay any difference out of pocket. That strikes the right balance.""" #####c #####c ##### # # education: public # #####o ##### # school vouchers #####o # effectiveness on performance Shakeel Anderson Wolf 2021: meta-study of randomized controlled trials of school vouchers: effects on performance: close to null effect, not significant, on average, with possible publication bias (though the Eggerton bias statistic was not significant): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1168709984553541732/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1168709916039594055/image.png # effectiveness on cost Shakeel Anderson Wolf 2021: compares the cost of vouchers against public schools -- but note that the comparison here is between tuition and total student costs (and that poor students are several times less common in private schools, and that poor students are 1-3x more expensive per person): """Studies find that vouchers are cost effective, since they tend to generate achievement outcomes as good as or better than traditional public schools at a lower cost (Muralidharan & Sundararaman, 2015; Wolf & McShane, 2013). Null voucher impacts obtained at a lower cost than public schooling may benefit society. The average per-pupil spending in the public school systems in our meta-analysis was higher than the voucher amounts.13 Where the voucher covered the full cost of private school tuition, average school funding in the private versus the public sectors in the same geographic location where the voucher program was implemented was $255 versus $636 for Andhra Pradesh, India; $483 versus $1,963 for Delhi, India; $4,817 versus $11,846 for Milwaukee, WI; $5,456 versus $10,853 for Louisiana; $7,761 versus $21,081 for Washington, DC OSP I; and $12,306 versus $20,577 for Washington, DC OSP II.14 The partial programs in Charlotte, NC; Dayton and Toledo, OH; NYC; Washington, DC; and Bogota, Colombia cost less than half of the per-pupil expenditures in the neighborhood public schools; however, private funds supplemented them. Across the US, in constant 2018–2019 dollars, the per-pupil spending in public schools averaged $14,241 in 2011–2012 while average private school tuition rates were $7,670 in Catholic schools and $9,670 in non-Catholic religious schools (National Center for Education Statistics, 2019a, 2019b).15""" #####c ##### # public schools outperform private schools #####o # scope of private vs public schools 90% of students in elementary and secondary schools are in public institutions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641996643889053706/2013-03-28-Chart1.png 62% of postsecondary degrees are from public institutions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/537342848010289174/unknown.png # private schools richer private school enrollees are much more likely to be high-income: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641996702190010378/ednext_XVIII_4_murnane_fig02-small.png # cost of public vs private schools NCES: in 2011-12, average public school expenditures were $11,074/pupil enrolled; in 2011-12, average private school tuition *alone* was $7,770/pupil enrolled for elementary and $13,030/pupil for secondary (overall weighted average for private schools $11,170/pupil): # poor students cost more Duncombe Yinger 2004: low-income students cost about between 1.224x and 1.592x (Census poverty measure) or between 1.361 and 2.145x (subsidized lunch measure) more than non-low-income students in big cities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/595809558933536768/unknown.png # quality of private schools: correlation with controls accounting for student characteristics (gender, race, disability, ESL, poverty), private schools had insignificantly different reading scores and slightly lower math scores (model c) even without accounting for school characteristics (model d): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/621246778607534100/unknown.png controlling for family characteristics (mother's age, education, vocabulary, and depression; psychological adjustment; parenting quality; two-parent status; and income) reduces (model 1 to model 2) every alleged benefit of private school attendance (overall cognition, literacy, math, working memory, GPA, likelihood of graduation, likelihood of college graduation, social skills, risky sex, and crime victimization) to insignificance: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/621248384639959040/unknown.png #####c ##### # religious schools are similar to nonreligious schools #####o # meta-study: religious schools slightly better than public schools Jeynes 2012: meta-study: among studies using sophisticated controls, religious schools performed about 1/6th of a standard deviation better than public schools on standardized tests and on overall achievement; this study made no attempt to examine or correct publication bias, a serious concern:: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018930393065472011/unknown.png # large dutch sample: religious schools not significantly differnt than public schools Driessen Agirdag Merry 2016: #####c ##### # education policies: homework good #####o # performance 2006 meta-analysis finds a positive correlation between homework and class grades (reading and math) and standardized test grades for 7-12th grade (+.25) but negative for K-6th grade (-.04): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643060485620498452/unknown.png Fan et al 2016: meta-analysis: homework significantly correlates with significantly higher math & science ability (on both standardized and unstandardized assessments), with effect sizes of 0.357 for elementary, 0.146 for middle, and 0.297 for high school: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643061594447806484/unknown.png # attitudes 2006 meta-analysis finds a positive correlation between homework and attitudes towards learning and a negative correlation between homework and bad conduct: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664535458130296862/unknown.png #####c ##### # education policies: teacher performance pay good #####o # effective: meta-studies Pham 2020 (published version): teacher pay scales based on merit increased student performance by .043, equivalent to about 3 additional weeks of learning: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/858847434183933952/unknown.png Pham 2017 (preprint version): teacher pay scales based on merit increased student performance by .052, equivalent to about 4 additional weeks of learning: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664554939686715413/unknown.png """Based on empirical benchmarks established by Hill and colleagues (2008), an effect size of 0.052 is roughly equivalent to 4 additional weeks of learning assuming a standard deviation of 0.40 per year and 36 weeks in a school year.""" # effective: meta-studies: which types most effective Pham 2020 (published version): the most effective pay scales were individual pay scales for teachers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/858847342970535966/unknown.png Pham 2017 (preprint version): the most effective pay scales were group pay scales for teacher teams or entire schools: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664555614873190423/unknown.png group incentives = "whether there was a group incentive at the teacher-team or school level [rather than the individual teacher]"; "merit pay + other" = whether merit pay was implemented in conjunction with other reforms such as additional training; "merit pay + training" = merit pay program that was implemented in conjunction with a training/professional development component # effective: high-quality studies Woessman 2011: among OECD countries, countries with higher rates of teacher performance pay have 24.8% of a standard deviation higher PISA math scores (controls: base teacher pay, student and family backgrounds, GDP/capita, expenditure/student, school resources, school location): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664558540685443092/unknown.png ^ results hold across locus of decisionmaking (principal, local, national) and against other kinds of pay: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664558720155385876/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664558737117151253/unknown.png # ineffective grading teachers is an ineffective strategy: receipt of a financial award did not consistently relate to higher mean student test score gains or teachers’ likelihood of retention: #####c ##### # education policies: progressive teaching methods #####o # historical models: Rome, American colonies van Kleeck 2010: summary of literacy learning models in Rome and the early American colonies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/888887946625810582/unknown.png # progressive education: literature review Kohn 1999: xxx todo see appendix a # alternative model: ferrer Veysey 1979: Ferrer children "often did not learn to read until they were ten or twelve" years old https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/888876537842139156/unknown.png #####c ##### # education policies: progressive teaching methods: grading bad #####o # grading and performance Koenka 2019: meta-analysis: for student achievement, comments > comments+grades > grades >> nothing; for student motivation, comments > comments+grades > nothing > grades: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/893346161832919041/unknown.png Koenka 2019b: comments are best when they are [1] specific [2.1] task-focused [2.2] discuss change since last comment [2.3] identify next steps [3] don't compare student to peers [4] don't suggest student flaws are inherent: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/893338636551073872/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/893338643287130173/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/893338649486327879/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/893338656687935538/unknown.png """Principle 1: Specificity is critical. [....] [S]tudents benefit more from written feedback that is specific and personalized rather than generic. For example, individuals who educators tell are simply right or wrong [...] do not perform better than their counterparts who receive no feedback at all[.]""""""Principle 2: Feedback should be task-focused, self-referenced, and should identify next steps. [....] First, feedback should be task-focused. That is, it should target specific features of a student’s performance on a particular task or assessment. Second, self-referenced feedback encourages the student to focus on their own previous performance, as opposed to the performance of other students. Third, feedback that identifies next steps conveys information about specific aspects of a student’s performance on which he or she should focus for continued improvement.""""""Principle 3: Avoid normative feedback. One way that personalized feedback can be harmful is when it includes normative information (i.e., information that implicitly or explicitly compares a student’s performance to the performance of his or her peers).""""""Principle 4: Avoid making personalized feedback about the person. Somewhat ironically, personalized feedback should not focus on the individual student. We have made a case for the importance of personalized feedback, but educators should not equate this strategy with a focus on personal characteristics that students could perceive as unchangeable.""" # bias in grading grading does suffer from discrimination biases: Experienced graders were ~.1 standard deviations (SD) less biased; Grading using a rubric was ~.15 SD less biased; Individuals signalled to have an educational deficiency faced a ~.4 SD bias; to be an ethnic/racial minority a ~.25 SD bias; female ~.6; poor previous perfomance ~.4; unattractive ~.6: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/767884770028814366/unknown.png #####c ##### # education policies: mandatory schooling / compulsory schooling good #####o # scrape sources from here Harmon: Mcgrath 2019: Reyes 2020: causes of truancy: # existing law by state NCES table: # scope of problem DOE 2014: about 13% of students are chronically absent (for 15 or more days per year): """Nationwide, more than 6.8 million students – or 14% of all students – are chronically absent (absent 15 or more school days during the school year). More than 3 million high school students – or 19% of all high school students – are chronically absent.""" # mortality reduction: causal evidence Fischer 2013: variation in imposition of Sweden's compulsory schooling reform causally reduced mortality; the average Swede lived about 0.8 years longer as a result: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/890060390808047676/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/890361035612127242/unknown.png Fischer 2013: literature review of causal evidence: evidence generally either supports mortality reduction or is statistically insignificant: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/890061035741007892/unknown.png # attendance increase: causal evidence Margo 1996: DID estimates from birth date discontinuity; states that had compulsory schooling below 15yo did not see significantly higher school attendance; states that also banned child labor below 15yo saw significantly higher school attendance (around 10-20%) for students of that age: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/890325614760951938/unknown.png ^ Figinski 2019: xxx todo unread # bad policy: punitive responses against students for truancy AttendanceWorks 2020: punitive responses against children for truancy tend to reinforce the root causes preventing attendance: AttendanceWorks 2018: blogs: # positive externalities from education Acemoglu 2000: causal evidence suggests that education has large positive externalities (around a 1-4% increase of income per year): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/890465719848947722/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/890466364769333278/unknown.png ^ returns to schooling: Clay 2021: xxx unread #####c ##### # education policies: summer vacations probably not that bad #####o # summer vacation effects on learning: early studies Cooper et al 1996: metastudy: summer vacation over had significant negative effects on student performance in math and reading, excluding the Sustaining Effects Study (SES), which had different results than most other studies: study: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664541074903138349/unknown.png ^ Borman 2000: graph for above: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664543004375121921/unknown.png Alexander et al 2007: panel study n=300: low SES students stagnated over the summer while high SES students gained; this difference accounts for 66% (48.48/73.16) of the absolute difference: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960005857930776596/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960006040127168643/unknown.png ^ Alexander et al 1996: panel study: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664536645370118217/unknown.png n=326 full, 790 initial # summer vacation effects on learning: later studies: no major effect, no effect by socioeconomics or race Kuhfeld 2019: those with greater Spring-Summer learning loss showed greater Fall-Spring learning growth on NWEA MAP tests, suggesting that the loss is not permanent and is related to something plastic: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985325753988157500/unknown.png von Hippel Workman Downey 2018: using the high-quality ECLS-K studies, there was no differential learning loss over the summer by socioeconomic status or race/ethnicity; instead, differences in education emerge before kindergarten: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985326019873505330/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985326051850858516/unknown.png # summer learning reform: policy effects Cooper et al 2003: meta-study: modified school calendars that have students learn during the summer (with same or comparable overall school days) have small, positive effects on student learning (around 1/10th of a standard deviation), with larger effcts for disadvantaged students: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664550784897384459/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985327277694935080/unknown.png #####c ##### # violence and bullying at school [unformatted, reread] #####o # violence in schools / bullying decade-long decline in fights, crimes, and fear at schools: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/567186068924006400/unknown.png from 1992-93 to 2016-17, fewer students have been victims of homicide at school: 34 students were murdered in 1992-93 (of ~50 million students) and 18 students were murdered in 2016-17 (of ~55 million students): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/782609414795296798/unknown.png from 1991-2018, fewer kids have reported being the victim of a crime at school: theft declined from ~100 per 1000 to ~10 per 1000 and violent crime from ~90 per 1000 to ~25 per 1000: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/782608453066817537/unknown.png crime victimization: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/crimeindicators/ind_03.asp discipline: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/crimeindicators/ind_07.asp gangs: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/crimeindicators/ind_08.asp from 2001-2017, fewer kids have reported being bullied at school: bullying declined from ~30% to ~20% of students: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/782606357182414848/unknown.png teacher reports on misbehavior and tardiness: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/crimeindicators/ind_11.asp from 2001-2017, fewer kids have reported having had a physical fights: fights inside school declined from ~15% to ~10% of students and fights outside school declined from ~35% to ~20%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/782605749364850688/unknown.png carrying a weapon: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/crimeindicators/ind_13.asp safety measures: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/crimeindicators/ind_19.asp safety measures: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/crimeindicators/ind_20.asp #####c ##### # education outcomes: iq #####o # education improves iq Ritchie 2018: each year of education increases IQ by between 1 and 5 IQ points; these effects persisted reasonably well through time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/495035615444729858/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/498738755012657192/unknown.png meta-analysis of the fadeout effect: unformatted # iq improves education IQ strongly correlates with education success: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/553988213627289631/unknown.png This 5-year prospective longitudinal study of 70,000+ English children examined the association between psychometric intelligence at age 11 years and educational achievement in national examinations in 25 academic subjects at age 16. The correlation between a latent intelligence trait (Spearman's g from CAT2E) and a latent trait of educational achievement (GCSE scores) was 0.81. IQ strongly correlates with education success: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/554022256746168321/unknown.png The analyses involved 240 independent samples with 105,185 participants overall. After correcting for sampling error, error of measurement, and range restriction in the independent variable, we found a population correlation of ρ = .54. Moderator analyses pointed to a variation of the relationship between g and school grades depending on different school subject domains, grade levels, the type of intelligence test used in the primary study, as well as the year of publication, whereas gender had no effect on the magnitude of the relationship #####c ##### # college degrees are worthwhile #####o # college degrees over time popularity of various college degrees: business (~15% in 1970, ~22% in 2011), education (22%, 6%), English (~8%, ~3%), psychology (~5%, ~6%), engineering (~5%, ~5%), health (~3%, ~9%), art (~4%, ~5%), journalism (~1%, 5%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639539623713964062/NPR-Planet-Money-College-Majors-1970-2010-Quoctrung-Bui.png # return on investment college selectivity doesn't increase return on investment for STEM degrees but does for humanities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640985696068304927/20150314_USC467_0.png # economic trends the future requires college education: projections to 2020 suggest that 64% of jobs will require an associate's or more: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/440359034646691870/unknown.png # low-quality degrees / "basket weaving" / "humanities bad" / "liberal arts bad" your degree doesn't determine your career: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/454466457317933066/unknown.png most "worthless" degrees are just stepping stones to a law degree: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/443080762464534546/unknown.png #####c ##### # general education courses have utility #####o # general education increased critical thinking nationwide sample of 25,000 students: growth in critical thinking was positively predicted by participation in the following general education courses courses: writing (8.5%), interdisciplinary (5.3%), honors (4.1%), history (4.15), women's studies (5.3%), science (2.0%), math (3.2%); not predicted by: foreign language, ethnic studies, remedial, reading skills: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714238364194177044/unknown.png 24837 students, 392 four-year institutions, Cooperative Institutional Research Program’s (CIRP) 1989 Follow-Up Survey """The dependent variable is students’ self-reported growth in the " ability to think critically" since entering college. The possible responses are " much weaker," " weaker," " no change," "stronger," and " much stronger."""""""Further credence for the use of this measure comes from some correlates of self-reported growth in critical thinking found within the CIRP data set. As one might expect, self-reported growth in critical thinking is positively, albeit moderately, correlated with college grades (.13), undergraduate degree attain- ment (.11), and graduate degree aspirations (.14).""" participation in a "Democracy Academy" course improved self-reported critical thinking and leadership skills: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714311498146513017/unknown.png # general education increased knowledge single-state sample of 3100 students: post-course test performance increased (relative to pre-course test) in general courses of "college algebra" by 2.69x, in "economic history of the US" insignificantly, and in "civilization of the US" by 1.36x: """College algebra students averaged individual improvement ratios of 169% across all students in all institutions[.]""""""Economic history of the US: [....] The data analysis showed that only two of the institutions reporting results showed statistically significant student improvement from pretest to posttest[.]""""""Civilization of the US: [....] The data analysis indicated statistically significant improvement from pretest to posttest (t = 7.10 to 15.65, p < .0001 for all). [....] Individual student improvement ratios, calculated as indicated above, averaged 36%.""" # general education increased tolerance sample of 367 students: diversity courses enrollment positively predicts higher-quality interactions with diverse peers and higher engagement with social action: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714246354255478894/unknown.png """The social action engagement construct was composed of seven items that measure the importance students place on creating social awareness, volunteering for a cause, and working to eliminate poverty.""""""On the STIS, students were asked to identify the racial group other than their own with whom they interact most. For example, an Asian student in the sample might interact most with African American students[.] [....] Relative to interactions with that group, students were then asked to identify the frequency with which they had meaningful and honest discussions outside of class, shared personal feelings and problems, and worked effectively through conflict."""``The number of previous diversity courses taken by a student was an exogenous variable that indicates how many courses students took focusing on women’s studies, ethnic/cultural studies, general diversity issues, intensive dialogue, and serving communities in need prior to enrolling in the diversity or management class.""" sample of 48 students in two courses: students became significantly less ethnocentric by the end of the course https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714301989336645642/unknown.png A random sample of 48 students was chosen from those who completed all of the writing responses. """[T]here was a statistically significant difference in the level of intercultural sensitivity after the second intervention (p = 0.000). The mean score for the third writing response was 3.984.""""""In terms of Bennett’s Developmental Model of Intercultural Sensitivity, the mean scores for the first and second responses indicate that students’ abilities to negotiate difference were in the range of minimization, an ethnocentric stage. The mean score for the third response indicated that students’ abilities to negotiate difference had moved into the range of acceptance, an ethnorelative stage.""" #####c ##### # college tuition increases are caused by decreased state subsidies #####o # declines in state subsidies can explain cost increases declining state support for colleges explains the vast majority of rising college costs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/549644363253153812/unknown.png # administrative bloat cannot explain cost increases administrative bloat cannot explain rising tuition prices: there are no more employees per student in 2012 than in 1990, and the portion of employees who are faculty has risen from 1 in 3 to 1 in 2: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640985138498371730/Higher-Ed20Ladder20Fig.png # construction cannot explain cost increases construction cannot explain the rise in tuition: To get an idea of the maximum impact that the additional borrowing could have on college costs, enrollment at the largest public institutions—approximating the 224 universities and university systems included in the Moody’s data—totaled 10.2 million in fall 2012.25 If all debt service costs were paid for by students, this would yield a figure of $367 per student in increased debt service costs over the past decade. [....] Though we can’t estimate an exact impact on tuition, if we fairly estimate that half of these costs are paid for by students, we find that increased borrowing to fund college construction could account for about 5 percent of the tuition increases over the past decade. Clearly, increased college construction costs are not a major cause of rising tuition. # state loans cannot explain cost increases [unformatted, reread] (ancap talking point) increased student aid doesn't correlate with increased tuition: The claim that increased student aid causes tuition to rise was originated by William Bennett, the secretary of education under Ronald Reagan, in a 1987 New York Times opinion piece.19 Numerous academic studies since have tested the Bennett hypothesis, and though a few have found some link between rising aid and tuition in at most one sector of higher education,20 the vast majority have “…found not a shred of evidence of an empirical relationship,” as David Warren wrote in the Washington Post.21 As Warren notes, three major federal reports in the last fifteen years have each surveyed the existing academic literature, and each concluded that no such relationship exists. The most recent, conducted by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) in 2011, took advantage of a unique “natural experiment” to test the Bennett hypothesis: the substantial increases in Stafford Loan limits between 2007 and 2009.22 In 2007, the yearly loan limits, adjusted for inflation, ranged from $2,925 for freshmen to $6,125 for upper classmen. By 2009, they had risen to $5,750 and $7,825, respectively. All told, the yearly borrowing limit for all undergraduates increased by an average of $2,340. However, average tuition at public 4-year universities rose by just $540 over the same two years, in line with recent historical averages, leading the GAO to reject the possibility of a relationship between the two. Additionally, these increases in borrowing limits were the first since 1993, meaning that the inflation-adjusted value of the limit had declined for more than a decade during which tuitions rose steadily. All told, both the empirical evidence and academic consensus deem the Bennett hypothesis false. #####c ##### # american education system #####o # results PISA results 2015: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536277535705661441/unknown.png # spending: total NCES 2023: the US does NOT spend more on K-12 education than expected by GDP per capita; only South Korea spends far more than expected: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1080079901178208326/image.png NCES 2023: the US DOES spend more on postsecondary education expected by GDP per capita, also like Canada, the United Kingdom, and Finland: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/730198129823056003/unknown.png # spending: progressive Urban Institute 2017: accounting for all funding streams, 47 of 50 US states have net progressive education spending: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/563588856864309268/unknown.png The Education Trust 2018: adjusting for the additional funding needs of low-income students, in terms of state and local funding 20 states are regressive, 21 neutral, and 6 progressive: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/563590793634381834/unknown.png The Education Trust 2018: in terms of state and local funding, about 50% of states provide greater funding to schools with more minorities and about 50% provide less (without accounting): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/563590805118255105/unknown.png OECD 2017: in terms of state and local funding, the USA funds its schools mostly locally, as do about 2/5ths of the OECD : https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/563587840211156999/unknown.png # outcomes: not progressive students from poorer districts perform substantially worse: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/730186584309235773/unknown.png # spending: non-teacher the USA spends somewhat, but not much more, on non-teacher expenses than other countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/563587828093812746/unknown.png breakdown of where the money goes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/563592414615437313/unknown.png #####c ##### # education and ideology #####o # ideology effects on education people open to ideas perform better academically: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636534797363314718/unknown.png # education effects on epistemology people in all degrees except engineering were, after a few years of college, more likely to believe that epistemology is uncertain: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636535228914991114/unknown.png #####c ##### # academia bias political bias in academia #####o # literature review Burmila 2021: there is very weak evidence to support the claim that conservatives are victims of anti-conservative bias in colleges: # education moves students left, not teachers Mariani Hewitt 2008: among 6807 students in 47 four-year colleges, 27% moved to the left and 16% moved to the right between freshmen and senior year; however, faculty political orientation was insignificantly associated with this change; students at nonreligious schools moved more left than religious, women moved more left than men, and higher-income students moved slightly less left: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/753305372252438578/unknown.png # political orientation by field Rothman Lichter Nevitte 2005: among 1643 faculty in 183 four-year colleges in 1999, 72% identified as left or liberal; faculty who were conservative, Christian, or women, were more likely to teach at lower-selectivity colleges: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/753308317937565826/unknown.png # lack of bias in grading Musgrave Rom 2015: among a sample of 30 freshmen undergraduate essays and 39 TA's recruited from various colleges, there was no evidence that Democratic TA's gave lower grades to Republican students (or Republican TA's to Democratic students): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/778114584036638771/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1077185022135636109/image.png Fair and Balanced? Experimental Evidence on Partisan Bias in Grading Rom Musgrave 2014: [basically just a case study of whether Rom is biased; he was not] #####c #####c ##### # # economic planning: democratic central planning or indicative planning? # #####o # systems list of several socialist economic planning systems: ##### # privatization: empirics on efficiency #####o # multi-sector studies: state-owned perform comparably Knyazeva Knyazeva Stiglitz 2013: controlling for past performance, privatized assets perform worse than public assets in the short term and about equal in the long (10yr) term: """First, we evaluate the effects of certain property rights and institutional quality measures on performance and efficiency. We find that property rights and contracting rights protections contribute to stronger post-privatization performance. Second, we ask whether sectors undergoing changes from state to private ownership exhibit better or worse performance than sectors remaining public. We find an insignificant effect of privatization in ordinary least squares estimates and a negative short-term effect after correcting for endogeneity of privatization decisions that disappears in the long run, consistent with recently privatized enterprises facing short-run costs of restructuring and the challenges of mitigating agency and expropriation concerns.""""""Our main sample is based on Privatization Barometer (PB) privatizations in ‘Old’ (Western) and ‘New’ (Central and Eastern) European economies. [....] The findings highlight the importance of recognizing endogeneity and the nontrivial performance challenges facing newly private enterprises in a framework with agency and expropriation costs. The tradeoff is most pronounced for enterprises that enjoyed subsidies prior to privatization. They experience negative effects for up to 10 years. In the long run, the effect becomes insignificant.""" Knyazeva Knyazeva Stiglitz 2013: controlling for past performance, short-term performance of assets is worse after privatization for heavily subsidized and better after privatization for weakly subsidized public assets, but both converge to about equal performance after ~10 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643477004926320650/unknown.png """In cases of greater pre-privatization reliance on the government for subsidies and transfers prior to privatization, the short- and medium-run effects of privatization are negative, consistent with the newly private enterprises struggling to achieve profitability after subsidies are removed. However, the effect is mitigated in the long run as the necessary efficiency improvements are implemented. Thus, consistent with what one might expect, privatization effects grow weaker and become insignificant in the long run (10 years since the reform completion), corroborating the notion that the tradeoffs are felt more acutely in the short to medium term. With the passage of time, companies are able to leverage the incentive improvements associated with the switch to private ownership and compensate for the costs of restructuring. By comparison, in cases where the government did not subsidize heavily prior to privatization, newly privatized firms do not experience the adverse shock of subsidy reduction and instead appear to benefit right away from a switch to private ownership through privatization.""" # multi-sector studies: state-owned perform comparably Aguilera et al 2020: meta-analysis: state ownership has a very small negative correlation with firm performance; however, these results are extremely heterogenous: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1205986593794424863/image.png State ownership, political ideology, and firm performance around the world -- summary: """In the present paper, we reconcile this tension between the conventional view that SOEs lag behind private companies in terms of financial performance and the emerging view that SOEs perform better financially by showing that both views have some traction—contingent on the features of the government which controls the SOE. We propose that the political ideology of the government, independently and in conjunction with political institutions, influences the willingness and ability of governments to use their ownership positions in SOEs to improve the financial performance of firms (Pagano & Volpin, 2005).""" -- dataset: """We test our ideas with the help of a theory-building meta-analytic study, which employs data from 193 primary studies, covering 1,831,935 firm-year observations from 131 countries.""" -- results: """The results in Table 1 suggests a modest but significant negative mean association between state ownership and firm performance (mean rxy.z = -0.01, p < .001). However, the effect size distributions are highly heterogeneous (I 2 = 0.83) (Higgins & Thompson, 2002), suggesting the presence of moderators (Geyskens, Krishnan, Steenkamp, & Cunha, 2009). Fig. 1 presents a funnel plot of sample size against effect size that graphically illustrates and confirms the variability in the data. Consequently, we explored potential moderators that explain the great variability in the correlations between state ownership and firm performance including measurement-based, method-based, and country effect moderators, as well as the hypothesized institutional effects.""" ^ Aguilera et al 2020: methodology: State ownership, political ideology, and firm performance around the world -- state ownership estimate: """State ownership was operationalized in the primary studies with four mutually exclusive measures: (1) percentage of state ownership (Le & O’Brien, 2010), (2) state full control (Park, Li, & Tse, 2006), (3) state is the largest owner (Thomsen & Pedersen, 2000), and (4) state minority control (Boubakri, Cosset, & Guedhami, 2005).""" -- firm performance estimate: """Firm performance is a latent construct consisting of four mutually exclusive dimensions (Duran, van Essen, Heugens, Kostova, & Peng, 2019; Miller, Washburn, & Glick, 2013): (1) market-based performance (market-tobook ratio, stock performance, and Tobin’s Q), (2) accounting-based performance (EPS, profit, profit margin, ROA, ROE, ROI, ROS, and sales growth), (3) productivity (labor and total factor productivity), and (4) efficiency (technical, operating, and income). We extracted information about state ownership and firm performance from primary papers included in this meta-analysis.""" -- meta-analysis methodology: """We compute the meta-analytic mean effect size between state ownership and firm performance using random-effects Hedges and Olkin-type meta-analysis (HOMA) (e.g., Beugelsdijk, Kostova, Kunst, Spadafora, & van Essen, 2018; Hedges & Olkin, 1985). As mentioned, we used partial correlation coefficients (rxy.z). Partial correlations assess the relationship between state ownership (x) and firm performance (y), given a set of n control variables (z), such as those related to firm, industry, and governance characteristics mentioned above.""" # internet: state-owned perform better Talbot Hessekiel Kehl 2017: community-owned fiber networks (ISPs) tend to provide cheaper and better services than commercial ISPs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471511010101166130/unknown.png # concrete: more competitors increases gross value added Collard-Wexler 2011: among concrete production plants (high quality data), n(competitors)<5 is associated with decreased gross value added; n(competitors)>5 is associatd with increased gross value added (+.015); being a multi-unit firm had a +.177 effect, assets +.127, salaries +.733; : https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/570478838208004106/unknown.png Collard-Wexler 2011: productivity does not increase with concrete plant age: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640906468131864607/unknown.png #####c ##### # fire departments: against privatization #####o # note Some of the main examples cited in favor of privatization are massive, near-monopolistic firms who face little competitive pressure. For example, Denmark's Falck (described as a "business empire") isn't paid by individual consumers, but by municipalities via long-term contracts that cover huge areas, and it provides not just fire but 7 other major public services for ~2/3 of the country. Just as importantly, only one study compares the efficacy of public and private departments -- and that study considered Brazilian jungle fires, where it is not all obvious that the land protected by private and public agencies is similar. # summary Lam 2019: fire privatization has several successful and several massively wasteful or destructive case studies: Public–Private Partnerships for Fire, Police, and Ambulance Services """Privatization attempts such as those in Rye Brook resulted in nearly US$ 1 million in home losses (Henderson 2014). The approaches attempted with varying degrees of success include subscription-based services and municipal contracts.""""""Other PPP types of business model have been tried, e.g., PFI fire stations (below) and the building of nine regional control centers, linked by IT, to replace 46 fire and rescue control rooms spread all over the UK. The latter project was terminated, wasting at least GBP 469 million as a result (elaborated below). Whilst still on the subject of fire protection privatization, the case of Denmark must be mentioned as a successful counter-example. Half of Denmark’s 5 millionplus population has been protected from fire by a private (again international) company since 1922 (Guardiano et al. 1992). As part of an insurance business empire, a group of eight integrated-companies provides firefighting, fire loss prevention, road and air rescue and patient transportation, security guard, and surveillance services. Their crew is trained in multiple rescue functions. Danish law requires a public fire chief to be assigned to each private local fire contractor to ensure compliance with all regulations. The other half of the population is served by a municipal firefighting service or a voluntary fire brigade.""" # Falck high market power citation Falck 2009: Wikipedia: Falck provides ambulance services for 85% of Danish people and fire-fighting services in 67% of Danish municipalities: Falck Annual Report 2009 """Falck won several important new contracts during the year, including in Slovakia, Poland and Norway, whilst the tender rounds in all Danish regions ended up with Falck still being the provider of ambulance services to approximately 85% of the Danish population.""""""By the end of 2009, Falck provided fire-fighting services for 66 out of the 98 Danish municipalities, the same number as a year earlier. The number of responses for fire incidents was 13,993, down from 15,332 in 2008.""" Guardiano Haarmeyer Poole 1992: scope of Falck: Fire Protection Privatization: A Cost-Effective Approach to Public Safety """Falck has 134 stations throughout Denmark all open 24-hours a day. From 106 of these stations, Falcks Redningskorps provides fire services to approximately 2.3 million of the country's inhabitants through contracts with 173 of the total 275 municipalities.""" # private firms often [1] combine full-time and part-time firefighters and [2] use joint production Guardiano Haarmeyer Poole 1992: Falck uses part-time and full-time firefighters and provides other emergency services to keep their equipment and workers in use at all times: Fire Protection Privatization: A Cost-Effective Approach to Public Safety """In 1991, the Falck Group had 7,500 employees, putting the company among Denmark's 20 largest companies in terms of personnel, and a vehicle fleet of 3,500. Of this total, the majority were employed by Falcks Redningskorps in rescue-related work. In addition, to its approximately 2,000 full-time fire fighters, the company employs 1,700 part-time fire fighters.""""""The value of a versatile workforce is especially important in emergency-related services where there is often considerable dead time in between service calls. Instead of having its workforce and equipment idle during these down times, Falck's structure of shared tasks and cross-trained personnel, ensures high productivity of the company's resources. Moreover, as Kristensen pointed out, “Because of its many functions besides fire protection, almost all of its fire stations are manned around the clock.”72 The ability to perform a variety of jobs also gives members of its workforce greater job satisfaction.""" TODO: Wilson Grammich 2015: examines consolidation of police and fire agencies into a single public-service agency, and deconsolidation of the same: # fire protection effectiveness by country: damages, spending, deaths World Fire Statistics Centre / Geneva Association 2014: Denmark had the 4th-highest direct fire losses as percent of GDP, 0.2% for 2005-2007: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1131730131510104174/image.png World Fire Statistics Bulletin No. 29, April 2014 World Fire Statistics Centre / Geneva Association 2014: Denmark had the 1st-highest indirect fire losses as percent of GDP, 0.029% for 1993-1995: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1131730329519013958/image.png World Fire Statistics Bulletin No. 29, April 2014 World Fire Statistics Centre / Geneva Association 2014: Denmark had the 9th-highest deaths from fire per 100,000, at 1.36 for 2008-2010: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1131730494837506110/image.png World Fire Statistics Bulletin No. 29, April 2014 World Fire Statistics Centre / Geneva Association 2014: Denmark had the 4th-lowest spending on public fire brigades, 0.07% for 2006-2007: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1131731120887709706/image.png World Fire Statistics Bulletin No. 29, April 2014 "The published figures need to be adjusted for private fire brigades (additions) and non-fire work (deductions)." Guardiano Haarmeyer Poole 1992: fire protection spending as percent of GDP, cites World Fire Statistics Centre: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1131728945000239186/image.png Fire Protection Privatization: A Cost-Effective Approach to Public Safety # failed privatization efforts with the Rural/Metro company Henderson 2014: two small case studies of privatization going poorly: """In 1996, the village of Rye Brook, NY (which is about 30 miles from Manhattan) made the mistake of hiring the Rural/Metro Fire Department (a private company) to fight fires—prior to that, firefighter protection in Rye Brook was handled by the fire department of nearby Port Chester, NY. But Rye Brook returned to public-sector firefighting only two years later after a $1 million home was destroyed by fire—perhaps avoidably. Salvatore M. Cresenzi, Rye Brook’s mayor at the time, acknowledged that Rye Brook’s deal with Rural/Metro “was not a success”—and public-sector firefighters’ unions asserted that the home could have been saved had Rural/Metro operated more efficiently in Rye Brook. Seventeen years later in August 2013, there was another horror story involving Rural/Metro—this time in Surprise, Arizona (a Phoenix suburb), where Justin and Kasia Purcell lived in a mobile home. Two weeks after their home burned to the ground, the Purcells received a bill for $19,825 from Rural/Metro because they had not paid the annual subscription Rural/Metro charges for firefighter service in Surprise. But the Purcells told the Huffington Post they had no idea such a service existed and that they would have gladly paid the annual fee had they known.""" # one of the stronger studies (considers quality) but cannot assume that land serviced is equivalent Oliveira 2021: between 2012 and 2016, public fire brigades in Brazil's Amazon biome cost $0.5 per hectare-year and reduced area burned by 64%; public fire brigades in Brazil's Cerrado biome cost $5.3 per hectare-year and reduced area burned by 12%; private fire brigades in Amazon cost $15.9 per hectare-year and reduced area burned by 35% [though this land is concentrated near the deforestation burn zone, so it's not 1:1 with the public Amazon brigades]: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1131748250077106257/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1131748329441734736/image.png Costs and effectiveness of public and private fire management programs in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado ; ICMBio = public, AT = private """In the Amazon, the budget costs of ICMBio’s fire management, which include only fire suppression for both CU categories, average US$ 3 million year− 1 or US$ 0.51 ha− 1 yr− 1 .""""""Test #1 for the two groups of Amazon CUs without and with brigades showed that the average ratio between burned areas and CU area is 64% lower (p-value <2.2e-16) for the latter.""""""Total budget costs of suppression in Cerrado for all 21 CUs with brigades are US$ 4.79 million year1 (Fig. 1, Table S5), while costs including prevention and suppression amount to US$ 5.29 million year− 1 or US$ 5.32 ha− 1 yr− 1 .""""""Test #3 for the two groups of Cerrado CUs without and with brigades showed that the average ratio between burned areas and CU area is 12% lower (p-value <2.2e-16) for the latter.""""""AT invested an average of US$ 75 thousand year− 1 in prevention and US$ 311 thousand year− 1 in suppression. As a result, suppression costs (Eq. 7) are equivalent to 81% of total costs (Eq. 6).""""""Test # 5 pointed out that PPs in both biomes showed an average reduction of 50% in burned areas (p-value <2.2e-16) after entering the socioenvironmental registry of AT. In the Amazon biome, a total of 265 rural properties are registered in the AT platform, 68% of which occupied a large part of the arc of deforestation in northern Mato Grosso (Fig. 1, S1). Amazon landowners have managed to reduce burned areas by 35% after joining the AT initiative despite being located in a region of high deforestation rates (Fig. S2).""""""The relative cost of suppression is equivalent to US$ 15.89 ha− 1 yr− 1 derived from firefighting 310 thousand ha (Fig. 3) between 2012 and 2016.""" # libertarian studies: Kristensen 1983 Kristensen 1983: Falck's services cost about 1/3 as much as public fire brigade services: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1131736459985031248/image.png # libertarian studies: Guardiano 1992 Guardiano Haarmeyer Poole 1992: Fire Protection Privatization: A Cost-Effective Approach to Public Safety """As documented in Professor Ole Kristensen's study summarized in section VI, Falck's fire protection services cost only one-third as much as similar quality public fire service. The above description of Falck's extensive, and highly integrated organization, provides credibility to the factors Kristensen identifies as contributing to Falck's cost advantage over public provision of service—economies of scale, joint production of a number of different services, and competition.""" """The chief study examined is the University City Science Center's 1989 analysis of the privately operated Scottsdale (Arizona) Fire Department.""" Poole 1991: talks up the Scottsdale fire department, no hard evidence cited: # myth: 1700s-1800s fire departments stood and let buildings burn Tom Scott 2022: they did not: #####c ##### # economic planning: empirics on cyclical crises #####o # history crises have always, always, always occurred under capitalism (USA: 1819, 1837, 1839, 1857, 1873, 1884, 1893, 1896, 1907, 1929, 1980, 2007): """To summarize, the financial crises of the twentieth century were similar to their ancestors. They followed a pattern similar to their nineteenth century counterparts, usually 14 beginning with a speculative bubble, which was followed by a severe stock market crash and a recession. While the response by government has not always been the same, the boom and bust cycle has continued. Some common causes for this cycle include inadequate regulation of the financial sector. Many of these aspects have carried over into the current financial crisis.""" crises have always, always, always occurred under capitalism: # stimulus avoiding 2007-08 recession large economic stimulus prevented the 2006-2008 Recession from reducing growth in china -- despite facing the same export crises as Russia and South Africa: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/539255259575615508/unknown.png """Also, total industrial production in China nearly doubled between 2007 and 2013 despite the crisis and an extremely weak international demand for Chinese goods, whereas the United States has experienced zero growth in industrial production and that in the European Union and Japan has declined by 9.3% and 17.1%, respectively. No wonder Chinaís economic growth contributed 50% of global GDP growth during the crisis period (IMF, 2010), even though its income level accounted for less than 10% of world GDP and its total exports have remained 45% below trend since the crisis.""" interest rates can explain just 20% of the 2006 housing crisis: """The modest predicted impact of interest rates on prices is in line with empirical estimates, and it suggests that lower real rates can explain only one-fifth of the rise in prices from 1996 to 2006. We also find no convincing evidence that changes in approval rates or loan-to-value levels can explain the bulk of the changes in house prices, but definitive judgments on those mechanisms cannot be made without better corrections for the endogeneity of borrowers’ decisions to apply for mortgages.""" # usa: bailout the USA has made ~125 billion in profit from the bailouts, which were fundamentally loans: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/725544320232587314/unknown.png # political economy [xxx reread] political economy (obviously) affects cyclical crises: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470976857278251029/unknown.png # effects: mortality cyclical crises kill people; about 10k suicides can be attributed to the 2007-08 recession: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/546511239610630145/unknown.png These conservative figures suggest that, in total, there have been at least 10 000 more economic suicides than would have been expected in the European Union, Canada and the USA since the Great Recession began in 2007 #####c ##### # economic planning: theory on computation and efficiency #####o # theory: critiques the two main critiques of central planning have been 'theoretical incomputability' (computing optimal resource allocation is mathematically impossible) and 'practical incomputability' (insufficient information or computation is available for this problem): # theory: theoretical computability (economic calculation problem) infite possible commodities does not imply uncomputability, as very few possible commodities have nonzero price, inputs, or outputs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565303895241392128/unknown.png calculation of an input-output model has a time complexity of n*m*r: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/574901351364952064/unknown.png markets are efficient if and only if P = NP: """I prove that if markets are weak-form efficient, meaning current prices fully reflect all information available in past prices, then P = NP, meaning every computational problem whose solution can be verified in polynomial time can also be solved in polynomial time. I also prove the converse by showing how we can “program” the market to solve NP-complete problems. Since P probably does not equal NP, markets are probably not efficient. Specifically, markets become increasingly inefficient as the time series lengthens or becomes more frequent.""" when companies establish internal markets, they collapse -- for example, Sears was restructured in 2008 and went bankrupt in 2013: # theory: practical computability (economic calculation problem) in practice, planning for economies of modern scale is easily computed even on home computers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565302380841926656/unknown.png capitalism can be conceptualized as an iterative input-output model: Firms add up wage costs and costs of other commodity inputs, add a markup, and set their prices accordingly. This distributed algorithm, which is nowadays carried out by a combination of people and company computers, is structurally similar to the solution of linear equations by an iterative method. This models one phase of the iterative solution of Sraffa’s equations. Empirical evidence indicates that the price vector upon which the process converges lies somewhere near the vector of labour values see [29, 24]. # theory: natural resources neither capitalism nor socialism properly 'prices in' finite resources: Socialist planners “presumably would have to develop some kind of proxy for the value of nonreproducible resources in units of labour hours. It is difficult to imagine how this could be done in a way that would not be completely arbitrary.” We do not wish to deny there is a problem here. We do, however, find it rather remarkable that Mises (and his expositor, Lavoie) should talk as if the problem solves itself under capitalism. Neither offers any criticism of the classic Ricardian theory, according to which the market price system also fails to take into account non-reproducible resources. For Ricardo, natural resource constraints manifest themselves in the price system via rising marginal cost of production, i.e. just the effect which Mises takes to be inadequate. [....] In fact, matters are not infrequently worse under capitalism. The fact that a certain resource is ultimately exhaustible does not necessarily mean that it is subject to diminishing returns in the short run. In the westward expansion of American agriculture, for instance, the (geographically) marginal land was actually the most productive. In such cases the market provides no incentive whatever for resource conservation; the results were painfully evident in the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. We are not claiming that labour-time calculation would necessarily do better in cases where the market fails to conserve resources. We do contend, however, that socialist planners should be able to take more far-sighted decisions on resource conservation than profit-maximizing firms. # theory: double marginalization among soda bottling firms, vertical integration across double margins (eg, a bottler bottling both Coke and Pepsi was purchased by Coke and one "double margin" was eliminated) decreased prices: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/574897295972106240/unknown.png We find that vertical integration decreased the prices of own brands bottled by a vertically-integrated bottler by 1.7 percent (e.g., Diet Pepsi bottled by PepsiCo) and it increased the prices of rival brands bottled by a vertically-integrated bottler by 3.9 percent (e.g., Dr Pepper bottled by PepsiCo). The overall impact of vertical integration was to increase the prices of products bottled by vertically-integrated bottlers by 1.6 percent. Dynamic effects estimates show that the price increases in products bottled by a vertically-integrated bottler only started after the vertical transactions took place, and the price increases persisted in time. These results suggest that vertical integration with multiproduct firms has the potential of harming consumers because of how the vertically-integrated multiproduct firms use rival-brand prices to divert demand to their (more profitable to sell) own brands. #####c ##### # economic planning: theory on ltv (see ltv section for critiques) #####o # theory: nonhomogenous labor the value of skilled labor may be calculated as the "labor price" required to produce said skilled labor: True, labour is not homogeneous, but there is no warrant for the claim that the reduction factor for complex labour has to be arbitrary under socialism. Skilled labour may be treated in the same way that Marx treats the means of production in Capital, namely as a produced input which ‘transfers’ embodied labour to its product over time. Given the labour time required to produce skills and a depreciation horizon for those skills, one may calculate an implied ‘rate of transfer’ of the labour time embodied in the skills. If we call this rate, for skill i, ri , then labour of this type should be counted as a multiple (1 + ri) of simple labour, for the purpose of ‘costing’ its products. Of course the labour input required for the production of skills is likely to be a mixture of skilled and simple, which complicates the calculation of the skill multipliers. An iterative procedure is needed: first calculate the transfer rates as if all inputs were simple labour, then use those first-round transfer rates to re-evaluate the skilled labour inputs, on this basis recompute the transfer rates, and so on, until convergence is reached. # theory: labor vouchers Marx 1875: under socialism ("lower phase of communism"), laborers ("individual producers") should receive labor vouchers based on time worked (after deduction "for the communal fund") and use them to pay for means of consumption: """Accordingly, the individual producer receives back from society – after the deductions have been made – exactly what he gives to it. What he has given it is his individual quantum of labour. For instance, the social working day consists of the sum of the individual hours of work. The individual labour time of the individual producer thus constitutes his contribution to the social working day, his share of it. Society gives him a certificate stating that he has done such and such an amount of work (after the labour done for the communal fund has been deducted), and with this certificate he can withdraw from the social supply of means of consumption as much as costs an equivalent amount of labour.""" ^ Marx 1875: justification for labor vouchers: """Here, obviously, the same principle prevails as that which regulates the exchange of commodities, as far as this is exchange of equal values. Content and form are changed, because under the altered circumstances no one can give anything except his labor, and because, on the other hand, nothing can pass to the ownership of individuals, except individual means of consumption. But as far as the distribution of the latter among the individual producers is concerned, the same principle prevails as in the exchange of commodity equivalents: a given amount of labor in one form is exchanged for an equal amount of labor in another form.""" labor vouchers: The labour certificates Marx talks of here are quite different from money. They do not circulate, rather they are cancelled against the acquisition of consumer goods of equivalent labour content. And they may be used for consumer goods alone; they cannot purchase means of production or labour power, and hence cannot function as capital. #####c ##### # innovation across countries #####o # summary There is no strong evidence that socdem countries have reduced innovativeness; if anything, the reverse might be true. # social democracy encourages r&d social democratic states rank as the most innovative European states: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/703335792327786596/AAD0J7F.png ^ methodology of innovation index: """1.1.1 New doctorate graduates per 1000 population aged 25-34 1.1.2 Percentage population aged 25-34 having completed tertiary education 1.1.3 Percentage population aged 25-64 participating in lifelong learning 1.2.1 International scientific co-publications per million population 1.2.2 Scientific publications among the top-10% most cited publications worldwide as percentage of total scientific publications of the country 1.2.3 Foreign doctorate students as a percentage of all doctorate students 1.3.1 Broadband penetration 1.3.2 Opportunity-driven entrepreneurship (Motivational index) 2.1.1 R&D expenditure in the public sector (percentage of GDP) 2.1.2 Venture capital expenditures (percentage of GDP) 2.2.1 R&D expenditure in the business sector (percentage of GDP) 2.2.2 Non-R&D innovation expenditures (percentage of turnover) 2.2.3 Enterprises providing training to develop or upgrade ICT skills of their personnel 3.1.1 SMEs introducing product or process innovations (percentage of SMEs) 3.1.2 SMEs introducing marketing or organisational innovations (percentage of SMEs) 3.1.3 SMEs innovating in-house (percentage of SMEs) 3.2.1 Innovative SMEs collaborating with others (percentage of SMEs) 3.2.2 Public-private co-publications per million population 3.2.3 Private co-funding of public R&D expenditures (percentage of GDP) 3.3.1 PCT patent applications per billion GDP (in PPS) 3.3.2 Trademark applications per billion GDP (in PPS) 3.3.3 Design applications per billion GDP (in PPS) 4.1.1 Employment in knowledge-intensive activities (percentage of total employment) 4.1.2 Employment in fast-growing enterprises (percentage of total employment) 4.2.1 Exports of medium and high technology products as a share of total product exports 4.2.2 Knowledge-intensive services exports as percentage of total services exports 4.2.3 Sales of new-to-market and new-to-firm innovations as percentage of turnover""" # social democracy can encourage startups social democratic states like Iceland, Sweden, Finland have no problem generating startups and investing in them: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568918804105527343/unknown.png the USA has seen a declining savings rate and and a decline in new firm creation rate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571191562935992320/unknown.png #####c ##### # innovation and competition #####o # where innovation occurs: disproportionately in smaller firms in manufacturing, higher innovation (as measured via publication in relevant manufacturing journals) is associated with higher large firm (500+) employment, higher R&D, lower concentration, lower unionization, higher skilled labor, and larger industries; however, innovation per capita is much higher in small than large firms: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/631895637167702026/unknown.png """Thus, based on the U.S. Small Business Administration's classification of the significance level of innovations, there does not appear to be a great difference in the "quality" and significance of the innovations between large and small firms. However, the extent of innovative activity does not necessarily correspond to the market values of the innovations. It is conceivable that larger firms may tend to focus on innovations with a higher market value. [....] A random sample of 600 firms (with 375 responses) was used to allocate the entire set of innovations into 55 percent from small firms and 45 percent from large firms, resulting in an innovation- per-employee ratio 2.38 times greater in small firms than in large firms.""" # rates of r&d in different industries most industries have very low rates of R&D: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/503051683966877708/unknown.png # profit motive and bad innovation the profit motive creates fake journals: : It is estimated that the number of articles published in questionable journals [those that don't do peer review] has ballooned from about 53,000 a year in 2010 to more than 400,000 today. capitalism ruins textbooks: [unformatted, reread] #####c ##### # innovation and privatization: weak evidence #####o # evidence from china suggests privatization increases patents in China, privatization of an SOE is associated with a decline or negligible change of innovation parents (POST row) except in regions with strong intellectual property rights, where a substantial increase occurs (POSTxIPR row); in addition, university density is ~100x more powerful: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640661988053352449/unknown.png """Overall, the results in this section are consistent with the Schumpeterian view: within China, both private ownership and IPR protection are conducive to innovation. Importantly, the effect of privatization on innovation is highly influenced by local IPR protection; privatization has essentially no effect on innovation when IPR protection is weak, and a moderate increase in IPR protection can lead to large gains in post-privatization innovation. This is strong evidence that private sector innovation in China is particularly sensitive to IPR protection.""" ^ methodology notes: """SOEs in China, in fact, have a two-tiered defense against expropriation: through administrative measures by the government (the firms’ owners), and through the courts, which are often biased in their favor (Snyder 2012). This explanation suggests that China’s innovation should be led by the SOEs, and because they rely on the state, institutions such as IPR protection do not matter much. We call this the “alternative mechanisms view.”""""""To address these empirical challenges, we exploit China’s privatizations of SOEs as an identification method. The idea is that the privatization events result in a sharp change in the firms’ ownership structures and state affiliations, while keeping other firm attributes fixed.""""""Invention patents have the highest innovative content, as they cover novel technologies. Utility patents cover new applications of existing technologies.""" #####c ##### # innovation and welfare: decent evidence #####o # innovation tied to childhood experiences and location innovation is highly increased by parental income and exposure to innovation locations and innovators: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536431976312209408/unknown.png We then directly establish the importance of environment by showing that exposure to innovation during childhood has significant causal effects on children’s propensities to invent. Children whose families move to a high-innovation area when they are young are more likely to become inventors. These exposure effects are technology-class and gender specific. Children who grow up in a neighborhood or family with a high innovation rate in a specific technology class are more likely to patent in exactly the same class. #####c ##### # innovation and pharmaceuticals: public sector efficient #####o # united states not more innovative the United States doesn't patent more new pharmaceutical drugs (NMEs) than would be expected by its spending on pharmaceuticals, suggesting that free-er markets for medicine prices don't necessarily cause more innovation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/458596499392167936/unknown.png ^ another study found that more drugs are produced in the USA over time, but it's only based on headquarter location: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/689952336638246943/Table.png # canadian pharmaceuticals spend proportionally more on r&d pharmaceutical companies in Canada spend 1-2x more on research and development than on advertising: Depending on the method used to determine promotion spending, industry-wide the ratio of R&D spending to promotion ranges from 1.45 to 2.18 (sales representatives and journal advertising only) or from 0.88 to 1.32 (total promotion spending estimated based 2003-2005 data.) For the individual companies promoting one or more of the 50 most promoted drugs, 2.11 to 2.32 times more is spent on R&D compared to promotion. However these results should be interpreted cautiously because of data limitations. pharmaceutical companies in the USA spend 2x more on advertisements than on research and development: Excluding direct-to-consumer advertising, CAM considers that around 80% of the remaining promotion is directed towards physicians, with 20% of this figure going to pharmacists. (IMS does not provide any comparable values.) With about 700,000 practicing physicians in the US in 2004 [20], we estimate that with a total expenditure of US$57.5 billion, the industry spent around US$61,000 in promotion per physician. **As a percentage of US domestic sales of US$235.4 billion [21], promotion consumes 24.4% of the sales dollar versus 13.4% for R&D.** ^ sources of funding: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/472847785839034368/unknown.png # public sector efficient public sector pharmaceutical research is 2x more likely to get primary review: The FDA assigns the application one of two types of review on the basis of its therapeutic potential: priority review if the drug shows substantial improvement, as compared with currently marketed products for the treatment, diagnosis, or prevention of a disease, or standard review if the drug appears to have therapeutic qualities similar to those of one or more drugs that are already on the market. [....] During this period, the FDA approved 1541 new-drug applications but granted priority review to just 348 applications (22.6%) (Table 2). **Of the 1541 total approvals, 143 (9.3%) resulted from PSRIs. However, of the 348 priority reviews, 66 (19.0%) resulted from PSRIs, or twice the overall rate for priority reviews. Viewed from another perspective, 46.2% of new-drug applications from PSRIs received priority reviews, as compared with 20.0% of applications that were based purely on private-sector research, an increase by a factor of 2.3. ^ drugs approved close to (within 2 months of) their Congress-mandated deadline had greater adverse effects (black-box warnings and safety-based withdrawls), but priority review products were not more likely to have adverse effects: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634831533966098442/unknown.png To assess claims that lower-quality policy outcomes may arise from inherent drug uncertainty, we include two measures to capture agency uncertainty. One is an indicator of whether the FDA designated the drug for priority review, a designation reservedfor drugs that represent significant innovation over existing therapies. Such innovation holds potential for greater drug safety and efficacy but greater uncertainty as new formulations are introduced into the market for the first time. [....] There appears to be no stratification in the deadline effect across priority and nonpriority reviews, save for dosage-form discontinuations, where there is a deadline effect among standard drugs but not among priority drugs (see the online appendix, Tables A13a, b). ^ drugs approved close to (within 2 months of) their Congress-mandated deadline had greater adverse effects (disability, hospitalization, or death), and priority review products were more likely to have adverse effects: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634830568017625099/unknown.png Initiation of the PDUFA requirements concentrated the number of approval decisions made in the weeks immediately preceding the deadlines. As compared with drugs approved at other times, drugs approved in the 2 months before their PDUFA deadlines were more likely to be withdrawn for safety reasons (odds ratio, 5.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3 to 27.8), more likely to carry a subsequent black-box warning (odds ratio, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.2 to 20.5), and more likely to have one or more dosage forms voluntarily discontinued by the manufacturer (odds ratio, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.5 to 7.5). ^ the FDA's priority review system is effective at categorizing drugs with high clinical added value: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634838277718802454/unknown.png The Haute Autorité de Santé (HAS) is a French government agency that provides recommendations on reimbursement decisions of medicinal products made by the public authorities. Their decisions are based on a clinical added value (CAV) using a five-level scoring system that takes into account the comparative efficacy and safety data of a new drug with regards to available treatments[.] [....] The positive predictive value corresponded to the number of NME seen in shorter review time and highly clinical added value (i.e., true positive) among the total of shorter review time NME. The negative predictive value corresponded to the number of NME not seen in shorter review time and slightly clinical added value (i.e., true negative) among the total of non-shorter review time NME. [....] Secondly, among the 43 NME judged as of highly clinical added value by HAS, shorter review time was considered for 37 of them by the FDA compared to 13 of them by the EMA. #####c ##### # innovation: patents #####o # patents may cause/protect innovation according to a survey of 100 medium-size firms in 1981-82, between 0 and 60% of inventions would not have been developed without a patent system and 60-80% of patent-able inventions are patented: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640655825148444696/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640656962589163549/unknown.png # patents correlate with innovation in 1982, countywide patents were highly correlated with innovations (as measured by the Futures Group for the Small Business Administration): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640654909867556882/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # labor market policies: state intervention often justified # #####o ##### # cooperatives and mutuals: scope #####o # scope: saturation cooperatives represent 1 billion people, 23% of banks, and 30% of insurance firms: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/563265578890952715/unknown.png Approximately 1 billion people in 96 countries now belong to a cooperative -- a form of business characterized by democratic ownership and governance -- according to the International Co-operative Alliance. Cooperatives are low-profile but powerful economic actors, with the world's 300 largest ones generating revenues in 2008 of more than $1.6 trillion. [....] [T]he cooperative model is widespread and by at least one measure surpasses shareholder corporations: the 1 billion member-owners of cooperatives worldwide exceed the 893 million shareholders of corporations. The latter figure includes direct shareholders, who own stock as individuals, and indirect shareholders, who own stock through mutual funds and other indirect vehicles. If individual stockholders are considered alone, cooperative member-owners outnumber direct shareholders three to one. [....] In some advanced industrial countries, coops generate a meaningful share of economic output: 21% in Finland, 17.5% in New Zealand, 16.4% in Switzerland, and 13% in Sweden. [....] A 2010 World Bank report found that credit union branches account for 23 percent of bank branches worldwide and serve 870 million people, making them the second largest financial services network in the world. [....] Similarly for insurance: more than 30 percent of the market in the five largest insurance markets globally is controlled by mutual and coop firms. # scope: employment in the USA, coops directly employ 856,000 full time equivalents and indirectly account for 2 million jobs (1.8% of all jobs): in France in 2010, coops employ 750,000 people (3% of private salaried employees): in France in 2018, coops employ 1,300,000 people (5.5% of private salaried employees) and represent 70% of retail banking, 40% of agriculture, and 30% of retail commerce: Elles représentent 70% de l'activité banque de détail, 40% de l'agro-alimentaire et 30% du commerce de détail en France. [....] Avec 1,3 million de salariés, en milieu rural, en zone urbaine, au coeur des centres-villes et en périphérie, la part des salariés travaillant dans les coopératives est de 5,5%, en hausse constante depuis 2008. [....] 1 français sur 3 est membre d'au moins une coopérative. Ces entreprises comptent 27,5 millions de sociétaires qui peuvent être entrepreneurs, usagers, clients, ou salariés, et salariés de leur coopérative. # scope: revenue in 2008, the 300 largest coops made up 1.6 trillion / 63.575 trillion = 2.5% of world GDP. World GDP 2008: 63.575 in 2011, the top 100 coops in the USA had $215 billion in revenue: in 2017, the top 100 coops in the USA had $208 billion in revenue: #####c ##### # cooperatives and mutuals: efficiency #####o # efficiency cooperative logging enterprises and unionized logging enterprises are more productive than traditional logging enterprises: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470302676299808788/unknown.png """In table 3, average values of output per worker-hour (labor productivity) are consistently higher for the classical firms, but there is little difference between the co-ops and the unionized mills. By contrast, average values of output per log input (material productivity) are usually higher for the co-ops and the unionized mills and lowest for the classical mills. This implies quite different labor-log ratios as shown in the last line: computed over all production types, the average ratio of worker-hours to log inputs in cooperative and unionized mills is more than double its value in classical mills. These differences in input ratios are less marked in mills specializing in plywood and in veneer production. Output per size of largest lathe (XIK) is consistently highest among the unionized mills and usually lowest among the classical mills.""""""Craig and Pencavel conclude, "Worker participation has neither major efficiency gains nor efficiency losses." I found this conclusion rather bold given the imprecision of the estimates. Moreover, a 14 percent increase in productivity could be considered a major gain. To achieve this large a gain, one would have to increase logs by some 30 percent.""" # scarcity ("Why don't more exist?") Olsen 2013 argues that "financing constraints" because of lender reluctance and lack of collateral and "elevated early risk" because firms are usually entirely worker-funded (ie, high liability) cause cooperatives to be formed less than conventional enterprises: Abell 2014 argues that "culture" (the cultural dominance of conventional capitalist enterprise), "business expertise" (the lack of worker experience in business management), "financing" (lack of startup funding), "management" and "organizational democracy" (the need to build an egalitarian, democratic decisionmaking style in order for the enterprise to succeed) are the main barriers to entry for cooperatives: # strength & survival in the UK from 2008-2013, the 5-year survival rate for an enterprise was 80% for cooperatives and 41% for other ownership models: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470283420380037150/unknown.png in Quebec from 1998-2008, the 10-year survival rate was 44% for cooperatives and 19.5% for other enterprises: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470307566761803778/unknown.png in Quebec from 1998-2008, it took 10 years for the yearly survival rate of non-cooperatives to catch up with the unchanging yearly survival rate of cooperatives: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470306155319787522/unknown.png in Quebec from 1989-1998, the 10-year survival was 46% for cooperatives and 20% for non-cooperatives (across many sectors): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470309436754493460/unknown.png in British Columbia, the 5-year survival rate was 67% for cooperatives and 43% for non-cooperatives: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470311328133808138/unknown.png in Alberta, the 3-year survival rate was 81.5% for cooperatives and 48% for conventional firms: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/747446700393889802/unknown.png #####c ##### # cooperatives and mutuals: community benefits #####o # community retail cooperatives invested 6.9% of their pre-tax profits in their communities, compared with 2.4% for other retail stores: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470283797418606612/retailcoopsprofits-600x328.png # reduction in racism white workers who gain union membership became less bigoted against / more supportive towards black people -- 4.2% less in VSG, 4.8% less in CCES: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/655578562644148225/unknown.png three sources: Cooperative Congressional Election Survey (CCES); Voter Study Group (VSG); American National Election Studies (ANES, n=3,994 whites); racism measure is 4 questions: """(1) “The Irish, Italians, Jews, and many other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up. Blacks should do the same without any special favors.” (2) “Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for Blacks to work their way out of the lower class” (reverse coded).""""""(3) “It’s really a matter of some people not trying hard enough; if blacks would only try harder they could be just as well off as whites.”""""""(4) “Over the past few years, blacks have gotten lessthan they deserve” (reverse coded).""" #####c ##### # unions #####o # stock value unionized companies have a lower risk of a stock market crash: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/594599542121431040/unknown.png no significant difference for: return on assets (ROA), market-to-book ratio (MB), firm size (SIZE), leverage (LEV), de-trended share turnover (DTURN), standard deviation of firm-specific weekly returns (SIGMA), annual average of firm-specific weekly returns (RET), and the absolute value of discretionary accruals (ABACC) unionization slightly decreases stock value, but only significantly so when the vote to unionize is substantially above 50: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/594808808690155520/unknown.png # safety right to work laws directly increase occupational deaths: Methods Two-way fixed effects regression models are used to estimate the effect of unionisation on occupational mortality per 100 000 workers, controlling for state policy liberalism and workforce composition over the period 1992–2016. In the final specification, RTW laws are used as an instrument for unionisation to recover causal effects. Results The Local Average Treatment Effect of a 1% decline in unionisation attributable to RTW is about a 5% increase in the rate of occupational fatalities. In total, RTW laws have led to a 14.2% increase in occupational mortality through decreased unionisation. #####c ##### # minimum wage: strong evidence in favor of #####o # employment effect: consensus IGM 2015 survey of economists: gradual increase of the minimum wage to $15 in 2020 would increase unemployment: weighted by confidence, 34% agreed, 37% were uncertain, and 29% disagreed (net: +5%). https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/812054701445087292/unknown.png IGM 2021 survey of economists: federal minimum wage of $15 per hour would lower employment for low-wage workers in many states: 31% agree, 48% uncertain, 21% disagree: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/812055363402334208/unknown.png # employment effect: meta-analyses: small effect Card and Kueger 1995: meta-study: minimum wage increases correlated with near-zero changes in employment effects, after accounting for publication bias preferring negative-elasticity results: Doucouliagos and Stanley 2009: meta-study: minimum wage increases correlated with near-zero changes in employment effects, after accounting for publication bias preferring negative-elasticity results: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/442763863440621588/unknown.png Chletsos and Giotis 2014: meta-study: minimum wage increases correlated with near-zero changes in employment effects, after accounting for publication bias preferring negative-elasticity results: < q> https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/442764014871642123/unknown.png Wolfson 2016: large: meta analysis titled 15 Years of Research on U.S. Employment and the Minimum Wage created an average of 739 estimates from 37 different papers analyzing US data on the impact of the minimum wage on unemployment, concluding that the average estimate predicts that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage would reduce employment by a negligible 0.6 percent. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2705499 Allegretto 2017: hq: meta analysis titled Credible Research Designs for Minimum Wage Studies specifically examines studies which use high-quality comparison groups found little-to-no employment effects on average (elasticity around -0.05). https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0019793917692788 # employment effect: neumark meta-study: large Neumark 2021: todo xxx # employment effect: neumark literature review: large Neumark 2006: this study is explicitly *not* a meta-analysis: """In putting together this review, we have intentionally foregone a formal meta-analysis in favor of a traditional narrative review that attempts to provide a sense of the quality of the research and tries to highlight and synthesize the findings that we regard as more credible.""" Dube 2021: xxx https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/937574957515415592/unknown.png # median wage https://twitter.com/SocDoneLeft/status/1483227915223457795 # employment effects: long-term effects small Meer 2015: Allegretto 2017: """We make one additional observation about the results in Table 4. Meer and West (2016) criticized the inclusion of state-specific trends and argued that they produce spuriously small disemployment estimates because trends soak up lagged effects. This argument is categorically not true here. Using Meer and West’s preferred distributed-lag first-difference specification also produces an employment estimate for teens that is close to zero, similar to estimates with state-specific trends but different from the two-way fixed-effects estimate in levels. [....] Table 4 thus raises questions about whether the findings that minimum wages reduce aggregate employment in Meer and West (2016) are likely to reflect causal effects.""" # monopsony: general effects Azar Marinescu Steinbaum 2017: using an instrumental variable specification, going from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile in concentration is associated with a 17% decline in posted wages: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1202024574431002634/image.png we calculate the average of log(1/N) for the same occupation for every other commuting zone. We use log(1/N) instead of HHI as the instrument because it is less likely to be endogenous, as it does not depend on market shares. # monopsony: minimum wages Azar et al 2019: commuting zones with fewer employers (with presumably higher monopsony) have more benign effects from minimum wages: minimum wage effects for the least concentrated zones are slightly negative, for middle zero, and for the most concentrated zones are actually positive: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/812057436366045184/unknown.png HHI = Herfindahl-Hirschman index, a measure of labor-market concentration Azar et al 2019: comparison with other concentration and elasticity findings: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/812057488106586142/unknown.png # reduced poverty Dube 2019: reviewed 78 estimates from 13 studies, found that doubling the minimum wage would decrease poverty by 22-45 percent; minimum wages significantly increase incomes, particularly for the poor: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/807065900750602280/unknown.png # reduced inequality raising the minimum wage strongly reduces inequality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641981630138941450/brazil-inequality-real-minimum-wage-3col.png # inflation increases but consumption increases about as much Cooper: real consumption growth in some sectors follows minimum wage increases: this suggests that the minimum wage has a net positive impact on consumption: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/704157709620215828/unknown.png """The finding that some categories of real consumption growth rise following an increase in the minimum wage suggest that the average consumer is better off.""" MacDonald and Nilsson 2016: a 10% increase in the minimum wage increases prices by just ~0.36%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1034319544908529714/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1034319805538390026/unknown.png """Quantitatively, we find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with a modest rise in city-level prices: A 10 percent increase in the minimum wage increases the local-aggregate CPI by 0.14 percentage point in the year of the increase. This city-level inflation effect is persistent, with a cumulative price gain—taking into account the lagged minimum wage change—of about 25 basis points for a 10 percent hike in the minimum wage.""""""Second, a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage is followed by 0.22 percentage point increase in nominal consumer spending, presumably as a result of greater income and perhaps higher employment, but also through relative prices and other channels as the local economy adjusts to the higher minimum wage.""""""Whereas the commonly accepted elasticity of prices to minimum wage changes is 0.07, we find a value almost half of that, 0.036. Importantly, the value we found, 0.036, falls far short of what would be expected if low-wage labor markets are perfectly competitive.""" 1981 meta-analysis of 4 studies suggested that a 10% increase in minimum wage would increase wages by .8% (overall growth: 9%) and prices by .3% (overall growth: 9.3%): """The Commission found that the effect of a 10 percent sustained annual rise in the minimum wage over its historical level from 1974 to the second quarter of 1979 would have increased wages 0.8 percent and consumer prices somewhat less than 0.3 percent. This effect is small, considering that the actual average annual rate of inflation during the same period was 9 percent for wages and 9.3 percent for consumer prices.""" 1st literature review: [unformatted, reread] 2nd literature review: [unformatted, reread] # increased efficiency Dustmann 2020 preprint: after Germany enacted a min wage, ~25% of the wage increases resulted from workers switching from less-productive, less-profitable firms to more-profitable firms; higher minimum wage increases resulted in higher increases in firm efficiency: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/725469843574227004/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1034574227992494141/unknown.png # reduced suicide Gertner 2019: higher minimum wages are non-causally correlated with lower suicide rates: a $1 higher minimum wage correlates with 2% lower suicide rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640222148795039744/unknown.png """A one-dollar increase in state minimum wage was associated on average with a 1.9% decrease in the annual age-adjusted suicide rate. Such a decrease in the suicide rate during the study period would have resulted in roughly 8,000 fewer suicide deaths.""" """Though steps were taken to reduce bias using robust model specification and covariate adjustment, the association between minimum wages and suicide rates detected in this study should not necessarily be interpreted as causal. Fixed effects models account for important differences between states that are stable over time but are unable to control for time-varying unobserved factors.""" Kaufman 2020: difference-in-difference estimates suggest that raising the minimum wage by $1 causally decreases suicides by about 3.5% among people with high school degree or less: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866074343733985290/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866074078325243963/unknown.png #####c ##### # exploitation #####o # output vs pay Americans produce $63.45 per hour worked: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536294410632167434/unknown.png Americans earn $28.86 per hour worked: stop blaming taxes: the vast majority of your labor goes to capitalists, not the government: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/456541606003212290/unknown.png # productivity vs pay over time: bad argument, flawed methodology in the last 30 years, productivity increased 73% but hourly compensation increased just 12%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640925649485168650/136586-16869.png the EPI calculates that this is almost entirely due to increasing inequality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/851659391911460884/184209-24598.png ^ alternative inflation metrics -- PCE is best at estimating inflation of prices of consumed goods and IPD at prices of produced goods -- find a smaller difference (but still a real one) between productivity and compensation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640925679432761347/bgproductivityandcompensationchart6825.png ^ the EPI graph's productivity index is based on all private workers but its compensation index includes public sector workers but excludes supervisors; when corrected, no major gap appears: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/750860836402102393/productivity_5.png between 1979 and 2007, the average worker worked 10.7% longer for 26.9% higher real wages: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536285462365732865/unknown.png # labor share over time the US labor share of output has declined for the past century: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640925809506385920/giandrea-sprague-fig1.png the US labor share of GDP has declined for the past century: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LABSHPUSA156NRUG ^ note: the reasons for this are more complicated than you'd think: https://www.vox.com/2015/1/8/7511281/labor-share-income xxx reread # wage theft wage theft (theft by employers from employees) is three times larger than criminal theft: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/440346797580484650/grnr8kxbl6zz.png wage theft is three times largrer than criminal theft: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536296402943344650/m.png # causes concentrated labor markets (those with fewer hirers) have substantially lower wages: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471543659985240074/unknown.png Using a panel IV regression, we show that going from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile in concentration is associated with a 17% decline in posted wages, suggesting that concentration increases labor market power. #####c ##### # shorter work weeks & reduced work time #####o # empirics from the ussr moving from a 6-day workweek to a 5-day workweek increased weekly free and physiological needs time by 10h46m for women and 10h11m for men in the USSR: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/564912339564888112/unknown.png the USSR had problems with scheduling free time in the workweek, especially before the move to a 40-hour, 5-day workweek: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/564504160658128929/unknown.png # importance of leisure engaging in enjoyable leisure appears to improve physical and mental health, health behaviors, and buffer against the effects of stressful life events: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565306889827778563/unknown.png # excessive work time is harmful excessive work increases risk: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536276939862835202/unknown.png After adjusting for those factors, working in jobs with overtime schedules was associated with a 61% higher injury hazard rate compared to jobs without overtime. Working at least 12 hours per day was associated with a 37% increased hazard rate and working at least 60 hours per week was associated with a 23% increased hazard rate. A strong dose-response effect was observed, with the injury rate (per 100 accumulated worker-years in a particular schedule) increasing in correspondence to the number of hours per day (or per week) in the workers’ customary schedule # much of work time is wasted the average worker reports spending just 40% of their work time on their "primary duties" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536260770263072783/unknown.png #####c ##### # employment protection legislation #####o # epl reduces earnings losses associated with unemployment unemployment scarring = earnings losses due to unemployment = the difference between the earnings change among workers experiencing unemployment and the estimated earnings change they would've had if they had not experienced unemployment Pons 2021: workers in countries with low EPL have worse unemployment scarring during rising unemployment; in contrast, countries with high EPL have near-equivalent scarring in all unemployment directions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/807446028936413214/unknown.png Pons 2021: the above effects of rising unemployment on greater scarring are even stronger when comparing short-term and long-term unemployment spells: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/807446092252708904/unknown.png ^ Pons 2021: note on cutoff points: """We select two cutoff points to present the results, the low-EPL scenario represents the lowest EPL level observed in our dataset corresponding to the USA (EPL ¼ 0.26) and the high-EPL scenario corresponds to the highest EPL level observed in our dataset corresponding to Czechia (EPL ¼ 3.3). In countries with robust EPL, unemployment scarring is largely insensitive to changes in macroeconomic conditions. By contrast, in countries with weaker EPL, unemployment scarring is cyclical and becomes larger as macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. In a country with weak EPL, it makes a big difference whether workers lose a job in a context of rising unemployment or not. In a country with robust EPL, the penalty to unemployment does not substantially change when macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.""" # epl has a near-zero effect on employment meta-analysis of 75 studies over 881 estimates overall found that employment protection legislation (EPL)'s estimated impact on employmet is near-zero impact: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/784841965179109426/unknown.png ^these results were robust to data source: the only data type subsample where EPL had significant unemployment effects were those where EPL was estimated by surveys of managers & executives, which are probably lower-quality than the EPL estimates based on the actual statutes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/784996690099830834/unknown.png ^ these results were robust to demographic groups: youth, long-term, and other unemployment measures also had no robust, statistically significant effects; female unemployment has a statistically significant effect, but it only had 2 studies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/784996682030120960/unknown.png # shifts in epl have a near-zero effect on growth large "shocks" to EPL do not correlate with GDP growth in the next five years (cr_t_ terms): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/785005425371774976/unknown.png endogeneity definition -- not causal! """An endogenous definition relates the average value of the variable of interest, where an above-average value can be classified as abnormal. In this case, given the extremely heterogeneous character of EPL percentage variations among different countries an endogenous threshold should take this heterogeneity into account, and therefore be differentfrom country to country. Looking at Fig. 2, we can see that there are countries, such as Belgium, where the EPL index is almost stable with only one single leap over the whole period. On the contrary, there are some countries, such as Portugal, where the index shows much more variability, the single changes being less pronounced.""" large "shocks" to EPL *do* correlate with significant reductions in the labor wage share of national income: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/785005463288021002/unknown.png #####c ##### # automation #####o # scope 47% of US jobs might disappear through labor-saving automation https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/440388507253604382/unknown.png a 2018 OECD study suggests that 45% of jobs are at risk of automation (37% in USA): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566044446026760202/unknown.png automatic cars are extremely overhyped: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/10/self-driving-cars-how-badly-is-the-technology-hyped.html # solutions: worker retraining current worker retraining programs are ineffective: #####c #####c ##### # # regulations: state intervention often justified # #####o ##### # regulations #####o # general ederal regulations in the United States saved a net $131-$636 billion over 10 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/440360669393453057/unknown.png the projected cost of US environmental regulations is routinely higher than the real cost: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/730129051498577960/industry_opposition_to_government_regulation_fig.png # environmental regulations almost no industry is profitable if direct environmental costs are considered as costs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/451569626023854090/unknown.png # modern examples of companies choosing profits over safety vaping industry: Ripley Entertainment (duck boats), 2018: Shell (oil) and ExxonMobil (oil), 2018: Palabora Mining Company (copper), 2018: Opioids in Covington, KY, 2018: American truckers, 2018: Australian trucking, 2018: Johnson and Johnson (baby powder), 2018: # bad studies this study finds that regulation decreases growth, but measures "regulation" as "number of pages in the federal register"; terrible quality: #####c ##### # clean air act #####o # overall economic benefits in total, the clean air act prevented 205,000 premature deaths (10,250 deaths per year) and saved $5.6-49.4 trillion (median $22.2 trillion, $1.11 trillion per year) and cost $523 billion ($.026 trillion per year) between 1970 and 1990: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536256008864137236/unknown.png the clean air act reduced mobile vehicle emissions and is estimated to save $15 billion and 39,000 premature deaths per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536234949444108298/unknown.png the clean air act reduced fine particulate emissions and reduced dementia, saving $214 billion per year: [unformatted, unread] # blood lead: reduction the EPA rapidly reduced blood lead levels under the Clean Air Act: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640906901126905866/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/503303089651056641/unknown.png lead emissions rapidly decreased after the 70's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/503300582510034945/unknown.png lead in gas per person was increasing until 1974: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640924071604781086/LEAD_PBEFFECT_300.png ^ timeline of rollout of unleaded gasoline: As is summarized in Table 1, the phasedown of lead in gasoline began in 1974 when, under the authority of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduced rules requiring the use of unleaded gasoline in new cars equipped with catalytic converters. ^ leaded gasoline sales continued to increase until 1976: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640907397065342977/cfc8c60bcd0fdadc01a39b489e77b33bb4fe179e.png international comparisons on lead reduction: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/763851513080315924/unknown.png # nitrogen oxide, sulphur dioxide, and sulphate: reduction the clean air act reduced nitrogen oxide (NOx) and sulfur compound (SO_2, sulphur dioxide & SO_4^2-, sulphate) pollution without increasing power costs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536187299973693471/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536189001229402122/unknown.png ^ nitrogen oxides effects: ^ sulphur dioxide effects: ^ sulphate effects: # nitrogen oxide, sulphur dioxide, and sulphate: economic benefits the clean air act reduced nitrogen oxide (NOx) and sulfur compound (SO2 & SO42-) pollution-related health costs by $174-427 billion per year, reduced premature deaths by 7,000-66,000 per year, and cost industry just $3 billion per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536185372179169293/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536187858608848916/unknown.png In the most recent study evaluating the cost of implementing only Title IV, Chestnut and Mills (2005) estimated total annualized costs at a slightly higher level than studies reported in the 2005 NAPAP RTC (NSTC, 2005). Chestnut and Mills (2005) estimated the total annual costs for reducing SO2 at approximately $2 billion (2000$) per year, with NOx emission reductions costing an additional $1 billion annually— still a fraction of the initial cost estimates. # mercury: reduction the clean air act reduced mercury emissions by 90+% in hospitals and municipal waste plants and is expected to reduce emissions by 90% for power plants: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536235395013279744/unknown.png The final rule establishes power plant emission standards for mercury, acid gases, and non-mercury metallic toxic pollutants which will result in: preventing about 90 percent of the mercury in coal burned in power plants from being emitted to the air; reducing 88 percent of acid gas emissions from power plants; and reducing 41 percent of sulfur dioxide emissions from power plants beyond the reductions expected from the Cross State Air Pollution Rule. ^ mercury effects: # mercury: economic benefits extension of the clean air act mercury rule to power plants in 2015 is expected to prevent 4,200-11,000 premature deaths per year and save $33-89 billion per year (likely an underestimate) and cost just $9.6 billion per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/536237682804785152/unknown.png We estimate the monetized health and climate co-benefits of MATS to be $37 billion to $90 billion at a 3% discount rate and $33 billion to $81 billion at a 7% discount rate in 2016, depending on the epidemiological function used to estimate reductions in premature mortality. All estimates are in 2007$. # volatile organic compounds: reductions emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) have nosedived while distance travelled has grown linearly: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640906745912492032/vehicles.png Compared to 1970 vehicle models, new cars, SUVs and pickup trucks are roughly 99 percent cleaner for common pollutants (hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and particle emissions), while Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled has dramatically increased. ^ VOC effects: ^ definition of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs): #####c #####c ##### # # taxation # #####o ##### # general data about taxation #####o # laffer curve bad the laffer curve (gov't revenue vs tax rate) for the United States peaks at 70% income tax and 70% capital tax: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/479480122806894612/unknown.png Young 2016: accounting for out-migration of millionaires, the revenue-maximizing marginal tax rate for income-millionaires would be 68%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729809095452000306/unknown.png # trickle down bad tax cuts on income for the bottom 90% increase economic growth, but not for the top 10% (column 4 suggests, if anything, higher taxes on the top 10% increase real GDP): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729365143326294056/unknown.png """In particular, the 3.4 percent estimate for the increase in state employment from a 1 percent of GDP tax cut for the bottom 90 percent translates to roughly $31,500 per job.31 These cost-per-job estimates are consistent with those reported in Ramey (2011): $25,000 in Wilson (2012), roughly $28,600 in Chodorow-Reich et al. (2012), $30,000 in Suárez Serrato and Wingender (2011), and $35,000 in Shoag (2010).32 My estimates for the impact of tax cuts for the top 10 percent on employment are statistically and economically indistinguishable from zero, so the corresponding cost-per-job estimate is much higher. Therefore, given my estimates by income group, the overall impact of a tax cut of 1 percent of GDP that goes half to the bottom 90 percent and half to the top 10 percent will have roughly a $63,000 cost per job.""" # capital flight / wealth flight appears to be small in the USA Young 2016: states with higher taxes on income-millionaires do not have significantly more emigration of income-millionaires: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/467813947366440982/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729810021570838680/unknown.png states with higher taxes (yellow) don't see lower growth in the number of millionaire tax filers (4 of the 10 states with above-average growth in millionaire tax filers have high taxes; 4 of the 40 states below average have high taxes): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/467814785485111326/image5.png the "flight of the wealthy" after raising taxes is almost entirely a myth: [unformatted] # tax havens are enormous estimate of the scope of tax haven wealth: about 26 trillion in 2007: """As for TJNs original estimates, when the errors are corrected, the most likely quantity of private offshore financial assets in June 2004 was not $9.5 trillion, but $12.1 to $20 trillion, depending on whether we use the very conservative 3.0 liquidity multiplier or something more realistic. Since then, offshore deposits by nonbanks nearly doubled from 2004 to December 2007, when the global economy took a tumble. During that period, offshore financial assets may have grown to be worth as much as $22 to 33 trillion. Since then the model indicates that they have slumped slightly to the $21 trillion to $32 trillion range, with a plausible midpoint of about $26 trillion. But this still represents enough growth since 2004 to be consistent with the growth in global private banking AUMs noted above. Assuming a developing country wealth share of 25 to 30 percent, this range is also consistent with the results of our accumulated wealth model.""" # us taxes are progressive state and local taxes are regressive: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642020131790127105/report-charts-figure01-1024x663.png CBO 2018: federal taxes are progressive: the bottom 60-80% net benefit or are net unchanged from federal taxes and transfers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072275997900161115/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072276160593023037/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072276526185332856/image.png CBO 2018: where federal taxes are spent: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/968733182264483880/unknown.png CBO 2016: federal taxes are progressive: the bottom 60-80% net benefit or are net unchanged from federal taxes and transfers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644150967184523264/unknown.png relevant to Yang universal basic income (UBI) #####c ##### # wealth taxes good #####o # scope status of wealth taxes and death transfer / gift taxes in the OECD, 2015: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/727609264729751633/unknown.png status of wealth taxes and death transfer / gift taxes in the OECD, 1985: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729051813965201438/unknown.png # scope over time: wealth taxes have been rolled back fewer OECD countries have a wealth tax in 2015 than 1985: """Of the eleven countries with a direct wealth tax in 1985, only four still had one in 2015 – the Netherlands (on the provincial level only), Norway, Spain, and Switzerland (on the canton level). Spain abolished its wealth tax on January 1, 2009, but then re-introduced it in 2012. Austria and Denmark discontinued their wealth tax in 1995, Germany in 1997, Finland and Luxembourg in 2006, and Sweden in 2007. Iceland abrogated its wealth tax in 2006, reintroduced it in 2010 for four years, and then eliminated it in 2015. However, France reintroduced a direct wealth tax in 2011 and abolished it again in 2018, except on highvalue real estate assets.7 As of 2016, three of the original 24 OECD countries had a national wealth tax and two had a provincial (or canton-level) wealth tax.""""""Why the retrenchment in wealth taxes (both direct and inheritance)? One can think of the backlash on taxes in general that began with Reagan and Thatcher in the 1980s. This was followed by a conservative backlash in continental Europe in the 1990s and 2000s. For example, the conservative government elected to power in Sweden in the mid-2000s engineered the elimination of both the direct wealth tax and the inheritance tax.""" ^ explanation for above: """Critics cite three reasons to oppose a wealth tax. The first reason is that wealth taxes have failed in Europe. Indeed, eight of the twelve European countries with a wealth tax in 1990 had abandoned them by 2019. Saez and Zucman argue that the wealth tax repeals in Europe were the result of poor policy choices. For example, European wealth taxes were levied on households with little cash but substantial illiquid wealth due to low exemption thresholds. To avoid this problem, Saez and Zucman advocate for a high exemption threshold. The authors note that the exemption threshold in Elizabeth Warren’s wealth tax proposal—which is set at $50 million—is 50 times higher than the typical European wealth tax.""" # wealth tax evasion the US is in a strong position for wealth tax evasion: """EU efforts at curbing offshore tax evasion have been weak. As shown for example by Johannesen and Zucman (2014), half hearted tax enforcement efforts can be easily circumvented and end up having minimal effects on tax evasion. In contrast, the US has taken a bold step in the enforcement direction with FACTA in 2010 that imposes steep penalties on foreign financial institutions that fail to report accounts of US residents to the US tax authorities (see Zucman, 2015 for a detailed discussion).""""""FATCA follows the route of policing directly foreign financial institutions but with the difficulty that the US tax authorities have less power to audit effectively foreign financial institutions than home financial institutions. Another route is to get foreign governments to share the information they can collect from their financial institutions. The second route is best in the long-run but likely more difficult to establish as it requires international cooperation.""" # wealth flight the US is in a strong position for wealth flight: """Second, how much residence decisions of the wealthy are affected by taxation is also heavily dependent on policy. The EU is organized to foster such tax competition. Individual income and wealth taxation depends solely on current residence. Hence, when France had a progressive wealth tax before 2018, moving from Paris to London would extinguish immediately progressive wealth tax liability (except for domestic real estate assets).""""""What is more, EU countries have schemes to lure away the high skill or the wealthy from their home countries by promising tax breaks to movers. Contrast this with US policy: US citizens remain liable for US income taxes for life and regardless of residence (but with full credit for foreign income taxes paid). The only way to escape the US income tax is to renounce US citizenship and even then, the US imposes a substantial exit tax. The exit tax, formally known as the expatriation tax, is essentially a tax on all unrealized capital gains upon expatriation. It applies to high income (incomes over $160,000) or high wealth (wealth above $2 million) expatriates. It applies to citizens who renounce citizenship and also to long-term residents who end their US resident tax status. The wealth tax proposal by Elizabeth Warren proposes to further strengthen the exit with a 40% wealth tax on expatriates’ assets. Such exit taxes can effectively eliminate incentives to exit for tax reasons.""" estimates of wealth tax hiding: """Seim, David. 2017. "Behavioral Responses to an Annual Wealth Tax: Evidence from Sweden", American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 9(4), 395-421 and Jakobsen, Kristian, Katrine Jakobsen, Henrik Kleven and Gabriel Zucman. 2018. “Wealth Accumulation and Wealth Taxation: Theory and Evidence from Denmark” NBER working paper No. 24371, obtain small avoidance/evasion responses in the case of Sweden and Denmark in two countries with systematic third party reporting of wealth: a 1% wealth tax reduces reported wealth by less than 1%. Londono-Velez, Juliana and Javier Avila. "Can Wealth Taxation Work in Developing Countries? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Colombia", UC Berkeley working paper, 2018 show medium size avoidance/evasion responses in the case of Colombia where enforcement is not as strong: a 1% wealth tax reduces reported wealth by about 2-3%. The study for Switzerland, Brülhart, Marius, Jonathan Gruber, Matthias Krapf, and Kurt Schmidheiny. “Taxing Wealth: Evidence from Switzerland,” NBER working paper No. 22376, 2016 is an outlier that finds very large responses to wealth taxation in Switzerland: a 1% wealth tax lowers reported wealth by 23-34%. This extremely large estimate is extrapolated from very small variations in wealth tax rates over time and across Swiss cantons and hence is not as compellingly identified as the other estimates based on large variations in the wealth tax rate. Switzerland has no systematic third party reporting of assets which can also make tax evasion responses larger than in Scandinavia. Our 15% tax avoidance/evasion response to a 2% wealth tax is based on the average across these four studies (2%*(.5+.5+2.5+28.5)/4=16%).""" # illiquid wealth / aggravated millionaires: set a higher bar """Aggravated millionaires are taxpayers wealthy in illiquid assets (or at least wealthy enough to be above the exemption threshold) but poor in cash. As a result, such taxpayers feel the wealth tax as a heavy and unjust burden.""""""The cleanest solution to liquidity issues is to increase the exemption thresholds so that mere millionaires are not liable. This route was followed for the US estate tax.""""""The recent wealth tax proposal by Elizabeth Warren has also a very high exemption level of $50 million which is 50 times higher than typical European progressive wealth taxes. As a result, the policy debate on the proposal has not emphasized the issue of illiquid wealth and lack of cash.58""" # progressivity a small wealth tax like Warren's or Switzerland's would raise substantial revenue but would have small effects on inequality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/732598402663055390/unknown.png wealth taxes reduce wealth inequality: growth in wealth held by the top 400 Americans would have been halted by a "radical" of 10% marginal wealth tax above $1bn and permanently reduced by a "confiscatory" marginal wealth tax of 90%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729070864808804362/unknown.png #####c ##### # corporate taxes good #####o # growth rates higher corporate taxes are not significantly associated with higher or lower growth rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471472800524140554/Hungerford_Figure-C.png # progressivity taxing businesses mostly taxes the owners of capital, rather than workers themselves: We compute the percentage of capital income attributable to normal versus supernormal return, the percentage of normal return attributable to a cash flow tax versus a “burdensome” capital tax, and the portion of the burdensome tax on normal return to capital to distribute to capital income versus to labor income. **In summary, 82% of the corporate income tax burden is distributed to capital income and 18% is distributed to labor income.** integration of corporate and income taxes would be enormously beneficial: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634671056203939841/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634671146293264384/unknown.png #####c ##### # automatic taxes / pre-populated tax forms good #####o taxes should be automatic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlFeAPdmIM8 taxes are automatic for 100% of Danes, Estonians, Icelanders, Swedes, and Chileans: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/552927984168730717/unknown.png about half of tax filings could be automated: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/552934241764114472/unknown.png automatic filing could save up to "up to 225 million hours of time and more than $2 billion a year in tax preparation fees" for the 40% of the population it would apply to (~): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/552936330116464647/unknown.png the average American spends 17 hours preparing returns: #####c ##### # opinion polls #####o # income taxes a 70% marginal income tax above $10 million has net +16% support (58% support, 42% oppose, don't know excluded): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729370021733859328/unknown.png a 70% marginal income tax above $10 million has net +18% support (59% support, 41% oppose, don't know excluded): # income taxes: polls among the high-income most income-millionaires support taxes on income-millionaires: Fully 61% of those with net worths of $5 million or more support the tax on million-plus earners. # wealth taxes a 2% marginal wealth tax above 50 million + 3% marginal wealth tax above 1 billion has net +50% support (75% support, 25% oppose, don't know excluded): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729370011428192307/unknown.png # estate taxes a majority of Americans support repealing the estate tax (53% support, 48% oppose, don't know excluded), but by a much smaller margin than 2002 (73% support, 29% oppose, don't know excluded): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729372828167700641/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # austrian economics # #####o ##### # Misesian school of Austrian economics: praxeology & anti-empiricism #####o # summary Austrian economists routinely assert that we should prefer "praxeology" (ie, deductive "logic" about how they think humans behave) over statistical measures of how humans actually behave (ex: behavioral economics). # Friedman quote on praxeology Friedman 1991: video: Friedman 1991: edited transcript picture: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/778349662733074493/unknown.png """So far as von Mises is concerned, I refer to his methodological doctrine of praxeology. [....] Because his fundamental idea was that we knew things about "human action" (the title of his famous book) because we are human beings. As a result, he argued, we have absolutely certain knowledge of motivations of human action and he maintained that we can derive substantive conclusions from that basic knowledge. Facts, statistical or other evidence cannot, he argued, be used to test those conclusions, but only to illustrate a theory. They cannot be used to contradict a theory, because we are not generalizing from observed evidence, but from innate knowledge of human motives and behavior. That philosophy converts an asserted body of substantive conclusions into a religion.""" # Mises quote: rejecting the idea of empirical testing Mises 1963: Mises asserted that praxeology was un-empirical, un-testable, and un-verifiable: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1142624169088008433/image.png """In the field of human history a limitation similar to that which the experimentally tested theories enjoin upon the attempts to interpret and elucidate individual physical, chemical, and physiological events is provided by praxeology. Praxeology is a theoretical and systematic, not a historical, science. Its scope is human action as such, irrespective of all environmental, accidental, and individual circumstances of the concrete acts. Its cognition is purely formal and general without reference to the material content and the particular features of the actual case. It aims at knowledge valid for all instances in which the conditions exactly correspond to those implied in its assumptions and inferences. Its statements and propositions are not derived from experience. They are, like those of logic and mathematics, a priori. They are not subject to verification or falsification on the ground of experience and facts. They are both logically and temporally antecedent to any comprehension of historical facts. They are a necessary requirement of any intellectual grasp of historical events. Without them we should not be able to see in the course of events anything else than kaleidoscopic change and chaotic muddle.""" # Mises quote: rejecting actual empirical testing Mises 1963: Mises famously rejected statistical measures of economic performance in general: """In the field of praxeology and economics no sense can be given to the notion of measurement. In the hypothetical state of rigid conditions there are no changes to be measured. In the actual world of change there are no fixed points, dimensions, or relations which could serve as a standard. The monetary unit's purchasing power never changes evenly with regard to all things vendible and purchasable. The notions of stability and stabilization are empty if they do not refer to a state of rigidity and its preservation. However, this state of rigidity cannot even be thought out consistently to its ultimate logical consequences; still less can it be realized.""" Mises 1963: Mises rejected statistical measures of macroeconomic performance in specific: """The pretentious solemnity which statisticians and statistical bureaus display in computing indexes of purchasing power and cost of living is out of place. These index numbers are at best rather crude and inaccurate illustrations of changes which have occurred. In periods of slow alterations in the relation between the supply of and the demand for money they do not convey any information at all. In periods of inflation and consequently of sharp price changes they provide a rough image of events which every individual experiences in his daily life. A judicious housewife knows much more about price changes as far as they affect her own household than the statistical averages can tell. She has little use for computations disregarding changes both in quality and in the amount of goods which she is able or permitted to buy at the prices entering into the computation. If she "measures" the changes for her personal appreciation by taking the prices of only two or three commodities as a yardstick, she is no less "scientific" and no more arbitrary than the sophisticated mathematicians in choosing their methods for the manipulation of the data of the market.""" # Murphy, Barnett, and Block 2010 quote: economic theory is geometry! Murphy, Barnett, Block 2010a claim that praxeology is akin to geometry and cannot be tested: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1175975762516512909/image.png """For the Austrian economist, the most fundamental problem we encounter is that apodictic economic theories cannot be empirically tested at all. Rather, they are aspects of praxeology, and, as such, can only be illustrated, not tested. For praxeologists, economic theories are equivalent to mathematical or geometrical claims, such as the Pythagorean Theorem, or to the assertion that the three angles of a triangle sum to 180 degrees. One can indeed illustrate such declarations, but it would be meaningless to even attempt to test them. Young in this regard points to the “unwillingness of the ‘Austrian school’ to pursue econometrics.” But Austrians are by no means “unwilling” to pursue econometrics; there are numerous praxeological publications that utilize such statistical techniques. All of them, however, illustrate, but do not purport to test, economic law.""" Young's response explains that even if Austrian logical claims follow qualitatively, they cannot explain magnitude quantitatively: """I never claim that the results in Young (2005) reject ABCT qualitatively. Quite the opposite: I report “a statistically significant, Hayekian allocative channel for monetary policy” (Young 2005, p. 281). However, I additionally claim that the “results suggest that Hayek’s theory [is] operative but lack[s] economic significance” (p. 275). Concluding that ABCT is not associated with economically significant effects (i.e., does not account for a large portion of reallocation’s variance) is a statement outside of the realm of pure theory.""""""Once it is accepted that quantitative, economic importance is something that pure theory can not speak to directly, quibbling about whether econometrics (or economic history) is testing or illustrating is an unfruitful exercise in semantics.""" Murphy, Barnett, Block 2010b repeat this claim in Section 4, where they also make several empirical claims and assert that they follow "apodictically" from praxeology: """Since Young (2010) appears interested in economic praxeological laws that are qualitative, not quantitative, here are a few, provided by Hoppe (1995): [....] Or as another example: Whenever minimum wage laws are enforced that require wages to be higher than existing market wages, involuntary unemployment will result.""" (note: Young was specifically asking for quantitative statements lol) # Vedder 1997 quote: if the theory's prediction is at odds with the stats, the stats are wrong! Vedder 1997 claims that if statistics contradict theoretical predictions, we should change the statistics, not the predictions! """Only partly tongue in cheek, I think it is legitimate to use Austrian praxeological principles to clarify some of the existing statistical mayhem. To illustrate, accept the Austrian proposition that wages are determined by the marginal productivity of labor. The rate of growth in aggregate prices over time, then, would equal that growth necessary to be consistent with this Austrian proposition. If Bosh's 1.1 point adjustment to the CPI leads to wage growth exceeding productivity change, while no adjustment leads to productivity changes exceeding wage growth, the correct adjustment is one that equates these two measures, perhaps 0.5 or 0.7 percentage points.""" Vedder 1997 claims that free markets are by definition economically efficient; therefore, measuring them isn't worth the time: """Even accepting the dominant method of modern economics, and believing that the use of empirical means to verify or falsify economic hypotheses is valid, the reality of data aggregation problems makes empirical exercises a hazardous and often dubious enterprise. On basic theoretical grounds, the problems of generalizing with any precision about the magnitude of price changes are substantial. In Rothbard's (1993) "evenly rotating economy" with freely operating market forces, the issue of aggregate economic performance is one that is either irrelevant or of a second order of importance. If economic agents are freely expressing their economic will in their decision making, the existing level of economic performance is optimal, and whether it is larger or smaller than in other time periods is not very important.""" #####c ##### # Randian economics: Objectivism and first principles #####o # friedman quote about A=A Friedman 1991: video: Friedman 1991: edited transcript: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/778349670724403312/unknown.png """The same thing is true of Ayn Rand, as her phrase about Hazlitt's supposed commitment to altruism suggests. Rand did not regard facts as relevant, as ways of testing her propositions. She derived everything from the basic proposition that A=A. And from that follows everything. But if it does, again, suppose two Objectivists, two disciples of Ayn Rand, disagree, or that a disciple disagrees with her. Both agree that A is A. There's no disagreement about that. But for one reason or another they have different views on another subject. How do they reconcile that difference? There is no way. And that's the basic reason for the stories that Barbara Branden tells in The Passion of Ayn Rand about what happened when people disagreed in any minute detail with Ayn Rand.""" #####c ##### # Hayekian Austrian business cycle theory: strong evidence against #####o # summary of ABCT Luther 2014: summarizes ABCT: 1: (market interest rate < natural interest rate) causes easy credit 2: easy credit causes excess capital investment 3: excess capital investment causes unsustainable growth (ie, ultimately unprofitable growth) 4: unsustainable capital projects fail and recession occurs: """[T]he Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich A. Hayek developed a unique theory of the business cycle. In their view, an unsustainable boom ensues when the rate of interest prevailing in the market falls below the natural rate. Mistaking the easy credit for a genuine increase in savings, entrepreneurs are led to take on more capital-intensive projects. According to the Austrians, the boom is characterized not only by an increase in aggregate production but also by a distortion of the structure of production. Once the errors are realized, a recession follows: aggregate production declines as the structure of production is repaired.""" graphical summary of ABCT: the Hayekian triangle: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/725744948686618736/unknown.png # structural analysis: young 2012 Kuehn 2013: reviewing Young 2012 The most sophisticated empirical research on Hayekian business-cycle theory to date is offered by Andrew Young (2012), who develops a measure of the length of the capital structure rather than relying on qualitative industrial or process classifications. He estimates the position of an industry in the capital structure with the total industry output requirement (TIOR), or the gross value of all other industries’ output required by an industry to generate one dollar’s worth of that industry’s final good. Industries that fall relatively early in the capital structure will use fewer inputs to produce their (gross) output, and so they will have a lower measured TIOR. Using this method, Young (2012) calculates the TIOR for sixty-five industries, and determines that the aggregated length of the capital structure measured using his methods is pro-cyclical and closely correlated with the federal funds rate from 1998 to 2009, as Hayekian theory suggests. One problem with this measure that Young (2012) points out is that it is not clear how much meaning can be ascribed to a given change in the TIOR. From 2008 to 2009, the aggregate TIOR fell from about 1.8 to a little over 1.7. Is this a large change or a small one? Does it matter for macroeconomic fluctuations? At this point, it is difficult to say. If nothing else, the empirical work suggests that Kaldor (1942, 363) was quite wrong in dismissing the lengthening of the structure of production as “one of those blind alleys of economic speculation which appear very suggestive for a time, but whose significance evaporates as soon as one tries to fit the theoretical conclusions more closely to the observed phenomena.” The theoretical discussion fits the best analyses of the observed phenomena quite well. Questions remain, however, about the strength of the Hayekian mechanisms or their significance for the business cycle. ^ Kuehn 2013 appendix, studies to review: xxx # empirics: recession size should predict growth size (it doesn't) Claeys 2015: graphical depiction of plucking model and actual data from Europe's 2008 recession: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/553972596367163392/unknown.png Kuehn 2013: Hayekian theory predicts that "boom size" should predict "bust size": """Another cutting critique grounded in an assessment of how well Hayek’s theory fits the data is Milton Friedman’s (1969, 1993) “plucking model” of the business cycle. [....] A correlation between the depth of a recession and the height of the subsequent boom would strongly imply that recessions are the consequence of a shock that had nothing to do with the preceding growth period, and that the recovery was just a reversion of the economy back to its stable growth path. Friedman found that in a data series going back to the late nineteenth century recession depths were correlated with the subsequent boom and not the prior boom. He called this the “plucking model” because it implied that recessions were caused by plucking the economy down from an otherwise steady growth path. In many ways, Friedman’s simple empirical exercise offers the greatest blow to Hayek of all the criticisms discussed here. A theory of the unsustainable boom is of little use if busts are not caused by booms.""" # empirics: monetary policy should predict recessions (it doesn't) Kuehn 2013: Hayekian theory poorly predicts recessions; neither tight or loose monetary policy, relative to the "natural" rate of interest, consistently precedes or postcedes recessions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/553974446269136914/unknown.png Figure 2, below, subtracts the real federal funds rate from this estimated natural rate. If this difference is equal to zero, then the actual federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve is equal to the best estimate of the natural rate of interest, and monetary policy is neutral. A positive value for the difference indicates tight monetary policy, while a negative value indicates loose monetary policy. Vertical lines are provided to indicate the start date of recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. [....] The recessions of the 1960s and 1970s at least have the virtue of exhibiting the pro-cyclical (albeit persistently loose) monetary stance required by Hayek. Far less is available for Austrians to work with in the case of the 1981-82 and 1990-91 recessions, which were not preceded by any monetary loosening at all. Regardless of the actual level of the real interest rate, if this rate is not below the natural rate – if monetary policy is not expansionary – there can be no unsustainable boom according to Hayekian business cycle theory. [....] Hayekians who think that the capital structure lengthens and contracts with the price signals sent by monetary policy are confronted with an awkward question: exactly what were entrepreneurs doing between 2005-06 and 2008? [....] Given the weak evidence for Hayek’s unsustainable boom, it seems far more plausible that Keynesian (or monetarist) forces drive the business cycle, and that the capital structure – behaving in an otherwise purely Hayekian manner – lengthens and contracts as a consequence the of the business cycle, rather than as its cause. # empirics: relative intermediate prices should decrease (they don't) Luther 2014: ABCT predicts that an increase in interest rates should cause crude and finished goods to increase in both quantity and price relative to intermediate goods: for both price and quantity and crude and finished goods, empirical results are statistically insignificant and opposite in sign to these predictions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/553983169938849793/unknown.png """If the Austrian view is empirically relevant, the authors surmise, a positive monetary shock should increase the production and prices of goods at early and late stages relative to the production and prices of goods at middle stages.""""""With the exception of early- to middle-stage prices, which responded positively to the productivity gap but negatively to TGt, the responses depicted in Figs. 1 and 2 are qualitatively similar. For the most part, the responses of the four ratios are small, statistically insignificant, and of the opposite sign as that predicted by the Austrian theory. From this, we conclude that our results are robust to selection of a measure of the natural rate and, accordingly, are more confident in our assessment that the available data provides little empirical support for the Austrian business cycle theory. # empirics: investment should go down when consumption goes up (it's the opposite) Kuehn 2013: Hayekian theory predicts that consumption and investment move oppositely; they move together: Cowen (1997) points out that over the business cycle, investment and consumption move together, a phenomenon he refers to as “co-movement”. [...] Hayek’s theory predicts that investment and consumption should move in opposite directions over the business cycle[.] [...] First, Prices and Production assumed that the economy starts in a position of full employment before the unsustainable boom begins. [...] [S]ince the economy is operating at capacity any increase in capital goods production has to come at the expense of consumer goods production. [...] [Second,] the upper-turning point [...] accounts for the end of the boom with the Ricardian assumption that capital intensification occurs at the expense of labor income, and that this tension between capital and labor ends the boom. [....] Garrison (2000, 2004) provides a supply-side response by assuming that capital intensive production processes are more productive than labor intensive production processes, so the move to capital intensive processes can accommodate a simultaneous increase in consumption and investment. [....] Hayek clearly expected a movement of consumption and investment in opposite directions: “an increase in the demand for consumer goods will tend to decrease rather than increase the demand for investment goods” [...] [I]f Garrison [...] is accurate, it is not clear what needs to be rebalanced in a market correction (i.e., a recession). [...] [T]he upper turning point occurred precisely because of this tension between consumption and investment. If that tension is explained away [...] then [...] the inevitable bust is explained away as well. # empirics: businesses should vary daily behavior with interest rates (they don't) Kuehn 2013: Hayekian theory ignores the fact that businesses largely ignore the interest rate for day-to-day operations: A more substantial rebuttal to Hayek’s concerns about a distorted capital structure is offered by Tullock (1987), who objects to the whole idea that firms care much about interest rates in determining the volume of production. Hayek’s theory requires that an artificially low interest rate makes production that takes a longer time more profitable than it otherwise would be, but if interest costs are not even considered by firms the whole theory falls apart. [....] He further noted that the reason why firms ignore interest rates in production decisions is that even highly capital intensive production processes (after all capital equipment has been acquired and installed) do not usually take a substantial amount of time to complete. Tullock’s experience with interest rates anticipates a finding by Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (2000) that as long as inflation is modest, firms ignore it in their decision making. Although entrepreneurial responses to interest rate variations (in Tullock’s case) or low inflation (in Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry’s case) need not be identical, the common conclusion of this and other behavioral research seems to be that these sorts of minor costs are discounted in the decision making process relative to larger concerns. If interest rates and inflation fail to drive distortionary production decisions it is hard to see why a market correction would be inevitable or even necessary. Interest rates are still critical for large capital expenditures, but the widely cited empirical work of Davis, Haltiwanger, and Schuh (1996) suggests that most job creation and destruction happens at large, mature establishments which are presumably primarily making capacity utilization decisions rather than new capital expenditure decisions. #####c ##### # Rothbardian solution to children: the free baby market! #####o # ethical child starvation Rothbard's ethical framework explicitly allows for parents to starve their children: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885694502877163540/unknown.png """As a corollary this means that, in the free society, no man may be saddled with the legal obligation to do anything for another, since that would invade the former's rights; the only legal obligation one man has to another is to respect the other man's rights. Applying our theory to parents and children, this means that a parent does not have the right to aggress against his children, but also that the parent should not have a legal obligation to feed, clothe, or educate his children, since such obligations would entail positive acts coerced upon the parent and depriving the parent of his rights. The parent therefore may not murder or mutilate his child, and the law properly outlaws a parent from doing so. But the parent should have the legal right not to feed the child, i.e., to allow it to die.""" # runaway freedom Rothbard's ethical framework grants ownership of children to its parents; children gain legal autonomy only once they run away from their parent's home: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885694764589137970/unknown.png """The mother, then, becomes at the birth of her child its "trustee-owner," legally obliged only not to aggress against the child's person, since the child possesses the potential for self-ownership. Apart from that, so long as the child lives at home, it must necessarily come under the jurisdiction of its parents, since it is living on property owned by those parents. Certainly the parents have the right to set down rules for the use of their home and property for all persons (whether children or not) living in that home. But when are we to say that this parental trustee jurisdiction over children shall come to an end? Surely any particular age (21,18, or whatever) can only be completely arbitrary. The clue to the solution of this thorny question lies in the parental property rights in their home. For the child has his full rights of self-ownership when he demonstrates that he has them in nature — in short, when he leaves or "runs away" from home. Regardless of his age, we must grant to every child the absolute right to run away and to find new foster parents who will voluntarily adopt him, or to try to exist on his own. Parents may try to persuade the runaway child to return, but it is totally impermissible enslavement and an aggression upon his right of self-ownership for them to use force to compel him to return. The absolute right to run away is the child's ultimate expression of his right of self-ownership, regardless of age.""" # free baby market Rothbard therefore proposes that parents may freely trade their children: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885695085898006559/unknown.png """Now if a parent may own his child (within the framework of non-aggression and runaway freedom), then he may also transfer that ownership to someone else. He may give the child out for adoption, or he may sell the rights to the child in a voluntary contract. In short, we must face the fact that the purely free society will have a flourishing free market in children. Superficially, this sounds monstrous and inhuman. But closer thought will reveal the superior humanism of such a market. For we must realize that there is a market for children now, but that since the government prohibits sale of children at a price, the parents may now only give their children away to a licensed adoption agency free of charge.10 This means that we now indeed have a child-market, but that the government enforces a maximum price control of zero, and restricts the market to a few privileged and therefore monopolistic agencies. The result has been a typical market where the price of the commodity is held by government far below the free-market price: an enormous "shortage" of the good. The demand for babies and children is usually far greater than the supply, and hence we see daily tragedies of adults denied the joys of adopting children by prying and tyrannical adoption agencies. In fact, we find a large unsatisfied demand by adults and couples for children, along with a large number of surplus and unwanted babies neglected or maltreated by their parents. Allowing a free market in children would eliminate this imbalance, and would allow for an allocation of babies and children away from parents who dislike or do not care for their children, and toward foster parents who deeply desire such children. Everyone involved: the natural parents, the children, and the foster parents purchasing the children, would be better off in this sort of society.11""" #####c #####c ##### # # miscellaneous economics # #####o ##### # day trading and individual investors #####o # terminology individual investor = retail investor = a person who trades stocks institutional investor = a firm that trades stocks day trade = buying and selling 1 stock more than 3 times in a day pattern day trader = PDT = an individual investor who day trades more than 5 times in a given 90 day period high-frequency trader = HFT = HFI = an investor who buys and sells stocks more frequently than 1 trade/second, on average # summary of personal finance self-help Olen 2012: why self-help financial advice has taken off with little critique: """By 1999, financial services advertising would be responsible for almost a third of newspaper ad monies, though how these dollars were distributed through the media universe would shift as the Internet assumed increasing prominence. In 2002, financial advertising would total $5.9 billion, rising to $8.8 billion in 2010, and just under $9.1 billion in 2011. In fact, Nielsen found that the top increases in promotional spending by category for the first part of 2011 were in automobile insurance, bank services, and financial investment services—all financially oriented categories. So, instead of freeing publishers and station managers from the tyranny of complaints from the auto, real estate, and retail industries, the emphasis on personal finance ultimately created yet another powerful advertising client base that would need to be appeased. As a result, it became increasingly difficult to rock the boat by questioning the assumptions behind much of the financial information presented, rendering much of the advice glib at best and suspect at worst.""" # day trading unprofitable Chague 2019: most high-frequency traders lose money; like a casino, the longer you trade, the more likely you'll lose money: 30% of traders were profitable who only traded for 1 day; 15% of <51 days; ~7% of <301 days; and 3% of >300 days: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/805893383343046756/EtBgnj1WMAMPP4g.png n=19,646 Brazilians who first day traded the mini-Ibovespa future btwn 2013-15, tracked as a panel until 2017; using Brazilian SEC data (high-quality) on individual trades Chague 2019: new high-frequency traders have very small profits; of the 1551 people who traded for >300 days in total, just 47 (3%, 1 in 33) made a profit after fees and just 17 (1%, 1 in 91) made more than Brazilian minimum wage (~$2/hr); 90 of 91 long-term day traders would've made more money doing almost any other job! https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/805893608104394752/EtBher5WMAEMFZG.png n=19,646 Brazilians who first day traded the mini-Ibovespa future btwn 2013-15, tracked as a panel until 2017; using Brazilian SEC data (high-quality) on individual trades # frequent trading unprofitable Barber 2000: actively trading stocks hurts your investments: the fifth of traders who traded the most got (on average) annual net returns of 11.4%, which is ~40% smaller than the fifth who traded the least, who saw returns of 18.5% (slightly ahead of the market): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/805967480160911390/Es9Pxu2W8AAf-ZX.png ^ Barber 2000: table w/ monthly numbers behind above annual figures: # irrational trading behavior Barber 2013: the "disposition effect" occurs when traders too quickly sell "winners" (stocks that went up in value since purchase) and too slowly sell "losers" (down since purchase): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/806050868532346880/unknown.png ^ Barber 2013: this effect also occurs in tax-deferred accounts where tax effects are irrelevant: ^ Barber 2013: this effect also occurs in experimental studies where probabilities are known: # no evidence of learning from investors Chague 2019: panel regressions on the 1,551 people who traded for >300 days provide no evidence for "learning"; even after controlling for the rise of high-frequency traders (HFTs), the effect of trading for an additional day (seq) on profit after fees (dependent variable) was insignificantly different from 0 (see model 7): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/805893998094319676/EtBizKuXMAAooTt.png n=19,646 Brazilians who first day traded the mini-Ibovespa future btwn 2013-15, tracked as a panel until 2017; using Brazilian SEC data (high-quality) on individual trades #####c ##### # expected utility theory and prospect theory #####o # historical papers von Neumann and Morgenstern 1944: Theory of Games and Economic Behavior: Markowitz 1952a: Portfolio Selection: Markowitz 1952b: The Utility of Wealth: Allais 1953: Le Comportement de l'Homme Rationnel devant le Risque: ^ Wikipedia summary: Kahneman and Tversky 1979: Prospect Theory: # expected utility maximization bad expected utility theory results in absurd consequences: Myopic Loss Aversion is suggested as an alternative: a combination of loss aversion (people consider only changes in wealth and overvalue losses, eg loss = 2x as bad as again) and mental accounting (people consider events as isolated incidents instead of as series or in relation to their overall wealth): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/737346065983864862/unknown.png #####c ##### # asymmetric information in insurance markets #####o # asymmetric information in insurance markets insurance markets with asymmetric information and two types of consumers (high-risk and low-risk) result in an externality in which low-risk consumers under-purchase insurance: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/738068647934820355/unknown.png asymmetric information is indicated by a positive correlation between risk and coverage (bivariate probit positive correlation test): extension of the above to multivariate probit positive correlation: # testing mixed results: Dardanoni, Forcina and Donni (2016) found mixed results. Their sample was 2286 seniors from the 2002 Health and Retirement Study. Using the PC test, they found strong evidence for asymmetric information (and adverse selection) in favor of the purchase of Medigap plans. (Riskier individuals bought more coverage.) However, using their multivariate PC model, they found that this correlation varied significantly across personal demographics. For example, they found that people with higher cognitive abilities were more likely to purchase Medigap plans but less likely to use the hospital than their peers. This suggests that people with higher cognitive abilities are advantageously selecting into the plan: even those who don’t “need” the insurance (as much as their peers) are buying into it. Sirmans (2017) found positive results. Their sample was 92725 people from a survey conducted by JD Power and Associates about insurance plans. Using the simple PC model, Sirmans found a strong negative correlation between risk and deductibles size (higher risk – smaller deductibles) and strong positive correlation between risk and premium (higher risk – higher premiums). Both of these suggest that adverse selection is occurring. Interestingly, they found no evidence that the proportion of people in a state in a group insurance plan -- which should reduce adverse selection -- was associated with adverse selection. moral hazard not inefficient? # solutions mandatory partial insurance + supplementary private insurance: #####c ##### # economic freedom index / index of economic freedom is a joke #####o # rule of law the IEF includes 12 sub-indices: Rule of Law: **Property Rights** [Physical property rights, Intellectual property rights, Strength of investor protection, Risk of expropriation, Quality of land administration], **Judicial Effectiveness** [Judicial independence, Quality of the judicial process, Favoritism in decisions of government officials], **Government Integrity** [Public trust in politicians, Irregular payments and bribes, Transparency of government policymaking, Absence of corruption, Perceptions of corruption, Governmental and civil service transparency] * If your country has strong IP laws, it's rated more economically free * If your country has fast property deed transfers, it's rated more economically free * If your country uses eminent domain and pays pittances for property, but doesn't expropriate it, your country is rated more economically free * If your country provides strong investor protection laws (which allow shareholders to sue executives over their actions), it's rated more economically free * If your country has higher trust in politicians, it's rated more economically free * If your country has highly transparent government, it's rated more economically free * If your country has lower corruption, it's rated more economically free # government size the IEF includes 12 sub-indices: Government Size: **Tax Burden** [The top marginal tax rate on individual income, The top marginal tax rate on corporate income, The total tax burden as a percentage of GDP], **Government Spending** [government spending that exceeds 30 percent of GDP leads to much worse scores in a quadratic fashion (for example, doubling spending yields four times less freedom)] **Fiscal Health** [Average deficits as a percentage of GDP for the most recent three years (80 percent of score), Debt as a percentage of GDP (20 percent of score)] * If your country has high marginal tax rates but lots of loopholes, you're rated less economically free than a country with a higher flat tax * If your country has lower deficits to GDP or lower debt to GDP ratios, it's rated more economically free # regulatory efficiency the IEF includes 12 sub-indices: Regulatory Efficiency: **Business Freedom** [_Starting a business_ (procedures (number), time (days), cost (% of income per capita), minimum capital (% of income per capita)), _Obtaining a license_ (procedures (number), time (days), cost (% of income per capita)), _Closing a business_ (time (years), cost (% of estate), recovery rate (cents on the dollar)), _Getting electricity_ (procedures (number), time (days), cost (% of income per capita))], **Labor Freedom** [Ratio of minimum wage to the average value added per worker, Hindrance to hiring additional workers, Rigidity of hours, Difficulty of firing redundant employees, Legally mandated notice period, Mandatory severance pay, Labor force participation rate], **Monetary Freedom** [The weighted average inflation rate for the most recent three years, Price controls] * If your country has faster business registration, it's rated more economically free * If your country has higher laborforce participation, it's rated more economically free * If your country has low-capital startups, it's rated more economically free * If your country has low inflation, it's rated more economically free # market openness the IEF includes 12 sub-indices: Market Openness: **Trade Freedom** [trade-weighted average tarif rate, nontarif barriers (NTBs)], **Investment Freedom** [national treatment of foreign investment, foreign investment code, restrictions on land ownership, sectoral investment restrictions, expropriation of investments without fair compensation, foreign exchange controls, capital controls], **Financial Freedom** [extent of government regulation of financial services, degree of state intervention in banks and other financial firms through direct and indirect ownership, government influence on the allocation of credit, extent of financial and capital market development, openness to foreign competition.] * Things not included: "Unionization" isn't included in Labor Freedom; "State-Owned Enterprises" and "State Employees" aren't in Government Spending; #####c ##### # trade #####o # consensus most economists support free trade: # trade imbalances marxian theory rejects the theory of one price: : https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634648987244167178/unknown.png trade is very rarely balanced (against the mainstream Ricardian theory, as Marxian theory would suggest): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/546905862329860110/unknown.png exchange rates are predicted by labor costs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/546925354233626624/unknown.png exchange rates are stable around labor costs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/546925975552786442/unknown.png # elephant graph elephant graph thesis: the poor and rich have both benefitted from globalism, but the (Western) middle class have not: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640926089820241920/elephant-graph-post-fig1.png the elephant graph thesis -- of declining income inequality -- holds only if including China, the exUSSR, and Japan: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634642729627942923/unknown.png #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # race, racialism, scientific racism, and scientific anti-racism [axis three] # # #####o summary: Racialism, "scientific racism", and "race realism" describe the belief that human population groups have large, socially-important differences in phenotypes caused by differences in frequencies of genes. Scientific consensus and scientific evidence support scientific anti-racism, the position that genetic differences cause few socially-important differences between human populations. note: genetics, intelligence, and violence are complicated topics. for an excellent long-form introduction for laypeople, see Rutherford 2020: How To Argue With A Racist, in which a geneticist reviews the arguments for scientific anti-racism: ##### # # scientific consensus against racialism # #####o ##### # lack of taboo against scientific racist research #####o # summary Scientific racists constantly try to claim that their views are mainstream science, but are repressed by informal taboos on their research or formal institutional censorship of their views. In reality, scientific racist views are a small minority that frequently publishes and receives extensive media coverage (suggesting the "taboo" is not real). This minority is mostly ignored by the vast majority which thinks their views are absurd (which is why few people respond to scientific racist surveys). # lack of censorship Tsai 2018: it is not taboo to study race and genetics; for example, the NIH funded 1300 studies examining the link between race, genetics, and health, but just 44 studies examining the link between race, racism, and health: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982325399210045600/unknown.png """In the most recent NIH Biennial Report to Congress, for example, the words “genomic,” “genome,” and “genetic” are used a total of 556 times. In comparison, other words such as “social determinants of health,” “discrimination,” “poverty,” “socioeconomic status,” “racism,” and “sexism” appeared a total of 15 times in the entirety of the report’s 441 pages. In the decade between 1994 and 2005, the NIH funded 22,000 studies investigating genomics, 1,300 of which discussed race, genes and disease. The number of grants awarded to research the connection between health, racism and racial discrimination? Only 44.""" # failure of race realists to demonstrate taboo Jackson and Winston 2020: scientific racists claim their views are taboo and also mainstream; in reality, their top writers have long publication records and high citation indexes (juiced up, in part, by constantly citing each other): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1015739379110645790/unknown.png Jackson and Winston 2020: scientific racists claim their views face physical violence; yet in reality, in just one year, anti-racist academics have received more death threats than racist academics have received over 70 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1015742532749111417/unknown.png #####c ##### # consensus in genetics about racialism: against #####o # positions of major institutions ASGH 2018: the American Society of Human Genetics opposes racialism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982324959365984316/unknown.png Genetics demonstrates that humans cannot be divided into biologically distinct subcategories. Although there are clear observable correlations between variation in the human genome and how individuals identify by race, the study of human genetics challenges the traditional concept of different races of humans as biologically separate and distinct. This is validated by many decades of research, including recent examples. Most human genetic variation is distributed as a gradient, so distinct boundaries between population groups cannot be accurately assigned. There is considerable genetic overlap among members of different populations. Such patterns of genome variation are explained by patterns of migration and mixing of different populations throughout human history. In this way, genetics exposes the concept of “racial purity” as scientifically meaningless. #####c ##### # consensus in anthropology about racialism: against #####o # wagner 2016 survey of anthropologists: scientific racism is a fringe view Wagner et al 2016: the vast majority of anthropological scientists reject scientific racist beliefs: """Table 2 (middle column) provides a summary of the reported levels of agreement and disagreement with statements on race. Only six of the 53 statements reflect undecided perspectives or lack of general consensus among professional anthropologists (including, e.g., whether race influences health and whether genetic ancestry testing undermines biological conceptions of race). **Fourteen statements evoked unified responses from a super-majority, with professional anthropologists (a) rejecting the idea that humans can be subdivided into biological races; [rejecting] the idea that races are biologically determined; [rejecting] the existence of discrete boundaries among races;** and [rejecting] the use of genetic ancestry when making child placement or college admission decisions and (b) accepting the existence of biological variation; overlapping trait distributions; **[accepting] the superiority of genetic ancestry over race as a proxy for genetic relationships between peoples;** [accepting] the importance of understanding the relationship among race, genetics and health; and [accepting] the need to take genetic ancestry into account when diagnosing and treating certain conditions. Informal analysis of the data did not reveal any noticeable differences in perspectives between subfields.""" # chow-white and green 2013 survey of publication trends Chow-White and Green 2013: there may have been an increase of race realist supporting articles in major scientific journals since the 2001 human genome project finished: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954527690378051626/unknown.png # lieberman 2003 survey of publication trends Lieberman et al 2003: in physical anthropology, racialism has been dying since the 1900s: of race articles in 1920's 70% supported racialism; in 1990 just 15% did: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954474649901740042/unknown.png #####c ##### # consensus in psychology about racialism: shitty surveys by racialists #####o # rinderman surveys and their flaws (small sample, likely strongly biased toward scientific racists) Jackson and Winston 2020: the Rindermann-Becker-Coyle surveys achieved a 5% response rate, with just ~70 respondents per paper, despite asking 1345 people; this suggests *against* the mainstream status of scientific racism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1015738888578412596/unknown.png Rindermann Becker Coyle 2016: among 71 respondents (of 1345 asked, 5.2% rate, w/ strong lean toward scientific racists) recruited from people who'd published in Intelligence, Cognitive Psychology, and other intelligence-related journals, on a scale from 100 (explains all variation in intelligence) to 0 (explains none), respondents on average reported "culture" at 14, "genes" at 20, "education quantity" at 14, "education quality" at 15: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/721798459514028122/unknown.png Rindermann Becker Coyle 2017: among ~60 respondents (of 1345 asked, 4.4% rate, w/ strong lean toward scientific racists) recruited from people who'd published in Intelligence, Cognitive Psychology, and other intelligence-related journals, respondents thought that Europe and its colonies would see little IQ gains while East Asia, India, and Africa would each see about 7 points of IQ gains: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1015715128374726727/unknown.png Rindermann Becker Coyle 2020: among fewer than 70 respondents (of 1345 asked, N not reported, w/ strong lean toward scientific racists) recruited from people who'd published in Intelligence, Cognitive Psychology, and other intelligence-related journals, respondents thought most respondents put the "ratings of the environmental vs. genetic determinants of the US Black-White difference in IQ" near the "middle", meaning near-equally environmental and genetic: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1015719485086376037/unknown.png # gottfredson's "mainstream statement on intelligence": hand-picked hereditarians, still could only get 52 signatories Gottfredson 1994: of 131 handpicked pro-hereditarian experts asked to endorse the statement, 100 responded; of those, 48 refused to sign, and just 4 of those claimed "possible political repercussions to them of signing it (such as loss of funding or other support)": Wall Street Journal version, Gottfredson 1994: (Intelligence version, Gottfredson 1997: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1015711908218798170/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1015713301558218873/unknown.png ^ APA president Donald Campbell: just 10 of 52 signatories were actually experts in intelligence measurement: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1015710865531609088/unknown.png """In response to the controversy that arose over publication of this book, Linda Gottfredson (University of Delaware) published a 25-point summary of research findings supporting Herrnstein and Murray's position, and this was published with the list of endorsers in an article opposite to the editorial page in The Wall Street Journal ("Mainstream Science," 1994). Of the 52 signatories, there were 10 whom I would regard as measurement experts. I do not have a list of those who were asked to sign and refused, but I know they included Lee Cronbach. Robert Sternberg, and myself. Although not directly referring to the Wall Street Journal piece, the APA Task Force report Intelligence: Knowm and Unknowns (Neisser et al., 1996) is relevant, but because I regard it as too noncommittal and inadequate in presenting the environmentalist explanation for race differences, it does not remove the need for the arguments that follow.""" ^ SPLC 2020: of the signers -- including Gottfredson -- were recipients of funding from the Pioneer Fund, a white-supremacist organization: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1015713908188795023/unknown.png # snyderman and rothman surveys: large sample, high response rate, probably fairly representative Snyderman and Rothman 1987: among 661 respondents (of 1020 asked, 64.8% response rate) recruited from major psychological/sociological/genetic associations, on the black-white different in IQ, 45% believe it to be genetic & environmental, 15% believe it to be entirely environmental, and 1% believe it to be entirely genetic (adjusted: 73.8%, 24.6%, 1.6%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1015704914300772493/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1015877560833413161/unknown.png """This is perhaps the central question in the IQ controversy. Respondents were asked to express their opinion of the role of genetic differences in the black-white IQ differential. Forty-five percent believe the difference to be a product of both genetic and environmental variation, compared to only 15% who feel the difference is entirely due to environmental variation. Twenty-four percent of experts do not believe there are sufficient data to support any reasonable opinion, and 14% did not respond to the question. Eight experts (1%) indicate a belief in an entirely genetic determination. The source of socioeconomic class differences in IQ. The case for genetic determination is even more strongly felt for socioeconomic status (SES) differences. Fifty-five percent of experts choose the genetic--environmental option, as opposed to 12% for strictly environmental. Eighteen percent do not feel there are sufficient data, and 15% were nonrespondents. Only one respondent attributes the difference entirely to genetics.""" ^ related book: Snyderman and Rothman 1988: #####c ##### # scope among the general public #####o # extent of racialist views among americans Morning Brueckner Nelson 2019: when asked agreement for "genetic differences contribute to income inequality between Black and White people", 20% of white people agreed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1008901857499938836/unknown.png #####c ##### # persuasion against racialist views ##### # todo Tucker-Drobb and Bates 2016: TODO XXX: """A core hypothesis in developmental theory predicts that genetic influences on intelligence and academic achievement are suppressed under conditions of socioeconomic privation and more fully realized under conditions of socioeconomic advantage: a Gene × Childhood Socioeconomic Status (SES) interaction. Tests of this hypothesis have produced apparently inconsistent results. We performed a meta-analysis of tests of Gene × SES interaction on intelligence and academic-achievement test scores, allowing for stratification by nation (United States vs. non–United States), and we conducted rigorous tests for publication bias and between-studies heterogeneity. In U.S. studies, we found clear support for moderately sized Gene × SES effects. In studies from Western Europe and Australia, where social policies ensure more uniform access to high-quality education and health care, Gene × SES effects were zero or reversed.""" Rosenberg et al 2018: TODO XXX: # education emphasizing the real but small genetic variation among human groups can decrease racist views Hubbard 2017: non-experimental trial: among 296 undergraduates, learning about the lack of genetic basis for race significantly and substantially increased correct non-essentialist beliefs about race (by 13-38% on four questions): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013251406125355089/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013251443400114186/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013251976588431390/unknown.png Donovan et al 2019: RCT: in three samples (8-9th graders, 9-12th graders, adults), learning about genetic variation within and between racial groups causally decreases prejudice toward other racial groups: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013250498360524800/unknown.png # education emphasizing racial differences in disease risk can increase racist views Donovan 2017: non-experimental trial: among 153 students at two California high schools, those who learned about different disease risk between racial groups ("Caucasian", "African American", "Ashkenazi") believed that more genetic variation occurred between races and were more likely to support genetic essentialist racist views than those that learned about different disease risk without mentioning race: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013254151448309900/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013254311930765392/unknown.png Donovan 2016: among 86 ninth-graders, reading a race-based description of sickle-cell anemia increased genetically-based racism scores, while reading a population-based description did not: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013265405369909298/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013258259597115402/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013258388362235977/unknown.png # reducing belief in racial essentialism: genetics education Harmon 2019: Donovan 2021: . Specifically, one needs to understand that the causes of within-group variation in a trait can be different from the causes of between-group variation in that same trait. That is, even when trait differences between individuals within a population are entirely inherited, differences between populations can still be caused entirely by environmental factors (Feldman & Lewontin, 1975). The combined contribution of all of these genomic variants to any group level difference in a complex human trait is predicted to be small, possibly spurious, and largely dependent on the environment according to population genetic theory (Rosenberg et al., 2018). Empirically, we also know that intergenerational scores on IQ tests have changed over time because of improvements in the human environment To claim that racial disparities in education are caused by genetic differences between races on the basis of heritability statistics that are derived within populations, as Jensen (1969) did, is at best a conceptual error (Feldman & Lewontin, 1975), and at worst, an ideological distortion of scientific knowledge (Donovan, 2015a; Graves, 2015; Lewontin, 1996) that is not supported by contemporary population genetic theory on polygenic trait variation #####c #####c ##### # # genetics and racialism # #####o ##### # genetic variation and racialism #####o # predictions: what should we see if divergent selection drove racial differences? Edge and Rosenberg 2015: if inter-group differences in a given biological function are driven by genetic drift (no selection), we should expect inter-group differences to be near the average for neutral traits (ie, near FST); if driven by divergent selection, larger than average; if by convergent selection, lower than average: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885256566897528892/unknown.png """In agreement with similar efforts using different models, we show that the expected degree to which two groups differ on a neutral quantitative trait is not strongly affected by the number of genetic loci that influence the trait: neutral trait differences are expected to have a magnitude comparable to the genetic differences at a single neutral locus.""" # variation: mostly by distance Handley 2007: human variation is highly clinal (it fits isolation by distance, IBD) rather than racial; geographic distance along landmasses explains 76% of genetic distance between individuals: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/450503128886935552/unknown.png ^ data source for above graph: Linz et al 2007: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954528196739629056/unknown.png human variation is highly clinal (it fits isolation by distance, IBD) rather than racial: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641982438238715904/F3.png In the light of these results, and in agreement with extensive studies of classical genetic markers (Cavalli-Sforza et al. 1994), it seems that gradual variation and isolation by distance rather than major genetic discontinuities is typical of global human genetic diversity. Obviously, this does not imply that genetic discontinuities do not exist on a more local scale, for example, between people from different linguistic groups (e.g., Barbujani and Sokal 1990; Sokal et al. 1990). It also does not mean that no differences whatsoever exist between continental groups. In fact, what Rosenberg et al. (2002) have shown is that given enough markers and the extraordinary power of Structure, the tiny amounts of genetic differences that exist between continents can also be discerned. However, this should not obscure the fact that on a worldwide scale, clines are a better representation of the human diversity than clades, and that continents do not represent more substantial discontinuities in such clines than many other geographical and cultural barriers. # graphic representation of clinal variation Cavalli-Sforza 1996: map of Biasutti 1959's table of human skin colors of indigenous populations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954512576073564200/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954515063396524152/unknown.png # example of clinal variation: lactose persistence Ingram et al 2022: variation of lactase persistence predicted by prevalence of five known lactase persistence genes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954505073403236362/unknown.png Itan 2010: variation of lactase persistence predicted by prevalence of four known lactase persistence genes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954503919566987314/unknown.png # example of clinal variation: sickle cell anemia Gomez, Hirbo, and Tishkoff 2014: sickle cell anemia alleles closely follows malaria prevalence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954506090727493742/unknown.png # variation: mostly shared Li 2008: the vast majority (90%) of human genetic variation occurs within, not between, populations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/450500884217200661/F3.large.jpg We carried out an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) (18, 19) to partition overall genetic variation into three components: within-population (WP), among-population-within-group (i.e., geographical region) (AP/WG), and among geographical region (AG). **The 51 populations are assigned to the seven geographical regions shown in Fig. 1A. The results are similar among autosomal chromosomes: the WP, AP/WG, and AG components explain 88.9 ± 0.3%, 2.1 ± 0.05%, and 9.0 ± 0.3% (mean ± SD across 22 chromosomes) of the variance, respectively (Fig. 3A).** Rosenberg 2003: """The average proportion of genetic differences between individuals from different human populations only slightly exceeds that between unrelated individuals from a single population. That is, the within-population component of genetic variation, estimated here as 93 to 95% (Table 1), accounts for most of human genetic diversity.""" # variation: most SNP alleles are present in most populations (but not all are!) the vast majority (86%) of SNPs in the average human's genome are common among all humans population groups ("cosmopolitan"): 84.7 million SNPs, 3.6 million short indels, 60k structural variants (>99% of SNPs with frequency >1%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/511289755938455563/unknown.png """Although most common variants are shared across the world, rarer variants are typically restricted to closely related populations (Fig. 1a); 86% of variants were restricted to a single continental group.""""""The majority of variants in the data set are rare: ~64 million autosomal variants have a frequency <0.5%, ~12 million have a frequency between 0.5% and 5%, and only ~8 million have a frequency >5% (Extended Data Fig. 3a). Nevertheless, the majority of variants observed in a single genome are common: just 40,000 to 200,000 of the variants in a typical genome (1–4%) have a frequency <0.5% (Fig. 1c and Extended Data Fig. 3b).""" this is unsurprising, as >80% of human SNP alleles are cosmopolitan: # variation: fst 2010 review: humans have a low F_st value: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/541320761307168768/unknown.png More recent work suggests that the human species’ FST could actually be lower, between 0.05 and 0.13 23, 24, 25, 26, 27 for autosomal SNPs (Table 1), in other words between one-third and one-half of that observed in gorilla (Gorilla gorilla; FST = 0.38 [28]) and between Western and Eastern chimpanzee (FST = 0.32 [15]) despite humans occupying a much broader geographic area [29]. In short, not only do humans show the lowest species diversity among primates [30] but are also subdivided into populations that are more closely related than any other primate species, with the possible exception of bonobos (Pan paniscus) [18]. [....] The limited degree of differentiation among human populations does not suggest a history of long-term isolation and differentiation, but rather that genome variation was mostly shaped by our comparatively recent origin from a small number of founders 32, 33 who dispersed to colonize the whole planet 34, 35. isolation by distance explains most human variation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/564359627832033311/unknown.png [T]he emerging scientific consensus is that while isolation by distance explained a large proportion of human population pair-wise Fst-values, cluster, the computational placeholder for race, explained <2% (Rosenberg et al., 2005; Handley et al., 2007). Thus, the indistinctiveness Fst-value argument, as construed here against the idea of biological reality of human races, is not simply about crude Fst measures. It also takes into consideration the part of Fst quantitatively explained by cluster/race (Table ​(Table2).2). So it goes beyond Wright's qualitative guideline about the use of Fst. The argument thus has two quantitative components, the unadjusted Fst-values and the adjusted values of cluster/race covariate. It can thus be considered the quantitative equivalent of the qualitative argument of “lack of distinction” Darwin used to question the taxonomic wisdom of categorizing humans into races in natural classification since the categories cannot be objectively defined (Maglo, 2011). #####c ##### # genetic identification and racialism #####o # history of failure the history of classification is a history of inconsistency: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/541323384504713216/unknown.png # genetic identification has low importance being able to identify races from genetic variation doesn't mean that that genetic variation is meaningful: """The largest misconception of this approach is that it ignores the fact that isolation by distance explains the vast majority of variation in human allele frequencies. Thus, 75 percent of human allele frequency variation is explained by geographic distance. This means that it is possible to produce the appearance of clustering simply by where one samples genetic variation. Serre and Paabo demonstrated that heterogeneous sampling gave rise to genetic clusters that were biologically meaningless. This is precisely what is occurring in biomedical research in the United States.""" just because we can identify something doesn't mean it's biologically important: Leslie 2015 divided Britain into >10 different genetic groups based on recent (<1000yr) migrations, but different British populations do not seem meaningfully different: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/564361049546162176/nature14230-f1.png # genetic identification is valid we can identify various genetic clusters (for any arbitary number of clusters): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/721804792166350878/unknown.png racial populations can be very accurately identified using large numbers of common SNPs (2C, error ~.12%); however, using larger numbers of races (2D, ~3%) or intermixed populations (2E, ~10%) significantly increases error: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/726062602337124392/F2.png """[T]he answer to the question “How often is a pair of individuals from one population genetically more dissimilar than two individuals chosen from two different populations?” depends on the number of polymorphisms used to define that dissimilarity and the populations being compared. The answer, ω can be read from Figure 2.""""""The effect of population sampling becomes more pronounced when ≥1000 loci are available. In the microarray data set, Math drops to zero at 1000 loci if only distinct populations are sampled. With geographically intermediate and admixed populations added, however, Math reaches an asymptotic value of 3.1%, CC remains well above zero, and even CT does not reach zero (microarray data, Figure 2, C and D; Table 1).""" categorization based on ancestry outperforms categorization based on race: Our findings indicate that ancestry cross-classifies ethno-linguistic group as well as continent and race. To expound this point, Western Asian ancestry currently exists at its highest frequency in peoples from the Caucasus Mountains and the Levant and is the major ancestry in Abkhazian, Georgian, and Druze samples. Yet, significant amounts of Western Asian ancestry are present in samples with origins ranging from Morocco to Mongolia and from England to Ethiopia. That is, Western Asian ancestry simultaneously exists in Africa, Asia, and Europe, as well as in the US racial categories Black or African American, Asian, and White. Thus, in contrast to race, ancestry is a valid genomic classifier. # identification: Tang and Risch 2005 is a weak study Tang and Risch's 2005 study: ^ this study uses flawed methodology: Maglo et. al. 2016 "Curiously, [Tang 2005] perform[s] cluster analysis on admixed populations by bypassing [the correlated allele model]" ^ this study uses flawed methodology: Graves 2011: """[T]he authors admit that they did not engage the admixture option in Structure. Given that two of the populations in question, US blacks and Mexican Americans are known to be admixed, this is a major error.""""""In the case of African Americans there is excellent indication that an admixture analysis would have shown quite different results. Another study using a much larger number of genetic markers (a full genome scan of about 250,000 SNPs) indicated that African American admixture ranged from as high as 99 percent to as low as 1 percent with a median value of 18%.""" # identification: neanderthal DNA the average East Asian individual has ~55 Mb of Neanderthal DNA (100% of 55), South Asian ~55 Mb (100%), European ~51 Mb (93%), American ~50 Mb (91%), African ~17 (31%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/674648134667993102/gr2_lrg.png Eurasian people admixed heavily backwards into africa: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641982491430748200/F1.png Campbell and Tishkoff 2010: evidence for the out of Africa theory: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568514332220981261/nihms235952f2.jpg quantification and direction of admixture among modern humans and other populations (neanderthals, denisovans, 4th group) https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542030344333950986/nature12886-f8.png #####c #####c ##### # # intelligence and racialism # #####o ##### # evolution of intelligence and racialism: genetics #####o # evolution measured through gwas Bird 2021: the within-family difference in observed polygenic scores (PGS) for higher educational attainment (EA) and cognitive performance (CP) in Lee 2018, represented by the black line, falls easily within the null distribution of random shuffling and is not significant: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885253658206416946/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885253744017690684/unknown.png """The claims for large, immutable group differences in intelligence and educational attainment are not supported in the least by these analyses.""" Bird 2021: even using a 30pt IQ gap between Europeans and Africans and assuming h^2=.5, just ~15% of variance in IQ could be explained by genetics -- and this difference of ~6 IQ points could with equal likelihood result in higher scores of either Europeans or Africans: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885266830267142274/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885266934877270046/unknown.png Bird 2021: genes associated with educational attainment and cognitive performance are less differentiated than control genes not associated with either, which actually suggests *convergent* selection (see Edge and Rosenberg 2015): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885258060111687700/unknown.png # background on limits of gwas and race Bird 2021: GWAS has limited ability to predict phenotypic outcomes like intelligence and income, and is often based on culturally biased and socially determined data: # evolution measured through gwama: selection measured with sroh Joshi et al 2015: gene-wide association meta-analysis (GWAMA) using data from 102 studies (N=3542224) found no evidence for greater selection for education or for height among populations of African, European, Finnish, or isolated European ancestry: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636626894715879495/unknown.png """Since directional dominance is predicted for traits under directional evolutionary selection, this study provides evidence that increased stature and cognitive function have been positively selected in human evolution, whereas many important risk factors for late-onset complex diseases may not have been.""""""We therefore assessed this by conducting stratified and covariate analyses. We found effects of similar magnitude and in the same direction for all four traits across isolated and non-isolated European, Finnish, African, Hispanic, East Asian and South and Central Asian populations (Extended Data Fig. 5a, Supplementary Table 3).""" ^ method: Joshi 2015: explanation of SROH: """High-density genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data can now be used to assess genome-wide homozygosity directly, using genomic runs of homozygosity (ROH). Such runs are inferred to be homozygous-by-descent and are common in human populations. Summed ROH (SROH) is the sum of the length of these ROH, in megabases of DNA. FROH is the ratio of SROH to the total length of the genome. Like pedigree-based F (with which it is highly correlated), FROH estimates the probability of being homozygous at any site in the genome. FROH has been shown to vary widely within and between populations and is a powerful method of detecting genome-wide homozygosity effects.""" # genetic diversity and intelligence genetic heterozygosity is associated with increased cognition, education, height, and lung capacity: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636623143443759166/nature14618-f2.png #####c ##### # evolution of intelligence and racialism: cold winter theory #####o # todo The evolutionary reasoning has also been critiqued by research that casts doubt on the validity of the “Cold Winters theory” (MacEachern, 2006; Pesta & Poznanski, 2014; Wicherts et al., 2010) MacEachern, S. (2006). Africanist archaeology and ancient IQ: Racial science and cultural evolution in the twenty-first century. World Archaeology, 38(1), 72–92. Pesta, B. J., & Poznanski, P. J. (2014). Only in America: Cold winters theory, race, IQ and well-being. Intelligence, 46, 271–274 Wicherts, J. M., Borsboom, D., & Dolan, C. V. (2010). Evolution, brain size, and the national IQ of peoples around 3000 years B.C. Personality and Individual Differences, 48, 104–106. # anthropological data: climate not key driver Bailey 2009: the main driver of historical human brain size growth was social competition, not climate; temperate climates had the largest human brain sizes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/507656640053641216/unknown.png We provide a multivariate analysis that enables the simultaneous assessment of variables representing each of these potential selective forces. Data were collated for latitude, prevalence of harmful parasites, mean annual temperature, and variation in annual temperature for the location of 175 hominid crania dating from 1.9 million to 10 thousand years ago. We also included a proxy for population density and two indexes of paleoclimatic variability for the time at which each cranium was discovered. Results revealed independent contributions of population density, variation in paleoclimate, and temperature variation to the prediction of change in hominid cranial capacity (CC). **Although the effects of paleoclimatic variability and temperature variation provide support for climatic hypotheses, the proxy for population density predicted more unique variance in CC than all other variables. The pattern suggests multiple pressures drove hominid brain evolution and that the core selective force was social competition.** [....] The third panel shows a similar relationship between temperature variation and CC; as temperature variation increases to the mean of this variable, CC increases. However, at approximately 0.5 SD from the mean or higher, increases in temperature variation are associated with decreases in CC. The amplitude of this function is less than 200 cm3. # maps of temperature and snowfall northern winter temperatures map: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/600082162271911956/unknown.png southern winter temperatures map: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/600082220849430697/unknown.png snowfall map: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885251716784750702/MOD10C1_M_SNOW.mov #####c ##### # environmental influences on intelligence and racialism #####o # environment: religion iq by religion (of white adolescents) in the USA: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/500168763547844609/unknown.png # environment: abuse child abuse significantly increases PTSD, depression, suicide, risky sex, child abuse, and academic poor performance: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/570344151636508673/unknown.png Average unweighted and weighted ds for each of the respective outcome variables were .50 and .40 for PTSD, .63 and .44 for depression, .64 and .44 for suicide, .59 and .29 for sexual promiscuity, .41 and .16 for victim-perpetrator cycle, and .24 and .19 for academic performance. domestic violence between parents is strongly associated with IQ at age 5: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/570699168033669148/unknown.png # environment: segregation (response to "even high-income black people" have low scores) even affluent black people and Hispanic people still live in impoverished, low-resource neighborhoods: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643158761904799781/unknown.png [I]n the 50 metros with the largest black populations, there is none where average black exposure to neighborhood poverty is less than 20 percent higher than that of whites, and only two metros where affluent blacks live in neighborhoods that are less poor than those of the average white # environment: lead lead caused the rise in mental retardation (MR) of the 1960's-1990's (a new IQ test was implemented in 1992, causing the apparent flatline): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/501503097500336148/unknown.png even among populations with blood lead of <7 mg/dL, lead reduction significantly predicted increased reading scores: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639938078487871509/unknown.png #####c ##### # measures of racial achievement gap and racialism ##### # measure: education: naep current trends in NAEP scores predict that, by 2060, the white-black IQ gap would be 5 points: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470991282747998208/pone.png White-Black gaps from currently 11.1 IQ decrease to 6.5 IQ (optimistic model, Table 5) or 6.7 IQ (pessimistic model, Table 6), White-Hispanic gaps from 8.7 IQ to 3.5 IQ (op.) or 3.0 IQ (pe.)[.] the black-white performance gap hugely declined on the NAEP between 1940 and 1980; the major gaps are now those of income and wealth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471542461886365696/unknown.png since 1980, massive advancements have been made in reducing the black-white, Hispanic-white, and poor-rich gaps in reading, mathematics, and dropout rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/563595783702577153/unknown.png ^ critique of NAEP: """After conducting extensive analyses of a variety of national educational assessments, Hedges and Nowell concluded that the reduction in the gap was largely due to a reduction in the proportion of African American students in the lowest ranks of the test scores. They did not find an increase in the proportion of African Americans in the highest ranks.143 Consistent with this position, the achievement gap in the NAEP is mirrored by a similar gap in SAT scores, which indicates group differences in cognitive skill in the self-selected, but socially important, subset of students who intend to obtain education beyond high school (Figure 11.25).""" # measure: education: brasil Rocha and Nascimento 2018: ethnicity and family income predict performance among students in Sao Paulo and Amazonas, but income is more predictive; ethnic differences were insignificant at lower income but significant at higher income; authors suggest that historical barriers and current advantages predispose certain ethnicites to success: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954562817212686376/unknown.png # measure: education: dropout rates the highschool graduation rate has hugely increased for black and Hispanic youth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/617790581409841152/unknown.png although nonwhite people are underrepresented in STEM fields, they are not overwhelmingly so: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640930506627874826/FT_18.png # measure: twin studies: Minnesota Transracial Adoption Study (MTRAS) Thomas 2017: re-analysis of the MTRAS found that, after accounting for disproportionate attrition of low-IQ white respondents, there was no significant difference between white-white and black-white children: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636083165341024269/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954566610713210890/unknown.png """A total of 25 White adoptees were in the study when it began, nine of whom were lost at follow-up. The lost adoptees had relatively low IQs, so the remaining White adoptees were unrepresentatively high in IQ[.] [....] One can prove this by comparing the original IQs of the full sample and the subgroup who were measured at both ages 7 and 17; the latter subgroup had an initial mean IQ of 117.6 (with a minimum IQ of 92) but the full sample had an initial mean of 111.5 (minimum 62).""""""Meanwhile, the BW and Black–Black adoptees lost to follow-up hardly differed in IQ from the remaining adoptees, so attrition inflated those groups’ mean IQs by about only 0.2 and −0.7 points respectively.""""""Hence, allowing for attrition, the IQ differences between the White and the Black adoptees were no larger at age 17 than at age 7, a sign that the apparent enlarging was an artifact and not a genetic effect. """ Thomas 2017: re-analysis of the MTRAS found that black-black childrens' adoptive families were worse in every environmental variable measured: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954565603274932276/unknown.png """With the widening explained, the only racial IQ differences left to comment on are those present at initial testing. Only the IQ of the Black–Black adoptees, who scored 12.2 ± 2.8 points below the BW adoptees, calls for a specific explanation. Differences in home environment are one possibility. On every reported environmental variable, the Black–Black adoptees were worse off than both the BW and fully White adoptees, which I quantify by comparing the former against the BW adoptees, measuring the environmental differences in BW SDs. I use the BW adoptees as a comparison group here because Scarr and Weinberg [13] present more data for BW adoptees than White adoptees. The Black–Black adoptees were older when adopted (by 2.1 SDs, or two years); had spent less time in their adoptive home (by 1.1 SDs); had more (by 0.4 SDs) and lower-quality (by 0.8 SDs) adoptive placements; and had adoptive parents with less education and lower mean IQ (by 0.2–0.3 SDs). Additionally, 97% of the BW adoptees had White mothers while the Black–Black adoptees all had Black mothers, with whatever prenatal environmental differences that entailed.""" # measure: twin studies: general Thomas 2017: the results of the MTRAS were not replicated in other contemporary studies; in Tizard 1974 black-white children had (insignificantly) higher IQ means than white-white children; in Moore 1986 black-black children had (insignificantly) higher IQ means than black-white children: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954566067789918249/unknown.png # measure: adoptee studies: recent Kirkegaard 2019: paper by a racialist finds that there is an extremely small and insignificant IQ gap between White-Japanese and Black-Japanese children of American servicemen and Japanese women from a Japanese foster home: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/954560932665786408/unknown.png additional note todo: """Finally, we note that there are long-existing datasets which contain cognitive data from transracial adoptees which have thus far not been explored by researchers (e.g., the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009). We urge researchers to investigate these datasets with more advanced psychometric methods (e.g., Jensen’s method, multiple-group confirmatory factor analysis, local structural equation models, and item response theory analyses of various types).""" # measure: flynn effect national IQ is extremely highly associated with national development indicators (left), making causal inference very difficult; iq has little correlation with distance from African origins: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/576766234301956097/unknown.png flynn effect by continent: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/573038413347815443/Flynn-E28093-World-Regions.png scientific consensus among 75 experts supports the Flynn Effect: Experts expected 21st century IQ increases in currently on average low-ability regions (+ 6 to + 7 IQ points, in Latin America, Africa, India) and in East Asia (+ 7 IQ), but not in the West (a stagnation, below + 1 IQ), with a small decline in the US (− 0.45 IQ). Similar results were obtained for all experts and experts on the Flynn effect itself (mean r = 0.90 to 0.97; N = 17). The results correlated strongly with and confirmed a recent meta-analysis on the causes of the Flynn effect (r = 0.65 to 0.71; Pietschnig & Voracek, 2015). meta-study demonstrates that both fluid, crystalized, and spatial IQ have increased from 1909 to 2013: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636650784183943169/unknown.png # measure: sub-saharan africa Wicherts 2010: sub-saharan african IQ is estimated at 82.6; pre-2006 IQ at 78 (table 2 has sample populations); Lynn and Jensen systematically excluded higher-IQ estimate studies without any valid methodological reason: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/570828145733795850/unknown.png Rindermann 2013: sub-saharan African IQ is estimated at 75: The described IQ means vary between IQ 68 and 78. Averaging the given means for 2010 results in an estimated IQ of around 75 for African majority countries. abut 260 million children are not and will not be in school (and it would cost just ~10 billion per year to fix that): # measure: black scientists wikipedia category: b. 1904, Charles Drew modernized and scaled-up blood plasma transfusions: """Out of Drew's work, he was appointed director of the first American Red Cross Blood Bank in February 1941. The blood bank being in charge of blood for use by the U.S. Army and Navy, he disagreed with the exclusion of the blood of African-Americans from plasma-supply networks. In 1942, Drew resigned from his posts after the armed forces ruled that the blood of African-Americans would be accepted but would have to be stored separately from that of whites.[13]""" b. 1942, Patricia Bath invented laser cataract surgery: """Bath coined the term "Laser phaco" for the process, short for laser PHotoAblative Cataract surgery,[32] and developed the laserphaco probe, a medical device that improves on the use of lasers to remove cataracts, and "for ablating and removing cataract lenses". The device was completed in 1986 after Bath conducted research on lasers in Berlin and patented in 1988,[33] making her the first African-American woman to receive a patent for a medical purpose.[7] The device — which quickly and nearly painlessly dissolves the cataract with a laser, irrigates and cleans the eye and permits the easy insertion of a new lens — is used internationally to treat the disease.[3][2][4] Bath has continued to improve the device and has successfully restored vision to people who have been unable to see for decades.[15][34]""" b. 1950, Sylvester Gates is extensively recognized for his work on quantum physics, string theory, and supersymmetry: b. 1957, Mark Dean was cocreator of the IBM personal computer, holding 3 of its 9 original patents: #####c ##### # dysgenics: claimed decline in intelligence due to genetics #####o # summary Racialists claim that societies are getting dumber due to dysgenics: Dumb kids have more kids. # metastudies Pietschnig and Voracek 2014: metastudy: the Flynn effect has declined but not reversed (slower growth but still growth): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1064367169321828432/10.png """The decreasing strength of the IQ gains over time was reflected by meaningful negative effects of time span for full-scale, fluid, and crystallized IQ (all ηP 2 > .18), as well as year of onset for fluid and spatial IQ (all ηP 2 > .04). Supported by the observed IQ change trajectories, evidence for decreasing gains in recent decades can be considered to be robust. Regression slopes of joinpoint regressions significantly decreased in the last segment of all IQ domains (Table S4 in the Supplemental Material; decreases of strength of gains were also obvious when data from different continents were inspected separately; Fig. S1 in the Supplemental Material). This may conceivably indicate a development toward an end and perhaps an ultimate reversal of the IQ gains, as has been recently reported for Scandinavian countries (Dutton & Lynn, 2013; Flynn, 1987, 2009b; Teasdale & Owen, 2005).""" Trahan et al 2014: metastudy: multiple countries: the Flynn effect has not declined; the effect remains constant or larger in modern tests: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1064365475359899648/image.png """Environmental factors. Our finding that the Flynn effect has not diminished over time and may be larger for modern than older tests is not consistent with Sundet et al.’s (2008) hypothesis relating increasing IQ scores and decreasing family size, although we do not have data for a direct evaluation. The larger effect for modem than older tests could be regarded as consistent with Lynn’s (2009) hypothesis pertaining to pre- and early postnatal nutrition. However, although we cannot directly address cohort effects in this meta-analysis, we note that the magnitude of increases in Wechsler and SB scores has remained close to the nominal value of 3 IQ points per decade since 1984 (Flynn, 2009a). Deviations from this constant value—such as the difference we found between modem and old tests—might indicate an IQ difference between older and younger cohorts, but they also might reflect other differences that have occurred over time, such as scaling changes, ceiling effects, or differences in the sampling of study participants (e.g., Hiscock, 2007; Kaufman, 2010). Our study did not find evidence for the plateauing or decline of the Flynn effect in the United States, as has been documented in Norway (Sundet et al., 2004) and Denmark (Teasdale & Owen, 2005, 2008), respectively.""" # genetic data and partner selection ("idiocracy") Conley et al 2016: among 4686 white adults in the US Health and Retirement Survey, genetic data gives no reason to believe that dysgenic intelligence effects are accelerating; if there is a dysgenic effect, it's small: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1064368899556122765/image.png """One disconcerting possibility is that recent trends in health and illness may be partially driven by negative selection on the genotypic level. This “dysgenic” theory has been framed primarily with respect to cognitive ability (32).""""""For example, although the less educated respondents in the population have a fairly stable number of offspring over the birth cohorts, those with greater observed (i.e., phenotypic) education levels have fewer children over time. A similar pattern can be observed for height where only in more recent birth cohorts do we see those with higher stature having fewer children. Both of these phenotypic trends would seem to imply dynamics of emergent or strengthening dysgenic reproductive patterns. However, when we look at the relevant genetic scores in Fig. 2C, we find that the dysgenic trends inferred from phenotypic associations between education and height on the one hand, and fertility on the other, are not present with respect to the genotypic data. [....] Although we may recall from Fig. 2A that the PGSs for height and education predict number of children ever born in the overall sample, these associations are consistent across all birth cohorts in this study. Thus, although there may be positive selection on height and slight negative selection on additive measures of the genetic architecture of education, these are not accelerating.""" Conley and Domingue 2016: among 8851 adults in the US Health and Retirement Survey, genetic data gives no reason to believe that dysgenic intelligence effects are accelerating; if there is a dysgenic effect, it's small: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1064380300974620742/image.png """When we turn to genotype, we again find that the genetic trend is contrary to the trend observed working with realized educational attainment. There does appear to be a modest negative effect of educational PGS on number of children ever born (model 3 of panel A; b = –0.067, p < 0.001), such that an additional standard deviation in educational PGS results in 1/15th fewer children on average. More importantly, however, model 4 of panel A shows that the interaction between birth year and PGS—the direct test of whether such dynamics are shifting over time as H&M suggest—is insignificant. Therefore, as a society, we do not seem to be experiencing increasing dysgenic dynamics, despite the fears of H&M, among others (Lynn 2011). When we break out this analysis by sex in panels B and C of Table 5, we find that dynamics are also insignificant for each group.""" # norway Flynn claims that very high IQ scores in Norway have declined using Piagetian Volume and Heaviness tests: Flynn notes that the reverse Flynn effect occurs *within* families as well, suggesting genetics (eg, dysgenic effects, immigration) cannot be the primary cause: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/588298431785730068/F2.png """The results show that large positive and negative trends in cohort IQ operate within as well as across families. This implies that the trends are not due to a changing composition of families, and that there is at most a minor role for explanations involving genes (e.g., immigration and dysgenic fertility) and environmental factors largely fixed within families (e.g., parental education, socialization effects of low-ability parents, and family size). While such factors may be present, their influence is negligible compared with other environmental factors. Notably, this goes counter to the conclusion of a recent review on retrograde Flynn effects (6) and the expert opinions reported in a recent survey of intelligence researchers, which found “the anti-Flynn effect being attributed mainly to genetics and immigration” (7). As noted by two of the reviewers, the magnitude of the negative Flynn trend in our data itself speaks against the dysgenic hypothesis for retrograde Flynn effects, as changes in IQ over time are too large to plausibly reflect selection-driven genetic change in the population.""""""Polygenic scores that predict education are correlated with IQ and have been shown to correlate negatively with fertility in Icelandic and US data (16, 17). The authors of the Icelandic study extrapolate that their results imply a decline of 0.30 IQ point per decade, an effect sufficiently small to fall within the uncertainty bounds of the difference between across- and within-family trend estimates in the present study.""" # measure: long term iq decline original study: Woodley, Nijenhuis, Murphy 2013: reaction times have slowed since 1880, suggesting a decline in intelligence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/760184994172764242/unknown.png this appears to be mainly an effect of lags from computerized testing and from increased average age: """For example, in studies performed from 1884 to 1893, Francis Galton recorded visual SRT latencies that ranged from 181 to 189 ms in subjects ranging in age from 18 to 60 years (Johnson et al., 1985). These latencies are considerably shorter than those reported in recent SRT studies (Lowe and Rabbitt, 1998; Deary et al., 2001; Deary and Der, 2005; Der and Deary, 2006). Given the correlation between SRTs and fluid intelligence (Deary et al., 2001; Bugg et al., 2006), Woodley et al. (2013) concluded that the slowed SRTs in recent studies reflected a systematic reduction in processing speed, and hence fluid intelligence, in contemporary populations. However, an alternative explanation of the apparent SRT slowing is that the SRT latencies reported in recent studies have been inflated by hardware and software delays in computerbased paradigms (Dordonova and Dordonov, 2013). In support of this argument, contemporary studies using mechanical SRT measurements (Montare, 2010; Eckner et al., 2011), including SRT testing procedures similar to those used by Galton (Dordonova and Dordonov, 2013), report SRT latencies similar to those observed in the Victorian era.""" #####c #####c ##### # # crime, violence, and racialism # #####o see also the sections on racial bias against black people in the criminal justice system ##### # background and theory of crime #####o # theory of crime: left realism: victims of crime Laitman 2017: the direct cost of crime is estimated at 3.5% of GDP among Latin American countries; about 1.5% from public spending (ex: prisons), 1.4% from private spending (ex: security guards), 0.6% from social costs of victimization (ex: lost income and quality of life): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/873397870684950568/unknown.png """This volume also points out the steep costs of Latin America’s high incarceration rates. For the 2010-2014 period, the region spent $6.5 billion per year to maintain and build prisons. On top of this, imprisoned individuals forgo an additional $7.3 billion annually in income. The two numbers together amount to 0.39 percent of GDP, more than the conditional cash transfers for the region’s poor.""" ^ Laitman 2017: estimates by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/873398163178930236/unknown.png Sternheimer 2009: NCVS data shows that poor people are much more likely to be victims of violent crime: """Poor people are not just more likely to be robbed. Those at the lowest income level are victims of aggravated assault at the rate of 13 per 1,000, compared with 3 per 1,000 in the $75,000 and over category.""" # most violent crime is concentrated among few individuals in Sweden from 1973 to 2004, most violent crime was committed by a very small portion of the population (1% does 63%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/599639915365662742/127_2013_783_Fig2_HTML.png in Sweden, the key predictors of violent crime are poor school attendance, prior violent conviction, theft/drug/traffic conviction, mental disorders, and drug use: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/599656210819579916/unknown.png # intelligence impact on crime: high high nonverbal iq *is* protective against crime: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/501501113200017408/unknown.png [xxx reread] # age impact on crime: high Ulmer 2014: in the United States, age has a very strong effect on homicide: in 2010, ~50% of murderers were 15-25 years old and ~70% were 15-30: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/856259002882326528/unknown.png ^ Brame 2003: xxx #####c ##### # socioeconomic vs subcultural theory: todo #####o Muhammad 2020: todo: Sampson Wilson Katz 2018: Reassessing “Toward A Theory Of Race, Crime, and Urban Inequality” """In “Toward a Theory of Race, Crime, and Urban Inequality,” Sampson and Wilson (1995) argued that racial disparities in violent crime are attributable in large part to the persistent structural disadvantages that are disproportionately concentrated in African American communities. They also argued that the ultimate causes of crime were similar for both Whites and Blacks, leading to what has been labeled the thesis of “racial invariance.” In light of the large scale social changes of the past two decades and the renewed political salience of race and crime in the United States, this paper reassesses and updates evidence evaluating the theory. In so doing, we clarify key concepts from the original thesis, delineate the proper context of validation, and address new challenges. Overall, we find that the accumulated empirical evidence provides broad but qualified support for the theoretical claims. We conclude by charting a dual path forward: an agenda for future research on the linkages between race and crime, and policy recommendations that align with the theory’s emphasis on neighborhood level structural forces but with causal space for cultural factors.""" Krivo Peterson Kuhl 2009: todo: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1144565507467526204/image.png Segregation, Racial Structure, and Neighborhood Violent Crime """Figure 3 shows, first, the way in which racial segregation heightens crime in all three types of neighborhood. No matter what the level of disadvantage or the racial/ethnic composition, neighborhoods are worse off in terms of violent crime when they are located in more segregated cities. But this influence of segregation is not as dramatic as that resulting from differential placement of racial and ethnic groups in the social structure. Clearly, white urban neighborhoods that are actually found in U.S. cities provide distinctly different contexts of local disadvantage and city segregation than is the case for either black or Latino communities. Virtually all black and Latino neighborhoods have higher levels of disadvantage than those found in most white areas. This is seen in the striking pattern whereby predicted violence rates for observed white neighborhoods are almost exclusively in the left half of the disadvantage scale, whereas predicted rates for observed black and Latino neighborhoods are mainly in the right half of the graph.""" Shihadeh Shrum 2002: todo: Serious Crime in Urban Neighborhoods: Is There a Race Effect? #####c ##### # culture as cause of crime: strong evidence: example: southern culture of honor #####o # todo Hayes Lee 2006: todo: The Southern Culture Of Honor and Violent Attitudes # summary: honor permits male lethal aggression to defend one's social status Nisbett Cohen 2018: White Southern culture has a "culture of honor" where violence is used to protect against insults and other threats to one's status; this is reflected in higher historical and current White homicide rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/968626413999652924/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/968626249486462976/unknown.png # materialist explanation for cultural differences: pastoral animal agriculture Nisbett Cohen 2018: White Southern culture honor culture may result from the greater use of pastoral agriculture in hills and dry plains, which are not suitable for the settled subsistence farming or cotton plantations; these regions have 2.6x the homicide rate of moist plains: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/968768640373641237/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/972323273419395082/unknown.png # specific evidence: argument-related murders higher, felony-related murders similar Nisbett Cohen 2018: White Southern culture honor culture encourages people to settle disputes violently; this results in similar homicide rates to commit a felony but higher homicide rates in response to arguments: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/968764960748490763/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/968768744648220723/unknown.png # specific evidence: opinion polls Nisbett Cohen 2018: as predicted by CoH, White Southern culture is uniquely more likely to endorse violence to settle interpersonal disputes, but not more or less likely to endorse violence for other purposes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/968767847243321374/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/968767907410636811/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/968767935701213254/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/968768283996221470/unknown.png # specific evidence: experimental evidence Nisbett Cohen 2018: as predicted by CoH, after getting bumped by someone in a testing session, white Southerners were much more likely to report anger than white Northerners, who were more likely to respond with amusement: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/980187818330566666/unknown.png Nisbett Cohen 2018: as predicted by CoH, after getting insulted by someone in a testing session, white Southerners were much more likely to experience increased cortisol and testosterone than white Northerners, who showed no change: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/980189759056007308/unknown.png Nisbett Cohen 2018: as predicted by CoH, after getting insulted by someone in a testing session, white Southerners were much more likely to give a firm handshake and act domineering: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/980190985118187600/unknown.png #####c ##### # culture as cause of crime: Black subculture of violence? #####o # conservative view Latzer 2017: argues for a Black subculture of violence inherited from White Southerners, and argues that this most effectively explains elevated Black crime rates: """Fourth, the historical conditions supporting the development and maintenance of a group's culture of violence often can be identified. For example, in the case of African Americans the violence norms and values grew out of the post-slavery experience of blacks in the South and were perpetuated by the denial of opportunities for social advancement. Fifth, and last, cultural values supporting violence can change when the subcultural group moves into a position in society (such as the middle class in the United States) in which violence is eschewed because it is detrimental to the improved social status of group members. We have seen this development repeatedly in the United States with immigrant groups, such as the Irish of the mid-19th century and the Italians of the early 20th century. Both groups had subcultures of violence which ultimately were abandoned as they advanced to middle class status (Latzer, 2016, pp. 101–02).""" ^ note: author is a conservative hack, but does make token acknowledgements of "racist marches": #####c ##### # crime caused by testosterone and racialism #####o # subculture theory may CAUSE testosterone differences Mazur 2023: preprint: TODO reread when complete Testosterone and the “Honor Culture” of Young Black Men """Participants in the “honor cultures” of poor black inner cities are hypersensitive to perceived insults to their personal reputations. In theory, this vigilance raises their testosterone (T), which in turn facilitates dominance contests that usually do not but may end violently. Two prior reports, using large datasets, show inordinately high T in young black men with low education, a cohort in which honor culture participants are presumed to be concentrated. However, a third study did not find this effect. Here, using a newer and very large dataset, the combined NHANES surveys from 2013-14 and 2015-16, mean T of young black men with low education is shown to be higher than that of comparable white or Hispanic men. Higher T appears among black males by late teenage. Females do not show the same pattern.""" # evidence for higher or lower testosterone between racial groups is very variable in a sample of 1881 bostonians, there were no racial differences in testosterone among black, white, and Hispanic people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542051741018095636/zeg0110646170001.png With or without adjustment for covariates, there were no significant differences in testosterone, bioavailable testosterone, or SHBG levels by race/ethnicity. DHEAS levels differed by race/ethnicity before covariate adjustment; after adjustment this difference was attenuated. Before adjustment, DHT and DHT to testosterone ratios did not significantly differ by racial/ethnic group. After adjustment, there was evidence of racial/ethnic differences in DHT (P = 0.047) and DHT to testosterone (P = 0.038) levels. Black men had higher DHT levels and DHT to testosterone ratios than white and Hispanic men. in a sample of 280, race did not affect testosterone or risk-taking: Because of our predominantly Caucasian samples, any effects of racial differences in testosterone would have to be extremely large to systematically influence our results. Nevertheless, we did examine if differences between Caucasians and non-Caucasians existed for cortisol, testosterone, and our risk-taking measures in each study, but none were found (ps ≥ .380). Furthermore, controlling for whether participants were Caucasian did not alter the significance of our reported Testosterone × Cortisol interactions (ps ≤ .040), and moderated regression analysis testing 3-way Race × Testosterone × Cortisol interactions revealed that Caucasian status did not moderate our reported dual-hormone interactions (ps ≥ .307). compared to white people, Hispanic people have higher testosterone, black people have higher estradiol (an estrogen): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542035221965438976/unknown.png In conclusion, in this large, nationally representative sample, there was no difference in circulating testosterone concentrations between non-Hispanic black and white men overall. However, black men had the highest estradiol level overall across all ages, which was not explained by racial differences in the prevalence of factors that influence hormone levels. Mexican-American men had hormonal profiles similar to non-Hispanic white men, with the exception of higher testosterone. Ellis 1992: testosterone differed significantly black and white people but insignificantly between {white, Hispanic, Asian, and Native American} people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/541309435235270696/unknown.png #####c ##### # crime caused by genetics and racialism #####o # genetics impact on crime: high in sweden, variance in violent crime between twin/sibling pairs is explained 55% by genetics explains (A), 20% by shared environment (C), and 25% by unique environment (E): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641982719089311754/mp2015184f1.png # MAOA-uVNTR warrior gene: terminology and overview MAOA or MAO-A: Monoamine oxidase A helps deaminate ("deactivate") neurologically important amine neurotransmitters including dopamine, norepinephrine, and serotonin: MAOA-uVNTR: the region that regulates MAOA production; has multiple polymorphisms (types); can be shorter (lower-activity) or longer (higher-activity) rs1465108: Variant 1 of uVNTR rs909525: Variant 2 of uVNTR rs2235186: Variant 3 of uVNTR rs2072743: Variant 4 of uVNTR rs1137070: Variant 5 of uVNTR rs3027409: Variant 6 of uVNTR rs6323: another MAOA polymorphism unrelated to uVNTR Ficks 2014: summary of how MAOA works and the types of MAOA: TLDR is that 2R, 3R might cause violence, 3.5R and 4R might reduce violence, and 5R is unclear: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/940013521943531580/7c3bfe6a-8322-4c00-bc7a-1c585a25ac55.png """The MAOA enzyme metabolizes monoamine neurotransmitters, including serotonin (Sabol et al. 1998). The promoter region of MAOA located on the short arm of the X chromosome contains a 30 base pair variable number of tandem repeats sequence (VNTR) consisting of 2, 3, 3.5, 4, or 5 repeated copies (Kim-Cohen et al. 2006; Sabol et al. 1998). Transcription of the 3-repeat (short) allele results in reduced MAOA activity and thus increased serotonin in the synapse, putatively increasing risk for aggression and ASB. The frequency of the ‘‘risk" allele in nonclinical samples of European ancestry ranges from 0.3 to 0.4, although the frequency of this allele in individuals of Asian and African ancestry appears to be substantially higher (*0.6 in both groups; Sabol et al. 1998). In contrast, the 4-repeat (long) allele results in increased MAOA activity and is considered the low-risk allele (Kim-Cohen et al. 2006). Of the less common alleles, the 3.5- repeat has shown evidence of activity similar to that of the 4-repeat and is thus considered high activity, whereas the 2-repeat is usually grouped with the 3-repeat allele and considered low activity (Kim-Cohen et al. 2006). Classification of the 5-repeat allele has been inconsistent across studies.""" # MAOA-uVNTR warrior gene: variation by race racialist blog claiming to show variations in repeats by race: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729129559341138001/unknown.png graphs from above table: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729174655050711080/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729353401959186563/unknown.png # MAOA-uVNTR warrior gene: small impact on violence: odds ratio about 1.1 (10% more) Vassos et al. 2014: meta-study: a metastudy of 31 genes across 185 studies covering >60,000 people found no evidence that any are significantly & consistently associated with aggression; MAOA OR of 1.08: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729125034060152842/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/940020914731515914/unknown.png to convert ES to odds ratios, add 1 """The upper row (A1, B1 and C1) presents allelic associations of 5HTTLPR, COMT and MAOA in males (MAOA-M) with aggression as a categorical outcome. The lower row (A2, B2 and C2) presents associations of the same polymorphisms with continuous outcomes under the additive model for 5HTTLPR and COMT and with the hemizygous genotype for MAOA in males.""" gene list: """HTR1B-G861C, 5HTTLPR, 5HTT-VNTR, BDNF-Val66Met, COMT-Val158Met, SLC6A3 40bpVNTR, DRD2-Taq1A, AR_(CAG)n, DRD4-ex3 48bpVNTR, MAOA promoter 30bpVNTR, TPH1-A779C/A218C, HTR2A-1438A/G""" (note: MAOA studies only discussed 3R and 3.5R, not 2R) Ficks and Waldman 2014: meta-study: MAOA-uVNTR had an OR of 1.08x higher aggression with p=.035; 5HTTLPR had an OR of 1.41x higher aggression with p=4.25e-9): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729166797462437938/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/940012616200364062/unknown.png # MAOA-uVNTR warrior gene: non-metastudies Rautiainen et al. 2016: Only rs4714329 and rs9471290 were significantly correlated with anti-social personality disorder (ASPD, n=173) compared to controls (n=3766); neither is a MAOA variant: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/940033282714779658/unknown.png Tiihonen et al. 2014: MAOA was significantly associated with repeated violent offense in a candidate gene study (pic 1) but no MAOA variant was signifciantly associated in GWAS (pic 2): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/940034890412490833/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/940034963506610226/unknown.png Concerning statistical significance, the P-value of 2.9 × 10 − 5 for the low-activity MAOA variant can be considered as extremely significant, as the Bonferroni-corrected level of significance in the candidate gene study was 0.025. # MAOA-uVNTR warrior gene: greater sensitivity to childhood maltreatment for male subjects Caspi 2002: first study to find gene-environment interaction (G x E) effect of childhood abuse, adult violence, and MAOA: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/940035473424932974/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/940036010077724693/unknown.png """Maltreated children with a genotype conferring high levels of MAOA expression were less likely to develop antisocial problems. These findings may partly explain why not all victims of maltreatment grow up to victimize others, and they provide epidemiological evidence that genotypes can moderate children’s sensitivity to environmental insults.""" Fergusson 2018: strong gene-environment (G x E) correlation between self-reported and police-reported antisocial behavior and self-repored abuse as a child (asked at 18 and 21, covers 15 behaviors): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/939935142795939860/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/939935668166086706/unknown.png Byrd and Manuck 2014: meta-analysis: strong gene-environment (G x E) correlation between antisocial behavior and abuse as a child; males with the low-activity MAOA allele (3R) had significantly greater effects from childhood maltreatment than males with high-activity MAOA alleles (4R); n>18400: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/939971396883337266/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/939971617671479376/unknown.png """It is noteworthy, too, that MAOA variation interacted with childhood maltreatment to predict outcomes referenced to both childhood/adolescence and adulthood; dependent measures of both continuous and categorical distribution; and both violent and non-violent antisocial behaviors. The latter finding suggests that the low activity MAOA genotype heightens maltreatment-dependent risk for a range of conduct problems, and not aggression or criminal violence specifically.""" # MAOA-uVNTR warrior gene: greater sensitivity to childhood maltreatment for male subjects Ferraro 2020: no gene-environment (G x E) correlation between adult self-reported aggression and self-reported child exposure to abuse (just one binary question); controls for socioeconomic background; n=2506 from Add Health; study also found no significant correlation between MAOA ("polymorphism") and aggression when controlling for gender, abuse: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/939931076414013500/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/939933197196754974/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/939933709006692432/unknown.png # MAOA-uVNTR warrior gene: the famous typo it's 55%, not 77%: """[T]he low-activity version of the gene is even more common in Chinese men (77 percent of whom carry it), and the Chinese are neither descended from warriors in their recent history nor particularly prone to social pathology in modern societies. I previously debunked this, but I guess I must do so, again. A study by Lu et al found that 42 Taiwanese men, or 55% of their 77-subject control sample, had the 3-repeat allele of MAOA. Lea and Chambers copied the information incorrectly. Then, an editorial against MAOA research by a doctoral student repeated the falsehood.""" #####c ##### # crime caused by lead environmental pollution and racialism #####o # lead impact on crime: high the difference between atmospheric lead between the least-enleadened and most-enleadened US county predicted 4x higher homicide rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640930782440849430/unknown.png Negative binomial regression was used to examine the relationship between air lead concentrations and the incidence of homicide across counties in the United States (N = 3111). After adjusting for sociologic confounding factors and 9 measures of air pollution, the only indictor of air pollution found to be associated with homicide rates was air lead concentration. Across all counties, estimated air lead concentrations ranged from 0 to 0.17 µg/m3. The adjusted results suggest that the difference between the highest and lowest level of estimated air lead is associated with a homicide incidence rate ratio of 4.12 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-16.61). suburban air lead strongly predicted assault rates in Australia: Accounting for socio-demographic covariates, lead in air remained a strong predictor of assault rates. For every additional μg/m3 of lead in air, assault rates 21 years later increased by 163 per 100,000 population (see Table 3). Lead in air was the strongest predictor in the model, accounting for 29.8 % of the variance in assault rates 21 years later. By comparison, the proportion of the population aged 15–24 accounted for 5.4 % of the variance, and the proportion of the population who completed secondary school accounted for 5.0 %. across the US, blood and gas lead both correlate strongly with teen pregnancy and violent crime rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568544666702577677/unknown.png index crime rates line up reasonably well with lead over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/501509134789902336/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/501509197364461597/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/501509413027315712/unknown.png # differences in lead and incarceration and race young black male incarceration rates have declined faster than young white males, in accords with declining blood lead levels after slum clearance and lead removal efforts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/501505136800038943/unknown.png young black male incarceration rates have declined faster than young white males, in accords with declining blood lead levels after slum clearance and lead removal efforts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/501505746761154560/unknown.png # differences in lead exposure CDC 2009: from 1999-2004, 1.4% of children aged 1-5 had elevated blood lead levels, including 3.4% of black children and 1.2% of white children: #####c ##### # other environmental causes of crime and racialism #####o # environment: violence and parenting exposure to violence (eg, observing/participating in fights) and parental monitoring accounts for 50% of the correlation between race and violent behavior: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568524311090954251/unknown.png sexual abuse, physical abuse, and neglect (as determined by court records) all predict future violent crime: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568542860488474634/unknown.png domestic violence in one's home and having peers with domestic violence in their homes (as determined by court records) both significantly decreased reading & math scores and increased the number of disciplinary incidents for elementary school students: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568528597967437825/unknown.png self-reported exposure to violence is significantly related to hostility towards others: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568532271418834945/unknown.png age, exposure to violence, corporal punishment, family conflict, lack of feeling of purpose in life, depression, and hopelessness are all significantly correlated with the use of violence in black adolescents: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568545659880341522/unknown.png unsupportive environments, witnessing violence, psychological distress, and drug use all correlate with increased violent behavior: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568600474501120000/unknown.png # environment: poverty & segregation in Los Angeles, aggravated assault rate was positively correlated with neighborhood poverty, single motherhood, ethnic homogeneity, surrounding neighborhood poverty, and surrounding neighborhood crime rate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568548099992190976/unknown.png black homicide is significantly positively correlated with black-white isolation (non-interaction), population size, unemployment, youth unattachment, and single mother households: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568549472821313536/unknown.png # environment: inequality inequality has a strong effect on crime: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/506002809418809350/unknown.png # environment: city structure green space is generally associated with decreased crime: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/501506278774931466/unknown.png Nevertheless, preliminary research examined in this systematic literature review demonstrated overwhelmingly positive associations between urban green space and decreased violence and crime. In addition, the findings presented offer important insight into current strengths and challenges of existing studies and highlight remaining research gaps. # environment: sports [todo xxx reread] McNichols Sabia Kumpas 2017: more sports less crime: # environment: many environmental causes poverty, uneducation, poor social networks, and high toxicity factors (eg, lead exposure) explain 60% of the black-white gap in teen crime rates and about 1/6th of the variation of black teen crime rates in Chicago: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568911929318440987/unknown.png This difference in exposure is large enough to plausibly account for a substantial portion of racial disparities in intergenerational inequality. According to our model, for example, if the poor black boys in our sample had been exposed to the toxicity levels experienced by their white peers, their predicted likelihood of incarceration after controlling for parent income would have been 5.8 percentage points lower, or almost 60% of the gap between blacks and whites in our sample. # environment: wages Hansen 2003: a higher proportion of workers in a given area with wages raised by the British April 1999 minimum wage law correlates with a larger reduction in crime: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862848410432569344/unknown.png controls: demography [average age, proportion female, proportion young men, education, public sector job share], unemployment rate, clearance rates ["clear-up rate"] # environment: employment [todo xxx reread] McNichols 2017: a 1 percent increase in labor market opportunities leads to a 1.08 percent decrease in arrests for 14-18-year-olds: # environment: welfare Lenhard 2021: states that implemented EITC benefits higher than >10% of federal EITC benefits saw a 10% reduction in violent crime, equal to about 40 per 100k: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862879340404670464/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862879205107564574/unknown.png controls: unemployment rate, GDP/capita, EITC take-up rates, insurance coverage, median income, mental health treatment parity laws, Medicaid and TANF laws, real minimum wage, housing prices, and state welfare waivers; categories: no EITC = no state EITC laws, low EITC = <10% of federal EITC, high EITC = >10% of federal EITC """[Delaware and Virginia] states introduced a state-level EITC of 20% of the federal credit and did not change their rates in any other years besides 2006. All states with no state EITC laws throughout the study period serve as the control group in the event study analysis. [....] In the DD analysis, I find that the 2006 policy implementation reduced violent crime by 13.3% (p < .01) in the two states, while leading to a small and imprecisely estimated increase in property crimes. These results further support the main findings of the study by indicating that EITC laws reduce the prevalence of violent crime.""""""Compared to states with no EITC in place, implementing a credit of at least 10% of the federal level is associated with 40 fewer violent g per 100,000 individuals, which corresponds to a 10.0% decline""" Rudolph 2020: across OECD countries, higher social expenditure (specifically higher unemployment benefit replacement rates) correlated with lower homicide rates; a measure of decommodification did not correlate with homicide rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862873093353242624/unknown.png # environment: "rap music": bullshit among 3393 Toronto high schoolers, "Urban Music Enthusiast" (like rap and hip hop, dislike other music) status was not associated with property or violent crime for black people but was associated with property and violent crime for white and Asian people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566966037405368351/unknown.png different music genres are associated with different reported criminality rates (but causality cannot be derived from this data): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566813417046802442/unknown.png n=2532 #####c ##### # crime and immigration in the historic usa #####o # the dastardly irish the Irish are BORN CRIMINALS: in 1850, the Irish were 220% overrepresented in arrests and 550% overrepresented in convictions in New York City: By 1850, the Irish made up a quarter of the population in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Baltimore. During 1859, 23 per cent of the persons arrested in New York City were native Americans, **55 per cent were born in Ireland, 10 per cent in Germany, 7 per cent in England and Scotland, and 5 per cent in other countries.76** [....] In the courts of special sessions, **slightly less than one per cent of the native American population were convicted in 1859, while 5.5 per cent of the Irish, 3 per cent of the Scotch, 2.5 per cent of the English, 2 per cent of the Canadians, 1.5 per cent of the French, and 1.2 per cent of the Germans were convicted.77** [....] Of 2000 prostitutes examined in 1858 at the Penitentiary Hospital on Blackwell's Island -- in effect, the city's venereal hospital -- 762 were natives of the United States and 1,238, or five eights of the total, were immigrants. [...] 706 in Ireland, 104 in England, 63 in Brisih north America, 52 in Scotland, and one in Wales, while 257 were natives of the German states, 17 of Switzerland, and 13 of France. # the murderous italians the Italians are BORN CRIMINALS: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/567104495952199682/unknown.png # immigration restriction period in 1910's: age immigration restrictions in the 1910's and 20's caused the immigrant population to age relative to the native one -- and thus saw a corresponding decline in relative crime: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542377842701369374/unknown.png By 1930, as shown in the top panel, more than half of the foreign-born population was over the age of 30, and more than 10% were 65 or older. These differences in age distributions can have a profound effect on perceptions of relative criminality because age is so strongly correlated with criminal behavior. Crime rates peak for males in late adolescence and decline rather precipitously thereafter. **Comparisons of native and immigrant criminality in 1930 that do not control for these differences in age distributions will necessarily bias the results in favor of immigrants.** #####c #####c ##### # # other major claims by racialists # #####o ##### # sports and racialism #####o # athleticism and media bias: relevant meme Key & Peele's Super Bowl Special in 2015: # basketball: early domination of the sport by jewish people caused commentators to racializing jewish people Demby 2014: the history of basketball is intimately intertwined with the upward movement of Jewish people into "white" spaces: Canter 2010: Jewish people invented modern basketball: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/966401107683311616/unknown.png """The game of basketball was invented in 1891 by a minister, James Naismith, who believed that it would promote “muscular Christianity.” That game would be unrecognizable today with its peach baskets, players passing the ball but never dribbling (a minor adjustment never envisioned by Naismith) and final scores like 5-4. It wasn’t until Jewish immigrants at the turn of the 20th century adopted the “ultimate city game”—and over the course of a few decades, from the ’20s to the ’50s, added innovations in play and strategy—that it went from one requiring brute strength to one that stressed skill and strategy. In their hands, basketball, first conceived as a simple, easy to play (but hard to master) game, became the crossover dribbling, three-point bombing sport that it is today. Contrary to cultural stereotypes, early in the 20th century, most Jewish kids played basketball and played it well.""" Canter 2010: Jewish people dominated early basketball: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/966400253962108938/unknown.png """Just as stereotypes unfairly label today’s black players, many were foisted on the Jewish players in the ’20s and ’30s. Jew Ball provided an easy mark for journalists like Paul Gallico, the eminent sports editor of the NY Daily News who expressed the goy “excuse” in a 1930s column, stating that “the reason that basketball appeals to Hebrews is that the game places a premium on an alert scheming mind, flashy trickiness, artful dodging and general smart-aleckness.” Players who lost to all-Jewish teams whined that the shorter Jews had “God-given better balance and speed.” Genetic advantage or not, the fact is that in 1930, in the biggest college game of the year, with NYU facing CCNY (both teams were undefeated), 9 of the 10 starters were Jewish. How cool is that?""" Entine 2001: top team names: Philly Hebreys, New York Whirlwinds, Cleveland Rosenblums: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/966401883650523246/unknown.png """There are plenty of parallels between the Jewish stars of years past and today's "flashy" black players. The players then and now were subject to sometimes egregious racial stereotyping. The newest showmen of modern basketball, such as Allen Iverson and Kobe Bryant are singled out for their "athleticism" and "natural talents", rather than their well-rounded play. Such stereotypes reflect a long tradition that goes back more than seven decades, when the game emerged from the ghettos of Philadelphia, New York and Baltimore. Sportswriters then used to wax about the gaudy skills of "natural athletes." Sounds familiar, except the stars had names like Dutch Garfinkel and Doc Lou Sugerman, and the top teams were the Philadelphia "Hebrews", the New York Whirlwinds and the Cleveland Rosenblums.""" ^ note that Entine embraces racialist views on sports: """So why do we readily accept that evolution has turned out Jews with a genetic predisposition to Tay-Sachs or that colorectal cancer is far more common among those of West African descent, yet find it racist to suggest that West Africans have evolved into the world's best sprinters? Muscle fiber types, reflex capabilities, metabolic efficiency, lung capacity and a host of other variables that determine success in the world of sports are clearly not distributed evenly between populations. Biology circumscribes possibility. "Differences among athletes of elite caliber are so small that if you have an advantage that might be genetically based...it might be very, very significant," notes Michigan State University anthropologist Robert Malina, who studied black/white differences in earning his doctorate in anthropology at Penn. "The fraction of a second is the difference between the gold medal and fourth place."""" comment by Ta-Nehisi Coates on the topic: thesis on the topic: Sclar 2008, *A sport at which Jews excel*: Gallico 1938: # body morphology and athleticism in america, black people are slightly shorter and fatter than white people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/574282592887767040/unknown.png # athleticism and background Scott et al. 2003: the vast majority of elite Ethiopian runners come from two provinces and elite Ethiopian marathon runners were dramatically more likely to have to travel long distance to school each day: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941492998489923595/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941493212374261900/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/966494532650827776/unknown.png Dubrow 2010: both white and black NBA players mostly came from middle class backgrounds: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941493802928074772/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941493960554209340/unknown.png # media bias: race and performance Hughey and Goss 2015: in a sample of 326 articles discussing race and athletic performance in English-language newspapers, 203 (62%) supported racialist views for athlete success, 72 (22%) supported environmental views (usually culture or climate), and just 51 (16%) supported social constructivist views on race: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/957489731782987816/unknown.png # athleticism and racialism among respondents Hughey and Goss 2015: respondents to the 2004 General Social Survey were significantly more likely to attribute black athletic performance to genetics than white athletic performance: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/957464794661789767/unknown.png Table 1 and Figure 1 examine white respondents’ attribution of black athleticism to environmental factors compared to genetic factors. ^ variable used: GENEVIG1 + GENEVIG2 + GENENVO1 + GENENVO2 + GENENVO3 + GENENVO4, several vignettes include either a black man or a white man who is athletic, then GENENVO# rate whether a trait was mostly environmental (1) or mostly genetic (21): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/957463316836536380/unknown.png Morning 2009: "only blacks’ presence in a sport could be explained by biological characteristics, and even their absence from certain sports could be attributed to their ostensible physical capacities: e.g., lack of body fat to swim. When whites or other groups were at issue, however, culture replaced biology entirely as causal mechanism": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/957743905875587082/unknown.png #####c ##### # body morphology and racialism #####o # morphology: height: no strong evidence of difference, especially at younger ages ancestry can only explain 2-4% of the differences in size of healthy babies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/541318539110383648/unknown.png With variance component analysis, **we showed that only between 1·9% and 3·5% of the total variability in fetal skeletal growth and newborn length could be attributed to between-site differences.** This is remarkably similar to the 3% variability reported by both the WHO MGRS for infant length,10 and Habicht and colleagues7 for child height. [....] Nevertheless, as we recognised in the protocol,15 some variability in these populations remained, mostly at the extremes of gestational age in some parameters. This variation might have arisen because of residual secular trends, true inter-ethnic diff erences,10 unstable estimations due to the small sample sizes at some gestational age windows, or simply diff erences in protocol implementation despite our best eff orts to standardise rigorously across the study sites. **However, we confirmed that such variability among sites represents only 3% of the total variance for skeletal growth, whereas the variability in individuals within a site is seven times higher (table 3).** [....] These results support pooling of the data for the construction of international standards. The data are in strong agreement with those of the WHO MGRS, and suggest that **differences reported in the scientific literature in fetal growth and newborn size are more likely due to environmental and socioeconomic differences than genetic variation, as has been shown for infants and children.** metastudy: ethnicity can only explain 2.6% (1.5-4.6%) of the difference in height and 6.3% (2.6-9.1%) in weight of preschoolers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/581741226076798978/unknown.png the average height of adult South Korean people have grown to almost the adult height of American people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/574006642014945281/unknown.png the average height of adult Japanese people have grown to almost the height of adult American people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/581738248712355840/20140530123635.png # morphology: skull shape: no obvious reason to suggest selection Relethford 2002: naive examination of skin color variation across areas suggests evolutionary selection (because differences are large between regions), but not cranial shape variation (and most examined features were similarly locally variant, not inter-regionally variant): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982752587734454342/unknown.png These methods are applied to global data on craniometric variation (57 traits) and skin color. Multivariate analysis of craniometric variation shows results similar to those obtained from genetic markers and DNA polymorphisms: roughly 13% of the total diversity is among regions, 6% among local populations within regions, and 81% within local populations. This distribution is concordant with neutral genetic markers. Skin color shows the opposite pattern, with 88% of total variation among regions, 3% among local populations within regions, and 9% within local populations, a pattern shaped by natural selection. # morphology: dick size: no evidence of difference Veale 2015: as of 2015, there is no high-quality evidence for differences in penis size by race, and the available evidence suggests against it: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879088984918196234/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/630663015615823902/unknown.png """It is not possible from the present meta-analysis to draw any conclusions about any differences in penile size across different races. Lynn suggest that penis length and girth are greatest in Negroids (sub-Saharan Africans), intermediate in Caucasoids (Europeans, South Asians and North African), and smallest in Mongoloids (East Asians), but this is based upon studies that did not meet our present inclusion and exclusion criteria. The greatest proportion of the participants in the present meta-analysis were Caucasoids. There was only one study of 320 men in Negroids and two studies of 445 men in Mongoloids. There are no indications of differences in racial variability in our present study, e.g. the study from Nigeria was not a positive outlier. The question of racial variability can only be resolved by the measurements with large enough population being made by practitioners following the same method with other variables that may influence penis size (such as height) being kept constant. Future studies should also ensure they accurately report the race of their participants and conduct inter-rater reliability.""" ^ Nigerian study, 1985: ^ Korean study, 2011: ^ Tanzania study, 2013: ^ Indian study, 2007: in Brazil, among 450 urological inpatients with no complaints, black men had penises 0.7 centimeters (0.276 inches) longer than white men: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/630675222294560768/unknown.png #####c ##### # medicine and racialism #####o # genetic testing superior genetic testing is far superior to ethnicity for providing personalized medicine: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641983496683782184/cptclpt2008114-fig-0001-m.png Given these trends, race/ethnicity should be considered only a makeshift solution for personalized genomics because it is too approximate; known differences may occur within a defined category. One example of such variability is provided by CYP2D6, which is involved in metabolizing codeine, antipsychotics, and antidepressants. The CYP2D6*17 form has moderately lower enzymatic activity than the wild type. However, different populations within Africa can have different frequencies for a variant. The *17 allele in CYP2D6 is found in 9%, 17%, and 34% of the Ethiopian, Tanzanian, and Zimbabwean populations, respectively. Clearly, lumping together all of Africa obscures the differences between the populations. The label “African” or “African-American” is therefore insufficient to determine whether an individual comes from a population with a high frequency of the *17 allele. Even if an individual is known to be, for example, Ethiopian rather than Zimbabwean, the ancestry is less relevant than the true genotype, which could be easily resolved with today's technology. # bidil there's no evidence that bidil is more effective among african-americans -- it was only tested in african-americans: """In 2001 NitroMed, a small pharmaceutical company focused on bringing BiDil to market and began a double-blind, placebo-controlled study to investigate BiDil’s race specificity. They enrolled approximately one thousand people who “self-identified as black (defined as of African descent)” and hoped to demonstrate that BiDil was more effective than the placebo. In summer 2004, researchers halted the study prematurely; analysis of the initial data revealed a 43 percent decreased mortality rate among patients on BiDil compared to those on placebo.""""""Opponents of the race-specificity claim argued that such claims were empirically unfounded. After all, the NitroMed study did not enroll any other self-identified races (Dorr and Jones 2008). Hence, it actually had zero data on the effect of race specificity. Still, the power of biological determinism and racial essentialism held. After the FDA’s advisory council met in June 2005 to consider arguments for and against BiDil and its claims of race-specific metabolism, the FDA approved BiDil as a medication indicated for use specifically in self-identified blacks (cf. Gellene 2005).""" no, this study did not examine BIDIL -- it only found that black people are at higher risk of a particular kind of heart disease: # diabetes race is not the best explanation for differences in diabetes: it's urbanization and resulting diet: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640932950447226880/bjos12118-fig-5001.png To return to the extraordinarily high rate of diabetes among the Pima, an alternative to the genetic approach sets the analytic frame in a broader sociohistorical context. Those who approach the matter from this angle have a very different view of how to think about diabetes prevention and treatment. In the graphic below on ‘prevalence of diabetes in related populations’ note the striking pattern of urban versus rural dwelling among six populations across the globe. Those who live in urban areas and consume a westernized diet have a very high rate of diabetes, but those who have lived in ‘traditional’ sites where they practice ‘traditional culture’ hardly experience any diabetes. # cystic fibrosis racial medicine results in underdiagnosis of cycstic fibrosis among nonwhite people: The highest reported prevalence of CF is among individuals of Caucasian descent,7 in whom it is the leading cause of death among autosomal recessive diseases.7,8 It was assumed that CF only affected Caucasians, which skewed research efforts. [....] Several factors prevent the identification of CF patients on the African continent within the critical 6-week window. First, the assumption among clinicians that CF predominantly affects Caucasians has not been completely dispelled, resulting in underdiagnosis among non-Caucasians. #####c ##### # politics and racialism #####o # race as predictor of politics people are more divided by party identification than by race, religion, education, generation, or gender: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634185198170406912/Takeaways_fix1.png # support for hate speech laws by race Pew Research 2015: on support for hate speech laws, nonwhite Americans are closer to white Americans than are Europeans are to white Americans: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1075901892854550578/image.png ^ Alternative Hypothesis literally agrees with me on this one: # significance political identity causes some people to change their racial, religious, or sexual identity: Liberal Democrats were much more likely than conservative Republicans to start identifying as Latino or saying that their ancestry was African, Asian or Hispanic. Conservative Republicans were much more likely than liberal Democrats to become born-again Christians and to stop identifying as non-religious; liberal Democrats were much more likely than conservative Republicans to leave religion and stop describing themselves as born-again. Conservative Republicans were more likely than liberal Democrats to stop describing themselves as lesbian, gay or bisexual; liberal-leaning Democrats were more likely to start identifying as lesbian, gay or bisexual. # liberals exposure to Spanish speakers in Boston decreased support for immigration but the effect wore off over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/547166977341521921/unknown.png racism causes poor white people to oppose leftism: https://academic.oup.com/sf/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/sf/soy046/5002999 [xxx unread] #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # public opinion on race [axis three] # # #####o ##### # # public opinion about perceived bigotry # #####o ##### # racism against nonwhite people: large decline over time #####o # multiple questions: support declining white republicans hold slightly more racist beliefs than white democrats; however, both have seen substantial (10-15%) decreases in explicit racist attitudes from 1990-2012:: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/673315431389593601/silver-index-racial-92.png among non-Republicans, over 5 questions, white racism has declined over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/735169273328042094/image-11.png there has been a long decline of white racist attitudes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641982250673504286/unknown.png # white nationalism: support low & flat among white people 23 May 2018: 2% of white people consider themselves a supporter of the alt-right or white nationalist movement and 92% do not: 21 April 2018: 2% of white people consider themselves a supporter of the alt-right or white nationalist movement and 92% do not: 22 January-22 February 2018: 2% of white people consider themselves a supporter of the alt-right or white nationalist movement and 92% do not: 16-20 August 2017: 8% of white people describe themselves as supporters of the alt-right and 50% an opponent: 21 August-05 September 2017: among white people, antifa is more popular than white nationalism: 4% of white people support Neo-Nazism (80% oppose, 0.050:1); 5% of white people support the alt-right movement (53% oppose, 0.094:1); 8% support white nationalism (64% oppose, 0.125:1); 7% support antifa (42% oppose, 0.1666:1); 26% support Black Lives Matter (44% oppose, 0.619:1): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/576658429116940289/unknown.png 2016: 6% of white people think their race is very/extremely important to their identity, think that "whites work[ing] together to change laws that are unfair to whites" is very/extremely important, and think that white people experience moderate discrimination: # immigration: support medium & flat among white people the portion of white people worried about illegal immigration is not rising: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640927266251079693/hctoboorme-j5zzqgsw4aq.png support for immigration has remained flat among white people 2001-2016: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/494241543796949002/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640927329719287838/jjbammm1eemetfsvoejbng.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636920562706284607/unknown.png #####c ##### # racism against white people: reported slight increase over time #####o # discrimination against white people: support medium & increasing among white people 3-15 September 2019 Pew poll: among white respondents, 66% say any discrimination against white people exist: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/735204009807446026/unknown.png 1-2 March 2019 HarrisX: among white respondents, 62% say any discrimination against white people exists, 36% say "some" or "a lot" of discrimination against white people exists,: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/573676285100818432/unknown.png n=1003 (682 white), MOE = 3.1% overall 26 Jan-9 April 2017 NPR: among white respondents, 55% agree with "discrimination against whites exists in America today": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/573676826971471874/unknown.png n=902 white people, MOE=4.7pp for white people # racism against white people: support middling and increasing retrospectively, both black and white people report a decline in anti-black bias and an increase in anti-white bias; white people report more anti-white bias than anti-black bias in the 2000's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/735164176791634070/unknown.png from 2008 to 2015, the proportion of white people who claim that racism against white people is widespread has not risen: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640927483914616863/tsnjztewju6kcf0t223qra.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/629654572024987678/unknown.png #####c ##### # implicit association test: bad metric, no better than explicit racism metrics #####o # implicit association test is a poor metric Oscwald 2013: meta-study: """The metaanalysis estimates the heterogeneity of effects within and across 2 domains of intergroup bias (interracial and interethnic), 6 criterion categories (interpersonal behavior, person perception, policy preference, microbehavior, response time, and brain activity), 2 versions of the IAT (stereotype and attitude IATs), 3 strategies for measuring explicit bias (feeling thermometers, multi-item explicit measures such as the Modern Racism Scale, and ad hoc measures of intergroup attitudes and stereotypes), and 4 criterion-scoring methods (computed majority–minority difference scores, relative majority–minority ratings, minority-only ratings, and majorityonly ratings). IATs were poor predictors of every criterion category other than brain activity, and the IATs performed no better than simple explicit measures. These results have important implications for the construct validity of IATs, for competing theories of prejudice and attitude– behavior relations, and for measuring and modeling prejudice and discrimination.""" # implicit bias weakly correlates with explicit bias Hofmann 2005: meta-study: IAT has a low but significantly positive correlation with explicit racism: """Based on a sample of 126 studies, the mean effect size was .24, with approximately half of the variability across correlations attributable to moderator variables. Correlations systematically increased as a function of (a) increasing spontaneity of self-reports and (b) increasing conceptual correspondence between measures. These results suggest that implicit and explicit measures are generally related but that higher order inferences and lack of conceptual correspondence can reduce the influence of automatic associations on explicit self-reports.""" # implicit bias weakly correlates with actual behavior Dehon 2017: across 9 studies, medical workers presented implicit bias against black people (+.33 standard deviations, between "slight" and "moderate") but there was no systematic bias towards prescribing white people with treatments: """Two of the nine studies found evidence of a relationship between implicit bias and physician clinical decision making. One of these two studies included EM providers. This moderate quality study, which included both EM and Internal Medicine residents, found that an implicit preference for whites was significantly associated with treating whites patients and not treating black patients with thrombolysis for myocardial infarction. 25 Another moderate quality study21 -22 found evidence of bias influencing pediatricians’ clinical decision making in 1 of 4 vignettes. This study reported that implicit preference for white people was associated with not prescribing black patients narcotic medication for postsurgical pain. However, in this same study, implicit preference for white people was also associated with prescribing white patients ibuprofen and not the ideal treatment (oxycodone). There was no evidence of a relationship between physician clinical decision making and any of the additional IAT measures , including the social class IAT, medical compliance IAT, quality care IAT.""" #####c ##### # implicit racism: low levels with slight decrease over time #####o # implicit racism: declined over time implicit racism (measured by IAT) and explicit (measured by stated preference) has declined: n=4,393,362, https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/734874207552405534/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/734874231002890300/unknown.png """The IAT (Greenwald, McGhee, & Schwartz, 1998) is a computerized task comparing reaction times to categorize paired concepts (in this case, social groups, e.g., young vs. elderly) and attributes (in this case, valence categories, e.g., good vs. bad).""""""Explicit preference. Explicit attitudes before 2007 were assessed on a 5-point Likert-type scale from −2 to 2, with higher scores indicating bias in favor of the typically preferred group (e.g., “I strongly prefer young people to old people”) and lower scores indicating the reverse bias (e.g., “I strongly prefer old people to young people”).""""""Addressing sample changes over time. Observed change may be an artifact of changes in the demographic composition of the sample over time. That is, observed attitude change toward neutrality could come not from true attitude change but from increasing numbers of female, liberal, young, non-White, or less-educated respondents, all of whom have been documented to have lower implicit bias (Nosek et al., 2007).""""""To control for sampling changes, we calculated weights for all participants on the demographic variables of age, race, gender, education, and political orientation.""" # experimental evidence: ingroup bias: no evidence of white bias, evidence for black bias across 17 experimental studies, non-Hispanic white & Hispanic participants exhibited no pro-white/pro-Hispanic bias, while non-Hispanic black participants exhibited a small pro-black bias: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/735170299242479646/unknown.png White participants: n=10435, pointe estimate=0.042, p=0.254, confidence interval=[-0.030, 0.115]; Black participants: n=2781, point estimate=0.313, p=0.002, confidence interval=[0.117, 0.508]; Hispanic participants: n=1261, point estimate=0.007, p=0.881, confidence interval=[-0.084, 0.097] # experimental evidence: ingroup bias: evidence of small ingroup bias in general meta-analysis of 171 studies: standardized mean difference in ingroup cooperation compared to outgroup cooperation was 0.30 d (~1/3 of a standard deviation higher): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/735194043478311003/unknown.png """Summarizing four decades of experiments on intergroup discrimination in cooperation, we find that people demonstrate a consistently small positive preference to incur a personal cost to provide benefits to ingroup members, compared to outgroup members.""" #####c ##### # intermixing: large increase over time #####o # interracial marriage has become dramatically more common Pew 2017: the interracial marriage rate is rising: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640927739741732872/PST_2017.png Pew 2017: the interracial marriage rate is rising among white people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/725704797189177344/PST_2017.png # interracial marriage has become dramatically more popular Gallup 1959-2013: approval of interracial marriage is rising: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640927725749665825/bb8ic2qate-wa_cbgc2ifg.png Gallup 1990-2016: disapproval of interracial marriage is falling: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640927761594056734/PST_2017.png # residential segregation has become slightly less common Logan Stults 2011: overall White-Black residential segregation has declined since 1970, but not changed for White-Hispanic or White-Asian segregation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643156190595121162/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643156507155890176/unknown.png segregation in decline: white-black (68.4 to 53.5), Hispanic-black (59.7 to 43.2), black-white (72.8 to 59.1), black-Hispanic (60.4 to 45.9), black-Asian (72.3 to 56.9), Asian-black (64.8 to 50.6); segregation not declining: white-hispanic, white-Asian, Hispanic-white, Hispanic-Asian, Asian-white, Asian-hispanic; segregation in increase: none #####c ##### # misc #####o # polls against n word usage King et al 2018: most black people say that nobody should be able to say the N word: """A majority (76%) of respondents agreed that it is never acceptable for nonBlacks to use the N-word with anyone in any situation. Fifty-six percent of respondents agreed that it is never acceptable for anyone to use N-word derivatives with anyone in any situation.""" Frankovic 2018: Democrats as a whole are more likely than black people as a whole to think the N word is offensive: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/808381694968725545/Racism202.png #####c #####c ##### # # black lives matter: mixed evidence, probably increasing # #####o ##### # opinion polling #####o # support over time support for black lives matter over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/753615737859473538/unknown.png # support for related issues increased belief that police are racially biased: """A majority of Americans (57%) say that police officers facing a difficult or dangerous situation are more likely to use excessive force if the culprit is black, compared to one-third (33%) who say the police are just as likely to use excessive force against black and white culprits in the same type of situation. The current findings represent a marked change in public opinion from prior polls. In a poll of registered voters taken after the police shooting of Alton Sterling in Louisiana in July 2016, just 34% said blacks were more likely to be subject to excessive force while 52% said they were just as likely as whites. In December 2014, after a grand jury declined to indict a New York City police officer in the chokehold death of Eric Garner, the results were 33% more likely and 58% just as likely.""" increased belief that racial-ethnic discrimination is a big problem: """The poll finds that 76% of Americans now say that racial and ethnic discrimination is a big problem in the United States, while 16% say it is a lesser problem and just 7% say it is not a problem. The number who say discrimination is a big problem has increased from 51% in January 2015 and 68% in July 2016. Large majorities of Americans who are black (90%), from other minority groups (81%), and white (71%) say racial and ethnic discrimination is a big problem.""" # demographics of protesters demographics of black lives matter protesters in June 2020: ~80% white, ~90% within their city, ~55% male: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/753614681439994016/unknown.png # irony most Republicans who think people are too easily offended think Black Lives Matter is offensive; most Republicans who think you should be free to say your political beliefs at work think athletes shouldn't kneel during the national anthem: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/556654615849074688/unknown.png #####c ##### # violence in blm protests: small #####o # few protests were violent the ACLED database found that 7% of protests associated with black lives matter were violent (involving destruction of property): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/752633365651390504/Demonstrations-Associated-with-Black-Lives-Matter-BLM-by-Demonstration-Type-24-May-22-August-2020.png """The vast majority of demonstration events associated with the BLM movement are non-violent (see map below). In more than 93% of all demonstrations connected to the movement, demonstrators have not engaged in violence or destructive activity. Peaceful protests are reported in over 2,400 distinct locations around the country. Violent demonstrations,3 meanwhile, have been limited to fewer than 220 locations — under 10% of the areas that experienced peaceful protests.""" # violence often postceded state intervention the ACLED database found that violence did not occur during CHOP in Seattle but did occur more often afterward: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/752638231341826118/US4.png # data sources ACLED data sources: reputable journalists or institutitons: """The ACLED team reviews hundreds of sources each week to collect information on events. To date, information is drawn from over 1,500 distinct sources.""""""ACLED does not crowdsource information, such as through broad scraping Twitter for tweets, given that the source of such information cannot be verified. ACLED does use social media in its coverage; however, this is limited to only trusted, verified accounts, such as journalist accounts.""" # definitions ACLED definition of political violence: """[E]xcessive use of force by police; mass shootings; non-state militias operating in both urban and rural contexts[; ...] violent mobs which seek to take justice into their own hands outside of state law; violence involving extremist groups[; ...] hate crimes against minority and vulnerable populations[; ...] amongst others.""""""[O]nly those mass shootings (three or more victims) that are designed to terrorize a population or specific group (rather than target(s) personally connected to the perpetrator) are included.""""""ACLED includes events of police brutality where the details conform to our global standards of political violence. [....] [O]nly police engagements that are explicitly outside of established legal parameters are included, however unfair the existing constraints on police behavior may be.""""""ACLED captures hate crimes when they are perpetrated by groups, or single members of groups, and only codes an event perpetrated by a "lone wolf" without group affiliations in a public "mass" attack[.]""" ACLED definition of rioting vs protesting: """This is not a normative distinction, but rather a methodological one. Protesters refers to demonstrators that are peaceful, and not engaging in any destructive or disruptive behavior (e.g. violence, vandalism, looting, etc.) Rioters, on the other hand, refer to demonstrators engaging in violence, vandalism, looting, etc. If the character of an event changes from non-violent to violent, then the event will be coded as how it ultimately ended (i.e. violently). However, if two events occur concurrently in the same or a similar location, and it is clear that they are distinct, independent, and differ with respect to peaceful protest or rioting, two events are coded.""" ACLED definitions of event types: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/752631092804190328/unknown.png """To work with political violence events specifically, look for events coded with ‘Event Type’ Violence against civilians, Explosions/Remote violence, and Battles, as well as events coded with ‘Event Type’ Riots with sub-event type Mob violence.""" #####c #####c ##### # # white nationalism and right-wing populism in usa: mixed evidence, probably decreasing # #####o ##### # hate crimes: rising, correlated w/ trumpism #####o # Rushin and Edwards 2018: good study, do cite countywide Trump support in 2016 correlated with increased hate crimes in that county: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565311410389778435/unknown.png """Our outcome of interest is the count of hate crimes as reported by the FBI’s UCR database. Hate crimes have been reported since 1992 and are released annually as part of the FBI’s larger report on crime statistics.49 Our data set includes all quarterly reported hate crimes between 1992 and 2016.""" # Feinberg, Branton, and Martinez-Ebers 2018: bad study, don't cite countywide Trump support in 2016 predicted a higher level of hate crimes: ^ why this is a terrible study: #####c ##### # support for progresive race attitudes #####o # reparations: gov to descendants of slaves 2018 July 13-16 Data For Progress: reparations was +15% among working class POC and +5% among college-educated POC: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885663237629173770/unknown.png 2016 May Marist: among black respondents, 58% said the US should "pay money to African-Americans who are descendants of slaves" and 35% said should not: "As a way to make up for the harm caused by slavery and other forms of racial discrimination, do you think the United States should or should not pay reparations, that is, should or should not pay money to African-Americans who are descendants of slaves?" 2015 Aug 25-Oct 3 CNN-Kaiser: among black respondents, 52% supported "cash payments to Black Americans who are descendants of slaves": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885648235123851264/unknown.png 2015 Aug 25-Oct 3 CNN-Kaiser: among black respondents, 60% supported "free healthcare for Black Americans who are descendants of slaves": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885649657408131092/unknown.png 2015 Feb 17-20 YouGov: among black respondents, 61% supported "cash payments to black Americans who are descendants of slaves", 19% opposed, and 21% were not sure: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885232790579327057/unknown.png """Do you think the government should or should not make cash payments to black Americans who are descendants of slaves?""" 2014 May 23-27 YouGov: among black respondents, 59% supported "cash payments" and 63% supported "education and job training programs" offered by the government to "black Americans who are the descendants of slaves": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885647268596809748/reparations7.png https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-americans-think-about-reparations-and-other-race-related-questions/ Reparations: A July 2018 survey from the left-leaning Data for Progress found that 26 percent of Americans supported some kind of compensation or cash benefits for the descendants of slaves. A May 2016 Marist survey also found that 26 percent of Americans said the U.S. should pay reparations as “a way to make up for the harm caused by slavery and other forms of racial discrimination.”3 2002 Jan 25-Feb 10 CNN/USA Today/Gallup: among black respondents, 55% supported "cash payments to Black Americans who are descendants of slaves": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885648588334588004/unknown.png # reparations: gov to black citizens 2016 May Marist: among black respondents, 63% said the US should "pay money to African-Americans who are U.S. citizens" and 32% said should not: "Do you think the United States should or should not pay reparations for slavery and other forms of racial discrimination, that is, should or should not pay money to African-Americans who are U.S. citizens?" # reparations: private companies 2016 May Marist: among black respondents, 75% said private companies that admit profiting from slavery should "pay money to African-Americans who descendants of slaves" and 21% said should not: "Do you think private companies who have admitted and apologized for profiting from American Slavery, should or should not pay reparations, that is, should or should not pay money to African-Americans who are descendants of slaves?" 2016 May Marist: among black respondents, 64% said private companies that admit profiting from slavery should "pay money to African-Americans who are U.S. citizens" and 33% said should not: "Do you think private companies who have admitted and apologized for profiting from American Slavery, should or should not pay reparations, that is, should or should not "pay money to African-Americans who are U.S. citizens?" # government programs: affirmative action, school funding, civil rights laws 2018 Gallup: among black respondents from 2001-2018, between 70 and 75% support "affirmative action programs for racial minorities": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885645266823286855/uw7mvg3vnk-fxxtsc12lvq.png 2016 Gallup: among black respondents from 2001-2016, between 54 and 71% support "a major government role to improve the social and economic positions of minority groups": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885645710446432276/igll55wk4uavrux1dn2j4w.png 2015 Aug 25-Oct 3 CNN-Kaiser: among black respondents, 89% said it is "the responsibility of the federal government" to ensure equal treatment by "the courts and police", 82% said equal quality in schools, and 67% equal incomes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885649268906532964/unknown.png 2015 Gallup: among black respondents from 1993-2015, between 70 and 52% have support "new civil rights laws laws are needed to reduce discrimination against blacks": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885646329785765968/e-scv083_ki2prjlaac7ya.png #####c ##### # 2016 election #####o trump did worse among white people than romney did: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/494236912375169041/demographics.png # bad studies trump vote is predicted by cultural anxiety: """Fears about cultural displacement. White working-class voters who say they often feel like a stranger in their own land and who believe the U.S. needs protecting against foreign influence were 3.5 times more likely to favor Trump than those who did not share these concerns.""""""Economic hardship. Notably, while only marginally significant at conventional levels (P<0.1), being in fair or poor financial shape actually predicted support for Hillary Clinton among white working-class Americans, rather than support for Donald Trump. Those who reported being in fair or poor financial shape were 1.7 times more likely to support Clinton, compared to those who were in better financial shape.""" trump vote is predicted by christian nationalism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470973926248284189/m_srx07001.png _**Predictors:**_ **Sexism:** "Most men are better suited emotionally for politics than most women", "It is God’s will that women care for children", "A preschool child is likely to suffer if his or her mother works", "A husband should earn a larger salary than his wife". **Racism:** "Police officers in the United States treat blacks the same as whites", "Police officers in the United States shoot blacks more often because they are more violent than whites". **Xenophobia:** "Illegal immigrants from Mexico are mostly dangerous criminals." **Islamophobia:** "Refugees from the Middle East pose a terrorist threat to the United States", "Muslims hold values that are morally inferior to the values of people like me", "Muslims want to limit the personal freedoms of people like me", "Muslims endanger the physical safety of people like me". _**Controls:**_ economic satisfaction, political ideology, political party affiliation, conservative theological beliefs, conservative religious practice, conservative religious affiliation, biblical literalism views, frequency of attendance at religious services, frequency of prayer, frequency of reading sacred texts, religious identity (evangelical Protestants, mainline Protestants, black Protestants, Catholics, other religions, nonaffiliated), age, gender, race, marital status, city size, education, income. trump vote is predicted by racism and sexism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/455974996737654784/unknown.png **Sexism:** 1. Women are too easily offended. 2. Many women are actually seeking special favors, such as hiring policies that favor them over men, under the guise of asking for "equality." 3. Women seek to gain power by getting control over men. 4. When women lose to men in a fair competition, they typically complain about being discriminated against. **Racism:** 1. White people in the U.S. have certain advantages because of the color of their skin. 2. Racial problems in the U.S. are rare, isolated situations. 3. I am angry that racism exists ^ COBRAS scale: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/501116481766162443/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/501122594963980289/unknown.png #####c ##### # immigration and trump vote #####o # lower immigration and trade imports predicts higher trump vote trump vote is predicted by isolated whiteness, not immigration or importation ("degree affected by globalism"): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/509192067402956841/unknown.png However, an examination of the geographical concentration of support for Donald Trump in the presidential primaries indicates a negative correlation between the number of Trump supporters and the population size of Mexican immigrants, as well as a negative correlation between Trump support and import competition from Mexico or China. Areas with high concentration of Mexican immigrants and import exposure to Mexico and China are actually more likely to favor Hillary another Republican candidate or Hillary Clinton. # lower immigration predicts higher trump vote trump vote is predicted by isolated whiteness, not immigration or importation ("degree affected by globalism"): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/509192930343387146/unknown.png The 2016 US presidential nominee Donald Trump has broken with the policies of previous Republican Party presidents on trade, immigration, and war, in favor of a more nationalist and populist platform. **Using detailed Gallup survey data for 125,000 American adults, we analyze the individual and geographic factors that predict a higher probability of viewing Trump favorably. The results show mixed evidence that economic distress has motivated Trump support. His supporters are less educated and more likely to work in blue collar occupations, but they earn relatively high household incomes and are no less likely to be unemployed or exposed to competition through trade or immigration. On the other hand, living in racially isolated communities with worse health outcomes, lower social mobility, less social capital, greater reliance on social security income and less reliance on capital income, predicts higher levels of Trump support.** We confirm the theoretical results of our regression analysis using machine learning algorithms and an extensive set of additional variables. #####c #####c ##### # # white nationalism and right-wing populism in europe: mixed evidence, probably rising # #####o ##### # europe overall #####o # elections the far-right vote share over time in europe is very mixed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535541973646311434/unknown.png far-right vote share by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640928079295807498/106632326_eu_far_right_map_280419_640-nc.png guardian article w/ good graph? xxx reread # public opinon polls immigration positive impact by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535551763676397583/unknown.png too many immigrants by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535551878910705664/unknown.png uncomfortable with changes caused by immigration by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535551999115132928/unknown.png immigration pressuring public services by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535552094032232469/unknown.png immigration hurting employment by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535552186940391434/unknown.png immigration economic impacts by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535552275532349461/unknown.png closing borders, no refugees by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535552484404494379/unknown.png refugees aren't really refugees by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535552635315683339/unknown.png confident in integration of immigration by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535552739804053527/unknown.png #####c ##### # white racism in germany #####o the youth (under 30 years) are much more likely to vote for leftist parties (SPD ["Socialist Party of Germany"], Grüne ["Greens"], Linke ["Left"]) than German voters in general: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/668792551817347082/chart_384758.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/668792931980804127/Bildschirmfoto-2019-06-03-um-15.png #####c ##### # white racism in france #####o # elections Results 2017/2012: Socialists (28.63/6.36,-22.3), Republicans (27.18/20.01,-7.1), National Front (17.9/21.3,+4.6), Melenchon (11.10/19.58,+8.5), Macron (0/24.01,+24): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641982350548402186/C-HxUTWXkAAXbF-.png Le Pen did monotonically better among older groups (execpt 60+ year-olds who're loyal to the Gaulist National Front): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/633716864878379029/C-HxUTWXkAAXbF-.png # polls on immigration Opposition to immigration has not risen from 2002-2014 in France: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535539850758193155/unknown.png #####c ##### # # black nationalism and black separatism in us # #####o ##### # popularity of black nationalism and black separatism #####o # explicit black socioeconomic independence 2015 Feb 17-20 YouGov: among Black respondents, 22% supported separatism, 55% supported integration, and 23% did not know: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/981787775965737010/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/885232883306987530/unknown.png """Do you think blacks or African-Americans will get ahead better in this country by controlling their own schools, running their own business, and living together in their own neighborhoods OR do you think they will get ahead better through integration with the white people in schools, jobs, and neighborhoods?""" # studies todo https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/du-bois-review-social-science-research-on-race/article/abs/true-to-our-native-land-distinguishing-attitudinal-support-for-panafricanism-from-black-separatism/2378116FD1172FA43A339347603DCB11 1984 National Black Election Study (NBES-84): https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/8938 1984-88 National Black Election Panel Study (NBEPS-84-88): https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/9954 ^ https://www.csmonitor.com/1994/0505/05013.html ``The discontent we saw in the mid- and late-1980s that was concentrated among poor African-Americans has spread among African-Americans of all social backgrounds,'' says Michael Dawson, a University of Chicago political science professor and the author of a report on the survey. Some 56 percent of black Americans say that blacks should participate in black-only organizations and half said blacks should form their own political party - a jump from just 24 percent in 1988, according to Dr. Dawson. 1993 National Black Politics Study (NBPS-93): https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/2018 ^ https://www.jstor.org/stable/3512367 National Black Politics Study (NBPS), conducted by the Center for the Study of Race, Politics and Culture at the University of Chicago in 1993. The NBPS is a national cross sectional sur- vey that yields a sample of 12063 African American adult res ... were asked their degree of agreement with the fol- lowing statements: (a) Blacks should participate in black only organizations; (b) Blacks should always vote for black candidates when they run; (c) Black people should shop in black stores whenever possible; (d) Blacks should support the creation of all male public schools for black youth; (e) Black children should study an African language; (f) Blacks should have control over the government in mostly black communities; (g) Blacks should have control over the economy in mostly black communities; (h) Blacks should have their own separate nation. This index, ranging from 0-32, was highly reliable with an alpha coeffici 1996 National Black Election Study (NBES-96): https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/2029 1996 National Black Election Study Pilot (NBES-96p): https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/1125 National Survey of Black Americans 1979-80, 87-88, 88-89, 92 (NSBA): https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/6668 check these: https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/search/studies?AUTHOR_FACET=Jackson,%20James%20S.%20(James%20Sidney) #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # benefits of diversity [axis three] # # #####o ##### # # diversity improves various outcomes # #####o ##### # social trust and diversity #####o # specific studies london: diversity actually *increases trust* and segregation decreases trust for young people (who grew up in a diverse society) but not for old people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643217745151787008/rers_a_831932_f0003_oc.png These relationships are strongly moderated by age cohort: the positive effect of diversity and the negative effect of segregation among the youngest adults both weaken over successive cohorts, until the direction of the association is reversed among the oldest residents of London's neighbourhoods. The moderating effect of age on the association between diversity and social cohesion for white residents provides further evidence in support of the idea that growing up in a multicultural society in which ethnic minorities play a visible and positive role serves to shift the attitudes and behaviours of younger ethnic majority cohorts in prosocial directions. [....] We include the following individual-level control variables that are plausibly related to both social cohesion and neighbourhood preference: age; sex; ethnic group; social class; marital status; housing tenure; and the length of time that an individual has lived in the area. for four measures of positive neighborhood beliefs, class was significant for 4, age for 3, education for 3, racial diversity for 1: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634182353979179008/unknown.png # metastudies: ethnic diversity across 87 studies, ethnic diversity negatively predicted trust, but could explain just 0.66% of variation in trust: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/638488088557125643/unknown.png In substantive terms, the partial correlation of -0.0256 (se = 0.0044) between ethnic diversity and trust is rather modest. Under the scenario of our back-of-the-envelope calculation (see above), it corresponds to a 0.66% increase in the aggregate between-context unit R^2 after all other variables in the model have been accounted for (see Online Supplement C). in metastudy, about as many studies studies reject as support the "diversity causes distrust" hypothesis (support:reject ratio of 1:2 for country, 2:1 for region, 1:2 for city, 1.5:1 for neighborhood): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/544262606438006814/unknown.png We find that (a) there is consistent support for the constrict claim for aspects of social cohesion that are spatially bounded to neighborhoods, (b) support for the constrict claim is more common in the United States than in other countries, and (c) ethnic diversity is not related to less interethnic social cohesion. # metastudies: contact theory in metastudy, most studies show that contact hypotheses between individuals reduce bigotry by about 0.2-0.4 standard deviation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634653050677624832/unknown.png increased foreign-born populations increase trust (multi- and nonmulticulturalist, equal societies), increase organization membership (multi- and nonmulticulturalist, equal societies), increase political action (multiculturalist, equal societies) across the world, 1980-2000, N=66573 to 77756: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634658706931449857/unknown.png #####c ##### # economic performance and diversity #####o # diverse firms perform better race-diverse startups are more successful than race-homogenous: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/456636044125667339/unknown.png race-diverse retail stores are more successful than race-homogenous: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/456640748205506574/unknown.png #####c ##### # affirmative action #####o # mechanism: summary Arcidiacono Lovenheim Zhu 2015: literature review: affirmative action primarily operates by shifting which colleges minority students apply to, not whether they apply to college at all: """Arcidiacono (2005) allows admissions probabilities and financial aid to vary for blacks and whites in estimation. He then uses the estimates to forecast how black decisions and outcomes would change if they faced the admissions rules that whites faced. The counterfactual simulations show that removing racial preferences reduces the earnings of black students, but the effect is very small. The reason for this is twofold: (a) Similar to the results in Section 4.2, Arcidiacono finds that affirmative action primarily affects where students go to college not whether they go at all, and (b) the estimated returns to college quality are low. Indeed, the estimated returns to being a science or business major are substantially larger than a one–standard deviation change in college quality. Arcidiacono finds a bigger effect on earnings if racial preferences in financial aid are removed, as doing so reduces black college enrollment. One caveat is that college quality is proxied for by the average math SAT score of the student body.13 To the extent that this is a noisy measure of college quality, the returns to college quality may be biased downward (for a discussion of this issue, see Black & Smith 2004, 2006).""" # mismatch: effect on graduation rates: summary Arcidiacono Lovenheim Zhu 2015: literature review: affirmative action bans do not appear to affect the graduation rate of minority students -- which is surprising, given that affirmative action bans force minority students toward "worse" colleges: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1160086494808113284/image.png?ex=653361bd&is=6520ecbd&hm=9a9252977ccc2fc4aa80367875e6289e1fa33ce88da222f57d2bfe9bad687fe7& Affirmative Action in Undergraduate Education """That affirmative action bans do not affect minority college graduation rates even though there is a large average effect of college quality on graduation is surprising. There are two potential explanations for these seemingly conflicting sets of results, which are not mutually exclusive. First, the opposing effects of an increase in college quality and decrease in academic match quality may offset each other in the presence of affirmative action. An implication of this explanation is that moving minority students out of the lowest-ranked colleges at which college quality effects dominate (Arcidiacono & Koedel 2015) and practicing mild affirmative action at elite schools at which match effects are more important could increase overall minority graduation rates. The second explanation flows from the findings of Arcidiacono et al. (2014) that universities spend more resources on minority student postban to help them succeed. Endogenous institutional responses may lead to a smaller (or larger) effect of banning affirmative action that makes it difficult to generalize the findings from these studies to other contexts. If a school responds to a ban in affirmative action by changing the way it treats URM students relative to majority students, one can view this as another form of affirmative action. That is, the school is targeting resources toward URM students to help them succeed (e.g., through tutoring, advising), but now the focus of affirmative action efforts is on the in-college experience rather than on admissions. In such a case, it is no longer clear what outcomes can causally be attributed to affirmative action itself. Institutional responses to affirmative action bans are not well understood, and we view this as an important avenue for future research.""" # mismatch: effect on graduation rates Hinrichs 2012: after statewide affirmative action bans in California, Texas, Washington, and Florida, there was no statistically significant increase in graduation rates of White people or under-represented minority (URM) people in Census-type surveys; however, they did cause a large (30%, or 5pp) reduction in the proportion of URM students at University of California's top four colleges: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1160083012319445112/image.png?ex=65335e7f&is=6520e97f&hm=b8da72efcf95c1825e4df6b06a014e0fd6ed51e6d88f9c9f8eead3002f583a51& Hinrichs 2014: affirmative action bans in the US in 1995 may slightly increase grauation rates for Hispanic students in the US News's top 115 universities (by around 2-3%, or around 0.6665*0.025 = 1.7pp), but did not affect other groups or overall rates; affirmative action bans likely decrease the proportion of Black students receiving a degree from a selective university (by around 1-1.5%, or around 3.3k students of 108k per year), but did not significantly affect Hispanics: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1160070314579992625/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1160070475603517574/image.png Ibanez Riener Rai 2013: in a field experiment in Colombia, affirmative action statements for a hiring notice for two positions (assistants and consultants) did not result in any differences in observed cognitive ability, which suggests against a change in the selectivity of the pool of applicants: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1160080872003883118/image.png?ex=65335c81&is=6520e781&hm=217031e63c88fc308346e40c96fb7a6767200bb9180f90c3be0c1fbe444448fe& https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1160080905856110602/image.png?ex=65335c89&is=6520e789&hm=a694f448c789c85b7befbbe06ee69c4707e4e554cffe3ae91e5339a5b21db583& Sorting Through Affirmative Action: Two Field Experiments in Colombia Oliveira Santos Severnini 2023: todo: Bridging the Gap: Mismatch Effects and Catch-Up Dynamics in a Brazilian College Affirmative Action # alternatives to affirmative action: percent plans Arcidiacono and Lovenheim 2014: review of the research on percent plans (see section 6); in short, the effects are unclear: Affirmative Action and the Quality–Fit Trade-off TODO REREAD #####c #####c ##### # # # tolerance: racial biases and their outcomes [axis three] # # #####o ##### # # racial bias in the criminal justice system # #####o ##### # courts and racial bias #####o # longer sentences for all crime types across all cases and with all controls, black males received 18.5% longer sentence than comparable white males: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/738789214363058186/unknown.png """The dependent variable used in each of the analyses was an offender’s total sentence length, in months, which included alternatives to imprisonment. Probationary sentences without conditions of confinement are included as sentences of zero months. The independent variables were: The presumptive sentence, which is the bottom of the applicable sentencing guideline range that applies in a case (i.e., the minimum sentence, in months, to which the offender was subject under the sentencing guidelines, taking into account all guideline, statutory, and mandatory minimum provisions); Type of offense committed (violent, sexual, pornography, drug trafficking, white collar, immigration, or other); Whether a statutory mandatory minimum punishment was applied at sentencing; Whether the court determined that a sentence outside the applicable sentencing guideline range was warranted; Detention status (whether the offender had been released on bail prior to sentencing); Whether the offender pleaded guilty; Race of the offender paired with the gender of the offender; Citizenship of the offender (whether the offender was a United States citizen); Educational level of the offender; and Age of the offender.""" # longer sentences from republicans Republican-appointed appointed give black defendants 3.0 months longer sentences than similarly situated defendants before Democratic-appointed judges (which explains 65% of the average difference in sentence length between black and white people): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024451124398391387/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/775916813124370452/unknown.png """Exploiting random case assignment, we find that Republican-appointed judges sentence black defendants to 3.0 more months than similar nonblacks and female defendants to 2.0 fewer months than similar males compared to Democratic-appointed judges, 65 percent of the baseline racial sentence gap and 17 percent of the baseline gender sentence gap, respectively. These differences cannot be explained by other judge characteristics and grow substantially larger when judges are granted more discretion.""" # evidence for racial bias strong evidence for racial bias in the criminal justice system exists: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/505577440848904232/unknown.png We produce these unbiased data with a Monte Carlo simulation by sampling from the actual data but mechanically breaking the judgedefendant race link. We find that there is substantial excess heterogeneity in the empirical distribution of the racial gap in the incarceration rate. The quantitative impact of this gap on sentencing disparity is of considerable magnitude. If a defendant assigned to a 10th-percentile judge was instead sentenced by a 90th-percentile judge, the racial gap in the incarceration rate would rise by a full 18 percentage points. [xxx reread poorly described!!!] #####c ##### # police and racial bias #####o # police killings are racially biased fryer data from texas: nonwhite people are more likely to be victims of police force but not of lethal force: nonwhite people are more likely to be killed by police in a variety of situations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640931532596576266/KilledByPolice_circumstances_v3.png # swat raids are racially biased SWAT team raids disproportionately target black neighborhoods: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/448552552125169676/unknown.png # drug arrests are racially biased Lopez 2016: in 2013, black people were just 1.1x more likely to report illicit drug use than white people, but black people are 2.5x more likely to get arrested for it: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/448544808173174794/unknown.png NSDUH 2013: 10.5% of black people reported using illicit drugs, which is just 1.1x higher than 9.5% of white people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/448666778244218880/unknown.png NAP 2014: in 2011, 1500 per 100k black people get arrested for drug crimes, which is 3.16x more often than 475 per 100k for white people; this overrepresentation is dramatically higher than 1980, when 650 per 100k black people get arrested for drug crimes, which is 2.6x more often than 250 per 100k for white people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/448666804861009920/p61.png # common response: "black people underreport drug use more than white people do"; this is partially correct but very insufficient to explain drug arrest gap Harrison and Hudghes 1997: among 13237 adults in the NLSY over four followups, the recanting rate (RR) for drug use was 7pp to 2pp higher for black people than for white people; this gap is not nearly high enough to explain the 2.5 times overrepresentation above: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/631659011741319178/unknown.png (33.6-31.4)/33.6 """Inaccurate reports of drug use do not necessarily result from intentional deception. For example, adolescents may not recognize the names of drugs as listed on an assessment instrument. Recognition may depend on whether street names, slang terms, and/or chemical names are included in the definitions and may change over time as respondents become more experienced.""""""[W]e measured the number of substances for which adolescent clients supplied one or more inconsistent reports across three assessments conducted at program intake and at the 6- and 12-month follow-up assessments.""" White et al 2014: among 454 black and 349 white men who have sex with men (usually homosexual) in Atlanta, white and black men were equally likely to use marijuana and cocaine (as detected by urine tests), but black men were less likely to report marijuana use and cocaine use; 64% of black and 91% of white marijuana users reported using; 54% of black and 84% of white cocaine users reported using; given that black people are 2.5x overrepresented in self-reported data, this would suggest the true overrepresentation is still 2.5*.64/.91=1.76x or 2.5*.54/.84=1.61x: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/631674499745710089/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024453600497389709/unknown.png """In analyses that adjusted for age, education, income, sexual orientation, and history of arrest, black MSM were less likely to report recent use of marijuana (P<0.001) and cocaine (P=0.02), but equally likely to screen positive for either drug. This discrepancy between selfreported and urine-detected drug use was explained by significantly lower sensitivity of self-report for black participants (P<0.001 for marijuana, P<0.05 for cocaine).""""""The model indicated a 41% lower adjusted prevalence of self-reported marijuana use among black participants. In the fully adjusted model of self-reported cocaine use, the interaction between race and age group persisted, with a similar pattern of less reported cocaine use among black participants <35 years.""""""The prevalence and correlates of urine-detected marijuana and cocaine use are shown in Table 4. Similar to self-reported marijuana use, urine-detected marijuana use was associated with educational attainment, annual income, and history of arrest. Urine-detected cocaine use was associated with age group, income, and history of arrest. In the fully adjusted models, black and white participants had equivalent levels of urine-detected marijuana (P = 0.78) and cocaine use (P = 0.84) (Table 6).""" Harris et al 2008: among 1463 adolescents in the Adolescent Treatment Models program, the 161 black adolescents inconsistently reported drugs from one session to the next at roughly half the rate of white adolescents: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/978038409832562708/unknown.png """Blacks on average reported inconsistently on less than half the number of substances as compared with Whites (incidence rate ratio = 0.41, 95% confidence interval = 0.31–0.53).""" #####c #####c ##### # # racial bias in economic social relations # #####o ##### # trends over time #####o # summary Many conservatives claim that "black people had it better under segregation", "before civil rights", "before LBJ", or "before the welfare state". The evidence for this is weak and the evidence against it is strong. # intergenerational mobility: upward trend Reeves and Rodrigue 2017: at each decline of income, black men have much less upward mobility than white men, but mobility is higher now than ever before: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982376932937191494/unknown.png Reeves and Rodrigue 2017: based on a counterfactual simulation where black men had the same income mobility as white men, the average income of black men would have been 35 percent of the average income of white men by 1900; we have not yet reached this benchmark: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982379757427654674/unknown.png # intergenerational mobility: in the long run since slavery Derenoncourt et al 2022: in 1860, the average Black person owned just 1/55th of the average White person; today, the average Black person owns just 1/6 of what the average White person owns: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985378957501280286/unknown.png Derenoncourt et al 2022: even if black & white people had had equal ability to build wealth, the white-black wealth ratio would be 3x today, because freedmen were so deeply poor: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985379292118679573/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985379318660202516/unknown.png Derenoncourt et al 2022: 1st: flow-based policies, which raise black income growth, saving, and capital gains rates, are likely to have a small effect unless they elevate black income/saving/gains over white rates; the authors estimate that even if capital gains, savings rates, and income growth were equal for white and black people, it would take until 2200 (!) for black income to equal white income -- at which point that white-black wealth ratio would still be 1.88x! https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985379537724526602/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985379722122907648/unknown.png Derenoncourt et al 2022: 2nd: Stock-based policies: Classic reparations. A one-time payment of $267k per person to each descendant of enslaved people would instantly reduce the white-black wealth ratio to 1.4x! But this fix would be very temporary. Black people have lower income, capital gains, and savings rates If unchanged, the wealth ratio would grow to >3x after 120y If ~halved, the ratio would grow to 2x after 240y If {capital gains and savings rates} were equal (but not income), the ratio would stabilize at ~1.1x: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985379834643505212/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985379955070365726/unknown.png # intergenerational mobility: explaining the recent flatline of mobility: society got less equal! Manduca 2018: from 1965 to 2015, the median black family's income rose from the 25th percentile to the 35th %ile; these relative gains were nearly exactly negated by overall increasing income inequality: incomes at the 35th %ile dropped from 70% to 50% of the mean: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/872287791793463336/E76F9JhXIAElsRL.png # literacy in the long run NCES NAAL 2007: according to the US Census HSUS, self-reported literacy rates for people over 14 years old were 98% for native white, 87% for foreign white, and 77% for black people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/888879089082073148/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988149255459995729/unknown.png literate literacy black african african-american # unemployment the unemployment rate of black people has always been about 2x that of white people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640931798376775683/ST_2016.png # single motherhood and extra-marital birth single motherhood has always been higher for black people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640931855100674078/ST_2016.png extramarital births have always been higher for black people: Johnson 2016: the upward mobility of black children born into the national bottom 50%, as compared to white children born into the national bottom 50%, has substantially increased since 1945: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/599887079228571648/unknown.png tau represents the percentile increase required to be classified as "upwardly mobile"; tau=0 means "higher percentile than parents", tau=0.2 means "20% higher than parents" bottom half of this https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-century-gap-low-economic-mobility-for-black-men-150-years-after-the-civil-war/ todo: #####c ##### # causes: failure of reconstruction #####o Hacker 2020: in 1860, an estimated 3,953,760 (~4 million) black people were enslaved in the US; by 1865, an estimated 9,797,728 (~10 million) black people had ever been enslaved in the USA, who worked a cumulative 410,304 hours of forced labor: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988262855298146314/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988263107803623444/unknown.png Census Bureau 1864: an additional 2297+2504+1651+917=7369 black slaves were held by white and Native American people in territory controlled by the Choctaw, Cherokee, Cree, and Chickasaw peoples: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988267919626629130/unknown.png Census Bureau 1864: Census results from 1860 show 3,953,760 enslaved black people and just 487,970 free black people; there were 8.1x as many black slaves as black freedmen, and just 11.0% of black people were free; and 26,957,471: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988264378417680425/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988279152291491910/unknown.png # black immigrants are a significant but small proportion of current black Americans Pew 2022: in 2022, 8 in 10 black people were 3rd generation or longer residents in America: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988573423942910052/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988573793268162650/unknown.png # promises made Clinton Fisk 1865, assistant commissioner of the Freedmen's Bureau, speaking at the August 1865 State Convention of Colored Men in Tennesse: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988587240533942362/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988587344846290974/unknown.png """I am your friend, sent by the Government to aid you; and, by the blessing of God, I will never shrink from discharging my duty. The passing away of slavery has opened a new era, and it becomes necessary that the Government should do something to aid you in passing from slavery to freedom, for the good of the white race as well as yours. And therefore, the Freedmen's Bureau was established[.] [...] They must not only have freedom but homes of their own, thirty or forty acres, with mules, cottages, and school houses, etc. That is the picture for the future. I shall move in it just as quickly as possible. I would like to settle 10,000 before the first of next January.""" # failure of immediate land reform Oubre 1976: brief summary of the failure of land reform: in March 1865, Congress instructed the Freedmen's Bureau to grant 40 acres of confiscated or abandoned land (usually from slavers) to freedmen; by April 1866, most of that land had been restored to its former owners or sold to Northern businessmen: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988328098980298802/unknown.png """In March 1865, Congress created the Bureau of Refugees, Freedmen and Abandoned Lands to assist freedmen in making the difficult transition from slavery to freedom. Congress instructed the Bureau to rent forty acres of confiscated or abandoned land to each freedman family. By April 1866, however, most of the confiscated and abandoned lands had been restored to former owners or sold to northern businessmen. Therefore, in order to make land available to the freedmen, Congress enacted the Southern Homestead Act in June 1866, restricting all remaining public lands in five southern states (approximately forty-six million acres) to entry for homestead only. To assure that freedmen and loyal whites would have first choice of the public lands the act restricted entry to these classes exclusively until January 1, 1867, and until June 1868, no entry could be made for more than forty acres of double minimum land, that is, land within six miles of a railroad or navigable stream, or eighty acres of minimum land. Moreover, the act provided that until June 1868 the homesteader would only pay a two dollar filing fee at the time of entry, and would not have to pay the five dollar registration fee until his patent was issued five years later.""" Engs 1979: Southern landowners regained almost all of the land they had claimed before the war; under pressure from Johnson and pro-capital Northern politicians, the Freedmen's Bureau was transformed from a protector of freedmen land rights to an enforcer of the plantation wage system: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988332234379513866/unknown.png """Throughout the South, freedmen were required to make labor contracts with their former owners, and local Bureau agents were charged to enforce the terms of these agreements. Black refugees from rural counties were returned to their home plantations despite proof that they would be subject to mistreatment. Rather than fostering black independence, the Bureau became an agency to assist Southern whites in perpetuating black subordination. Agents who resisted these perversions of the Bureau's purpose, like Wilder, or Saxton in South Carolina, were dismissed and replaced by officers more amenable to the president and his southern allies.""" # failure of obtaining back pay Oubre 1978: by 1900, in the Deep South, 19.1% of black farm-operators owned their farms; 58.9% of white farm-operators owned their farms: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988616246494912582/unknown.png # failure of homesteading acts Oubre 1978: by 1900, in the Deep South, 19.1% of black farm-operators owned their farms; 58.9% of white farm-operators owned their farms: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988332502944976967/unknown.png """In fact, throughout the entire South in 1900, 25.2 percent of the black farmers owned their own farms. The corresponding figure for whtie farm owners is 62.9 percent. When one considers that there were relatively few black land owners in 1865, this represents a consdierable increase in thirty-five years of freedom.""" Canaday Reback Stowe 2015: among homesteaders on the 1866 Southern Homestead Act, neither white or black homesteaders were more likely to succeed (model 3); about 40% of homesteaders succeeded in getting land rights after 5 years; white homesteaders were poorer than the white population, while black homesteaders were richer than the black population: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988325322497851392/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/988330489549045810/unknown.png "Louisiana is the only state for which unsuccessful homesteadentry records are available electronically" """Contemporary writers estimated a settler would need $600 to $1000 to relocate, register, sustain themselves and establish a farm (Deverell 1988).""" model 4 examines the local vs non-local question, which is not pertinent #####c ##### # causes: racial discrimination #####o # hiring Pager 2009: black people with identical qualifications and virtually identical in-person interviews are much less likely to get called back for a job opening: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/451572630739484672/unknown.png Quillian 2017: racial hiring discrimination in employment for black and Hispanic people has remained roughly the same since the 1990's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/680168318044209152/unknown.png # marriage black women have a harder time marrying due to the mass incarceration and homicide of black men: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640931725912047616/mmpif2.png #####c ##### # causes: ethnic segregation #####o # causal evidence: desegregation court-mandated desegregation increases black intergenerational mobility up to 25% without decreasing white mobility: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/599887514165313547/unknown.png # correlational evidence: against positive enclave effects Xie and Gough 2011: among 814 Asian respondents to the 2003 New Immigrant Survey, residential enclaves (have same ethnicity) correlated with no significant effect on wages but workplace enclaves (speak same language) correlated with an 18% decrease of wages: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982377774985662585/unknown.png """We observe that the enclave variable is statistically significant in explaining earnings under only one operationalization—the workplace measure—and this estimate points in a direction that contradicts the enclave thesis, thus refuting Hypothesis 1. Instead of being positive, the estimate is negative: –0.176. This estimate indicates that Asian immigrants working in settings where non-English languages are spoken earn about 18% less, on average, than other Asian workers. As an example, for the average male Chinese worker, this negative effect translates into a $3.49/hour penalty on earnings.9""" Xie and Gough 2011: among 941 Hispanic respondents to the 2003 New Immigrant Survey, residential enclaves (have same ethnicity) correlated with no significant effect on wages but workplace enclaves (speak same language) correlated with an 11% decrease of wages: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982377876160647168/unknown.png #####c ##### # causes: the legacy of slavery ##### # the great migration spurred white backlash, which now hurts black men Derenoncourt 2021: instrumental variable: higher-than-expected black movement to a Northern commuting zone predicts lower upward mobility for black men born from 1978-1983; this does not result from selection effects or deindustrialization, but may result from observably higher white flight, segregation, resultant crime, and policing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985385045185404988/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985385286278189127/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985385308080181278/unknown.png """What is more likely is that a restructur- ing of economic activity within Great Migration CZs left Black families in the urban core without adequate opportunities while white families potentially followed jobs by moving to growing suburban areas, a finding in line with the historical and sociological literature on this topic.""" #####c ##### # not causes #####o # conspicious consumption (consumerism, jewelry, bling) black and Hispanic people spend more on conspicious consumption than income- and demographic-comparable white people (by 26% and 23% more), but these differences disappear when controlling for median income of a person's race within their state: this suggests that conspicious consumption functions in all races as an ingroup signalling mechanism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/728661064656355399/unknown.png """The results are shown in Table VIII. Column (1) displays the results from row (6) of Table II in which we do not control for features of reference group income distribution. Without reference group income controls, observationally equivalent Black and Hispanic maleheaded households consume 26 and 23 percent more on visible goods, respectively, than do Whites.""""""In the third column we add, for each individual, the average income of their race/state reference group and exclude the state fixed effects. This regression shows dramatically that our control for reference group income explains nearly the entire gap in spending across races. Both the Black and Hispanic point estimates are quantitatively tiny and statistically indistinguishable from zero.""" #####c ##### # what about asian people? ##### # immigrant benefit TODO Abramitzky et al 2021: as a group, children of immigrants achieve more upward mobility than the children of U.S.-born fathers; that the mobility advantage of the children of immigrants is just as strong today as it was in the past. What’s more, some of the immigrant groups that politicians accused long ago of having little to contribute to the economy—the Irish, Italians, and Portuguese—actually achieved the highest rates of upward mobility: # not all asian people Asian-American economic success is very mixed by ethnicity: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640932588642631700/FT_17.png # recent immigrants 73% of Asian adults in the US are immigrants (were born in another country), so historical inequities affected them much less: The modern immigration wave from Asia has accounted for one-quarter of all immigrants who have arrived in the U.S. since 1965. Today 59% of the U.S. Asian population was born in another country. That share rises to 73% among adult Asians. # formal comparison of black and asian endowments: no asian advantage beyond starting endowments Bogan and Darity 2008: todo reread axxx see below: todo: #####c #####c ##### # # other areas with racial bias # #####o ##### # racial disparities in elections #####o # racial discrimination in voting Chen 2019: Racial Disparities in Voting Wait Times: Evidence from Smartphone Data: """Relative to entirely-white neighborhoods, residents of entirely-black neighborhoods waited 29% longer to vote and were 74% more likely to spend more than 30 minutes at their polling place. This disparity holds whe>n comparing predominantly white and black polling places within the same states and counties, and survives numerous robustness and placebo tests.""" #####c #####c ##### # # health outcomes of racial bias # #####o ##### # racial discrimination worsens environmental determinants of health [environmental racism] #####o # air pollution exposure by race Kioumourtzoglou et al 2016: Bell and Ebisu 2012: black, Hispanic, Asian, and socioeconomically marginalized people have significantly more exposure to pollutants: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982353197370843176/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982354714639360011/unknown.png # air pollution mortality Di et al 2017: black people had significantly (1.2x) higher risk of death from marginal particulate matter than the overall population; NatAm, Hispanic, and Asian people had significantly lower (~0.97x) risk of death from marginal ozone than the overall population: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982339150537719908/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982340049511280640/unknown.png Di et al 2017: the above results in black people dying at three times higher rates from particulate matter than the overall population: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982434566063128576/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982435236136779777/unknown.png Zeger et al 2008: among recipients of Medicare in urban centers, a 10-microgram per cubic meter increase long-term exposure to particulate matter significantly increased the mortality rate by 6.8% in the East and 13.2% in the Center: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982349739762778122/unknown.png # toxic waste site exposure Bullard et al 2007: black people, Hispanic people, and Asian people are much more likely (roughly 2x) to live near toxic waste sites than are white people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982333797242658856/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982333827894624266/unknown.png Bullard et al 2007: race shows a higher correlation (higher ratios) than socioeconomic conditions with living in a toxic waste site host neighborhood, suggesting that racial discrimination/segregation plays a larger role in waste site location than economic discrimination/segregation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982334727778369546/unknown.png # industrial facility exposure Starbuck and White 2016: people of color are 1.7x more likely than white people to live within one mile of a Risk Management Program (RMP) industrial facility; this represents 10% of people of color and 6% of white people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982545121037910016/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982545221432774656/unknown.png """There are over 12,500 hazardous chemical facilities in the U.S. reporting to the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Risk Management Program (RMP). These facilities use or store high enough quantities of extremely dangerous chemicals that they must submit a risk plan for responding to chemical disasters. Some facilities are so dangerous that a major incident could impact communities several miles away.20 However, those living near chemical facilities face the greatest dangers. Nearly 23 million U.S. residents – 7.5 percent of the total population – live within one mile of an RMP facility. These fenceline communities would be hardest hit during a chemical catastrophe and would have the least amount of time to escape.""" # causes of worse environmental health Nardone et al 2020: historically redlined areas saw significantly higher emergency room visits for asthma, which suggests that redlined areas have worse air pollution or other environmental determinants of respiratory health: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982331232950030367/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982331377452216340/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982331449359347813/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982331781716008990/unknown.png Bravo et al 2016: higher current segregation among racial minority groups ("Racial Isolation") is significantly associated with higher exposure to particulate matter, but not ozone, especially for non-Hispanic black people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982345746365972540/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982346395883290665/unknown.png racial isolation (RI), a measure of the extent to which minority racial/ethnic group members are exposed to only one another # reported racial discrimination is not just neighborhood effects Gee 2008: among 1503 Chinese people in Los Angeles, reported racial discrimination correlated signifcantly with worse reported health, even after controlling for several neighborhood and individual variables, including mortgage discrimination against Asian people (modern redlining): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982369200909742150/unknown.png #####c ##### # experienced racial discrimination worsens health behaviors #####o # racial discrimination predicts greater cigarette smoking Parker et al 2016: experienced racism positively correlates with cigarette smoking among black people as a coping behavior: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/496853044210827264/33826158.png After adjusting for having an emotional response to discrimination, health care and workplace discrimination, age, education, household income, and being married, males who had a physical response to discrimination (e.g., upset stomach or headache) had higher odds of cigarette use (odds ratio (OR): 1.95, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-3.30) than men who did not have a physical response to discrimination. #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # tolerance: sex, sexuality, and gender [axis three] # # #####o ##### # # general lgbtq # #####o ##### # fun fact (VERY solid science) (strongest evidence) #####o homosexual men (gays) have slightly larger cocks/dicks/penises than straights: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/669960451865444401/unknown.png it's not actually significant and almost certainly results from sample bias but it is very funny #####c ##### # stigma and mortality among queer people #####o # more stigma, more mortality Hatzenbuehler et al 2020: among people with a same-sex partner in the last year (very likely to be gay), higher reported structural stigma was associated with 1.95x higher risk of all-cause mortality, after controlling for age, race, gender, income, and education: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/989006342222151690/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/989006401911283752/unknown.png # hate crimes fell after hate crime laws and nondiscrimination laws were enacted Levy and Levy 2017: after states enacted hate crime laws and employer non-discrimination laws that protected queer people, reported anti-queer hate crimes fell significantly (includes a number of controls and some consideration of the reporting-bias issue): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/989003715786711060/unknown.png """Over all, our findings thus far are generally supportive of H2. We predict that pro-equality policies will reduce reported incidence of hate crimes based on sexual orientation, and this seems to be the case with hate crime and employment nondiscrimination laws including sexual orientation. Both policies Granger cause reductions in reported hate crimes, indicative of potential positive externalities. In contrast, we reject H1 e at least in its causal form. Constitutional bans are positively correlated with reported hate crimes, but this relationship is explained by the many controls we include in our model.""" #####c ##### # conversion therapy is ineffective #####o # terminology SOCE = sexual orientation change efforts # anecdotes Anne Paulk is the most famous example of an ex-lesbian; as of 2020, she still supports conversion therapy because of her faith: """The Bible has made clear that all humans are made in the image of God — male and female. It does not at all specify that homosexual identity is part of that blessed image.""" her husband, John Paulk, who founded the ex-gay "Love Won Out" ministry simularly identified as ex-gay; in 2013, he divorced her, returned to homosexuality, and disavowed the ex-gay movement: """I was in denial. It wasn’t in fact true, any of it. Worse than being wrong, it was harmful to many people—and caused me years of pain in my own life. Which is why I have this to say to the Rick Perrys of the world: You don’t understand this issue. At all.""" # consensus: apa report APA report summary on changing sexual behavior: no credible evidence that SOCE durably changes a large portion of people's sexual behavior: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/924089128193232906/unknown.png """The limited number of rigorous early studies and complete lack of rigorous recent prospective research on SOCE limits claims for the efficacy and safety of SOCE. Within the early group of studies, there are a small number of rigorous studies of SOCE, and those focus on the use of aversive treatments. These studies show that enduring change to an individual’s sexual orientation is uncommon and that a very small minority of people in these studies showed any credible evidence of reduced same-sex sexual attraction, though some show lessened physiological arousal to all sexual stimuli.""" APA report: only one study, Tanner 1974, compared a treated experimental group against a untreated control group; said study (n=16) found no change in same-sex behavior over the next 8 weeks: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/924090177394192414/unknown.png """Only one of the experiments that we identified compared treatment outcomes against the outcomes for an untreated control group. Tanner (1974) examined change in sexual arousal among 8 men receiving electric shock therapy. Tanner found that physiological arousal to male stimuli in the laboratory had declined at the 8-week follow-up, when scores among the 8 men in the treatment were compared with those of the 8 men in a control group. Changes were not achieved for all of the men, and there were no differences between the experimental and control groups in the frequency of same-sex sexual behavior.""" APA report: meta-study found that if SOCE if effective, it's likely because it reduces overall sex drive: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/924092033189179443/unknown.png APA report: SOCE lab experiments are often not replicable in SOCE real-world experiments: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/924091342613778462/unknown.png McConaghy 1976: todo xxx: # efficacy: Spitzer 2001 Spitzer 2001 study: ^story of Spitzer's involvement in validating conversion therapy: """This spring, I visited Spitzer at his home in Princeton. He ambled toward the door in a walker. Frail but sharp-witted, Spitzer suffers from Parkinson's disease. "It's a bummer," he said. I told Spitzer that Nicolosi had asked me to participate in the 2001 study and recount my success in therapy, but that I never called him. "I actually had great difficulty finding participants," Spitzer said. "In all the years of doing ex-gay therapy, you'd think Nicolosi would have been able to provide more success stories. He only sent me nine patients.""" """Spitzer was drawn to the topic of ex-gay therapy because it was controversial-"I was always attracted to controversy"-but was troubled by how the study was received. He did not want to suggest that gay people should pursue ex-gay therapy. His goal was to determine whether the counterfactual-the claim that no one had ever changed his or her sexual orientation through therapy-was true.""" """I asked about the criticisms leveled at him. "In retrospect, I have to admit I think the critiques are largely correct," he said. "The findings can be considered evidence for what those who have undergone ex-gay therapy say about it, but nothing more." He said he spoke with the editor of the Archives of Sexual Behavior about writing a retraction, but the editor declined.""" ^in 2013, Spitzer recanted the findings of his study: """The Fatal Flaw in the Study: There Was No Way to Judge the Credibility of Subject Reports of Change in Sexual Orientation[.] I offered several (unconvincing) reasons why it was reasonable to assume that the participants' reports of change were credible and not self-deception or outright lying. But the simple fact is that there was no way to determine if the participants' accounts of change were valid.""" # efficacy: Byrd 2002 metastudy Byrd (reparative therapy practitioner) 2002 meta-study argues that sexual reorientation therapy is effective: ^ apa 2009 response: """A meta-analytic review of 14 research articles (Byrd & Nicolosi, 2002) is not discussed in this report. The review suffers from significant methodological shortcomings and deviations from recommended meta-analytic practice (see, e.g., Durlak, Meerson, & Ewell Foster, 2003; Lipsey & Wilson, 2001) that preclude reliable conclusions being drawn from it. However, studies that were included in the meta-analysis and were published in refereed journals between 1960 and the present are included and described in the current review.""" # outcomes: psychological harms trans individuals who recall exposure in trans conversion therapy report significantly higher rates of suicidality, pyschological distress, and illicit drug use: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/785224978484166676/unknown.png #####c ##### # comorbidity of queer types (non-heterosexuality correlates with gender nonconformity) #####o Riger et al 2016: more-homosexual women reported significantly higher childhood masculinity and adulthood masculinity (such that full-lesbians rated themselves as more masculine than feminine) and were rated by observers as more masculine (such that full-lesbians were rated as more masculine than feminine): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/743857882239467640/unknown.png N1 = 186, N2 = 345, N3 = 273, Ntotal = 804 #####c #####c ##### # # transgender: general information # #####o ##### # demography of self-identified transgender people #####o # percent of population Herman et al 2022: 0.52% of US adults identify as transgender, including 1.43% of those 13-17 and 0.32% of those over 65: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/986958093827059712/unknown.png Herman et al 2018: .66% of Americans 18-24 identify as transgender: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/517480851777257512/unknown.png Baker 2019: 0.55% of Americans in the BRFSS identified as transgender; they were more likely to report poor mental and physical health: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987208930604253204/unknown.png about 0.4% of Americans identify as transgender: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640223214525612055/AJPH.png # by gender: surveys -- roughly equal female:male USTS 2015: trans men (FtM), trans women (MtF), and nonbinary respondents who identified as trans were equally common in the 2015 USTS: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/517482288372514846/unknown.png # by gender: legal gender -- roughly equal female:male among every individual in Sweden with a gender incongruence diagnosis from 2005-2015, 47.9% were legally male (FtM) and 52.1% female (MtF): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/744366403783753798/unknown.png # by gender: referalls -- roughly 4x female:male Tavistock 2019: among gender identity referrals in the UK, patients assigned female at birth (FtM) were about 1-3x more common than male at birth (MtF): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/746836779331747881/unknown.png Kaltiala 2019: among gender identity referrals in four countries, patients assigned female at birth (FtM) were more common: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/747879580148170832/unknown.png """An increase in female:male ratio among those referred to the child and adolescent GIDSs was seen across the countries from 2010 to 2017. Finland was distinguished with a higher female:male ratio among the gender-referred minors than in the other countries studied (Figure 3). Among children there seemed to be relatively more boys in Finland (female:male ratio 0.3) and the UK (0.6), and an even sex distribution was seen in Denmark (1.1), Norway (1.0) and Sweden (1.0), but none of the pairwise differences was statistically significant. Among adolescents, there was a preponderance of females with female:male ratios of 4.1 in Denmark, 7.1 in Finland, 1.7 in Norway, 3.2 in Sweden and 2.5 in the UK (pairwise differences between countries were statistically significant at level p < .001 except Sweden vs. UK and Denmark vs. Sweden at level p < .05).""" # by age at identification USTS 2015: 60% of adult transgender people "began to feel gender was different from the one on their original birth certificate" by age 10, and 81% by age 15: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1123702939177996380/FzvA415WwAA14KK.png years old # by sexuality: very queer 41% of crossdressers, 23% of trans men, 19% of trans women, and 2% of non-bonary people described themselves as "straight" or "heterosexual": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/902579655364734986/unknown.png # pronouns the vast majority of trans people request he/she/they pronouns: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/517483747814277149/unknown.png # military status trans people are 1.9x more likely to have military service than the general populace: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/638779877620711434/unknown.png # homelessness USTS 2015: 30% of transgender people experienced homelessness at one point in their life; 12% of transgender people experienced homelessness in the past year due to their gender identity: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974179460947517480/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974179574818684928/unknown.png CAP 2018: 20% to 40% of the homeless youth population (either with an adult or without) are LGBT: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974180097412182046/unknown.png #####c ##### # popular acceptance of transgender people #####o # proportion of adults who know trans people of US adults willing to talk about sexual topics, 2% know a trans person in the family, 17% know a trans person outside the family, 50% don't know a trans person personally: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/699268523473502228/unknown.png # gender is sex at birth Pew June 2021: 56% say gender is determined by sex at birth; 41% say gender can be different than sex at birth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/914701990469206056/ft_2021.png # pronouns Pew June 2021: 48% say uncomfortable using gender-neutral pronouns; 50% say comfortable: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/914701977466843217/ft_2021.png Ipsos Jan 2018: # polling on mental illness 2017: of US adults willing to talk about sexual topics, 39% say trans is a choice (43% of men, 36% of women), 9% say trans is a mental illness (11% of men, 6% of women): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/699271906125152337/unknown.png belief by country on whether transgender is natural and on whether transgender is a mental illness: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/744375753516253345/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/744375761590550578/unknown.png representative samples: `Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland,Serbia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United States` nonrepresentative samples: `Brazil, China, Ecuador,India, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Turkey` # polling on cultural acceptance / sin belief by country on whether transgender is violating their culture or is a sin: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/744375753516253345/unknown.png representative samples: `Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland,Serbia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United States` nonrepresentative samples: `Brazil, China, Ecuador,India, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Turkey` # polling on protections for trans people belief by country on increased protections for transgender people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/744377125565628497/unknown.png representative samples: `Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland,Serbia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United States` nonrepresentative samples: `Brazil, China, Ecuador,India, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Turkey` belief by country on whether trans people should be able to serve in the military: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/744377463886577745/unknown.png representative samples: `Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland,Serbia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United States` nonrepresentative samples: `Brazil, China, Ecuador,India, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Turkey` # bathrooms belief by country on whether trans people should be able to use their identified-with sex's bathroom:: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/744377740551258252/unknown.png representative samples: `Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland,Serbia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United States` nonrepresentative samples: `Brazil, China, Ecuador,India, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Turkey` # adoption belief by country on whether trans people should be able to adopt: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/744390981234982922/unknown.png representative samples: `Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland,Serbia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United States` nonrepresentative samples: `Brazil, China, Ecuador,India, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Turkey` # surgery Ipsos Jan 2018: 18% of Americans and 22% of medium/high-income country residents disagree that trans people should be allowed to have gender reassignment surgery; 71% of Americans and 66% of medium/high-income country residents agree: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/914695119737880606/unknown.png # children Ipsos Jan 2018: 41% of Americans and 38% of medium/high-income country residents worry about exposing children to trans people; 51% of Americans and 51% of medium/high-income country residents agree: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/914696545054638120/unknown.png #####c ##### # sexual and romantic attraction to transgender people #####o # proportion dating a trans person of US adults willing to talk about sexual topics, 4% have dated a trans person (5% of men, 2% of women), 3% have fucked a trans person in the last 12 months (5% of men, 3% of women): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/699270388017791046/unknown.png # proportion willing to date a trans person of US adults willing to talk about sexual topics who have not dated a trans person in the last year, 17% are open to dating a trans man (14% of men, 21% of women), 16% are open to dating a trans woman (17% of men, 16% of women), and 18% are open to dating a nonbinary (16% of men, 19% of women): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/699270468980703242/unknown.png 96.7% of straight men won't date trans people, 98.2% of straight women, 88.5% of gay men, 71.2% of gay women, and 48.3% of bisexual-queer-nonbinary people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/699274077180788887/unknown.png # self-reported rating of passing / clocking / attractiveness most trans people report that people could not usually tell that they were trans: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/517484183879417906/unknown.png # age of trans feelings most trans people felt that their gender was "wrong" before 20: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/517483097630048279/unknown.png # transition status: usa: overall most trans people have transitioned, but more trans men (FtM) than trans women (MtF): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/517483615173476370/unknown.png # transition status: usa: afab 35% of trans men do not desire phalloplasty: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/816494908730245130/unknown.png 79% of AFAB nonbinary do not want a phalloplasty:: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/816494947293200394/unknown.png # transition status: usa: amab 12% of trans women do not desire vaginoplasty: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/816495012938121246/unknown.png 59% of AMAB nonbinary do not want a vaginoplasty: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/816503412283277322/unknown.png # transition status: sweden: hrt vs srs Branstrom et al 2020, using data on every individual in Sweden from 2005-2015, found that (among those with a gender incongruence diagnosis) 38.0% had had gender-confirming surgery and 70.4% were on cross-sex hormones: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/744368256961216648/unknown.png # impacts of perceived gender on perceived attractiveness males rated photos of people that were arbitrarily labelled {non-binary people and cis men/women} more feminine than {trans men and trans women}; females rated these categories increasingly feminine: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/699276093684973628/unknown.png males rated photos of people that were arbitrarily labelled non-binary and transgender people as substantially less attractive; women rated them as slightly less attractive: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/699276071585185812/unknown.png in contrast, both males and females were only slightly less likely to want people in photos randomly labelled as non-cisgender to be their friend: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/699276080888021112/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # transgender: biological causes for gender nonconformity # #####o ##### # consensus: gender nonconformity is not a mental illness #####o # consensus: not mental illness and should treat w/ affirming therapy American Psychological Association's 2015 guidelines for trans and gender nonconforming people: [1] gender identity is distinct from sex at birth; [2] gender-affirming care improves transgender people's life outcomes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/994283879861071924/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/994283955736019044/unknown.png """Given the strong evidence for the positive influence of affirmative care, psychologists are encouraged to facilitate access to and provide trans-affirmative care to TGNC people. Whether through the provision of assessment and psychotherapy, or through assisting clients to access hormone therapy or surgery, psychologists may play a critical role in empowering and validating TGNC adults’ and adolescents’ experiences and increasing TGNC people’s positive life outcomes.""" American Psychiatric Association's 2012 report (Byne et al 2012) on gender identity disorder: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1045556957521649694/image.png """The Task Force concludes that the current credible literature is adequate for the development of consensus based treatment recommendations for all subgroups reviewed.""" American Academy of Pediatrics 2018 guidelines (Rafferty et al 2018): gender-affirming care models are the best treatment for transgender and gender non-conforming youth; "transgender identities and diverse gender expressions do not constitute a mental disorder": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985055199502667796/unknown.png """In a gender-affirmative care model (GACM), pediatric providers offer developmentally appropriate care that is oriented toward understanding and appreciating the youth’s gender experience. A strong, nonjudgmental partnership with youth and their families can facilitate exploration of complicated emotions and gender-diverse expressions while allowing questions and concerns to be raised in a supportive environment. In a GACM, the following messages are conveyed: • transgender identities and diverse gender expressions do not constitute a mental disorder; • variations in gender identity and expression are normal aspects of human diversity, and binary definitions of gender do not always reflect emerging gender identities; • gender identity evolves as an interplay of biology, development, socialization, and culture; and • if a mental health issue exists, it most often stems from stigma and negative experiences rather than being intrinsic to the child.""" World Health Organization's 2019 classification in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual Version 5 (DSM-5): "gender incongruence" is not a mental disorder: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1045555964797009930/image.png # debunk: american college of pediatricians at maximum, the American College of Pediatricians has 500 members-- equal to 500/(118000+37800+500) = 0.32% of the APA and APA's members: the American Psychological Association has 118000 (240x more) members: the American Psychiatric Association has 37800 (75x more) members: #####c ##### # biological causes: brain structure, brain function #####o # summary The evidence on whether trans brains align more closely with the identified-as sex or the natal sex is mixed. Most evidence suggests trans brains lean toward their identified-as sex; however, conflicting evidence might suggest that trans brains are "in the middle". # summary of the literature Saraswat 2015: literature review: studies on gray matter, white matter, twins, and prenatal exposure all suggest -- albeit, with limited sample sizes and methods -- that transgender identity, like homosexuality, has a biological origin: """Although the mechanisms remain to be determined, there is strong support in the literature for a biologic basis of gender identity.""""""Current data suggest a biologic etiology for transgender identity. Studies of DSD patients and neuroanatomical studies provide the strongest evidence for the organic basis of transgender identity. Because the sample sizes of most studies on this subject were small, the conclusions must be interpreted with caution. Further research is required to assign specific biologic mechanisms for gender identity.""" # brain structure: literature review of studies before hormones Nguyen 2018: trans brain structure is more often closer to identified sex than natal sex: """Presently, findings are conflicting about whether the neuroanatomy of transgender individuals prior to GAHT resembles that of their biological sex or their gender identity, but most crosssectional neuroimaging research indicates that brain morphology and activation patterns at rest and during cognitive performance are more congruent with gender identity than natal sex in untreated MTFs and FTMs.""" # brain structure: literature review of all studies Smith 2015: literature review: trans people have brain structures similarities to their gender identity: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639655671398400001/1-s2.png out of 14 studies of brain structure (total N=307, N MtF=195, N FtM=112) with a total of 23 results: 6 results that trans people had brain structure similarities to their birth sex, 12 results that trans people had brain structure similarities to their gender identity, and 5 results that unclear results (either no significant sex differences or no significant differences between trans and cis participants, or both). TLDR: **12 of 18 (66%) results** with clear results **suggest trans people have brain structures with similarities to their current gender identity.** # brain function: literature review of studies before hormones Nguyen 2018: trans brain structure is more often closer to identified sex than natal sex: """In most cases, investigators have focused on verbal and spatial tasks which display a clear sex bias. Verbal tasks show a female sex bias, while spatial tasks show a male sex bias. Multiple studies conclude that MTFs perform significantly better on female-favoring verbal tests compared to cisgender male controls, whereas FTMs perform significantly worse than cisgender female controls on verbal tests.""" # brain structure and function: conflicting evidence, non-binary possibility Nguyen 2018: the fact that perhaps 1/4th of evidence suggests trans brains are closer to natal sex suggests that the overall effect may be in the middle: """Nevertheless, approximately one-quarter of the literature has presented conflicting data. [....] While the majority of the literature indicates that brain structure and function are more in line with gender identity than natal sex, even in trans individuals who have not undergone GAHT, the equivocal nature of some findings suggests that perhaps we ought to consider a continuum of gender identity where individuals may not fit neatly into binary characterizations.""" #####c #####o # list of genetic and natal intersex conditions #####o # biological sex: graph biological sex is not just male and female: the spectrum between male and female contains numerous biological intersex conditions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640933029191090186/051_sad0917MontA3p-01.png # genetics: rare sex chromosome setups lower bound sum: 1/2000+1/2000+1/2000+1/80000+1/100000+1/200000 = 0.15275% = 1 in 654 * 1 in 2000: Klinefelter (XXY): * 1 in 2000: XYY Syndrome: * 1 in 2000: XXX Syndrome: * 1 in 80000: XXYY * 1 in 100000: XXXY * too rare to count: XXXX Syndrome: * 1 in 200000: XXXXY Syndrome: * too rare to count: XXXXX Syndrome: # genetics: rare sex hormone setups * * * * * * * * # genetics: non-normal congenital setups * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * #####c ##### # autogynephilia #####o # autogynephilia in cis women using autogynephilia scale for women Moser 2009: using the same methods Blanchard uses, one would be forced to conclude that 93% of cisgender women are AGP: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/939760286787858472/unknown.png """By the common definition of ever having erotic arousal to the thought or image of oneself as a woman, 93% of the respondents would be classified as autogynephilic. Using a more rigorous definition of “frequent” arousal to multiple items, 28% would be classified as autogynephilic.""" """A convenience sample of female professional employees of an urban hospital was obtained. On two successive days in June, 2005, the questionnaire was distributed by the author, female staff members were approached in either the nurse's station or staff lounge on several different floors during either day or evening shifts (weekdays).""" ^ Moser 2009: autogynephilia scale for women: """Blanchard subdivided MtF transsexuals by sexual orientation into four groups—androphilic, gynephilic, bisexual, and asexual. He found that a majority of the gynephilic (87.5%, n = 16), asexual (75%, n = 12) and bisexual (65.7%, n = 35) groups reported having experienced cross-gender arousal in response to wearing women’s clothing on at least one occasion in their lives, while only 15% (n = 100) of the androphilic group responded similarly (Blanchard, 1985).""" # blanchard core autogynephilia scale Wyndzen 2003: list of Blanchard's core autogynephilia questions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/991142932025462814/unknown.png # replication of blanchard's core autogynephilia scale Bailey and Hsu 2022: this study narrowly replicates Blanchard's findings using Blanchard's scale, but in a larger and more diverse set of samples of "autogynephilic natal men" (cross-dressers, trans women, men erotically interested in thinking of themselves as women), other natal men, and natal women: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/991143758093635604/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/991144713161818222/unknown.png """We compared four samples of autogynephilic natal males (N=1549), four samples of non-autogynephilic natal males (N=1339), and two samples of natal females (N=500), using Blanchard’s original measure: the Core Autogynephilia Scale.""" # critique of blanchard's causal claim Serano 2020: the causal link in Blanchard's evidence is backwards: """Blanchard’s studies also showed that many (if not most) ‘non-classical’ trans women report experiencing gender dysphoria or a desire to be female before they ever experienced FEFs, therefore FEFs could not possibly be causative of gender dysphoria[.]""" """Furthermore, most ‘nonclassical’ trans women either never experience FEFs, or experience FEFs only after they have experienced gender dysphoria, thus ruling out the possibly that FEFs caused them to become transgender (Serano, 2010).""" Serano 2010: in Blanchard 1985, 88% of gynephilic, 75% of asexual, 66% of bisexual, and 15% of androphilic trans women reported ever experiencing arousal in response to wearing women's clothing at least once in their lifetime: """No hard evidence has been forwarded to establish or support this proposed causal relationship. In fact, in the original papers in which Blanchard first developed and tested his theory of autogynephilia (Blanchard, 1989a, 1989b, 1991, 1992), there is no exploration or even discussion of the possibility that cross-gender arousal may be an effect of gender dysphoria (rather than its cause) or that both traits might simply correlate in nonandrophilic MtF individuals for some other reason.""" Serano 2010: many trans women report declining cross-gender arousal over time, especially after social or medical transition, suggesting against the idea that autogynephilia is a true paraphilia, that it causes transgender identity, and toward the idea that it begins as a taboo act and becomes routine: """Second, the presumption of causality is challenged by the fact that many MtF spectrum people who experience cross-gender arousal find that it is merely a passing phase rather than central to their transgender experience. For instance, transsexual women typically experience a sharp decrease in cross-gender arousal after transition (Lawrence, 2005). While one could argue that this reduction might simply be a by-product of having lower androgen levels, some transsexuals experience this reduction in cross-gender arousal prior to hormone therapy and orchiectomy (Serano, 2007). Further, many MtF crossdressers who have not taken steps toward physical transition also experience a decrease in cross-gender arousal over time (Buhrich & Beaumont, 1981; Buhrich & McConaghy, 1977a, 1977b; Doorn, Poortinga, & Verschoor, 1994; Ovesey & Person, 1976). While early explorations of feminine clothing and thoughts of female embodiment may be highly arousing (perhaps related to the sexual symbolism associated with femaleness and femininity in our culture), this sexual charge wanes for many MtF cross-dressers and pretransition transsexuals as they begin to interact socially in the feminine role, to develop a conscious female identity, and/or to view their transgender inclinations as authentic and nothing to be ashamed of (Doorn et al., 1994; Serano, 2007).""" Serano 2010: female/feminine embodiment fantasies may be coping mechanisms for trans women in the "wrong" body: """It makes sense that pretransition transsexuals (whose gender identity is discordant with their physical sex) might imagine themselves inhabiting the “right” body in their sexual fantasies and during their sexual experiences with other people. Indeed, critics of autogynephilia theory have argued that such sex embodiment fantasies appear to be an obvious coping mechanism for pretransition transsexuals (e.g., Barnes, 2001; Gooren, 2006; Serano, 2007). This coping mechanism explanation would also help to account for the sharp decrease in such fantasies that occurs in transsexual women after transition (Lawrence, 2005).""" # critique of measurement of autogynephilia Serano 2020: autogynephilia should be reconsidered as female/feminine embodiment fantasies (FEFs) in which one fantasizes about having the body of a female: """Second, the notion that FEFs have the potential to cause transsexuality is specious and not supported by the evidence (Serano, 2010, 2020). After all, almost a third of Lehmiller’s subjects experienced crosssex/gender sexual fantasies (Lehmiller, 2018, p. 66), yet the vast majority of these people will never develop gender dysphoria or desire to transition. Furthermore, most ‘nonclassical’ trans women either never experience FEFs, or experience FEFs only after they have experienced gender dysphoria, thus ruling out the possibly that FEFs caused them to become transgender (Serano, 2010).""" Serano 2020: autogynephilia has often been applied without reference to the person's sexuality, which is at odds with the claimed causal mechanism of self-femme-attraction: """A longstanding critique of Blanchard’s theory had been that his subtypes were not empirically derived, but rather stemmed from his initial grouping of individuals based on their sexual orientation, thus ‘begging the question’ that trans women fall into subtypes based on sexual orientation. In contrast to this approach, Veale (2014) performed taxometric analyses on her subjects’ responses to questions regarding sexual orientation, FEFs, and other aspects of sexuality, and found that the results were dimensional rather than categorical (i.e. trans women fell along a spectrum rather than into distinct subtypes). In an earlier study using the same dataset, Veale et al. (2008) found that when trans women were grouped according to their experiences with FEFs, they did not differ significantly on measures of sexual orientation.""" """Veale et al. (2008) also found that cisgender women frequently report FEFs, with 52% experiencing them at levels comparable to Blanchard’s ‘autogynephilic’ group (see also Moser, 2010).""" # prevalence of embodiment fantasies among the general public Lehmiller 2018: lifetime androphilia is not rare: 11% of women reported ever fantasizing about becoming a man, 20% reported reported ever fantasizing about dressing up as men: """However, if the results of my fantasy survey are any indication, autoandrophilia most definitely is real, and it’s probably more common than Blanchard thinks. Indeed, I found that 11 percent of the women I surveyed reported sexual fantasies about becoming men and that 20 percent had fantasized about dressing up as men (although I should clarify that just 2–3 percent said they fantasized about these things often, meaning autoandrophilia rarely becomes women’s preferred fantasy content).""" Lehmiller 2018: 1/4 of men and women reported fantaizing about cross-dressing and 1/3 of men and women fantasized about trading bodies with someone of the other sex: """When looking at my participants’ favorite fantasies of all time, gender-bending was relatively low on the list; however, when I asked whether people had ever fantasized about it, it turned out that a surprisingly large number had. For instance, about one-quarter of men and women had fantasized about cross-dressing, and nearly a third had fantasized about trading bodies with someone of the other sex. In addition, about one in four men and one in six women had fantasized about sex with a cross-dresser, and even more (about one in three men and one in four women) had fantasized about sex with a transsexual partner. My findings revealed that virtually all gender-bending fantasies were more common among men than women, for reasons we’ll explore in the next chapter.""" """As the latter example illustrates, there’s sometimes an element of dominance-submission and/or humiliation involved in crossdressing fantasies; however, in cases like this, it is almost exclusively men who want to be “feminized” by a dominant female partner—I didn’t read a single fantasy about a woman who wanted to be masculinized by a male partner. Thus, at least for men, fantasies about cross-dressing may sometimes be viewed as an extension of a more general interest in BDSM.""" #####c ##### # transracialism #####o # social acceptance in controversial hypatia article Tuvel 2017: claims transgenderism and transracialism *could* be considered analogous if they were both societally accepted (the latter is not): """In the case of sex, the recognition of transgender identity has involved a shift away from an emphasis on one’s sexed biology toward an emphasis on gendered selfidentification. In a similar fashion, the recognition of transracial identity might eventually involve a shift away from an emphasis on ancestral ties or skin color of origin toward an emphasis on racial self-identification. In both cases, I think we have stronger reasons to accept individuals’ self-identities than to force them to feel beholden to an identity thrust upon them at birth.10 The argument for this point is broadly Millian; as a rule, we should encourage “different experiments in living” and not interfere with others’ liberty unless doing so would prevent harm to others (Mill 2002, 47). I hope to have shown that harm to members of a race is not an inevitable or obvious consequence of transracialism and, importantly, no more inevitable or obvious in the case of race than of sex.""" #####c #####c ##### # # transgender: treatments for gender dysphoria # #####o ##### # background: model treatments #####o # methods: dutch approach vs affirmative approach Chen et al 2020: summarizes the concern at comparing European and American samples: """Most of these studies, however, were conducted in European clinics that initiate GnRHa or GAH at older ages, on average, than clinics in the U.S. within a “watchful waiting” model in which children are discouraged from engaging in social gender transitions until adolescence [7-9].""" Shumer and Spack 2015: summary of Dutch model before 2014 and a major limit of its age limits: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987501478363136000/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987501455663562772/unknown.png # the dutch model saw a massive increase of adolescents patients but no decrease of patients showing GD, suggesting high rates of untreated GD Arnoldussen et al 2018: the VUcm CEGD saw a ~10x increase of adolescent patients from 2000 to 2016, for a total of 1072; the proportion of patients assessed to have GD was constant over time; this suggests that GD may have been more common than thought; and this suggests that the Dutch model (including puberty blockers for Tanner Stage 2 adolescents) is applicable to patients currently applying for treatment in the Netherlands: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987469136747696178/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987468202999185468/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987468611801215016/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987770436311998474/unknown.png Arnoldussen et al 2018: the VUcm CEGD saw a ~10x increase of adolescent patients from 2000 to 2016, for a total of 1072; adolescent patients reported slightly better mental well-being over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987770801346449418/unknown.png """There are several reasons why one could hypothesize that early referrals may difer from more recent registered adolescents. Due to the increased awareness of GD, it could well be that adolescents are referred at a younger age in recent years. In addition, the experimental character of medical treatment may frst have attracted the most well-functioning group of adolescents with above average intelligence from stable families with a higher educational background able enough to support their of-spring to ask for a treatment that was still considered controversial in early years. The current fow of referrals might include families that are less well functioning in these aspects.""" Wiepjes et al 2018: among patients diagnosted with GD in the Dutch Model since 2000, a near-constant proportion of patients have received gender-affirming hormones (GAH); among those patients, a near-constnat proportion have received gender-affirming surgery (GAS): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987612302855516200/unknown.png #####c ##### # social affirmation: evidence for adolescents #####o # literature review: affirmation works Call Challa Telingator 2021: literature review: available evidence suggests that affirming care benefits transgender and gender diverse (TGD) children: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984964665312444446/unknown.png Call Challa Telingator 2021: literature review: available evidence suggests that affirming care does not "push" TGD children toward the socially transitioned identity: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984965539740925962/unknown.png # name acceptence affirmation benefits Russell et al 2018: among 74 trans youth (15-21 years old), each additional context where one can use one's chosen name (home, school, work, with friends) correlated with 29% lower suicidal ideation and 56% lower suicidal behavior; if suicidal behavior proxies the suicide attempt rate, and if the no-acceptance suicide attempt rate is ~40%, then being accepted in all four contexts would result in a lifetime attempted suicide rate of ~40*(.44)^4 = 1.5%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535886033082908672/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/936399107830972437/unknown.png There were no differences in depressive symptoms or suicidal behavior by personal characteristics including gender identity, race/ethnicity, sexual identity, age, access to free lunch, or study site. After adjusting for personal characteristics and total social support, chosen name use in more contexts predicted fewer depressive symptoms and less suicidal ideation and suicidal behavior (see Table 1). An increase by one context in which a chosen name could be used predicted a 5.37-unit decrease in depressive symptoms, a 29% decrease in suicidal ideation, and a 56% decrease in suicidal behavior. # parental affirmation benefits higher parental support correlates with depression, increases life satisfaction, and decreases perceived burden: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535885507922624512/unknown.png Controlling for demographic variables, parental support was significantly associated with higher life satisfaction, lower perceived burden, and fewer depressive symptoms; complete regression results are presented in Table 2. Durwood McLaughlin Olson 2017: among 63 socially transitioned trans youth (9-14 years old) who had affirming parents, rates of depression and anxiety were not significantly higher than matched controls or sibling peers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664574452495024128/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984961781741002822/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/944409789314768946/unknown.png n=116 trans children, n=122 cis children """Transgender children reported depression and self-worth that did not differ from their matched-control or sibling peers (p = .311), and they reported marginally higher anxiety (p = .076). Compared with national averages, transgender children showed typical rates of depression (p = .290) and marginally higher rates of anxiety (p = .096). Parents similarly reported that their transgender children experienced more anxiety than children in the control groups (p = .002) and rated their transgender children as having equivalent levels of depression (p = .728).""" trans adolescents with supportive parents reported 14x lower past-year suicide attempt rates and 2x higher "sufficient housing": (note: this study had no controls!): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/736765971045548163/unknown.png n=433 # affirmation does not push or lock children into their socially transitioned identity Gulgoz et al 2019: children who had socially transitioned for longer did not show stronger or weaker alignment with their gender identity than those who had transitioned for shorter, suggesting that social transition does not force/push children into an identity they disalign with: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984968138477166602/unknown.png Similarity in transgender and cisgender children’s gender development Gulgoz et al 2019: in fact, socially transitioned children had gender development very similar to their same-gender cis peers, across multiple aspects of gender (explicit identity, toys, clothing, peers): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984967214396489828/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984968149986332762/unknown.png Similarity in transgender and cisgender children’s gender development #####c ##### # social affirmation: evidence for adults #####o # access to inclusive bathrooms reduces suicide Seelman 2016: inclusive bathroom policies correlate with much lower suicide attempt rates among trans people: """Using the National Transgender Discrimination Survey, this study analyzes whether being denied access to these spaces is associated with lifetime suicide attempts, after controlling for interpersonal victimization by students or teachers. Findings from sequential logistic regression (N = 2,316) indicate that denial of access to either space had a significant relationship to suicidality, even after controlling for interpersonal victimization. This article discusses implications for higher education professionals and researchers.""" # anti-transgender violence reduces suicide Maguen and Shipherd 2009: among 141 trans respondents, AFAB identity, previous psychiatric hospitalization, and anti-transgender violence all significantly predicted higher previous suicide attempts; gender identity therapy, anxiety-depression therapy, and intravenous drug usage did not: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985737900903759872/unknown.png Wald rank correlation; convenience sampling; weak method? """We examined the frequency and predictors of suicide attempts among gender minority individuals (N = 153) who were recruited at a transgender conference.""" """Individuals were asked whether they had ever attempted suicide. If they responded that they had attempted suicide, they were asked to report the number of attempts. For the purposes of this study, the suicide attempts variable was categorised on a continuous scale, with a range of 0–6 in the current sample.""" # social affirmation reduces suicide Bauer et al 2015: among 380 resondents to the Trans PULSE survey, lower experienced transphobia correlated with 0.34x lower past-year suicidal ideation and 0.24x lower past-year suicide attempts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985715543229222992/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985715554813882398/unknown.png """Among trans Ontarians, 35.1 % (95 % CI: 27.6, 42.5) seriously considered, and 11.2 % (95 % CI: 6.0, 16.4) attempted, suicide in the past year. Social support, reduced transphobia, and having any personal identification documents changed to an appropriate sex designation were associated with large relative and absolute reductions in suicide risk, as was completing a medical transition through hormones and/or surgeries (when needed). Parental support for gender identity was associated with reduced ideation. Lower self-reported transphobia (10th versus 90th percentile) was associated with a 66 % reduction in ideation (RR=0.34, 95 % CI: 0.17, 0.67), and an additional 76 % reduction in attempts among those with ideation (RR=0.24; 95 % CI: 0.07, 0.82). This corresponds to potential prevention of 160 ideations per 1000 trans persons, and 200 attempts per 1,000 with ideation, based on a hypothetical reduction of transphobia from current levels to the 10th percentile.""" Perez-Brumer Hatzenbuehler Oldenburg Bockting 2015: among 1060 respondents, among trans adults, lower structural stigma correlated with 0.96x lower lifetime suicide attemtps and higher internalized transphobia correlated with 1.18x higher lifetime suicide attempt rates; among 766 respondents, neither was significantly correlated with past-year suicide attempts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985709255275470918/unknown.png """This study assessed individual (ie, internalized transphobia) and structural forms of stigma as risk factors for suicide attempts among transgender adults. Internalized transphobia was assessed through a 26-item scale including four dimensions: pride, passing, alienation, and shame. State-level structural stigma was operationalized as a composite index, including density of same-sex couples; proportion of Gay–Straight Alliances per public high school; 5 policies related to sexual orientation discrimination; and aggregated public opinion toward homosexuality. Multivariable logistic generalized estimating equation models assessed associations of interest among an online sample of transgender adults (N = 1,229) representing 48 states and the District of Columbia. Lower levels of structural stigma were associated with fewer lifetime suicide attempts (AOR 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–0.997), and a higher score on the internalized transphobia scale was associated with greater lifetime suicide attempts (AOR 1.18, 95% CI 1.04–1.33). Addressing stigma at multiple levels is necessary to reduce the vulnerability of suicide attempts among transgender adults.""" Zeluf Dhejne et al 2018: among 796 trans respondents, exposure to offensive anti-trans treatment, trans-related violence, and lower practical support were associated with significantly higher past-year suicidal ideation or lifetime suicide attempts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/986352677791363153/unknown.png convenience sample from Zeluf et al 2016 """Suicide ideation during the past 12 months was measured by the following question: ‘‘Have you during the last 12 months seriously considered taking your own life?" The variable was dichotomized into yes (‘‘yes, once"/‘‘yes, several times") and no.""" """Lifetime suicide attempts were measured by the following question: ‘‘Have you ever tried to take your own life?" The variable was dichotomized into yes (‘‘yes, between the past 2 weeks and 1 year ago"/‘‘yes, more than a year ago") and no.""" """Participants were self-selected anonymously to a webbased survey between September and November 2014. Participants were recruited via advertisements and email invitations sent by Scandinavia’s largest online community for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) people (Qruiser). Other LGBTQ organizations promoted the study via different social media channels and personal invitations to email lists. The study was also advertised via Google AdWords and flyers that were distributed at selected gender clinics.""" """A number of covariates were controlled for in the multivariable analysis, regardless of their significance in the univariable analysis. These include age, education, income, employment status, country of birth, risky consumption of alcohol, and illicit drug use during the past 6 months.""" Rood et al 2015: lifetime suicidal ideation was higher among victims of physical or sexual violence, of gender-related discrimination, and those living full-time in the gender of their choice: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/986004048169799720/unknown.png """Have you ever thought about killing yourself?""" """Results are from final models and each model controls for age, gender identity, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment.""" """Investigators conducted a health needs assessment in Virginia from 2005 to 2006 using community-based participatory research practices.22 Participants were recruited through healthcare providers, peer networks, newsletters, support groups, and community events throughout the state. Participants completed an online or paper-and-pencil questionnaire.""" """Finally, the lack of a significant association between lifetime SI and reporting three or more discrimination experiences is unexpected. For this result, a closer examination shows that only 8.9% of the total sample reported three or more discrimination experiences. Thus, the regression analysis with this variable was limited by a small cell size when the frequency extended beyond two types, which limits statistical power and may have produced an unreliable estimate.""" #####c ##### # puberty blockers and puberty suppression #####o # literature review Call Challa Telingator 2021: literature review: puberty suppression is temporary and reversible; give time for an adolescent to decide their gender; have long been used to treat precocious puberty; show no long-term side effects: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984984097401212988/unknown.png # todo de Vries et al 2011: todo reread xxx: that transgender children treated with puberty blockers showed improved psychological functioning: de Vries et al 2014: todo reread xxx: that transgender children treated with puberty blockers showed improved psychological functioning: ^ todotodotodo very important Mahfouda et al 2017: todo reread xxx: puberty blockers do not alter long-term pubertal development but rather temporarily pause the progression of endogenous puberty to give patients time to explore their gender without committing to irreversible development of secondary sex characteristics: # puberty blockers reduce suicidality to that of cis youth van der Miesen et al 2019: compared to 651 cis youth, scores for internalizing, externalizing, & suicidality were similar among 178 trans youth using puberty blockers but were higher among 272 trans youth not on puberty suppression: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984978952412094464/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984979178392789002/unknown.png """The samples in this study consisted of consecutive referrals to the Center of Expertise on Gender Dysphoria of the VU University Medical Center (VUmc) in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, between 2012 and 2015, and a control group of cisgender adolescents recruited in 2015 in the general population. During this period, 504 adolescents were seen in our gender identity service. Fiftythree participants did not complete the assessment process and did, therefore, not participate in this study. The reason for dropout was failure to complete the questionnaire or alternation of symptoms of GD. Of the adolescents diagnosed with GD, 179 were about to start GAH treatment. One participant did not complete the questionnaire and was thus excluded. Therefore, in this cross-sectional study, the three groups that were compared consisted of (1) adolescents who just started the assessment process (n ¼ 272; mean age ¼ 14.5 years; 116 assigned boys at birth and 156 assigned girls at birth), (2) adolescents diagnosed with GD who were on puberty suppression and about to start GAH treatment (n ¼ 178; mean age ¼ 16.8 years; 68 assigned boys at birth and 110 assigned girls at birth), and (3) cisgender adolescents recruited from the general population (n ¼ 651; mean age ¼ 15.4 years; 346 assigned boys at birth and 305 assigned girls at birth). Adolescents who just started the diagnostic procedure were assessed during their first sessions at the VUmc. Adolescents diagnosed with GD were assessed before the start of GAH. During both assessments, parents and children completed several questionnaires [20].""" # puberty blockers reduce lifetime suicidal ideation by many times Turban et al 2020: among 20619 trans adults (18-36 years old), 2.5% reported puberty blocker use in adolescence; that segment reported 0.3x as much lifetime suicidal ideation as those who wanted but could not receive puberty blockers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984982868533063720/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984983329659060294/unknown.png # bone density Lee et al 2020: bone density is often lower among trans youth and trans adults *before* starting puberty blockers or hormone therapy; https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987483483079327774/unknown.png """Data from the Netherlands have shown that pretreatment BMD Z-scores determined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) were significantly low in late-pubertal transgender girls before GnRHa and failed to normalize upon treatment with estradiol [9, 10]. Adult studies have similarly shown low BMD Z-scores in transgender women before and after GAH [11-13]. A UK study showed late-pubertal transgender boys had lower pretreatment BMD Z-scores by DXA at the spine and hip [14]. In contrast, another Dutch study that focused on transgender boys in late or postpuberty (median age, 16.5 years) showed normal mean pretreatment BMD Z-scores by DXA at the spine and hip [15].""" # non-useful data: trans youth care study Olson-Kennedy 2018: outlines the research protocol of the Trans Youth Care Study (TYCS), which will examine 90 puberty blocker and 301 gender-affirming hormone patients: """Audio computer-assisted self-interview and individual interview survey instruments are used to collect demographic, mental health, psychosocial, and behavioral data from parents and youth in the blocker cohort and only from youth in the gender-affirming hormone cohort at baseline and 6, 12, 18, and 24 months.""" """Participant recruitment commenced in July 2016, and enrollment was completed in September 2018. A total of 90 participants were enrolled in the blocker cohort and 301 participants were enrolled in the gender-affirming hormone cohort. Findings based on baseline data are expected to be submitted for publication in 2019.""" convenience sample of patients from four pediatric academic medical centers in the US Chen et al 2020: further outlines the protocol: """In 2015, the National Institutes of Health funded four pediatric academic medical centers to conduct a prospective, longitudinal study to provide a critical evidence base to inform medical treatment of youth GD.""" """Eligibility for TYC enrollment included (1) presence of GD as determined by a clinician; (2) appropriate and ready to initiate GnRHa or GAH as determined by the primary treatment team; (3) ages 8e20 years; (4) English proficiency; and (5) seeking services at one of the four study site clinics.""" Chen et al 2020: the demographics of non-enrolled individuals at two study locations (of four) were not statistically different from the demographics of enrolled individuals, suggesting that TYHC results are generalizeable to (at least) transgender youth in other pediatric academic centers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987478524057227344/unknown.png Chen et al 2020: the rate of past-half-year suicide attempts was lower among patients on puberty blockers than on gender-affirming hormones; this is almost certainly due to age effects, since PB age was 12 and GAH age was 16; not high quality evidence: #####c ##### # hormone replacement therapy: evidence in adolescents: evidence for adolescents #####o # literature review: summary Call Challa Telingator 2021: HRT is irreversible, but so is puberty, and both should be considered carefully; and HRT has large positive effects on well-being: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984985888956219402/unknown.png # effects: mental health improvements: longitudinal data Kuper et al 2020: among 148 trans youth (9–18yo) taking hormone replacement therapy (83%), reported mental health improved and suicidal ideation, suicide attempt, and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) decreased at both 1-3 month and 18+ month followup: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984994330261458955/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984992978412118026/unknown.png # effects: mental health improvements: cross-sectional data Green et al 2022: among 11914 trans or nonbinary youth, gender-affirming hormone therapy correlated with 0.61x rates of depression, 0.74x serious consideration of suicide, and 0.62x suicide attempts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985001764182954027/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985001924053045248/unknown.png #####c ##### # cross-sex hormone therapy: evidence for adults #####o # literature review: mental health Nguyen et al 2018: literature review: improved mental health: """Although there are some conflicting data, GAHT overwhelmingly seems to have positive psychological effects in both adolescents and adults. Research tends to support that GAHT reduces symptoms of anxiety and depression, lowers perceived and social distress, and improves quality of life and self-esteem in both male-to-female and female-to-male transgender individuals.""" # effects: mental health Heylens 2014: among 57 patients (adults), hormone therapy decreased symptoms of mental distress for trans people to that of the general population: """A difference in SCL-90 overall psychoneurotic distress was observed at the different points of assessments (P = 0.003), with the most prominent decrease occurring after the initiation of hormone therapy (P < 0.001). Significant decreases were found in the subscales such as anxiety, depression, interpersonal sensitivity, and hostility. Furthermore, the SCL-90 scores resembled those of a general population after hormone therapy was initiated. Analysis of the psychosocial variables showed no significant differences between pre- and postoperative assessments.""" Colizzi 2014: among 107 patients (age ~29), rates of depression were ~19pp higher before hormone therapy (42%) than after 12 months on hormone therapy (33%):: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984997014225952808/unknown.png Colizzi et al 2013: among 70 patients (age ~28), cortisol levels and perceived stress were above normal before hormone therapy, but after 12 months of hormone therapy were within normal levels: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984995819541368882/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/984996024038875226/unknown.png # effects: suicidal ideation Wilson et al 2014: among 314 transwomen, hormone use and breast augmentation correlated with 0.2x and 0.3x lower lifetime suicidal ideation; genital surgery was not significantly correlated: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985976830978818088/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985981330930147348/unknown.png """Suicidal ideation was coded as positive for yes responses to the question “Have you ever had thoughts or ideations of committing suicide?”""" """These models adjust for age group and race/ethnicity, which are possible confounders for the associations of interest.""" """Overall, utilization of transition-related medical care was associated with significantly lower estimated odds of suicidal ideation, binge drinking, and non-injection drug use.""" """Of the 314 transwomen in the sample, 22 had not utilized transition-related medical care as defined for this analysis, 292 had accessed hormones, 49 had breast augmentation, and 28 had genital surgery. Of the 28 transwomen who has genital surgery, 14 also utilized breast augmentation and all utilized hormones. Of the 35 transwomen who accessed breast augmentation, 34 accessed hormones.""" # effects: cardiovascular health worsened transfeminine (MtF) women on cross-sex hormones had 2-4x higher rates of venous thromboembolism (blood clot in veins, usually leg), 2-4x higher rates of ischemic stroke (blood clot in brain/head), and insignificantly higher rates of myocardial infarction (heart attack); there were too few transmasculine cardiovascular events to make any significant claims: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/671699934147248128/unknown.png n="2842 transfeminine and 2118 transmasculine members with a mean follow-up of 4.0 and 3.6 years, respectively, matched to 48[,]686 cisgender men and 48[,]775 cisgender women." "In summary, the present study demonstrated that cross-sex estrogen is a risk factor for VTE and probably ischemic stroke among transfeminine persons." #####c ##### # desistance from transgender identity in youth: rates #####o # rate estimates: newest, highest quality Olson et al 2022: among 280 transgender youth who started social gender transition around 6 years old, 98.9% remained transgender (opposite gender or nonbinary) at the end of the study, around 5.5 years since starting transition: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/971974456501223434/unknown.png # rate estimates: older / worse Bakwin 1968: n=55 natal boys, followup age 13-36, persistence 5 of 55 (9%): [source unavailable] ^ Zuger 1984, followup to Bakwin 1968: n=55, transgender identity not established/investigated: Davenport 1986: n=10, most of the patients were not transgender: Kosky 1987: n=8: Lebovitch 1972: n=16: Money and Russo: n=11: Zucker and Bradley 1995: 80%, 8.5 years: in Toronto in 1980's-90's, 80% (36/45) desisted of 45 respondents (age 16.7) to the second wave of a survey of 45 attendees (age 8.3) of a gender identity clinic: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/661638966260269085/unknown.png [can't access table 10.5] "In the Green (1987) study, fewer young people went on to self-identify as transsexual but the criteria for inclusion in the study were less strict" [can't access source] # rate estimates: newer Drummon 2008: Wallien and Cohen-Kettenis 2008: 61%, 11 years: in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2005, 61.1% (33/54) desisted of 54 respondents (mean age 19.2) to the second wave of a survey of 77 attendees (age 8.37) of a gender identity clinic: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/673963401810149397/unknown.png """Because there were no significant differences between the desistance group and the parent group for all background variables (marital status: #2 3 = 4.41, p 9 .05); diagnoses in childhood (#2 1 = 0.676, p 9 .05); nationality: (#2 4 = 2.56, p 9 .05); full-scale IQ (z = j0.27, p = .80); and psychological functioning, as measured by the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL; total T scores [z = j0.88, p 9 .05], internalizing T scores [z = j0.84, p 9 .05], or externalizing T scores [z = j1.17, p 9 .05]), the participants in the parent group were included in the desistance group. Therefore, the desistance group consisted of 33 participants (28 boys and 5 girls).""" Singh 2012: 88%, 13 years: in Toronto between 1986 and 2011, 122 (87.8%) desisted of 139 respondents (mean age 20.58) in the second wave of a survey of 179 attendees (mean age 7.49 years): Steensma et al. 2013: 63%, 7 years: in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2008, 63.0% (80/127) desisted of 127 respondents and nonrespondents (mean age 16.1) to the second wave of a survey of 127 attendees (mean age 9.15) of a gender identity clinic; persistence was correlated with higher age, childhood social transition, and higher gender identity questionaire scores: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/661565812766670878/unknown.png """For the 3 desister groups, no significant differences were observed between the responders, parents who responded, and nonresponders for the demographic variables, except for childhood diagnosis (c2 [2] ¼ 6.90, p < .05). The adolescents for whom the parents responded were more likely to have a subthreshold diagnosis for GID than the responders and nonresponders. However, in their scores on the childhood measures of GD and psychological functioning, the 3 groups were not significantly different. Given this information, the 3 groups were combined to 1 group of desisters for further analyses.""" Steensma and Cohen-Kettenis 2015: 70%, n=150: in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2014, of 150 respondents (mean age 8.31), 40 returned (mean age 13.2) for treatment between 12-18 years old (measured persistence: 40/150=26.7%), 5 returned (mean age 24) between 21-37 years old (measured persistence: 45/150=30%): Clarke and Spiliadis 2019: 58%, 1.5 years: in the USA between 2014 and 2017, 58.3% (7/12) desisted of 12 patients (mean age 14.1) with adolescent-emerging gender dysphoria within 18 months of the first clinical session: """The mean length of the psychosocial assessment was 9.6months (range=2–14 months). The mean number of assessment sessions was 6.6 (range=2–9 sessions). The mean number of individual appointments was 1.7 (range=0–4 sessions) and the mean number of family sessions was 5 (range=1–8 sessions), that is, on the whole, family sessions constituted much of the assessment. During the course of assessment, seven of the young people, all of whom no longer requested medical interventions also no longer felt that their gender identity was incongruent with their biological sex; the remainder continued in their trans identities but no longer desired medical interventions. Out of the 12 cases, the majority had not received a formal diagnosis of GD.""" #####c ##### # desistance from transgender identity: consequences #####o # gender affirming care models are beneficial for all patients, not just trans American Academy of Pediatrics 2018 guidelines: Rafferty et al 2018: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985055816010825728/unknown.png """There is a limited but growing body of evidence that suggests that using an integrated affirmative model results in young people having fewer mental health concerns whether they ultimately identify as transgender.""" #####c ##### # sexual reassignment surgery: efficacy in adults #####o # meta-studies: surgical outcomes Manrique et al 2018: meta-study of 471 articles: summary: "Multiple surgical techniques have demonstrated safe and reliable means of MtF vaginoplasty with low overall complication rates and with a significant improvement in the patient's quality of life." https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1065006575825190992/image.png Manrique et al 2018: meta-study of 471 articles: 92% of vaginoplasty patients reported overall satisfaction, 86% satisfaction with function, 90% with aesthetic outcomes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983168589085409310/unknown.png """Patient-reported outcomes pooled from studies with both techniques, as shown in Figure 3, included an overall satisfaction rate of 92% (75%–100%) with overall results, 86% (72%–95%) with function, and 90% (74%–95%) with aesthetic outcomes. With the penile inversion technique, patient-reported outcomes included a satisfaction rate of 88% (71%–99%) with overall results, 86% (66%–98%) with function, and 86% (71%–96%) with esthetics outcome. Only one study reported overall satisfaction with overall results, and all patients in this study were satisfied.22 Satisfaction with functional outcomes in the intestinal vaginoplasty group was of 86% (75%–95%). One group reported satisfaction with esthetic outcomes in this group, which was 86% (69%–94%).16""" Manrique et al 2018: meta-study: 76% reported ability to have an orgasm, 89% with intestinal vaginoplasty: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983168732882944050/unknown.png """The ability to have an orgasm was 76% (60%–90%; Fig. 4). Within the penile inversion group, this was 75% (57%–89%). One study reported this for intestinal vaginoplasty, which was 89% (72%–96%).""" Manrique et al 2018: meta-study: 1% of patients had a fistula (undesired hole), 14% had stenosis and strictures (constriction), 2% had tissue necrosis (local tissue death), and 4% had prolapse (vagina or urethra sticks out): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983170810766303242/unknown.png """Complications from pooled data including both skin inversion technique and vaginoplasty with intestinal flaps showed 1% (1%–6%) fistula, 14% (10%–18%) stenosis and strictures, 2% (0%–8%) tissue necrosis, and 4% (2%–10%) prolapse, of which the majority were neovaginal (78%) and the remaining urethral. Figure 2 shows overall complications and grouped by vaginoplasty technique. Complications with the penile inversion technique included 1% (0%–5%) fistula formation, 10% (7%–15%) stenosis or stricture, 2% (0%–8%) tissue necrosis, and 3% (1%–8%) prolapse (77% neovagina, 23% urethral). Complications with intestinal vaginoplasty included 6% (2%–20%) fistula formation, 17% (9%–16%) stenosis or stricture, and 3% (1%–8%) prolapse (81% neovagina, 29% urethral). There were no reported cases of partial or complete tissue necrosis in the intestinal pedicle group. Most complications reported among the 2 techniques had an I 2 value greater than 50% representing considerable heterogeneity in the number complications reported (GRADE: low quality).""" # meta-studies: general quality of life: mixed but net positive support Passos Teixeira Almeida-Santos 2019: meta-analysis: over 14 studies of 881 individuals: after gender affirmation surgery (GAS), reported physical, sexual, and psycological well-being significantly improved by ~2 standard deviations (many studies); but reported physical health significantly decreased by ~1 standard deviation (one study): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983149856380039268/unknown.png """The combination of studies shows a slight positive effect of GAS on individuals’ quality of life. The study with trans men population submitted to mastectomy (study 8) obtained better results. Besides, it was the only one with significant results in all modules of the QoL questionnaire. Among them, the top results were breast satisfaction (p < 0.0001) and psychosocial well-being (p < 0.0001), although sexual satisfaction (p < 0.0001) and physical well-being (p < 0.0001) showed positive results as well. Studies with trans women population also had positive effects in specific modules (studies 6, 10). Domains II (psychological) (p = 0.041) and IV (social relationships) (p = 0.007) were improved significantly after GAS (study 6). Patients mostly improved general satisfaction (p = 0.01), or satisfaction with body image (p < 0.01) or self-esteem (p = 0.01) (study 10). Nonetheless, these studies stand out because they have a negative effect. Domains I (physical health) (p = 0.002) and III (level of independence) (p = 0.031) were significantly worse after GAS (study 6). In one of the studies, the negative effect on two modules brought positive data regarding quality of life. Before surgery, the results of the Patient Health Questionnaire-4 displayed high value of 3.95, which suggested mild depression and anxiety disorder. After surgery, the values concerning this specific score were significantly lower (p < 0.01). The lower value in the Freiburg Personality Inventory score found in T1 (p = 0.03) compared to T0 showed greater emotional stability.""" # high-quality evidence: several specific outcomes areas: meta-study found strong support in weak evidence Murad et al 2010: meta-analysis: over 28 studies of 1833 SRS+HRT patients (mean followup 6 years), 72%-80% of patients improved; indicators: gender dysphoria, psychiatric wellbeing [including suicidal ideation], quality of life, and sexual wellbeing; however, just 3 studies used controls: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983125780110389248/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983125787043594360/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983125793712513064/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983125800746377266/unknown.png """Pooling across studies shows that after sex reassignment, 80% of individuals with GID reported significant improvement in gender dysphoria (95% CI = 68–89%; 8 studies; I2 = 82%); 78% reported significant improvement in psychological symptoms (95% CI = 56–94%; 7 studies; I2 = 86%); 80% reported significant improvement in quality of life (95% CI = 72–88%; 16 studies; I2 = 78%); and 72% reported significant improvement in sexual function (95% CI = 60–81%; 15 studies; I2 = 78%).""" # some small studies to characterize the literature review Cohen-Kettenis and Van Goozen 1997: among 22 trans individuals of average age 17.5, after follow-up of 1 year or more, none expressed regret, and gender dysphoria had fallen to normal levels in the general population: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983146014435344404/unknown.png """Postoperatively the group was no longer gender-dysphoric ; they scored in the normal range with respect to a number of different psychological measures and they were socially functioning quite well. Not a single subject expressed feelings of regret concerning the decision to undergo sex reassignment.""" # high-quality evidence: large Swedish population-matching study: no effect among trans population w/ surgery compared to trans population w/ no surgery Branstrom et al 2020, using data on every individual in Sweden from 2005-2015, focused on among all individuals with legal gender changes in Sweden (n=2679) following diagnosis of gender incongruence, found no difference between hormone/no-hormone and surgery/no-surgery trans individuals for the outcomes of {hospitalization for suicide attempt} and for {mental health service use}; however, the measure of mental health service is weak: original: addendum: letters: updated paper: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/743660401551605800/unknown.png # summary of murad and branstrom Almazan and Keuroghlian 2021: summary of the above studies: controversial evidence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985051158529847337/unknown.png """Existing evidence on the association between gender-affirming surgeries and mental health outcomes is largely derived from small-sample, cross-sectional, and uncontrolled studies.1,11,12 A seminal 1998 review of the experiences of more than 2000 TGD people from 79 predominantly uncontrolled follow-up studies demonstrated qualitative improvement in psychosocial outcomes following gender-affirming surgery.11 Attempts since then to empirically demonstrate mental health benefits from gender-affirming surgery have generated mixed results. A meta-analysis of 1833 TGD people across 28 studies concluded that studies offered “low-quality evidence” for positive mental health benefits from surgical gender affirmation.12 The largest existing study on this subject to our knowledge,13 a total population study including 2679 people diagnosed as having gender incongruence in Sweden, demonstrated a longitudinal association between gender-affirming surgery and reduced mental health treatment utilization.13 However, a 2020 published correction of this study14 demonstrated no mental health benefit from gender-affirming surgery after comparison with a control group of TGD people who had not yet undergone surgery. Mental health effects of gender-affirming surgery thus remain controversial.""" # debunk: misuse of "sweden study" by dhejne Dhejne et al 2011: this study only used **non-transgender individuals** as the control; it cannot evaluate whether social or medical transition affects suicide: All 324 sex-reassigned persons (191 male-to-females, 133 female-to-males) in Sweden, 1973–2003. Random population controls (10:1) were matched by birth year and birth sex or reassigned (final) sex, respectively. [....] It is therefore important to note that the current study is only informative with respect to transsexual persons health after sex reassignment; no inferences can be drawn as to the effectiveness of sex reassignment as a treatment for transsexualism. In other words, the results should not be interpreted such as sex reassignment per se increases morbidity and mortality. Things might have been even worse without sex reassignment. Dhejne commenting on Reddit in 2017: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985021585654153306/unknown.png """I have said many times that the study is not design to evaluate the outcome of medical transition. It DOES NOT say that medical transition causes people to commit suicide. However it does say that people who have transition are more vulnerable and that we need to improve care. I am happy about that it has also been seen that way and in those cases help to secure more resources to transgender health care. On a personal level I can get both angry and sad of the misinterpretations and also sometimes astonished that some researcher don’t seem to understand some basics about research methology.""" Dhejne 2017: the author has repeatedly stated that her study doesn't support anti-SRS or pro-SRS beliefs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985022759652450314/unknown.png """Dhejne: The aim of trans medical interventions is to bring a trans person’s body more in line with their gender identity, resulting in the measurable diminishment of their gender dysphoria. However trans people as a group also experience significant social oppression in the form of bullying, abuse, rape and hate crimes. Medical transition alone won’t resolve the effects of crushing social oppression: social anxiety, depression and posttraumatic stress. What we’ve found is that treatment models which ignore the effect of cultural oppression and outright hate aren’t enough. We need to understand that our treatment models must be responsive to not only gender dysphoria, but the effects of anti-trans hate as well. That’s what improved care means.""" """Dhejne: People who misuse the study always omit the fact that the study clearly states that it is not an evaluation of gender dysphoria treatment. If we look at the literature, we find that several recent studies conclude that WPATH Standards of Care compliant treatment decrease gender dysphoria and improves mental health.""" # debunk: misuse of williams institute study Herman Brown Haas 2019: all correlations in this study are univariate and should be ignored; beyond that, the odds ratio reported by Last as "visibly trans" comes from the question "People can tell I’m trans, even if I don’t tell them" and compares those who "always" pass and those who "never" pass; this is not the same as choosing to be visibly trans!: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/986025856336015410/unknown.png # debunk: idiotic study by heritage foundation Greene 2022: claims puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones increase youth suicide: Reed 2022: the study above's dependent variable was whether minors can access a doctor w/o parental consent (not access to puberty blockers or cross-sex hormones); the states rated as more-affirming include arch-conservative states Florida, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, Alabama, Arizona, North Dakota, Idaho, Indiana; and the model was clearly re-fit to obtain statistically significant results: # todotodotodo chen 2019 Chen et al 2019: trans individuals who reported seeking gender reassignment surgery (but almost certainly not getting it) had 1.761x higher suicidal ideation and : https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985986642034692106/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985986679921852506/unknown.png """In China, imperfect transgender medical treatment and a lack of relevant laws and regulations are major obstacles to successfully dealing with identifying as a transgender individual. It is difficult for the TW and TM population to complete gender reassignment surgery due to barriers to obtaining surgical information and a lack of surgical resources in China. Moreover, most of the relevant prerequisites outlined in surgical regulations are unreasonable or excessively demanding for recipients (Jiang et al., 2014). For instance, the individual must get approval from direct relatives, and obtain a clear criminal record from the public security office.""" """Snowball sampling also was used in this study. The method of approaching first-wave participants was contact from LGBT centers, educational institutions, and social networking platforms/media through phone calls, text messages or online recruitment advertisement. Participants were then asked to help identify further recruits (second and subsequent snowball waves). All participants remained anonymous, and written informed consent was obtained prior to participation.""" #####c ##### # sexual reassignment surgery: detransition and regret rates #####o # summary Detransition is real and should be respected -- but it's very rare and should not be used to restrict gender-affirming healthcare. # retransition is common James et al 2016: USTS: 8% of trans people have ever detransitioned; of those, 62% reported that they are currently living in a gender different than their birth gender; thus, 3% have permanently or currently detransitioned to their birth gender: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987806275674964028/unknown.png """Respondents were asked whether they had ever “de-transitioned,” which was defined as having “gone back to living as [their] sex assigned at birth, at least for a while.” Eight percent (8%) of respondents reported having de-transitioned at some point. Most of those who de-transitioned did so only temporarily: 62% of those who had de-transitioned reported that they were currently living full time in a gender different than the gender they were thought to be at birth.""" # literature review: trans surgery in general, mostly vaginoplasty and mastectomy Bustos et al 2021: meta-study: across 27 studies with 7928 patients, 77 (0.97%) reported "sometimes" or "always" regretting their surgery: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079940928342593596/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983142681129660436/unknown.png Bustos et al 2021: meta-study: across 27 studies with 7928 patients, the rate of regret was roughly 2% after vaginoplasties and less than 1% after mastectomy: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983142821454282802/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983149048087339008/unknown.png ^ Exposito-Campos and Angelo 2021: critique of the above study: ^ Bustos 2021: corrected the main study, but corrections caused no significant change in conclusions: ^ Bustos 2021: responded to the above methodological concerns; both were not valid: # large study: dutch sample Wiepjes et al 2018: 2760 trans women and 985 trans men visited the VUcm CEGD (representing 95% of Dutch patients for gender dysphoria from 1972-2015); of those, 2624 trans women (68.9%) and 1183 trans men (72.9%) began gender-affirming hormones (GAH); of those, 1976 trans women (79.5%) and 992 trans men (83.8%) obtained gender-affirming surgery (GAS); and of those, 11 trans women (0.6%) and 3 trans men (0.3%) reported regret to the CEGD: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987594105620164608/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987602689540112434/unknown.png Wiepjes et al 2018: the VUcm CEGD sample includes ~95% of Dutch patients for gender dysphoria from 1972-2015: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987612873041784882/unknown.png # large study: usts sample Turban et al 2021: among 17151 respondents to the USTS who pursued gender affirmation, 2242 (13.1%) reported any detransition during their life: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/989341689359519834/unknown.png # literature review: vaginoplasty Manrique et al 2018: meta-study: after vaginoplasty, slightly more than 1% of patients regretted the surgery: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983169342684422184/unknown.png """Regret (Fig. 5) about have the procedure was 1% (0–3%) overall, 2% (0–4%) in the penile inversion group, and 0% in the one study that reported this in the intestinal vaginoplasty group.38 The GRADE results for all patient-reported outcomes were very low and low quality.""" # survey of surgeons Danker et al 2018: among 46 surgeons who performed an estimated 22,725 sexual reassignment surgeries, surgeons reported that just 38 surgeries (.17%) were reversals and 62 patients (0.27%) regretted their surgery: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983121501727367198/unknown.png Surgeons were asked to select a range representing the number of transgender patients they have surgically treated, and this amounted to a cumulative number of approximately 22,725 patients treated by the cohort. 49% of respondents had never encountered a patient who regretted their gender transition or were seeking detransition care. 12 providers encountered 1 patient with regret and the rest encountered more than one patient. This amounted to a total of 62 patients. There were 13 patients who regretted chest surgery and 45 patients who regretted genital surgery. The composition of the patients who sought detransition is as follows: 16 trans-men, 37 trans-women, and 6 non-binary patients. The most common reason cited for detransition was change in gender identity (22 patients) followed by rejection or alienation from family or social support (8 patients) and difficulty in romantic relationships (7 patients). Chronic post-operative pain was also cited as a reason for detransition. 7 trans-women who sought detransition had vaginal stenosis, 2 had rectovaginal fistulae, and 3 had chronic genital pain. 2 trans-men who sought detransition had a urethral fistula and one had a urethral stricture. 9 of the 46 respondents performed a total of 38 detransition procedures. # uk medical sample Davies McIntyre Rypma 2019: among 3398 patients attending an adult gender identity clinic in the UK in 2016, just 0.47% used terms suggesting regret for their medical transition: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983119426167656508/unknown.png """Patient assessment reports created between August 1st 2016 to August 1st 2017 were scanned electronically for words related to detransition or regret. The reports that were retrieved in the search were reviewed by study authors to identify evidence that patients had detransitioned or expressed regret related to their transition. Data extraction included patients’ age, gender identity, gender assigned at birth, and descriptions of their detransition or regret.""""""Of the 3398 patients who had appointments during this period, 16 (0.47%) expressed transition-related regret or detransitioned. Of these 16, one patient expressed regret but was not considering detransitioning, two had expressed regret and were considering detransitioning, three had detransitioned, and ten had detransitioned temporarily. The reasons stated by patients for their regret or detransition included: social factors, reporting physical complications, and changing their mind about their gender identity and identifying as their gender assigned at birth. The 16 patients consisted of 11 trans women, two trans men, two cis men, and one person assigned male at birth who said their gender identity was “trans”.""" # legal gender change in sweden Dhejne et al 2014: from 1960 to 2011 in Sweden, 681 individuals requested and received both sex reassignment surgery (SRS) and a legal gender change; of these, 15 later requested a legal gender change to their birth gender; this suggests a 2.2% detransition rate or regret rate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987809619197960273/unknown.png Dhejne et al 2014: the above rate has declined dramatically with time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987808698682466465/unknown.png #####c ##### # restrictions on gender-affirming care in the usa #####o # effect on travel times Borah et al 2023: 20 states have banned affirmative trans healthcare for minors; if all bans survive, 25.3% (!!) of trans kids will be more than an 8-hour drive (!!) from the nearest clinic:: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1133956304730345533/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1133956839462150164/image.png """The national median drive time to the nearest clinic was 0.51 (IQR, 0.19-1.08) hours prior to re- strictions, compared with 0.99 (IQR, 0.28- 4.02) hours under restrictions (P < .001) (Figure). Compared with 27.2% prior to restrictions, an estimated 50.0% of US youths aged 10 to 17 years lived more than 1 hour from a clinic under restrictions (P < .001). Prior to restric- tions, 1.4% of US youths lived more than a 1-day drive (8 hours of total drive time; 4 hours 1 way) from a clinic, increasing to 25.3% under restrictions (P < .001). The largest absolute in- creases in median drive times were in Florida (+8.5 hours), Texas (+6.7 hours), and Utah (+5.0 hours)""" #####c #####c ##### # # transgender: myths about transgender # #####o ##### # absurdly high transgender suicide rates #####o # my videos Socialism Done Left 2019: trans suicide rates are likely 5-15x higher than the general populace, but 40% of the trans population does *not* kill itself: # data nonexistence the data does not yet exist: Studies over the last four decades suggest that LGBT individuals may have an elevated risk for suicide ideation and attempts. Attention to this disparity has been limited, in part because neither the U.S. death certificate nor the NVDRS identify decedents’ sexual orientation or gender identity. Thus, it is not known whether LGBT people die by suicide at higher rates than comparable heterosexual people. # estimation: usa the average US suicide rate in 2015 was 13.0 per 100,000 per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/647495226314850328/unknown.png # estimation: past-year USTS 2015: transgender people in the USA report 5-10 times higher past-year suicide attempts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643974948401971210/unknown.png NSDUH results with larger groups: 0.6% of adults: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/972591392524214342/unknown.png Crosby et al 2011: using NSDUH 2008-2009: # estimation: lifetime transgender people in the USA report 40% lifetime suicide attempt rate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643975438133100564/unknown.png Kessler Borges Walters 1998: self-reported lifetime suicide attempt rate among people in the USA is 4.6% in 1990-1992 National Comorbidity Survey n=5877: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/648525973532442634/unknown.png Baca-Garcia et al 2008: self-reported lifetime suicide attempt rate among people in the USA is 2.4% in both 1991–1992 National Longitudinal Alcohol Epidemiologic Survey n=42862 and 2001–2002 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions n=43093: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644158896822419484/unknown.png queer adults: Hottes et al 2016: # estimation: adolescent transgender adolescents report 1.27-1.84 times higher lifetime suicide attempts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643946414359052325/unknown.png """Self-reported lifetime suicide behavior was assessed with a single question: “Have you ever tried to kill yourself?” The response options included: no; yes, once; yes, twice; and yes, more than 2 times. These responses were dichotomized such that 0 = never and 1 = ever""" general public: Steele et al 2017: # homeless youth: around the same rate Barnes Gilbertson Chatterjee: 9.3% of youth who were homeless with an adult family member reported attempting suicide in the past year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/974181105781604362/unknown.png # holocaust: pre-nazi era and nazi era the successful suicide rate among Jews in Germany before the Nazi era was about 27.1-53.2 per 100,000 per year (simple mean (31.5+27.1+33.1+25.0+42.1)/5=31.8); in cities, the rate was 13-67.8 per 100,000 per year (simple mean (67.8+48+13+17+41)/5=37): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/647811683829415939/lester05_prenazi.png the successful suicide rate among non-deported Jews in Germany during the Nazi era was about 158-317 per 100,000 per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/647811682105819139/lester05_noncamps.png # holocaust: ghettos in the Lodz ghetto, according to a secret Jewish chronicle, completed suicides per 100,000 per year were 21.6 in 1941, 84.6 in 1942, and unknown for 1943-44: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/647493934389657612/unknown.png # holocaust: camps suicide among holocaust concentration camps was at least ~1 per 4 (25000/100000): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/648537184571490304/unknown.png # holocaust: survivors all studies of holocaust survivors have found non-increased or decreased suicide rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/647605239620435968/review_survivor.png full Holocaust survivors have non-elevated suicide risk while partial Holocaust survivors (emigres) have elevated suicide risks: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/648550196791214111/survivors.png # suicide rate vs slaves the completed suicide rate among slaves was ~.72 per 100,000 in the USA in 1850: There are a few sources that provide numbers. Lester includes a table of suicide rates calculated from the 1850 census. 180 According to this, slaves in 1850 had a suicide rate of .72 per 100,000 while whites had a rate of 2.37 and freed slaves a rate of 1.15. P. D. Escott searched Federal Writer's Project Slave Narratives and documented resistance. In his list, which included a total of 413 incidents of resistance, there were seven incidents of suicide. This leaves suicide to account for 1.2% of incidents of resistance. suicide among black people is diminished by religiosity and self-perception: However, today there are some black churches which teach that suicide is an unredeemable act. This teaching appears to have developed after Reconstruction but was very likely affected by attitudes toward suicide that trace back to slavery. In the early 1990s, Kevin Early conducted a sociological survey among black churches in Gainesville, Florida, and established that black pastors tend to view suicide as an unredeemable act. “The overall condemnation of suicide as sin remains clear. Terminal or painful disease is no excuse for giving up. It merely enhances the quality of life through struggle. After all, struggling is inherently part of the black experience.” 185 Early establishes that while pastors condemn both suicide and criminal behavior, they tend to label individuals involved in typical property and violent crimes, including homicide, as victims of their environment. They argue that parents were too hard on children, society did not offer them the same benefits as white families, and they did not have good economic or educational opportunities. 186 In contrast, when they discussed suicide, it was uniformly condemned as “sinful” and the belief was proposed that “adversity can be overcome without resorting to suicide.” 187 Blacks described themselves as “able to endure more hardship without succumbing to the despair and despondency that lead to suicide.” 188 Along that same idea, “African Americans view themselves as being more religious, more spiritual than their white counterparts, and more able to endure hardship.” #####c ##### # transgender bathroom: no increase in assault or sex crimes following non-discrimination ordinances #####o # causal evidence: no increase from gipandos Hasenbuch et al 2018: localities in Massachusetts that adopted GIPANDOs ("discrimination on gender identity banned in public accomodations") had no increase in reports of (assault, sex crimes, voyeurism) in (public restrooms, locker rooms, dressing rooms): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571059189800239132/unknown.png "gender-identity inclusive public accommodations nondiscrimination ordinances" # on media biases: even anti-trans sources admit this bias is likely quoting an anti-trans source: alleged increase in bathroom incidents may be due to media change, not policy change: Another potential limitation of our analysis is that we don't know if pressure on Target has impacted media reporting. It may be that in some areas, perhaps in conservative locales, a bias may exist to report more of the total Target incidents occurring. It could also be that in other areas a liberal bias would lead to the suppression of news stories. We have noted a tendency in some states, usually liberal ones, to not report addresses of the incident locations. This may or may not be related to media bias. # argument by lack of republican examples the North Carolina GOP was unable to find a single example of a trans person using a bathroom to sexually assault others: # specific case: Dakota Nieves xxx look for updates todo # specific debunks: Miguel Martinez 2017: Miguel Martinez raped a child in a *home* bathroom, not a single-gender bathroom: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/746836006950666292/unknown.png """What's True A transgender woman named Michelle Martinez was convicted of sexually assaulting a young daughter of a friend in a bathroom in a private home. What's False The incident did not occur in a bathroom Martinez was using because of transgender bathroom bills.""" # specific debunks: florence high school 2013: Florence High School, Colorado: "Girls 'Harassed' In School Bathroom By Transgender Student Told His Rights Trump Their Privacy" "No Recourse for Girls Harassed by Transgender Student" "Nightmare: Teen Boy Harasses Girls in Their Bathroom, Colo. School Tells Girls They Have No Rights" debunk: #####c ##### # luna younger #####o case number 15-9887 (Df-15-09887-s): # news: * * * * # pediatrician: identity Pape's info: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644709908926693376/1_pape_info.png Jennifer Pape is James/Luna (the kid) and Jude (the brother)'s pediatrician: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644709985661616168/1_pape_credentials.png Jennifer Pape (the pediatrician) stated that James/Luna (the kid) chooses to call themselves Luna: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644883623270678538/1_pape_name.png Jennifer Pape (the pediatrician) stated that James/Luna (the kid) chooses to wear girl's clothing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644883599585312768/1_pape_dress.png Jennifer Pape (the pediatrician) stated that James/Luna (the kid) identifies as a girl: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644710030758772756/1_pape_diagnosis.png # counselor: identity Ouer's info: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644883801524404273/1_ouer_info.png Rebekka Ouer is James/Luna (the kid)'s counselor: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644884075915640833/1_ouer_credentials.png Rebekka Ouer (the counselor) stated that James/Luna (the kid) identifies as a girl and chooses to wear girl's clothing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644884223148294165/1_ouer_force.png Rebekka Ouer (the counselor) stated that James/Luna (the kid) chooses to wear girl's clothing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644884434461523988/1_ouer_dresses.png Rebekka Ouer (the counselor) stated that James/Luna (the kid) was forced by the father to wear boy's clothes and go as James to a soccer meeting: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644898401149911050/1_ouer_soccer.png Rebekka Ouer (the counselor) stated that James/Luna (the kid) also appears comfortable in boy's clothes when brought by the father, but has stated otherwise: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644898998498623488/1_ouer_boysclothes.png Rebekka Ouer (the counselor) stated that James/Luna (the kid) is not currently receiving any hormone blockers and would not do so until puberty begins: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644899161174441984/1_ouer_blockers.png # transgender expert: identity Parks' info: Wesley Parks (an expert on transgender counseling) reviewed documents from Dr. Pape (the pediatrician) and Ms. Ouer (the counselor) and concluded that James/Luna (the kid) identifies as a girl: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645030505871310859/1_wesley_review.png # cps agent: identity Jasmine Jackson is the DFPS agent for one of two DFPS cases about James and Jude younger: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645031944618246144/unknown.png Jasmine Jackson (the DFPS agent) states that the principal states that she has no concerns of either child being pressured to identify with a gender: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645031966910971950/1_jasmine_principal.png Jasmine Jackson (the DFPS agent) states that the teacher states that Luna prefers to be called Luna and is not being pressured to identify as female: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645031976419459094/1_jasmine_teacher.png Jasmine Jackson (the DFPS agent) states that Jude Younger (the kid's brother) states that Luna identifies as a girl, that the dad prevents Luna from wearing girl's clothes, and that this makes him (Jude) feel sad: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645032010624139324/1_jasmine1.png Jasmine Jackson (the DFPS agent) states that James/Luna Younger (the kid) states that she chooses to identify as a girl, that Anne (the mom) lets her choose how to identify and dress, that Jeffrey (the dad) prevents her from wearing girl's clothes, and that she (Luna) is sometimes afraid of Jeffrey: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645032010624139324/1_jasmine1.png # custody evaluator: identity Benjamin Albritton (the custody evaluator for Younger and Georgulas) agreed that James/Luna (the kid) had gender dysphoria and identified as a girl: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645247249127047178/1_albritton.png # mother: ideology Anne Georgulas (the mom) claims she wishes James/Luna (the kid) was not transgender: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645993872702308373/3_prefer.png Anne Georgulas (the mom) claims she did not allow James/Luna (the kid) to wear dresses outside of the home for several years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645993872702308373/3_prefer.png # dad: christianity Jeffrey Younger (the dad) claims his religion does not affect his treatment of his children: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645994183760281600/2_faith_1.png Jeffrey Younger (the dad) claims that taking James/Luna (the kid) to school as a girl is against his religious values: If I take him to school, I have to take him as a girl, since it's totally against my religious beliefs to affirm him as a girl, that's against my own understanding of the science, and it's actually just an affront to my common sense, and it's a complete assault on the customs and practices of the people of Texas, which are, we are an ancient people in this country. Jeffrey Younger (the dad) claims he wants to teach James/Luna (the kid) about traditional Christian gender norms: I cannot try to convince my son that he's a boy. That means I've been unable to teach him traditional Christian teachings on sexuality and gender and I can't let it go to Sunday school because my church pretty much teaches it that way. # dad: clothing Jeffrey Younger (the dad) claimed he told CPS that he would allow James/Luna (the kid) to wear boys or girls' clothes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645997927348830249/2_dress_5.png Jeffrey Younger (the dad) claims he only has boy's clothes, and not girl's clothes, at his house, because he doesn't allow his boys to wear girl's clothes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645997984756137984/2_dress_2.png Jeffrey Younger (the dad) told Anne (the mother) that he would not send his kid to soccer in girl's clothes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/645997950581080074/2_dress_1.png # dad: haircut Jeffrey Younger (the dad) admits he violated a court order preventing him from cutting James/Luna's (the kid's) hair without permission of the amicus (neutral) attorney: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/646008313552568350/2_hair.png James/Luna (the kid) wore a long-hair Elsa (Frozen character) hat 24/7 at both their mom's house and their dad's house: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/646380925692936193/4_hair.png # dad: clinic Jeffrey Younger (the dad) claims he currently has no problem with the GENECis clinic: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/638463971925426196/unknown.png Jeffrey Younger (the dad) also delayed meeting with the GENECis clinic for over two years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/638463273989046292/unknown.png Jeffrey Younger (the dad) claims GENECis clinic performs SRS: The GENECis Clinic, and they do sex change operations on children in Dallas, Texas. the clinic does not perform SRS: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/637069283746119680/unknown.png While the GENECIS program provides gender affirming care, it does not perform gender affirming surgery. # dad: donations GoGetFunding: $92,243: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/646000142595653642/2_getfunding.png GoFundMe: $47,972: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/646000140938772510/2_gofundme.png Average divorce cost in Texas with issues with kids: $23,500 over 14 months: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/646021634112880680/2_lawyercost.png Marriage annulled 18 October 2016: # video the kid was 3.5 years old at the time; they are now 7: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnLwbu4npp4 transcript: """Jeffrey Younger (dad): You’re a boy right?""""""James/Luna Younger (kid): No, I’m a girl.""""""Dad: Who told you you’re a girl?""""""Kid: Mommy.""""""Dad: When did she tell you you're a girl?""""""Kid: I love girls.""""""Dad: So mommy told you you're a girl?""""""Kid: Uh-uh [yes].""""""Dad: Does mommy do anything else like a girl with you?""""""Kid: Mm-hm [yes].""""""Dad: Like what?""""""Kid: Like dresses.""""""Dad: What does she do?""""""Kid: Puts them on me.""""""Dad: She puts dresses on you?""""""Kid: [nods]""""""Dad: And what else does she do?""""""Kid: She buys my headbands. And she gives me hairclips.""""""Dad: Ok. What else?""""""Kid: [unclear]""""""Dad: What else?""""""Kid: [unclear]""""""Dad: Does she do anything with your fingers?""""""Kid: Yeah.""""""Dad: What?""""""Kid: She paints my nails.""""""Dad: Why does she do that?""""""Kid: Cuz I like nail polish.""""""Dad: So mommy puts you in a dress and puts nail polish on you. And what does mommy tell you?""""""Kid: She tells me I'm a girl.""""""Dad: Do you think you're a girl?""""""Kid: Uh-huh [yes].""""""Dad: Is that why you wear this [towel around kid's head], so you can have long hair?""""""Kid: Mm-hm [yes].""""""Dad: Ok.""" #####c #####c ##### # # sexuality # #####o ##### # sex itself #####o # sex quality: orgasm reaching orgasm is very important for women's sexual satisfaction: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566038376164360193/unknown.png # sex quality: partner feeling respected and close to one's partner is very important for sexual satisfaction: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566027276509249546/unknown.png being excited by and comfortable with one's partner is very important for sexual satisfaction: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566027579031552010/unknown.png # sex quality: maps orgasm rates by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566024941170851840/unknown.png weekly sex rates by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566026504400666625/unknown.png exciting sex rates by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566027933467148305/unknown.png # attraction both men and women prefer romantic imagery to sexual imagery, but women prefer romantic imagery over sexual imagery moreso than men do (SOS = sexuality, DBLS = romantic): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/618501721282314250/unknown.png bad study -- every female shot is a photo shoot, every male shot is a normal photo ("Happy Guys Finish Last: The Impact of Emotion Expressions on Sexual Attraction"): compare these: http://www.ubc-emotionlab.ca/emotionattraction/Sample%20A%20Female%20Happy.jpg http://www.ubc-emotionlab.ca/emotionattraction/Sample%20A%20Male%20Happy.jpg and compare these: http://www.ubc-emotionlab.ca/emotionattraction/Sample%20B+C%20Female%20Happy.jpg http://www.ubc-emotionlab.ca/emotionattraction/Sample%20B+C%20Male%20Happy.jpg # happiness the happiness benefits of additional sex decrease with frequency of sex: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565905175206821888/unknown.png #####c ##### # dick size #####o Veale 2015: worldwide dick size distribution: lower 10% is 10 cm (3.9 in), median 50th is 13 cm (5.1 in), upper 90% is 16 cm (6.3 in): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664849893709447178/unknown.png ^ website using Veale data: #####c ##### # relationships #####o # happiness regardless of frequency of sex, romantic relationships result in increased happiness: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565905551851126824/unknown.png # stress when relationship-havers are stressed, they react more than usual to relationship experiences: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641082114649096205/unknown.png # divorce reasons people get divorced: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640933129720430610/Divorce_cause.png # cohabitation women with prior cohabitation marriages (PC marriage) report higher lifetime rates of violence that lead to physical injury, psychopathology, altered psyche, anger, drug use, or removal from daily activities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664637469148315650/unknown.png n=12,300 women, 702 with partner violence reports """Partner violence includes acts of physical assault (being pushed, grabbed or shoved; being slapped, being choked; having something thrown that could hurt; being hit with something that could hurt; being threatened with or having a knife or gun used; being kicked, bit or hit with a fist; being beaten up), psychological aggression (being threatened to hit with his fist or anything else that could hurt), and sexual coercion (being forced into any sexual activity by being threatened, held down, or hurt in some way).""" # casual sex among straight single college students of both genders, casual sex in the past month correlated with lower well-being, lower life satisfaction, higher depression, and higher social anxiety: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/655761086100013067/unknown.png n=3907, casual sex=whether "during the past 30 days they had sex with someone they knew for less than a week" among sexually active high school students, after a six-month follow-up, among boys casual sex didn't correlate with psychological well-being, but among girls some categories of casual sex correlated with some categories of lower psychological well-being: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/655767216192487425/unknown.png n=2304, FWB = "sexual contact with your best friend or a friend", ONS = "sexual contact with an acquaintance or with a stranger" # makeup the most (perceived-as) effective romantic makeup methods are communication, apologing, forgiving, spending time together, compromising; men prefer "nice gestures", "giving sexual favors"; women prefer "spending time together", "crying", and "apologizing": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636514003601981462/unknown.png successful marriages require paying attention to your partner: These bidding interactions had profound effects on marital well-being. Couples who had divorced after a six-year follow up had “turn-toward bids” 33 percent of the time. Only three in ten of their bids for emotional connection were met with intimacy. The couples who were still together after six years had “turn-toward bids” 87 percent of the time. Nine times out of ten, they were meeting their partner’s emotional needs. #####c ##### # incels #####o in the past decade, there's been a substantial decrease (1/6 to 1/3) of men not having sex in a given year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/562575203264233483/4C7SSBIXSNFCLOJIGCWUOKDYTY.png women with low financial and health concerns are more likely to prefer masculine men; women with high financial and health concerns are more likely to reject masculine men: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640238138605961227/unknown.png Factor 1, which we labelled "condition", showed positive loadings for self-rated attractiveness (.88) and self-reported health (.55), as well as a small negative loading for financial worries (−.28); factor 2 showed a positive loading on financial worries (.77), a small negative loading on health (−.25) and a small positive loading on disgust (.23), and was labelled "concerns". Americans are not much more promiscuous today than they were in the 1940's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640933798443220992/unknown.png beyond the first, additional lifetime sexual partners is not significantly associated with marital happiness (until 10+ partners); the difference between 1 and 2 sexual partners is smaller than the difference caused by a college degree: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640934176568115218/unknown.png very few people have a high number of sexual partners: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640934302594498571/DqIyMm0UUAAldD2.png #####c ##### # homosexuality / nonheterosexuality #####o # demography and trends over time: uk most youth in the UK are not purely heterosexual or homosexual: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/509201736041234442/unknown.png # demography and trends over time: usa 1/3 of youth inthe USA are not purely heterosexual or homosexual: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/680789800269250628/kinseyUS.png most Generation Z in the USA are not purely heterosexual or homosexual (small sample size): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641984124457844746/WEB_160307_sxsw_-01.png # affirmation improves gay lives same-sex marriage reduces gay suicides: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641984263259947008/9f005b9e-0069-11e7-9bf2-c9309a4a316c-780x780.png Among the 762,678 students (mean [SD] age, 16.0 [1.2] years; 366,063 males and 396,615 females) who participated in the YRBSS between 1999 and 2015, a weighted 8.6% of all high school students and 28.5% of students who identified as sexual minorities reported suicide attempts before implementation of same-sex marriage policies. Same-sex marriage policies were associated with a 0.6–percentage point (95% CI, –1.2 to –0.01 percentage points) reduction in suicide attempts, representing a 7% relative reduction in the proportion of high school students attempting suicide owing to same-sex marriage implementation. The association was concentrated among students who were sexual minorities. # homosexuality and masculinity-femininity women who report greater levels of homosexuality also report higher levels of childhood and adulthood masculinity, and also perform more masculine-ly: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/719544976047865866/unknown.png """[A]dulthood masculinityfemininity was reported by all 67 women with the 10-item Continuous Gender Identity Scale, which exhibits modest to strong correlates with other measures of reported and observed masculinity-femininity (Rieger et al., 2008; Rieger et al., 2010). Statements included: “Most people see me as more masculine than other women” and “My mannerisms are less feminine than those of other women.” Answers were given on 7-point scales, ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree). Item-reliability (Cronbach’s alpha) was .91. Responses to items were averaged and higher scores represented greater masculinity.""" # affirmation self-reported homophobia correlates with risky sexual behavior in black gay men: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636635004750921728/unknown.png # mark regnereus new family structures study (nfss) is bad [unformatted reread] [unformatted reread] [unformatted reread] # abuse rates sexuality (straight, bisexual, gay-lesbian) and intimate partner violence (IPV): differences are only significant between bisexual women and straight women: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/618175333014962198/unknown.png most abuse rate studies are terrible: Probably the most difficult methodological obstacle in studying same-sex intimate violence is obtaining a representative sample; even studies based on large samples typically have used nonrandom sampling methods, with respondent recruitment often occurring through gay and lesbian publications, organizations, and activities [6]. Two studies with better methodology reported prevalence estimates of 25% and 17% for ever having experienced physical victimization in a lesbian relationship 12, 13; these figures are comparable to figures for heterosexual relationships. # causes of homosexuality the gay gene doesn't exist: However, the search for genes contributing to homosexuality, which started 25 years ago, has been largely unsuccessful. Although a recentlarge genome-wide association study (GWAS) by Sanders et al. (2015) has documented two chromosomal regions associated with male homosexuality (one X-linked, the other on autosome 8), which has resolved some conflicting results obtained from earlier attempts (Bailey et al.,1999; Hamer etal.,1993;Huetal.,1995;Mustanskietal.,2005;Ramagopalan, Dyment, Handunneththi, Rice, & Ebers, 2010; Rice, Anderson, Risch, & Ebers, 1999), both these regions have a small effect sizes and low power in predicting homosexual versus heterosexual orientation. Collectively, GWAS thus indicate that there are nomajor genes contributing to male homosexuality. No comparable studies on female homosexuality exist. additional older brothers correlates with homosexuality, suggesting homosexuality may be increased by maternal biology: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566408295607173125/unknown.png homosexuality may partially be heritable: # removal from the DSM gay activism, Kinsey's research, and changing beliefs all caused the APA to remove homosexuality from the DSM in 1973 (58% vote): # anal sex does appear to increase incontinence Markland 2016: among 6150 adults in the NHNES, higher reported fecal incontinence correlated with reported anal sex, higher age, depression, and loose stool consistency: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/702203188341899295/unknown.png """After multivariable adjustment for other factors associated with fecal incontinence, anal intercourse remained a predictor of fecal incontinence among women (POR: 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0–2.0) and men (POR: 2.8; 95% CI: 1.6–5.0).""" Geynisman-Tan 2018: among 1003 women, those who reported having had anal sex also reported higher fecal incontinence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/702204556917997578/unknown.png """Of women who engaged in API, 18% reported it changed their stool consistency, and 10% reported it caused AI. Having engaged in API within the last month was correlated with higher FISI scores (P = 0.05) and with fecal incontinence on the FISI (28.3% vs 14.4%; P = 0.01; odds ratio, 2.48).""" #####c ##### # parenting #####o # happiness parents are often less happy than non-parents; most of this is explained by social policies like parental leave and subsidized child care: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/570855599844360192/parents.png # punishment harsh punishments of children in education increase internalization of poor mental health: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636488559855009794/unknown.png parent training significantly improves child behavior, but less so for economically disadvantaged families: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/588301113233768448/unknown.png The results from moderator analyses give insight into pragmatic considerations in using parent training. For example, individually delivered parent training is far superior to group delivered parent training in helping families facing economic disadvantage. Also, there is no support for including supplements to basic parent training and parent training seems to be robust against age effects. #####c ##### # gay parenting #####o # meta-study Zhang et al 2023: among 16 studies on the topic, gay and straight families had similar measurable parenting outcomes: [todo] Family outcome disparities between sexual minority and heterosexual families: a systematic review and meta-analysis """Results Thirty-four articles were included. The narrative synthesis results revealed several significant findings for children’s gender role behaviour and gender identity/sexual orientation outcomes. Overall, 16 of 34 studies were included in the meta-analyses. The quantitative synthesis results suggested that sexual minority families may perform better in children’s psychological adjustment and parent–child relationship than heterosexual families (standardised mean difference (SMD) −0.13, 95% CI −0.20 to −0.05; SMD 0.13, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.20), but not couple relationship satisfaction (SMD 0.26, 95% CI −0.13 to 0.64), parental mental health (SMD 0.00, 95% CI −0.16 to 0.16), parenting stress (SMD 0.01, 95% CI −0.20 to 0.22) or family functioning (SMD 0.18, 95% CI −0.11 to 0.46).""" # Invisible Victims: Delayed Onset Depression among Adults with Same-Sex Parents sullins' study: sullins counted any child who ever lived in a household headed by a gay person as a child growing up in a same-sex household -- including single or divorced parents: Sullins achieves this through a crucial elision between households in which a child spent some time in a home headed by a same-sex couple and families in which a child was actually raised, from birth, by a stable same-sex couple, a situation more auspicious for healthy child development. This conflation of household stability with parent gender fatally mars his conclusions, which are much more damning of gay and lesbian parenting than are warranted by his data. [....] This descriptor, of course, is the key variable in the discourse on optimal child-rearing because of the well-established fact that children who experience divorce or other family disruptions are at higher risk for a number of disadvantages, including the ones that Sullins inaccurately associates with “same-sex parented” households. What Sullins has done makes no more sense than surveying a hospital to derive mortality rates. It is hard to imagine that Sullins does not know this and equally hard to watch his misleading findings get past peer review. # gay parenting the American Psychological Association believes sexuality is not a significant predictor of parenting outcomes: On the basis of this comprehensive review of the literature regarding the development and adjustment of children whose parents are the same gender, as well as the existing evidence for the legal, social, and health benefits of marriage to children, the AAP concludes that it is in the best interests of children that they be able to partake in the security of permanent nurturing and care that comes with the civil marriage of their parents, without regard to their parents’ gender or sexual orientation. 75 studies demonstrate that same-sex couples and different-sex couples produce roughly equivalent children: A 2010 study by Stanford researcher Michael Rosenfeld used census data to examine the school advancement of 3,500 children with same-sex parents, finding no significant differences between households headed by same-sex and opposite-sex parents when controlling for family background. Another study drew on nationally representative, longitudinal data using a sampling pool of over 20,000 children, of which 158 lived in a same-sex parent household. Controlling for family disruptions, those children showed no significant differences from their peers in school outcomes. in meta-analysis, two dads vs two moms was insignificant: A third potential explanation, based on theories of gender development (Leaper & Friedman, 2007; McHale, Crouter, & Whiteman, 2003), has to do with the presence of a parent of the same or opposite gender as the child. There was, however, no support for this explanation. Children raised by gay fathers were no different than children raised by lesbian mothers, and the differences associated with parent sexual orientation did not vary between boys and girls. in meta-analysis, same-sex parents appear to do worse on some indicators (internalizing, externalizing, social competence, academic competence) and better on others (positive relationships, parental warmth), but the data is usually of such poor quality that no reliable conclusions can be drawn (the moderator effects have larger size than the effect size): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/587971826961874951/unknown.png #####c ##### # men's rights #####o # child custody and family court over a decade in Wisconsin, mother sole custody went 60% to 46% while equal custody went 16% to 31%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/560345358488698890/unknown.png over two decades in Wisconsin, mother sole custody declined from 80% to 42%, equal custody rose from 5% to 27% of all cases, and father sole custody fell from 11% to 9%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640202532626497546/13524_2014_307_Fig1_HTML.png 91% of custody cases are decided without court involvement, and 70% are decided without a third party: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/560348667425456168/unknown.png 51% agreed on their own 29% settled without third party involvement 11% decided during mediation 5% resolved differences after a custody evaluation 4% went to trial (of the 4% that initiated litigation, only 1.5% actually completed it) many states are adopting or considering equal or shared custody laws: # child support delinquent mothers are more common than delinquent fathers, but impoverished mothers are also more common than impoverished fathers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640204984297848832/chalabi-datalab-childsupport-11.png In 2011, 32 percent of custodial fathers didn’t receive any of the child support that had been awarded to them, compared with 25.1 percent of custodial mothers. # paternity testing laws are changing: In 2002 the National Conference of Commissioners on Uniform State Laws — an influential body of lawyers and judges that proposes model laws — drafted a compromise. The proposal would allow the presumed father, the biological father or the mother to challenge the paternity until a child turns 2. The proposal had two goals: to balance the rights of children with those of their presumed fathers and to encourage parentage questions to be raised early in a child’s life, before deep bonds are formed. Several states, including Delaware, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming, have adopted that model or a variation of it. # dropout rates 2017: male high school completion 89.1%, female 90.0%; male bachelor's degree completion 33.7%, female 34.6%: 2010 starting cohort: male 5-year college completion 52.0%, female 59.0%: college 1970: 41.2% female, 1980: 51.4% female, 1990: 54.5% female, 2000: 56.1% female, 2010: 57.0% female, 2020: 56.7% female: 2016: male high school dropouts 7.1%, female 5.1%; 1970: male high school dropouts 14.2, female 15.7: # work fatalities fatality rate by work type: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640200852405092370/unknown.png # crime: females receive significantly lighter sentences than males due to biases in each stage of prosecution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640201647066447882/unknown.png # the draft men born in 1953 were the last to face conscription -- in 2019, that's age 66 -- and prosecution for Selective Service System violations were suspended in 1988: congress recently appointed a commission to consider inclusion of women in the draft (or abolishment): # intimate partner violence compared with men who experience IPV, women who experience IPV are much more likely to be raped, physically assaulted, and stalked; time from work, suffer more injuries, and are more likely to use the medical, mental, and justice systems: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644190873608912904/unknown.png #####c ##### # pornography #####o # aggression: meta-study Ferguson 2020: Bauserman 1996: reviewing dozens of correlational studies, there was no evidence for a link between sexual aggression and nonviolent pornography use; suggests "social learning" theory: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/849011713998192670/unknown.png # satisfaction: meta-study Wright 2017: across 37 effect sizes with 46524 participants, interpersonal satisfaction (romantic satisfaction and sexual satisfaction) correlated negatively (r=-0.1) with pornography usage frequency: Wright 2017: across 20 effect sizes with 12427 participants, intrapersonal satisfaction (body satisfaction and self satisfaction) was uncorrelated with pornography usage frequency: # relationship quality: qualitative Kohut 2016: positive perceived impacts of porn in relationships were more common than negative; 430 nonrepresentative respondents in a heterosexual relationship gave 3963 responses to 42 open-ended questions; of those responses, researchers categorized 621 as "no negative effects" (the most common), 353 "source of information", 343 "sexual experimentation" 299 "sexual communication", 167 "alternative outlet", 114 "positive affect", 114 "unrealistic expectations", 112 "sexual comfort", and the 103 "decreased interest in sex", 103 "personal insecurity": # sexism: correlational Kohut 2015: among 25047 Americans, relative to nonusers, porn users agreed with significantly fewer sexist statements (that women shouldn't be able to hold positions of power, work outside the home, or get abortions): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/661283361498857522/unknown.png #####c ##### # circumcision #####o # abbreviations MC = male circumcision NMC = neonatal male circumcision VMMC = voluntary male medical circumcision AAP = American Academy of Pediatrics BMA = British Medical Association CPS = Canadian Paediatric Society CDC = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention UNAIDS = Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS WHO = World Health Organization # todo Morris 2019: Critical evaluation of arguments opposing male circumcision: A systematic review Bailis 2019: Critical Evaluation of a Survey Claiming “Long-Term Adverse Outcomes from Neonatal Circumcision” # scientific consensus: organizations in favor for HIV-AIDS prevention list: WHO-UNAIDS, CDC WHO-UNAIDS 2007: """Male circumcision is one of the oldest and most common surgical procedures worldwide, and is undertaken for many reasons: religious, cultural, social and medical. There is conclusive evidence from observational data and three randomized controlled trials that circumcised men have a significantly lower risk of becoming infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).""" WHO-UNAIDS 2007: """The UN agencies emphasize that male circumcision does not provide complete protection against HIV infection. It should never replace other known effective prevention methods and should always be considered as part of a comprehensive prevention package, which includes correct and consistent use of male or female condoms, reduction in the number of sexual partners, delaying the onset of sexual relations, and HIV testing and counselling."""" WHO-UNAIDS 2010: """WHO/UNAIDS recommendations emphasize that male circumcision should be considered an efficacious intervention for HIV prevention in countries and regions with heterosexual epidemics, high HIV and low male circumcision prevalence. Male circumcision provides only partial protection, and therefore should be only one element of a comprehensive HIV prevention package which includes: the provision of HIV testing and counseling services; treatment for sexually transmitted infections; the promotion of safer sex practices; the provision of male and female condoms and promotion of their correct and consistent use.""" WHO-UNAIDS 2020: """Since 2007 the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) have recommended voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as an important strategy for the prevention of heterosexually acquired HIV in men in settings where the prevalence of heterosexually transmitted HIV is high. Over 25 million men and adolescent boys in East and Southern Africa have been reached with VMMC services.""" CDC 2018: supports parental choice, supports insurance, recommends that medical professionals inform uncircumcised men that circumcision protects against STIs including HIV: # scientific consensus: organizations in favor for parental choice list: AAP, BMA, CPS, NIH AAP 1975 Report of the Ad Hoc Task Force on Circumcision: circumcision is not medically necessary for neonates; therefore, the decision should be left to parents: """Existing scientific evidence demonstrates potential medical benefits of newborn male circumcision; however, these data are not sufficient to recommend routine neonatal circumcision. In circumstances in which there are potential benefits and risks, yet the procedure is not essential to the child's current well-being, parents should determine what is in the best interest of the child. To make an informed choice, parents of all male infants should be given accurate and unbiased information and be provided the opportunity to discuss this decision. If a decision for circumcision is made, procedural analgesia should be provided.""" AAP 1989 Report of the Task Force on Circumcision: circumcision may have medical benefits, but remains an elective procedure that should be left to parents: """Since the 1975 report, new evidence has suggested possible medical benefits from newborn circumcision. [....] Newborn circumcision has potential medical benefits and advantages as well as disadvantages and risks. When circumcision is being considered, the benefits and risks should be explained to the panents and informed consent obtained.""" AAP 1999 Circumcision Policy Statement: """Existing scientific evidence demonstrates potential medical benefits of newborn male circumcision; however, these data are not sufficient to recommend routine neonatal circumcision.""" AAP 2012 Circumcision Policy Statement: """the procedure’s benefits justify access to this procedure for families who choose it.""" NIH 2019: """The merits of circumcision have been debated. Opinions about the need for circumcision in healthy boys vary among health care providers. Some believe there is great value to having an intact foreskin, such as allowing for a more natural sexual response during adulthood. Rather than routinely recommending circumcision for healthy boys, many health care providers allow the parents to make the decision after presenting them with the pros and cons. There is no compelling medical rationale for the procedure in healthy boys, although some boys have a medical condition requiring circumcision.""" CPS guidance 2015: """The Canadian Paediatric Society (CPS) published a position statement in 1996 stating that circumcision was not recommended as a routine procedure for male newborns because the benefits and harms were evenly balanced.""" """Because the medical risk:benefit ratio of routine newborn male circumcision is closely balanced when current research is reviewed (Table 1), it is challenging to make definitive recommendations for the entire male newborn population in Canada. For some boys, the likelihood of benefit is higher and circumcision could be considered for disease reduction or treatment.""" """The CPS does not recommend the routine circumcision of every newborn male.""" BMA guidance 1996: BMA guidance 2004: """The medical harms or benefits have not been unequivocally proved except to the extent that there are clear risks of harm if the procedure is done inexpertly. The Association has no policy on these issues. Indeed, it would be difficult to formulate a policy in the absence of unambiguously clear and consistent medical data on the implications of the intervention. As a general rule, however, the BMA believes that parents should be entitled to make choices about how best to promote their children’s interests, and it is for society to decide what limits should be imposed on parental choices.""" BMA guidance 2006: """The medical harms or benefits have not been unequivocally proven but there are clear risks of harm if the procedure is done inexpertly. The Association has no policy on these issues. Indeed, it would be difficult to formulate a policy in the absence of unambiguously clear and consistent medical data on the implications of the intervention. As a general rule, however, the BMA believes that parents should be entitled to make choices about how best to promote their children’s interests, and it is for society to decide what limits should be imposed on parental choices.""" BMA guidance 2019: """The BMA has never taken a position in the debate about the acceptability or otherwise of NTMC. Instead, as with other procedures involving children who lack the capacity to consent, we have made clear that those wishing to authorise the procedure for their children need to demonstrate that it is in the child’s best interests.""" # incidence of circumcision: united states CDC 2013: incidence of neonatal circumcision before hospital discharge dropped from ~65% in 1980 to ~55% in 2010; however, this trend is driven entirely by decreases in the West (which is likely due to increasing Hispanic population): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/858025330894569502/unknown.png """Note that these estimates do not include circumcisions performed outside the hospital setting (e.g., ritual circumcisions) or those performed at any age following discharge from the birth hospitalization. Thus, these rates cannot be used as prevalence estimates for all male circumcisions in the United States.""" Jacobson: among 8.8 million boys in the Kid's Inpatient Database from 2003-2016, circumcision rates varied mostly by region, insurance, and ethnicity, and increased overall slightly from 43.6% in 2003 to 48.9% in 2016: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/858042335325061151/unknown.png Morris 2014: xxx Many 2020: xxx # prevalence of circumcision: africa Cork 2020: map of circumcision prevalence by country, administrative region, and 5km cell: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860571833353895946/unknown.png ^ Dwyer-Lindgren 2019: map of HIV prevalence by country, administrative region, and 5km cell: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860572787529482240/unknown.png # prevalence of circumcision: worldwide WHO 2007: approximately 30-33% of men worldwide are circumcised (data assumes that Jews and Muslims have 100% circumcision rate, then adds nonreligious circumcision): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/858022547634651188/unknown.png """We have estimated the global prevalence of circumcision among males aged 15 years or over by first assuming that all Muslim and Jewish males in this age group are circumcised. Then, using published data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and other sources (13, 53, 54), we estimated the number of non-Muslim and non-Jewish men circumcised in countries with substantial prevalence of nonreligious circumcision (Angola, Australia, Canada, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, Philippines, Republic of Korea, South Africa, Uganda, United Kingdom, United Republic of Tanzania and United States of America) (Table 1).""" Morris 2016: approximately 37-39% of men worldwide are circumcised (data assumes that, where MC is not measured, Jews and Muslims have 99.9% circumcision rate): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/858021053225762856/unknown.png """The estimated percentage of circumcised males in each country and territory varies considerably. Based on [CIA population and sex ratio data] and [United Nations population and sex ratio data], global MC prevalence was 38.7 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 33.4, 43.9) and 36.7 % (95 % CI: 31.4, 42.0). Approximately half of circumcisions were for religious and cultural reasons. For countries lacking data we assumed 99.9 % of Muslims and Jews were circumcised. If actual prevalence in religious groups was lower, then MC prevalence in those countries would be lower. On the other hand, we assumed a minimum prevalence of 0.1 % related to MC for medical reasons. This may be too low, thereby underestimating MC prevalence in some countries.""" # motivation: mostly tied to parental circumcision status (not valid reason) Rediger 2013: the best predictor of whether a child will be circumcised is whether father was circumcised: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/859911711157911613/F2.png ^ Rediger 2013: this is despite the fact that few respondents (less than 10% of both circumcised nad uncircumcised) explicitly give this as the most important reason: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/859911469336100884/unknown.png # adverse events from neonatal circumcision el Bcheraoui 2014: among a sample of 2.3 million males between 2001 to 2014; adverse events (AEs) numbered 5385 for circumcised (5385/1306812 = 0.41%, 1 in 243) and 1100 for uncircumcised (1100/1032948 = 0.011%, 1 in 939) males; https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/857703585907081246/poi130107t1.png note: 1 person can have more than 1 AE; 93% were neonatally circumcised; n_circumcised = 1306812, n_uncircumcised = 1032948; """Our data suggest that the rate of AEs associated with newborn circumcision is less than 0.5%. Most important, the incidence of AEs increased substantially when MC occurred after the first year of life. [....] Our findings also suggest that many AEs, such as penile reconstruction, pneumothorax, and infections, occur less frequently in circumcised males, perhaps due to a healthy infant bias: those newborns who undergo MC are more likely to be healthier (and without such disorders) compared with their uncircumcised counterparts. [....] Compared with boys circumcised at younger than 1 year, the incidences of probable AEs were approximately 20-fold and 10-fold greater for males circumcised at age 1 to 9 years and at 10 years or older, respectively.""" # neonatal deaths from circumcision NYT 2012: circumcision neonatal deaths are extremely rare; the CDC observed zero circumcision deaths nationwide in 2010: """By one estimate, put forth by Dan Bollinger, a prominent opponent of circumcision, based on his review of infant mortality statistics, about 117 boys die each year as a result of circumcision. That estimate is cited often by critics of routine circumcision but widely disputed by medical professionals. A spokeswoman for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the agency did not keep track of deaths from infant circumcision because they are exceedingly rare. In the agency’s last mortality report, which looked at all deaths in the country in 2010, no circumcision-related deaths were found.""" AAP 1989: between 1954 and 1989, among ~50 million circumcisions, just three deaths due to male circumcision were reported (yielding 0.06 deaths per million): """The exact incidence of postoperative complications is unknown,50 but large series indicate that the rate is low, approximately 0.2% to 0.6%.44,45,51,52 The most common complications are local infection and bleeding. Deaths attributable to newborn dircumcision are rare; there were no deaths in 500 000 circumcisions in New York City52 or in 175 000 circumcisions in US Army hospitals.51 A communication published in 1979 reported one death in the United States due to circumcision in 1973, and the authors' review of the literature during the previous 25 years documented two previous deaths due to this procedure.53""" Wiswell 1989: among 1.95 million circumcisions studied between 1970 and 1989, just one death from male circumcision was reported (yielding 0.51 deaths per million): """As previously mentioned, Speert found only one death in a population of more than one-half million circumcised boys. King8 reported 500,000 consecutive neonatal circumcisions performed without fatality. We have reviewed the records of more than 300,000 boys circumcised in US Army hospitals from 1970 to 1986 (unpublished data), and no boys have died as a consequence of the procedure. Finally, there have been no reported deaths due to the operation among more than 650,000 boys circumcised in the state of Texas since 1971 (5. Trevino, Texas Department of Health, Austin, personal communication, March 16, 1987).""" Wiswell 1989: among 1.2 million yearly circumcisions, authors assert that no more than 3 deaths from male circumcision occur (yielding 2.5 deaths per million, no data source given): """Although it has been claimed that there may be as many as several hundred deaths from circumcision in the United States29 each year (“The Phil Donahue Show,” NBC Television, June 17, 1987), we can find evidence for no more than two to three deaths per year that can be attributed to the procedure among the more than 1,200,000 boys that are circumcised." # neonatal deaths from circumcision: bad studies Elhaik 2019: male neonatal circumcision (MNC) positively correlates with sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) deaths per capita (no controls used, no causality demonstrated): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/857700716311478282/jclintranslres-4-136-g003.png # hiv infection rates and circumcision Frisch 2013: AAP 2013 response: WHO: circumcision reduces HIV infection: There is compelling evidence that male circumcision reduces the risk of heterosexually acquired HIV infection in men by approximately 60%. review of HIV and circumcision: He made no mention of male circumcision, yet there is now compelling epidemiological evidence from over 40 studies which shows that male circumcision provides significant protection against HIV infection; circumcised males are two to eight times less likely to become infected with HIV.2 Furthermore, circumcision also protects against other sexually transmitted infections, such as syphilis and gonorrhoea,3,4 and since people who have a sexually transmitted infection are two to five times more likely to become infected with HIV,5 circumcision may be even more protective. No new infections occurred among any of the 50 circumcised men over 30 months, whereas 40 of 137 uncircumcised men became infected during this time. Both groups had been given free access to HIV testing, intensive instruction about preventing infection, and free condoms (which were continuously available), but 89% of the men never used condoms, and condom use did not seem to influence the rate of transmission of HIV. Gao 2021: Yuan 2019: Farley 2020: Sharma 2017: Kennedy 2020: # sti infection rates and circumcision # neonatal urinary tract infections and circumcision Schoen 2000: circumcised males are significantly less likely to get urinary tract infections (UTI): among 20587 males (9668 circumcised and 5225 not) born in 1997 in Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program of Northern California, 2.15% (1 in 47) of uncircumcised males and 0.22% (1 in 445) of circumcised males were diagnosed with a UTI: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/857723077505187881/unknown.png # psychological harms: earp et al xxx Miani 2020: xxx Earp 2017: xxx #####c ##### # sexual assault and sexual harassment #####o # causes: hostility towards women negative views towards women increase sexual assault: people who increased hostility towards women during college commit more assaults later in college; those who decrease hostility towards women commit less assaults later in college: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/495032125389799446/unknown.png antisocial behavior and poor self-control (which are correlated with negative attitudes towards women) are associated with increased sexual assault (though not hostility with women itself): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/498541004530515968/unknown.png # prevention todo: meta-study DeGue et al 2014: # efficacy of sexual assault training: positive Salazar et al 2014: among 743 male undergraduates, after 6-month followup bystander intervention training was effective at increasing knowledge of sexual assault's wrongness and at reducing (self-reported) sexual assaults: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/495032777843146764/de70ff2d7e7945359aa7bf87a4d2fea9.png # efficacy of sexual harassment training: mixed Cortina and Berdahl 2008: literature review: sexual harassment training does seem to have positive effects, but it's not clear how long they persist or which programs are most effective: """One longitudinal study, however, did document an increase in internal sexual harassment complaints following companywide training (Magley et al., 1997). What else do sexual harassment training programs accomplish?""""""The USMSPB (1994) found that employees working in federal agencies providing sexual harassment training described less ‘uninvited and unwanted sexual attention.’ This effect was strongest for agencies that trained all employees.""""""Perry et al. (1998) showed male participants a training video on either sexual harassment or sign language, followed by a golf training video. Participants then trained a female confederate on how to putt. The researchers found that harassment training increased knowledge and reduced inappropriate touching for men with a prior propensity to sexually harass women. [....] Moreover, the short-term attitudinal changes reported by Perry et al. (1998) did not persist over the long term.""" # motive of harassers: power maintenance Cortina and Berdahl 2008: literature review: sexual harassment theory is under-studied, but current theories argue that sexually harassing men wish to preserve their systemic status: """Sexual harassers were originally assumed to be driven by a desire for sexual expression or gratification. Men’s wish to dominate or control women was later proposed to motivate sexual harassment. Research now considers a more basic motive: The desire to retain a valued social identity and attendant benefits in a system of gender hierarchy. Given that this theorizing has continued for several decades, it is striking to see how little empirical research has focused explicitly on harassers (exceptions include Bargh et al., 1995; Dekker and Barling, 1998; Perry et al., 1998; Pryor, 1987; Pryor et al., 1993). This is an important direction for future studies.""" National Academies Press 2018: literature review: motives of harassers: """Interestingly, the motivation underlying sexual coercion and unwanted sexual attention behaviors appears different from the motivation underlying gender harassment. Whereas the first two categories suggest sexual advances (the goal being sexual exploitation of women), the third category is expressing hostility toward women (the goals being insult, humiliation, or ostracism) (Holland and Cortina 2016). In other words, sexual coercion and unwanted sexual attention can be viewed as “come-ons,” while gender harassment is, for all intents and purposes, a “put-down” (Fitzgerald, Gelfand, and Drasgow 1995; Leskinen, Cortina, and Kabat 2011). However, it is important to note that these come-on behaviors are not necessarily about attraction to women; more often than not, they are instead motivated by the desire to devalue women or punish those who violate gender norms (Berdahl 2007b; Cortina and Berdahl 2008).""" McDonald 2011: literature review: biological desire models have fallen away: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1064731270896164964/image.png """Consistent with the initially recognized scenario of SH, where a male boss harasses a female subordinate, the natural-biological model proposes that SH results from natural and inevitable feelings of sexual desire expressed primarily by men towards women (Berdahl 2007). The biological model holds that SH is not actually harassment and, consequently, does not have deleterious consequences, is not sexist and is not discriminatory (Tangri et al. 1982). Unsurprisingly, this explanation has been largely dismissed in the recent literature, not least because of the lack of rigour in allowing for differential predictions of behaviour and a lack of flexibility to explain phenomena such as same-sex harassment and harassment of lower status men by women in positions of power (Foote and Goodman-Delahunty 2005).""" McDonald 2011: literature review: power models are mainstream: """In contrast to natural-biological and sex-role spillover perspectives, power models have garnered more recent attention in the literature. Although variously interpreted, in general, power perspectives suggest that the SH phenomenon arises from men’s economic power over women, which enables them to exploit and coerce women sexually (MacKinnon 1979; Zalk 1990). In early work, Brant and Too (1994) argued that the power model of SH ignored extensive evidence suggesting that harassment from peers or juniors can be more common than harassment by those in authority. However, reconciling the power model of SH with studies identifying that co-workers are frequently harassers, Samuels (2003) suggests that power from a feminist perspective is not a pure or unmediated force, but that ‘in society, the balance of power lies with men and even if women are in more senior positions they are made more vulnerable by the fact they are women’ (p. 477). Another way in which power can be conceived is within a dependency framework, where clients or customers have power vis-à-vis an employee through control over evaluations and through the dependence on the client’s business (Gettman and Gelfand 2007; Pfeffer and Salancik 2003). Recently, Popovich and Warren (2010), building on French and Raven’s (1959) typology of the bases of power (e.g. legitimate, coercive, referent), proposed a promising model of the role of power across individual, organizational and societal levels.""" # hierarchy and abuse National Academies Press 2018: literature review: hierarchical and alcohol-friendly work cultures and structures have higher rates of sexual harassment: """Other factors that research suggests increase the chances of sexual harassment perpetration are significant power differentials within hierarchical organizations and organizational tolerance of alcohol use. Hierarchical work environments like the military, where there is a large power differential between organizational levels and an expectation is not to question those higher up, tend to have higher rates of sexual harassment than organizations that have less power differential between the organizational levels, like the private sector and government (Ilies et al. 2003; Schneider, Pryor, and Fitzgerald 2011). Environments that allow drinking during work breaks and have permissive norms related to drinking are positively associated with higher levels of gender harassment of women (Bacharach, Bamberger, and McKinney 2007). Culturally, these are, again, patterns more common in currently or historically male-dominated workplaces.""" # false rape accusations discussion of FBI "false rape" or "true rape" statistics: #####c #####c ##### # # abortion and reproductive health # #####o ##### # current laws #####o # abortion restrictions 2017 abortion restrictions by state: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/725546905731334154/unknown.png ##### ##### # polling #####o # polling on abortion restrictions after dobbs WSJ 17-25 Aug 2022 n=1313: 10% favor 80% oppose banning abortion in all cases; 25% favor 60% oppose banning abortion after 6 weeks; 30% favor 55% oppose banning abortion after 15 weeks; 15% favor 85% oppose banning travelling to other states to get an abortion: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021236900889112616/unknown.png # polling on overturning roe v wade NPR 2022: 64% of Americans (and 62% of Independents) opposed overturning Roe v. Wade: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/989976409323757608/unknown.png Vox 2022: at 24 weeks, 29% say abortion should be legal, 18% say it depends, and 48% say it should be illegal: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/989977793171431424/unknown.png #####c ##### # benefits of birth control [TODO] #####o birth control really, really benefits society: birth control really, really benefits society: #####c ##### # abortion and fetal viability #####o # frequency of abortions by gestational age CDC 2021 (for 2019): 99.0% of abortions occurred before week 21; 1.0% of abortions occurred at week 21 or later: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997255152476106874/unknown.png CDC 2000 (for 1997): 98.6% of abortions occurred before week 21; 1.4% of abortions occurred at week 21 or later: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997249443952861184/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997249459115278346/unknown.png CDC 1996 (for 1992): 98.5% of abortions occurred before week 21; 1.5% of abortions occurred at week 21 or later: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997256558280982538/unknown.png CDC 1975 (for 1972): 98.3% of abortion with known gestational age occurred before week 21; 1.7% of abortions occurred at week 21 or later: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999169829615448144/unknown.png # frequency of abortions by gestational age, focus on late term abortions Guttmacher Institute 1997: in 1992, an estimated 320 (0.021%) of 1528930 abortions were conducted after the 26th week: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976234799427624980/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/995885431323373618/abortions_by_gestational_age.png Epner 1998: the above estimate is almost certainly an overestimate, but high-quality data does not exist: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976231826676912179/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976232877589164042/unknown.png # availability of abortions by gestational age Jones Ingerick Jerman 2018: in 2014, among a nationwide sample of abortion clinics, just ~30% provided services at 20 weeks and just ~15% at 24 weeks: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997241762865234050/unknown.png # cost of abortions by gestational age Jones Ingerick Jerman 2018: later abortions cost more than early abortions: in 2014, among a nationwide sample of abortion clinics, just ~30% provided services at 20 weeks and just ~15% at 24 weeks: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997243332864516106/unknown.png """In 2014, abortion patients paid an average of $508 for a surgical abortion at 10 weeks gestation, and there were notable differences according to policy climate (Table 4). The unadjusted figures suggest that women in supportive states paid more for a first-trimester surgical procedure than women in hostile states. However, the pattern was reversed when the cost of living adjustment was applied: women paid $40 more in hostile ($442) than in supportive ($402) states. Women in middle-ground states paid the most, regardless of which figure was used. Women paid an average of $535 for an EMA in 2014, $27 more than a first-trimester surgical procedure. According to figures adjusted for cost of living, this procedure cost most in hostile states ($479) and least in supportive ones ($419). On average, women paid $27 more for medication abortion at EMA-only facilities than at facilities that also offered surgical abortion. This pattern was consistent across the three policy climates, ranging from $9 more in hostile states to $35 more in supportive ones (according to the adjusted figures). Abortions at later gestational lengths require greater technical skills and resources, and, in turn, cost more (Hammond & Chasen, 2009, p. 11). In 2014, the median charge for an abortion at 20 weeks gestation was $1,195 (data not shown). Clinics in hostile states charged the most, at $1,350 (adjusted for cost of living), and clinics in supportive states charged the least, at $964; clinics in middle-ground states charged slightly less than hostile states at $1,158.""" # viability of fetuses by gestational age: background ACOG 2017: The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists defines births between 20 weeks 0 days and 25 weeks 6 days as "periviable": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997240220477030411/unknown.png """Approximately 0.5% of all births occur before the third trimester of pregnancy, and these very early deliveries result in the majority of neonatal deaths and more than 40% of infant deaths. A recent executive summary of proceedings from a joint workshop defined periviable birth as delivery occurring from 20 0/7 weeks to 25 6/7 weeks of gestation. When delivery is anticipated near the limit of viability, families and health care teams are faced with complex and ethically challenging decisions.""" Lau et al 2013: just 0.4% of all births occur before the third trimester of pregnancy (week 27 is 2nd, week 28 is 3rd); these very early births result in the majority of neonatal deaths and 45% of total infant deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/995914284590698608/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/995914382095683605/unknown.png the youngest preterm baby to ever survive was born at 21 weeks, 1 days: # viability of fetuses by gestational age: recent evidence Rysavy et al 2015: among 4704 births in a national American research hospital network from 2006-2011, a majority of fetuses survived at 24 weeks of pregnancy and a majority survived without severe neurodevelopmental impairment at 26 weeks; NDI assessed at 18 to 22 weeks corrected age, about ~1.4 years after birth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/916109603148804127/nejmoa1410689_t2.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/995885430899753050/rysavy_2015.png Stoll et al 2010: among 8515 births in a national American research hospital network from 2003-2007, a majority survived at 24 weeks and a majority survived without morbidities at 28 weeks: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/991961124205506600/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/995888756659851385/stoll_2010.png # viability of fetuses by gestational age: historical trends Mercer 2017: among very preterm births, fetal survival rates have dramatically improved from the 1960's to the 2000's; fetal survival at 26 weeks was ~10% and is now ~90%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997245253729915010/unknown.png # viability of fetuses by gestational age: international evidence in most countries, a majority of fetuses survive after 24-25 weeks of pregnancy: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/580076688621436958/F1.png in England in 2006, a majority of fetuses survive after 25 weeks of pregnancy: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/579718234555547658/F4.png # reasons for why people have late-term abortions: primarily delays in pregnancy discovery Foster Gould Biggs 2021: women who had later abortions were significantly more likely to have discovered their abortion at later gestational ages: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999515780595077230/unknown.png Greene Foster Kimport 2013: early abortion discovery is the simplest way to avoid late-term abortions: among 218 women who sought a late-term abortion for non-medical reasons, discovering their pregnancy before <8 weeks was associated with 14.2x lower likelihood of late-term abortion: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999512910495744120/unknown.png Greene Foster Kimport 2013: among 218 women who sought a late-term abortion for non-medical reasons, 94 of 218 (43%) reported facing any barrier to abortion, including not knowing about the pregnancy, trouble deciding whether to abort, disagreeing with male partner, not knowing where to go, difficulty travelling, difficulty raising money, difficulty securing insurance coverage: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999512963830534184/unknown.png ^ corrigendum: Foster and Kimport 2019: most studies examined late 2nd-trimester abortions (20-28 weeks), which likely have different motivations than third-trimetser abortions (29+ weeks): """Our article, which focuses on women seeking abortions from 20 weeks to the end of the second trimester (about 28 weeks), therefore captures most of the women having abortions after 20 weeks. Little is known about the relatively few abortions occurring in the third trimester, although late detection of fetal anomaly1, 2 and increasing incidence of maternal health complications with advanced gestation3 suggest that reasons for abortion in the third trimester may differ from those in the second.""" Foster et al 2012: among 1122 women seeking an abortion at one abortion clinic in 2008, 0.6% noted that the pregnancy resulted from rape and 0.6% noted that a fetal anomaly was present: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999511573326475384/unknown.png #####c ##### # patient reasons for abortion #####o # reasons given by patients for abortions in general the most common reasons cited for abortion are [1] dramatic life change (interfere w/ education/job/dependents), [2] can't afford baby, [3] don't want to be single mother / relationship problems, [4-5] enough children: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/681177585195286662/unknown.png young and old pregnant women are most likely to have an abortion: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641979775057002496/ss6713a1-F2.png # reasons given by patients for late-term abortions todo: todo: todo: most women who have late-term abortions have a reason to do so: """Most women seeking later abortion fit at least one of five profiles: They were raising children alone, were depressed or using illicit substances, were in conflict with a male partner or experiencing domestic violence, had trouble deciding and then had access problems, or were young and nulliparous.""" # fetal anomalies and their rates of occurrence Forrester and Merz 2005: among 281866 live births in Hawaii from 1986 to 2000, 294 (0.104%, 1 in 958) had congenital hydrocephaly; this did not account for fetal deaths or abortions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/995109790701334588/unknown.png Jeng et al 2011: among 5353022 live births in California from 1991 to 2000, 3152 (0.0589%, 1 in 1698) had congenital hydrocephaly; this did not account for fetal deaths or aboritons: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/995110465468379166/unknown.png # contraceptive use before abortion 54-51% of abortion patients reported using a contraceptive method in the month that they became pregnant: ##### # health consequences of abortion #####o # no effect of suicide non-fatal first suicide attempts were no higher after than before abortion, suggesting that abortion does not cause elevated suicide rates among women with abortions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/681208247897555107/unknown.png # mortality rate from abortion Epner 1998: abortion fatality rates from 1974-1987 rose from 28.1 per 100k at 13-15 weeks, 103 per 100k at 16-20 weeks, and 274 per 100k at >=21 weeks: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976232105426174043/unknown.png between 2008 and 2014, abortion killed 0.62 per 100,000. in 2014, pregnancy killed 23.8 per 100,000 -- 23.8/0.62=38.39x times higher: #####c ##### # consequences of bans #####o # poland before illegalization in 1990, Poland had about 100-200,000 abortions per year (adjust this to live births): A poll of Polish women suggests lifetime abortion rates of 1/3-1/4 (compared to 1/4 in the USA): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/602342144627179521/unknown.png W ciągu swojego życia ciążę przerwała, z dużym prawdopodobieństwem, nie mniej niż co czwarta, ale też nie więcej niż co trzecia dorosła Polka. W skali całego społeczeństwa daje to od 4,1 do 5,8 mln kobiet. [Not less than 1/4 but not more than 1/3 of adult Polish women have interrupted their pregnancy during their life, with high probability. On the scale of the whole society this gives between 4.1 and 5.8 million women.] Summary: It is estimated here that, as of 2008, about 28% of U.S. women ages 15-64 have had abortions. This figure has risen from 2.8% in 1973 to 11% in 1980, 19% in 1987, 24% in 1994, and 27% in 2001. In 2008, of women ages 40-55, about 40% have had abortions in their lifetimes. studies by the Polish Federation for Women and Family Planning provide similar estimates of 1/4 lifetime exposure and yearly counts of 100,000+: For instance Wanda Nowicka, head of the Federation for Women and Family Planning, estimated in 2010 that approximately 80 000-200 000 Polish women terminate unintended pregnancies every year. According to her, 10-15% of these abortions are induced abroad. (Dubrowska 2010.) This estimation would mean that up to 30 000 Polish women travel each year abroad to seek abortion. According to the latest estimations of the Federation for Women and Family Planning (2016), over 100 000 abortions are induced every year in Poland, meaning that every fourth Polish woman has experienced an abortion. # banning increases maternal death worldwide, more liberal abortion laws are correlated with lower maternal death rates from abortion: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640934606085816350/unsafe_abortion.png in the UK, the legalization of abortion in 1968 was followed by dramatically reduced illegal abortion maternal deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640934510317404160/abortionstats.png #####c #####c ##### # # sexism & feminism # #####o ##### # polling #####o in 1995, 41% were feminists, 35% nonfeminists, and 8% antifeminists; in 2015, 47% were feminists (+6), 40% nonfeminists (+5), and 4% antifeminists (-4): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/578869533809573890/unknown.png #####c ##### # sexism bad + antisexism good #####o # gender pay gap being a mother costs women a portion of their income, but being a father is free: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/441769146880098305/unknown.png # economic gender-diverse companies are more successful than gender-homogenous: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/474067704563630080/unknown.png # health FEMINISM makes you SLEEP HARDER :sleeping: :sleeping_accommodation: :sleeping: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566059827139313692/unknown.png #####c ##### # female occupation preference #####o # genuine preference: gender equality more gender-equal societies have a smaller % STEM graduates who are women: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/618482267228209192/unknown.png Thus, even when girls’ absolute science scores were higher than those of boys, as in Finland, boys were often better in science relative to their overall academic average. Similarly, girls might have scored higher than boys in science, but they were often even better in reading. Critically, the magnitude of these sex differences in personal academic strengths and weaknesses was strongly related to national gender equality, with larger differences in more gender-equal nations. These intraindividual differences in turn may contribute, for instance, to parental beliefs that boys are better at science and mathematics than girls (Eccles & Jacobs, 1986; Gunderson, Ramirez, Levine, & Beilock, 2012). We also found that boys often expressed higher selfefficacy, more joy in science, and a broader interest in science than did girls. These differences were also larger in more gender-equal countries and were related to the students’ personal academic strength. ^studies using the implicit association test to refute this study have really, really bad sample selection bias: "Women’s Representation in Science Predicts National Gender-Science Stereotypes: Evidence From 66 Nations": Participants found the Project Implicit website mainly through links from other websites, media coverage, search engines, and word of mouth (Nosek et al., 2002). The website was available in 17 different languages and hosted on various web servers across the world. Participants choose the gender-science task from a list of five to 12 topics (e.g., implicit age attitudes, implicit racial attitudes). Participants therefore self-selected into the sample by having Internet access, learning about the Project Implicit website, visiting the website, and choosing the gender-science task. The Results and Limitations sections consider the influence of possible self-selection biases. "National differences in gender–science stereotypes predict national sex differences in science and math achievement" Reiches 2020: alt explanations todo: # socialism and gender equality in stem Quartz 2019: """But what explains these stark differences? Eastern Bloc countries once celebrated the equality of men and women as one of the unique products of building a socialist society, in no small part because socialist countries faced severe labor shortages after WWI in the USSR and after WWII throughout the Soviet Bloc. As a result, socialist countries began training women in science and engineering well before Western countries. For instance, 43% of Romanian students enrolled in engineering institutes were women in 1970, as were 39% of all engineering students in the USSR and 27% of students in Bulgaria. Compare these percentages to the United States, where by 1976 women earned only 3% of bachelor’s degrees in engineering.""" Breda et al 2020: according to surveys of children, higher-GDP countries have stronger stereotypes that boys should do math; https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997377382086356992/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997379572167344128/unknown.png Lippmanna and Senik 2018: girls in the former East Germany are significantly more likely to have high competitiveness in mathematics, which results in much lower gender gaps in overall math competitiveness: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997386311415640085/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997386598029209770/unknown.png Lippmanna and Senik 2018: the gender math performance gap is much smaller in former socialist European countries (and Nordic countries); this fact can explain 56.3% of the math performance gap: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997390567879221298/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/997390692097728602/unknown.png """Table 9 displays a more systematic analysis of this East-West difference. Controlling for country and year fixed-effects, as well as the usual socio-demographic controls, the average gender gap in math is of 16 points, where the sample’s average score is of 500. Students from former socialist countries do not score differently, in average, than the rest of the sample. However, girls from these countries score 9 points above their Western counterpart, i.e. they close more than half of the gender gap (conditional on coming from a former socialist country).""" # genuine preference: personality tests sex differences in Big Five personality traits and occupational preferences were mostly consistent across countries, with more gender-equal countries actually having *higher* variation in agreeableness: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/618482883895492648/unknown.png data from Swedish male-female twins suggests that male and female distributions of personality on the Big Five are ~1 standard deviation apart and that genetics explains ~1/3 of these differences; prenatal hormones also probably affect these differences: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/618488340806631434/unknown.png """On average, males scored 1.09 standard deviations higher on the discriminant score than females, indicating a large effect size (males Mean = 0.64 [SD = 1.01], females Mean=-0.45 [SD = 0.99]). The canonical correlation between participants’ sex and the discriminant score was 0.47, indicating that the personality items combined can explain 22% of the group membership (Wilks’ Lambda = 0.78, p < .001). Based on the discriminant function, the sex of 72% of participants could be correctly classified.""""""Males with a male co-twin scored on average 0.61 (SD = 1.00) and males with a female-co-twin 0.70 (SD = 1.01) on the derived M-F personality scale. Females with a female co-twin scored on average -0.49 (SD = 0.99) and females with a male-co-twin -0.38 (SD = 1.01). So, both male and female participants from opposite-sex pairs scored significantly higher on the M-F personality scale (both approximately 0.1 SD more masculine) than did males and females from same-sex pairs.""""""[B]road-sense heritability estimates are 35% for males and 33% for females. Also, we found some evidence for non-additive genetic influences, especially for females. The majority of the variance in the derived personality score can be explained by residual influences, including non-shared environmental influences and measurement error.""" # genuine preference: biology females with congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) who cannot produce androgen (a sex hormone) were shifted towards male preferences on the "things-people" scale: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565946988328124417/unknown.png """The results support the hypothesis that sex differences in occupational interests are due, in part, to prenatal androgen influences on differential orientation to objects versus people. Compared to unaffected females, females with CAH reported more interest in occupations related to Things versus People, and relative positioning on this interest dimension was substantially related to amount of prenatal androgen exposure. Females with CAH scored in between males and typical females on the Things-People dimension; their intermediate score might reflect a dose effect of prenatal androgen or the feminizing effects of socialization or other biological factors related to XX karyotype.""" # social conditioning performing gender may cause hormone differences (rather than the reverse): Using a novel experimental design, participants (trained actors) performed a specific type of competition (wielding power) in stereotypically masculine vs. feminine ways. We hypothesized in H1 (stereotyped behavior) that wielding power increases testosterone regardless of how it is performed, vs. H2 (stereotyped performance), that wielding power performed in masculine but not feminine ways increases testosterone. We found that wielding power increased testosterone in women compared with a control, regardless of whether it was performed in gender-stereotyped masculine or feminine ways. Results supported H1 over H2: stereotyped behavior but not performance modulated testosterone. These results also supported theory that competition modulates testosterone over masculinity. Our findings thus support a gender→testosterone pathway mediated by competitive behavior. Accordingly, cultural pushes for men to wield power and women to avoid doing so may partially explain, in addition to heritable factors, why testosterone levels tend to be higher in men than in women: A lifetime of gender socialization could contribute to “sex differences” in testosterone. Our experiment opens up new questions of gender→testosterone pathways, highlighting the potential of examining nature/nurture interactions and effects of socialization on human biology. # solutions extra-curricular STEM programs significantly increase STEM interest for middle-schoolers and high-schoolers all races and genders: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/664553616606101534/unknown.png # sexism: bias [unformatted, unread] researchers demonstrated a general evaluative bias against women faculty members rated the male candidates as both more competent and more hirable than the females candidate, despite applications being otherwise identical men are favored in some domains, such as tenure rates in biology, but the majority of domains were gender-fair # sexism: hiring [unformatted, unread] negative stereotypes about women's quantitative abilities may lead people to devalue their work or discourage these women from continuing in STEM fields job advertisements for male-dominated careers tended to use more agentic words (or words denoting agency, such as "leader" and "goal-oriented") associated with male stereotypes Social Role Theory, proposed in 1991, states that men are expected to display agentic qualities and women to display communal qualities. women tended to be described in more communal terms and men in more agentic terms in letters of recommendation. These researchers also found that communal characteristics were negatively related to hiring decisions in academia. # sexism: harassment [unformatted, unread] three-quarters of women students and residents were harassed at least once during their medical training: # nonadvancement [unformatted, unread] In engineering and science education, women made up almost 50 percent of non-tenure track lecturer and instructor jobs, but only 10 percent of tenured or tenure-track professors in 1996. In addition, the number of female department chairs in medical schools did not change from 1976 to 1996 # older data outdated [unformatted, unread] psychologists and economists conducted extensive analyses of national data and concluded that the state of women in STEM has changed greatly in the past two decades and any conclusions about their status based on data prior to 2000 are likely to be outdated. In general, they concluded that women had very sizable gains in academic science, including remuneration, promotion, and job satisfaction. # lack of role models [unformatted, unread] research has indicated this is not the case that more female role models would encourage more women to enter fields dominated by men: # sexism: teachers [unformatted, unread] student-teacher interactions affect girls' engagement with STEM student-teacher interactions affect girls' engagement with STEM student-teacher interactions affect girls' engagement with STEM # underconfidence [unformatted, unread] women steer away from STEM fields because they believe they are not qualified for them; the study suggested that this could be fixed by encouraging girls to participate in more mathematics classes. A lack of opportunities in STEM fields could lead to a loss of self-esteem in math and science abilities, and low self-esteem could prevent people from entering science and math fields. Out of STEM-intending students, 35% of women stated that their reason for leaving calculus was due to lack of understanding the material, while only 14% of men stated the same.[105] The study reports that this difference in reason for leaving calculus is thought to develop from women's low level of confidence in their ability, and not actual skill. This study continues to establish that women and men have different levels of confidence in their ability and that confidence is related to how individual's performance in STEM fields. It was seen in another study that when men and women of equal math ability were asked to rate their own ability, women will rate their own ability at a much lower level.[106] Programs with the purpose to reduce anxiety in math or increase confidence have a positive impact on women continuing their pursuit of a career in the STEM field.[107] #####c ##### # single parenthood / single motherhood #####o # divorce necessary: conflict bad high-conflict married families were just as likely to have negative outcomes as were single mothers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636527287981965362/unknown.png Despite caveats concerning potential underestimates of conflict, we find that children from high conflict married-parent families do more poorly in the domains of schooling and substance use, and are at greater risk of early family formation and dissolution, relative to children from low conflict married-parent families. In half of our outcomes, high conflict, stepfather, and single-mother families are statistically indistinguishable in their associations with young adult well-being. [....] Compared to those from low conflict married-parent families, the risks of each of our family-related transitions are anywhere from 25% to upwards of 100% greater for children from high conflict married-parent, stepfather, and single-mother families (not statistically significant in the case of high conflict married-parent families and early cohabitation). Risks also tend to be greater for children from stepfather and single-mother families, relative to children from high conflict married-parent families, although differences are not consistently statistically significant (see “key contrasts”). mothers who are single by choice (rather than separation, divorce, death, etc.) had insignificantly different parenting outcomes from married mothers, except that single mothers had less-frequent "battles" with children: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636529228954861588/unknown.png There were no differences in parenting quality between family types apart from lower mother–child conflict in solo mother families. Neither were there differences in child adjustment. Perceived financial difficulties, child’s gender, and parenting stress were associated with children’s adjustment problems in both family types. The findings suggest that solo motherhood, in itself, does not result in psychological problems for children. # weak effect: crime Barber 2004: the rate of single motherhood *today* has a large, significant positive correlation with crime -- but single motherhood *18 years ago* had a small, significant negative correlation with crime: """Regression analyses that controlled for masculinity of the population (sex ratio of 15- to 64-year-olds) and national wealth (log gross national product, GNP, per capita) found that current single parenthood ratios were strongly and consistently predictive of violent crimes, whereas single parenthood ratios 18 years ago were not. [....] Even more remarkable were the regression results, in which a large positive effect of 1991 illegitimacy ratios on all violent-crime measures was produced. None of the regressions produced a positive relationship between 1972 illegitimacy ratios and crime, providing a remarkably clear rejection of the parental investment hypothesis in favor of the mating competition prediction.""" # weak effect: variety single parenthood explained just 1% of the variation of adult outcomes: In agreement with much previous research into the effects of single parenthood on children, increasing exposure to a single-parent family in childhood was associated with increasing risks of later anxiety, poorer educational and economic outcomes, and criminal offending. However, these associations were rather weak, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.01 to 0.22 (median, 0.10). These results imply that, typically, variation in exposure to single parenthood accounted for about 1% of the variation in outcomes in adulthood. These statistics reflected the facts that (1) most of those exposed to single parenthood did not develop later difficulties and (2) many of those developing later difficulties were not exposed to single parenthood. anxiety disorder rates, university degree rates, welfare dependence, income, arrest or conviction rates, and property or violence offences were insignificantly correlated with single motherhood: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640935399824556045/yoa70019t2.png Table 2 shows that, when due allowance was made for social and contextual factors associated with single parenthood, the duration of exposure to single parenthood during childhood was largely unrelated to later outcomes. There were only 2 possible exceptions to this trend; after adjustment, significant associations (P < .05) remained between exposure to single parenthood and later anxiety disorder and welfare dependence. At the same time, given the many comparisons made in Table 2, these associations could be due to chance variation as a result of multiple tests of significance. To address this issue, a Bonferroni-adjusted38P value (P < .007) was used to correct for multiple (n = 7) tests of significance. In this instance, the adjusted associations between exposure to single parenthood and later anxiety disorder and between single parenthood and welfare dependence were not statistically significant (P > .007) using the Bonferroni correction. #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # international relations: whither internationalism? # # #####o ##### # # United Nations # #####o ###### # effectiveness of peacekeeping #####o Fortna 2004: peacekeeping is correlated with a 70% lower (0.3x) risk of civil war continuing; UN peacekeeping is correlated with a 50% lower (0.5x) risk of civil war continuing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1144577997450526820/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1144578392130343002/image.png """As expected, things change with the end of the Cold War. After 1989, the positive effect of peacekeeping on peace is much stronger (Table 7). Ceteris paribus, when the international community deploys peacekeepers the risk of another round of fighting drops by almost 70% (from 1.00 to 0.32). It is statistically unlikely (less than 5% chance) that we would see such a large effect if no true relationship between peacekeeping and peace existed. The size of the effect is a bit smaller for UN peacekeeping, which reduces the hazard of war by about half. Non-UN missions appear to have a larger effect (smaller hazard ratio) than UN missions, but because of the smaller number of such missions, our estimates are less precise.""" ^ graphical representation of study results: #####c ###### # democratizing the United Nations #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # country-specific data # # #####o ##### # # north korea as a socialist country # #####o ##### # human rights violations #####o # united nations reports United Nations Commission of Inquiry report 2014: there is an almost complete denial of the right to freedom of thought and expression in North Korea: """State surveillance permeates the private lives of all citizens to ensure that virtually no expression critical of the political system or of its leadership goes undetected.""" #####c ##### # resources #####o # summary It's often hard to find resources from within North Korea, due to the country's closed nature and (often) shitty website design. These help. # images example: images of North Korean elections: ^ don't use rodong.rep.kp, it updated its sitemap and is useless # video example: videos near the 2019 elections: (for an idea how how unimportant the elections on 10 March are, have fun seeing how little coverage of the election there is, lol) #####c ##### # democratic elections: obvious sham #####o # todo: can't find any sources on this Law on the Elections of Deputies to the People’s Assemblies at All Levels: """In addition, North Korean Law on the Delegates Election for All Levels of the People’s Assembly (hereinafter the Election Law) stipulates the principle of general, equal, direct and secret votes (Articles 2–5).""""""Although Article 35 of the Election Law provides that “candidates for deputies of the People’s Assembly at each level shall be recommended directly by voters or jointly or independently by political parties or social organizations,” in most cases, such candidates are determined by the Party. In addition, those who are recommended as candidates of deputies must undergo qualification screenings at a voters’ meeting composed of at least one hundred voters before they are registered with the Election Commission as candidates. It is said that it is legally stipulated that voters’ meetings must be held in areas of residence or places such as agencies, enterprises, cooperative farms, schools or military units, but most people are reluctant to attend such meetings.""" """각급 인민회의 대의원선거법에""""""According to the Law on the Election of Representatives of People's Assemblies at All Levels""" ^ # summary North Korean ballots have only one candidate listed, who is chosen by the government. Voters can either cast the unmarked ballot to vote for the candidate or mark the ballot to vote against the candidate. # constitutional one-party government 2016 version: North Korea is constitutionally a one-party government: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1060029935307206736/image.png """Article 11. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea shall conduct all activities under the leadership of the Workers’ Party of Korea.""" # positions elected: local, provincial, national; one ballot per candidate Deputy Secretary General Li, speaking to the Inter-Parliamentary Union meeting in Pyongyang 1991: voters elect the Supreme People's Assembly, as well as provincial and city/council assemblies; voters have one ballot per election, which they cast for one candidate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1059966409494495282/image.png """The SPA is the supreme representative organ formed through an election conducted of the free will of the entire Korean people. The SPA assumes the highest position in the system of power organ, the pivotal core of the State's institutional system and exercises the supreme power of the State. The SPA is composed of the deputies elected by secret ballot on the principle of universal, equal and direct suffrage. This electoral principle is equally applied to election of deputies to local power organs such as provincial, city and county People's Assemblies. The principle of universal suffrage guarantees all the citizens over the age of 17 to have the right to elect or to be elected, irrespective of sex, race, occupation, duration of residence, property status, education, party affiliation, political inclination and religious belief. A voter can be registered only once in a voters' list and have only one ballot to cast. And an equal number of deputies are elected in every constituency set up with an equal number of population. A voter casts a ballot personally to a deputy in candidacy so that this will may be directly reflected in an election of deputies and does so in a place where secret ballot is thoroughly maintained.""" # north korean official: each ballot has just one candidate whose name must be crossed off Deputy Secretary General Li, speaking to the Inter-Parliamentary Union meeting in Pyongyang 1991: in practice, all candidates are nominated by the parties, "considered by the electors in meetings at the workplace or similar", and then approved or disapproved by marking on the ballot paper: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/965093432987111464/unknown.png """While candidates could be nominated by anyone, it was the practice for all candidates to be nominated by the parties. These nominations were examined by the United Reunification Front and then by the Central Electoral Committee, which allocated candidates to seats. The candidate in each seat was then considered by the electors in meetings at the workplace or similar, and on election day the electors could then indicate approval or disapproval of the candidate on the ballot paper.""" ^ not digitized here: # pictures of ballots: each ballot has just one candidate Hong 2019 for Hankook Ilbo (South Korean, liberal): picture of 2019 ballot, front and back, for the Supreme People's Assembly (SPA): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/875497570162589746/201903101917389449_17.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/965348239912079410/unknown.png Front: "Delegate to the Supreme People's Assembly Election Ballot" [최고인민회의 대의원 선거표], Back: "Candidate Name: Jil Geum-sun" [후보자이름 질 금 순] Ministry of Unification of the Republic of Korea 2015: picture of three 2015 ballots, front, for Supreme, Provincial, and County people's assemblies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/875497673141137468/EC8AACEB9DBCEC9DB4EB939C5.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1059939934145884190/image.png Left: "Delegate to the Supreme People's Assembly Election Ballot" [최고인민회의 대의원 선거표], Center: "Delegate to the Provincial People's Assembly Election Ballot" [도 인민회의 대의원 선거표], Right: "Delegate to the County People's Assembly Election Ballot" [군 인민회의 대의원 선거표] # pictures of ballots: from north korean state media Tongil Voice 2019: image of woman showing back of ballots: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1060823043443785778/image.png KCNA 2012: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1059936881942474902/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1059942427949027338/image.png Left: "Delegate to the Provincial People's Assembly Election Ballot" [도 인민회의 대의원 선거표], Right: "Delegate to the County People's Assembly Election Ballot" [군 인민회의 대의원 선거표] Korean Friendship Association of the UK 2019: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1059937030097879040/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1059942827146100868/image.png "Delegate to the Supreme People's Assembly Election Ballot" [최고인민회의 대의원 선거표] # pictures of public postings of voter rolls (used to check who has and has not voted) Tongil Voice 2019: """최고인민회의 대의원선거를 뜻깊게 맞이할 드높은 열의안고""""""High enthusiasm to welcome the election of deputies to the Supreme People's Assembly in a meaningful way""" # parties don't matter there were just 75 mentions of "사회민주당" [Social Democratic Party] in KCNA in the **6 years** between 6 January 2022 (Juche 111) and 2 September 2015 (Juche 104): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1061421602190934087/image.png for comparison: public-funded, editorally independent NPR mentions "Gary Johnson" 335 times: # voters' meetings get just passing mention in human rights report KCNA 2014: full "Report of DPRK Association for Human Rights Studies" mentions voters nominating candidates in https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1063243244181405776/image.png """The candidates are nominated by the voters themselves or by a political party and social organization jointly or independently. Soon after the results of the voting are confirmed (by opening the ballot boxes and counting the ballots), the elected deputies to the Supreme People’s Assembly are announced by the Central Election Committee, those to the provincial (municipal) people’s assemblies by relevant provincial (municipal) election committees and those to the city (district) and county people’s assemblies by the relevant city (district) and county election committees. Currently in the DPRK, 100 % of the voters cast their ballots for the nominated candidates for deputies to the people’s assemblies. This has long been quite usual in the DPRK. The main reason behind the unanimous support for the candidates is that the voters themselves have nominated as candidates the working people including workers, farmers and intellectuals who have worked with devotion for the independent rights and interests of the voters.""" # voters' meetings rarely mentioned by KCNA voters' meetings: "선거자회의들", open letter: "공개서한의" KCNA Korean archives mention "선거자회의들" [Voters' meetings] just 9 times since 2015 (Juche 104): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062259780359565312/image.png KCNA Korean archives mention "voters' meetings" just 12 times since 2014 (Juche 103): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062259945573195816/image.png # how do voter's meetings work? 2015: KCNA says electeds will be "unfailingly loyal" to the leader: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062505106697883669/image.png 2014: KCNA actually very briefly describes voters' meetings: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062480489048461372/image.png """Meetings of voters for nominating candidates for deputies to provincial (municipal), city (district) and county people's assemblies and examining their qualifications took place in the DPRK. Reports were made at the meetings. Explained at the meetings was the Law on the Elections of Deputies to the People's Assemblies at All Levels. Nominated there were officials, workers, farmers and intellectuals as candidates for deputies to the above-said people's assemblies. The participants heard speeches on the qualifications of the candidates for deputies.""" 2014: voters' meetings picked Kim Jong Un in reflection of "their determination and will to entrust their destiny and future entirely to the Workers' Party of Korea and remain true to its leadership with loyalty": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062477022393274458/image.png """At the voters' meetings at all constituencies of the country for the nomination of candidate for deputy to the 13th SPA, all the voters nominated supreme leader Kim Jong Un as the candidate in reflection of their determination and will to entrust their destiny and future entirely to the Workers' Party of Korea and remain true to its leadership with loyalty.""" 2014: Kim Jong Un writes an open letter to all voters before the SPA election, mentions "voters' meetings": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/965147213883908136/unknown.png """Supreme leader Kim Jong Un sent an open letter to all voters throughout the country on Tuesday. The following is the full text of the open letter: [....] The voters' meetings held in all constituencies of the country for the nomination of candidates for the posts of deputies to the 13th Supreme People's Assembly nominated me, in reflection of their determination and will to entrust their destiny and future entirely to the Workers' Party of Korea and support its leadership with loyalty, as candidate for the post of deputy to the 13th Supreme People's Assembly. I keenly felt the steel-strong faith and will of our service personnel and people to place their absolute trust in the Party and follow it to the last, and was greatly encouraged by it.""" 2009: Kim Jong Il writes an open letter to all voters before the SPA election, mentions "voters' meetings" (does not explain them): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1060026716921266196/image.png """Voters' meetings were held in all constituencies of the country to nominate candidates for deputies to the 12th Supreme People's Assembly amid high political enthusiasm of the service personnel and people who are stepping up the general onward march towards the future of a great, prosperous and powerful socialist country, and they nominated me as candidate for the post of deputy to the Supreme People's Assembly. This is an expression of their absolute support for and trust in our Party, and their revolutionary confidence and indomitable will to carry forward the revolutionary cause of Juche to the end under the Party's Songun-based revolutionary leadership.""" CIA radio intercepts from 1963 (from the KCNA): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1060027183256580157/image.png """PEOPLE MEET TO NOMINATE LOCAL CANDIDATES Pyongyang KCNA International Service in English 1615 GMT 16 November 1963--B (Text) Pyongyang, 16 November--All people in North Korea are meeting the 3 December elections of deputies to local power organs with high political enthusiasm and labor successes. Under the watchword: "Let's honor the yearly production plan before election day," they are attaining fresh successes in socialist construction by giving another spur to the galloping chollima. The series of meetings of inhabitants for recommending candidates for deputies have come to an end, in the main, in all constituencies. Election committees in Pyongyang, South Pyongan, and other provinces registered recommended candidates for deputies and issued their names. Voter's meetings are now taking place in all parts of the country in support of candidates for deputies to local power organs. of the Pyongyang combined printing factory gathered at a recent The employees meeting to express their unanimous support for hero of the republic Han Nam-su, a commander of the Pyongyang railway administration who was nominated as candidate for deputy to the Pyongyang City People's Council.""" # turnout and assent near universal: official reports claim 100% support for candidates Mansourov 2015: every North Korean local election from 1999 to 2015 was officially reported to have 99.8% or higher turnout and to have 100% support for each candidate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/875489051640233994/unknown.png ^ note that tankies may argue the above are the result of voter's meetings -- this does not align with statement by Deputy Secretary General Li, and requires one to believe that over the course of three decades 89% of people would consistently choose one party to represent them ^ this 2009 article argues that North Korean elections used to have a black (against) and white (for) box, but I can find no supporting evidence: # comparison to fascist italy the single yes/no ballot is *almost exactly* the "democratic" electoral system used by Fascist Italy: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/965117449408245800/unknown.png #####c ##### # north korean election results by year #####o # graphical results by year national 1990-2019: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1061817618916454450/north_korea_elections_1990_2019.png national 1948-2019: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1061819740722569296/north_korea_elections.png turnout of all elections: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1061831789963907163/image.png # local and national elections: wikipedia 1990 SPA: 1991 local: 1993 local: 1998 SPA: 1999 local: 2003 SPA: 2003 local: 2009 SPA: 2007 local: 2011 local: 2014 SPA: 2015 local: 2019 SPA: 2019 local: # national elections: inter-parliamentary union IPU 2019: 687 Democratic Front seats: turnout 99.9%: IPU 2014: 607 WPK seats; 50 KSDP seats; 22 Chondoist seats; 8 independent seats; turnout 99.97%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/965123591999983656/unknown.png IPU 2009: 606 WPK seats; 50 KSDP seats; 22 Chondoist seats; 3 independent seats; 6 Korean Residents in Japan seats; turnout 99.98%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/965123545204162611/unknown.png """As in the previous elections, only one candidate was listed on the ballot paper in each constituency. Officially, voters' meetings are held in all the constituencies across the country to nominate candidates. It is widely believed that most candidates were hand-picked by Mr. Kim, the Workers' Party of Korea and the military. Initially, it was reported that Mr. Kim Jong-un. Mr. Kim's third son, was among the candidates. However, Mr. Kim reportedly renounced appearing to openly favour his third son for fear of triggering an internal power struggle among those vying for the leader's post.""" IPU 2003: 687 Democratic Front seats: turnout 99.9%: IPU 1998: 601 WPK seats; 52 KSDP seats; 24 Chondoist seats; 10 independent seats; turnout 99.85%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1061808581265080320/image.png IPU 1990: 601 WPK seats; 51 KSDP seats; 22 Chondoist seats; 13 independent seats; turnout 99.87%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/965123839438770196/unknown.png IPU 1986: 655 Democratic Front seats: """Candidates for Deputy are nominated by political parties and social organizations (which may recommend joint candidates), or at meetings of employees of State organs and entreprises, of members of co-operative farms and organs, and of servicemen. The candidate must obtain majority backing at the nomination meeting and agree, in writing, that he is willing to be elected from the constituency concerned.""" IPU 1982: 615 Democratic Front seats (no breakdown): IPU 1977: 579 Democratic Front seats (no breakdown): IPU 1972: 475 Democratic Front seats (no breakdown): """Candidates for Deputy are recommended by political parties and social organizations (which may recommend joint candidates), or at meetings of employees of state organs and enterprises, of members of co-operative farms and organs, and of servicemen. The recommended candidate must agree, in writing, that he is willing to be elected from the constituency concerned.""" IPU 1967: 475 Democratic Front seats (no breakdown): # national elections: nohlen et al (mentions that party breakdowns are frequently not available) Nohlen Grotz Hartmann 2001: seat distributions by party were available for 1957, 1962, 1967, 1972, 1990, and 1998; seat distributions by party could not be obtained for 1977, 1982, or 1986: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/998124493736255508/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/998124517379539055/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/998124589769039932/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/998127265374273536/unknown.png Nohlen Grotz Hartmann 2001: discusses voters' meetings: """Everyqualified registered voter is formallyeligible for Parliament. Once the Standing Committee of the SPA publicly announces the holding of elections (60 days prior to election day), the nominees are chosen in various places, such as factories, enterprises, and co-operative farms. Then, recommendation committees are convened in the single-member constituencies (SMCs) to screen out candidates, who are later registered as official nominees and made publiclyknown through leaflets and street signboards. In practice onlyone candidate is nominated per SMC, who is always considered a KWP nominee disregarding whether he/ she is a partymember or not. A person can be nominated onlyif he/ she belongs to the core class i.e. loyal supporters of the Leader and members of the partyor the second stable class, i.e. not dangerous to the system.""" Nohlen Grotz Hartmann 2001: discusses the dearth of data on North Korean elections: """1.4 Commentary on the Electoral Statistics: North Korea is one of the worst-known and least accessible states in the world. Official statistics on elections including absolute numbers of registered voters, votes cast and yes/ no-votes have never been published. The only statistical information obtained were the election dates, the names of the (uncontested) candidates, the number of electoral districts as well as the percentages of turnout and yes-votes. Furthermore, the composition of Parliament could be documented according to the main organizational affiliation of the candidates. The materials used in this studyare primarily from South Korean and US intelligence sources. Some detailed information such as the actual election procedures have been acquired through interviews with firsthand experts, including some escapees or diplomats who lived in North Korea for some time but cannot be identified here.""" # national elections: kcna (never gives breakdown by sub-party) search: KCNA 2019 SPA: 687 Democratic Front seats, 99.99% turnout, 100% of ballots cast for Democratic Front candidates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062241192823230474/image.png KCNA 2014 SPA: 686 Democratic Front seats, 99.97% turnout, 100% of ballots cast for Democratic Front candidates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062240564738793502/image.png KCNA 2009 SPA: 687 Democratic Front seats, 99.98% turnout, 100% of ballots cast for Democratic Front candidates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062241574894972938/image.png KCNA 2003 SPA: 687 Democratic Front seats, 99.9% turnout, 100% of ballots cast for Democratic Front candidates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062242761996251136/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062242516738519071/image.png KCNA 1998 SPA: 687 Democratic Front seats, 99.85% turnout, 100% of ballots cast for Democratic Front candidates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062243024823926855/image.png # national elections: candidates elected: kcna common titles: "대의원선거결과", "대의원 명단 발표", "중앙선거지도위원회" spreadsheet: Rodong Sinmun (through DPRK Today) 2019 SPA: "조선민주주의인민공화국 최고인민회의 제14기 대의원선거결과에 대하여" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062501683982241822/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062501705771647068/20190313-in38112-3.png ^ Tongil News 2019 SPA: has transcription of all names: ^ note: KCNA 2019 SPA article does not contain a list of candidates, as it usually does: ^ note: KCTV reported on the Rodong article shown above, but the Rodong back catalog only goes to 2022 January 1st: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062495578262601778/image.png KCNA 2014 SPA: KCNA 2009 SPA: KCNA 2003 SPA: Korea Institute for National Unification 2009: SPA elections of 2003, 1998, 1990: # local elections: kcna (never gives breakdown by sub-party) search: KCNA 2019 local: 99.98% turnout, 27876 deputies elected, "and voted for the candidates for deputies" (implied 100%, but not explicit): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1059951847105904800/image.png KCNA 2015 local: 99.97% turnout, 28452 deputies elected, "and voted for the candidates for deputies" (implied 100%, but not explicit): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062240899494596700/image.png KCNA 2011 local: 99.97% turnout, 28116 deputies elected, "and voted for the candidates for deputies" (implied 100%, but not explicit): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062240330042310656/image.png KCNA 2007 local: 99.82% turnout, 27390 deputies elected, 100% of ballots cast for Democratic Front candidates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062239713253130240/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062241824506400808/image.png KCNA 2003 local: 99.9% turnout, 26650 deputies elected, 100% of ballots cast for Democratic Front candidates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062239373891997696/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062242031398826014/image.png KCNA 1999 local: 99.9% turnout, 100% of ballots cast for Democratic Front candidates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062239215955497050/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062242886067957760/image.png # national elections: other north korean media People's Korea 2009: """A close examination of the list of the newly elected SPA members revealed 340 of the 687 members of the North's 10th-term parliament, or nearly 50 percent of them, were replaced.""" Rodong Sinmun 2019 SPA: Rodong Sinmun 2019 SPA: Choson Sinbo 2019 SPA: #####c ##### # ten principles: authoritarian #####o # summary The most important document in North Korea is the Ten Principles, which citizens have to learn and possibly memorize, and which is de facto superior even to the Constitution. The document outlines the expectations that citizens have absoute loyalty to the Kim family and Juche or Kim-Il-sung-Kim-Jong-ilist ideology. # history the document went through two versions: the 1974 version "Ten Principles for Establishing the Party's Single-Ideology System" [당의 유일적령도체계 확립의 10대 원칙] was announced by Kim Il-sung in 1967 and published by Kim Jong-il in 1974 before consolidating power in 1980; the 2013 version "Ten Principles for Establishing the Party's Single-Leadership System" [당의 유일적령도체계확 립의 10대 원칙] was announced in 1967, Kim Il-Sung purged the Kapsang Faction (which wanted economic reforms, to reduce the personality cult, and appoint one of its own as Kim's successor) and established the Ten Principles to cement his leaderist role: Lim 2018: """Symbolically speaking, it is apt to describe North Korea as a "leader state." By regulating North Koreans through the use of the Ten Principles, and monopolizing their socialization possibilities through creating an isolated social setting, the North Korean state can guarantee the stable functioning of its cult system.""" Green 2012: the Ten Principles seems to supercede the constitution, according to emigrants: """Regardless, as a result of this shortsightedness there are many North Korea experts and students who have seemingly now forgotten that looking at North Korea only through the materials officially disseminated by the North Korean authorities will not provide all, or indeed most, of the answers. This includes the Socialist ‘Constitution’ of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, for the country only has one constitution, and it is the Ten Principles.""" Daily NK 2013: """The ten main principles and 65 sub-clauses of the Ten Principles describe in detail how to go about establishing the one-ideology system. All North Koreans have to memorize them. Not only that, they have to put them into practice; during regular evaluation meetings, people criticize themselves on the basis of whether or not they have been living up to the Ten Principles in their everyday lives.""" picture of the book: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868657277861756928/20150128_02.png """Last year, the Asian Press obtained the actual North Korean Supreme Covenant, "The Ten Principles for Establishing the Party's Unique Territorial System," which transcends both the Constitution and the Workers' Party of Korea's party covenant. It was secretly carried out of the country by a collaborator inside North Korea.""" # ten principles 2013 version: importance of edits made Paektu Mountain [백두산, also Baekdu Mountain or Changbai Mountain] is the tallest mountain in Korea and is mythologically the birthplace of Dangun Wanggeom, the founder of the first Korean Kingdom; the Kim family highlights the mountain in their propaganda and refers to themselves as the Paektu bloodline: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868653110028009532/255px-Emblem_of_North_Korea.png Chang 2013: the document links Kim Jong Un to a patriotic past and the "Paektu lineage": """The new governing doctrine gives an emphasis on the loyalty to Kim Jong Eun from the Baekdu lineage and on learning after Kim Jong Il. This implies that following Kim Jong Il’s patriotism, all people should contribute to developing a stronger country.""" """Kim Jong-un had to inherit the lineage and ideas of his grandfather and father, and to present his own ruling ideology for the construction of a new society. [...] [The ideology of] Kim-Il-sung-Kim-Jong-ilism contains the aspect of proving that [Kim Jong-un] is a faithful successor by showing filial piety, the aspect of making [him] great, and the granting of legitimacy to the lineage of Mt. Baekdu (Young-Chul Jung 2012, 2-3). This can be seen in Article 10 of the Ten Principles [.]""" [김정은으로 혈통세습이 이루어지면서 선대인 할아버지, 아버지의 사상도 계승해야만 했 고, 나름의 새로운 사회건설을 위한 통치이념을 제시해야만 했다. [....] 김일성-김정일에 대한 최고의 충성과 효성을 보여줌으로써 이들에 대한 충실한 후계자임 을 증명하는 의미와 김정은의 위대성 만들기와 백두산 혈통승계의 정당성 부여 측면도 김 일성-김정일주의에 담겨있는 것이다 (정영철 2012, 2-3). 이는 유일적영도체계 10대 원칙의 제10조[.]]""" Sina 2013: """Article 10, paragraph 1, of the revised "Ten Principles" of North Korea stipulates that the cause of establishing the party's sole leadership system should be deepened and continued for generations. The second paragraph also stipulates that the blood of our party and the revolution-the Paektu Mountain bloodline should be continued forever... and its absolute purity should be resolutely maintained. In the previous "Ten Principles," Article 10, paragraph 1, stated that the only leadership system of the Party Central Committee should be established under the leadership of leader Kim Il Sung. A researcher at a South Korean National Policy Research Institute said, North Korea emphasized The Baektu Mountain descent, and clearly stipulated hereditary system, strengthened the idolization of the three generations of Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un's "Kim family", which is tantamount to recognizing that North Korea is a modern feudal country. The revised "Ten Principles" also include, "Make the Sun Palace of Jinxiu Mountain (the place where the remains of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il) an eternal sacred place, and vowed to defend to the death (Article 2)" and "Treat it solemnly. Works and slogans with portraits, statues, and videos of the great Baektu Mountain, and resolutely protect (Article 3)" and other content. The Kim Jong-un family is called "the great men of Mount Paektu". Article 4 also stipulates that the instructions of the leader (Kim Il Sung), the quotations of the general (Kim Jong Il), and the line and policies of the Party (Kim Jong Un regime) shall be regarded as the principles and creeds of career and life, and shall be regarded as the measure of everything According to those requirements, think and act in accordance with those requirements anytime and anywhere.""" # ten principles 1974 version: original korean hangeoul full document available on Wikipedia (Hangeoul): # ten principles 1974 version: CAfNKHR translation CAfNKHR 2011: full English translation of the 1974 "Ten Great Principles of the Establishment of the Unitary Ideology System"; translation is by biased organization and skews the document negatively (ie, "authoritarian rule" instead of "dictatorship of the proletariat"; "hereditary succession" instead of "from generation to generation"): translated by Joanna Hosaniak, Kyung Eun Ha, Markus Simpson Bell article 1: "Struggle with all your life to paint the entire society the single color of the Great Leader Comrade KIM Il Sung’s revolutionary thought." "Entrust our fate to the Great Leader and devote our bodies and spirits for the revolutionary fight driven by the Great Leader, carrying with us always, the strong belief that there is nothing impossible if we are under the leadership of the Great Leader." https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868631464869236736/unknown.png article 2: "Even in a short life, live only for the Great Leader, devote our youth and life for him and keep loyal minds toward the Great Leader even under unfavorable circumstances": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868631511312789524/unknown.png article 3: "Affirming the absolute nature of the Great Leader Comrade Kim Il Sung’s authority is the supreme demand of our revolutionary task and the revolutionary volition of our party and people." "Regard as an emergency situation and pursue unyielding the fight against even the smallest challenge that could damage the authority and power of the Great Leader Comrade KIM Il Sung." "Respectfully worship our beloved Great Leader Comrade KIM Il Sung’s sculptures, plaster casts, bronze statues, badges with portraits, art developed by the Great Leader, board with Great Leader’s instructions, basic mottos of the Party.": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868631538944860160/unknown.png article 4: "Accept the Great Leader Comrade KIM Il Sung’s revolutionary thought as your belief and take the Great Leader’s instructions as your creed", "Unconditionally accept, treat as a non-negotiable condition, and decide everything based upon our Great Leader Comrade KIM Il Sung’s instructions and in every act think only about the greatness of our Leader.": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868631565717102612/unknown.png article 5: "Great Leader Comrade KIM Il Sung’s instructions must be viewed as a legal and supreme order and unconditionally realized without excuses or trivial reasons, but with endless loyalty and sacrifice.", "Regard as a holy duty and supreme glory reducing the concerns of our Beloved Leader Comrade KIM Il Sung and fight for it with complete dedication.": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868631602345938974/unknown.png article 6: "As a rule, evaluate and treat all people using the degree of loyalty to the Great Leader Comrade KIM Il Sung as the yardstick and struggle against livelihoods that are at odds with the sole ideological system of the Party regardless of one’s position and distinctions": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868631651163443230/unknown.png article 7: nothing too crazy here: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868631681270169630/unknown.png article 8: "Consider political life as the first life, never bend one’s political beliefs and revolutionary integrity. Learn to throw away like bits of straw, one’s physical life for political life.": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868631714673602591/unknown.png article 9: "Establish a strong revolutionary order and rules that organize and advance all undertakings according to the Leader’s sole leadership system and handle policy questions solely through the teachings of the Great Leader and the conclusion of the Party." "Timely report to the Party organization the non-organizational and disorderly situations that violate the Party’s unitary ideological system and sole leadership constitution whether it is big or small.": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868631740229484564/unknown.png article 10: "Make all of your family as well as yourself look up to the Great Leader and fulfill loyal duty to him and remain endlessly faithful to the Party’s sole leadership.": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868631769354739742/unknown.png #####c ##### # north korean constitution todo xxx #####o # constitution changes 1998 Constitution: prior Constitution: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_North_Korea Previously, the North had deleted all the expressions of 'communism' in 2009 and 2010 when it revised the constitution and party rules, respectively. also removed dictatorship of proletariat! This time the name was changed to "Ten Principles for Establishing the Party's Unique Leadership System", and the content was reduced from the preamble plus 10 articles and 65 paragraphs and merged into the preamble plus 10 articles and 60 paragraphs. #####c ##### # north korean racism / ethnocentrism #####o Rodong Sinmung 2006 (an editorial published under a pen name): """Recently, in South Korea, a strange game pursuing the weakening of the fundamental character of our race and making society “multiethnic and multiracial” is unfolding. Those responsible for this commotion are spreading confounding rumors like South Korea is a “multiracial area” mixed with the blood of Americans and several other races, how we must “overcome closed ethnic nationalism,” and we must embrace “the inclusiveness and openness of a multiethnic nation” like the United States. The words themselves take a knife to the feeling of our people, but even more serious is that this anti-national theory of “multiethnic, multiracial society” has already gone beyond the stage of discussion. Already, they’ve decided that from 2009, content related to “multiracial, multiethnic culture” would be included in elementary, middle and high school textbooks that have until now stressed that Koreans are the “descendents of Dangun,” “of one blood line” and “one race,” and to change the terms “families of international marriage” and “families of foreign laborers” to “multicultural families.” This is an outrage that makes it impossible to repress the rage of the people/race.""" #####c ##### # surveys #####o # scope of migration from north korea to south korea (and back), aka "defection" Ministry of Unification: since 1998, there have been 33,800 migrants from North Korea to South Korea ("defectors"): WaPo 2022: in the last 10 years, there have been 30 official migrants from South to North Korea ("defectors"): # surveys of North Koreans in North Korea: CSIS panel the CSIS panel is a convenience sample whose methodology is unknown, but mostly based off of evangelical Christian dissidents in North Korea; given the biases of convenience sampling and the ideological leanings of CSIS, these survey results should be taken with a massive grain of salt: CSIS Beyond Parallel 2016: pt 1: pt 2: pt 3: pt 4: pt 5: 2nd survey pt 1: 2nd survey pt 2: # surveys of North Koreans outside North Korea Database Center for North Korean Human Rights (NKDB) 2022: of 407 defectors, 18% were willing to return to North Korea: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1061850343081779240/image.png IPUS 2022: """Over the past decade, Kim Jong-un’s approval rating averaged 63.7 percent, with 59.4 saying they were proud of Juche ideology, while 58.2 percent of the residents criticized their leaders and the government. Political approval has continued to increase since Kim Jong-un took power, peaking in 2018 but with an apparent decline since 2019, while trust in social and economic institutions have been declining since 2016. The level of interaction and engagement with South Korea is consistently identified as a variable that influences the domestic criticism of the North Korean regime.""" NPR 2013: when defectors from North Korea were surveyed, 60% thought that most of the country supports Kim Jong Un: Defectors Think Most North Koreans Approve Of Kim Jong Un """Seoul's Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, as reported by Yonhap news agency, asked 133 defectors to hazard a guess as to Kim's actual approval rating in the country, which at least publicly buys into the absolute cult of personality surrounding its leadership. Just over 60 percent said they think most of the country is behind him. In a similar survey in 2011, only 55 percent believed Kim's father and predecessor, Kim Jong Il, had the support of the majority of the country.""" 2011 poll results: """North Korean leader Kim Jong-un probably has a public approval rating of over 50 percent, a poll conducted on escapees living in South Korea showed Thursday. The survey carried out by the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University on 133 North Korean defectors showed that 61.7 percent believe the young leader has a majority support of his people. A similar report conducted in 2011 showed that only 55.7 percent of defectors said the former North Korean leader Kim Jong-il had support of at least 50 percent of his people. The former head is the late father of the incumbent leader, with Kim Jong-un taking control in December 2011.""" #####c ##### # claims of dynasty / monarchy #####o # symbology KCNA routinely bolds the names of every Kim leader: Kim Jong-Un, Kim Jong-Il, Kim Il-Sung: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1061338186497929236/image.png """The reporter praised the patriotic achievements of the great leader Comrade Kim Il-sung and the great leader Comrade Kim Jong-il, who founded our nation and demonstrated the excellence of the Korean nation to the world. Honoring comrade Kim Jong-un, who has extraordinary wisdom and exceptional political ability, the dignity and status of our socialist state will rise to the highest level, and a new era of self-respect and prosperity unprecedented in the history of the nation for 5,000 years will unfold on this land, the era of our state-first principle. He cherished the national pride and self-esteem of having an outstanding great man as his father, and upheld the programmatic task set forth in the historic speech given by the respected comrade Kim Jong-un at the 5th session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly to build a prosperous country and realize the cause of national reunification. Thanks to the refined leadership of the respected comrade Kim Jong-un and the single-mindedness of ten million people, our country will forever shine throughout the world as a great and dignified country, prosperous and prosperous, the most powerful country under the world. (End)""" #####c ##### # economic development #####o # nighttime satellite space photographs NASA 2016: nighttime photographs of North and South Korea: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879808578138030110/unknown.png # propaganda Kim Kim Lee 2007: North Korea hasn't published detailed economic stats since the 60's and no growth stats at all since the 1990: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/929420782235451443/FIl_RSRX0AU4g8Z.png # history after the war, North Korea developed rapidly and was more industrialized than the South until the 1970's; just as quickly, it afterward stagnated and saw flat or declining standards of living: North Korea: """North Korea released relatively detailed statistics in the 1950s, but stopped publishing official data from the 1960s. Japanese scholars, Goto and Niwa, tried to estimate North Korea’s GDP using a method similar to the NMP-based method applied by the CIA to estimate the Soviet’s GDP (Goto, 1990; Niwa and Goto, 1989). However, while this worked until 1960, the lack of data made this endeavor no longer feasible. In addition, because there was significantly less data for North Korea than the Soviet Union, various assumptions had been made in the estimation of GDP, making the accuracy of the estimates somewhat suspect.""" # lack of gdp data: no publication Kim 2007: total factor productivity (TFP) was low or negative for most of North Korea's history, and most growth resulted from increased capital stock and intensity: # gdp data estimates Kim 2021: GDP growth rate estimates from several sources, including NK's official estimates and their preferred, hidden-inflation-adjusted estimates https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879889183651553340/unknown.png BOK 2021: bank of korea data and sectoral estimates: # alternate data: budget growth Kim 2021: growth in budget data is nominal and includes loans, and is also not listed by specific budget items, which makes using it as an estimate for real growth difficult: """Recent discussions on the North Korean growth rate also show potential for such errors. In a recent paper, the author assessed the economic conditions of North Korea to be reasonable after believing that the 4.2% growth in the 2020 budget plan released in April was the economic growth rate. But, as I pointed out earlier, the budget and settlement of accounts is a nominal variable, and in the Soviet’s case, it included its central bank loans in the budget income. There is no guarantee that North Korea is any different. And, unless specific items of the budget account are clearly stated, doubt will only escalate.""" Frank 2012: the official North Korean budget size (the only other official measure published) implies smoothly and consistently upward economic growth since 1999, which is implausible: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879828125108813885/unknown.png Frank 2012: but year-to-year changes in the official North Korean budget size correlate reasonably well with changes in the growth rates estimated by the Bank of South Korea: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879828133971394600/unknown.png Graph 2 also includes the North Korean GDP growth estimates by the Bank of Korea (purple line). In absolute terms, these are much lower than the North Korean data. But remarkably, the correlation coefficient for this South Korean estimate and North Korea’s officially announced achieved revenue (blue line) from 2005 to 2011 is relatively high with r=0.65 .... In other words, although both sides seem to differ about the amount of growth, at least there is some moderately strong agreement about its general direction. Frank 2017: continuation of above graph shows significantly lower growth after 2013: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879829667434074142/RFrank_SPA2017-Graph-1-1024x730.png # causes of slow growth: low tfp growth Kim 2007: total factor productivity (TFP) was low or negative for most of North Korea's history, and most growth resulted from increased capital stock and intensity: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879887043839291403/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879886702666195025/unknown.png """We find that, taking distortions in output and price statistics into account, the average annual growth rate of North Korean GNP and GNP per capita from 1954 to 1989 was 4.4 and 1.9%, respectively. The average annual growth rates of GNP are fairly comparable to those of the Soviet economy from 1928 to 1985 according to Western estimates but the rates per capita are well below those of most socialist economies in the same period (Ofer, 1987). [....] Our findings indicate that the main cause of slow or negative economic growth was extremely low total factor productivity, and that the productivity of the North Korean economy had been lower than that of the Soviet economy by 33%.""" # reforms over time Frank 2017: the proportion of the economy that is not centrally planned is increasing: The share of budget revenue coming from “local areas” is planned to reach 26.7 percent in 2017, compared to 23.2 percent in 2016 and a mere 16.1 percent in 2011. This implies that the part of the economy that is not centrally controlled is still growing, an impression I can confirm based on what I saw during my recent visits to North Korea. The Minister of Finance who delivered the report actually said that “Provinces, cities and counties envisage ensuring expenditures with their own local revenues and adding their profits to the state budget.” In other words, their income has reached a stage where they become mainly self-sufficient. # sanctions and testing timeline Drum 2018: brief timeline of sanctions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879816226795315251/blog_north_korea_sanctions_timeline2.png DW 2018: brief timeline of missile tests: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879816584326180914/41575416_7.png Davenport 2021: See 2020: graph of US-NK meetings and NK military provocations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879817190226944010/pEqq8K6r64F_IW_JWxCRWnl3alx1d_dFq4pzOHmM3vg.png # trade over time KOSIS Bukhan: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062545664069869659/trade.png # sanctions economic impact Kim 2021: north Korea's trade fell from around 4.0 billion in 1990 (before USSR collapse) to 2.5 billion in 1991 (after USSR collapse) and 1.5 billion in 1998 (end of North Korean famine, March of Suffering); it rose to about 4 billion in 2008-2010 and 7.5 billion in 2014, (increased trade with China outweighed sanctions from rest of world) before declining to about 3 billion in 2018 (China imposed sanctions): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879876377841664080/unknown.png in 2019, China represented 95.8% of exports and 67% of imports to North Korea: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879883129488289892/unknown.png Hyun-woo 2019: between 2017 and 2018 (when many new sanctions were imposed), exports from North Korea reduced by 86% and imports to North Korea reduced by 31%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879818076047159386/optimize.png """Resolution 2371, which took effect in August 2017, bans U.N. member nations from importing North Korean coal, iron ore and seafood. Resolution 2375, which came into force a month later, bans purchasing textiles from North Korea and selling natural gas condensates and liquids to the regime. Resolution 2397 in December also bans selling industrial machinery and vessels. Because coal, iron ore and textiles are North Korea's main export items, their drop of almost 100 percent led to the plunge in exports, KOTRA said. The North's exports of mineral fuel and oil dropped by 96.9 percent and textiles fell 99.5 percent.""" # sanctions humanitarian impact Kim Jong-Un 2022: """Saying that in particular, the people's food situation is now getting tense as the agricultural sector failed to fulfill its grain production plan due to the damage by typhoon last year, he stressed that the plenary meeting should take a positive measure for settling the problem.""" Bicker 2021 in BBC: the closing of North Korean borders due to COVID-19 and sanctions have created a situation similar to deadly 90s famine, according to Kim Jong-un: ^ HRW 2021: an anonymous source reported of starvation deaths in September 2020: """“There is barely any food going into the country from China for almost two months now,” a missionary who clandestinely helps people in need inside North Korea told me last September. “There are so many more beggars, some people died from hunger in the border area and there’s no soap, toothpaste, or batteries.” Without AA batteries, households can’t even keep track of time, he said. Their clocks have died.""""""Official trade data provides a glimpse of the grim economic plight of the North Korean people. Trade with China in 2020 decreased by almost 81 percent, which came after already enormous drops in 2018, after the United Nations anti-weapons proliferation sanctions were expanded. The government dramatically reduced imports of staple foods and other necessities from China in August and stopped almost all imports, including all food and medicine, in October, claiming that COVID-19 can spread through migratory birds and animals, snow, and “yellow dust” blowing into the country from China. These shocks came alongside severe floods that hit the country between June and September, destroying crops, roads, and bridges — further undermining agricultural production.""" ^ KCNA 2021: reference to Arduous March doesn't appear to be in reference to famine conditions: """I made up my mind to ask the WPK organizations at all levels, including its Central Committee, and the cell secretaries of the entire Party to wage another more difficult "Arduous March" in order to relieve our people of the difficulty, even a little, as they have followed their Party as their mother and overcome all sorts of difficulties for several decades to defend it and to provide them with the optimum material and cultural wellbeing.""" # foreign aid: comparison to south korea SK had a GDP of 23.6 bn 2010 USD in 1960, 58.5 billion in 1970: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/592806974119477250/unknown.png SK received 1.5bn 2010 USD (6.4% of GDP) in 1960, 1.9bn 2010 USD (3.2% of GDP) in 1970: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/592807016561508389/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # china as a socialist country # #####o ##### # rule by the wealthy (likely worse than USA!) #####o # history the CCP legalized and encouraged wealthy individuals to join the Party in 2002: """To further symbolize the CCP's support of the private sector, the 16th Party Congress in 2002 revised the Party's Constitution to include the "Three Represents" slogan promoted by Jiang Zemin. The CCP now claimed to represent not only its traditional supporters, the workers and farmers, but also the interests of the new "advanced productive forces" of urban economic and social elites, thereby justifying their inclusion in the Party. Although often ridiculed as empty rhetoric, the "Three Represents" changed the Party's strategy of co-opting entrepreneurs from an informal practice to a formal goal.""" # wealth of the leadership: usa wealth of US congress (2018): total $2.43 billion, mean $4.54 million, median $511 thousand: # wealth of the leadership: china Li 2017: research on the this topic: """Private entrepreneurs have also been granted representation in the NPC and National People’s Political Consultative Conference (NPPCC) since the 1990s. According to calculations by Southern Weekly in 2010, about 9% of the delegates in the 11th NPC (2008‑2013) were owners of private enterprises.28 According to the Shanghai-based Hurun Research Institute, about 15% of private entrepreneurs on the China’s Rich List were members of either the NPC or NPPCC from 2010 to 2013, and as much as 30-40% of the 50 richest private entrepreneurs in China were also NPC/NPPCC delegates from 2010 to 2014.29""" 2018 Hurun China Rich List 2018: 2018 Hurun Rich List Ranking: """Political appointments hit a twenty-year low with 7.5% compared with 10% last year and five years ago’s high at 15.7%. 142 are delegates to the NPC or CPPCC, down 71 from last year, with delegate to the NPC down 48 to 77, and CPPCC down 23 to 65.""" 2016 Hurun Rich List: """The proportion of people who have the right to speak has dropped for two consecutive years, from 11.3% last year to 9.4%. 176 are deputies to the National People's Congress or members of the CPPCC, a decrease of 17 from last year. Among them, the number of deputies to the National People's Congress decreased by 15 to 99, and the number of members of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference decreased by 2 to 77. Mainly because the election of 45 deputies to the 12th National People's Congress of Liaoning Province was invalid.""" 2015 Hurun Rich List: http://www.hurun.net/CN/ArticleShow.aspx?nid=14677 2014 Hurun Rich List: http://www.hurun.net/CN/ArticleShow.aspx?nid=4569 2013 Hurun Rich List: http://www.hurun.net/CN/ArticleShow.aspx?nid=85 2012 Hurun Rich List: http://www.hurun.net/CN/ArticleShow.aspx?nid=275 2011 Hurun Rich List: http://www.hurun.net/CN/ArticleShow.aspx?nid=407 2010 Hurun Rich List: http://www.hurun.net/CN/ArticleShow.aspx?nid=1470 2009 Hurun Rich List: http://www.hurun.net/CN/ArticleShow.aspx?nid=1508 ^ ultimate source: 2019: the National People's Congress (2948 people) was worth at least 3.4 trillion CNY (504 billion USD, average 168 million USD), according to the Hurun Report: 2018: the National People's Congress (2980 people) was worth at least 4.1 trillion CNY (650 billion USD, average 217 million USD), according to the Hurun Report: 2017: the National People's Congress (~3000 people) was worth at least 3.5 trillion CNY (555 billion USD, average 185 million USD), according to the Hurun Report: ^ author of Hurun report: # wealth of the leadership: change over time Hurun reports: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867653217852850206/unknown.png # sources of people for the npc NPC breakdown by employment sector (? or is this by which body supported them in the NPC): """一线工人、农民代表468名（其中有45名农民工代表），占代表总数的15.70%，提高了2.28个百分点；专业技术人员代表613名，占代表总数的20.57%，提高了0.15个百分点；党政领导干部代表1011名，占代表总数的33.93%，降低了0.95个百分点。""""""468 front-line workers and peasant representatives (including 45 peasant worker representatives), accounting for 15.70% of the total number of representatives, an increase It has increased 2.28 percentage points; 613 professional and technical personnel representatives, accounting for 20.57% of the total number of representatives, an increase of 0.15 percentage points; party and government leading cadre representatives of 1011, accounting for 33.93% of the total number of representatives, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points.""" #####c ##### # inequality: higher than euro countries #####o # income inequality increase trend over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/723914092829474876/unknown.png US income, top 1% & bottom 50%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/716824736574865438/unknown.png China income, top 1% & bottom 50%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/716824805168513044/unknown.png # wealth inequality increase Chinese wealth inequality between 1995 and 2015 rose to nearly US levels: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/731263692871827466/unknown.png # expansion of public programs China substantially expanded public program incidence between 2003 and 2016: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/731267200606011482/unknown.png """After General Secretary Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao ascended to power in 2003, they launched a series of policy measures designed to provide a basic social safety net for China’s disadvantaged populations. While these policies remain far from complete and have suffered numerous setbacks and inefficiencies, their significance should not be underestimated. For example, between 2006 and 2011, the percentage of China’s population covered by health insurance more than doubled, from 43% to 95%. Also, by 2011, the central government’s expenditure on rural and agricultural issues had reached nearly three trillion yuan, ten times the same expenditure in 2004.""" #####c ##### # poverty: sharply declining #####o efforts towards poverty alleviation have dramatically increased: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867606198253781002/0d5ace0169abf807aba9641cc818ea3a622be2af.png ^ dibao [minimum living standard] graph: #####c ##### # popular opinion on the ccp and capitalism #####o # chinese support for capitalism people in China support "free markets" more than even people in the USA: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636978405547573272/FT_14.png # chinese support for the ccp chinese support for the CCP is mostly tied to increased living standards (eg, healthcare subsidies) -- this suggests a lack of ideological committment: """Although state censorship and propaganda are widespread, our survey reveals that citizen perceptions of governmental performance respond most to real, measurable changes in individuals’ material well-being. Satisfaction and support must be consistently reinforced. For Chinese leaders at all levels, this is a double-edged sword. Citizens who have grown accustomed to increases in living standards and service provision will expect such improvements to continue, and citizens who praise government officials for effective policies may blame them when policy failures affect them or their family members directly.""" #####c ##### # dengism #####o # public wealth decline China's public wealth as a proportion of national wealth declined from 70% to 30%; Norway's increased from 30% to 60%; and the US declined from 15% to -5%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/731263680292978688/unknown.png # public investment decline leftist-ish: chinese public investment is 75% of total investment (though this gap is closing): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634646364575367196/china-3.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636540141934084096/wang-2.png # evaluating deng's reforms successful: We show that reforms yielded a significant growth and structural transformation differential. GDP growth is 4.2 percentage points higher and the share of the labor force in agriculture is 23.9 percentage points lower compared with the continuation of the pre-1978 policies. successful: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/731251109750112256/unknown.png successful: most of china's growth since Deng has come from capital growth and productivity growth, not labor growth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634646344190918656/china-2.png #####c #####c ##### # # china foreign policy # #####o ##### # foreign policy: foreign aid #####o # foreign aid: motivations summary by Brautigam, a 40-year scholar on this specific topic: China gives for basically the same reasons as other countries: """Like the US, China gives aid for three reasons: strategic diplomacy, commercial benefit, and as a reflection of society’s ideologies and values. The broad brush-strokes of foreign aid policy are set by political leaders, who shape aid as one of many instruments of foreign policy.""" """Yet, as I hope Chapters 2 and 3 will make clear, after Mao died China’s aid and economic engagement in Africa were shaped by two new (but related) influences. First among these was its own experience as an aid recipient and host to foreign investment. After China opened to the outside world and began to receive aid and investment from the West, and particularly from Japan, Chinese policymakers learned a new model of how aid could also serve China’s own development goals. The second influence was a pattern of state-sponsored engagement **more characteristic of the East Asian developmental state than of a communist dictatorship.**""" # foreign aid: scope foreign aid from China rose from ~$1bn in 2001 to ~$5bn in 2013, including itnernational organizations, grants & no-interest loans, and concessional loans: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/792574634457432104/unknown.png comparison with other countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/792576303613739049/unknown.png ##### # foreign policy: international lending #####o # scope China loaned $86.3bn from 2000-2014 to African countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/792582575456518164/unknown.png these loans are heavily concentrated in resource extraction and transportation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/792582988550242314/unknown.png # international lending: generosity summary: Chinese lending to developing countries is generally less concessional than official Western or multilateral creditors but much more concessional than the private market. This is a net good! longer quote: """Interest costs and maturities of Chinese loan are on average more favorable than borrowing on market terms. Data reported by debtor countries to the World Bank suggest that most Chinese loans are concessional, but with terms that may not be the most favorable for LIDCs.1 Most Chinese loans to LIDCs have fixed interest rates with a median rate of 2 percent, a grace period of 6 years, and a maturity of 20 years. Terms to LIDCs have been stable over time, corresponding to a median grant element of 40 percent. The median annual maturity of loans to EMEs fluctuates between 12 and 18 years, and the grace period between 3 and 5 years. A growing share of loans to EMEs have flexible interest rates, benchmarked to the 6-month LIBOR rate. Interest rates that Chinese lenders apply to LIDCs are on average more favorable than loans to EMEs but remain higher than those available from other creditors for countries at low and moderate risk of debt distress. The median loan from China fully disburses between 2.5 and 7.5 years from the year of commitment, in both LIDCs and EMEs. Yet, Chinese loans are often associated with other economic costs, such as those arising from collateralization, which are difficult to assess given limited availability of information.""" relative to the World Bank, Chinese loans were substantially less concessionary (meaning, offering better terms than private market loans): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/731260050856738856/unknown.png relative to the World Bank, comparable Chinese loans were substantially less generous in concessionary; they generally had higher interest rates, shorter length, and shorter grace periods: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/731260061325983815/unknown.png # debt diplomacy reading todo good studies https://archive.ph/xfhSv#selection-821.114-821.126 https://twitter.com/nicolaslippolis/status/1531731048563884035 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00396338.2022.2078054 https://sci-hub.ru/10.1080/00396338.2022.2078054 https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/jul/12/west-must-force-private-lenders-to-ease-africas-crippling-debt-say-campaigners https://debtjustice.org.uk/press-release/african-governments-owe-three-times-more-debt-to-private-lenders-than-china https://debtjustice.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Who-African-governments-debt-is-owed-to_Media-Briefing_07.22.pdf https://databank.worldbank.org/source/international-debt-statistics# # effects on popular opinion belt and road initiatives seem to win people's hearts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/731258344408481883/ft_2020.png # resource-backing: not that abusive, based in china's history much of Chinese international lending is backed by resource exports: """Our database identifies at least US$28.8 billion, one-third of the total loan finance, as secured by export commodities.""" one cause for this: no conversion to dollars necessary: """We see evidence of a parallel practice [to Japan financing developing in China in return for exports of coal and crude oil] in China’s zero-interest foreign aid loans to Africa in past decades: the Chinese commonly allowed borrowing governments to repay these RMB loans in export commodities.35 This barter-like arrangement freed both China and the host government from the higher transaction costs of having to do multiple conversions into dollars.""" another cause for this: increased security of the investment (for the Chinese lender): """The point of securities like these is not for the lender (or a Chinese company) to acquire ownership of an oil well, cocoa farm, railway system, or electrical grid, but to reduce the lender’s risks in a country without a good credit rating, or where projects lack sovereign guarantees (or where sovereign guarantees are not very meaningful). For example, Angola is the largest borrower of Chinese oil-secured loans, and China imports 49 percent of Angola’s oil, partly in repayment for those loans. Yet Chinese oil companies own only a little more than 10 percent of the oil being produced in Angola; Western companies like ExxonMobil and Total dominate Angolan oil investments dating back decades.39 An escrow account filled by commodity exports or an off-take of electricity sales increases security and lowers risk. This allows projects to be financed at a reasonable interest rate.""" #####c #####c ##### # # chinese state actions in xinjiang # #####o ##### # biased and usually terrible western sources #####o # early estimates: zenz 1 million (very biased) Merics: Zenz 2018: """A Uyghur exile media organization based in Istanbul published a table of re-education detainee figures for 69 counties in Xinjiang, reportedly leaked from a reliable source in the region’s public security agencies (Mizutani 2018). According to this source, the 27 counties in Khotän, Kashgar and Aqsu Prefectures, with a combined Uyghur, Kazakh and Kyrgyz population share of 90.2%, had 693,273 detainees in mid-February 2018. This would represent 12.3% of their Muslim population aged 20–79 (of 4.45 million).4 An RFA report cites the head of security in a township in Kashgar City as estimating the total number of detainees in Kashgar City at about 32,000, which would be 10.4% of its Uyghur and Kazakh population aged 20–79 (RFA 2018b). Another report cites local officials in Ghulja County as saying that their officially mandated adult internment rate was 10% (RFA 2018c). The leaked document put the total number of detainees in 68 Xinjiang counties, excluding regional and prefecture-level cities as well as the administrative units of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, at about 892,000 in spring 2018 (Mizutani 2018). Assuming a Muslim adult internment rate of 10% for cities with a majority-Muslim population and of 5% for cities where the Muslim population is less than 50%, Xinjiang’s total reeducation internment figure may be estimated at just over one million (approx. 1,060,000).""" CHRD 2018: interview with eight (!) Uyghur villagers: # probably good: NYT numbers (find source todo) New York Times: """Since 2012, when Xi launched an “anti-corruption” campaign that grew into a vast machine of arrest and detention, China has “investigated and punished 4.089 million people,” according to an official report from 2021. Some of the disappeared eventually go on trial in courts that have a ninety-nine-per-cent conviction rate; others are held indefinitely under murky rules known as “double restrictions.” The disappeared hail from every corner of life: Dong Yuyu, a newspaper columnist, was arrested last year while having lunch with a Japanese diplomat, and subsequently charged with espionage; Bao Fan, one of China’s best-known bankers, vanished in February, though his company later reported that he was “coöperating in an investigation carried out by certain authorities.” In September, Rahile Dawut, a prominent Uyghur ethnographer who had been missing for almost five years, was found, by a human-rights group, to be serving a life sentence on charges of endangering national security.""" #####c ##### # sources of graphs to replicate #####o HRW: NYT: Vox: Wikipedia: NPR: #####c ##### # United Nations UN Human Rights Council HRC position on Xinjiang #####o # 2022 vote UN 2022: overview of the 51st session: """N/A Debate on the situation of human rights in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China 2 A/HRC/51/L.6 Rejected by a recorded vote | 17 to 19, with 11 abstentions, 40th meeting, 6 October 2022""" UN 2022: HRC51 Extranet: UN: Voting Records of the CHR and HRC: no results for "Xinjiang": ^ Amnesty International is very mad at the UN vote: """The UN Human Rights Council has today failed the test to uphold its core mission, which is to protect the victims of human rights violations everywhere, including in places such as Xinjiang.""" # ohchr report OHCHR 2022: there is reasonable evidence to be concerned that VETC inmates face forced labor: OHCHR Assessment of human rights concerns in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, People’s Republic of China """With respect to the allegations of forced labour in the context of placements in VETC [Vocational Education and Training Centres] facilities, it should firstly be noted that the Government’s White Papers and other public statements show a clear link between VETC facilities and employment schemes. For example, the 2019 White Paper on “Vocational Education and Training in Xinjiang” states that “many of the trainees who have completed their studies in education and training centers have gone on to find employment in factories or enterprises”. Official statements refer to a “seamless connection” between the VETCs and employment.274 It also appears that companies in XUAR have been incentivised to hire ethnic minorities, 275 including former vocational education “trainees”. For example, an official “notice” from the Kashgar Public Information Office in 2018 stated that it had plans to transfer 100,000 individuals from vocational training to employment, while offering substantial subsidies to enterprises willing to hire “students”.276 The Government states that such employment is based on voluntary labour contracts in accordance with the law. However, the close link between the labour schemes and the counter-“extremism” framework, including the VETC system, raises concerns in terms of the extent to which such programmes can be considered fully voluntary in such contexts. As explained above, the VETC system amounts to large-scale arbitrary deprivation of liberty through involuntary placements in residential facilities and compulsory “training”,. Individuals in the system are, as a result, under a constant “menace of penalty”. For example, detainees in the VETC facilities told OHCHR they had to work within the VETC facilities as part of the “graduation process”, with no possibility of refusal for fear of being kept longer at the facilities.277""" # background: head of HRC Michelle Bachelet: United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights from 2018 to 2022: former Chilean Socialist Party member, has criticized Saudi Arabian invasion of Yemen, criticized Israeli settlements, asked US to suspend its sanctions during COVID, praised Chinese government poverty reduction efforts, and criticized human rights situation in Xinjiang: #####c ##### # high rate of arrests: confirmed by chinese state data #####o # my graphs the number of arrests in Xinjiang sharply increased in 2017: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/817455043652354058/xinjiang_count.png the proportion of arrests in Xinjiang versus the rest of China sharply increased in 2017: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/817455041852997652/xinjiang_ratio.png # chrd article: chrd is untrustworthy CHRD 2018: despite making up just ~1.6% of the Chinese population, fifth of all criminal arrests in China in 2017 took place in Xinjiang, despite the region only being home to a little over 20 million of China’s 1.3 billion people https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/813925870372388874/unknown.png Grayzone 2018: CHRD is headquartered in Washington, DC and funded by the National Endowment for Democracy: "CHRD’s 2015 form 990 discloses that $819,553 of its $820,023 revenue that year (99.94 percent) came from government grants. A measly $395 came from investments, with another $75 from other sources." CHRD is heavily funded by the US government. However, the claims CHRD makes are correctly quoted from Chinese state publications. This data demonstrates that the rate of criminal arrests and indictments sharply increased in Xinjiang relative to the rest of China in 2017. # census data 2010 census: Xinjiang made up 1.63% of China's population in 2010 and 1.52% in 2000; Tibet 0.21% in 2000 and 0.22% in 2010; Inner Mongolia 1.88% and 1.84%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/813925407707365386/unknown.png # state publications: supreme people's procuratorate work reports index page: 2008: 952583 criminal arrests, 1143897 criminal indictment: """全年共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人952583人,提起公诉1143897人,分别比上年增加3.5%和5.7%。""""""In the whole year, a total of 952,583 criminal suspects of various types were arrested and 1,143,897 were prosecuted, an increase of 3.5% and 5.7% respectively over the previous year.""" 2009: 941091 criminal arrests, 1134380 criminal indictments: """In the whole year, a total of 9,410,91 criminal suspects of various types were arrested and 1,134,380 people were prosecuted, a decrease of 1.2% and 0.8% respectively over the previous year.""" 2010: 916209 criminal arrests, 1148409 criminal indictments: """全年共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人916209人,同比减少2.6%;提起公诉1148409人,同比增加1.2%。""""""In the whole year, a total of 916,209 criminal suspects of various types were approved to be arrested, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%; 1,148,409 people were prosecuted, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%.""" 2011: 908756 criminal arrests, 1201032 criminal indictments: """全面贯彻宽严相济刑事政策,共依法批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人908756人,同比减少0.8%;提起公诉1201032人,同比增加4.6%[。]""""""A total of 908,756 criminal suspects of various types were approved in accordance with the law, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; 1,201,032 people were prosecuted, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%""" 2008-2012: 2642067 criminal arrests, 2965467 criminal indictments: """毒品犯罪等严重刑事犯罪嫌疑人依法决定批准逮捕2642067人，提起公诉2965467人[。]""""""Approved the arrest of 2,642,067 people and prosecute 2,965,467 people for crimes.""" ^ the 2008-2012 number does NOT line up with the numbers from 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011; either the 2008-2012 number is not comparable or is wrong 2013: 879817 criminal arrests, 1324404 criminal indictments: """全年共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人879817人，提起公诉1324404人。""""""Throughout the year, 879,817 criminal suspects of various types were arrested, and 1,324,404 were prosecuted.""" 2014: 879615 criminal arrests, 1391225 indictments: """批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人879615人，同比下降0.02%，提起公诉1391225人，同比上升5%。""""""[We ]approved the arrest of 879,615 criminal suspects of various types, a year-on-year decrease of 0.02%, and prosecuted 1,391,225 people, a year-on-year increase of 5%.""" 2015: 873148 criminal arrests, 1390933 criminal indictments: """全国检察机关共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人873148人，提起公诉1390933人。""""""Procuratorates across the country approved the arrest of 873,148 criminal suspects and prosecutions of 1,390,933 people.""" 2016: 828618 criminal arrests, 1402463 criminal indictments: """全年共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人828618人，同比下降5.1%；提起公诉1402463人，同比上升0.8%。""""""In the whole year, a total of 828,618 criminal suspects of various types were approved to be arrested, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%; 1402463 people were prosecuted, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%.""" 2013-2017: 4531000 criminal arrests, 7173000 criminal indictments: """我们牢固树立总体国家安全观，依法履行批准逮捕、提起公诉等职责，维护国家安全和社会稳定作用更加彰显。2013年至2017年，全国检察机关共批捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人453.1万人，较前五年下降3.4%；起诉717.3万人，较前五年上升19.2%。""""""From 2013 to 2017, procuratorial organs across the country approved the arrest of 4.531 million criminal suspects of various types, a decrease of 3.4% over the previous five years; prosecuted 7.173 million, an increase of 19.2% over the previous five years.""" ^ the above implies the following results for 2017: criminal arrests 1069802 = 4531000 - (879817 + 879615 + 873148 + 828618); criminal indictments 1663975 = 7173000 - (1324404 + 1391225 + 1390933 + 1402463) 2018: 1056616 criminal arrests, 1692846 criminal indictments: """共批准逮捕各类犯罪嫌疑人1056616人，提起公诉1692846人，同比分别下降2.3%和0.8%[。]""""""[Procuratorial organs] approved the arrest of 1,056,616 suspects of various types and prosecuting 1,692,846 people, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% and 0.8% respectively[.]""" ^ the above implies the following results for 2017: criminal arrests 1081490 = 1056616 / 0.977; criminal indictments 1706497 = 1692846 / 0.992 2019: 935432 criminal arrests, 1413742 criminal indictments: """批准逮捕各类犯罪嫌疑人1088490人、提起公诉1818808人，同比分别上升3%和7.4%。[。]""""""Approved the arrest of 1,088,490 criminal suspects of various types, and the prosecution of 1,818,808 people, a year-on-year increase of 3% and 7.4% respectively.""" 2020: 770561 criminal arrests, 1572971 criminal indictments: """着力推进更高水平的平安中国、法治中国建设，自觉在提升国家治理效能中担当作为。批准逮捕各类犯罪嫌疑人770561人、提起公诉1572971人。""""""Efforts to advance more High-level construction of a safe China and rule of law China, and consciously play a role in improving the effectiveness of national governance. Approved the arrest of 770,561 criminal suspects of various types, and prosecuted 1,572,971 people.""" 2021: 868445 criminal arrests, 1748962 criminal indictments: """坚决维护国家安全和社会安定。全年批准逮捕各类犯罪嫌疑人868445人，提起公诉1748962人，同比分别上升12.7%和11.2%。""""""Resolutely safeguard national security and social stability. Throughout the year, approved the arrest of 868,445 criminal suspects of various types, and prosecuted 1,748,962 people, up 12.7% and 11.2% year-on-year respectively.""" # state publications: tibet index page: 2021: 1536 arrested, 3424 prosecuted: """依法惩治各类刑事犯罪，批准（决定）逮捕1536人，同比增长37.3%，提起公诉3424人，同比增长35.7%。""""""Various criminal offenses were punished in accordance with the law, and 1,536 people were approved (decided) to be arrested, a year-on-year increase of 37.3%, and 3,424 people were prosecuted, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%.""" 2020: 1119 criminal arrests and 2524 criminal indictments: """深刻把握平安是最基本的民生需求，全年批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪820件1119人，同比下降28.7%和31.6%，提起公诉1932件2524人，同比分别上升6.2%、下降3.6%，以维护社会安全和公平正义凝聚人心。""""""Deeply grasping that safety is the most basic need for people's livelihood, 820 cases of various criminal offenses and 1,119 people were arrested throughout the year, a year-on-year decrease of 28.7% and 31.6%, and 1,932 cases of 2,524 people were prosecuted, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. Social security, fairness and justice unite people's hearts.""" 2019: 1635 criminal arrests and 2616 criminal indictments: """共批准（决定）逮捕各类涉嫌犯罪1150 件1635人，提起公诉1818件2616人，同比分别上升40.8%和52.2%。""""""A total of 1635 people were arrested for 1150 suspected crimes, and 2616 persons were prosecuted for 1818 suspected crimes, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.8% and 52.2% respectively.""" 2018: 1414 criminal arrests and 1752 criminal indictments: """共批捕各类刑事犯罪1414人，起诉1752人[。]""""""A total of 1414 people were arrested for various criminal offences and 1752 people were prosecuted[.]""" 2013-2017: 6966 criminal arrests, 8364 criminal prosecutions: """五年共批准逮捕刑事犯罪嫌疑人6966人、起诉8364人。""""""In the last five years, a total of 6966 criminal suspects were arrested and 8364 were prosecuted.""" 2008-2012: 9021 criminal arrests, 8010 criminal indictments: """五年来，共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪9021人，提起公诉8010人，比前五年分别下降14.4%和15.9%。""""""In the last five years, 9021 people were approved for criminal arrests and 8010 for criminal prosecution, down 14.4% and 15.9% compared to the previous five years.""" # state publications: xinjiang people's procuratorate work reports index page: 2008-2012: 81443 criminal arrests, 107555 criminal indictments: """新疆都市报讯（记者宋丽 逯风暴 温丽娜 卢子摄影报道）1月28日上午，在新疆维吾尔自治区十二届人大一次会议第二次全体会议上，自治区人民检察院检察长尼相·依不拉音作了自治区人民检察院工作报告。5年中全区检察机关共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人81443人，提起公诉107555人，其中，178名县处级以上领导干部落马。""""""In the past five years, the procuratorial organs of the whole district approved the arrest of 81,443 criminal suspects of various types, and prosecuted 107,555 people, including 178 leaders at or above the county level.""" 2014: 27164 criminal arrests and 34816 criminal indictments: """全区检察机关共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人27164人，提起公诉34816人[。]""""""The district’s procuratorial organs approved the arrest of 27,164 criminal suspects and prosecuted 34,816 persons, an increase of 95.7% and 59.3% year-on-year[.]""" ^ above implies the following for 2013: criminal arrests 13880 = 27164 / 1.957, criminal indictments 21856 = 34816 / 1.593 2015: 34568 criminal arrests, 49075 criminal indictments: """全区检察机关共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人34568人，提起公诉49075人[。]""""""The district’s procuratorial organs approved the arrest of 34,568 criminal suspects and prosecuted 49,075 persons, up 27% and 41% year-on-year[.]""" 2016: 27404 criminal arrets, 41305 criminal indictments: """全区检察机关共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人27404人，提起公诉41305人[。]""""""The district’s procuratorial organs approved the arrest of 27,404 criminal suspects and prosecuted 41,305 persons[.]""" 2013-2017: 330918 criminal arrests, 362872 criminal prosecutions: """五年来，全区检察机关共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人330918人，提起公诉362872人[。]""""""In the past five years, the district’s procuratorial organs approved the arrest of 330,918 criminal suspects and prosecuted 362,872 persons[.]""" ^ above implies the following for 2017: criminal arrests 227902 = 330918 - (13880 + 27164 + 34568 + 27404), criminal indictments: 215820 = 362872 - (21856 + 34816 + 49075 + 41305) 2018: 114023 criminal arrests, 135546 criminal indictments: """全年共批捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人114023人，提起公诉135546人。""""""In the whole year, 114,023 criminal suspects of various types were arrested and 135,546 were prosecuted.""" 2019: 63736 criminal arrests, 96596 criminal indictments: """程序行使检察权，共批准和决定逮捕各类犯罪36732件63736人，起诉64788件96596人[。]""""""Prosecutors approved criminal arrests for 36732 cases and 63736 people and approved criminal prosecutions for 64788 and 96596 people[.]""" 2020: 22386 criminal arrests, 48258 criminal indictments: """坚决贯彻总体国家安全观，坚持把社会稳定和长治久安总目标作为检察工作的总纲，共批捕各类犯罪22386人，起诉48258人，立足检察职能维护社会大局持续稳定。""""""Resolutely implement the overall national security concept, adhere to the general goal of social stability and long-term stability as the general program of procuratorial work, arrest 22,386 people for various crimes, prosecute 48,258 people, and maintain the overall social stability based on the procuratorial function.""" 2021: 26942 criminal arrests, 44603 criminal indictments: """一年来，全区检察机关共批捕各类犯罪12901件26942人，起诉28490件44603人，有力促进了平安新疆建设。""""""Over the past year, the procuratorial organs in the region have arrested 26,942 people in 12,901 cases of various crimes, and prosecuted 44,603 people in 28,490 cases, effectively promoting the construction of a safe Xinjiang.""" # state publications: inner mongolia autonomous region people's procuratorate index page: 2022: 21143 arrested 30162 prosecuted: """共批捕相关犯罪嫌疑人21143人、起诉30162人，较前五年分别下降19.7%和23.8%。""""""A total of 21,143 suspects were arrested and 30,162 people were prosecuted, respectively decreased by 19.7% and 23.8% compared with the previous five years.""" 2021: 9769 arrested 33518 prosecuted: """严厉打击严重侵害人身和财产权利、危害国家和公共安全刑事犯罪，批捕9769人、起诉30731人。""""""9,769 people were arrested and 30,731 people were prosecuted.""" 2020: 12178 arrested 33518 prosecuted: """秉持客观公正立场，宽严相济，追诉犯罪。全年共批捕各类刑事犯罪12178人，起诉33518人，不批捕3884人，不起诉4310人。""""""Adhere to an objective and fair stand, combine leniency with strictness, and prosecute crimes. Throughout the year, a total of 12,178 people were arrested for various criminal offenses, 33,518 were prosecuted, 3,884 were not arrested, and 4,310 were not prosecuted.""" 2019: 15545 criminal arrests, 32154 criminal prosecutions: """全年受理审查逮捕15545件，同比上升7.7%；受理审查起诉32154件，同比上升11.4%。""""""[Procuratorial organs] approved 15545 [criminal] arrests, an increase of 7.7%; approved 32154 [criminal] prosecutions, an increase of 11.4%.""" 2018: 15456 arrests, 34479 prosecutions: """全年批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人15456人，提起公诉34479人。""""""There were 15456 suspects in criminal offences, and 34479 were prosecuted.""" 2013-2017: 67283 criminal arrests, 112055 criminal prosecutions: """五年来，共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪案件51408件67283人，提起公诉112055件149056人。""""""In the past five years, a total of 67283 persons were arrested in 51408 criminal cases and 149056 persons were prosecuted in 112055 cases.""" ^ the above implies the following results for 2017: criminal arrests 14136 = 67283 - (12988 + 12939 + 13283 + 13937); criminal indictments 34830 = 149056 - (29812 + 29368 + 28704 + 26342) 2016: 12988 criminal arrests, 29812 criminal prosecutions: """依法批捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人12988人，起诉29812人[。]""""""[Procuratorial organs] arrested 12988 people as criminal suspects and prosecuted 29812 people [as criminal suspects.]""" 2015: 12939 criminal arrests, 29368 criminal prosecutions: """依法批准逮捕刑事犯罪嫌疑人12939人，提起公诉29368人。""""""[Procuratorial organs] approved the arrest of 12939 criminal suspects and prosecuted 29368 according to the law.""" 2014: 13283 criminal arrests, 28704 criminal prosecutions: """突出打击严重影响人民群众安全感的犯罪，共批捕各类严重刑事犯罪嫌疑人13283人，提起公诉28704人。""""""A total of 13283 suspects of various serious criminal offences were arrested and 28704 were prosecuted.""" 2013: 13937 criminal arrests, 26342 criminal prosecutions: """批准逮捕13937人，提起公诉26342人[。]""""""[Procuratorial organs] approved the arrest of 13937 people, and approved prosecution of 26342 people[.]""" 2008-2012: 81070 criminal arrests, 116014 criminal prosecutions: """五年来，共批捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人81070人、起诉116014人[。]""""""In the past five years, a total of 81070 criminal suspects were arrested and 116014 people were prosecuted.""" ^ the above implies the following results for 2012: criminal arrests 17429 = 81070 - (16725 + 15571 + 15963 + 15382); criminal indictments 32681 = 116014 - (24409 + 19283 + 20012 + 19629) 2011: 16725 criminal arrests, 24409 criminal prosecutions: """全年共批捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人16725人，起诉24409人，同比分别上升6.9%和21.0%。""""""In the whole year, 16725 criminal suspects of various types were arrested and 24409 were prosecuted, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% and 21.0% respectively.""" ^ above implies the following for 2010: criminal arrests 15571 = 16725 * (1 - 0.069), criminal indictments 19283 = 24409 * (1 - 0.21) 2010: missing! 2009: 15963 criminal arrests, 20012 criminal prosecutions: """全年批准逮捕刑事犯罪嫌疑人15963人，提起公诉20012人，同比上升3.8%和2.0%;""""""Approved the arrest of 15963 criminal suspects and prosecuted 20012, up 3.8% and 2.0% year-on-year;""" 2008: 15382 criminal arrests, 19629 criminal prosecutions: """全年共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人15382人，提起公诉19629人，同比分别上升13.2%和19.0%。""""""Throughout the year, a total of 15382 criminal suspects of various types were arrested, and 19629 were prosecuted, representing an increase of 13.2% and 19.0% respectively.""" 2003-2007: """五年来，共批准逮捕各类刑事犯罪嫌疑人62794人，提起公诉74749人，比前五年分别上升12.6%和28.0%。""""""In the past five years, a total of 62794 criminal suspects were arrested and 74749 people were prosecuted, up 12.6% and 28.0% respectively over the previous five years.""" #####c ##### # yearbooks #####o # arrests: china 2020 SPP (2021 Yearbook): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2021/html/E24-07.jpg Table 24-7 Arrests and Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2020) 2019 SPP (2020 Yearbook): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2020/html/E2407.jpg Table 24-7 Arrests and Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2019) 2018 SPP (2019 Yearbook): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2019/html/E2407.jpg 24-7 Arrests and Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2018) 2017 SPP (2018 Yearbook): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2018/html/EN2408.jpg Table 24-8 Arrests and Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2017) 2016 SPP (2017 Yearbook): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2017/html/EN2408.jpg 24-8 Arrests and Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2016) 2015 SPP (2016 Yearbook): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2016/html/2408EN.jpg Table 24-8 Arrests and Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2015) 2014 SPP (2015 Yearbook): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2015/html/EN2408.jpg Table 24-8 Arrests and Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2014) 2013 SPP (2014 Yearbook): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2014/zk/html/Z2408E.JPG Table 24-8 Arrests of Criminal Suspects and Defendants under Public Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2013) 2012 SPP (2013 Yearbook): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2013/html/Z2310E.JPG Table 23-10 Arrests of Criminal Suspects and Defendants under Public Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2012) 2011 SPP (2012 Yearbook): Table 23-18 Arrests of Criminal Suspects and Defendants under Public Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2011) 2010 SPP (2011 Yearbook): Table 23-18 Arrests of Criminal Suspects and Defendants under Public Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2010) 2009 SPP (2010 Yearbook): Social Services and Others > Table 22-18 Arrests of Criminal Suspects and Defendants under Public Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2009) 2008 SPP (2009 Yearbook): Table 22-18 Arrests of Criminal Suspects and Defendants under Public Prosecution Approved by People's Procuratorate (2008) # fertility: all regions John Stone graph: 2021 China Yearbook (2020): [NOT AVAILABLE] ^ confirms Zens' claims that data is unavailable: 2020 China Yearbook (2019): 2-8 Total Population by Urban and Rural Residence, Birth Rate, Death Rate, Natural Growth Rate and by Region (2019): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2020/html/E0208.jpg 2019 China Yearbook (2018): 2-8 Total Population by Urban and Rural Residence and Birth Rate, Death Rate, Natural Growth Rate by Region (2018): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2019/html/E0208.jpg 2018 China Yearbook (2017): 2-8 Total Population by Urban and Rural Residence and Birth Rate, Death Rate, Natural Growth Rate by Region (2017): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2018/html/EN0208.jpg 2017 China Yearbook (2016): 2-8 Total Population by Urban and Rural Residence and Birth Rate, Death Rate, Natural Growth Rate by Region (2016): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2017/html/EN0208.jpg 2016 China Yearbook (2015): 2-8 Total Population by Urban and Rural Residence and Birth Rate, Death Rate, Natural Growth Rate by Region (2015): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2016/html/0208EN.jpg 2015 China Yearbook (2014): 2-7 Total Population by Urban and Rural Residence and Birth Rate, Death Rate, Natural Growth Rate by Region (2014): http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2015/html/EN0207.jpg 2014 China Yearbook (2013): 2-7 Total Population by Urban and Rural Residence and Birth Rate, Death Rate, Natural Growth Rate by Region (2013): 2013 China Yearbook (2012): 3-7 Total Population by Urban and Rural Residence and Birth Rate, Death Rate, Natural Growth Rate by Region (2012): 2012 China Yearbook (2011): 3-5 Total Population by Urban and Rural Residence and Birth Rate, Death Rate,Natural Growth Rate by Region (2011): 2011 China Yearbook (2010): 3-4 Total Population and Birth Rate, Death Rate, Natural Growth Rate by Region (2010): 2010 China Yearbook (2009): 3-4 Total Population by Urban and Rural Residence and Birth Rate, Death Rate,Natural Growth Rate by Region (2009): 2009 China Yearbook (2008): 3-4 Total Population by Urban and Rural Residence and Birth Rate, Death Rate, Natural Growth Rate by Region (2008): # family size: all regions # xinjiang yearbooks 2021 Yearbook: 2019 Xinjiang Yearbook: # NOT the correct yearbook series for xinjiang province 2020 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2019 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2017 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2016 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2015 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2014 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2013 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2012 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2011 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2010 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2009 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2008 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2007 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2006 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2005 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2004 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2003 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 2010 Xinjiang Production Group Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 3-1 年末人口数及构成 Population and its Composition at the Year-end: 2010 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 3-3 人口出生率、死亡率、自然增长率 Birth Rate，Death Rate and Natural Growth Rate of Population: 2020 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 3-1 年末人口数及构成 Population and Its Composition at Year-end: 2020 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 3-3 人口出生率、死亡率、自然增长率 Birth Rate，Death Rate and Natural Growth Rate of Population: 2019 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 3-1 年末人口数及构成 Population and its Composition at Year-end [1952-2018]: 2019 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 3-3 人口出生率、死亡率、自然增长率 Birth Rate，Death Rate and Natural Growth Rate of Population [1953-2019]: 2003 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 3-1 年末人口数及构成(1978—2002年) POPULATION AND ITS COMPOSITION AT THE YEAR-END(1978—2002): 2003 Xinjiang Production Group Yearbook: 3-3 人口出生率、死亡率、自然增长率(1978—2002年) BIRTH RATE，DEATH RATE AND NATURAL GROWTH RATE OF POPULATION(1978—2002): # fertility: xinjiang 2021 Xinjiang Yearbook: 3-1 主要年份人口数及构成 [3-1 Population and Composition in Main Years], 1978-2019: #####c ##### # boarding schools #####o # boarding schools Diamond Packer 2021: need to verify these claims todo: """State-run, highly securitized, boarding schools and orphanages to confine Uyghur 103 children full-time, including infants. According to a Ministry of Education planning document, 104 the residential-school expansion was at the top of its list of priorities and, between 2017 and 2019, the number of children separated from their families and placed into state-run boarding schools in the region increased by 76.9%, from 497,800 to 880,500. The explicit goals of these 105 boarding schools are “to promote the teaching of the national standard language [Mandarin Chinese]... block the influence of the family's atmosphere on the children to the greatest extent and reduce the occurrence of ... listening to the scriptures at home.” The government set a 106 2020 goal of running one to two such boarding schools in each of Xinjiang’s over 800 townships. Under State custody, Uyghur children are being raised in Chinese-language 107 environments with standard Han child-rearing methods adopted by the State. The State is thus 108 forcibly transferring Uyghur children to State-run Han group settings. Expert witness Rian Thum has demonstrated that it is reasonable to conclude that the majority of Uyghur middle school students are now in residential schools and that the transfer of Uyghur children into Handominated facilities is not only a by-product of losing parents to mass internment but is an independent goal in and of itself. The systematic forcible separation of Uyghur children from 109 their families, combined with the widespread forcible prevention of Uyghur births and mass internment, threatens “the group’s capacity to renew itself, and hence to ensure its long-term survival” or existence (to use the language of the ICJ interpreting the Genocide Convention).110""" #####c #####c ##### # # soviet union / ussr # #####o ##### # historical context #####o # 1914-1917: world war 1 World War 1 (1914-1918) killed 1.3% of the population (2.25 million of 170.1 million Empire residents ) # 1917: revolution * 8 March 1917: February Revolution: Mass protests against food rationing begin: * 15 March 1917: Czar Nicholas II abdicates: * 15 March 1917: First provisional government appointed with 7 (38.9%) of 18 ministers from socialist parties: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/726494819425321031/unknown.png * 16 March 1917: Grand Duke Alexandrovich recognized interim governmetn and refuses to take the throne: * 1-6 May 1917: April Crisis: Foreign minister Milyukov informs Allied governments they will stay in the war; massive demonstrations lead to his removal and formation of a coalition government with the Petrograd soviet: * 16 June-7 July 1917: First congress of soviets: Bolsheviks get 105 (13.5%) of 777 partisans (temporary body) and 58 (18.1%) of 320 deputies (permanent body): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634528241440522279/unknown.png * 3-7 July 1917: Bolsheviks allegedly lead demonstrations-turned-riots in Petrograd; Lenin flees to Finland and Trotsky is arrested: * 1-19 July 1917: Kerensky begins July offensive against Entente troops in an attempt to raise morale: * 20-23 July 1917: Russian lines collapse against Entente: * 16–20 July 1917: "Bourgeois" ministers resign, new coalition government formed with 8 (53.3%) of 15 ministers from socialist parties: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/726494849443823736/unknown.png * 10-13 September 1917: Kornilov (assisted by British troops) mobilizes to destroy the Petrograd Soviet; Kornilov refuses provisional government orders to step down; Kornilov's incoming troops treated as a coup: * 14 September-20 November 1917: Third coalition government formed with of 6 (60%) of 10 ministers with parties: * 7 November 1917: Bolsheviks lead Petrograd soviet to begin insurrection: * 7-9 November 1917: Second congress of soviets: Bolsheviks got 60%, Left SR 15.4%, Mensheviks 11.09%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634529280226754560/unknown.png * 25 November 1917: Constituent Assembly's first election: SR got 37.6%, Bolsheviks 23.3%, all Ukrainian socialists 12.7%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/869454745029464104/assemblyresults.png """Various academic studies have given alternative results. However, all clearly indicate that the Bolsheviks were clear winners in the urban centres, and also took around two-thirds of the votes of soldiers on the Western Front. Nevertheless, the Socialist-Revolutionary party topped the polls on the strength of support from the country's rural peasantry. However, the peasantry were for the most part one-issue voters, that issue being land reform.""" # civil war the 1917 Russian Civil War (1917-1921) killed 7-12 million (4.1-7.1%) of 170.1 million: # world war 2: fatalities World War 2 (1941-1945) killed 26.6 million (15.6%) of the 170 million population: # world war 2: destruction World War 2 (1941-1945) eliminated 25% of the national wealth: World War II destruction: 31850 factories, 102766 farms, 216700 stores, 6000 hospitals, 83520 schools, 334 universities, 43000 libraries, 1.2 million urban dwellings (about 1/3), 65000 kilometers of railroad (about 1/3), 15800 locomotives, 428000 railcars, 137000 tractors [....] The total property losses on the occupied territories of the U .S.S.R., i.e., the losses inflicted on fixed and circulating capital funds, or the direct damage done to the state and the population by the destruction and plunder of state, cooperative, and personal property during the war, amount in pre-war state prices to 679 billion rubles, or 128 billion American dollars. These property losses amount to about two-thirds of the pre-war national wealth of the territories of the U.S.S.R. that underwent occupation. Comparisons: USA 2019, 6210 hospitals USA 2014-15: 98176 schools and 7151 universities USA 2017-18: 116867 libraries # world war 2: reparations reparations from Germany were near-worthless: """The material damage inflicted on the peoples of the U.S.S.R. by Hitler's Germany is compensated only in insignificant measure by the transfer of industrial equipment from Germany to the U.S.S.R. as reparations. The value of this equipment amounts in all to only 0.6 per cent of the above-mentioned direct property losses alone suffered by the U.S.S.R. during the Patriotic War.""" American lend-lease contributed about 5-10% of the Soviet war economy: """The pressure on resources was somewhat alleviated by foreign aid, which added approximately 5 per cent to Soviet resources in 1942 and 10 per cent in 1943 and 1944.""" net imports as percent of national income by year for UK, USA, USSA, Germany: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/561488053055520770/unknown.png #####c ##### # positive outcomes: economic growth #####o # gdp growth: fairly average the USSR had real GDP growth in line with the OECD average (comparable to Canada, Australia) between 1928 (first 5 year plan) and 1991 (collapse): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/551302474418618378/unknown.png # gdp growth under stalin: highly concentrated during periods of low repression Davies and Wheatcroft 2018: real growth beyond the Tsarist era was almost entirely concentrated in a brief moment between rapid collectivization and the Great Purge: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/969652246000328824/unknown.png Davies and Wheatcroft 2018: "forced industrialization" under Stalin following the Great Break achieved "industrialization without growth" through a variety of coercive measures: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1068727816578936952/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1068727826771099748/image.png # income growth Piketty et al 2017: the Soviet Union (and Russia) grew faster than the rest of the world: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/554537777568677903/unknown.png Russia and the Soviet Union saw faster income growth between 1905 to 1956 (184%, 3.6%/yr, + for the bottom 90%) and 1956 to 1989 (129%, 3.9%/yr, + for the bottom 60%) than between 1989 to 2016 (41%, 1.5%/yr, + for the top 10%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/554548432514056192/unknown.png # consumption growth from 1951-79, consumption growth in the USSR was roughly equivalent to consumption growth in the OECD: growth of consumption in the USSR was higher than the OECD average 56-60 (3.8:2.5), 66-70 (4.3:3.7), and lower 50-55 (3.1:3.3), 61-65 (2.1:3.7), 71-75 (2.6:2.8), 76-79 (1.7:3.1); the average USSR:OECD ratio was .944:1: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/570501272478941184/unknown.png from 1913-1975, the proportion of production dedicated to producer goods (against consumer goods) consistently increased: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643417880670502923/unknown.png # hours worked decline between 1913 and 1960, workers in Russia moved from 58.5-hour workweeks to 41.6 hour workweeks (-0.36 h/yr): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640988855675256872/captura-de-pantalla-de-2016-04-03-18-50-35.png Switzerland: from 1900 at 59h to 1990 at 41.6h (-0.19 h/yr), France: from 1913 at 62h to 1980 at 40.7h (-0.32 h/yr), Italy: from 1913 at 62.4h to 1990 at 39.6h (-0.30 h/yr), Belgium: from 1913 at 59.5h to 1970 at 39.9h (-0.35 h/yr) # paid leave length in 1986: the USSR averaged 22 days of paid leave: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/564495078001737731/unknown.png in 1996: the USA averaged 7.6 days of paid leave: # public housing the rate of shared households in the USSR was reported at 40% in 1960 and 20% in 1980 (though this probably undercounts shared households): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/592054060283068416/unknown.png reasonably comparable: the rate of shared housing in the USA was 29% in 1995 and 32% in 2017: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/592057500438888449/unknown.png reasonably comparable: the rate of parental-shared housing in Canada for 20-34 year-olds is about 30%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641979973980389376/c-g01-eng.png #####c ##### # positive outcomes: inequality reduction #####o # reduction of inequality the USSR vastly equalized income: the top 1% went from 18% to 4% (4x drop, 4x overrepresented) and the top 10% went from 45% to 25% (2x drop, 2.5x overrepresented): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571537256540536832/unknown.png before and after the USSR, the top 1% controlled 20% of income and the top 10% controlled 45% of income; during, they controlled 5% and 25%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/554548275055689728/unknown.png comparison: USA and Sweden (most equal country in the world): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/733495222821978112/unknown.png # mobility the societies of the USSR and Eastern Bloc had higher mobility before the transition from the communist era to the capitalist era: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/564802213826789406/unknown.png The hypothesis regarding the effect of the transition on intergenerational inequality in educational attainment is tested by introducing a dummy variable for the transitional cohort, and its interaction terms with parental education and occupational social class. With this regression specification in Model 4, Table 2, coefficients for social origins refer to the communist period. The characteristics of Model 3, particularly in terms of parental education, are largely maintained for individuals born between 1958 and 1972, which suggests that **there have not been radical changes in intergenerational social mobility patterns in post-communist societies**. Still, the coefficients for social origins and their interactions with the transitional cohort indicate that intergenerational inequality in educational attainment has been affected in the following ways: the interaction term between primary education and transitional cohort is statistically significant and has negative sign, which suggests that **the disadvantage associated with low parental education intensified in post-communist societies**. Nonetheless, the tertiary education-transitional cohort interaction coefficient indicates that **the advantage of having parents with a high level of education was simultaneously reduced**. Related trends are observed in relation to parental social class. In this case, the positive effect of salariat origin on individuals’ educational attainment declined, but the negative effect of working class origin intensified. In other words, **the gap between individuals from working and intermediate class origin widened during the transition**. This is in line with existing evidence that indicates that the workers were in privileged conditions in the communist era but that their situation deteriorated thereafter (Eyal and Townsley, 1995, Szelenyi, 2002). #####c ##### # positive outcomes: education expansion #####o # literacy eradication (likbez) the USSR rapidly increased literacy from about 44% after the civil war (1920) to about 87% in 1939 (2.26%/yr) and about 99% in 1959 (+0.6%/yr): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589579939976708137/unknown.png the USSR reached ~90% literacy faster than other European countries: USSR: 1913 at 40% to 1939 at 88% (26 years); UK: 1700 at 39% to 1889 at 90% (189 years); USA: 1700 at 49% to 1889 at 87% (189 years); France: 1800 at 37% to 1889 at 85% (89 years) https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589578801718099981/unknown.png # years of education the USSR rapidly increased years of education from 1.1 before the revolution (1917) to 1.5 (+36%) in 1927, 3.4 in 1937 (+126%), and 5.4 in 1947 (+42%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589580721618944001/unknown.png #####c ##### # positive outcomes: soviet contributions to science #####o # soviet firsts Soviet citizens were the first to develop fully synthetic music that could be played alongside film; it's also pretty trippy: https://youtu.be/Z7Zb4rso82M?t=126 Soviet citizens were the first to publicize images of carbon nanotubes: """In 1952, L. V. Radushkevich and V. M. Lukyanovich published clear images of 50 nanometer diameter tubes made of carbon in the Soviet Journal of Physical Chemistry. This discovery was largely unnoticed, as the article was published in Russian, and Western scientists' access to Soviet press was limited during the Cold War. Monthioux and Kuznetsov mentioned in their Carbon editorial: The fact is, Radushkevich and Lukyanovich [...] should be credited for the discovery that carbon filaments could be hollow and have a nanometer-size diameter, that is to say for the discovery of carbon nanotubes.""" Soviet citizens were the first to develop a commercial nuclear reactor: Soviet citizens were the first to develop remote-operated tanks: Soviet citizens were the first to develop an orbital mirror: #####c ##### # mediocre outcomes: investment failed to increase productivity #####o # investment growth between 1950 and 1980, investment in the USSR increased from ~15% to ~33% of GNP: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/570489616529096705/unknown.png between 1950 and 1979, investment in the USSR increased from ~15% to ~33% of GNP; in the rest of the OECD, it remained around 20%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/570543632650731520/unknown.png between 1950 and 1980-190, investment in the USA went from ~15% to ~18% of GDP: # bad investment decisions Allen 2001: Allen rejects the Weitzman-Easterly-Fisher hypothesis that TFP growth did not slow in the Soviet union and returns to capital slowed from insufficient labor: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641076509414522911/unknown.png """Productivity in these arguments was calculated with a standard Cobb-Douglas framework with constant factor shares like those in the West. Weitzman 1970 challenged this interpretation by estimating a production function for the USSR. He concluded that the Cobb-Douglas specification was incorrect, and that the Soviet experience was better represented by a CES function with an elasticity of substitution between capital and labour of .4. In this framework, the growth deceleration is due to diminishing returns to capital; there is not evidence of a fall in TFP growth. The growth slowdown, in other words, does not indicate poor institutional performance. Easterley and Fisher have redone the econometrics with more recent data and confirmed the elasticity of substitution. They have been reluctant, however, to exonerate Soviet institutions.""""""One indicator of the change is unfilled vacancies on the first shift, which rose from 1 per cent in 1960, to 4.9 per cent in 1970, to 7.3 per cent in 1975, then to 9.9 per cent in 1980, and finally hit 12.2 per cent in 1985 Rumer 1989, 199–200. In the 1970s a Gosplan research director reported that 10–12 per cent of the increment in real fixed capital was unutilized, owing to a shortage of labour Rumer 1989, 202. and that proportion could only have increased in the 1980s. The capital stock rose without a corresponding rise in GDP because there was no labour to operate the new capacity.""" Allen 2001: Allen's preferred hypothesis is that TFP growth did slow because the USSR's capital investment decisions were terrible: """Weitzman’s econometrics imply a value of 0.403 – a figure confirmed by Easterly and Fischer ~1995, 357! for the whole economy. But 0.4 is an unusually low value. Evidence for Japan and other advanced capitalist economies suggests a value of 1.0 or even greater ~Easterly and Fischer 1995, 359–61; Duffy and Papageorgiou 2000!. While simulations using an elasticity of substitution of 0.403 imply a growth slowdown, simulations with a value of 1.0 do not. With more substitutability between capital and labour, diminishing returns to capital are not substantial enough to cause stagnation, and this is why a high investment rate paid off in Japan but not in the USSR.""""""Weitzman and Easterly and Fischer speculate on reasons why the elasticity of substitution might have been lower in the USSR than elsewhere, without coming to firm conclusions. This is good; for, I will argue, the value of 0.4 is an illusion. The low measured value of the elasticity reflects massive errors in Soviet investment strategy rather than a real difference in technology. It was not purely happenstance that these errors occurred in the 1970s and 1980s; for the end of the surplus labour economy posed new management problems, and the party leadership bungled them.""" # bad investment decisions: siberia investment of the USSR in Siberia involved huge wastes of resources: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643430247840350219/unknown.png # failure of planning the USSR's non-mathematical, "command economy" planning was unable to handle increasingly complex production chains: Stalinist planners tried to resolve the problem of complexity inherent in a planned economy by concentrating on a limited number of sectors. Indeed, Gosplan planned only a few strategic industries, targeting the ministries and not individual companies. [....] In 1951, Gosplan’s Five-Year Plan was compiled for 127 products, while material balances, the main tool of planning, were prepared for 60 products, although there were millions of products in contemporary Russia (Gregory, 2004: 117, 152). [....] Accurate techniques like input-output tables or optimal linear programming, which could balance supply and demand, were never applied to Stalinist planning. Gosplan planned to produce goods or services on an aggregated, rather than disaggregated basis, so balancing the national economy through consistent planning was impossible from the start. In fact, Stalinist planning was not meant to achieve a balanced national economy: unbalanced growth was not a problem to be avoided but tolerated and even promoted. the USSR's incentives system encouraged playing it safe, not playing it well: From the point of view of suppliers, the willingness of Soviet managers to pursue costs savings through asset replacement is deterred by what a leading Soviet investment expert terms "self reproduction", the propensity toward the perpetuation of existing technology, which has assured sources of material supply and provides near-certain production bonuses. [....] Reliance on longstanding sources of materials supply to insure against external (to the enterprise or ministry) supply disruptions also slows technical advance.3 2 Centralized planning promises a producer an adequate allocation of necessary inputs but provides no guarantee of timely and sufficient delivery. As a result, a good deal of Soviet machinery is produced in small machine shops attached to the consuming organization rather than in large-scale machinebuilding ministries. Only the specialized ministries, however, can afford to support the research and testing facilities required to develop advanced technology. To the degree that the propensity toward vertical integration (self-sufficiency) prevails, Soviet industry forgoes the benefits of division of labor that characterize modern industry in market economies. [....] Technological backwardness is also explained by insufficient supplier initiative. In market economies, most technical progress at the plant level originates in sales pressure by equipment suppliers. The basic Soviet shortcoming is institutional. In the Soviet system, research and development is separated originally from production. The incentives for R&D organizations reward expenditures of budget allocations more than completion of projects or the satisfaction of consumer demand. # intensive and extensive growth until the 1980's, the USSR did not prioritize "intensive" growth: As both Soviet and Western observers of Soviet economic development have repeatedly said,' the traditional Soviet approach to growth has stressed the rapid infusion of labor, fixed capital, and raw materials into industry. Compared with the path followed by industrializing market economies, there has been proportionately far less effort to increase the productivity of either existing or new manpower and capital assets. Since 1960, the USSR-among the major industrial economies-has experienced the most rapid growth of employment and, along with Japan, the fastest growth of fixed capital stock. In sharp contrast, the Soviet Union has shown the lowest rate of increase in both labor and capital productivity (table 1). In official Soviet jargon the traditional approach is termed "extensive" and the alternative path of stress upon productivity as "intensive". While Soviet planners have continually accorded lip service to productivity objectives under the rubric of "hidden production reserves", they have embraced intensive development as a major policy focus only within the past decade. as a result, the USSR invested little into factory and machine replacement or modernization: In the mid-1970's, 56 percent of U.S. industrial investment was directed toward replacement and modernization. In the Soviet Union the proportion was only 29 percent in the late 1970's. While the U.S. proportion may be too high a standard for the Soviet Union, given slower U.S. industrial growth, some Soviet economists had recommended that the Soviet share should be doubled or tripled. The replacement share has in fact been steadily rising during the 1981-85 Five Year Plan, reaching 35 percent in 1984. [....] The advantages of an intensified replacement effort are several fold, according to special surveys carried out in the USSR. Labor productivity is said to be about 50 percent and capital productivity 86 percent higher than in new plant construction. These results reportedly were attained with cost savings of one half to two-thirds and with capacity being brought on stream 3-3.5 times as rapidly. [....] The accelerated retirement guidelines adopted in 1975, as noted earlier, have not been implemented. Official retirements for wear and tear, as reported in the annual statistical handbook, have shown no significant change. [....] During the 1970's the average age (number of years in production) of current machinery output rose significantly. The share of new products fell from 4.3 to 2.5 percent while the share of machinery in production for more than 10 years climbed from 20 to 28 percent. # research and development: military spending prioritized Allen 2001: military research remained innovative while civilian research fell behind: The increase in defence spending may have lowered productivity growth, however, by diverting R&D resources from civilian to military innovation. It is difficult to measure the rate of invention, but the available indicators suggest that it was declining in the USSR, at least for the civilian economy. The Soviets did publish considerable statistics on the number of new prototypes brought into use. While such numbers are always hard to interpret, Kontorovich ~1987, 1990! has argued that they indicate the volume of newly available technologies, and Amann ~1986! has pressed them into service. They show a decline in the absolute number of new inventions brought into use each year from the 1960s to 1985. Kontorovich ~1990, 267! has divided them into civilian and military innovations and argued that the fall was largely confined to the civilian sector. [....] If the Cold War was responsible for the drop in Soviet productivity growth, then it accounts for over half of the Soviet growth slowdown. TFP growth dropped from 1.5 per cent per year to 20.5 per cent between the 1960s and 1980–85. Reversing the productivity slowdown by adding 2 per cent to the 1980–85 GNP growth rate increases the latter from 2 to 4 per cent per year. This is still less than the 5.7 per cent growth of the 1960s, but certainly is a much better performance. between 1950 and 1990, the USSR spent 10-20% of its GDP each year on defense (about 2x that of the USA): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/594582157100580886/defchart.png a subsection of the Senate report on USSR underperformance mainly blamed poor managerial incentives: The explanations for lagging Soviet technological progress, with its unfavorable consequences for the policy of intensive development, lie mainly in managerial incentives, the institutio nal relationships between research and development and production, and the technological drain imposed the priority given to defense production. Technological progress in market economies depends upon both consumer and supplier initiatives. In the Soviet system, the influence of the consumer is weak, except in defense production where the initiative comes from the Ministry of Defense with reinforcement from the top leadership. about half of research and development funds and about half of new machine tools went to the defence industry: The eleventh five-year plan that was being developed by the CPSU reflected this preoccupation and concern. It gave a very high priority for overcoming the perceived lag with the West in electronics. The plan called for a rise in output of industrial robots from 13,000 to 28,000 and machine tool development centers from 2,500 to 10,700. In the first two years of the new plan, investment in engineering-sector facilities for research and development, testing, and evaluation was said to be 50 percent above the funding for the whole of the previous five years. And R&D funds were to be especially concentrated on high-tech projects. **The trouble was that the best Soviet resources in the field were being directed toward the military-industrial base. Half of the machine tools were going to defense enterprises, which also employed the best scientists. At least half of all research and development expenditures were for the military. And the Reagan defense buildup—particularly its emphasis on emerging technologies—meant that more resources needed to be shifted to defense.** [....] The temper of the times meant that Gorbachev would be devoting even more to defense than had been the case in the past. The new five-year plan called for more spending on advanced weapons. **As Gorbachev would later admit, the planned rate of growth for defense in 1986 through 1990 was almost 8 percent per year, twice the rate of national income growth.22 All told, defense expenditures would rise an astonishing 45 percent in the next five years.** # foreign aid (not strong reason for decline) aid to allies: $44 bilion By 1980, Soviet aid to its allies cost $44 billion a year, and arms spending consumed 25 to 30 percent of the economy. This drain on the Soviet economy exceeded by a factor of two to three what Western experts at the time estimated.681 # space programs (not strong reason for decline) space programs: 1965 $7.0 billion USA vs $5.3 billion USSR https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/543577417684484127/unknown.png #####c ##### # mediocre outcomes: agricultural efficiency #####o # food intake rise substantially nutrition quality went up after the 1917 revolution (including collectivization), according to conscript height data: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/540415342892285962/unknown.png For the Russian/Soviet data the actual historical trend is a matter of some dispute. Our evidence seems to support the conclusions of Allen rather than those of Wheatcroft. When two independent sources of investigation—deconvolution of adult heights on the one hand and Allen’s indices of wages and prices on the other, mutually agree, the plausibility of each is reinforced. Given however, that the deconvolution technique is new in the field, we have presented a second study using completely different data from Austria. Again we find that the inferred food availability from deconvolution conforms plausibly to other historical sources. We have come to the conclusion that it is possible to use of deconvolution to infer past diets. from 1960 to 1985, the USSR and USA had about equal median higher caloric intake (however, as the author notes, food was more expensive and lower quality [ie, less meat and dairy] in the USSR): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/562946516906409984/unknown.png the CIA document about USA / USSR food consumption: USSR and USA consume about as many calories, but USSR residents consume less meat, fish, sugar, dairy, and eggs (ie, "high-quality" food): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/476088526400651285/unknown.png # employment shift from agriculture from 1940 to 1989, the USSR's agricultural employment decreased from 54% to 19% (absolute decline: -.71%/yr, relative decline: ((19-54)/54)/(1989-1940)=-0.013%/yr); from : https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589725463841341441/unknown.png from 1990 to 2018, Russia's agricultural employment decreased from 14% to 6% (absolute decline: -.29%/yr, relative decline: ((6-14)/14)/(2018-1990)=-0.020%/yr): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589727627858935828/unknown.png # agricultural investment grew quickly from 1940 to 1986-9, the USSR substantially increased investment in agriculture from 10 to 20% of total investment: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589721814314516540/unknown.png this statistic doesn't seem comparable? worldwide investment in agriculture: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589726119968899082/unknown.png # agricultural efficiency grew poorly the USSR's agricultural sector only grew as quickly as the US's until the 70's and slower afterwards: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589725488038150144/unknown.png """In the 1950s and 1960s the growth of agricultural output in the USSR substantially exceeded the United States record. The gap was essentially due to the higher rate of increase of Soviet inputs, including a higher rate of retention of farmworkers in agriculture, for despite heavy Soviet investments the rate of increase in capital intensity of production was actually more rapid in the United States.""""""But what this meant was that, since the level of output per worker and of multifactor productivity was far higher in the United States to begin with, the static efficiency gap did not close.""""""What was worse, in the 1970s the dynamic efficiency of American farming improved a little (though not recovering the rate of improvement in the 1950s), while that of Soviet farming deteriorated further.""" after the USSR collapsed, fertilizer use dramatically declined but wheat yields per hectare flatlined: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642019406746222593/minfert.png eyeballing it, yield per hectare appears to increase about as quickly post-USSR as during the USSR (1953-2010): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589718050685583360/unknown.png # net food imports the USSR and Russia are both been net importers of food: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589922937038176266/unknown.png #####c ##### # mediocre outcomes: healthcare #####o # early lifespan greatly expanded the healthcare system of the USSR presided over an enormous rise in life expectancy at birth: <> the Semashko system of the USSR increased lifespan by 50% in 20 years (by the 1960's, lifespans in the USSR were comparable to those in the USA): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/473672000976584704/xRB5054.png life expectancy prior to World War 1 was 32 years: """Before the revolution annual mortality was 29.4 per 1000 and infant mortality 260 per 1000 births. In 1913 life expectancy was 32 years. The cholera epidemic of 1910 killed 100,000 people. A typhus epidemic between 1918 and 1922 caused 2.5 million deaths, and doctors were particularly affected. There was an outbreak of malaria in 1920. The Institute of Tropical Medicine in Moscow instituted a programme of registration of cases and free distribution of quinine. The famine of 1921/2 caused widespread starvation. As many as 27 million people were affected. Another cholera outbreak between 1921 and 1923 caused an estimated 13 million deaths. By 1926 life expectancy had reached 44 years.[4]""" # good emegency medicine the emergency medicine of the USSR was extremely high quality: """The emergency part of the ambulance system, the "Skoraya Pomosch", is comprised of specially equipped ambulances staffed by a physician, a feldsher, and a specially trained driver. These vehicles, radioconnected through a dispatch center, are even specialzied by cardiovascular, pediatric, psychiatric, neurological, and gynecological services. The ambulance system purports to be able to reach any citizen within 15 minutes in every major metropolitan area in the Soviet Union and within 25 minutes in most rural areas. In 1983, in Sochi, a Black Sea resort attracting 4 million vacationers per year, over 215,000 calls were received and answered within an average of 4 minutes[.]""" # ideology and early semashko system and stalinism Braun 2009: excellent quote: "either the lice will vanquish socialism, or socialism will vanquish the lice"; "It was only the German fascination for race and heredity which he did not share": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/922721189741342771/unknown.png Braun 2009: Weinberg 2007: discusses the partial embrace and then rejection of eugenics by the Soviet Union: Semashko 1946: no access: # inequality by class and politics the USSR had increasingly unequal healthcare: """Contrary to ideology, not all citizens in the Soviet Union, nor all healthcare delivery institutions, are equal. Class levels of medical care are represented in distinct systems, and variations in quality exist between hospitals and polyclinics for high level government officials, research institutes and teaching hospitals, other urban facilities, and outlying rural hospitals. Members of the Communist Party, residents of large urban areas, particularly Moscow, and those who hold the more privileged positions in the society have access to a series of polyclinics and hospitals that are superior to others in the country.""" # expenses over time healthcare in the USSR was remarkably cheap (for its results) -- between 1960 and 1984, healthcare represented just 5.6% and 4.7% of GNP: healthcare in the USA was not (for its results) -- between 1960 and 1984, healthcare represented 5.0% ($27.2bn of $545bn) and 10.0% ($405 of $4073bn) of GNP by 1989, the USSR spent 3.4% of GNP on healthcare (~90% paid by the state) and the USA 11.4%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/726535942793592862/unknown.png early healthcare in the USA covered very little: in the USA in 1965 (before Medicare, Medicaid) only about 2/3 of people had hospital or surgical insurance -- not even including primary, dental, pharmaceutical, etc.: """More than 70 percent of the population had some form of hospital insurance by 1965 (though less than one-half of the elderly population did), 67 percent had surgical insurance, and there was a growing market for major medical insurance (Health Insurance Institute, 1980). But few were insured for primary or out-of-hospital care. Of the members of the general population who reported they had “pains in the heart,” 25 percent did not see a physician (Andersen and Anderson, 1967).""" # failure to curb alcohol addiction ~1/3 of death in the Russia in 1980 (and today) was due to alcohol: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641980088535220235/72622498_vodka_deaths_464.png Gorbachev's anti-alcohol program cut mortality from ~11.5 to ~10 per 1000 per year, a 13% reduction: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/764194023874625566/nihms521051f1b.png # healthcare stagnation the USSR saw no reduction of infant mortality from the 1970 to 1986: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/726536594743361596/unknown.png in the 1980's, the USSR saw substantially lower life expectancy and higher infant and maternal mortality than the USA: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/922377815297507328/Untitled201.png starting in the 1960's, the USSR's healthcare system failed to see substantial gains: """In barely 20 years since World War II, the USSR matched 60 years of US and European health progress; however, dramatic and unusual reversals have emerged since the mid-1960s. Feshbach estimates that the crude death rate per 1000 rose 50% from 6.9 in 1964 to 10.3 in 1980. There has been a remarkable achievement in infant mortality reduction from 1950 to 1971, but the rate has apparently increased embarassing levels. The Soviet government has not reported health status data to the World Health Organization since the early 1970s.23 There is an acknowledged coronary disease epidemic; cancer-related deaths have significantly increased; and the category of accidents, poisonings, and injuries makes up the third major cause of death.9 Significant discussion of the nature and cause of these new mortality and morbidity patterns is beclouded by the absence of current Soviet government-issued data.""" starting in the 1960's, the USSR's healthcare system was unable to handle chronic illnesses and faced systemic underfunding and shortages: [W]hile the early Soviet healthcare system (early in this case largely means pre-WWII, and sometimes even pre-1930) was well prepared to deal with fractured bones and cholera, it was poorly equipped to deal with complicated conditions and mental illnesses. This approach, however, still allowed Russian (as it varied between national republics) life-expectancy to peak at or around 70 years in the mid 1960s, not far from the Western European averages at the time. This translates to around 64 years for men and 73 years for women (with the corresponding figures for France and the US in 1965 being approximately 67.5 and 66.8 for men, and 74.7 and 73.7 for women respectively). [....] From that point onward сardiovascular diseases became one of the primary causes of non-violent death in the Soviet Union. This is the trend that was noted across the industrialized world, with low rates of infectious diseases, and growing rates of cardiovascular diseases and cancer. [...] Increases in substance abuse also started to take a toll. The amount of resources devoted to healthcare did not increase accordingly (it is estimated that it stayed relatively constant at around 2-3% between 1960 and 1970). In comparison, in United States it increased from 5% in 1960, to around 8% in 1983. As a result of that, as well as the start of the decline of the Soviet economy as a whole, in the early 1970s Soviet Union became the only major industrialized nation that experienced a decline in life expectancy at that time (it fell to around 63-64 years in 1982), with an increase in the gap between males and females (an average male was expected to live around 10-12 years less than an average female at the time). # post-collapse mortality privatization in the former USSR and Eastern Bloc was followed by substantial increases in mortality (~20%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642019550761844769/1-s2.png however, much of this decline was due to the repeal of Gorbachev's anti-alcohol programs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/726530629113741423/figure1bfinal.png #####c ##### # mediocre outcomes: sexism and sexuality #####o # gender pay gap in the 1980's, women were paid about 70-80% of male counterparts -- comparable to the gender wage gap found in OECD countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/562959204969611266/unknown.png """The gender wage gap we have found in Taganrog in 1989 is of similar size to those reported by Ferber (1991), Rosenfeld and Kalleberg (1991), and Blau and Kahn (1992), for various OECD countries. It is smaller than those for Japan, the UK or US, but larger than for others, particularly the Scandinavian countries.""""""It seems that the attempt by women to cope with their 'dobule burden' by working fewer hours was encouraged by wage policies for a key category of workers. This -- very partial -- alleviation of the 'double burden' should be seen in the context of the 'demographic problem' -- the great concern of the Soviet leadership about low birth-rates in the 1960's and 1970's, and the simultaneous need for highly educated female labor power. Fundamental change in gender roles and in the gender division of labour, including that in the household, was never seriously proposed (Posadskaya, 1994). Feminism remained a heresy, and the increase in quality and quantity of household goods and public services, constantly promised to Soviet women, remained a dream.""""""Formally, the Soviet wage-system was based on productivity -- schooling, skill, efficiency, and 'importance for the national economy'. Yet, there appears to be a systematic undervalution of work considered to be 'feminine'.""" after transition, MTF see reduced wages and FTM see increased wages: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/735184420616798268/unknown.png n=46, 16 mtf & 27 ftm """These estimates imply that male-to-female respondents (Δmalei = -1) lose about 31 percent of their earnings after their gender transition (-0.107 - 0.206 = 0.313). Female-to-male respondents (Δmalei = +1) are estimated to gain about 10 percent in earnings following their gender transition (-0.107 + 0.206 = 0.099).""""""Analyzing the earnings of transgender workers before and after their gender changes, we find that MTFs experience a substantial and statistically significant decrease in earnings while FTMs experience either no change or a slight increase. These findings suggest that the male gender carries a workplace benefit that cannot be carried over in a gender transition.""" # sexuality liberalized substantially over time (research is low-medium quality) early-middle USSR: interviews with middle-class urban Russian women suggested that the key driver for sex and relationships was natalism (for those born 1920-45) and natalism plus romance (1945-65): """Two Russian sociologists, Anna Temkina and Elena Zdravomyslova, conducted in-depth, biographical interviews with two sets of middle-class Russian women in 1997 and 2005.""""""[They] found that the Soviet “silent generation” (those born between 1920 and 1945), primarily related to the pro-natalist script, meaning that sex was something you endured in marriage to have babies. Love and pleasure had nothing to do with it. And even though Soviet women had access to abortion again after 1955, the lack of birth control and the double burden of work and family responsibilities conspired to depress sexual function in many women. There is no doubt about it: for this generation, Soviet sex sucked.""""""[They] found that middle-class urban women born between 1945 and 1965 described a marked move away from the pro-natalist script. Although the pro-natalist view of sexual relations continued, it was complemented by two new ways of talking about sexuality: romance and friendship. The emergence of the romantic script was the result of a larger shift in Soviet public narratives about sexuality.""""""This romantic script of sexuality is exactly what early socialists such as August Bebel and Alexandra Kollontai would have envisioned for a society in which economic considerations had less influence on the choice of an amorous partner.""" middle-late USSR: interviews with middle-class urban Russian women suggested that, in the late Soviet period (1965-89), the key driver for sex and relationships was romance plus friendship: """The other way to describe sex that began to emerge among middle-class women in the late Soviet period is the friendship script. Unlike what we would call “friends with benefits” — uncommitted, recreational sex with a partner of the opposite sex — the Soviet friendship script described sex that occurred in a meaningful relationship between two people who worked together or shared a social circle, with the partners using sex as a way to show each other affection and respect. This friendship script presumably arose because women had access to their own resources and didn’t depend on men to provide for their material needs. Because some urban Soviet women felt secure in their economic position, sexuality lost its exchange value and became something to be shared.""" post-USSR: interviews with middle-class urban Russian women suggested that, after the fall of the Soviet Union (1991-2005), sex was re-commodified and re-coupled with material gains: """If sexual economics theory is on the right track, you would guess that the introduction of free markets and the rapid dismantling of the social welfare state after the collapse of the USSR would precipitate a return of a worldview in which women’s sexuality is once again a commodity. And this is exactly what Temkina and Zdravomyslova found in their 1997 and 2005 interviews with women of the post-Soviet generation. In addition to the “hedonistic script,” in which sex is purely physical for the purpose of experiencing individual pleasure, often assisted by sex toys and other products that can be purchased in a capitalist economy (a script absent, for obvious reasons, in the Soviet era), they note the emergence of something they called the “instrumental script,” which became ubiquitous after the advent of free markets.""""""The commodification of women’s sexuality in Russia could be observed in the dramatic increase in sex work, pornography, strategic marriages for money, and what the authors call “sponsorship,” whereby wealthy men sponsor their mistresses. According to Temkina and Zdravomyslova, this instrumental script was “very seldom found in the narratives of sexual life” of the older women who grew up in the Soviet Union.""" #####c ##### # negative outcomes: political authoritarianism #####o # contemporary descriptions of elections: antagonistic Brailsford 1939: Russia is totalitarian under Stalin: """Stalin ... has compelled us to pass the judgement we had hitherto refused to register. His Russia is a totalitarian state, like another, as brutal towards the rights of others, as careless of its plighted word. If this man ever understood the international creed of socialism, he long ago forgot it. In this land the absolute power has wrought its customary effects of corruption.""" ^ H. N. Brailsford: British leftist: # soviet union as authoritarian, but not totalitarian POLITY5 description of the Soviet Union: the USSR and most other ML states were not pure autocracies, because the mass parties involved mass participation (and therefore, some de facto level of democracy), but the institutions those party members staffed were autocratic in the extreme: """The revolutionary Soviet state in Russia provided a new model of autocracy which combined democratic forms--a mass party and nominally representative institutions--with near-absolute state control of social, economic and political life. In the middle run the new model was proven, in Europe and China, to be almost as resilient as the Western democratic forms, although less efficient for some social and economic purposes. The largely peaceful, post-1990 transformations of Soviet states to more liberal democratic forms of governance appears to authenticate the democratic, normative element in this model and its influence on the quality of authority transition.""" # freedom of speech under stalin: thin Priestland 2002: Soviet democracy in the 1920s allowed workers to criticize their bosses, but not the party: """But the effects of ‘democratization’ lower down in the hierarchy, and particularly in the workplace, were probably more worrying to the leadership. In his memoirs, Viktor Kravchenko, then the editor of a factory newspaper in the Ukraine, remembered that ‘within the limits of the party line’, ‘considerable freedom of speech was possible’; while nobody would dream of criticizing the party leadership or the General Line, ‘attacks on the factory administration, trade union functionaries and party officials, exposés of specific faults in production, were allowed’.33 This form of ‘democratization’ may not have threatened the regime, but allowing workers to criticize bosses and the party rank and file to criticize local bosses undoubtedly undermined labour discipline and disrupted the economy.""" # one candidate and one party per seat Priestland 2002: Soviet democracy in the 1930s would have initially allowed for multiple candidates per seat, but that was withdrawn by 1937: """Stalin’s constitution of 1936 had introduced the secret ballot and enfranchised ‘class alien’ groups who had previously been deprived of the vote, such as former kulaks and priests, and elections to the Supreme Soviet were organized on the basis of the new rules for December 1937.38 Initially they were to be multi-candidate (although not, of course, multi-party) elections, and Stalin seems to have hoped that they would encourage significant ‘criticism from below’. However, by the summer of 1937 Stalin seems to have become worried that the newly enfranchised would use their rights to challenge the regime, and that criticism of individual bureaucrats in the Party would encourage an attack on the Party itself. The leadership responded by rounding up and killing hundreds of thousands of suspicious ‘class aliens’ and by changing the election rules to make provision for only one candidate per seat.39""" # list of soviet elections Elections in the Soviet Union: 1922: Congress: 2214 seats, 2082 Communists, 127 independents, 2 Poale Zion, 2 Georgian Socialist-Federalist Revolutionary Party, 1 anarchist: ,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1922_Soviet_Union_legislative_election> 1924: no results given: 1925: no page: 1927: no results given: 1929: no results given: """The elections were noteworthy for their rowdiness and elements of political opposition. Within the Communist Party, the Left Opposition attempted to run rival candidates against the officially nominated Communist candidates, while outside the party the Russian Orthodox Church attempted to create an organized opposition with religious candidates. Kulaks, Tolstoyans, and Baptists also were active in illicit anti-Communist electoral campaigning. Peasants demanded the creation of "peasant unions" on an equal footing with urban trade unions, and urban workers complained that Communist officials had become a new privileged class. Ethnic strife and the Soviet government's financial support of Comintern were also issues raised against the official candidates. Marches in opposition to the official candidates were held and in some areas in the provinces Communist officials were physically attacked.""" 1931: no page: 1935: no page: 1936: no page: 1937: Union: 569 seats, 461 Communists, 108 independents; Nationalities: 574 seats, 409 Communists, 165 independents: 1946: Union: 682 seats, 576 Communists, 106 independents; Nationalities: 657 seats, 509 Communists, 148 independents: 1950: Union: 678 seats, 580 Communists, 98 independents; Nationalities: 638 seats, 519 Communists, 119 independents: Communists: 1954: Union: 708 seats, 565 Communists, 143 independents; Nationalities: 639 seats, 485 Communists, 154 independents: 1958: Union: 738 seats, 563 Communists, 175 independents; Nationalities: 640 seats, 485 Communists, 155 independents: 1962: Union: 791 seats, 604 Communists, 187 independents; Nationalities: 652 seats, 490 Communists, 162 independents: 1967: Union: 767 seats, 573 Communists, 194 independents; 750 seats, 568 Communists, 182 independents: 1970: Union: 767 seats, 562 Communists, 205 independents; Nationalities: 750 seats, 534 Communists, 216 independents: 1974: Union: 767 seats, 562 Communists, 205 independents; Nationalities: 750 seats, 534 Communists, 216 independents: 1979: Union: 750 seats, 549 Communists, 201 independents; Nationalities: 750 seats, 526 Communists, 224 independents: 1984: Union: 750 seats, 551 Communists, 199 independents; Nationalities: 750 seats, 521 Communists, 229 independents: 1989: under demokratsiya, first election with multiple candidates per constituency, albeit all from the Communist Party: Congress (1/3 CPSU, 1/3 Nationalities, 1/3 demokratsiya) had 2250 seats, 1958 Communists, 425 independent: 1990: only in Russia: four groups of candidates ("Traditional Leninist communists, reformist communists supporting Mikhail Gorbachev's policies, Russian nationalists/neo-Stalinists, and democrats"), with two candidates in 97% of seats (ie, very few uncontested seats): ^ source for all of the above: Nohlen and Stöver 2010: TODO unavailable # contemporary descriptions of soviet elections: brailsford Brailsford 1927: the 1927 Soviet elections were totally devoid of any alternate parties, any opposition press, any lists of opposition candidates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169414991162646599/image.png?ex=65555194&is=6542dc94&hm=b504e727ca79f95b6681902ce670eed62ffa9ad08a58400794c19539de5dbd80& How the Soviets Work """A General Election was going on in Russia during my stay this year. Save for the reports in the news-papers, one would hardly have suspected it. Experience has bred in me a great respect for Russian achievements in every form of publicity, and I found myself searching the walls of Moscow for posters and cartoons. Nothing of the kind was to be seen. It was only after a minute search that I did discover, posted up on the door of a public building, here and there, a sober document known as a nakaz, in which the Communist Party of Moscow gave an account of its administration during the past year, concluding with the promises, couched in somewhat dry and conventional language, which in all countries are expected on these occasions. For any rival document, for any answering manifesto, for any of the competing jibes, witticisms, invectives, and slander, which in other countries are usual at such moments, one would have looked in vain. [....] When one has placed it on record that no organized political party is allowed to exist in rivalry with the Communist Party, one has said almost all that need be said about these elections. The "Left" social-revolutionary Party, and the "Mensheviks" (Minority Social Democrats), did, indeed, survive for a time as tolerated rivals during the early years of the revolutionary period, but both of them have long ago disappeared "underground." There is no organization which could compile any alternative list of candidates, and if by mischance this were to happen in one electoral area, there could be no arrangement, even by clandestine means, to present lists of candidates of like opinions all over Russia. It might be contended that in theory this possibility does exist, but without the right to issue rival newspapers freely, or to print controversial leaflets, of what value would such a right be?""" Brailsford 1927: Soviet elections function like municipal elections, which select administrators of the state rather than its politics: How the Soviets Work """No large issues of policy are ever settled at a Soviet election. When necessity does require a sharp change of policy, it is invariably within the ranks of the Communist Party, and not at the elections for the Soviets, that the controversy is fought out. The business of an election is rather to choose persons who will carry out the day to day work of administration. The entire structure of the Soviet system lends itself naturally to this limitation. Only the local Soviets (the word, of course, means simply "Council") at the basis of the pyramid are directly elected by the masses of the citizens. The national and federal Soviets at the apex of the system are chosen by indirect election, and to these alone belong legislative functions and the right to approve or reject any large change in national policy. [....] The atmosphere of a Soviet Election in Moscow is, accordingly, rather nearer to that of an English municipal election than to that of a Parliamentary General Election. The problem is to choose practical men and women who will administer with good sense, in accordance with the prevailing views and interests of the electors. They must be in sympathy with the accepted system, but they are not necessarily members of the Communist Party. In the country, indeed, though rarely in the towns, the majority in the lower Soviets is usually "non-party," a phrase which usually implies some degree of sympathy with the Communist Party short of membership or the acceptance of its discipline. When one grasps these more or less inevitable limitations, the method by which the members are chosen seems rather more natural and rather less unreal.""" Brailsford 1927: gives a detailed example of how the election works within a Soviet textile factory: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169414324004061204/image.png?ex=655550f5&is=6542dbf5&hm=4e15592798fef1d6f411d25a107f5106a1aac8275c656412f5ee23e62a92d939& How the Soviets Work """Let us see, then, how they voted in the "Three Hills" mill which we have already explored. [It was by accident rather than design that I chose a textile mill for study. The fighting and ruling forces of the Soviet State were drawn rather from the metal workers.] On the walls of the factory, when I visited it, some days before the actual election, two lists of candidates had been posted, who sought election to the Moscow City Soviet, and to the less important rayon (ward) Soviet. There were also shorter lists of "substitutes," who would take the places of the elected members in case of death or prolonged absence on other duties. The factory had the right to return one delegate for each 600 of its workers; its allowance was, in fact, fourteen members. [....] The remaining names were all those of workers or former workers in the factory. Seven of the fourteen were, as the list showed, members of the Communist Party; one was a member of the Communist League of Youth, and the rest were "non-party." Three of the fourteen were women. Here, then, was the official list, containing a bare majority of professed Communists presented to the Electors for their ratification. There was no alternative list. By what method had it been compiled? The first step is that each member of last year's Soviet (the elections are annual) who desires to stand again, presents a report on his or her activity. A meeting then takes place between the Works Council and three hundred delegates, who represent small groups of the various categories of workers. At this meeting names are put forward, and there often follows a thorough discussion of the record and reputation of each. There is usually a vote on each name. In this way the first draft of the official list is compiled, under the supervision of the Works Council. It then goes before separate meetings of the various crafts in the factory, and at these it may be modified. In. its final form it is a selection presented by the Works Council to a general meeting of all the workers in the factory. At this meeting it is still theoretically possible to oppose any name in the list and to put forward another name to replace it; but of this right the electors rarely avail themselves, for the good reason that the preliminary procedure by which the list is prepared, does furnish some guarantee that it corresponds, on the whole, with the wishes of the electors. They are not consciously settling big issues of national policy, nor are they even directly choosing legislators. They are choosing average, trustworthy citizens, who will see that the administrative machine of the city runs efficiently for the common good of the working population. The atmosphere of the election and, indeed, of debates in the Soviets themselves, is strangely remote from "politics" as Western democracies conceive them. A big family, animated by a single purpose, sits down on these occasions to administer its common property.""" Brailsford 1927: the unfree system of the Soviet Union resulted from its origins in a coup, in a civil war, and in bloodshed: How the Soviets Work """The underlying fact which explains this curiosity in elections is that the political system which prevails in Russia is not open to debate. It was set up by a coup d'etat. It had next to be defended against armed opponents in the Civil War. It became the accepted basis of political and economic life, because during this civil war, after bitter experience of the alternatives, the masses of the population did on the whole rally to it, did on the whole defend it, at a terrible cost in blood and suffering, and did on the whole acquiesce in the leader-ship of the Communist Party. What was won at such a cost in life and treasure, that Party will not expose to the hazards of argument, or the chances of the voting urn. On that point the rulers of Russia are as frank as they are determined. Whether in fact a free election, preceded by an equally free period of public controversy, would result in a majority for the system, one can only conjecture. My own belief is that a decided majority would ratify it. The question, however, is academic; the experiment will never be tried.""" # great purge: politburo deaths 1917 Politburo of 1917: * Lenin (died naturally 21 January 1924) * Trotsky (assassinated 1940 August 20-21) * Zinoviev (executed 1938 March 15) * Kamenev (executed 1936 August 25) * Sokolnikov (executed 1939 May 21) * Bubnov (assassinated 1938 August 1) * Stalin (head honcho) # great purge: politburo deaths 1919 Politburo of 1919: * Lenin (died naturally 1924) * Trotsky (executed 1940 August 20-21) * Kamenev (executed 1936 August 25) * Krestinsky (executed 1938 March 15) * Stalin (head honcho) # contemporary reactions to khrushchev's secret speech CPUSA 1957: statement by the National Committee: "the crimes against innocent people perpetrated under Stalin's leadership are, in fact, alien to socialism. They were an intolerable hindrance to the advance of socialism" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1132792337903407135/image.png Statement of the National Committee, C.P.U.S.A. June 24, 1956 """The State Department wants the American people to believe that the tragedies, crimes and injustices which took place during the Stalin era are evils which are inherent in socialism. **But the crimes against innocent people perpetrated under Stalin's leadership are, in fact, alien to socialism.** They were an intolerable hindrance to the advance of socialism. Socialism is dedicated to the liberation of mankind from social injustice and to releasing the full capacities for the flowering of humanity. **It requires an ever-expanding democracy, the growth of human freedom and personal liberties, the development of conditions which will ultimately eliminate altogether the use of force in the relations be tween people.**"""" Fast 1957: Howard Fast, CPUSA member and writer for the Daily Worker: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1132794503577731072/image.png The Naked God: The Writer and the Communist Party """“I wonder if there is any comrade here who can say now, out of what we know and have seen, that if our own Party leaders had the power of execution, he or she would be alive today?” They all looked at me, but no one broke the silence. We had come to the end of a road, and we knew by what grace we were alive. We knew it—and oh, what a terrible knowledge that was. Each one according to his talent and ability—some better, some worse—had given his life to the cause of mankind, the brotherhood of man—and we knew that for this the reward was death.""" John Gates, CPUSA editor of the Daily Worker: """there was more liberty under Franco's fascism than there is in any communist country""" --> see below and Gates 1958: The Story of an American Communist # waves of executions Wheatcroft 2002: Russia and the Soviet Union experienced six waves of mass executions: after 1905, during the revolution in 1917-1921, during the famine in 1930-31, during the Great Purge in 1937-38, during World War 2 in 1942, and after the war in 1952: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/854117733154291762/unknown.png # death rates before the ussr Wheatcroft 2002: comparing Russian and British execution rates before the 1917 revolution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/854121465611943967/unknown.png # collective leadership in the soviet union: cia documents and "dictatorship" summary: One CIA report says that Stalin was not a dictator per se but rather the captain of the team of elite Soviet leaders who controlled the country. (Others call him a dictator.) It should be noted that "collective leadership" does not imply that said collective leadership was democratically selected! CIA 1956: calls Stalin a dictator, suggests Khrushchev et al were scarred / traumatized by Stalin's dictatorship and thus returned to "collective leadership": THE KHRUSHCHEV ATTACK ON STALIN """The vehemence of Khrushchev's attack on Stalin before the 20th Con- gress of the CPSU suggests that Khrushchev and his colleagues bear pro- found psychological scars from their experience with the naked power of a dictator. Having lived under a common terror., they wish to pre- vent its recurrence by establishing a greater degree of collective rule. But the history of totalitarianism shows that this tenuous bal- ance of power at the top of the pyramid cannot be maintained and there is no warrant in Soviet experience for the new leaders' success.""" CIA 1968: THE STALIN ISSUE AND THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP STRUGGLE ^ CIA 1968: annex for above: INTELLIGENCE REPORT - ANNEX: THE STALIN ISSUE AND THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP STRUGGLE, 17 JULY 1968 CIA 1955: says that collective leadership existed under Stalin, says that he was "captain of a team" rather than a dictator: COMMENTS ON THE CHANGE IN SOVIET LEADERSHIP """Even in Stalin's time there was collective leadership. The Western idea of a dictat:br within the Communist setup is exaggerated. Misunderstandings on that subject are caused by lack of comprehension of the real nature and organization of the Communist power structure. Stalin, although holding wide powers, was merely the captain of a team and it seems obvious that Khrushchev will be the new captain. However, it does not appear that any of the present leaders will rise to the stature of Lenin and Stalin,so that it will be safer to assume that developments in Moscow will be along the lines of what is called collective leadership, unless Western, policies force the Soviets to stream- line their power organization. The present situation is the most favorable from the point of view of upsetting the Communist dictatorship since the death of Stalin.""" CIA 1956: COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP IN THE USSR - ARE THERE HISTORIC PARALLELS? """There is no such emergenay in the USSR today. But under the terroristic dictatorship of Stalin the Soviet leaders have learned their lesson. Almost certainly none of them is inclined to suffer another Stalin-like era again. This is presumably the case, particularly among the1122211peviks vbo had the most intimate access to Stalin. The younger leaders VKbave not been quite as much exposed to the old dictator's whims may have a less deeply ingrained reaction. 5. When we speak of collective leadership, we mean a committee of a very few men, probably not more than five or six. The larger the membership, the greater the likelihood that fractionalization may occur, dividing the committee into antagonistic groups. Such developments are, of course, possible also among a few men, but in the case of the Soviet lomderv, the psychological impact of the Stalin terror probably acts as a preventive. The question is, then, what will happen after the old Bolsheviks have retired or died?""" #####c ##### # negative outcomes: authoritarianism hurt economic outcomes #####o # summary Wheatcroft and Davies 2018: real Soviet economic growth beyond the Tsarist era was almost *completely* concentrated in a brief moment between rapid collectivization (31-32) and the Great Purge (37-39): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/970487758550351942/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/970487894491947038/unknown.png # economic consequences of authoritarianism: lower overall economic growth Allen 2001: collectivization explains just 8% of the USSR's capital stock growth in 1928-1939 (mostly because terror & famine moved more peasants into cities); high capital reinvestment explains and soft budgets explain 92%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589762090332585985/unknown.png 318/343.9=0.925, 1-201.0/343.9=0.416, 1-258.7/343.9 """The simulations show that collectivization had a negative effect on all indicators - GDP, investment, consumption, and, of course, population - in the mid-1930s. However, collectivization pushed up the growth rate enough in the rest of the decade to raise GDP, capital accumulation, and consumption above the 1939 levels they would have realized had the agrarian system of the 1920s been preserved. Collectivization raised growth by increasing rural-urban migration: First, low procurement prices lowered farm incomes below the level they would have otherwise reached. Migration increased in consequence, since it was a function of the ratio of urban to rural income. Second, the deportation of 'kulaks' and state terrorism in general increased the rate of rural-urban migration at every ratio of urban to rural consumption. Terrorism increased economic growth to that small degree.""" ^ Allen 2001: Stalin was not necessary: while Stalin's Five-Year Plans increased the rate of reinvestment e, other senior Soviet economists had long supported increasing investment in heavy industry long before Stalin rose to power: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/859191687711424532/E4_-DuuXoAIFrQv.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/859191825901289482/E4_-FD_WQAAHOZd.png # industrialization without growth Wheatcroft and Davies 2018: the 1st Five-Year Plan dramatically grew industry but didn't increase overall productivity or economic well-being: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/970463228448612362/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/970465640999690260/unknown.png """The forced industrialisation of the 1930s achieved a ‘Great Breakthrough’. It changed the structure of the economy abruptly, pushing up the shares of industry in output and employment. The rush of labour up the productivity gradient from agriculture to industry should have improved allocation in the economy as a whole; it should have raised output per head across the economy, more rapidly in agriculture than in industry. But the outcome was different: it reduced productivity in both agriculture and industry, so that the overall results fell far short of expectations.14 In the period of the frst fve-year plan, there was industrialisation without growth (Table 1).""" # destruction of economic incentives Wheatcroft and Davies 2018: the Great Purge destroyed reliable social incentives toward productivity: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/970461949848588298/unknown.png """Taking a longer view, the damage to productivity is not hard to understand. The working arrangements of all economic systems rely on incentives and norms of behaviour. The Bolshevik Revolution destroyed the old incentives and norms and struggled to replace them with new ones. Private property was confscated in successive waves from the Revolution of 1917 to the collectivisation of peasant farms, launched at the end of 1929. The waves of confscation destroyed incentives to work, to save, and to innovate. The famine of the early 1930s arose from the interplay of unexpectedly poor weather with the confscation of grain stocks to meet the needs of industrialisation. Famine and the repression that accompanied it, destroyed millions of lives. Later in the 1930s, the purges arose from the party leaders’ need to secure their regime and from Stalin’s calculation that the greatest danger to the regime arose from the ‘potential’ and even ‘unconscious’ enemies that were hiding around him and more widely in society. The purges also destroyed millions of lives by mass killing and ruined further millions by condemning the victims not killed at once to forced resettlement and slave labour. Their legacy, like that of collectivisation, was a demoralised society characterised by mistrust and alienation from regime objectives and social norms.""" norms 2018: there's no evidence that the Great Purge increased labor discipline: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/969652959602417715/unknown.png """The mass purges caused great human suffering, affecting not only the victims but also their families and friends. Their ‘effectiveness’ in producing an orderly society is very doubtful. David Shearer concludes that ‘legal, judicial, and social-order institutions of Soviet society were in nearly complete disarray’ at the end of the purges and that ‘disruption caused by the purges recreated the conditions of social chaos that mass social cleansing was supposed to remedy.’38 And there is no evidence that the sudden removal of part of the labour force in a factory or kolkhoz led to an improvement in labour discipline or in industrial effciency generally""" ^ Shearer 2009: source for above: the great purges destroyed social order, increased death and chaos, killed millions, created millions of orphans and refugees, increased crime, and generally increased "chaos": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/970481306402181170/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/970481367794217050/unknown.png Wheatcroft and Davies 2018: the Great Purge reversed economic growth in part because they destroyed leaders of Soviet economic organizations and encouraged worker absenteeism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/969653217153675305/unknown.png """3: The Effect of the Repressions on the Economy: While the effect of the mass purges on the economy as a whole has not yet been clearly established, it is certain that the nomenklatura purges were an important factor in the deterioration of economic performance in industry, transport, and construction.39 A signifcant slowdown in the economy began in the last quarter of 1936 (Vol. 6: 313). It is tempting to conclude that this was due to the removal of key fgures: Pyatakov in heavy industry, Lifshits on the railways, and Mar’yasin at Gosbank. In each case the arrest of the key fgure was accompanied by a wave of arrests of their offcials.40 The less successful performance of the economy continued in the following years. The waves of arrests led to a pronounced shortage of qualifed and experienced personnel and were closely accompanied and followed by a deterioration in economic performance.41 In the coal industry, arrests of senior personnel were so extensive in the frst few months of 1937 that in March the deputy head of the Commissariat of Heavy Industry’s Chief Coal Administration complained to his superiors of the ‘complete collapse of work’ in the mine construction trust Shakhtostroi. Two months later he complained that no work had been done in the trust for fve months because the whole board of the trust had been arrested.42 Arrests were widespread throughout the industry. Coal output per day declined steadily in the months January–May 1937, and did not recover to the level of December 1936 until November 1937.43 According to David Hoffmann, who has made an extensive study of Moscow in this period, ‘labor discipline deteriorated rapidly with the onset of the purges (as shown by a marked increase in worker absenteeism and tardiness), and resulted in a substantial fall in factory production.’44""" # economoic consequences of authoritarianism: lower productivity from gulags Ivanova Flath Raleigh 2000: several productivity estimates of forced labor in gulags suggest it was ~52% as productive as regular labor (estimated at 64%, 55%, and 39%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/945443181179306004/unknown.png soruce: """33. TsAODM [Central Archive of Social Movements of the City of Moscow], f. 3352, op. 3, d. 175, t. 1, I. 32; d. 355, I. 43. 34. Ibid., d. 268, I. 121; d. 355, I. 39. 35. Ibid., d. 355, I. 42. 36. Ibid., d. 393, I. 10-11.""" Davies and Wheatcroft 1980: "labor productivity in the [justice] system was a fraction of that of free labor": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/970483352727613520/unknown.png Zhuravskaya Guriev Markevich 2021: the lower labor productivity of GULag workers is difficult to calculate, because GULag working conditions differed in mechanizatoin, and labor imprisonment may have had externalities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/970484728203464744/unknown.png """It is, however, often difficult to estimate the costs and benefits of coercion and punishment in the Soviet command economy. For example, according to Gulag managers, labor productivity of prisoners, who accounted for 2% of the Soviet labor force in the early 1950s, was about 50% to 60% lower than that of free labor. The level of mechanization and, more generally, working conditions, however, were very different, complicating such comparisons. Accounting for possible externalities of forced labor would make such cost-benefit analyses of forced labor even more complex (Gregory and Lazarev, eds, 2003). Miller and Smith (2015) build a model that rationalizes the Soviet forced labor system, arguing that the threat of imprisonment allowed the government to extract a greater share of worker surplus.""" # censorship: shutting down alternative visions of socialist economics Seongjin 2017: Stalin's ascent corresponded with the termination of the debate over socialist planning: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/970470887876874260/unknown.png All the debates on planning during the NEP suddenly stopped with Stalin’s counterrevolution in 1929. In 1931 Stalin purged and executed most of the planning experts, such as Kondratiev, Chayanov, Groman, Ginzberg, Rubin et al., branding them as Menshevik counterrevolutionaries. [...] Stalin himself discarded *The Balance of the National Economy of the USSR, 1923–24* as just “juggling with figures” (Stalin, 1954a: 178), signaling the physical termination of planning specialists. Ironically, the so-called Stalinist planned economy was born on the corpses of almost all the contemporary Marxist planners. Shearer 1996: todo xxx: """Shearer argues that a centralized state-controlled economic system was the consciously conceived political creation of Stalinist leaders rather than the inevitable by-product of socialist industrialization. Focusing on the different economic and bureaucratic cultures within the industrial system, Shearer reconstructs the debates in 1928 and 1929 over administrative, financial, and commercial reform. He uses information from recently opened archives to show that attempts by the state's trading organizations to create a commercial economy enjoyed wide support, offering a model that combined planning and rapid industrialization with social democracy and economic prosperity. In an effort to crush the syndicate movement and establish tight political control over the economy, Stalinist leaders intervened with a program of radical reforms. Shearer demonstrates that professional engineers, planners and industrial administrators in many cases actively supported the creation of a powerful industrial state unhampered by domestic social and economic constraints. The paradoxical result, Shearer shows, was a loss of control. The overly centralized system that emerged during the first Five-Year Plan was rendered incoherent by periodic economic crises and the continuing influence of partially suppressed social and market forces.""" # dogmatism and blindness toward authoritarianism the USSR's dogmatism prevented serious engagement with begging and destitution: """Official rhetoric considered begging -- along with other social deviancies -- as a “vestige of the past,” destined to disappear with the construction of Socialist society. The idea of “construction” presupposed a concerted fight against these “vestiges.” Those who transmitted these values were stigmatized for being “socially excluded elements” or “parasites” who should be “re-educated,” either voluntarily or by force.""""""As the last foundations of Socialism were being laid, the reality of begging contradicted official declarations concerning the national eradication of poverty (nishcheta). Begging was henceforth considered an avatar of “parasitic” existence, a phenomenon with no social or economic justification in the Soviet Union, a simple outcome of human vice.""""""Ideology was another systemic constraint. Belief in the superiority of Socialism over Capitalism, particularly regarding social benefits and quality of life, prevented an appropriate analysis of reality. These systemic constraints dominated both governmental and social discourse.""""""Soviet society was based on the principle of exclusion on several levels. When the authorities gave the signal to “exclude” someone, society reacted accordingly, chasing from their midst those “enemies of the people,” the “rootless cosmopolitans,” the “parasites,” and the “good-for-nothings.”""" #####c ##### # negative outcomes: soviet contributions to pseudoscience #####o # suppression of data Notzon et al 1998: Soviets suppressed homicide and suicide data until Gorbachov: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002743249464721529/unknown.png """The Soviets suppressed information on homicide and suicide deaths until the late 1980s. However, recent access to Soviet files confirms that rather than removing all deaths due to homicides and suicides from mortality reporting, the Soviets added these deaths to the “cause not specified” category. In addition, all restrictions on the release of data disappeared by the late 1980s, so it is unlikely that such practices would affect the measurement of mortality trends from 1990 and the following years.""" Shkolnikov Meslé Vallin 1994: Soviets suppressed homicide, suicide, and work accidents data until 1998 under Gorbachov: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1003065156818960424/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1003068540741496873/unknown.png """Second, until 1988, certain cause-of-death items in the Soviet classification were not used in the regular statistical tables; these causes (cholera, plague, suicide, homicide, and accidents at work) were hidden for political reasons. To maintain correct totals for all causes combined, the hidden causes were mixed with ill-defined ones. However, the hidden causes were tabulated separately in a top secret special table, which we finally were allowed to access for the years 1963 to 1987. The analysis of these data provided below helps clarify the reasons why these causes were kept so secret. In 1970, for instance, the standardized death rate by homicide was about eight times as high as the European average rate.""" # suppression of mainstream science overview: biology: inheritance physics: big bang: #####c ##### # negative outcomes: censorship #####o # media: books Dobrenko 1997 [trans Savage 1997]: Glavlit rolls out wide scale censorship in 1924: """The removals of belles lettres are particularly interesting. Practically all mass literature was classified as literature that "excites, strengthens, and develops base, animal, antisocial feelings (such as spite and cruelty, [or] sexual perversion and sensations in pornographic books), superstition, national-ism and militarism (in many historical novels)." Among these were the "lubok books" (Bova Korolevich, Eruslan Lazarevich, The English Milord Georg, Frantsyl' Ventsian, Guak, or, Indomitable Loyalty, Novgorod Knight, The Witch from Beyond the Dniepr, lapancha, the Tatar Horseman, Pan Tvardovskii, and others published by the presses of Sytin, Balashov, Brilliantov, Zemskov, Konovalov, etc.); "lubok songbooks," "boulevard" and/or "crime novels" (Casanova, the Adventurer, Nat Pinkerton, Nick Carter, Battle by Air, Garibaldi, or books for example by Gaboriau or Ponson du Terrail). But when the "cleansing list" reached Russian authors, the picture became absolutely dismal: next to almost every name appeared the word "everything" (i.e., for removal) in parentheses. This included Arkadii Averchenko, Verbitskaia, M. Volkonskii, Prince Meshcherskii, Vsevolod Solov'ev, and L. Shakhovskaia, to note only some of the most widely read authors: the list contained 56 names (pp. 45-47). The hits were so precise that one would suppose the authorities were in fact struggling against the "bad tastes of the reading public." Meanwhile, an impeccable selection was sent to distill the libraries' holdings, to replace "mass literature" with "literature for the masses." Children's libraries suffered particularly badly as a result of the removals (obviously, the pedagogical predilections and pretensions of Krupskaia, who was considered not only the country's "chief librarian" but also its "chief pedagogue", were in evidence here). When children's literature was being discussed, the tone of the instructions became evasive and peremptory; in practice the evasiveness of wording led librarians to remove as much as possible, on the principle "better overzealous than negligent." The instructions insisted: "It is especially important to cleanse children's departments of the libraries of books with a bad emotional and ideological content; from them must be removed not only books with the aforementioned bias [the one noted about literature for adults] but also books that do not satisfy contemporary pedagogical requirements" (p. 47). Clearly, literally everything could fall under these formulas as worded.""" # media: films Lawton 1989: Gorbachev-era Soviet film generally portrayed Americans as good-natured but misled by their government; recent Hollywood hits "concocted a much more monstrous image of the enemy": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1082766295608590528/image.png """Less adventurous but just as propagandistic were the films We Accuse (My obviniaem, directed by T. Levchuk, 1985), a dramatization of the trial of the American pilot, Gary Powers, in the sixties; and Flight 222 (Reis 222, directed by Sergei Mikaelian, 1985), based on a real-life incident involving a Soviet ballerina who, upon departure from New York, was detained by the Immigration Service, together with an Aeroflot jet full of passengers, in order to ascertain whether she was going back of her own will. As expected, in these films the Americans are the villains. However, one must note that the targets of Soviet criticism are generally government officials or people somewhat connected with the “military-industrial complex.” Not infrequently, the average American citizen comes across as a good fellow, although naïve and misguided. On balance, the Hollywood producers of recent hits have concocted a much more monstrous image of the enemy.39 [....] 39. In the escapist genre we should also list the “disaster movies,” such as The Crew (Ekipazh, by Alexander Mitta, 1979), which was rated third on a list of the ten greatest box-office successes. Literaturnaia gazeta (January 14, 1987), p. 8.""" #####c ##### # negative outcomes: 1930-33 Soviet famine #####o # other terms Holodomor in Ukraine, Goloshchekin genocide in Kazakhstan # total death count Davies and Wheatcroft 2010: estimate of total dead: 5.7 million: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1154894822981767268/image.png """Thus the outcome of these calculations is as follows: Estimates of excess deaths from famine, 1930–33 (millions) Kazakhstan famine: approximate: 1.3–1.5 Excess deaths in OGPU system 0.3 Registered excess deaths, 1932–33 2.9 Estimate 1 Low estimate (total of above), approx. 4.6 Estimate 2 ADK estimate of all excess deaths, 1930–33 8.5 Estimate 3 Our estimate, after ‘Lorimer corrections’, 5.7 approx. (4.6 above, 1.1 million from the Kurman gap) Whichever estimate we adopt, or even if we use only the officially registered deaths, this is an enormous figure. In the twentieth century, this number of deaths from a famine was exceeded only in China after 1958.""" Wheatcroft 1990: total deaths from famine 4-5 million: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589913208400379935/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071581652368764988/image.png """Previously I had always argued that the demographic evidence did not incline me to believe that the scale of mortality from the 1932/33 famine was comparable with that from the 1921/22 famine and that it was unlikely to have been more than 3 to 4 million. The evidence of these registration figures inclines me to revise my position and to suggest that the scale of mortality from the 1932/33 famine may have been somewhat larger than I had earlier suggested and might be as high as 4 to 5 million. These figures are much lower than many of the excess mortality and population loss figures that are cited in the West. Mace believes that 5-7 million for the Ukraine alone is a 'conservative figure',23 Conquest claims 5 million Ukrainian famine deaths, and 8 million overall including the North Caucasus and Kazakhstan; but on top of this he wishes to add another 6.5 million deaths 'as a result of dekulakization'.24 The figures given by Mace and Conquest are impossible to accept.""" # holodomor death count Kiev Court of Appeals: finds that the USSR conducted genocide, asserts that 3.941 million Ukranians directly died from famine: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/637541761111031808/unknown.png # intentional genocide vs system failure: consensus-taking Conquest 2004 (in Davies and Wheatcroft 2006): Holodomor was man-made, partially intentional, and not genocidal: """Stalin purposely inflicted the 1933 famine? No. What I argue is that with resulting famine imminent, he could have prevented it, but put "Soviet interest" other than feeding the starving first thus consciously abetting it.""" Bilinsky 2007: Holodomor was man-made, intentional, and genocidal: """My argument, however, is that both logic and political usage in Ukraine point in one direction, that of the terror-famine being genocidal. Stalin hated the Ukrainians, as accepted as a fact by Sakharov, revealed in the telegram to Zatonsky and inferred from his polemics with the Yugoslav communist Semich. Stalin decided to collectivize Soviet agriculture and under the cover of collectivization teach the Ukrainians a bloody lesson. Had it not been for Stalinist hubris and the incorporation of the more nationalistically minded and less physically decimated Western Ukrainians after 1939, the Ukrainian nation might have never recovered from the Stalinist offensive against the main army of the Ukrainian national movement, the peasants.""" James Mace, 1984: Holodomor was man-made, intentional, and genocidal: (full text not available) """For the Ukrainians the famine must be understood as the most terrible part of a consistent policy carried out against them: the destruction of their cultural and spiritual elite which began with the trial of the Union for the Liberation of Ukraine, the destruction of the official Ukrainian wing of the Communist Party, and the destruction of their social basis in the countryside. Against them the famine seems to have been designed as part of a campaign to destroy them as a political factor and as a social organism.""" Tauger 2006: Holodomor was partially man-made, not intentional, and not genocidal: """In my 1991 article I presented these data and showed, using comparisons with official figures, a weighted average yield calculation, and other calculations, that proved that the 1932 harvest was much smaller than the official published estimate of that year, and also smaller than the harvest of 1933. This conclusion seriously undermined previous claims, for example by Robert Conquest and the late James Mace, that the famine was ‘man-made’ because the harvest was not exceptionally small and therefore did not create a shortage that would have caused the famine.""" Wheatcroft 2018: Holodomor was mostly man-made, not intentional, and not genocidal: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079630546222719067/image.png """We all agreed that Stalin’s policy was brutal and ruthless and that its cover up was criminal, but we do not believe that it was done on purpose to kill people and cannot therefore be described as murder or genocide.""""""Davies and I have (2004) produced the most detailed account of the grain crisis in these years, showing the uncertainties in the data and the mistakes carried out by a generally ill-informed, and excessively ambitious, government. The state showed no signs of a conscious attempt to kill lots of Ukrainians and belated attempts that sought to provide relief when it eventually saw the tragedy unfolding were evident.""""""Discussions in the popular narrative of famine have changed over the years. During Soviet times there was a contrast between ‘man-made’ famine and ‘denial of famine’. ‘Man-made’ at this time largely meant as a result of policy. Then there was a contrast between ‘man-made on purpose’, and ‘man-made by accident’ with charges of criminal neglect and cover up. This stage seemed to have ended in 2004 when Robert Conquest agreed that the famine was not man-made on purpose. But in the following ten years there has been a revival of the ‘man-made on purpose’ side. This reflects both a reduced interest in understanding the economic history, and increased attempts by the Ukrainian government to classify the ‘famine as a genocide’. It is time to return to paying more attention to economic explanations.""" Davies and Wheatcroft 2010: Holodomor was mostly man-made, but not intentional, and not genocidal: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079629417984299028/image.png """In our own work we, like V.P. Kozlov, have found no evidence that the Soviet authorities undertook a programme of genocide against Ukraine. It is also certain that the statements by Ukranian politicans and publicists about the deaths from famine in Ukraine are greatly exagerrated. A prominent Ukranian historian, Stanislas Kul'chitskii, estimated deaths from famine in Ukraine at 3-3.5 million;5 and Ukrainian demograhic in Ukraine in the whole period 1926-39 (most of them during the famine) amounted to 3.5 million.6 Nevertheless, Ukrainian organisations continue, with some success, to urge Canadian schools to teach as a fact that excess deaths were 10 million during the 1932-33 famine.7 This does not mean that Ukraine did not suffer greatly during the famine. It is certainly the case that most of the famine deaths took place in Ukraine, and that the grain collection campaign was associated with the reversal of the previous policy of Ukranisation.8""" Rosenfielde 2010: Holodomor was man-made, intentional, and genocidal: """There was a famine (widespread health-impairing food shortage) 1932–33 caused by two bad harvests in 1931 and 1932 attributable partly to collectivization and partly to weather (although Kondrashin and Penner contest the explanation), but it didn’t cause the killings. Grain supplies were sufficient to sustain everyone if properly distributed. People died mostly of terror-starvation (excess grain exports, seizure of edibles from the starving, state refusal to provide emergency relief, bans on outmigration, and forced deportation to food-deficit locales), not poor harvests and routine administrative bungling.""" Snyder 2010: Holodomor was man-made, intentional, and genocidal: """In the waning weeks of 1932, facing no external security threat and no challenge from within, with no conceivable justification except to prove the inevitability of his rule, Stalin chose to kill millions of people in Soviet Ukraine.""""""It was not food shortages but food distribution that killed millions in Soviet Ukraine, and it was Stalin who decided who was entitled to what.""""""Though collectivization was a disaster everywhere in the Soviet Union, the evidence of clearly premeditated mass murder on the scale of millions is most evident in Soviet Ukraine. Collectivization had involved the massive use of executions and deportations everywhere in the Soviet Union, and the peasants and nomads who made up the bulk of the Gulag’s labor force hailed from all of the Soviet republics. Famine had struck parts of Soviet Russia as well as much of Soviet Ukraine in 1932. Nevertheless, the policy response to Ukraine was special, and lethal. Seven crucial policies were applied only, or mainly, in Soviet Ukraine in late 1932 or early 1933. Each of them may seem like an anodyne administrative measure, and each of them was certainly presented as such at the time, and yet each of them had to kill.""" Lemkin 1953: Holodomor was man-made, intentional, and genocidal: Holodomor was man-made and genocidal: """What I want to speak about is perhaps the classic example of Soviet genocide, its longest and broadest experiment in Russification — the destruction of the Ukrainian nation. This is, as I have said, only the logical successor of such Tsarist crimes as the drowning of 10,000 Crimean Tatars by order of Catherine the Great, the mass murders of Ivan the Terrible's ‘SS troops’ — the Oprichnina; the extermination of National Polish leaders and Ukrainian Catholics by Nicholas I; and the series of Jewish pogroms that have stained Russian history periodically.""" ### effect on urban citizens: rates of death comparable to those of the rural famine regions Davies and Wheatcroft 2010: the urban food shortage starting in 1927 led to a rationing system that covered most urban residents of the Soviet Union; this system was often insufficient for urban residents: """The crisis of the state grain collections in the autumn of 1927 soon led to general urban food shortage. Rationing of major foods and some consumer goods was introduced piecemeal in the course of 1928 and 1929.24 By the end of 1930, over 30 million people were receiving food from what had become an elaborate rationing system (see vol. 3, pp. 289–300). The number of people receiving rations continued to expand, and reached 38 million by the beginning of 1932.25 However, as a result of the pressures on the state grain collections from these increased numbers, and from the demands of industry and export, it became increasingly difficult to honour the approved rations. Some commodities were taken off the ration in 1931 (see vol. 4, pp. 61–3). At the beginning of 1932, some foods were also derationed. For all these goods, the urban as well as the rural population had to fend for itself. On March 23, 1932, a fateful Politburo decision substantially reduced the allocation of grain for 20 million people on the lower-priority ration Lists 2 and 3. The local authorities were supposed to make up the difference; but in practice the amount of bread received by this huge segment of the non-agricultural population was substantially reduced. In the months before the new harvest, the urban death rate doubled in the Lower Volga region, the North Caucasus and Ukraine (see vol. 4, p. 187n.).26 Dissatisfaction was widespread. Serious food riots took place in the textile areas; and many workers who failed to receive food rations left their building sites. With the exception of some regions of Ukraine, the death rate in the towns was higher than in the countryside in the spring and early summer of 1932.""" Davies and Wheatcroft 2010: the mortality rate in regions covering 70 of 160 million people in the Soviet Union saw mortality rates 10%, 20%, or 30% above the pre-famine rate, including urban districts of like Moscow; the increase in rural rates of Ukraine was 20%: """Even excluding the Urals, Siberia and the Far East, the famine areas included over 70 million of the 160 million people in the USSR. The mortality figures for these areas are so large that it is difficult to see them in perspective. Most countries in the world would consider a rise in annual mortality of 10 per cent caused by food problems to be a famine. All regions, even the urban districts of Moscow region, experienced a rise in mortality of over 20 per cent above the normal level for an extended period. For rural areas in the Russian republic as a whole, including areas not greatly affected by famine, there were eight months in 1933 (February–August, and October) when mortality was more than 20 per cent above normal. In rural areas of Ukraine, mortality more than 20 per cent above normal was registered for April–July and November 1932, and for all the first eight months of 1933.""" # grain stocks from harvest: excessively large, but not enormous Davies and Wheatcroft 2004: harvest figures by year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071584281387859968/image.png Tauger 1991: explains the massive statistical overexaggeration of harvests (by different methods and overreporting): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/638721446499057674/unknown.png The 1932 Harvest and the Famine of 1933 """The degree of overestimation can be approximated by extrapolating from the archival data for kolkhozy. Official figures for Soviet and Ukrainian kolkhoz yields (6.8 centners and 8.0 centners) are close to average yields for all sectors (7.0 centners and 8.1 centners). The archival figures for kolkhoz yields (6.4 centners and 5 centners) can be reasonably assumed to be close to the genuine average yields for all sectors and, therefore, kolkhoz production data in the annual reports can serve as a basis for estimating total grain production in 1932. Thus, for Ukraine, the official sown area (18.1 million hectares) reduced by the share of sown area actually harvested (93.8 percent) to a harvested area of 17 million hectares and multiplied by the average yield (approximately 5 centners) gives a total harvest of 8.5 million tons, or a little less than 60 percent of the official 14.6 million tons. This result appears to support Holubnychy's statement that 40 percent of the crop was lost in 1932. A similar calculation of the sown area in the Soviet Union (99.7 million hectares), reduced by 7 percent (based on the TsUNKhU data) to 92.72 and multiplied by the NKZ average yield of 5.4 centners, gives a total Soviet harvest of 50.06 million tons, almost 30 percent below the official figure of 69.87-within the range that Schiller predicted. If the kolkhozy that did not complete annual reports had lower harvests than those that did and if sovkhoz and edinolichnik harvests were as low as their 1932 procurements implied, the harvest may have been well below 50 million tons.3""" Davies Wheatcroft Tauger 1995: the USSR was unable to maintain large grain stocks: Stalin, Grain Stocks and the Famine of 1932-1933 """All planners' stocks-the two secret grain reserves, Nepfond and Mobfond or Gosfond, together with "transitional stocks" held by grain organizations-amounted on 1 July 1933 to less than 2 million tons (1.997 million tons, according to the highest official figure""""""On 1 July 1933 the total amount of grain set aside in reserve grain stocks (fondy) amounted not to 4.53 million tons as Conquest claimed but to only 1.141 million.""""""These findings do not, of course, free Stalin from responsibility for the famine. It is difficult, perhaps impossible, to assess the extent to which it would have been possible for Stalin to use part of the grain stocks available in spring 1933 to feed starving peasants. The state was a monopoly supplier of grain to urban areas and the army; if the reserves of this monopoly supply system-which amounted to four-six weeks' supply-were to have been drained, mass starvation, epidemics and unrest in the towns could have resulted. Nevertheless, it seems certain that, if Stalin had risked lower levels of these reserves in spring and summer 1933, hundreds of thousands-perhaps millions-of lives could have been saved. In the slightly longer term, if he had been open about the famine, some international help would certainly have alleviated the disaster. And if he had been more far-sighted, the agricultural crisis of 1932-1933 could have been mitigated and perhaps even avoided altogether. But Stalin was not hoarding immense grain reserves in these years. On the contrary, he had failed to reach the levels which he had been imperatively demanding since 1929.""" # causes: non-manmade Davies and Wheatcroft 2006: TODO XXX: Stalin and the Soviet Famine of 1932 – 33: A reply to Ellman Tauger 2001: both weather and collectivization played a substantial role in the Holodomor: Tauger lists 13 causes for the 1933 famines: extreme drought, a sudden midwinter warm spell, heavy rains late in the growing season, rust (plant disease), smut (plant disease), ergot (plant disease), pests, mass killing of draft forces (horses) without compensatory increases in tractors, peasant exile and reduced labor, peasant opposition to collectivization, soil exhaustion, weeds, and mice: Tauger 2001: famines occurred under the NEP, before collectivization: Serious droughts led to famines during the period of the New Economic Policy (NEP) in 1924 -- 1925 in European Russia and Ukraine, and in 1928-1929, which was most severe in Ukraine. In both cases, the regime acknowledged the crises and formed extraordinary agencies to manage relief.16 The 1928-1929 Ukrainian famine, which has not been recognized in the Western literature but is documented in Ukrainian sources, was a major cause of the "grain crisis" because it substantially reduced grain supplies for the urban population as well as for peasants in the drought regions. The grain crisis and famine of 1928-1929 were among the main factors that led Soviet leaders and officials to resort to the "extraordinary measures" to procure food from peasants in other regions, to import food from abroad, to ration food in towns and in rural famine districts, and ultimately to undertake the collectivization of agriculture.17 Even in 1930 many regions had unfavorable weather and crop failures: in parts of the North Caucasus, crop failures forced local authorities to appeal to central authorities for seed aid, which they received, and crop failures also reduced harvests in Kazakstan and the Middle Volga.18 # exports: the ussr reduced grain exports Tauger 1991: the USSR curtailed exports, urban rations, and rural rations: The 1932 Harvest and the Famine of 1933 """The low 1932 harvest meant that the regime did not have sufficient grain for urban and rural food supplies, seed, and exports. The authorities curtailed all of these, but ultimately rural food supplies had last priority. The harsh 1932-1933 procurements only displaced the famine from urban areas, which would have suffered a similar scale of mortality without the grain the procurements provided (though, as noted above, urban mortality rates also rose in 1933). **The severity and geographical extent of the famine, the sharp decline in exports in 1932-1933, seed requirements, and the chaos in the Soviet Union in these years, all lead to the conclusion that even a complete cessation of exports would not have been enough to prevent famine. This situation makes it difficult to accept the interpretation of the famine as the result of the 1932 grain procurements and as a conscious act of genocide. The harvest of 1932 essentially made a famine inevitable. Although the low 1932 harvest may have been a mitigating circumstance, the regime was still responsible for the deprivation and suffering of the Soviet population in the early 1930s.** The data presented here provide a more precise measure of the consequences of collectivization and forced industrialization than has previously been available; if anything, these data show that the effects of those policies were worse than has been assumed. They also, however, indicate that the famine was real, the result of a failure of economic policy, of the "revolution from above," rather than of a "successful" nationality policy against Ukrainians or other ethnic groups.""" Tauger 2001: the USSR substantially curtailed exports -- 1932 exports were 34% of 1931, first half of 1933 exports were 4%: """The amount of grain exported during the peak of the famine in the first half of 1933, however, approximately 220,000 tons, was small, less than 1 percent of the lowest harvest estimates, and the regime was using virtually all the rest of the available harvest to feed people. The actual amounts of grain needed and utilized for this purpose can only be approximated.""""""As can be seen from comparing these statistics with the data on procurements in tables 1 and 2, the total of supply and exports nearly exhausts the total grain available from procurements in these years. The Soviet government did have small reserves of grain, but continually drew these down to allocate food to the population.5 Since virtually the entire country experienced shortages of food, indicating that the procurement and distribution data are reasonably accurate, clearly the Soviet Union faced a severe shortage, and the most important cause of that shortage has to have been small harvests in 1931 and 1932.""""""Internationally, Soviet leaders faced a military threat in the Far East that had resulted from the Japanese invasion of Manchuria, an extremely tense situation in Germany as the Nazi party rose to power, distrustful relations with Poland, and a serious balance of payments deficit that put the Soviet Union under intense pressure to export commodities and to curtail imports of producer goods, both desperately needed internally.""" Tauger 2001: grain exports fell enormously: """During those same periods [July 1931 to June 1932] the regime drastically curtailed grain exports, from 4.7 million tons to 1.6 million tons.""" XXX unformatted Tauger 2001: the USSR saw substantially reduced (33% lower) total horsepower on farms, mostly from reduced horses and unfulfilled tractor production promises: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/871934108526329866/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/871936636232007761/unknown.png """Draft forces declined drastically directly or indirectly as a result of collectivization. In response to collectivization and the socialization of their property in the kolkhozy, many peasants sold or slaughtered their livestock, for a variety of reasons: as a protest against collectivization; because they did not want to surrender their animals to the new collective farms without compensation; because of local officials' unrealistic promises about mechanizadon.92 During the initial campaign of 1930, these actions most affected animals used for consumption, especially cattle and pigs. Afterward, when most peasants had already been collectivized and subjected to the procurement demands of 1931, the number of draft animals, especially horses, declined rapidly. Animals were the immediate victims of shortages in 1930-1933 since starving peasants had no choice but to feed themselves first from the dwindling reserves, and because peasants frequently expressed their resentment of collectivization by neglect and abusive treatment of socialized livestock.93""" # numerous failures of collectivization Tauger 2001: on the decline of draft forces in the USSR from 1930-35: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/853102081724252190/unknown.png Tauger 2001: on the effects of dekulakization on Soviet harvests: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/853102361437143060/unknown.png Tauger 2001: USSR leaders were ignorant of the extremely low famine and blamed low statistics on mismanagement and peasant resistance: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/853112886380855326/unknown.png Tauger 2001: USSR leaders, including the Politburo and Stalin, were ignorant of the extremely low famine and blamed low statistics on mismanagement and peasant resistance: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/853112878755217448/unknown.png Tauger 2001: the Holodomor (Soviet famine, 1932-33) is comparable to the Gorta Mor (Irish famine, 1845-1848): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/853112930748334090/unknown.png # ethnic composition of Ukraine 1927 Census: ethnicities within the Ukraine SSR: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641695638123446282/unknown.png my calculation of the relative proportions of fatalities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641712663969398822/unknown.png # ethnicities affected: probably not intentionally biased towards ukrainian death Wheatcroft 1990: Ukraine's mortality rate in 1933 was 189% higher than in 32, Russia's 51.7%, Byelorussia's 23.6%, and the USSR as a whole 83.9%: total deaths from famine 4-5 million: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/589912399083995149/unknown.png Kulchytsky Yefimenko 2003 [Кульчицький Єфіменко 2003]: the statistical distribution of famine's victims among the ethnicities closely reflects the ethnic distribution of the rural population of Ukraine. The more-rural Moldavian, Polish, German, and Bulgarian populations of Ukraine suffered in the same proportion as the rural Ukrainian population, while the more-urban Russians and Jews survived the famine more successfully: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641685664634765334/unknown.png наслідки Голодомору 1933 р. в Україні """Статистика смертності в національному розрізі за 1933 р. виглядає таким чином: Аналізуючи цю таблицю, слід пам'ятати, що в ній подається як природна смертність, так і смертність від толоду. Спрямований проти українського села терор голодом захопив усіх, хто проживав у ньому. У формах звітності за національною ознакою була зареєстрована більша кількість смертей, ніж у формах природного руху (1850,3 тис. чоловік). Частка українців серед загиблих приблизно відповідає їх питомій вазі у сільському населенні республіки. Молдавське, польське, німецьке і болгарське населення майже повністю проживало в селах. Тому воно постраждало від голоду в таких же пропорціях, як українці. Євреї мешкали більшою частиною у містах. Тому смертність серед них мало відрізнялася від нормальної. Переважна більшість росіян теж проживала в містах. Серед порівняно нечисленного населення в російських селах зареєстрована основна частина померлих. Треба прийняти до уваги, що облік смертності в містах майже не зазнав деформацій і тому був відносно повним. Навпаки, в селах органи ЗАГС спромоглися зареєструвати менше половини смертних випадків. Все це вказує на те, що терор голодом цілив своїм вістрям не в етнічних українців, а в сільське населення.""""""National mortality statistics for 1933 are as follows: Analyzing this table, it should be remembered that it presents both natural mortality and death from frostbite. The terror directed against the Ukrainian village captured everyone who lived in it with hunger. A greater number of deaths were registered in the forms of reporting by nationality than in the forms of natural movement (1,850.3 thousand people). The share of Ukrainians among the dead roughly corresponds to their specific weight in the rural population of the republic. The Moldavian, Polish, German and Bulgarian population lived almost entirely in the villages. Therefore, it suffered from hunger in the same proportions as Ukrainians. Jews mostly lived in cities. Therefore, mortality among them differed little from normal. The vast majority of Russians also lived in cities. Most of the dead are registered among the relatively small population in Russian villages. It should be taken into account that the record of mortality in cities was almost not deformed and therefore was relatively complete. On the contrary, in the villages, the civil registry office managed to register less than half of the deaths. All this indicates that the terror of hunger was aimed not at ethnic Ukrainians, but at the rural population.""" # history of famines in the Russian empire Davies and Wheatcroft 2004: on the history of serious famines in Russia: """Serious famines occurred in the Russian Empire and the USSR in 1891/92, 1918–22, and throughout 1930–33. The 1891/92 famine resulted in 400,000–500,000 excess deaths; and excess deaths in the famines of 1918–22 are estimated at as many as 10–14 million. The estimates of excess deaths in the Kazakh famine of 1930–33, in the rural famine of 1932–33, and the accompanying urban food shortages, range from 4.5 to 8 million. As we explain below, our own view is that both these extreme estimates are implausible, and that excess deaths probably amounted to 5.5 to 6.5 million. The rural famine of 1932–33, which is the central concern of this book, was not, of course, the last famine experienced on Soviet territory. During the Second World War, famine conditions existed over a large part of the USSR – the best-known famine taking place during the siege of Leningrad. Civilian excess deaths, resulting mainly from the deterioration in living conditions, may have amounted in all to as many as 14 million.3 In 1946–47 a further famine involved 1–1.5 million excess deaths, affecting the Moldavian republic, Ukraine and a large part of the RSFSR.4 It was only from 1948 onwards that the Soviet Union was free from large-scale famine. All famines are to some extent culturally-constructed phenomena, not intrinsically different from other food crises in their causation. Their consequences are, however, strikingly different, involving mass death to an extent qualitatively different from mere food shortages. The use of the term ‘famine’ indicates that the food crisis has passed a certain critical level and has taken on, or is threatening to take on, extraordinary consequences.5 The declaration of a famine is a call for extraordinary measures of relief, in circumstances that are recognized as threatening to cause mass deaths. But often governments fail to recognise famine, or recognise it half-heartedly.""" ^ Davies and Wheatcroft 2009 revised edition: # todo Wheatcroft 2004: Wheatcroft 2017: The Great Leap Upwards: Anthropometric Data and Indicators of Crises and Secular Change in Soviet Welfare Levels, 1880-1960 Wheatcroft 2007: """This is the term that Osinsky used to describe the phenomena in his first address to TsUNKhU personnel after being reinstated as head of the statistical office in January 1932 (see Osinskii 1932, p. 5). [....] P. I. Popov, the foundation director of the Central Statistical Administration (TsSU) was opposed to applying such corrections, but his great rival in Gosplan, V. G. Groman, was keen to accept these high corrections. When Popov was sacked in early 1926, and the Gromanovites took over control of TsSU there was an immediate 20% inflation in grain production figures making earlier estimates non-comparable with the high figures that were subsequently produced. A. E. Lossitsky, in charge of consumption data in TsSU, was an advocate of the balance method that was used to justify the large corrections that were made to grain production data at the time. Throughout the late 1920s there was a tension between the low uncorrected harvest evaluations made in the localities and the higher centrally corrected figures that were decided by political groups within the Interdepartmental Expert Soviet on grain harvest evaluations, which from 1926 was given monopoly rights over determining the size of grain harvests. There were further major struggles over harvest evaluations in 1927 and 1928 when first Osinsky was removed from the directorship of TsSU and then Groman was removed from Statplan and the Expert Soviet. By the end of 1929 the TsSU was abolished and all statistical work was transferred to other agencies: the Statistical Economic Sector of Gosplan and the Statistical Accounting Department within the people’s Commissariat of Agriculture NKZem. Objectivity was greatly eroded and ‘plan-constructivism’4 began to replace objective statistical evaluation, until at the end of 1931 a decision was made to restore the credibility and independence of a central statistical agency. In a quite extraordinary move, Osinsky (a major former oppositionist and outspoken defender of TsSU) was returned to the leadership of this agency, which was now called the Central Administration for National Economic Accounting (TsUNKhU), and there was a serious attempt to restore censuses and objective records. It was in this new spirit that the 1932 harvest evaluation was made; but the relatively favourable period of early 1932 (the neo-Nep) soon gave way to political pressure as the disaster of the 1932 harvest unfolded and as the centre tried to deny its existence. Despite the best efforts of Osinsky and his colleagues, pressure was applied to ensure that politically acceptable harvest evaluations were made. Osinsky and TsUNKhU were to receive a vygovor (an official reprimand) for publishing a table in an internal (‘official use only’) bulletin which showed that the grain harvest of 1932 was lower than planned.5""" # todo kazakh famine Wheatcroft 2021: TODO XXX: """Realists who argued that it was dangerous to plan to use a great increase in food production, before the increase occurred, were mercilessly attacked for their right-wing deviancy.""" #####c ##### # negative outcomes: molotov-ribbentrop pact #####o # historical context: Soviet Union had attempted mutual defense treaty attempts with France & Britain 1935 May: the Soviet Union signed a mutual defense treaty with France (France ratified February 1936); this treaty was overcomplicated and hollow, and would be effectively dead by 1936: 1935 October: Italy invaded Ethiopia; the League of Nations sanctioned Italy, but failed to respond with military support: 1936 March: Germany remilitarizes the Rhineland, without any effective League of Nations response; only the Soviet Union voted for sanctions against Germany: 1938 September: France and Britain supported the Munich Agreement, which dismembered Czechoslovakia; neither Czechoslovakia or Soviet Union representatives were present: 1939 May: Germany and Italy sign Pact of Steel, securing military-political alliance: 1939 March: Germany invades Czechoslovakia: 1939 April to August: the Soviet Union attempted to establish a tripartite mutual defense treaty with Britain and France. Suspicion of socialism and belief that war could be avoided prevented the West from taking the talks seriously; in addition, Poland refused to allow Soviet troops through its territory. After a long failure of the talks, the USSR pursued a non-aggresion treaty with Germany: 1939 August: Soviet Union and Germany sign Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact: 1939 September 1: Germany invades Poland: 1939 September 17: Soviet Union invades Poland: 1940 September: Germany, Italy, and Japan sign Berlin Pact, securing military-political alliance; however, this pact did not demand mutual declarations of war: # why did French and British fail to sign? Carley 1993: French and British refused to sign mutual defense with Soviets because of [1] hatred of communism, [2] fear of socialist revolution, and [3] admiration for Nazi repression of leftists: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1175680113082368101/image.png End of the ‘low, dishonest decade’: Failure of the Anglo-Franco-Soviet alliance in 1939 """Auden's 'low, dishonest decade' began with the Great Depression and unfolded as Nazism and Stalinism oppressed Europe and Soviet Asia. The Anglo-French policy of appeasement led to the abandonment of Abyssinia, Austria and Spain and the betrayal of Czechoslovakia. Yet in spite of all this, the decade was not without moments of hope. The USSR, and especially its commissar for foreign affairs, Maxim Maximovich Litvinov, offered 'collective security', or an anti-Nazi alliance, to France and Great Britain. Paradoxically, Stalin's blood-drenched wickedness did not mean that Soviet foreign policy was wicked also. But in France and Great Britain the determination to resist fascism was sapped by hatred of bolshevism, fear of socialist revolution, and sneaking admiration for Hitler's repression of the left. Inter-war anti-bolshevism was in fact so like anti-communism after 1945 that it poses the question of when the Cold War began and whether it was a cause or an effect of war in 1939. Anti-bolshevism inspired illusions that Nazi Germany could be encouraged to expand eastward—peaceably, economically, to be sure—to run up against the USSR. The two scorpions' parlous embrace would leave France and Great Britain out of harm's way.""" Watson 2000: failure was mutual, but mostly on the British and French side, which failed to appreciate Soviet fears of encirclement or absolute military alliance to avoid solely fighting against Germany: Molotov's Apprenticeship in Foreign Policy: The Triple Alliance Negotiations in 1939 """From the beginning, the two sides approached the negotiations differently. The Western powers believed that war could still be avoided and, if it came, the USSR, much weakened by the purges, could only function as a supply base in a long war of attrition, not as a main military participant. The USSR, which approached the negotiations with caution because of the traditional hostility of the Western powers and its fear of ‘capitalist encirclement’, had little faith either that war could be avoided or in the Polish army. It wanted a guaranteed commitment of military support in a war in which the USSR would play an aggressive role in a two-pronged attack on Germany: from France and the USSR.2 These contrasting attitudes partly explain why the USSR has often been charged with playing a double game in 1939: carrying on open negotiations for a pact of mutual assistance with Britain and France whilst secretly engaging in parallel discussions with Germany for an agreement aimed against the Western democracies. Molotov has been accused both of artificially dragging out the talks with Britain and France by seizing on various inessential details to secure a successful outcome or better deal with Germany, and also of summarily breaking them off and concluding an alliance with Germany when on the verge of success with Britain and France. But the delays which Molotov caused were usually on issues essential to Soviet interests, and there appeared to be an impossible obstacle to the vital military convention with France and Britain when the agreement with Germany was signed. In contrast, the Western states, even taking into account that they had to coordinate their policy in the capital of a distant country, were dilatory in their approaches to Moscow and slow in their responses during the negotiations.3 A.J. P Taylor commented: "If British diplomacy seriously aspired to alliance with Soviet Russia in 1939, then the negotiations towards this end were the most incompetent transactions since Lord North lost the American colonies..." and compared the 67 days delay made by the British and French in their responses to Soviet proposals to the 16 days which the Soviet side took to respond.4 Similar comparisons were made by Zhdanov in Pravda, and by Maisky, the Soviet ambassador to Britain at the time of the negotiations.5""""""In May 1939 the British cabinet was still divided on the question of an alliance with the Soviet Union, and Halifax, the foreign secretary, did not want a mutual assistance pact.7 The British government, as late as March 1939, was unduly pessimistic about the USSR’s military capability following the purges,8 and a military agreement, as desired by the Soviet Union, was without precedent for Great Britain, which failed to understand the USSR’s fear of being forced to fight a war alone against Germany. These factors made it more likely that the Western powers, rather than Molotov, would prolong negotiations. But it is true that in their later stages, once commercial negotiations with Germany had begun, it was important for Soviet politicians to keep the talks with Britain and France going to put pressure on Germany.""" # treaty text Czechoslovak-Soviet mutual assistance treaty: TREATY OF MUTUAL ASSISTANCE BETWEEN THE CZECHOSLOVAK REPUBLIC AND THE UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS. SIGNED AT PRAGUE, MAY 16TH, 1935 ^ context: # effects on socialist organizing in the United States Ottanelli 1991: the American League Against War and Fascism was a large anti-fascist organization led by the CPUSA: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1175677817149722674/image.png p172: """By the end of the 1930s, with increased concern over fascist expansion, the League became an effective vehicle for collective security. While the League never reached the 7 million members Browder claimed for it, by including all the members of the groups affiliated with it, a more realistic figure of 20,000 dues-paying members was still respectable.68 As usual the influence and power of the League went beyond its limited membership. It offered a platform for many personalities to express their anti-fascism and as such was an effective way to establish contacts with Congressmen and other influential people who would not otherwise have associated themselves directly with Communists. [....] 68. Earl Browder, "The American Communist Party," in Rita James Simon, ed., As We Saw theThirties(Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1967), 221. During Browder's testimony to the Committee on Un-American Activitieson 27 March 1937, the attorney for the committee, Rhea Whitley, askedthe Communist leader to identify the most important or successful front organizations. Browder answered: "I would say the broadest and most successful of these is the American League for Peace and Democracy."The League, he added, "answered to our conception of what was neededfor the broadest masses in this particular field." A copy of the transcript isin the Draper Papers, I, 2:51, 22.""" Ottanelli 1991: the American League Against War and Fascism was destroyed by the Molotov Ribbentrop pact: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1175677944266506250/image.png p200: """The plethora of organizations which had come to symbolize theCommunist party's anti-fascist priority and concern with the defenseof democracy, was devastated. Predictably the organization hardesthit was the American League for Peace and Democracy, whose mainobjective had been the campaign in favor of collective security. Thesigns of its crisis were immediately apparent. The League's yearlypeace march, which in 1938 had attracted 20,000 people, now drewless than half that number; some estimated that out of 20,000 members in August, 1,000 members a month resigned until in early 1940 the league was disbanded.16 Another casualty in the crumbling of thePopular Front was the League of American Writers. A third of theorganization's officers resigned; 100 out of 800 members broke withthe league publicly while many others just drifted away.17 The Nazi-Soviet Pact sheared the alliance between Communistsand their allies within the American Student Union.""" #####c ##### # negative outcomes: mass death #####o # terms and abbreviations: punishments summary: five main categories: execution, labor camp, labor colony, prison, special settler * VMN [ВМН] = highest form of punishment (VMN) [высшая мера наказания (ВМН)]: a euphemism for capital punishment: * ITL [ИTП] = corrective labor camp [Исправительно-трудовой лагерь (ИTП)]: forced labor camps, such as those run by the GULag [ГУЛаг] agency under the NKVD [НКВД]; more harsh than labor colonies and ended in 1960: * ITK [ИТК] = corrective labor colony [Исправительно-трудовая колония (ИТК)]: forced labor colonies, such as those run by the NKVD [НКВД]; far less harsh than labor camps and continued today as a common type of prison in Russia: * SpP [СпП] = special settlement, administrative category for transferred populations; see also special settlement [спецпоселе́ние (spetsposeléniye), short for специальный поселе́ние (spetsial'nyy poseléniye)]; special resettlement [спецпереселе́ние (spetspereseléniye), short for специальный переселе́ние (spetsial'nyy pereseléniye)]; exiled settler [ссыльнопоселенец (ssyl'noposelenets) or ссыльное поселенец (ssyl'noye poselenets)]; administrative deportation [административная высылка] * category 1 kulak: individually investigation, deported to labor camps * category 2 kulak: mass operation (no individual investigation), deported to distant special settlements (often Urals) * category 3 kulak: mass operation (no individual investigation), deported to closer special settlements # terms and abbreviations: organizations * VChK [ВЧК] = All-Russian Extraordinary Commission (VChK) [Всеросси́йская чрезвыча́йная коми́ссия (ВЧК)], also known as Cheka [Чекa]: intelligence services and secret police from 1917-1922: * GPU [ГПУ] = State Political Directorate (GPU) under the People's Commissariat of Interior Affairs (NKVD) of the RFSR [Государственное политическое управление (ГПУ) при Народном комиссариaте внутренних дел (НКВД) РСФСР]: intelligence services and secret police from 1922-1923: * OGPU [ОГПУ] = Joint State Political Directorate under the SNK of the USSR [Объединённое государственное политическое управление [ОГПУ] при СНК дел СССР]: intelligence services and secret police from 1923-1934: * NKVD [НКВД] or NKGB [НКГД] = People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs (NKVD) [Наро́дный комиссариа́т вну́тренних дел (НКВД)] or People's Commissariat for State Security [Наро́дный комиссариа́т государственной безопасности (НКГД)]: intelligence services and secret police from 1934-1946: * MVD [МВД] = Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) of the USSR [Министерство внутренних (МВД) дел СССР]: intelligence services (but not secret police!) from 1946-1954: * MGB [МГБ]: Ministry of State Security of the USSR [Министе́рство госуда́рственной безопа́сности СССР (МГБ)]: secret police from 1946-1954: * KGB [КГБ] = Committee for State Security (KGB) [Комитет государственной безопасности (КГБ)]: intelligence services and secret police from 1954-1991: # overall death toll Getty 1993: 2.3 million people died from Stalinist repression: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/858872309325627422/unknown.png Turning to executions and custodial deaths in the entire Stalin period, we know that, between 1934 and 1953, 1,053,829 persons died in the camps of the GULAG. We have data to the effect that some 86,582 people perished in prisons between 1939 and 1951.31 (We do not yet know exactly how many died in labor colonies.) We also know that, between 1930 and 1952-1953, 786,098 "counterrevolutionaries" were executed (or, according to another source, more than 775,866 persons "on cases of the police" and for "political crimes").32 Finally, we know that, from 1932 through 1940, 389,521 peasants died in places of "kulak" resettlement.33 Adding these figures together would produce a total of a little more than 2.3 million, but this can in no way be taken as an exact number. First of all, there is a possible overlap between the numbers given for GULAG camp deaths and "political" executions as well as between the latter and other victims of the 1937-1938 mass purges and perhaps also other categories falling under police jurisdiction. Double-counting would deflate the 2.3 million figure. On the other hand, the 2.3 million does not include several suspected categories of death in custody. It does not include, for example, deaths among deportees during and after the war as well as among categories of exiles other than "kulaks."34 Still, we have some reason to believe that the new numbers for GULAG and prison deaths, executions as well as deaths in peasant exile, are likely to bring us within a much narrower range of error than the estimates proposed by the majority of authors who have written on the subject. Wheatcroft 2009: estimates of crude mortality rate by punishment from 1890 to 1953: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/858950306842148874/unknown.png # background on soviet penal system Getty 1993: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/855118182979993600/unknown.png The penal system administered by the NKVD (Peoples' Commissariat of Internal Affairs) in the 1930s had several components: prisons, labor camps, and labor colonies, as well as "special settlements" and various types of non-custodial supervision. Generally speaking, the first stop for an arrested person was a prison, where an investigation and interrogation led to conviction or, more rarely, release.7 After sentencing, most victims were sent to one of the labor camps or colonies to serve their terms. # on soviet legalism: why documentation is easily available for the soviet union's killings Wheatcroft 1996: legalism: Stalin demanded sham trials and documentation; Hitler demanded suppression of evidence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960069462885793832/unknown.png Wheatcroft 2009: legalism: with exception of the scarce true mass operations, most trials and executions were documented for each individual: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960061474779328532/unknown.png # on distinguishing incarceration from manslaughter from purposive killings Wheatcroft 1996: we can divide repression into four types: short-term removal of civil liberties (short incarceration), long-term removal of civil liberties (long incarceration), permanent removal of civil liberties by death from high-mortality situation (manslaughter), permanent removal of civil liberties by intentional killing (murder): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1091959339440406659/image.png """The use of the word repression alone would imply that the events in the different countries at different times were uniform and in some aggregate sense comparable. I think that this would be mistaken. For a more detailed analysis we need to distinguish between different degrees of repression at different times. We could begin with the temporary removal of civil liberties, pass through longer-term removal of civil liberties, including forced labour, and end with permanent removal of civil liberties by prematurely induced death. The latter could result from conscious action—killing, or from less conscious action--placing the victims in a situation where they are more likely to starve, or die of diseases or exhaustion, or even of harsh disciplinary action. This would be equivalent to thedistinction between murder and manslaughter, between purposive killing and death resulting from criminal neglect or irresponsibility.""" Wheatcroft 1996: the lines between these categories are vague: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002811156328620042/unknown.png """This distinction between these categories of induced premature mortality is conventionally given great significance, although from the point of view of the victim the distinction may not appear all that great. In harsh disciplinary regimes the distinction would be even less clear. Harsh disciplinary action could result in deprivation of food, increased exhaustion, and reduced shelter to the point of starvation. It could also result in summary execution of prisoners for stepping out of line or 'straggling'. The environment in which these different forms of repression took place is also important. The mortality consequences of similar degrees of repression will be very different in different social environments, i.e. in times of war and in times of famine, and in societies which suffered a normally higher level of mortality.""" # executions Wheatcroft 2013: between 1921 and 1953, a minimum of 796495 and maximum of 823456 people were sentenced to death by Soviet security service; these numbers include both "politicals", criminals, and "category 1" kulaks (a small minority): XXXXX adjusting for civilian death rates would yield a figure 0.998x of that listed (ie, virtually identical) ^ Wheatcroft 2013: tables for above: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/854092316557836289/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/854788889256132668/unknown.png Pavlov = summary tables for all historians, Mozokhin = researcher given special access to original docs ^ Wheatcroft 2013: the security statistics are high-quality indicators: [T]he archives of the security service and the party leadership are still largely impenetrable to independent scholars and there remains a degree of uncertainty over many aspects of the annual summary data on arrests and sentences that was leaked in 1992 and which is known as the Pavlov data[.] [....] A very large set of detailed security service records has been published (and posted for a while on the FSB website) by the ‘special’ historian O. B. Mozokhin, who was given access to these materials and permission to publish them. I will refer to these as the Mozokhin data. (See below and in Tables 15.1 and 15.2.) [....] [T]here was a surprisingly large degree of continuity in the statistical services of the security system, and that these operational series provide the most reliable overall indicators of the scale and nature of Soviet repression prior to, during, and after the Great Terror. ^ Wheatcroft 2013: why the original documentation is kept secret: The original materials from which Pavlov produced his survey and Pavlov’s notes on his compilations are held in the Security Archives (TsA FSB RF). Th e copy of the materials received by Malenkov and Khrushchev are presumably held in their personal fi les, which are still held in the Presidential Archive (AP RF). Both the archives of the Security service and the party leadership remain beyond the reach of unauthorized historians. 11 But a copy of the four summary tables prepared by Pavlov eventually found their way into the state archives (GARF) where they became available for normal historians to investigate. 12 Th is allowed historians who did not have direct access to closed archives to cite these materials directly with an archival reference. Th is location gave the source a greater degree of respectability, and added to some extent to the authority of these fi gures. But many scholars remained worried about not having direct access to these materials, in the archive where they belonged, and not being able to investigate the rest of the materials in these archives that would show how these materials were put together, and what the base materials were. 13 # forced labor (gulags; VChK-GPU-OGPU-NKVD-MVD) Wheatcroft 1996: between 1932 and 1946, a minimum of 1.05 million (recorded by Soviet security services) and maximum of 1.45 million (also including uncaptured runaways and disappearances in transit) people died in Soviet labor camps: XXXXX after adjusting for civilian death rates: minimum 749 thousand, maximum 1297 thousand ^ Wheatcroft 1996: table for above plus explanation of limitations (above estimate is underestimate): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/854783255517986866/unknown.png The available data on annual population movement in the labour camps are given in Table 6. The number recorded on 1 January each year is given in column one; subsequent columns present movements (deaths, liberations, arrivals, net runaways, disappearance in transit, etc.) calculated as a rate per thousand of the camp population. A maximum camp death rate is calculated which includes recorded deaths, uncaptured runaways and disappearances in transit. Not all of these categories would cover deaths, but many would. The data are fairly systematically presented for the period after 1934, when the camps were placed under the control of NKVD, but before 1934 during the OGPU period, when the level of mortality and losses through runaways was much higher, the data are far less complete. Basic data for minimum death rates are also available for 1932 and 1933. ^ Wheatcroft 1996: between 1933 and 1940, the death rate among forced labor camp residents was between 3.73x and 17.14x higher than civilians of the same age group: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/854809055489949706/unknown.png Getty 1993: 1.1 million died in Stalin-era labor camps and prisons: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/855118170943913984/unknown.png Turning to executions and custodial deaths in the entire Stalin period, we know that, between 1934 and 1953, 1,053,829 persons died in the camps of the GULAG. We have data to the effect that some 86,582 people perished in prisons between 1939 and 1951.31 (We do not yet know exactly how many died in labor colonies.) ^ Alexopolous 2013: gulag death rate may be underestimates because of the practice of releasing prisoners near death: """The practice of releasing prisoners on the verge of death, which constituted an explicit policy of the gulag, persisted for decades. For example, in 1935, the procurator of Dmitlag asked the USSR Procuracy whether the cases of prisoners who were being released early due to “severe, incurable or psychological illness” could be expedited. He complained that sometimes it took months for the cases of these prisoners to be processed, by which time the prisoners had often died, hurting the camp’s mortality rate.""" ^ Alexopolous 2017: gulag death rate may be underestimates because of the officials lying and the practice of releasing prisoners near death: """Declassified Gulag archives reveal lower than expected mortality. [....] Scholars have been justifiably cautious when using this data. Internal Gulag records are often inconsistent. Both the medical-sanitation department and the accounting and distribution department kept records on inmate deaths, and their figures do not coincide. Deaths during transport did not get included in the official record.97 [97. Khlevniuk, History of the Gulag, 321–327.] Thus an accurate accounting of mortality in Stalin’s Gulag is enormously difficult to produce. The mortality rate most used in offi cial documents captured only deaths that occurred in Gulag medical facilities. In February 1933, Gulag chief Berman and Gulag medical-sanitation department chief Ginzburg complained that camp medical-sanitation departments were failing to record deaths that did not take place in their facilities.99 By the mid-1930s, deaths both in- and outside camp clinics and hospitals were reported. For 1935, Bamlag reported 5954 deaths in health care facilities and 998 outside them, for a total of 6952, or roughly 4 percent of its average prisoner population for the year.100""" ^ Healey 2018 review of Alexopolous 2017: Alexopolous arrives at a "conservative" death toll of 6 million (of 18 million inmates) by counting all released prisoners except the most healthy as soon-to-die: """Finally and most provocatively, Alexopoulos proposes a “conservative” death toll for the Gulag of at least 6 million “given the archival record on [prisoners’] ‘physical labor capability’” (243). Methodologically, this claim is in ferred from this one indicator, and Alexopoulos interprets “physical labor capability” assuming the very worst for all prisoners but those classed as healthiest. Thus, she extends the camps’ mortality rate to encompass those whose lives were shortened by Gulag toil (244), a laudable moral choice, but one with obvious methodological difficulties. How do we decide which “deaths after release” to include? If it were possible to obtain it, substantiation from local and regional sources for such a count would be needed. The central records can only hint at the phenomenon.""" ^ Petrov 2000: GULAG (Glavnoe upravlenie lagereĭ), 1918-1960 Getty 1993: between 1934 and 1940, the vast majority of GULAG residents were 19-40: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/894083834621067274/unknown.png # forced labor: most were not criminals Getty 1993: a minority of GULAG forced laborers were criminals: just 20.6% in 1934, 27.8% in 1936, and 17.3% in 1940 were sentenced for a crime, and just 4.7% in 1934, 5.5% in 1936, and 5.2% in 1940 for a "crime against persons" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/855118189070909450/unknown.png It is commonly believed that most of the prisoners of the "Gulag Archipelago" had been arrested and sentenced for political offenses falling under one of the headings of "counterrevolutionary offenses" (Article 58 in the criminal code). It is also common wisdom that many people arrested for other reasons were accused of political crimes for propaganda value. The available evidence does not bear out this view, but it does suggest considerable ambiguity in definitions of "political crimes." Table 7 shows the breakdown of labor camp inmates for selected years, according to the offense for which they were sentenced. Although the presence of alleged counterrevolutionaries is impressive, it turns out that ostensibly non-political detainees heavily outnumbered "politicals." # dekulakization Wheatcroft 1996: between 1932 and 1940, a minimum of 402 thousand (recorded by Soviet security services) and maximum of 818 thousand (also including uncaptured runaways) people died in Soviet 'special settlements' (mostly resettlement sites for dekulakization): XXXXX after adjusting for civilian death rates: minimum 210 thousand, maximum 576 thousand ^ Wheatcroft 1996: table for above plus explanation of limitations (above estimate is underestimate): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/854803557906776104/unknown.png The available data on the exiled kulaks are given in Table 7. Fairly comprehensive data sets are available from 1932 covering the famine period but, as will be described below, mortality from famine amongst the exiles was probably at its most severe in 1931—and for this year only partial data are available. ^ Wheatcroft 1996: between 1931 and 1940, the death rate among resettled kulaks was between 0.89x and 16.67x higher than the civilians death rate of all age groups: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/854809055489949706/unknown.png # repressed nationalities Wheatcroft 1996: explanation of why no firm data for this category exists: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/854804705373192192/unknown.png Later this category of special exiles was extended to cover the so-called 'repressed nationalities'. The first group amongst these were probably the Koreans who were forceably removed from the Russian Far East in 1937.45 A few years later the category was greatly increased to include deportations and executions associated with the occupation of the Baltic States and Eastern Poland between 1939 and 1941. At the beginning of the war, on 28 August 1941, the Supreme Soviet of the USSR ordered the ethnic Germans from the Volga area to be be forceably exiled to the Novosibirsk, Omsk and Altai regions and to Kazakhstan.46 Later during the war other nationalities were deported from newly liberated areas; these included the Kalmyks (26 359 families of 93 139 persons in October 1943), the Karachai (14 774 families of 69 938 persons in November 1943), the Chechen and Ingush (450 000 persons in February 1944) and the Tartars from Crimea. The main nationalities still held in the places of special exile in October 1946 are listed in Table 8. Unfortunately, so far data have not been made available to allow mortality rates amongst these later, primarily ethnic, spetspereselentsy to be calculated. ^ an additional 1 million were resettled between 1946 and 1952 (Ellman 2002, p. 1159) total 3.5 million xxxx # mass operation: katyn and related operations (in Wheatcroft 1996: 21,857 Poles were executed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895365783218167860/unknown.png """In March 1959 the KGB chief A. Shelepin wrote to Khrushchev requesting permission to dispose of the files concerning the 21,857 Poles who were shot as a result of this Politburo resolution. [...] Shelepin indicates that of the 21,857 Poles executed 4,421 were executed near Katyn Forest in Smolensk oblast', 3,820 in Starobelsk in Kharkhov oblast', 6,311 in Ostashkov in Kalinin oblast' and 7,305 elsewhere. Since the Germans claim to have discovered 10,000 bodies in Katyn, it remains unclear who the other 5,500 victims in Katyn were.""" Beria 1940: March letter to Stalin: asks "to order the NKVD of the USSR" to provide "the highest penalty" (death) in the matters of 14,700 "prisoners of war, former Polish officers, officials, landowners, policemen" etc. and in the matters of 11,000 "members of various counter-revolutionary espionage and subversive organizations"; signed the letter in approval: Joseph Stalin, Klement Voroshilov, Vyacheslav Molotov, Anastas Mikoyan; writtein in the margin: "Kalinin, yes" and "Kaganovich, yes": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895395593822810122/unknown.png source: RGANI/TsKhSD/ЦХСД, Fond 89, Opis 14, Reel 1.993, Files #1-20: Shelepin 1959: March 3rd handwritten letter to Khrushchev: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895397993514160148/unknown.png source 1: RGANI/TsKhSD/ЦХСД, Fond 89, Opis 14, Reel 1.993, Files #1–20, #12–13: source 2: RGASPI/RTsKhIDNI/РЦХИДНИ, Fond 17, Opis 166, D. 621, L. 138-139: [not available through Hoover] # mass operations: individual investigations vs mass actions Wheatcroft 2013: mass operations that did not use individual investigations were not included in the security statistics; Katyn and category 2 and 3 kulaks fall into this category: """Mass operations that were undertaken without the involvement of the investigative agencies were naturally not be included in these records. This includes most of the dekulakization operations in category 2 and 3 carried out in 1930–1. It was only the more serious category 1 kulaks who were to be tried individually in an extrajudicial manner and sentenced. These unfortunate beings were the only kulaks to be included in these records of the investigative organs. Similarly most of the exiles of ethnic groups from certain areas were to be performed without the use of the investigative organs, as were the Katyn executions. It should be noted, however, that the mass arrests and executions of the Anti-Soviet Element campaign 00447, and the ethnic campaigns of 1937–8 were all supposed to be carried out with the use of individual investigations from the investigative agencies, and in that sense they were not mass operations, and would be included in these records.""" Wheatcroft 2009: mass operations that did not use individual investigations were not included in the security statistics; Katyn and category 2 and 3 kulaks fall into this category: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895009735198261348/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895009782707159070/unknown.png "The resulting Pavlov figures have often been cited as if they were some overall summary of all repressive activities of the Security forces, rather than as the operational accounting data of the investigative organs. The claims that these data are clearly false because they fail to include all dekulakised kulaks, or the Katyn killings are invalid. Category 2 and 3 kulaks in 1930 and 1931 were ordered to be exiled without referring their cases to the investigative organs. And the Polish officers and intellectuals in 1940 were similarly processed and shot on the basis of the documents used for their arrest, without further investigations. [....] The only Security force data that we have are for cases passing through the investigative organs. We do not have any data for extrajudicial executions carried out without the involvement of the investigative agencies. These were mass operations in a specific sense in which sentences were imposed after arrest without further investigation. These were relatively rare cases during peacetime, but more regular in martial law circumstances, and in newly occupied areas. The Katyn massacre of 25,000 Polish officers and members of the intelligentsia in 1940 belongs to this category." # comparison data: overall mortality: biraben Biraben 1958: for births and deaths 1861-1956: "Tableau VI URSS Territoire Actuel" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/894999921474801764/unknown.png Biraben 1976: for births: "Tableau 3 Naissances Par Sexe en URSS" # comparison data: overall mortality: adk Andreev Darskiy Kharkova 1993: Population of the Soviet Union 1922-1991 [Население Советского Союза (Naseleniye Sovetskogo Soyuza) 1922-1991] for births and deaths 1920-1958 see Annex, Appendix I, "Оценка численности населения СССР": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/894996580896219146/unknown.png for age ranges for individual years see Annex, Appendix III, "Оценка численности населении СССР на начало года по возрасту и полу" ^ identical table as Appendix I appears in Андреев Дарский Харькова (ADK) 1990: История населения СССР 1920—1959 гг [NO RUSSIAN COPY FOUND]; Andreev Darskiy Kharkov 1990, French translation: "l'Histoire de la Population de l'URSS 1920-1959" for population, see "Annexe 1. Estimation de la population de l'URSS et des composantes de son changement (1920-1941 et 1946-1958*) en milliers d'habitants": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/894998221129142303/unknown.png # but what about the CIA documents??? Teymuri 2021: claims that CIA documents show that the size of the forced labor camp system was over-estimated by Western sources (true) and that the forced labor camps were not so inhumane after all (false): History: The Truth About the Soviet Gulag, Surprisingly Revealed by the CIA """While acknowledging the harsh conditions that existed in the Gulags – as with any prison system in the world – the goal of this article is to shed light on the following facts: (1) the harshness of the prisons has been exaggerated by the Western press, with numerous lies being made up, (2) the statistics in regards to the Gulag population have been exaggerated, (3) there was a genuine effort at improving the prison conditions when given the chance, and (4) the prison standards were much higher than those of many capitalist countries.""" ^ CIA 1957: four reports covering the forced labor camps: 1. FORCED LABOR CAMPS IN THE USSR 2. TRANSFER OF PRISONERS BETWEEN CAMPS 3. DECREES ON RELEASE FROM FORCED LABOR 4. ATTITUDE OF SOVIET PRISON OFFICIALS TOWARD SUSPECTS 1945 TO THE END OF 1955 ^ CIA 1987: update on the forced labor system: THE SOVIET FORCED LABOR SYSTEM: AN UPDATE (GI-M 87-20081) # todo Wheatcroft 1999: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/854576116035878932/unknown.png Wheatcroft 2000: #####c ##### # post-soviet polling #####o # censorship: opinion polling genuine opinion polling in the USSR effectively died (except under Kruschev and Gorbachev): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/692371581061562378/unknown.png # post-ussr polling: eastern bloc respondents have nostalgia for ussr USSR: older people are more likely to regret the collapse: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571067920667639841/FT_17.png USSR: older people are more regret to support the collapse: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571068292236574750/xrtev0jcwukswhlirsmigg.png # post-ussr polling: eastern bloc respondents don't have nostalgia for central planning 2019: people in most Eastern bloc countries net support the shift to market economies and multiparty systems: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/692363850024091748/PG_10.png 2009: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/692364692688994380/unknown.png support for the shift to market economies and multiparty systems correlates with support for democratic values: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/692363885713424434/PG_10.png ^ other polls: [unformatted unread] ^ polls to grab: [unformatted unread] # transitional elections: voters summary: it's all about wording! March 1991 USSR referendum: 78% in favor: Do you consider necessary the preservation of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics **as a renewed federation of equal sovereign republics** in which **the rights and freedom of an individual of any ethnicity will be fully guaranteed**? December 1991: 92% in favor: "Do you support the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine [included as a preamble]?" December 1991 Uzbek referendum: 98% in favor: todo: # post-ussr elections: russian voters did not elect communists 1991 presidential (strong media bias *against* Yeltsin): 58.6% Yeltsin: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/692366132061143060/unknown.png 1996 presidential (strong media bias *towards* Yeltsin): 35.8% Yeltsin: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/692367281157832734/unknown.png #####c ##### # grover furr's arguments are absurd #####o # not one crime quote Grover Furr says he is "yet to find one crime that Stalin committed": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6GnAoAUapY # critical reviews by marxists: Elich, journal name: "Science & Society A Journal of Marxist Thought and Analysis" Elich 2014: on "Khrushchev lied" and the Great Purge: Rudzutak example: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/969640620417241088/unknown.png """In his speech, Khrushchev mentioned the case of veteran Bolshevik and Central Committee member Jan Rudzutak, who “completely retracted in court the confession forced from him.” [....] Furr points out that Rudzutak confessed, but “it is problematic to convict someone of a serious crime based upon his own confession.” However, “multiple, independent accusations by different defendants” comprise “strong evidence in any judicial system” (56). True enough, but not when every one of those accusations has been extracted through torture and the defendants are told what to say in order to bring a halt to their suffering.""""""There is no evidence of Rudzutak’s innocence, Furr argues, because the Khrushchev-era Pospelov rehabilitation report [....] did not disprove the charges made against Rudzutak[.]""""""“If exculpatory evidence existed, why did they not cite it?” (57). This rather misses the point of a report and a speech. Both would extend to unwieldy length were they to address every detail. Furr also fails to recognize the impossibility of proving a negative. How can one confirm that the outlandish charges made against Rudzutak were false? Can one prove that an individual did not commit sabotage, for example? It is more meaningful to note the total lack of evidence in support of the charges.""" Elich 2014: on "Khrushchev lied" and the Great Purge: Yezhov example: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/969641635640143942/unknown.png """Khrushchev charged that Yezhov could not have arrested and shot so many prominent party officials without Stalin’s decision. Furr confirms that Yezhov had many innocent people tortured and killed, but says that Stalin blamed Yezhov and quotes him as describing Yezhov as a “scoundrel” who “ruined our best cadres” (304). After the arrest of Yezhov for his excesses, the total number of arrests and executions dropped sharply. Although the scale paled in comparison to 1937–38, there were still nearly 169,000 individuals arrested in 1939–40. This hardly constituted an end to repression.""""""It is too much to suppose that Stalin could not have seen anything amiss until the end of 1938, had he not set the repression in motion and looked favorably upon its progression. Otherwise, it would have been impossible to overlook the fact that the majority of his comrades in the Central Committee were being arrested and killed, with each accusation more improbable than the last. Nor could he have overlooked more than 1.5 million arrests and nearly 700,000 executions in the period 1937–38. The arrest of Yezhov had more to do with a policy change and a shifting of blame, than with a sluggish dawning of recognition.""" ^ Elich is no right-winger: # critical reviews by marxists: Meyer, PhD historian Meyer 2018: expulsion of ethnic minorities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/969640287167205426/unknown.png """Furr defends the Soviet state’s expulsion of the Volga Germans, Tartars, Chechens, and other ethnic minorities from their homelands “because of collaboration with the Nazis.” However, these minority people were exiled before the German invasion of the Soviet Union. Furr provides no evidence that these peoples were somehow in communication with the Nazis, plotting ways to undermine the defenses of the Soviet Union.""" ^ Meyer is no right-winger: # only positive academic-ish reception: another stalinist Holmstrom 2012: # reddit posts (yes, I know) discussing specific failures in two of furr's articles discussing Furr's "Moscow Trials": discussing Furr's "Stalin and the Struggle for Democratic Reform": discussing Furr's claims about the Great Purge: # "you can't name even ONE crime of stalin" owned with facts and logic #####c #####c ##### # # other centrally planned economies # #####o ##### # east germany [unformatted] #####o # growth east germany grew as quickly as west germany did (p.53): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640208079396274197/unknown.png # growth: reparations reparations were extremely expensive: The reorientation and restructuring of the East German economy would have been difficult in any case. The substantial reparations costs that the Soviet Union imposed on its occupation zone, and later on East Germany, made the process even more difficult. Payments continued into the early 1950s, ending only with the death of Stalin. According to Western estimates, these payments amounted to about 25 percent of total East German production through 1953. # nostalgia East Germany: [unformatted] # sexuality women in East Germany reported substantially higher sexual satisfaction than West Germany: """In 1988, Kurt Starke and Ulrich Clement conducted the first comparative study of the self-reported sexual experiences of East and West German female students. They found that the East German women said they enjoyed sex more and reported a higher rate of orgasm than their Western counterparts. In 1990, another study comparing the sexual attitudes of youth in the two Germanys found that GDR men’s and women’s preferences were more in sync with each other than those of young men and women in the West. For example, one survey found that 73 percent of East German women and 74 percent of East German men wanted to get married. In contrast, 71 percent of women in the West desired marriage, but only 57 percent of Western men did, a fourteen-point difference. A different survey about sexual experiences uncovered much higher levels of self-reported sensual enjoyment among East German women. When asked if their last tryst had left them feeling satisfied, 75 percent of GDR women and 74 percent of GDR men said yes, compared to 84 percent of FRG men and a mere 46 percent of FRG women. Finally, respondents were asked to report whether they felt “happy” after sex. Among the East German women 82 percent agreed, whereas among West German women only 52 percent reported feeling “happy.” To reverse that statistic, only 18 percent of GDR females were not “happy” after sex, compared to almost half of the surveyed females in the FRG.""" #####c #####c ##### # # alleged socialist countries # #####o ##### # bolivia [unformatted] #####o # growth bolivia has grown more quickly (3.2%/year) than the Latin American average (1.3%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644152903736754179/unknown.png # nationalization Bolivia diversified under Morales: In the first eight years of the Morales administration, national government revenue from hydrocarbons increased nearly sevenfold from $731 million to $4.95 billion.8 This increase was not primarily the result of rising prices of hydrocarbons (75 percent of Bolivia’s exports of hydrocarbons were natural gas). Most of the increased revenue was a result of the nationalization and associated policy changes, including a doubling of production by 2013. 9 state assets have quintupled since 2010: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644154167937597456/unknown.png # financial system savings in Bolivia are up: The change in the size of the Bolivian financial system has also been impressive. Deposits have grown at an average yearly rate of 14 percent (between 2008 and 2019) even with a relative slowdown in the last couple of years (5.9 percent in 2018 and 3.4 percent year-over-year as of June 2019).19 [....] Directed lending for productive sectors and low interest rate ceilings are part of the toolkit successfully deployed by the monetary authorities.21 Total credit in the financial system has grown at an average of 16 percent per year since 2008.22 # deficit spending deficit spending has increased, but is relatively small: Bolivia’s government budget deficit averaged just 1.5 percent of GDP annually between 2006 and 2018. However, between 2015 and 2018, the average annual budget deficit grew to 7.5 percent of GDP; on average, 4.3 percentage points of the deficit were financed internally by the Central Bank.26 From 2005 to 2017, the Bolivian government increased social spending by 80 percent in real terms. # social spending social spending has enormously increased: Since 2000, Bolivia has the highest rate of public investment, as a percent of GDP, in the region.24 While acknowledging its positive macroeconomic effects, the IMF has criticized the efficiency of Bolivia’s public investment in terms of outcomes per dollar spent.25 In the last few years, Bolivia’s public sector deficit has increased substantially due to high public investment in the context of less favorable terms of trade. [....] Bolivia’s government has directed large amounts of resources to social spending, especially cash transfers targeted toward vulnerable sectors of the population. The three most important transfer programs are Juancito Pinto, a grant to families with children that is designed to incentivize children’s school attendance; Juana Azurduy, which gives funds to uninsured new mothers as an incentive for them to seek medical care during and after their pregnancies, in order to reduce maternal and infant mortality; and Renta Dignidad, which provides grants for those over the age of 60. These cash transfer programs translate into increased consumer spending and sustained reduction of extreme poverty. In 2018, 5.8 million Bolivians — 51.8 percent of the population — received a direct government cash transfer.29 [....] However, it is arguable that the government could have done even more for the poor. As a percent of GDP, social spending actually decreased between 2005 and 2013, though it has since risen to 12.7 percent of GDP, up from 12.4 percent of GDP in 2005.30 the minimum wage has sextupled since 2000 without significant increases in inflation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644155032433852416/unknown.png poverty rates have fallen from 37.7 to 15.2%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644155422642798592/unknown.png # unemployment unemployment has enormously dropped: Higher real wages have not decreased employment; in fact unemployment was nearly halved (from 7.7 percent to 4.4 percent) in 2008, in large part due to the spending increases that year, and has continued at roughly around that level through 2018. # purchasing power real incomes have substantially risen: The consistent increase in Bolivians’ purchasing power via increased employment, higher real wages, and government transfers has contributed to reducing the poverty rate (as measured by income). The poverty rate is below 35 percent (down from 60 percent in 2006), and the extreme poverty rate is 15.2 percent (down from 37.7 percent in 2006).35 #####c ##### # venezuela [unformatted] #####o # not socialist: investment discussion of investment and socialism in Venezuela: """What went wrong with the laudable aims of Chavismo? Could this tragedy been avoided? Well, yes, if the Chavista revolution had not stopped at less than halfway, leaving the economy still predominantly in the control of capital. Instead, the Chavista and Maduro governments relied on high oil prices and huge oil reserves to reduce poverty, while failing to transform the economy through productive investment, state ownership and planning. Between 1999 and 2012 the state had an income of $383bn from oil, due not only to the improvement in prices, but also to the increase in the royalties paid by the transnationals. However, this income was not used transform the productive sectors of the economy. Yes, some was used to improve the living standards of the most impoverished masses. But there was no plan for investment and growth. Venezuelan capital was allowed to get on with it – or not as the case may be. Indeed, the share of industry in GDP fell from 18% of GDP in 1998 to 14% in 2012.""" # not socialist: public control in 2011, public employment in Venezuela was just 18.4% of the labor force, compared to 14.2% of the labor force in the US: A more recent estimate by the International Labor Organization puts the public sector employment in Venezuela at 29%, below India, Russia, Norway, Singapore, Denmark: Government consumption makes up just 14.5% of Venezuelan GDP: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/478758023641169925/unknown.png # oil: impact on economy oil prices data: if your economy is highly dependent on oil, your economy mostly rises and falls with the oil prices: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/473308456732983339/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/473308754411257877/unknown.png # debt data: # inflation data data: # food report: US newspapers and journals often attribute their Venezuelan hunger figures to “a recent survey … by the country’s leading universities.” The survey in question was published on February 27, 2016 by Simón Bolívar University, the Central University of Venezuela, and the Bengoa Foundation. The report, which focuses on Venezuelan nutrition, is part of an annual review covering the state of living conditions in the country. Maritza Landaeta-Jiménez, who as recently as 2013 was a member of the Venezuelan opposition’s Nutrition Commission, headed the 2016 research. **The document, based on a survey of 6,413 Venezuelans, reported that 93 percent of Venezuelans felt that they did not have enough money to purchase food, and that 72.7 percent of Venezuelans had lost an average of 8.7 kilograms (19 pounds) in the past year. However, the same survey revealed that 67.5 percent of Venezuelans were eating three meals a day, and only 25 percent of the country felt that their nutrition could be categorized as “deficient.”** shortages: When Venezuelan economist and Universidad Simón Bolívar professor Pasqualina Curcio put these claims to the test in her extensive investigation of the country’s current economic situation, she had some interesting findings. First, several of the missing products have not been regulated since 2010, and among those that are regulated, the government has raised prices in an effort to incentivize distributors several times recently, but this has not resulted in increased availability. Second, the shortages began to intensify in 2013, before oil prices plummeted and while dollars were still readily available. Even once oil prices dropped and dollars became less available, the government continued to prioritize dollars for food import, and by their own accounting, the production levels of Venezuela’s major food companies have been stable or have even increased in that time. Curcio also found a correlation between intensity of food shortages and politically important moments, such as the lead-up to elections. Could it be that the shortages are manufactured? Many food sovereignty activists see it as no coincidence that Polar, the country’s largest food company, responsible for many of the items missing from shelves, is owned by a well-known member of the political opposition to the government. FAO venezuela: http://www.fao.org/countryprofiles/index/en/?iso3=VEN food security data: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FS food security data in detail: http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-fs/ess-fadata/en/ (see metadata sheets) food balance sheets data: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/CC food security methodology: Parameters to characterize the distribution of food consumption employed to estimate the PoU are derived from different sources. To compute per mean or per capita DEC at a national level, FAO relies on Food Balance Sheets. The latest data from this source refer to 2011; therefore, additional sources were needed to estimate the DEC for the last 3 years, from 2012-14. The main source for 2012 and 2013 estimates were projections prepared by the Trade and Market Division of FAO. The Holt-Winters distributed lag model was instead used to project the DEC for 2014. In some cases, the same model was applied to compute projections also for 2012 and 2013, when data from the Trade and Market Division were not available. The Holt-Winters model uses a process known as exponential smoothing, which attributes higher weights to the more recent data and progressively less weight to the older observations. Weights decrease in each period by a constant amount, which lies on an exponential curve. For countries showing peculiar patterns, other simpler forecasting models were used, such as linear or exponential trends. food balance methodology: http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/X9892E/X9892e01.htm#P78_13383 Food balance sheets are assembled form a variety of sources. The quality of the balance sheets and their coverage vary considerably among countries and commodities. Inaccuracies and errors may be introduced at each stage of a balance sheet's construction. The user of these data must therefore bear in mind their limitations. Ideally, the basic data required for the preparation of food balance sheets should be obtained from the same source. This implies that, firstly, the country should have a comprehensive statistical system which records all current information relating to each component of the food balance sheet (starting from producers to consumers). Secondly, concepts of the information adopted should be those of the food balance sheet concepts. Thirdly, the information available should be consistent, at least with respect to measurement unit and time reference period. In practice, however, such an ideal statistical system does not exist. Even in the few, mainly developed, countries which possess uncommonly sophisticated reporting procedures, the available data do not always meet either the second or third condition. Therefore, in practice, the basic data are necessarily based on a large variety of sources. The main sources commonly used are discussed below. Production and trade data are part of the ongoing national official statistics. They are based either on direct enquiries or records, or are estimated by Government agencies. Information on stock changes is available from marketing authorities and factories or from farmer stock surveys. Information on industrial uses are obtained from industrial/manufacturing censuses/surveys. Feed and seeding rates are obtained from cost of production surveys or are estimated by the Government agencies concerned. Losses occurring in industrial processing are also obtained from manufacturing surveys. ^ counter-fao article: http://web.archive.org/web/20180110020223/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/21/venezuela-has-solved-its-hunger-problem-dont-believe-the-u-n-s-numbers/?utm_term=.759b2d528f99 # elections 1998 Presidential election: 1998 election, Carter Center: Overall, the Council of Freely Elected Heads of Government observers expressed enthusiasm about the election process and were impressed by the technology involved in the automation of the vote. Problems were reported in only 16 of 252 voting sites visited, and most of these would not affect the results of the elections. The delegates found voters, poll workers, party witnesses, and soldiers worked together harmoniously to make this a transparent and peaceful election that clearly reflected the will of the Venezuelan people. 2000 Presidential + National Assembly election: 2000 election, Carter Center: We congratulate the Venezuelan people for their enthusiastic participation in yesterday´s elections. We are extremely impressed with citizens´ desire to exercise their right to vote and commend them on their patience and peacefulness. Our delegates found political party witnesses in almost all voting sites, representing a variety of parties at the national and local levels. In addition, the voting table workers had the basic knowledge necessary, worked diligently to instruct the voters on properly completing the ballots, and strived to overcome the difficulties of this complicated election process. 2000 election, Organization of American States: The election campaign was conducted in an overall framework of freedom of expression, pluralism, and a high degree of public participation, fostered by the diversity of candidates, party backed and independent, and by the efforts of campaigners to mobilize the public, at the national as well as at the state and municipal levels. 2004 Presidential recall referendum: 2004 recall referendum, Carter Center: The second audit showed a high accuracy of the voting machines with discrepancies of less than 0.1 percent. The sample was analyzed, and it does not have different properties than the universe. The sample generation program was analyzed as part of the 2nd audit process and again in this study. Both studies showed that the sample does not operate on a subset of the universe, thus hiding or masquerading some of the properties of the universe. Consequently the results of the 2nd audit accurately confirm the electoral results of Aug. 15. 2005 National Assembly election: 2006 election: 2006 election, Carter Center: In response to an invitation from the Venezuelan National Electoral Council (CNE), The Carter Center organized a specialized, technical mission to observe the use of automated voting technology employed in the Dec. 3, 2006, presidential elections in Venezuela. 2007 constitutional referendum: 2007 constitutional referendum, Carter Center: Venezuelan citizens responded on Dec. 2 in a peaceful and orderly way to the referendum convoked by the National Electoral Council (CNE) to approve or reject the proposal to reform the National Constitution, presented to the citizens by the government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. With 90 percent of the vote counted, the CNE declared the referendum defeated, and immediately thereafter President Hugo Chávez Frías accepted the results on national television. 2010 election: 2012 Presidential election: 2012 Presidential election, Carter Center: The 2012 presidential elections in Venezuela won by Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías reflected and reinforced the intense political contestation and social polarization Venezuelans have grown accustomed to since Chávez was first elected to the presidency in December 1998. Fortunately, tensions did not boil over and voting took place peacefully amid the high stakes election on Oct. 7, 2012. [....] Even so, isolated claims of fraud surfaced after the vote. Nevertheless, the whole opposition leadership, including, most importantly, Capriles himself, unequivocally rejected those claims, stating that the results reflected the will of the electorate. [....] Because the Center did not have an election observation mission in Venezuela, this report is not a comprehensive assessment of the quality of the electoral process as a whole. The report is based on the interviews conducted, the reports of national observer organizations, an analysis of Venezuelan laws and regulations, and a digest of personal observations from a nine-month monitoring period. 2013 Presidential election: 2013 Presidential election, Carter Center: As the high turnout and many opinion polls demonstrate, the Venezuelan population, and the political parties and candidates in gene ral, have confidence in the performance and integrity of the automated touch-screen voting machines. As the postelection citizen verification audits of 100 percent of the voting machines demonstrated, the automated system functioned as expected in recording the votes cast, transmitting, and counting them on April 14. There was not agreement, however, about the quality of the voting conditions and guarantees that every registered voter is able to vote one time, and only one time. In stark comparison to the October election, when the Capriles campaign and the MUD opposition coalition questioned the conditions of competition, after the April election they also questioned the conditions of voting, a heightened criticism that went to the heart of the system’s legitimacy. 2015 election: 2018 Presidential election: Jimmy Carter, 2012: https://youtu.be/VPKPw4t6Sic?t=2629 Some of the problems that John mentioned are serious, but I think the elections in Venezuela; although some people have criticized the result, which is Hugo Chavez having won. There is no doubt in my mind, having monitored very closely the election process, that he won fairly and squarely. As a matter of fact, of the 92 elections we've monitored, I would say the election process in Venezuela is the best in the world. # media from 2000 to 2010, government media averaged just 3% audience share: As can be seen from the table, as of September 2010, Venezuelan state TV channels had just a 5.4 percent audience share. Of the other 94.6 percent of the audience, 61.4 percent were watching privately owned television channels, and 33.1 percent were watching paid TV. Since the private TV owners are mostly against the government, it is clear that more than 94 percent of the TV that is seen by Venezuelans is not progovernment. In fact, much of the private media is stridently antigovernment, in ways that go beyond the boundaries of what is permitted in the United States, for example. There are no data that describe the breakdown of audience share of the various TV channels on the basis of political bias. However, it is clear from this data, based on household surveys over a 10-year period, that statements about the Venezuelan government “controlling” or “dominating” the media are not only exaggerated, but simply false. in the 2013 election, the opposition candidate Capriles routinely received more airtime than Maduro: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/547505802416619521/unknown.png #####c ##### # chile under allende [unformatted] #####o # economy under allende: printing money almost certainly caused major inflation Pseudoerasmus 2015: the Chilean deficit rose from 6.6% to 30.5% of GDP and was financed almost entirely by printing money (6.6% to 30.4%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867854407366475797/unknown.png Caputo 2020: hyperinflation started around 1972q2 and rose from ~25%pa in 1970 to ~600%pa in 1973, seignorage rose from 4% in 1970 to 14% to 1973: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867856583936573480/unknown.png # economy under allende: cia funded opposition Pseudoerasmus 2015: Hersh 1974: in September 1974, the CIA admitted that it spent $8 million to support a strike among truckers, shopkeepers, and other professionals: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/869716404008550420/unknown.png Wilkie 2020: Chile saw dramatically increasing industrial disputes from 1962 (410 disputes, 84k workers involved) to 1966 (1073, 195k, 2015k working days learned) to 1973 (2050 disputes, 711k workers, 2503k working days lost): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867852424038318110/unknown.png ^ see chile_industrial_disputes.R for graph xxx todo # economy: sabotage the CIA funded the truckers and taxi strikes that crippled the Chilean economy: The Central Intelligence Agency secretly financed striking labor unions and trade groups in Chile for more than 18 months before President Salvador Allende Gossens was overthrown, intelligence sources revealed today. They said that the majority of more than $8 million authorized for clandestine C.I.A. activities in Chile was used in 1972 and 1973 to provide strike benefits and other means of support for anti‐Allende strikers and workers. [....] Among those heavily subsidized, the sources said, were the organizers of a nationwide truck strike that lasted 26 days in the fall of 1972, seriously disrupting Chile's economy and provoking the first of a series of labor crises for President Allende. Continue reading the main story Direct subsidies, the sources said, also were provided for a strike of middle‐class shopkeepers and a taxi strike among others, that disrupted the capital city of Santiago in the summer of 1973, shortly before Mr. Allende was over thrown by a military coup. At its peak, the 1973 strikes involved more than 250,000 truck drivers, shopkeepers and professionals who banded to gether in a middle‐class move ment that, many analysts have concluded, made a violent overthrow inevitable. shop-owners and the USA both worked to create an artificial shortage of food: : The march protested shortages of foodstuffs and a distribution system that generated long lines of shoppers waiting to buy basic products at controlled prices. The shortages themselves were a product of conservative obstruction, as store owners took items off the shelves and sold them on the black market; the opposition media created panic-buying by reporting on shortages that did not (yet) exist, and Washington instituted an “invisible blockade” by denying credit to the UP government. the IMF, acting for US interests, largely blocked loan requests from Chile: After Pinochet was installed, the IMF and World Bank restructured Chilean debt on much more favorable terms than those afforded Allende, and foreign banks returned almost overnight. the IMF was more than happy to give big loans to Pinochet: # CIA opposition the CIA funded the 1964 election: "The CIA sweetened the alliance, providing an estimated $4 million of covert assistance to Frei and stood behind the PDC’s scare campaign designed to play to women voters, intimating that if Allende won, they stood to lose their children, their homes, and even the concept of motherhood itself." the CIA planned to sabotague Allende's presidency: A smooth transition was further undermined by the Nixon Administration’s determination to block Allende. As part of a broader scheme, the CIA supplied a group of right-wing plotters with arms and funding to kidnap the constitutionalist Commander-in-Chief of the Army, General René Schneider, an outrage to be blamed on the Left and designed to prod the military into action against Allende.45 The plot failed, Schneider was killed, and on October 24, Congress elected the UP’s candidate. But intransigent opposition to Allende from Washington, the National Party, and an emerging paramilitary right, together with Christian Democratic distrust, suggested how demanding would be his task ahead. the CIA funded the 1970 election: With polling predicting an Alessandri victory, and the CIA funding a spoiling operation designed to raise fears of Allende, Washington expected voters would again reject the socialist. # allende democratic left and center-left parties gained under Allende (1973): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/595218141076783104/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/595218280055308288/unknown.png most of the claims of authoritarianism under Allende -- terrorist training camps, Plan Z, "17,000 Cubans", are provably false: https://www.economist.com/the-americas/1999/01/28/blackwashing-allende Allende refused the revolutionary path, to his party's leadership's chagrin: Debate within the PS revealed a sharply divided party. Members of the party’s Central Committee, having declared the party Marxist-Leninist in 1967, opposed Allende’s selection, but the rank-and-file and regional party heads were firm in their support for the only person they thought could unite the left. In January 1970, the UP named him their candidate. It was, the Communist’s Luís Corvalán dryly observed, “a forceps birth.” Allende's economic policy was aimed at increasing democratic support: Allende’s approach tightly entwined economic and political policy. An economy that expanded through Keynesian demand-side measures, advanced national producers at the expense of multinational firms and small businesses over monopolies, turned land over to peasant cultivators, and redistributed income, would also, he predicted, engender support at the polls. With enough time, he could introduce a plebiscite allowing the constitutional changes needed to give him the authority to further expand state control of the economy, create a single legislative chamber, and reform the judiciary. Allende refused to use military power to implement his goals: When Army General Roberto Viaux revolted against Frei in 1969, the Central Committee of the Socialist Party called on workers “not to defend the bourgeois institutional order, but [instead] to mobilize around their own social and political demands.” Allende vigorously dissented and rushed to the Moneda to show his support for the President.66 And yet, Allende’s conviction that the military must respect the constitutional order was not shared by his conservative opponents. Even before Allende was elected, Jorge Alessandri, in a May 1970 campaign speech, had called on the “patriotic” military to intervene as needed “to save the liberty that we so love” from those who hold “criminal doctrines.”67 Ryan 2008: Church Report 1975: ##### # chile under pinochet [unformatted] #####o # economy under pinochet there was no Chilean miracle: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867851736119115786/unknown.png # economy: data unemployment under Pinochet: life expectancy in Chile, 1960-2018: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/595205936206053386/unknown.png change in life expectancy in Chile, 1960-2017: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/595206736982573066/unknown.png after pinochet, poverty rapidly fell from 40% to 15% in 25 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/595209702556827669/CFB816.png post-Pinochet, poverty fell faster in Chile than any other Latin American country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/595224230354878464/unknown.png pinochet significantly increased inequality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/595211353300402187/unknown.png inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGCHL real GDP per capita: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NYGDPPCAPKDCHL GDP: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640988148553482241/pinochet-years.png infant mortality: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNIMRTINCHL net migration: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMPOPNETMCHL reserve assets: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/XFORSD01CLQ194N # economy: "socialism", privatization, re-nationalization the 1982 crash was partially caused by and worsened by privatization: """Pinochet did not destroy Chile's economy all by himself. He had the help of academia's most brilliant minds: a gaggle of Milton Friedman's trainees, the Chicago Boys. Under their spell, the General abolished the minimum wage, outlawed union bargaining, privatised the pension system, abolished all taxes on wealth and business profits, slashed public employment, privatised 212 industries and 66 banks and ran a fiscal surplus. Free of the dead hand of bureaucracy, taxes and unions, the country took a giant leap... into bankruptcy and depression. After nine years of Chicago-style economics, Chile's industry keeled over and died. [....] The Chicago Boys persuaded the junta that removing restrictions on the nation's banks would free them to attract foreign capital to fund industrial expansion. Pinochet sold off the state banks - at a 40 per cent discount against book value. They fell into the hands of two conglomerate empires, controlled by speculators Javier Vial and Manuel Cruzsat. Using these banks, Vial and Cruzat bought up manufacturers, then leveraged these assets with loans from foreign investors panting for their piece of the state giveaway. By 1982, the pyramid finance game was up. The Vial and Cruzat 'Grupos' defaulted. Industry shut down, private pensions became worthless, and the currency swooned. Riots and strikes by a population too desperate to fear bullets forced Pinochet to boot out his beloved Chicago experimentalists.""" after the crash, Pinochet moved back towards "socialism" (re-nationalization of the copper firms): Reluctantly, the General restored the minimum wage and collective bargaining. Having previously decimated the ranks of state employees, he authorised a programme to create 500,000 jobs. Chile was pulled from depression by dull old Keynesian remedies, all Franklin Roosevelt, zero Margaret Thatcher. (The junta even instituted what is today South America's only law restricting the flow of foreign capital.) New Deal tactics rescued Chile from the panic of 1983, but the nation's long-term recovery and growth is the result of (cover the children's ears) a large dose of socialism. To save the nation's pension system, Pinochet nationalised banks and industry on a scale unimagined by Salvador Allende. The General expropriated at will, offering little or no compensation. While most were eventually reprivatised, the state retained ownership of one industry: copper. For nearly a century, copper has meant Chile and Chile has meant copper. Dr Janet Finn, metals expert at the University of Montana, remarks: 'It's absurd to describe a nation as a miracle of free enterprise when the engine of the economy remains in government hands.' (And not just any government: a Pinochet law, still in force, gives the military 10 per cent of state copper revenues.) Copper has provided between 30 and 70 per cent of the nation's export earnings. This is the hard currency that has built today's Chile. The proceeds from the mines seized from Anaconda and Kennecott in 1973 was Allende's posthumous gift to his nation. Agribusiness was the second locomotive of the Allende years. According to Professor Arturo Vasquez of Georgetown University, Washington DC, Allende's land reform, the break-up of feudal estates (which Pinochet could not fully reverse), created a new class of productive tiller-owners who, along with corporate and co-operative operators, now bring in a stream of export earnings to rival copper. # clips todo reread Death toll under Pinochet: 3000 + 27 000 tortured https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-14584095 Clip about food shortages/ Trucker's strike https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6ibj2ZInLk Clip about Victor Jara https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMwCbAQ5TUQ Clip about how the US attempted to stop Allende's inauguration https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8R7MNnoYktM 1971: Economic boom https://books.google.com.au/books?id=2IuD2u6ZV1wC&pg=PA14&dq=Allende+inflation+declined+1971&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Allende%20inflation%20declined%201971&f=false 1971: Municipal elections https://books.google.com.au/books?id=cmCrF2G7YQ0C&pg=PA160&dq=1971+municipal+elections+Allende&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=1971%20municipal%20elections%20Allende&f=false militancy of the peasantry https://books.google.com.au/books?id=rFuwCwAAQBAJ&pg=PA137&dq=Peasants+seizing+land+chile&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj69dXHg4_ZAhUEjlQKHe6ZAX8Q6AEIKTAA#v=onepage&q=Peasants%20seizing%20land%20chile&f=false MIR not supported by Allende: https://books.google.com.au/books?id=bJxQIK4WHMkC&pg=PA10&dq=Allende+MIR&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwii3MOGhI_ZAhWCwFQKHe3iCiQQ6AEILzAB#v=onepage&q=Allende%20MIR&f=false CDP support for coup https://books.google.com.au/books?id=tSRwDMJdcLIC&pg=PA26&dq=Eduardo+Frei+military+would+pass&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwikpsv3uI_ZAhUrhlQKHQoXDXoQ6AEILDAA#v=onepage&q=Eduardo%20Frei%20military%20would%20pass&f=false Strikes: https://www.nytimes.com/1974/09/20/archives/cia-is-linked-to-strikes-in-chile-that-beset-allende-intelligence.html Rightwing Terrorism: https://books.google.com.au/books?id=Bbj_AwAAQBAJ&pg=PA213&dq=CIA+funded+fatherland+and+liberty&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=CIA%20funded%20fatherland%20and%20liberty&f=false Debt: https://books.google.com.au/books?id=8gDGCr4XgRsC&pg=PA140&lpg=PA140&dq=Frei+Budget+deficit&source=bl&ots=KzYEZxd0s3&sig=bNmCp_nglfFx962Bcnh2OPbGJ3g&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Frei%20Budget%20deficit&f=false Copper: https://books.google.com.au/books?id=X2OJhrWo6PcC&pg=PT367&dq=Allende+80%25+copper+exports&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Allende%2080%25%20copper%20exports&f=false Inflation: https://books.google.com.au/books?id=KXMNKAp5PWIC&pg=PA116&lpg=PA116&dq=Allende+congress+blocked+tax&source=bl&ots=3v_VmmGSz6&sig=yHDHIx7ODF39MNNuhXoydpXLgG8&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Allende%20congress%20blocked%20tax&f=false and https://books.google.com.au/books?id=KXMNKAp5PWIC&pg=PA118&dq=Allende+recession&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Allende%20recession&f=false Hoarding: https://books.google.com.au/books?id=17gwDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA66&dq=Chile+the+shops+were+full+of+food+the+day+after+the+coup&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Chile%20the%20shops%20were%20full%20of%20food%20the%20day%20after%20the%20coup&f=false and https://books.google.com.au/books?id=DigZAwAAQBAJ&pg=PA64&dq=Chile+the+shops+were+full+of+food+the+day+after+the+coup&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false # autocracy under pinochet the 1978 national consultation had an absurdly biased form and question design: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilean_national_consultation,_1978 #####c #####c ##### # # united states of america # #####o ##### # joe biden: good changes #####o # international relations: airstrikes: dramatic decrease All AirWars graphs: Iraq and Syria: 31 civilian deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962948834219139092/unknown.png Somalia: 0 civilian deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962948876971679815/unknown.png Yemen: 4-8 civilian deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962948966478127124/unknown.png # international relations: airstrikes: where to push biden demand increased monitoring, investigating, and transparently releasing estimates of civilian harm from US military actions: # international relations: syria: comparison with russia Airwars: this page notes only events attribtued *solely* to Russia, excluding those linked to the Syrian regime (which is difficult to distinguish, given that they fly the same machines and use the same munitions): Airwars: see discussion here: estimated death toll: about 24,743 total, with 4.3k-6.4k from Russia alone and 10k-17.1k from events with Russia and another actor alleged: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1029877813328740373/unknown.png Airwars: even the United States admits to roughly 1 in 13 of the civilian deaths that its strikes likely caused: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1029878276488958042/unknown.png # additional airstrike datasets BIJ: ended in 2020, covered Afghanistan (2015-20), Pakistan (2004-2018), Somalia (2001-2020), and Yemen (2001-2020): Yemen Data Project: Yemen (2015-current): FDD Long War Journal: Yemen (2002-2019), Somalia (2007-2022), Pakistan (2004-2018), Libya (2014-2019): (note that the FDD is center-right: ) NewAmerica, partnering with AirWars: Libya 2012-2020: NewAmerica: Somalia 2003-2022: NewAmerica: Yemen 2002-2021: NewAmerica: Pakistan 2003-2018: Airwars: Afghanistan secret data: Airwars: "credibles" released by the US military: #####c ##### # 2020: general #####o # accuracy of general election polling as general election approaches: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/711384355104358501/skelley.png # mail-in voting: very popular: """According to the Pew Research Center, 65 percent of adults said that any voter should be able to vote early or absentee without an excuse. Furthermore, an additional 14 percent thought a documented reason should be required, but that COVID-19 should count as one of the reasons. As a result, only 19 percent of Americans believed that voters should need an excuse other than the pandemic to vote absentee.""" impact on party vote is small: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/736639963571159120/drutman.png # labor issues: democrats in general Newman 2020: Democrats are more consistently voting in favor of union bills than ever before (mostly due to losing conservative Southern senators): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/760534760719253536/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/760874282447405116/unknown .png # trump and unions Trump has attacked private-sector unions: Trump has attacked public-sector unions: # trump and minimum wages Trump has said he opposes any federal minimum wage: # trump has appointed many judges Appointments: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/01/28/judicial-appointments-in-trumps-first-three-years-myths-and-realities/ # biden and the 1994 crime bill background from Wikipedia: """The Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994, H.R. 3355, Pub.L. 103–322 is an Act of Congress dealing with crime and law enforcement; it became law in 1994. It is the largest crime bill in the history of the United States and consisted of 356 pages that provided for 100,000 new police officers, $9.7 billion in funding for prisons and $6.1 billion in funding for prevention programs, which were designed with significant input from experienced police officers.[1] Sponsored by Representative Jack Brooks of Texas, the bill was originally written by Senator Joe Biden of Delaware and then was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Bill Clinton.""" opinion polling: passage of the crime bill was preceded by a significant increase in the belief that crime was the "most important" issue and followed by a substantial decrease in said belief: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/732991338059923486/unknown.png opinion polling: most black voters and many black representatives (28 of 41) supported the 1994 crime bill: """A 1994 Gallup survey found that 58% of African Americans supported the crime bill — compared with 49% of whites. The only black senator, Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois, supported it. Of the 40 members of the Congressional Black Caucus, just 12 voted against it.""" at the time, most Americans and most black people supported the conservative elements of the 1994 crime bill; this must be contextualized in the 1960-1990 crime wave and the constant drumbeat of news coverage of that crime wave: """It is no wonder that many African Americans had started to embrace punitive prescriptions by 1994. In the General Social Survey, black support for the death penalty for individuals convicted of murder increased from 39 percent in 1980 to 53.5 percent in 1992. African Americans certainly supported rehabilitation more than whites and desired gun control. Many were also clear-eyed about racial disparities in the criminal justice system. According to a 1994 Los Angeles Times poll, 43 percent of African Americans believed that stricter laws and prison sentences would increase discrimination against minority groups. Still, concern about racism and liberal tendencies did not curtail black support for punishment. In that same poll, 71 percent of blacks said that juveniles who commit crimes should be treated as adults, and 67 percent supported proposals that would require “any criminal convicted of three violent felonies be imprisoned for life without the possibility of parole.” Other surveys confirm these trends. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC survey, majorities of racial minorities supported adding 100,000 more police officers on the streets, allowing juveniles as young as 14 to be tried as adults when accused of a serious crime, and making more offenses eligible for the death penalty. A 1994 Time/CNN poll showed that, while only 33 percent of African Americans supported stop and frisk, 64.5 percent favored “life imprisonment for anyone convicted of three serious crimes” and 79 percent supported a 10pm curfew for children under the age of 18. Based her analysis of this survey, Katherine Tate, an expert on African American politics at Brown University, concluded that black opinion “favored the conservative elements of Clinton’s crime bill.”""" Gallup: 1994 saw highest support for "more law enforcement" as approach to lowering crime: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/732993039794176060/unknown.png the crime bill did not cause (or end) mass incarceration: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/732993178319454247/unknown.png Sabol 2020: xxx: While many African-American communities, and others, were clearly concerned about crime and violence, Black political leadership did not coalesce around the bill. Congressman John Conyers, the dean of the Congressional Black Caucus and then-chair of the House Judiciary Committee, led an effort to promote an alternative crime bill, deriding prison expansion as a “simplistic approach to the crime problem.” The Black Caucus bill emphasized support for crime prevention programs, drug treatment, and creating job opportunities. #####c ##### # donald trump #####o # bad economics: overall there's no evidence that trump has affected the economy positively or negatively: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640985796018700288/shularick18jlyfig1.png # bad economics: debt ^ context: before Trump, most US debt came from the Bush tax cuts and Bush wars: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641996852409008168/3-1-13bud.png # bad economics: tax bill / tax cut 83% of the benefits of the Trump tax bill will go to the top 1%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542388160156401674/tpc1.png # bad economics: bad trade policy each of trump's tariffs increased import prices by between 5% and 25%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571381550395031571/unknown.png Overall, using standard economic methods, we find that the full incidence of the tariff falls on domestic consumers, with a reduction in U.S. real income of $1.4 billion per month by the end of 2018. We also see similar patterns for foreign countries who have retaliated against the U.S., which indicates that the trade war also reduced real income for other countries. # bad leadersihp: high cabinet turnover trump's turnover is higher than previous administrations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729056681824354304/unknown.png # corruption about $16 million from the Trump campaign, other Republican campaigns, and the federal government have been spent on Trump properties: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634208378817609748/unknown.png about $16 million from the Trump campaign, other Republican campaigns, and the federal government have been spent on Trump properties: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634207497414246411/unknown.png # lies **Trump claimed 'little Dem support' for opioid bill all Dems voted for:** Trump quote: "And I'll soon sign into the law the largest legislative effort in history to address the opioid crisis where just this year we got $6 billion from Congress -- thanks to Rob Portman and a lot of others -- thank you, Rob -- but Rob and so many others helped. Very little Democrat support." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjT1fB0N_CY&feature=youtu.be&t=2493 House vote: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/509368336665149440/unknown.png Senate vote: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/509368239688515596/unknown.png **Trump claims he signed first military pay raise in 10 years; military pay has been raised every year since 1983: **: Trump quote: "We just approved $700 billion for our military. So we’re going to be — (applause) — we’re going to be having the best equipment ever known. And next year, $716 billion. So I wanted to let you know. (Applause.) And, by the way, I know you don’t care about this, but that also includes raises for our military. (Applause.) First time in 10 years." https://youtu.be/Zqa54Nd8kBk?t=303 There has been a pay raise every year since 1984: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/509371702413623336/unknown.png Graph: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/509372037026807819/unknown.png **Trump claims last Rep to win Wisconsin was Eisenhower:** Trump quote: "When we won Wisconsin, it hadn't been won by a Republican since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952. Did you know that? And I won Wisconsin. And I like Wisconsin a lot but we won Wisconsin. And Ronald Reagan, remember, Wisconsin was the state that Ronald Reagan did not win. And that was in 1952. And I've gotten to know the people here, and they're incredible." https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1012401634750746624 In reality, post-WW2 Republicans won Wisconsin in 1956 (Eisenhower), 1960 (Nixon), 1968 (Nixon), 1972 (Nixon), 1980 (Reagan), 1984 (Ronald Reagan), and 2016 (Trump): another lie: another lie: # LGBT rights trump loves the gays btw: http://thehill.com/regulation/administration/399482-sessions-announces-religious-liberty-task-force trump rolled back trans policies: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/02/21/trump-administration-change-transgender-student-bathroom-rules/98221368/ # the wall a majority oppose the border wall and have done so since the 90's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542349239133667338/unknown.png Gallup first asked about it in 1993, when 71% said they opposed "erecting a wall along the border with Mexico." Opposition eased slightly in 1995, when 62% were against erecting a wall. In 2006, opposition to "building a wall along the border with Mexico" was 56%. # foreign policy trump is no pacifist: https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/09/donald-trump-is-dropping-bombs-at-unprecedented-levels/ Judging from Trump’s embrace of the use of air power [...] he is the most hawkish president in modern history. Under Trump, the United States has dropped about 20,650 bombs through July 31, or 80 percent the number dropped under Obama for the entirety of 2016. At this rate, Trump will exceed Obama’s last-year total by Labor Day. In Iraq and Syria, data shows that the United States is dropping bombs at unprecedented levels. In July, the coalition to defeat the Islamic State (read: the United States) dropped 4,313 bombs, 77 percent more than it dropped last July. In June, the number was 4,848 — 1,600 more bombs than were dropped in any one month under President Barack Obama since the anti-ISIS campaign started three years ago. In Afghanistan, the number of weapons released has also shot up since Trump took office. April saw more bombs dropped in the country since the height of Obama’s troop surge in 2012. That was also the month that the United States bombed Afghanistan’s Mamand Valley with the largest non-nuclear bomb ever dropped in combat. Vox on Trump in Aghanistan (2017): # self made Trump underperformed the real estate market: """Starting with Trump’s professed net worth of “more than $200 million” in an interview published by The New York Times in November 1976, Griffin says the FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITS Index-compounded return would have returned $23.2 billon at the end of 2015, “considerably above Mr. Trump’s recent self-reported net worth of approximately $10 billion.”""" trump was not self-made -- he inherited about $413 million: about half of Americans acknowledge that Trump was born wealthy: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729380616168276028/unknown.png #####c ##### # 2016 primary #####o # alleged media anti-bernie bias: weak evidence Shorenstein analysis: in the pre-primary (Jan 2015-Dec 2015), Sanders received more-positive coverage than Clinton most of the time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/630737747254181888/unknown.png Shorenstein analysis: in the primary (Jan 2016-June 2016), Sanders received more-positive coverage than Clinton 1/2 of the time and less-positive 1/2 of the time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/630743789107150848/unknown.png opinion polling: Sanders polled around 5% until May 2015 and rose to ~40% by April 2016: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/630741958675136512/unknown.png # berniebros didn't vote for clinton: false only 1 in 10 Sanders voters ended up voting for Trump, comparable to switches for other candidates: Fully 12 percent of people who voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries voted for President Trump in the general election. [....] Schaffner tells NPR that around 12 percent of Republican primary voters (including 34 percent of Ohio Gov. John Kasich voters and 11 percent of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio voters) ended up voting for Clinton. And according to one 2008 study, around 25 percent of Clinton primary voters in that election ended up voting for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in the general. (In addition, the data showed 13 percent of McCain primary voters ended up voting for Obama, and 9 percent of Obama voters ended up voting for McCain — perhaps signaling something that swayed voters between primaries and the general election, or some amount of error in the data, or both.) #####c ##### # biden ukraine israel border taiwan bill 2023 dylan burns #####o # what does biden demand? five categories outlined by Biden for upcoming bill: """Given the destruction created by this war for Ukraine and the world, as well as the risk of catastrophic escalation, we also believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States, and the world to avoid a prolonged conflict. For this reason, we urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire. This is consistent with your recognition that “there’s going to have to be a negotiated settlement here,” and your concern that Vladimir Putin “doesn't have a way out right now, and I'm trying to figure out what we do about that.”""""""We agree with the Administration’s perspective that it is not America’s place to pressure Ukraine’s government regarding sovereign decisions, and with the principle you have enunciated that there should be “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” But as legislators responsible for the expenditure of tens of billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars in military assistance in the conflict, we believe such involvement in this war also creates a responsibility for the United States to seriously explore all possible avenues, including direct engagement with Russia, to reduce harm and support Ukraine in achieving a peaceful settlement.""" # congressional progressive caucus statement # we are sending old weapons, but we're paying to replenish them Congressional Research Service 2023 October 5: $25.93 billion for Presidential Drawdown (cost of replacing existing stocks sent to Ukraine), $18 billion for kraine security Asisstance Initiative (USAI, buying new stocks from military producers), $4.73 billion for Foreign Military Financing (loans and grants to the Ukrainian military): """FY2022 and FY2023 security assistance packages were mostly funded via $48.7 billion in supplemental appropriations. This amount included $25.93 billion to replenish Department of Defense (DOD) equipment stocks sent to Ukraine via presidential drawdown authority; $18 billion for DOD’s Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI; P.L. 114-92, §1250); and $4.73 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF; 22 U.S.C. §2763) for Ukraine and “countries impacted by the situation in Ukraine.” Another $300 million per year was provided for USAI in regular FY2022 and FY2023 appropriations.""" Department of State 2023 October 11: """Pursuant to a delegation by the President, we have used the emergency Presidential Drawdown Authority on 44 occasions since August 2021 to provide Ukraine military assistance totaling approximately $23.8 billion from DoD stockpiles.""" ^ US Department of Defense 2023 March factsheet with explanations of terms: "Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative Procuring defense articles directly from industry to support Ukraine" "Ukraine Presidential Drawdown Replenishment Replacing equipment drawn down from U.S. stocks" ^ US Department of Defense 2022 September 09: """Because so much gear has been pulled from U.S. military units, that equipment must now be replaced in order to sustain America's own readiness, and the Defense Department has already contracted with an array of manufacturers to give back to military units what was taken from them in order to support Ukraine.""" ^ Foreign Military Financing (FMF): """The Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program provides grants and loans to help countries purchase weapons and defense equipment produced in the United States as well as acquiring defense services and military training. FMF funds purchases are made through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program, which manages government-to-government sales. On a much less frequent basis, FMF also funds purchases made through the Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) program, which oversees sales between foreign governments and private U.S. companies. FMF does not provide cash grants to other countries; it generally pays for sales of specific goods or services through FMS or DCS.""" # contracting actions to date (replenishing has already begun) ^ Cancian 2022: realists are mad: """A CSIS study examined the ability of the defense industrial base to replace inventories in an emergency and found that the process would take many years for most items.""""""The United States has provided about $10 billion of equipment from stocks, but only $1.2 billion has been put on contract for replacements. Once contracts are signed, it will still take many years before the replacement equipment arrives at units.""" 2022 September 09: """Congress has appropriated $6 billion in USAI funding in fiscal year 2022 (FY22). The Department has committed $4.8 billion through notifications to Congress and $1.2 billion has been awarded on contract.""" 2023 January 31: """Congress has appropriated $6.3 billion in USAI funding in fiscal year 2022 (FY22) and $12.3B FY23 to date. The Department has committed $7.1 billion through notifications to Congress since FY22 and $2.9 billion has been awarded on contract.""" # russian weapon procurement violates international law : """Kyiv will closely follow the current contacts between the Russian Federation and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, which may focus on sourcing weapons and munitions from the latter, she continued. That would constitute another grave violation by the Kremlin of the relevant Council resolutions, she said, adding that it already happened with the supplies of military drones from Iran. Council resolution 1718 (2006) prohibits Member States from procuring arms and related material from Pyongyang, as well as any items that would enhance the operational capabilities of armed forces of another Member State. Expressing her country’s resolve to continue de-occupying its sovereign territory in order to save as many lives of Ukraine’s soldiers as possible, she insisted that, following its defeat in the war, the Russian Federation should be demilitarized and de-nuclearized to prevent the threat of repeated aggression.""" #####c ##### # federal bureau of investigation fbi ##### # fbi as pro-capitalist Gentry 1991: during the First Red Scare, see senior FBI agent openly admitting that they're the protectors of capital, not the people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1099947499701153822/image.png # fbi and racism Gentry 1991: Hoover opposed early FBI involvement against Southern white hate movements, which he contrasted with the evil communists: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1099968506138726400/image.png Gentry 1991: the FBI under Hoover tolerated -- and paid for medical expenses sustained during -- the vicious beatings conducted by an FBI informant in a KKK chapter: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1099969418462760970/image.png Gentry 1991: Hoover called the Black Panther Party the "greatest threat to internal security of the country" and encouraged violence against them: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1099970783780032542/image.png # fbi tactics Gentry 1991: list of common FBI anti-Communist COINTELPRO tactics under Hoover in the 1950s: plant stories, bad-jacketing people, harassment, informing associates, selective law enforcement, and snitch-jacketing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1099957230188642325/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1099957274925080646/image.png Gentry 1991: during the Palmer raids under Hoover, the FBI blatantly violated the constitutional and human rights of citizens in a mass operation (compare: Soviets) that arrested 10,000 people, of which 6,000 had evidence so flimsy they were released within days: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1099958566233853952/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1099958586156793916/image.png # number of informants Gentry 1991: Communist Party informants scheduled meetings on the same day as the Palmer Raids: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1116469160491360307/image.png Gentry 1991: 1500 member-informants in the CPUSA: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1116462146331623464/image.png Alexander 1991: 300 member-informants in the SWP: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1116465418895376434/image.png Eckstein 2016: dozens of member-informants in the Weathermen: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1116464727044919439/c42f41a2-914e-413c-8bfc-b7a6ff95b6a1.png # second red scare Culver and Hyde 2001: persecution of Henry Wallace supporters in 1948 as "communists": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1165253853948690432/image.png American dreamer: the life and times of Henry A. Wallace #####c ##### # blue states vs red states #####o # federal money: blue states are not "welfare queens" Pew 2021: federal aid as a percent of state budgets tends to be higher in red states than blue states (likely because red states are poorer): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983842615541784616/unknown.png Tierney 2017: red states tend to take more from the federal government than they give (likely because red states are poorer): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/469767203248668672/unknown.png # productivity: blue states not slackers Muro and Liu 2016: Clinton-voting counties made up 64% of the US GDP; Trump-voting counties were just 36%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/488749782354100235/unknown.png # poverty: blue states not poorer Kneebone 2016: from 2000 to 2010-2014, poverty has grown faster in R than D districts; this suggests that Republican policies failed worse at preventing poverty: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641087611984805888/unknown.png Between 2000 and 2010-14, the poor population grew faster in red districts than blue. The number of people living below the poverty line (e.g., $24,230 for a family of four in 2014) in Republican districts climbed by 49 percent between 2000 and 2010-14 compared with a 33 percent increase in Democratic districts. As a result, Republican districts accounted for 60 percent of the increase in the nation’s poor population during that time. At the same time, poverty rates rose by similar margins in both red and blue districts (3.3 and 3.2 percentage points, respectively). #####c ##### # republican opposition to democracy: gerrymandering #####o # causal evidence: republican trifectas harm democracy Grumbach 2022 preprint: differences-in-differences: Rep trifectas causally decrease the Democracy Index, a measure of democratic performance (composed mostly of gerrymandering metrics, composed less of voter disenfranchisement & voting difficulty metrics) by 1 point, which fully explains the difference between Rep and Dem or mixed states: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983851909767127060/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983851841248968765/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983851990205480980/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983852464396730450/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1103921514774020116/image.png Laboratories of Democratic Backsliding """In this article, we use the State Democracy Index to test a set of prominent theories of the causes of democratic expansion and backsliding in the U.S. Drawing on American and comparative democracy literatures, we develop predictions about the drivers of democratic expansion and backsliding. We estimate the effects of political competition, polarization, and racial demographic change on states’ democratic performance. The results suggest that none of these factors is central to dynamics in state democratic performance. Republican control of state government, however, consistently and profoundly reduces state democratic performance during this time period.""" ^ Grumbach 2022: Laboratories of Democratic Backsliding # us house effects on average, Democrats would need to win 54.4% of the vote to win a majority in the US house: in the average election from 2012 to 2016, 59 of 435 seats (14%) would have changed party if percent of votes cast matched the percent of seats won; Democrats unfairly gained 20 seats; Republicans unfairly gained 39 seats; on net, Republicans unfairly gained a 19 of 435 seats (4.4%) partisan advantage: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772570529927790602/VoterDistricts-fig2-693.png gerrymandering clearly benefits republicans in the US House: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/774800355078832128/unknown.png # state house effects AP 2016: AP 2018: # state house examples: republican minority rule in 2018, out of the 99 US state legislatures, 9 had Republicans win a minority of the popular vote and a majority of the seats; no parallel exists for the Democrats: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/772563003635793940/ElmAEpSWoAcdCK5.png # us house examples in 2018 in Ohio, Democratic candidates for the US House received 47% of the votes and 25% of the seats: in 2018 in North Carolina, Democratic candidates for the US House received 48% of the votes and 23% of the seats: in 2018 in Wisconsin, Democratic candidates for the US House received 53% of the votes and 38% of the seats: #####c ##### # republican opposition to democracy: other metrics #####o # rising illiberal rhetoric Lührmann Medzihorsky Lindberg 2021: the Republican Party has adopted increasingly illiberal (anti-pluralist) rhetoric and policy positions; it is closer to the illiberal parties of Orban's Fidesz, Modi's BJP, Erdogan's AKP, or Bolsonaro's PSL: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982108258363908136/unknown.png Lührmann Medzihorsky Lindberg 2021: this results from the fact that the Republican Party's rhetoric and policy positions have shown increasingly lack of commitment to democracy, disrespect of minority rights, demonization of opponents, and encouragement of violence:: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982109180485845005/unknown.png Lührmann Medzihorsky Lindberg 2021: anti-pluralist rhetoric and policy positions strongly correlate with anti-democratic actions; anti-pluralist party rule correlates with a 4.8x higher risk (6% vs 29%) of reduced V-DEM democracy score: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982108490128580649/unknown.png # democratic rhetoric: has moved leftward Chinoy 2019: the Democratic Party's manifesto's rhetoric has moved leftward over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/703324062864244756/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983845043615973438/unknown.png ^ citation for above: Manifesto Project: # relevant scotus cases in 2015, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 to uphold that an independent districting comission was constitutional: in 2014, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 to eliminate key provisions of the Voting Rights Act: # republicans use voter id to disenfranchise their opponents voter ID laws suppress Democratic and liberal votes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/509257600198639626/unknown.png north carolina: # republicans refuse to implement referenda republicans have overturned referenda: pre-emptively overturning ballot referendum in michigan: overturning medicaid expansion in utah: # republicans attempt to reduce incoming Dem governor's powers republicans grabbed power in Michigan: republicans grabbed power in Wisconsin: republicans have grabbed power all over: #####c ##### # capitol hill riots #####o # support in polls Marist: US capitol break-in support: 18% Republicans (7% strongly), 7% Independents (3% strongly), 3% Democrats (1% strongly): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/798274145971732600/capitol-attack-support-1024x675.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/798274424196300811/unknown.png 7 January, n=831, landline and mobile """Trump supporters broke into the U.S. Capitol to disrupt the process of certifying the results of the presidential election that showed Joe Biden won. From what you´ve read or heard, do you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose the actions of the Trump supporters who broke into the U.S. Capitol?""" Ipsos: US capitol break-in support: 15% Republicans, 3% Independents or Other, 1% Democrats: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/798276813842415646/unknown.png 6-7 January, n=536, online YouGov: US capitol stormed: 45% Republicans (29% strongly), 21% Independents (15% strongly), 2% Democrats (1% strongly): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/798275895815045180/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/798295366410960936/unknown.png 6 January, n=1397, online #####c ##### # impeachment #####o white house lied about Ukraine: scrape from this video: read these: read these: # not sure why these are important, but I have them so :shrug: timeline from OMB: "The Office of Management and Budget is pushing back on suggestions that an email requesting the Pentagon withhold military aid to Ukraine 91 minutes after President Trump's phone call with Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky was anything other than procedural." Trump thinks there's something suspicious about the DNC server and Ukraine: """Trump: They have the server, right, from the DNC, Democratic National Committee. The FBI went in and they told them, get out of here, we're not giving it to you. They gave the server to CrowdStrike or whatever it's called, which is a country — which is a company owned by a very wealthy Ukrainian. And I still want to see that server. You know, the FBI's never gotten that server. That's a big part of this whole thing. Why did they give it to a Ukrainian company?""""""Doocy: Are you sure they did that? Are you sure they gave it to Ukraine?""""""Trump: Well, that's what the word is. That's what I asked, actually, in my phone call [referring to his July 25 conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that's the focus of the whistleblower complaint that sparked the impeachment inquiry.] I mean, I asked it very point-blank, because we're looking for corruption. There's tremendous corruption. Why should we be giving hundreds of millions of dollars to countries when there's this kind of corruption?"""" # polls a majority of Americans (52.3% to 42.0%, +10.3%) support the impeachment process: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/665340491696701502/unknown.png a majority of Americans (50.3% to 46.0%, +4.3%) support removing Trump from office: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/665340535443030026/unknown.png watergate reduced public support for Nixon, who had approval ratings in the 50's-70's beforehand: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640985916458008586/unknown.png # substance: constitution article 1 section 2 paragraph 5: "The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers;and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment." article 1 section 3 paragraphs 6-7: "The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present. Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law." article 2 section 4: "The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors." # substance: Kurt Volker [unformatted] Volker testified that he introduced Giuliani to Ukranian leadership: """After sharing my concerns with the Ukrainian leadership, an adviser to Presjdent Zelensky asked me to connect him to the President's personal lawyer, Mayor Rudy Giuliani. I did so. I did so solely because I understood that the new Ukrainian leadershi wanted to convince those, like Mayor Giu1iani, who believed such a negative narrative about Ukraine, that times have changed and that, under Presjdent Zelensky, Ukraine is worthy of U.S. support. I also made clear to the Ukrainians on a number of occasions that Mayor Giuliani is a private citizen and the President's personal lawyer and that he does not represent the United States Government.""" Giuliani in May 2019: """We're not meddling in an election, we're meddling in an investigation, which we have a right to do. There's nothing illegal about it. Somebody could say it's improper. And this isn't foreign policy — I'm asking them to do an investigation that they're doing already and that other people are telling them to stop. And I'm going to give them reasons why they shouldn't stop it because that information will be very, very helpful to my client, and may turn out to be helpful to my government.""" Volker text messages: # substance: Gordon Sondland [unformatted] Sondland donated 1 million dollars to the Trump inauguration: """Gordon Sondland, the chairman of Provenance Hotels and a big supporter of the extended Bush family (including former President George W.), gave $1 million to the inaugural committee through four LLCs: BV-2 LLC, Dunson Cornerstone LLC, Buena Vista Investments LLC, and Dunson Investments LLC. Sondland gave $2,700 to the early favorite to capture the GOP nomination, Jeb Bush, and $22,000 to Bush’s super PAC, Right to Rise, last cycle, but none to Trump.""" Trump claims he "hardly knows" Gordon Sondland: # substance: Fiona Hill Fiona Hill quote: """And Ambassador Sondland, in front of the Ukrainians, as I came in, was talking about how he had an agreement wjth Chief of Staff Mulvaney for a meeting with the Ukrainians if they were going to go forward with investigations. And my director for Ukraine was looking completely alarmed. And I came in again as this discussion was underway. Mr. Danylyuk looked very alarmed as well. He didn't look like he knew what was going on. That wasn't the case with Yermak.""" # substance: Crowdstrike the GOP also used Crowdstrike: # definitions bribery: (b) **Whoever—** (2) **being a public official** or person selected to be a public official, **directly or indirectly, corruptly demands, seeks, receives, accepts, or agrees to receive or accept anything of value personally or for any other person or entity, in return for:** (A) **being influenced in the performance of any official act;** (B)being influenced to commit or aid in committing, or to collude in, or allow, any fraud, or make opportunity for the commission of any fraud, on the United States; or (C) being induced to do or omit to do any act in violation of the official duty of such official or person; SCOTUS ruling on 18 USC 201: # substance: 25 July 2019 phone call: "Memorandum of a Telephone Conversation" Trump talking about Crowdstrike: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/657338441809526827/unknown.png Trump talking about Biden: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/657338756415619092/unknown.png # substance: 21 April 2019 phone call: rough transcript nothing of interest: # procedure: house vote CLAIM: the impeachment inquiry is invalid because the House did not vote to open it: """Your inquiry is constitutionally invalid and a violation of due process. In the history of our Nation, the House of Representatives has never attempted to launch an impeachment inquiry against the President without a majority of the House taking political accountability for that decision by voting to authorize such a dramatic constitutional step.""" reality: the House voted 232-196 for impeachment inquiry: REALITY: House votes aren't necessary for impeachment anyways: """For example, impeachment inquiries into three federal judges in the 1980s began without explicit authorization by the full House, according to the report. While the whole House voted to start impeachment investigations into Mr. Clinton and Mr. Nixon, whether such a vote was taken in Mr. Johnson’s is more ambiguous. In the second attempt to impeach the 17th president, the full House voted on and approved resolutions authorizing the Committee on Reconstruction to begin a general investigation and to obtain the evidence gathered previously by the Judiciary Committee. But those resolutions did not explicitly authorize a second impeachment inquiry. “There’s no requirement in the Constitution that the House do anything specific, in any order, prior to voting to approve articles of impeachment,” said Stephen Vladek, a constitutional law professor at the University of Texas.""" # procedure: judiciary committee CLAIM: impeachments inquiries must be conducted by the House Judiciary committee: """In the 240-plus years of our history, those rare times where we have had impeachment process, it’s always gone through the House Judiciary Committee, because the House Judiciary Committee is the committee of jurisdiction over the Constitution and over impeachment. It’s not the Intelligence Committee.""" REALITY: impeachment inquiries need not be conducted by the House Judiciary committee -- indeed, several impeachments predate the House Judiciary committee: But while impeachment inquiries have been typically conducted by the House Judiciary Committee since its formation in 1813, there is no rule mandating it and there is precedent for other committees taking the lead. Special committees began impeachment inquiries against federal judges in 1804, 1808 and 1839. And in 1867, after the Judiciary Committee voted to not send articles of impeachment against President Andrew Johnson to the full House, a second attempt to impeach him succeeded after an inquiry by the Committee on Reconstruction. # procedure: trial rights CLAIM: the impeachment inquiry was invalid because the President wasn't able to cross-examine witnesses, call witnesses, and otherwise defend himself, as in a trial: """Yet the Committees have decided to deny the President these elementary rights and protections that form the basis of the American justice system and are protected by the Constitution. No citizen - including the President - should be treated this unfairly.""""""To comply with the Constitution's demands, appropriate procedures would include-at a minimum-the right to see all evidence, to present evidence, to call witnesses, to have counsel present at all hearings, to cross-examine all witnesses, to make objections relating to the examination of witnesses or the admissibility of testimony and evidence, and to respond to evidence and testimony. Likewise, the Committees must provide for the disclosure of all evidence favorable to the President and all evidence bearing on the credibility of witnesses called to testify in the inquiry. The Committees' current procedures provide none of these basic constitutional rights.""" REALITY: the House investigates and charges people (which doesn't require these rights), while the Senate tries them (which does): """This argument — which featured prominently in Mr. Cipollone’s letter and has been echoed by other defenders of Mr. Trump — misrepresents the separation of duties in Congress in regards to the impeachment process: The House investigates and charges, and the Senate holds trial. Allowing the subject of an impeachment inquiry to call witnesses or present counterevidence is not required in either the Constitution or House rules. The House Judiciary Committee did hear testimony from the White House counsel at the request of the Clinton administration in 1998 and allowed Mr. Nixon’s defense lawyers to present rebutting evidence in 1974. But no such accommodation was made in Mr. Johnson’s case, who was impeached by the House before it even drew up articles of impeachment.""" REALITY: the Senate's rules make clear that the President can access all of these rights in their Senate trial: eg: """XVII. Witnesses shall be examined by one person on be- 186 half of the party producing them, and then cross-examined by one person on the other side.""" # procedure: secret hearings 1/4 of Republicans (those on Intelligence, Oversight or Foreign Affairs) can attend the hearings, about as many as Democrats -- and 1/4 of the Republicans doing the sit-in against the impeachment inquiry hearing could attend the hearings: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/658039831045341184/unknown.png it was indeed a security issue: # procedure: whistleblower's testimony the whistleblower only gave written testimony -- as has Trump: # goalposts: Lindsey Graham 01 January 1999: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxJoKu13nLU """And we got some guidance as to what really is in or out of bounds for high government officials. What's a high crime? How about if an important person hurts somebody of low means. It's not very scholarly. But I think it's the truth. I think that's what they meant by high crimes. Doesn't even have to be a crime. It's just when you start using your office and you're acting in a way that hurts people. You've committed a high crime.""" 20 October 2019: """Sure. I mean, show me something that, that is a crime. If you could show me that, you know, Trump actually was engaging in a quid pro quo, outside the phone call, that would be very disturbing.""" 25 September 2019: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=385372285721070 #####c ##### # free speech, censorship, and tolerance #####o # intentions free speech is specifically used to defend racist speech, rather than general freedom of speech: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/459735941062328330/unknown.png free speech btw: 43% of Republicans think the President should be able to "close news outlets engaged in bad behavior": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/477693822806130690/unknown.png # left vs right on free speech: polls Pew 2017: a higher portion of conservatives than liberals would not live near or be friends with people with different political views: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640986155122163734/PP-2014-06-12-polarization-0-07.png Political Typology Reveals Deep Fissures on the Right and Left Sachs 2018: youth nowadaysare not more likely to support banning speech: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/446409742508883999/unknown.png There Is No Campus Free Speech Crisis: A Close Look at the Evidence Sachs 2018: students nowadays are just as likely to support the first amendment as in the past: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/446409956602806282/unknown.png There Is No Campus Free Speech Crisis: A Close Look at the Evidence Sachs 2018: students nowadays are just as likely to support free speech as in the past: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/446411062196043777/unknown.png There Is No Campus Free Speech Crisis: A Close Look at the Evidence Sachs 2018: the difference between liberals and conservatives in self-censorship is smaller on-campus than off-campus: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/455969504619659294/unknown.png There Is No Campus Free Speech Crisis: A Close Look at the Evidence Razib Khan: smarter people are more likely to defend free speech of all groups: The less intelligent and uneducated really don’t tolerate unpopular views ^ note: very sus authorize # left vs right on free speech: censorship Sachs 2018: across colleges in the US, liberal faculty are more likely to be fired than conservative faculty: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/446412174999420938/FreeSpeech6.png There Is No Campus Free Speech Crisis: A Close Look at the Evidence # efficacy of censorship / deplatforming: isis Alexander 2017: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1156461350688657448/image.png Digital Decay? Tracing Change Over Time Among English-Language Islamic State Sympathizers on Twitter Berger and Perez 2016: When Twitter repeatedly banned ISIS-related accounts, they lost followers (1st pic) and fewer of their tweets survived available (2nd pic): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1156402674019864576/FSw6tjtXoAElxOr.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1156402705175158804/FSw7LpyWYAMRaA1.png The Islamic State’s Diminishing Returns on Twitter: How suspensions are limiting the social networks of English-speaking ISIS supporters # efficacy of censorship / deplatforming: reddit Chandrasekharan et al 2017: after Reddit banned r/FatPeopleHate and r/C\*\*nTown in 2015, Reddit as a whole saw significant decreases in hate speech overall: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1049243193629216838/unknown.png You Can't Stay Here: The Efficacy of Reddit's 2015 Ban Examined Through Hate Speech #####c ##### # kavanaugh #####o # william pryor 2004: Kavanaugh claimed that the nomination of judge William Pryor was "not one that I worked on personally". Transcript: Video: https://twitter.com/SenatorLeahy/status/1037788199463084033 Emails show Kavanaugh was involved in selecting, interviewing, and confirming Pryor: Kavanaugh was included (at least initially) in the "Pryor Working Group Contact List": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641997823411486721/Dmb2jzGX0AEyF4W.png 11 December 2002: Kavanaugh asked Adam Charnes to speak with Pryor about nominating him to CA11: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641997891745087509/Dmb2k09XoAEBd0p.png 16 December 2002: Kavanaugh received an email from another White House aide Kyle Sampson with subject line "CA11" (ie, the 11th Circuit) that asked "How did the Pryor interview go?" Kavanaugh responded: "Call me." https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641997954017656832/DmbI6ScWsAAc39_.png 05 June 2003: Kavanaugh was included on an email chain with a handful of other officials about a 4 p.m. conference call to "discuss Pryor and coordinate plans and efforts": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641998016013664305/Dmb2jzGX0AEyF4W.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641998029997735956/DmbLO4YW4AYOOX2.png 05 June 2003: Kavanaugh was included on an email about a meeting tomorrow to "discuss nominee Bill Pryor’s hearing" on next Wednesday: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641998029997735956/DmbLO4YW4AYOOX2.png # remirez discussions Kavanaugh testified that he never "discussed or heard discussion" about the Deborah Ramirez incident before the 23 September 2018 New Yorker article: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/497832906304126986/unknown.png Kavanaugh associate testifies that Kavanaugh may have participated in pre-emptive PR meetings before the incident became public: Berchem says in her memo that Kavanaugh "and/or" his friends "may have initiated an anticipatory narrative" as early as July to "conceal or discredit" Ramirez. Yarasavage said that she corresponded with "Brett’s guy". Yarasavage said that she sent a copy of a photo from a 1997 wedding attended by Kavanaugh and Ramirez "to Brett’s team" in order to show himself smiling alongside Ramirez 10 years after they graduated. # extreme Garland is a left-centrist: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641998436861870116/Figrue-1.png Kavanaugh is a rightist: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640986731658608660/atd-roeder-trump-final-three-0924.png Kavanaugh is a rightist: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640986745810190337/atd-roeder-trump-final-three.png #####c ##### # drone strikes as a method of war #####o # drone strikes: civilian death rate BIJ: my graph of death rate per strike, comparison btwn drone and "other" (virtually all manned airplane airstrikes): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/736329920589987850/unknown.png # drone strikes: civilian death rate (published graphs) drone strikes in Pakistan have a low civilian death rate (Bureau of Investigative Journalism, New America Foundation): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635315613664935936/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640987066003488828/unknown.png drone strikes in Pakistan have a low civilian death rate (New American Foundation, Long War Journal, University of Massachusetts DRONE databses): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635313246492033034/unknown.png average 21.37% in 2008, 15.00% in 2009, 2.74% in 2010, 5.68% in 2011 data from press accounts of drone strike deaths, 2004-2010, shows 32% civilian death rate (New America Foundation): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635319647456985088/unknown.png Our study shows that the 114 reported drone strikes in northwest Pakistan from 2004 to the present have killed between 830 and 1,210 individuals, of whom around 550 to 850 were described as militants in reliable press accounts, about two-thirds of the total on average. Thus, the true civilian fatality rate since 2004 according to our analysis is approximately 32 percent. Averaging the press reports in 2009 indicates that 502 people were killed, 382 of whom were described as militants, for an average civilian fatality rate of 24 percent. drone strike data is highly unreliable: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635318413417250817/unknown.png # drone strikes: anti-terrorism efficacy drone strikes in Pakistan have a positive correlation with terrorism within a week and a negative correlation with terrorism after the first week: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635326283735367690/ify011f1.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169784975382564984/image.png """We find that there is little significant impact of drone strikes on Taliban attacks in Afghanistan but that there is a significant impact of drone strikes on Taliban attacks in Pakistan. This impact varies from a positive vengeance effect in the first week following a drone strike to a negative deterrent/incapacitation effect in the second week following a drone strike, when we examine the incidence of terrorist attacks by the Taliban.""""""We find that a terrorist attack in Pakistan is 17.7% less likely to occur 3 days after a successful drone strike. At the same time we find that a terrorist attack is 9.7 and 7.5% more likely to occur five and 6 days after an unsuccessful drone strike, and that a terrorist attack is 7.5 and 8.7% less likely to occur 12 and 13 days after an unsuccessful drone strike. There are 0.283 fewer terrorist attacks in Pakistan 15 days after a successful drone strike, 0.099 more terrorist attacks in Pakistan 6 days after an unsuccessful drone strike, and 0.121 fewer terrorist attacks in Pakistan 12 days after an unsuccessful drone strike (all else constant). These effects are statistically significant. Because all of the statistically significant coefficients on successful drone strikes are negative, it appears that there is an incapacitation effect of the Taliban due to a lost militant leader.""" #####c ##### # southern strategy / southern party switch from dem to gop #####o # todo excellent sources todo: # 1965 civil rights act vote in both the former USA and former CSA, Democrats were more likely to support the 1965 civil rights act: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/567761561611927595/unknown.png ^ historian's summary of above point: # representation since 1965, white Republican representatives dominated Southern GOP representation -- while Democratic representatives became increasingly nonwhite: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/567757885493346305/20130824_FBC260_4.png # south switch dem to rep Bump 2017: since 1942, the Deep South shifted dramatically more Republican (from +60% Democrat to +20% Republican): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867497626169901086/imrs.png Bump 2017: since the 1940's, the Deep South's representation in Congress systematically trended towards conservatism, according to VoteView data: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867497608671002634/imrs.png # black switch dem to rep Bump 2015: between 1936 and 1972, the Black Democratic vote increased from 70% to 90%; the white vote and especially the Deep South vote declined: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/501115761356701706/imrs.png # quotes MLK on Goldwater and the rising racism of the GOP: """On the urgent issue of civil rights, Senator Goldwater represented a philosophy that was morally indefensible and socially suicidal. While not himself a racist, Mr. Goldwater articulated a philosophy which gave aid and comfort to the racist. His candidacy and philosophy would serve as an umbrella under which extremists of all stripes would stand.""" RNC Chairman Michael Steele: """For the last 40-plus years we had a "Southern strategy" that alienated many minority voters by focusing on the white male vote in the South. Well, guess what happened in 1992, folks, "Bubba" went back home to the Democratic Party and voted for Bill Clinton.""" Nixon political strategist Kevin Phillips: """From now on, the Republicans are never going to get more than 10 to 20 percent of the Negro vote and they don't need any more than that... but Republicans would be shortsighted if they weakened enforcement of the Voting Rights Act. The more Negroes who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans. That's where the votes are. Without that prodding from the blacks, the whites will backslide into their old comfortable arrangement with the local Democrats.""" Reagan and Bush I strategist Lee Atwater: """You start out in 1954 by saying, "N****r, n****r, n****r." By 1968 you can't say "n****r" — that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states' rights and all that stuff. You're getting so abstract now [that] you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites. And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I'm not saying that. But I'm saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me — because obviously sitting around saying, "We want to cut this," is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than "n****r, n****r."""" #####c ##### # confederacy #####o # lost cause slaveowners were highly overrepresented in Lee's army: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566020926580457483/unknown.png # polling confederacy: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566022499138273291/support-for-actions.png causes of civil war: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566022558609309696/beliefs-about-causes-of-civil-war.png #####c #####c ##### # # civil war in syria and assad # #####o ##### # assad is not a democratic leader #####o # nondemocratic: sham 2007 presidential the 2007 Syrian election was a referendum, not an election -- Assad had no opponents: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/633316037126914078/unknown.png this is roughly comparable to the "elections" of the Italian fascist party: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/633316324734533654/unknown.png # nondemocratic: sham 2014 presidential the 2014 Syrian election results summaries were accurate *to the voter*, suggesting the results were arrived at first, then the number of voters who voted for each candidate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/633316768634503171/unknown.png Andrew Gelman suggested that the results could be fabricated based on the unlikely accurate numbers.[48] For example, 10,319,723/11,634,412 = 0.886999962, so the 88.7% number for Bashar al-Assad is correct to the nearest single voter. Similarly, the proportion for NIACS comes out at 0.042999938 and for the Independent party at 0.031999985. But whilst Gelman's argument provides evidence that the published counts were fabricated, he admits that it does not preclude the theory that those numbers could have been generated retrospectively (and unprofessionally) from valid percentages. The proportion reported for turnout, 0.734237287, does not exhibit the unusual property found in the vote counts. # nondemocratic: sham parliamentary elections 2007: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/633322192226091018/unknown.png 2012: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/633322226355011594/unknown.png 2016: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/633322260241055754/unknown.png ##### # assad is not a socialist leader #####o # not socialist: assad literally dropped socialism from the constitution 1973 constitution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/633319833785597963/unknown.png 2012 constitution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/633319858695700490/unknown.png ##### # assad's military did war crimes #####o # war crimes: civilian deaths Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (pro-opposition group): from 2011 March 15 to 2021 May 30, the Syrian regime ruled by Assad killed 130254 civilians, or 81.5% = 130254/159774 of all civilian deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/946943978123718676/unknown.png Assad: 56358+26408+47488=130254 ^ wiki: Syrian Network for Human Rights (pro-opposition group): from March 2011 to June 2021, the Syrian regime ruled by Assad killed 200117 civilians, or 87.9% = 200117/227781 of all civilian deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/878531198287249468/O210519EG1.png ^ wiki: Violence Documentation Center in Syria 2020 (pro-opposition group): from March 2011 to September 2020, the Syrian regime ruled by Assad killed 110779 civilians, or 82.0% = 110779/135163 of all civilian deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/878532490837491722/unknown.png 135163 = 110779+3089+6860+2772+218+4930+4802+643+1070 ^ wiki: # war crimes: confirmed and unconfirmed chemical attacks * TLDR: Confirmed: 2013 Khan al-Assal (Syrian government), 2013 Ghouta (Syrian government) Syrian government: 19 March 2013 Khan al-Assal: UN found sufficient evidence for sarin use (numerous eyewitness reports) but could not obtain environmental or blood samples and could not evaluate munitions: Due to the deteriorating security situation, the United Nations Mission was not able to conduct an on-site visit to Khan Al Asal and therefore was not in a position to collect primary evidence relating to the number or type of munitions and/or delivery system that was used in the incident. [....] Due to the deteriorating security situation, the United Nations Mission was not able to conduct an on-site visit to Khan Al Asal and therefore was not in a position to collect environmental samples. In addition, six months following the incident, the probative value of such samples would be negligible. The Russian Federation presented the United Nations Mission with its own report relying on environmental samples collected by a Russian investigation team, which found remainders of Sarin. The United Nations Mission studied the report but could not independently verify the chain of custody for the sampling and the transport of the samples. [....] The United Nations Mission applied the standards for epidemiologic determination of cause-and-effect and assessed that an organophosphorous intoxication was the cause of the rapidly onsetting mass intoxication taking place on the morning of the 19 March 2013. Based on its interviews and the assessment of the medical records obtained from five hospitals receiving the alleged victims, the United Nations Mission did not determine any alternative explanations for the symptoms. Unknown: 13 April 2013 Sheikh Maqsood: UN could not obtain environmental or blood samples: The United Nations Mission sought to conduct fact-finding activities pertaining to this incident from the territory of a bordering country, having determined that such an investigation held the prospect of producing additional information. The United Nations Mission was ultimately unable to obtain any such information. Unknown: 29 April 2013 Saraqueb: UN could not obtain environmental or blood samples: The United Nations Mission was not able to conduct an on-site visit and therefore was not able to collect any environmental samples. The French Government presented a report containing results of environmental samples testing positive for Sarin. The United Nations Mission studied the report but could not independently verify the chain of custody for the sampling and the transport of the samples. Syrian government: 21 August 2013 Ghouta: UN found sufficient evidence for sarin use (environmental samples 2x, blood samples, eyewitness reports) from surface-to-surface rockets with sufficient quality that the perpetrator must have had access to the Syrian military's chemical weapons stockpile: [O]n 21 August 2013, chemical weapons have been used in the ongoing conflict between the parties in the Syrian Arab Republic, also against civilians, including children, on a relatively large scale. In particular, the environmental, chemical and medical samples we have collected provide clear and convincing evidence that surface-to-surface rockets containing the nerve agent Sarin were used in Ein Tarma, Moadamiyah and Zamalka in the Ghouta area of Damascus. [....] Close to the rocket impact sites, in the area where patients were affected, the environment was found to be contaminated by Sarin. The final laboratory results on environmental samples from Ghouta (Moadamiyah and Zamalka) are published below (see table 5.1). The results further support the conclusion of the earlier report (A/67/997-S/2013/553), improving the consistency between the results of the two laboratories. The evidence available concerning the nature, quality and quantity of the agents used on 21 August indicated that the perpetrators likely had access to the chemical weapons stockpile of the Syrian military, as well as the expertise and equipment necessary to manipulate safely large amount of chemical agents. Concerning the incident in Khan Al-Assal on 19 March, the chemical agents used in that attack bore the same unique hallmarks as those used in Al-Ghouta. Not chemical weapons: 22 August 2013 Bahhariyeh: UN found sufficient evidence against chemical weapon use (blood samples): The United Nations Mission was not able to conduct an on-site visit and was therefore not able to collect any environmental samples. [....] Blood and urine samples were collected from the most severely intoxicated patients. The analysis results tested negative for any of the chemical warfare agents. Unknown: 24 August 2013 Jobar: UN found sufficient evidence for sarin use (blood samples x2, eyewitness reports) but could not evaluate munitions: While the United Nations Mission visited the site, it found the site to have been corrupted by mine-clearing activities. As such, there was no probative value in collecting samples. The Syrian Government allegedly recovered soil samples from the impact site that tested positive for Sarin. The United Nations Mission could not verify the chain of custody for this sampling and subsequent analysis. [....] The United Nations Mission was given four samples reportedly withdrawn by the Syrian Government on 24 August 2013 upon the victims’ arrival to the hospital, which were all positive for Sarin exposure. The United Nations Mission collected four blood samples on 28 September 2013, one of which tested positive for Sarin exposure. All samples were subjected to DNA testing to confirm the origin of the presented whole blood samples. The analyses confirmed that the four samples provided by the Syrian Government matched those of the four alleged victims interviewed and sampled. The medical records received from Martyr Yusuf Al Azmah Military Hospital provided corroborating evidence of cholinesterase inhibition indicating Sarin exposure in two of the four patients. Unknown: 25 August 2013 Ashrafiah Sahnaya: UN found sufficient evidence for sarin use (blood samples x2) but could not evaluate munitions: The United Nations Mission did not visit the site of the alleged incident and was therefore not in a position to collect primary information concerning the munitions. According to witnesses, a catapult allegedly threw unidentified objects aiming at the military checkpoint. [....] The United Nations Mission did not visit the site of the alleged incident and was therefore not in a position to collect environmental samples. [....] On 29 September 2013, the United Nations Mission was given five samples allegedly drawn by the Syrian Government on 25 August 2013 upon the arrival of the patients at the hospital. The United Nations Mission drew its own blood samples on 26 and 28 September 2013. 107. All samples were subjected to DNA testing to confirm the origin of the presented whole blood samples. The analyses confirmed that the samples provided by the Syrian Government matched those of the alleged victims interviewed and sampled. The five blood samples drawn on 25 August 2013 all tested positive for Sarin exposure, whereas those drawn on 26 and 28 September tested negative. #####c ##### # rojava or dfns is pretty good #####o # human rights: pretty good, several war-related major failings UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria 2017: claims of ethnic cleansing by Rojava / DFNS are false, but displaced people face significant hunger, thirst, and homelessness: """The Commission notes in its report that mass numbers of people were displaced during SDF offensives to oust ISIS from Manbij city in the summer of 2016 and Tishreen Dam in December 2015 and that some continue to remain unable to return to their homes, “living under dire humanitarian conditions.” However, “the presence of concealed bombs laid by ISIL justifies ordering the temporary displacement of civilians,” the Commission stated, using an alternate acronym for ISIS. While the displacement was justified, the Commission noted that the SDF and YPG failed to provide adequate assistance to the displaced families in the form of basics like shelter, food, and health care.""" from 2014-2017, the most that Amnesty International could allege against Rojava (a state of 6 million in a 4-year war against ISIS, Syria, and Turkey) are: one forced population movement, one unjustified bulldozing of a village, several unjustified arrests of journalists, and incomplete due process in the courts: # internal structure discussion of the structures of communes in Rojava: # criminal justice: fairly progressive Rojava has a very low reported incarceration rate: """A new criminal justice approach was implemented that emphasizes restoration over retribution.[134] The death penalty was abolished.[135] Prisons house mostly people charged with terrorist activity related to ISIL and other extremist groups.[136] A **September 2015 report of Amnesty International noted that 400 people were incarcerated[137] of a population of 4.6 million, or 8.7 people per 100,000, compared to 60.0 people per 100,000 in Syria as a whole, and the second lowest rate in the world after San Marino.[3][138]** However, the report also noted some deficiencies in due process.[137]""" # lgbt rights: unclear, need stronger evidence article discussing strengths of lgbt rights in Rojava: article discussing strengths of lgbt rights in Rojava: article discussing strengths of lgbt rights in Rojava: article discussing weaknesses of lgbt rights in Rojava: article discussing weaknesses of lgbt rights in Rojava: article discussing weaknesses of lgbt rights in Rojava: #####c #####c ##### # # afghanistan war of 2001-2023 # #####o ##### # human rights under taliban #####o UNAMA 2022: summary executions of ethnic and religious minorities continued under the Taliban, alongside the massive and total reduction of human rights of women: #####c ##### # civilian death #####o # Brown University Cost of War Crawford 2016: graph of civilians killed, by perpetrator, from 2001 to 2015; of known deaths, 17120 (77.8%) killed by anti-government forces (mostly Taliban), 4887 (22.2%) killed by pro-government forces (mostly US): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1179928428342947910/image.png Update on the Human Costs of War for Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001 to mid-2016 # un reports UNAMA 2021: graph of civilian injuries and fatalities (casualties) from 2009 to 2021; graph indicating perpetrator of killings in 2021; 25% of killings were by pro-government forces, 39% by Taliban, 9% by ISIS, and 16% by unidentified anti-government forces: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1179930250046623814/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1179930938709397535/image.png Afghanistan Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict Midyear Update: 1 January to 30 June 2021 UN index: #####c ##### # surveys of afghans #####o # list of surveys from the asia foundation The Asia Foundation 2015: Afghanistan in 2015: A Survey of the Afghan People The Asia Foundation 2016: Afghanistan in 2016: A Survey of the Afghan People The Asia Foundation 2017: Afghanistan in 2017: A Survey of the Afghan People The Asia Foundation 2018: Afghanistan in 2018: A Survey of the Afghan People The Asia Foundation 2019: Afghanistan in 2019: A Survey of the Afghan People The Asia Foundation 2020: AFGHANISTAN FLASH SURVEYS ON PERCEPTIONS OF PEACE, COVID–19, AND THE ECONOMY: WAVE 1 FINDINGS ^ no details on withdrawal or sympathies 2020 and 2021 survey not public yet: 2004-2014 compiled here: ^ note: The Asia Foundation was funded by the CIA from at least 1951 to 1966 and remains overtly funded by the United States government: # surveys from iwps IWPS 2020: among Afghans, 46% say the US and NATO should withdraw after a peace deal, 21% say it should partially withdraw, and 33% say it should not withdraw: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1179916596559499394/image.png The Afghan People's Peace Perception Survey 2020 # surveys from acsor note: ACSOR conducted ACSOR 2015: most Afghans blame the Taliban for violence, not the United States: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1179917744523714620/image.png """Despite the country’s travails, eight in 10 say it was a good thing for the United States to oust the Taliban in 2001. And many more blame either the Taliban or al Qaeda for the country’s violence, 53 percent, than blame the United States, 12 percent. The latter is about half what it was in 2012, coinciding with a sharp reduction in the U.S. deployment. [....] The Taliban are vastly unpopular; just 4 percent prefer the group to the current government. Yet tolerance, while still comparatively slight, has risen; 21 percent now say they support the presence of Taliban fighters in Afghanistan, double the number who said so in 2010. And still more, 31 percent, say they support the presence of foreign jihadi fighters, up by 14 points in the same time period. [....] Also comparing to 2010, perceived security from the Taliban and other armed groups is up by 15 points; while the reasons aren’t entirely clear, this may reflect a changed dynamic as ISAF forces have withdrawn and the Taliban have consolidated their hold on some areas. Indeed, reported security from the Taliban has increased especially sharply in some of the areas where they’ve gained greater control, the East and South Central regions. Those results compare with a much broader 77 percent support for the presence of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, also up from 2010, by 15 points. Taken together, the trend lines indicate that, perhaps understandably, some Afghans’ priority may not be whose flag flies over their village, but the extent of security they feel.""" ^ ACSOR has received funding from USAID, The Asia Foundation [CIA ties], and the AAPOR # surveys from gallup On wellbeing: On war: # support for US involvement: middling The Asia Foundation 2019: 77-86% of Afghans think the ANA (Afghan National Army) needs foreign support; 73-84% think the ANP (Afghan National Police) needs foreign support: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1179913837697323008/image.png Afghanistan in 2019: A Survey of the Afghan People """PERCEPTION THAT THE ANA AND ANP NEED FOREIGN SUPPORT 77 78 83 86 86 85 83 75 73 80 82 84 82 81 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ANA ANP FIG. 2.7: Q-23. Now, please tell me if you think that the following need foreign support to do their job properly at the moment. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree? (a) ANA. (b) ANP. (Percent who somewhat or strongly agree.)""" #####c #####c ##### # # iraq wars # #####o ##### # lies used to support first american invasion of iraq / gulf war #####o # background key astroturfing organization: Citizens for a Free Kuwait: # premature babies ripped from incubators: Nayirah testimony fraud timeline and background: the "Nayirah testimony" 1990 October 9: George Bush repeated the claim, originally pushed by a bevy of pro-Kuwait sources, that babies had been ripped from incubators: """And I am very much concerned, not just about the physical dismantling but of the brutality that has now been written on by Amnesty International confirming some of the tales told us by the Amir of brutality. It's just unbelievable, some of the things at least he reflected. I mean, people on a dialysis machine cut off, the machine sent to Baghdad; babies in incubators heaved out of the incubators and the incubators themselves sent to Baghdad. Now, I don't know how many of these tales can be authenticated, but I do know that when the Amir was here he was speaking from the heart. And after that came Amnesty International, who were debriefing many of the people at the border. And it's sickening.""" 1990 October 10: a 15yo girl identified as Nayirah, now known to be Nayirah Al-Sabah, daughter of Saud Al-Sabah (the Kuwaiti ambassador to the United States), spoke to Congress and claimed to be a nurse who had seen Iraqi soldiers had ripped babies from incubators: """I saw the Iraqi soldiers come into the hospital with guns, and go into the room where 15 babies were in incubators. They took the babies out of the incubators, took the incubators and left the babies on the cold floor to die.""" Following the liberation of Kuwait, reporters were given access to the country. An ABC report found that "patients, including premature babies, did die, when many of Kuwait's nurses and doctors ... fled" but Iraqi troops "almost certainly had not stolen hospital incubators and left hundreds of Kuwaiti babies to die." # Amnesty International's role in supporting the babies in incubators story summary: Amnesty International initially corroborated Nayirah's story in 1990 and provided testimony from evacuees on the supposed killings that suggested an even *greater* number of babies killed. It wasn't until January 1991 that the organization expressed revulsion at the use of their work to support the war. 19 December 1990: Amnesty International published a report claiming that not just 15 but "300 premature babies" died "after Iraqi soldiers removed them from incubators, which were then looted": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/791830983233896448/1052512956816031744/image.png Although this testimony was a great shock to the American people, it did not succeed in convincing them of the need to intervene in Iraq. The turning point for public opinion was the 82-page report that Amnesty International issued on December 19, 1990. In the report, the human rights watchdog not only confirmed Nayirah’s testimony, but claimed that Iraqi soldiers took 312 Kuwaiti infants out of their incubators and killed them. ^ skeptical coverage of the above report, in 2003, by Democracy Now's Amy Goodman: """On December 19, 1990, Amnesty International published an 84-page report on human rights violations in occupied Kuwait. The report stated that, “300 premature babies were reported to have died after Iraqi soldiers removed them from incubators, which were then looted.” This allegation, which was widely reported by the global media, became one of the most often cited justifications for the 1991 Gulf War. On January 9 1991, President George HW Bush cited Amnesty’s report in a letter sent to campus newspapers across the country. In the Senate, six senators specifically cited the story in their speeches supporting the resolution to give Bush authorization to use American forces in Kuwait. That vote ultimately passed by a mere half-dozen votes.""" 28 January 1991: Amnesty International's executive director John Healey emphasized that their reports before Iraq invaded Kuwait were ignored, and accused George HW Bush's administration of "opportunistic manipulation of the international human rights movement" by using Amnesty's report in his letter justifying the invasion: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1052428114136928378/image.png *The Heights*, "Amnesty responds to President Bush", """Clear facts. Black and white. Unambiguous choice. These are the terms President Bush used in the letter he sent to over 450 college and university newspapers last week. The subject was Iraqi occupation of Kuwait. The objective was to prepare young people for military confrontation in thePersian Gulf. The letter cited Amnesty International's recent report on Iraq as evidence to support the administration's position. Perhaps presidential advisers know that Amnesty volunteer groups are now active on more than 2,600 campuses in this country. I hope the administration will soon learn that Amnesty members and other student activists cannot be misled by opportunistic manipulation of the international human rights movement. Amnesty published its report on the Iraqi Government's gross human rights violations for one purpose: to advance the protection of human rights.""" Regan 2002: """It's wasn't an easy sell. After all, Kuwait was hardly a "freedom-loving land." Only a few weeks before the invasion, Amnesty International accused the Kuwaiti government of jailing dozens of dissidents and torturing them without trial. In an effort to spruce up the Kuwait image, the company organized Kuwait Information Day on 20 college campuses, a national day of prayer for Kuwait, distributed thousands of "Free Kuwait" bumper stickers, and other similar traditional PR ventures. But none of it was working very well. American public support remained lukewarm the first two months.""" # no Iraqi army buildup on Saudi border: satellite photos disprove 1990 September 11: George HW Bush, speaking to Congress, claimed that Iraq poured >100,000 troops and >800 tanks into Kuwait, then threatened the Saudi Arabia border: """We gather tonight, witness to events in the Persian Gulf as significant as they are tragic. In the early morning hours of August 2nd, following negotiations and promises by Iraq's dictator Saddam Hussein not to use force, a powerful Iraqi army invaded its trusting and much weaker neighbor, Kuwait. Within 3 days, 120,000 Iraqi troops with 850 tanks had poured into Kuwait and moved south to threaten Saudi Arabia. It was then that I decided to act to check that aggression.""" 6 January 1991: Jean Heller and the St. Petersburg Times purchased photos from Soyuz-Karta of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia that show no evidence whatsoever of extensive Iraqi military buildup on or near the Saudi Arabia border: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/791830983233896448/1052513685110800394/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1052424500874055692/image.png """Soviet satellite photos of Kuwait taken five weeks after the Iraqi invasion suggest the Bush administration might have exaggerated the scope of Iraq's military threat to Saudi Arabia at the time. The photos are not conclusive proof that the administration overestimated Iraq's buildup along the Saudi border, a buildup that was cited as a justification for the deployment of U.S. troops. But two American satellite imaging experts who examined the photos could find no evidence of a massive Iraqi presence in Kuwait in September.""""""The Times informed the Defense Department of the results of the photo analysis last week and asked to see evidence that would support the official U.S. estimate of the Iraqi buildup. Spokesman Bob Hall turned down the request.""""""While Iraqi troops cannot be seen, it is easy to spot the extensive American military presence at the Dhahran Airport in Saudi Arabia. "We could see five C-141s, one C-5A and four smaller transport aircraft, probably C-130s," said Zimmerman. "There is also a long line of fighters, F-111s or F-15s, on the ground. In the middle of the airfield are what could be camouflaged staging areas. "We didn't find anything of that sort anywhere in Kuwait. We don't see any tent cities, we don't see congregations of tanks, we don't see troop concentrations, and the main Kuwaiti air base appears deserted. It's five weeks after the invasion, and from what we can see, the Iraqi air force hasn't flown a single fighter to the most strategic air base in Kuwait.""" 1991 September 15: Zimmerman (the analyst cited above) reasserts his claims, against some pitiful refutations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/791830983233896448/1052514098031624212/image.png #####c ##### # lies used to support second american invasion of iraq / iraq war #####o # iraq war was illegal TODO that jstor # 9/11 and the axis of evil George Bush, 29 January 2002, includes Iraq in the axis of evil that will export terror like 9/11: **Our second goal is to prevent regimes that sponsor terror from threatening America or our friends and allies with weapons of mass destruction. Some of these regimes have been pretty quiet since September the 11th, but we know their true nature.** North Korea is a regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction, while starving its citizens. Iran aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror, while an unelected few repress the Iranian people's hope for freedom. **Iraq continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror. The Iraqi regime has plotted to develop anthrax and nerve gas and nuclear weapons for over a decade. This is a regime that has already used poison gas to murder thousands of its own citizens, leaving the bodies of mothers huddled over their dead children. This is a regime that agreed to international inspections, then kicked out the inspectors. This is a regime that has something to hide from the civilized world.** States like these and their terrorist allies constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. They could provide these arms to terrorists, giving them the means to match their hatred. They could attack our allies or attempt to blackmail the United States. In any of these cases, the price of indifference would be catastrophic. George Bush, 07 October 2002, alleges Iraq could harbor Al-Qaeda in the future: We know that Iraq and the al Qaeda terrorist network share a common enemy -- the United States of America. We know that Iraq and al Qaeda have had high-level contacts that go back a decade. Some al Qaeda leaders who fled Afghanistan went to Iraq. These include one very senior al Qaeda leader who received medical treatment in Baghdad this year, and who has been associated with planning for chemical and biological attacks. We've learned that Iraq has trained al Qaeda members in bomb-making and poisons and deadly gases. And we know that after September the 11th, Saddam Hussein's regime gleefully celebrated the terrorist attacks on America. Iraq could decide on any given day to provide a biological or chemical weapon to a terrorist group or individual terrorists. Alliance with terrorists could allow the Iraqi regime to attack America without leaving any fingerprints. Some have argued that confronting the threat from Iraq could detract from the war against terror. To the contrary; confronting the threat posed by Iraq is crucial to winning the war on terror. When I spoke to Congress more than a year ago, I said that those who harbor terrorists are as guilty as the terrorists themselves. Saddam Hussein is harboring terrorists and the instruments of terror, the instruments of mass death and destruction. And he cannot be trusted. The risk is simply too great that he will use them, or provide them to a terror network. relevant quotes from Senate Reports Nos. 330-331: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/453705181608017920/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/453705204542734376/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/453705227443634177/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/453705240349245440/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/453705251099508747/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/453705263711518722/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640990409530671125/Screen_Shot_2018-04-01_at_8.png #####c ##### # sanctions death toll: fabricated #####o # timeline background: the OFFP program was administered by the Hussein gov't in south and central Iraq and by the UN in the northern Iraq (the semi-autonomous Kurdish territory): 1990 August 06: total sanctions against Iraq began 1991 April: sanctions modified to exclude foodstuffs from sanctions 1996: sanctions modified to include an Oil For Food Programme (OFFP) 1996-2003: sanctions increasingly ignored 2003 May 22: sanctions were lifted (1 month after the successful US invasion) # us failure: child mortality remains high and did not decrease after invasion Hossain et al 2021: Iraq continues to have child mortality rates in excess of its neighbords; the reasons are explored: OWID: Iraq and regional child mortality rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/957469031567347762/unknown.png World Bank: Iraq and regional child mortality rates: # fabricated evidence: sanctions death toll was faked Dyson and Cetorelli 2017: all three other other retrospective birth order study failed to replicate the findings of a massive spike in child mortality seen in the 1999 UNICEF survey: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/712662222882472027/unknown.png ^ authors of the above study: Tim Dyson, demographer of India, unclear political leanings: Valeria Cetorelli, UN demographer specialized in refugees and famine, unclear political leanings: ^ very shitty critique of the above study: "UNICEF staff – fully responsible for the research methodology, the data analysis, and the resulting conclusions – conducted the research with professionalism and without hidden agenda": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/957473089984266271/unknown.png Spagat 2010: same points as above, plus a critique of the 1995 FAO-NRI survey: "The evidence suggests that this claim should now take up its rightful place in the historical record next to Iraq’s mythical weapons of mass destruction": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/957484829526605894/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/957484879073931354/unknown.png ^ author of above study: Michael Spagat, expert in war deaths, unclear political leanings: Ali et al 2003: the 1999 Iraq Child and Maternal Mortality Survey was conducted by two different authorities: the survey showed no spike after sanctions in northern Iraq, the semi-autonomous Kurdish territory (where the survey was conducted by UNICEF alone), with a medium spike during the 1991 Iraqi Civil War); the survey showed a massive spike in south & central Iraq (where the survey was conducted in cooperation between UNICEF and the Hussein gov't): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/712669576155889754/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # iran nuclear deal: good # #####o ##### # background: iran nuclear deal goals #####o # iran deal: jcpoa goals stockpiles reduction: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641998575118843915/IRAN_DEAL_chart_1.png enrichment reduction: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641998594861301760/IRAN_DEAL_chart_1.png centrifuge reduction: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641998613559640074/IRAN_DEAL_CARD_2_centrifuges.png # iran deal: military sites inspection of military sites is possible but somewhat delayed: Under something called the Additional Protocol, which Iran accepted as part of the JCPOA, inspectors can request access to undeclared sites, including military sites. But the agreement spells out a series of steps to gain that access that could take as long as 24 days to complete. more importantly, we can literally just detect the radiation: # iran deal: didn't pass the senate the jcpoa is a "political commitment", which is nonbinding and does not require a 2/3 approval in the senate; it is not a "treaty" or "executive agreement". in 2015, Congress passed a law demanding review on the Iran deal. JCPOA legislative history, from Wikipedia: On 19 July 2015, the State Department officially transmitted to Congress the JCPOA, its annexes, and related materials.[162] These documents included the Unclassified Verification Assessment Report on the JCPOA and the Intelligence Community's Classified Annex to the Verification Assessment Report.[162] The sixty-day review period began the next day, 20 July,[162][163][159] and ended 17 September.[164] Senator Ted Cruz introduced a resolution seeking a delay in the review period, arguing that the sixty-day congressional review under the Act should not begin until the Senate obtains a copy of all bilateral Iran-IAEA documents. This resolution did not pass.[165][166] Ultimately, a resolution of disapproval was brought to the Senate floor, but failed. A resolution of approval was brought to the House floor, but it, too, failed. As a result, the agreement went into effect following congressional review period.[167] Senate vote: Senate: 42 for, 58 against; as long as it wasn't vetoed (67 for), the bill would become law House vote: House: 162 for, 269 against; as long as it wasn't vetoed (291 for), the bill would become law ##### # alleged violations #####o # iran deal: israeli documents the Israeli documents did not show that Iran was actively breaking the nuclear deal; they merely confirmed existence of a secret nuclear program that ended in 2004: [Secretary of State Michael Pompeo:] The existence of the AMAD program that ended roughly December of 2003, January of 2004, it is accurate to say that the knowledge of that has been known for – the fact of that had been known for quite some time. But there are thousands of new documents and new information. We’re still going through it. There’s still a lot of work to do to figure out precisely the scope and scale of it. But it is the case – it – there is new information about that program. # iran deal: heavy water violations iran technically but minimally violated the JCPOA twice in 2016: it overproduced heavy water, but then shut down said heavy water production plant: "The report noted that Iran had slightly exceeded the heavy-water stockpile limit of 130 metric tons set out in the deal. The report said that Iran had 130.1 metric tons Nov. 8. Iran says it has since shipped out 11 metric tons for storage in Oman." #####c #####c ##### # # ukrainian-russian relations # #####o ##### # background: euromaidan protests #####o 2013 November 21: Euromaidan protests begin: 2014 January 16: Ukraine parliament passes anti-protest laws: 2014 February 22: Yanukovych flees Ukraine: 2014 February 27: Russia invades Crimea: 2014 March 16: Crimean holds referendum: #####c ##### # crimean status: polling #####o # good summary article on the complexities from 538 FiveThirtyEight 2014: summary of polling before Crimean annexation and the difficulties/complexities of polling the issue: # todo scrape additional polls from this description https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtAz5bWsEbw # polls on crimea before march 2014 referendum: razumkov Razumkov 2008: 64% of people in Crimea supported Crimea seceding and joining Russia: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960258755054952479/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960269525289418802/unknown.png Razumkov 2009: a 32% plurality chose "secede from Ukraine and join Russia", 20% chose "become Russian national autonomy as a part of Ukraine", 14% "preserve status of autonomy as a part of Ukraine with expanded rights and powers"; remainder chose "hard to say" or a minor option: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960265502633103491/unknown.png # polls on crimea before march 2014 referendum: gallup Gallup, USAID, IRI 2011: of people in Ukraine, 49% preferred "autonomy in Ukraine as today", 33% "Crimea should be separated and given to Russia", 6% "common oblast of Ukraine", 4% "Crimean Tatar autonomy within Ukraine": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960271574232076308/unknown.png Gallup, USAID, IRI 2013: of people in Ukraine, 53% preferred "autonomy in Ukraine as today", 23% "Crimea should be separated and given to Russia", 12% "Crimean Tatar autonomy within Ukraine", 2% "common oblast of Ukraine": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960271196585345084/unknown.png Gallup, USAID, IRI 2014: # polls on crimea before march 2014 referendum: undp UNDP 2009 Q3: 9% of people in Crimea thought Crimea should be an independent state, 46% an autonomous subject of Russia, 24% a subject of Ukraine with extended powers, 9% a subject of Ukraine with similar powers, and 6% a common oblast of Ukraine; if a referendum to join Crimea and Russia were held, 70% would vote in favor and 14% would vote against: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960276408142290954/unknown.png UNDP 2009 Q4, 10% of people in Crimea thought Crimea should be an independent state, 43% an autonomous subject of Russia, 24% a subject of Ukraine with extended powers, 9% a subject of Ukraine with similar powers, and 7% a common oblast of Ukraine; if a referendum to join Crimea and Russia were held, 67% would vote in favor and 15% would vote against: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960276408142290954/unknown.png UNDP 2010 Q1: 10% of people in Crimea thought Crimea should be an independent state, 33% an autonomous subject of Russia, 24% a subject of Ukraine with extended powers, 9% a subject of Ukraine with similar powers, and 7% a common oblast of Ukraine; if a referendum to join Crimea and Russia were held, 66% would vote in favor and 14% would vote against: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960277497587568660/unknown.png UNDP 2010 Q2: 10% of people in Crimea thought Crimea should be an independent state, 31% an autonomous subject of Russia, 24% a subject of Ukraine with extended powers, 9% a subject of Ukraine with similar powers, and 6% a common oblast of Ukraine; if a referendum to join Crimea and Russia were held, 65% would vote in favor and 12% would vote against: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960277497587568660/unknown.png UNDP 2010 Q3: 8% of people in Crimea thought Crimea should be an independent state, 48% an autonomous subject of Russia, 24% a subject of Ukraine with extended powers, 9% a subject of Ukraine with similar powers, and 6% a common oblast of Ukraine; if a referendum to join Crimea and Russia were held, 67% would vote in favor and 11% would vote against: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960277497587568660/unknown.png UNDP 2010 Q4: 7% of people in Crimea thought Crimea should be an independent state, 45% an autonomous subject of Russia, 28% a subject of Ukraine with extended powers, 9% a subject of Ukraine with similar powers, and 5% a common oblast of Ukraine; if a referendum to join Crimea and Russia were held, 66% would vote in favor and 9% would vote against: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960277497587568660/unknown.png UNDP 2011 Q4: 11% of people in Crimea thought Crimea should be an independent state, 41% an autonomous subject of Russia, 19% a subject of Ukraine with extended powers, 12% a subject of Ukraine with similar powers, and 6% a common oblast of Ukraine; if a referendum to join Crimea and Russia were held, 66% would vote in favor and 14% would vote against: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960277506571788318/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024852986675089500/unknown.png # polls on crimea before march 2014 referendum: other KIIS 2014 February 8-18: 41% of people in Crimea, 33% in Donetsk, and 24% in Luhansk said that "Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960253219362181200/unknown.png "Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state" GfK 2014 March 12-14: 54% would join Russia, 5% restore 1992 constitution, 19% independent Crimean state, 13% keep status quo (37% total for 1992 const, independent, status quo): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960270404667211796/unknown.png # leaked report from the council on human rights Russian President's Council on Human Rights 2014 April 27: 50-60% of voters voted for joining Russia, with turnout of 30-50%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1061429685592019004/image.png "Проблемы жителей Крыма" ["Problems of Crimean residents"] """Референдум: По мнению практически всех опрошенных специалистов и граждан: - подавляющее большинство жителей Севастополя проголосовали на референдуме за присоединение к России (явка 50-80 %), в Крыму по разным данным за присоединение к России проголосовали 50-60 % избирателей при общей явке в 30-50 %; - жители Крыма голосовали не столько за присоединение к России, сколько за прекращение, по их словам, «коррупционного беспредела и воровского засилья донецких ставленников». Жители же Севастополя голосовали именно за присоединение к России. Опасения перед незаконными вооруженными формированиями в Севастополе были больше, чем в других районах Крыма.""""""Referendum: In the opinion of almost all the experts and citizens surveyed: - the overwhelming majority of Sevastopol residents voted in the referendum for joining Russia (50-80% turnout), in Crimea, according to various sources, 50-60% of voters voted for joining Russia, with a total turnout in 30-50%; - the inhabitants of Crimea voted not so much for joining Russia, but for stopping, in their words, "corruption lawlessness and the dominance of thieves by Donetsk proteges." The inhabitants of Sevastopol voted specifically for joining Russia. Fears of illegal armed formations in Sevastopol were greater than in other regions of Crimea.""" # referendum results Wikipedia: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024755927963943042/unknown.png ^ Wikipedia's source: # post-referendum polling Pew May 2014: 88% of Crimeans say that Kyiv should recognize the results of the referendum in Crimea (4% oppose); 54% of Crimeans say that Kyiv should allow regions to secede from Ukraine (12% oppose): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1067921648856076298/PG-2014-05-08-ukraine-russia-0-05.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1067921662378508308/PG_14.png Sasse 2017: 78.8% of Crimean residents say they would vote the same as in March 2014, suggesting that most residents would have supported the referendum: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1029922663965134918/unknown.png #####c ##### # donbas status #####o # polling in 2014 KIIS 2014 April 8-16: among Donetsk residents, 52.2% oppose and 27.5% support seceding from Ukraine to join Russia; among Luhansk residents, 51.9% oppose and 30.3% support: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018276232640606378/unknown.png "Do you support the idea, that your region should secede from Ukraine and join Russia?" # polling in 2016 and 2019 Sasse 2017 (ZOiS December 2016): 35.0+20.6=55.6% of DPR/LPR residents said that they would prefer that the DPR/LPR be made part of Ukraine; 11.4+33.1=44.5% said that they would prefer that the DPR/LPR be made part of Russia: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1029920338357796864/unknown.png Sasse and Lackner 2019 (ZOiS February–March 2019): 31.0+23.5=54.5% of DPR/LPR residents said that they would prefer that the DPR/LPR be made part of Ukraine; 18.3+27.2=45.5% said that they would prefer part of Russia: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1029908774917517323/unknown.png ^ ZOiS is funded by the German Government: # polling in 2022 CNN / Savanta ComRes 2022 Feb 7-15: 17.7% of Eastern Ukraine residents, 16.0% of Southern Ukraine residents, 19.1% of Russian-speaking residents think that "Russia and Ukraine should be one country": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025190488690655264/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1029914495646187630/unknown.png 39/220=17.7%, 33/206=16.0% # 2014 referendum results Wikipedia: Donetsk 11 May 2014: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024834371502473236/unknown.png "Do you support the Act of State Self-rule of the Donetsk People's Republic?" """"That can be considered the final and official result," he said, reporting exact figures of 89.07 percent for and 10.19 percent against. "We demand the right to self-determination, and we will get it."""" Luhansk 11 May 2014: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024834602373754920/unknown.png "Do you support the declaration of state independence of the Luhansk People's Republic?" """LUHANSK. May 12 (Interfax) - The organizers of the referendum on the status of the Luhansk region allege that 96% of the region's residents who have a right to vote voted for the state independence of the Luhansk People's Republic on May 11. Oleksandr Malykhin, chairman for the Central Elections Commission in charge of the referendum, told a press conference in Luhansk on Monday that 1.35 million ballots were given to voters at polling stations and another 15,000 ballots were given to voters outside of polling stations. According to his information, 1.29 million people, or 96% of the people who voted in the referendum, voted for the state independence of the "Luhansk Republic" and 51,276 people, or 3.8% of the people who received ballots, voted against it. The voter turnout was 75%, Malykhin said. According to the tentative results announced by Malykhin on Monday, the voter turnout reached in the Luhansk region reached 81%, of which 95.98% voted for the federalization of the Luhansk region.""" # 2022 referendum results Wikipedia: RIA NOVOSTI 2022 Sep 27: results by region: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024753778076962826/unknown.png # blank ballots 1TV News: watch a polling staffer "count" blank votes all as yes: """The results of the referendum for the Donetsk & Luhansk people's Republics seem to heavily favor joining Russia. As you can see from this video of a Russian poll worker diligently counting votes from unticked ballots & without looking at the front of them.""" Первый канал [Channel 1] "Выпуск новостей в 18:00 от 27.09.2022 [News release at 18:00 from 27.09.2022]" CNN September 27: poll workers counting (blank) ballots: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025192906664972359/unknown.png """Members of an election commission count ballots at a polling station in Donetsk on September 27. (Stringer/AP)""" Nexta September 27: poll watchers with nearly all blank ballots in front of them: # notable "international poll watchers" 1TV News: * 1st cited: Alain Corvez, who's written for Geopolitika.ru (whose iconography is the 8-pointed Duginist star) and who's spoken for the Schiller institute (a LaRouchite NazBol organization) * 2nd cited: "Aristid George Romuald Olama" (no Google results): * that's it lol # "why aren't there international observers for US elections" there are. the OSCE (an international organization) observed the US election in 2020: no observers from the OSCE (an international organizations) observed the referenda in 2022: # list of absurdly stupid people who accepted or promoted the sham 2022 referenda results Black in the Empire @blackintheempir: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025487113669578864/unknown.png UkraineNews @Ukraine66251776: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025180792936214568/unknown.png DΛVID.cu @Dvdzov: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025181570878939258/unknown.png ivstitia @ivstitia1: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025181699191095437/unknown.png Sphithiphithi Evaluator @_AfricanSoil: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025181864236961823/unknown.png Eva Karene Bartlett @EvaKBartlett: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025184760886218822/unknown.png vanessa beeley @VanessaBeeley: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025196896626688090/unknown.png vanessa beeley @VanessaBeeley: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025181148042756136/unknown.png vanessa beeley @VanessaBeeley: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025180981323378688/unknown.png vanessa beeley @VanessaBeeley: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025181260127162419/unknown.png Valeria @Valere_ia: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025185221588557954/unknown.png Rachel Blevins @RachBlevins: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025185344888524932/unknown.png привет Индонезия @privetbro1: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025185657938776115/unknown.png Fiorella Isabel @FiorellaIsabelM (of The Convo Couch @TheConvoCouch): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025184984530690068/unknown.png Fiorella Isabel @FiorellaIsabelM (of The Convo Couch @TheConvoCouch): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025185832031768686/unknown.png Fiorella Isabel @FiorellaIsabelM (of The Convo Couch @TheConvoCouch): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025185986629603370/unknown.png Patrick Lancaster @PLnewstoday: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025186411864932402/unknown.png AZ @AZmilitary1: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025186956981846066/unknown.png Jacob Charite @jaccocharite: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025196502412435466/unknown.png Max Blumenthal @MaxBlumenthal: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025197164093263943/unknown.png Max Blumenthal @MaxBlumenthal: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1025197684887388180/unknown.png #####c ##### # frozen conflict period #####o Crisis Group 2022: summarizes the violence on the Ukraine-Russia "frozen conflict" border; graph specifically shows repeated violations of ceasefire agreements: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1062536894577127476/image.png #####c ##### # documented war crimes by russian forces: surrendered civilian killing near Myla #####o # see also Civilian Harm in Ukraine map: # map map of location: ZoomEarth plus annotations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961896410897326080/unknown.png # drone footage by ukrainian armed forces ZDF 2022 April 1, from Ukrainian Armed Forces on 2022 March 7: Russian tank unit executes two surrendered civilians, drag off their bodies, brun the bodies, and then burn the cars: BBC 2022 March 15, from Ukrainian Armed Forces on 2022 March 7: Russian tank unit executes two surrendered civilians, drag off their bodies, brun the bodies, and then burn the cars: #####c ##### # alleged war crimes done by russian forces: bucha massacre #####o # background: geolocation rough coordinates: 50.548611, 30.220833 or 50°32′55″N 30°13′15″E map of location: NYTimes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961159137243316254/unknown.png map of location: ZoomEarth plus annotations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961171132906610709/unknown.png # background: forces present Bellingcat 2022 April 03: 76th Air Assault, 98th Air Assault, Kadyrov's Rosgvardia WaPo 2022 April 02: 7th Paratrooper Unit 11: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961890707407265812/unknown.png Kyiv Independent: 64 Motor Rifle Brigade: 76th Guards Air Assault Division: 98th Guards Airborne Division: 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division: 64th Motor Rifle Brigade: Kadyrov Rosgvardia ("Kadyrovites"): Wagner Group: # background: timeline 2022 February 26: attacks on Bucha begin by 64th Motor Rifle Brigade: 2022 February 27: fighting in Bucha continues: video 1: video 2: video 3: ^ some sources in accurately say Russians had already taken the suburb: 2022 March 30: Russian forces claim they have completely left the city by this date: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961420907186892820/unknown.png 2022 March 31: Bucha Mayor Anatoliy Fedoruk gives address claiming "day of liberation" for Bucha: 2022 April 01: Bucha City Councilmember Taras Shapravsky claims that "the city remains under occupation" and "the liberation of the city continues": 2022 April 01: Ukrainian forces enter city: # yablonska: bicyclist: combined footage: russian forces fire on cyclist at exact spot where cyclist body is found later Armed Forces of Ukraine / Nexta 2022 April 5, drone video shot before 2022 March 11, drone footage shows Russian armor fire on a cyclist at 50.54148, 30.228898: """New drone imagery shows Russian forces firing on a cyclists in Bucha, on Yablunska Street at 50.54148, 30.228898, where multiple corpses have been filmed and photographed""""""Что скажут российские власти вот на это видео из Бучи?""""""What will the Russian authorities say to this video from Bucha?""" Informatsia Obstanovka 2022 April 1, attributed to "kievskiy.dvizh" on Instagram: footage from Bucha streets, going along with Ukrainian military members; bicyclist from above is clearly visible: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961880989175533588/vlcsnap-2022-04-08-01h51m18s330.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961880989469114408/vlcsnap-2022-04-08-01h51m31s947.png """Ирпень, чудовищные кадры из пригорода Киева, где ВСУ разбили орков. Слабонервным не смотреть.""""""Irpen, monstrous footage from the suburbs of Kyiv, where the UAF defeated the orcs. Not to look nervous.""" ^ Kievsky Dvizh channels: ^ Bellingcat 2022 April 5: satellite pictures from Planet show the building next to the street corner was destroyed on 11 March, indicating that the video took place before that date: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961846562974220298/unknown.png NYTimes 2022 April 5: videos highlighting the objects and sequence of events in above UFA video and in IO video: NYTimes 2022 April 5: satellite images from Maxar demonstrate that the body shown in the IO video was present there since before March 21: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961885104907636766/unknown.png AFP 2022 April 5: satellite images from Maxar demonstrate that at least six of the bodies shown on Yablonsky street were present on March 19: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961893457088118784/unknown.png # yablonska: yablonska artem drivethrough: combined footage: satellite images prove bodies not present on 28 february, appeared on 9-11 March and 20-21 March Артем Гурін (Artem Gurin), before 9:02pm UTC [10:02 PM in Ukraine] on April 1st: ground footage as verified by three Twitter posters, drives down Yablonska street and shows 11 bodies: NYTimes and Maxar 2022 February 28: 9 of 11 bodies can be exactly geolocated using satellite images: NYTimes and Maxar 2022 February 28: this section of yablonska street has no bodies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961173358555320360/bucha_feb_28.png NYTimes and Maxar 2022 February 28: this section of yablonska street has 7 bodies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961173358865702912/bucha_march_19.png The images of Yablonska Street show at least 11 "dark objects of similar size to a human body" appearing between 9 and 11 March. Their location precisely matches positions where the bodies were filmed by a local council member after Ukrainian forces reclaimed the city. A second video on the same street shows three bodies near bicycles and abandoned cars, which according to satellite imagery appeared between 20 and 21 March. The Times concluded that the analysis rebuts Russian claims about the killing of civilians happening after withdrawal of the Russian army. # yablonska: ground footage: ukrainian military driving through street Ministry of Defense of Ukraine 2022 April 2: Espresso.TV: Kira Rudik: HD Archive: TODO GET GROUND PICS: https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1510752031589470209?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1510752031589470209%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dw.com%2Fen%2Fukraine-germany-expels-russian-diplomats-with-bucha-deaths-in-focus-as-it-happened%2Fa-61348480 see also https://twitter.com/ItsBorys/status/1510646783013183489 # yablonska: combined footage: afp, reuters, wapo AFP 2022 April 02: "In the town of Bucha, AFP reporters saw at least 20 bodies on a single street including one with his hands tied"; picture by AFP photojournalist Ronald Schemidt shows two men walking near several bodies on the street; unclear geolocation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961867513199722526/unknown.png picture by AFP photojournalist Ronald Schemidt shows 6 bodies on unclear geolocation: TODO: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961868267427872778/unknown.jpg Ronald Schemidt: clear shot of bicyclist through burned out car windows: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961892293575602206/unknown.png Ronald Schemidt: body strewn with bodies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961892310356983818/unknown.png Reuters 2022 April 02: "Vasily, 55, reacts while talking to journalists beside the body of a relative, who according to him was killed by Russian army soldiers, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Bucha, in Kyiv region, Ukraine April 2, 2022. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961889568196550706/unknown.png Reuters 2022 April 02: "A body of a civilian, who according to residents was killed by Russian army soldiers, lies on the street, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Bucha, in Kyiv region, Ukraine April 2, 2022. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961889577273016390/unknown.png WaPo 2022 April 3: video of various bodies around the town, on the street, in houses, etc.: """Bucha’s mayor, Anatoly Fedoruk, told The Post by phone that around 270 local residents had been buried in two mass graves. He also said that about 40 people were lying in the streets but that it was difficult to get a count. Some of the bodies had their hands bound or were shot in the back of the head, he said.""" # yablonsky: combined footage: Bucha Live 2022 April 03, alleged cellphone footage of Russian soldiers allegedly interrogating and executing a Ukrainian civilian, allegedly recorded on 2022 March 25: Archive: ^ geolocated to at 50.5423642, 30.2317107: ^ composite image of above with footage from UFA drive through Ukraine: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961902850953343006/unknown.png ^ Galit Glockman 2022 April 3: composite footage from AFP and cellphone footage: ^ Galit Glockman 2022 April 4: stabilized footage clearly showing a shot: # trench: satellite images: existed by 10 March, was 45 feet long on 31 March; Church of St. Andrew and Pyervozvannoho All Saints Maxar 2022 March 10: picture shows trench about 6 feet long: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961133136039776266/unknown.png Maxar 2022 March 31: picture shows trench about 45 feet long: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961126374670761994/unknown.png # trench: ground footage: contextualized, may be burials of "civilian men" or "civil defenders" Director of Primary Healthcare for Irpin City Center Andrii Levkivskyi [Антон Довгопол] 2022 March 12: 67 civilians were buried: """А зараз про не приємне, 67 цивільних чоловік поховали на території міської Церкви м. Буча у братській могилі.Були різні, де кого навіть не індетифікували….. Кажете немає війни?! P.S. На братских могилах не ставят крестов, но разве от этого легче?????????????""""""And now about the unpleasant, 67 civilians were buried on the territory of the city Church of Bucha in a mass grave. They were different, where no one was even identified… .. You say there is no war ?! P.S. Crosses are not placed on mass graves, but is it easier ?????????????""" 4K Media: civil defenders were buried: """В Бучі у братській могилі похоронили цивільних захисників України, деяких навіть не змогли ідентифікувати (відео). Про це повідомив директор Ірпінського міського центру первинної медико-санітарної допомоги Андрій Левківський. «А зараз про не приємне, 67 цивільних чоловік поховали на території міської Церкви м. Буча. Були різні, декого навіть не ідентифікували… Кажете немає війни?!», – зауважив він. Civil defenders of Ukraine were buried in a mass grave in Bucha, some could not even be identified (video). This was announced by the director of the Irpin city center of primary health care Andriy Levkivsky. "And now it's not pleasant, 67 civilians were buried on the territory of the city church in Bucha. They were different, some were not even identified… You say there is no war ?! », - he noted.""" # trench: misattributed image: motyzhyn trench buried bodies UNIAN, 2022 April 02: image is actually from Motyzhyn: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961865296531046450/MotyzhinBodies2022April02.jpg """Кадры из Мотыжина. Братская могила мирных жителей, убитых оккупантами. У некоторых связаны руки. Images from Motyzhyn. A mass grave full of civilians who were killed by the occupiers. Some of them have their arms tied.""" # russian state media claims: bodies moved in bucha films: it's literally a water drop and mirror edge Russia Defense Ministry: bodies are fake and clearly moved: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961876662427983982/unknown.png """The video of the bodies is confusing: here at the 12th second the "corpse" on the right is moving his arm. At 30th second in the rear view mirror the "corpse" sits down. The bodies in the video seem to have been deliberately laid out to create a more dramatic picture. This is easily seen if you play the video at 0.25 of normal speed.""" Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russian First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN: "Forget this video where a “corpse” suddenly waves his hand! It’s all Russian propaganda! Next time they will simply find better actors!" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961904720463659018/unknown.png Original video in HD: AuroraIntel 2022 April 3: slowed footage shows that the body "raising its arm" is clearly just a water droplet on the windshield: """Getting fed up of this “it’s a moving arm” bullsh….. it’s a raindrop on the windscreen, alongside an inverted channel version for more clarity. The whole arm moving thing is just ridiculous.""" Shayan Sardarizadeh 2022 April 3: slowed footage shows that the body "getting up" is clearly just mirror distortion: AFP photojournalist Danny Kemp, 2022 April 03: the same body was photographed by the AFP on 03 April in the exact same position and location: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961876302573502514/unknown.png # russian state media claims: bodies looked fresh: false AFP reporters 2022 April 02: "The skin on the faces of the corpses looked waxy, suggesting that they had been there for at least several days"; "AFP on Saturday saw the bodies of at least 22 people in civilian clothes on a single street in Bucha": AFP photojournalist Danny Kemp, 2022 April 06: """They were spaced out along the street at irregular intervals over a distance of around 400 metres, some alone and some in small groups of two or three. We walked along the entire length of the scene at least twice. We counted the bodies, noting that there were 20, photographed them, and filmed them. At no time did we see any of them move. "During that time we noted that the bodies were all wearing civilian clothing. They had waxy, sallow skin, and had stiff-looking fingers, with some having discoloured fingernails. Some had limbs in awkward poses. "Some had their eyes open, some had their mouths gaping open. They had clearly been dead for a number of days, if not longer.""" # russian state media claims: azov battalion entered: correct, but timeline puts them entering on 2nd at earliest NYTimes, 2022 April 2: NYTimes photojournalist Daniel Berehulak toured Bucha streets with neo-Nazi Azov Battalion members of the international "Odin Unit"; elderly residents of Bucha walk past a body on the street: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961885784879796284/unknown.png NYTimes, 2022 April 03: this picture of the Azov Battalion is undated, posted on April 03: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961129298285191228/unknown.png # russian state media claims: deaths may have resulted from ukrainian shelling Russian Ambassador to Washington Anatoly Antonov, 2022 April 4: """Meanwhile, the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled the town of Bucha right after Russian troops had left was deliberately ignored in the US. This is what could have caused civilian casualties. That said, the Kiev regime is clearly trying to blame its atrocities on Russia.""" # bucha massacre: todo CCTV footage and cell footage and drone footage: lots of ground footage from AFP: videos, see bottom for YT link: https://twitter.com/ChanceGardiner/status/1511480900969766918 Collates together several Yablonska street claims: Lots of skeptical videos: Footage of a horrific killing: Footage of a horrific killing: anti-skeptical evidence: skeptical timeline: skeptical bullshit: # bucha massacre: german intelligence Der Spiegel, 2022 April 7: the German foreign intelligence service BND intercepted radio traffic from north of Kiev; BND claims the audio incriminates Russian soldiers, who spoke about killing civilians as though it were commonplace; BND claims the audio indicates that the Wagner Group was present: """The intercepted comments now appear to refute Russia’s denials. DER SPIEGEL has learned that the BND briefed parliamentarians on Wednesday about its findings. Some of the intercepted traffic apparently matches the locations of bodies found along the main road through town. In one of them, a soldier apparently told another that they had just shot a person on a bicycle. That corresponds to the photo of the dead body lying next to a bicycle that has been shared around the world. In another intercepted conversation, a man apparently said: First you interrogate soldiers, then you shoot them. The BND material also apparently provides evidence that members of the Russian mercenary unit called the Wagner Group played a leading role in the atrocities. The group is known to have perpetrated similar atrocities in Syria. [....] The radio traffic intercepted by the BND makes it seem as though the atrocities perpetrated on civilians in Bucha were neither random acts nor the product of individual soldiers who got out of hand. Rather, say sources familiar with the audio, the material suggests that the troops spoke of the atrocities as though they were simply discussing their everyday lives. That, say sources familiar with the audio, indicates that the murder of civilians has become a standard element of Russian military activity, potentially even part of a broader strategy. The intention is that of spreading fear among the civilian population and thus reducing the will to resist.""" # bucha massacre: testimony HRW 2022 March 30: Olena alleges hearing of extrajudicial killings, lootings, and random shootings at residences: """By March 4, Russian forces were everywhere in Bucha. They drove tanks and armored vehicles through people’s fences and parked them in residential backyards. There were military vehicles at every house, near every apartment building. “We saw them [military vehicles] driving down the street [Sklozavodska], shooting randomly at windows,” Olena said. “They were just shooting.” Russian soldiers went from house to house, breaking doors and windows, searching and questioning people. Olena saw them taking people’s clothes and shoes, changing, and dumping their own clothes on the street. They heard reports of extrajudicial killings and civilians shot while trying to get water. [....] The soldiers walked Olena back to Yablunska Street and told her to stand facing away from her house. One of them shot a gun at her feet, marking a line of bullet holes on the road. “See this line? Walk along it, do not sway,” he told her. “If you veer left or right, you are dead.”""" HRW 2022 March 30: killing of Olena's husband: """Dmytro Mukhin spoke very fast, when I asked what happened to Viktor. He said that it happened on March 5, at around 1 p.m. “It was quiet, so we got out of the shelter, [went to the house] and were on the ground floor, in a room. And then [shelling] hit the house, two direct hits, one after another. We all fell to the floor. Two or three minutes later we heard glass breaking outside, then loud steps. Someone was yelling: “Check the second floor!” Vitya moved, he got up, there was automatic gunfire and he fell, screaming in pain. He yelled: “Please don’t shoot! I am wounded, there are civilians here, children, don’t shoot.” “The [soldiers] started banging on the door. We opened and they walked in. There were 4 or 5 of them, I don’t even remember now. Their clothes were very dirty, some of them had St. George [orange and black striped] ribbons on their helmets. They told us to get outside, one by one. We went into the yard. We said, there is a wounded man there, please help him. They refused. They said they had no bandages or medicines. We stood there for 30 or 40 minutes while they searched the house. Then they came outside, told us to go in and stay there, and left. We went inside. We tried to help Vitya. He was still alive, lying where we left him. “We cut his sweater open and saw that there was a surface wound on this chest, no entry bullet wound, and I thought for a moment that it was not so bad. But when we turned him over, we saw three bullet holes around his left shoulder blade. His sleeve was soaked through, and the blood pooled on the floor under him. We tried to stop the bleeding with the bedsheet. He was struggling to breathe.” Viktor died 20 minutes later. Dmytro and his family put him on a mattress and dragged him to the boiler room, which was the coldest room in the house. They spent two more nights sheltering in Viktor and Olena’s house before fleeing Bucha. Dmytro’s voice was calm but it shook a little when he said he felt responsible for what happened. “If I hadn’t asked them for help, Vitya might have still been alive.”""" HRW 2022 April 3: witness alleges that Russian forces executed one of five men: """On March 4, Russian forces in Bucha, about 30 kilometers northwest of Kyiv, rounded up five men and summarily executed one of them. A witness told Human Rights Watch that soldiers forced the five men to kneel on the side of the road, pulled their T-shirts over their heads, and shot one of the men in the back of the head. “He fell [over],” the witness said, “and the women [present at the scene] screamed.”""" HRW 2022 April 3: teacher alleges executoin of several men: """On March 4, Russian forces summarily executed a man in Bucha, 30 kilometers northwest of Kyiv, and threatened to execute four others, said a teacher who witnessed the killing. She said she heard shooting at about 7 a.m. and saw three Russian armored vehicles and four Kamaz [Russian brand] trucks driving down her street. She was sheltering in the cellar with her two dogs when she heard glass breaking, and then her front door being broken down. Voices outside said [in Russian]: “Come outside right now or we will throw a grenade.” She yelled that she was alone in the cellar and came out with her hands up. “There were three men outside, two [Russian] soldiers and a commander,” she said. “They took my phone and checked it, then told me to get my [identification] documents and come with them.” As she walked down the street with the soldiers, she saw that they were also rounding up her neighbors and ordering them to walk. She said: They took us to where the office of AgroButpostach [a rental storage company] used to be. Right next to the building, there is a parking lot and a small square. They gathered people at that square, mostly women but there were also several men among us, over 50 [years old]. There were around 30 military there and the commander had [paratrooper] insignia [on his fatigues]. He spoke with an accent from western or central western Russia…. I was born in Russia myself, so I pick up on such things. The soldiers were all thin and looked the worse for wear. She said that the soldiers brought about 40 people to the square, gathered everyone’s phones, checked documents, and asked who was in territorial defense, or local self-defense units: Two women asked to go to the bathroom. One of them was pregnant. I asked to go with them. A soldier showed us the way to the toilet, which was around the building, I think it was now their headquarters. The building was long. Along the wall on the other side, we saw a large pool of blood. She said they waited in the square for hours in the very cold weather: At one point they brought in one young man, then four more. The soldiers ordered them [to] take off their boots and jackets. They made them kneel on the side of the road. Russian soldiers pulled their T-shirts, from behind and over their heads. They shot one in the back of the head. He fell. Women screamed. The other four men were just kneeling there. The commander said to the rest of the people at the square: “Don’t worry. You are all normal – and this is dirt. We are here to cleanse you from the dirt.” She said that after several more hours the soldiers took the people back to their homes. The other four men remained kneeling when she left. She said that when she was able to leave the town on March 9, the young man’s body was still lying where he had been shot.""" Amnesty International, 2022 April 7: woman's mother testify that she was shot when looking over her fence at a Russian military vehicle; woman's neighbor testifies that she saw the woman dead on the street outside the woman's house: """Milena, a 24-year-old from Bucha, told Amnesty International that she saw the body of a woman who had lived on her street lying outside her house. The woman’s mother told Milena that her daughter was shot in the initial days of the invasion while looking over her fence at a Russian military vehicle. Amnesty International’s Crisis Evidence Lab independently verified video footage that confirmed the location of the shallow grave in which she was buried.""" # russian state media claims: mayor did not mention civilian deaths in 31 March address: false in context Anatoliy Fedoruk 2022 March 31, original: ^ Anatoliy Fedoruk 2022 March 31, Ruptly translation: no explicit mention of bodies on the street: """Dear friends, the honored community of Bucha! March 31 will become the history of our settlement and the entire territorial community as the day of liberation of our settlements from the Russian orcs, from the Russian occupants by our Armed Forces of Ukraine. So, today I state that this day is a great day, a day of great victory. A great victory for our armed forces in the Kiev region. We will be with you, we will wait for you, and we will do everything to make the great victory happen in the whole of Ukraine. Glory to the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Glory to Ukraine! Glory to all Ukrainians, no matter which part of Ukraine they are in now.""" ^ Anatoliy Fedoruk 2022 March 31, Russian Mission in Geneva translation: no explicit mention of bodies on the street; Russian claim "Not a single word on the tragedy. Either he was too blind too see all the reported dead in the streets, or they appeared there much later...": """Dear friends, this is the Bucha community. March 31 will go down in history of our city, our entire territorial community as the day of liberation from Russian "orks", Russian occupiers by our armed forces of our settlements. I can state that today's a happy day and a great victory, a great victory of our armed forces in the Kiev area. And the wait will soon be over, as we will do everything so taht the great victory will be over the entire Ukraine. Glory to our armed forces, glory to Ukraine, glory to every Ukrainian everywhere in our country!""" Bucha City Councilmember Taras Shapravsky, 2022 April 01: claims that "the city remains under occupation" and "the liberation of the city continues": Anatoliy Fedoruk 2022 March 28: Russians "do not allow doctors to help the wounded" or "relatives to recover the bdoies of their loved ones"; "Some corpses have been there since the beginning of the occupation, the hungry dogs are eating them": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961381429617524786/unknown.png """A questo si somma "un piano del terrore contro la popolazione civile: qui a Bucha vediamo tutti gli orrori di cui abbiamo sentito parlare come crimini compiuti dai nazisti durante la seconda guerra mondiale. È difficile credere che una cosa del genere possa accadere nel XXI secolo", osserva il sindaco, riferendo di brutali uccisioni di civili, stupri e saccheggi delle case da parte dei soldati russi, che "non hanno pietà neanche per gli anziani, non consentono ai medici di prestare soccorso ai feriti e ai parenti di recuperare i corpi dei loro cari morti. Alcuni cadaveri sono lì dall'inizio dell'occupazione, li stanno mangiando i cani affamati. I russi devono far entrare nei territori temporaneamente occupati una missione internazionale, affinché si fermi lo spregio dei morti".""""""To this is added "a plan of terror against the civilian population: here in Bucha we see all the horrors we have heard of as crimes committed by the Nazis during World War II. It is difficult to believe that such a thing could happen in the 21st century. ", observes the mayor, referring to brutal killings of civilians, rape and looting of homes by Russian soldiers, who" have no mercy even for the elderly, do not allow doctors to help the wounded and relatives to recover the bodies of their loved ones dead. Some corpses have been there since the beginning of the occupation, the hungry dogs are eating them. The Russians must have an international mission enter the temporarily occupied territories, so that the contempt for the dead stops".""" Anatoliy Fedoruk 2022 March 7: """We can’t even gather up the bodies because the shelling from heavy weapons doesn’t stop day or night. Dogs are pulling apart the bodies on the city streets. It’s a nightmare.""": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961387788031393902/unknown.png Anatolii Fedoruk 2022 April 2: """Mayor Anatoliy Fedoruk said more than 300 residents of the town had been killed, and a mass grave at one church ground was still open, with hands and feet poking through the red clay heaped on top.""" WaPo 2022 April 3: ~310 dead, 270 buried in two mass graves, 40 on street: """Bucha’s mayor, Anatoly Fedoruk, told The Post by phone that around 270 local residents had been buried in two mass graves. He also said that about 40 people were lying in the streets but that it was difficult to get a count. Some of the bodies had their hands bound or were shot in the back of the head, he said.""" # russian state media claims: when russia pulled out of bucha background: Zvezda is a news service run by the Russian Ministry of Defense: Zvezda 2022 April 01: airborne troops and marines successfull held back Ukrainians for five days: """Подразделения воздушно-десантных войск во взаимодействии с морской пехотой в течении пяти суток успешно сдерживали действия сил неприятеля на направлении Гостомель - Буча - Озера. В итоге морские пехотинцы смогли взять под полный контроль территорию от реки Ирпень по направлению к Киеву, общей протяженностью пять километров.""""""The units of the airborne troops, in cooperation with the marines, successfully held back the actions of the enemy forces in the direction of Gostomel - Bucha - Ozera for five days. As a result, the marines were able to take full control of the territory from the Irpin River towards Kiev, with a total length of five kilometers.""" Zvezda 2022 April 03: the Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces had left the city before evidence of the massacre emerged: """В Минобороны России заявили, что российские подразделения вышли из Бучи за 4 дня до появления в СМИ «свидетельств преступлений». Они полностью покинули населенный пункт 30 марта, на следующий день после очного раунда переговоров России и Украины в Турции. 31 марта мэр Бучи Анатолий Федорук в своем видеообращении подтвердил, что в городе никого из российских военных нет и даже не упоминал о каких-либо расстрелянных на улицах местных жителях со связанными руками. Как подчеркнули в оборонном ведомстве, становится неудивительно, что все так называемые «свидетельства преступлений» в Буче появились только на четвертый день, когда в город прибыли сотрудники СБУ и представители украинского телевидения.""""""The Russian Defense Ministry said that Russian units left Bucha 4 days before the appearance of "evidence of crimes" in the media. They completely left the settlement on March 30, the day after the face-to-face round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey. On March 31, the mayor of Bucha, Anatoly Fedoruk, confirmed in his video message that there were no Russian soldiers in the city and did not even mention any local residents shot in the streets with their hands tied. As emphasized in the defense department, it is not surprising that all the so-called "evidence of crimes" in Bucha appeared only on the fourth day, when SBU officers and representatives of Ukrainian television arrived in the city.""" Zvezda 2022 April 03: the Russian Defense Ministry claims that all photographs and videos published by Kiev are fake; the bodies are fake because they are not stiffened, do not have cadaveric spots, and have uncoagulated blood in wounds: """«Все опубликованные киевским режимом фотографии и видеоматериалы, якобы свидетельствующие о каких-то "преступлениях" российских военнослужащих в городе Буча Киевской области являются очередной провокацией... Особую озабоченность вызывает то, что все тела людей, изображения которых опубликованы киевским режимом, по прошествии минимум четырех дней не окоченели, не имеют характерных трупных пятен, а в ранах несвернувшаяся кровь. Все это неопровержимо подтверждает, что фотографии и видеокадры из Бучи - очередная постановка киевского режима для западных СМИ, как было в Мариуполе с роддомом, а также в других городах», - говорится в сообщении МО РФ.""""""“All the photographs and video materials published by the Kiev regime, allegedly testifying to some kind of “crimes” by Russian military personnel in the city of Bucha, Kiev region, are another provocation ... Of particular concern is the fact that all the bodies of people whose images are published by the Kiev regime, after at least four days have not stiffened, do not have characteristic cadaveric spots, and uncoagulated blood in the wounds. All this irrefutably confirms that the photographs and video footage from Bucha are another production of the Kiev regime for the Western media, as was the case in Mariupol with the maternity hospital, as well as in other cities, ”the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.""" ^ Russian Foreign Ministry 2022 April 03: full statement as above: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961420907186892820/unknown.png ^ Russian Defence Ministry 2022 April 03: full statement as above: # united nations meeting: going ahead! 2022 April 03: Russia blames Britain for blocking a UN Security Council meeting to discuss alleged war crimes in Bucha: 2022 April 07: Russia removed from Human Rights Council: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/977233145462149150/unknown.png 2022 April 07: Russia threatens to veto a UN investigation of Bucha through the ICC: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/977232091844591626/unknown.png 2022 April 07: the Human Rights Council votes 33-2 to investigate alleged war crimes of Russian troops near Kyiv (which would include Bucha): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/977232100279332875/unknown.png # bucha: noted liars Aaron Mate: Jackson Hinkle: clearly suggesting Azov did the Bucha massacre: # "anti-imperialist" "patriotic socialist" responses Haz April 04: supports Russian narrative that Britain blocked UN investigation into Bucha: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/977233846615556146/unknown.png """Why did Britain block Russia's request for a UN investigation into the alleged war crimes they are accused of committing at Bucha? The beauty of Western media coverages lies exposed in real time is that it posthumously exonerates the Soviet Union. The same way they're lying about Russia in Ukraine, they also lied about the black legends of the Soviet Union. Now you see how they lie.""" Hinkle April 08: supports Russian narrative that Britain blocked UN investigation into Bucha: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/977235043497947146/unknown.png """The West learned from their mistakes in Syria. Independent international investigations into alleged Russian war crimes will be too damning for the West. That is why the UK has refused two Russian efforts at the UN to launch an investigation into the Bucha war crimes.""" Hinkle April 10: Bucha story was just a distraction from HUNTER BIDEN'S DANGEROUS ZOONOTIC BIOLAB PATHOGEN RESEARCH!!! <> <> https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/977234575128403978/unknown.png """Everyone stopped talking about the fact that Hunter Biden was funding dangerous zoonotic pathogen research in level 3 Ukrainian biolabs as soon as the bogus allegations of Russian war crimes in Bucha & Kramatorsk hit the headlines.""" Hinkle April 06: "When it comes to the Bucha massacre, facts are not the friends of the Ukrainian narrative": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/977235386520698911/unknown.png Hinkle April 05: there's no way Russians killed civilians, they loved each other! <> https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/977235721708523570/unknown.png """Russia supposedly killed civilians in Bucha that they: -Lived in peace with for a month -Did not ever previously engage in combat with -Were distributing food & aid to -Knew we’re supporters of Russia (white armbands) -Were peacefully leaving during a withdrawal of the city""" Hinkle April 04: satellite photographs are bullshit, you shouldn't trust them: <> https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/977236070175502336/unknown.png Hinkle : those civilians were killed by Ukrainians: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/977236756619460608/unknown.png """The civilians had their hands tied with white arm bands. They had Russian military rations. Ukrainian SAFARI forces killed them during their “clearing operation” targeting “Russian saboteurs” in Bucha on April 1/2. I hesitate to believe any of these stories without evidence.""" Hinkle April 12: there have been war crimes on both sides, but the Russian atrocities in Bucha are "thoroughly debunked": <> https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/977237503700521030/unknown.png """I agree that there have been war crimes committed on both sides. But I do take issue with the alleged Russian atrocities in Bucha which have been thoroughly debunked. Plus the limited evidence we have (most was destroyed by UA) indicates their forces were guilty of war crimes.""" #####c ##### # documented war crimes by ukrainian forces: pow shooting in dmytrivka #####o # nearby ukrainian war crime: pow shooting in dmytrivka, verified Ukraine state news UNIAN, 2022 March 30: edited video of ambush with music overtop: """The Georgian legion continues to help Ukrainians in the cleansing of the Kiev region from "liberators".""" Ukraine Defense Ministry, 2022 April 2: "Detailed work of Ukrainian defenders in Kyiv region" forced out Dmytrivka occupiers: Oz Katerji, 2022 April 2: "Can confirm Ukrainian armed forces destroyed an armoured convoy of 13 tanks and APCs 48 hours ago near Irpin. Visual confirmation to follow." pro-Russian Telegram, 2022 April 4: full video of shooting: """Ridovka has only a cropped version, here's the full one, where they shoot at someone who is still alive.""" NYTimes: 2022 April 4: Ukrainian forces ambush a Russian convoy and appear to execute at least one living prisoner of war, while starting that the prisoners are "not even human": """“He’s still alive. Film these marauders. Look, he’s still alive. He’s gasping,” a man says as a Russian soldier with a jacket pulled over his head, apparently wounded, is seen still breathing. A soldier then shoots the man twice. After the man keeps moving, the soldier shoots him again, and he stops. At least three other apparent Russian soldiers, including one with an obvious head wound who has his hands tied behind his back, can be seen dead near the victim. All are wearing camouflage, and three have white arm bands commonly worn by Russian troops. Equipment is scattered around them and there are blood stains near each man’s head.""" #####c ##### # anti-russian bias in ukraine #####o Rating Group 2022: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1043029758256095312/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1043030493207216168/image.png """Якою мовою Ви розмовляєте вдома? Інша / Російська / I Украïнська, і російська / Украïнська""""""What language do you speak at home? Other / Russian / Ukrainian and Russian / Ukrainian""" #####c ##### # glory to ukraine / slava ukraini: far-right slogan or ukrainian nationalist slogan #####o # history Likhachev 2022: from 2000 to 2012 (pre-Maidan), "Glory to Ukraine" went from a slogan of rightist hooligans to a slogan occasionally used by more mainstream groups: """When young people from such groups went to public actions, they always chanted “Glory to Ukraine – glory to the heroes!” as well. This slogan was a historic OUN greeting. It was widely used, however, not only by street radicals, but also by the more respectable politicians of the national democratic camp. In particular, Viktor Yushchenko, the president who made the patriotic politics of national memory a priority during his cadency in 2005–2010, used this phrase. The National Democrats turned to the symbolic language of the fghters for Ukrainian independence in the middle of the 20th century in an efort to emphasize the historical continuity of the national movement. The legacy of the OUN was perceived uncritically in this environment. In Viktor Yushchenko’s time, the episodes of cooperation between the leadership of various groups of the OUN and Nazi Germany were ignored or justifed in ofcial memory policy . The scale of ethnic cleansing against Poles by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), a militarist structure created by the Ukrainian underground during the war, was understated. Special attention was paid to the armed struggle between the UPA and the Soviet regime, which was undeniably courageous and truly unique in scale and duration. Viktor Yushchenko, by his decrees, conferred the title of Hero of Ukraine on Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych (commander of the UPA). Under the next president, Viktor Yanukovych, the court ruled that these decrees were illegal. If the slogan “Glory to Ukraine!” was common to the entire Ukrainian national-patriotic spectrum, from moderate national liberals to street extremists, other formulations marked a specifcally ultra-right segment. These included “Glory to the nation – death to the enemies!” and “Ukraine is above all!”""" Likhachev 2022: during Maidan (2013-2014), "Glory to Ukraine" went from a slogan of mostly rightists to a more general slogan, nearly ubiquitous: """During three months of continuous public actions on the Maidan at the turn of 2013 – 2014, the symbolic line, previously exclusively owned by the far right, became part of the common language of protests. The national radicals themselves constituted an insignifcant minority in the total mass of the Maidan participants, and they did not have a signifcant impact on the protests in general.7 But in a situation of forceful confrontation, frst with police special forces and “titushki”,8 then with representatives of pro-Russian groups, Euromaidan activists naturally turned to the symbolic tradition that had formed in the era of armed struggle. That was the tradition of the nationalist language. The slogan “Glory to Ukraine – glory to the heroes!” became widespread on the Maidan. Almost all public speeches began and ended with these words, people greeted and said goodbye by using this slogan, etc. Slogans “Glory to the nation!” and “Ukraine above all” went beyond the narrow national-radical segment of the protesters as well. Apart from the national radical tradition, there was simply no other developed and well-established speech culture that was appropriate in this situation. True, even the Maidan taught Ukrainians the tradition of collective performance of the national anthem. Previously, it was rarely performed spontaneously, even at political events.""" Likhachev 2018: the far-right is a threat to Ukraine's democracy: thoughts in 2022: ^ biography: """Vyacheslav Likhachev, PhD in History and head of the National Minority Rights Monitoring Group. Author of the Right-Wing Extremism in Ukraine: The Phenomenon of “Svoboda”. His research interests include ethnopolitical conflict studies, xenophobia on the post-Soviet space, ideology, and activity of far-right groups in Russia and Ukraine, political extremism, theories of nation and nationalism, history of anti-Semitism, and the Jewish communities in post-Soviet space.""" # yuschenko Yuschenko 2004 September 18: speech to the European Square in Kyiv: [Aslund 2004] """We will do away with the corruption that spoils our lives. . . . Honest professionals are to replace corrupted officials. Law enforcers are to protect people against criminals. Courts will judge justly but not for the money. . . . I am running for the Presidency of Ukraine because I believe in Ukraine. . . . Glory to God and glory to Ukraine!""" ^ Diuk 2006: Yuschenko 2009: speech at opening of Donetsk soccer stadium: """Jeered and whistled at by a crowd of fifty thousand at the opening of Donetsk’s magnificent new soccer stadium, last year, he’d still got a cheer when he concluded with “Glory to Ukraine!” Now, at last, he’d managed to unite the country in its rejection of him.""" # yanukovych Yanukovych 2014 February 28: first speech after fleeing the country, does not mention "Slava Ukraine": Yanukovych 2014 March 11: second speech after fleeing the country: WaPo translation includes "Glory to Ukraine": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1061127679635619930/image.png """Ukraine is going through a very tough time now. Because of your actions, Crimea is going to secede. And these people are demanding their rights to be complied with. But you must know that one day the country will unite. The people will never be as blinded. And I would like to say: Glory to Ukraine, and I hope everything will be fine in my country. Thank you.""" Yanukovych 2014 March 11: second speech after fleeing the country: Euromaidan Press translation does not include "Glory to Ukraine": """Ukraine is going through a difficult time. Your actions have led to Crimea breaking away. Even at gunpoint, the population of the Southeast demands respect for themselves and their rights. We will overcome this turmoil. The people you fooled will see clearly. The country will rise up and unite. Ukraine’s freedom has not yet perished, nor has her glory. Thank you for the attention.""" original Ukrainian: "Ще не вмерла Украины и слава, и воля" "Ukraine's glory and will have not died yet" full text of original Ukrainian: """А вы, незаконно захватившие власть, за приказы стрелять в народ рано или поздно, а, скорее, рано, ответите, ответите за мучения народа. Украина переживает сейчас тяжелое время. Ваши действия привели к тому, что откалывается Крым. Что даже под дулом автоматов население юго-востока требует уважения к себе и своим правам. Мы переживем эту смуту. Люди, одураченные вами, прозреют. Страна воспрянет и объединится. Ще не вмерла Украины и слава, и воля. Источник: Главком""""""And you, who have illegally seized power, are ordered to shoot the people sooner or later, and sooner or later, you will respond, you will respond for the suffering of the people. Ukraine is experiencing a difficult time now. Your actions have led to the fact that Krym is breaking away. That even under the barrel of machine guns, the population of the Southeast demands respect for themselves and their rights. We will survive this turmoil. People fooled by you will see. The country will recover and unite. Ukraine's glory and will have not yet died. Source: Glavkom""" #####c ##### # nuland, pyatt, and yatsenyuk TODO UNFORMATTED XXX #####o But McCain’s actions were a model of diplomatic restraint compared to the conduct of Victoria Nuland, the assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affairs. As Ukraine’s political crisis deepened, Nuland and her subordinates became more brazen in favoring the anti‐​Yanukovych demonstrators. Nuland noted in a speech to the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation on December 13, 2013, that she had traveled to Ukraine three times in the weeks following the start of the demonstrations. Visiting the Maidan on December 5, she handed out cookies to demonstrators and expressed support for their cause. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 The extent of the Obama administration’s meddling in Ukraine’s politics was breathtaking. Russian intelligence intercepted and leaked to the international media a Nuland telephone call in which she and U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Geoffey Pyatt discussed in detail their preferences for specific personnel in a post‐​Yanukovych government. The U.S‑favored candidates included Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the man who became prime minister once Yanukovych was ousted from power. During the telephone call, Nuland stated enthusiastically that “Yats is the guy” who would do the best job. The two diplomats also were prepared to escalate the already extensive U.S. involvement in Ukraine’s political turbulence. Pyatt stated bluntly that “we want to try to get somebody with an international personality to come out here and help to midwife this thing [the political transition].” Nuland clearly had Vice President Joe Biden in mind for that role. Noting that the vice president’s national security adviser was in direct contact with her, Nuland related that she told him “probably tomorrow for an atta‐​boy and to get the details to stick. So Biden’s willing.” #####c ##### # neo-nazism in ukraine and russia #####o # neo-nazism in the wagner group picture of Dmitry Utkin with SS tattoo, SS rank tattoo, and Nazi eagle tattoo: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/936086275348394094/unknown.png 2016 December 9: picture of Dmitry Utkin next to Vladimir Putin at Heroes of the Fatherland Day, where he received an Order of Courage: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/935765638071320606/photo_2017-08-17_17-04-18_E5ikhbs.png picture of Task Force Rusich with a valknut: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/936092483094470678/unknown.png many pictures of Task Force Rusich with valknuts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/936097479244529714/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/936097487561830440/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/936097494914465853/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/936097529127399514/unknown.png post featuring another rune: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/981788024692170782/unknown.png group posing with valknut: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/981798214225231882/unknown.png members of the group heiling Hitler: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/936101769845551134/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/936102814051106816/unknown.png # neo-nazism in the dpr/dnr donetsky people's republic 2022 April 5: DPR leader Denis Pushilin puns an award on soldier Roman Vorobyev, who is wearing a neo-Nazi skull and volknut insignia (typical of the Wagner Group affiliates Task Force Rusich): ^ Alexey Milchakov: different person: # neo-nazism in the azov battalion the Azov Battalion's publishing outfit Plomin is openly promoting neo-Nazi writings, such as Freda's "Disintegration of the System", which writes that "We have nothing to see with the mercantile Europe, with the Europe of plutocratic colonialism: nothing to share. We only have accounts to settle with the Jewish or Judaized Europe": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/935774510890766376/unknown.png the Russian far-right generally opposes Putin for moderation on issues like immigration; some supported Ukraine in the Donbas War: """Many Russian far-right nationalists have, perhaps to the surprise of many, been anti-Kremlin and opposed Putin’s rule due to their perception of his soft stance on issues like immigration, best seen in the annual “Russian March”. While a large portion of the Russian far-right was instrumental in fomenting and fighting in the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine, some factions of the Russian far-right actually supported the protests on Maidan Nezalezhnosti in Kyiv that mushroomed into the February 2014 revolution and have found room to operate within Ukraine. This included two of Wotanjugend’s leaders, Ivan Mikheev and Alexey Levkin. As Russian and Russian-led forces — including a sizable presence of Russian far-right nationalists, namely through the influence of Konstantin Malofeev and Eduard Limonov — began war in the Donbas in April 2014, some Wotanjugend members were among Russian far-right nationalists who came to Ukraine to fight with far-right pro-Ukrainian forces, including the Azov Battalion. Mikheev and Levkin, along with other Russian neo-Nazis like Roman Zheleznov, came to Ukraine in late 2014; Levkin and others remain in Ukraine five years later.""" # far-right beliefs in ukraine: not common Svodoba, the political party succeeding the Ukrainian Nazi party (Social-National Party of Ukraine) and including Azov's political wing, received 10.2% of the vote in 2012: Svodoba, the political party succeeding the Ukrainian Nazi party (Social-National Party of Ukraine) and including Azov's political wing, received 4.7% of the vote in 2014: Svodoba, the political party succeeding the Ukrainian Nazi party (Social-National Party of Ukraine) and including Azov's political wing, received 2% of the vote in 2019: Svodoba, the political party succeeding the Ukrainian Nazi party (Social-National Party of Ukraine) and including Azov's political wing, is currently polling around 4%: # ukrainian government promotions of far-right: frequent Bellingcat 2019: in 2019, Ukrainian Prime Minister Honcharuk promoted the "Veterans Strong" concert and spoke at it, organized by S14 member Andriy Medvedko, headlined by neo-Nazi band Sokyra Peruna: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/935790553835143218/unknown.png Bellingcat 2019: in 2019, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy invited Azov Battalion leaders and spoke of them as "veterans" in discussing peace talks in the region: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/935791041473314826/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/935784583222419526/unknown.png """Another example of this trend was on display in early October at a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, when members of the far-right (including C14 leader Yevhen Karas) were invited to offer their perspective on the war in eastern Ukraine. Azov was also present, being the largest far-right group in Ukraine that also has a regiment in Ukraine’s National Guard. “Yesterday I met with veterans,” Zelenskyy said in early October, “National Corps [the Azov movement’s political party], Azov, everyone else.” A photo from the meeting shows multiple far-right figures in attendance, including C14’s Yevhen Karas and Dmytro Shatrovskyi, head of the Azov-linked “Veterans Brotherhood.” [....] However, why does Zelenskyy meet with multiple representatives of far-right groups — and, moreover, speak of them simply as “veterans,” discounting the vast majority of Ukraine’s veterans who have no involvement in extremist organizations? Why are there multiple members of far-right groups, including people who are openly neo-Nazi, on Ukraine’s Ministry of Veterans Affairs public oversight council? Despite the fact that these far-right organizations have negligible popular support and virtually nonexistent electoral power, they are over-represented among veterans’ rights groups, including in meetings directly with Ukraine’s President. As the veterans’ concert shows, these issues are symptoms of a much larger problem relating to the far-right’s exploitation of veterans’ issues as they continue to have success mainstreaming themselves in Ukrainian politics and society.""" Bellingcat 2020: US conservatives are fighting against LGBT rights in Ukraine: # ukrainian government infiltration/appointments of far-right: deep Freedom House considers far-right extremists like Azov to be a threat to democracy in Ukraine: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/935786006089707520/unknown.png Freedom House notes that known far-right extremists have received major appointsments to the police and military of Ukraine: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/935785631899074620/unknown.png Bellingcat 2019: the Ukrainian Veterans Ministry is dominated by far-right group members; this led an Azov battalion member to speak to a conference including the top US diplomat to Ukraine: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/935790030247571486/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/935790273571729449/unknown.png Bellingcat 2019: the Ukrainian government gave funds to an Azov movement linked Youth Corps for "national-patriotic education projects": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/935792711829688350/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # europe # #####o ##### # united kingdom #####o # brexit brexit has reduced british GDP growth by about 1% per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/544031668990771220/unknown.png # thatcher and neoliberalism Thatcherite Ideology, Housing Tenure and Crime: The Socio-spatial Consequences of the Right to Buy for Domestic Property Crime https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article/56/6/1235/2415095 [unformatted] gini coefficient: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640988307953811486/How20has20inequality20changed20to202015-1620IFS.png [unformatted] gdp growth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640988320566083584/unknown.png [unformatted] #####c ##### # poland #####o * PIS is Poland's conservative party: PIS is seizing control of the state media: : Poland’s president has signed into law a bill handing the conservative government control of state media, despite concern elsewhere in the EU and condemnation from rights watchdogs. [....] Under the new law, senior figures in public radio and television will be appointed – and sacked – by the treasury minister, and will no longer be hired by the National Broadcasting Council. Under the legislation current managers and supervisory board members of Poland’s public broadcasters will be fired with immediate effect. PIS is seizing control of the independent judiciary: : Lawmakers in the lower house of parliament, which is controlled by the ruling far-right Law and Justice Party (PiS), have passed a bill that would force 83 of the nation’s top judges to resign and will give the governing party control over who replaces them. In Poland, the Supreme Court is not only the final court of appeal for all criminal and civil cases, but also the body that rules on the validity of elections — which is exactly what concerns the EU and political opponents. PIS is trying to ban *all* abortions, even for safety: : It wasn’t until 2016, when the right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS), led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, introduced a bill that would have made abortion completely illegal that the women’s movement was able to break out of this isolation. Abortion is legal in Poland only in three cases: when pregnancy is the result of rape, when the fetus shows risks of severe damage or illness, and when the life of the woman is endangered. Unfortunately, even under these conditions women often do not obtain permission to terminate pregnancies, which leads them either to illegal abortions, in Poland or abroad, or to face serious risks to give birth anyways. Official statistics count only around 100 legal abortions per year in Poland; but, according to feminist organizations, some 140,000 illegal ones are additionally carried out. The PiS bill would have made abortion illegal even in these exceptional cases. Additionally, it would have criminalized not only women who sought abortions, but their doctors and anyone else who assisted them, allowing them to be sentenced to up to two years of jail time. PIS is trying to criminalize discussion of Poland's part in the Holocaust: : Under the guise of defending the good name of “The Polish Nation” the bill opens the way to criminalising anyone who seeks to reveal dark chapters of Polish history, such as antisemitic pogroms before, during and after the war. But this is a veneer. What is truly at stake is not Poland’s reputation, but Polish nationalist rightwing tradition. The ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) makes no secret of the fact that it is part of this tradition. The language and ideas of PiS leaders, as well as their policies towards refugees, minorities and political opposition, draw directly from the rhetoric and strategy of Polish nationalism in the first half of the 20th century. [It's already been used for this purpose: ] PIS supported thousands of far-right marchers with racist slogans under falangist banners: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/12/white-europe-60000-nationalists-march-on-polands-independence-day: Tens of thousands of nationalist demonstrators marched through Warsaw at the weekend to mark Poland’s independence day, throwing red-smoke bombs and carrying banners with slogans such as “white Europe of brotherly nations”. Police estimated 60,000 people took part in Saturday’s event, in what experts say was one of the biggest gathering of far-right activists in Europe in recent years. Demonstrators with faces covered chanted “Pure Poland, white Poland!” and “Refugees get out!” [....] TVP, which reflects the conservative government’s line, called it a “great march of patriots”, and in its broadcasts described the event as one that drew mostly ordinary Poles expressing their love of Poland, not extremists. #####c #####c ##### # # middle east # #####o ##### # polling on solutions #####o PCPSR 2018: among Palestinians [Jews] in the West Bank and Gaza, 43% [43%] supported a 2-state solution, 9% [19%] a 1-state binational solution, 9% [15%] a 1-state apartheid (of the other group) solution, 17% [8%] expulsion (of the other group): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1172299424395956264/image.png #####c ##### # israel polling: common reactionary beliefs #####o # preferential treatment for Jewish people: overwhelming support Pew Research 2016: among Jewish people in Israel, support for giving Jewish people preferential treatment is 79%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169160841644490762/image.png?ex=655464e2&is=6541efe2&hm=42e97e8daaa9f1d5e7c17fa335bd5ec62345769e1e42f5521f59776bf03eeec1& # god-given right to israel: overwhelming support Pew Research 2016: among Jewish people in Israel asked whether God gave Israel to the Jewish people, 61% say yes and 12% say no (+49%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169163083126673519/image.png?ex=655466f9&is=6541f1f9&hm=8d9074302681a78768d372100643a9a79f94984a28783f5be16ec8e8834e3d29& # expulsion of arabs: slight majority support Pew Research 2016: among Jewish people in Israel, support for expelling Arab people from Israel is 48% yes, 46% no (+2%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169161195203334214/PF_2016.png ^ Pew Research 2016: among Jewish people in Israel, support for expelling Arab people from Israel is 54% among West Bank settlers and 47% among non-settlers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169163108368003092/PF_2016.png # bigoted beliefs from general israeli public Israeli Democracy Institute 2023: among Israeli Jewish people, 12.9% think Israel "should take into consideration the suffering of the civilian Palestinian population" and 83.4% do not (-70.5%); among Israeli Jewish people, 47.9% think the IDF should "ensure that it is not breaking international laws and rules of war" and 45.6% do not (+2.3%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169438035193118740/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169438234980397086/image.png # homosexuality accepted: slight majority support Pew Research 2019: 47% of people in Israel say that homosexuality should be accepted by society and 45% say it should not (+2%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169165649617096744/PG_2020.png?ex=6554695c&is=6541f45c&hm=d0337e6b1e4e5e30fb97245992df10c21192895818e7682a89f540f49e99fd7c& # theocracy: strong majority oppose Pew Research 2016: among Jewish people in Israel, asked about making Jewish religious law (halakha) the state law for Jewish people, 64% oppose and 29% favor (-35%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169160854181257236/PF_2016.png?ex=655464e5&is=6541efe5&hm=08a8ac16a2abd2060598763570fa3150d22ae96a1a759a3db806aefec4ad01e9& ^ Halakha: #####c ##### # palestine polling: widespread reactionary beliefs #####o # religious freedom: overwhelming support Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, 73% say it's good that non-Muslims are free to practice their religion in Palestine (or bad that non-Muslims are NOT free to practice their religion in Palestine); 12% say the opposite: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169185743684521984/image.png?ex=65547c13&is=65420713&hm=7e1caeb1cf32c0e2d2d508b84d4f98d7ba0f4471650ac42e9fdefb41a8f0460f& # democracy: strong majority support Pew Research 2013: 55% say they prefer a democratic form of government and 40% prefer a strong leader (+15%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169186561066283028/image.png?ex=65547cd6&is=654207d6&hm=2f388ca7c73e29aa89c2044fede6b29d2856fe7e322af22bcd49ba4eaca79875& # violence against civilians: majority oppose Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, 40% say suicide bombing and violence against civilians to defend Islam against its enemies can be sometimes or often justified; 59% rarely or never justified (-19%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169169006687703171/image.png?ex=65546c7d&is=6541f77d&hm=c81ccb7c31b74c462211e268c0911009fee8c369d72699747910b83afd7191d6& # theocracy: overwhelming support Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, asked about making Muslim religious law (sharia) the state law, 39% say sharia should be state law for all people, 43% say sharia should be state law for Muslims only, 7% support sharia but did not specify, and 8% oppose making sharia the state law: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169170674070339664/image.png?ex=65546e0a&is=6541f90a&hm=a3d4a43ecf0c285c0624a6d2ddbd50d4a172d6c3bb5fcb0ca9fb40dd38c14773& Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, 54% say religious leaders should have a large or some political influence on political matters; 36% say not too much or no influence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169186906769215508/image.png?ex=65547d29&is=65420829&hm=770ad4c7ccd21789a58487240352d456544bd025a5f0fd14c4c05992f8d1209d& Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, 62% favor the death penalty for apostates who leave Islam; 29% oppose (+33%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169168383997132810/image.png?ex=65546be8&is=6541f6e8&hm=fb12871e82ef0ff45e544a796590f22292d3fad4e5c950e0d10defb4af26f304& Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, 21% say Muslim nationalist (Islamist) parties are better than other parties, 44% say the same, 29% say worse (-8%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169187600049914007/image.png?ex=65547dce&is=654208ce&hm=e6551331963f2bd1ba335d822afbb829e3c7e2ada08b2ccfff782d72c70d978a& # sexism: overwhelming support Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, 87% completely or mostly agree that wives must always obey their husbands; 11% mostly or completely disagree (+76%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169171404420296814/image.png?ex=65546eb8&is=6541f9b8&hm=a906e389bc8ccd2a9726a8f4fe4a3b97c36b8b42eea8487587b08135e03494a5& Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, 33% say a wife should have the right to divorce; 57% say not (-24%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169175020858261546/image.png?ex=65547217&is=6541fd17&hm=5f5310c12eabeea5018246ea5e3ca87660f7a2f2eddc1098dc6bd51f914ccee3& Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, 53% say women should have the right to decide whether they wear a veil; 35% say not (+18%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169175794392780850/image.png?ex=655472cf&is=6541fdcf&hm=239b4f535cf7de1806922493b1a74568bf4b4861cf2442e4b5538e596f8040db& Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, 51% say inheritance rights should go more to sons; 43% equally, 1% daughters (+8%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169170195621888060/image.png?ex=65546d98&is=6541f898&hm=6792ea470468389eeb39fdea89605218fdf0f0b43e4884321071ae5f14dd5f97& # sexuality: homosexuality and extramarital sex: overwhelming oppose Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, 89% say homosexual behavior is morally wrong; 1% morally acceptable (+88%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169169479561920582/image.png?ex=65546cee&is=6541f7ee&hm=3f5ef611a3bebbfc8e0d05576a8a1545f8a5ea464f24cae23e0ab13a46541d4b& Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, 0% say adultery is morally acceptable and 93% say not (+93%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169169903354396672/image.png?ex=65546d53&is=6541f853&hm=d77eb1172609691357360d5afcfc9108ff77eb1d80f7e92402f929681d81314c& Pew Research 2013: among Palestinian Muslims, 81% favor stoning people who commit adultery; 14% oppose (+67%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169168705167556618/image.png?ex=65546c35&is=6541f735&hm=c9d2d46930f2fe81b23558995a0224d8fa52931279db4c01b49196784e07f6fd& #####c ##### # aprtheid in palestine #####o # definition of apartheid The Apartheid Convention defines the crime against humanity of apartheid as “inhuman acts committed for the purpose of establishing and maintaining domination by one racial group of persons over any other racial group of persons and systematically oppressing them.” The Rome Statute of the ICC adopts a similar definition: “inhumane acts… committed in the context of an institutionalized regime of systematic oppression and domination by one racial group over any other racial group or groups and committed with the intention of maintaining that regime.” The Rome Statute does not further define what constitutes an “institutionalized regime.” The crime of apartheid under the Apartheid Convention and Rome Statute consists of three primary elements: an intent to maintain a system of domination by one racial group over another; systematic oppression by one racial group over another; and one or more inhumane acts, as defined, carried out on a widespread or systematic basis pursuant to those policies. Among the inhumane acts identified in either the Convention or the Rome Statute are “forcible transfer,” “expropriation of landed property,” “creation of separate reserves and ghettos,” and denial of the “the right to leave and to return to their country, [and] the right to a nationality.” # definition of persecution The Rome Statute identifies the crime against humanity of persecution as “the intentional and severe deprivation of fundamental rights contrary to international law by reason of the identity of the group or collectivity,” including on racial, national, or ethnic grounds. Customary international law identifies the crime of persecution as consisting of two primary elements: (1) severe abuses of fundamental rights committed on a widespread or systematic basis, and (2) with discriminatory intent. # human rights watch 2021 report HRW 2021: video summary of report: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1051227898377424956/Israel_Committing_Crimes_of_Apartheid_and_Persecution.webm HRW 2021: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1051230121102684201/202104mena_israelpalestine_separatingpalestinians.png # death toll B'Tselem: between 1 January 2000 and 30 September 2021, Israeli defense forces killed 10,287 Palestinians -- about ~460 per year or ~1.3 per day: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1043010143702499428/image.png United Nations (UN) Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA): between 2000 and 2022, COULD NOT LOAD Palestinians died from conflict-related casualties: #####c ##### # october 7 and the israeli ethnic cleansing of palestine #####o # deaths in detail Ministry of Health of Palestine in Gaza 2023 October 26: list of the dead: تقرير تفصيلي لضحايا العدوان اإلسرائيلي على قطاع غزة خالل الفترة )7 26- أكتوبر 2023( وزارةالصحةالفلسطينية [A detailed report on the victims of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip during the period (7-26 October 2023) Palestinian Ministry of Health] """كشف رقم )1(: أسماء الشهداء المسجلين وعددهم اإلجمالي 6747 )ال يشمل 281 من مجهولي الهوية(. [List No. (1): Names of registered martyrs, their total number is 6747 (not including 281 unidentified persons).]""" Haaretz 2023: list of names of the Israeli dead: Israel's Dead: The Names of Those Killed in Hamas Attacks, Massacres and the Israel-Hamas War # bigoted statements from leading israeli politicians: benjamin netanyahu Benjamin Netanyahu 2023 October 28: """And let me add, for the benefit of all of humanity: The entire people and all of the Israeli leadership, we all embrace them [the soldiers] and believe them. You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible. And we do remember. And we are fighting. Our brave troops and combatants, who are now in Gaza or around Gaza, and in all other regions in Israel, are joining this chain of Jewish heroes, a chain that started 3,000 years ago from Joshua ben Nun [Biblica Joshua], until the heroes of 1948, the Six-Day War, the ’73 October War and all other wars in this country.""" 1 Samuel 15:1-9: """15 Samuel said to Saul, “I am the one the Lord sent to anoint you king over his people Israel; so listen now to the message from the Lord. 2 This is what the Lord Almighty says: ‘I will punish the Amalekites for what they did to Israel when they waylaid them as they came up from Egypt. 3 Now go, attack the Amalekites and totally destroy[a] all that belongs to them. Do not spare them; put to death men and women, children and infants, cattle and sheep, camels and donkeys.’” 4 So Saul summoned the men and mustered them at Telaim—two hundred thousand foot soldiers and ten thousand from Judah. 5 Saul went to the city of Amalek and set an ambush in the ravine. 6 Then he said to the Kenites, “Go away, leave the Amalekites so that I do not destroy you along with them; for you showed kindness to all the Israelites when they came up out of Egypt.” So the Kenites moved away from the Amalekites. 7 Then Saul attacked the Amalekites all the way from Havilah to Shur, near the eastern border of Egypt. 8 He took Agag king of the Amalekites alive, and all his people he totally destroyed with the sword. 9 But Saul and the army spared Agag and the best of the sheep and cattle, the fat calves[b] and lambs—everything that was good. These they were unwilling to destroy completely, but everything that was despised and weak they totally destroyed.""" # bigoted statements from israeli politicians: galit distel Galit Distel 2023 November 1: """Any vestige of internal bickering is a maddeningly stupid waste of energy. Invest this energy in one thing; Erasing all of Gaza from the face of the earth. That the Gazan monsters will fly to the southern fence and try to enter Egyptian territory. or they will die. And their death is evil. Gaza should be erased. And fire and smoke on the heads of the Nazis in Judea and Samaria. Haron is also a Jew who will shake the earth of the world. A vengeful and cruel IDF is needed here. Anything less is immoral. Just unethical.""" ^ background: Distel is formerly the Minister of Information and a Likud member of parliament -- also, an autism denier: # bigoted statements from israeli politicians: meirav ben-ari Meirav Ben-Ari 2023 October 16, speaking to the Knesset: "the children in Gaza have brought this upon themselves!" """I did not plan to speak, of course, but I have to say one thing that should be clear: There is no symmetry. There is no symmetry. Me, my friends, ok, were on the way to the synagogue on the day of Simchat Torah, and they were shot at, only because they were Jews in this state. That’s it. And friends of mine – their children went to the party, to celebrate – seculars, religious, doesn’t matter who, only because they were Jewish, they were murdered. So there is no symmetry! And the children in Gaza – the children in Gaza have brought this upon themselves! We are a peace-seeking nation, a life-loving nation. There is no symmetry – our children are kidnapped over there!""" ^ background: Ben-Ari is a centrist: ^ background: this followed an exchange in which Ben-Ari rejected the symmetry between Israeli children and Palestinian children: """“Between children there is symmetry,” she said. Ben Ari went livid: “There is no symmetry!”""" ^ full video, comments appear at 2:30:00: # bigoted statements from leading israeli pundits: naftali bennett Naftali Bennett 2023 October 28: Gazans must stay in the southern half of the Strip -- or in other countries -- for 6 months to 5 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169446050579353700/image.png?ex=65556e81&is=6542f981&hm=61aeeffd0f435748c3f4e540253021139dd7948d5139835854d5f5b184379d06& """4. The residents of Gaza stay in the southern half of the Strip or outside the Strip until the end of the war: when Hamas disarms unilaterally and releases all the hostages. This, of course, according to international law, to preserve their lives. Countries around the world can take in the refugees—temporarily, of course—until Hamas surrenders and the war ends. Between 6 months and 5 years.""" Naftali Bennett 2023 October 12: argues that Israel has no obligation to provide food or water to Gazan people and defends this logic by pointing to Dresden: """NAFTALI BENNET: We're fighting Nazis. We don't target them. The world can come and bring them anything they want. I'm not gonna feed electricity or water to my enemies. We're not responsible for them. [.... crosstalk ...] **When Great Britain was fighting the Nazis during World War 2, no one asked, 'What's going on in Dresden?'** It was the Nazis targeting London and you targeted Dresden. So shame on you if you go on with that false narrative -- KAMALI MELBOURNE: And in hindsight, many people have re-addressed that kind of carpet bombing. NAFTALI BENNET: **Oh, I see! Now you're 'Mr. Clean!' Shame on you!**""" ^ Wiki: Naftali Bennett is a former prime minster: # bigoted statements from leading israeli politicians: isaac herzog Isaac Herzog 2023 October 12: """HERZOG: We are working, operating militarily in terms according to rules of international law, period. Unequivocally. It is an entire nation out there that is responsible. It’s not true this rhetoric about civilians not aware, not involved. It’s absolutely not true. They could have risen up, they could have fought against that evil regime which took over Gaza in a coup ‘d état. [....] REPORTER: You seem to hold the people of Gaza, the civilians of Gaza responsible for not removing Hamas and therefore, by implication legitimate targets. HERZOG: No, I didn't say that. REPORTER: But by implication -- HERZOG: No, I did not say that. I want to make it clear: I was asked something about separating civilians from Hamas. But, with all due respect: If you have a missile in your goddamn kitchenm, and you want to shoot it at me, am I allowed to defend myself? Yes.""" # bigoted statements by leading israeli military leaders: yoav gallant Yoav Gallant: announced a "complete siege" of Gaza because they are "fighting animals": """We are putting a complete siege on Gaza. No electricity, no food, no water, no gas, it's all closed. We are fighting animals and are acting accordingly.""" Yoav Gallant 2023 October 10: told soldiers they were fighting "human animals": """You saw what we are fighting against. **We are fighting against human animals.** This is the ISIS of Gaza. **Gaza won't return to what it was before. We will eliminate everything.**""" ^ Wiki: Yoav Gallant is the Minister of Defense: # bigoted statements by leading israeli military leaders: ghassan alian Ghassan Alian 2023 October 10: in an official statement from COGAT, Ghassan Alian called the citizens of Gaza "human beasts": """Kidnapping, abusing and murdering children, women and elderly people isn't human. There is no justification [for that]. Hamas became ISIS, and the citizens of Gaza are celebrating, instead of being horrified. Human beasts are dealt with accordingly. Israel has imposed a total blockade on Gaza, no electricity, no water, just damage. You wanted hell, you will get hell.""" ^ Ghassan Alian is the head of COGAT, which governs Area C in the West Bank: # bigoted statements by leading israeli military leaders: daniel hagari Daniel Hagari 2023 October 8: "the emphasis is on damage and not on accuracy": """עוד אמר כי הצבא מטיל מאות טונות של פצצות בתקיפות ברצועת עזה, והסביר כי "הדגש הוא על נזק ולא על דיוק". לדבריו, "אנחנו גובים מחיר מכל עמדה ומבנה של חמאס, עשרות כל טיס בכל מהלומה של חיל האוויר". בין היתר, צה"ל תקף מחסן אמצעי לחימה שנמצא במסגד, ובתים של פעילים.""""""He also said that the army drops hundreds of tons of bombs in attacks in the Gaza Strip, and explained that "the emphasis is on damage and not on accuracy." According to him, "We are taking a toll on every Hamas position and structure, dozens of every pilot in every Air Force strike." Among other things, the IDF attacked a munitions warehouse located in a mosque, and houses of activists.""" Daniel Hagari: head of IDF Spokesperson's Unit: # genocidal statements from israeli think tanks: misgav Misgav Institute 2023: [posted publicly] A plan for resettlement and final rehabilitation in Egypt of the entire population of Gaza: economic aspects: ^ context on Misgav: the Misgav institute is headed by Meir Ben Shabbat, former National Security Advisor to Benjamin Netanyahu: """The Misgav Institute is headed by former Netanyahu National Security Advisor Meir Ben Shabbat, who remains influential in Israeli security circles. The Institute’s former chairpersons and founding associates include Yoaz Hendel (chair 2012-19), a right-centrist who was Minister of Communications intermittently in the years 2020-22; Moshe Yaalon, former Defense Minister (note that both Hendel and Yaalon have become opposed to Netanyahu in the recent years); Moshe Arens, also former Defense Minister — and other top political personas.""" ^ context on Misgav: 972 Magazine 2023 October 30: the Ministry of Intelligence paid the Meshgav Institute one million shekels: """And this is not the only connection between the Likud, the Ministry of Intelligence, and the right-wing research institute: about a month ago, the Ministry of Intelligence pledged to transfer about one million shekels from its budget to the "Meshgav Institute", so that it would conduct research on Arab countries for it. If the "Mashgav Institute" was involved in drafting the transfer document of the Ministry of Intelligence, its logo, at least, does not appear on the document.""" ^ English translation: ^ alternate English translation: # background on israeli ministry of intelligence Wikipedia: Ministry of Intelligence of Israel: Israeli Ministry of Intelligence 2023: in a now-deleted website, summarized the role of the ministry: """The Ministry and the minister who leads it oversee policies pertaining to the operation of the intelligence organizations, the Mossad and the Shabak (Israel Security Agency), in support of the national security of the State of Israel, in coordination with and under the guidance of the prime minister.""" # genocidal statements from israeli think tanks: israeli ministry of intelligence Wikipedia: Policy paper: Options for a policy regarding Gaza's civilian population: Israeli Ministry of Intelligence, which is roughly similar to the Director of National Intelligence in the United States, had documents leaked by Mekomit [Local Call]: Israeli Ministry of Information 2023: outlined three options: Option A, to restore the sovereignty of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza; rejected as an "an unprecedented victory of the Palestinian national movement"; Option B, to create a new local governance of Gaza; rejected because it could "lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state"; and Option C, to expel the population of Gaza permanently into Sinai and various countries; described as the preferred option which will ""will yield positive, long-term strategic outcomes for Israel": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169441130560102420/image.png?ex=655569ec&is=6542f4ec&hm=eeb413eb3964605cb6e63e41fa746dcd02c94584c4adeed5b36991f49d441971& """5. The three options under examination are: a. Option A: The population remaining in Gaza and the import of Palestinian Authority (PA) rule. b. Option B: The population remaining in Gaza along with the emergence of a local Arab authority. c. Option C: The evacuation of the civilian population from Gaza to Sinai. 6. From an in-depth look at the options, the following insights can be derived: a. Option C - The option that will yield positive, long-term strategic outcomes for Israel, and is an executable option. It requires determination from the political echelon in the face of international pressure, with an emphasis on harnessing the support of the United States and additional pro-Israeli countries for the endeavor. b. Options A and B suffer from significant deficiencies, especially in terms of their strategic implications and the lack of long-term feasibility. Neither of them will provide the necessary deterrent effect, will not allow for a mindset shift, and may lead within a few years to the same issues and threats that Israel has been dealing with from 2007 until today. c. Option A is the option with the most risks; the division between the Palestinian population in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and Gaza is one of the central obstacles preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state. Choosing this option entails an unprecedented victory for the Palestinian national movement, a victory that will come at the cost of thousands of Israeli civilians and soldiers and does not guarantee security for Israel.""" Israeli Ministry of Information 2023: option C in more detail: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169441609943887944/image.png?ex=65556a5e&is=6542f55e&hm=75ba41e8b4eeba3f08bcb2114bf6965d3b3c0dd5ea8f01c17e814033cc2191d3& """Location and governance 1. Due to the fighting against Hamas, there is a need to evacuate the non-combatant population from the combat area. 2. Israel should act to evacuate the civilian population to Sinai. 3. In the first stage, tent cities will be established in the area of Sinai, the next stage includes the establishment of a humanitarian zone to assist the civilian population of Gaza and the construction of cities in a resettled area in northern Sinai. 4. A sterile zone of several kilometers should be created within Egypt, and the return of the population to activities/residences near the border with Israel should not be allowed. In addition, a security perimeter should be established in our territory near the border with Egypt.""" +972 Magazine Abraham 2023: document confirmed as authentic: """The 10-page document, dated Oct. 13, 2023, bears the logo of the Intelligence Ministry — a small governmental body that produces policy research and shares its proposals with intelligence agencies, the army, and other ministries. It assesses three options regarding the future of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in the framework of the current war, and recommends a full population transfer as its preferred course of action. It also calls on Israel to enlist the international community in support of this endeavor. The document, whose authenticity was confirmed by the ministry, has been translated into English in full here on +972.""" Netanyahu downplayed the publication as merely a "concept paper": """An Israeli official familiar with the document said it isn’t binding and that there was no substantive discussion of it with security officials. Netanyahu’s office called it a “concept paper, the likes of which are prepared at all levels of the government and its security agencies.” “The issue of the ‘day after’ has not been discussed in any official forum in Israel, which is focused at this time on destroying the governing and military capabilities of Hamas,” the prime minister’s office said.""" original document in Hebrew: translated version in English: # foreign evaluations of genocide New Republic Houghtaling 2023: Director of the UN Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights resigns, citing a "text book case of genocide": """[T]he current wholesale slaughter of the Palestinian people, rooted in an ethno-nationalist colonial settler ideology, in continuation of decades of their systematic persecution and purging, based entirely upon their status as Arabs … leaves no room for doubt.""" # war crimes Reporters Without Borders concludes that Reuters photographer Issam Abdallah and other journalists were deliberately targeted by the Israeli military while reporting in southern Lebanon: CNN 2023: refugee camp strike Jabalya refugee camp: # prior examples of US achieving restraint or condemning violence New York Times Stout 2002: White House Rebukes Israel for Attack, Calls It 'Heavy-Handed' """WASHINGTON, July 23 — President Bush issued one of his sharpest rebukes against Israel today, denouncing as "heavy-handed" the attack that killed a Hamas leader and expressing regret over "the loss of innocent life." "This heavy-handed action does not contribute to peace," said the president's chief spokesman, Ari Fleischer. "This message will be conveyed to Israeli authorities, and the United States regrets the loss of life." At least 14 other people, including several children, were killed in the missile attack that killed Salah Shehadeh, a founder and the top commander of Hamas's military wing. Scores of others were wounded.""" Reuters 2022: Secretary Blinken: Putin's 'brutalization of Ukraine's people is barbaric' -Blinken """Heat, water, electricity -- these are President Putin's new targets. He's hitting them hard. This brutalization of Ukraine's people is barbaric""" ^ speech: Secretary Blinken: Cannon 2014: on Reagan : https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169135429396725851/F9nwmFuWcAA3bei.png The Reagan Paradox The Conservative Icon and Today's GOP #####c ##### # october 7 and alleged antisemitism on the left: analysis of dsa role #####o # anti-Jewish bigotry by political beliefs Hersh and Royden 2023: among people age 18-30, 5% of liberals and 40% of conservatives say that Jewish people have too much power; 10% of liberals and 35% of conservatives say Jewish people are more loyal to Israel; 10% of liberals and 40% of conservatives say opponents of Israel are justified to boycott Jewish businesses: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169747908921393153/image.png """1. Jews are more loyal to Israel than to America. 2. It is appropriate for opponents of Israel’s policies and actions to boycott Jewish American owned businesses in their communities. 3. Jews in the United States have too much power.""" # leftist congressmembers: dsa + omar AOC 2023 October 9: I condemn Hamas’ attack in the strongest possible terms: """I condemn Hamas’ attack in the strongest possible terms. No child and family should ever endure this kind of violence and fear, and this violence will not solve the ongoing oppression and occupation in the region. An immediate ceasefire and de-escalation is urgently needed to save lives.""" Bush 2023 October 7: I strongly condemn the targeting of civilians: """I am heartbroken by the ongoing violence in Palestine and Israel, and I mourn the over 250 Israeli and 230 Palestinian lives that have been lost today, and the thousands injured, following attacks by Hamas militants on Israeli border towns and Israeli military bombardment of Gaza. I strongly condemn the targeting of civilians and I urge an immediate ceasefire and de-escalation to prevent further loss of life.""" Omar: Just as we honor the humanity of the hundreds of innocent Israeli civilians and 9 Americans who were killed this weekend, we must honor the humanity of the innocent Palestinian civilians who have been killed and whose lives are upended. """Just as we honor the humanity of the hundreds of innocent Israeli civilians and 9 Americans who were killed this weekend, we must honor the humanity of the innocent Palestinian civilians who have been killed and whose lives are upended.""" Tlaib: I grieve the Palestinian and Israeli lives lost yesterday, today, and every day. ""“I grieve the Palestinian and Israeli lives lost yesterday, today, and every day. I am determined as ever to fight for a just future where everyone can live in peace, without fear and with true freedom, equal rights, and human dignity.""" # dsa statements that clearly condemn anti-Israeli violence Cleveland DSA 2023 October 15: """The Steering Committee of Cleveland DSA joins Jewish Voice For Peace in calling on all people of conscience to oppose genocide in Gaza. We grieve the loss of Palestinian and Israeli lives this past week. At the same time we know that the war on Gaza did not begin last weekend. The only path to safety for all is an end to the occupation and apartheid.""" national DSA 2023 October 7: [NOTE: this was released on the day of the Oct 7 attacks, so it was said in the context of almost entirely Israeli civilians killed]: """We unequivocally condemn the killing of all civilians. It is imperative for international human rights law to be respected.""" ^ repeated by North New Jersey DSA 2023 October 10: ^ followup statement repeated by Northeast Tennessee DSA 2023 October 21: Pensacola DSA 2023 October 14: """In the wake of terrifying attacks on a music festival in Israel and the bombing of civilian infrastructure and dense residential areas in Gaza -- including apartment blocks and refugee camps -- Gaza is under a complete siege as Israel prepares for what looks like an imminent ground invasion of the enclave, while Palestinians in the West Bank face settler paramilitary forces.""" Arizona State University YDSA: """On October 7th, the Islamist political organization Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip independently of the Palestinian Authority based out of the West Bank, led a multi-faction incursion into the southern territories controlled by Israel and attacked civilian and military locations indiscriminately. Reports indicate that acts of rape and sexual violence have occurred, and that over 750 civilians, including Jews but also Palestinian citizens of Israel and foreigners, have died, while over 50 hostages were taken into Gaza. In the ensuing week as Israel has responded, the number of Israelis who have been killed has risen to over 1300 with over 3400 who have been injured.""" # dsa statements that condemn violence universally New York City DSA 2023 October 10: """NYC-DSA believes in peace, equality, and freedom for all Palestinians and Israelis. We deeply mourn the loss of life in the region and unequivocally condemn all hatred and the killing of all civilians. Our sympathy and condolences go out to those who have lost loved ones or have loved ones in harm’s way.""" Chicago DSA 2023 October 13: """There is no justification for violence against civilians, and there is no justification for collective punishment and apartheid.""" Denver DSA 2023 October 14: """Bloodshed is a universal tragedy. But under apartheid and occupation, some lives are deemed more precious than others. The negative blowback of apartheid should come as no shock; people who are oppressed will perpetually seek ways to free themselves from that oppression. The murder of Palestinians has been a systemically invisibilized occurrence for decades. When Palestinians quietly suffer the daily violence inflicted on them, the West calls that “peace”. Denver DSA recognizes that the only true and lasting peace must be predicated on liberation from occupation, and it is towards that goal that we resolve ourselves today.""" Madison DSA 2023 October 21: """We grieve the thousands of lives that have been and will be lost and upended in the current conflict. There is one, and only one way to end the violence: End the apartheid. End the Israeli government’s occupation. End the genocide. Support the liberation of the Palestinian people.""" Detroit DSA 2023 October 13: """Detroit DSA is proud of our chapter member Rashida Tlaib. She is strongly committed to peace, justice, and ending the cycle of violence that has claimed the lives of both Israeli and Palestinian civilians. Unlike the majority of Congresspeople in both parties, she doesn’t take corporate money or carry water for lobbyists. For this, she will always be deeply unpopular with corporations, capitalists, and the politicians who do their bidding in Washington.""" DSA Libertarian Socialist Caucus: """We mourn the deaths of all civilians killed in this conflict, including the murder of more than 200 Palestinians in 2022, and another 200+ prior to October this year. We hold the Israeli ethnostate entirely responsible.""" West Suburban Illinois DSA 2023 October 18: Northeast Pennsylvania 2023 October 21: """We do not endorse hatred or violence against Jewish people because of their religion. We want the killing to end, for Palestinians to return home, and for real democracy to flourish. We condemn all proven cases of murder.""" # dsa statements that do not explicitly condemn violence Boston DSA 2023 October 8: """Boston DSA stands with Palestine. Israel has long subjected Palestinians to apartheid, military occupation, open-air prison conditions & other atrocities. We must fight to end US support (military or otherwise) for Israel. From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free""" San Francisco DSA 2023 October 9: """DSA SF stands in solidarity with Palestinians in their struggle for decolonization. We condemn Israel’s ongoing occupation and the apartheid regime under which Palestinians are forced to live in dehumanizing conditions; and we further condemn the US’s continued funding and support of Israel’s decades-long colonization of Palestine. Violent oppression inevitably produces resistance. Socialists support the Palestinian people’s, and all people’s, right to resist and fight for their own liberation. This weekend’s events are no different. Decolonization is the only path towards peace.""" ^ San Francisco DSA 2023 Novembre 9: Greater Baltimore DSA 2023 October 9: """GBDSA is unwavering in our solidarity with the people of Palestine in their decades-long fight to end the occupation and obtain national liberation. We urge everyone to take a stand against apartheid Israel in this turbulent time.""" Grand Rapids DSA 2023 October 18: """The Israeli government has openly called for the forced displacement of 1.1 million Palestinians living in Gaza. The defense minister has referred to Palestinians as “animals.” This is the language of genocide. In the face of the imminent ethnic cleansing of over a million people, the US State Department has actively rejected calls for a ceasefire and an end to the violence. This is more than just complicity. The Biden administration is actively supporting the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. As democratic socialists, we demand that no money be given to fuel a massacre.""" Kansas City DSA 2023 October 7: """Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable. Solidarity to the People of Palestine against the inhumane Israeli apartheid state.""" Twin Cities DSA 2023 October 9: """We, the Twin Cities chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, are also resolved. We are resolved in our fight to support the efforts of Palestinians, in Palestine and in the diaspora, in their efforts to free their people. Just as Palestinians took to the streets after George Floyd was murdered, we are resolved to show the same solidarity in defense of Palestinian liberation.""" ^ Twin Cities DSA 2023 October 12: explicitly condemns attacks on civilians by Hamas: """We strongly condemn attacks on civilians by Hamas. In our previous statement, we made a conscious choice to center the lives of oppressed people in Palestine; Palestinians have suffered under colonial violence and apartheid for decades. However, not mentioning the mass death and kidnapping of Israeli civilians instead gave the impression that we were unconcerned about the tragic civilian casualties that have occurred as a result of Saturday’s attacks. This is not the case, but we recognize that the impact of our statement is more important than our intent.""" Towson DSA 2023 November 2: """Zionism is fundamentally a racist project causing the death and oppression of Palestinians. As socialists, we hold firm in our values of anti-imperialism. What we are witnessing now is the highest form of capitalism and oppression.""" Salt Lake DSA 2023 October 10: """“When we revolt it’s not for a particular culture. We revolt simply because, for many reasons, we can no longer breathe.” – Frantz Fanon The Salt Lake Chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America stands in unwavering solidarity with the people of Palestine in their decades long fight for national liberation and urges the people of Utah and the United States to stand up against settler-colonial, Zionist apartheid.""" Salem DSA 2023 October 11: """Salem DSA stands in unwavering solidarity with Palestine. We affirm the calls for an end to Israeli apartheid and the deliberate project of genocide, occupation, and ethnic cleansing against the Palestinian people.""" Orlando DSA 2023 October 11: """This week's events in Palestine demonstrate that despite Israel's best efforts to stifle Palestinian resistance, no cage goes unchallenged. As we witness Palestinians in Gaza break through the wall holding more than two million people captive for the past 16 years, and Israel's subsequent indiscriminate bombing of the coastal enclave, it is critical that we acknowledge the true root cause of this week's violence. It is Israel's occupation, apartheid policies, and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian people over 75 years that is the source of all violence.""" # dsa statements that plausibly endorsed the violence Worcester DSA 2023 October 8: """From the river to the sea, we unapologetically support Palestine's struggle for liberation from Zionist occupation and colonization.""" Inland Empire DSA 2023 October 21: """Inland Empire DSA unapologetically believes that the Palestinian people, like all oppressed people, have a right to meet their own oppression with resistance and struggle. We place the blame for the decades of violence on the government of Israel. The United States, and its complicit allies, must also be held accountable for fully endorsing, enabling and encouraging these atrocities committed by Israel.""" Houston DSA 2023 October 13: """In the face of over 75 years of settler-colonial violence and genocide, the will and spirit of the Palestinian resistance burns brighter than ever. The state of Israel has ethnically cleansed Palestinians from their land, forced them into open-air prisons of over 2 million people like Gaza, enforced a regime of apartheid, and sought to control and dominate every aspect of their existence. And yet, never once has the flame of resistance wavered or died out; from ‘48 to ‘23, and into eternity, Palestinians have passed that flame from generation to generation, from Gaza to the West Bank, from Falastin to the diaspora. Houston DSA stands in unflinching solidarity with the cause of Palestinian liberation. We will work tirelessly to build our capacity to fight in Houston and nationally to end any and all support from the “U.S.” for the colonial, apartheid state of Israel. As socialists, we understand that the “U.S.” itself was built on the genocide of the indigenous peoples of this land, and we uphold their calls for “Land Back”, just as we now uphold Palestinians’ call for the “Right of Return”; we understand that the violence and brutality we see along the “U.S.” southern border is intimately linked to the borders that surround Gaza and the West bank, that the kids in cages on the Rio Grande are the kids in cages in occupied Palestine, and we vow to tear down every last border wall; we understand that the tactics and technology of military occupation used against Palestinians are being shared overseas and used against poor, working class, black and brown peoples in the “U.S.”, and we vow to fight for the abolition of police and systems of incarceration; we understand that the struggle for Palestinian liberation is the struggle for our liberation. We call on all DSA chapters, our national organization, and our electeds, to hold ourselves to a higher standard, and meet the moment. Now is not the time to cower and equivocate- stand proudly and with dignity, with the cause of Palestinian liberation, decolonization, internationalism, and anti-imperialism; stand with the Palestinian grassroots and find within yourselves that same flame of resistance; stand resolved to proclaim “From the River to the Sea, Palestine will be free!”.""" Long Beach DSA 2023 October 10: """There is no symmetry between the Palestinian people’s struggle and the genocide being carried out by the Zionist terror state. This cannot stand. We as DSA Long Beach call on workers, socialists, communists, and progressives across the world to commit to solidarity with Palestine—full stop. We express our unequivocal support for the Palestinian liberation movement, and urge you to do the same. The people of Palestine have every right to national liberation, to enjoy freedom, safety, and wellbeing on their own homeland.""" # dsa statements that endorsed violence North Carolina Triangle DSA 2023 October 7: """Decolonial struggle is neither a metaphor nor a dinner party. We mourn the innocents lost, and pray for a day the Zionist entity falls. We have endorsed the Free Palestine Rally at Moore Square.""" Connecticut DSA 2023 October 8: """Yesterday, the Palestinian resistance launched an unprecedented anti-colonial struggle. Despite 75 years of occupation, Palestinians are standing tall against apartheid. On Indigenous Peoples Day, we are gathering in solidarity on the New Haven Green. No peace on stolen land!""" #####c #####c ##### # # fascist countries # #####o ##### # fascists were anti-socialists: nazi rhetoric #####o # But weren't the Nazis the National **Socialist** German **Workers'** Party? Yes. However, as he stated in this 1938 speech, Hitler was **explicitly** not a socialist in the "economically left and socially left" sense ( ): """'Socialist' I define from the word 'social; meaning in the main ‘social equity’. A Socialist is one who serves the common good without giving up his individuality or personality or the product of his personal efficiency. **Our adopted term 'Socialist' has nothing to do with Marxian Socialism. Marxism is anti-property; true socialism is not.** Marxism places no value on the individual, or individual effort, of efficiency; true Socialism values the individual and encourages him in individual efficiency, at the same time holding that his interests as an individual must be in consonance with those of the community. All great inventions, discoveries, achievements were first the product of an individual brain. It is charged against me that I am against property, that I am an atheist. Both charges are false.""" # But weren't the Nazis the National **Socialist** German **Workers'** Party? Yes. However, as he stated in this 1935 speech, Hitler saw many differences between his ideology and the USSR's: """National Socialism is a doctrine that has reference exclusively to the German people. Bolshevism lays stress on international mission.""""""National Socialism fights for the reconciliation and consequent adjustment of the differences in life and the union of all for common benefits. Bolshevism teaches the overcoming of an alleged class rule by the dictatorship of the power of a different class.""""""As National Socialists, our hearts are full with admiration and respect for the great achievements of the past, not only in our own people but also far beyond. We are happy to belong to an European cultural community that has so tremendously embossed today's world with a stamp of its mind. Bolshevism rejects this cultural achievement of mankind, claiming that has found the beginning of the real cultural and human history in the year of birth of Marxism.""""""We, National Socialists, do not want to be of the same opinion as our church organizations in this or that organizational question. But we never want a lack of belief in religion or any faith, and do not wish that our churches become club-houses or cinemas. Bolshevism teaches the godlessness and acts accordingly.""""""We National Socialists see in private property a higher level of human economic development that according to the differences in performance controls the management of what has been accomplished enabling and guaranteeing the advantage of a higher standard of living for everyone. Bolshevism destroys not only private property but also private initiative and the readiness to shoulder responsibility.""" # But didn't the Nazis and the socialists both use red? The Nazi flag colors (black, white, red) come from the imperial German flag colors (black, white, red). For example, the nationalist imperial German propaganda song "Stolz weht die Flagge schwarz-weiß-rot" (The Flag Proudly Waves Black-White-Red) was explicitly mirrored in Nazi propaganda song "Deutschland du Land der Treue" in the lines "Hakenkreuzfahnen schwarz, weiss, und rot" (Swastika flags black, white, and red) . Moreover, the use of red in Nazi propaganda was an intentional anti-left tactic, as Hitler stated in Mein Kampf, 1922, Book 2 Vol 2 p. 270: "We chose red for our posters after particular and careful deliberation, our intention being to irritate the Left, so as to arouse their attention and tempt them to come to our meetings -- if only in order to break them up -- so that in this way we got a chance of talking to the people." #####c ##### # fascists were capitalists (class collaborationists) #####o # nazi germany anti-worker effects: national income share under Nazi Germany (deffo socialists btw), the capital share of national income increased from .25 pre-depression to .325; under FDR (halfhearted social democrat) it decreased from .325 pre-depression to .225 https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642001954058272781/unknown.png between 1932 and 1938, income from wages and salaries grew 66% while income from capital grew 146% (220% faster) https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/561317922379661325/unknown.png # nazi germany anti-worker effects: income inequality under Nazi Germany (deffo socialists btw), the top 1% share of fiscal income increased from 11% to 16% (1933-1938); under FDR (halfhearted social democrat) it remained at 16% (1932-1938) or decreased to 12% (1932-1944): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642016699415003171/unknown.png # nazi germany anti-worker effects: wages Broadberry Burhop 2009: between 1932 and 1944, nominal weekly wages increased just 44% in Germany compared to 63% in Britain and 160% in the USA: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/561321423231254559/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/561322311333183508/unknown.png between 1932 and 1938, real wages barely moved in Germany and Britain; in the USA, real wages increased 50%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/561322886325993482/unknown.png hourly wages *declined* for both skilled and unskilled workers from the Great Depression to the Nazi era: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/561317904319119362/unknown.png # nazi germany anti-worker effects: disoosable income even more than wages, take-home pay declined under Nazi Germany: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/561317938200707072/unknown.png # national socialist people's welfare because the Nazis consolidated local and state programs, they did increase the federal German budget for social spending: In three budgetary years, the funds required by Germany's social welfare programs had more than doubled from 640.4 million Reichmarks in 1938 to 1.395 billion Reichmarks by 1941.[12] # fascist italy: capitalist winners, labor losers italy reduced wages (and utterly failed to replicate FDR's success): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/570334413787889677/unknown.png President Roosevelt, as well as raising prices to favor industrialists, also increased workers’ bargaining power and, therefore, their wages. The Fascist government, on the contrary, being more attentive to industrialists’ concerns, on the one hand fought the drop in consumer prices, but on the other, abolished most of the workers’ bargaining power and intervened systematically in cutting wages. When you're done reading the intro (from the draft version, not the published version), you should read Section III, which explicitly discusses these contrasts, or my quote above, from the conclusion in Section IV. # But didn't the Nazis seize control of industry? Yes, but this fact must be contextualized. The Nazis arose during the Great Depression. During this time, **all** Western nations (including the Nazis) used some nationalization and regulation to stablize their economies and later to prepare for war. However, the Nazis **privatized** previously-nationalized industries. (In fact, the term "privatization" was coined to describe Nazi economic policies.) Bel 2006: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084893171630223482/image.png The Coining of “Privatization” and Germany’s National Socialist Party Bel 2009: while major Western capitalist countries were nationalizing major firms, the Nazis were privatizing them: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1084891164869664808/image.png Against the mainstream: Nazi privatization in 1930s Germany """The Great Depression spurred State ownership in Western capitalist countries. Germany was no exception; the last governments of the Weimar Republic took over firms in diverse sectors. **Later, the Nazi regime transferred public ownership and public services to the private sector. In doing so, they went against the mainstream trends in the Western capitalist countries, none of which systematically reprivatized firms during the 1930s.** Privatization in Nazi Germany was also unique in transferring to private hands the delivery of public services previously provided by government. The firms and the services transferred to private ownership belonged to diverse sectors. **Privatization was part of an intentional policy with multiple objectives and was not ideologically driven.** As in many recent privatizations, particularly within the European Union, strong financial restrictions were a central motivation. In addition, privatization was used as a political tool to enhance support for the government and for the Nazi Party.""" # But didn't the Fascists seize control of industry? No. In fact, Fascist Italy engaged in the first large-scale privatization in modern Western history: As Germa Bel writes: "Italy’s first Fascist government applied a large-scale privatization policy between 1922 and 1925. The government privatized the state monopoly of match sale, eliminated the State monopoly on life insurances, sold most of the State-owned telephone networks and services to private firms, reprivatized the largest metal machinery producer, and awarded concessions to private firms to build and operate motorways. These interventions represent one of the earliest and most decisive privatization episodes in the Western world. While ideological considerations may have had a certain influence, privatization was used mainly as a political tool to build confidence among industrialists and to increase support for the government and the Partito Nazionale Fascista. Privatization also contributed to balancing the budget, which was the core objective of Fascist economic policy in its first phase." # But didn't the Nazis control industry indirectly and destroy private property? Yes and no. The Nazis arose during the Great Depression. During this time, **all** Western nations (including the Nazis) used some nationalization and regulation to stablize their economies and later to prepare for war. However, the Nazis believed that private businesses were more efficient than state planning. Businesses were heavily involved in the Nazis' planning processes: Buchheim Scherner 2006: within the limits of Nazi control, firms retained substantial private control (including to reject Reich-requested projects) and pursued profit-seeking as before: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1085291310539341975/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1085291100505391114/image.png The Role of Private Property in the Nazi Economy: The Case of Industry """Private property in the industry of the Third Reich is often considered a mere nominal provision without much substance. However, that is not correct, because **firms, despite the rationing and licensing activities of the state, still had ample scope to devise their own production and investment profiles.** Even regarding war-related projects, freedom of contract was generally respected; instead of using power, the state offered firms a number of contract options to choose from. **There were several motives behind this attitude of the regime, among them the conviction that private property provided important incentives for increasing efficiency.**""" # But didn't the Nazis set official wages? Yes and no. Prior to the Nazis, the Weimar Republic (under socialist influence) created collective wage agreements across industries in hopes of preventing "cut-throat" competition for labor. In contrast, the Nazi official wage rates were far lower than Weimar wage rates, could be overruled (allowing lower pay) for individual companies by the DAF's "labor trustees", and disallowed the possibility of collective bargaining by the workers. # But didn't the Nazis create the "Labor Front"? Yes. The Nazis established the German Labour Front (Deutsche Arbeitsfront, DAF). To establish the DAF, the Nazis destroyed non-DAF trade unions as "leftist" and seized their funds . In name, the DAF was intended to mediate conflicts between businessowners and workers. In practice, the Nazis used the DAF to decrease the worker power and to trap workers in their current place of employment, as William Shirer notes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/561310446171324425/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/561313705271230473/unknown.png # But didn't the Nazis create "Strength through Joy", Kraft durch Freude? Yes. KdF was a large vacation program established to sell the working class on Nazism and to boost German tourism ; in practice, it was heavily involved in regimenting the leisure time of workers towards Nazi goals rather than allowing them freedom: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/561314617423298580/unknown.png # But didn't the Nazis create the "Peoples Car", Volkswagen? As Willaim Shirer notes, Volkswagen was a Nazi swindle: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640987769920815124/unknown.png #####c ##### # sociodemographic background of support for nazism: small business owners, small farm owners, professional class, and upper class #####o # rich were more likely to vote for Hitler Simon 2021: summary of book: wealthier districts were more likely to vote for Hitler, likely because they bought into the fear campaign against the Communists (and somewhat the Socialists): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976592303969931304/unknown.png """In Berlin, “the highest levels of support for the National Socialists came from the upper- and upper-middle-class districts.” Accounting for the Jewish vote and the Catholics who voted for the Center Party, Hitler’s Nazis commanded some 60 percent of the vote in those districts—nearly twice the national average. On the other hand, the lower-middle-class and working-class districts gave Hitler’s party a substantial minority of their votes, somewhere between one-quarter and three-eighths. The trend in Berlin was repeated in Frankfurt, Cologne, Munich, Hanover, Stuttgart, Nuremberg, and Mannheim, with slight variations. Again and again, Hamilton shows below-average support for Hitler in working-class districts, and higher support in upper-middle-class and wealthy ones. There were pockets of rabid support for the Nazis in rural areas. But what we see repeated in chapter after chapter of Who Voted for Hitler? is the disproportionate support for Hitler from the well-heeled districts, motivated by their sense that Hitler would be their weapon against Communism; and because the Nazis had also successfully nurtured a covert anti-Semitism among the upper classes. Working class-neighborhoods were split more evenly, drawn to the Communists or Social Democrats, not strongly anti-Semitic, though susceptible certainly to the Nazi’s organizing exertions.""" Simon 2021: haunting comparison: """A most impactful provision of the Versailles treaty, it turns out, was to drastically reduce the size of the German military, pushing out hundreds of thousands of young men, “providing these men with one very substantial additional grievance and then injecting them directly into civilian life,” as Hamilton writes. A pithy and breathtaking comparison might be drawn here with the decommissioning of the rebel army at the end of the only other protracted war of the prior century, which was America’s Civil War, and the rise of the Ku Klux Klan and other vigilante groups that followed it.""" Challenging the traditional belief that Hitler's supporters were largely from the lower middle class, Richard F. Hamilton analyzes Nazi electoral successes by turning to previously untapped sources--urban voting records. This examination of data from a series of elections in fourteen of the largest German cities shows that in most of them the vote for the Nazis varied directly with the class level of the district, with the wealthiest districts giving it the strongest support. Hamilton 1982: # economic impacts: unemployed Protestants voted Communist and Socialist-Centrist; self-employed Protestants voted Nazi ("petit bourgeois" and rural vote); Catholics mostly maintained their old voting patterns King et al 2008: groups shown below: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976583284760915988/unknown.png King et al 2008: high-unemployment and middle-unemployment self-employed (mostly business owners) Protestants (SHP, SMP) and low-unemployment domestic-worker (mostly agricultural workers) Protestants (DLP) were more likely to vote for the Nazis: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976584846644219974/unknown.png King et al 2008: high-unemployment, unemployed Cats (UHC) and Prots (UHP) and high-unemployment, blue collar Prots (BHP) were more likely to vote for Communists: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976585198827343912/unknown.png King et al 2008: among Protestants, the 1932 Nazi vote mostly increased due to conversion from the far right, the liberals, new voters; these effects seem mostly independent of unemployment; Catholics mostly maintained their old voting patterns, except for Liberals, who split almost entirely toward the Nazis (low and middle unemployment) or evenly Nazi and {SPD, KPD} (high unemployment): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976586795712122940/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976588306450116628/unknown.png # education professionals were more likely to have nazi membership Jarausch and Arminger 1989: teachers were roughly twice as likely as the general populace to join the Nazi Party; university faculty ("docents") were more likely to have joined the party before 1933, and young university faculty rushed into the party after 1933: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976595608896933958/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976595071929565205/unknown.png # education and nazi support Unger-Alvi 2022: among political elites, greater rates of university education correlate with greater support for the Nazis: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976612972501794826/unknown.png # petit bourgeois: complicated evidence, suggested solution Unger-Alvi 2022: half of the Nazi Party membership in 1933 was from the middle class; however, the voter base of the Nazis was likely mostly ideologically nationalists or farmers and petit bourgeois economically threatened by the Great Depression: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976599263163318312/unknown.png Unger-Alvi 2022: regional leaders (Gauleiters) and Reichstag deputies of the Nazis were mostly from the lower-middle, middle, and upper classes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976602364880502804/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976602386095304745/unknown.png Unger-Alvi 2022: Nazi deputies were fairly similar to deputies from rightist and centrist parties, but were unlike socialist and communist parties, which were dominated by working class electeds: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976602823494090772/unknown.png # political elites and bourgeois were more conservative and more likely to support the nazis Unger-Alvi 2022: political elites in Weimar leaned closer to conservatives, nationalists, and Nazis, which may have made them quicker to work with the Nazi party: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976597382726832198/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976597535588233246/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976605808135663646/unknown.png """Accordingly, this paper shows that a surprising number of early Nazi elites in the Weimar Republic were highly educated members of the German bourgeoisie.""" """sociological similarities between Nazi leaders and the democratic elites of the Weimar Republic may help us explain the fast transformation of the German political system into a right-wing dictatorship""" elites: more than 2000 German politicians, industrialists, diplomats, political writers, academics, high state officials, and important journalists # nazi protests Caprettini 2022: todo reread xxx #####c ##### # alleged military excellence #####o # eastern front as PhD historian Jonathon House notes, the Nazis were extremely unprepared for a war with the Soviet Union: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zinPbUZUHDE as amateur historian TIK notes, the USSR did not beat the Nazis with manpower alone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7BE8CsM9ds despite having a smaller economy and facing millions of casualties, the USSR outproduced and outfought the Nazis: Yet table 1 showed that the Soviet Union was not superior to Germany in overall resources. Although Soviet GDP exceeded Germany’s in 1940, German wartime mobilization and the deep invasion of Soviet territory shifted the balance strongly in Germany’s favour. In the most critical years of the war overall Soviet resources were only 70 per cent of Germany’s, and the increment arising from Allied aid compensated only to a small extent. It is true that Germany was engaged on two fronts. Taking this into account, the Soviet Union still maintained a bigger army in the field than Germany and outproduced German industry systematically in weapons other than warships # western front the Nazis defeated France and England mostly through luck and surprise rather than technical superiority: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWwLcykedcs #####c ##### # nazi apologism: soviet aggression #####o the Nazis had plans to invade the USSR: the Communists did not have plans to invade Germany: Historians have debated whether Stalin was planning an invasion of German territory in the summer of 1941. The debate began in the late-1980s when Viktor Suvorov published a journal article and later the book Icebreaker in which he claimed that Stalin had seen the outbreak of war in Western Europe as an opportunity to spread communist revolutions throughout the continent, and that the Soviet military was being deployed for an imminent attack at the time of the German invasion.[153] This view had also been advanced by former German generals following the war.[154] Suvorov's thesis was fully or partially accepted by a limited number of historians, including Valeri Danilov, Joachim Hoffmann, Mikhail Meltyukhov, and Vladimir Nevezhin, and attracted public attention in Germany, Israel, and Russia.[155][156] It has been strongly rejected by most historians,[157][158] and Icebreaker is generally considered to be an "anti-Soviet tract" in Western countries.[159] David Glantz and Gabriel Gorodetsky wrote books to rebut Suvorov's arguments.[160] The majority of historians believe that Stalin was seeking to avoid war in 1941, as he believed that his military was not ready to fight the German forces.[161] #####c ##### # nazi apologism: polish massacres of germans #####o # border incidents Under Operation Himmler (aka Operation Konserve) , the Nazis staged several "attacks" on German installations on 31 August 1939, including a famously false attack on a German radio station with concentration camp prisoners: These attacks were **not** carried out by the Polish government. # bloody sunday Nazi saboteur units (Abwehr agents) opened fire on a retreating Polish army and were summarily executed. In response, the Polish army may have engaged in disorganized mob lynching that killed up to 300 Germans. The Nazi propaganda machine instructed the press that they "must show news on the barbarism of Poles in Bromberg". After German forces took the city, they executed 1800-3800 Poles as "revenge". On 04 October 1939, Adolf Hitler granted amnesty for all crimes committed by German military in Poland between 01 September and 04 October. # schadewaldt report The German Foreign Office publication (!) by Hans Schadewaldt is commonly cited; however, it was written after war had begun (!) and it cites no evidence for the alleged 58,000 deaths of Germans in Poland after the German invasion : More than 58,000 were lost by the German minority in Poland during the days of their liberation from the Polish yoke, as far as can be ascertained at present. The Polish nation must for all time be held responsible for this appalling massacre consequent upon that Polish reign of terror. #####c ##### # holocaust: evidence for #####o # german documents 1941: the Jager report explicitly states that 137346 people, 135391 of them Jews (57338 Jewish men, 48592 Jewish women, 29461 Jewish children) were killed by the SS between 2 July 1941 to 25 November 1941: http://fcit.usf.edu/holocaust/resource/document/DocJager.htm https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642017625093963776/Map_used_to_illustrate_Stahlecker27s_report_to_Heydrich_on_January_312C_1942.png 1941-1942: numerous reports from the Einsatzgruppen document the killings of Jews: 1942: Himmler's Report 51, "Report to the Fuehrer on fighting against gangs", explicitly states that 363211 Jews were killed in southern Russia, Ukraine, and Bialystok district: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565387804062777354/Himmler_report.png 1942: the Wannsee Protocols outline Nazi plans for "the evacuation of the Jews to the East"; "evacuation" was a common metaphor for extermination originals: english: 1942: Document 501-PS describes the benefits and drawbacks of gas vans currently used for executions: 1942: a letter about "securing skulls of Jewish Bolshevik Commissars for the purpose of scientific research" 1943: the Katzmann Report documents the killing of 434,329 Jews in Galicia: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565893289505456139/unknown.png originals: translation: 1943-44: numerous reports by Odilo Globočnik document the deportation and seizure of goods involved in the Holocaust: document discussing various extermination-related experiments by the Nazis: # treblinka article about archaeology at Treblinka: yes, there have been archaeological studies of Treblinka -- using radar: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566328111348842525/unknown.png To address this issue, an historical and archaeological project began at Treblinka in 2007. Staff from the Centre of Archaeology undertook non-invasive fieldwork at both Treblinka I and II in 2010, 2012 and 2013 in order to identify the locations of the camp boundaries, mass graves and gas chambers; aims that were successfully achieved [2], [3], [12]. This work involved walkover survey, topographic survey (with DGPS and a Total Station) and geophysical survey. Excavations were also undertaken in 2013 which confirmed the location of one of the gas chamber buildings and identified a number of personal belongings. During this fieldwork season, and a subsequent season in 2017, the methodology described below was employed in order to further characterize the terrain of, and evidence contained within, both camps. yes, there have been archaeological studies of Treblinka -- using radar: The excavation of Trench 4 confirmed that the 22 × 15 m anomaly in the GPR results did in fact represent the foundations of the first gas chambers built by the Nazis at Treblinka (known as the old gas chambers), which existed at a depth of 0.85 m below the ground. [....] Dentures, and gold and silver teeth were also found along with a considerable amount of fragmented human remains, some of which exhibited evidence of burning and some that did not. All of these different types of material traces were commingled, confirming the nature of destruction afforded to the gas chambers in autumn 1943 and the heavily disturbed nature of the ground exhibited in the GPR results. # motivations in total, the Nazis received about $143-430 billion in assets alone from the extermination of the Jews: # the holocaust is not separate from Western civilization askHistorians post: The historical understanding of Nazism and the Holocaust as »accidents of history« or part of a totalitarian trend averse to liberal, capitalist development are part of hegemonic discourse of portraying the current capitalist order as the best possible of all worlds and thus making them out to be the natural and unimporvable state of things often, consciously or unconsciously, aimed at squashing any kind of resistance against Capitalist hegemony. Understanding Nazism and the Holocaust as linked to factors inherent in capitalism – racism, colonialism, imperialism – is act of challenging the hegemony on the basis of its historical narrative. By historically rigorously pointing to these explicit links, a direct or indirect critique of the status quo, which in its most extreme forms can bring forward the catastrophe of Nazism, the hegemonic narrative is challenged and a blow of resistance is delivered. askHistorians post: Within historiography of the subject, the interesting thing to see is that the first two I mentioned are pretty much dead as of now and nobody would use them anymore. Generational and paradigm shifts as well as careful examination of the evidence have left us with only the latter two that understand Nazism as a product of modernity rather than it aberration or it being outside of modernity. Totalitarianism also doesn't hold up to historical examination, which leaves us with a variation of the last explanation, which is also in my opinion the most convincing. #####c ##### # involvement of the roman catholic church in fascism #####o # history Guess where was the last Jewish ghetto in the world? As a hint, it's called the Roman ghetto. Guess where was the last place to ban castration of boys to produce singing castrati? As a hint, it rhymes with The Bapal States. In 1870, the Kingdom of Italy conquered Rome. For 59 years afterward, popes refused to leave the Vatican to avoid being seen as beholden to a state. They were called Prisoners in the Vatican. Guess who let the prisoners out? In 1929, the Pope signed a treaty with Mussolini establish the modern Vatican City. Lateran accords and Pope-fascist alliances: """With the Lateran Accords, the pope and the Duce entered into a peculiar partnership. Each saw himself as heading a “totalitarian” organization, a term they both embraced. It could have only one head and demanded total loyalty. The pope was eager to use the Fascists’ power to resurrect a Catholic state, although he was not so foolish as to think he could ever “Christianize” Mussolini. The Duce was eager to use the power of the Church to solidify his own rule, but in his view the Catholic clergy were to be the handmaidens of the Fascist government, tools to ensure popular support for the regime.""" # ideology: background A 1929 Guardian article describes the Vatican as sharing with fascims support for anti-liberalism, authoritarainism, and anti-socialism: """One thing seems to be sure – Mussolini has achieved a great diplomatic success, perhaps the greatest of his career. On this there is general agreement. His gain is absolute. Whether the Vatican's gain is so absolute, seems a little uncertain. There is evidently much Italian nationalist sentiment in the Vatican itself. In other words, the Vatican has considerable Fascist sympathies. Pope Pius XI is credited with much admiration for Mussolini. That the Italian clergy as a whole are pro-Fascist is easy to understand, seeing that Fascism is a nationalist, authoritarian, anti-liberal, and anti-Socialist force.""" here's how historian Giuliana Chamdes describes it: """In order to weaken the Soviet Union and the global appeal of communism, the Vatican agreed to a tactical cooperation with Nazi-Fascist forces in a number of on-the-ground campaigns. The Vatican often took the initiative in doing so, even as it increasingly distanced itself in doctrinal terms from the Fascist and Nazi project.""" the Pope argued that Nazi Germany was bad because it was pagan and totalitarian, very unlike Italy which was good because it was Catholic and totalitarian: """For the Vatican, it was becoming increasingly important to dierentiate between the two totalitarian states. Immediately following Mussolini’s visit to Germany, La Civiltà cattolica published a piece making just this distinction. People who equated Nazi Germany with Fascist Italy, the journal argued, “do a great injustice to the Fascist Regime.” Hitler was seeking to unify the German people under a new, pagan religion, its slogan the divinity of the blood and the soil. Mussolini was doing the opposite, unifying Italians under the Catholic religion. The two could scarcely be more different.9""" # ideology: anti-nazi the Catholic Church's disagreed with fascism about nationalism and disagreed with Nazism about the Jews, but they completely endorsed the authoritarian and theocratic elements of fascism. """Instead of following those Nazi and Fascist theorists who presented communism as a Judaic plot for world conquest, the Secretariat argued that communism was at heart Godless and atheistic: the latest manifestation of efforts to sustain the legacy of the French Revolution and remove the Catholic Church from public life. [....] However, the Secretariat’s attempt to assert independence from Nazi-Fascism was imperfectly echoed by its on-the-ground initiatives. In this practical domain, Vatican anti-communism became increasingly imbricated with the anti-communism of Nazi, Fascist and proto-Fascist forces.""" the Pope argued that Nazi Germany was bad because it was pagan and totalitarian, very unlike Italy which was good because it was Catholic and totalitarian: """For the Vatican, it was becoming increasingly important to dierentiate between the two totalitarian states. Immediately following Mussolini’s visit to Germany, La Civiltà cattolica published a piece making just this distinction. People who equated Nazi Germany with Fascist Italy, the journal argued, “do a great injustice to the Fascist Regime.” Hitler was seeking to unify the German people under a new, pagan religion, its slogan the divinity of the blood and the soil. Mussolini was doing the opposite, unifying Italians under the Catholic religion. The two could scarcely be more different.9""" # ideology: authoritarian in 1937 Pius XI wrote that we must restore "authority, order, and hierarchy" according to "the principles of the Catholic Church": """Fascist sympathizer Henri Bordeaux informed the Pope in a private letter, explaining how his personal biases might shape his literary judgments. Democratic governments, he noted, ‘lead people slowly but surely to socialism and communism!’ Instead, what was needed was a strong, nationalistic government interested in protecting ‘order and religious authority’. Perhaps – Bordeaux noted – some of these viewpoints could be encouraged by the competition announcement and play a mandated role in the selection process.50 Having expressed his ‘immense pleasure’ with Bordeaux’s recommendations, Pius XI agreed on the need to restore ‘authority, order, and hierarchy’, according to ‘the principles of the Catholic Church’. Because communists and liberal ‘individualists’ (qua partisans of democracy) did not understand this, prize-winning novels should certainly celebrate authority and the Catholic religion.51 [....] The Pope accordingly suggested that it would be best for the book prize to reward anti-democratic, authoritarian, and religious political thinking, but be wary of lending support to extreme forms of nationalism that might be damaging to the Church and dilute its claims to standing at the helm of a transnational anti-communist movement.""" in 1938, Pope Pius XII wrote that support for state totalitarianism was absurd, but not for the reason you'd think. he wrote that, "if there is a totalitarian regime – in fact and by right – it is the regime of the church, because man belongs totally to the church": """In 1938, Pope Pius XI addressed a group of visitors to the Vatican. There were some people, he said, who argued that the state should be all-powerful – "totalitarian". Such an idea, he went on, was absurd, not because individual liberty was too precious to be surrendered, but because "if there is a totalitarian regime – in fact and by right – it is the regime of the church, because man belongs totally to the church".""" # ideology: action the Catholic church explicitly justified state violence against communism, which it called "Civic Action": """The Catholic battle against communism was not simply a metaphorical one. During his unprecedented 1936 trip to the United States of America, Eugenio Pacelli received several requests of papal support for the use of violence in Mexico from a range of English- and Spanish-language clerics. In place of the Vatican’s network of civil society organizations known as Catholic Action, Pacelli’s interlocutors affirmed that Mexico needed ‘Civic Action’. They defined ‘Civic Action’ as the same ‘liberty of action against communism’ accorded ‘to Spanish Catholics’: that is, ‘armed defense’.77""" the Catholic Church actively worked with Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy to jam Radio Moscow: """In the increasingly polarized political climate of the late 1930s, the Fascist regime and Nazi Germany began to work more closely with the Secretariat. The Fascist secret police granted the Secretariat special permission to import over 50 banned publications to facilitate up-to-date coverage of communism’s real and imagined expansion. The Gestapo – having welcomed the circulation of the Secretariat’s German-language journal – likely offered similar dispensations.59 Additionally, the Secretariat finalized a complex three-way agreement in the spring of 1936 between Italy, Germany and the Vatican, regarding the joint surveillance and jamming of signals of Radio Moscow.60 [....] The German Jesuit Gustav Gundlach – no less than the figure to whom Ledo´ chowski had initially offered leadership of the Secretariat – worried that Hitler might gain ‘moral sustenance’ from the Secretariat’s actions. The Secretariat’s willingness to partner with the Nazis in particular might well have had the effect of ‘confusing Catholics in Germany and elsewhere weakening the moral influence of the Church’.62""" # ideology: 1937 encyclical Pope Pius XII wrote three encyclicals in 1937. at the same time: one about Nazi Germany, one about the Soviet Union, and one about revolutionary Mexico. at first, he was only going to critique Nazi Germany -- but the Vatican Secretariat of Atheism convinced him to critique the Soviet Union and Mexico as well. and in all three, the pope's critiques were strongest revolution and against atheism, while his critiques of nationalism were an afterthought: """Much has been written on Pope Pius XI’s triple encyclicals of March 1937, which addressed Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, and Mexico, respectively. However, few scholars have noted the extent to which the Pope conceived of the three texts as integrally interrelated, and none have commented on the fact that the Secretariat on Atheism contributed decisively to their drafting. In April of 1936, the Superior General of the Jesuits responded to the news that Vatican theologians were in the midst of writing a theological critique of Nazism by informing the Pope that it was more urgent to draft an encyclical condemning ‘atheistic communism’, given the Soviet’s ‘ever-more intense propaganda’, and the need for ‘Catholics and others to unite in a more energetic and better-organized resistance’. ‘Your Holiness will pardon my boldness’, Ledo´chowski affirmed, suggesting that Secretariat personnel would be ideally suited to composing said text.64 Pius XI immediately accepted the proposal and put the head of the Secretariat on Atheism to work.65""" Pope Pius XI actually watered down the 1937 encyclical on Nazism: """In November of 1936, the clerics responsible for the as-yet-unpublished theological critique of Nazism received the cryptic news that the Pope was going to ‘do something’ about their work,67 and in mid March of 1937 the Pope informed them that an encyclical ‘in preparation’ would supersede their efforts.68 When Pius XI issued three encyclicals for global consumption shortly thereafter, the work on Nazism was marginalized, as the theologians involved in the theological attack on Nazism noted with displeasure.69 Ledit’s reflections, however, figured prominently, as did the Secretariat on Atheism’s underlying message: while the Vatican could work with Nazi-Fascist forces, any form of reconciliation with the Soviet Union was impossible""" Jesuit involvement in anti-Judaism: """Father Tacchi Venturi became the pope’s personal envoy to Mussolini; the Jesuit wanted secret police to spy on Italy’s Jewish bankers and was fully behind Mussolini’s hammer-stroke nationalism. In 1938 the pope summoned Father John LaFarge, a New York Jesuit and author of Interracial Justice, asking him to “secretly draft an encyclical on what the pope considered to be the most burning questions of the day: racism and anti-Semitism,” writes Kertzer. “I am stunned. The Rock of Peter has fallen upon my head,” LaFarge told a friend. He ran into opposition from the Superior General of his own order, Father Wlodzimierz Ledóchowski, a Pole who harbored hostile views of Jewish people and insisted on providing two priests to assist LaFarge. Ledóchowski arranged for the encyclical to be watered down and worked with others to have it tabled as the pope faced his final illness.""" # holocaust: church antisemitism Pius XI told Mussolini that the church had long seen the need to "rein in the children of Israel" and to take "protective measures against their evil-doing": """As David Kertzer demonstrates repeatedly in this nuanced book, to be critical of fascism in Italy in the 30s was not necessarily to be liberal or a lover of democracy. And to be antisemitic was not to be unchristian. The Pope told Mussolini that the church had long seen the need to "rein in the children of Israel" and to take "protective measures against their evil-doing". The Vatican and the fascist regime had many differences, but this they had in common.""" the Jesuit publication La Civilta Cattolica, which the Vatican had editorial control of, published a famous 1922 article that falsely claimed 447 of 545 of the highest Bolshevik officials were Jewish, a justification that Nazis happily took up: """THE CHARGE THAT JEWS were the evil force behind a worldwide conspiracy against Christianity and European civilization had long been heard in the Vatican; the Jesuits of La Civiltà cattolica were among its most avid proponents. A feature article, titled “The World Revolution and the Jews,” had appeared in the Vatican-supervised journal in late October 1922, as the Fascists were marching on Rome. [....] A list of the 545 highest ocials of the Bolshevik regime revealed, the author claimed, that true Russians numbered no more than thirty. “Those of the Jewish race comprise a full 447”; the rest were a hodgepodge of other nationalities. In short, although Jews comprised less than five percent of Russia’s population, “this tiny minority today has invaded all the avenues of power and imposes its dictatorship on the nation.”33 The 1922 article has great signicance, for its argument would be used by the Nazis as a central justication for their anti-Semitic campaign. Taken up by Church publications throughout Italy and beyond, the myth that the Russian revolutionary leaders were virtually all Jewish—and not “real Russians”—became one of the most important, and deadly, rationales for government action against Europe’s Jews.34""" Pius XI told Mussolini that the Bolsheviks were Jews: """Finally the pope expressed his distress at what was going on in Russia where, he said, the Bolsheviks were intent on destroying Christianity. “Beneath this,” said Pius, “there is also the antiChristian loathing of Judaism.” When he was nuncio in Poland, he recalled, “I saw that in all the Bolshevik regiments the civilian commissars were Jews.” The pope thought Italy’s Jews an exception. He fondly told the Duce of a Jew in Milan who had made a major gift to the church, and of the help that Milan’s rabbi had given him in deciphering “certain nuances of the Hebrew language.”""" you might think they made a mistake and let that one little antisemitic article slip through, but you'd be wrong -- the very next month, the journal published an article titled "Jewish-Masonic Socialism Tyrannizes Austria". and David Kertzer documents that these publications went on and on into the 1930's: """The next issue of La Civiltà cattolica, the rst to appear after Mussolini came to power, carried news from Austria under the headline “Jewish-Masonic Socialism Tyrannizes Austria.” Following the Great War, the journal reported, Vienna’s nineteen Masonic lodges had formed a Grand Lodge. “All of its high functionaries, without exception, were Jews.” Their goal was to rule the world “under the domination of the Masons, themselves under the Jews’ power.” If the Jews in Vienna got their way, the journal warned, “Vienna will be nothing but a Jewish city, houses and belongings will all be theirs, the Jews will be the bosses and lords, the Christians their servants.” Austria, La Civiltà cattolica concluded, “will be absolutely the subject, tributary and slave of the Jews, this in short is the guiding idea of our socialist Jewish-Masonic leaders.”35""" historian Paul O'Shea: """There is no evidence that he [Pacelli] objected to the anti-Jewish rants of Civiltà Cattolica, which, as Secretary of State to Pius XI, he at least tacitly approved. The Pope or his Secretary of State gave the final fiat for the editorial content of the journal. There is no way that Cardinal Pacelli could not have known of the Judeophobia written in Civiltà.""" David Kertzer: review of various books: # holocaust: 1943 roman ghetto raid there is no direct evidence that the Pope ordered citizens to take in Jews and the Pope was mostly unaware of citizens actually doing so: """Little evidence supports the notion that Pius XII delivered a directive to members of the Catholic Church to help Jews during the German occupa- tion of Italy, argues the author of this article. That many such men and women did open their doors is well known, and several thousand Jews in Italy were saved as a result. The pope and his advisers knew that many Jews, along with many more non-Jewish fugitives from the Nazis and Fascists, were hiding in religious institutions outside Vatican City, and being sheltered individually in prelates’ residences in Vatican City itself. How- ever, they seem not to have been aware of the full extent of the rescue effort, nor to have ordered it initially.""" review of Thomas 2012 finds his evidence uncompelling: """Gordon Thomas’s retelling of the highly dramatic months 1943–4 after Rome was occupied by German troops but before its liberation by the Allies is composed in flash-back form, with vivid short episodes taking place one after another in various parts of the city. His main claim, however, that Pope Pius had a secret plan to assist the Jews of Rome, still lacks verification. Thomas provides no sources but relies on the oral testimony of survivors. He seeks to prove that the pope had a long affinity with the Jewish colony on the other side of the Tiber, and sought to assist them clandestinely by all possible means. His instructions were supposedly given orally. But while many Jews were given refuge in Catholic institutions, Thomas’s assertion that this was Pius’ top priority lacks substantiation, which may or may not be found in the Vatican archives.""" Gorsky: [unformatted] # spain: church actions: pre-civil war in 1931 Cardinal Pacelli, who would later become Pope Pius XII, echoed conservative Catholic conspiracy theories that Republican Spain was a sinister Bolshevik plot to conquer Catholic Spain: """The ground for the Vatican anti-communist turn was laid by Pacelli in the spring of 1931. At this point, Pacelli’s notes to the Congregation for Extraordinary Ecclesiastical Affairs become preoccupied with the newly proclaimed Spanish Republic. In particular, Pacelli used his platform at the Congregation to argue that the Spanish Republic was in fact a sinister Bolshevik plot to conquer ‘Catholic Spain’, as evidenced by supposed covert Soviet funding and Spain’s launching of an anti-religious campaign. There was little originality in Pacelli’s claim: in fact, he was simply echoing opinions he read in letters directed to him by a large number of Spanish bishops""" [unformatted] Fr Hilari Raguer: On the outbreak of Spanish Civil War the great majority, that is to say nearly the entire hierarchy of the Spanish Church, and nearly all the prominent among the laity, not only did nothing to restrain the conflict but spurred it on by joining almost en bloc one of the two sides, the side that ended by being the victor, and by demonizing whoever was working for peace. The Spanish Church [-] heated up the atmosphere before it started and added fuel to the flames afterwards. [unformatted] Mary Vincent: p.248 ch 8; p.121 """The Church was to become the most important source of legitimation for the rebellious generals, justifying the rising as a crusade against godlessness, anarchy and communism. Although such a close identification with the Nationalist cause was not to be fully elaborated until the Spanish hierarchy's joint pastoral letter of July 1937, there was no doubt that the Church would line up with the rebels against the Republic. Nor, at local level, was there any hesitancy. The only sizeable group of Catholics to remain loyal to the republic were the Basques.""" wp summary: Following elections in June 1931, the new parliament approved an amended constitutional draft on 9 December 1931. The constitution introduced, civil marriage and divorce. It also established free, secular education for all. However, anti-clerical laws nationalized Church properties and required the Church to pay rent for the use of properties which it had previously owned. In addition, the government forbade public manifestations of Catholicism such as processions on religious feast days, banished the crucifix from schools; the Jesuits were expelled. Catholic schools continued, but outside the state system, and in 1933 further legislation banned all monks and nuns from teaching. [unformatted] Victor M Perez-Diaz: p.128 """The church reacted to all this by mobilizing the mass of peasants and the middle classes and channeling them into professional and political right wing organisations prepared for by decades of careful organisation. The extreme right took upon itself the task of conspiring to overthrow the regime. The moderate right refused to state its unambiguous loyalty to the new institutions and openly flirted with authoritarianism.""" [unformatted] # spain: church actions: civil war the Catholic Church hierarchy supported Franco within two months: they let Franco use Church property as his headquarters, voted to support his side in the civil war, and called the Republicans godless: """Within thirty days of the outbreak of the war, Church leaders spoke in favor of the military movement. Shortly after that, Spanish Archbishop Pla y Deniel offered Franco the archdiocesan residence in Salamanca for his official headquarters. On September 30, 1936, Bishop Pla, in a pastoral sermon, said that the Church could not be criticized, because it has openly and officially spoken in favor of order against anarchy, in favor of establishing a hierarchical government against dissolvent communism, in favor of the defense of Christian civilization and its bases, religion, fatherland and family, against those without God and against God, and without fatherland.19 With only three (out of fifteen) dissentions, a “Collective Letter” endorsing General Franco‟s struggle in the Civil War was signed by the Spanish church hierarchy, though the letter did not endorse a specific form of government.""" [unformatted] the Roman Catholic Church legitimized the killing by the Civil Guard and the Falange as the defense of Christendom: """Cardinal Gomá stated that 'Jews and Masons poisoned the national soul with absurd doctrine'... A few brave priests put their lives at risk by criticizing nationalist atrocities, but the majority of the clergy in nationalist areas revelled in their new-found power and the increased size of their congregations. Anyone who did not attend Mass faithfully was likely to be suspected of 'red' tendencies. Entrepreneurs made a great money selling religious symbols. [....] It was reminiscent of the way the Inquisition's persecutions of Jews and Moors helped make pork such an important part of the Spanish diet.""" [unformatted] Montero 2007: """The Church, which upheld the idea of a 'National Crusade' in order to legitimize the military rebellion, was a belligerent part during the Civil War, even at the cost of alienating part of its members. It continues in a belligerent role in its unusual answer to the Historical Memory Law by recurring to the beatification of 498 "martyrs" of the Civil War. The priests executed by Franco's Army are not counted among them. It continues to be a Church that is incapable of transcending its one-sided behaviour of 70 years ago and amenable to the fact that this past should always haunt us. In this political use of granting religious recognition one can perceive its indignation regarding the compensations to the victims of Francoism. Its selective criteria regarding the religious persons that were part of its ranks are difficult to fathom. The priests who were victims of the republicans are "martyrs who died forgiving", but those priests who were executed by the Francoists are forgotten.""" [unformatted] pope complained to Franco about execution of Catholic priests -- clearly aware of massacres: """Today we also know that in December 1936 a telegram from the Pope complained to Franco about "the execution of Basque Catholic priests", in response to his protests, asking the Church to become more involved in supporting the uprising. There is no doubt, therefore, that the highest ecclesiastical authorities, including the pontiff, were aware of what had happened in Guipúzcoa, or of the attitude of the Francoist side towards the religious who did not participate in their political ideas.""" [unformatted] #####c #####c ##### # # historical countries # #####o ##### # british ireland #####o # irish potato famine (occurred in a free market) the irish potato famine occurred during a period of lassiez-faire UK domestic and trade policy: ireland was a net exporter during the famine: One of the most remarkable facts about the famine period is that there was an average monthly export of food from Ireland worth 100,000 Pound Sterling. Almost throughout the five-year famine, Ireland remained a net exporter of food. (31.) Dr. Christine Kinealy, a fellow at the University of Liverpool and the author of two scholarly texts on the Irish Famine: This Great Calamity and A Death-Dealing Famine, says that 9,992 calves were exported from Ireland to England during "Black'47", an increase of thirty-three percent from the previous year. In the twelve months following the second failure of the potato crop, 4,000 horses and ponies were exported. The export of livestock to Britain (with the exception of pigs) increased during the "famine". The export of bacon and ham increased. In total, over three million live animals were exported from Ireland between 1846-50, more than the number of people who emigrated during the famine years. ireland had previously banned exports during the 82-83 famine: When Ireland experienced an earlier famine in 1782-83, ports were closed in order to keep home grown food for domestic consumption. Food prices were immediately reduced within Ireland. The merchants lobbied against such efforts, but their protests were over-ridden. Everyone recognized that the interests of the merchants and the distressed people were irreconcilable. In the Great Famine, that recognition was disregarded. the "English blockade" and "three Turkish ships" are both memes: According to the researches of Brendan Matthews, one of these ships was probably Prussian: she was named the Meta, and her home port was Stettin, on the Baltic Sea. The other two, however, came from the Balkans, which were then still under Ottoman control. They were the Porcupine and the Ann – two rather English names for ships – and they apparently had English masters, for their names were Cleveland and Cloid (Floyd?) Nonetheless, they had sailed from Ottoman Selânik (today Thessaloniki, in modern Greece). All three merchantmen carried cargoes of wheat and “Indian corn” – cheap maize, one of Ireland’s principal imports during the famine years. This is a remarkable find – more so given the rarity of foreign commerce in small Irish ports in those days – but it is only fair to point out that the newspapers contain a strong indication that the cargoes of the Porcupine and the Ann were trade goods, not charity; they were consigned to local merchants based in Louth and Meath, who it might be expected would sell them rather than give them away. Speculation in imported corn, moreover, was scarcely unheard-of two years into the Great Famine; the Ottomans grew it, and the owners of the Porcupine and the Ann presumably knew that they did. #####c ##### # british india #####o # wheat exports wheat exports went up, not down, during the 1876-78 famine: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/701855091023413308/unknown.png unformatted: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/701849187880271923/unknown.png # payment for railroads Indian subjects paid for British railways, which mostly benefitted British finance: """The wish to avoid inefficient competition between parallel railway lines encouraged the granting of concessions to construct the lines as regional monopolies. Permanent Undersecretary of State at the India Office, Louis Mallet, had little fear of channelling profits from such monopolies towards “capitalists” rather than the general taxpayer. Mallet viewed a more egalitarian distribution of railway earnings as akin to the “nationalization of the land, and other communistic theories”.""""""By 1892-93, the Southern Mahratta was still earning a derisory return of 1.47 percent while Indian taxpayers were subsidising shareholders up to the minimum 3.5 percent guarantee. With the retum of more acute famines in the 1890s, the Southern Mahratta investment should have paid off in avoiding the vast human suffering and financial expense incurred in the 1870s. Sadly, nationalist fears about affordability of food were correct, and peasants starved.""""""By the previous year, the British had spent £160 million on railways against a paltry £20 million on irrigation.""" Indian subjects paid for British railways, which mostly benefitted British finance during Indian famines: """While railways had increased living standards through trade and growth, this had been accompanied by rising “rates and taxes payable,” according to testimony given to the 1898 Famine Commission.""""""During the 1896-1897 famine, officials channelled some 95 percent of Burmese famine relief toward the Meiktila-Myingyan Railway. Burma used this improved rail infrastructure to export more wheat to Europe, and extract improved domestic profits. The cheap labor and additional revenue which government famine relief provided for the Burma Railway Company could hardly have provided a better investment story for the hugely oversubscribed IPO the same year.""" # railroads helped exports Indian railways helped export grain: """Railways had decimated grain stores, and food was exported from Central Provinces (presumably by the guaranteed railway), so undermining self-insurance. Grain price rises in the Central Provinces had been fifty percent to one hundred percent in recent years. The “famine protective” Bengal Nagpur railway had accelerated price increases in areas like Sambalpur to the extent that locals could not cope, yet that same district showed net exports of food during the famine. The export trade brought new demand and pushed grain prices higher, while the depreciating rupee made Indian grain relatively cheap for English buyers.""""""In the Sagar (Saugor) district of the same “famine protected” railway region, the population was said to have increased by 18 percent, cultivable area by 48 percent over 1865-95, while wheat exports by rail increased from 40,000 maunds to 758,000 maunds over 1887-97.""" # railroads didn't protect against famine many Indian famines were not merely regional, meaning that railroads alone could not stop them: """Much of the justification for this emphasis on railways relied on the assumption that Indian famines involved regional shortages rather than a lack of food across the subcontinent as a whole. This was a controversial assumption by the late 1890s, when the worst famine conditions in documented history appeared to be afflicting India, despite the decades of investment in famine protective railways. Even a former consultant to the GOI’s [Government of India] state railways, Horace Bell, was prepared to challenge this assumption. Bell highlighted the 1898 famine commission observation that the food production of British India was in deficit of eighteen to nineteen million tons over the years 1896-1897, and suggested that “an even greater deficiency” must have existed in the more widespread famine of 1898-l900. Government-funded food imports could solve food shortages. Railways and the price mechanism would not be sufficient. In fact, the rise in grain prices during these famines failed to encourage grain traders to target the Indian market since export prices to Britain were still higher. Grain wages were required as part of famine relief due to the poverty of the unemployed Indian peasants. Only Burma, within British India, could offer substantial additional foodstuffs (grain and rice), but the shipping and rail costs from that region made the likely grain/rice price “prohibitive”.""" # control of india by britain map of British India, the Indian Empire, and the Indian residency system: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/701851930598834176/unknown.png """India (India, Pakistan, Bengladesh), Bhutan, Burma, Aden (ie, Yemen), Nepal, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Oman, Somaliland""" description of British India: """The Indian Empire is generally regarded as comprising British India and Princely India together.1 British India was ‘formal empire’ (colonies under direct imperial rule), comprised of seven to seventeen colonial provinces during 1858–1947, each headed by a British governor, lieutenant-governor, or chief commissioner. Princely India was ‘informal empire’ (protectorates and protected states or territories under indirect imperial rule), comprised of over 600 ‘native states’ and tribal territories, each with its own ruler or chief overseen by a British resident or agent.""" # 1858 government of india act passed by Parliament, the Government of India Act 1858 gave the Crown the power to appoint the Governor-General: """XXIX. The appointments of Governor-General of India, fourth ordinary member of the Council of the Governor-General of India; and Governors of Presidencies in India, now made by the Court of Directors with the approbation of Her Majesty, and the appointments of Advocate-General for the several Presidencies now made with the approbation of the Commissioners for the affairs of India, shall be made by Her Majesty by warrant under Her Royal Sign Manual; the appointments of the ordinary members of the Council of the Governor-General of India; except the fourth ordinary member, and the appointments of the Members of Council of the several Presidencies, shall be made by the Secretary of State in Council, with the concurrence of a majority of members present at a meeting [This power was transferred to the Crown by 32 & 33 Vict. c. 97.]; the appointments of the Lieutenant-Governors of provinces or territories shall be made by the Governor-General of India, subject to the approbation of Her Majesty; and all such appointments shall be subject to the qualifications now by law affecting such offices respectively.""" # 1861 indian councils act passed by Parliament, the Indian Councils Act 1861 gave the Crown the power to appoint two members: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/732415009996669030/unknown.png """There shall be ordinary members of the said Council of the Governor-General, three of whom shall from time to time be appointed from among such persons as shall have been, at the time of such appointment, in the service in India of the Crown, or of the Company and the Crown, for at least ten years; and if the person so appointed shall be in the military service of the Crown, he shall not, during his continuance in office as a member of Council, hold any military command, or be employed in actual military duties; and the remainmg two, one of whom shall be a barrister or a member of the Faculty of Advocates in Scotland of not less than five years standing, shall be appointed from time to time by Her Majesty by warrant under Her Royal Sign Manual; and it shall be lawful for the Secretary of Stata in Council to appoint the Commander-in-Chief of Her Majesty’s Forces in India to be an extraordinary member of the said Council, and such extraordinary member of Council shall have rank and precedence at the Council Board next after the Governor-General.""" passed by Parliament, the Indian Councils Act 1861 gave the Secretary of State (appointed by the Crown) the power to appoint three members: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/732415021476216923/unknown.png """It shall be lawful for the Secretary of State in Council, with the concurrence of a majority of members present at a meeting, and for Her Majesty, by warrant as aforesaid, respectively, to appoint any person provisionally to succeed to the office of ordinary member of the Council of the Governor-General, when the same shall become vacant by the death or resignation of the person holding the said office, or on his departure from India with intent to return to Europe, or on any event and contingency expressed in any such provisional appointment, and such appointment again to revoke; but no person so appointed to succeed provisionally to such office shall be entitled to any authority, salary, or emolument appertaining thereto until he shall be in the actual possession of such office.""" passed by Parliament, the Indian Councils Act 1861 gave the Governor-General (appointed by the Crown) the power to appoint an additional six to twelve councillors: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/732415027566477422/unknown.png """For the better exercise of the power of making laws and regulations vested in the Governor-General in Council the Governor-General shall nominate, in addition to the ordinary and extraordinary members above mentioned, and to such Lieutenant-Governor in the case aforesaid, such persons, not less than six nor more than twelve in number, as to him may seem expedient, to be members of Council for the purpose of making laws and regulations only; and such persons shall not be entitled to sit or vote at any meeting of Council, except at meetings held for such purpose: Provided, that not less than one-half of the persons so nominated shall be non-official persons, that is, persons who, at the date of such nomination, shall not be in the civil or military service of the Crown in India; and that the seat in Council of any non-official member accepting office under the Crown in India shall be vacated on such acceptance.""" # 1919 indian councils act No bill of the legislature could be deemed to have been passed unless assented to by the Viceroy. The latter could, however, enact a bill without the assent of the legislature: """(4) Where any Bill has been introduced or is proposed to be introduced, or any amendment to a Bill is moved or proposed to be moved, the governor may certify that the Bill or any clause of it or the amendment affects the safety or tranquillity of his province or any part of it or of another province, and may direct that no proceedings or no further proceedings shall be taken by the council in relation to the Bill, clause or amendment, and effect shall be given to any such direction.""" In 1919, an Indian legislature, consisting of a Council of State and a Legislative Assembly, took over the legislative functions of the Viceroy's Council. The viceroy nonetheless retained significant power over legislation. He could authorise the expenditure of money without the Legislature's consent for "ecclesiastical, political [and] defense" purposes, and for any purpose during "emergencies." He was permitted to veto, or even stop debate on, any bill. If he recommended the passage of a bill, but only one chamber cooperated, he could declare the bill passed over the objections of the other chamber. The Legislature had no authority over foreign affairs and defence. The president of the Council of State was appointed by the viceroy; the Legislative Assembly elected its president, but the election required the viceroy's approval. #####c ##### # feudalism #####o feudalism was more allocatively efficient (this does not mean more productive): feudal estates were relatively efficient because they were forced to use labor-time calculations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635212178894618624/unknown.png #####c ##### # rome #####o # maps: early huns, gothic migration: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709466208256393296/unknown.png sassanids: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709870500767334410/unknown.png gothic incursions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709468848490807346/unknown.png sack of rome: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709863656640479292/unknown.png spain: north africa: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709873531927658546/unknown.png overall: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709873644175753246/unknown.png # timeline * 350s AD: The Huns, a group of nomadic military polities, enter modern Hungary. * 370s: The Huns begin subjugating Germanic polities northeast of the Danube river. * 376: Two Gothic polities are resettled on the Roman side of the Danube. * 395: Emperor Theodosius I dies, leaving a 17-year-old ruling the East and an 11-year-old ruling the West. Huns rampage through Armenia and Turkey. Several pretenders, most notably Stilcho, rise up in the West. * 400s: The Goths resettled in 376 make increased territorial and political demands on Rome. Two Gothic polities and one Hunnic polity conquer land across the Danube. * 405: The Gothic king Radagaisus invades Italy with 20,000 fighters and 100,000 people. However, """Far from offering easy pickings, imperial forces in c. AD 400 still had such a logistical, technological, and tactical superiority over so-called barbarians that the Roman Empire was an extremely dangerous place to invade. Apart from the battle of Hadrianople itself, which was clearly some kind of fluke, the pages of Ammianus are to a large extent the record of one Roman victory after another, particularly on the Rhine frontier.""" * 410: The Visigoths sack both Ravenna, the Capital of the Western Roman Empire, and Rome itself. * 440: A Gothic polity, the Suevi, conquers almost all of Spain. # heather on barbarians and breakdown quote 1: """While the western Empire did not die quickly or easily, a direct line of historical cause and effect nonetheless runs from the barbarian invasions of the late fourth and early fifth centuries to the deposition of Romulus Augustulus.""" Heather can be summarized """If, because of the appearance of new military forces, the Roman state was no longer capable of sustaining local elites in this fashion (and hence of constraining their loyalties either), the whole point of attachment to the Empire disappeared. As a result, they naturally tended in such circumstances to look elsewhere for props to their position, notably to whichever barbarian immigrant group was currently most powerful in their own locality.""" expansion --> rome died: """These attempted expansions directly threatened the Empire's survival. If we reduce the matter to basics, the Roman state taxed the agricultural production of its dependent territories to pay for a powerful army and a political-cum-administrative establishment.2 Any loss of territory due to permanent annexation or temporary damage in warfare thus meant loss of revenue and a weakening of the state machine.""" # heather on prior immigration tribal immigration was previously dealt with by Rome by breaking them up and selling them off as slaves: """Immigration, even large-scale immigration, was not at all a new phe- nomenon; the Empire had a long history of resettling immigrants within its borders.2 Up to the 370s, however, this was done on Roman terms, or else resisted. In the 350s, for instance, the Emperor Julian only pre- tended to be willing to treat with some Salian Franks who had taken possession of Roman territory, to put them off their guard. He then followed up with the army and dealt with them as he pleased.3 The traditional policy towards immigrants, indeed, was thorough military and political subjugation followed by widely dispersed settlement in small groups, an approach obviously designed to minimize any security risk.4""" Rome attempted to enact the same policies during the Hunnic era: """Such policies were not abandoned in the Hunnic era for want of trying. In 376, only one of the two Gothic groups which crossed the Danube unsubdued - the Tervingi - did so with Roman permission, and then only because Roman forces were tied up on the Persian front. And even those Goths allowed to cross were then subject to general harass- ment and an attempt (again following standard Roman practice) to assassinate or kidnap their leaders at a banquet given by the local Roman commander. The Empire made a full peace with both groups only in October 382 after six years of warfare, during which several Gothic subgroups had been wiped out, and, until the heavy defeat at Hadria- nople in 378, where the Emperor Valens and two-thirds of his army fell on a single afternoon, imperial policy had been directed precisely to reversing the temporary asylum granted some Goths out of necessity in 376. Even after 382, the Empire was probably still looking to undermine the Gothic autonomy which it ostensibly tolerated.5 Nor did this one enforced modification lead to a more general change in policy. As wehave seen, Odotheus received short shrift in 386, and the Roman state responded aggressively to the crisis of 405-8. Radagaisus was killed and his followers dispersed; so many were sold as slaves that the bottom fell out of the market (Orosius 7. 37. I3 ff.). No concessions were made to Uldin, and many of the Sciri who followed him were again turned into slaves or individual tenant-farmers parcelled out to Roman landowners. Likewise, when an effective response to the Rhine crossing did eventu- ally emerge, one of the two Vandal groups which, together with the Alans, crossed the Pyrenees ceased to exist as an independent unit. In subsequent years, many Suevi similarly fell by the wayside.""" # ward-perkins: external invasion (summarizations by askhistorians, unformatted) Ward-Perkins: Rome fell to violent barbarian invasions. Additionally, he takes a materialist approach, focusing his analysis heavily on archaeological evidence, which he believes demonstrates that a substantive decline accompanied the collapse of the Roman state – the primary engine of the classical economy. Like heather, his analysis of the fall is largely monocausal, focusing on the Germanic invaders destruction of the Roman tax base. 'the disappearance of comfort': the decline in high-quality mass-produced goods being widely available well down the social scale; the disappearance of the impressive but fragile long-range trade networks characteristic of the empire; the greatly reduced scale and more primitive style of what little public building (for example, churches) was attempted; the general replacement of strong and elegant brick or stone housing and terra cotta roof tile by cruder thatch and wood houses; even the pitifully withered robustness of the average cow (see the striking illustration on p. 145). These losses are vivid concrete evidence of the fall of Rome. Ward-Perkins: Rather, there were simply too many military threats in too many places, and too many military and economic limitations, for the Romans to be able to afford a strong enough response to these threats, and not enough troops to save the west. Ward-Perkins: When these conditions collapsed, standards of living declined. Tableware, luxury goods, good pottery, good tools, sturdy tiled roofs, good buildings of all sorts: all disappeared. Large churches and basilicas, everyday coinage and commercial exchange, the wide distribution of goods and foodstuffs, ease of travel and communication: all disappeared. The fall of Rome brought a sharp decline in literacy, as well as in the unity of language (Latin, as opposed to numerous Germanic dialects), in widely accessible education, in the use of written records and documents, and in the production of literature and history-writing and the whole mentality this reflects. Ward-Perkins: Above all, there was in the post-Roman Latin West a rise of localism: a society composed of small, fairly isolated rural settlements that were more or less selfsufficient economically and self-sufficient in local defence, relying mainly on local potentes (armed elites and warlords with small private armies or bodyguards). The decline of sophisticated, centralized government, and the rise of localism, meant that basic needs and the demands for survival left most people no free time for education, art, literature, and architecture. Ward-Perkins: And as Ward-Perkins shows, with the collapse of centralized and unified Roman political authority and of a complex economy and system of trade, the civilization of the west also collapsed. # goldsworthy: internal weaknesses summarization by askhistorians, unformatted: This led to a devastating vicious cycle: The empire is under threat. A local commander takes action, but then makes a bid for power and starts a civil war. This reduces the strength of the frontier. This encourages Rome's enemies to mount raids and invasions. This forces local commanders to take action, which then causes a new round of civil wars. This process led to the crisis of the third century, wherein 30 emperors ruled in a period of 50 years. The Danubian soldier-emperors of the late 3rd/early 4th centuries restored order, though, and under emperors such as Diocletian and Constantine a new series of reforms took place. Armies too were centralised: the emperors now started to keep large field armies with them at all times, so they could respond to threats, but more importantly so they would be safeguarded from usurpation by their commanders. This system worked, but it came at a price. This reduced the risk of civil war, but increased the tax burden on the empire and weakened border defences Goldsworthy describes a process in which imperial authority always tried to draw support from "safe" social classes. Augustus relied on the Ordo Equester, the second-tier Roman nobility often translated as "knights", because senators would be too likely to see themselves as his equals and usurp authority. However, by Diocletian's time, it had become common practice for men of relatively low birth to become emperors. The class was no longer safe. The habit of using German military strongmen started. As outsiders, often reviled by Roman elites, such men could not realistically hope to achieve imperial titles for themselves. However, that did not last long. In the 5th century, these military leaders started using a succession of weak emperors in the east and west as puppets. It was the German military leaders who had the real power, and used it against eachother in new series of civil wars, even though ostensibly the same Roman emperor might sit on the throne for long periods of time. So again, short-term stability soon devolved into new internal weakness. It was these weaknesses which then enabled the Germanic invaders of the 4th and 5th centuries to replace the central Roman authority. As Goldsworthy puts it: """[The Roman Empire] may well have been "murdered" by barbarian invaders, but these struck at a body made vulnerable by long decay.""" # 4: unstable leadership: 27 BC to 395 AD from 27 BC (beginning of Augustus) to 395 AD (West-East split), the average roman emperor ruled for only 8 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709102270737940510/unknown.png """Well over half of the Emperors met some form of premature and violent end, with the average reign lasting only 8 years throughout the history of the Empire. Most of these violent ends are attributable to a particularly unstable period of the Empire known as the Crisis of the Third Century, where over 20 men (Maximinus I -> Carinus) — mostly prominent Generals of the army — ascended to the throne in a mere 50-year period.""" from 14 AD (end of Augustus) to 395 AD (West-East split), of the 71 Roman emperors, 26 (36.6%) perished via assassination or execution, 20 (28.2%) via natural causes, 10 (14.1%) via battle or captivity, 8 (11.3%) via possible assassination, 5 (7.0%) via suicide, 1 (1.4%) via unknown causes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709128770011005038/fJFRhSc.png ^ excluding the 3rd Century Crisis emperors (Severus Alexander to Carinus): of the 48 emperors from 27 BC to 395 AD, 17 perished via natural causes or illness, 15 via assassination or execution, 4 via battle, 4 via suicide, and 4 via possible assasination: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709134505658810398/unknown.png """table(c("p", "p", "a", "p", "s", "a", "s", "a", "n", "n", "a", "n", "n", "n", "n", "n", "a", "a", "e", "n", "a", "a", "e", "a", "n", "s", "n", "n", "a", "n", "b", "s", "e", "b", "n", "a", "n", "b", "n", "n", "b", "a", "p", "n"))""" # 4: unstable leadership: 27 BC to 476 AD from 27 BC (beginning of Augustus) to 476 AD (West-East split), ~46% of emperors perished via assassination or execution, ~38.5% via natural causes, ~6.5% via suicide, ~3.5% via murder, ~4% via external war: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709140552519516252/unknown.png from 27 BC (beginning of Augustus) to 476 AD (West-East split), the mean reign of an emperor was 8.5 years and median was 5 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709141387462967316/unknown.png # 4: unstable leadership: comparisons of the 39 British monarchs since the Norman invasion, the median rule was 22.5 years; 27.5 (70.5%) perished via illness, 6 (15.4%) via murder or execution, 2.5 (6.4%) via accident, 2 (5.1%) via battle, 1 (2.6%) via execution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709104756760641547/SxlvDO7.png """mean(c(21,13,35,5,33,10,17,56,35,20,50,22,45,9,40,9,1,2,24,38,6,5,45,22,24,25,3,13,12,13,33,60,10,7,64,9,26,1,16))""" of the 44 US presidents, 4 (9.1%) perished via gunshot: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709104062775164978/us-presidents-causes-of-death_15_0.png of the 44 US presidents, 4 (9.1%) perished via assassination: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709104487234797588/qez0pe6csx201.png # other: literacies AskHistorians regular & Roman history expert Astrogator: Roman literacy was probably less than 20%: """In conclusion: Probably less than 20% were literate at a level that we would today recognize as 'literate', however, a much larger percentage of the population was able to produce and read or write texts at lower levels of competency (like Brian from Judaea). This would differ a lot from area to area, and close inspections on the available material haven't been done for many places, where they were done they have sometimes lead to higher estimates than expected. It's an interesting question, and a subject of constant inquiry. Text was very important and ubiquitous in the Roman world, and some levels of basic understanding must have been there for most people.""" # other: lead consumptions Cillers and Retief 2019: in ancient Rome, lead consumption appeared to *increased* with economic status: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982516297990549544/unknown.png """Contamination of food, wine, and olive oil due to preparation in pewter or lead containers, and addition of sugar lead (sapa) were important causes of lead poisoning. It has been calculated that 50-60% of a free adult Roman’s lead intake probably came from wine. The nobility and the rich, who drank up to 2 L wine per day, would thus have been predisposed to lead poisoning. Pewter ware was extensively used by the middle class. It is calculated that the Roman aristocrat probably took in 250 mg of lead per day, the plebeian 35 mg, and the slave 15 mg. This compares with 30-50 mg of lead per day for the average contemporary adult in the United States. WHO considers 45 mg per day as the maximal lead intake for a healthy individual (Nriagu, 1983; Needleman and Needleman, 1985).""" #####c ##### # african civilizations #####o # ethiopia * at least 5000 BCE : Axum: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axum * 1070 BCE to 350 CE: Kush: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Kush * 900 BCE to 500 BCE: D'mt Kingdom: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%CA%BFmt * 0100 CE to 0940 CE: Axumite Kingdom: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axumite_Empire * 0900 CE to 1270 CE: Zagwe dynasty: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zagwe_dynasty * 1270 CE to 1974 CE: Ethiopian Empire: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Empire # somalia * unknown BCE: Kingdom of Punt: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_of_Punt * unkwn to 0900s CE: Somali city-states: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_history_of_Somalia * 0900s CE to 1100s CE: Mogadishu Sultanate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sultanate_of_Mogadishu * 1200s CE to 1500s CE: Ajuran Sultanate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ajuran_Sultanate * 1218 CE to 1884 CE: Warsangali Sultanate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsangali_Sultanate # examples of african science and technology Lebombo bone (speculative): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebombo_bone Ishango bone (speculative): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ishango_bone Namoratunga II (speculative): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namoratunga_II Metallurgy (contemporaneous with the MidEast): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_science_and_technology_in_Africa#Metallurgy Sankore University (1100-1500 CE): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_science_and_technology_in_Africa#Education Medicine knowledge (CUT THIS XXX): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_science_and_technology_in_Africa#Medicine Independent domestication of the donkey: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_science_and_technology_in_Africa#Agriculture Independent domestication of cotton: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_science_and_technology_in_Africa#Agriculture Independent domestication of coffee: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_science_and_technology_in_Africa#Agriculture Ox-drawn plows: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_science_and_technology_in_Africa#Agriculture Terraced hillside cultivation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_science_and_technology_in_Africa#Agriculture Diking and transplanting rice: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_science_and_technology_in_Africa#Agriculture Irrigation (diking, damming, leveling): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engaruka # examples of african buildings Largest manmade structure: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walls_of_Benin Defensive structure: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sungbo%27s_Eredo Capital city: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Zimbabwe architecture: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_science_and_technology_in_Africa#Architecture # western african non-adoption of the wheel Chaves Engerman Robinson 2013: the "Africans were too dumb to use wheels" explanation is circular and absurd; while wheels, particularly railroads, were ultimately very economically beneficial in Western Africa, they had a startup cost that coould not be overcome: Reinventing the Wheel: The Economic Benefits of Wheeled Transportation in Early British Colonial West Africa. """The conventional notion that Africans failed to employ the wheel because of lack of initiative or intelligence is intellectually unsatisfactory, not so much because it is racialist as because it is circular: Africans are supposed to have ignored the wheel because they were unenterprising, and the evidence that they were unenterprising is that they failed to adopt the wheel. In other contexts, notably in their widespread adoption of the use of imported European firearms, Africans proved eagerly receptive to innovation, and it cannot therefore be argued that they were in general conservative in their responses to new technology. There must, logically, be some special explanation for their lack of interest in the practical application of the technology of wheeled transport.""" Law 1980: Western African civilizations were trapped in a vicious circle (a classic example of the "low-income trap"): Wheeled Transport in Pre-Colonial West Africa """But it was nonsensical to advocate the introduction of wheeled transport in order to stimulate road improvement: heavy expenditure on road improvement would only be attractive if wheeled transport promised commensurate savings, and the experience of 1841 might equally reasonably have prompted the discouraging conclusion that the costs involved were so great as to be prohibitive. The costs of road improvement, moreover, would have to be incurred in advance of any savings to be derived from the use of wheeled vehicles, and thus represented a very speculative venture as long as wheeled vehicles were not already in general use. Even the British colonial government in the Gold Coast baulked at the gamble in 1870, concluding that roads suitable for wheeled traffic would be too expensive to build and were in any case undesirable since 'even if good roads were built, there would be no vehicles to travel on them' (Dickson 1971:218-219). **Thus, wheeled transport could not be adopted without improved roads, but the roads would not be improved as long as there was no wheeled transport to use them. Only governments committed to a more aggressive ideology of economic progress, and therefore ready to incur speculative expenses in the confidence of ultimate economic advantage, could break out of this vicious circle; and such governments arrived in West Africa only with the European imperialism of the late nineteenth century.**""" #####c ##### # egypt and central planning: mixed #####o Warburton 2000: the ancient Egyptian economy was a mixture of private markets and public construction projects: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895346898129535026/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895347741218197536/unknown.png ^ Warburton 1997: the ancient Egyptian economy was a mixture of private markets and public construction projects: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895345379686625340/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895344835555377172/unknown.png #####c ##### # incan empire and central planning: planned #####o # summary wikipedia summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Inca_Empire McEwan 2006: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895350586260729886/unknown.png """The most unusual aspect of the Inca economy was the lack of a market system and money. With only a few exceptions found in coastal polities incorporated into the empire, there was no trading class in Inca society, and the development of individual wealth acquired through commerce was not possible. Local political units were ideally to be as self-sufficient as possible in producing their own basic economic requirements. A few products deemed essential by the Incas could not be produced locally and had to be imported. In these cases several strategies were employed, such as establishing colonies in specific production zones for particular commodities and permitting limited long-distance trade. The production, distribution, and use of commodities were centrally controlled by the Inca government. Each citizen of the empire was issued the necessities of life out of the state storehouses, including food, tools, raw materials, and clothing, and needed to purchase nothing. With no shops or markets, there was no need for a standard currency or money, and there was nowhere to spend money or purchase or trade for necessities.""" Harris 2007 (undegrad journal): lists some sources and has some quotations: #####c #####c ##### # # ancient societies and human nature # #####o ##### # terminology #####o BP = before present Upper Paleolithic = about 50-20k BP; before the Mesolithic Mesolithic or Epipaleolithic = about 20k-8k BP in Near East, 15k-5k BP in Europe; final period of hunter-gathers before Neolithic Revolution and agriculture Neolithic Revolution = rapid transition of many humans in Near East to agriculture Near East = Southwest Asia ("Mesopotamia", Southeast Turkey, Israel, Iraq) #####c ##### # murder and violence has rapidly declined #####o # murder: long decline murders USA 1900 to 2010: centry-long fluctuation from 8/100,000 around 1900's to 5/100,000 around 1940's to 8/100,000 around 1970's to 5/100,000 around 2000's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636510083215523850/dff6489a561d0f2d8ea17736fa21556e168e104d.png murders USA 1900 to 2010 compared to England: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/691084035639869510/11217607.png murders Europe 1200 to 2000: six-century-long decline in homicide rate from 50/100,000 to 1/100,000: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/500095255962714122/unknown.png murders Europe 1200 to 2000: six-century-long decline in homicide rate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/691084073879470150/11217607.png # murder: long decline: shitty graph, scrape for sources murders USA 1750 to 2010: three-century-long decline in homicide rate from 30/100,000 around 1750's to 5/100,000 around 2000's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636510101376729118/Violence-Stylized-2.png # murder: state vs nonstate nonstate polities had massively higher violent death rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635718344305016833/1.png nonstate polities had massively higher violent death rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635718387514867713/2.png ^ critique of the above studies: unformatted, unread # murder: comparison with other hominids Gomez 2016: the rate of lethal violence among prehistoric tribes (~2%) is similar to the rate of lethal violence observed among our closest genetic ancestors: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/823983954553602058/unknown.png # violence: long decline violent crime USA 1960 to 2010: half-century-long fluctuation from 200/100,000 around 1960's to 600/100,000 around 1980's to 400/100,000 around 2000's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/669238034528469037/violentCrime2.png #####c ##### # war has recently significantly declined #####o # international relations has no ideological consensus most IR scholars describe their approach to IR as 25% nonparadigmatic, 18% realist, 17% liberal, or 17% constructivist: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/697633442942156870/unknown.png most IR scholars describe their approach to IR as 22% only rationalist, 22% only rationalist, 29\*.41=12% mostly rationalist, 8% evenly rationalist-constructivist, 29\*.29=8% mostly constructivist, and 20% only constructivist: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/697634274232500357/unknown.png most IR scholars describe their approach to IR as 23% non-positivist, 55% positivist, 21% post-positivist: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/697635642502545498/unknown.png # decline of war in modern era civilian and military deaths due to war have been declining for 75 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640987670927114240/Bubble-and-lines-FINAL-03.png # gender and war in Europe from 1400 to 1900, female/women rulers/monarchs/queens were more likely to wage external wars than were men/male rulers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636516044239798282/unknown.png # motivations for war just 7% of wars were primarily religious: [unformatted unread] #####c ##### # economic inequality arose after agriculture #####o # economic equality ancient agricultural and hunter-gatherer societies were very equal; an estimate based on housing size for their Gini coefficient was .35, compared to .8 in the US and .7 in China; the shift from hunting-gathering to horticulture to agriculture and the shift towards more-stratified political systems saw a significant increase in inequality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635206761875243009/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635207235852697621/unknown.png ancient societies were very equal (gini coefficient .1 to .4) until they became limited by land instead of by labor (ie, after there were enough people to work all available land): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635204273004871720/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635204956982476801/unknown.png #####c ##### # economic specialization and gender specialization arose before agriculture #####o Stutz 2015: hunter-gatherers in the Upper Paleolithic Near East produced specialized tools, probably indicating division of labor between producers and users of flint products (eg, hunters): """The group of toolmakers at Mughr el-Hamamah, however, used different technologies to get different tools. “They were investing in the kinds of activities that require maintaining relationships and group planning,” Stutz says. “They were gearing up for a clearly defined division of labor, including firewood gathering, plant gathering, hunting and food foraging.” They produced large quantities of blades for knives, and for hafting onto spears, using a prismatic blade technique that yields long, narrow points that are nearly identical. “This standardization minimizes waste of the rock while maximizing the end product,” Stutz says. “It’s the conceptual forerunner to assembly-line production.”""" #####c ##### # gender inequality arose before agriculutre #####o # gender equality Villotte 2010: evidence from activity-related bone injuries suggests that hunter-gatherers in the European Upper Paleolithic and Mesolithic probably segregated work by sex, with disproportionately males being spear hunters: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/863936794898595890/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/863936801878048808/unknown.png """Concerning the locations of the lesions, the predominance of the right side is observed in both sexes. These findings indicate that, even in case of a sexual division of labor during the Upper Paleolithic and Mesolithic, the global amounts of physical stress generated by the sex-specific tasks of males and females were not markedly different. At the same time, one attachment site is commonly affected in males (23.5%) but not in females, that being the origin of the common flexor tendon on the right medial epicondyle.""" """It thus seems likely that the four lesions of the medial epicondyle observed in male individuals of the terminal Upper Paleolithic and Mesolithic reflect the habitual use of throwingbased technology. In at least two of these cases, this practice would have started before adulthood. The location of the lesions on the medial epicondyle is consistent with spear throwing by hand, based on injuries reported in the sports literature.""" Kuhn 2006: """The rich archaeological record of Middle Paleolithic cultures in Eurasia suggests that earlier hominins pursued more narrowly focused economies, with women’s activities more closely aligned with those of men with respect to schedule and ranging patterns than in recent forager systems. More broadly based economies emerged first in the early Upper Paleolithic in the eastern Mediterranean region and later in the rest of Eurasia. The behavioral changes associated with the Upper Paleolithic record signal a wider range of economic and technological roles in forager societies, and these changes may have provided the expanding populations of Homo sapiens with a demographic advantage over other hominins in Eurasia.""" #####c ##### # agricultural revolution / paleolithic revolution #####o # data on height, lifespan, and urbanicity in Greece and Turkey Hermanussen 2003: the average height of skeletons in Greece and Turkey declined by about 10 cm after the Palaeolithic period while population density increased by about 10x: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/728047470646657044/unknown.png ^ Angel 1984: source for above table: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/728233461957132309/unknown.png """First, there was a fairly sharp decline in growth and nutrition during the confusions and experiments of the transformation from hunting to farming, with its many inventions and increasing trade and disease between about 10,000 and 5000 B.C. Partial recoveries and advances in health occurred during the Bronze Age rise of civilization; then real advance (e.g., a 7-11-year increase in longevity) occurred with the rise of Hellenic-Roman culture.""" ^ Angel 1984: skeletons in Greece and Turkey suggest that male and female height declined after the shift to agriculture, male lifespan was unchanged until ~4000 YBP, female lifespan dropped by 1 year until ~4000 YBP, and urbanicity increased enormously (by about 2500x): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/728300132851777546/unknown.png TODO """However, this decline in health was not permanent. For example, the health of Egyptians 12,000 years ago, shortly after the shift to farming from foraging, was poor. But by 4,000 years ago, height had returned to pre-agricultural levels and evidence of malnutrition in tooth enamel was lower than that of their hunter gatherer comparators. Agriculturalists adapted to their new diet and environment.""""""Then a funny thing happened on the way from the preagricultural Mediterranean to the giant farms of today: people, at least some of them, got healthier, presumably as we adapted to the new way of life and food became more evenly distributed. The collection of skeletons from Egypt also shows that by 4,000 years ago, height had returned to its preagricultural levels, and only 20 percent of the population had telltale signs of poor nutrition in their teeth. Those trying to make the point that agriculture is bad for our bodies generally use skeletal material from immediately after the shift to farming as evidence, but a more long-term view is starting to tell a different story. For example, Timothy Gage of the State University of New York at Albany examined long-term mortality records from around the world, along with the likeliest causes of death, and concluded that life span did not decrease, nor did many diseases increase, after agriculture. Some illnesses doubtless grew worse after humans settled down, but life has had its “nasty, brutish, and short” phases at many points throughout history.""" [unformatted] TODO gage study: [unformatted] # human population largely failed to grow for 5000 years afterward (this book doesn't cite a source for this claim) human population rose by only 1 million (from 4 to 5 million) between 10000 BCE and 5000 BCE: """The world's population in 10,000 BCE, according to one careful estimate, was roughly 4 million. A full five thousand years later, in 5,000 BCE, it had risen only to 5 million. This hardly represents a population explosion, despite the civilizational achievements of the Neolithic revolution: sedentism and agriculture. Over the subsequent five thousand years, by contrast, world population would grow twentyfold, to more than 100 million. The five thousand-year Neolithic transition was thus something of a demographic bottleneck, reflecting a nearly static level of reproduction. Supposing even a population growth rate just barely over replacement levels (for example, 0.015 percent) the total population would have still more than doubled over these five millennia. One likely explanation for this paradox of apparent human progress in subsistence techniques together with long period of demographic stagnation is that, epidemiologically, this was perhaps the most lethal period in human history. In the case of Mesopotamia, the claim is that, owing precisely to the effects of the Neolithic revolution, it had become the focal point of chronic and acute infectious diseases that devastated the population again and again.""" # life expectancy TODO """This story plays out in a 2007 working paper by Oded Galor and Omer Moav on how the shift to agriculture could have affected life expectancy, and more importantly, still affects life expectancy today. They make a fairly simple argument. When people shifted to agriculture and faced a greater threat of disease and other hazards associated with dense living, those who were predisposed to make larger investments in health (toward, say, higher investment in immune function or, as they model in their paper, resource transfers to children) would have an evolutionary advantage and increase in prevalence. When those threats to the environment later ease, as has now happened in most advanced economies, that higher investment in health translates into higher life expectancy. """ [unformatted] galor and moav study: [unformatted] TODO paleofantasy book: [unformatted] #####c ##### # origin of money #####o Graber 2011: credit and debt preceded money: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/895341246044852274/unknown.png """In fact, our standard account of monetary history is precisely backwards. We did not begin with barter, discover money, and then eventually develop credit systems. It happened precisely the other way around. What we now call virtual money came first. Coins came much later, and their use spread only unevenly, never completely replacing credit systems. Barter, in turn, appears to be largely a kind of accidental byproduct of the use of coinage or paper money: historically, it has mainly been what people who are used to cash transactions do when for one reason or another they have no access to currency.""" #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # environmentalism # # #####o ##### # # global warming & energy production & climate change # #####o ##### # terminology notes #####o # carbon abbrevations 1 PgC = 1 petagram of carbon 1 GtC = 1 gigaton of carbon 1 PgC = 1 GtC 1 GtCO2 = 1 gigaton of carbon dioxide 1 PgC = ~3.7 PgCO2 = ~3.7 GtCO2 # representative concentration pathways RCP 1.9 = CO2 emissions follow the Paris Agreement to reach net 0 by 2050, temperature rises to <1.5dC by 2100 RCP 2.6 = CO2 emissions decline to 0 between 2020 to 2100, temperature rises to <2dC by 2100 RCP 3.4 = CO2 ???, temperature rises to 2.4dC by 2100 RCP 4.5 = CO2 emissions decline to 1/2 of 2050 levels by 2100, temperature rises to 2-3dC by 2100 RCP 6 = CO2 emissions peak in 2080 RCP 7 = CO2 emissions continue as is (status quo) RCP 8.5 = CO2 emissions rise through 2100 # shared socioeconomic pathways IPCC AR6 2021: Throughout this report, the five illustrative scenarios are referred to as SSPx-y, where ‘SSPx’ refers to the Shared Socio-economic Pathway or ‘SSP’ describing the socio-economic trends underlying the scenario, and ‘y’ refers to the approximate level of radiative forcing (in W m–2 ) resulting from the scenario in the year 2100. # carbon budgets and pathways for each plans IPCC AR6 2021: remaining carbon budget and carbon emission evolutions of each plan: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/874764837077520415/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/874764848112734258/unknown.png ######c ##### # persuasion and messaging on climate change #####o # summary Doomer coverage of climate change may make people inactive or tuned out, which is the opposite of what we need. Solution-oriented coverage makes people hopeful and active, which are useful. # summary of messaging from APA Sinatra et al 2022 for APA: constructive messaging is best: """Offer constructive responses to climate change that people can adopt now and going forward, without blaming them for past behavior or inaction. Point to the benefits of climate action for health, well-being, and social justice, drawing on sources trusted by the audience. Such an approach can motivate people to act and help them avoid feelings of guilt, despair, or apathy (Bain et al., 2016; Geiger et al., 2019; Markowitz & Guckian, 2018; Ojala, 2012).""" # doomer messaging does not work, solutions-oriented messaging does Markowitz and Guckian 2018: messaging which highlights only the massive impacts of climate change leads people to sadness and inactivity: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070841986363437056/image.png """3.3.5 Insight 5: Highlight solutions Much of the existing work on framing, mental models, and risk communication more broadly (e.g., Witte & Allen, 2000) suggests that effective CCC requires a focus on solutions rather than solely highlighting impacts and causes (e.g., CRED & ecoAmerica, 2014). Although this makes intuitive sense, the vast majority of existing climate communication does just the opposite, highlighting the anthropogenic causes of the problem as well as the multitude of diverse and depressing anticipated impacts of unmitigated and continued climate change without a clear focus on what can be done to remedy the situation (see Hart & Feldman, 2014). The problem is that such negative, risk-oriented messaging, while likely aligning well with the motives and concerns of many climate communicators, tends to increase the salience of the issue at the cost of depressing individuals’ feelings of efficacy and motivation to take action (e.g., Chapman et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2013). Moreover, and more importantly, such impacts-focused messaging leads many individuals and audiences to simply turn off from the issue, if not spiral into unproductive denial or feelings of hopelessness (Feinberg & Willer, 2011; Hulme, 2009). Such problematic messaging is perpetuated by the popular press and media (Painter, 2013), which inconsistently convey threat and efficacy messages while framing climate change impacts and actions (Hart & Feldman, 2014).""" Markowitz and Guckian 2018: messaging which highlights solutions to climate change leads people to hope and activism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070853395289751552/image.png """In contrast, when communicators highlight solutions, particularly those that align with peoples’ values, worldviews, and preferred approaches to dealing with societal issues (see Kahan et al., 2007a,b), audiences are able to envision a positive and desirable future world and remain engaged with the issue. In turn, this can provide a concrete goal for individuals and communities to work toward, building both motivation to take action on the issue and a sense of personal and collective efficacy (Lee & Aaker, 2004; Roser-Renouf, Maibach, Leiserowitz, & Zhao, 2014; Witte, 1992). Moreover, solutions-focused messages and outreach strategies allow individuals to worry about the issue in ways that promote rather than inhibit engagement and, often, to identify cobenefits of taking action sooner rather than later (e.g., improving air quality and public health), further building motivation to engage (Bain et al., 2016; Myers et al., 2012). Indeed, practitioners and communicators alike are engaging in meaningful efforts to generate detailed, coherent visualizations of future climate scenarios embedded with planning solutions at the local scale to increase both collective capacity as well as mitigative and adaptive policy support (Cohen et al., 2012; Shaw et al., 2009; Sheppard, 2012). This is an important and ripe area for future research, as it remains largely unknown exactly which combinations of concern-evoking, impacts-focused messages, and hope-inspiring, positive visions of the future are likely to be most effective.""" #####c ##### # causes: consensus #####o >90%: in a 2009 survey of 3146 climate-related scientists, the vast majority (90+%) agreed that the world has warmed and that humans are a significant cause of said warming. The percentage that agree increases to as expertise increases: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/598942127728099348/unknown.png An invitation to participate in the survey was sent to 10,257 Earth scientists. The database was built from Keane and Martinez [2007], which lists all geosciences faculty at reporting academic institutions, along with researchers at state geologic surveys associated with local universities, and researchers at U.S. federal research facilities[.] [....] 1. When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant? 2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures? [....] [T]he most common areas of expertise reported were geochemistry (15.5%), geophysics (12%), and oceanography (10.5%). General geology, hydrology/hydrogeology, and paleontology each accounted for 5–7% of the total respondents. Approximately 5% of the respondents were climate scientists, and 8.5% of the respondents indicated that more than 50% of their peer-reviewed publications in the past 5 years have been on the subject of climate change. [....] In our survey, the most specialized and knowledgeable respondents (with regard to climate change) are those who listed climate science as their area of expertise and who also have published more than 50% of their recent peerreviewed papers on the subject of climate change (79 individuals in total). Of these specialists, 96.2% (76 of 79) answered “risen” to question 1 and 97.4% (75 of 77) answered yes to question 2. those "unconvinced by the evidence" for anthropogenic global warming were just 2.5% of the top 200 climate researchers by number of publication: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/598950499043246093/F1.png The UE group comprises only 2% of the top 50 climate researchers as ranked by expertise (number of climate publications), 3% of researchers of the top 100, and 2.5% of the top 200, excluding researchers present in both groups. over 90% of scientists agree with anthropogenic global warming: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/598956005770002457/unknown.png Cook et al 2013: among 11,944 papers mentioning global warming, 97.1% of abstracts and 97.2% of researcher self-ratings expressed support for anthropogenic global warming -- the view that humans are the chief cause of climate change: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/598950877558079492/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1081112515079061615/image.png """We compiled these CE researchers comprehensively [...] from the following lists: IPCC AR4 Working Group I Contributors [...] 2007 Bali Declaration [...] Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) 2006 statement [...] CMOS 2008 statement [...] 37 signers of open letter protesting The Great Global Warming Swindle[.] [....] We compiled UE names comprehensively from the following 12 lists: 1992 statement from the Science and Environmental Policy Project [...] 1995 Leipzig Declaration [...] 2002 letter to Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien [...] 2003 letter to Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin [...] 2006 letter to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper [...] 2007 letter to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon [...] 2007 TV film The Great Global Warming Swindle interviewees [...] NIPCC: 2008 Heartland Institute document “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate," ed. S. Fred Singer [...] 2008 Manhattan Declaration [...] 2009 newspaper ad by the Cato Institute challenging President Obama’s stance on climate change [...] 2009 Heartland Institute document “Climate Change Reconsidered: 2009 Report of the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)” [...] and 2009 letter to the American Physical Society[.]""" ^ Richard Tol complaint re: above study: ^ response to Tol's complaint: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642019969709637633/hist_self_abstract_500.png studies with high-expertise interviewees show higher (>90%) consensus estimates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/599103942705676288/unknown.png #####c ##### # causes: model accuracy #####o model accuracy overview of various models and how they've compared to the actual data: the most accurate historical models predict the highest warming from rising CO2 (under ultralow emissions scenario, 15% chance of >2dC warming by 2100; under current trends, >3dC at 21-71%; under high emissions scenarios, >4dC at 93%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/595826245833457704/unknown.png """In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (−1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.""" #####c ##### # scope over time #####o # temperature and co2 over time IPCC AR6 2021: we are rapidly raising CO2 to levels not seen since 3 million years ago, when the world was 2.5-4 degrees hotter than 1850-1900 (about 1-3 degrees hotter than now): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079903680142266400/image.png IPCC AR6 2021: at current projections (roughly SSP2-4.5), by 2100 we will have rapidly raised CO2 to levels not seen since 3 million years ago (!), when the world was 2.5-4 degrees hotter than 1850-1900 (about 1-3 degrees hotter than now): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079903680142266400/image.png # temperature over time Kaufman McKay 2022: the world today is warmer than at any point in the last 120,000 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079899983349821510/FnttaUvWYAMIhql.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079899995349725225/FnttHSeXgAADIFS.png Technical Note: Past and future warming – direct comparison on multi-century timescales multiple sources combined: Fergus 2014: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079902550398074951/All_palaeotemps.png Inglis et al 2015: # co2 levels over time Foster Royer Lunt 2017: human fossil fuel usage would represent the largest and fastest CO2 shock observed in the last 420 million years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079910643429281893/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079911982070771894/image.png Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years """If CO2 continues to rise further into the twenty-third century, then the associated large increase in radiative forcing, and how the Earth system would respond, would likely be without geological precedent in the last half a billion years.""" Rae et al 2021: Atmospheric CO2 over the Past 66 Million Years from Marine Archives # co2 levels and temperature correlate over long periods of time IPCC AR6 2021: there is a tight correlation of prehistoric CO2 levels and prehistoric temperatures: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/874777257753841704/unknown.png #####c ##### # causes: economic class #####o # causes: don't blame the poor # climate change and income inequality Gore 2020: since 1990, we have consumed 60% of the carbon budget before a 33% risk of exceeding 1.5dC; the top 10% consumed 31%, the middle 40% consumed 25%, and the bottom 50% consumed 4%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/859322752371916800/unknown.png ^ Gore 2020: per capita and total emissions https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/859324584292778044/unknown.png Gore 2020: the richest 1% consume about 15% of emissions per year, the richest 10% consume about 50% of emissions per year, middle 40% about 45% of emissions per year, and the bottom 50% about 5% of emissions per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1003431170417098882/unknown.png Gore 2020: those rich are disproportionately from North America and Europe: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/859324867261366292/unknown.png ^ Gore 2020: GHG consumption of the rich is overwhelmingly related to air and land travel: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/865276408188502066/unknown.png Oxfam 2015: the poor are not to blame for the effects of global warming; the rich cause most ghg emissions (top 10% cause 49%, top 20% cause 68%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/455881089072758795/unknown.png # throughpaths: companies 71% of global carbon emissions are produced by just 100 companies: https://b8f65cb373b1b7b15feb-c70d8ead6ced550b4d987d7c03fcdd1d.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/cms/reports/documents/000/002/327/original/Carbon-Majors-Report-2017.pdf?1499691240#page=8> https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/574324087648681985/unknown.png # historical ghg emissions since 1751, 26% of cumulative emissions came from the United States and 33% from Europe: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/628989147717042186/unknown.png #####c ##### # effects: food #####o # production Deryng et al 2011: by 2050, given a 1.7-2.5C temperature increase & allowing for agriculture relocation, production would fall 18% for soybeans, 12% maize, 7% spring wheat: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/700856509982179449/unknown.png """Overall, adapting planting date and cultivar choice show a stronger impact in the case of maize and spring wheat, resulting in an average reduction in global crop yield losses by 18 and 12%, respectively, whereas it shows a lesser effect in the case of soybean with an average reduction in global crop yield losses of only 7%.""" in the best-case scenario (B1), by 2080 only Chile, Thailand, Turkey, Canada, West Europe, and Australia would see food production increases -- the rest of the world's food production would decline between 10% and 0%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/572920974308016128/unknown.png # nutrition increased CO2 will decrease nutrition quality of most foods between 10% and 0%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/572918902540075011/nature13179-f1.png #####c ##### # effects: heat #####o # unliveable heat Mora 2017: substantial portions of the Earth are at risk of having large periods of unlivable heat (outdoors, for extended intervals, without protection): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635468399450914826/unknown.png """To quantify the global extent of current deadly climatic conditions, we applied the 95% probability SVM decision boundary between mean daily surface air temperature and relative humidity (red line in Fig. 1b, hereafter referred to as deadly threshold) to current global climate data (see Methods). Using data from a climate reanalysis (see Methods), we found that in 2000, 13.2% of the planet’s land area, where ~30.6% of the world’s human population resides, was exposed to 20 or more days when temperature and humidity surpassed the threshold beyond which such conditions become deadly (Fig. 2, extended results in Supplementary Fig. 4).""""""We found that by 2100, even under the most aggressive mitigation scenario (that is, RCP 2.6), ~26.9% (±8.7% s.d.) of the world’s land area will be exposed to temperature and humidity conditions exceeding the deadly threshold by more than 20 days per year, exposing ~47.6% (±9.6% s.d.) of the world’s human population to deadly climates (using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways projections of future human population29 relevant to each of the CMIP5 RCPs, see Methods). Scenarios with higher emissions will affect an even greater percentage of the global land area and human population. By 2100, ~34.1% (±7.6% s.d.) and ∼47.1% (±8.9% s.d.) of the global land area will be exposed to temperature and humidity conditions that exceed the deadly threshold for more than 20 days per year under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively; this will expose ~53.7% (±8.7% s.d.) and ~73.9% (±6.6% s.d.) of the world’s human population to deadly climates by the end of the century (Fig. 2, extended results in Supplementary Fig. 4).""" #####c ##### # effects: ocean acidification #####o summary of ocean acidification changes: historic variations in pH in the tropical South Pacific: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/700872817054580787/unknown.png historic variations in pH in the West Pacific: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/700871800707612743/jgrc21441-fig-0002-m.png #####c ##### # effects: economic costs #####o # overview critique of Nordhaus type articles: they assume that most economic activity is unaffected by global warming: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/752579141114789948/unknown.png critique of Nordhaus type articles: they assume that correlations over space are equivalent to correlations over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/752579773607313418/EhU4cM2XkAAUJtZ.png # effects: gdp reduction: low climate change at current GHG production is estimated to cost about 2% of global GDP by 2060 (currently 2% of $88 trillion = 1.76 trillion): """The ENV-Linkages model simulations suggest that market damages from the selected set of impacts are projected to gradually increase over time and rise faster than global economic activity. If no further climate change action will be undertaken, the combined effect of the selected impacts on global annual GDP are projected to rise over time to likely levels of 1.0% to 3.3% by 2060, with a central projection of 2%. This range reflects uncertainty in the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – a measure indicating how sensitive the earth’s climate reacts to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 – using a likely range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C. Assuming a wider range of 1°C to 6°C in the ECS, GDP losses could amount to 0.6% to 4.4% in 2060.""" # effects: gdp reduction: high climate change at current GHG production is estimated to cost about 10% of global GDP by 2049 and 30% by 2099: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/629849378936324107/unknown.png # alternative energy: environmental benefit wind power is eco-friendly: """Researchers have carried out an environmental lifecycle assessment of 2-megawatt wind turbines mooted for a large wind farm in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. They conclude that in terms of cumulative energy payback, or the time to produce the amount of energy required of production and installation, a wind turbine with a working life of 20 years will offer a net benefit within five to eight months of being brought online.""" xxx reread # alternative energy: cost accounting for lifetime costs, wind and solar are cheapest: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642020024625922088/chart-1-finally.png However, if costs over the lifespan of energy projects are taken into account, wind and utility-scale solar can be the least expensive energy generating sources, according to asset management company Lazard. As of 2017, the cost (before tax credits that would further drop the costs) of wind power was $30-60 per megawatt-hour (a measure of energy), and large-scale solar cost $43-53/MWh. For comparison: energy from the most efficient type of natural gas plants cost $42-78/MWh; coal power cost at least $60/MWh. # alternative energy: full renewable by 2050, renewable energy (wind turbines, solar photovoltaics, concentrating solar power, biopower, geothermal, and hydropower) could provide 80% of US power: study discussing feasibility of 100% renewables: unformatted 51% of Americans would support 100% renewable energy even if it raised their bill by 30%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/570795565072384032/unknown.png nuclear and other 'firm' resources will help renewable energy goals: # deaths per twh 2007 study: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/629016674397454360/unknown.png 2008 WHO study: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/629017070226374668/unknown.png 2017 study: solar, wind, nuclear have lowest deaths per TWh: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/629017165357645836/safest-energy-sources.png # bird deaths Neuhauser 2014: """Solar: Anywhere from about 1,000 birds a year, according to BrightSource, to 28,000 birds a year, according to an expert at the Center for Biological Diversity. Wind: Between 140,000 and 328,000 birds a year in the contiguous United States, according to a December 2013 study published in the journal Biological Conservation. Taller turbines tend to take out more birds. Oil and Gas: An estimated 500,000 to 1 million birds a year are killed in oil fields, the Bureau of Land Management said in a December 2012 memo. Coal: Huge numbers of birds, roughly 7.9 million, may be killed by coal, according to analysis by Benjamin K. Sovacool, director of the Danish Center for Energy Technologies. His estimate, however, included everything from mining to production and climate change, which together amounted to about five birds per gigawatt-hour of energy generated by coal. Nuclear: About 330,000 birds, by Sovacool’s calculations. Power Lines: Between 12 and 64 million birds a year are felled by transmission lines, according to a study published July 3 in the journal PLOS ONE. That's plenty of birds. But there's no more effective bird killer than species' lifelong enemy: cats. All told, felines kill 1.4 to 3.7 billion birds a year. Sylvester would be proud.""" # nuclear: timescale according to IAEA data, the average nuclear power plant was built in 7.5 years (between build start and grid connection): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/614113021790519326/constructiontime.png # nuclear: cost Lovering, Yip, and Nordhaus 2016: in every country but the USA and Germany, nuclear power overnight construction costs per kWh stayed flat or declined -- suggesting that the multi-reactor sites and standardized designs of these countries were efficient: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962839936812322847/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962842640058032149/unknown.png The metric OCC includes the costs of the direct engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) services that the vendors and the architect-engineer team are contracted to provide, as well as the indirect owner’s costs, which include land, site preparation, project management, training, contingencies, and commissioning costs. The OCC excludes financing charges known as Interest During Construction. ^ Lovering, Yip, and Nordhaus 2016: US: sharp increase, negative learning by doing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962839060794195968/unknown.png ^ Lovering, Yip, and Nordhaus 2016: France: slight increase, near-zero learning by doing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962839161998561300/unknown.png ^ Lovering, Yip, and Nordhaus 2016: Canada: slight increase, small negative learning by doing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962839289106927756/unknown.png ^ Lovering, Yip, and Nordhaus 2016: West Germany: sharp increase, negative learning by doing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962839367066464296/unknown.png ^ Lovering, Yip, and Nordhaus 2016: India: unclear trend: increse from 1960s to 1970s, decrease from 1980s to 2000s: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962840460450205696/unknown.png ^ Lovering, Yip, and Nordhaus 2016: Japan: unclear trend: increase from 1960s to 1970s, flat from 1980s to 2000s: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962839403636592660/unknown.png ^ Lovering, Yip, and Nordhaus 2016: South Korea: slight decrease, small positive learning by doing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962839517046374500/unknown.png # nuclear: cancer risk among residents Kim Bang Lee 2015: meta-study: among 13 studies on thyroid risk of people living near nuclear power plants (NPPs), the net effect was 0; however, among 2 well-designed studies that defined exposure as living less than 20km from a NPP, the odds ratio was 1.75x: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999183794131173487/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999184269517803621/unknown.png Desbiolles et al 2017: large study: among French people from 1995-2011, those living within 20km of nuclear power plants (NPP) or other nuclear installations (ONI) had slightly lower leukemia rates (0.86x), slightly lower thyroid cancer rates in women (0.86x for 1 site, 0.66x for 2 sites), and slightly higher bladder cancer (1.19x for 1 site, 0.72x for 2 sites); however, this latter result was entirely driven by one nuclear waste processing site: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999187339836399626/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999187671001870406/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999187715201441843/unknown.png # nuclear: cancer risk among workers Park et al 2010: meta-study: the risk of death from cancer is *lower* among nuclear plant workers than the general public, though it's not clear why (plant workers might be more vigilant at getting tested for cancer but also have a higher risk of cancer, for example): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1003413088382496768/unknown.png # nuclear: shell bluff Better Georgia 2016: nuclear bad: Blue Ridge Environmental Defense Leage 2010: "an analysis of CDC data from the Blue Ridge Environmental Defense League revealed a 24 percent increase in the cancer death rate in Burke County": Radiation and Public Health Project 2010: "documented a 55 percent increase in the cancer death rate for both children and adults after the reactors went online": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999202504426393610/unknown.png # nuclear: sex link NAS 2005: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999319903209271397/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999320175121801357/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/999320673430290462/unknown.png """The risk depends on both sex and age at exposure, with higher risks for females and for those exposed at younger ages. On average, assuming a sex and age distribution similar to that of the entire U.S. population, the BEIR VII lifetime risk model predicts that approximately 1 person in 100 would be expected to develop cancer (solid cancer or leukemia) from a dose of 0.1 Sv above background, while approximately 42 of the 100 individuals would be expected to develop solid cancer or leukemia from other causes.""" Olson 2019: radiation disproportionately affects women and children: [note: author is a crank] # abatement: cost climate change abatement that would cost just 0.4% of global GDP (less than USD350bn of about USD87trn) could reduce yearly gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions (GtCO2e) from 70 to 38 (54%) by 2030: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/631555533752631296/Global-Potential-Abatement.png # counterstudies: drought using climate models (which the above author recommends), global warming is a significant cause of the increase in droughts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/598943025464475673/unknown.png #####c ##### # effects: phytoplankton #####o # oxygen concentration decline is small oxygen concentration have fallen by about 0.1% over the last ~200 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/700908353920172032/F1.png """The study, published in the journal Science, revealed that the oxygen concentration in the Earth's atmosphere have decreased by 0.7 percent in the last 800,000 years. The decline is not that significant to be worried over. However, scientists are concerned because that the concentration of oxygen in the atmosphere has rapidly dropped by 0.1 percent in the last century.""""""A decrease in δO2/N2 of 1 per mil (‰) equates to a 0.1% decrease in PO2 relative to the preanthropogenic atmosphere (i.e., the modern atmosphere corrected for fossil fuel combustion).""" no, the Amazon is not the "lungs of the Earth": """Only a tiny fraction—perhaps 0.0001%—of global photosynthesis is diverted by burial in this way, and thus adds to atmospheric oxygen. But over millions of years, the residual oxygen left by this tiny imbalance between growth and decomposition has accumulated to form the reservoir of breathable oxygen on which all animal life depends. It has hovered around 21% of the volume of the atmosphere for millions of years.""" plots over last 40 years: another study estimating O2 concentrations over time: # human survivability and oxygen with evolution, humans appear able to survive with oxygen pressure as low as half of that today: """The highest permanent settlement on record is the (now abandoned) Chilean mining village of Quilcha (5340 m), which was discovered by the 1935 International High Altitude Expedition to Chile [39]. It has been argued that this represents the upper limit of long-term human habitation, because the residents chose to sleep at this elevation and make a daily ascent to the mine above. PatO2 at the Quilcha settlement is 11.3 kPa (slightly higher than 50% of the current PatO2 at sea level). The parabolic deoxygenation model described here predicts that PatO2 at sea level will reach this threshold in ~3600 years from now. During this time, the human species is likely to undergo further positive selection for physiological phenotypes conveying survival advantage in hypoxic conditions. Studies of high-altitude residents tell us that while such adaptations may enable us to function relatively well in an atmosphere that contains just over half the oxygen we breathe today; many will suffer the long-term consequences.""" # phytoplankton decline study discussing global decline of phytoplankton: unformatted study discussing global decline of phytoplankton: unformatted study discussing global decline of phytoplankton: unformatted Rosseaux 2015: most of the decline in phytoplankton is regional: The global decline in diatoms was mostly attributed to their decline in the North Pacific (−1.00% yr−1, p < 0.05), where the MLD shallowed significantly and resulted in a decline in all three nutrients (p < 0.05). None of the other phytoplankton groups exhibited a significant change globally, but regionally there were considerable significant trends. A decline in nutrients in the northernmost latitudes coincided with a significant decline in diatoms (North Pacific, −1.00% yr−1) and chlorophytes (North Atlantic, −9.70% yr−1). # phytoplankton adaptation one species of phytoplankton rose from 2 to 20% abundance from 1965 to 2010 in the North Atlantic Ocean: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/700875021987610644/unknown.png """`The CPR data shows an increase in occurrence of coccolithophores across the North Atlantic from ~1% of samples in the 1960s to over 20% of samples with coccolithophores in the 2000s (Fig. 1, A to F, and fig. S2)""""""We hypothesize that synergistic effects due to CO2, AMO [Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation], and global warming differentially accelerated coccolithophore growth rates, driving recent increases in their occurrence. Compared to other phytoplankton groups, coccolithophore photosynthesis is severely carbon-limited (2) and sedimentary records show a predominance of coccolithophores during interglacial (22) and high CO2 periods (23).""" within 100 generations, a model phytoplankton adapted to the point of equal growth rates in a shift of 20dC to 33dC: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/700876368124051456/unknown.png """In our experiment, growth rates increased exponentially between 20 and 30 °C after 10 generations, though at 33 °C, the capacity for physiological acclimation to facilitate further increases in growth was insufficient. In line with our expectations, CUE [Carbon-Use Efficiency] declined with increasing selection temperature, and at 33 °C growth was presumably limited by low CUE. Evolutionary responses in phytoplankton, either via selection on pre-existing genotype variation (Lohbeck et al. 2012) or de novo mutations, are frequently observed within 100 generations (Schaum & Collins 2014; Schluter € et al. 2014), and in our experiment, after 100 generations, growth at 33 °C had increased to levels predicted from the exponential relationship between temperature and growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, elevated thermal tolerance evolved via increases in CUE mediated by greater down-regulation of specific rates of respiration, R(Tc) relative to those of photosynthesis, P(Tc). These findings provide direct evidence that selection on metabolic traits provides a mechanistic explanation for the evolution of elevated thermal tolerance in a model phytoplankton.""" The first was published in the journal Science, and looked at data from the past 50 years. The paper's authors found one particular species of phytoplankton from the North Atlantic has thrived. In fact, its population has increased almost tenfold since 1965. That's an incredibly surprising finding for the researchers. It has long been thought that organisms like these would be particularly sensitive to the increase in acidity that is measured in the oceans today. In another study also published this week, researchers like Daniel Padfield from the University of Exeter explored temperature adaptations of plankton. And he says they adapted quickly. "At 33 degrees centigrade, which is the highest temperature where they were stressed out, they initially grew below what we would expect," he said. "However, after just 45 days, they evolved increased growth rates. So essentially, they increased their thermal tolerance, so the range of temperatures in which they're capable of surviving, after only 45 days." Only up to a point. In a third study published this week, in the Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, researchers from the University of Leicester predicted that a six-degree rise in ocean temperature will prevent phytoplankton from surviving. That would mean the loss of the oxygen they produce through photosynthesis.: #####c ##### # solutions: polling and surveys #####o # low willingness to pay AP-NORC 2018: about 60% of Americans say they are willing to pay $1/month ($12/yr) to combat climate change, 30% to pay $20/mo ($240/yr), and 20% to pay $100 ($1200/yr): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/871827005308542997/unknown.png #####c ##### # solutions: net zero by 2050 and carbon budgets #####o net-zero by 2055 would yield a high likelihood of 1.5 degrees Celsius: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/797278085107154985/unknown.png net-zero by 2050 requires negative CO2 emissions after 2050; however, non-CO2 forcing would not reach zero by 2100: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/797278098822922310/unknown.png many / most of the impacts highlighted by the IPCC begin to get substantially worse in the 1.5dC-2dC range: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/797278114694037504/unknown.png # carbon budgets: literature review Rogelj et al 2019: under the IPCC's estimates, the world's carbon budget for 1.5 degrees Celsius warming is 500 PgC and for 2 degrees is 1500 PgC; yearly emission is about 35 PgC; however, more conservative estimates (including eg permafrost thawing) put the 1.5 budget at 50 pcG and the 2 budget at 900 PgC: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/778776533421523024/unknown.png # carbon budgets: including non-CO2 forcing and permafrost melting MacDougall et al 2016: including non-CO2 forcing and permafrost melting, the remaining carbon budget for 2 degrees C (2dc) warming is 810 PgC, for 2.5dC is 1055 PgC, and for 3dC is 1265 PgC (current yearly emission is about 35 PgC); if we overshoot the warming target, the budget diminishes to just 690 PgC for a 3dC budget: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779022222797963304/unknown.png #####c ##### # solutions: alleged no point of no return #####o # most models agree models no PONR MacDougall et al 2019: meta-analysis of 18 Earth System Models found that there is little "warming in the pipeline" -- immediately stopping (model A) or quickly curbing (model B) greenhouse gas emissions would drastically limit future warming: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/778669653550825532/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862856705510867004/bg-17-2987-2020-f07-web.png ZEC = "change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions"; ESM = Earth System Model; EMIC = Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity; """Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.""" ^ Sanderson 2020: many EMICs make assumptions that structurally limit future long-term warming, which makes it harder to trust their observations for high amounts of CO2 output (but more reasonable at lower levels): # randers and goluke 2020: study itself Randers and Goluke 2020 claim: "Black dotted curves show Scenario 2 where man-made GHG emissions are cut to zero in 2020. In both cases the global temperature keeps rising for hundreds of years after all man-made emissions have ceased." https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/778665255890321478/unknown.png # randers and goluke 2020: responses the study was made by non-experts who used bad models: """Even before getting into the body of the study, the authors credited made me lift my eyebrows. They’re not climate scientists, they’re business school professors. And it shows in the report, because their model is simplistic. Climate researchers have spent decades building out models that account for the intricacies of the climate. More complex models, for instance, better illustrate the ocean’s circulation patterns, which can have a large effect on warming in the long term. They also more accurately display how much water vapor is in the atmosphere, which is short-lived but common natural source of warming. The new paper’s model misses a lot of this.""""""“Modern complex Earth System Models generally show minimal future committed warming after zero emissions, even taking our best estimate of future permafrost melt into account,” Hausfather said. [....] “Folks are missing that its a simple model created by non-experts,” he said. “I’m also worried that there is a bit of a bias to cover it given its purported dramatic findings.”""" #####c ##### # solutions: alleged tipping points #####o # consensus review Lenton 2008: according to a survey of ~80 climate experts with specific expertise, most of the tipping points are likely to occur in the 3-6dC range: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/807478259226116096/EsPE2iiXAAAVvYz.png ^ Lenton 2019: even these tipping points are too risky and we may already be past some tipping points: """We argue that the intervention time left to prevent tipping could already have shrunk towards zero, whereas the reaction time to achieve net zero emissions is 30 years at best. Hence we might already have lost control of whether tipping happens. A saving grace is that the rate at which damage accumulates from tipping — and hence the risk posed — could still be under our control to some extent.""" # permafrost melting the melting of the permafrost may release between 100 PgC to 400 PgC between 2000 and 2300 (or .3 to 1.2 PgC per year), depending on the severity of global warming itself: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/778788832153698305/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # ideological solutions to climate change # #####o ##### # summary #####o # background: universe of available beliefs Wiedmann et al 2020: summary of meta-approaches to sustainable prosperity: radical (ecosocialism, ecoanarchism, incl degrowth), reformist (agrowth/post-growth/steady-state-economy), green growth (sustainable growth, decoupling): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017957431613075496/unknown.png # evaluations of policies Dafermos Nikolaidi 2019: compare left, which separately considers [1] status quo [2] global $16/ton CO2 tax [3] ~$800bn global green subsidies [5] ~$800bn global green investment; against [6] right, which shows a mixture of all 3 -- akin to a moderate global GND; [6] would yield the lowest temperature by 2110 (good), highest incomes (good), and highest material depletion ratio (bad): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1135244007862182010/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1142642324611010560/image.png ^ Dafermos Nikolaidi Galanis 2017: definition of material depletion ratio, "ratio of matter that is extracted every year relative to the remaining material reserves": """To capture the scarcity of matter we define the matter depletion ratio (depM), which is the ratio of matter that is extracted every year relative to the remaining material reserves (Eq. (14)). The higher this ratio the greater the matter depletion problems.""" dep_M = M / REV_[M-1] #####c ##### # degrowth and green growth #####o # degrowth in its own words: equitable downscaling of energy & resource use, primarily aimed at rich nations Hickel 2020: specify what degrowth means that "we want to reduce energy and material throughput", because green growth is impossible: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017927604407390219/unknown.png Hickel 2020: degrowth differs fundamentally from a recession: (1) degrowth is planned, recessions are not planned; (2) degrowth prioritizes downscaling ecodestructive production and socially-less-necessary production, recessions do not; (3) degrowth aims for full employment with a job guarantee, recessions do not; (4) degrowth aims for lower inequality, recessions raise them; (5) degrowth expans universal public goods, recessions often privatize them; (6) degrowth prioritizes renewable energy and ecoprotection policies, recessions often cut these priorities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017966129110601788/unknown.png Hickel 2020: degrowth is primarily focused on high-income nations, which would enable Global Southern countries to pursue non-raw-resource-extraction economies and developmentalist industrial policy: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017967614674358352/unknown.png # degrowth policies Rigon 2017: set of degrowth policy proposals from the degrowth community in Budapest: """Making banks liable for the environmental impact of their credits; Shifting taxation from labour to material consumption; Cutting taxation on labour-intensive services with low energy throughput and consumption of nature; Taxing pollution, energy and nature embedded in products; Linking international trade agreements to frameworks on climate change and consumption of nature.; Reducing working hours.; Implementing an inheritance cap; Implementing bank holiday if the weather is good; Implementing ecological footprint product & service labelling; Implementing reparability scoring; Removing VAT from repairs; Changing social norms and the imaginary of a well-being; Changing social norms on consumption; Reducing advertisement; Implementing measures and policies to change small daily behaviours; Incentivising clean air and new urban mobility; Regulating the reduction of packaging; Increasing taxes on flights; Investing in non-commercial public spaces.""" # descriptive claims: ecocosts of carbon capture Heck et al 2018: bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) would require the land of up to 3x the size of India as the necessary scale, which would bring the Earth closer to the current expected planetary boundary (PB) for water use, land use, deforestation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018003346650566716/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018004314171637820/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018004487455133696/unknown.png # descriptive claims: material footprint: scope Wiedmann et al 2020: the global material footprint of the world has roughly doubled since 1990: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017955457710690334/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1133241422275936398/image.png #####c ##### # socialist green growth #####o Philips 2019: outlines the socialist green growth position, describes degrowth as eco-austerity ("eco-Thatcherism"): The degrowth delusion #####c ##### # decoupling: descriptive data #####o # summary of types of decoupling United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) International Resource Panel (IRP) 2017: distinguishes between "resource decoupling" [economic activity vs resource usage] and "impact decoupling" [economic activity vs harm to environment]: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1133238974383669278/image.png # production-based vs consumption-based decoupling OWID 2021: from 1990 to 2019, the US saw -16% decline in consumption-based CO2 and -24% decline in production-based CO2 (or, production-based is ~50% larger than consumption-based): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1132807247853006868/image.png # developed countries have achieved small consumption-based absolute decoupling Hubacek et al 2021: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1132798578847391816/image.png https:/cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1132800160179683418/image.png # rate of decoupling is insufficient to guarantee a livable earth Haber et al 2020: current rates of decoupling (increasing GDP while decreasing relative & absolute production of GHGs / material usage) are too low to allow a sustainable planet: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1135286716098416811/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1135285516628152490/image.png # sectoral data: absolute decoupling in high-tech sectors Mattauch et al 2018: several major high-growth sectors in the USA and Germany have seen absolute decoupling in the last few decades: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1132805783541788723/image.png Shrink emissions, not the economy """Absolute decoupling has been happening in many economic sectors: So if the most powerful economic sectors are not emissions intensive, then regulating emissions need not affect economic prosperity or output in developed economies. As shown in the charts here, the virtual economy and high-skilled jobs have grown disproportionately faster than heavy industry in the recent past.""" #####c ##### # sectoral approaches #####o # to read: Princeton's Net Zero America study, which has sectoral breakdowns Princeton's Net Zero America study summary: # concrete NZAP Concrete: Cao 2020: TODO concrete sponge cycle CO2 absorption: Watari et al 2022: in Japan, roughly 60% of concrete is used for buildings (of all kinds); roughly 32% of concrete is used for housing, 10% for medicine, 9% for transportation, 8% for education, 5% for food: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1133250525794672780/image.png Watari et al 2022: the combination of several best-in-world concrete practices could reduce emissions by 80%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1133251330501259316/image.png McKinsey 2020: estimates that 24% of concrete emissions could be eliminated with current technology: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1133252258772029551/image.png Mishra et al 2022: if 90% of new urban populations were housed in new urban mid-rise wooden buildings, about 100 billion gigatons of CO2 would be saved (much from switching to wood from concrete-steel constructions), or about 10% of the remaining CO2 budget: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1133253564983169114/image.png #####c ##### # # other environmental issues # #####o ##### # ocean plastic pollution #####o ocean plastic pollution is estimated to cost $.5 to 2.5 trillion per year: """This 1–5% decline in marine ecosystem service delivery equates to an annual loss of $500–$2500 billion in the value of benefits derived from marine ecosystem services. With the 2011 stock of plastic in the marine environment having been estimated between 75 and 150 million tonnes (Jang et al., 2015; McKinsey, 2015), this would equate in 2011, under 2011 levels of marine plastic pollution and based on 2011 ecosystem services values to each tonne of plastic in the ocean having an annual cost in terms of reduced marine natural capital of between $3300 and $33,000.""" #####c ##### # bees #####o # academic sources on managed bee populations van Engelsdorp Meixner 2010: managed honey bee populations are increasing, per FAOSTAT: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/820860600800378881/1073307478927876287/image.png Halvorson et al 2021: reported honey bee populations are increasing in most regions while other pollinators are decreasing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/820860600800378881/1073308463763038229/image.png pesticides and parasites have reduces bee population growth; however, the major causes of bee population decline in the West has been a shift of bee production to the east: """Long-term declines in honey bee colony numbers (i.e., the steady decrease in the overall number of colonies over time) in Europe and the U.S. appear to be associated with political and socioeconomic factors. They have involved more than a 25% decrease of European colonies since the mid-1980s and nearly a 60% decrease in the U.S. (Fig. 1) (Potts et al. 2010a). The collapse of the U.S.S.R. in the 1990s reduced governmental financing of beekeeping in former Soviet countries of eastern Europe, causing a 50% reduction in managed colony numbers there (Aizen and Harder 2009). In western Europe, higher production costs, competition from cheaper imported honey, and increased affordability of sugar-based products have led to a 30% decrease in beekeepers and a 25% decrease in colony numbers since 1985 (Aizen and Harder 2009; Potts et al. 2010a). Honey demand and prices had already fallen in the U.S. at the end of WWII, making beekeeping less profitable. Declines were compounded by rapid expansion of honey importation from China, Argentina, and Vietnam during the 1960s leading to reduced demand for domestic honey (Daberkow et al. 2009; vanEngelsdorp and Meixner 2010). [....] Additionally, long-term declines in the U.S. may be artificially heightened by the counting methods used by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). A widely cited reduction by one million colonies during the 1980s (Fig. 1) coincides with NASS discontinuing the inclusion of colonies from operations with five or fewer hives (vanEngelsdorp and Meixner 2010).""" # pesticide industry source Bayer 2018: world managed honey bee population has increased 65% since 1960: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/687772577703395361/unknown.png [note: source is pesticide industry] #####c ##### # sargassum #####o # ecological expansion coverage over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/700337486865629224/unknown.png # ecological causes: fertilizer and climate change Amazonian fertilizer runoff is a primary cause of Sargassum explosion: """Overall, the recent bloom events show connections to nutrient enrichment and climatic variations. Higher wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values in the bloom years correlated well with lower SSTs [sea surface temperatures] and stronger upwelling (Fig. 2) (36, 37). Evidence for nutrient enrichment is also found in the Sargassum nutrient compositions. Specifically, the N:P [nitrogen:phosphorous] ratios of the recent neritic samples show an increasingly P-limited growth compared with the historical baselines, which would be a result of long-term nutrient enrichment, especially N enrichment, in recent years (24). Other evidence to support recent nutrient enrichment in the central west Atlantic comes from increased deforestation and fertilizer use in Brazil and increased water-column nitrogen from 2010 to 2018 (fig. S4).""" ^ methodology explained: Djakoure 2017: """High anomalously unprecedented positive sea surface temperature observed in the tropical Atlantic in 2010-2011 could have induced favorable temperature conditions for Sargassum blooms. These favorable conditions were then fed by ad10 ditional continental nutrients inputs, principally from the Amazon River. These continental nutrients load are the consequences of deforestation, agroindustrial and urban activities in the Amazonian forest. The results also suggest that subsurface intake of nutrients from the equatorial upwelling could also contribute to the blooms of the Sargassum seaweed in the Atlantic Ocean but further studies are needed to confirm these additional inputs.""" # ecological cost sargassum kills coral reefs, kills beach grasses, and snares animals: """Sargassum is a troublesome addition to its new environs. At sea, it blocks algae on coral reefs from absorbing and harvesting sunlight. As the seaweed decays on land, it releases chemicals such as nitrogen and phosphorus that can seep into groundwater and pollute it. Although small amounts of seaweed help stabilize beaches, the large amounts washing ashore in the Caribbean can kill seagrasses, causing beaches to erode faster. It ensnares fish and dolphins and prevents turtles from coming ashore to nest.""" # economic costs: mexico: cleanup Mexico experienced $0.275 billion economic damage from sargasso in 2018; cleanup cost $0.017 billion in 2018, $.038 billion in 2019: Mexico GDP 2018: $1.221 trillion --> Sargassum economic damages = 0.023% of GDP """Federal, state and municipal authorities spent 332 million pesos (US $17.2 million) between June and December last year to attend to the invasion of sargassum but this year an investment of more than 720.5 million pesos (US $37.6 million) is predicted in the Semarnat/Segob report.""""""The two secretariats estimated that the arrival of the smelly and unsightly seaweed caused economic damage of just under 5.3 billion pesos (US $275 million) last year. At least 522,226 tonnes of sargassum were removed from the sea and beaches in Quintana Roo, they said.""" ^ cleanup will use federal navy vehicles and sea barriers constructed for this purpose: sargassum beaches map: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/700004824636326018/sargassum2.png """For hotel owners, the cost of keeping beaches clean has become “unsustainable,” according to an industry leader. Some are spending as much as 900,000 pesos (US $47,000) a month to ensure that beaches meet the expectations of tourists.""" Mexico Sargassum cleanup costs $17 million in 2018: Mexico GDP 2018: $1.221 trillion --> Sargassum cleanup = 0.0014% of GDP # economic costs: mexico: tourism Mexico predicts 30% drop in tourism in state affected by high sargassum washup: """Tourism will fall by as much as 30% at Quintana Roo beach destinations this year due to the invasion of sargassum, according to the federal government.""""""In Mahahual, where large quantities of sargassum have begun washing up on the beach, 40% of hotel reservations have been canceled in recent days, according to a Quintana Roo tourism official.""" sargassum likely had a negative effect on measurable tourism outcomes of sales, occupancy, and international traffic: """On the other hand, the Hotel Association of the Riviera Maya said in a statement that in the first half of the year they presented an occupation of 2 percentage points below that registered in 2018, which is the tonic with which the second will continue half of 2019 [sic].""""""Iván Ferrat Mancera, president of the Quintana Roo Nautical Associates, said that although in recent weeks the sargassum gave way, the balance a few days after the end of the season, which will end on August 26, is that between 6 and 7 points will remain percentages below the previous year’s sales. "We cannot say that it was a bad season, we reached levels of 89 or 90% occupancy, but last year we reached 95 or 96%; yes we suffer a low during this season."""""""Regarding the arrival of passengers, it should be noted that the Cancun International Airport showed a 2.5% reduction in domestic passenger traffic, from 938,633 in July 2018 to 914,987 in the same month of 2019; the decline was greater in international travelers, from 1 million 531,041 to 1 million of 484,897 in the reference period (3.0 percent), according to the Southeast Airport Group.""" ^ unclear effects: # economic costs: caribbean Caribbean Sargassum cleanup costs $120 million in 2018: Caribbean GDP 2018: $360 billion --> Sargassum cleanup = 0.033% of GDP (12.42 Bahamas, 101.1 `, 1.011 St. Kitts, 1.611 Antigua, 23.81 Trinidad, 5.145 Barbados, 1.186 Grenada, 1.922 St. Lucia, 100 Cuba, 85.56 Dominican Republic, 0.811 St. Vincent and the Grenadines, 15.71 Jamaica, 9.659 Haiti) # economic gains: fertilizer sargassum can be processed as fertilizer: Johanan Dujon, of St. Lucia, saw an opportunity outside the tourist industry. He began harvesting the seaweed and turned it into an organic fertilizer, founding Algas Organics in 2014. “I started this company with a vision to convert what many people saw as an environmental and economic threat into the world’s most innovative fertilizer company,” he explains. Algas Organics has processed more than 3 million pounds of Sargassum since starting production in 2015, simultaneously cleaning beaches and supporting local agriculture with an organic fertilizer. # economic gains: food some kinds of seaweed can be used as food: """Setting aside just 2% of Earth’s sea surface for seaweed cultivation would ensure enough food for the whole world, according to WUR. Compared with raising animals, sugar kelp production has a far lower impact on greenhouse gas emissions per unit of protein and avoids issues associated with land use. Making sugar kelp attractive and affordable at large scale will require private and public intervention, however, Parodi warns in his study.""" # economic-ecological gains: biogas sargassum can be used for biogas production, but it appears to require pretreatment: """In fact, the fungal pretreatment produced a 20% increase in methane yield, with important amounts of alkali metals Ca, K, Mg, Na of 78 g/L, ash 35.5% and lignin 15.6%. It is unlikely that high concentrations of ash and alkali metals will produce an ideal feedstock for combustion or pyrolysis, but they can be recommended for a biological process.""" # economic-medical gains: antibiotic Sargassum likely contains an antibiotic of unknown identity: """Milledge, whose background is in biofuels, is interested in testing the seaweed’s viability as a feedstock for biogas—the gases, such as methane, that are emitted by microbes as they digest the seaweed. “Although its empirical formula would indicate that it’s got a good biogas potential, it doesn’t in practice produce very much biogas,” he says. The reason may be that the seaweed contains compounds inhibiting the bacteria trying to digest it. Milledge’s ideal scenario would be to identify those inhibitors, extract them, and then market them for their antibacterial properties. Removing them for sale would be a win-win because it would allow the microbes to chow down on the seaweed and increase biogas yield.""" some algae contain an antibiotic (β-glucan) that may increase gut resistance to infection: """Results of this experiment revealed that inclusion of high dose βglucan reduced (P < 0.05) frequency of diarrhea (29.01% vs. 17.28%) for the entire experimental period. This was likely due to the reduced (P < 0.05) gut permeability and increased (P < 0.05) mRNA expression of gut barrier function genes (Claudin, Occludin, and MUC2) in jejunal mucosa of E. coli challenged pigs as β-glucan supplemented. Supplementation of β-glucan also reduced (P < 0.05) white blood cells, neutrophils, serum tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, cortisol, and haptoglobin, and down-regulated (P < 0.05) the mRNA expression of several immune genes (IL1B, IL6, and TNFA) in ileal mucosa of E. coli challenged pigs, compared with the control diet. In conclusion, in feed supplementation of algae-derived β-glucan alleviated diarrhea of F18 E. coli infected pigs by enhancing gut integrity. Feeding β-glucan also boosted host immune response against E. coli infection.""" #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # socialist theory # # #####o ##### # # meta: on the nature of theory # #####o ##### # dogmatism #####o # marx's view not a dogma to be learned by heart Marx 1887: "Our theory is a theory of evolution, not a dogma to be learned by heart and to be repeated mechanically." """The movement in America, just at this moment, is I believe best seen from across the ocean. On the spot personal bickerings and local disputes must obscure most of the grandeur of it. And the only thing that could really delay its march would be a consolidation of these differences into established acts. To some extent that will be unavoidable, but the less of it the better. And the Germans have most to guard against this. Our theory is a theory of evolution, not a dogma to be learned by heart and to be repeated mechanically. The less it is drilled into the Americans from outside and the more they test it with their own experience--with the help of the Germans--the deeper will it pass into their flesh and blood. When we returned to Germany, in spring 1848, we joined the Democratic Party as the only possible means of getting the ear of the working class; we were the most advanced wing of that party, but still a wing of it. When Marx founded the International, he drew up the General Rules in such a way that all working-class socialists of that period could join it -- Proudhonists, Pierre Lerouxists and even the more advanced section of the English Trades Unions; and it was only through this latitude that the International became what it was, the means of gradually dissolving and absorbing all these minor sects, with the exception of the Anarchists, whose sudden appearance in various countries was but the effect of the violent bourgeois reaction after the Commune and could therefore safely be left by us to die out of itself, as it did. Had we from 1864, to 1873 insisted on working together only with those who openly adopted our platform where should we be to-day? I think that all our practice has shown that it is possible to work along with the general movement of the working class at every one of its stages without giving up or hiding our own distinct position and even organisation, and I am afraid that if the German Americans choose a different line they will commit a great mistake.""" # marx not a marxist: out of context Engels 1882: "Marx was not a Marxist" in context: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/887018439074533526/unknown.png """Now what is known as ‘Marxism’ in France is, indeed, an altogether peculiar product — so much so that Marx once said to Lafargue: ‘Ce qu'il y a de certain c'est que moi, je ne suis pas Marxiste.’ [If anything is certain, it is that I myself am not a Marxist]""" ^ search "revolutionary phrase-mongering" for more context # mao: Marxism-Leninism must not be a dogma Mao 1942 [in Schram 1963]: speech opposing the use of Marxism-Leninism as dogma: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1088266663406882939/image.png """Our comrades must understand that we do not study Marxism-Leninism because it is pleasing to the eye, or because it has some mystical value, like the doctrines of the Taoist priests who ascend Mao Shan to learn how to subdue devils and evil spirits. Marxism-Leninism has no beauty, nor has it any mystical value. It is only extremely useful. It seems that right up to the present quite a few have regarded Marxism-Leninism as a ready-made panacea: Once you have it, you can cure all your ills with little effort.1 This is a type of childish blindness and we must start a movement to enlighten these people. Those who regard Marxism-Leninism as religious dogma show this type of blind ignorance. We must tell them openly, 'Your dogma is of no use,' or, to use an impolite formulation, 'Your dogma is less useful than shit.' We see that dog shit can fertilize the fields and man’s can feed the dog. And dogmas? They can’t fertilize the fields, nor can they feed a dog. Of what use are they? (Laughter.) Comrades! You know that the object of such talk is to ridicule those who regard Marxism-Leninism as dogma, to frighten and awaken them, to foster a correct attitude toward Marxism-Leninism. Marx, Engels, Lenin, and Stalin have repeatedly said, 'Our doctrine is not dogma; it is a guide to action.' Of all things, these people forget this most important sentence.""" Mao 1942: Reform Our Study """Marx, Engels, Lenin and Stalin have taught us that we should proceed from objective realities and that we should derive laws from them to serve as our guide to action. For this purpose, we should, as Marx has said, appropriate the material in detail and subject it to scientific analysis and synthesis. Many of our people do not act in this way but do the opposite. A good number of them are doing research work but have no interest in studying either the China of today or the China of yesterday and confine their interest to the study of empty "theories" divorced from reality. Many others are doing practical work, but they too pay no attention to the study of objective conditions, often rely on sheer enthusiasm and substitute their personal feelings for policy. Both kinds of people, relying on the subjective, ignore the existence of objective realities. When making speeches, they indulge in a long string of headings, A, B, C, D, 1, 2, 3, 4, and when writing articles, they turn out a lot of verbiage. They have no intention of seeking truth from facts, but only a desire to curry favour by claptrap. They are flashy without substance, brittle without solidity. They are always right, they are the Number One authority under Heaven, "imperial envoys" who rush everywhere. Such is the style of work of some comrades in our ranks. To govern one's own conduct by this style is to harm oneself, to teach it to others is to harm others, and to use it to direct the revolution is to harm the revolution. """ # luxemburg: marxism is socialism Luxemburg 1899: Marxism *is* socialism; rejection of Marxism is a return to childish socialism or bourgeois ideology: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/887040325900718080/unknown.png """But after the development of the class struggle and its reflex in its social conditions had led to the abandonment of these theories and to the elaboration of the principles of scientific socialism, there could be no socialism—at least in Germany—outside of Marxist socialism and there could be no socialist class struggle outside of social democracy. From then on socialism and Marxism, the proletarian struggle for emancipation and social democracy, were identical. That is why the return to pre-Marxist socialist theories no longer signifies today a return to the seven-league boots of the childhood of the proletariat, but a return to the puny worn-out slippers of the bourgeoisie.""" # modern writers Bruenig 2021: Marx was just another socialist thinker: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/887017692559736902/unknown.png """As a general matter, I am not one who thinks that “socialism” is the same thing as “what Marx wrote.” The tradition both predates and postdates Marx and, like most thinkers, Marx’s writing has all sorts of contradictions and errors in it. He’s not the prophet of socialism. He’s just another thinker in the tradition.""" #####c ##### # gotchas for "read theory!" #####o # das kapital if someone claims to have read "Das Kapital": * ask them to define "C-M-C" (to be charitable, also ask about "M-C-M" or "M-C-P-C-M"): the phrase occurs first in Volume 1, Chapter 3, and in almost every chapter afterwards: """The exchange of commodities is therefore accompanied by the following changes in their form: Commodity-Money-Commodity, C-M-C. The result of the whole process is, so far as concerns the objects themselves, C-C, the exchange of one commodity for another, the circulation of materialised social labour. When this result is attained, the process is at an end.""" * ask them what the difference is between labor and lower power: # gotha programme if someone claims to have read Critique of the Gotha Programme: * ask them whether workers under Marxian socialism should receive the diminished or undiminished value (perhaps "full fruits") of their labor; Marx clearly states that workers only receive the value of their labor after deductions are made as necessary to pay for capital, "common satisfaction of needs", "poor relief", and communal means of consumption ("social stock"): * ask them whose "iron law of wages" Marx and Engels rejected; either "Malthus" or "Lasalle" is correct, and is the focus of the entire 2nd part of the Critique: # origin of family and the state if someone claims to have read Origin of the Family and the State: - ask them what the three stages of hitherto existing civilization are; roughly "tribal", "feudal", "capitalist" is acceptable #####c ##### # morality in theory vs scientific socialism #####o Cohen #####c #####c ##### # # marxian economics: general # #####o ##### # concentration of capital: strong evidence for #####o Vitali, Glattfelder, Battiston 2011: just 147 firms control 40% of wealth held by the 43,060 transnational corporations in the ORBIS database; just 737 firms control 80% of wealth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779163734685777920/unknown.png # effect on policy Vitali 2011 is reasonably valid and their results suggest that transnational corporations have significant control over the behavior of corporations across the world and possibly on public policy: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779162274228207656/unknown.png """This article has shown that there are good reasons to believe that the capacity of TNCs to influence public policy is greater than previously thought due to the discovery that TNC ownership and control is extremely concentrated and centralized. The high degree of concentration makes it easier for TNCs to agree on political action.""" #####c ##### # alienation and capitalism (medium-strength evidence) #####o # marx quotes on source of alienation """All these consequences are implied in the statement that the worker is related to the product of his labor as to an alien object. For on this premise it is clear that the more the worker spends himself, the more powerful becomes the alien world of objects which he creates over and against himself, the poorer he himself – his inner world – becomes, the less belongs to him as his own. It is the same in religion. The more man puts into God, the less he retains in himself. The worker puts his life into the object; but now his life no longer belongs to him but to the object. Hence, the greater this activity, the more the worker lacks objects. Whatever the product of his labor is, he is not. Therefore, the greater this product, the less is he himself.""" # extent of job dissatisfaction 72% of North Americans are not engaged in their jobs; however, North Americans are the most engaged of any world region: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640925825452998685/rly7fx4r6ucjby0emu9hiw.png # supervision, routinization and alienation alienation from work (feelings of powerlessness, self-estrangement, and normlessness) directly correlates with higher occupational self-direction (routinization, close supervision) and indirectly correlates with higher worker ownership & higher hierarchical position: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779047580533391420/unknown.png ^ definition of alienation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/763842591245991946/unknown.png """The intent of this analysis, then, is to appraise two related hypotheses suggested by Marx's analysis of the occupational sources of alienation. One hypothesis, emphasizing loss of control over the products of one's labor, posits that ownership and hierarchical position are of crucial importance with respect to alienation (and also ascribes an important, if secondary, role to division of labor). The other hypothesis, emphasizing loss of control over the process of labor, suggests that (at least within an industrialized, capitalist society) such determinants of occupational selfdirection as closeness of supervision, routinization, and substantive complexity overshadow ownership, hierarchical position, and division of labor in their effects on alienation""" # powerlessness and alienation powerlessness (lack of control over one's work) is directly and indirectly correlated with feelings of helplessness and alienation from work: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779052027950399491/unknown.png """Because of the centrality of the powerlessness construct in the adjustment model, the construct was assessed by five measures: (1) the 3-item Job Autonomy Scale from the Job Diagnostic Survey (Hackman & Oldham, 1980), (2) the 4-item Job Authority scale from the revised Organizational Assessment Instrument (Van de Ven & Ferry, 1980), (3) self-reported job grade, (4) ratings of autonomy and participation (based on job title) by one job evaluation specialist from each plant (Interrater reliability over the 10 general job families used for classitication purposes: r = .73, p < .Ol), and (5) a 324tem Powerlessness scale adapted from a number of sources (Aiken & Hage, 1966; Bacharach & Aiken, 1979; Kirsch & Lengermann, 1972; Moth, Cammann, & Cooke, 1983; Shepard, 1972; Taylor & Bowers, 1972; Van de Ven & Ferry, 1980).""" ^ reminder that unions don't guarantee worker participation: """The plants differed in several respects: (1) Plant 1 employs 3,500 people, Plant 2, 600; (2) only Plant 1 is unionized[.] [....] According to job evaluation specialists at the two plants, the higher powerlessness at Plant 1 is attributable to the greater use of quality circles and participative management at Plant 2. And indeed, subjects at Plant 1 reported a greater lack of participation ranging from 22% to 31% across the 10 job families studied, but no difference in the lack of autonomy.""" #####c ##### # bad theory: immiseration theory / biological minimum wages #####o # summary Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels, and Rosa Luxemburg all claimed that real wages under capitalism would tend to decline in real terms until they hit a "starvation", "famine", "biological", etc. minimum limit (below which workers would be unable to maintain and reproduce themselves). This is incorrect, as real wages have risen explosively since the 1820's. wiki: # real wages have increased OECD 2014: real wages have enormously grown since the 1820's; real wages are expressed here as number of subsistence baskets that a construction laborer could earn: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/858382956523290644/unknown.png ^ volume 2: animation: # the engels pause and stagnating real wages in Marx's time Allen 2007: the Engels pause suggests that real wages did not rise with productivity in Britain from ~1770-1840: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787179390886346782/unknown.png Allen 2007: the Engels pause suggests that real profit rose enormously from ~1800-1850 but stabilized after the 1860's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787179801349586974/unknown.png Allen 2007b: defends above results against Clark: # but marx rejected the iron law of wages! Engels 1875: Marx rejected the Malthusian iron law of wages [shown below], but this does not mean that he rejected a wage system altogether: """Thirdly, our people have allowed themselves to be saddled with the Lassallean “iron law of wages” which is based on a completely outmoded economic view, namely that on average the workers receive only the minimum wage because, according to the Malthusian theory of population, there are always too many workers (such was Lassalle’s reasoning). Now in Capital Marx has amply demonstrated that the laws governing wages are very complex, that, according to circumstances, now this law, now that, holds sway, that they are therefore by no means iron but are, on the contrary, exceedingly elastic, and that the subject really cannot be dismissed in a few words, as Lassalle imagined. Malthus’ argument, upon which the law Lassalle derived from him and Ricardo (whom he misinterpreted) is based, as that argument appears, for instance, on p. 5 of the Arbeiterlesebuch, where it is quoted from another pamphlet of Lassalle’s, [9] is exhaustively refuted by Marx in the section on “Accumulation of Capital.” Thus, by adopting the Lassallean “iron law” one commits oneself to a false proposition and false reasoning in support of the same.""" # but what about baumol 1983? literal misquotes! he chops up quotes Baumol 1983: # marx quotes: no increase in real wages Marx 1865: capitalism forces labor towards its minimum limit, definied as "the value of the necessaries required for [the] maintenance and reproduction" of human laborers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864292363517427742/unknown.png """I might answer by a generalization, and say that, as with all other commodities, so with labour, its market price will, in the long run, adapt itself to its value; that, therefore, despite all the ups and downs, and do what he may, the working man will, on an average, only receive the value of his labour, which resolves into the value of his labouring power, which is determined by the value of the necessaries required for its maintenance and reproduction, which value of necessaries finally is regulated by the quantity of labour wanted to produce them.""" Marx 1865: capitalism forces wages (the value and price of labor-power) towards its minimum limit: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864274371345907753/unknown.png """These few hints will suffice to show that the very development of modern industry must progressively turn the scale in favour of the capitalist against the working man, and that consequently the general tendency of capitalistic production is not to raise, but to sink the average standard of wages, or to push the value of labour more or less to its minimum limit.""" Marx 1867: the minimum limit of wages (the value and price of labor-power) is the value and price of the commodities required to maintain and reproduce human laborers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864294321008410654/unknown.png """The minimum limit of the value of labour-power is determined by the value of the commodities, without the daily supply of which the labourer cannot renew his vital energy, consequently by the value of those means of subsistence that are physically indispensable. If the price of labour-power fall to this minimum, it falls below its value, since under such circumstances it can be maintained and developed only in a crippled state. But the value of every commodity is determined by the labour-time requisite to turn it out so as to be of normal quality.""" Marx 1867: as productivity increases, capitalism forces workers to accept worse conditions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/891452007704059924/unknown.png """[W]ithin the capitalist system all methods for raising the social productiveness of labour are brought about at the cost of the individual labourer; all means for the development of production transform themselves into means of domination over, and exploitation of, the producers[.] [....] It follows therefore that in proportion as capital accumulates, the lot of the labourer, be his payment high or low, must grow worse. The law, finally, that always equilibrates the relative surplus population, or industrial reserve army, to the extent and energy of accumulation, this law rivets the labourer to capital more firmly than the wedges of Vulcan did Prometheus to the rock. It establishes an accumulation of misery, corresponding with accumulation of capital. Accumulation of wealth at one pole is, therefore, at the same time accumulation of misery, agony of toil slavery, ignorance, brutality, mental degradation, at the opposite pole, i.e., on the side of the class that produces its own product in the form of capital.""" # marx quotes: no increase in real wages, despite worker struggle Marx 1865: 99% of worker struggles to raise wages merely prevent it from lowering: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864299029625045032/unknown.png """I think I have shown that their struggles for the standard of wages are incidents inseparable from the whole wages system, that in 99 cases out of 100 their efforts at raising wages are only efforts at maintaining the given value of labour, and that the necessity of debating their price with the capitalist is inherent to their condition of having to sell themselves as commodities. By cowardly giving way in their everyday conflict with capital, they would certainly disqualify themselves for the initiating of any larger movement.""" Marx 1865: worker struggle can slow the downward movement of wages but not stop it: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864299082633969694/unknown.png """They ought not to forget that they are fighting with effects, but not with the causes of those effects; that they are retarding the downward movement, but not changing its direction; that they are applying palliatives, not curing the malady. They ought, therefore, not to be exclusively absorbed in these unavoidable guerilla fights incessantly springing up from the never ceasing encroachments of capital or changes of the market.""" # marx quotes: no increase in real wages of english workers Marx 1864: real wages declines from 1852 to 1861; it is "truth demonstrable to every unprejudiced mind" that "development of the productive powers of labor" will increase "the miseries of the industrious masses": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/887029928623759380/unknown.png """In all of them there has taken place, since 1848, an unheard-of development of industry, and an unheard-of expansion of imports and exports. In all of them, as in England, a minority of the working classes got their real wages somewhat advanced; while in most cases the monetary rise of wages denoted no more a real access of comforts than the inmate of the metropolitan poorhouse or orphan asylum, for instance, was in the least benefited by his first necessaries costing £9 15s. 8d. in 1861 against £7 7s. 4d. in 1852. Everywhere the great mass of the working classes were sinking down to a lower depth, at the same rate at least that those above them were rising in the social scale. In all countries of Europe it has now become a truth demonstrable to every unprejudiced mind, and only decried by those whose interest it is to hedge other people in a fool’s paradise, that no improvement of machinery, no appliance of science to production, no contrivances of communication, no new colonies, no emigration, no opening of markets, no free trade, not all these things put together, will do away with the miseries of the industrious masses; but that, on the present false base, every fresh development of the productive powers of labor must tend to deepen social contrasts and point social antagonisms.""" # engels quote: no increase in real wages Engels 1877: capitalism forces wages down to a "famine minimum": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864273515805016074/unknown.png """Machinery becomes the most powerful weapon in the war of capital against the working class; that the instruments of labour constantly tear the means of subsistence out of the hands of the labourer; that the very product of the worker is turned into an instrument for his subjugation. [....] Thus it comes about that the overwork of some becomes the preliminary condition for the idleness of others, and that modern industry, which hunts after new consumers over the whole world, forces the consumption of the masses at home down to a starvation minimum, and in doing this destroys its own home market.""" # luxemburg quote: no increase in real wages Luxemburg 1913: Under capitalism, real wages tend to be driven towards the socially determined minimum: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864273754813235200/unknown.png """In its capitalist form, this division shows itself not only in the qualitative peculiarities of both v and s as already outlined, but also in their quantitative relationship: v tends to become depressed to a minimum level, just sufficient for the physiological and social existence of the worker, and s tends to increase continually at the cost of, and relative to, v.""" Luxemburg 1913: Rodbertus incorrectly rejects the objective economic law that wages are reduced to the minimum of subsistence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/891447246191722519/unknown.png """Rodbertus, after having thus turned everything upside down, after deriving the exchange value of labour from competition, now immediately derives its value from its exchange value. ‘Under the laws of exchange value, labour, like produced goods, comes to have a kind of “cost value” which exercises some magnetic effects upon its exchange value, the amount of the labour wage. It is that particular amount of payment which is necessary for the “maintenance” of labour, in other words, which enables labour to continue, if only in the persons of its progeny—it is the so-called “minimum of subsistence”.’ For Rodbertus, however, this is not a statement of objective economic laws, but merely an object for moral indignation. He calls the thesis of the classical school, that labour is worth no more than the wages it can command, a ‘cynical’ statement, and he is determined to expose the ‘string of lies’ leading to this ‘crude and unethical’ conclusion.8""" # luxembourg summaries: no increase in real wages Robinson 1968: Luxemburg assumes constant real wages: """The operation of the capitalist system is presumed to depress the level of wages down to the limit set by the minimum subsistence of the worker and his family.""""""In Section II [....] [r]eal wages tend to be constant in terms of commodities, thus the value of labour power is falling, and the share of surplus in net income is rising (s/v, the rate of exploitation, is rising).""""""Section III [...] opens with a return to Marx’s model for a capitalist system with accumulation going on. Our author then sets out a fresh model allowing for technical progress. The rate of exploitation (the ratio of surplus to wages) is rising, for real wages remain constant while output per man increases.""""""Rosa Luxemburg, as we have seen, neglects the rise in real wages which takes place as capitalism develops, and denies the internal inducement to invest provided by technical progress, two factors which help to rescue capitalism from the difficulties which it creates for itself. She is left with only one influence (economic imperialism) to account for continuous capital accumulation, so that her analysis is incomplete.""" Rosseas 1979: Luxemburg assumes constant real wages at the social determined minimum: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/887038255688740934/unknown.png """When technological change is introduced into the model, the organic composition of capital (c/v) rises, as does the rate of surplus value. This, however, is based on a critical assumption in Luxemburg's analysis, namely, that real wages do not increase and are maintained at the socially determined minimum. [....] As Joan Robinson observes, Luxemburg not only neglected the rise in real wages under capitalism (which the revisionist Eduard Bernstein had so strongly argued), she also neglected "the internal inducement to invest provided by technical progress," thus underestimating two important ways in which capitalism could realize its surplus value in a closed system.""" # marx quote: decrease in labor share of income Marx 1847: wages may rise if capital growth is high, but wages relative to profits will still fall: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/939209034169458688/unknown.png """An appreciable rise in wages presupposes a rapid growth of productive capital. Rapid growth of productive capital calls forth just as rapid a growth of wealth, of luxury, of social needs and social pleasures. Therefore, although the pleasures of the labourer have increased, the social gratification which they afford has fallen in comparison with the increased pleasures of the capitalist, which are inaccessible to the worker, in comparison with the stage of development of society in general. Our wants and pleasures have their origin in society; we therefore measure them in relation to society; we do not measure them in relation to the objects which serve for their gratification. Since they are of a social nature, they are of a relative nature.""" Marx 1847: real wages represent the price of labor relative to other commodities; relative wages (labor share of income) represents the share of value created by labor that labor receives: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/939209483031294072/unknown.png """But neither the nominal wages – i.e., the amount of money for which the labourer sells himself to the capitalist – nor the real wages – i.e., the amount of commodities which he can buy for this money – exhausts the relations which are comprehended in the term wages. Wages are determined above all by their relations to the gain, the profit, of the capitalist. In other words, wages are a proportionate, relative quantity. Real wages express the price of labour-power in relation to the price of commodities; relative wages, on the other hand, express the share of immediate labour in the value newly created by it, in relation to the share of it which falls to accumulated labour, to capital.""" # luxemburg quote: decrease in labor share of income Luxemburg 1913: Under capitalism, technical progress does not increase wages; instead, it decreases the labor share of income and increases the capital share of income (specifically, the share of income set toward net fixed capital formation): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/858418299129430036/unknown.png """Another law, Marx discovered, must also be applied here. The constant capital, continually overlooked by the classical economists, increases relative to the variable capital that is spent on wages. This is merely the capitalist expression of the general effects of increasing labour productivity. With, technical progress, human labour is able to set in motion ever larger masses of means of production and to convert them into goods. In capitalist terms, this means a progressive decrease in expenses for living labour, in wages, relative to the expenses for inanimate means of production. Contrary to the assumption of Adam Smith and Ricardo, enlarged reproduction must not only start with the division of the capitalised part of the surplus value into constant and variable capital, but, as the technique of production advances, it is bound to allocate in this division ever increasing portions to the constant, and ever diminishing portions to the variable capital. This continuous qualitative change in the composition of capital is the specific manifestation of the accumulation of capital, that is to say of enlarged reproduction on the basis of capitalism.""" # luxemburg quote: in context, does not contradict above because increased means of subsistence are offset by increased population Luxemburg 1913: capitalism requires increases in variable capital; this is achieved by ensuring worker means of subsistence sufficient to produce more workers (population growth) and by importing labor from precapitalist societies (imperialism): """As for enlarged reproduction or accumulation, in Marx’s diagram the composition of the social product in terms of value is also strictly in proportion to its material form the surplus value, or rather that part of it which is earmarked for capitalisation, has from the very beginning the form of material means of production and means of subsistence for the workers in a ratio appropriate to the expansion of production on a given technical basis. [....] In Marx’s diagram, the social product contains ever more means of subsistence for the workers as the material form proper to this variable capital. **The variable capital, however, is not really the means of subsistence for the worker but is in fact living labour for whose reproduction these means of subsistence are necessary.** One of the fundamental conditions of accumulation is therefore a supply of living labour which can be mobilised by capital to meet its demands. [....] The increasing growth of variable capital which accompanies accumulation must therefore become manifest in ever greater numbers of employed labour. Where can this additional labour be found? [....] Thus the increase in the variable capital is directly and exclusively attributed to the natural physical increase of a working class already dominated by capital. Since capitalist production can develop fully only with complete access to all territories and climes, it can no more confine itself to the natural resources and productive forces of the temperate zone than it can manage with white labour alone. Capital needs other races to exploit territories where the white man cannot work. It must be able to mobilise world labour power without restriction in order to utilise all productive forces of the globe[.] [....] This is a concrete example of the fact that capitalist production cannot manage without labour power from other social organisations.""" Luxemburg 1913: diagram partially explaining the above: means of subsistence grow over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/858403501909606400/unknown.png # more reading to do on the topic sd21 xxx todo: #####c #####c ##### # # marxian economics: falling rate of profit # #####o ##### # falling rate of profit: is it real? #####o # terminology rate of profit = r = (surplus value) / (capital invested) = (unpaid value of products of labor) / (variable capital invested and constant capital invested) return = R = (net change in value) / (initial value) = (final value - initial value) / (initial value) rate of return on investment = r = R/t = (return) / (number of time periods) return on investment = ROI = (net income) / (investment) = (income - investment) / (investment) # studies suggesting no systematic trend in rate of profit: present-day Basu 2012: after controlling for several "countervailing tendencies", for external variables that change the rate of profit (ie, surplus population, price of capital, etc.) the rate of profit has indeed fallen, but at a very slow rate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/497211423001149480/unknown.png Resende 2017: there is no evidence that profit growth rates from 1949 to 2007 demonstrate a consistent falling pattern; instead, two "regimes" (rising and falling profit) have roughly equal magnitude and likelihood (method: Markov-switching model): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809801677997735946/unknown.png "[Table 1] indicates distinct and symmetric means for the regimes of increasing and declining profit rates. [....] [From Table 2] one cannot reject the null of no serial correlation and therefore more confidence can be obtained on the portrayal of the GPR in terms of a MS model. [....] The results provide additional evidence against the Marxian hypothesis of a general declining tendency of the profit rate as it is not possible to ascertain a salient dominance of that regime. Such observation is further reinforced when the chronology of the regimes is established in Table 3. [....] The model appears to provide a satisfactory portrayal of the evolution of the profit rate and the pattern of long swings reinforces previous rejections of the hypothesis of a consistent declining tendency of the profit rate. In fact, no dominance appears to prevail in connection with the referred regime." Dumenil and Levy 2011: the profit rate has fluctuated over time with no clear trend: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809821017647218698/unknown.png """The Depression occurred in a period of comparatively low profitability by historical standards, but in the initial steps of a recovery, an intermediate period between two downward trends. The Great Depression can be labeled a "structural crisis," but unlike the crises of the 1890s and 1 970s, it was not the outcome of a fall of the profit rate.""" # studies suggesting increase of rate of profit: historical Dumenil and Levy 2016: Germany observed an increase of the rate of profit from ~4% to ~8% between 1851 and 1913: secular increase: [1] r_AB = r_{AB} = (Y_A + Y_B)/(A_A + A_B), Y_A = Business capital income, Y_B = Agricultural capital income, A_A = Agricultural fixed assets (excluding land), A_B = Business assets [2] data source: Hoffman https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/503705833746464768/unknown.png """This does not mean, obviously, that the framework of trajectories à la Marx and the thesis of the historical character of capitalism are disproved. First, the relevance of Hoffmann's data in a calculation of profit rates cannot be taken for granted; second, the dynamics of capitalism are more complex (Duménil and Lévy, 2016).""" ^ Dumenil and Levy 2016: this probably applies to other countries: This note does not investigate Maito's calculations for other countries. In the Figure 5 of Maito's second paper, profit rates of about 50 percent are shown after 1850 in the Netherlands and Sweden. It is hard to imagine the coexistence of such rates with the corrected estimates of 6.3 percent for Germany during the same years. # studies suggesting decline of rate of profit Maito 2014: the rate of profit has declined cyclically for the past 150 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/806931207727218704/unknown.png ^ Maito 2015, final version: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809812038314491924/maito2015.pdf Maito 2014: Piketty focuses on rate of return (capital income / private wealth) rather than rate of profit (capital income / fixed capital invested); the former is flat but the latter is falling: [note: why would you just use fixed (constant) capital in the denominator rather than variable and constant capital?] https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809810098469076992/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809810141150445588/unknown.png Roberts 2011: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809821408380846140/unknown.png Freeman 13: the rate of profit has steadily declined since the end of WWII, accounting for finance capital: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/458078153529884683/unknown.png ^ Cockshott 2013: rate of profit tends towards population growth rate + innovation rate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/619687794540937244/unknown.png Dumenil 2002: the Marxian rate of profit has declined in the USA from 1948 to 2000: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/806951067883274259/unknown.png """Broad profit rate = (Net product - Labor compensation) / Fixed capital [....] Narrow profit rate = (Net product - Labor compensation - Indirect business taxes - Net interest) / (Fixed capital + Inventories)""" Acar 2018: citing Dumenil and Levy 2001, profit rate fell 60's-70's, rose 70's-90's: (net product minus total cost of labor) / (value of the stock of physical capital): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809818312941895730/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809818348493471804/unknown.png # non-Marxian studies: secular stagnation: decline of productivity and growth (but not necessarily of profit!) growth in total factor productivity (TFP) has slowed for the past 50 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/498667954125275138/unknown.png ^ get the data from figure 4 here https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/498668925534470168/unknown.png xxx unformatted western economies are growing slower than they were in and before 1950: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/469730493970251777/unknown.png #####c ##### # falling rate of profit: decline of growth and investment studies #####o # rates of growth over time: predicted by both Marxian and accounting rate of profit Zachariah: the Marxian profit rate predicts growth rates in the USA and japan: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542410128767451168/unknown.png # decline of investment over time: world data: very slow, if happening World Bank gross fixed capital formation as percent of GDP graph: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809513101300989982/unknown.png # investment over time: us data: long timeframe: USA, gross investment, 1800's-2010's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809547390108434482/unknown.png Sweden, gross investment, 1800's-2010's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809549368466210816/unknown.png France and UK, gross investment, 1800's-2010's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809549352027947058/unknown.png #####c ##### # falling rate of profit: decline of growth and investment data #####o # terminology terms: "Depreciation, also known as Consumption of Fixed Capital" net investments = gross investment minus depreciation investments includes financial investments GFCF = gross fixed capital formation = value of net additions to fixed assets (excluding financial assets, stocks of inventories, other operating costs) Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj) # fred categories Category: NIPA: Category: Domestic Capital Account: Category: Shares of GDP: # gdp Gross Domestic Product: 1929-2020: # investment Category: Domestic investment: Gross domestic investment: Net domestic investment: # depreciation Category: Consumptions of Fixed Capital: Consumption of fixed capital: Government: 1929-2020: Consumption of fixed capital: Private: 1929-2020: Consumption of fixed capital: Private: Domestic business: 1929-2020: # rate of profit Net value added of nonfinancial corporate business: Compensation of employees: # identity relation: 2020 data Gross: 4393 CFC-p: 2950 CFC-g: 608 Net: 834 4393 - 2950 - 608 = 834 # decline of investment over time: us data: very slow, if happening Shares of gross domestic product: Gross private domestic investment Shares of gross domestic product: Gross private domestic investment: Fixed investment: Nonresidential #####c ##### # falling rate of profit is bad theory: crises over time #####o # crises (falling) Bloomberg 2020: crises have become less common over time -- a higher and higher proportion of countries in the world are growing at all times (fewer recessions): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/765593716098334750/unknown.png # volatility (falling) 2001 article: output volatility has enormously fallen in the US and other high-income countries (minus Japan): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/775020659222511656/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/775020815905062952/unknown.png 2001 article: higher inflation and higher inflation volatility both predict higher output volatility -- but the time trend predicts lower volatility: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/775021162761551872/unknown.png the "Great Moderation" of US gross domestic product growth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/775024492556713984/unknown.png decline in inflation volatility: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/775024341062647849/detmeister-fig2-20170628.png no evidence post-2008 era has seen increased volatility: """In this paper, we focused on break detection in mean and in variance on output growth for a set of advanced countries, based on statistical test procedures. It turns out that the Great Recession period is characterized by large breaks in mean of transitory nature, while dates of breaks in variance are consistent with the Great Moderation period in the eighties. This leads us to conclude that there is no evidence favoring an end of the low output volatility period, but rather that the Great Recession has a dramatically short-lived effect on the output growth but not on its volatility.""" # volatility: to read xxx: wef: 2018 article: 1999 paper: [xxx reread] 2002 paper: 2018 article: [xxx reread] world bank article: [xxx reread] imf: oecd: #####c ##### # # marxian economics: labor theory of value # #####o ##### # labor theory of value: terminology #####o use-value is the utility of a given good to a given consumer (can vary across consumers) exchange-value is the value for which a good can be exchanged from one person to another (aka price) capital-v Value or just "value" is the abstract, combined value of a good labor - physical act of labor, what proletariat does labor power - capacity to do labor, what proletariat sells to bourgeoise # marx quotes: labor vs labor power Marx 1875: wages represent a worker's sale of labor power; he performs both paid labor (labor income, wages) and free labor (profits, surplus value): """Since Lassalle's death, there has asserted itself in our party the scientific understanding that wages are not what they appear to be -- namely, the value, or price, of labor—but only a masked form for the value, or price, of labor power. Thereby, the whole bourgeois conception of wages hitherto, as well as all the criticism hitherto directed against this conception, was thrown overboard once and for all. It was made clear that the wage worker has permission to work for his own subsistence—that is, to live, only insofar as he works for a certain time gratis for the capitalist (and hence also for the latter's co-consumers of surplus value); that the whole capitalist system of production turns on the increase of this gratis labor by extending the working day, or by developing the productivity—that is, increasing the intensity or labor power, etc.; that, consequently, the system of wage labor is a system of slavery, and indeed of a slavery which becomes more severe in proportion as the social productive forces of labor develop, whether the worker receives better or worse payment.""" # marx quotes: ltv only applies to averages of goods Marx 1867: marx asserts that LTV only applies to the averages of various goods, not individual goods: """But without the leave, and behind the back, of our weaver, the old-fashioned mode of weaving undergoes a change. The labour-time that yesterday was without doubt socially necessary to the production of a yard of linen, ceases to be so to-day, a fact which the owner of the money is only too eager to prove from the prices quoted by our friend’s competitors. Unluckily for him, weavers are not few and far between. Lastly, suppose that every piece of linen in the market contains no more labour-time than is socially necessary. In spite of this, all these pieces taken as a whole, may have had superfluous labour-time spent upon them. If the market cannot stomach the whole quantity at the normal price of 2 shillings a yard, this proves that too great a portion of the total labour of the community has been expended in the form of weaving. The effect is the same as if each individual weaver had expended more labour-time upon his particular product than is socially necessary. Here we may say, with the German proverb: caught together, hung together. All the linen in the market counts but as one article of commerce, of which each piece is only an aliquot part. And as a matter of fact, the value also of each single yard is but the materialised form of the same definite and socially fixed quantity of homogeneous human labour.""" #####c ##### # labor theory of value: critique 1: the mainstream theory of general equilibrium #####o # summary The mainstream economic theory of price is a combined supply-side and demand-side model called general equilibrium. Its modern form was formally stated by Ken Arrow and Gerard Debreu in the 1950's. Classical economists Adam Smith and Karl Marx argued that the relative ratio of usual prices (exchange-values) of two goods should be equal to the ratio of labor-time required to usually produce the good. There is no reason to believe price is determined only on the supply side. # general equilibrium texts Debreu 1954: formal proof that under certain assumptions, a general equilibrium occurs (finally, formally demonstrating Walras' argument): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787149857528872980/unknown.png Debreu 1959: enormous book exploring above mathematics: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787151607032578048/unknown.png # the ltv as a supply-side theory Roemer: the labor theory of value is a purely supply-side theory of price, but accurate price theories must include demand-side as well: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/897508359509512202/unknown.png In fact, the labor theory of value is a supply-side theory, in which prices are thought to be determined entirely by their labor costs; in contrast, emphasizing the importance of the degree to which a commodity fulfills desires or needs or welfare in determining its price is the demand side. The correct theory of market price must take both supply and demand into account. There are some special cases in which demand will not affect price, which is technologically determined, but recourse to those cases should not be sought in an attempt to defend the labor theory of value. Roemer: the labor theory of value's theoretical foundation (that the only thing in common between commodities is value embodied from labor) is not valid; all products share, at least, the fact that they are desired (a set of use-values): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/897508330614980608/unknown.png # smith quote: primitive society Smith: If two commodities are exchanged, they must have a common value -- equal amounts of labor "usually required": """In that early and rude state of society which precedes both the accumulation of stock and the appropriation of land, the proportion between the quantities of labour necessary for acquiring different objects, seems to be the only circumstance which can afford any rule for exchanging them for one another. **If, among a nation of hunters, for example, it usually costs twice the labour to kill a beaver which it does to kill a deer, one beaver should naturally exchange for or be worth two deer.** It is natural that what is usually the produce of two days' or two hours' labour, should be worth double of what is usually the produce of one day's or one hour's labour.""" # marx quote: all societies Marx: If two commodities are exchanged, they must have a common value: """Let us take two commodities, e.g. corn and iron. The proportions in which they are exchangeable, whatever those proportions may be, can always be represented by an equation in which a given quantity of corn is equated to some quantity of iron: e.g. 1 quarter corn = x cwt iron. **What does this equation tell us? It tells us that in two different things - in 1 quarter of corn and x cwt of iron, there exists in equal quantities something common to both.** The two things must therefore be equal to a third, which in itself is neither the one nor the other. Each of them, so far as it is exchange val'ue, must therefore be reducible to this third.""" Marx: That common value is homogenous labor-time; the type of work is irrelevant ("joiner" or "mason" or "spinner"): """If then we leave out of consideration the use value of commodities, they have only one common property left, that of being products of labour. But even the product of labour itself has undergone a change in our hands. If we make abstraction from its use value, we make abstraction at the same time from the material elements and shapes that make the product a use value; we see in it no longer a table, a house, yarn, or any other useful thing. Its existence as a material thing is put out of sight. Neither can it any longer be regarded as the product of the labour of the joiner, the mason, the spinner, or of any other definite kind of productive labour. Along with the useful qualities of the products themselves, we put out of sight both the useful character of the various kinds of labour embodied in them, and the concrete forms of that labour; there is nothing left but **what is common to them all; all are reduced to one and the same sort of labour, human labour in the abstract. Let us now consider the residue of each of these products; it consists of the same unsubstantial reality in each, a mere congelation of homogeneous human labour, of labour power expended without regard to the mode of its expenditure.** All that these things now tell us is, that human labour power has been expended in their production, that human labour is embodied in them. When looked at as crystals of this social substance, common to them all, they are – Values.""" #####c ##### # labor theory of value: other marx quotes #####o # marx: ltv only applies to averages of goods marx asserts that LTV only applies to the averages of various goods, not individual goods: """But without the leave, and behind the back, of our weaver, the old-fashioned mode of weaving undergoes a change. The labour-time that yesterday was without doubt socially necessary to the production of a yard of linen, ceases to be so to-day, a fact which the owner of the money is only too eager to prove from the prices quoted by our friend’s competitors. Unluckily for him, weavers are not few and far between. Lastly, suppose that every piece of linen in the market contains no more labour-time than is socially necessary. In spite of this, all these pieces taken as a whole, may have had superfluous labour-time spent upon them. If the market cannot stomach the whole quantity at the normal price of 2 shillings a yard, this proves that too great a portion of the total labour of the community has been expended in the form of weaving. The effect is the same as if each individual weaver had expended more labour-time upon his particular product than is socially necessary. Here we may say, with the German proverb: caught together, hung together. All the linen in the market counts but as one article of commerce, of which each piece is only an aliquot part. And as a matter of fact, the value also of each single yard is but the materialised form of the same definite and socially fixed quantity of homogeneous human labour.""" # marx: only socially necessary productive labor counts todo 2: In the process we are now considering it is of extreme importance, that no more time be consumed in the work of transforming the cotton into yarn than is necessary under the given social conditions. If under normal, i.e., average social conditions of production, a pounds of cotton ought to be made into b pounds of yarn by one hour’s labour, then a day’s labour does not count as 12 hours’ labour unless 12 a pounds of cotton have been made into 12 b pounds of yarn; for in the creation of value, the time that is socially necessary alone counts. Not only the labour, but also the raw material and the product now appear in quite a new light, very different from that in which we viewed them in the labour-process pure and simple. #####c ##### # labor theory of value: magarino quotes #####o Magarino: LTV explains relative prices: The labor theory of value is clearly not a scientfic theory in the sense of belonging to natural sciences, but it is is a scientific theory as it belongs to the social sciences. It is a theory that tries to explain something about political economy. And what exactly does it try to explain? It tries to explain relative prices in capitalist societies where commodity exchange is generalized. Magarino: LTV explains the fundamental value of a commodity (around which actual market prices fluctuate): The definition of value, in Marx, is abstract socially necessary labor time. And this being value, what he now does is say, this is actually going to say a lot about the way in which commodities exchange against one another in the market. And as we are going to see, he's goign to build the prices of production based on this labor, and these are going to be basically the fundamental prices, so these are going to be, in the same way that the fundamental value of a stock in financial theory is the total sum of dividends discounted at the interest rate, in the labor theory of value, we say that the fundamental value of a commodity is this price of production, which is the center of gravity of the actual market price. So it's not going to be necessarily equal, but it's going to the the regulator of market prices, but this is actually testable. Magarino: LTV applies only to commodities, which are objects which people desire to exchange: Marx makes it very clear in the first chapter of Das Kapital, that commodities are useful objects, and therefore people want to purchase them. If someone doesn't want to purchase an object, that object cannot be a commodity, because a commodity is a use value that has an exchange value. If an object has no use value, no one wants to buy it, it cannot have an exchange value, and it's therefore not a commodity. #####c ##### # labor theory of value: critique 3: unnecessary to demonstrate exploitation #####o # alternative explanation for exploitation market socialist Roemer demonstrates that the labor theory of value is unnecessary to explain exploitation, which can instead simply is the proportion of a worker's output that is not paid back to that worker: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787365053317382154/unknown.png Roemer therefore argues that exploitation is a property relation; put another way, exploitation results from scarce capital ownership (few machines) and abundant labor ownership (many workers): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787365135106572288/unknown.png ^ see also this summary: Roemer 1988: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/897508372851589140/unknown.png # other substances than labor can also be exploited Roemer 1988: the labor theory of value relies on the idea that labor is the only common property of commodities; this is absurd: """Marx argued that the one property that all commodities had in common was their production by "abstract labor." It is hard to see why this should be regarded as the one property that all produced commodities have in common. They also share the property of being desired by people; and that property gives rise to a welfare-based theory of value (which is reflected in the statement occurring in neoclassical economic theory that prices are proportional to marginal utilities).""" Roemer 1988: mathematically, exploitation of labor is equivalent to exploitation of any other commodity; the only difference is that exploitation of labor might have normative problems: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787366894851457054/unknown.png #####c ##### # labor theory of value: critique 2: how to measure abstract labor? #####o # nitzan summary Nitzan and Bichler 2009: LTV researchers assume wages equal the value of labor power (among other assumptions), which results in circular reasoning: """The most important of these assumptions are that the value of labour power is proportionate to the actual wage rate, that the ratio of variable capital to surplus value is given by the price ratio of wages to profit, and occasionally also that the value of the depreciated constant capital is equal to a fraction of the capital’s money price. In other words, the researcher assumes precisely what the labour theory of value is supposed to demonstrate.""" # robinson critique Robinson 1974: can't measure abstract labor: """The most important of these assumptions are that the value of labour power is proportionate to the actual wage rate, that the ratio of variable capital to surplus value is given by the price ratio of wages to profit, and occasionally also that the value of the depreciated constant capital is equal to a fraction of the capital’s money price. In other words, the researcher assumes precisely what the labour theory of value is supposed to demonstrate.""" # nitzan-bichler first critique: unmeasurable elementary particle Nitzan and Bichler 2009: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/889620791258411058/6d789685-89e5-4d4f-861a-1bc2687716da.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/889620802398474251/df68a057-7719-4621-873a-30fbf9f2d325.png #####c ##### # labor theory of value: evidence 1: cross-sectional value correlations #####o # summary The correlation between hours of labor in a sector and output of that sector is very weak evidence, as it is a spurious correlation largely based on sector size. # kliman 2002 introduces the spurious correlation critique Kliman 2002 first replicates the strong correlation results of earlier pro-LTV studies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787164779520983050/unknown.png """The measures of distance indicate that prices differed from adjusted values by an average of about +/-8% to +/-13%. Such results, and even somewhat weaker ones, are typically taken as providing strong confirmation that values are ‘close’ to market prices. Yet what can we infer from this ‘closeness’—and what can we not validly infer?""" Kliman 2002 then adjusts the price and value of each sector by its aggregate labour and non-labour costs (which is a strong proxy for industry size): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787166363571453952/unknown.png Kliman 2002: after adjustment for industry size, no correlation between labor input and value occurs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787168573180739604/unknown.png """Once the effects of industry size are removed, it is not the case that prices are high in high-value sectors and low in low-value sectors. Rather, size-adjusted prices and values are close only in the sense that almost all sectors’ prices are close to almost all sectors’ values. I thus find that, on average, a sector’s value is no better a predictor of its price than is a random variable with the same probability distribution as the values.""" Kliman also demonstrates that transforming the values in the way they propose (dividing by total cost) would still produce values in line with theory, if the theory were correct: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787168870120423444/unknown.png """Table 2 also shows that the simulations closely mirror theoretical expectations. This is important to emphasise because it has been suggested (OPE-L Archives, Feb.–Mar., 1999; see esp. posts 439, 443, 457 and 476) that deflation of prices and values by costs destroys a valid relationship between them. The source of the problem is supposedly that costs and values are too highly correlated. Yet although the simulations assumed value– cost correlations almost identical to the actual ones, they yielded average values for the intercept and slope terms extremely close to those predicted by theory, as well as small standard deviations. This again demonstrates that, if the labour theory of relative prices were true, the price–value relationship would be preserved under transformation.""" ^ Zachariah response suggests that industry size deflation is wrong -- but presents no argumentation as to why: """Hence it would be inappropriate to deflate industry outputs by size, as suggested in Kliman [10, sec. 4], in order to address any spurious correlation arising from aggregation. This should rather be done by using less aggregated data or comparing results to alternative predictors as in section 4.3.""" ^ Cockshott response is similar: [1] Question how we should account for "size" of industries and [2] Demonstrate that nonlabor inputs (such as chemicals) don't correlate well with output (labor is near 1:1, chemicals are .5:1): # unfavorable studies: kliman 2004 Kliman 2004: presents an example of the type Nitzan presents more fully: # unfavorable studies: kliman 2005 Kliman 2005: responds to Cockshott and Cottrell's alternate simulation by pointing out that their alternate simulation does not : # unfavorable studies: nitzan and bichler Nitzan and Bichler 2009: presents an example demonstrating that, even when price and value are totally uncorrelated, aggregate price and value will be strongly correlated (demonstrating that this correlation is spurious): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787375824458350612/unknown.png ^ Google Sheets version of the above: # cockshott's response to nitzan and bichler Cockshott Cottrell Baeza 2014: todo reread xxx: Baeza 2010: todo reread xxx: # blair fix's response to cockshott Blair Fix 2021: LTV is unnecessary, as the correlation observed can be produced by wages bounded by egalitarianism: # favorable studies: cockshott, cottrell, zacharaiah Cockshott 2018: integrated labor inputs to a sector strongly predict the total value of that sector: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542389573125406720/unknown.png Zachariah 2006: integrated labor inputs to a sector strongly predict the total value of that sector (including in deviation): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542407942561988638/unknown.png Zachariah 2006: other integrated inputs -- such as agriculture, chemicals, fuel, energy -- are much weaker predictors of total value than integrated labor inputs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542408662367469579/unknown.png ^ all three author's arguments above are vulnerable to Kliman's critique that total size is the cause of spurious correlation # favorable studies: Shaikh Shaikh 1984: Shaikh 1994: Shaikh 1998: table 15.1, MAWD: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787171962405257236/unknown.png ^ shaikh's argument in all of the above papers is vulnerable to Kliman's critique that total size is the cause of spurious correlation # favorable studies: Tsoulfidis and Paitaridis Tsoulfidis and Paitaridis 2016: xxxx #####c ##### # labor theory of value: evidence 2: prices vs supply ##### # summary The stickiness of prices is **very weak evidence** for the labor theory of value. It can easily be explained with sticky prices, existing stocks of goods, co-movement of supply and demand, etc. This leaves little need for the LTV (a more extraordinary claim). # how long do sticky prices last? Bils and Klenow 2004: between 1995 and 2002, the median good held its price for a median of 4.5 months: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/787188174027620372/unknown.png # business cycle supply and price variation Puty 2007: prices vary much less (about 3-4x) than supply over a business cycle: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/550853466059309078/unknown.png Shaikh 2016: prices vary much less (about 3-4x) than supply over a business cycle: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/550852581551767562/unknown.png #####c ##### # labor theory of value: evidence 3: correlation of wage/capital ratio and profit ratio #####o # high-capital low-profit (medium quality, but neoclassical makes similar prediction) industries with higher capital intensity ("more machines per laborer") have a lower profit rate, as the Marxist equation RoP = 1/((CC/VC)+1) ≈ 1/[constant capital/variable capital] ≈ [variable capital]/[constant capital] would predict: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/542408305847304201/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # historical materialism and class struggle # #####o ##### # class structure: have we entered managerial capitalism? #####o # dumeil-levy thesis: managers have displaced capitalists Dumeil 2018: the capitalist class (own means of production) have been replaced by managers (control big companies) as those who take all the decisions that matter: xxx read ^ review of above: # capitalists: people who earn sufficient capital gains to choose whether to labor or not Mohun 2014 preprint: ~2% of the US population are 'capitalists' and could subside on capital gains alone; the portion of capitalists and the portion of income going to capitalists both decreased until the 1970's and increased afterwards: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/540356346176864295/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/981789150061666374/unknown.png """Suppose the capitalist-managerial class were defined as that group that has suffcient assets to generate a nonlabour income on which a typical member could survive without having to enter the labour market. This is independent of whether they choose to enter it (although the PS data show that on average they do so enter it); because of their level of nonlabour income, they are genuinely free to choose whether or not to take employment. Call this capitalist-managerial class "quasi-capitalist managers" or "Qc managersí for short." Managers who are in a structurally different position, being forced to sell their labour-power, are noncapitalist-managers. Still managers, with supervisory responsibilities in production, they are not free to choose whether or not to take employment, because they do not have sufficient assets to generate a nonlabour income enabling them not to enter the labour market. Hence call them "labour-power dependent managers" or "Lpd managers" for short.""" ^ published version: Mohun 2015: xxx: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779195870142529596/unknown.png # roemer: neoclassical maximizing and wealth inequality is sufficient to yield class Roemer 1986: if we assume unequal wealth and rational maximizing, five classes of behavior naturally emerges from three behaviors: [1] working one's own capital; [2] hiring others to work one's capital; [3] selling labor on the labor market: this yields pure capitalists , small capitalists , artisans , semiproletarians , and proletarians : https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1001761178101497897/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1001761189795209256/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1001761200289353788/unknown.png Roemer 1994: under capitalism, capital-owners have more interest in profit-increasing public bads (like pollution); under socialism, capital ownership is social and interest in public bads is lower: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/998029182632218654/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/998029285715615895/unknown.png # employment of the highest-income people in the USA (yes, they do work) Bakija 2012: occupations of the top 1% by year: ~30% management, ~16% medicine, ~12% finance, ~7% lawyers, ~4% STEM, ~6% not working, <5% each all else: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779166922217357322/unknown.png Bakija 2012: occupations of the top 0.1% by year: ~40% management, ~15% finance, ~6% medical, ~6% not working, <5% each all else: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779165967850143799/unknown.png Bakija 2012: just 13.6+4.6+1.7=19.9% of high-income individuals were managers of a closely-held business, suggesting that most high-income individuals receive very high compensation for labor: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779167648063815740/unknown.png # managers vs workers Wright 1997: most managers are simply workers with skills; the working class proper was still over 70% of the labour force, excluding managers and capitalists: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779196995339288596/vidal_fig1.png # marx quotes on "functioning capitalists" (owner-managers) declining and money-capitalists (owners) emerging Marx 1894: manager-capitalists are akin to orchestra managers -- they need not pay their players, the theater owner does: """The capitalist mode of production has brought matters to a point where the work of supervision, entirely divorced from the ownership of capital, is always readily obtainable. It has, therefore, come to be useless for the capitalist to perform it himself. **An orchestra conductor need not own the instruments of his orchestra, nor is it within the scope of his duties as conductor to have anything to do with the "wages" of the other musicians.**""" Marx 1894: the rise of publicly-traded companies has eliminated the need for direct manager-capitalist owners: """The wages of management both for the commercial and industrial manager are completely isolated from the profits of enterprise in the co-operative factories of labourers, as well as in capitalist stock companies. [....] Stock companies in general — developed with the credit system — have an increasing tendency to separate this work of management as a function from the ownership of capital, be it self-owned or borrowed. Just as the development of bourgeois society witnessed a separation of the functions of judges and administrators from land-ownership, whose attributes they were in feudal times. But since, on the one hand, the mere owner of capital, the money-capitalist, has to face the functioning capitalist, while money-capital itself assumes a social character with the advance of credit, being concentrated in banks and loaned out by them instead of its original owners, and since, on the other hand, **the mere manager who has no title whatever to the capital, whether through borrowing it or otherwise, performs all the real functions pertaining to the functioning capitalist as such, only the functionary remains and the capitalist disappears as superfluous from the production process.**""" Marx 1894: """III. Formation of stock companies. Thereby: [....] Transformation of the actually functioning capitalist into a mere manager, administrator of other people's capital, and of the owner of capital into a mere owner, a mere money-capitalist. Even if the dividends which they receive include the interest and the profit of enterprise, i.e., the total profit (for the salary of the manager is, or should be, simply the wage of a specific type of skilled labour, whose price is regulated in the labour-market like that of any other labour), this total profit is henceforth received only in the form of interest, i.e., as mere compensation for owning capital that now is entirely divorced from the function in the actual process of reproduction, just as this function in the person of the manager is divorced from ownership of capital.""" """In stock companies the function is divorced from capital ownership, hence also labour is entirely divorced from ownership of means of production and surplus-labour. This result of the ultimate development of capitalist production is a necessary transitional phase towards the reconversion of capital into the property of producers, although no longer as the private property of the individual producers, but rather as the property of associated producers, as outright social property. On the other hand, the stock company is a transition toward the conversion of all functions in the reproduction process which still remain linked with capitalist property, into mere functions of associated producers, into social functions.""" #####c ##### # on the nature of the state #####o # marxist definition of the state Marxists define the state as a tool of class warfare, not of "legitimate violence": """The state is the institution of organised violence which is used by the ruling class of a country to maintain the conditions of its rule. Thus, it is only in a society which is divided between hostile social classes that the state exists[.] [....] The machinery of violence that the bourgeoisie has selected, trained and appointed for the purpose of hoodwinking and crushing the workers[.]""" # engels quotes: state as tool of class oppression Engels 1875: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/887025818474262578/unknown.png """Now, since the state is merely a transitional institution of which use is made in the struggle, in the revolution, to keep down one’s enemies by force, it is utter nonsense to speak of a free people’s state; so long as the proletariat still makes use of the state, it makes use of it, not for the purpose of freedom, but of keeping down its enemies and, as soon as there can be any question of freedom, the state as such ceases to exist.""" Engels 1884: the state arose to control class divisions; as class divisions disappear, we will "put the whole state machinery" into "the museum of antiquities, next to the spinning wheel and the bronze axe": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/887028460776730714/unknown.png """The state, therefore, has not existed from all eternity. There have been societies which have managed without it, which had no notion of the state or state power. At a definite stage of economic development, which necessarily involved the cleavage of society into classes, the state became a necessity because of this cleavage. We are now rapidly approaching a stage in the development of production at which the existence of these classes has not only ceased to be a necessity, but becomes a positive hindrance to production. They will fall as inevitably as they once arose. The state inevitably falls with them. The society which organizes production anew on the basis of free and equal association of the producers will put the whole state machinery where it will then belong – into the museum of antiquities, next to the spinning wheel and the bronze ax.""" # engels quotes: government and authority Engels 1872: #####c ##### # stadial / stage view of history / dialectical materialism / economic determinism #####o Musto 2020: todo unformatted xxx # pure stadial history and pure determinist/materialist history do not exist Laibman 2005: there is no such thing as a pure stadial society and it is not certain that one societal form will progress to the next one: """The paradigmatic case for [theoretical stages of development] is the general theory of social evolution, in which a discrete set of identifiable modes of production (e.g., communal, slave, feudal, capitalist, socialist/communist) succeed each other, in that order and only that order, each requiring the preceding and in turn laying required foundations for the following, and each containing an inherent (immanent) contradiction ensuring its progressive insufficiency and eventual replacement. **This sequence, however, exists nowhere in real history. History shows only a complex variety of societies in which the various modes of production are intertwined; transitions are combined in character and may be elongated or even thwarted by social, geographical and human-but-accidental external circumstances; and diffusion from one formation to another creates an open-ended (not infinite) variety of combinations, cycles, torch-relay leaps (Semenov, 1980), even regressions. In particular, there is no presumption that any given evolutionary path, or indeed that of humankind as such, will be completed: there is no guarantee of survival, let alone of fulfillment of potentials perceived in ye""" ^ Laibman 2005: Laibman still defends a stadial view of history by combining a stadial model with "capitalist diffusion" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/886763668157661184/unknown.png re is no guarantee of survival, let alone of fulfillment of potentials perceived in yet-to-appear stages of development.5 Theo- retical determinacy at the level # stadial thinking: marxists.org Marx and Engels had four basic forms of societal evolution: tribal, ancient, feudal, and capitalist: ^ critique by Marxists.org: three basic forms: tribal, feudal, capitalist: """This leads us to the necessity of critiquing early Marxists' historical conceptions. We now know countless examples of societies that had feudalism, sometimes with slaves, but without a slave society[.]""" """Thus, it is more accurate to describe the general evolution of human history as passing from tribal to feudal to capitalist society. While history is certainly not that simplistic, and there is a lot of uneven and blurred development, when looking at the essence of the productive system, slaves are not unique, nor is slave society common.""" primitive communism: tribal mode of production / tribal society, no social classes: antiquity: ancient or slave mode of production / ancient or slave society, classes are slaves, freemen, landlords, despots: medieval: Teutonic or feudal mode of production / Teutonic or feudal society, classes are serfs-bondsmen-peasants and lords-nobility: # marx and engels quotes on stadial stages Marx 1859: mankind proceeds through "Asiatic", "ancient", "feudal", and "bourgeois" epochs of modes of production: """Mankind thus inevitably sets itself only such tasks as it is able to solve, since closer examination will always show that the problem itself arises only when the material conditions for its solution are already present or at least in the course of formation. In broad outline, the Asiatic, ancient,[A] feudal and modern bourgeois modes of production may be designated as epochs marking progress in the economic development of society. The bourgeois mode of production is the last antagonistic form of the social process of production – antagonistic not in the sense of individual antagonism but of an antagonism that emanates from the individuals' social conditions of existence – but the productive forces developing within bourgeois society create also the material conditions for a solution of this antagonism. The prehistory of human society accordingly closes with this social formation.""" Engels 1884: four epochs: tribal society (savagery, barbarism -- claywork, animal domestication), ancient society (slavery), fuedal society (serfdom), capitalist society (wage labor): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/886868878230188042/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/886868534876065832/unknown.png """Morgan was the first specialist to attempt to introduce a definite order into the prehistory of man; unless important additional material necessitates alterations, his classification may be expected to remain in force. Of the three main epochs, savagery, barbarism and civilisation, he is naturally concerned only with the first two, and with the transition to the third.""" """Savagery – the period in which man’s appropriation of products in their natural state predominates; the products of human art are chiefly instruments which assist this appropriation. Barbarism – the period during which man learns to breed domestic animals and to practice agriculture, and acquires methods of increasing the supply of natural products by human activity.""" """With slavery, which attained its fullest development under civilization, came the first great cleavage of society into an exploiting and an exploited class. This cleavage persisted during the whole civilized period. Slavery is the first form of exploitation, the form peculiar to the ancient world; it is succeeded by serfdom in the middle ages, and wage-labor in the more recent period. These are the three great forms of servitude, characteristic of the three great epochs of civilization; open, and in recent times disguised, slavery always accompanies them.""" # capitalism produces growth, which is key to producing communism Marx 1847: capitalism, wage labor, and world markets will create the means of production that allow the "emancipatoin of the proletariat and foundation of a new society": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/886732138576228432/unknown.png """Before we conclude, let us draw attention to the positive aspect of wage labour. α) If one says "positive aspect of wage labour" one says "positive aspect of capital", of large-scale industry, of free competition, of the world market, and I do not need to explain to you in detail how without these production relations neither the means of production—the material means for the emancipation of the proletariat and the foundation of a new society—would have been created, nor would the proletariat itself have taken to the unification and development through which it is really capable of revolutionising the old society and itself. *Equalisation* of wages. β) Let us take wages themselves in the essence of their evil, that my activity becomes a commodity, that I become utterly and absolutely for sale.""" # capitalism produces growth Marx 1848: capitalism has produced more economic growth than all previous economic systems combined: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/863919870126456842/unknown.png """**The bourgeoisie, during its rule of scarce one hundred years, has created more massive and more colossal productive forces than have all preceding generations together.** Subjection of Nature’s forces to man, machinery, application of chemistry to industry and agriculture, steam-navigation, railways, electric telegraphs, clearing of whole continents for cultivation, canalisation of rivers, whole populations conjured out of the ground — what earlier century had even a presentiment that such productive forces slumbered in the lap of social labour?""" #####c ##### # post-scarcity and fully automated luxury gay space communism #####o # engels quotes about increased machinery and achieving socialism-communism Engels 1847: private property will likely be abolished gradually, as the means of production (capital) are increased: """Question 17: **Will it be possible for private property to be abolished at one stroke?** Answer: **No, no more than existing forces of production can at one stroke be multiplied to the extent necessary for the creation of a communal society. In all probability, the proletarian revolution will transform existing society gradually and will be able to abolish private property only when the means of production are available in sufficient quantity.""" Engels 1847: establishment of "a plan" (socialist central planning) will prevent crises, will redirect overproduction towards people's needs (to be consumed), and "create new needs and at the same time the means to satisfy them": """Question 20: What will be the consequences of the final abolition of private ownership? Answer: Above all, through society's taking out of the hands of the private capitalists the use of all the productive forces and means of communication as well as the exchange and distribution of products and managing them according to a plan corresponding to the means available and the needs of the whole of society, all the evil consequences of the present running of large-scale industry will be done away with. There will be an end of crises; the extended production, which under the present system of society means overproduction and is such a great cause of misery, will then not even be adequate and will have to be expanded much further. Instead of creating misery, overproduction beyond the immediate needs of society will mean the satisfaction of the needs of all, create new needs and at the same time the means to satisfy them.""" # marx: consequences of increased automation on nature of labor Marx 1857: as capital increases, labor increasingly acts as the regulator of production instead of the direct producer: """Labour no longer appears so much to be included within the production process; rather, the human being comes to relate more as watchman and regulator to the production process itself.""" """He steps to the side of the production process instead of being its chief actor. **In this transformation, it is neither the direct human labour he himself performs, nor the time during which he works, but rather the appropriation of his own general productive power, his understanding of nature and his mastery over it** by virtue of his presence as a social body – it is, in a word, the development of the social individual which appears as the great foundation-stone of production and of wealth.""" Marx 1857: increased automation results in increased free time, art, and science: """The free development of individualities, and hence not the reduction of necessary labour time so as to posit surplus labour, but rather the general reduction of the necessary labour of society to a minimum, which then corresponds to the artistic, scientific etc. development of the individuals in the time set free, and with the means created, for all of them. **Capital itself is the moving contradiction, [in] that it presses to reduce labour time to a minimum, while it posits labour time, on the other side, as sole measure and source of wealth.**""" # marx, luxemburg: contradiction of capitalism and full automation Marx 1857: capitalism cannot reduce labor to zero without eliminating labor as source of value: """Forces of production and social relations – two different sides of the development of the social individual – appear to capital as mere means, and are merely means for it to produce on its limited foundation. In fact, however, they are the material conditions to blow this foundation sky-high. ‘Truly wealthy a nation, when the working day is 6 rather than 12 hours. Wealth is not command over surplus labour time’ (real wealth), ‘but rather, disposable time outside that needed in direct production, for every individual and the whole society.’""" Luxemburg 1913: socialism will open much larger areas of society to the "triumphal march of the machine", such that the "technical marvels" of capitalism will be "child's play": """[I]f the capitalist profit motive is abolished and a social organisation of labour introduced, the marginal use of the machine will suddenly be increased by the whole extent of the capitalist surplus value, so that an enormous field, not to be gauged as yet, will be open to the triumphal march of the machine. This would be tangible proof that the capitalist mode of production, alleged to spur on to the optimum technical development, in fact sets large social limits to technical progress, in form of the profit motive on which it is based. It would show that as soon as these limits are abolished, technical progress will develop such a powerful drive that the technical marvels of capitalist production will be child’s play in comparison.""" Luxemburg 1913: machinery under capitalism is economical only when labor cost to reproduce labor ("subsistence wage") > labor cost to produce machine; under socialism, machinery is economical when (labor required with machine, over machine lifetime - labor required without machine, over machine lifetime) > labor cost to produce machine: """The growth of the constant at the expense of the variable capital is only the capitalist expression of the general effects of increasing labour productivity. The formula c greater than v (c > v), translated from the language of capitalism into that of the social labour process, means only that the higher the productivity of human labour, the shorter the time needed to change a given quantity of means of production into finished products.(13) This is a universal law of human labour. It has been valid in all pre-capitalist forms of production and will also be valid in the future in a socialist order of society. [....] The cost of the labour power which is replaced by the machine represents the lowest limit of the applicability of the machine, which means that the capitalist becomes interested in a machine only when the costs of its production [...] amount to less than the wages of the workers it replaces. [....] From the point of view of the social labour process, which is the only one to matter in a socialist society, the machine competes not with the labour that is necessary to maintain the worker but with the labour he actually performs. In other words, in a society that is not governed by the profit motive but aims at saving human labour, the use of machinery is economic-aims-indicated just as soon as it can save more human labour than is necessary for making it[.]""" #####c #####c ##### # # justifications for socialism: scientific socialism and ethical socialism # #####o ##### # ethical socialism: marx rejected explicit ethical socialism #####o # is there a consensus? authors disagree Wolff and Leopold 2021: there is no consensus on the role of morality in Marx: """The precise role of morality and moral criticism in Marx’s critique of contemporary capitalist society is much discussed, and there is no settled scholarly consensus.""" Riley 1983: calling Marx a nonmoralist is not controversial: """This "causal" understanding of character as a "product" is the only really radical argument in Miller's paper, since his reading of the details of Marx's "nonmoral" social theory is helpful but (with one large exception) not terribly controversial.""" # why it matters: communism deserves moral justification Brenkert 1983: summarizes the moralist position: Even more disturbingly, this interpretation suggests no basis for Marx’s advocacy of communism other than that (a) it was his own personal view — i.e. an arbitrary ultimate commitment — or that (b) he simply opted to defend morally that which he saw as inevitable — i.e. a kind of moral futurism or fatalism. Both suggestions leave much to be desired. The former contends that Marx’s ethics are ultimately personal and arbitrary, even though, throughout his life, Marx emphasised the social dimensions of life, and argued that communism would be founded upon a rational, non-arbitrary, basis. The latter leaves us wondering why, if it was bound to come, Marx worked for that moral future. Indeed, how could he — as he did — condemn some of those things which came to pass within his own lifetime? # anti-moralism: marx rejected ethical postulates Brenkert 1983: summarizes the anti-moralist position: """One widespread view is that Marx had no ethics, he rejected morality, and envisioned a communism beyond both. [1] Marx is supposed to have founded a science which sought in an objective, morally neutral manner to understand the origin, growth, and collapse of capitalism as well as the ultimate succession of communism. One only has to read in the history of Marxism to appreciate how generally this view has been defended. Comments such as the following are wholly common: "Marxism is distinguished from all other socialist systems by its anti-ethical tendency. In all of Marxism from beginning to end, there is not a grain of ethics, and consequently no more of an ethical judgment than an ethical postulate. [2]" [....] Accordingly, it can be said without exaggeration that it has seemed to many that it is misleading at best, wrong-headed at worst, to speak of Marx having an ethics. He simply does not fit into the categories into which we expect those having an ethics and reflecting on morality to fit.""" Luxemburg 1899: moral justification of socialism is childish compared to Marxist analysis: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/887040858359205898/unknown.png """The theory of basing socialism on the moral notion of justice, on a struggle against the mode of distribution, of class antagonism as an antagonism between the poor and the rich, the effort to graft the “cooperative principle” on to capitalist economy—all the nice notions found in Bernstein’s doctrine—already existed before him. And these theories were, in their time, in spite of their insufficiency, effective theories of the proletarian class struggle. They were the children’s seven-league boots thanks to which the proletariat learned to walk upon the scene of history.""" Sombart 1892: there is "not a grain of ethics in the whole of Marxism": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879922353503625216/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/879922267247743068/unknown.png Review of *Sozialismus and Kapitalistische Gesellschaftsordnung* by Julius Wolf, in Braun's Archive for Social Legislation and Statistics [Archiv für soziale Gesetzgebung und Statistik] Volume 5: """Wolf ought to have recognized this above all: that Marxism differs from all other socialist systems, which I propose to summarize under the designation of ethical socialism, by its anti-ethical tendency. There is not a grain of ethics in the whole of Marxism from start to finish, but consequently no more an ethical judgment than an ethical postulate. Neither does Marx claim at any point that surplus value is not "due" to the employer, nor that the worker has a "right to the full yield of labor". Now, however, a large part of Wolf's criticism amounts to an ethical argument with Marx about what is "due" or "improper" in today's order of production and income distribution [.]""" """Das hätte Wolf vor allem einsehen müssen: dafs sich der Marxismus von allen übrigen sozialistischen Systemen, die ich im Gegensatz zu ihm unter der Bezeichnung des ethischen Sozialismus zusammenzufassen vorschlage, durch seine antiethische Tendenz unterscheidet. Im ganzen Marxismus von vorn bis hinten steckt auch nicht ein Gran Ethik, folg- lich aber ebensowenig ein ethisches Urteil als ein ethisches Postulat. Weder behauptet Marx an irgend einer Stelle, dafs der Mehrwert dem Unternehmer nicht "gebühre" noch dafs der Arbeiter ein "Recht auf den vollen Arbeitsertrag" habe. Nun läuft aber ein grofser Teil der Wolfschen Kritik auf eine ethische Auseinandersetzung mit Marx über das "Gebührliche" -- oder "Ungebührliche" in der heutigen Produktionsordnung und Einkommensverteilung hinaus[.]""" # non-moralism: marx rejected doctrinal/universal morality but not rejecting moral values Brenkert 1983: summarizes the non-moralist position: """There are, however, relatively straightforward problems with this view. For example, many of those who hold this view attribute a rather empiricist notion of science to Marx. But it is doubtful that Marx used such a notion of science. Indeed, Marx’s claims about science must be understood in light of Hegel’s claims about science. Marx’s views were significantly influenced by Hegel — and surely Hegelian science was not empiricist. Secondly, it is often noted that Marx was not, as one would expect a scientist to be, a neutral, dispassionate observer in his writings. This is as evident in his writings on political economy as it is in his newspaper articles. In Capital, for example, he condemns the egoism, exploitation, estrangement, degradation, etc. which capitalism brings in its train. Marx’s writings are pervaded by a normative and partisan atmosphere. His commitment to the particular kind of social order which he sees his work as advancing is always obvious and constantly present. Further, this commitment is not simply a personal commitment, but one which he clearly believes that others should share. Finally, if Marx were a scientist without an ethics, it is unclear how we are to understand his many comments that communism will constitute a ‘higher’ plane of existence for humanity, that there is a ‘progressive’ nature to history, and that communism will institute a ‘true realm’ of freedom.""" Rosen 2000: Marx rejected certain moral doctrines but did not reject moral values: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/877961911214419978/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/877961949906894928/unknown.png """On the one hand, Marx has a number of uncompromisingly negative things to say about morality. Moreover, after 1845 at least, he affirms that his own theory is not a utopian or ethical one but "real positive science". Yet, on the other hand, much of the language that he uses to describe capitalism is plainly condemnatory (for instance, that it is antagonistic, oppressive and exploitative). Does this not represent an inconsistency on Marx's part? Is he not moralizing and rejecting morality at the same time? [....] The interpretation depends on a contrast between certain doctrines typical of moral philosophy (which, it will be argued, Marx rejects) and the rejection of ethical values as such (to which, it will be argued, he is not thereby committed). Marx's antipathy to morality and moral theory as he found it in his own day is to be explained, I shall argue, by the role that morality plays, in his view, in helping to sustain the existing social order, as ideology.""" Miller 1983: """Distinctions between decency and indecency, what ought to be done and what ought not, have a role in his outlook. His arguments, primarily directed at choices among political and economic systems, may leave standing most ordinary morality concerning actions towards individuals. But it is also natural to adopt the narrower usage, and to see Marx as advancing a nonmorality.""" # moralism: marx had a moral system, but did not explicitly state it Brenkert 1983: summarizes the moralist position: """I shall argue instead that Marx has a moral theory and that this moral theory was integrally part of his ‘scientific’ views. [....] I do not maintain that Marx formulated a moral theory in a manner comparable to the moral theories which past or present moral philosophers have formulated. Marx did not write a treatise, any pamphlets, or even any essays on ethics and morality. At the most we have various sections in larger works, paragraphs, and scattered comments on ethics and morality which are interwoven with his reflections on history, economics, and politics. Further, on those occasions on which he does speak of ethics he does not engage in moral reflection as traditional and contemporary moral philosophers have. He does not pose for himself the question, ‘What ought I to do?’ as a way of entering into moral reflection. He does not set out, as Kant and others have, to search for and establish the supreme principle of morality by argument and consideration of the reasons and views of others. Thus, he does not, in any obvious way, urge the universalisation of the maxims of our actions (as Kant did) or the calculation of the greatest good our actions might promote (as J.S. Mill did). Such individual questions are quite secondary to Marx’s concern for the social system within which people raise such questions. Nor does Marx attempt to develop a theory of the meaning and purpose of moral statements as individuals make them. As such, Marx was not a moral philosopher. There are few, I think, who would deny this. However, it does not follow that Marx did not have a moral theory. A person may be said to have a moral theory, even though he may never have explicitly formulated it. # moralism with performative non-moralism: marx rejected morality to distinguish himself, but accepted it Wolff and Leopold 2021: Marx goes beyond "theoretical necessity" in critiquing morality (and refusing to use it as a justifier) in order to distinguish himself from contemporary reformist socialists and bourgeois do-gooders: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/877965566143504495/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/877965631171989574/unknown.png """Marx wanted to distance himself from these other socialist traditions, and a key point of distinction was to argue that the route to understanding the possibilities of human emancipation lay in the analysis of historical and social forces, not in morality.""" """Communism clearly advances human flourishing, in Marx’s view. The only reason for denying that, in Marx’s vision, it would amount to a good society is a theoretical antipathy to the word “good”. And here the main point is that, in Marx’s view, communism would not be brought about by high-minded benefactors of humanity. Quite possibly his determination to retain this point of difference between himself and other socialists led him to disparage the importance of morality to a degree that goes beyond the call of theoretical necessity.""" Cohen 1983: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/877973592653045770/unknown.png """And perhaps Marx did not always realize that he thought capitalism was unjust. For there exist texts, ably exploited by Wood, which suggest that, at least when writing them, Marx thought all non-relativist notions of justice and injustice were moonshine. If the texts really show that he thought so, then I would conclude that, at least sometimes, Marx mistakenly thought that Marx did not believe that capitalism was unjust, because he was confused about justice. (The italicized thesis is misreported, in two different ways, at pp. 9 and 42 of Marx and Morality (op. cit.) because of bad (copy?) editing.) At one point Wood approaches a thesis about Marx on capitalism and justice which resembles the one just stated, but he retreats from it on the ground that 'there is no sign that Marx sees anything morally wrong or unjust about . . . capitalism' (p. I5'). I think calling it 'robbery' is such a sign, and that saying 'Capitalist justice is truly to be wondered at!' (Capital, Volume I, op cit., p. 66o), with the sense the remark carries in its context, is another one.""" ^ Wolff and Leopold 2021: summary of Cohen 1983: In other words, Marx, like so many of us, did not have perfect knowledge of his own mind. In his explicit reflections on the justice of capitalism he was able to maintain his official view. But in less guarded moments his real view slips out, even if never in explicit language. Brenkert 1983: summarizes why Marx rejected contemporary moralities: """Marx was indeed opposed to the morality and ethics of his time. They represented to him a kind of dream-like acquiescence in the face of the increasing degradation suffered by larger and larger numbers of people in modern society. Either they amounted to a kind of simple moralism in which moral conclusions were drawn, society was condemned or criticised, but (after all this) everything remained simply as it was. Or they amounted to an attempt to justify the status quo. [....] This opposition to the ineffectiveness, as well as the illusions, of morality and ethics can be found throughout Marx’s writings[.] [....] With regard to moral philosophy, Marx’s well-known eleventh thesis on Feuerbach captures his view perhaps most succinctly: ‘The philosophers have only interpreted the world; the point, however, is to change it’ (Theses on Feuerbach). As opposed to the moral philosophers and moralists of his time, Marx insisted that any creditable critical theory of man and society must clearly distinguish between appearance and reality. It must relentlessly pursue and analyse ‘the common wisdom’ for the realities it conceals. Furthermore, such an account must show how human society really operates, how it can be and must be changed. In short, any critical science must be illusionless and effective.""" # marx anti-moralist quotes Marx 1848: accepts the accusation that communism does "abolishes" "all morality": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/877959345462202378/unknown.png [Accusation:] """There are, besides, eternal truths, such as Freedom, Justice, etc., that are common to all states of society. But Communism abolishes eternal truths, it abolishes all religion, and all morality, instead of constituting them on a new basis; it therefore acts in contradiction to all past historical experience.""" [Response:] """The Communist revolution is the most radical rupture with traditional property relations; no wonder that its development involved the most radical rupture with traditional ideas.""" Marx 1845: communist and socialist views "shattered the basis of all morality": """[I]t was, of course, only possible to discover all this when it became possible to criticise the conditions of production and intercourse in the hitherto existing world, i.e., when the contradiction between the bourgeoisie and the proletariat had given rise to communist and socialist views. That shattered the basis of all morality, whether the morality of asceticism or of enjoyment. Our insipid, moralising Sancho believes, of course, as his whole book shows, that it is merely a matter of a different morality, of what appears to him a new outlook on life, of “getting out of one’s head” a few “fixed ideas”, to make everyone happy and able to enjoy life.""" # marx nonmoralist quotes Marx 1867: the fact that the seller of labor power (the worker) does not get as much value as the buyer (the capitalist) is not "an injury to the seller": """The fact that half a day’s labour is necessary to keep the labourer alive during 24 hours, does not in any way prevent him from working a whole day. Therefore, the value of labour-power, and the value which that labour-power creates in the labour-process, are two entirely different magnitudes; and this difference of the two values was what the capitalist had in view, when he was purchasing the labour-power. [....] The circumstance, that on the one hand the daily sustenance of labour-power costs only half a day’s labour, while on the other hand the very same labour-power can work during a whole day, that consequently the value which its use during one day creates, is double what he pays for that use, this circumstance is, without doubt, a piece of good luck for the buyer, but by no means an injury to the seller.""" # marx moralist themes Cohen 1983: Marx clearly implies morality in his frequent use of "theft" to describe profit and capitalization: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/877972176341454888/unknown.png """In this operation 'equivalent is exchanged for equivalent', since the worker gets the full value of his labour power, but 'the transaction is for all that only the old dodge of every conqueror who buys commodities from the conquered with the money he has robbed them of (mit ihrem eignen, geraubten Geld)', since capitalists pay wages with money they get by selling what workers produce. Thus the worker, though paid the full value of his labour power, does not get the extra, or surplus, value he produces, and capitalist profit, and therefore capitalism, are 'based on theft (Diebstahl) of another's labour time' (Grundrisse, Penguin, 1973, p. 705). Now when Marx speaks here (and elsewhere: this is not an isolated text) of 'robbery' (or 'theft') he cannot mean 'robbery according to the rules of capitalism', since the transaction he considers robbery obeys those rules: what is wrong with capitalism is that the appropriation of surplus labour is not, by its rules, robbery, that when and because the worker gets the full value of his labour power, he is robbed.""" Cohen 1983: Marx cannot be speaking of "robbery" under the rules/morality of capitalism, since profit and capitalization are not against the rules/morality of capitalism; this suggests a rejection of relativism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/877971897478967336/unknown.png """Now when Marx speaks here (and elsewhere: this is not an isolated text) of 'robbery' (or 'theft') he cannot mean 'robbery according to the rules of capitalism', since the transaction he considers robbery obeys those rules: what is wrong with capitalism is that the appropriation of surplus labour is not, by its rules, robbery, that when and because the worker gets the full value of his labour power, he is robbed.""" # marx moralist quotes Marx 1867: "Capitalist justice is truly to be wondered at!" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/877973292298944512/unknown.png """Admire this capitalistic justice! The owner of land, of houses, the businessman, when expropriated by “improvements” such as railroads, the building of new streets, &c., not only receives full indemnity. He must, according to law, human and divine, be comforted for his enforced “abstinence” over and above this by a thumping profit. The labourer, with his wife and child and chattels, is thrown out into the street, and — if he crowds in too large numbers towards quarters of the town where the vestries insist on decency, he is prosecuted in the name of sanitation!""" Marx 1857: "the evil of bourgeois society": """The way to do this: abolish prices. And how? By doing away with exchange value. But this problem arises: exchange corresponds to the bourgeois organization of society. Hence one last problem: to revolutionize bourgeois society economically. It would then have been self-evident from the outset that the evil of bourgeois society is not to be remedied by ‘transforming’ the banks or by founding a rational ‘money system’.""" Marx 1864: capitalism has produced "broken health, tainted morals, and mental ruin" of workers: """If you want to know under what conditions of broken health, tainted morals, and mental ruin that “intoxicating augmentation of wealth and power... entirely confined to classes of property” was, and is, being produced by the classes of labor, look to the picture hung up in the last Public Health Report of the workshops of tailors, printers, and dressmakers!""" Engels 1847: establishment of "a plan" (socialist central planning) will prevent "all the evil consequences" of capitalism and achieve "the satisfaction of the needs of all": """Question 20: What will be the consequences of the final abolition of private ownership? Answer: Above all, through society's taking out of the hands of the private capitalists the use of all the productive forces and means of communication as well as the exchange and distribution of products and managing them according to a plan corresponding to the means available and the needs of the whole of society, all the evil consequences of the present running of large-scale industry will be done away with. There will be an end of crises; the extended production, which under the present system of society means overproduction and is such a great cause of misery, will then not even be adequate and will have to be expanded much further. Instead of creating misery, overproduction beyond the immediate needs of society will mean the satisfaction of the needs of all, create new needs and at the same time the means to satisfy them.""" Marx 1847: wage labor is "evil", because it converts labor to a commodity; capitalism will create the conditions that allow "emancipation of the proletariat and foundation of a new society": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/886732138576228432/unknown.png """Before we conclude, let us draw attention to the positive aspect of wage labour. α) If one says "positive aspect of wage labour" one says "positive aspect of capital", of large-scale industry, of free competition, of the world market, and I do not need to explain to you in detail how without these production relations neither the means of production—the material means for the emancipation of the proletariat and the foundation of a new society—would have been created, nor would the proletariat itself have taken to the unification and development through which it is really capable of revolutionising the old society and itself. *Equalisation* of wages. β) Let us take wages themselves in the essence of their evil, that my activity becomes a commodity, that I become utterly and absolutely for sale.""" Marx 1847: "evil circumstances of the proletariat" """How long is it since the government was prohibiting newspapers from maintaining such exaggerations as that we might have a proletariat in Prussia? Ever since the Trier'sche Zeitung among others—that innocent organ!— was threatened with closure because it maliciously wished to present the evil circumstances of the proletariat in England and France as existing also in Prussia? Be that as the government wishes.""" #####c ##### # socialism as extension of liberalism #####o # engels quotes Engels 1846: liberalism is "emancipation of the middle class" and "liberty of money"; democracy is "emancipation of the working classes" and "liberty of man": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/886739754132078602/unknown.png """I have thought it necessary to make these few remarks upon the subject of middle-class government in order to explain two facts. The first is, that in all countries, during the time from 1815 to 1830, the essentially democratic movement of the working classes was more or less made subservient to the liberal movement of the bourgeois. The working people, though more advanced than the middle classes, could not yet see the total difference between liberalism and democracy — emancipation of the middle classes and emancipation of the working classes; they could not see the difference between liberty of money and liberty of man, until money had been made politically free, until the middle class had been made the exclusively ruling class.""" #####c #####c ##### # # reformism: empirical evidence # #####o ##### # social spending trends #####o # social spending (good trend) among high-income countries, social spending made up ~1% of GDP in 1900 and ~25% in 2016: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/878654662868369478/social-spending-oecd-longrun.png social spending has trended upward roughly linearly since the 1920's: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/728302422170271835/unknown.png # state spending (vast majority is for left-wing relevant causes) government spending as a portion of GDP has increased from about 10% in 1880-1900 to about 40% in 2000-2010: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/632637970981060631/unknown.png military spending is roughly the same as a century ago: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/702984973212188793/unknown.png government spending on healthcare has enormously increased over the past 100 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/702980136797995138/unknown.png government spending on healthcare has increased over the past 20 years in most world regions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/692364864181633094/unknown.png #####c ##### # electoral trends and consequences #####o # democracy (good trend) about 1% of world population lived in democracies 200 years ago; today, about 50% do: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/632639590439845888/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/775040504412635156/U.png # calnitsky: parliamentary cretinism Calnitsky 2021: since the 1880s, the working class has used dual power over production (strikes etc) and democratic power (elections etc) to slowly claw more and more social income from the bourgeois; workers nowadays have more to lose than their chains, because of rising living standards, democratic rights, and asset ownership: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/978389557185749033/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1029617536993595442/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1085404150172483584/FpyrKg4XgAAu2Ti.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1085404169680195724/FpyrLpSWYAIx_Hy.png The Policy Road to Socialism # luxemburg: progressively socializing is purely imaginary Luxemburg 1899: as capitalism grows, it increasingly socializes production, but also increasingly empowers capitalists in government: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1138504922376179753/image.png """The theory of the gradual introduction of socialism proposes progressive reform of capitalist property and the capitalist State in the direction of socialism. But in consequence of the objective laws of existing society, one and the other develop in a precisely opposite direction. The process of production is increasingly socialised, and State intervention, the control of the State over the process of production, is extended. But at the same time, private property becomes more and more the form of open capitalist exploitation of the labour of others, and State control is penetrated with the exclusive interests of the ruling class. The State, that is to say the political organisation of capitalism, and the property relations, that is to say the juridical organisation of capitalism, become more capitalist and not more socialist, opposing to the theory of the progressive introduction of socialism two insurmountable difficulties. Fourier’s scheme of changing, by means of a system of phalansteries, the water of all the seas into tasty lemonade was surely a fantastic idea. But Bernstein, proposing to change the sea of capitalist bitterness into a sea of socialist sweetness, by progressively pouring into it bottles of social reformist lemonade, presents an idea that is merely more insipid but no less fantastic. The production relations of capitalist society approach more and more the production relations of socialist society. But on the other hand, its political and juridical relations established between capitalist society and socialist society a steadily rising wall. This wall is not overthrown, but is on the contrary strengthened and consolidated by the development of social reforms and the course of democracy. Only the hammer blow of revolution, that is to day, the conquest of political power by the proletariat can break down this wall.""" Luxemburg 1899: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1138506290688176208/image.png """So that if we don not consider momentarily the immediate amelioration of the workers’ condition – an objective common to our party program as well as to revisionism – the difference between the two outlooks is, in brief, the following. According to the present conception of the party, trade-union and parliamentary activity are important for the socialist movement because such activity prepares the proletariat, that is to say, creates the subjective factor of the socialist transformation, for the task of realising socialism. But according to Bernstein, trade-unions and parliamentary activity gradually reduce capitalist exploitation itself. They remove from capitalist society its capitalist character. They realise objectively the desired social change. Examining the matter closely, we see that the two conceptions are diametrically opposed. Viewing the situation from the current standpoint of our party, we say that as a result of its trade union and parliamentary struggles, the proletariat becomes convinced, of the impossibility of accomplishing a fundamental social change through such activity and arrives at the understanding that the conquest of power is unavoidable. Bernstein’s theory, however, begins by declaring that this conquest is impossible. It concludes by affirming that socialism can only be introduced as a result of the trade-union struggle and parliamentary activity. For as seen by Bernstein, trade union and parliamentary action has a socialist character because it exercises a progressively socialising influence on capitalist economy. We tried to show that this influence is purely imaginary. The relations between capitalist property and the capitalist State develop in entirely opposite directions, so that the daily practical activity of the present Social Democracy loses, in the last analysis, all connection with work for socialism.""" # retrenchment and asymmetric polarization Hacker and Pierson 2018: The Dog That Almost Barked: todo reread xxx # workers and democracy TODO Usmani 2018: powerful workers and weak landed elites yield substantially stronger democracies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071233150463787019/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071232866136109117/image.png Democracy and the Class Struggle """As recently as 150 years ago, ordinary individuals had little influence over the decisions that most affected their lives. Economic elites paid scant notice to those who tilled their fields or operated their machines. Political elites launched wars and enacted taxes without regard for those under their writ. Nonelites were disenfranchised. Eventually these regimes crumbled. The democratic transition swept Western Europe and, over the course of the 20th century, refashioned most of the world’s governments in its image. Democratization revolutionized authority, transforming subjects into citizens, autocrats into politicians, and barons into employers. Although authoritarian regimes linger, and political democracy has not eliminated inequalities of income and wealth, these changes amount to a remarkable transformation in the exercise of power. What explains democracy?""" Kadivar Usmani Bradlow 2020: massive, unarmed, pro-democracy "transitions from below" yield substantially stronger democracies and more egalitarian governments: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071233998199726170/image.png The Long March: Deep Democracy in Cross-National Perspective Usmani 2020: article summarizing the above two research pieces and responding to elite-focused models of democracy: In Defense of Democracy """One need not be Pangloss (or Steven Pinker) to note that the rise of democracy has transformed the world. At the heart of this transformation lies a paradox. Democracy introduces equality into societies riven by class and status hierarchy. To our ancestors, there would have been nothing stranger than learning that kings and lords would soon cede power to their serfs. Yet, steadily, our unequal world democratized. Our best indicators record extraordinary progress since the French Revolution.""""""These authors are right to assume that democratization is a contest between contending classes. Yet they have mostly misunderstood the character of this contest — specifically, the conditions under which the poor win democracy from the rich. The leverage of the poor comes not from growing wealth (as Ben Ansell and David Samuels argue) or from the threat of an unexpected rebellion (as Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson or Carles Boix claim). Rather, their leverage is the result of economic developments that give the poor the capacity to challenge the routines on which elites depend for their wealth.""""""The most consistent, powerful explanations for the rise of democracy are these two: the growth of the disruptive capacities of ordinary people and the death of the landlord class.""""""For instance, one of the major ways in which power has been redistributed in modern societies is via the growth of the welfare state. A long line of social science research suggests that the rise of this redistribution from rich to poor is in large part due to the labor movement and the social-democratic parties to which it has given rise. And in recent work studying the evolution of political power more specifically, Mohammad Ali Kadivar, Benjamin Bradlow, and I find that more mobilization leads to more participatory, egalitarian, and deliberative democracies.""""""In any society riven by inequalities of income and wealth, democratization is reduced to the formidable task of bending the powerful to the public interest. Liberal common sense has obscured this, to the detriment of democracy. Liberals are fond of attributing the present-day woes of democracy to the rise of new media or particularly able demagogues. But at its core, our real problem is an ancient one.""" # rasmussen todo Rasmussen 2019: compared to synthetic controls, countries with higher risk of communist revolution in 1919 saw significantly larger decreases in working hours over the next half decade: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/965385367740108851/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/965385534803439657/unknown.png Rasmussen and Pontussen 2017: Ghent system not beneficial after all: redo todo reread xxx: Knutsen and Rasmussen 2017: autocracies implemented old-age systems too: redo todo reread xxx: Rasmussen and Knutsen 2019: party institutionalization helped drive welfare growth: redo todo reread xxx: Rasmussen 2016: organized labor and the regulatory revolution: redo todo reread xxx: # european social democracy: rise and fall (bad trend) Benedetto et al 2020: social democracy had three waves -- a worker parliamentary-revolution party; a cross-class socialist party; and a third wave party; vote share increased from 1917 to 1950 or so; stagnated from 1950 to 1980 or so; and declined from 1980 to 2016 or so: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/962895499713720410/unknown.png # causes of decline of social democracy Benedetto 2020 et al: social democratic parties that moved to the "right" (social or economic) recieved more votes; however, this effect occurred only among socially conservative right shifts social democratic parties in Central and Eastern Europe, and not for economic OR social right shifts among social democratic parties in Western and Northern Europe: The Rise and Fall of Social Democracy, 1918–2017 """Second, regarding party positions, we find evidence that social democratic parties gained votes when they moved to the center (closer to the median voter) and lost votes when they moved to the left. We do not find an effect of the left–right position of the main center right competitor on social democratic support. We replicated this analysis breaking the left–right down into separate economic and social dimensions—see Appendix Table A6—and we found that social democratic parties won more votes when they were more free market on the economic dimension but more conservative on the social dimension. These results challenge some existing research, for example, that there is little evidence of the link between parties’ positions and their electoral performance (e.g., Adams 2012) and Kitschelt ’s (1990) contention that social democrats should gain support as they become leftlibertarian. However, further investigation reveals that this result on the social dimension is mainly driven by parties in Central and Eastern Europe (after 1989), where several parties, in Romania and Slovakia for example, became socially conservative from the early 2000s and gained votes at the expense of more liberalcosmopolitan parties. In contrast, there is little evidence in Western Europe of a connection between social democratic parties’ positions on a social dimension and their electoral performance.""" light red dotted line is the most useful one # causes of rise of new radical left parties Krause 2019: lagged dependent variable OLS w/ party fixed effects: radical left parties in Europe did better when they adopted more-centrist economic positions but adopted more-leftist social positions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983853507159400488/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983860330704826408/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983861176280686632/unknown.png """To sum up, radical left parties’ electoral fortunes depend on different strategies regarding the economic and the non-economic conflict dimension. While they benefit from centripetal movements on economic-related issues, they suffer electorally if they pursue the same strategy on non-economic issues. These different effects can be explained if the perspective of issue competition is taken into account. Since RLPs have built a stable party-issue linkage in the economic realm, they benefit from moderating their stances on these issues with the goal of attracting social democratic voters. Concerning non-economic issues, they compete with other leftist and libertarian parties for a credible party-issue linkage in the voters’ minds. For that reason, they are punished at the polls if they promote moderate stances that fail to present clearly distinguishable programmatic alternatives. The effect of these strategic considerations varies partly with the positioning of mainstream left parties. In contrast to the widely assumed effect of accommodative mainstream party behaviour (Meguid 2008), more moderate positions of social democratic parties decrease the marginal effect of RLPs’ positional strategies on the economic dimension. If the mainstream left takes a noncentrist stance, they seem to legitimise leftist ideas on the economy and thus foster the positive effect of RLPs’ positional shifts. Hence, far-left challengers profit electorally if mainstream parties politicise their core issues and signal their relevance to the electorate. Considering the non-economic dimension, this effect could not be observed. Here, RLPs are punished electorally if they moderate their policy stance. This is true independent of the positional strategy put forward by mainstream parties. RLPs are thus best advised to promote an outsider profile on this issue dimension.""" Krause 2019: radical left parties in Europe did better when the social-democratic party held more economically left positions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983860232809758720/unknown.png #####c ##### # other trends #####o # precarity (good trend) precarity and precariousness in developed countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640250582589767680/chart-2-developed-reserve-armyKILM9.png # unions of workers (bad trend) worker unions are falling in all countries by about the same amount: # effects of politics on unionization Schmitt and Mitukiewicz 2012: social-democratic countries (such as Sweden) saw substantially smaller declines unionization between 1980 and 2007 than social market economies (such as Germany) or liberal market economies (such as the United States): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1152291899164594256/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1152291951777939587/image.png Politics matter: changes in unionisation rates in rich countries, 1960–2010 Warner 2012: todo: # nationalizations list of nationalizations by country: # inequality (good trend) worldwide inequality has risen, inter-country inequality has risen, but intra-country inequality has fallen: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/702141856871350312/unknown.png # poverty: usa America has seen an enormous decrease of poverty over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640989067441340419/3c70826e8580a4d6b4f5ab166516997db33f03f5.png # poverty: worldwide: income for any definition of poverty, poverty has enormously declined over the past 40 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/691336979572588554/unknown.png ^ this occurred because median income rose, not because definitions changed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/691338310219464744/Global-Inc-Distribution-2003-and-2013-1-750x525.png ^ this is not just China: https://ourworldindata.org/the-global-decline-of-extreme-poverty-was-it-only-china> https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/691337296859103362/unknown.png ^ this is not just China: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/733349474725789826/unknown.png # poverty: worldwide: concrete the world has seen an enormous increase in water safety: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/691314977407238164/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/691315342697300008/unknown.png the world has seen an enormous increase in sanitation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/691338542982496316/unknown.png the world has seen an enormous increase in nourishment: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/691316296700395611/unknown.png the world has seen an enormous increase in literacy: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/691338919815675964/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/691339135058706543/unknown.png #####c ##### # revolutions in the rich world or democracies: rare #####o # france 1968: protests summary: in Mai 68, from 1968 May 2 to June 23, a wildcat (spontaneous) general strike was held by workers, who physically occupied plants, who followed the lead of students in taking over buildings in the month before. # france 1968: elections after the May-June 1968 events, https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1102139150397865984/image.png # france 1968: marcuse Marcuse 1968: France is not in a revolutionary situation and we should be careful to use the term: """I would not and I did not call the movement revolutionary, because I believe that neither in France nor certainly here in this country are we in a revolutionary or even a pre-revolutionary situation. I think we have to operate on this assumption, if we understand what is going on, and it is irresponsible to throw about the concept of revolution or revolutionary for the protest movement we have today.""" Marcuse 1968: the anti-police barricades, seizing of buildings, and protests first by students then by workers should make clear that students and intellectuals can help to lead radical socialist acitivity from the workers by leading by example: """In the first place, it should once and for all heal whoever still suffers from the inferiority complex of the intellectual. There isn’t the slightest doubt that, in this case, the students showed the workers what could be done, and that the workers followed the slogan and the example set by the students. The students were literally the avant-garde — not of a revolution, because it isn’t a revolution, but the avant-garde of an action which indeed turned spontaneously into a mass action. That is here in my view the decisive point.""" Marcuse 1968: France suggests a different model of revolution; spontaneity is key, rather than simply seizing the capitol, which has no great importance: """I think [there is] one thing we can say safely: that the traditional idea of the revolution, and the traditional strategy of the revolution are out. They are outdated, they are simply surpassed by the development of our society. I said [this] before, and I’d like to repeat it — because I think in this situation nothing is more seriously required than a sober mind: the idea that one day or one night, [a] mass organization or mass party or masses of whatever kind march on Washington and occupy the Pentagon and the White House and set up a government is, I think, utterly fantastic, and simply in no way corresponds to the reality of things. If there ever would be such masses and this would happen, within twenty-four hours, another White House would have been set up in Texas or in North Dakota, and the whole thing would quickly come to an end. We have to forget this idea of the revolution, and that is why I believe that what is taking place in France today is so significant and may well be decisive, and that is exactly why I stress the spontaneous character of this movement and the spontaneous way in which it spread.""" # france 1968: Greenland 2018: France 1968 was not a revolutionary situtation, but a pre-revolutionary situation: """But did May 1968 in France add up to revolutionary situation? The answer has to be no. It is more precise to call it a pre-revolutionary situation, one with ultimately unrealised potential, a great but incomplete eruption.""" Greenland 2018: France 1968 protests failed to build dual power -- the parties, unions, and workers themselves all chose not to construct an alternative power structure: """A refusal of the status quo more than a new beginning. An essential feature of any revolution is dual power, the appearance of an alternative power structure that actually starts to implement decisions and make changes. There is then a conflict with the pre-existing power structure and the result of that clash determines the success or failure of the revolution. No such alternative appeared in France. No sizeable political party or movement or combination encouraged the appearance of an alternative power structure and in the absence of that, the workers themselves did not rise to the occasion.""" """The workplace democracy was in fact very limited. In only about a fifth of workplaces did a general assembly involving all the workers make decisions and in only about a seventh were the strike committees actually elected by the strikers. There was not attempt by the strike committees to form federated and coordinating bodies. Nor were their attempts t restart workplaces and services under workers self-management to inspire others about what could be done.""" [todo see if other articles prove this] #####c ##### # violence and nonviolence: chenowith and stefan #####o # summary Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: relative to violent mass movements, nonviolent mass movements are more likely to succeed (55% to 25%, 2.2x), more likely to partially succeed (25% vs 12.5%, 2x), and less likely to fail (20% vs 60%, .33x): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/713784719782969354/unknown.png Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: movement success is positively predicted by nonviolence and number of participants, negatively predicted by population size and violent repression, and insignificantly predicted by polity score (autocracy-democracy) and target capabilities (military strength): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/717941261553762406/unknown.png # outcomes Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: nonviolent regime change movements were much likely to result in democracy after the movement ended: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/720032315551645736/unknown.png Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: even when nonviolence fails, it often precedes transitions to democracy: """Countries in which there were nonviolent campaigns were about 10 times likelier to transition to democracies within a five-year period compared to countries in which there were violent campaigns — whether the campaigns succeeded or failed.""" # nonviolent better for each outcome type Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: nonviolent mass resistance are more successful in every outcome category: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/713784732176875520/unknown.png # nonviolent better over time Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: violent resistance have become less successful over time; nonviolent resistance have become more successful: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/713783696406216745/unknown.png Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: mass resistance of all types has increased over time, but nonviolent mass resistance have grown more quickly than violent mass resistance: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/713783156683046912/unknown.png # nonviolent better against strong states Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: violent revolutions work better against weaker states and worse against stronger states: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/717940796870885376/unknown.png """We measure a country’s capabilities using an oft-used measure of power in international relations scholarship, the Correlates of War’s Composite Index of National Capabilities (CINC), which contains annual values for total population, urban population, iron and steel production, energy consumption, military personnel, and military expenditure. 3""" # sources Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: description of how they obtained their sources: """The list of nonviolent campaigns was initially gathered from an extensive review of the literature on nonviolent conflict and social movements. Then these data were corroborated with multiple sources, including encyclopedias, case studies, and a comprehensive bibliography on nonviolent civil resistance by April Carter, Howard Clark, and Michael Randle (2006). Finally, we consulted with experts in the field, who suggested any remaining conflicts of note. The resulting list includes major campaigns that are primarily or entirely nonviolent. Campaigns where a significant amount of violence occurred are not considered nonviolent. Violent campaign data are derived primarily from Kristian Gleditsch’s (2004) updates to the Correlates of War (COW) database on intrastate wars, Jason Lyall and Isaiah Wilson’s (2009) database of insurgencies, and Kalev Sepp’s (2005) list of major counterinsurgency operations. The COW data set requires all combatant groups to be armed and to have sustained a thousand battle deaths during the course of the conflict, suggesting that the conflict is necessarily violent.""" Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: resistance definition: """The term resistance implies that the campaigns of interest are noninstitutional and generally confrontational in nature. In other words, these groups are using tactics that are outside the conventional political process (voting, interest-group organizing, or lobbying). Although institutional methods of political action often accompany nonviolent struggles, writes sociologist Kurt Schock, nonviolent action occurs outside the bounds of institutional political channels (2003, 705). 8""" Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: violence definition: """Method of exerting power that, like nonviolent resistance, operates outside normal political channels. While conventional militaries use violence to advance political goals, in this book we are concerned with the use of unconventional violent strategies used by nonstate actors. 11 These strategies are exhibited in three main categories of unconventional warfare: revolutions, plots (or coups d’état), and insurgencies, which differ according to the level of premeditated planning, protractedness, and means of overthrowing the existing order. 12 The weapons system available to an armed insurgent is very different from that of its nonviolent analogue. Violent tactics include bombings, shootings, kidnappings, physical sabotage such as the destruction of infrastructure, and other types of physical harm of people and property. However, the cases we examine do not include military coups, since we are primarily interested in substate actors that are not part of the state. Both violent and nonviolent campaigns seek to take power by force, though the method of applying force differs across the different resistance types.""" Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: success definition: """Success and failure are also complex outcomes, about which much has been written (Baldwin 2000). For our study, to be considered a “success” a campaign had to meet two conditions: the full achievement of its stated goals (regime change, antioccupation, or secession) within a year of the peak of activities and a discernible effect on the outcome, such that the outcome was a direct result of the campaign’s activities (Pape 1997). The second qualification is important because in some cases the desired outcome occurred mainly because of other conditions. The Greek resistance against the Nazi occupation, for example, is not coded as a full success even though the Nazis ultimately withdrew from Greece. Although effective in many respects, the Greek resistance alone cannot be credited with the ultimate outcome of the end of Nazi influence over Greece since the Nazi withdrawal was the result of the Allied victory rather than solely Greek resistance.""" Chenoweth and Stephan 2011: campaign definition: """The term campaign is also somewhat contentious as a unit of analysis. Following Ackerman and Kruegler (1994, 10–11), we define a campaign as a series of observable, continual tactics in pursuit of a political objective. A campaign can last anywhere from days to years. Campaigns have discernible leadership and often have names, distinguishing them from random riots or spontaneous mass acts. 14 Usually campaigns have distinguishable beginning and end points, as well as discernible events throughout the campaign. In the case of resistance campaigns, beginning and end points are difficult to determine, as are the events throughout the campaign. In some cases, information on such events is readily available (e.g., Northern Ireland from 1969 to 1999); however, in most cases, it is not. Therefore, our characterization of the beginning and end dates of campaigns is based on consensus data and multiple sources. 15""" #####c ##### # violence and nonviolence: protests and riots #####o # nonviolent protest effects: positive political outcomes Madestam et al 2013: instrumental variable (rainfall): a 0.1pp increase of the population participating in a Tea Party protest causally increased the 2010 Republican House vote share by 1.881pp: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/751496068293853234/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976268589814382632/unknown.png causality argument assisted via IV using rainfall during protests Pinckney 2019 preprint: instrumental variable (rainfall): a 0.1pp increase of the population participating in a Women's March event causally increased the 2018 Democratic House vote share by 1.893pp: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/990053579723276318/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/990055766738231337/unknown.png Larreboure and Gonzalez 2021 preprint: every additional 1pp of the population to participate in a Women's March event in 2017 caused an additional 1.1pp of the population to participate in 2018: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/990057925689114655/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/990058897131843604/unknown.png # violent protest effects: negative political outcomes Wasow 2020: violent protests following MLK, Jr's, death significantly reduced Democratic vote share while nonviolent protest increased Democratic vote share; in a counterfactual world where no protests had occurred, Humphrey would have won the 1968 election in 75% of simulations (causality method: rainfall IV): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/748223707780219032/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/748223719041925130/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/749414739137921104/unknown.png # violent protest effects: negative economic outcomes riot severity from 1960-70 significantly reduced median black family income growth from 1960-1980: a 'severe' riot was associated with a 12-22% reduction in black income growth (causality argument assisted via IV using rainfall data): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/751508614639911003/unknown.png """Table 2B reports results for similar regressions, run for the 1960 to 1980 period. The results suggest that the riots’ effects were not transitory. Cities that experienced riot-associated relative declines in income during the 1960s did not catch up during the 1970s. The coefficients in columns 1 to 6 are roughly similar in magnitude to those from table 2A, but the estimated riot-effect profile is somewhat steeper in the quadratic specifications of columns 1 to 3 (reaching an impact of -0.22 in column 1 at a riot index value of 0.3). Likewise, column 4 estimates an average “severe riot city” effect of about 12 percent (compared to 9 percent in table 2A), and again, the 2SLS coefficients increase in magnitude, as do the associated standard errors.""""""77 percent of the deaths in the base sample occurred in the “severe” riot cities. On the basis of the index, the severe riot cities are: Los Angeles, Detroit, Washington, Newark, Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, New York, Mobile, and San Francisco.""""""Columns 3, 6,and 9 all include controls for the 1950-1960 trend in black family incomes for a reduced set of cities.""" riot severity from 1960-70 significantly reduced black property values from 1960-1980: moving from no-riot to medium-severity-riot or medium to high severity correlated with a 7-24% reduction in black property values (causality argument assisted via IV using rainfall data): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/751511156631535717/unknown.png """The 2SLS results are reported in columns 2, 3, 5, and 6 of table 4 for black housing values, along with comparable OLS specifications in columns 1 and 4. The first column is estimated by OLS and is very similar in specification and results to the first column of table 3A, suggesting that the replacement of the severity dummies (of table 3A) with the severity group variable (of table 4) is a reasonable simplification. In general, the 2SLS coefficients and their standard errors are larger in magnitude than in the OLS analogues. The 2SLS coefficients are uniformly negative, economically large, and remain near conventional levels of statistical significance. Given the relatively large standard errors, it is not surprising that Durbin-WuHausman tests cannot decisively reject the exogeneity of the severity variable, but the test statistics are large enough (p-values of 0.14 for 1960-70 and 0.27 for 1960-80) that we are reluctant to ignore the 2SLS suggestion that the true effects are larger than the OLS estimates.""" #####c ##### # demobilization: how social movements die ##### Davenport 2015: defines a "Social Movement Organization" (SMO) and explains how they die (are "demobilized); offers three external methods ("killing from the outside": "resource depletion", "problem depletion", "state repression") and five internal methods ("killing from the inside": "burnout", "factionalization / polarization", "lost commitment", "membership loss", "rigidity"): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1163827921522282567/image.png How Social Movements Die: Repression and Demobilization of the Republic of New Africa Scott 2016: summarizes Davenport's model: External and internal pressures on radical social movements: tracing the (de)mobilization of the League of Revolutionary Black Workers """Davenport identifies five internal challenges that movements might face: burnout, factionalization, lost commitment, membership loss, and rigidity. Burnout refers to dissidents becoming tired of the stresses of being involved in a movement causing disengagement. Factionalization occurs when differences in opinion arise either ideologically or tactically causing a schism in the group. If suffering from lost commitment a social movement organization (SMO) participant loses their emotional attachment to the movement in question. Membership loss refers to the mechanical functioning of an SMO and the amount of people it will take to accomplish the goals of the organization. Finally, if a movement places too much power into the hands of only a few inflexible leaders the organization may not be able to react to change. This is referred to as rigidity.26 Davenport also identifies three ways that SMOs are challenged from the outside: resource deprivation, problem depletion, and state repression. SMOs need resources to thrive (or survive), but these resources often come from external sources. If these sources are cut off or become suddenly unsympathetic to the cause, resource deprivation is likely to occur. Problem depletion occurs when constituents perceive an improvement in the situation that the SMO is challenging. In this situation a government (or other institution) may make reforms (whether real or perceived) that are perceived to be a positive change. Finally, state""" ##### # on socialism and fun #####o # summary SocDoneLeft 2023: it has never been possible to get workers to read theory en masse: Nobody Wants To Read Theory: Why Socialism Must Be Fun # various lefties in support of the utility/importance of fun Goldman 1931: often wrongly quoted as "If I can't dance, it's not my revolution!" or "A revolution without dancing is not a revolution worth having": """At the dances I was one of the most untiring and gayest. One evening a cousin of Sasha, a young boy, took me aside. With a grave face, as if he were about to announce the death of a dear comrade, he whispered to me that it did not behoove an agitator to dance. Certainly not with such reckless abandon, anyway. It was undignified for one who was on the way to become a force in the anarchist movement. My frivolity would only hurt the Cause. I grew furious at the impudent interference of the boy. I told him to mind his own business. I was tired of having the Cause constantly thrown into my face. I did not believe that a Cause which stood for a beautiful ideal, for anarchism, for release and freedom from convention and prejudice, should demand the denial of life and joy. I insisted that our Cause could not expect me to become a nun and that the movement would not be turned into a cloister. If it meant that, I did not want it. "I want freedom, the right to self-expression, everybody's right to beautiful, radiant things." Anarchism meant that to me, and I would live it in spite of the whole world — prisons, persecution, everything. Yes, even in spite of the condemnation of my own closest comrades I would live my beautiful ideal.""" Michael Moore in 2007: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1078191446722613298/FpoEn2FWIAE4i1W.png """In a Time magazine interview, Moore was asked: "How do you entertain people at the same time you're trying to get them to think about hard things?" Moore responded: "When I'm shooting a movie, I'm always in an invisible theater seat. I respect the fact that people have worked hard all week and want to go to the movies on the weekend and be entertained. But the struggle for me does not come between politics and enter- tainment, because I know that if I succeed in making an entertaining and funny or sad film, that the things I want to say politically will come through very strong. If there ever is a struggle, making a good movie will always supersede the need to be noble" (Kluger 2007).""" AOC in 2021: """And I think the most important thing that we can do in order to win is to be people and spaces that people want to be around. And that is our organizing priority. We have to make Medicare for All something that everyone wants to be a part of. We have to make Green New Deal something that everyone wants to be a part of. I think people sometimes are dismissive of this, in thinking that it’s less serious than study. But who’s gonna join your book club if it sucks? Who’s gonna join your reading group if they feel judged? So the important thing we need to do is to really create something … excuse my language … but that’s fucking fun.""" # on the soviet reader Dobrenko 1997 [trans Savage 1997]: in 1933, worker complaining that "good literature" was used to wrap fish while "mass literature" was immensely popular: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1082774941507801149/image.png The Making of the State Reader: Social and Aesthetic Contexts of the Reception of Soviet Literature """All polls of readers about criticism give one and the same picture: criticism goes unread and sparks no interest; its proportional importance in the readers' demands is insignificant. The generally recognized flowering of criticism in the 1920s, which was stimulated by the relative pluralism of the aesthetic programs and by the presence of contending literary camps, ignored or overlooked the reader. [....] In 1933 Mikhail Bekker did an experiment: he asked young readers about contemporary criticism. The answer he got in the institut was: "there's no time to read fiction, much less criticism of the authors." [....] One observer, who uses only the name "Tveriak," develops Bliumenfel'd and Shteinman's theses a bit further. He states that, in fact, "messmendovshchina12 maintained a huge circulation, whereas genuine good literature was used for wrapping herring and other parceled-out goods in the market stalls. What, do you think messmendovshchina really is a fulfillment of the social mandate of the times? . . . Erenburg's . . . The Love ofZhanna Nei and other such nonsense were also big press-run items. What, is this the fulfillment of the social mandate?13". [....] 12. "Mess-Mend" was a series of propagandistic "tales of adventure" ("Janni in Petrograd," "The Road to Baghdad," etc.) written by Marietta Shaginian in 1923-25. These tales enjoyed enormous popularity among workers. The term messmendovshchina came to be used in Soviet criticism to designate any cheap popular literature. 13. Tveriak, "PisateF—kritik—chitatel'," p. 6.""" -- todo: Stites Richard Russian Popular Culture: Entertainment and Society Since 1900. Cambridge, Eng., 1992. Dobrenko 1997 [trans Savage 1997]: mid-1925's metalworkers worker mostly read fiction in one large union library (5300 of 7300 books were belles-lettres): """But what did the worker in the mid-1920s read? Let us examine the data from a study of the factory-worker readers of the Kolomna suburb of Moscow. The Kolomna metalworks housed a library of about 10,000 books, which were read by 1,703 adult workers. The data of the Kolomna study in 1925 are interesting for their "purity," for there was a "natural selection" here: the factory library was not used by the city readers and students who had always constituted a significant part of library visitors. So it is worth noting first of all the predominant interest in belles lettres: out of 7,260 books checked out in one month, 5,317 were belles-lettres titles. Among these, the most widely read were by the authors Dem'ian Bednyi and A. Novikov-Priboi; translated literature was read mostly by the factory intelligentsia. Older workers and girls had a negative attitude toward new literature. Classic literature was read mostly by workers 50 years old and older (among whom author Aleksei Pisemskii enjoyed the greatest popularity), although young workers tended toward the classics as well (one of them demanded, "Give me some Lermontov"). For girls, the novels of A. ShellerMikhailov were in constant demand. There was steady interest in Jack London and Upton Sinclair, and in Emile Zola's social novels. Among the Russian classics, first place went to Tolstoy, followed by Turgenev and Dostoyevsky. Among contemporary writers, the greatest demand was for Gorky and for Aleksandr Serafimovich (pseudonym of A. Popov), and in "new literature" (in order of decreasing demand), for Aleksandr Neverov, Lidia Seifullina, lurii Libedinskii, Vsevolod Ivanov, Leonid Leonov, Dmitrii Furmanov, Fedor Gladkov, and Nikolai Liashko. The library's copies of books by Konstantin Fedin and Aleksandr Arosev were little read. Il'ia Erenburg was read by both male and female workers (the latter especially read The Love ofZhanna Nei [Liubov Zhanny Net]). Among the poets, Aleksei Nekrasov and Ivan Nikitin were read, as were the contemporary poets Sergei Esenin, Aleksandr Bezymenskii, Mayakovsky, Aleksandr Zharov, and Ivan Doronin. The study showed that the factory's youth read little, especially the Komsomol activists.7""" Dobrenko 1997 [trans Savage 1997]: in 1927, Glavpolitprosvet found that fiction represented 70-80% of worker's reading, which the Education Department blamed on insufficient provision of scholarly works: """According to the data of a far-reaching inquiry made by Glavpolitprosvet in 23 cities of Russia in 1927, fiction constituted from 70 to 80 percent of young workers' reading, while scholarly literature constituted from 20 percent to 30 percent.17 Of this total percentage for scholarly literature, "social sciences" constituted only 32 percent. This very low percentage was explained in a peculiar way: "The percentage of sociopolitical literature that our people are reading is extremely low, and this forces us to sound an alarm. It would be a malicious calumny of workers if people could think the working-class reader does not want to read these books. The fact is that we do not offer him this literature as we should, and this is the fundamental problem."18""" Dobrenko 1997 [trans Savage 1997]: worker complaining that "good literature" was used to wrap fish while "mass literature" was immensely popular: """In order to understand the dynamics of reader requests, one must address the problem of motivation for reading. A great amount of material was collected in Rostov-on-the-Don in 1926 and 1927, when questionnaires on the subject "Why do people read belles lettres?" were distributed during readers' conferences.16 Typical answers were: "Because it isn't boring," "Because it describes and reflects human life in a true-to-life way," "You can find a lot about the past in it," "Just to kill time."""" Ruggles 1961: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1082797027563409538/image.png """Several years ago, George Denicke, a perceptive student of Russian literature and politics, whose life has spanned the prerevolutionary and the Soviet periods of Russia, demonstrated that for the modern Soviet citizen prerevolutionary Russian literature "is clearly preferred and has a stronger ideological or emotional appeal than contemporary Soviet literature."4 The evidence he adduces explains why well over a third of all belletristic works published in the Soviet Union since the 1917 Revolution have been non-Communist Russian books written before that revolution. The same evidence can suggest why nearly a third of that total was represented by foreign authors and also why the most frequently translated American authors are nineteenth or early twentietlh century writers. The modern Russian reader is old-fashioned in his taste. He clings to the past, whether it be the Russian past or the past of the world outside. To a much lesser degree, he is interested in the world of the future, represented largely by science fiction.""""""Heavy emphasis, in the American books known to Russians, is placed on stories of frontier life (e.g., London, Cooper, Norris, and the children's writer James Willard Schultz, the latter published in 625,000 copies in the past ten years). Russian readers may find in these books a sympathetic interest since Russia, too, has had an untamed wvilderness to conquer. More probably, they enjoy them as purely escapist literature. Particular Russian interest is noticeable also in science fiction. though it is most evident in the wide publication of a nineteenth century French writer, Jules Verne. Apparently the only American writer of this genre published in the USSR is Ray Bradbury, althiough Mitchell Wilson's novels about scientists (Live with Lightning and My Brother, Mlly Enemy) might be considered distant cousins of science fiction. Fahrenheit 451, Bradbury's most frequently published title in the USSR, is so much concerned with a regimented society that it is almost a social tract, and therefore should perhaps be classified as political rather than science fiction. Nevertheless, American science fiction, like frontier literature, probably strikes a sympathetichord with Russians. Also, like frontier and Indian tales, it provides a release from reality.""" # working class library sources Neue Zeit archives: 1894-1895: J. S. and E. F. 1894: "Was Lesen die organisierten Arbeiter in Deutschland?" Neue Zeit no 13 pt 1 (1894-95): 154-55 Advocatus (Paul Vogt) 1895: "Was liest der deutsche Arbeiter?" Neue Zeit no 13 pt 2 (1894-95): 814-817 https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1080683971022696528/8t2xj24.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1081721413884461127/image.png Advocatus, "Ein weiterer Beitrag zur Frage: 'Was liest der deutsche Arbeiter?'" Neue Zeit 14, pt. 1 (1895-96): 631-35: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1081524129674575872/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1081524053774454825/image.png J. G., "Was lesen die Wiener Arbeiter?" Neue Zeit 17, pt. 2 (1898-99): 90; Konrad Haenisch, "Was lesen die Arbeiter?" Neue Zeit 18, pt. 2 (1899-1900): 693-94; https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1083070966462160986/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1083168270242295939/image.png 582+1182+987+6588+56+265=9660; 6588/9660=0.682; (1182+6588)/9660=0.804; (568)/9660=0.059 # working class library background sources Pfannekuche 1900: Was Liest Der Deutsche Arbeiter? Auf Grund Einer Enquete Beantwortet ^ Rosenberg 1982: """Ebenso ist erwiesen, daß in dem Maß, wie die Zahl der lesenden Arbeiter sich vergrößerte, auch die Zahl derer zu nahm, die an der bürgerlichen Literaturkommunikation partizipierten (die Produkte der bürgerlichen Massenliteratur konsumierten).8""""""It has also been proven that to the extent that the number of reading workers increased, so did the number of those who participated in bourgeois literary communication (who consumed the products of bourgeois mass literature).8""" ^ Calkins 1982: """12. J. S. and E. F., "Was Lesen die organisierten Arbeiter in Deutschland?" Die Neue Zeit (hereafter cited as NZ) 13, pt. 1 (1894-95): 154-55; Advocatus (Paul Vogt), "Was liest der deutsche Arbeiter?" NZ 13, pt. 2 (1894-95): 817; Advocatus, "Ein weiterer Beitrag zur Frage: 'Was liest der deutsche Arbeiter?' " NZ 14, pt. 1 (1895-96): 633; J. G., "Was lesen die Wiener Arbeiter?" NZ 17, pt. 2 (1898-99): 90; Konrad Haenisch, "Was lesen die Arbeiter?" NZ 18, pt. 2 (1899-1900): 693-94; A. P., review of Bebel's Die Frau und der Sozialismus, Der Bibliothekar 2(1910): 96; Josef Kliche,''Arbeiterlektüre,'' Sozialistische Monatshefte 17, pt. 1 (1911): 318; Langewiesche and Schönhoven, p. 195; Hans-Josef Steinberg, Sozialismus und deutsche Sozialdemokratie (Berlin, 1976), p. 138; Peter Krug, Gewerkschaften und Arbeiterbildung (Göttingen, 1978), p. 265. Concerning its significance, see also Peter Gilg, Die Erneurung des demokratischen Denkens im Wilhelminischen Deutschland (Wiesbaden, 1965), pp. 69-70.""" ^ Vitarelli 1988: """1 A. H. Th. Pfannkuche, Was liest der deutsche Arbeiter?, Tübingen und Leipzig 1900, p. 23. Die hier angesprochene Bibliothek war in Anbetracht des Bücherbestands, der 1898 schon 3296 Bände umfaßte, unter den von der Sozialdemokratie und den freien Gewerkschaften organisierten Bibliotheken wohl eine der größten. Die Nietzsche-Werke in 8 Bänden erscheinen - in der Liste der am häufigsten gelesenen Werke — .unter „Werke belehrenden Inhalts". Von allen Werken philosophischen, religiösen oder geschichtlichen Inhalts wurden nur die Bekenntnisse Rousseaus öfter verlangt als die Werke Nietzsches, nämlich 15mal im Jahre 1897 und 13mal im Jahre 1898. Höher dagegen war die Ausleihziffer von populärwissenschaftlichen Werken: Spamers Buch der Erfindungen und Brehms Tierleben wurden 1898 22- bzw. 24mal augeliehen. „Werke unterhaltenden Inhalts" hatten in der o. a. Liste im Vergleich zu den '„Werken belehrenden Inhalts" eine durchschnittlich lOmal höhere Nachfrage.""""""1 A. H. Th. Pfannkuche, What does the German worker read?, Tübingen and Leipzig 1900, p. 23. In view of the stock of books, which in 1898 already comprised 3296 volumes, the library referred to here was probably one of the largest among the libraries organized by the Social Democrats and the free trade unions. The Nietzsche works in 8 volumes appear - in the list of the most frequently read works - under "Works of instructive content". In 1897 and 13 times in 1898. On the other hand, the loan rate for popular scientific works was higher: Spamer's book of inventions and Brehm's animal life were loaned out 22 and 24 times respectively in 1898. list has an average 10 times higher demand than the 'works with instructive content'.""" #####c ##### # civil rights era polling, popularity, and tactics #####o # civil rights movement leader tactics Ryan 2013: Martin Luther King, Jr., ultimateley supported a tactical "moratorium on demonstrations" promoted by NAACP president Roy Wilkins in order to secure Democratic and pro-civil-rights victories in the 1964 election: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1060260048716181554/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1060260062221836449/image.png NYTimes 1964: coverage of the above: Ryan 2009: NAACP president Wilkins feared a decade of white backlash; "The promise of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 could well be diminished or nullified and a decade of increasingly violent and futile disorder ushered in if we do not play our hand coolly and intelligently": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1060262343138889748/image.png """In his telegram inviting the leaders to a meeting, Wilkins abandoned his usual cool tone. “There is no safety in the assumption that Goldwater cannot win the election,” he warned. “He can win it and he can be helped to win if the wrong moves are made. It is of highest importance we take council at earliest moment to ensure that without modifying any essential position we do nothing to produce votes for Goldwater. The promise of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 could well be diminished or nullified and a decade of increasingly violent and futile disorder ushered in if we do not play our hand coolly and intelligently.” 80 He struck a similarly dramatic tone in an article for the New York Times. “Nothing could be more important at the moment in the Negro civil rights struggle than refraining from any action that aids Goldwaterism. The response to the moratorium plea will be the measure of the maturity of the Negro community. No sacrifice of principle is involved, only an alteration - temporarily - in tactics. Those Negroes who mistake tactics for principles are miscast in the struggle for the race’s freedom.”81""" # racial acceptance trends: generally quick-ish tolerance increase from 40's-50's among white people: black people should be segregated on buses: 51% in 1942, 37% in 1956: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809185146971881472/unknown.png among white people: it would "make a difference to you" if a black person of comparable income and education moved into your neighborhood: 62% in 1942, 46% in 1956: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809185300097269801/unknown.png among white people: black people are just as intelligent as white people: 42% in 1942, 44% in 1944, 53% in 1946, 78% in 1956: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809185348319051826/unknown.png among white people: black people should go to the same schools: 30% in 1942, 49% in 1956: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809185636845879336/unknown.png # freedom rides: unfavorable May 4 1961: First "Freedom Rider" bus ride: May 1961: 22% approve of freedom riders, 61% disapprove; 28% think sit-ins, freedom buses, and other demonstrations will help integration in the South, 57% think hurt: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809178364224733244/imrs.png # march on washington: unfavorable August 1963: 23% were favorable towards the proposed March on Washington, 60% unfavorable: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809178539579801600/imrs.png March on Washington: # civil rights act: favorable October 1964: 58% approve, 31% disapprove of 1964 Civil Rights Act: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809172323726524416/FT_15.png November 1964: 68% prefer moderate enforcement of the 1964 civil rights act, 19% vigorous: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809172337941413888/FT_15.png # bloody sunday: favorable of civil rights groups 7 March 1965: Bloody Sunday march: May 1965: after Selma, 21% of whites supported "the state of Alabama" and 46% supported the "civil rights groups": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809172345523535872/FT_15.png October 1966: 85% of white people said demonstrations by black people had hurt the advancement of black rights, 15% said had helped: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/809178938814758962/imrs.png #####c ##### # unequal exchange, social democracy, labor aristocracy theory #####o # engels quotes: yes, he supported labor aristocracy theory Engels claims that the English proletariat is becoming bourgeois because England exploits the world: """It seems to me, by the way, that there is in fact a connection between Jones’ new move, seen in conjunction with previous more or less successful attempts at such an alliance, and **the fact that the English proletariat is actually becoming more and more bourgeois, so that the ultimate aim of this most bourgeois of all nations would appear to be the possession, alongside the bourgeoisie, of a bourgeois aristocracy and a bourgeois proletariat. In the case of a nation which exploits the entire world this is, of course, justified to some extent.""" # lenin quotes: yes, he supported labor aristocracy theory """The historical conditions for the activities of the British Social-Democrats, whose leader Quelch was, are of a very particular kind. In the most advanced land of capitalism and political liberty, the British bourgeoisie (who as far back as the seventeenth century settled accounts with the absolute monarchy in a rather democratic way) managed in the nineteenth century to split the British working-class movement. In the middle of the nineteenth century Britain enjoyed an almost complete monopoly in the world market. Thanks to this monopoly the profits acquired by British capital were extraordinarily high, so that it was possible for some crumbs of these profits to be thrown to the aristocracy of labour, the skilled factory workers. This aristocracy of labour, which at that time earned tolerably good wages, boxed itself up in narrow, self-interested craft unions, and isolated itself from the mass of the proletariat, while in politics it supported the liberal bourgeoisie. And to this very day perhaps nowhere in the world are there so many liberals among the advanced workers as in Britain.""" #####c ##### # unequal exchange: Is the global north exploiting the global south? How much? #####o # background: list of major theories of trade Mason 2014: Orthodox trade theory, Keynesian trade theory, New trade theory [Krugman types], Development, dependency and unequal exchange [Marxists, Gerschenkron, Ha-Joon Chang, Hickel types]: # definitions and summary, pro-UE Hickel 2017: unequal exchange (UE) can represent the difference between equal wages vs actual wages (wages in $ per hour) accounting for unequal productivity (output in $ per hour); super-profits from non-OECD to OECD countries (via unequal exchange, UE, and capital export imperialism, CEI) represents $1.46 trillion in 2012: """Amin suggested we might calculate the scale of unequal exchange by comparing the south’s existing earnings through trade to what they would be earning if we lived in a fairer world – one where the labour that goes into producing goods for trade was paid equal wages for equal productivity.""""""Economists Zak Cope and Timothy Kerswell recently updated Amin’s calculations for 2012, and found that the south’s transfers due to unequal exchange had risen to an eye-popping $1.46tn (£1.13tn) per year""" # quantification, pro-UE: Hickel et al 2022 Hickel et al 2022: unequal exchange represents 15-25% of Northern GDP: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1108178965371306064/image.png Imperialist appropriation in the world economy: Drain from the global South through unequal exchange, 1990–2015 ^ data source for above: Dorninger et al 2021: Global patterns of ecologically unequal exchange: Implications for sustainability in the 21st century ^ data source for above: Eora Global Supply Chain Database: [requires subscription] # quantification, pro-UE: Hickel et al 2021 Hickel 2021: unequal exchange represents about 5% of 2-5% of "core" (global North) GDP from the 1980s to 2010s: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1108177170620223498/image.png Plunder in the Post-Colonial Era: Quantifying Drain from the Global South Through Unequal Exchange, 1960–2018 # quantification, pro-UE: Cardechi Roberts 2019 Carchedi Roberts 2019: TODO: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868323980908584960/imp-1.png # quantification, pro-UE: Cope Kerswell 2016 Cope Kerswell 2016: 1.5 trillion of value was transferred from the non-OECD to the OECD, which has a total value added of 44 trillion; 1.5 is 3.4% of 44 trillion: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/826608371066732584/unknown.png Labour, Imperialism, and Globalisation """Meanwhile, OECD manufacturing workers were paid approximately 11 times more than their non-OECD counterparts in 2012 (see Figure 3). Thus, wage differentials exceeded productivity differentials by an approximate factor of 1.2 (11/9.2). Adjusted by this figure, which represents a coefficient for the real value of goods exports to the OECD from the non-OECD countries under conditions of equal exchange (equal international distribution of value added according to equivalent productivity) and where the overall price stays the same, nonOECD goods exports should have been worth approximately US$6.24 trillion. Since only US$5.2 trillion was paid for these goods, unrequited value worth over US$1 trillion was transferred from the non-OECD goods exports sector by the OECD in 2012. If OECD goods exports to the non-OECD were overvalued by the same proportion, then OECD merchandise exports to the non-OECD should only have been worth around (US$2.5 trillion/ 1.2) US$2 trillion. Since US$2.5 trillion was actually paid for these goods, unrequited value worth US$500 billion was transferred from the non-OECD goods export sector by the OECD in 2012. In total, around US$1.5 trillion of value was transferred from the non-OECD by means of unequal exchange in 2012.""" ^ Hickel 2017: """This is a conservative estimate, they add. It assumes that southern workers are far less productive than their northern counterparts; but the productivity gap may not be as big as we think. In fact, southern workers are probably since these days many of them work in foreign-owned factories (think of Apple’s iPad factories) with highly efficient technology and rigid , designed to extract as much as possible from every movement. If this is true, then the hidden transfer of value may be as large as (£3.8tn) each year.""" # critique of productivity, pro-UE, orthodox Marxist Cope Kerswell 2016: the alleged higher productivity of the First World relies on the assumption that average socially necessary labor time (SNALT) yields different value at under different technical regimes: Labour, Imperialism, and Globalisation """The much-vaunted superior ‘productivity’ of First World workers (value added per unit of labour, especially as measured in time as opposed to unit cost) is regularly used to justify the prevailing unequal global wage dispensation. For both liberals and Eurocentric Marxists, global wage differentials are the mechanical effect of productivity differentials resulting from differences in the level of countries’ productive forces (these conceived as ineluctably national in origin). By contrast, we argue that although the uneven and dependent development of the productive forces in Third-World countries conditions the value of labour-power (Amin 1977: 194), as Marx (1977/1867: 53) argued, an hour of average socially necessary labour always yields an equal amount of value independently of variations in physical productivity, hence the tendency for labour-saving technological change to depress the rate of profit. Although increased productivity results in the creation of more use values per unit of time, only the intensified consumption of labour power can generate added (exchange) value. Since wages are not the price for the result of labour but the price for labour power, higher wages are not the consequence of (short-term) productivity gains accruing to capital.""""""As Jedlicki (2007) argues, value-added figures already incorporate those wage and capital differentials which Western socialists justify in the name of superior First-World productivity. In doing so, ‘a demonstration is carried out by using as proof what constitutes, precisely, the object of demonstration’ (ibid.).""" #####c ##### # naxalites: modern revolution, failure #####o # strength and scope the Naxalites have been losing ground for decades: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/768110579399131166/unknown.png the Naxalite insurgency has been causing fewer and fewer deaths over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/768130860230246430/unknown.png ##### # shining path: modern revolution, failure [Sendero Luminosa, SLU or Communist Party of Peru, PCP or PCP-SL] ##### # is the truth and reconciliation commission reliable? Soifer and Vergara 2019: the Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission was born out of the 2000 democratization movement, set new standards for truth and reconciliation commissions, and provided the data and legitimacy for victims to pursue justice legally -- though it failed to completely fulfill that goal: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018683828207886346/unknown.png """During the democratic transition in 2000, the Peruvian human rights movement was particularly engaged in the advocacy for and the formation of the Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Following and studying the best practices of previous truth commissions in Chile and Argentina, but particularly in South Africa and Guatemala, the Peruvian CVR set new standards for this kind of project, which later infl uenced similar commissions in other parts of the world (Hayner 2011; Landman 2006). The CVR presented an alternative narrative of the confl ict that challenged the “victorious” version of the Fujimori regime and the military as defeating Sendero Luminoso and pacifying the country. It also presented strong evidence that portrayed Sendero Luminoso as the main perpetrator of deadly violence during the confl ict, in sharp contrast with other confl icts in Latin America. The CVR provided the human rights movements and the victims with important tools (legitimacy, data, forensic evidence, recommendations concerning reparations, etc.) to advance their claims for justice and reparations from the state and the judiciary system. However, as in the cases of other truth commissions (Hayner 2011; Bakiner 2016; Landman 2006), the role of the CVR is still a matter of controversy. Even if some public opinion polls have portrayed a relatively favorable image of the CVR, most people saw it as unable to directly contribute to a reconciliation process (Sulmont 2007; Barrantes 2007).""" # collapse after 1992 the Shining Path was decimated by the 1992 arrest of Presidente Guzman and has caused far fewer attacks since then: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/768133664823181322/unknown.png # killing estimates: high-govt, low-SP estimates Rendon 2019a: using assumptions favorable to the Shining Path (extrapolating from the 9 of 59 provinces with enough data to do direct log-linear victim extrapolation), between 1980 and 2000 the Shining Path likely killed 18700 people, the Peruvian gov't 28000, and other actors 1300: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018579818645835786/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018580192534478888/unknown.png Rendon 2019b: todo reread xxx: response to Manrique-Vallier and Ball 2019: # critiquing the above estimates Manrique-Vallier and Ball 2019: criticism 1: using updated and more-complete data, Rendon's estimates for SP victims are often *lower* than the number of *observed* deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018602482559090738/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018605980969341048/unknown.png """First, his estimates are inconsistent with observed data. By combining the data used by the TRC with data published by the Peruvian government between 2004 and 2006 (Ministerio de la Mujer y Desarrollo Social 2006a, 2006b), we see that Rendón’s estimates for SLU are, in most strata and in the aggregate, lower than the number of observed SLU victims—without considering victims who continue to be undocumented. This fact alone is enough to dismiss Rendón’s conclusions. The TRC’s estimates do not suffer from this problem.""" Manrique-Vallier and Ball 2019: criticism 2: selecting strata with enough data for direct extrapolation skews the sample toward strata that enumerated high proportions of their victims: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018603203153100851/unknown.png Manrique-Vallier and Ball 2019: criticism 3: the statistical estimation risk for Rendon's procedure is higher for most numbers of victims that are realistic (ie, above the number of observed victims in 2018): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018603635833311363/unknown.png # killing estimates: low-govt, high-SP estimates Manrique-Vallier Ball Sulmont 2019 (preprint): using Bayesian modelling to extrapolate from seven victim lists (including a new Census for Peace dataset), fatalities in the 1980-2000 violence perpetrated by the SP are 33700-34300, by the Peruvian gov't 22300-29400, by others 2100-2200: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018663937643909200/unknown.png """The six datasets were independently created by CVR itself (henceforth CVR), the Peruvian Ombudsman Office (DP), the Red Cross (CICR), and three human rights organizations (COMISEDH, CEDAP and CNDDHH). They were combined through a laborious computer-assisted record linkage procedure by an 18 person team. The resulting combined dataset collectively documents 21,951 unique fatal victims. The final global estimate was 69,280 fatal victims, attributed to the Shining Path guerrilla (SLU: 31,331), state agents (EST: 20,458) and other perpetrators (OTR: 15,967).""""""For this study we used a version of the original Ball et al. (2003) data together with a new dataset. The new dataset (henceforth MIMDES) is the result of a project by the Peruvian government, called “Censo por la Paz” (Census for Peace). This project was aimed at creating an enumeration of the victims of the conflict independently from the CVR. While “census” is clearly a misnomer, this was an ambitious project which produced a list with a total of 20,468 uniquely identified victims (see Table 1). The data collection ran in several waves between 2001 and 2006, and the results were published in a series of documents with lists of nominalized victims.""" # killing estimates: the Truth and Reconciliation Commission [Comisión de la Verdad y Reconciliación, CVR] Ball et al 2001, Truth and Reconciliation Commission 2001, Ball et al 2003: # truth and reconciliation commission: general info Truth and Reconciliation Commission 2001: Peru Digital Collection (Volumes 1-9 and Annex): see Anexo 2 ¿Cuántos Peruanos Murieron? Estimación Del Total De Víctimas Causadas Por El Conflicto Armado Interno: Volume 1 Chapter 3: Amnesty International 2004: review of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission: "Amnesty International includes a series of its own recommendations to the Peruvian authorities as well as supporting the extensive recommendations made by the Commission": Truth and Reconciliation Commission 2001: Volume 8: people who spoke Quecha as their mother tongue made up about 80% of victims of the Shining Path ("PCP-SL"), 80% Peruvian gov't ("Agentes del Estado"), 80% community defense groups (Comités de Autodefensa, CADS), 30% MRTA: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018691982119411733/unknown.png # shining path frequently executed of elected officials Soifer and Vergara 2019: the Shining Path killed more local elected officials or social organization leaders (1682, TRC) than the number of military/police victims (1671, TRC): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018682249887100998/unknown.png """The Peruvian Truth Commission has estimated that 23 percent of the victims killed by the Shining Path were local elected authorities and leaders of social organizations. In fact, according to the CVR database, the number of civil local authorities (majors, councilmen, judges, public officials, etc.) and social organization leaders killed by Sendero Luminoso is higher than the number of military or police casualties caused by that organization (1,682 vs. 1,671) (CVR 2003a). Those fatalities represent a loss of social and political capital that severely affected political parties (from both the left and right wings of the political spectrum) as well as social organizations from peasant and indigenous communities. This kind of violence also had a deterrence effect, preventing people from engaging in political or social mobilization and provoking lasting effects within the Peruvian party system and civil society organizations (see chapters 7, 8, and 9).""" # shining path violence legitimized the Fujimori regime's seizure of power in 1992 Soifer and Vergara 2019: Shining Path violence was so bad that opinion polls of Fujimori showed him *gaining* supported after his self-coup, despite implementing shock therapy policies: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018685628885520394/unknown.png """Whatever the logic of power that led to the autogolpe decision, the public was clearly prepared to support it, as Fujimori intuited from the way in which his attacks on Congress and the political establishment played in public opinion. Following the autogolpe, opinion polls showed Fujimori had most Peruvians behind his authoritarian measures. The support was neither capricious nor unreasonable; it was rooted in profound and widespread fear (Schulte-Bockholt 2013, 97). The fear was not limited to the business community and the armed forces. It extended to virtually the entire middle class as well as working- class and poor rural communities, which felt the brunt of the confl ict. The pervasive sense of fear paralyzed social movements and made it hard to articulate opposition to Fujimori (Burt 2009b, 315–349).""" # peruvian gov't conducted genocide via sterilization of indigenous people Carranza Ko 2022: the Peruvian gov't sterilized state thousands of indigenous people in order to control their bodies, in what clearly constitutes genocide: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018666533926469642/unknown.png # peruvian gov't enabled mass sexual violence against imprisoned people Soifer and Vergara 2019: the Peruvian gov't perpetrated 83% of the sexual violence recorded in the conflict: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018682557598011472/unknown.png """Insurgent and state violence also displayed wide variation in regard to particular forms of victimization: sexual violence, for example, was mostly conducted by state agents, who were recorded as responsible for 83 percent of the reported cases by the Peruvian Truth Commission, while 11 percent were attributed to Sendero Luminoso and the MRTA (E. Wood 2008; CVR 2003a, 6:201–202).15 Using a data set on state-perpetrated sexual violence in Guatemala and Peru compiled from the Truth Commission documents and nongovernmental human rights organizations, Leiby (2009) fi nds that in contrast to Guatemala, where sexual violence was most often perpetrated during sweeps and massacres, most victims of state sexual violence in Peru were violated while in detention (Leiby 2009, 454–455). At the same time, she states that while the Shining Path adherents committed sexual violence much less often than state personnel (still outstripping the MRTA), many of Sendero’s actions “were among the most brutal attacks” (Leiby 2009, 466). Chapter 6 in this volume provides a more detailed discussion of this particular instantiation of violence.""" # shining path: mass killings of indigenous Carranza Ko 2022: the Shining Path killed or disappeared over 5,000 indigenous people from the Amazon region of Peru: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018670761705222196/unknown.png Puño 2005: [unavailable] Soifer and Vergara 2019: insurgents captured from the Shining Path and the MRTA were 29 and 19 percent indigenous, respectively; among 183 prisoners convicted of terrorism, 35.5% had had some university education (roughly 3x higher than the population as a whole): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018686955573231626/unknown.png Soifer and Vergara 2019: between 600 and 10000 women were involuntarily sterilized by the Peruvian gov't: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018689767908589718/unknown.png # internal conflict displaced hundreds of thousands Soifer and Vergara 2019: the 1980-2000 internal violence displaced approximately 600k people (2.7% of Peru's population), the vast majority of which resettled from countrysides to cities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1018682789522051174/unknown.png """Forced displacement was probably one of the most important demographic consequences of the civil war in Peru. It has been estimated that 600,000 people—approximately 2.7 percent of the national population, according to the 1993 census—were forced to leave their residences during the confl ict in Peru (Diez Hurtado 2003). Other confl icts in the Latin American region have also forced huge numbers of displaced people: 6 million in Colombia up to 2014, from a total population of 48.9 million (12 percent of the population) (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre 2014); between 500,000 and 1.5 million in Guatemala from a total population of 10 million during the confl ict years there (Comisión de Esclarecimiento Histórico 1999, 3:211). In Peru, as in Colombia, forced displacement was mostly internal. In contrast, for Guatemala it has been estimated that 100,000 people became refugees in neighboring countries (W. Wood 1994, 610).""" #####c ##### # policy bias #####o # summary Can you change political views from above through imposing policy shifts? Causal evidence from the USA suggests not; mass political views must change from below. # imposition of gay marriage by the supreme court increased anti-gay prejudice in states which did not have legal gay marriage Ofosua et al 2018: linear mixed effects: state passage of gay marriage laws decreased anti-gay prejudice while federal imposition increased anti-gay prejudice: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/619647345578999818/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985376468727132200/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985376601921421372/unknown.png """Before legalization, antigay bias was decreasing both in states that ultimately passed same-sex marriage legislation (B = −0.0051, SE = 0.0004, P < 0.001) and in those that did not (B = −0.0077, SE = 0.0005, P < 0.001). For the states passing same-sex marriage at the state level, the demonstrated pattern was identical to that evident in models 1–3 (Fig. 3). Bias decreased at roughly double the rate over time following legalization (B = −0.0112, SE = 0.0006, P < 0.001). In sharp contrast, for the 15 states that did not pass same-sex marriage legalization locally, antigay bias increased over time following legalization (B = 0.0215, SE = 0.0065, P < 0.001).""" """In states that did not pass same-sex marriage legalization locally, we find a reactive or “backlash” effect (27) such that federal legalization was associated with increased antigay bias over time, despite the decreasing trend in bias in these states before federal legalization. The specific factors driving this effect cannot be addressed by the present data. One possibility is that, even though attitudes were improving, a tipping point of local support had not yet been reached for the majority to accept the federal ruling. Research at the individual level suggests that the attention given the federal decision may have sharpened some respondents’ sense of symbolic threat to their lifestyle and values (43), and this sense of threat could have exacerbated antigay biases among those individuals.""" # police affirmative action may have caused white flight Grumbach and Aneja 2021 preprint: differences-in-differences: after black police officers were hired through affirmative action (to achieve parity after segregation) in the 1970's and 1980's, the Democratic vote of those police jurisdictions did not decrease but white people left those counties, consistent with white flight: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985375308259668038/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # reformism: theory arguments and quotes # #####o ##### # summaries of Marx & Engels' positions on reform and revolution #####o # summary Marx and Engels never accepted reformism, but they shifted towards accepting it over time, particularly as they saw the successes of universal suffrage and the German Social Democratic Party. Engels landed somewhere near Kautsky's # has brief excellent summaries of kautsky and lenin's path to socialism [TODO] Harris 1988: Stephens 1979 / Stephens 1986: ^ extremely good quotes in chapter 3 # researcher opinions Hollander 2010: Marx and Engels increasingly supported the reformist route to socialism over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/865760815215018004/unknown.png """First, the 1895 Introduction does not itself signify a major change in Engels' attitude considering his recognition, not late in the day but over several decades, of political concessions by the British ruling class in particular, in effect its surrender to the proletariat regarding the suffrage. Secondly, since from the 1840s Marx noted and applauded the potential of the 'Social Democratic' route, at least under the appropriate conditions - including national character - Engels was scarcely deviating from the master and certainly not belatedly so. Indeed, some of Marx's affirmations are quite as strong as those of Engels in 1895.""" Hollander 2010: however, Marx and Engels held that parliamentary victory should be followed by pursuing Communist goals, preparing a dictatorship of the proletariat in law and force, and therefore preventing the removal of the party from government: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/865760822017523793/unknown.png """[T]here are certainly limits to Engels' revisionism. Thus it is misleading to speak of his having in 1895 'fully accepted the democratic viewpoint', since the parliamentary route was only the most effective means - and only under certain conditions - of assuring a 'dictatorship of the proletariat'. And most important, the immediate goal of a parliamentary majority was to establish, or at least set the foundations for, a classless communist system, on which matter there was no compromise; thus Engels would have found unacceptable a Parliamentary system generating a working-class majority unwilling to carry out a Communist program - Engels' support for Universal Suffrage as means to achieve proletarian power presupposes that elected workers tow the party line - or a working-class electorate choosing to replace the party at the polls. Such outcomes would render the 'dictatorship' a contradiction in terms. [...] Furthermore, insofar as our authors justified the use of force to protect the 'dictatorship' once in place - and however achieved - from counter-revolution, there remains some consolation for those traditionalists who view them as red in tooth and claw.""" # nimtz: Engels remained a revolutionary who saw voting as nothing more than a guauge of working class power Nimtz 2000: TODO: Marx and Engels: Their Contribution to the Democratic Breakthrough """Cognizant of Bismarck's censors, Engels could not be as forthright with his metaphor as he was eight years later when he made this very same point to Paul Lafargue, following electoral gains for the party in France, about the value of elections for the revolutionary process. Do you realize now what a splendid weapon you in France have had in your hands for forty years in universal suffrage; if only people knew how to use it! It's slower and more boring than the call to revolution, but it's ten times more sure, and what is even better, it indicates with the most perfect accuracy the day when a call to armed revolution has to be made; it's even ten to one that universal suffrage, intelligently used by the workers, will drive the rulers to overthrow legality, that is, to put us in the most favorable position to make the revolution. 40 Engels, therefore, leaves no doubt, contrary to all of the social democratic efforts to make him a reformist, that elections under capitalism were only a means, a "gauge," the best in his opinion, to determine when to resort to armed struggle.41 And this was a gauge to be employed not just in Bismarck's Germany.""" Nimtz 2000: TODO: Marx and Engels: Their Contribution to the Democratic Breakthrough """This is the framework in which Engels's, as well as Marx's, pronouncements on elections and the use of force for socialist transformation must be understood. Regarding the successes of the SAPD in the 1884 elections, Engels told Bebel: "I am less concerned just now with the number of seats that will eventually be won . . . the main thing is the proof that the movement is marching ahead . . . [and] the way our workers have run the affair, the tenacity, determination and above all, humour with which they have captured position after position and set at naught all the dodges, threats and bullying on the part of the government and bourgeoisie."42 In other words, the self­organization of the working class was the decisive gain. Or, to Sorge about the successes in the 1887 elections: "It is not at all a question of the number of seats, but solely of the statistical record of the irresistible growth of the party."43 And finally, the 1893 elections: "[T] he number of seats is a very secondary consideration. The principal one is the increase of votes . . . [especially in the] rural districts . . . without which we cannot expect to be victorious."44 Although the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands or SPD, the new name the party adopted after the ban was lifted in 1890, didn't do as well in the runoff elections in terms of seats, Engels said, "I am prouder of the defeats than of the successes . . . [because] What we won we owe—for the first time—entirely to our own strength . . . [and not to] the help of the liberals and democrats."45 All of these assessments only make sense when seen from the perspective of elections as a gauge for the best moment when to employ revolutionary force.""" Nimtz 2000: TODO: Marx and Engels: Their Contribution to the Democratic Breakthrough """Engels, like Marx, was unequivocal on the necessity of force. To Bebel in 1884, when the prospects for lifting the ban against the SAPD seemed likely in return for its renunciation of violence, he counselled steadfastness on principles. "No party, unless it was lying, has ever denied the right to armed resistance in certain circumstances. None has ever been able to renounce that ultimate right."46 To a co­thinker in Denmark in 1889, he wrote: "We are agreed on this: that the proletariat cannot conquer political power, the only door open to a new society, without violent revolution." 47 In his commentary on the party's new program in 1891, the so­called Erfurt Program, Engels argued that the reality of Germany "proves how totally mistaken is the belief that a . . . communist society, can be established in a cosy, peaceful way."48 To an Italian critic in 1892 Engels replied publicly: "I have never said the socialist party [the SPD] will become the majority and then proceed to take power. On the contrary, I have expressly said," echoing his aforementioned comments to LaFargue, "that the odds are ten to one that our rulers, well before that point arrives, will use violence against us, and this would shift us from the terrain of majority to the terrain of revolution."49""" #####c ##### # Marx quotes #####o # marx quote: reform is possible in certain institutions Marx 1872: in certain countries with certain institutions, workers can attain the rule of labor by peaceful means: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864295600736567317/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864295691391991809/unknown.png """[T]he institutions, mores, and traditions of various countries must be taken into consideration, and **we do not deny that there are countries -- such as America, England, and if I were more familiar with your institutions, I would perhaps also add Holland -- where the workers can attain their goal by peaceful means.** This being the case, we must also recognize the fact that in most countries on the Continent the lever of our revolution must be force; it is force to which we must some day appeal in order to erect the rule of labor. [....] Do they then forget that America will be the workers' continent par excellence, that half a million men -- workers -- emigrate there yearly, and that on such soil, where the worker dominates, the International is bound to strike strong roots?""" # marx story: revolutionary phrase-mongering Marx 1880: rejecting minimum demands achievable within capitalism in favor of revolution is nothing but "revolutionary phrase-mongering": """Whereas Marx saw this as a practical means of agitation around demands that were achievable within the framework of capitalism, Guesde took a very different view: “Discounting the possibility of obtaining these reforms from the bourgeoisie, Guesde regarded them not as a practical programme of struggle, but simply ... as bait with which to lure the workers from Radicalism.” The rejection of these reforms would, Guesde believed, “free the proletariat of its last reformist illusions and convince it of the impossibility of avoiding a workers ’89.” [4] Accusing Guesde and Lafargue of “revolutionary phrase-mongering” and of denying the value of reformist struggles, Marx made his famous remark that, if their politics represented Marxism, “ce qu'il y a de certain c'est que moi, je ne suis pas Marxiste” (“what is certain is that I myself am not a Marxist”).[5]""" check citation 9 and 41 Marx 1880: Marx called his son in law a "revolutionary phrase-monger" for not valuing reforms (as a means to organize revolution) enough: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864310654332567602/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864311349931540550/unknown.png """The minimum electoral program [of le Proletaire] was designed solely as a "means of organization and struggle." It consisted of a series of minimum demands that Guesde drew from labor and Radical movements[.] [....] Discounting the possibility of obtaining these reforms from the bourgeoise, Guesde regarded them not as a practical program of struggle, but simply as a means of agitation, as a bait with which to lure the workers away from Radicalism. Since in his view these reforms were -- with the exception of a minimum wage -- compatible with the capitalist system, their rejection woudl free the proletariat "of its last reformist illusions and convince it of the impossibility of avoiding a workers' [17]89 [date of anti-monarchist French revolution]."10""" """"Though Guesde and Lafargue represented the rudiments of Marxism in France, they were severely chastised by Marx for their practical errors, for indulging in "revolutionary phraseology," denying the revolutionary value of reformist struggles and ignoring the progressive role of Radicalism. If this was Marxism, Marx told his "Bakunist" son-in-law [Lafargue], he was not a Marxist.""" ^ context for the above: Marx was rejecting the "Marxism" of his son-in-law Lafargue and Guesde: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/887019443803267173/unknown.png """After the programme was agreed, however, a clash arose between Marx and his French supporters arose over the purpose of the minimum section. Whereas Marx saw this as a practical means of agitation around demands that were achievable within the framework of capitalism, Guesde took a very different view: “Discounting the possibility of obtaining these reforms from the bourgeoisie, Guesde regarded them not as a practical programme of struggle, but simply ... as bait with which to lure the workers from Radicalism.” The rejection of these reforms would, Guesde believed, “free the proletariat of its last reformist illusions and convince it of the impossibility of avoiding a workers ’89.” [4] Accusing Guesde and Lafargue of “revolutionary phrase-mongering” and of denying the value of reformist struggles, Marx made his famous remark that, if their politics represented Marxism, “ce qu'il y a de certain c'est que moi, je ne suis pas Marxiste” (“what is certain is that I myself am not a Marxist”). [5]""" ^ context for the above: Marx was rejecting the "Marxism" of his son-in-law Lafargue and Guesde: """Lafargue foresaw socialism arising from the growth of heavy industry and a disciplined and concentrated industrial proletariat.5 Vastly exaggerating the degree of concentration in French industry, he predicted an imminent revolution that would be ignited by economic or political crisis. If socialism was to arise from the industrial wroking class, it would be necessary to abandon skilled workers with their federalist traditions. Guesdists began to treat them as a petty bourgeois element, infected with the spirit of individualism and Proudhonism, whose elite status and federalist ideology were condemned by industrial development.6""" #####c ##### # Engels quotes: probably supported "revolutionary social democracy", without explicitly doing so #####o # engels quotes: reform is impossible even to acheive universal suffrage Engels 1842: "the middle class will never renounce its occupation of the House of Commons by agreeing to universal suffrage": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/865761998414675988/unknown.png """And if a revolution in England is impossible, as they at least assert, they have indeed little to fear for their rule. If Chartism has the patience to wait until it has won a majority in the House of Commons, it will have to go on for many a year to come holding meetings and demanding the six points of the People’s Charter [180]; the middle class will never renounce its occupation of the House of Commons by agreeing to universal suffrage, since it would immediately be outvoted by the huge number of the unpropertied as the inevitable consequence of giving way on this point. Therefore Chartism has not yet been able to gain any hold among educated people in England and will remain unable to do so for some time yet.""" Engels 1842: "in England’s present condition, “legal progress” and universal suffrage would inevitably result in a revolution": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/865762482701205514/unknown.png """Moreover, irrespective of political interests, the middle class can only be Whig or Tory, never Chartist. Its principle is the preservation of the status quo; in England’s present condition, “legal progress” and universal suffrage would inevitably result in a revolution. It is therefore quite natural that the practical Englishman, for whom politics is a matter of arithmetic or even a commercial affair, pays no attention at all to the power of Chartism, which is quietly growing to formidable proportions, since it cannot be expressed in numbers, except perhaps in such as, in relation to the government and Parliament, would be noughts after the decimal point. But there are things which are beyond numerical calculation, and it is here that the super-cleverness of English Whiggery and Toryism will suffer a debacle, when the time comes.""" # engels quotes: communist power may be achieved either peacefully or violently Engels 1847: peaceful achievement of socialism is desirable, but unlikely: """Question 16: **Will the peaceful abolition of private property be possible? It would be desirable if this could happen, and the communists would certainly be the last to oppose it.** Answer: Communists know only too well that all conspiracies are not only useless, but even harmful. They know all too well that revolutions are not made intentionally and arbitrarily, but that, everywhere and always, they have been the necessary consequence of conditions which were wholly independent of the will and direction of individual parties and entire classes. But they also see that the development of the proletariat in nearly all civilized countries has been violently suppressed, and that in this way the opponents of communism have been working toward a revolution with all their strength. If the oppressed proletariat is finally driven to revolution, then we communists will defend the interests of the proletarians with deeds as we now defend them with words.""" Engels 1847: description of "democratic socialism" as modern "social democrats" (not abolishing capitalism, merely ensuring that capitalism is humane): """Question 24: How do communists differ from socialists? Answer: The so-called socialists are divided into three categories. [....] Finally, the third category consists of democratic socialists who favor some of the same measures the communists advocate, as described in Question 18, not as part of the transition to communism, however, but as measures which they believe will be sufficient to abolish the misery and evils of present-day society. These democratic socialists are either proletarians who are not yet sufficiently clear about the conditions of the liberation of their class, or they are representatives of the petty bourgeoisie, a class which, prior to the achievement of democracy and the socialist measures to which it gives rise, has many interests in common with the proletariat. It follows that, in moments of action, the communists will have to come to an understanding with these democratic socialists, and in general to follow as far as possible a common policy with them – provided that these socialists do not enter into the service of the ruling bourgeoisie and attack the communists. It is clear that this form of co-operation in action does not exclude the discussion of differences.""" # revolution is necessary Engels 1889: """That the proletariat cannot seize political power, which alone will open the doors to the new society, without violent revolution is something upon which we are both agreed. If the proletariat is to be strong enough to win on the crucial day, it is essential – and Marx and I have been advocating this ever since 1847 – for it to constitute a party in its own right, distinct from and opposed to all the rest, one that is conscious of itself as a class party.""" # was no lover of peace Engels 1895: it's "disgraceful" that extracts of my "Introduction to the French Revolution" made me appear as "a peaceful worshipper of legality at any price", a view which should be "wiped out": """To my astonishment I see in Votwärts! today an extract from my “Introduction,” printed without my prior knowledge and trimmed in such a fashion that I appear as a peaceful worshipper of legality at any price. So much the better that the whole thing is to appear now in the Neue Zeit so that this disgraceful impression will be wiped out. I shall give Liebknecht a good piece of my mind on that score and also, no matter who they are, to those who gave him the opportunity to misrepresent my opinion without even telling me a word about it...""" # dictatorship of the proletariat good Engels 1891: maintained support for revolutionary dictatorship of the proletariat, against social-democratic opposition: """Of late, the Social-Democratic philistine has once more been filled with wholesome terror at the words: Dictatorship of the Proletariat. Well and good, gentlemen, do you want to know what this dictatorship looks like? Look at the Paris Commune. That was the Dictatorship of the Proletariat.""" # voting is just a guage of working class strength, which will drive capitalists to overthrow democracy Engels 1892 [MECW]: Marx & Engels Collected Works Volume 50: Letters 1892-95, Engels to Paul LaFargue, 12 November 1892 """Do you realise now what a splendid weapon you in France have had in your hands for forty years in universal suffrage; if only people had known how to use it! It’s slower and more boring than the call to revolution, but it’s ten times more sure, and what is even better, it indicates with the most perfect accuracy the day when a call to armed revolution has to be made; it’s even ten to one that universal suffrage, intelligently used by the workers, will drive the rulers to overthrow legality, that is, to put us in the most favourable position to make the revolution.""" # socialist party is unstoppable power Engels 1892: today, bourgeois electeds "have to regard" the socialist party "as the avant-garde of the power to come": """In 1867 the bourgeois deputies were able to regard their socialist colleagues as strange creatures that had arrived from another planet; today, whether they like it or not, they have to regard them as the avant-garde of the power to come. The socialist party which overthrew Bismarck, the party which after eleven years of struggle has broken the Anti-Socialist Law; the socialist party, which like a rising tide overflows all the dikes, invading towns and countryside, even in the most reactionary Vendees – this party today has reached the point where it is possible to determine the date when it will come to power almost by mathematical calculation.""" Engels 1892: while socialists have electoral-legal advantages, they shouldn't fire first, but await bourgeois counter-revolutionary violence, "you shoot first, messiers les bourgeois", for now, "it is not we who are being destroyed by legality", and counter-revolutionary violence can only slow the victory of socialism: """How many times have the bourgeois called on us to renounce the use of revolutionary means for ever, to remain within the law, now that the exceptional law has been dropped and one law has been re-established for all, including the socialists? Unfortunately we are not in a position to oblige messieurs les bourgeois. Be that as it may, for the time being it is not we who are being destroyed by legality. It is working so well for us that we would be mad to spurn it as long as the situation lasts. It remains to be seen whether it will be the bourgeois and their government who will be the first to turn their back on the law in order to crush us by violence. That is what we shall be waiting for. You shoot first, messieurs les bourgeois. No doubt they will be the first ones to fire. One fine day the German bourgeois and their government, tired of standing with their arms folded, witnessing the ever increasing advances of socialism, will resort to illegality and violence. To what avail? With force it is possible to crush a small sect, at least in a restricted space but there is no force in the world which can wipe out a party of two million men spread out over the entire surface-area of a large empire. Counter-revolutionary violence will be able to slow down the victory of socialism by a few years; but only in order to make it all the more complete when it comes.""" Engels 1895: """And if then, as shown in the third article of Marx, in the spring of 1850 developments had concentrated the real ruling power in the bourgeois republic that had emanated from the “social” revolution of 1848 in the hands of the big bourgeoisie, which, on top of all, entertained monarchistic desires, while all other social classes, peasants as well as petty bourgeoisie, had been grouped about the proletariat in such manner that in case and after a common victory not the bourgeoisie but the proletariat made wary by experience would become the decisive factor-in such case were not the chances favorable for a reversion of the revolution of the minority into the revolution of the majority? History has proved us wrong and all others who thought similarly. It has made clear that the status of economic development on the Continent was then by no means ripe for the abolition of capitalist production; it has proved this by the economic revolution which, since 1848, has affected the entire Continent and has introduced large industry in France, Austria, Hungary. Poland, and, more recently, in Russia, and has made of Germany an industrial country of the first rank-all this upon a capitalist basis which, reckoning from 1848, implies great expansive capacity.""" Engels 1895: """We had then [in 1848] the masses, divided and differentiated according to locality and nationality, undeveloped, held together only by a sense of common suffering, aimlessly driven hither and thither between enthusiasm and despair; we have today the one great international army of Socialists, advancing irresistibly, daily growing in numbers, organization, discipline, discernment and certainty of victory. And if this powerful army of the proletariat has not yet reached the goal, if, far from winning the victory by one fell blow, it must gradually proceed by hard, tenacious struggle from position to position, it proved once for all how impossible it was in 1848 to bring about the social transformation by a sheer coup de main.""" Engels 1895: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866365523147227176/unknown.png """[T]he astonishing growth of the [German Social Democratic ]party lies in incontestable figures open before all the world. 1871: 102,000; 1874: 352,000; 1877: 493,000 Social Democratic votes. Then came the high governmental acknowledgment of this progress in the shape of the anti-Socialist law. For the moment, the party was dispersed, the vote sank to 312,000 in 1881. But that was soon overcome, and now, under pressure of the exceptional law, without a press, without a legal organization, without the right of assembly, began the most rapid growth in spite of all. 1884: 550,000; 1887: 763,000; 1890: 1,427,000 votes. Then the hand of the State was lamed. The anti-Socialist law vanished, the Socialist vote rose to 1,787,000, more than a quarter of the entire vote cast. The Government and the ruling classes had exhausted all their means-uselessly, purposelessly, unsuccessfully. The most palpable proofs of their own impotence which the authorities, from night watchman to chancellor, had been made to swallow-and from the despised workers, at that-these proofs could be counted by the million. The State had got to the end of its resources, the workers were but at the beginning of theirs. The German workers had, moreover, rendered to their cause a second great service, besides the first of their mere existence as the strongest, the best disciplined and the most rapidly growing Socialist party; they had furnished their comrades in all countries with a new and one of the sharpest weapons, by showing them how to utilize the general franchise.""" Engels 1895: """Even if the general franchise had offered no other advantage than to permit us to count our numbers once every three years;-that through the regularly demonstrated, unexpectedly rapid growth of the vote, it increased the certainty of victory on the part of the workers in the same measure that it increased the panic of the foe, and thereby became our best means of propaganda; that it informed us, accurately, of our own strength as well as of that of all opposing parties, and gave us thereby a gauge for proportioning our action such as cannot be duplicated, restrained us from untimely hesitation as well as from untimely daring-if that were the sole gain derived from the general franchise, it would be more than enough.""" Engels 1895: """But it has done much more. During the election agitation, it furnished us a means, such as there is no other, of getting in touch with the masses of the people that are still far removed from us, of forcing all parties to defend their views and actions against our attacks before all the people; and, in addition, it made accessible to our representatives in the Reichstag a tribune from which they could speak to our opponents in Parliament, as well as to the masses without, with much greater authority and freedom than could be done in the press and at meetings. Of what use was the anti-Socialist law to the Government and to the bourgeoisie if the election agitation and the Socialist speeches in the Reichstag constantly broke through it?""" Engels 1895: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866366241962852393/unknown.png """With this successful utilization of the general franchise, an entirely new method of the proletarian struggle had come into being and had quickly been built up. It was found that the State institutions, wherein the rule of the bourgeoisie is organized, did furnish further opportunities by means of which the working class can oppose these same institutions. We participated in the elections to the Diets in the Federal States, Municipal Councillors, Industrial Courts; in short, we contested with the bourgeoisie every post in the filling of which a sufficiently large part of the proletariat had a say. And so it came about that bourgeoisie and Government feared far more the legal than the illegal action of the workers’ party, more the successes of the elections than those of rebellion.""" Engels 1895: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866496610635481108/unknown.png """Already in 1849 the chances of success were rather poor. Everywhere had the bourgeoisie gone over to the side of the governments, “culture and possessions” greeted and feted the military marching out against the insurrections. The barricade had lost its charm; the soldier saw behind it no longer “the people,” but rebels, agitators, plunderers, dividers, the dregs of society; the officer had in the course of time become familiar with the tactical forms of the street battle; no longer did he march in direct line and without cover upon the improvised breastworks, but outflanked them through gardens, courts and houses; and that succeeded now with some skill in nine cases out of ten.""" Engels 1895: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866497676023824425/unknown.png """On the side of the insurgents, however, all the conditions have become worse. An uprising wherewith all layers of the population sympathize will hardly come again; in the class struggle the middle layers will hardly ever group themselves around the proletariat so fully that the party of reaction, gathering around the bourgeoisie, will be almost eclipsed by comparison. The “people” will for that reason always appear divided, and thus a powerful lever, so effective in 1848, will be missing.""" Engels 1895: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866496858028245032/unknown.png """Since then, much more has been changed, all in favor of the military. If the cities have become larger, so have the armies. Paris and Berlin, since 1848, have quadrupled, but their garrisons have grown more than that. These garrisons, by means of the railroads, may be doubled inside of twenty-four hours, and in forty-eight hours may swell to gigantic armies. The armament of these enormously augmented troops has become incomparably more effective. In 1848 the smoothbore, muzzle-loaded percussion rifle, today the small-caliber, magazine breech loader, shooting four times as far, ten times as accurately and ten times as quickly as the former. At that time the solid projectiles and case shot of the artillery with relatively weak effect, today the percussion shell, one of which suffices to shatter the best barricade. Then the pickaxe of the pioneer to break through the fire walls, today the dynamite cartridge.""" Engels 1895: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866497926347620352/unknown.png """Even if on the side of the insurrection there be more trained soldiers, it will become more difficult to arm them. The hunting and sporting rifles of the warehouses-even if the police has not rendered them useless by the removal of a part of the mechanism-are no match for the magazine rifle of the soldier even at close quarters. Up to 1848 one could make his own ammunition out of powder and lead, today the cartridge for each rifle model varies, being similar only in that all of them are the product of large industry and not to be extemporized, which renders most rifles useless unless one has the special ammunition made for them. And, finally, the newly-built quarters of the large cities, erected since 1848, have been laid out in long, straight and wide streets as though made to order for the effective use of the new cannon and rifles. The revolutionary, who would himself select the new working class districts in the north and east of Berlin for a barricade battle, would have to be a lunatic.""" Engels 1895: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866499091054985256/unknown.png """Does the reader now understand why the ruling classes, by hook or by crook, would get us where the rifle pops and the sabre slashes? Why, today, do they charge us with cowardice because we will not, without further ado, get down into the street where we are sure of our defeat in advance? Why are we so persistently importuned to play the role of cannon fodder?""" Engels 1895: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866499016606744656/unknown.png """We are not quite so silly. They might as well ask of their enemies in the next war to face them in the line formation of Frederick II, or in the columns of whole divisions a la Wagram and Waterloo, and with the old flint-and-pan gun in hand, at that. The time is past for revolutions carried through by small minorities at the head of unconscious masses. When it gets to be a matter of the complete transformation of the social organization, the masses themselves must participate, must understand what is at stake and why they are to act. That much the history of the last fifty years has taught us. But so that the masses may understand what is to be done, long and persistent work is required, and it is this work that we are now performing with results that drive our enemies to despair.""" Engels 1895: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866503237476417567/unknown.png """In France, where the soil has been raked up for more than a hundred years by revolution after revolution, where not a single party exists that has not done its part in conspiracies, insurrections and in all other revolutionary actions; in France, where because thereof the army is by no means certain for the government, and where, generally speaking, the conditions for an insurrectionary coup de main are much more favorable than in Germany-even in France the Socialists realize more and more that no durable success is possible unless they win over in advance the great mass of the people, which, in this case, means the peasants. The slow work of propaganda and parliamentary activity are here also recognized as the next task of the party. Success did not fail to come.""" Engels 1895: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866503559653359636/unknown.png """Of course, our comrades abroad have not abandoned the right to revolution. The right to revolution is, in the last analysis, the only real “historic right” upon which all modern States rest without exception, including even Mecklenburg where the revolution of the nobility was terminated in 1755 through the “inheritance agreement,” the glorious confirmation of feudalism valid this very day. The right to revolution is so thoroughly recognized in the inner consciousness of man, that even General von Boguslawski deduces from this popular right alone the coup d’état whereby to vindicate his Kaiser.""" Engels 1895: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866512529358716958/unknown.png """The irony of history turns everything upside down. We, the “revolutionists,” the “upsetters,” we thrive much better with legal than with illegal means in forcing an overthrow. The parties of order, as they call themselves, perish because of the legal conditions set up by themselves. With Odilon Barrot they cry out in despair: la legalité nous tue-legality is our death-while we with this same legality acquire swelling muscles and red cheeks and look the picture of health. And if we are not insane enough to favor them by letting them drive us into street battles, nothing will in the end be left to them but themselves to break through the legality that is so fatal to them.""" #####c ##### # karl marx: theory of catastrophism #####o # alternate names Collapse of capitalism # summary of Marx's two theories of crises # critical summary falling rate of profit + overaccumulation --> increasingly slow growth and increasingly strong crises # view of modern scholarship Eltis 2000: mainstream economics has rejected Marx's views on the rate of profit, growth of employment, and slow rise of wages are almost wholly ignored today: The Classical Theory of Economic Growth """Marx's theory of the tendency of the rate of profit and the growth of employment to decline can make little sense to economists today. His proposition that wages will rise less than productivity, if at all, is still more irrelevant to an understanding of how modern economies develop. Mainstream economics therefore almost wholly ignores Marx's explanations and predictions of the broad historical tendencies.""" Eltis 2000: mainstream economics is correct to reject Marx's twin catastrophes: his theory of overaccumulation is rejected Marx's views on the rate of profit, growth of employment, and slow rise of wages are almost wholly ignored today: The Classical Theory of Economic Growth """Marx's argument commands far more attention when it is applied to the century and a half prior to the publication of Capital. He kept close to known facts and his propositions derive from them. That is why historians, and especially economic historians, take his analysis very seriously indeed. Many disagree with him, but where they present well-argued accounts of the Industrial Revolution and its aftermath which differ from the Marxist one, they have to present a documented case against the Marxist interpretation of these events.21 Marxist history and Marxist economic history is now very much part of the mainstream of scholarship. In contrast, Marx's analysis of the laws which influence the development of economies receives little or no attention from economists. They have appeared a complete irrelevance to most because they are so much at variance with what has happened since 1867. Are economists in fact right to pay such scant regard to the economics of Capital? Marx predicted deepening crises and a declining rate or profit. Are there not deepening crises, and is not the rate of profit falling? [1] The crises, in so far as their explanation is Keynesian, depend on repeated failures of effective demand to keep pace with the growth of productive capacity. Marx called such difficulties a failure to realise surplus-value, and he said a little about the nature and implications of the realisation problem. Keynes and the economists who followed him have set all this out in very great detail, and with a rigour which Marx never attempted.22 What he said about the realisation problem (which echoes the previous analyses of Quesnay and Malthus) will seem wholly sensible to many today, but there is not very much of it. This was not an element of Capital which he worked through fully and completely, and what he had to say made little impact until Keynes rediscovered the same lines of argument, and set them out in a way which convinced his contemporaries. [2] """ Eltis 2000: TODO: The Classical Theory of Economic Growth """Marx analysed the determination of the share of profits in terms of relative class power. As was argued in Chapter 7, at the time that Marx wrote, capitalists could pass and enforce legislation to limit the power and indeed the very existence of trade unions. At the same time there were few laws to limit or constrain the profit maximising behaviour of capitalists: just a few which were passed with great difficulty to limit the hours of employment of women and children. Employers were wholly free to combine, without government attempts to control them, to fix prices in relation to wages and to limit wages, and they could dismiss workers at will and without compensation. In the absence of welfare provision for the unemployed, mere survival dictated that workers sell their labour-power on the best terms they could get. Many capitalists, in contrast, could survive financially without workers for months or even years. Capital therefore had the power to coerce labour, and some see in this the most fundamental of all the conditions that permit exploitation.""" Eltis 2000: TODO: The Classical Theory of Economic Growth """In the late twentieth century, in contrast, legislation has been passed in many countries which sets virtually no limits to the exercise of union power, while at the same time capitalists can only dismiss workers if they pay considerable compensation. Capitalists are forbidden to combine to fix prices as a result of legislation which is often enforced. Such laws as exist to limit the exercise of union power are, in contrast, often not enforced because governments believe that they cannot or should not use a degree of force against strikers which would have been imposed as a matter of course (to contain riots) in the nineteenth century. Still more fundamentally, welfare provisions are such that it is an open question whether workers can live without companies for longer than companies can survive without workers. Capital therefore now lacks the power to coerce labour. Someone who has learned from Marx would say, and rightly, that these changes are partly due to an increase in the power of the working class and a decline in the power of the capitalist class. The rate of exploitation has in consequence fallen, which has raised the share of wages and salaries in the national income and reduced the share of profits - and indeed the rate of profit.""" Eltis 2000: TODO: The Classical Theory of Economic Growth """A reader of Marx would think it right to take all the factors which influence income distribution into account, including in particular the decline in the power of capital to coerce labour, and the underlying reasons why the power of business interests to pass laws and have them enforced has declined. An economist who has learned nothing from Marx can all too easily fall into the trap of attempting to explain changes in income distribution by assuming a theoretical world where there is no institutional change, and where workers and those who control corporations are equally free to act to maximise their utilities in an unchanging legal and institutional environment. Marx provided a richer analysis. His predictions about the nature and direction of technical change and what followed from this may have been quite largely mistaken, but his attempt to explain income distribution as a consequence of relative class power will always deserve close attention.""" # theory of accumulation was common: see eg keynes on overaccumulation John Maynard Keynes, 1936 General Theory of Employment, lnterest and Money, pp. 1 29-1 3 l: When involuntary unemployment exists, the marginal disutility of labour is necessarily less than the utility of the marginal product. [ ... ] Pyramid-building, earthquakes, even wars may serve to increase wealth, if the education of our slatesmen on the principles of the classical economics stands in the way of anything better. [ ... ]Just as wars have been the only form of large-scale loan expenditure which statesmen have thought justifiable, so gold-mining is the only pretext for digging holes in the ground which has recommended itself to bankers as sound finance; and each of these activities has played its part in progress - failing something better. Ancient Egypt was doubly fortunate, and doubtless owed to this its fabled wealth, in that it possessed two aclivities, namely pyramid-building as weil as the search for precious metals, the fruits of which, since they could not serve the needs of man by being consumed, did not stale with abundance. # theory of falling profit rate was common: see eg john smith and john stuart mill these quotes are probably in Eltis 2000 TODO #####c ##### # rosa luxemburg: revolutionary theory of catastrophism #####o # reform vs revolution is not a binary choice Luxemburg 1899: it is not reform *or* revolution but reform *and* revolution; struggling for reforms organizes the masses to allow a social revolution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/887041277797990420/unknown.png """At first view the title of this work may be found surprising. Can social democracy be against reforms? Can we counterpose social revolution, the transformation of the existing order, our final goal, to social reforms? Certainly not. The daily struggle for reforms, for the amelioration of the condition of the workers within the framework of the existing social order, and for democratic institutions, is for social democracy indissolubly tied to its final goal. The struggle for reforms is its means; the social revolution, its goal.""" # catastrophism is not mechanistic Rosseas 1979: Luxemburg believed that capitalism would mechanically (necessarily) collapse, but that socialism would not necessarily arise from its collapse: """It was in the "or" of the "decline of civilization or the transition to socialism" and in the "Barbarism or Socialism" slogan of her 1916 Junius Pamphlet that the key to understanding Luxemburg lay. She was anything but a subscriber to Kautsky's notion of a mechanical dialectic (in his Road to Power). As Geras points out, Luxemburg equated barbarism with the collapse of capitalism - a collapse that, if unchallenged, would doom all civilization to extinction. The need for revolutionary activity was all the greater if extinction was to be avoided. The supersession of capitalism [by socialism] was a "necessity" in the sense that without it we are all doomed, not in the sense that it would inevitably follow the collapse of capitalism.""" # cause of catastrophe: overaccumulation (insufficient effective demand) Rosseas 1979: summary of Luxemburg's collapse theory: real wages are stuck at the minimum do not rise, which means effective demand (consumption) does not rise, which means aggregate supply (production) does not rise: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/887030602346397726/unknown.png # not the cause of catastrophe: falling rate of profit (too slow) Luxemburg 1899: Luxemburg claims that a falling rate of profit would eventually make all new investment unprofitable: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/891443791364505671/unknown.png """In the “unhindered” advance of capitalist production lurks a threat to capitalism that is much greater than crises. It is the threat of the constant fall of the rate of profit, resulting not only from the contradiction between production and exchange, but from the growth of the productivity of labour itself. The fall in the rate of profit has the extremely dangerous tendency of rendering impossible any enterprise for small and middle-sized capitals. It thus limits the new formation and therefore the extension of placements of capital.""" Luxemburg 1915: However, Luxemburg also thought that the falling rate of profit was so slow that it would never cause the collapse of capitalism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/891445589164847184/unknown.png """[W]e are left with the somewhat oblique comfort provided by a little ‘expert’ from the Dresdener Volkszeitung who, after thoroughly destroying my book, explains that capitalism will eventually collapse ‘because of the falling rate of profit’. One is not too sure exactly how the dear man envisages this – whether the capitalist class will at a certain point commit suicide in despair at the low rate of profit, or whether it will somehow declare that business is so bad that it is simply not worth the trouble, whereupon it will hand the key over to the proletariat? However that may be this comfort is unfortunately dispelled by a single sentence by Marx, namely the statement that ‘large capitals will compensate for the fall in the rate of profit by mass production’. **Thus there is still some time to pass before capitalism collapses because of the falling rate of profit, roughly until the sun burns out.**""" ^ in adition to Luxemburg, there is no reason to believe that capitalism faces more crises or sees a falling rate of investment: see the "rate of profit" section # delaying catastrophe: imperialism expands markets universally Robinson 1968: Luxemburg claims that imperialism allows capitalism to survive the problem of overaccumulation, by shifting investment abroad: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/884504205136654356/unknown.png """In chapter xxvi Rosa Luxemburg advances her central thesis—that it is the invasion of primitive economies by capitalism which keeps the system alive. [....] The ever-growing capacity of the export industries requires the products of Department I, thus maintaining investment at home. [....] The process of building up this capital provides an outlet for the old industries and rescues them from the contradictions inherent in deficiency of demand.""" Luxemburg 1913: Luxemburg argues the drive to accumulate causes capitalist countries, via imperialism, to expand capitalist markets to the entire world; but because capitalism (allegedly) cannot absorb its own surplus value, this will cause capitalism to collapse: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/884245548520079370/unknown.png """The premises which are postulated in Marx’s diagram of accumulation accordingly represent no more than the historical tendency of the movement of accumulation and its logical conclusion. [....] Its ultimate aim, that is to say, is to establish the exclusive and universal domination of capitalist production in all countries and for all branches of industry. Yet this argument does not lead anywhere. As soon as this final result is achieved — in theory, of course, because it can never actually happen — accumulation must come to a stop. The realisation and capitalisation of surplus value become impossible to accomplish. Just as soon as reality begins to correspond to Marx’s diagram of enlarged reproduction, the end of accumulation is in sight, it has reached its limits, and capitalist production is in extremis. For capital, the standstill of accumulation means that the development of the productive forces is arrested, and the collapse of capitalism follows inevitably, as an objective historical necessity. This is the reason for the contradictory behaviour of capitalism in the final stage of its historical career: imperialism.""" Luxemburg 1915: imperialism prolongs capitalism's existence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/891439779739234375/unknown.png """Imperialism is as much a historical method for prolonging capital's existence as it is the surest way of setting an objective limit to its existence as fast as possible. This is not to say that the final point need actually be attained. The very tendency of capitalist development towards this end is expressed in forms which make the concluding phase of capitalism a period of catastrophes. The more ruthless1y capital uses militarism to put an end to noncapitalist strata in the outside world and at home, the more it depresses the conditions of existence of all working strata, the more the day-today history of capital accumulation on the world stage changes into an endless chain of political and social catastrophes and convulsions; these latter, together with the periodic economic catastrophes in the shape of crises, make continued accumulation impossible and the rebellion of the international working class against the rule of capital necessary, even before it has economically reached the limits it set for itself.""" # failure of luxemburgian catastrophism: overaccumulation model itself Robinson 1968: even granting constant real wages, if capitalists can lend to each other, collapse is not inevitable: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/884478647770161202/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/884478672210370640/unknown.png """Section III .... opens with a return to Marx’s model for a capitalist system with accumulation going on. [Luxemburg] then sets out a fresh model allowing for technical progress. The rate of exploitation (the ratio of surplus to wages) is rising, for real wages remain constant while output per man increases. [....] But there is no need to paddle in the arithmetic to find where the difficulty lies. The model is over-determined because of the rule that the increment of capital within each department at the end of a year must equal the saving made within the same department during the year. If capitalists from Department II [produces consumption goods] were permitted to lend part of their savings to Department I [produces capital, "means of production"] to be invested in its capital, a breakdown would no longer be inevitable. Suppose that total real wages are constant and that real consumption by capitalists increases slowly, so that the real output of Department II rises at a slower rate than productivity, then the amount of labour employed in it is shrinking. The ratio of capital to labour however is rising as a consequence of capital-using technical progress. The output of Department I, and its productive capacity, is growing through time. Capital invested in Department I is accumulating faster than the saving of the capitalists in Department I, and capitalists of Department II, who have no profitable outlet in their own industries for their savings, acquire titles to part of the capital in Department I by supplying the difference between investment in Department I and its own saving. For any increase in the stock of capital of both departments taken together, required by technical progress and demand conditions, there is an appropriate amount of saving, and so long as the total accumulation required and total saving fit, there is no breakdown.""" Robinson 1968: This converts capitalist collapse from "historic necessity" to historic contingency: Under Luxemburg's model, stagnation *may* happen if capitalist savings-investment rates demand rates of accumulation higher than technical progress can sustain: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/884482122042204190/unknown.png """But here we find the clue to the real contradiction. These quantities might conceivably fit, but there is no guarantee that they will. If the ratio of saving which the capitalists (taken together) choose to make exceeds the rate of accumulation dictated by technical progress, the excess savings can only be ‘capitalised’ if there is an outlet for investment outside the system. [....] Once more we can substitute for a supposed logical necessity a plausible hypothesis about the nature of the real case, and so rescue the succeeding argument. If in reality the distribution of income between workers and capitalists, and the propensity to save of capitalists, are such as to require a rate of accumulation which exceeds the rate of increase in the stock of capital appropriate to technical conditions, then there is a chronic excess of the potential supply of real capital over the demand for it and the system must fall into chronic depression.""" # failure of luxemburgian catastrophism: other main model assumptions Robinson 1968: "Luxemburg [...] neglects the rise in real wages [...] and denies the internal inducement to invest provided by technical progress, two factors which help to rescue capitalism[.] [...] She is left with only [...] imperialism to account for continuous capital accumulation[.]" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/884483877329076264/unknown.png """Rosa Luxemburg, as we have seen, neglects the rise in real wages which takes place as capitalism develops, and denies the internal inducement to invest provided by technical progress, two factors which help to rescue capitalism from the difficulties which it creates for itself. She is left with only one influence (economic imperialism) to account for continuous capital accumulation, so that her analysis is incomplete. All the same, few would deny that the extension of capitalism into new territories was the mainspring of what an academic economist has called the ‘vast secular boom’ of the last two hundred years,56 and many academic economists account for the uneasy condition of capitalism in the twentieth century largely by the ‘closing of the frontier’ all over the world.57""" # catastrophism contradicts reformism Luxemburg 1899: Luxemburg asserts that those who reject catastrophism ("theory of collapse") believe that socialism is no longer a historic necessity: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/884245717416308786/unknown.png """Revisionist theory thus places itself in a dilemma. Either the socialist transformation is, as was admitted up to now, the consequence of the internal contradictions of capitalism, and with the growth of capitalism will develop its inner contradictions, resulting inevitably, at some point, in its collapse (in that case the “means of adaptation” are ineffective and the theory of collapse is correct); or the “means of adaptation” will really stop the collapse of the capitalist system and thereby enable capitalism to maintain itself by suppressing its own contradictions. In that case socialism ceases to be a historic necessity. It then becomes anything you want to call it, but it is no longer the result of the material development of society.""" Luxemburg 1913: Luxemburg asserts that those who show that capitalism will not collapse due to crisis (because it can continue to grow forever) necessarily show that "socialism is impossible": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/884246322004242442/unknown.png """Assuming the accumulation of capital to be without limits, one has obviously proved the unlimited capacity of capitalism to survive! Accumulation is the specifically capitalist method of expanding production, of furthering labour productivity, of developing the productive forces, of economic progress. If the capitalist mode of production can ensure boundless expansion of the productive forces, of economic progress, it is invincible indeed. The most important objective argument in support of socialist theory breaks down; socialist political action and the ideological import of the proletarian class struggle cease to reflect economic events, and socialism no longer appears an historical necessity. Setting out to show that capitalism is possible, this trend of reasoning ends up by showing that socialism is impossible.""" Luxemburg 1915: rejection of collapse theory means rejection of socialism as historical necessity and return to ethical socialism (justifying socialism on the basis of capitalism's injustice): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/887043354532151306/unknown.png """According to Marx, the rebellion of the workers, the class struggle, is only the ideological reflection of the objective historical necessity of socialism, resulting from the objective impossibility of capitalism at a certain economic stage. Of course, that does not mean (it still seems necessary to point out those basics of Marxism to the ‘experts’) that the historical process has to be, or even could be, exhausted to the very limit of this economic impossibility. Long before this, the objective tendency of capitalist development in this direction is sufficient to produce such a social and political sharpening of contradictions in society that they must terminate. But these social and political contradictions are essentially only a product of the economic indefensibility of capitalism. The situation continues to sharpen as this becomes increasingly obvious. **If we assume, with the ‘experts’, the economic infinity of capitalist accumulation, then the vital foundation on which socialism rests will disappear. We then take refuge in the mist of pre-Marxist systems and schools which attempted to deduce socialism solely on the basis of the injustice and evils of today’s world and the revolutionary determination of the working classes.**""" #####c ##### # revolutionary situation: definition and theory #####o # terminology * Revolutionary Situation: a situation in which a successful socialist revolution is probable * Objective Situation / Objective Forces: the objective economic and social conditions that enable socialist revolution * Subjective Forces / Subjective Situation: the organized military forces that support the socialist revolution # blogpost summary SocDoneLeft 2023: contextualizes the quotes below, plus summarizes them into a four-part model: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1102150941442056222/image.png """We can summarize the key points of Lenin and Mao's views on revolution into a simplified four-part model: Objective Absolute: Living conditions of lower classes are so unacceptably bad that they are "prepared to die for" socialist revolution Objective Relative: Living conditions of lower classes are far worse than before, as in depression or war Subjective Absolute: Lower classes are strong, organized, and revolutionary enough to take and hold state power Subjective Relative: Upper classes are weaker, less organized, and not reactionary enough to beat down the lower classes This model concludes that a revolutionary situation occurs when all four points are met. As Lenin noted above, a revolutionary situation does not imply an actual revolution -- just the possibility of one.""" # importance of revolutionary situation Lenin 1918: <> The Proletarian Revolution and the Renegade Kautsky """Secondly, it is obligatory for a Marxist to count on a European revolution if a revolutionary situation exists. It is the ABC of Marxism that the tactics of the socialist proletariat cannot be the same both when there is a revolutionary situation and when there is no revolutionary situation.""" # lenin definition in 1913 Lenin 1913: Russia is in a uniquely revolutionary situation, while Europe is not, because of the unique circumstances in Russia: """The colossal superiority of the Russian strikes over those in the European countries, the most advanced countries, demonstrates, not the special qualities or special abilities of Russia’s workers, but the special conditions in present-day Russia, the existence of a revolutionary situation, the growth of a directly revolutionary crisis. When the moment of a similar growth of revolution approaches in Europe (there it will be a socialist and not a bourgeois-democratic revolution, as in our country), the proletariat of the most developed capitalist countries will launch far more vigorous revolutionary strikes, demonstrations, and armed struggle against the defenders of wage-slavery.""" Lenin 1913: Russia's revolutionary situation results from the very poor quality of life of the proletariat, small producers, and peasants, which is [1] "glaringly inconsistent" with Russia's productivity; [2] inconsistent with "the level of class consciousness" since 1905's mass revolt; [3] the "upper classes cannot" are "unable to rule and govern in the old way": """Russia is experiencing a revolutionary situation because the oppression of the vast majority of the population—not only of the proletariat but of nine-tenths of the small producers, particularly the peasants—has intensified to the maximum, and this intensified oppression, starvation, poverty, lack of rights, humiliation of the people is, further more, glaringly inconsistent with the state of Russia’s productive forces, inconsistent with the level of the class consciousness and the demands of the masses roused by the year 1905, and inconsistent with the state of affairs in all neighbouring not only European but Asian—countries. But that is not all. Oppression alone, no matter how great, does not always give rise to a revolutionary situation in a country. In most cases it is not enough for revolution that the lower classes should not want to live in the old way. It is also necessary that the upper classes should be unable to rule and govern in the old way. This is what we see in Russia today.""" Lenin 1913: "the sum-total of the objective conditions" makes the Russian situation revolutionary, because it makes a bourgeois-democratic revolution impossible but socialist revolution possible: """The condition of the mass of the population in Russia, the aggravation of their position owing to the new agrarian policy (to which the feudal landowners had to snatch at as their last means of salvation), the international situation, and the nature of the general political crisis that has taken shape in our country—such is the sum-total of the objective conditions making Russia’s situation a revolutionary one because of the impossibility of carrying out the tasks of a bourgeois revolution by following the present course and by the means available to the government and the exploiting classes.""" # lenin definition in 1915 Lenin 1915: a revolution is impossible without a revolutionary situation, which does not guarantee revolution: """To the Marxist it is indisputable that a revolution is impossible without a revolutionary situation; furthermore, it is not every revolutionary situation that leads to revolution.""" Lenin 1915: a revolution is impossible without a revolutionary situation, which does not guarantee revolution: """What, generally speaking, are the symptoms of a revolutionary situation? We shall certainly not be mistaken if we indicate the following three major symptoms: (1) when it is impossible for the ruling classes to maintain their rule without any change; when there is a crisis, in one form or another, among the “upper classes”, a crisis in the policy of the ruling class, leading to a fissure through which the discontent and indignation of the oppressed classes burst forth. For a revolution to take place, it is usually insufficient for “the lower classes not to want” to live in the old way; it is also necessary that “the upper classes should be unable” to live in the old way; (2) when the suffering and want of the oppressed classes have grown more acute than usual; (3) when, as a consequence of the above causes, there is a considerable increase in the activity of the masses, who uncomplainingly allow themselves to be robbed in “peace time”, but, in turbulent times, are drawn both by all the circumstances of the crisis and by the “upper classes” themselves into independent historical action. Without these objective changes, which are independent of the will, not only of individual groups and parties but even of individual classes, a revolution, as a general rule, is impossible. The totality of all these objective changes is called a revolutionary situation. Such a situation existed in 1905 in Russia, and in all revolutionary periods in the West; it also existed in Germany in the sixties of the last century, and in Russia in 1859-61 and 1879-80, although no revolution occurred in these instances. Why was that? It was because it is not every revolutionary situation that gives rise to a revolution; revolution arises only out of a situation in which the above-mentioned objective changes are accompanied by a subjective change, namely, the ability of the revolutionary class to take revolutionary mass action strong enough to break (or dislocate) the old government, which never, not even in a period of crisis, “falls”, if it is not toppled over.""" # lenin definition in 1917 Lenin 1917: the Russian mass unrest of 1905-07 exposed the corruption and blood-thirst of the Romanov monarchy, which led all classes to fight against it: """**This first revolution**, and the succeeding period of counter-revolution (1907–14), laid bare the very essence of the tsarist monarchy, brought it to the “utmost limit”, **exposed all the rottenness and infamy, the cynicism and corruption of the tsar’s clique**, dominated by that monster, Rasputin. **It exposed all the bestiality of the Romanov family—those pogrom-mongers who drenched Russia in the blood of Jews, workers and revolutionaries**, those landlords, “first among peers”, who own millions of dessiatines of land and are prepared to stoop to any brutality, to any crime, **to ruin and strangle any number of citizens in order to preserve the “sacred right of property” for themselves and their class**. Without the Revolution of 1905–07 and the counter-revolution of 1907–14, there could not have been that clear “self determination” of all classes of the Russian people and of the nations inhabiting Russia, that determination of the relation of these classes to each other and to the tsarist monarchy, which manifested itself during the eight days of the February-March Revolution of 1917.""" Lenin 1917: the imperialist world war (WW1) caused political and economic crises across the world and accelerated history: """[T]his required a great, mighty and all-powerful “stage manager”, capable, on the one hand, of vastly accelerating the course of world history, and, on the other, of **engendering world-wide crises of unparalleled intensity—economic, political, national and international.** Apart from an extraordinary acceleration of world history, it was also necessary that history make particularly abrupt turns, in order that at one such turn the filthy and blood-stained cart of the Romanov monarchy should be overturned at one stroke. **[T]his mighty accelerator was the imperialist world war.**""" Lenin 1917: the revolutionary crisis broke out first in Russia because the Russian gov't was most disorganized and it had the strongest revolutionary tradition: """It was natural that the revolutionary crisis should have broken out first of all **in tsarist Russia, where the disorganisation was most appalling and the proletariat most revolutionary** (not by virtue of any special qualities, but because of the living traditions of 1905).""" Lenin 1917: military defeats of the Russian empire shook up its machinery and replaced its reactionary monarchists with fresh proletarian and bourgeois recruits: """This crisis was precipitated by the series of extremely severe defeats sustained by Russia and her allies. They shook up the old machinery of government and the old order and roused the anger of all classes of the population against them; **they embittered the army, wiped out a very large part of the old commanding personnel, composed of die-hard aristocrats and exceptionally corrupt bureaucratic elements, and replaced it by a young, fresh, mainly bourgeois, commoner, petty-bourgeois personnel.**""" # lenin definition in 1920 Lenin 1920: repeats what Lenin said in 1913: """The fundamental law of revolution, which has been confirmed by all revolutions and especially by all three Russian revolutions in the twentieth century, is as follows: for a revolution to take place it is not enough for the exploited and oppressed masses to realise the impossibility of living in the old way, and demand changes; for a revolution to take place it is essential that the exploiters should not be able to live and rule in the old way. It is only when the “lower classes” do not want to live in the old way and the “upper classes” cannot carry on in the old way that the revolution can triumph. This truth can be expressed in other words: revolution is impossible without a nation-wide crisis (affecting both the exploited and the exploiters). It follows that, for a revolution to take place, it is essential, first, that a majority of the workers (or at least a majority of the class-conscious, thinking, and politically active workers) should fully realise that revolution is necessary, and that they should be prepared to die for it; second, that the ruling classes should be going through a governmental crisis, which draws even the most backward masses into politics (symptomatic of any genuine revolution is a rapid, tenfold and even hundredfold increase in the size of the working and oppressed masses—hitherto apathetic—who are capable of waging the political struggle), weakens the government, and makes it possible for the revolutionaries to rapidly overthrow it.""" # misattributed quote: mao on revolutionary situation Griffith 1961: a revolutionary situation exists when gov'ts fail to provide a decent standard of life for the great majority of its situations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021205361560133735/unknown.png """A potential revolutionary situation exists in any country where the government consistently fails in its obligation to ensure at least a minimally decent standard of life for the great majority of its citizens. If there also exists even the nucleus of a revolutionary party able to supply doctrine and organization, only one ingredient is needed: the instrument for violent revolutionary action.""" ^ Samuel Griffith was a Brigadier General in the US Marine Corps; he translated Mao's *On Guerrilla Warfare* in the 1940's and again in the 1960's: Griffith 1961: a revolutionary situation exists when gov'ts fail to provide a decent standard of life for the great majority of its situations: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021237773874769930/unknown.png """In many countries, there are but two classes, the rich and the miserably poor. In these countries, the relatively small middle class—merchants, bankers, doctors, lawyers, engineers—lacks forceful leadership, is fragmented by unceasing factional quarrels, and is politically ineffective. Its program, which usually posits a socialized society and some form of liberal parliamentary democracy, is anathema to the exclusive and tightly knit possessing minority. It is also rejected by the frustrated intellectual youth, who move irrevocably toward violent revolution. To the illiterate and destitute, it represents a package of promises that experience tells them will never be fulfilled. People who live at subsistence level want first things to be put first. They are not particularly interested in freedomof religion, freedom of the press, free enterprise as we understand it, or the secret ballot. Their needs are more basic: land, tools, fertilizers, something better than rags for their children, houses to replace their shacks, freedomfrom police oppression, medical attention, primary schools. Those who have known oniy poverty have begun to wonder why they should continue to wait passively for improvements. They see—and not always through Red-tinted glasses—examples of peoples who have changed the structure of their societies, and they ask, "What have we to lose?" When a great many people begin to ask themselves this question, a revolutionary guerrilla situation is incipient.""" Mao 1937: no such line occurs in "On Guerrilla Warfare"; note that the Marxists.org text is identical to Griffith's translation: # mao: when revolutionary struggle is inevitable Mao 1937: the revolutionary struggle is "the inevitable result" when the oppressed "reach the limits of their endurance" in the clash against the oppressor: """These guerrilla operations must not be considered as an independent form of warfare. They are but one step in the total war, one aspect of the revolutionary struggle. They are the inevitable result of the clash between oppressor and oppressed when the latter reach the limits of their endurance. In our case, these hostilities began at a time when the people were unable to endure any more from the Japanese imperialists. Lenin, in People and Revolution, said: "A people's insurrection and a people's revolution are not only natural but inevitable." We consider guerrilla operations as but one aspect of our total or mass war because they, lacking the quality of independence, are of themselves incapable of providing a solution to the struggle.""" [note: Lenin wrote no document titled "People and Revolution"] # mao: on the subjective and objective forces of the revolution in China and Europe Mao 1930: the subjective forces of the revolution are weak in China, but so are the subjective forces of reaction; in contrast, the subjective forces of reaction are far stronger in Europe: """1. Although the subjective forces of the revolution in China are now weak, so also are all organizations (organs of political power, armed forces, political parties, etc.) of the reactionary ruling classes, resting as they do on the backward and fragile social and economic structure of China. This helps to explain why revolution cannot break out at once in the countries of Western Europe where, although the subjective forces of revolution are now perhaps somewhat stronger than in China, the forces of the reactionary ruling classes are many times stronger. In China the revolution will undoubtedly move towards a high tide more rapidly, for although the subjective forces of the revolution at present are weak, the forces of the counter-revolution are relatively weak too.""" Mao 1930: the subjective forces of the revolution in China can grow rapidly because of the "conditions prevailing in China" (the objective situation): """2. The subjective forces of the revolution have indeed been greatly weakened since the defeat of the revolution in 1927. The remaining forces are very small and those comrades who judge by appearances alone naturally feel pessimistic. But if we judge by essentials, it is quite another story. Here we can apply the old Chinese saying, "A single spark can start a prairie fire." In other words, our forces, although small at present, will grow very rapidly. In the conditions prevailing in China, their growth is not only possible but indeed inevitable, as the May 30th Movement and the Great Revolution which followed have fully proved. When we look at a thing, we must examine its essence and treat its appearance merely as an usher at the threshold, and once we cross the threshold, we must grasp the essence of the thing; this is the only reliable and scientific method of analysis.""" Mao 1930: the objective situation in China suggests that a "revolutionary high tide" is developing, and the situation in "China and the world as a whole" give some cause for "optimism": """4. The objective situation today is still such that comrades who see only the superficial appearance and not the essence of what is before them are liable to be misled. In particular, when our comrades working in the Red Army are defeated in battle or encircled or pursued by strong enemy forces, they often unwittingly generalize and exaggerate their momentary, specific and limited situation, as though the situation in China and the world as a whole gave no cause for optimism and the prospects of victory for the revolution were remote. The reason they seize on the appearance and brush aside the essence in their observation of things is that they have not made a scientific analysis of the essence of the overall situation. The question whether there will soon be a revolutionary high tide in China can be decided only by making a detailed examination to ascertain whether the contradictions leading to a revolutionary high tide are really developing.""" Mao 1930: the objective situation in China suggests that a revolutionary high tide is coming, "all China is littered with dry faggots which will soon be aflame": """In the wake of imperialist commercial aggression, Chinese merchant-capitalist extortions, heavier government taxation, etc., comes the deepening of the contradiction between the landlord class and the peasantry, that is, exploitation through rent and usury is aggravated and the hatred of the peasants for the landlords grows. Because of the pressure of foreign goods, the exhaustion of the purchasing power of the worker and peasant masses, and the increase in government taxation, more and more dealers in Chinese-made goods and independent producers are being driven into bankruptcy. Because the reactionary government, though short of provisions and funds, endlessly expands its armies and thus constantly extends the warfare, the masses of soldiers are in a constant state of privation. Because of the growth in government taxation, the rise in rent and interest demanded by the landlords and the daily spread of the disasters of war, there are famine and banditry everywhere and the peasant masses and the urban poor can hardly keep alive. Because the schools have no money, many students fear that their education may be interrupted; because production is backward, many graduates have no hope of employment. Once we understand all these contradictions, we shall see in what a desperate situation, in what a chaotic state, China finds herself. We shall also see that the high tide of revolution against the imperialists, the warlords and the landlords is inevitable, and will come very soon. All China is littered with dry faggots which will soon be aflame. The saying, "A single spark can start a prairie fire", is an apt description of how the current situation will develop. We need only look at the strikes by the workers, the uprisings by the peasants, the mutinies of soldiers and the strikes of students which are developing in many places to see that it cannot be long before a "spark" kindles "a prairie fire".""" # mao: on the subjective and objective forces of the revolution in China Mao 1928: "red political power" can exist in China because reactionary forces beset by infighting and very poor living conditions among the poor and middle classes: Why is it that Red Political Power can Exist in China? """The present regime of the new warlords of the Kuomintang remains a regime of the comprador class in the cities and the landlord class in the countryside; it is a regime which has capitulated to imperialism in its foreign relations and which at home has replaced the old warlords with new ones, subjecting the working class and the peasantry to an even more ruthless economic exploitation and political oppression. The bourgeois-democratic revolution which started in Kwangtung Province had gone only halfway when the comprador and landlord classes usurped the leadership and immediately shifted it on to the road of counter-revolution; throughout the country the workers, the peasants, the other sections of the common people, and even the bourgeoisie, have remained under counter-revolutionary rule and obtained not the slightest particle of political or economic emancipation. [....] The contradictions and struggles among the cliques of warlords in China reflect the contradictions and struggles among the imperialist powers. Hence, as long as China is divided among the imperialist powers, the various cliques of warlords cannot under any circumstances come to terms, and whatever compromises they may reach will only be temporary. A temporary compromise today engenders a bigger war tomorrow. The long-term survival inside a country of one or more small areas under Red political power completely encircled by a White regime is a phenomenon that has never occurred anywhere else in the world. There are special reasons for this unusual phenomenon. It can exist and develop only under certain conditions.""" #####c ##### # random marxist quotes #####o # marx quote: the state of the future Marx 1875: TODO: """The question then arises: What transformation will the state undergo in communist society? In other words, what social functions will remain in existence there that are analogous to present state functions? This question can only be answered scientifically, and one does not get a flea-hop nearer to the problem by a thousand-fold combination of the word 'people' with the word 'state'. Between capitalist and communist society there lies the period of the revolutionary transformation of the one into the other. Corresponding to this is also a political transition period in which the state can be nothing but the revolutionary dictatorship of the proletariat. Now the program does not deal with this nor with the future state of communist society. Its political demands contain nothing beyond the old democratic litany familiar to all: universal suffrage, direct legislation, popular rights, a people's militia, etc. They are a mere echo of the bourgeois People's party, of the League of Peace and Freedom. They are all demands which, insofar as they are not exaggerated in fantastic presentation, have already been realized. Only the state to which they belong does not lie within the borders of the German Empire, but in Switzerland, the United States, etc. This sort of "state of the future" is a present-day state, although existing outside the "framework" of the German Empire.""" Marx 1875: taxes are the basis of government machinery and nothing else; income taxes presuppose multiple social classes: """That, in fact, by the word "state" is meant the government machine, or the state insofar as it forms a special organism separated from society through division of labor, is shown by the words "the German Workers' party demands as the economic basis of the state: a single progressive income tax", etc. Taxes are the economic basis of the government machinery and of nothing else. In the state of the future, existing in Switzerland, this demand has been pretty well fulfilled. Income tax presupposes various sources of income of the various social classes, and hence capitalist society. It is, therefore, nothing remarkable that the Liverpool financial reformers — bourgeois headed by Gladstone's brother — are putting forward the same demand as the program.""" # engels quote: free trade Engels on Marx's views on free trade: """From this point of view, 40 years ago Marx pronounced, in principle, in favor of Free Trade as the more progressive plan, and therefore the plan which would soonest bring capitalist society to that deadlock. But if Marx declared in favor of Free Trade on that ground, is that not a reason for every supporter of the present order of society to declare against Free Trade? If Free Trade is stated to be revolutionary, must not all good citizens vote for Protection as a conservative plan? If a country nowadays accepts Free Trade, it will certainly not do so to please the socialists. It will do so because Free trade has become a necessity for the industrial capitalists. But if it should reject Free Trade and stick to Protection, in order to cheat the socialists out of the expected social catastrophe, that will not hurt the prospects of socialism in the least. Protection is a plan for artificially manufacturing manufacturers, and therefore also a plan for artificially manufacturing wage laborers. You cannot breed the one without breeding the other.""" # debs quote Debs 1902 speech "No Masters, No Slaves": "the ballot is the weapon": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/975131132813246584/unknown.png """I appeal to you workingmen to stand together today. Resolve that you will be true to your class. Then, in the spirit of Andrew Jackson, accept the consequences of your act. Emphasize every industrial conflict by political action. The ballot is the weapon. It was found after a thousand years of blood and tears. It is criminal not to make use of it, or, worse still, to use it to forge our fetters more securely.""" #####c #####c ##### # # socialist theory on internationalism # #####o ##### # ww1: social patriotism, defencism, internationalism, defeatism: kautsky and lenin #####o # summary During World War 1, most social-democratic parties split into a majority-defencist and minority-internationalist faction. Defencists argued that socdems should support defensive war efforts, but not offensive war efforts, seeking peace through defensive stalemate. (More extreme, social patriots argued that socdems should support all war efforts.) Internationalists argued that socdems should oppose all war efforts, seeking peace through mass strike. (More extreme, defeatists argued that socdems should encourage the defeat of their own country, in order to bring about a civil war that they might win.) Most French and German Social Democrats were defencists. Most Russian Social Democrats were internationalists until 1917, when they favored "revolutionary defencism" (continuing the war to defend the revolution, Mensheviks and SRs) or "revolutionary defeatists" (abandoning the war to start and win a civil war to complete the revolution, Bolsheviks). # kautsky: not clear which victor is better for workers and democracy Kautsky 1914 trans Goode 1983: it's not clear whether "the proletarian and democratic interest" lies more in a French-Russian victory or a German victory; Russian Tsarist despotism is worse than German Kaiserreich is worse than French Republicanism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/820860600800378881/1017684937509441607/unknown.png """[Our French comrades] feel themselves obliged to struggle as Republicans against the Kaiserreich. But the same obligation to struggle was felt by most German Social Democrats, for to them the war seems to be a struggle of a country which has universal and equal suffrage, the right of association, and the freedom of the press, against Tsarist despotism. The Germans are fighting both the Tsar and the Republicans, the French against German 'imperialism' and for Russian absolutism. But where does the proletarian and democratic interest lie? But if in the present situation neither the criterion of a war of aggression nor that of proletarian interest can give rise to an equally clear and binding conception for the comrades of all countries, there remains a· third possibility for the deciding criterion. One can dispute who is the aggressor, who has been attacked; which threatens the democracy of Europe more - a victory of Germany over France or a victory of Russia over Germany[.]""" # kautsky: defencism is correct Kautsky 1914 trans Goode 1983: the proletarian of every country have an urgent interest in preventing actual enemy territorial invasion, which yields "the horrors and devastation of war in its most terrible form": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/820860600800378881/1017684990710005760/unknown.png """[B]ut one thing is clear: every country and the proletariat of every country have an urgent interest in preventing their country's enemy from crossing its borders, thus preventing the horrors and devastation of war in its most terrible form, that of enemy invasion. In every national state, the proletariat too must use all its energy to preserve intact the independence and unity of its national area. This is an essential part of democracy, of the necessary basis for the struggle and victory of the proletariat.""" Kautsky 1914 trans Goode 1983: social democrats must treat the war as one of defence only, with security as the goal insead of "humilitating or mutilating" enemy countries: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/820860600800378881/1017684209894182933/unknown.png """Further, the Social Democracy in every nation is obliged to consider the war only as a war of defence, and to set as its goal only defending itself against the enemy, not of 'punishing' or belittling the enemy. As this conception seeks the causes of the war not in the personal depravity or inferiority of the opponent, but in objective conditions, it will strive for the security which the conclusion of peace brings not by humiliating or mutilating its opponent, which would only cause new wars in the future, but by replacing those conditions which led to the war - that is, imperialist conflicts and the armaments race.""" Lenin 1914: we won't refute Kautsky's arguments, because he offers none: """We have purposely quoted from the original because it is hard to believe that such things could have been written. It is hard to find in literature (except in that coming from downright renegades) such smug vulgarity, such shameful departure from the truth, such unsavoury subterfuge to cover up the most patent renunciation both of socialism in general and of precise international decisions unanimously adopted (as, for instance, in Stuttgart and particularly in Basic) precisely in view of the possibility of a European war just like the present! It would be disrespectful towards the reader were we to treat Kautsky’s arguments in earnest and try to analyse them: if the European war differs in many respects from a simple “little” anti-Jewish pogrom, the “socialist” arguments in favour of participation in such a war fully resimhle the “democratic” arguments in favour of participation in an anti-Jewish pogrom. One does not analyse arguments in favour of a pogrom; one only points them out so as to put their authors to shame in the sight of all class-conscious workers.""" Lenin 1914: Kautsky has sunk "to something that is worse than being a renegade", because he is "politically bankrupt", and "vacillates" between positions: """But how could it have come to pass, the reader will ask, that the leading authority in the Second International, a writer who once defended the views quoted at the beginning of this article, has sunk to something that is worse than being a renegade? That will not be understood, we answer, only by those who, perhaps unconsciously, consider that nothing out of the ordinary has happened, and that it is not difficult to “forgive and forget”, etc., i.e., by those who regard the matter from the renegade’s point of view. Those, however, who have earnestly and sincerely professed socialist convictions and have held the views set forth in the beginning of this article will not be surprised to learn that “Vorwarts is dead” (Martov’s expression in the Paris Gobs) and that Kautsky is “dead”. The political bankruptcy of individuals is not a rarity at turning points in history. Despite the tremendous services he has rendered, Kautsky has never been among those who, at great crises, immediately take a militant Marxist stand (recall his vacillations on the issue of Millerandism[2]).""" #####c ##### # the bolshevik revolution: kautsky and lenin #####o # todo reread xxx Goode 1983: background to The Dictatorship of the Proletariat against The Proletarian Revolution and the Renegade Kautsky: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017683799225667635/unknown.png """Kautsky was sacked as editor of Die Neue Zeit in August 1917, and the post was given to the right-winger, H. Cunow. This may explain why his initial reaction to the October Revolution is difficult to gauge. Almost a year went by before he expressed his condemnation. In an article in Sozialistische Auslandspolitik (August 1918), he called on the Social Democratic parties to fight the Bolsheviks. When Lenin read this article, he was, Bonch-Bruyevich recalls, 'literally burning with anger . .. sitting up every day till late at night writing this remarkably hard-hitting work'3 - a reference to Lenin's merciless attack on Kautsky in The Proletarian Revolution and the Renegade Kautsky.""" #####c ##### # 21st century: leftist internationalism #####o # summary The United Nations is good. It would be gooder if it were stronger. # todo reread Rana 2022: "Left Internationalism in the Heart of Empire" Ganz 2022: "The ‘Polish Question’ and the Left The Foreign Policy of Marx and Engels": Ayoub 2022: "On Ukraine-Syria solidarity and the ‘anti-imperialism of idiots’": Bilous 2022: "A letter to the Western Left from Kyiv The ‘anti-imperialism of idiots’ meant people turned a blind eye to Russia’s actions": Al Shami 2018: "The ‘anti-imperialism’ of idiots" Ayoub 2018: "Rohini Hensman Analyzes the new "Second Camp Anti-Imperialism"" #####c #####c ##### # # market socialism # #####o ##### # market socialism: marx was opposed #####o # why marx was wrong Roosevelt 1993: criticism of Marx's rejection of market socialism: Marx failed to outline an effective method of planning, leaving him no ground to critique markets: """Perhaps the most general criticism that has been levelled against Marx is that he seems not to have paid attention to the fact that there are only two known ways, broadly speaking, in which the economic activities of any society can be organized and coordinated -- these being, on the one hand, the market and, on the other, some form of political process (i.e., planning of one kind or another). Before one recommends the elimination of one of these options, one should be reasonably certain that the other one will work (i.e., will accomplish the objectives one has in mind). That Marx did not engage in this necessary thought process may be seen in a well-known passage in The German Ideology, in which he and Engels criticized the capitalist division of labour and contrasted it with their view of the way economic life would be organized in communist society:""" # marx on market socialism proper: strongly opposed Marx 1875: marx claims that socialism cannot include product exchange for profit: """Within the co-operative society based on common ownership of the means of production, the producers do not exchange their products; just as little does the labor employed on the products appear here as the value of these products, as a material quality possessed by them, since now, in contrast to capitalist society, individual labor no longer exists in an indirect fashion but directly as a component part of total labor. The phrase "proceeds of labor", objectionable also today on account of its ambiguity, thus loses all meaning.""" # marx quotes on capitalism and growth Marx 1848: capitalism has produced more economic growth than all previous economic systems combined: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/863919870126456842/unknown.png """**The bourgeoisie, during its rule of scarce one hundred years, has created more massive and more colossal productive forces than have all preceding generations together.** Subjection of Nature’s forces to man, machinery, application of chemistry to industry and agriculture, steam-navigation, railways, electric telegraphs, clearing of whole continents for cultivation, canalisation of rivers, whole populations conjured out of the ground — what earlier century had even a presentiment that such productive forces slumbered in the lap of social labour?""" #####c ##### # cooperatives: marx not opposed, doesn't solve capitalism #####o # marx quotes on nature of competition: capitalists not evil, laws can force good behavior Marx 1867: marx claims capitalists can be good people but will be forced by competition into exploitation (eg, child labor) unless society forces them not to: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/874921327411200020/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/874921341495676949/unknown.png """Hence Capital is reckless of the health or length of life of the labourer, unless under compulsion from society. But looking at things as a whole, all this does not, indeed, depend on the good or ill will of the individual capitalist. Free competition brings out the inherent laws of capitalist production, in the shape of external coercive laws having power over every individual capitalist.""" """We, therefore, find, e.g., that in the beginning of 1863, 26 firms owning extensive potteries in Staffordshire, amongst others, Josiah Wedgwood, & Sons, petition in a memorial for “some legislative enactment.” Competition with other capitalists permits them no voluntary limitation of working-time for children, &c. “Much as we deplore the evils before mentioned, it would not be possible to prevent them by any scheme of agreement between the manufacturers. ... Taking all these points into consideration, we have come to the conviction that some legislative enactment is wanted.”""" # marx quotes on origin of worker-manager antagonism Marx 1894: managers work to exploit the labor of others: """To say that this labour is necessary as capitalistic labour, or as a function of the capitalist, only means that the vulgus is unable to conceive the forms developed in the lap of capitalist production, separate and free from their antithetical capitalist character. **The industrial capitalist is a worker, compared to the money-capitalist, but a worker in the sense of capitalist, i.e., an exploiter of the labour of others.**""" # marx quotes on alienation in cooperatives Marx 1894: in cooperatives, management is not antagonistic to labor because all share the profits (not just the capitalist manager): """The wages of management both for the commercial and industrial manager are completely isolated from the profits of enterprise in the co-operative factories of labourers, as well as in capitalist stock companies. The separation of wages of management from profits of enterprise, purely accidental at other times, is here constant. **In a co-operative factory the antagonistic nature of the labour of supervision disappears, because the manager is paid by the labourers instead of representing capital counterposed to them.**""" Marx 1894: supervision of labor by management is necessary under every mode of production (slave, feudal, capitalist), but management is only antagonistic to labor when their goals are antagonistic: """On the one hand, **all labour in which many individuals co-operate necessarily requires a commanding will to co-ordinate and unify the process**, and functions which apply not to partial operations but to the total activity of the workshop, much as that of an orchestra conductor. This is a productive job, which must be performed in every combined mode of production. On the other hand — quite apart from any commercial department — **this supervision work necessarily arises in all modes of production based on the antithesis between the labourer, as the direct producer, and the owner of the means of production**. The greater this antagonism, the greater the role played by supervision. Hence it reaches its peak in the slave system.""" #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # immigration # # #####o ##### # # scope of immigration # #####o ##### # immigration to the usa #####o # scope of immigration in the usa mass migration is a meme in the USA: as a proportion of population, the US has had far higher immigration rates than it currently does: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/746374531291152384/US_Immigration_versus_Population_1830_2020.png mass immigration is a meme in the USA: as a proportion of population, the US has had higher non-native residents than it currently does: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/746380946877579285/unknown.png # scope of illegal immigration the usa bad article asserting the USA has 22 million illegal immigrants (instead of the usual 11 million): ^ debunking article demonstrating the same methodology could assert the USA has 8.5 million illegal immigrants: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571057533846945819/image.png #####c ##### # immigration to europe #####o # scope of immigration in europe immigrant share over time in europe: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/535541835888721933/unknown.png #####c ##### # immigration internationally #####o # why don't africans move to africa: they do the vast majority of international migration is intra-continent (lots of Africans move to other African countries, etc.): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/680194153719791695/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/680194164738097159/unknown.png # why don't whites move to africa: they do fifteen percent of Ghanian immigrants come from Europe: The IMO report showed also that not every immigrant to Ghana comes from a neighboring state. Fifteen percent come from Europe, like Torbjörn “Toby” Bergman. #####c #####c ##### # # economics and immigration # #####o ##### # employment rate / wages and immigration #####o # employment + wages a consensus study by the National Academies finds that immigration to the US increases economic growth and doesn't reduce wages: # employment and wages: meta-analysis Longhi Nijkamp Poot 2010: a meta-analysis of seven immigration studies finds that almost no effect on native wages or native employment; a 10pp increase of the immigrant share of a labor market yields a decrease of wages by 0.2%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/495039000365760525/unknown.png """We find small wage and employment impacts, even smaller than have been detected in previous metaanalytic research. A 1% point increase in the share of immigrants in a local labour market of the typical host country decreases wages of the native born by 0.029% (using a weighted average with weights determined by the precision of the estimates) and decreases employment of the native born by 0.011%.""" three other meta-studies in here: "Survey papers" xxx todo # employment and wages: single studies immigration to the US slightly increases wages for natives, slightly decreases wages for low-education natives, and significantly decreases wages for immigrants: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/495037831949975553/m_jeea0152-08.png In the long run, these estimates imply an overall average positive effect of immigration on native wages of about 0.6% and an overall average negative effect on the wages of previous immigrants of about −6%. [....] All in all, one finding seems robust: once imperfect substitutability between natives and immigrants is allowed for, over the period 1990–2006 immigration to the United States had at most a modest negative long-run effect on the real wages of the least educated natives. This effect is between −2.1% and +1.7% depending on the chosen nesting structure, with the positive results coming from the nesting structure preferred by the data. Our finding at the national level of a small wage effect of immigration on less-educated natives is in line with the findings identified at the city level. immigration is a net positive for the economy, but unequally benefits the high-skilled: The wage effects are sizeable but plausible: a 10 percent increase in the number of low-skilled immigrants in a city reduces the wages of low-skilled natives by 0.6 percent and of low-skilled immigrants by 8 percent (an own-labor demand elasticity of -1.2). My results imply that the low-skilled immigration wave of the 1990s increased the purchasing power of high-skilled workers living in the 25 largest cities by an average of 0.65 percent and decreased the purchasing power of native high school dropouts by an average of 2.66 percent. I conclude that, through lower prices, low-skilled immigration brings positive net benefits to the US economy as a whole, but generates a redistribution of wealth: it reduces the real income of low-skilled natives and increases the real income of high-skilled natives. # employment rate of refugees after 20 years, European refugee employment rate is identical to native employment rate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/591646283865784340/unknown.png #####c ##### # economic growth and immigration #####o # productivity growth states with more foreign-born workers experience faster TFP (productivity) growth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/498666483212091392/unknown.png H1B visas increase sales, employment, and profits for US firms: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/491854904613142549/unknown.png # proportion of economic growth going to immigrants vs natives even immigration skeptic George Borjas admits that immigrants are net contributors: """Of the $1.6 trillion increase in GDP, 97.8 percent goes to the immigrants themselves in the form of wages and benefits; the remainder constitutes the "immigration surplus" — the benefit accruing to the native-born population, including both workers, owners of firms, and other users of the services provided by immigrants.""" # innovation growth New American Economy 2013: 76 percent of patents from top 10 patent-producing universities had 1 or more foreign-born author: """• More than three out of every four patents at the top 10 patent-producing US universities (76%) had at least one foreign-born inventor. • More than half of the patents (54%) were awarded to the group of foreign-born inventors most likely to face visa hurdles: students, postdoctoral fellows, or staff researchers.""" H1B visas increase innovation rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/491847615735005185/unknown.png Hunt 2008: immigrants produce patents at double the rate as natives, and the presence of these immigrants generates positive spillovers on patenting by natives: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/498664385829404693/unknown.png # brain drain appears not to be real outmigration (highly circular) from Nepal increased education and employment among nonmigrant Nepalese: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/569040368444899328/unknown.png Starting in 1993, recruits were required to have completed at least eight years of education and written tests in mathematics and English became part of the selection process. In 1997, the minimum education requirement was increased to 10 years. [....] Third, because recruits must be between 17 1/2 and 21 years old, men who were 22 or older in 1993 were not affected by the change. These older men are referred to as the ineligible cohort and the younger ones are referred to as the eligible cohort. #####c ##### # labor mobility is labor power #####o # historical natural experiment: iceland Nakamura Sigurdsson Steinsson: a lava eruption in 1973 on an island in Iceland may have caused small but significant income gains among those who were forced to move; suggests that migration frictions left some people some people stuck in place: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985299911442571294/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985300106112811088/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/985300193769558036/unknown.png # student debt relief as labor mobility # todo reread ^ Abramitzky and Boustan 2022: book expanding on the concept: Abramitzky Boustan Eriksson 2012: Abramitzky Boustan Eriksson 2014: #####c ##### # housing prices and immigration #####o # rent/housing immigration does increase rent -- but real GDP per capita does so even more strongly: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/497977195029987339/unknown.png immigration does increase housing prices: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/497978044406038530/unknown.png immigration does increase housing prices and rent: 1% per 1% increase in city population: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009411900600074X [xxx reread] #####c ##### # fiscal impacts of immigration #####o # welfare use by immigrants immigrants are not much more likely to use welfare: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640935737373753354/all_0.png # tax payments of illegal immigrants illegal immigrants paid $11.7bn in state and local taxes in 2014: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566247990876962827/Undocumented_immigrant_tax_contributions2.png about half of illegal immigrants pay taxes, and they pay at rates close to what they would pay if they were legal: Undocumented immigrants currently contribute significantly to state and local taxes, collectively paying an estimated $10.6 billion in 2010 with contributions ranging from less than $2 million in Montana to more than $2.2 billion in California. This means these families are likely paying about 6.4 percent on average of their income in state and local taxes. Allowing undocumented immigrants to work in the United States legally would increase their state and local tax contributions by an estimated $2 billion a year. Their effective state and local tax rate would also increase to 7 percent on average, which would put their tax contributions more in line with documented taxpayers with similar incomes. people without social security numbers paid $23.6bn in income taxes in 2015: #####c #####c ##### # # crime and immigration # #####o ##### # crime and immigration in the modern usa #####o # american legal immigrants: lower crime: legal only Bersani 2013: in the NLSY97 from 1998-2005 first-generation immigrant crime is lower than native crime and rises to the native mean in the second generation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640936043016880148/FT_13.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/975604614537830470/unknown.png legal immigrants to the USA have lower institutionalization rates (ie, prison) than natives https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640935904072171531/unknown.png # american legal immigrants: lower crime: refugee New American Economy 2017: in several major recipient cities, refugees have lower crime rates than natives: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640936060125446154/crimerate-fb3.png # american illegal: lower crime Nowrasteh 2018: illegal immigrants to the USA have lower rates of conviction for homicide, sexual assault, and larceny than natives https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/491844230969557002/XATRA3VTXI7VZL2PBK7ZCDLNEA.png Light and Miller 2018: areas with higher numbers of illegal immigrants have lower rates of violent crime (homicide, robbery, aggravated assault, rape): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/491845538212347904/crim12175-fig-0003-m.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1024114796574023750/unknown.png # breakdown by race (they always pivot to race lmao) Landgrave and Nowrasteh 2018: immigrants (both legal and illegal) have lower crime rates than natives in each racial category: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/501145572233838613/unknown.png ACS 2010: every race of immigrant has lower incarceration rates than white non-Hispanic natives: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/418854445917667331/unknown.png # bad alternative hypothesis "study" claim: 232,541 is simply not in this pdf: #####c ##### # crime and immigration in britain #####o # acid attacks BBC 2017: acid attacks are mostly conducted by European and African Caribbean people, not Asian or Arabian people; in contrast, Asian people are often the victims of acid hate attacks: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641984412090761246/3e9c0f90-1e75-409c-9f64-279aca9bc743.png # child sexual abuse UK gov't 2011: the population of England and Wales in 2011 was 86.0% white, 8.7% Asian, 3.3% black, 2.2% mixed-race, and 1.0% other: UK gov't 2011: among those found guilty of sexual activity with a minor in England and Wales in 2011, 85% were white, 3% black, 4% Asian, and the rest (8%) listed as "other" or unknown: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470009970369232898/unknown.png #####c ##### # crime and immigration in germany #####o # overall crime rate over time Germany is at its lowest crimerate since 1992: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640936471842390016/43695764_401.png murder down 1.6% and violent crime down 2.4% ^ data source: in 2015, refugee crime in Germany increased by just 79% while the number of refugees increased 440%: # controlling for age accounting for age, migrants in Germany had similar suspect rates as Germans: """If one would attribute the increase in crime that was observed in 2015 entirely to the refugees that entered Germany in this year, this would lead to a rate of suspects per 100.00 (Tatverdächtigenbelastungszahl, TVBZ) of 5800 for this group of refugees. This rate for Germans was 2124. Hence, the rate for refugees would be considerably higher than the rate for the Germans. But if we take a closer look at the rate of Germans aged between 16 and 30 (which is the age group most closely to that of refugees), one comes to another conclusion. Here, the rate for Germans ranges between 4200 and 5800, so absolutely in the range that is calculated (though inadequately) when observing refugees only. If we apply these numbers to those offenses that seem to matter most to the public (such as burglaries and sexual assaults), then the increase of non-German suspects (and especially of refugees) is considerably lower than one would initially have expected.""" police documents reveal that refugees commit less crime than Germans: # rapefugees website websites like Rapefugees include substantial fake cases: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/730145420923371530/e3b7bb37-0001-0004-0000-000001238971_w1500_r1.png #####c ##### # crime and immigration in sweden #####o # scope of crime committed by asylum seekers in 2015, 1% of police reports are attributed to asylum seekers and 1.8% of the Swedish population were asylum seekers If asylum-seekers are particularly crime-prone, then we would expect to see crime rates in which they are overrepresented relative to how many are living in Sweden. Sweden hosted approximately 180,000 asylum-seekers during this period and the population of Sweden is approximately 10 million. Therefore, asylum-seekers make up approximately 1.8% of the people living in Sweden, while 1% of the police reports filed in STORM were attributed to asylum-seekers. # rape: police report data according to police reports data in Sweden, the rape rate hasn't significantly changed between 2008 and 2015 (the rape law was reformed in 2005): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640936603195539466/Screen-Shot-2017-04-05-at-5.png according to police reports data in Sweden, the rate of rape has only slightly increased since 2015 (the rape law was reformed in 2005): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/567774881043841081/unknown.png # rape: convictions data the number of convictions for rape has been basically flat since 2005: The number of convictions has remained relatively unchanged since 2005, with approximately 190 convictions on average each year.[9][10] The total number of convictions for rape and aggravated rape in Sweden 2015 was 176. # sexual assault Sweden changed its definition of sexual assault in 2005 and in 2013 In Sweden, the legal definition of sexual assault is much broader than it is in the U.S. and even other European countries. While the rate of rape has remained steady in Sweden over the past decade, changes to the legal definition of sexual assault in 2005 and 2013 resulted in increases in reported sexual assault — because more acts now fall within the legal definition and are therefore officially counted. Thus, the standard of accountability has increased. 2005 reform: After, sex with a person in a "helpless state" (e.g. intoxicated, asleep) was sexual assault: 2013 reform: Previously, sex with a person in "helpless state" was sexual assault; after, a person in a "particularly vulnerable situation" was sexual assault. # don't cite the swedish crime survey commonly cited source (Swedish Crime Survey, not police report data): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/567778368716668943/unknown.png why not to use SCS (NTU) data: Many people responded to our articles by citing data from the National Crime Survey (NTU) on an increase from 1% to 1.7% in sexual assault. In doing so, they misunderstood the important distinction between sexual offense and rape. While the NTU survey includes a question about rape, it has not released the raw data or discussed the findings. There are two likely reasons for this. First, there are so few cases of rape in the survey data that they cannot confidently make estimates about its occurrence in the population. Second, the authors of the report believe that respondents’ perceptions may not be accurate reflections of the legal distinctions between various categories of sex offenses. While the NTU is not confident in making precise estimates of the occurrence of rape, it does believe the data are sufficient to conclude that the rate of rape and other forms of coercive sexual offenses (“sexuellt tvång”) is higher than data from the police reports indicate. This means that there is underreporting by victims. Unfortunately, we cannot estimate how the probability of a victim reporting a sexual offense event has changed from year to year, and this affects our ability to draw conclusions about trends in the rape data. #####c #####c ##### # # white nationalist talking points about immigration # #####o ##### # early immigration laws in the usa and "posterity" or "progeny" #####o # demographic makeup of the usa in 1790: mostly Brits, mostly Protestants in 1790, the US white population was 85.6% British (59.7% English, 4.3% Welsh, 10.5% Scotch-Irish, 5.3% Scottish, 5.8% Irish), 8.9% German, 3.1% Dutch, 2.1% French, and .3% Swedish: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636904410261487636/unknown.png Mark Noll asserts that, in 1789, just ~35,000 (~0.89% of 3,929,214) of the US population were Catholic: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636906733981138944/unknown.png Richard Middleton asserts that, in 1776, just ~40,000 (~1.6% of ~2,5000,000) of the US population were Catholic: # us naturalization laws over time 1790: naturalization allowed to any "free white person" of "good character" who has resided in the USA for 2 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636536983853989898/unknown.png 1795: naturalization allowed to any "free white person" of "good moral character" who has resided in the USA for 5 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636538594080587806/unknown.png 1798: naturalization allowed to any "free white person" of "good moral character" who has resided in the USA for 14 years: 1802: naturalization allowed to any "free white person" of "good moral character" who has resided in the USA for 5 years: 1870: naturalizaton allowed to any person of "good moral character" who has resided in the USA for 5 years: # inclusivist founder quotes about "posterity" John Adams: immigrants must "shed their European skin" (ie, preference for privilegia) for American equal rights: Emigrants from Germany, therefore, or from elsewhere, coming here, are not to expect favors from the governments. They are to expect, if they choose to become citizens, equal rights with those of the natives of the country. They are to expect, if affluent, to possess the means of making their property productive, with moderation, and with safety;—if indigent, but industrious, honest and frugal, the means of obtaining easy and comfortable subsistence for themselves and their families. [....] To one thing they must make up their minds, or, they will be disappointed in every expectation of happiness as Americans. They must cast off the European skin, never to resume it. They must look forward to their posterity, rather than backward to their ancestors; they must be sure that whatever their own feelings may be, those of their children will cling to the prejudices of this country, and will partake of that proud spirit, not unmingled with disdain, which you have observed is remarkable in the general character of this people, and as perhaps belonging peculiarly to those of German descent, born in this country. George Washington: the USA should be an "asylum to the virtuous and persecuted": I had always hoped that this land might become a safe & agreeable Asylum to the virtuous & persecuted part of mankind, to whatever nation they might belong; but I shall be the more particularly happy, if this Country can be, by any means, useful to the Patriots of Holland, with whose situation I am peculiarly touched, and of whose public virtue I entertain a great opinion. # exclusivist founder quotes about "posterity" Benjamin Franklin: Anglo-Saxons are white, "Spaniards, Italians, French, Russians", "Swedes", and "Germans" are "tawny" and should not be "increased in number": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/955635117269860372/unknown.png Which leads me to add one Remark: That the Number of purely white People in the World is proportionably very small. All Africa is black or tawny. Asia chiefly tawny. America (exclusive of the new Comers) wholly so. And in Europe, the Spaniards, Italians, French, Russians and Swedes, are generally of what we call a swarthy Complexion; as are the Germans also, the Saxons only excepted, who with the English, make the principal Body of White People on the Face of the Earth. I could wish their Numbers were increased. And while we are, as I may call it, Scouring our Planet, by clearing America of Woods, and so making this Side of our Globe reflect a brighter Light to the Eyes of Inhabitants in Mars or Venus, why should we in the Sight of Superior Beings, darken its People? why increase the Sons of Africa, by Planting them in America, where we have so fair an Opportunity, by excluding all Blacks and Tawneys, of increasing the lovely White and Red? But perhaps I am partial to the Compexion of my Country, for such Kind of Partiality is natural to Mankind. John Jay: the USA should erect "a wall of brass around the country for the exclusion of Catholics". #####c ##### # hart-celler act of 1965 #####o # popular support for the act in opinion polls 74% of Democrats and 85% of Republicans supported the Hart-Celler act: Harris, 1965: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636921253722325012/unknown.png Gallup, 1965: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636921383082786877/unknown.png #####c ##### # immigration and white genocide (or: what is the "demographic transition"?) #####o # anglo-saxon ruling class in the usa: historical counterexample Brandt 1985: Anglo-Saxons including Theodore Roosevelt thought they were being genocided in the 1900's by importing Southern and Eastern European "degenerate racial stock": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/955637368352813057/unknown.png # demographic transition following the demographic transition hypothesis, total fertility rates have dropped enormously worldwide: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643211545718947861/World-population-by-level-of-fertility-without-projections-750x525.png increased education spending and increased GDP per capita are strong, negative predictors of birth rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471525154338373653/unknown.png # projections of fertility worldwide total fertility rates (TFR, lifetime children per woman) are projected to drop in every country to 5 or less by 2050, 3.5 or less by 2075, and 2.5 or less by 2100 (World Population Prospects 2019): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643208250505822258/tfr.webm # projections of fertility in the usa immigrant and nonwhite birth rates are projected to regress to the mean of 1.9 total fertility rate (TFR, lifetime children per woman) by 2060: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640936735131303946/9-26-2015-1-30-23-PM.png #####c ##### # south african white genocide #####o # statistics: overall farm murders have never been lower than now, according to the South African Police Service (this number includes all murders of all people (owners, workers, visitors, family) on all farms, including smallholdings (but not nonfarming smallholdings)); note the gap of 2007-2009: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/574722108915974185/unknown.png SA has 35000 commercial farm owners, 10300 family members of commercial farm owners, 771000 commercial farm employees, and 4000000 smallholding farm owners: The number of "farm murders" is 47; this includes smallholders. Using different definitions of "farmer" results in wildly different murder rates. Including just commercial farm owners, we get 134 murders per 100000. Including family, 103 per 100000. Including workers, 5.75 per 100000. Including smallholders, 0.975 per 100000. SA's murder rate is 34 per 100000 alternately, AfricaCheck argues that statistic calculation is impossible: Previously, Burger used Statistics South Africa’s 2007 census of commercial agriculture’s estimate of 32,375 full-time farmers to indicate the murder rate of farmers. This was how he calculated that there were 133 farm murders per 100,000 farmers, using the Transvaal Agricultural Union of South Africa’s estimate of 39 farmers murdered in 2012. Chris van Zyl, the union’s assistant general, told Africa Check that the recorded murders included farmers on non-commercial farms and agricultural smallholdings. Burger excluded family members, workers and visitors from the calculation. However, the 2007 figure of 32,375 full-time farmers is not appropriate to use, as the survey was only conducted on commercial farms registered to pay value-added tax (VAT). [....] The survey also estimated that there were an additional 10,272 family members involved in farming activities, 4,923 owners in partnership directly involved in farming activities and 770,933 paid employees. Including the full-time farmers, this added up to 818,503. If this farming population is used, the farm murder rate for 2015/16 would be 5.6 murders per 100,000 people living and/or working on farms registered to pay value-added tax. However, the total population of people living on farms and smallholdings, which do not pay value-added tax, will be larger. # statistics: race the Boer-dominated Transvaal Agricultural Union's data on farm murders shows a very variable white farm murder count, making trend analysis difficult: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/574720347585380362/unknown.png according to the South African Police Service, 74% of farm murders were white and 83% were farm owners: In 2017/18, the police recorded 62 murders during 58 attacks. Of those murdered, 52 were the owners or occupiers of the farm/smallholding, 9 were farm workers and one was a farm manager. Forty-two murders took place on farms, 15 on smallholdings and one at a cattle post. The majority of the murder victims (46) were white. # statistics: reliability reliability (or lack thereof) of the statistics: Dr de Kock told Fact Check that the police's farm murder count was reliable. But he said the "biggest problem" with the data was that police stations do not specifically record hate-based murders or "farm murders". "So a murder, wherever that murder happens, whatever the motive for that murder, will just be registered as a murder." Dr de Kock also pointed out that more than half of farm attacks or murders take place on "small holdings", usually plots of one or two hectares on the edge of towns and cities. "In many cases people don't actually farm on those," he said, explaining that while some people might farm on a small scale, "strictly speaking [they're] no commercial farmer". Dr Burger said the lack of regular government statistics on farm attacks and murders makes it "extremely difficult to accurately define the extent of the problem". But he also said the union works hard to ensure the credibility of its data, which he relies on himself. And according to Dr Burger, murder statistics reported by different groups tended to be similar. # no evidence that farm attacks are motivated by race 2003 South African Human Rights Commission conclusion: 2008 South African Human Rights Commission conclusion: 2015 South African Human Rights Commission conclusion: The Commission unequivocally states that the causes for 'farm attacks and murders' is not race. The statemetn is made bearing in mind all research conducted in previous hearings and governmetn commissions of inquiries. Racial tensions have been present in South Africa for many decades and continue to be the case in democratic South Africa. [.....] Safety and security challenges persist in farming communities. Violence in farming communities is not based on the ground of race but reflects a reality where issues of racial segregation, land tenure, and economic [dis]empowerment provide the context for considering the root causes of crime which occur in farming communities. In addition, the Commission notes that the term "farm attacks and/or murder" i[s] inappropriate. # genocide watch is not credible Genocide Watch has no formal methodology for its claims: # eff polls very poorly the EFF has done poorly in opinion polling: # eff was condemned by anc the EFF has been condemned by the ANC: #####c ##### # # US border policy # #####o ##### # todo #####o https://www.aclu.org/news/by/madhuri-grewal/ https://www.aclu.org/news/immigrants-rights/biden-can-end-the-mass-detention-of-immigrants/ https://www.womensrefugeecommission.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/The-Family-Case-Management-Program.pdf ##### # history #####o # background: eisenhower 1954 plan Herbert Brownell, Attorney General under Eisenhower, announced in 1954 (!) that only immigrants who posed a risk to national security, to public safety, or of fleeing their trial would be detained: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941877170517721158/unknown.png as a result, the number of people in immigration detention fell dramatically: in 1955, there were just four (!!) people in immigration detention seeking entry to the US: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941886289244987402/unknown.png the policy was so notable that in 1958 the Supreme Court claimed that "this policy [of non-detention] reflects the humane qualities of an enlightened civilization": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941887052297957406/unknown.png # background: start of modern mass detention Minian 2018: from 1954 to 1980, border crossers were routinely released on parole -- not detained! -- and expected to return to court for their immigration hearing; that changed in 1981, as a response to the Mariel Boatlift: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941887680625639475/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941888288900399164/unknown.png # background: scope of internment Kassie 2019: the system of deterrence via the pain of extended detention is uniquely modern: On an average day in 1980, just 3,000 people were in detainment. In 2019, over 50,000 were: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941879570796253195/ExlUKnxXIAMfnFD.png Serwer 2021: If anything, the fact that border crossings surged under Trump, during the draconian COVID restrictions, shows that "inflicting as much pain as possible on migrants to deter others from coming" does not work: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/852284917559590952/ExlSfA3XMAE_f5R.png # what's the alternative? When the US did a trial program very similar to this proposal it was extremely successful. That's because mass detention is not just inhumane, it's unnecessary! Even if we wanted to charge and try every person who crossed the border, very few would need to be detained for the months until their trial. Virtually all of those released from detention showed up to court: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/852284423999324210/ExlXtisXAAEUlal.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/852284435944308796/ExlX1XcWQAgooMV.png immigration detention on this scale is new and inhumane. It is illegally designed to punish immigrants -- as deterrence against other immigrants: http://web.archive.org/web/20210406183025im_/https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyT4zgVWYAQbiQl.jpg http://web.archive.org/web/20210406183023im_/https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyT44O0XMAEiAj_.jpg # worldwide comparison: biggest Kassie 2019: #####c ##### # purpose: punishment as deterrence #####o # inhumane purpose Grewal 2020: immigration detention on this scale is new and inhumane. It is illegally designed to punish immigrants -- as deterrence against immigration: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/981798829022150706/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/981798838195089408/unknown.png # ineffective outcomes Serwer 2021: if anything, the fact that border crossings surged under Trump, during the draconian COVID restrictions, shows that "inflicting as much pain as possible on migrants to deter others from coming" does not work: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/852284917559590952/ExlSfA3XMAE_f5R.png #####c ##### # problems #####o # private operators: vast majority Ryo et al 2018: in 2015, over 2/3 of detained migrants were held in privately-operated facilites -- known for having worse conditions and worse legal recourse: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941882179066159155/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941885375880765540/unknown.png # rural areas: vast majority Ryo et al 2018: in 2015, nearly 2/3 of detained migrants were held in facilites outside urban areas -- with much worse access to family and legal aid: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941884851227885619/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/941885375880765540/unknown.png #####c ##### # alternatives #####o # alternatives to detention: list ACLU 2019: # alternatives to detention: human rights benefits ACLU 2019: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/942998022873292860/unknown.png # alternatives to detention: efficacy ACLU 2014: in 2013, the sole ICE alternative to detention program was run by Behavioral Interventions, a for-profit private firm; BI reported a 99.6% rate of court attendance in its 40k non-detained docket and a cost of $.17 to $17 per day (10-1000x cheaper than detention, at $170/day): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/942996755992166421/unknown.png # the pilot alternative: family case management program (FCMP) ACLU 2019: When the US did a trial program very similar to this proposal it was extremely successful. That's because mass detention is not just inhumane, it's unnecessary! Even if we wanted to charge and try every person who crossed the border, very few would need to be detained for the months until their trial. Virtually all of those released from detention showed up to court: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/852284423999324210/ExlXtisXAAEUlal.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/852284435944308796/ExlX1XcWQAgooMV.png Obser 2019: #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # firearms # # #####o ##### # summary #####o # the problem CHGO = civilian household gun ownership [1] CHGO has many, large negative health outcomes: Higher suicide, higher homicide, higher accidents, associated economic costs [2] CHGO has few, small positive health outcomes: Individual hunting, individual target practice [3] CHGO has little impact on outcomes for democracy, freedom, worker power, and minority power # the solutions: consumer side [1] Short-term: Legalize most or all drugs, end poverty via welfare, shift justice system from retributive to rehabilitative: Reduce violent crime in general, reducing gun deaths [2] Short-term: Make gun licenses mandatory for new gun purchases, waiting periods mandatory: Significantly reduce suicide and homicide by delaying purchase, and overall gun levels by increasing difficulty of purchase (6 states: DC, CA, WA, IL, MA, NY) [3] Short-term: Make gun safes mandatory for new gun purchases: Enormously reduce household gun theft, which is the primary source of illegal guns [4] Short-term: Enact domestic violence restraining/protection order (DVRO or DVPO) gun relinquishment laws: Significantly reduce intimate partner homicide, the 2nd largest category of gun violence [5] Short-term: Enact extreme risk protection order (ERPO) gun relinquishment laws: Allows family members, police to petition a court that someone's firearms present a risk to themselves or others; Significantly reduce suicide, may reduce mass shootings [6] Short-term: Prohibit gun purchases among people under 21: 70% of murder occurs before offenders reach 30 years old; restricting guns from younger people may significantly reduce homicide [7] Long-term: Shift ownership entirely from CHGO to community armories: Maintain right to bear arms while reducing likelihood of theft, suicide, or homicide # the solutions: producer side [8] Short-term: Increase taxes on civilian gun factories and fund voluntary gun buybacks: Reduces gun levels and is easily worth it (guns cause $176bn/yr in damages) [9] Long-term: Prohibit commercial gun production: Requires less state coercion than seizing guns from houses and significantly reduces future gun supply # good existing law [0] Short-term: Enact serious crime gun relinquishment laws: Persons convicted of serious crimes (over 1y in prison) should be prohibited from gun ownership (49 states, Vermont does violent crime only) #####c ##### # scope of the effects of guns #####o # health harms: deaths CDC 2016: of the 2744248 American deaths, firearm suicides represent 1 in 120 (22938/2744248=0.836%), firearm homicides 1 in 190 (14415/2744248=0.525%), and other firearm injuries 1 in 2100 ((38658-22938-14415)/2744248=0.0476%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/541662744206901250/unknown.png CDC 2018: of the 2839205 American deaths, firearm suicides represent 1 in 116 (24432/2839205=0.861%), firearm homicides 1 in 203 (13958/2839205=0.492%), and other firearm injuries 1 in 2103 ((39740-24432-13958)/2839205=0.0475%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/894767309640577044/unknown.png # health harms: victims disproportionately live in poor, single-male areas Kim 2019: a 1-standard-deviation increase of % of people on cash welfare correlates with a 10% higher risk of firearm homicide; % of people in poverty ~25%; and % males living alone 12%; higher gun violence also correlated with lower social mobility: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811031735486644234/unknown.png # economic harms: overall (including indirect costs) Miller 2015: firearm injury costs are $174.1-229 billion per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640005047098540044/unknown.png """Miller’s calculation for indirect costs, based on jury awards, values the average “statistical life” harmed by gun violence at about $6.2 million.""" # economic harms: hospitalization (including indirect costs) Lee 2014: direct and indirect costs to victims of firearm injury hospitalization alone are $17.7 billion per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640004568201297920/unknown.png # economic harms: hospitalization (only direct) firearm injury hospitalization costs are $911 million per year: Of patients discharged following a firearm injury, 15.6% were readmitted within 6 months. The average annual cost of inpatient hospitalizations for firearm injury was over $911 million, 9.5% of which was due to readmissions. Medicare and Medicaid covered 45.2% of total costs for the 5 years, and uninsured patients were responsible for 20.1%. firearm injury hospitalization costs are $734.6 million per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640000491161518092/unknown.png # economic gains: overall (including indirect gains) firearm manufacture indirect economic activity is $51.4 billion per year (industry estimate): # economic gains: overall (only direct) firearm manufacture direct revenue is $16.8 billion per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639998491577286657/unknown.png #####c ##### # # more guns cause more death # #####o ##### # violent crime and homicide: increased by guns #####o # causal: right to carry increased violent crime Donohue et al 2019: relative to synthetic controls: right to carry laws caused a ~13% higher overall violent crime rates 10 years after adoption: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021168895475855360/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1076709464348049499/image.png “shall-issue” concealed carry laws # causal: concealed carry increased violent crime Siegel et al 2019: differences-in-differences: states that enacted {universal background checks} or {violent misdemeanor laws} saw homicide relatively go down, {shall-issue} go up: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/989579012420554782/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/989579101125902336/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/989582788598566972/unknown.png e^0.086=1.090x # causal: waiting periods reduced homicides and suicides Luca 2017: the 1994 Brady Act imposed a new handgun waiting period of 5 days in about 1/3 of states, which caused a decrease (in the Brady period, 1990-1998) of overall homicide by 14.5% and overall suicide by 3.6%; in the 1970-2014 period, waiting periods for handguns of 2-7 days correlated with reduced overall homicides by 13.2% and overall suicides by 7.0%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811257777506615346/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811257801920872458/unknown.png Tables 1 and 2 also show that waiting periods have no significant effect on non-gun homicides, suggesting that people subject to waiting period laws do not substitute other means of committing homicide. # correlation: international comparison Matthews 2017: the United States is uniquely lethal (from official homicide counts), but not uniquely violent (from surveys of self-reported victimization): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/943228635391877230/unknown.png # correlation: before and after Webster Crifasi Vernick 2014: before-after rate comparison (not DID, weak method): repeal of Missouri's permit to purchase law correlated with 16% more murder per person (0.93 per 100k per year): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/980577892025139260/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/980578033259909191/unknown.png Matzopoulos Thompson Myers 2014: gun control in South Africa correlated with homicide reductions in 5 South African cities by ~2.5% per year, saving ~4700 lives: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/980579389152559114/unknown.png controls: age, sex, race, day of week, city # pseudo-causal and very-high quality: multiple restrictive laws considered Schell et al 2020: Bayesian modelling: 7 years after implementing a right to carry law, firearm homicides increased by by ~2%, though this result is not significant: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/980605686381686884/unknown.png Schell et al 2020: Bayesian modelling: 7 years after implementing a Stand Your Ground law, firearm homicides increased by by ~5%, though this result is not significant: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/980605686381686884/unknown.png Schell et al 2020: Bayesian modelling: 7 years after implementing a child access prevention law, firearm homicides decreased by ~7%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/980605686381686884/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1076712271146926080/image.png # correlation: state laws Fleegler Lee Monteaux 2013: more laws on firearms are correlated with fewer firearms per capita and fewer firearm deaths per capita: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642157687894835261/unknown.png # correlation: state gun prevalence Siegel 2014: firearm prevalence 1981-2010 significantly positively correlates with firearm homicide and overall homicide, after controlling for age, gender, race, urbanity, education, poverty, unemployment, income, income inequality, alcohol consumption, property crime, violent crime, hate crime, divorce, suicide, and incarceration: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643170781735682058/unknown.png [W]e controlled for the following state-level factors that have been identified as related to homicide rates and might also be related to firearm ownership rates: proportion of young adults (aged 15---29 years), proportion of young men (aged 15---29 years), proportion of Blacks, proportion of Hispanics, level of urbanization, educational attainment, poverty status, unemployment, median household income, income inequality (the Gini ratio), per capita alcohol consumption, nonhomicide violent crime rate (aggravated assault, robbery, forcible rape), nonviolent (property) crime rate (burglary, larceny or theft, and motor vehicle theft), hate crime rate, divorce rate, region, incarceration rate, and suicide rate. firearm prevalence 2001-2002 and 2004 significantly positively correlates with overall homicide after controlling for year, household income, gender, race, age, education, urbanity, poverty, population density, region, and neighboring states: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/455623884570624001/unknown.png firearm prevalence 1981-2013 significantly positively correlates with firearm homicide and insignificantly with nonfirearm homicide (implying overall increase in homicide), after controlling for age, gender, race, region, urbanity, education, poverty, unemployment, household income, income inequality, alcohol consumption, nonviolent crime, hate crime, divorce, suicide, and incarceration: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643167286286614531/unknown.png Siegel et al. recently created an improved proxy measure for state-level firearm ownership, which increases the correlation with the survey-generated estimates of household firearm prevalence to 0.95 (Siegel et al. 2014b). [....] [W]e controlled for the following state-level factors: proportion of young adults (ages 15–29), proportion of the state population that is young males (ages 15–29), proportion of state population identifying as black or as Hispanic, region of the United States, level of urbanization, educational attainment, poverty status, unemployment, median household income, income inequality (the Gini ratio), per-capita alcohol consumption, nonviolent (property) crime rate, hate crime rate, divorce rate, suicide rate, and incarceration rate. # correlation: county gun prevalence firearm prevalence correlates with overall violent crime: The current analysis used suicide by firearm as a proxy for firearm ownership. Examining violent crime, homicide, rape, robbery, and assault for 1,997 counties in the United States, the findings indicate that increased prevalence of firearms was associated with increased violent crime, homicide, rape, robbery, and assault. The results of this study suggest that a decrease in prevalence of firearms has the potential to decrease violent crime in the United States.Control variables used: region (Northeast, South, Midwest, West), Beale codes (rural, urban-adjacent, urban), residential mobility, ethnic heterogeneity, female-headed households, poverty rate, unemployment rate, population at risk (youth) rate, population age, population density #####c ##### # mass shootings: increased by guns #####o # general gun policy Reeping et al 2019: higher gun ownership & looser gun laws correlate with higher mass shootings: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/990973972139098143/unknown.png """Mass shootings were defined as independent events in which four or more people were killed by a firearm. Data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform Crime Reporting System from 1998-2015 were used to calculate annual rates of mass shootings in each state. Mass shooting events and rates were further separated into those where the victims were immediate family members or partners (domestic) and those where the victims had other relationships with the perpetrator (non-domestic).""" ^ another table: higher gun ownership & looser gun laws correlate with higher mass shootings: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/670066417604755456/unknown.png # firearm type de Jager Goralnick McCarty 2018: higher fatalities and higher woundings occur in active shooter incidents with a semiautomatic rifle than those without: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640015658381475880/unknown.png # magazine type: correlational Klarevas 2019: controlling for demographics, bans on large-capacity magazines correlated with 0.21x as many high-fatality mass shootings (-3.660) in a given state: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867282862692630558/unknown.png high-fatality mass shooting: 6 or more deaths; LCM bans: more than 10 bullets in HI, MD, MS, CA, NY, DC, CN; 15 in NJ, CO, VT; "We focused on high-fatality mass shootings—the deadliest and most disturbing of such incidents—which are defined as intentional crimes of gun violence with 6 or more victims shot to death, not including the perpetrators." # red flag laws and extreme risk protection orders (erpos) Mukherjee 2020: the vast majority of mass shootings (141 of 167 shooters, 1077/1202 deaths, 1908/1962 injuries) were preceded by threats reported to police, suicide attempts, and other activities covered under red flag laws: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/874769711886368768/unknown.png Everytown 2023: RED FLAG LAWS REDUCE FIREARM SUICIDES. After Connecticut increased its enforcement of its Extreme Risk law,28 one study found the law to be associated with a 14 percent reduction in the state’s firearm suicide rate.29 While it is always hard to measure events that “didn’t happen,” an important study in Connecticut found that one suicide was averted for approximately every 11 gun removals carried out under the law.30 In the 10 years since Indiana passed its Extreme Risk law in 2005,31 the state’s firearm suicide rate decreased by 7.5 percent.32 Like Connecticut, another study estimated that Indiana’s Extreme Risk law averted one suicide for approximately every 10 gun removals.33 # perpetrator demographics Peterson and Densley 2019: the vast majority of mass shooters experienced early childhood trauma; almost all mass shooters had a crisis point in weeks/months before shooting (often communicated to others via specific threats or suicidal plans); most shooters studied other mass shooters; 80% of school shooters got weapons from family members: """One step needs to be depriving potential shooters of the means to carry out their plans. Potential shooting sites can be made less accessible with visible security measures such as metal detectors and police officers. And weapons need to be better controlled, through age restrictions, permit-to-purchase licensing, universal background checks, safe storage campaigns and red-flag laws — measures that help control firearm access for vulnerable individuals or people in crisis.""" #####c ##### # suicide: increased by guns #####o # theory: model of suicide Florentine 2010: most suicides fit a 5-step model (triggers → distress → ideation → attempt → success/failure); restricting physical access to methods of suicide can reduce suicide effectiveness: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/814577087125127188/unknown.png "Where possible, it would always be preferable to intervene at earlier stages, providing psychological and social support to reduce an individual’s suffering as well as their suicide risk." # causation: israel defense force Lubin 2010: the total suicide rate of 18-21 year old soldiers decreased 40% after Israel prohibited them from taking their firearms home on the weekends; this decrease was almost entirely on weekends: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867574371300540416/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867574037899509790/unknown.png n=117 suicides over 5 years """[M]any IDF soldiers go home over the weekend, and took their weapons with them. The IDF changed its policy in 2006, dictating that soldiers should leave their weapons at their bases when headed home for weekend leave. This policy change was just part of a suicide prevention program that also included dissemination of information regarding suicide prevention, and a declaration by the IDF chief of staff that suicide prevention was one of the major goals of the IDF for that year.""""""Following the change in policy total suicide rate decreased by 40%, from an average of 28 per year during 2003-2005 to an average of 16.5 per year in 2007-2008 (T= 3.35, p = .04). Most of this decrease in suicide rates was due to a decrease in suicide using firearms over the weekend, from an average of 10 per year (2003-2005) to an average of 3 per year (2007-2008) (T= 17.44, p<.001). There were no significant changes in rates of suicide during weekdays. # causation: permit to purchase laws Crifasi 2015: having a law requiring a permit to purchase (PTP) handguns in Missouri (repealed) and Connecticut (enacted) significantly decreased overall suicide: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811126428367323179/unknown.png """Connecticut's firearm suicide rates were 15.4% lower than that of its synthetic control during the 10-year post-law period. [....] Connecticut's non-firearm suicide rates, however, were 11.9% lower during the post-law period than predicted by the synthetic control.""" # correlation: meta-study Angelmeyer 2014: across 14 studies, having a firearm in the house was associated with a 3.24x increase of suicide risk and 2x increase of homicide risk: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/942653715242950797/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811628735983255642/unknown.png # correlation: mortality follow-back surveys Studdert et al 2020: among the 1,458,000 Californians who died in 2004-2016, males who newly purchased a handgun were 3.3x more likely to die from suicide and females 7.2x; among those who purchased a handgun, about 3 in 10,000 died from firearm suicide within 10 days after purchase and 3 in 1,000 within 12 years; among those who did not, just 3 in 10,000 died from firearm suicide within 12 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811261247567560745/nejmsa1916744_f1.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/989249076853874768/unknown.png Grassel 2003: among the 213,000 Californians who died in 1998, those who newly bought a handgun in 1996-98 were 6.8x more likely to die from suicide overall but not significantly more likely to die from non-gun suicide: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811374234135167063/unknown.png Dahlberg 2004: in a mortality followback survey, proxy respondents were 10.4x as likely to report that male suicide victims had had a firearm in the house: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811123079178092554/unknown.png 1993 National Mortality Followback Survey, which is based on a nationally representative 10 percent systematic sample of decedents aged 15 years or older in the United States """Persons with guns in the home were also more likely to have died from suicide committed with a firearm than from one committed by using a different method (adjusted odds ratio = 31.1, 95% confidence interval: 19.5, 49.6).""" # correlation: state gun prevalence Miller 2007: a 1% increase of firearm prevalence correlates with a 1.4% increase of overall suicide, controlling for poverty, urbanization, unemployment, mental illness, and drug and alcohol dependence and abuse: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643885297578278941/unknown.png # not causal link: guns don't appear to cause suicidality among 9282 US adults between 2001 and 2003, self-reported firearm ownership was not correlated with self-reported mental health, self-reported suicidal ideation, or self-reported serious suicide attempt: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/700009658609303673/unknown.png among 9282 US adults between 2001 and 2003, self-reported firearm ownership was not correlated with suicidal ideation or suicide planning: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/700014466263154692/unknown.png # method restriction: examples Clarke 1988: the near-total removal of carbon monoxide from British town gas (switching from coal gas to natural gas) corresponded with the near-total elimination of suicides by gassing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811640992339329164/unknown.png Florentine 2010: changing the packaging for paracetamol and limiting the amount purchasable appears to have cut paracetamol suicides by 64% with no substitution: """[P]rior to 1998, paracetamol had been implicated in up to half of intentional overdose attempts (Hawton et al., 1997). In 1998, legislation was introduced in the United Kingdom that required analgesics to be blister packaged and reduced pack sizes to non-lethal doses. Limits on the number of packs that could be bought in a single transaction were also enforced, the aim being to reduce household supplies of paracetamol which might be available for impulsive overdose. It is particularly interesting that this relatively simple intervention appeared to have a considerable impact on suicide rates, resulting in a 64% reduction of severe paracetamol overdoses and a 21% reduction of overall paracetamol overdoses (Turvill, Burroughs, & Moore, 2000). These changes persisted, with little evidence of substitution over three years following the restriction, resulting in the estimated prevention of approximately 200 deaths (Hawton, 2002).""" # suicide attempts: efficacy by method Spicer 2000: suicides by firearm are much more effective: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640008148450672656/CaseFatality7-1200x657.png The present study is, to our knowledge, the first multistate epidemiologic examination of pooled E-coded discharge data and vital statistics data. We integrated these data into a single epidemiologic analysis of nearly 65000 medically identified suicide attempts and 11000 suicides to compute annual incidence of suicide acts and case fatality rates in 8 states, by victim age, sex, and race and by method used. [....] Choice of method plays a role in the lethality of the suicide act. Firearm is the most lethal method and drug overdose/poison ingestion the least lethal. Soffen 2016: firearms are more fatal than other methods; if the US had comparable firearm prevalence as other countries, it would have 20-38% fewer suicides:: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643883153387159603/unknown.png # suicide attempts: high impulsivity Spicer 2000: just 8.8% of suicide attempts are fatal, and fatality increases with age: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640010298258096134/unknown.png Baca-Garcia 2001: most suicides are impulsive: among 478 people who attempted suicide in Madrid, 55% were impulsive (no preparation, no contemplation), 28% were intermediate (some preparation, some contemplation), and 17% were non-impulsive extensive preparation, 3+ hours of contemplation); higher lethality correlated with lower impulsivity: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867567157017837568/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867567392058376202/unknown.png """More than half of the attempts were impulsive (55%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 51% to 59%), approximately one fourth of the attempts had an intermediate level of impulsivity (28%; 95% CI, 24% to 32%), and approximately one sixth of the attempts were not impulsive (17%, 95% CI, 13% to 21%). There was an inverse association between the impulsivity and lethality of the suicide attempt (chi2 = 62.639, df = 6, p < .0001). The most impulsive attempts tended to result in less morbidity, while the less impulsive attempts tended to be more lethal.""" Simon 2001: 24% of survivors in central Houston reported taking less than 5 minutes between making the decision and carrying out the act: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/942644042943045672/unknown.png # suicide attempts: low repeat attempt rate Seiden 1978: few people who attempt suicide once end up dying from suicide: a very low rate (~6%) of those who attempted and failed to kill themselves by jumping off a bridge had killed themselves in the next 15 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/867569597599449088/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811124968830140436/unknown.png """Finally, in Table 13 we have the proportion of persons in each study group who subsequently committed suicide or died from other violent causes. What this table discloses is that after 26-plus years the vast majority of GGB [Golden Gate Bridge] suicide attempters (about 94%) are still alive or have died from natural causes. The comparison group of hospital cases has had similar experiences; 89% are still alive or are dead from natural means after 15 years. Conversely, only five to seven percent killed themselves and some six to 11% had died from all violent causes combined. Even if we compensate for underenumeration by doubling our frequencies it still means that about 90% of the study subjects were alive or had come to a natural non-violent end.""" #####c ##### # voluntary buyback: ineffective #####o # theory: increased production ineffective because firms just increase productions: Thus, any anticipated (repeated) buyback’s impact on future stock levels of firearms depends critically on the commit ability of the durable-goods manufacturer, independent of the buyers’ reselling and arbitrage activities. Moreover, regardless of commitment ability, the model suggests the imperfectly competitive firms may, at least partially, counteract the buyback program, making any governmental buyback less effective at reducing future firearm stocks than expected. # inefficacy ineffective: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/623715032714313729/unknown.png Despite the data and methodological improvements, the results of this study are largely consistent with extant empirical evidence showing little support for the effectiveness of gun buy-backs on violent crime. [....] The reduction that was found in gun robberies took several years to materialise. Thus, studies of a gun buy-back programme may require longer time frames before some level of success is achieved (Neill & Leigh, 2008). ineffective, except reduction of gun accidents: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/623718275909550080/unknown.png # australia buyback [unformatted, unread] Leigh study 1: http://andrewleigh.org/pdf/GunBuyback_Panel.pdf Leigh study 2: http://andrewleigh.org/pdf/GunBuyback.pdf only suicides: http://www.ausvarmint.com/files/glasd.pdf didn't work because strong laws were already in place: https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304720 #####c #####c ##### # # defensive use # #####o ##### # defensive gun use infrequent #####o # scope FBI 2015: there were 9616 firearm homicides [1], 268 justified firearm homicides by private citizens [2], and 441 justified firearm homicides by law enforcement officers [3]. This suggests that (441+268)/(9616) = 7.3% of firearm homicides are justified. [1] Homicides by weapon: [2] Justifiable homicides by private citizen: [3] Justifiable homicides by law enforcement: # surveys: frequency: very low Hemenway and Solnick 2015: defensive gun use (attacking or threatening criminal) is rare: DGU occurred in just 0.9% of crimes with a victim: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811335182433910834/unknown.png """Of over 14,000 incidents in which the victim was present, 127 (0.9%) involved a SDGU. SDGU was more common among males, in rural areas, away from home, against male offenders and against offenders with a gun.""" Hemenway and Solnick 2015: defensive gun use (attacking or threatening criminal) is weakly protective: DGU had no significant effect on victim injury rates (table 3c); DGU significantly reduced property loss relative to no defensive action, but not relative to other weapons or no weapon: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811336573794254876/unknown.png """After any protective action, 4.2% of victims were injured; after SDGU, 4.1% of victims were injured. In property crimes, 55.9% of victims who took protective action lost property, 38.5 of SDGU victims lost property, and 34.9% of victims who used a weapon other than a gun lost property.""" # response to Hemenway #1: "why trust reported numbers?" Hemenway and Solnick 2015's data comes from the National Crime Victimization Survey -- which asks crime victims what happened, and is *not* reported (police) data whatsoever: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1138655568903553024/Fwip_hsXwAMFabf.png # response to Hemenway #2: "what about surveys with 2.5 million usages?" Hemenway 1997: the Kleck data implies that guns were used for self-defense in 845,000 burglaries, but there were only 6,000,000 x 0.22 x 0.42 x 0.33 = 182,000 burglaries at which a gun could reasonably have been used: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1138656991166865469/image.png """All attempts at external validation of the 2.5 million figure show that it is an enormous overestimate (Hemenway, in press). For example, in 34% of the times a gun was used for self-defense, the offender was allegedly committing a burglary. In other words, guns were reportedly used by defenders for self-defense in approximately 845,000 burglaries. From sophisticated victimization surveys, however,we know that there were fewer than 6 million burglaries in the year of the survey and in only 22% of those cases was someone certainly at home (1.3 million burglaries). Since only 42% of U.S. households own firearms, and since the victims in two thirds of the occupied dwellings were asleep, the 2.5 million figure requires us to believe that burglary victims use their guns in self-defense more than 100% of the time. A more reasonable estimate of self-defense gun use during burglary comes from an analysis of Atlanta police department reports. Examining home invasion crimes during a four-month period, researchers identified 198 cases of unwanted entry into a single-family dwelling while someone was at home (Kellermann, Westphal, Fisher, and Harvard 1995). In 6 of these cases, an offender obtained the victim's gun. In only 3 cases (1.5%) was a victim able to use a firearm in self-defense.""" Moyer 2017: why to prefer the NCVS data (from Hemenway) or Kellerman data over the Kleck/CDC type data: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640018194525847555/62e0bdb13a7d8f2dcd5f9bd7226de82d12226ab6.png National Research Council report: explanation: Kleck's data is self-reported, which introduces strong upward bias: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/942810733454966794/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/942810862891188285/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/942811191850446858/unknown.png A National Research Council report said that Kleck's estimates appeared to be exaggerated and that it was almost certain that "some of what respondents designate[d] as their own self-defense would be construed as aggression by others".[201] # mortality followback: frequency: one city Kellerman 1986: among 398 gun deaths from 1978 to 1983 in King County (Seattle and Bellevue), 9 were self-protection (1x), 12 were unintentional deaths (1.3x), 41 were criminal homicides (4.6x), and 333 were suicides (37.0x): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/875168195890274314/unknown.png # correlation: homicide and suicide Dahlberg 2004: in a mortality followback survey, proxy respondents were 1.9x as likely to report that homicide victims had had a firearm in the house: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811123079178092554/unknown.png 1993 National Mortality Followback Survey, which is based on a nationally representative 10 percent systematic sample of decedents aged 15 years or older in the United States #####c ##### # domestic violence #####o # intimate partner homicide: framework: model Capaldi 2005: model of development of partner aggression: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/917963141822947358/unknown.png # intimate partner homicide: causational: policy Raissan 2015: differences-in-differences results suggest that Gun Control Act expansion to prevent domestic violence misdemeanor convicts from possessing a firearm (DVRO) decreased gun homicides among female intimate partners by 17.3% and domestic children by 24.5% and had no effect on non-gun homicides: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/875570270541332540/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/875823076070277200/unknown.png controls: """race, marital status, the state poverty rate, average household income, the AFDC/TANF maximum for a family of three (both in 1996 Dollars), the female to male employment ratio, the robbery crime rate, and other legal variables (described in text)""" # intimate partner homicide: causational: mortality followup Wintermute 2003: women who purchased a handgun in 1991 had a rate of intimate partner homicide 2.3x higher, overall homicide 1.5x higher, and non-partner homicide insignificantly higher than women as a whole in California: n1=11 deaths, n2=28181 handgun purchasers """Women who purchased handguns were at increased risk for intimate partner homicide (standardized mortality ratio [SMR]=2.30) but not for homicide involving other assailants (SMR=1.02), and they were at increased risk for homicide overall (SMR=1.45).""" Wintermute 1999: TODO: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/942639817735417866/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/942640314852704296/unknown.png # intimate partner homicide: correlation at victim level Smucker 2018: when IPH's occur with a gun, they are much more likely to end with the suicide of the murderer and with other, additional homicides: """Almost one-half of IPHs committed by men with guns ended with suicide. Male-perpetrated IPH incidents averaged 1.58 deaths if a gun was used, and 1.14 deaths otherwise.""" Campbell 2003: women whose abuser had access to a gun were 5.4x more likely to die from intimate partner homicide: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/821944612213096448/unknown.png Bailey 1997: women who kept 1 or more guns in the house were 4.6x more likely to die from suicide, 3.4x more likely to die from homicide, and 7.2x more likely to die from intimate partner or relative homicide: Having 1 or more guns in the home was independently associated with suicide (adjusted OR, 4.6; 95% CI, 1.2-17.5), even after the effects of depression and living alone were taken into consideration.""""""Five risk factors were retained in the final multivariate model for all homicides. Independent risk factors included [...] having 1 or more guns in the home (adjusted OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.6-7.1)[.]""""""Homicide by spouse, lover, or close relative was strongly associated [...] keeping 1 or more guns (adjusted OR, 7.2; 95% CI, 1.9-27.1).""" # intimate partner homicide: correlation at state level Diez 2017: correlational evidence suggests that intimate partner homicide is ~9.7% lower in states which have domestic violence restraining order (DVRO) related firearm surrender laws: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/821828770146287666/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643163766082633759/m162849tt2_table_2_results_of_final_model_for_law_prohibiting_firearm_possession_by_persons_subj.png Zeoli 2010: correlational evidence suggests that intimate partner homicide is ~19% lower in cities which have domestic violence restraining order (DVRO) related firearm purchase access laws in 46 cities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/821830845294968842/unknown.png firearm confiscation = "state laws allowing police officers to confiscate firearms from the scene of DV" Vigdor 2006: correlational evidence suggests that intimate partner homicide is ~10% lower in states which have domestic violence restraining order (DVRO) purchase or possession laws: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/822153399234986014/unknown.png Zeoli 2018 (corrected): between 1980 and 2013, domestic violence restraining order (DVRO) firearm-prohibition laws were associated with 10% reductions in intimate partner homicide (IPH) # intimate partner violence: meta-analysis Zeoli 2016: there is no compelling evidence that gun ownership correlates with higher nonfatal intimate partner violence (IPV): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/917980692313411645/62bfb31c-399e-42da-bf49-01bec66c93be.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/917980706754424862/9885e89f-fb0e-466f-895d-e33fecc8b04a.png Zeoli 2016: among abusive relationships, abusers with access to a gun were more likely to be more violent than abusers without access to a gun: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/917983262733893722/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # popularity and psychology # #####o ##### # pollings #####o # surveys: firearm owner demography of Americans, 30% are gunowners, 11% live in a household with a gunowner, and 57% do not: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640308574664261634/PSDT_2017.png # surveys: firearm control is popular Barry 2019: firearm control proposals are popular: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644234350375993345/unknown.png most firearm owners support most firearm control proposals: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470687715625533440/ajph.png firearm control proposals are popular; firearm-expansion proposals are not: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639994082051096576/PSDT_2017.png firearm control proposals are popular even among firearm owners: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640988461620264981/PSDT_2017.png #####c ##### # firearm ownership and psychology #####o # racism symbolic racism predicts firearm ownership: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639990209194360841/image.png In wave 20 of the ANES, participants were asked to respond to a four-item scale drawn from the Symbolic Racism Scale [37]. Specifically, participants indicated the extent to which they agree (1=agree strongly to 5=disagree strongly) with statements such as “Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for blacks to work their way out of the lower class” (reverse scored). Scores on the four items were coded so that high scores are indicative of elevated levels of symbolic racism. A test of the reliability of the scale showed the four items corresponded closely with each other as indicated by a Cronbach’s alpha level of 0.8 and the emergence of a single factor from exploratory factor analysis of the scale. We utilized the average score across the four items to produce a scale ranging 1=lowest symbolic racism score, to 5=highest symbolic racism score. higher opposition to gun regulations is predicted by higher symbolic racism, higher firearm ownership, higher libertarianism, lower egalitarianism, and lower income: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639991539585515530/unknown.png # fear conservatives feel greater personal control when imagining holding a firearm; liberals do not; conservatives feel that an armed civilian entering a public shooting makes the situation less chaotic, while liberals feel it makes it more chaotic: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639993126181666820/unknown.png # ideology firearm ownership increasingly predicts Republican vote: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/639991705566969877/unknown.png # intelligence dumb white people and dumb black people own guns: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/541669488362520594/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # protection from the state # #####o ##### # freedom #####o guns don't prevent tyranny or protect freedom: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/443894002995953664/unknown.png revolutions are actually more likely in states with lower firearm ownership (this is almost certainly spurious -- poorer places have fewer guns and more revolutions. i just post it to make right-wingers mad lol): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640988514602844166/Gun20Rates20Revolution20Final20Chart.png ^ cato study: unformatted, unread: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1090441 http://wwww.davekopel.org/2A/Foreign/Relationship-Guns-Freedom-59-Nations.pdf #####c ##### # police brutality #####o # correlational studies: laws and fatal shootings Kivisto 2017: looser gun control laws correlate with higher fatal police shootings (several controls): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811020066950873088/unknown.png controls: age; percentage of study population that was male, White, Black, Hispanic, unemployed, and college educated; and population density at the state level Kivisto 2017: after controls, gun control laws about child and consumer safety and against gun trafficking were correlated with lower fatal police shootings:: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811111392567361546/unknown.png Roman 2018: graph of the above: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/868953936764235776/Police_killing_state_laws_chart.png # correlational studies: prevalence and fatal police shootings Roman 2018: higher gun prevalence correlates with higher fatal police shootings (no controls): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811023891715194920/unknown.png Hemenway 2019: a 1-standard-deviation increase of gun prevalence correlates with 1.4-1.5x higher fatal police shooting rates per resident and 1.3-1.5x per arrest: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/811113613628145674/unknown.png gun prevalence proxied by firearm suicides as proportion of all suicides, or FS/S; controls for violent crime rate, racial composition, poverty rate, and urbanization #####c ##### # reducing gun theft #####o # stolen firearms based on surveys of firearm owners, ~460,000 firearms are stolen from individuals every year: Approximately 2.4 percent of gun owners (CI: 1.6–3.6) reported having had one or more stolen from them in the past five years, the mean number at 1.9 (a range of 1 to 6). Assuming that theft was evenly distributed across the years, we estimate that approximately 2.3 million guns were stolen over the past five years (five hundred thousand annually). Hemenway Azrael Miller 2017: in 2015, based on a survey of 3949 firearm owners, ~380,000 firearms are stolen from individuals every year; gun owners who reported safely storing their guns were 3x less likely to report gun thefts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/980582741320028160/unknown.png """Among gun owners, 2.4% report having one or more guns stolen in the past 5 years (Table 1). The mean number of guns stolen per incident was 1.5(95% CI: 1.0,2.0). Using data from the April 2015 survey, we estimated that 22% of US adults are gun owners (Azrael et al. 2015), consistent with findings from the General Social Surveys from the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center (Smith and Son 2015). Using these results, and given approximately 242 million adults lived in the US (average for 2011–2015), we estimate that there were 1.2 million incidents of gun theft over a 5-year period, or about 250,000 incidents per year. With 1.5 guns stolen per incident, we estimate that approximately 380,000 guns (95% CI 260,000,510,000) were stolen per year.""" based on FBI crime statistics, ~320,000 firearms are stolen from individuals and gun stores every year: Gun theft is not a minor problem in the United States. According to data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), during the four-year period from 2012 to 2015, nearly half a billion dollars worth of guns were stolen from individuals nationwide, amounting to an estimated 1.2 million guns. Twenty-two thousand guns were stolen from gun stores during this same period. # trafficking guns are trafficked from states with weak gun laws to states with strong gun laws: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470688846292582410/unknown.png guns are trafficked from states with weak gun laws to states with strong gun laws: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/470689149217931274/asher-guns-1.png # policy Collins et al 2018: guns flow from states with weak firearm laws to states with strong firearm laws; each additional law decreases by 1.56% the portion of firearms traced to a source in that state: (laws: dealer licensing for handguns, waiting periods, buyer licensing, registration of handgun sales, prohibition for violent misdemeanors, mandatory firearm relinquishment after prohibition, universal background checks, and straw purchase bans): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643145969004707850/unknown.png unformatted, unread: firearm control is effective at reducing illegal firearm ownership and trafficking to other states: : Because an estimated 270 million guns are in private hands nationwide, effective control is said to be beyond reach (Azrael et al. 2017). But this “futility” claim is in our judgment based on a misunderstanding of how guns come to be used in criminal violence. Despite that the number of private guns is enough to arm every adult, the great majority of adults (78 percent) do not in fact own one. **The main concern should be less about the current stock of guns in private hands and more about the flow of guns: the ease of obtaining one for criminal purposes.** [....] Real-world markets tend to be a good deal messier than Economics 101 reveals, and underground markets particularly so. [....] **[T]he money price is not the only or necessarily the most important cost to obtaining a gun outside the formal market. Other types of transactions costs are relevant, including the search time required for the buyer and seller to find each other, the payments to a broker or other intermediary, and the risk of arrest.** [....] We report evidence suggesting that in some respects the underground market is sensitive to regulation. For example, **when Virginia adopted a one gun per month maximum on handgun sales to any one customer, that state’s prominence as a “source” state in trafficking to Massachusetts and other states with relatively stringent regulations dropped sharply** (see Braga 2017). # use in crime most firearm used in crimes come from household thefts: Guns are legal commodities, but violent offenders typically obtain their guns by illegal means. Our knowledge of these transactions comes primarily from trace data on guns recovered by the police and from occasional surveys of gun-involved offenders. **Because most guns used in crime are sourced from the stock of guns in private hands (rather than a purchase from a licensed dealer), the local prevalence of gun ownership appears to influence the transaction costs and the proportions of robberies and assaults committed with guns rather than knives or other weapons**. Nonetheless, regulations that govern licensed dealers have been linked to trafficking patterns and in some cases to the use of guns in crime. of gun trafficking incidents, 32-34% involved guns stolen from stores or residences: A 2000 ATF report that reviewed all firearms trafficking investigations undertaken by the agency between July 1996 and December 1998—the most recent such study the agency has conducted—found that nearly 14 percent of those cases involved guns stolen from licensed gun dealers and another 10 percent involved guns stolen from private residences.11 These investigations involved more than 9,300 illegally trafficked guns.12 Another study analyzed data on 893 guns recovered by the Pittsburgh Bureau of Police Firearms Trafficking Unit in 2008 and found that for close to 32 percent of these firearms, their original owners claimed they had been stolen.13 #####c ##### # mental illness not cause of firearm violence #####o # international across countries, mental illness is a significant but weak predictor of firearm deaths; firearms per capita is a strong predictor: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/541674818345500688/unknown.png """In a linear regression model with firearm-related deaths as the dependent variable with gun ownership and mental illness as independent covariates, gun ownership was a significant predictor (P <.0001) of firearm-related deaths, whereas mental illness was of borderline significance (P = .05) only.""" # united states the seriously mentally ill don't disproportionately commit crimes (4% population, 4% crimes) and they use less firearms in the crimes they do commit: [S]urprisingly little population-level evidence supports the notion that individuals diagnosed with mental illness are more likely than anyone else to commit gun crimes. **According to Appelbaum,25 less than 3% to 5% of US crimes involve people with mental illness, and the percentages of crimes that involve guns are lower than the national average for persons not diagnosed with mental illness.** Databases that track gun homicides, such as the National Center for Health Statistics, similarly show that fewer than 5% of the 120,000 gun-related killings in the United States between 2001 and 2010 were perpetrated by people diagnosed with mental illness.26 [....] [A] number of the most common psychiatric diagnoses, including depressive, anxiety, and attention-deficit disorders, have no correlation with violence whatsoever.18 **Community studies find that serious mental illness without substance abuse is also “statistically unrelated” to community violence.40** At the aggregate level, the vast majority of people diagnosed with psychiatric disorders do not commit violent acts—only about 4% of violence in the United States can be attributed to people diagnosed with mental illness.41,42 # lone wolves the vast majority of violence is not done by "loners": Contrary to the image of the marauding lone gunman, social relationships also predict gun violence. Regression analyses by Papachristos et al. demonstrate that up to 85% of shootings occur within social networks.60 In other words, **people are far more likely to be shot by relatives, friends, enemies, or acquaintances than they are by lone violent psychopaths.** Meanwhile, a report by the police department of New York City found that, in 2013, a person was “more likely to die in a plane crash, drown in a bathtub or perish in an earthquake” than be murdered by a crazed stranger in that city.61 # poor prediction by psychologists psychologists are bad at predicting gun violence: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4318286/: [R]esearch dating back to the 1970s suggests that psychiatrists using clinical judgment are not much better than laypersons at predicting which individual patients will commit violent crimes and which will not. [....] Thirty-three years later, Swanson put it even more succinctly: **“psychiatrists using clinical judgment are not much better than chance at predicting which individual patients will do something violent and which will not.”**31,45 [unformatted] #####c ##### # firearm types #####o # correlation: caliber higher-caliber bullets are substantially more likely to result in a death than lower-caliber bullets: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640016807524171828/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # constitutionality # #####o ##### # overall 2A jurisprudence #####o # terminology 2-part approach: asks whether law meaningfully restricts 2A rights (such as self-defense) and then asks whether the state has grounds for this restriction (under the 3-tier scrutiny approach), nearly unanimously accepted by courts text, history, and tradition approach: asks whether law aligns with interpretation of historical ("Founding") documents, generally preferred by 2A advocates rational basis test: lightest level of scrutiny, asks whether law [1] furthers an legitimate government interest and [2] does so by means that are rationally connected to that interest intermediate scrutiny: middling level of scrutiny, asks whether law [1] furthers an important government interest and [2] does so by means that are substantially related to that interest heightened scrutiny: harshest level of scrutiny, asks whether law [1] furthers a compelling government interest and [2] does so by means that are narrowly tailored to achieve that interest # timeline of landmark cases 1939: US v Miller: unclear judgement: 2008: DC v Heller: the 2nd Amendment protects individual right to use firearm for traditionally lawful purposes, including self-defense in the home: 2010: McDonald v Chicago: the 2nd Amendment was incorporated down to states and localities: 2020: NYSRPA v NYC: ongoing relevant case: # success rate over time Ruben and Blocher 2018: 2A successes in appeals courts have increased since 2008, from ~5% to ~15%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/875837632075153488/unknown.png #####c ##### # two-part test #####o # summary of two-part: congressional research service Peck 2019: """Generally, the courts have adopted a two-step framework for evaluating Second Amendment challenges. First, courts ask whether the regulated person, firearm, or place comes within the scope of the Second Amendment’s protections. If not, the law does not implicate the Second Amendment. But if so, the court next employs the appropriate level of judicial scrutiny—rational basis, intermediate, or strict scrutiny—to assess whether the law passes constitutional muster. In deciding what level of scrutiny is warranted, courts generally ask whether the challenged law burdens core Second Amendment conduct, like the ability to use a firearm for self-defense in the home. If a law substantially burdens core Second Amendment activity, courts typically will apply strict scrutiny. Otherwise, courts generally will apply intermediate scrutiny. Most challenged laws have been reviewed for intermediate scrutiny, where a court asks whether a law is substantially related to an important governmental interest.""" # two-part test is judicial consensus Charles 2019: the two-part test is near-unanimous consensus among Circuit of Appeals judges: """Take the question of how Second Amendment challenges ought to be adjudicated. The courts of appeals have uniformly adopted a two-part test: courts ask first whether activity or conduct is protected by the Second Amendment and, if it is, they apply some form of means-end scrutiny to determine constitutionality. Although some circuit judges have advocated rejecting the two-part test in favor of a “text, history, and tradition” approach (including then-Judge Kavanaugh), no federal court of appeals has adopted that framework—or any methodology that jettisons the two-part test. That could change in the current Second Amendment challenge pending in the Supreme Court, but for now the methodological question is settled.""" # two-part test approach: being applied! Ruben and Blocher 2018: application of the two-part test has remained constant at around 45% of cases; this may undercount the true rate, as courts may not explicitly state that they are applying the first step: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/875838783050874930/unknown.png """There are good reasons to suppose that these results underreport the influence and adoption of the two-part test, however, at least within the federal courts. Just 32 percent of state appellate challenges applied the two-part test, compared with 46 percent of federal challenges. Moreover, as in other areas, courts may not be explicit when they are using the two-part test—many of the cases that involve the application of tiered scrutiny might actually be instances of courts assuming coverage and skipping to the second step.243 Finally, the percentage of cases applying the two-part test increased steadily after 2012. This may reflect the growing impact of circuit opinions expressly adopting this decisional framework.244 Of the nine circuits that expressly adopted the two-part test, six did so in 2011 or later.245""" # text, history, and tradition approach: not being applied! Ruben and Blocher 2018: citations to historical sources have dropped from ~20% before 2012 (when circuit courts began explicitly applying the 2-part test) to ~10% after; among cases that cited historical sources, the vast majority (63%) included 1935-1968 sources, fewer (23%) included 1791-1868 sources, and fewest (16%) included pre-1791 sources: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/875838519036219392/unknown.png #####c ##### # specific legislation constitutionality #####o # unanimous court support for certain prohibitions Charles 2019: every court of appeals has agreed that large-capacity magazine bans, assault weapon bans, prohibited person bans (felon bans, domestic violence bans), unusual weapon bans, and machine gun bans: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/978857068909957160/unknown.png """The circuit courts have also largely agreed on specific types of Second Amendment challenges. Without exception, every federal court of appeals to have considered the question has upheld a ban on large-capacity magazines (indeed, a district judge in California recently “became the first federal court in the nation to invalidate LCM restrictions”). The courts of appeals have uniformly upheld bans on so-called “assault weapons.” (Some have done so under Step 1, ruling that “assault weapons” have no Second Amendment protection whatsoever; others have done so under Step 2, upholding the bans under intermediate scrutiny.) These courts have, in addition, consistently rejected facial challenges to the firearms prohibition for felons—and many other categories of prohibited persons: “Facial challenges to the statute’s constitutionality have failed in every circuit to have considered the issue.” They have consistently rejected challenges to laws banning, or tightly regulating, possession of certain types of dangerous and unusual weapons. For example, “Every post-Heller circuit court that has addressed the machine gun issue has rejected Second Amendment claims.” The amount of agreement over such a wide swath of regulations is noteworthy.""" # statistical court support for prohibitions by category Ruben and Blocher 2018: cases are most likely to be successful if attacking public carry restrictions (22%) and where guns may be carried (18%), then gun licensing regimes (16%) and what guns may be purchased (13%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/875839720628822056/unknown.png # gun permits Ruben and Blocher 2018: excluding the District of Columbia, only 3% of challenges to gun permitting for possession succeeded: """The final category of challenges involved laws calling for the permitting of firearms or of people desiring to possess or purchase them.237 These restrictions have also been controversial, resulting in 114 challenges and a 16 percent success rate. Much of that success corresponds to litigation involving the District of Columbia’s evolving regulatory regime.238 Absent the litigation in the District of Columbia, the success rate in this category drops to 3 percent.""" # felon posssession ban Ruben and Blocher 2018: every court held that felons can be banned from firearm possession: """This relatively low success rate was largely due to 273 challenges to felon-in-possession statutes. These challenges, which account for 24 percent of the entire dataset, were rejected 99 percent of time and enjoyed no success at the federal appellate level during our study period.207""" # assault weapon ban Ruben and Blocher 2018: every court held that assault weapons can be banned: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/894767809404469258/unknown.png """One controversial policy in the public debate has been less so in court: bans on assault weapons. The database contains eighteen challenges to assault weapon bans—ten in federal court and eight in state appellate court. During the study period, courts rejected all but two: Wilson v. County of Cook, in which the Illinois Supreme Court remanded for further fact finding,214 and Cutonilli v. State, 215 in which the district court stayed proceedings pending the outcome in a similar case, Kolbe v. Hogan. In Kolbe, the Fourth Circuit ultimately upheld the ban.216""" # safe storage requirement Ruben and Blocher 2018: zero appeals courts and only one lower court have ruled against safe storage laws: """“How” restrictions, those requiring safe storage of firearms, have rarely been a litigation target—they account for just 1 percent of the dataset. Overall, this category has a 13 percent success rate, with a single victory at each of the federal trial and state appellate levels.222 This is one area, however, where success may prove short-lived. The court in one of the two cases denied a motion to dismiss a complaint challenging Illinois’s safe storage law, but noted that the plaintiffs “may face an uphill battle on the merits of their claim” at later stages.223 The claim then became moot and was dismissed after a plaintiff in the case moved to another state.224 In the other case, the court remanded for the trial court to apply heightened scrutiny to Ohio’s vehicle storage law.225 On remand and in a subsequent appeal, the law was upheld.226""" #####c ##### # gun quotes from major socialist theorists #####o # summary Marx suggested that workers should arm themselves in a very different context than today. Engels suggested that workers should not fire first in a context more similar to today. # engels 1895 Engels 1895: classic street revolution likely outmoded, rifles will mow down workers: Engels 1895: however, there remains a "right to revolution": """Of course, our comrades abroad have not abandoned the right to revolution. The right to revolution is, in the last analysis, the only real “historic right” upon which all modern States rest without exception, including even Mecklenburg where the revolution of the nobility was terminated in 1755 through the “inheritance agreement,” the glorious confirmation of feudalism valid this very day. The right to revolution is so thoroughly recognized in the inner consciousness of man, that even General von Boguslawski deduces from this popular right alone the coup d’état whereby to vindicate his Kaiser.""" With this successful utilization of the general franchise, an entirely new method of the proletarian struggle had come into being[.] [....] Bourgeoisie and Government feared far more the legal than the illegal action of the workers’ party, more the successes of the elections than those of rebellion. [....] The irony of history turns everything upside down. We, the "revolutionists," ... thrive much better with legal than with illegal means in forcing an overthrow. [....] [I]f we are not insane enough to favor them by letting them drive us into street battles, nothing will in the end be left to them but themselves to break through the legality that is so fatal to them. """The rebellion of the old style, the street fight behind barricades, which up to 1848 gave the final decision, has become antiquated. .... Already in 1849 the chances of success were rather poor. .... [T]he barricade had a moral rather than a material effect. It was a means to shake the solidity of the military. If it held until that had been accomplished, the victory was won; if not, it meant defeat. .... Since then, much more has been changed, all in favor of the military. .... Does the reader understand why the ruling classes, by hook or by crook, would get us where the rifle pops? Why they charge us with cowardice because we will not get down into the street where we are sure of our defeat in advance?""" # marx 1850 Marx 1850: abbreviated quote: gun good: """The workers must be armed and organized. The whole proletariat must be armed at once with muskets, rifles, cannon and ammunition, and the revival of the old-style citizens’ militia, directed against the workers, must be opposed. Under no pretext should arms and ammunition be surrendered; any attempt to disarm the workers must be frustrated, by force if necessary.""" Marx 1850: full quote: guns are good, when controlled by organized workers and used to oppose the petty-bourgeois parties that Marx thought would win in the (non-existent) revolutions following the 1848 rebellions: """The relationship of the revolutionary workers’ party to the petty-bourgeois democrats is this: it cooperates with them against the party which they aim to overthrow; it opposes them wherever they wish to secure their own position. [....] [F]rom the very moment of [joint worker and petty-bourgeois democratic] victory the workers’ suspicion must be directed no longer against the defeated reactionary party but against their former ally[.] [...] To be able forcefully and threateningly to oppose this party, whose betrayal of the workers will begin with the very first hour of victory, the workers must be armed and organized. The whole proletariat must be armed at once with muskets, rifles, cannon and ammunition[.] [....] Where the workers are employed by the state, they must arm and organize themselves into special corps with elected leaders, or as a part of the proletarian guard. Under no pretext should arms and ammunition be surrendered; any attempt to disarm the workers must be frustrated, by force if necessary.""" Marx 1850: meme quote: The relationship of the revolutionary workers’ party to the petty-bourgeois democrats is this: it cooperates with them against the [reactionary] party which they aim to overthrow; it opposes them wherever they wish to secure their own position. .... [F]rom the very moment of victory the workers’ suspicion must be directed no longer against the defeated reactionary party but against their former ally[.] ... To be able forcefully and threateningly to oppose this party, whose betrayal of the workers will begin with the very first hour of victory, the workers must be armed and organized. The whole proletariat must be armed at once with muskets, rifles, cannon and ammunition[.] #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # miscellaneous # # #####o ##### # # jews: the international jewish conspiracy # #####o ##### # slave ownership was not dominated by Jewish people #####o # memes original meme: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640989157384126465/739dfcb78fbf47efbd5ea605890e2b781b4a4e16.png counter meme: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640989169459396618/unknown.png # data Silverman 1997 (ed Rodriguez): about 1 in 4 Jews who could own slaves (ie, adult male heads of household) did: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1035325809348579378/unknown.png Yet it must be remembered that as successful as these Jewish Southerners were by Southern standards, they represented a very tiny percentage of the 20,000 Jews residing in the antebellum South who could, or would, ever aspire to own a slave. (About 5,000 Jews owned one or more slaves -- about 1.25 percent of all the slaveowners in the antebellum South.) about 1 in 4 Southerner households owned slaves: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/564452571201142784/unknown.png #####c ##### # slave ship ownership was not dominated by Jewish people #####o # memes original meme: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/643816612297965568/images.png # data Faber 2000: 25 of 1483 ships (1.69%) entering Barbados in 1718-21 were wholly or partially owned by Jews: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/644189412741218324/unknown.png Between March 25, 1718 and June 25, 1721, of 1,483 ships entering in and then clearing out, 1,458, or 98.3 percent, were owned by non-Jews (Table 4.1). Thirteen vessels, or less than 1 percent (eight-tenths of 1 percent), were owned by Jewish individuals, while an additional 12 vessels were owned by combinations of Jewish and non-Jewish partners. The majority of the Jewish individuals involved, however, did not reside in Barbados.8 Faber 2000: between 1 (0.3%) and 0 (0%) of 345 ships entering Barbados in 1735-36 were (possibly) owned by Jews: Between March 25, 1735 and March 25, 1736, not a single vessel that arrived in the colony belonged to a Jewish merchant. Of the 345 that entered during that period, 344, or 99.7 percent, were owned by non-Jews. In the remaining case, the Naval Office did not record the name of the owner.9 Faber 2000: 4 of 420 ships (0.95%) entering Barbados in 1774-75 were owned by Jews: Later in the century, of 424 vessels that arrived in Barbados between January 1, 1774 and January 5, 1775, 420, or 99 percent, were owned by non-Jews. Faber 2000: 0 of 215 Africa-destined ships from London during 1764, 1776, and 1790 had Jewish primary owners: Lloyd’s register for 1764, the first published, listed 74 London vessels with Africa as their destination; none of the primary owners listed therein was Jewish.117 The registers for 1776 and 1790 respectively listed 72 and 69 vessels, again with primary owners whose names were not Jewish.118 Faber 2000: 0 of 190 Liverpool merchants in the Company of Merchants Trading to Africa of 1752 or 1758 were Jewish: As in London and Bristol, the Jews of Liverpool did not own ships in the slave trade. Peddlers and petty shopkeepers, none were on the list of 101 Liverpool merchants who belonged to the Company of Merchants Trading to Africa in 1752, nor, as noted previously, among the 89 who belonged to it in 1758.127 Faber 2000: 0 of the primary owners of Liverpool's slave-trading firms in 1752, 1764, 1790, and 1807 were Jewish: Nor were Jews to be found among the 66 primary owners of the 88 Liverpool vessels trading with Africa in 1752 that carried 24,730 slaves, or among the owners of the 80 Liverpool vessels listed by Lloyd’s as trading there in 1764.128 Twenty-six years later, in 1790, the Liverpool slave fleet of 141 vessels was owned by forty firms, none of which was Jewish. And in 1807, the year in which Britain terminated the slave trade throughout its empire, none of Liverpool’s seventy-odd companies trading to Africa was Jewish.129 #####c ##### # judeo-bolshevism: the Soviet Union was not dominated by Jewish people #####o # summary Jewish people were very overrepresented in some institutions of Soviet power, but only slightly overrepresented in all institutions of Soviet power, especially when Jewish urbanicity and Soviet preference for urban residents is taken into account. Regardless, Jewish people made up a small minority of powerholders, and could not have controlled the Soviet Union. Beyond that, Communist Jews saw themselves as committed Marxists, firmly opposed to Judaism, who did not prioritize their Jewish ethnicity: any claims of a Jewish plots to control the Soviet Union must contend that a small minority of committed communist atheists were actually mere puppets of their spooky scary evil Jewish genetics. # memes nazi meme: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/573262279500496931/jewish_bolshevik_regime_in_USSR.png nazi meme: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1114086362384171129/FxbX7lVakAM8bqa.png anti-nazi countermeme: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/573261686388293667/unknown.png countervideos: # overview of the research: jews were likely overrepresented, but most were apolitical (like most people) and most gravitated to jewish organizations Gerrits 1995: Jews were probably more radical than than non-Jews, but the vast majority of Jews (and the vast majority of non-Jews) were apolitical; the extreme positions of equation ("Jews = communist" or "Jews = radical") and denial ("Jews = centrist" or "Jews = anti-radical") are wrong: """Most scholars who have studied the relationship between Jews and revolution hold views which lie somewhere between the extremes of denial and equation. They usually reject any distinctive affinity between 'Jewishness' and political radicalism but accept the obvious attraction of political radicalism on relatively many people of Jewish origin and present a number of arguments in favour of this thesis.""" Gerrits 1995: """The anti-Jewish purges in various Communist parties from the late 1940s onwards were at least partly inspired by the intention to dissociate the movement from Jews as soon as possible. Ultimately, the Communist leaderships would not only declare the idea of 'Judeo Communism* nonexistent, and repress any reference to it, but they would actually distort • the significance of the whole idea of the Jewish world conspiracy and cloak it in terms of 'rootless cosmopolitanism' or 'international Zionism'""" # demographic data Wikipedia's summary of "Jewish involvement in Russian Communism" (not much): AshHistorian's summary of Judeo-Bolshevism: Overy 2013: Overy 2005: in 1917, the Bolshevik Party had 26,000 members; before 1917, only 958 were Jews (3.68% of 26000); in contrast, the anti-Bolshevik Jewish Bund had 33,000 members (more than the entire Bolshevik Party): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/569902580134576155/unknown.png ^ citation: Gitelman 1997: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/900068725351383090/unknown.png ^^ citation: Gitelman 1972: Herf 2009: Jews as a portion of the USSR's leadership: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/572565608433188874/unknown.png #####c ##### # proportion of russian and soviet population #####o # 1897 Census 1897 Census all results: 1897 Census by religion (urban and rural): 1897 Census by language (urban and rural): # 1926 Census 1926 Census all results: 1926 Census by nationality (urban and rural): # 1939 Census 1939 Census all results: 1939 Census by nationality (urban and rural): #####c ##### # best source: Pinkus 1988 #####o # pinkus 1988: reliable source: summary Pinkus 1988: The Jews of the Soviet Union: The History of a National Minority """The question posed from time to time, whether the Bolshevik regime was 'the handiwork of the Jews' is misconceived - it has no historical basis and has generally been raised by those who hate the Jews. Notwithstanding the important part played by Jews, the October Revolution was the outcome of propitious circumstances and was the handiwork of many peoples: the Russians themselves first and foremost, the Jews, and the Latvians and the Poles all played a decisive role in the critical hours after the installation of the new regime after the October Revolution.""" # pinkus 1988: reliable source: leadership Pinkus 1988: data on leadership before the revolution: The Jews of the Soviet Union: The History of a National Minority """From 1903 to 1907 there were Jews among the leaders of the Bolshevik Party, which was run by Lenin as a clandestine organization. In each of the troikas ('threes') that headed the party, at least until 1917, there was always one Jew, if not two, except for the years 1903 to 1905: from 1905 to 1907 Viktor Taratuta; from 1907 to 1911, Grigori Zinovyev; from 1911 to 1914, Lev Kamenev and Grigori Zinovyev; and in the war years Zinovyev was still there. Among the Jewish leaders at the middle level - the connecting link between the leadership in exile and the head of the branches in Russia - were: Rozalya Zemlyachka, Maxim Litvinov (Valakh), Viktor Taratuta (already mentioned) and Emelian Yaroslavsky (Gubelman). Three of the fifteen members of the Bolshevik Central Committee of 1907 were Jews: Zinovyev, Goldenberg, Taratuta. At the Prague Conference two of the six members of the centre were Jews: Zinovyev and Shvartsman.60 In the period between the February and October Revolutions in 1917, the percentage of Jews in the Bolshevik Party leadership rose, mainly as a result of the adhesion of the 'inter-regional' group led by Lev Trotsky. In April 1917, three of the nine members of the Central Committee were Jews: Kamenev, Zinovyev and Sverdlov. In August of that year, six of the twenty-one members of the Central Committee were Jews: Kamenev, Sokolnikov, Sverdlov, Zinovyev, Trotsky and Uritsky. [....] 60 All the data on the composition of the top Communist Party institutions are based on a list of persons drawn from the party congresses. For lack of space we shall not detail all the bibliographical data on the subject.""" ^ Top Troikas: 0/3 from 1903-1905, 1/3 from 05-07, 1/3 from 07-11, 2/3 from 11-14, 1/3 from 14-17 ^ Middle level: unclear size ^ 1907: 3/15 ^ Prague 1912: 2/6 ^ April 1917: 3/9 ^ August 1917: 6/21 Pinkus 1988: data on leadership after the revolution; note that many Jewish leaders were ousted or killed: The Jews of the Soviet Union: The History of a National Minority """Jews held important posts in the Communist Party leadership in the 1920s and still had considerable power in the 1930s. In 1918, four of the fourteen members of the Central Committee were Jews (Sverdlov, Trotsky, Zinovyev and Sokolnikov); in 1919, again four of the nineteen Central Committee members were Jews (Kamenev, Radek, Trotsky and Zinovyev), while in 1921 five of the twenty-five members (20%) were Jews. The ratio was not as high among the candidate members. In 1939 there were eleven Jewish full members and three candidate members, in all 10.1% of the ruling body, at a time when the Jews formed just over 4% of the Party membership. In the Politburo in the first half of the 1920s the Jews comprised from 23% to 37% (Trotsky, Kamenev and Zinovyev), but after the 'United opposition' had been ousted from the party leadership in 1926 not one Jew remained in the Politburo. In the 1930s, however, there was one Jew in this important organization, Lazar Kaganovich, who also held a central position in the Communist Party in the Ukraine. In the 1920s and 1930s, Jews held important posts in other party organizations, such as the Organizational Bureau and the Secretariat; among them were Lazar Kaganovich, M. Kaganovich (younger brother of Lazar), Lev Mekhlis, M. Rukhimovich, A. Yakovlev (Epshtein) and Ian Gamarnik. Most of them were liquidated in the 1930s purges, although not necessarily because they were Jews.""" Pinkus 1988: during the 1930s, Jewish people in the Soviet Union formed a similar role as of Germans under the Tsar: very involved in the educated bureaucracy; however, among the senior government as a whole, Jews made up just 6% of "elite" positions: The Jews of the Soviet Union: The History of a National Minority """In 1936 (before the purges), there were six Jews among the twenty members of the Soviet government: Yagoda (Minister of the Interior and the Security Services), L. Kaganovich (Communications), M. Litvinov (Foreign Affairs), Rozengolts (Foreign Trade), Y. Dreitser (Internal Trade), A. Kalmanovich (Agricultural Units).69 By 1939, the following Jewish Ministers and Deputy-Ministers were still in the government: L. Kaganovich, M. Kaganovich, B. Antselovich, M. Berman, L. Ginzburg, L. Vannikov and P. Zhemchuzhina-Molotov. Thus, throughout the whole period, Jewish representation in the central administration was well above any proportional relation to the national ratio of the Jews in the Soviet Union, and very high in comparison with all the other national minorities. We can say that the Jews in the Soviet Union took over the privileged position, previously held by the Germans in tsarist Russia. In the senior ranks of the bureaucracy, the Jews held important posts in many ministries, but were particularly numerous in the Ministries of the Interior, Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade. If we take all three sectors of the administration, it emerges that of the 417 people who constituted the ruling elite of the Soviet Union in the mid 1920s (the members of the Central Executive Committee, the Party Central Committee, the Presidium of the Executive of the Soviets of the USSR and the Russian Republic, the governments of the Soviet Union and the Russian Republic, the Ministers, and the Chairman of the Executive Committee), twenty-seven (that is 6%) were Jews.70 [....] 69 Vlast Sovetov, 1936, no. 9 (10)[.] 70 Larin, Antisemitizm, p. 114.""" Pinkus 1988: Red Army leadership: The Jews of the Soviet Union: The History of a National Minority """In the Red Army High Command in 1926 Jews constituted 4.57%, while the Belorussians for example, with a far larger population, comprised only 4.37%. In the 1930s, many Jews held high rank in the Red Army High Command; prominent among them were Generals Yona Yakir, Ian Gamarnik, Yakov Smushkevich (Commander of the Air Force) and Grigori Shtern (Commander-in-Chief in the war against Japan and Commander at the front in the war with Finland from 1938-39).""" # pinkus 1988: reliable source: why overrepresented in leadership? Pinkus 1988: summarizes why elite Jewish members of the Bolsheviks were drawn to the party: The Jews of the Soviet Union: The History of a National Minority """It follows that despite the relatively small number of Jews in the Bolshevik Party, they held important posts in the leadership and were close associates of Lenin. The geographical and social background of these Jews is interesting: they came from Jewish families that had taken the path of assimilation, coming from the Ukraine ('new' Russia) and inner Russia; they had been educated in Russian schools; their parents had been agriculturists or settlers (Zinovyev, Trotsky, Yaroslavsky) or 'workers by brain' (Litvinov, Zemliachka, Kamenev); the exception was Lazar Kaganovich, who came from a working-class family (his father was a shoemaker). What drew them to the Bolshevik Party was its centralizing and dictatorial character, which offered them an outlet for their revolutionary drive and at the same time promised a solution to their national problem by allowing them to become part of the society surrounding them and of its Russian culture.""" Pinkus 1988: the proportion of Jewish people in leadership declined during the 1930s as educated national elites arose: The Jews of the Soviet Union: The History of a National Minority """The proportion of Jews decreased in the 1930s during the course of a natural process whereby a national elite came into being and found a place in the central administration; but it was still true that the Jews held a share in government more than double their proportion in the population. In the economic elite in the Soviet Union in the 1920s, the share of the Jews was even more impressive, reaching as high as ten per cent.71 [....] 70 Larin, Antisemitizm, p. 114. 71 Ibid., p. 115.""" Pinkus 1988: data on leadership in the three republics with the most Jewish members: underrepresented relative to their party membership, due to korenizatsiia: The Jews of the Soviet Union: The History of a National Minority """In the Ukraine in 1927 there were over 20,000 Jewish party members, about twelve per cent of all party members, while in 1940, as noted above, their proportion of the party rose to 13%. In Belorussia, with its large urban Jewish population, there were 6,012 Jews in the party in 1927, about 24% of the total party membership. In the Ukraine and Belorussia, the Jews' share in the party leadership was not as high. Although Lazar Kaganovich was one of the most powerful figures in the Ukraine in the late 1920s, the Jews were not adequately represented in the higher levels of the institutions, given their proportionate strength in the party. The reason for this was the policy of accelerating Ukrainization and Belorussification in these republics, which took an extreme nationalist form and not only ousted the Russians from the leadership but also representatives of their national minorities - mainly the Jews, because of their influence in central government and tendencies towards Russification.""" # pinkus 1988: reliable source: mass membership Pinkus 1988: membership before 1918: The Jews of the Soviet Union: The History of a National Minority """There is no data about the number of members of the Bolshevik Party before 1917 and nothing about the ratio of Jews within it. If we go by the 1922 census of party members, it appears that out of the total number of Jewish members in 1922, 964 joined before 1917 and 2,182 in 1917. If there were something like 23,000 members in the Bolshevik Party at the beginning of 1917 and roughly 1,000 Jews, this means that they constituted less than five per cent of the membership at a time when the Lithuanians, with a smaller population, formed seven per cent of all members of the Communist Party.58 For the sake of comparison, it is worth recalling that in 1917 there were about 33,000 members of the Bund alone.59""""""58 Sharapov, Natsionalnye sektsii, pp. 239. 59 On Jews in the Russian revolutionary movement, see L. Schapiro, 'The Role of the Jews in the Russian Revolutionary Movement', The Slavonic and East European Review, 1961, vol. 40, no. 12; Gitelman, Jewish Nationality, pp. 105-19. [....] Ya. Sharapov, Natsionalnye sektsii RKP(b), Kazan, Kazansky Universitet, 1967. [Национальные секции РКП(б). ЯШ Шарапов - 1967 - Изд-во Казан. ун-та / National sections of the RCP(b)][also Шарапов Я.Ш. Национальные секции РКП(б). - Казань, l967.]""" ^ cannot find original copy of this source! Pinkus 1988: membership before 1917: The Jews of the Soviet Union: The History of a National Minority """In 1918, 2,712 Jews joined the Bolshevik Party, and 11,471 in 1919 and 1920, the years of pogroms and of the strengthening of Soviet rule; this was a period when only 14,120 Ukrainians joined, out of a population ten times greater than the Jews. In 1922, the year of the membership census, there were 19,564 Jews in the Party - 5.21% of all Communist Party members, while only 2,217 Germans were members, out of a population of 1,400,000. In 1927, the last year in this period for which there are complete data, there were 49,627 Jewish members, 4.34% of all Party members (as compared with 0.49% Germans, and 1.66% Poles). As regards their social structure, the Jewish members of the party were classified as follows: workers - 67.5% in the Ukraine, 47.8% in the Russian Republic, and 7.22% in Belorussia; clerical workers - 28.8% in the Ukraine, 48% in the Russian Republic, and 19% in Belorussia.61 The last available data on the Jews' share in the party is from the Ukraine in 1940, where Jews formed 13.4% of party membership in the Republic, but represented only 4.9% of the Jewish population. Since the Jews in the Ukraine in 1939 comprised more than half the Jews in the Soviet Union, and since the ratio of Jews in the Communist Party in the Russian Republic and in Belorussia was not very different from that in the Ukraine, some researchers have concluded that the Jews constituted 4.9% of the Communist Party in the whole of the Soviet Union.62 However, an analysis of the 1940 development of party membership among other nationalities, which were beginning to take a more important place than they had done in the 1920s, makes it seem more likely that the percentage of Jews in the Party in 1939 was nearer its 1927 level of 4.3%, or even less. [....] 61 Meirevnik, 1930, no. 6, pp. 28-30; Sotsialnyi i natsionalnyi sostav, p. 1[.] 2 T. M. Rigby, Communist Party Membership in the USSR igiy-ig6y, New Jersey, Princeton University Press, 1968, pp. 366-88.""" Pinkus 1988: membership before 1917: The Jews of the Soviet Union: The History of a National Minority """In the Communist Youth Movement (Komsomol) in October 1929, the number of Jews reached 98,823, just over 4% of the total membership. As the Jews were an educated urban population, this was not a high proportion.63 [....] 63 Between 1925, when Jews constituted 4.8% of the Komsomol, and 1929 there was a decrease to 4%. This was apparently a reasonable figure, given the mass character of the organization (over two million members). See Alfarbandische baratung, p. 36""" #####c ##### # sources cited by nazis #####o # common source: vladimir putin putin claims the first Soviet government was mostly Jewish: response: Putin is not a historian and doesn't know what he's talking about lol # common source: sever plocker, "stalin's jews" Plocker 2006: in an opinion piece, without any citation, Sever Plocker (a Jewish person but not a historian) claims 38.5% of high security posts were Jewish people: Opinion: Stalin's Jews """Many Jews sold their soul to the devil of the Communist revolution and have blood on their hands for eternity. We'll mention just one more: Leonid Reichman, head of the NKVD's special department and the organization's chief interrogator, who was a particularly cruel sadist. In 1934, according to published statistics, 38.5 percent of those holding the most senior posts in the Soviet security apparatuses were of Jewish origin. They too, of course, were gradually eliminated in the next purges. In a fascinating lecture at a Tel Aviv University convention this week, Dr. Halfin described the waves of soviet terror as a "carnival of mass murder," "fantasy of purges", and "essianism of evil." Turns out that Jews too, when they become captivated by messianic ideology, can become great murderers, among the greatest known by modern history.""" ^ Plocker is the editor of Yedioth Ahronoth, a centrist newspaper: # common source: timothy snyder's "bloodlands" Snyder 2010: Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin """About forty percent of high-ranking NKVD officers had Jewish nationality recorded in their identity documents, as did more than half of the NKVD generals.""" # common source: george simons, "bolshevik propaganda" my video about the subject: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-5b1CpjAcQ Simons praising the Protocols of the Elders of Zion as a reputable source: ^ the protocols were a notorious fake: """Mr. Simons. There is a gentleman here in America who last night called on me. [....] He asked me whether I knew anything about the anti-Christian element in the Bolshevik regime. I said, "Indeed, I do. I do know all about it." He said, "Did you ever come across the so-called Jewish protocols?" I said, "Yes; I have had them." "I have a memorandum," he said, "and last win- ter after much trouble I came into possession of a book which was called 'Eedusti, anti-Christ.' "Now, Dr. Houghton in the mean- time had investigated this. He had come into possession of this book, which is quite rare now, because it was said that when the edition came out it was immediately bought up by the Jews in Petrograd and Moscow. That book reflects a real organization. That book is of some consequence. But the average person in official life here in Washington and elsewhere is afraid to handle it. Houghton says that even in his intelligence bureau they were afraid of it.""" # common source: dr. hermann greife, "Slave Labor" or "Concentration Camps" Herman Greife was a Russian German who published books for the Nazis and was a member of the SS: """From there he moved to the Institute for the Study of Eastern Europe (Wannsee-Institute), which was part of the SD structure, where in 1936-1937 he was the manager of affairs[4], and where from September 1938 to 1940 he worked with the Deputy Director of the Institute for Research Mikhail Akhmeteli[1]. During his work in these think tanks, Greife created a number of works devoted to the ideology and political philosophy of the Soviet Union, as well as the history of Soviet statehood and a number of subjects of contemporary Soviet reality. In 1937 he published the author of a sharply anti-Semitic and anti-Soviet book "Concentration Camps in the Soviet Union Run by Jews" (1937), which was subsequently reprinted several times under the title "Slave Labor in the USSR"[1]. On September 11, 1938, he joined the SS (number 997 868) as an Untersturmführer, by the end of his life he had the rank of Obersturmbannführer.""" quote on the leaders of the GPU: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779517750107701279/unknown.png quotes stating that the gulags were death camps: """For millions of people, concentration camps have been nothing but transit points into eternity. Here the death of millions could not be accounted for as murder and moreover, these death-sacrificed victims of Jewish tyranny could be exploited to the last drop of blood in the interest of a. "Socialistic State" before being freed by the merciful reaper-death.""" """In spite of the ever increasing masses of prisoners this "living material" very often is not sufficient to fulfill the fantastic "plans" of the government, because people die as a result of the horrible conditions that prevail in these concentration camps about as rapidly as new material can be delivered. And so, the Soviet government organizes and conducts from time to time "man-hunts" to provide new material. People are often arrested and exiled who even in the eyes of the government could not be in any sense regarded as "undesirables".""" ^ card from the end of the book: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779517136891674664/unknown.png ^ the modern book was published by a self-publication rag that publishes literally everything: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/779515621624381440/unknown.png #####c ##### # judeo-bolshevism: sovnarkom (SNK, Council of People's Commissars) #####o # sovnarkom ethnicities in reality actual Sovnarkom (November 1917: 8/15 Russian, 3/15 Ukranian, 2/15 Jew, 1/15 Polish, 1/15 Georgian, 1/15 unfilled): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/987940163437092894/unknown.png """В настоящий момент Совет Народных Комиссаров составляется из следующих лиц: Председатель Совета – Владимир Ульянов (Ленин). Народный комиссар по внутренним делам – А.И.Рыков. Земледелия – В.П.Милютин. Труда – А.Г.Шляпников. По делам военным и морским – комитет в составе: В.А.Овсеенко (Антонов), Н.В.Крыленко и П.Е.Дыбенко. По делам торговли и промышленности – В.П.Ногин. 21 Народного просвещения – А.В.Луначарский. Финансов – И.И.Скворцов (Степанов). По делам иностранным – Л.Д.Бронштейн (Троцкий). Юстиции – Г.И.Оппоков (Ломов). По делам продовольствия – И.А.Теодорович. Почт и телеграфов – Н.П.Авилов (Глебов). Председатель по делам национальностей – И.В.Джугашвили (Сталин). Пост народного комиссара по делам железнодорожным временно остается незамещенным.""" * Chairman: Lenin (quarter Jew, only known after his death) * Internal Affairs: Rykov (Russian) * Agriculture: Milyutin (Russian) * Labor: Shlyapnikov (Russian) * Military and Maritime Affairs: Ovseenko (Ukranian) Krylenko (?) , and Dybenko (Ukranian) * Trade and Industry: Nogin (Russian) * Education: Lunacharsky (Russian) * Finance: Skvortsov (Russian) . * Foreign Affairs: Trotsky (Jew) * Justice: Oppokov (Russian) * Food: Teodorovich (Polish) * Mail and Telegraphs: Glebov-Avilov (Russian) * Nationality Affairs: Stalin (Georgian) * Railways: Unfilled # robert wilton: claimed SNK claimed Sovnarkom (Soviet of People's Commissars: 17/22 Jew): * President Ulyanov (Lenin) Russian * Foreign Affairs Tchitcherine Russian * Nationalities Djugashvili (Stalin) Georgian * Agriculture Protian Armenian * Economic Council Lourie (Larine) Jew * Food Schlichter Jew * Army & Navy Bronstein (Trotsky) Jew * State Control Lander Jew * State Lands Kauffman Jew * Works V. Schmidt Jew * Social Relief E. Lelina (Knigissen) Jewess * Public Instruction Lounatcharsky Russian * Religions Spitzberg Jew * Interior Apfelbaum (Zinovief) Jew * Hygiene Anvelt Jew * Finance Isidore Goukovski Jew * Press Volodarski Jew * Elections Ouritski Jew * Justice I. Steinberg Jew * Refugees Fenigstein Jew * Refugees (assist.) Savitch Jew * Refugees (assist.) Zaslovski Jew #####c ##### # judeo-bolshevism: central committee (CPSU) #####o # central committee ethnicities in reality actual Central Committee (August 1917: 7/21 Russian, 7/21 Jewish, 2/21 Georgian, 2/21 Latvian, 2/21 Ukranian, 1/21 Polish): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/573217399382343700/unknown.png """206 Состав Центрального комитета. — В ЦК были избраны 21 член и 10 кандидатов (см. прим. 122 и 138). В члены ЦК были избраны: тт.: Артем (Сергеев Ф. А.), Берзин Я. А., Бухарин Н. И., Бубнов А. С., Дзержинский Ф. Э., Зиновьев Г. Е., Каменев Л. Б., Колонтай А. М., Крестинский Н. Н., Ленин В. И., Милютин В. П., Муранов М. К., Ногин В. П., Рыков А. И., Свердлов Я. М. Смилга И,. Т., Сокольнико-з Г. Я., Сталин И. В., Троцкий Л. Д., Урицкий М. С., Шаумян С. Из числа 10 кандидатов удалось установить 8. В кандидаты были избраны: тт. Ломов Г. И., Иоффе А. А., Стасова Е. Д., Яковлева В. Н., Джапаридзе| П. А. (Алеша), Киселев А. С., Преображенский Е. А. и Скрыпник Н. А.""" * Sergeyev (Russian) * Berzin (Latvian) * Bukharin (Russian) * Bubnov (Russian) * Dzerzhinsky (Polish) * Zinoviev (Jew) * Kamenev (Russian-Jew) * Kollontai (Ukranian-Finnish) * Krestinsky (Russian) * Lenin (quarter Jew, only known after his death) * Milyutin (Russian) * Muranov (Ukranian) * Nogin (Russian) * Rykov (Russian) * Sverdlov (Jew) * Smilga (Latvian) * Sokolnikov (Jew) * Stalin (Georgian) * Trotsky (Jew) * Uritsky (Jew) * Shaumyan (Georgian) # robert wilton: central committee: reality actual Central Committee (March 1918: 6/14 Jewish): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/572572349245685792/unknown.png """8. СОСТАВ ЦК РКП (б)Члены Центрального Комитета:Ленин, Троцкий, Свердлов, Зиновьев, Бухарин, Сокольников,Сталин, Крестинский, Смилга, Стасова, Лашевич, Шмидт,Дзержинский, Владимирский, Сергеев.Кандидаты:Иоффе, Киселев, Винтер, Урицкий, Стучка, Петровский,Ломов, Шляпников.""" * Trotsky (Jew) * Sverdlov (Jew) * Lenin (quarter Jew, only known after his death) * Zinoviev (Jew) * Bukharin (Russian) * Stalin (Georgian) * Dzerzhinsky (Polish) * Sokolnikov (Jew) * Krestinsky (Russian) * Smilga (Latvian) * Stasova (Russian) * Lashevich (Jew) * Schmidt (Latvian) * Vladimirsky (Russian) * Sergeev (Russian) * 6/14 Jewish (6/14/.04 = 11x overrepresented) * 4/14 Russian (4/14/.54 = .53x overrepresented = 1.9x underrepresented) * 2/14 Latvian (2/14/.015 = 9.5x overrepresented) * 1/14 Polish (1/14/.075 = 0.95 overrepresented = 1.05x underrepresented) * 1/14 Georgian (1/14/.016 = 4.5x overrepresented) # robert wilton: claimed central committee claimed Central Commitee (9/12 Jew, 3/12 Russian): * Bronstein (Trotsky) Jew * Apfelbaum (Zinovief) Jew * Lourie (Larine) Jew * Ouritski Jew * Volodarski Jew * Rosenfeldt (Kamanef) Jew * Smidovitch Jew * Sverdlof (Yankel) Jew * Nakhamkes (Steklof) Jew * Ulyanov (Lenin) Russian * Krylenko Russian * Lounatcharski Russian #####c ##### # judeo-bolshevism: robert wilton #####o # robert wilton: central government of the soviets claimed "Central Government of the Soviets" (doesn't actually exist, but if it did, it would be 6/12 Jews): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/573231624926396434/unknown.png * Rykov (Russian) * Bukharin (Russian) * Radek (Jew) * Trotsky (Jew) * Zinoviev (Jew) * Lenin (quarter Jew, only known after his death) * Krylenko (Russian) * Pokrovsky (Russian) * Sverdlov (Jew) * Kollontai (Ukranian-Finnish) * Kamenev (Russian-Jew) * Lunacharsky (Russian) #####c ##### # judeo-bolshevism: 1921 Senate Committee (common neo-Nazi source) #####o the "Senate Committee" results are literally just some insane dude's rambling -- he claims most Bolshevik leaders were Jews from Brooklyn, New York: """The latest startling information, given me by some one who says that there is good authority for it — and I ani to be given the exact figures later on and have them checked up properly by the proper authorities — is this, that in December, 1918. in the northern community of Petrograd, so-called — that is what they call that section of the Soviet regime under the presidency of the man known as Mr. Apfelbaum — out of 388 members, only 16 happened to be real Russians, and all the rest Jews, with the exception possibly of one man, who is a negro from America, who calls himself Prof. Gordon, and 265 of the members of this northern commune govern- ment, that is sitting in the old Smolny Institute, came from the lower East Side of New York — 265 of them. If that is true, and they are going to check it up for me — certain Eussians in New York who have been there and investigated the facts — I think that that fits into what you are driving at. In fact, I am very much impressed with this, that moving around here I find that certain Bolsheviki propagandists are nearly all Jews — apostate Jews. I have been in the so-called People's House, at 7 East Fifteenth Street, New York, which calls itself also the Rand School of Social Science, and I have visited that at least six times during the last eleven weeks or so, buying their literature, and some of the most seditious stuff I have ever found against our own Government, and 19 out of every 20 people I have seen there have been Jews.""" #####c ##### # judeo-bolshevism: who killed the tsar / czar (common neo-Nazi talking point) #####o list of people who killed the Czar: Ivan Plotnikov, history professor at the Maksim Gorky Ural State University, has established that the executioners were **Yakov Yurovsky**, **Grigory P. Nikulin**, **Mikhail A. Medvedev (Kudrin)**, **Peter Ermakov**, **Stepan Vaganov**, **Alexey G. Kabanov** (former soldier in the tsar's Life Guards and Chekist assigned to the attic machine gun),[48] **Pavel Medvedev**, **V. N. Netrebin**, and **Y. M. Tselms**. Filipp Goloshchyokin, a close associate of Yakov Sverdlov, being a military commissar of the Uralispolkom in Yekaterinburg, however did not actually participate, and two or three guards refused to take part. Yakov Mikhailovich Yurovsky: raised Jewish, converted Lutheran Yakov Mikhailovich Yurovsky was the eighth of ten children born to Mikhail Yurovsky, a glazier, and his wife Ester Moiseevna (1848–1919), a seamstress. He was born on 19 June [O.S. 7 June] 1878 in the Siberian city of Tomsk, Russia. The Yurovsky family were Jewish. The historian Helen Rappaport writes that the young Yurovsky studied the Talmud in his early youth, while the family seems to have later attempted to distance themselves from their Jewish roots; this may have been prompted by the prejudice toward Jews frequently exhibited in Russia at the time.[1] Shortly before fully devoting himself to the cause of revolution, in the early twentieth century Yurovsky converted to Lutheranism.[1] Grigory Petrovich Nikulin: raised in a parish school: Nikulin was born and raised in Zvenigorodka, Kiev province, Russian Empire. He came from a lower-class family. His father Pyotr Iossiffovich (Пётр Иосифович) was a bricklayer and mother Anna Ivanovna a housewife. At the age of 9 Grigory started attending parish school at Zvenigorod church, which he enjoyed immensely. Education was interrupted by his family's disastrous financial situation. After which he started working in a local blacksmith shop. In the spring of 1909 family sold their house in Zvenigorodka and moved to a nearby small town of Uman. At the age of 16 Grigory moved out of parent's house and became a bricklayer. He joined a local social democratic club in Uman in 1913. Soon he was deported from Kiev province and moved to Kazan. Mikhail Aleksandrovich Medvedev-Kudrin: raised in a parish school: В 1900 году закончил церковно-приходскую школу в селе Изгар, в 1900—1908 годах жил в Чистополе, где начал учиться в школе ремесленных учеников, но после второго класса был вынужден бросить учёбу из-за тяжёлого материального положения семьи[1]. [In 1900 he graduated from a parish school in the village of Izgar. In 1900-1908 he lived in Chistopol, where he began to study at a school of artisanal students, but after the second grade he was forced to drop out of school due to the difficult financial situation of his family.[1]] Pyotr Zakharovich Ermakov: raised in a parish school: Pyotr Zakharovich Ermakov was born on 13 December [O.S. 1 December] 1884, and raised in and around the Verkh-Isetskiy workhouse in Yekaterinburg, Russian Empire. Ermakov graduated from the local parish school, working thereafter as a metal craftsman, and between 1909 and 1912, is listed as living in Vologodskaya Province. Pavel Spiridonovich Medvedev: unknown: #####c ##### # jewish overrepresentation in the civil rights movement: no hard evidence seems to exist #####o # studies with no citations or hard evidence Schultz 2020: Jews made up 1/3 of the 1000 white Northern volunteers during the Freedom Summer: """Of the 1,000 white northern student volunteers who came South for Freedom Summer, a third were Jewish. Though the women tended to have more activism experience than the men, work assignments were gendered. While 20 percent of the white women volunteers requested the much more dangerous voter registration work, only 9 percent were so assigned. A higher percentage of women were asked to teach in the Freedom Schools, though they often joined voter registration workers in the evening for canvassing.""" Itzkovitz 2011: Jews made up 2/3 of the 1000 white Northern volunteers during the Freedom Summer: """In reality, while the number of whites who worked for the civil rights struggle were disproportionately Jewish (Northern Jews, for instance, comprised nearly two thirds of the whites who traveled South during Freedom Summer) these activists, of course, made up only a small portion of American Jews.""" # possible sources of hard evidence https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1035288625535004743/unknown.png """. Schultz, Going South, 18; Webb, Fight against Fear, 80. 145. Webb, Fight against Fear, 150–151. 146. Nussbaum, oral history, 29. 147. Allen Krause, “The Southern Rabbi and Civil Rights” (M.A. thesis, Hebrew Union CollegeJewish ...""""""M.A. thesis, University of Memphis, May 2007. Krause, Allen. “The Southern Rabbi and Civil Rights.” M.A. thesis, """" # commonly-cited example by anti-racist jewish groups Mississippi Burning: in 1964, the KKK murdered three men in Philadelphia, Mississippi: James Early Chaney, Andrew Goodman, and Michael Schwerner; each was participating in Freedom Summer and was a member of the Council of Federated Organizations (COFO) and the Congress of Racial Equality (CORE); Goodman and Schwerner were both Jewish: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1035286404575543377/unknown.png """However, the event had the opposite of the intended effect: instead of dissuading activists, it caught the attention of the nation. President Lyndon B. Johnson and civil rights activists used the event to galvanize support for the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which was signed July 2nd. Thanks to an informant, the bodies were found and in November the FBI charged 21 men with depriving the three activists of their civil rights. The more traditional charge of murder, which is a state crime, was not possible because Mississippi refused to prosecute them. Even then, a judge who was a segregationist dismissed the indictments, which had to be overruled by the Supreme Court. Seven of the men were finally convicted in 1967, becoming the first ever conviction for the killing civil rights workers in the state. Their sentences were from three to 10 years and none of them ended up serving more than six. 41 years later, Mississippi finally charged someone for the murders, Killen, and he was convicted of three counts of manslaughter with three consecutive 20 year sentences.""" #####c ##### # involvement in american politics #####o # high intermarriage rates (ie, not "multiculturalism for three") Jewish intermarriage rates are very high, and rising: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640989291085824020/jew-overview-5.png # polls of american jews on israel american jews poll on israel: https://www.ajc.org/news/ajc-comparative-surveys-of-israeli-us-jews-show-some-serious-divisions [unformatted, unread] american jews poll on israel: http://www.pewforum.org/2013/10/01/chapter-5-connection-with-and-attitudes-towards-israel/ [unformatted, unread] another poll: http://www.people-press.org/2018/01/23/republicans-and-democrats-grow-even-further-apart-in-views-of-israel-palestinians/ # representation in college atheists in college: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/college-freshmen-are-less-religious-than-ever/ [UNFORMATTED] ^ https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/The-most-heavily-Jewish-US-college-and-other-facts-about-Jews-at-American-colleges-437701 [UNFORMATTED] ^ https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2010/07/16/kevin-macdonald-jewish-overrepresentation-at-elite-universities-explained/ [UNFORMATTED] ^ https://ideasanddata.wordpress.com/2018/04/24/the-jewish-question-an-empirical-examiniation/ [UNFORMATTED] # todo unformatted unread Foxman 2007: The Deadliest Lies Foxman 2010: Jews and Money Feingold 2008: Doherty 2013: The disproportionately Jewish backgrounds of the executives of the studios and the workers Enikolopov and Petrova 2015: Chapter 17 - Media Capture: Empirical Evidence #####c #####c ##### # # terrorism # #####o ##### # efficacy of terrorism is low #####o # study: terrorism in war: ineffective Fortna 2015: relative to civil wars led by nonterrorist rebel groups, terrorist rebel groups were 15x less likely to achieve victory and 2x less likely to reach an agreement with the government: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/656629320332083210/unknown.png """Much of the data come from Cunningham, Gleditsch, and Salehyan’s Non-State Actor data set (hereafter CGS),77 which builds on and expands the well-known Uppsala-PRIO Armed Conflict Data (hereafter UCDP)78 by identifying each nonstate (or rebel) actor.79""""""Merging the Stanton and time varying CGS data yields 104 cases and 566 observations over time.82 The cases are listed in Table A1 in the appendix.83""" Fortna 2015: relative to nondemocratic government, civil wars led by terrorist rebel groups against democratic governments less (rather than more) likely to fail, but not more likely to succeed (or: terrorism is better at elongating wars against democracies than nondemocracies, but not at actually winning them): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/656629824219119617/unknown.png ^ Fortna 2015: list of groups and categorization is in APPENDIX The Cases. (government vs. rebels & year ended) # study: terrorism in general: ineffective Abrahms 2006: from a dataset of 42 terrorist groups, terrorism is rarely successful (7%, 3/42) or partly successful (17%, 7/42); more successful against military targets (30%, 3/10) than civilian (0%, 0/18); more successful with limited goals (43%, 3/7) than maximalist or other goals (0%, 0/17 and 0/9): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/656620760575770624/unknown.png ^ Abrahms 2006: list of terrorist groups: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/886357703805513738/unknown.png Jones and Libicki 2008: among the 648 groups in the RAND-MIPT database of terrorist groups, 7% ended after defeat by military; 10% after victory; 40% after defeat by police; 43% after entering politics: TODO https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1160611505671262329/image.png?ex=65354ab2&is=6522d5b2&hm=fa52a9a552e9dd0ba8062066883fb827a23a6fbd2c33baea8be4a385b087619f& """See National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism, MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Base: A Comprehensive Databank of Global Terrorist Incidents and Organizations, Oklahoma City, Okla., ongoing since 2003.""" de Mesquita and Dickson 2007: TODO: Gould and Klor 2010: TODO: Wood and Kathman 2013: TODO: # example: leftist revolution in peru: politically ineffective Cameron 2019: the activities of the Sendero Luminosa [Shining Path] weakened the left and strengthened the authoritarian neoliberal government of Fujimori: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/990266701750890596/unknown.png """Two lessons are apparent. First, the internal confl ict infl uenced the development of Peru’s constitutional order in two ways: it created the crisis that enabled a new constitution to be written, and it weakened the Left and popular organizations necessary to contest neo liberalism.1 Analysts agree that the 1993 constitution was more authoritarian and neoliberal than its 1979 predecessor (Rubio Correa 2012; Tei vai nen 2002; Planas 1999; García Belaunde 1996). It rolled back social features of the 1979 constitution and facilitated the concentration of power in the hands of the executive branch of government.2 It also proved remarkably enduring, in large measure because it aligned Peru with neoliberal precepts. Peru did not emulate other countries in the region that undertook constitutional reforms (often called republican “refounding”) as part of a left turn (Cameron and Hershberg 2010; Levitsky and Roberts 2011; Ellner 2014). One could argue that the Shining Path foreclosed the possibility of a left turn by creating an emergency situation which resulted in a constitution that locked in a neoliberal economic model and, with it, a correspondingly limited electoral democracy.3""" Munoz 2019: the ambivalent position of the main leftist alliance on revolutionary violence made it easy to connect them with the revolutionaries, and voters did exactly that: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/990281165543968808/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/990281180534427709/unknown.png # terrorism in israel: politically ineffective Berrebi and Klor 2008: areas in Israel with higher amounts of terrorism were more likely to support right-wing candidates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/890360770112655420/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/890360782221619281/unknown.png Getmansky and Zeitzoff 2014: constituencies within the rocket range of the Gaza Strip (and therefore Hamas) causally became 2-6 pp more likely to vote for right-wing parties: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/892066085073993798/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/976256905964060723/unknown.png # Abrams 2006: example 1, from Russia-Chechnya war: """[1991-6:] In 1991 Chechnya's first president, Dzhokar Dudayev, took the additional step of declaring independence. Federal forces invaded Chechnya in December 1994 to reestablish control in the breakaway republic. For the next twenty months, Russian federal forces battled Chechen guerrillas in an asymmetric war based in Chechnya.""""""From the onset of military operations until the cease-fire in August 1996, some 70 percent of Russians opposed the war.61 Disdain for the war manifested itself most clearly in public attitudes toward Defense Minister Pavel Grachev. Opinion polls rated his approval at only 3 percent, just a few points lower than the Russian public's support for Yeltsin's handling of the Chechen problem in general.6""""""[1999-on:] A large bomb was detonated on the ground floor of an apartment building in southeast Moscow, killing 94 civilians. On September 13, another large bomb blew up an apartment building on the Kashmirskoye highway, killing 118 civilians. On September 16, a truck bomb exploded outside a nine-story apartment complex in the southern Russian city of Volgodonsk, killing 17 civilians. The Kremlin quickly fingered the Chechens as the perpetrators.7""""""Polls conducted after the terrorist attacks showed that Russians were almost twice as likely to believe that Chechen motives were now to "kill Russians," "bring Russia to its knees," "destabilize the situation in Russia," "destroy and frighten Russian society," and "bring chaos to Russian society" than to achieve "the independence of Chechnya."77""""""Popular support for war remained remarkably stable after the bombings; six months after they occurred, 73 percent of Russians favored "the advance of federal forces into Chechnya," compared with only 19 percent of Russians who wanted "peaceful negotiations with the Chechen leadership."83 Since 2000, support for President Putin's Chechnya policy has not dropped below 67 percent.8""" ^ Abrams 2006: example 2, from the first intifada: """The mass uprising in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank was an exceptionally moderate period in the history of Palestinian terrorism. The revolt from December 1987 to January 1991 killed only twenty Israeli civilians.""""""Edy Kaufman has noted that "the primary purpose of the first intifada was to communicate to Israelis the need to end the occupation of the territories."113 Terrorist acts, even in small numbers, interfered with the message. Throughout the intifada, only 15 percent of Palestinian demonstrations were violent.114 Yet an absolute majority of Israelis (80 percent) believed that the means employed by the Palestinians to protest Israeli rule were "mainly violent." Of the violent Palestinian acts, the vast majority consisted of rock throwing against the Israel Defense Forces in the territories, with few incidences of terrorism inside the Green Line. An even broader consensus of Israelis (93 percent) felt that the intifada was directed "both towards civilians and towards the army."'11""""""Compelling evidence suggests, however, that terrorism informed the Israeli view of Palestinian objectives. In a fascinating study based on the polling data contained in the Guttman report, Kaufman observed that the respondents who perceived Palestinian tactics as "mainly violent" were more likely to believe that the Palestinian goal was to "destroy Israel." Conversely, the more Israelis perceived Palestinian tactics as nonviolent, the more they believed the goal was to liberate the territories. The positive correlation between perceived Palestinian terrorism and maximalist objectives existed independent of the respondents' political affiliation, suggesting that the association was not a function of their preexisting political attitudes.11""" #####c ##### # cost of terrorism: large #####o # economic cost GPI 2015: violence containment (including military spending, fighting violent crime, homicide, civil conflict, and terrorism) amounts to 13% of world GDP: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/886362742771044422/unknown.png GPI 2015: more urbanized countries tend to have higher peacefulness: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/886363090206203934/unknown.png #####c ##### # left wing vs right wing terrorism #####o # bias in media coverage of terrorism Signal AI: before Christchurch, the media was 3x more likely to label an Islamist attack as "terrorism" than a far-right attack: Media coverage of Muslim and far-right terrorism: key takeaways """In over 200, 000 articles on 11 different attacks, Islamist extremists were labelled terrorists 78.4% of the time, whereas far-right extremists were only identified as terrorists 23.6% of the time.""" # levels of left-wing vs right-wing terrorism CSIS dataset: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/737306205407412264/unknown.png """In analyzing fatalities from terrorist attacks, religious terrorism has killed the largest number of individuals—3,086 people—primarily due to the attacks on September 11, 2001, which caused 2,977 deaths.10 The magnitude of this death toll fundamentally shaped U.S. counterterrorism policy over the past two decades. In comparison, right-wing terrorist attacks caused 335 deaths, left-wing attacks caused 22 deaths, and ethnonationalist terrorists caused 5 deaths. To evaluate the ongoing threat from different types of terrorists, however, it is useful to consider the proportion of fatalities attributed to each type of perpetrator annually. In 14 of the 21 years between 1994 and 2019 in which fatal terrorist attacks occurred, the majority of deaths resulted from right-wing attacks. In eight of these years, right-wing attackers caused all of the fatalities, and in three more—including 2018 and 2019—they were responsible for more than 90 percent of annual fatalities.11 Therefore, while religious terrorists caused the largest number of total fatalities, right-wing attackers were most likely to cause more deaths in a given year""" ECDB dataset: left-wing extremists aren't murderers; right-wing extremists are: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/455933449665118208/unknown.png White supremacists, anti-government extremists, radical Islamist extremists, and other ideologically inspired domestic violent extremists have been active in the United States for decades. [....] [F]rom September 12, 2001 through December 31, 2016, attacks by domestic or “homegrown” violent extremists in the United States resulted in 225 fatalities, according to the ECDB. Of these, 106 were killed by far right violent extremists in 62 separate incidents, and 119 were victims of radical Islamist violent extremists in 23 separate incidents. Figure 1 shows the locations and number of fatalities involved in these incidents. A detailed list of the incidents can be found in appendix II. **According to the ECDB, activities of far left wing violent extremist groups did not result in any fatalities during this period.** # datasets: ECDB leftist extremists have killed almost nobody in the past 30 years; rightist extremists have killed hundreds: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/455934446193868800/unknown.png ^ database: #####c ##### # white nationalist terrorism / right-wing extremism / reactionary terrorism #####o # motivations 1/3 of white extremist killers explicitly cite other white extremist killers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/571798691103506432/unknown.png An analysis by The New York Times of recent terrorism attacks found that at least a third of white extremist killers since 2011 were inspired by others who perpetrated similar attacks, professed a reverence for them or showed an interest in their tactics. # polls the troops think white nationalism is a problem: Nearly 42 percent of non-white troops who responded to the survey said they have personally experienced examples of white nationalism in the military, versus about 18 percent of white service members. When asked whether white nationalists pose a threat to national security, 30 percent of respondents labeled it a significant danger, more than many international hot spots, like Syria (27 percent), Pakistan (25 percent), Afghanistan (22 percent) and Iraq (17 percent). [....] More than 60 percent of troops who took the survey said they would support activating the National Guard or reserves to handle civil unrest arising from white nationalist activities like the Charlottesville event. # incidents: far-right terrorisms, murders, and attempted murders in North America 17 June 2019: Incel, white nationalist Brian Clyde was shot dead while trying to shoot up a mall: 27 April 2019: White nationalist John Earnest killed 1 and injured 3 in the Chabad of Poway: Earnest published an open letter on 8chan that claimed Jews were causing the "meticulously planned genocide of the European race": 15 February 2019: White nationalist Christopher Hasson, Coast Guard officer, was arrested with 15 firearms, 1,000 rounds of ammo, and a list of prominent Democratic politicians: 19-20 January 2019: Police arrested Brian Colaneri, Vincent Vetromile, Andrew Crysel, and one minor, were arrested with 3 bombs and 23 firearms and a plan to attack the Muslim town of Islamberg: 02 November 2018: Scott Beierle killed 2 people and injured 4 people in the Tallahassee Hot Yoga before killing himself: Beierle identified as an incel and opposed interracial relationships: 27 October 2018: Robert Bowers shouted "all Jews must die" before shooting 16 people at the Tree of Life synagogue: On Gab, he wrote "Trump is a globalist, not a nationalist. There is no MAGA as long as there is a k\*ke infestation." and "It's the filthy Evil Jews Bringing Filfy evil Muslims into the country! Stop the K\*kes then Worry about the Muslims." 22-26 October 2018: Cesar Sayoc mailed "bombs" to 2 CNN employees and 10 Democratic officials: Sayoc owned an insane kookmobile: He was a Registered Republican and hated black people and gay people: 23 April 2018: Alek Minassian targeted pedestrians with a van and killed 10 and injured 16: In a Facebook post before the attack, Minassian wrote: "The Incel Rebellion has already begun! We will overthrow all the Chads and Stacys! All hail the Supreme Gentleman Elliot Rodger!": 14 February 2018: White supremacist Nikolas Cruz killed 17 and injured 16 in a school shooting: 02 February 2018: Atomwaffen Division member Samuel Woodward was arraigned for the murder of Blaze Bernstein (a gay, Jewish student). Bernstein had been stabbed over 20 times and buried in a pit dug in the forest: Atomwaffen members celebrated the murder in leaked Discord messages: 09 January 2018: Atomwaffen Division member Brandon Russell was convicted for possession explosives and radioactive material. Russell intended to bomb synagogues and a nuclear power plant. Russell had a framed photo of Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh in his bedroom: Atomwaffen members have shared documentation on explosives production in leaked Discord messages: 23 December 2017: Neo-Nazi Nicholas Giampa killed his lover's parents, Buckley Kuhn-Fricker and Scott Fricker, because they didn't accept his ideology: 07 December 2017: White supremacist William Atchison went into Aztec High School and killed 2 students before killing himself: 26 May 2017: White supremacist Jeremy Christian stabbed three men, two of whom died. The men had tried to stop Christian from harassing two teenage girls (one black, one Muslim) on a light rail train. 22 May 2017: White supremacist Sean Urbanski fatally stabbed Lieutenant Richard Collins (black) because of his race: 20 March 2017: White supremacist James Jackson drove to NYC with a sword with intent to kill black men. Jackson fatally stabbed 66-year-old Timothy Caughman, who had been collecting cans for recycling: 29 January 2017: Alexandre Bissonnette killed 6 and injured 19 attendees to the Islamic Cultural Centre of Quebec City: Bissonnette identified as white nationalist, frequently spoke against Muslims and feminists online, and checked Ben Shapiro's Twitter account before the shooting: 16 August 2016: White supremacist Daniel Rowe non-fatally stabbed an interracial couple; afterward, he told police he did it because the police "couldn’t hurt the black people on the street" like he could: 1 October 2015: Chris Harper-Mercer killed 9 and injured 8 people at Umpqua Community College before killing himself: Harper-Mercer frequently used 4chan and posted to /r9k/ the day before the shooting. Harper-Mercer wrote that he was mad that he was a virgin and that black men were to blame: 17 June 2015: Dylann Roof killed 9 and injured 3 in Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston: Roof frequently posed with apartheid paraphernalia published a manifesto calling for white nationalism: 23 May 2014: Incel Elliot Rodger killed 6 and injured 14 before killing himself in Isla Vista: 13 April 2014: KKK member and neo-Nazi Frazier Miller killed 3 people in the Jewish Community Center of Greater Kansas City and in the Village Shalom 05 August 2012: White supremacist Michael Page killed 6 and injured 4 at a Sikh temple in Oak Creek: #####c ##### # isis #####o # motivations the proportion of foreign Muslims joining ISIS is positively correlated with GDP per capita and Human Development Index, negatively correlated with Gini Index (higher=more unequal), not correlated with unemployment, negatively correlated with political rights, negatively correlated with ethnic fractionalization (higher=more diverse), negatively correlated with linguistic fractionalization, and not correlated with religious fractionalization: -- however, many of these relationships are not significant (see tables 7 and 8): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/689520949715927040/unknown.png # public opinion polls few Muslims worldwide support ISIS -- the most supportive country was Nigeria, where 14% of Muslims supported ISIS: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/731262198328066098/FT_15.png #####c #####c ##### # # artificial intelligence AI # #####o ##### # artificial intelligence timelines #####o # how soon will AI be able to do human tasks? Grace et al 2018: among 352 artificial intelligence researchers surveyed, the median researcher thought that AI would achieve human performance within X years for Y task: 5, fold laundry; 10, explain own actions in games; 15, retail salesperson; 30, surgeon; 40, math research; 80, AI research; 120, all human jobs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1135231923120250881/image.png #####c ##### # # religion and religiosity in general # #####o ##### # scope and depth #####o # over countries religiosity by country: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/588361504156549120/unknown.png # among scientists in the USA, scientists are disproportionately (~41%, 10x more likely) atheist: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641979831013212160/Scientists-and-Belief-1.png the same trend holds woldwide, albeit less so: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/736367077694373898/unknown.png # among philosphers in the USA, philosophers are disproportionately (~72%, 18x more likely) atheist: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/736340419062923364/unknown.png #####c ##### # religiosity reduces education efficacy and economic growth #####o # pseudo-causal evidence: countries with Andersen and Bentzen 2022 preprint: religious names https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951909871941484564/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951909695709384744/unknown.png ^ validation: Andersen and Bentzen 2022 preprint: earthquakes increase religiosity; religious names were more common among babies born <30 years or less after an earthquake: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951604631769870347/unknown.png ^ validation: Andersen and Bentzen 2022 preprint: people with religious names were significantly more likely to be priests and theologians and people with non-religious names were significantly more likely to be engineers, chemists, and scientists: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951909871941484564/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951909695709384744/unknown.png ^ validation: Andersen and Bentzen 2022 preprint: strong correlation between lower religiosity and higher economic growth, as proxied by growth of urban centers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951915191539478569/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951915118806069278/unknown.png ^ validation: Andersen and Bentzen 2022 preprint: this correlation was even stronger after 1800, when upper-tail knowledge production (ie, cutting-edge science and technical work) became increasingly important for economic growth: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951916688620806205/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951917547018657912/unknown.png Khalil and Panza 2021: todo reread xxx: Squicciarini (2020) documented that French areas that were more religious in the late 19th century were less likely to introduce new technical curriculum in schools, thus forgoing skills essential for experiencing the second industrial revolution in France ^ todo reread xxx: For instance, the emphasis on tradition in most religions may discourage certain behaviors such as innovation and creativity, which are otherwise beneficial to economic growth (B´enabou et al., forthc). B´enabou, Ticchi, and Vindigni illustrate the potential contesting between the worldviews of science and religion in a theoretical model, where the recurrent arrival of scientific discoveries generate productivity gains, but at the same time threaten to erode religious beliefs by contradicting aspects of religious doctrines. As a result, religious elites have incentives to curb the development of science and new ideas. Examples abound of such conflicts, from the trial of Galilei in 1633 to President George W. Bush’s restrictions on federal funding for embryonic stem-cell research. In support of the model, Benabou, Ticchi, and Vindigni uncover that contemporary countries or US states that are more religious have fewer patents per capita. An alternative model may explain the same tendency with substitution between religion and science; if intellectual resources can be used for either religious or scientific studies, religiously interested individuals may be more inclined to engage in religious studies, thus crowding out the study of science. The proposition is not that religion and science cannot go hand-in-hand. Indeed, there are several examples of great contributors to science who were deeply religious - perhaps most famously Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727). Also, some of Europe’s largest universities - Bologna and Oxford for instance - were established by monasteries. Thus, it remains a matter of empirical testing whether religion and science contested or complemented one another. ^ todo reread xxx: Along the same lines, Cantoni & Yuchtman (2013) argue that the introduction of a new, productive form of human capital, such as the emergence of modern science, depends on whether the government or church see the new knowledge as threatening to their position of power. The authors argue that Islamic elites who controlled educational institutions in the Middle Ages initially promoted the study of logic and science, because the gains from spreading these skills (more converts to Islam) outweighed the costs (potential criticism of the religious elites). This period of elite support for scientific study saw the flourishing of Islamic society. However, as Islam took over in the Middle East, the gains to elites from the study of logic and science declined. Elites started to oppress the study of science, and the Muslim world fell behind. Chaney (2016) provides econometric support for these ideas. He links the decline in scientific and technological production in the Muslim world in the late Medieval period to the extensive spread of madrasas, educational centers where Islamic law was taught. Using data on book production during the period 800-1800, Chaney documents a sharply rising trend in the proportion of religious books written, accompanied by a drop in original and scientific-technical books. With our data, we can test empirically whether something similar occurred within Europe. # country-wide correlations between religiosity and education: negative Stoet 2017: more-religious countries have worse scientific education performance; this effect is partially explained by HDI levels: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/736337408848691282/unknown.png # country-wide correlations between religiosity and life expectancy, infant mortality, compulsory education: negative Cinagrelli 2019: across countries 1981-2015, higher religiosity (how often attend religious services) and Muslim majority population correlates with lower life expectancy, higher infant mortality, and lower years of compulsory education: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/743864999356661821/unknown.png """“How often do you attend religious services?” The Attendance variable included in our analysis is the percentage of respondents in each nation who claimed to attend services at least once per month.""""""“Do you consider yourself to be a religious person?” Respondents could respond “yes,” “no,” “atheist,” or “don’t know.” The variable labeled Religious Person in the regression tables below is the percentage of respondents in each country who answered “yes.”""""""[E]ach country that was more than 50 percent Muslim was coded as ONE. All other countries are coded as ZERO.""" #####c ##### # religion and psychology #####o # intelligence and intuition Zuckerman 2013: in meta-study of 63 studies, higher religiosity correlates with lower intelligence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/886791981660008458/unknown.png Zuckerman 2013: the negative correlation between religiosity and intelligence may be explained by the fact that more-religious people think more "intuitively" (fast, unsystematic) while less religious people think more "analytically" (slow, systematic) # addiction religion, gambling, and getting high all produce the same mental state: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641985343167528983/psns_a_1257437_f0002_c.png # altruism and religion in children, religiosity correlates negatively with altruism (positively with selfishness): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641985357671563275/gr2.png # suicide a meta-study of found that religiosity correlated with substantially lower suicide rates (rates 1/3), but only among Western samples: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/736367513524371516/unknown.png ^ discussion of some of the literature: """The relationship between religion and suicide risk has been an important research question from the earliest days of suicide research (Durkheim, 1897/2010). Over the past 10 years, research on this question has produced mixed results. Some studies have reported that rates of suicide attempt and suicidal ideation are lower among persons who have a religious affiliation (Carli et al., 2014; Dervic et al., 2004; Dervic et al., 2011; Kralovec et al., 2014; Kukoyi et al., 2010; Spencer et al., 2012), those who attend religious services more frequently (Blackmore et al., 2008; Caribe et al., 2012; Hoffman and Marsiglia, 2014; Kaslow et al., 2004; Langille et al., 2012; Nkansah-Amankra et al., 2012; Rasic et al., 2009; Rasic et al., 2011a; Rasic et al., 2011b; Robins and Fiske, 2009; Robinson et al., 2012; Rushing et al., 2013; Sisask et al., 2010; Taliaferro et al., 2009; Taylor et al., 2011), and those who say religion is important in their lives (Albert et al., 2005; Rasic et al., 2011a). However, these findings exist alongside a large number of studies finding no relationship between religion and suicide risk (Birkholz et al., 2004; Chatters et al., 2011; Hamdan et al., 2012; Huguelet et al., 2007; Le et al., 2012; Nonnemaker et al., 2003; Stroppa and Moreira-Almeida, 2013; Tran Thi Thanh et al., 2006; Young et al., 2011; Zhang et al., 2006) and a few studies suggesting religious characteristics can sometimes be a risk factor (Mihaljevic et al., 2012; Stratta et al., 2012; Xie et al., 2012; Zhang and Xu, 2007; Zhao et al., 2012). Importantly, most of these studies did not assess clinical samples, and only 4 explicitly enrolled persons with mood disorders (Dervic et al., 2004; Dervic et al., 2011; Rushing et al., 2013; Stroppa and Moreira-Almeida, 2013) This leaves unanswered questions not only about the relationship between religion and suicide risk, but also more specifically about that relationship for adults with depression.""" #####c ##### # politics and religion #####o # political views in the us athiests are the demographic most likely to describe themselves as liberal (56%) and least likely as consevative (10%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/922631128693739590/PF-2015-11-03_RLS_II-60.png just 4% of atheists voted for Donald Trump in 2016: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/443955801560973313/unknown.png # democracy-autocracy Cingranelli 2019: across countries 1981-2015, higher religiosity (how often attend religious services) and Muslim majority population correlates with lower respect for human rights (free assembly & association, free & fair elections, free speech): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/743867913416605696/unknown.png """“How often do you attend religious services?” The Attendance variable included in our analysis is the percentage of respondents in each nation who claimed to attend services at least once per month.""""""“Do you consider yourself to be a religious person?” Respondents could respond “yes,” “no,” “atheist,” or “don’t know.” The variable labeled Religious Person in the regression tables below is the percentage of respondents in each country who answered “yes.”""""""[E]ach country that was more than 50 percent Muslim was coded as ONE. All other countries are coded as ZERO.""" in relation to terrorism, the groups most opposed to suspending government checks and balances, censoring of the press, and banning Muslim immigration are the nonreligious, Jews and Muslims: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/576668954471301123/unknown.png # tolerance-tradition: overall Gaskins 2013: except at very low HDI, higher religiosity correlates with higher conservatism (on left-right self-placement, divorce, euthanasia, abortion, suicide, and homosexuality): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/886783394766286948/unknown.png # tolerance-tradition: sexism Cingranelli 2019: across countries 1981-2015, higher religiosity (how often attend religious services) and Muslim majority population correlate with worse women's rights (right to vote, run for office, proportion of offices held by women) and worse protections for female domestic violence victims: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/743869011023888454/unknown.png Hannover 2018: among German adolescents, religiosity is associated with sexism, fundamentalism, right-wing authoritarianism, and social dominance orientation among atheists, Muslims, and Christians: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568522347250843669/unknown.png # tolerance-tradition: racism in the USA, religiosity is associated with racism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641710508465979436/unknown.png # status quo justification Shepherd 2016: among the religious, mentioning religion increases the perceived trustworthiness of politicians: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/540435143127728129/pops12353-fig-0001-m.png Shepherd 2016: among the religious who believe the USA is in decline, belief that God has a plan for the USA increases support for existing political systems: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/886787486880247868/unknown.png # humor Silvia 2021: right-wing authoritarians were rated as less funny in this study: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/808478896298524672/unknown.png #####c ##### # health #####o there were 140 documented fatalities from faith healing between 1975 and 1995: #####c ##### # # christianity # #####c ##### # leftist / progressive aspects of christianity #####o # leftist bible quotes James 5:1-6, NIV: Warning to Rich Oppressors: Warning to Rich Oppressors: 5 Now listen, you rich people, weep and wail because of the misery that is coming on you. 2 Your wealth has rotted, and moths have eaten your clothes. 3 Your gold and silver are corroded. Their corrosion will testify against you and eat your flesh like fire. You have hoarded wealth in the last days. 4 Look! The wages you failed to pay the workers who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord Almighty. 5 You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves in the day of slaughter.[a] 6 You have condemned and murdered the innocent one, who was not opposing you. # blame yourself for lust, not women Matthew 5:27-30, NIV: pluck out your eye: 27 “You have heard that it was said, ‘You shall not commit adultery.’[a] 28 But I tell you that anyone who looks at a woman lustfully has already committed adultery with her in his heart. 29 If your right eye causes you to stumble, gouge it out and throw it away. It is better for you to lose one part of your body than for your whole body to be thrown into hell. 30 And if your right hand causes you to stumble, cut it off and throw it away. It is better for you to lose one part of your body than for your whole body to go into hell. # christianity and debt forgiveness / debt jubilees Sanders 2020: Jesus Christ supported debt jubilees; the "Our Father" prayer was intended as a reference to both debt forgiveness and sin forgiveness: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1003483607484080308/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1003484757981675520/unknown.png Jubilee in the Bible Koehler: early christians were communalists: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1164300571478605917/image.png?ex=6542b667&is=65304167&hm=c6e4fb38d4322d698dbda3e6798bec183bd29de372d70866833c0782c18c5d5b& The Economics of Property Rights in Early and Medieval Christianity """The notion that indigence might generate a legitimate claim to succour never entered into a donor’s deliberations: poor relief, a core purpose of welfare, never evolved in Roman philanthropy. [....] Christians adopted approaches to welfare that were new to Roman eyes. The very first community of Christians, in first-century Jerusalem, hosted free communal meals; deacons were appointed to oversee distribution of the common fund that had been endowed by wealthy members of the congregation though property sales (Acts 4–6). [....] Tertullian bracketed his community’s income, deposita pietatis, with corresponding spending on beneficiaries, alumni confessionis. [....] Christianity was on the pathway to a model of society where, according to Andrea Giardina (2007, p. 768), ‘poverty assumed a central position, in the collective imagination as in the redistribution of wealth’. [....] Ambrose was an unbending defender of property rights, in particular of the right of the church to own property, quite logically so because such rights were a prerequisite for dispensing benevolentia. [....] Sermons such as these had practical implications for welfare provision. Lists of paupers eligible for support were compiled, called matricula; according to John Chrysostomos, in Antioch the number came to 3,000 (John Chrysostomos 1888, pp. 706–7).""" #####c ##### # bullshit bible quotes #####o # Bible quote: Jesus Christ was a debate bro Christians should be "ready to make a defense to everyone who asks you to give an account" for Christ's existence: (1 Peter 3:14-16, NASB): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016239121766825985/unknown.png """14 But even if you should suffer for the sake of righteousness, you [a]are blessed. And do not fear their intimidation, and do not be in dread, 15 but sanctify Christ as Lord in your hearts, always being ready to make a defense to everyone who asks you to give an account for the hope that is in you, but with gentleness and respect; 16 and keep a good conscience so that in the thing in which you are slandered, those who disparage your good behavior in Christ will be put to shame.""" # Bible quote: the day zombies stormed Jerusalem literalist Christians believe that a bunch of zombies came up when Jesus was resurrected, and these zombies were widely seen in Jerusalem: (Matthew 27:50-54, NIV): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/983588842399473714/unknown.png """50 And when Jesus had cried out again in a loud voice, he gave up his spirit. 51 At that moment the curtain of the temple was torn in two from top to bottom. The earth shook, the rocks split 52 and the tombs broke open. The bodies of many holy people who had died were raised to life. 53 They came out of the tombs after Jesus’ resurrection and[a] went into the holy city and appeared to many people. 54 When the centurion and those with him who were guarding Jesus saw the earthquake and all that had happened, they were terrified, and exclaimed, “Surely he was the Son of God!”""" Carrier 2017: quip about the subject: "if we read that in any other text, you'd say, well, that did not actually happen": """The horde of undead: I don't know if you remember, but in the Gospel of Matthew, after Jesus dies all the tombs open and a horde of undead descend on Jerusalem and they're "seen by many". I mean, come on if we read that in any other text, you'd say, well, that did not actually happen.""" apologist response: but the fragment of Quadratus mentions them! reality: the fragment of Quadratus claims that some of those resurrected "survived even down to our own times", opposite the "holy body" claim: """Our Saviour's works, moreover, were always present: for they were real, consisting of those who had been healed of their diseases, those who had been raised from the dead; who were not only seen while they were being healed and raised up, but were afterwards constantly present. Nor did they remain only during the sojourn of the Saviour on earth, but also a considerable time after His departure; and, indeed, some of them have survived even down to our own times.""" apologist response: but everyone was illiterate! reality: Josephus extensively discusses many tiny Jewish sects in Jerusalem during the same time period, such as that of John the Baptist: Ehrman 1999: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1023301653320958092/unknown.png apologist response: the passage is not literal, it's poetic: Licona 2011a: Licona 2011b: apologist counter-response: abandoning this passage as not-literal means abandoning the Bible as inerrant: Rochford 2022: Geisler 2014: # Bible quotes: other resurrections another person Jesus raised from the dead: Jesus raised Lazarus: John 11:38-44: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016569593898209431/unknown.png """Jesus Raises Lazarus From the Dead 38 Jesus, once more deeply moved, came to the tomb. It was a cave with a stone laid across the entrance. 39 “Take away the stone,” he said. “But, Lord,” said Martha, the sister of the dead man, “by this time there is a bad odor, for he has been there four days.” 40 Then Jesus said, “Did I not tell you that if you believe, you will see the glory of God?” 41 So they took away the stone. Then Jesus looked up and said, “Father, I thank you that you have heard me. 42 I knew that you always hear me, but I said this for the benefit of the people standing here, that they may believe that you sent me.” 43 When he had said this, Jesus called in a loud voice, “Lazarus, come out!” 44 The dead man came out, his hands and feet wrapped with strips of linen, and a cloth around his face. Jesus said to them, “Take off the grave clothes and let him go.”""" another person Jesus raised from the dead: Jesus raised Jairus the synagogue leader's daughter: Mark 5:21-43 (NIV): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016569458132791307/unknown.png """Jesus Raises a Dead Girl and Heals a Sick Woman 21 When Jesus had again crossed over by boat to the other side of the lake, a large crowd gathered around him while he was by the lake. 22 Then one of the synagogue leaders, named Jairus, came, and when he saw Jesus, he fell at his feet. 23 He pleaded earnestly with him, “My little daughter is dying. Please come and put your hands on her so that she will be healed and live.” 24 So Jesus went with him. [....] He took her by the hand and said to her, “Talitha koum!” (which means “Little girl, I say to you, get up!”). 42 Immediately the girl stood up and began to walk around (she was twelve years old). At this they were completely astonished. 43 He gave strict orders not to let anyone know about this, and told them to give her something to eat.""" #####c ##### # sources todo #####o # sources to cover: all mentioned here Sources to cover: todo: Carrier: todo: # also review these #####c ##### # historicity: overview #####o # summary Just four non-Christian writers mentioned Jesus (or something plausibly about Jesus) within the first hundred years after his death: Pliny the Younger, Suetonius, Tacitus, Josephus. Of these, only Josephus mentions any details about Jesus. (The relevant passages in Josephus are also contested as possible forgeries.) Those rest say almost nothing of value about Jesus: Pliny claims his followers worship him "as a God", Suetonius is talking about someone else, Tacitus claims Jesus was "repressed" by Pontius Pilate in Judea. Mishnah sources were hundreds of years after Jesus' death and are unreliable. # atheist historicist Bart Erhman Ehrman 1999: historicist scholar: acknowledges the relative historical silence on Jesus: "What sorts of things do pagan authors from the time of Jesus have to say about him? Nothing." "In none of this vast array of surviving writings is Jesus' name ever so much as mentioned." https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017531940150190241/unknown.png """The vast majority of people in the Roman Empire, therefore, were pagans. What sorts of things do pagan authors from the time of Jesus have to say about him? Nothing. As odd as it may seem, there is no mention of Jesus at all by any of his pagan contemporaries. There are no birth records, no trial transcripts, no death certificates; there are no expressions of interest, no heated slanders, no passing references—nothing. In fact, if we broaden our field of concern to the years after his death—even if we include the entire first century of the Common Era—there is not so much as a solitary reference to Jesus in any non-Christian, non-Jewish source of any kind. I should stress that we do have a large number of documents from the time—the writings of poets, philosophers, historians, scientists, and government officials, for example, not to mention the large collection of surviving inscriptions on stone and private letters and legal documents on papyrus. In none of this vast array of surviving writings is Jesus' name ever so much as mentioned.""" Ehrman 1999: to understand Jesus whatsoever, we cannot use the pagan or Jewish sources, which provide no reliable personal details on Jesus: we must turn to the extra-Biblical Christian writings: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1019007314788884500/unknown.png """A Sobering Subtotal: Jewish and Pagan Sources for Jesus What, then, do we learn about Jesus from non-Christian sources of his day? Not much. I have given here every single reference to Jesus that survives in pagan or Jewish sources written within an entire century of his death. As a result, if we want to know what Jesus said and did during his life, we have no choice but to turn to sources produced by his followers. Fortunately, there are some such sources that exist outside of the New Testament Gospels. Before returning to the Gospels themselves, we may do well to consider the character of these other sources, to see what they can tell us about Jesus' life and death.""" # texts which do not mention jesus * Dead Sea Scrolls or Qumran Caves Scrolls (300 BCE to 100 CE, 300 years before Jesus was born and 67/70 years after Jesus died): Ehrman 1999: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1019054938443219015/unknown.png * writings of Philo Judaeus or Philo of Alexandria (20 BCE to 50 CE, 20 years before Jesus was born and 17/20 years after Jesus died): Ehrman 1999: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1019054938443219015/unknown.png # sources todo Lataster 2015: #####c ##### # pliny: genuine early extra-biblical source, but provides no details about Jesus #####o # background summary: Pliny the Younger (61-113), a magistrate in Rome, wrote dozens of letters to Trajan (53-117), a Roman emperor (98-117). Some of Pliny and Trajan's letters to each other are preserved in the "Trajan Caii Plinii Caecilii Secundi Epistolarum libros decem" or "Letters of the Younger Pliny". Pliny mentions that Christians recite a hymn to Christ, as if he were a god. But Pliny makes no mention of any details related to Yeshua ben Nazareth himself, such as his cause of death. # pliny is the first pagan source to mention jesus Ehrman 1999: historicist scholar: Pliny the Younger is the first reference to Jesus in any pagan account: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017531325672062996/unknown.png """The first reference to Jesus in any surviving pagan account does not come until the year 112 CE. It appears in a letter written by a governor of the Roman province of Bithynia-Pontus (northwestern part of modern-day Turkey), a Roman official named Pliny. Historians usually refer to him as Pliny the Younger, to distinguish him from his equally famous uncle—called, as you might imagine, Pliny the Elder, a widely read and prolific scientist (whose scientific curiosity led to his demise, as it turns out; when Mount Vesuvius erupted in 79 CE he decided to investigate at close range and, well, that was the end of Pliny the Elder). During his tenure as governor of his province, Pliny the Younger was in close contact with the Roman emperor, Trajan. Copies of the letters that they sent back and forth at the time still survive.""" # pliny: didn't investigate anything beyond illegal assembly Carrier 2022: the Roman's weren't interested in investigating Jesus's life or resurrection, because they were a non-violent niche religious group: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017533106510639196/unknown.png """As I also said (§1), even Pliny the Younger didn’t investigate the resurrection of Jesus. And as for Pliny, so for Pilate. Maybe Sheffield should actually read Pliny’s letter. Then he’d learn Pliny conducted no investigation of the supernatural claims of Christians. Pliny tells us what he did investigate and it was not the resurrection claim.[1] This disproves Sheffield’s false assertion that he did, or any Romans would. To the contrary, Pliny says he was only interested in the crime of illegal assembly, and that the religious claims Christians made so disinterested him that as soon as he learned what they were he stopped investigating those claims, dismissing them outright. Exactly the opposite of what Sheffield claims. Trajan then even instructed Pliny to press no investigations, that it was even unworthy of the Empire to do so. Again exactly the opposite of what Sheffield claims. “Christians are not to be hunted out,” Trajan says, as that is “not in consonance with the spirit of our age,” instead he instructs Pliny Christians are only to be investigated for illegal association. No interest in the resurrection belief. It’s dismissed without inquiry. They literally care not one whit about it. As for Trajan, so for Pilate.""" # text of letter from pliny to trajan (only mention of "Christian" in his letters) Firth 1900: Letters / Epistulae Book 10 Section 96 (10.96): Pliny to Trajan 112 CE (79/82 years after Jesus died): please advise me on whether Christians should be persecuted for being Christians, or whether cursing Christ and worshipping our gods is sufficient: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016443583533953054/unknown.png """I have never been present at any legal examination of the Christians, and I do not know, therefore, what are the usual penalties passed upon them, or the limits of those penalties, or how searching an inquiry should be made. I have hesitated a great deal in considering whether any distinctions should be drawn according to the ages of the accused; whether the weak should be punished as severely as the more robust; whether if they renounce their faith they should be pardoned, or whether the man who has once been a Christian should gain nothing by recanting; whether the name itself, even though otherwise innocent of crime, should be punished, or only the crimes that gather round it.""""""Cognitionibus de Christianis interfui numquam: ideo nescio quid et quatenus aut puniri soleat aut quaeri. Nec mediocriter haesitavi, sitne aliquod discrimen aetatum, an quamlibet teneri nihil a robustioribus differant; detur paenitentiae venia, an ei, qui omnino Christianus fuit, desisse non prosit; nomen ipsum, si flagitiis careat, an flagitia cohaerentia nomini puniantur.""" Firth 1900: Letters / Epistulae Book 10 Section 96 (10.96): Pliny to Trajan 112 CE (79/82 years after Jesus died): Christians claim that they merely "recite a hymn among themselves to Christ, as though he were a God", and swear against crimes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016443583533953054/unknown.png """But they declared that the sum of their guilt or their error only amounted to this, that on a stated day they had been accustomed to meet before daybreak and to recite a hymn among themselves to Christ, as though he were a god, and that so far from binding themselves by oath to commit any crime, their oath was to abstain from theft, robbery, adultery, and from breach of faith, and not to deny trust money placed in their keeping when called upon to deliver it.""""""Affirmabant autem hanc fuisse summam vel culpae suae vel erroris, quod essent soliti stato die ante lucem convenire, carmenque Christo quasi deo dicere secum invicem seque sacramento non in scelus aliquod obstringere, sed ne furta ne latrocinia ne adulteria committerent, ne fidem fallerent, ne depositum appellati abnegarent.""" # latin text of letter from trajan to pliny (only mention of "Christian" in his letters) Firth 1900: Letters / Epistulae Book 10 Section 97 (10.97): Trajan to Pliny 112 CE (79/82 years after Jesus died): Christians should not be hunted out; if a Christian is brought before you, and they renounce their faith, they should always be pardoned: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016447997179084920/unknown.png """Actum quem debuisti, mi Secunde, in excutiendis causis eorum, qui Christiani ad te delati fuerant, secutus es. Neque enim in universum aliquid, quod quasi certam formam habeat, constitui potest. Conquirendi non sunt; si deferantur et arguantur, puniendi sunt, ita tamen ut, qui negaverit se Christianum esse idque re ipsa manifestum fecerit, id est supplicando dis nostris, quamvis suspectus in praeteritum, veniam ex paenitentia impetret. Sine auctore vero propositi libelli in nullo crimine locum habere debent. Nam et pessimi exempli nec nostri saeculi est.""" # original latin text: manuscript M.462 contains no relevant passages Morgan Museum: but its text is not online: Pearse 2001: Like many Silver Latin writers, there is little evidence that Pliny's letters achieved the literary fame he had desired, until the revival of these writers in the Fourth century. There is a full paraphrase of the famous letters 96 and 97 in Tertullian's Apologeticum in the second century. This material appears again in Jerome (Chron. s.a. 108) and Eusbius (HE 3.33.3) in the Fourth Century, but quoted from Tertullian. Cameron has analysed the quotation in Tertullian, and there is some indication that Tertullian may witness to at least one verbal variant which has not survived. Edward Worth library: summarizes the controversy of the Aldine Pliny produced by Aldus Manutius: #####c ##### # suetonius: plausible early extra-biblical source #####o # suetonius is the second pagan source to plausibly mention jesus, but it doesn't Ehrman 1999: historicist scholar: Suetonius is the second plausible reference to Jesus in any pagan account; however, Suetonius is discussing riots by Jewish people led by "Chrestus" between 41 and 54 CE (8/11 and 21/24 years after Jesus died), who is not Jesus: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017534503746539590/unknown.png """A few years later, the Roman historian Suetonius made a casual comment that some scholars have taken to be a reference to Jesus. Suetonius wrote a set of biographies on the twelve Roman Caesars who had ruled up to his own time, starting with Julius Caesar. There is a lot of valuable historical information in these books, along with a lot of juicy gossip—a gold mine for historians interested in major events of the early Roman Empire. In his Life of Claudius, emperor from 41 to 54 CE, Suetonius mentions riots that had occurred among the Jews in the city of Rome and says that the riots had been instigated by a person named "Chrestus." Some historians have maintained that this is a misspelling of the name "Christ." If so, then Suetonius is indicating that some of Jesus' followers had created havoc in the capital, a view possibly confirmed in the New Testament (see Acts 18:2). Unfortunately again, though, Suetonius tells us nothing about the man "Chrestus." If he does have Jesus in mind—and it's only a possibility, since he may be referring, actually, to someone called Chrestus!—he must be referring only to Jesus' followers, since Jesus himself had been executed some twenty years before these riots occurred.""" # text of suetonius in english Rofle 1913: Life of Claudius / Deified Claudius Chapter XXV Section 4 (25.4): emperor Claudius expelled Jewish people from Rome in 54 CE (21/24) because they "constantly made disturbances at the instigation of Chrestus": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1017585389004922960/unknown.png """Since the Jews constantly made disturbances at the instigation of Chrestus, he expelled them from Rome. [Another form of Christus; see Tert. Apol. 3 (at the end). It is uncertain whether Suetonius is guilty of an error in chronology or is referring to some Jew of that name. The former seems probable because of the absence of "quodam". Tacitus, Ann. 15.44, uses the correct form, Christus, and states that he was executed in the reign of Tiberius]""" # text of suetonius in latin Ihm 1907: Divus Claudius Chapter XXV Section 4 (25.4): relevant text in Latin: """Iudaeos impulsore Chresto assidue tumultuantis Roma expulit.""" #####c ##### # tacitus: genuine early extra-biblical source #####o # background on tacitus Publius Cornelius Tacitus, pronounced Takitus, was a Roman historian and Senator born 56 CE and died 120 CE, or 23/26 years and 87/90 years after Jesus died. As a senator, Tacitus had access to the Senate's archives, which lends credibility to much of his historical writing. Tacitus wrote the Annals or Histories around 116 CE, or 80/83 years after Jesus died: alternate titles: "Ab Excessu divi Augusti Historiarum Libri", "Books of History from the Death of the Divine Augustus" # tacitus is the third pagan source to mention jesus Ehrman 1999: historicist scholar: Tacitus is the third first reference to Jesus in any pagan account: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1019057328814817331/unknown.png """In any event, in the context of his discussion of Nero's excesses against the Christians, Tacitus does manage to say something about where they had acquired their (to him) strange beliefs and so provides us with the first bit of historical information to be found about Jesus in a pagan author: "Christus, from whom their [i.e., the Christians'] name is derived, was executed at the hands of the procurator Pontius Pilate in the reign of Tiberius" (Annals 15.44). Tacitus goes on to indicate that the "superstition" that emerged in Jesus' wake first appeared in Judea before spreading to Rome itself. It is a pity that Tacitus does not tell us more. I suppose we should assume either that he didn't think additional information about Jesus was of much historical importance or that this was all he knew. Some scholars have noted that even this bit of knowledge is not altogether reliable: Pilate was in fact not a "procurator" but a "prefect"; that is, he not only oversaw revenue collection, but also had some military forces at his command. In any event, Tacitus's report confirms what we know from other sources, that Jesus was executed by order of the Roman governor of Judea, Pontius Pilate, sometime during Tiberius's reign. We learn nothing, however, about why Pilate ordered the execution, let alone about Jesus' life and teachings.""" # authenticity of christians in tacitus: weak Even assuming the passage is totally genuine, two fires had destroyed much in the way of official documents Tacitus had to work with and it is unlikely that he would sift through what he did have to find the record of an obscure crucifixion which suggests that Tacitus was repeating an urban myth whose source was likely the Christians themselves,[3]:344 Carrier 2014: page 344 see above excerpt todo: Carrier 2014: The Prospect of a Christian Interpolation in Tacitus: # authenticity of nero-fire passage in tacitus: weak There is much to question the provenance and veracity of Annals 15.44.[4] There is no other historical confirmation that Nero persecuted Christians for the burning of Rome. Josephus[5] and Pliny the Elder - who were both in Rome in 64 CE - didn't mention Christians at all, which seems unlikely if Nero had been blaming them for the fire. Seneca the Younger's lost On Superstition also didn't mention Christianity, according to Augustine in the 4th century. Furthermore, Neither Origen nor Tertullian use this passage despite referring to or citing Tacitus elsewhere.[6] ^ Alexander Roberts trans Schaff Philip ed 1894: the Nero-fire passage is not quoted by any Christian apologist until historian and Christian priest Sulpicius Severus (363-425), who repeats almost exactly the same statement in Chronica / Chronicle / Chronicorum Libri / Historia sacra (written 403, 370/373 years after Jesus died) Book II Chapter XXIX (2.29): """He therefore turned the accusation against the Christians, and the most cruel tortures were accordingly inflicted upon the innocent. Nay, even new kinds of death were invented, so that, being covered in the skins of wild beasts, they perished by being devoured by dogs, while many were crucified or slain by fire, and not a few were set apart for this purpose, that, when the day came to a close, they should be consumed to serve for light during the night.""" # translations of tacitus: english Woodman 2004: Annals of Tacitus Book XV Section 44 (15.44): Nero blamed "those, resented for their outrages, whom the public called Chrestiani"; "The source of the name was Christus, on whom, during the command of Tiberius, reprisal had been inflicted by the procurator Pontius Pilatus" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016816196802314241/unknown.png """Such were the provisions made by human plans; next, expiations for the gods were sought and the books of the Sibyl were appealed to, as a result of which supplication was made to Vulcan, Ceres, and Proserpina, and Juno was propitiated by matrons, first on the Capitol and then at the nearest stretch of sea, from which water was drawn to besprinkle the temple and the representation of the goddess; and sittings and vigils were celebrated by ladies who had husbands. But despite the human help, despite the princeps’s lavishments and the appeasements of the gods, there was no getting away from the infamous belief that the conflagration had been ordered.Therefore, to dispel the rumor, Nero supplied defendants and inflicted the choicest punishments on those, resented for their outrages, whom the public called Chrestiani. (The source of the name was Christus, on whom, during the command of Tiberius, reprisal had been inflicted by the procurator Pontius Pilatus; and, though the baleful superstition had been stifled for the moment, there was now another outbreak, not only across Judaea, the origin of the malignancy, but also across the City, where everything frightful or shameful, of whatever provenance, converges and is celebrated.) The first to be seized were those who confessed, then, on their information, a mighty number was convicted, not so much on the charge of the conflagration as for their hatred of the human race.And, as they perished, mockeries were added, so that, covered in the hides of wild beasts, they expired from mutilation by dogs or, fixed to crosses and made flammable, on the dwindling of daylight they were burned for use as nocturnal illumination. Nero had offered his gardens for the spectacle and he produced circus games, mingling with the plebs in the dress of a charioteer or standing in his racer. Hence there arose - albeit for culprits who deserved the ultimate exemplary treatment - a feeling of pity, as though it were not in the public interest, but for one man’s savagery, that they were being eliminated.""" Church and Brodribb 1895: Annals of Tacitus Book XV Section 44 (15.44): Nero blamed "a class hated for their abominations, called Christians by the populace" for the fire; "Christus, from whom the name had its origin, suffered the extreme penalty during the reign of Tiberius at the hands of one of our procurators, Pontius Pilatus": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016814567592046702/unknown.png """44. Such indeed were the precautions of human wisdom. The next thing was to seek means of propitiating the gods, and recourse was had to the Sibylline books, by the direction of which prayers were offered to Vulcanus, Ceres, and Proserpina. Juno, too, was entreated by the matrons, first, in the Capitol, then on the nearest part of the coast, whence water was procured to sprinkle the fane and image of the goddess. And there were sacred banquets and nightly vigils celebrated by married women. But all human efforts, all the lavish gifts of the emperor, and the propitiations of the gods, did not banish the sinister belief that the conflagration was the result of an order. Consequently, to get rid of the report, Nero fastened the guilt and inflicted the most exquisite tortures on a class hated for their abominations, called Christians by the populace. Christus, from whom the name had its origin, suffered the extreme penalty during the reign of Tiberius at the hands of one of our procurators, Pontius Pilatus, and a most mischievous superstition, thus checked for the moment, again broke out not only in Judaea, the first source of the evil, but even in Rome, where all things hideous and shameful from every part of the world find their centre and become popular. Accordingly, an arrest was first made of all who pleaded guilty; then, upon their information, an immense multitude was convicted, not so much of the crime of firing the city, as of hatred against mankind. Mockery of every sort was added to their deaths. Covered with the skins of beasts, they were torn by dogs and perished, or were nailed to crosses, or were doomed to the flames and burnt, to serve as a nightly illumination, when daylight had expired.""" # original specific text of tacitus: chapter 44 Fisher 1906: Annals of Tacitus Book XV Section 44 (15.44): relevant text in Latin: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016922391840051202/unknown.png """ergo abolendo rumori Nero subdidit reos et quaesitissimis poenis adfecit quos per flagitia invisos vulgus Christianos appellabat. auctor nominis eius Christus Tiberio imperitante per procuratorem Pontium Pilatum supplicio adfectus erat; repressaque in praesens exitiabilis superstitio rursum erumpebat, non modo per Iudaeam, originem eius mali, sed per urbem etiam quo cuncta undique atrocia aut pudenda confluunt celebranturque.""""""Therefore, suppressing the rumour, Nero subjected the guilty and inflicted the most severe punishments on those whom the common people called Christians, who had been hated for their atrocities. The author of his name, Christ Tiberius, had been put to death by the procurator Pontius Pilate. And the deadly superstition, suppressed for the time being, broke out again, not only through Judea, the origin of its evil, but also through the city, where everything atrocious or shameful from every quarter converges and is celebrated.""" Medicean manuscript M2 Page 38, which contains Book XV Section 44: original pictures: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016825500490027118/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016826354127360030/unknown.png Medicean manuscript M2 Page 38, which contains Book XV Section 44: "christian/chrestian" and "christus/chrestus" highlighted: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016929069000052759/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1016932483138322472/unknown.png # original full text of tacitus: Medicean manuscript M1 and M2 Pearse 2000: summary of the history of the manuscript M2 (which contains Book XV) and how it ended up at Biblioteca Medicea-Laurenziana: """This MS is written in the difficult Beneventan hand. It was written at Monte Cassino, perhaps during the abbacy of Richer (1038-55AD). It derives from an ancestor written in Rustic Capitals, as it contains errors of transcription natural to that bookhand. There is some evidence that it was copied only once in about ten centuries, and that this copy was made from an original in rustic capitals of the 5th century or earlier,8 but other scholars believe that it was copied via at least one intermediate copy written in a minuscule hand.9 How the MS came to leave Monte Cassino is a matter of mystery. It was still at Monte Cassino, and was used by Paulus Venetus, Bishop of Puzzuoli, sometime between 1331 and 1344. However Boccaccio had certainly seen the text by 1371, and the MS is listed among the books given by him at his death to the monastery of S. Spirito in Florence. Whether he had 'liberated' it, or acquired it from another collector who had done so has been extensively debated, without final result. The MS is next seen in 1427, in the hands of the book-collector Niccolo Niccoli, who had furnished bookcases for Boccaccio's collection at S.Spirito. That Niccolo had not acquired the MS legitimately is suggested by a letter to him from his friend Poggio Bracciolini, asking to see it and promising to keep quiet about it. Knowledge of the text among the humanists is correspondingly limited in this period. Poggio returned the MS to Niccolo, complaining about its barbarous script, and comparing it unfavourably with a copy of it in humanist script held by another mutual friend, Salutati. At Niccolo's death in 1437, the MS passed with his books to the monastery of San Marco at Florence with the Medici as executors, and the humanist copies all date from this period or later. The editio princeps was from the press of 'Spira' at Venice, a folio volume containing only the last 6 books of the annals and the first five of the histories. It is undated, but supposed to be from either 1468 or 1470. (Dibdin, Thomas Frognall, An introduction to the knowledge of rare and valuable editions of the Greek and Latin classics, 4th edn., London (1827), vol II. p.466 checked).""" Medicean manuscript M1 (location: Plut.68.01): details and images: Medicean manuscript M2 (location: Plut.68.02): details and images: #####c ##### # josephus: genuine early extra-biblical source #####o # background on josephus # josephus is the first non-Christian source to mention Jesus Ehrman 1999: the Jamesian reference suggests that Jesus had a brother named James, which aligns with claims made in the Gospels: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1019070035140038676/unknown.png """In contrast to pagan sources, we have very few Jewish texts of any kind that can be reliably dated to the first century of the Common Era. And here again, even among the ones that do survive—for example, the Dead Sea Scrolls, about which I'll say some words later, and the extensive writings of Philo, the great Jewish philosopher of Alexandria, Egypt (20 BCE-50 CE)—Jesus is never mentioned. With one important exception. This is the Jewish historian Josephus (37—100 CE), probably our most important source for understanding Jewish life and history during the first century. In the many volumes of writings that have come down to us from his pen, Josephus does not say much about Jesus. But he does mention him briefly on two occasions, and we will do well to consider what he says. First some background.""" # josephus passage 1: jamesian reference Ehrman 1999: the Jamesian reference suggests that Jesus had a brother named James, which aligns with claims made in the Gospels: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1019069603378372679/unknown.png """I'll take the references in reverse order, since the second is of less historical interest. It occurs in a story about the Jewish high priest Ananus, who abused his power in the year 62 CE by unlawfully putting to death a man named James, whom Josephus identifies as "the brother of Jesus who is called the messiah" (Ant. 20.9,1). From this reference we can learn that there was indeed a man named Jesus (Josephus actually discusses lots of different people with that name—many of them at far greater length than the Jesus we are concerned about), that he had a brother named James (which we already knew from the New Testament; see Mark 6:3 and Gal. 1:19), and that he was thought by some people to be the Jewish messiah. The information is not much, but at least it's something. I should point out that Josephus himself does not happen to agree with those who called Jesus the messiah. We don't know how much he knew about the Christians, but it is clear that he remained a non-Christian Jew until his dying day.""" #####c ##### # thallus: alleged early extra-biblical source #####o # thallus: alleged pagan writer who verified darkness after christ's crucifixion Carrier 1999: #####c ##### # pilate: alleged early extra-biblical source (both versions are fabricated) #####o Kirby 2022: the [Acts of Pilate / Acta Pilat] were fabricated by the Roman empire: """When the influence of Christianity was increasing rapidly in the Empire, one of the last pagan emperors, Maximin II, two years before the Edict of Milan, attempted to bring Christianity into disrepute by publishing what he alleged to be the true 'Acts of Pilate', representing the origins of Christianity in an unsavoury guise. These 'Acts', which were full of outrageous assertions about Jesus, had to be read and memorized by schoolchildren. They were manifestly forged, as Eusebius historian pointed out at the time;' among other things, their dating was quite wrong, as they placed the death of Jesus in the seventh year of Tiberius (AD 20), whereas the testimony of Josephus' is plain that Pilate not become procurator of Judaea till Tiberius' Twelfth year (not to mention the evidence of Luke iii. 1, according to which John the Baptist began to preach in fifteenth year of Tiberius). We do not know in detail these alleged 'Acts' contained, as they were naturally suppressed on Constantine's accession to power; but we may surmise that they had some affinity with Toledoth Yeshu, an anti-Christian compilation popular in some Jewish circles in mediaeval time.'""" Kirby 2022: the 2nd Acts of Pilate ([Gospel of Nicodemus / Evangelium Nicodemi]) were fabricated by Christians: """Later in the fourth century another forged set of 'Acts of Pilate' appeared, this time from the Christian side, and as devoid of genuineness as Maximin's, to which they were perhaps intended as a counterblast. They are still extant, and consist of alleged memorials the trial, passion, and resurrection of Christ, recorded by Nicodemus and deposited with Pilate. (They are also own as the 'Gospel of Nicodemus'.) A translation of them is given in M. R. James' Apocryphal New Testament, pp. 94 ff., and they have a literary interest of their own, which does not concern us here.""" #####c ##### # why didn't the romans refute? they weren't interetsed #####o Carrier 2022: why didn't the Romans refute? they weren't interested! """There’s no evidence any Romans ever investigated these claims. No investigation is mentioned anywhere, not even in the fake Acts of Pilate, nor even in the Acts of the Apostles, despite that describing court hearings before several Roman officials. In every such instance, the Romans are totally uninterested in investigating anything the Christians were claiming. Junius Gallio, uninterested; Claudius Lysias, uninterested; Antonius Felix, never once even asks about it; Porcius Festus, just laughs it off, outright saying he has no idea how to investigate such a claim, and consequently, never does; instead, he simply dismisses Paul as a lunatic. Sheffield’s own Bible reports on no other hearings before Roman authorities. We see the same response from Pliny, governor of Bithynia, eighty years later: after merely asking a couple of local believers a few questions, he dismisses the whole thing as superstitious nonsense. He conducts no investigation.""" #####c #####c ##### # # islam # #####c ##### # literary miracle of the qur'an / poetic miracle of the qur'an #####o # general criticisms exMuslim: exMuslim: exMuslim: Muslim: pray three times a day: # al-razi quote Abu Bakr Mohammad Ibn Zakariya al-Razi [864/865 - 925/935]: مخارق الانبياء [Mahariq al anbiya, "The Prophets' Fraudulent Tricks"]: banger quote on the "literary miracle" of the Qur'an: "You claim that the evidentiary miracle is present and available, namely, the Koran. You say: "Whoever denies it, let him produce a similar one." Indeed, we shall produce a thousand similar, from the works of rhetoricians, eloquent speakers and valiant poets, which are more appropriately phrased and state the issues more succinctly. They convey the meaning better and their rhymed prose is in better meter. ... By God what you say astonishes us! You are talking about a work which recounts ancient myths, and which at the same time is full of contradictions and does not contain any useful information or explanation. Then you say: "Produce something like it"?" # specific criticisms Muslim apologists often cite Quran 21:30 as proof that the Qur'an predicted the science of the Big Bang; instead, we see that the exact meaning of Qur'an 21:30 does not map neatly onto the expansion of space-time by immense energy, but instead is described as "parting", "separating", "sewn up", "unstitched", etc.: # articles defending [see if anything useful] Ahmad 2016: todo reread xxx: Qazanfari Omidi Heydarbeygi 2021: todo reread xxx: #####c ##### # scientific foreknowledge: general pages #####o # todo WikiIslam: scientific errors: WikiIslam: scientific miracles: RationalWiki: scientific errors: RationalWiki: scientifci miracles: #####c ##### # hijabs and other face or body coverings #####o # level of social compulsion Pew Research 2013: among Muslims in countries selected by Pew, an unweighted average of 69% say women should have the right to decide whether they wear a veil; 18% say not (+51%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1169175794392780850/image.png?ex=655472cf&is=6541fdcf&hm=239b4f535cf7de1806922493b1a74568bf4b4861cf2442e4b5538e596f8040db& shayla hijab al-amira dupatta khimar chador niqab burka # self-reported reasons why women wear hijabs: most mention religion, few mention compulsion IPSU 2018: among American Muslim women, 46% say they wear a religious symbol; the reasons given for wearing this symbol are religious obligation (54%), external faith identification (21%), modesty (12%), family requirement (1%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/576668991196626944/unknown.png #####c ##### # muslims shifting toward liberalism / secularism #####o # rising secularism in the middle east Middle East residents are becoming substantially less religious over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/634978756163010570/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636953488173039617/at2vrk5vwot31.png Internet use makes Muslims more pro-Western: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640937031173668864/muslim-internet-1.png # united states: gay acceptance ISPU 2017: in the United States, Muslim people are just as likely to be gay as people of other religions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/700370807259660348/unknown.png # united states: muslims are fairly centrist and move in line with the rest of the population Pew polls: American Muslisms support homosexuality as much as Republicans and more than black protestants or white evangelicals: Political 2017: Muslims 2017: Multireligion 2016: Muslims 2011: Muslims 2007: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/471502386880577537/unknown.png Pew 2017: American Muslims are less likely than Americans in general to say that killing civilians is justifiable: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640937711276130324/PF_2017.png Pew 2017: American Muslims and American Christians are about equally religious: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640937724437594126/PF_2017.png Pew 2017: America Muslims are more concerned about Islamic extremism than Americans in general: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/640937747393151007/PF_2017.png IPSU 2018: Muslims are more likely to reject military targeting of civilians and to reject terrorism: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/576668973672824852/unknown.png # britain: muslims are strongly conservative and are only slowly liberalizing British Muslims are becoming more liberal (but are still much more conservative than Britain overall): """A majority of Muslims disagree that homosexuality should be legal in Britain: 38% strongly disagree and 14% tend to disagree, whereas only 8% strongly agree and 10% tend to agree. (By way of comparison, 73% of the whole adult public (and 67% of Christians) said that it should be legal in the control group survey with a representative sample from the same poll. But although Muslims’ views are now out of line with the more liberal views of the British public as a whole, it should perhaps be borne in mind that as recently as 1993 the British Social Attitudes survey found 50% of the adult British public believing that “sexual relations between two adults of the same sex” were “always wrong”.) **Young Muslims are significantly more likely to agree that homosexuality should be legal (28% of 18-24 year olds, 23% of 25-34 year olds),** but even in these age groups there was a clear plurality against: as many 18-24 year olds strongly disagree as agree, strongly or otherwise, and among 25-34 year olds almost twice as many do so.""" ^ comparisons to other British by religion: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/729384923605237780/Clements-figures-attitudes-to-homosexuality-01-2017-F4b.png #####c #####c ##### # # psychology # #####o ##### # political beliefs: overall #####o # meta-methodology comparison of American libs, cons, and liberts psychological and moral profiles of liberals, conservatives, and libertarians: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641092115794755614/unknown.png # extremism: addiction to community people get "addicted" to the sense of community that white nationalism builds in them: Disengagement from white supremacy is characterized by substantial lingering effects that subjects describe as addiction. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of identity residual for understanding how people leave and for theories of the self #####c ##### # political beliefs: mental illness #####o Love et al 2019: among 3246 Swedish respondents, centrist and right-wing party members were significantly more likely to stigmatize depression and believe that you can "snap out" of depression: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951575389476622406/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951580865652195378/unknown.png Löve DeLuca et al 2018: among 518 American respondents, higher Right-Wing Authoritarianism (RWA) significantly correlated with multiple types of higher stigma toward mentally ill people and with feelings of inadequacy if they had to seek psychological help: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951579555645243412/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/951579861225463828/unknown.png # todo Munsch Barnes Kline 2020: conservatives blame individuals for their poor mental health: Schlenker Chambers Le 2012: conservatives are happier; reasons examined: # todo: also has religion and mental well-being studies Black 2021 (reactionary source) Lim and Putnam 2010: religious people are happier because of the social networks they build, not religious faith; church friends drives the correlation between religiosity and happiness: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1164336628681154560/image.png?ex=6542d7fc&is=653062fc&hm=e63dec7527de83aa02ec9dc88f1f42dc35f8aa807750ce5ed5437fee6a7df9c4& #####c ##### # trigger warnings #####o # summary review of the literature about trigger warnings: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/725696664278663248/unknown.png # evidence for no effect among 451 trauma survivors, trigger warnings did not reduce (self-reported) vulnerability or anxiety (even for people who thought that words can harm or for people with PTSD): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/725697048946671687/unknown.png trigger warnings insignificantly decreased negative affect: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636103889879302155/unknown.png As Table 3 shows, in the rows labeled “Content,” we instead found the effects of trigger warnings were once again trivially small. In standardized terms, the effects for this subset were: rating of material: dUnbiased = 0.00, 95% CI = [–0.40, 0.40]; negative affect: dUnbiased = –0.26, 95% CI = [–0.57, 0.05]; intrusion tally: dUnbiased = –0.02, 95% CI = [–0.61, 0.57]; IES intrusions: dUnbiased = –0.10, 95% CI = [–0.54, 0.34]; comprehension: dUnbiased = –0.17, 95% CI = [–0.74, 0.39]; avoidance: dUnbiased = 0.04, 95% CI = [–0.68, 0.76]). # evidence for negative effect among those without experience of PTSD, trigger warnings significantly increase anxiety among those who believe that words can harm people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636098824443658242/unknown.png Participants were recruited on Amazon’s Mechanical Turk[.] [....] A single-item screening question excluded individuals who had experienced a canonical stressor (e.g., rape, natural disaster) qualifying for Criterion A of the PTSD diagnosis in DSM-5 (American Psychiatric Association, 2013). Three hundred participants completed the study. Four participants were excluded from all analyses because they reported having received a diagnosis of PTSD despite denying exposure to canonical traumatic stressors. [....] A simple slopes analysis indicated that for participants who do not have a strong belief that words can cause harm (MWCHS – 1 SD), receiving a trigger warning does not significantly increase anxiety from baseline (B = -4.57, t(265) = -1.73, ns). However, if participants have a strong belief that words can harm (MWCHS + 1 SD), trigger warnings significantly increase anxiety from baseline (B = 5.90, t(265) = 2.20, p < .05). among those who believe trigger warnings are protecting against anxiety, trigger warnings significantly increase negative affect : https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636102465594458122/unknown.png We recruited 120 individuals from across the United States through Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk), but an additional 28 additional participants signed up despite not finishing the survey. Of these 148 individuals, 4 were excluded on account of English being their second language and 64 participants dropped out of the survey after informed consent but prior to answering any questions, resulting in a final sample of 80 participants. [....] There was, however, a significant warning × beliefs interaction (F(2, 702) = 4.54, p = .01, partial η2 = 0.013) (See Fig. 5). Simple effects reveal that those who believed trigger warnings to be coddling (one standard deviation below the mean) experienced more negative affect in the control condition compared to both the Trigger Warning Only condition (Mdifference= 4.69, 95% CI [1.74 7.65], p = .002, d = 0.30) and the Trigger Warning with Content condition (Mdifference= 4.15, 95% CI [1.45, 6.85], p = .003, d = 0.28). #####c ##### # video games and violence #####o Prescott Sargent Hull 2018: metastudy: across 24 longitudinal studies, video game violence was significantly correlated (r=8%, r^2=.6%) with increased physical aggression, controlling for prior aggression and race: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565936758970122261/unknown.png """VGV was related to aggression using both fixed [β = 0.113, 95% CI = (0.098, 0.128)] and random effects models [β = 0.106 (0.078, 0.134)]. When all available covariates were included, the size of the effect remained significant for both models [β = 0.080 (0.065, 0.094) and β = 0.078 (0.053, 0.102), respectively].""""""[O]ur metaanalysis yielded a modest effect size of ≈0.11 when additional covariates were not included. Ferguson and his colleagues have noted that a regression coefficient of 0.10 is associated with only 1% of the variance in the outcome and concluded that this is so small as to be meaningless. However, others countered that squared regression coefficients provide a less appropriate metric for judging the practical significance of effects compared with estimates of relative risk.""" meta-metastudy: the American Psychological Association's literature review concludes that violent video game use correlates with physical aggression: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565938875487223830/unknown.png #####c ##### # social media and mental health #####o # mental health outcomes among 7th-11th graders in Montreal, increased social media use correlated with increased depression (across people: +2.28% per ~hour / across time: +1.46% per ~hour) and decreased self-esteem (-21.2%/-8.3%), video games with insigificantly changed depression (NS/NS) and decreased self-esteem (-7.9%/-9.4%), computer with increased depression (2.46%/NS) and decreased self-esteem (-12.2%/NS), and television with increased depression (NS/.64%) and mixed self-esteem (6.0%/-24.5%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/656150582708666368/unknown.png n=3826 # productivity workers are more productive when allowed to access the Internet freely: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-005X.2011.00272.x [unformatted, unread] #####c ##### # intelligence and psychological problems #####o # happiness lower IQ people report lower happiness, even after controlling for economic and social factors: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636689433512640522/unknown.png # overexciteability mensa members (higher intelligence) were much more likely to have a variety of "overexciteable" disorders, such as social anxiety: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636688218133102592/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636688264501133332/unknown.png workers in creative, scientific, and artistic occupations are more likely to have schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or depression, or to be a sibling of someone who does: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636691211138105367/unknown.png # orchid thesis students with bipolar are both more likely to do very poorly and to do very well in high school (supports the "Orchid-Dandelion" thesis): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/636691728082141195/unknown.png #####c ##### # psychology and language #####o # how terms affect learning Anggoro et al 2008: compared to children in Jakarta (Indonesian), children in Chicago (English) were more likely to misidentify "alive" as an trait of "animal" instead of "living things"; this suggets confusion of "animal (excludes humans)" with "alive", as this term does not exist in Indonesian: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/953907044958761001/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/953918581857472512/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # military service # #####o ##### # military recruitment not biased towards poor, nonwhite people / poverty draft #####o # recruitment: supply-side military recruitment head notes student debt key to beating recruitment goals: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/703963565345996880/1_recruitment_debt.png student debt advertisement: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709068115887128620/1_army_ad.png military recruiters disproportionately target poor and nonwhite schools: # recruitment: demand-side the most common reasons recruits cite for joining the army is desire for adventure, Army job benefits, desire to serve the nation, Army job stability & pay, to leave negative environments, Army job training, and family history: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/703963715388702851/2_rand_results.png n=81 the most common reasons 16-21 year-olds cite for considering joining the US military are to pay for future education (49%), travel (45%), pay (44%), to help others (41%), to gain experience or work skills (38%), health benefits (32%), adventure (30%), duty to country (28%), pride or honor (27%), and to help with future job opportunities (27%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/708794856603910174/unknown.png #####c ##### # military representation not biased towards poor, nonwhite people / poverty draft #####o # representation: income Yung Neocon: TODO: https://web.archive.org/https://twitter.com/yungneocon/status/1254313640930533379 2006-7: military recruits mostly come from neighborhoods near median household income: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/706341848825987102/1_heritage_5k_proportion.png 2006-7: relative to the US population, the military is disproportionately middle-income: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/706341857612922960/1_heritage_5k_oddsratio.png 2018: relative to the US population, the military is disproportionately middle-income: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/708715490864005170/unknown.png 1979-2008: relative to the US population, the military in the 80's was disproportionately poor and undereducated, but the military in the 00's was disproportionately rich and well-educated: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/708409432572297276/unknown.png # representation: race 1980-2000: relative to the US population, whites are 1.05x more likely to be in the military, black people 1.26x, Hispanic .47x, Asian .80x, and American Indian 1.25x: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/706260947437748265/unknown.png 2006-7: relative to the US population, whites are 1.06x more likely to be military recruits, black people 1.06x, Hispanic .66x, Asian .94x, and American Indian 2.82x: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/706255437422657648/unknown.png 2017: relative to the US population, active duty military are about equally likely to be white, black, and Hispanic people; Asian people are underrepresented, other is overrepresented: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714517669365153853/unknown.png # representation: requirements military standards: high school education, no major medical conditions, no drug use, no criminal record: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/708722171412873216/unknown.png # characteristics: education 2006-7: relative to the US population, military recruits are 15x less likely to not have a highschool equivalent education: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/706344126563745802/1_quality_education.png 2018: relative to the US population, military recruits are disproportionately high-scoring on the Armed Forces Qualification Test: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/706344102131662938/1_quality_afqt.png #####c ##### # military fatalities not biased towards poor, nonwhite people #####o # fatalities: perspective only .5% of the population has served active duty: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/709072461500776478/3_pew.png # fatalities: income poorer communities are more likely to have higher fatalities in modern wars: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/706948455146455130/unknown.png # fatalities: race among military deaths, higher casualty rates correlate with lower community income correlates, lower black population, lower age, lower Republican vote share, and being in the South: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/706951510529015895/unknown.png military deaths in Afghanistan and Iraq are disproportionately white: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/707258370377121963/unknown.png #####c ##### # effects of military service #####o # effects: income relative to comparable non-veterans, military service correlates with an 8% higher wage (16 years later): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714492052855062618/unknown.png relative to comparable non-veterans, military service for 2 years correlates with -5% higher wage (16 years later), 4 years with +5%, 8 years with +10%, 12 years with +10%, and those still-serving with +45%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714492100611145810/unknown.png these trends held for all four categories of MOS: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714492502626795631/unknown.png these trends held in the 1994 and 1997 cohorts; the RAND study was published too soon to evaluate the 2003 cohort: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714492109343686706/unknown.png # effects: education relative to comparable non-veterans, military service correlates with -5% higher college degree attainment after 6 years and with +1% higher attainment after 18 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714511050988322856/unknown.png these trends mostly hold for all year of service lengths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714511062124462161/unknown.png these trends mostly hold for all four categories of MOS: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714511070857003148/unknown.png # effects: gaps the home-ownership gap between veteran and nonmilitary residents disproportionately benefits nonwhite people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714520453070454854/unknown.png the home-ownership gap between active duty and nonmilitary residents disproportionately benefits nonwhite people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714520461500743750/unknown.png the income gap between veteran and nonmilitary residents disproportionately benefits nonwhite people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714520424410775592/unknown.png the income gap between active duty and nonmilitary residents disproportionately benefits nonwhite people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714520445176512522/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # animal agriculture, veganism, and pet ownership # #####o ##### # animal cognition #####o # animal abilities unformatted: many animals have the ability to count: empathy: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/a-new-model-of-empathy-the-rat/2011/12/08/gIQAAx0jfO_story.html #####c ##### # vegetarianism and veganism #####o # persuasion and changing behavior Matur 2021: evidence strongly suggests that informing people about poor animal welfare in factory farms correlates with reduced meat consumption: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/855203213984006215/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013138755948904478/unknown.png """We meta-analyzed 100 studies assessing interventions designed to reduce meat consumption or purchase by mentioning or portraying farm animals, that measured behavioral or self-reported outcomes related to meat consumption, purchase, or related intentions, and that had a control condition. The interventions consistently reduced meat consumption, purchase, or related intentions at least in the short term with meaningfully large effects (metaanalytic mean risk ratio [RR] = 1.22; 95% CI: [1.13, 1.33]).""" # nutrition scientific consensus: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/890355437633945610/unknown.png """It is the position of the American Dietetic Association that appropriately planned vegetarian diets, including total vegetarian or vegan diets, are healthful, nutritionally adequate, and may provide health benefits in the prevention and treatment of certain diseases.""" nutrient intake by diet in Switzerland: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/648356343069278213/unknown.png OV = omnivore, VG = vegetarian, VN = vegan; Ca = Calcium, Mg = Magnesium, P = Phosphorous, Fe = Iron, Zn = Zinc, K = Potassium, Na = Sodium, Cl = Chlorine """We recruited 53 ovo-lacto vegetarians, 53 vegans and 100 omnivores. OV and VG subjects taking antibiotics or vitamin/mineral supplements, as well as pregnant and lactating women, were excluded from the study. Vitamin/mineral supplementation is very common among VNs. As it was impossible to recruit the required number of vegan subjects otherwise, the criteria regarding supplementation were relaxed for this group.""" [vietocr + graph this] # medical expenses among matched cohorts (by age and sex) in Taiwan, vegetarians had substantially lower medical expenditures: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/740558748560523364/unknown.png the health and environmental benefits of a global shift to plant-based diets would be about $1-$31 trillion per year: """Transitioning toward more plant-based diets that are in line with standard dietary guidelines could reduce global mortality by 6–10% and food-related greenhouse gas emissions by 29–70% compared with a reference scenario in 2050. We find that the monetized value of the improvements in health would be comparable with, or exceed, the value of the environmental benefits although the exact valuation method used considerably affects the estimated amounts. Overall, we estimate the economic benefits of improving diets to be 1–31 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to 0.4–13% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2050. However, significant changes in the global food system would be necessary for regional diets to match the dietary patterns studied here.""" # environmental efficiency: individual foods Poore 2018: "a vegan diet is probably the single biggest way to reduce your impact on planet Earth, not just greenhouse gases": Poore and Nemecek 2018: meta-study evidence suggests that beef requires 167x more GHG emissions per 100g of carbon than nuts, protein sources compared: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866400840914173972/unknown.png Poore and Nemecek 2018: meta-study evidence suggests that all plant products require lower GHG emissions per 100g of protein than any animal product, including eggs: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/866424731095793664/F1.png # environmental efficiency: whole diets Aleksandrowicz et al 2016: vegan-vegetarian-pescetarian diets are associated with significantly reduced GHG emissions and land use, but insignificantly changed water use: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/635718330728185856/unknown.png # environmental efficiency: clothing Global Fashion Agenda 2017: cradle to grave environmental costs per kilogram of material: cow leather < silk < cotton < bast fiber < wool < synthetic leather < nylon < modal < rayon < acrylic < spandex < lyocell < polyester < polypropylene: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860335216776970290/unknown.png Global Fashion Agenda 2017: cradle to grave environmental costs per kilogram of material, with rankings by subcategory: polyproplyene & polyester are the most ecologically efficient materials in every category except resource depletion: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860336917027094538/unknown.png # agricultural efficiency is low Lusk and Bailey 2009: agricultural efficiency: in the USA between 2004-05, crops produced 5-19x more calories per dollar and 3.3x-26.8x more protein per dollar than animal products (including only farm costs): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/741667366412353536/unknown.png Lusk and Bailey 2009: retail efficiency: in the USA between 2004-05, crops produced 1.2x-5.6x more calories per dollar and 0.5x-4.57x more protein per dollar than animal products (including retail costs, such as transportation and preparation): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/741669037787840532/unknown.png Lusk and Bailey 2009: shifts towards vegetarianism-veganism would reduce crop prices *and* meat prices: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/823941752507334726/unknown.png """Of course, a shift towards vegetarianism by one [percentage point] of the population would reduce corn prices and hence meat prices for the remaining meat-eaters, as lower corn prices reduced the cost of feeding animals. Assuming SB = -0.02373, SP = -0.02068, and SCK = -0.02422, corn prices fall 1.72 percent, beef prices fall 1.81 percent, pork prices fall 1.43 percent, and poultry prices fall 2.29 percent. Large-scale shifts towards vegetarianism not only make vegetarian diets cheaper due to lower corn prices, but make non-vegetarian diets cheaper as well. Given these percent changes in prices, movements towards vegetarianism may actually make meat consumption increasingly affordable relative to vegetarianism.""" # societal efficiency is low Simon 2013: when one includes costs of subsidies, environmental harms, animal welfare harms, and health harms, the animal food system imposes about $1.65 in hidden costs per $1 in sales: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/889524263919452220/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/889524949168029696/unknown.png """"Meatonomics" is the first book to add up the huge "externalized" costs that the animal food system imposes on taxpayers, animals and the environment, and it finds these costs total about $414 billion yearly. With yearly retail sales of around $250 billion, that means that for every $1 of product they sell, meat and dairy producers impose almost $2 in hidden costs on the rest of us. But if producers were forced to internalize these costs, a $4 Big Mac would cost about $11.""" ^ subsidies: """One study estimates that 63 percent of US subsidies benefit animal food producers. 18 Applying this percentage to the $57.3 billion farm subsidy total, and adding $2.3 billion for fish subsidies (see chapter 9), the total of annual subsidies to US producers of animal foods is an estimated $38.4 billion. 19""" # price elasticity of animal products [todo] A hefty pile of studies (419 at last count) measures the price elasticity of demand for animal foods—that is, the relationship between prices and consumption. In 2010, a meta-study determined that a 1 percent change in the price of beef causes American consumption to change by about 0.75 percent. 33 In other words, notwithstanding all the other reasons why people buy beef—including marketing, taste, and nutritional beliefs—a 10 percent price change will shift consumption by about 7.5 percent. The study found that dairy has demand elasticity of 0.65, meaning that a 10 percent price change in dairy products causes consumption to change by about 6.5 percent. 34 # animal-friendly agriculture is insufficient Fischer 2016: switching to animal-friendly agriculture would increase the cost of meat by roughly 4 times: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1107523180442157126/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1107522022285791373/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1107523693070000209/image.png """According to the US Department of Labor, the average American spends 12.6% of her income on food.5 Of that, roughly 4.2% is devoted to animal products. If the prices of those products were to go up by a factor of 3.75—and estimate that I take to be conservative—she would have to spend 24.15% of her total budget to maintain the same level of animal product consumption, which is nearly double what she now spends.""""""If the average American eats three meals a day, and consumes some animal product or other at every meal, then she’d go from eating animal products 21 times per week to eating them twice per week. While that would still be a far cry from strict veganism, it’s pretty close relative to current patterns of consumption.""" # expense: good descriptive studies Lusk et al 2016: controlling for demographics, "true" vegetarians (don't buy any meat) spend about $15/wk ($780/yr) less than omnivores; "partial" vegetarians (buy some meat) spend about $13/wk ($676/yr) more than omnivores: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/741354430766776420/unknown.png demographic controls: sex, race, income, education, region, marital status, weight, political views, number of kids, number of household members"""Our data set consists of a total of 24,537 respondents who participated in FooDS over the two year period from May 2013 to May 2015. Of the total, 733 respondents (or about 3%) are partial vegetarians and 541 (or about 2.2%) are true vegetarians.""" # expense: supplements supplements: """I decided to research common prices for an array of differen supplements that are commonly prescribed to vegans. This is what I found: Vitamin B-12 – $15.24 for 1,000 mcg soft gels, 150 count. Vitamin k-2 – $21.99 for 600 mcg capsules, 90 count. Omega-3 fatty acids – $11.31 for 1200 mg soft gels, 150 count. Zinc – $4.45 for 50 mg caplets, 100 count. Calcium – $10.49 for 1,200 mg soft gels, 120 count.""" # expense: bad descriptive studies this only examined two hypothetical meals: a vegetarian diet (uses eggs, dairy, etc.) was substantially cheaper ($39/wk) than the cheapest low-meat option from MyPlate ($53/wk) and generally had better nutrient outcomes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/740560698504904774/unknown.png """All of the food products were priced during March 2012 using nonsale prices at Stop & Shop (a grocery chain in Rhode Island/southeastern New England). The nutrient content for each diet was determined using DietAnalysis+ 8.0 (Brooks Cole, 2007; Thompson Wadworth), a nutrient database that uses the USDA nutrient analysis and allows for entry of any food not available in the database.""""""Though increasing calcium intake is widely recommended in the United States for preventing and treating osteoporosis, international data do not support a relationship betwen calcium intake to bone mineral density.24""""""The preparation of plant-based meals that include extra virgin olive oil may be unfamiliar to Americans or they may be perceived as complicated. Higher labor costs for preparing the economical Thrifty Food Plan have been shown to be a deterrent to the use of the recipes by lower socioeconomic populations.17,29 However, 76% of the participants in the RTB protocol reported that the recipes were easier to prepare and took less time than the recipes they typically used, and 94% responded “yes” when asked whether they planned to continue using the RTB foods.12""" Berners-Lee et al. (2012) estimated that vegans save 14% on their grocery store purchases relative to meat eaters, but that estimate is not based on individual data, but an amalgamation of several datasets and various assumptions about how UK eating habits mimic those of the US. The Berners-Lee study separated vegetarians for vegans, and found that, of the two, vegans spent more on money. Only one study (to our knowledge) has analyzed food expenditures at the individual level for those who are and are not vegetarians. Using a survey of 1600 Canadians, data were collected on vegetarian status (lacto-ovo vegetarians, to be specific) and self-reported monthly food expenditures. Results showed that, contrary to previous studies, vegetarians actually spent more money on food (Guillemette and Cranfield, 2012). [xxx todo reread] """Transitioning toward more plant-based diets that are in line with standard dietary guidelines could reduce global mortality by 6–10% and food-related greenhouse gas emissions by 29–70% compared with a reference scenario in 2050. We find that the monetized value of the improvements in health would be comparable with, or exceed, the value of the environmental benefits although the exact valuation method used considerably affects the estimated amounts. Overall, we estimate the economic benefits of improving diets to be 1–31 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to 0.4–13% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2050. However, significant changes in the global food system would be necessary for regional diets to match the dietary patterns studied here.""" #####c ##### # pet ownership #####o # scope: proportion and expense for 2001-2, the American Pet Products Association estimated that 63m American households (58% of 108m) owned a pet and spent $29-30 billion on their pets: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/683337671149486161/Page-32-graphic.png different surveys conducted between 2007 and 2018 estimate that between 48% and 68% of Americans owned a pet: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/683336408194482207/IQSJLITLIRB3JOQ45YHCLWIKQQ.png pet expenses make up .3 to .4% of personal income: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/683338292611252287/3-income-share-copy-1-w640.png # effects: meat consumption in the USA, cats and dogs consume 203/(1051+203)=16.1% of food calories (1 in 6 food products go to pets) and 25% of meat calories (1 in 4 meat products go to pets): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/683304143712026624/unknown.png # effects: health benefits in China, whose cities recently allowed pet ownership, dog ownership among young-middle-aged women was associated with positive health outcomes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/683306620003942445/unknown.png # effects: health benefits: economic benefits (bad studies) * this study assumes that more doctor visits leads to more healthcare expenditures -- it's not clear that this is true (eg, Japan has 12 visits/yr vs USA 4 visits/yr, Japan 2x cheaper than USA), so the economic impact assumptions appear invalid in Germany, if one assumes that national health expenditures (NHE) and doctor visits are 1:1, then a 1% decrease in pet ownership was estimated to increase NHE by +0.262 billion EUR/yr (in 2000: 1.09 USD/EUR, 282m Americans/82m Germans => `.262*1.09*(282/82)` = +0.982 billion USD/yr); the elimination of pet ownership was estimated to increase NHE by 5.59 billion EUR/yr (in 2000: `5.59*1.09*(282/82)` = +21.0 billion USD/yr): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/683321432167546897/unknown.png """Simple multiplication shows that if the 21.3% of the population who ‘always’ owned a pet in Germany went to the doctor 1.12 times a year more often, and the PetNow and Pet5ago groups also went as often as the PetNever group, then the total increase in doctor visits nation-wide would be 2.56%. Health expenditure (2000) was 218.4 billion Euros. So loss of all pets would bring in its train an increase in national health expenditure of 5.59 billion Euros (0.0256 x 218.4 billion Euros). Another way of viewing the issue is to say that every 1% fall in pet ownership in the PetAlways group results in extra health costs of about 262 million Euros per year. So the actual fall in ownership of 1.4% which occurred between 1996 and 2001 probably cost about 367 million Euros.6""" in Australia, if one assumes that national health expenditures (NHE) and doctor visits are 1:1, then a 1% decrease in pet ownership was estimated to increase NHE by `.495/7.3` = +0.0678 billion AUD/yr (in 2000: 1.34 USD/AUD, 282 Americans/19m Australians => `.0678*1.34*(282/19)` = +1.35 billion USD/yr); the elimination of pet ownership was estimated to increase NHE by 3.86 billion (in 2000: `3.86*1.34*(282/19)` = +76.8 billion USD/yr): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/683330385400168464/unknown.png """In Australia far more people own pets, so the imputed losses are proportionately larger. If the 56.9% of Australians who ‘always’ owned a pet went to the doctor as often as non-owners (i.e. 0.57 times a year more than they do now), and if adjustments are also made for the PetNow and Pet5ago groups, then the national increase in doctor visits and in resulting health expenditure would be 7.19%. Given that national health expenditure in 1999-2000 was $53.7 billion, this would represent an expenditure increase of $3.86 billion. Or, to put it another way, the decline in pet ownership of 7.3% which the ISSS-A estimates to have occurred between 1996 and 2001 may have cost about $495 million in increased health expenditure. About $351 million (71%) of this would have been borne by governments and about $144 million (29%) would have been privately incurred health expenditure.""" # effects: psychological benefits animal-assisted activities significantly decreased depression (~.6 standard deviations) versus control groups: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/690983646412275722/unknown.png stated benefits of pets among Swedish respondents: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/683301579302240285/unknown.png #####c ##### # kosher and halal slaughter #####o # terminology dhabihah or zabiha: halal slaughter shechita: kosher slaughter; shochet: kosher slaughterer # legal framework Kaminski 2020: there is a large "ritual bubble" surrounding religious slaughter in the USA: """It was not until Congress passed the 1978 version of the bill that the HMSA provided for administrative and criminal sanctions for inhumane slaughter.62 The USDA was empowered and directed to develop specific regulations that would enforce the HMSA.63 However, the regulations did not include anything on ritual slaughter.64 The USDA said this was because under the HMSA, ritual slaughter was exempt, and that any regulations promulgated by them are inapplicable to ritual slaughter.65 This exception has created the “ritual bubble,” whereby the USDA inspectors charged with ensuring the HMSA protections and standards are enforced, are unable to do so because of the exception.66 The treatment of animals within the “bubble” is completely unregulated, which leaves animals open to terrible abuses, and the inspectors with little or no recourse.67""" # painfulness Barrasso 2020: among 240 slaughtered sheep, consciousness rates among religiously slaughtered sheep were 2.0x higher after 15s (47% vs 92%), 2.5x after 30s (22% vs 55%), and 4x after 90s (3% vs 13%): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/823948296501592074/unknown.png religious slaughter was halal but not kosher (not done by a shochet); religious slaughter involved no stunning; nonreligious slaughter involved a captive bolt gun """Briefly, RB was tested by observing the presence or absence of inhalation and exhalation movements by the animal. The CR was tested by lightly touching the cornea and, if present, the eyeball retracted slightly, and the eyelids closed.""" #####c #####c ##### # # health and wellness # #####o ##### # anti-depressants and therapy work #####o # cbt works: increased quality of life Hofmann et al 2017: meta-study: across 24 studies with 1969 patients, cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) improved self-reported quality of life (QOL) by about 2/3 of a standard deviation (fairly large), with no dropoff over time: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070812906691772486/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070813326306725929/image.png # ssri's work: reduced depression Cipriani et al 2018: meta-study: across 474 studies with 106966 patients with acute adult depression, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) reduced depression by over 50% of the total score of a standardized depression scale (read: substantially reduced depression) by 1.8 times more than placebo, on average: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070830675281858560/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070831184315170827/image.png efficacy: " (response rate measured by the total number of patients who had a reduction of ≥50% of the total score on a standardised observer-rating scale for depression) " #####c ##### # diet and longevity #####o # outcomes and lifespan Ashwell et al 2014: WHR and BMI by years of life lost: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/568541213704323082/unknown.png Bhaskaran et al 2018: BMI and lifespan by many causes of death: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/696935380905361508/gr2.png # soylent soylent has been recalled 3 times between 2015 and 2019: 2017 April 24: 890 boxes of Soylent powder 1.8 were recalled due to fears of contamination of undeclared milk: """Our shipping records indicate that we have shipped 890 boxes (containing 7 x 15oz pouches) of this lot to 610 customers. We have started shipping newer lots to customers and do not anticipate an interruption in supply at this time.""" 2016: 2 weeks of Soylent food bars and Soylent powder 1.6 recalled over reports of : 2015: Soylent recalled 80 bottles of Soylent drink 2.0 over reports of mold in the drinks: #####c ##### # alternative medicine #####o disability adjusted life years (DALYs) have been declining in the USA, suggesting most people are living healthier lives: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/621975729521033216/unknown.png #####c ##### # vaccines #####o immunizations between 1994 and 2013 prevented 732,000 deaths and saved $1.38 trillion: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641980197398380544/m6316a4f.png immunizaitons would substantially improve a pandemic scenario: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/478313695261360149/JMAHP-3-27044-g002.png #####c ##### # covid-19 #####o # excess mortality by level of vaccination Horpendahl 2023: countries with higher rates of vaccination saw lower rates of excess mortality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1146740085954465832/image-7.png # effective policies: social distancing strong evidence for shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs; statistically significant in all models), weak evidence for restaurant and entertainment center closures (significant ignoring SIPOs, almost significant including SIPOs), no evidence for school closures and bans on large social gatherings: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714843704388747354/unknown.png """Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate by 5.4 percentage points after 1–5 days, 6.8 after 6–10 days, 8.2 after 11–15 days, and 9.1 after 16–20 days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply 10 times greater spread by April 27 without SIPOs (10 million cases) and more than 35 times greater spread without any of the four measures (35 million).""""""We focused on four government-imposed interventions: SIPOs, public school closures, bans on large social gatherings, and closures of entertainment-related businesses.""" # effective policies: social distancing, school closure a combination of school closure and social distancing (masks, handwashing, distance, etc.) substantially reduced infectivity of influenza in Hong Kong: """The estimated 44% reduction in influenza transmission in the general community in February, 2020, was much greater than the estimated 10–15% reduction in transmission associated with school closures alone during the 2009 pandemic,18 and the 16% reduction in transmission of influenza B associated with school closures during the 2017–18 winter in Hong Kong.19 We therefore estimate that the other social distancing measures and avoidance behaviours have had a substantial effect on influenza transmission in addition to the effect of school closures.""" # effective policies: paid sick leave cities that implemented mandatory paid sick leave saw reductions of 5% of influenza-like illness, according to the Google Flu proxy of influenza infections: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/706331637931311164/pichlerfig1.png # fatalities: median age at death COVID takes about 1 decade from its average victim: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/714838360979406938/unknown.png # efficacy of vaccination: large Unvaccinated people have a 6-15x higher risk of dying from COVID: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1133629954777677834/https3A2F2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.png Wallace Goldsmith-Pinkham Schwartz 2023: after COVID and before vaccines became available, registered Democrats had slightly higher excess death rates; after vaccines became available, Republicans had ~10% (!!) higher excess death rates: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1133969907156000768/F15j0CFWABA6FjR.png # long covid: living systemic review Michelen 2022: #####c ##### # covid-19 and ivermectin #####o # meta-studies: only includes moderate and high-quality evidence Popp et al 2021: there is no evidence that Ivermectin improves any patient outcome, including mortality: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/975934304314097725/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/975934080560537600/unknown.png # ivermectin: list of retracted articles: rothrock 2021 Rothrock et al 2021: extensively discusses Kory 2021 and Bryant 2021, briefly discusses all other meta-studies; notes that most evidence is low and sample sizes are too low to draw the conclusions being made: """Ultimately, imperfect studies need to be replaced by larger, adequately powered, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials, with meta-analyses, ideally using IPD, based on these studies. Assuming an overall COVID-19 case fatality rate of 2%, a study with 4638 patients (2319 each arm) would be needed to have 80% power (alpha 0.05, 1:1 enrollment) to detect a 1% or 50% relative drop in mortality from any intervention (eg, ivermectin).60 Assuming a sicker population (7% mortality, Bryant meta-analysis), a study with 1274 patients (637 each study arm) would be needed to have 80% power to detect a 3.5% (50% relative) drop in mortality. We await results of such studies before concluding that treatment with ivermectin can decrease mortality in all or a subset of patients with COVID-19.""" # ivermectin: retracted article: hill 2021 Hill et al 2021: was forced to retract because of a large fraudulent study, which supported Ivermectin's efficacy: retraction: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/975932660029489262/unknown.png Hill et al 2022: after correction, Ivermectin had no significant effect on survival during COVID: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/975933546164289606/unknown.png # ivermectin: retracted article: kory 2021 Kory 2021: was forced to correct because of a large fraudulent study, which supported Ivermectin's efficacy: correction: # ivermectin: retracted article: bryant 2021 Bryant 2021: has not yet retracted or corrected despite including fraudulent studies: #####c #####c ##### # # philosophy # #####o metaphysics external world: {non-skeptical realism, idealism, skepticism, ...} epistemology: {empiricism, rationalism, ...} epistemology of science: {scientific realism, structure realism, entity realism, instrumentalism, constructive empiricism / structuralism, general skepticism, positivism, ...} ##### # todo #####o see the big names of today like Lewis, Armstrong, Kripke, van Inwagen #####c ##### # mind-independent external reality #####o # summary of questions 1: Existence: Does an external reality exist? --> ER existence question 2: Mind-independence: Does the ER exist independent of our thoughts/perceptions of it? --> Realism part 1, mind-independent external reality quesiton 3: Knowability: Can we reliably obtain knowledge about the MIER? --> Realism part 2, see empiricism or scientific realism sections # summary of viewpoints Idealism: Hold that a mind-independent world exists, but that our senses, regardless of their reliability, don’t perceive “true” reality Skepticism: Hold that our senses are not generally reliable about the external world Naive realism holds that our senses are universally/always reliable the external world Non-skeptical realism: Non-skeptical realism holds that our senses are usually/often reliable # philpapers survey results: MIEW exists Existence: Idealism (4.3% target faculty, 1.9% epistemology AOS), Skepticism (4.8%, 9.4%), Non-skeptical realism (81.6%, 84.4%) https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/804560844050268160/unknown.png target faculty = faculty at 99 leading PhD-granting programs, AOS = area of study #####c ##### # scientific realism #####o # survey results # relevant terms Coherentism: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coherentism Correspondence: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correspondence_theory_of_truth Structuralism: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structuralism_(philosophy_of_science) Constructive empricism: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constructive_empiricism Ramsey sentence: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramsey_sentence Confirmation theory: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/confirmation/ # park 2019 Park 2019: descriptive realism from NMA: current scientific theories perform better than chance, ergo scientific theories are true: Descriptive realism would be true if T [a strong, current scientific theory] is as descriptive realism holds it to be, i.e., if T is true, and false if T is not as descriptive realism holds it to be, i.e., if T is false. T is directly rendered true or false by the world. Consequently, descriptive realism is indirectly rendered true or false by the world. Park 2019: normative realism from NMA: current scientific theories perform better than chance, ergo scientific theories are warranted: By contrast, normative realism, because it is a normative thesis, is not capable of being true or false. Even if T [a strong, current scientific theory] happens to be true, it is an open question whether it is warranted or not, as will become clear in the next section. Park 2019: descriptive pessimism from NMA: past scientific theories were false, ergo present scientific theories are false: The descriptive PI holds that just as T1 [a past scientific theory] was false, so T2 [a current scientific theory] is false, where the former is a past theory and the latter is a present theory. This version of the PI can be inferred from Putnam’s formulation of the PI that “Just as no term used in the science of more than fifty (or whatever) years ago referred, so it will turn out that no term used now (except maybe observational terms, if there are such) refers” (1978: 25). The descriptive PI can also be inferred from Stathis Psillos’s formulation of the PI that “if most past successful scientific theories turned out to be false, then, by induction on scientific theories, one must not just remain agnostic, but rather claim that current successful scientific theories are likely to be false” (1995: 16). Keep in mind that the descriptive PI asserts that T2 is false. Park 2019: descriptive pessimism from NMA: past scientific theories were unwarranted, ergo present scientific theories are unwarranted: In contrast, the normative PI holds that just as T1 [a past scientific theory] was unwarranted, so T2 [a current scientific theory] is unwarranted. The normative PI is neutral about the truth-value of T2. It says that T2 might be true, and that even though T2 is true, we cannot justifiably believe that it is true. No one has directly formulated the PI in this manner in the literature. It, however, can be inferred from James Ladyman’s formulation that “reflection on the abandonment of theories in the history of science motivates the expectation that our best current scientific theories will themselves be abandoned, and hence that we ought not to assent to them” (Ladyman, 2014). To say that we ought not to assent to present theories is to say that T2 is unwarranted. #####c ##### # misc epistemology stuff #####o # empiricism survey : https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/804560862236114984/unknown.png # principles ontological parsimony: """For example, according to your quotation, the author thinks that positing a noumenal realm does not give any theoretical benefits. So they think that it is better to be ontologically parsimonious and not posit it in the first place. It's generally thought that one does not need to show that a theoretical idea includes a blatant contradiction to choose to not endorse it. There are other epistemic virtues/vices like ontological parsimony, ideological parsimony, being in line with intuitions or current scientific understanding, etc.""" principle of explosion: # epistemology of science conditions for interpreting quasi-experimental evidence as epistemic evidence: criteria for distinguishing pseudo-sciences from sciences: # determinism: quantum is truly random quantum mechanics is genuinely random -- it does not appear possible to interpret it as deterministic: Most researchers on the foundations of quantum mechanics, however, usually side-step this question by taking the operationalist point of view. Tagline: "all we have is some procedures for setting up an experiment and the results of experiments". In this framework, you can derive Bell's theorem, which says that any phenomenon that is both deterministic and local must satisfy the Bell inequality. Quantum mechanics violates the Bell inequality (and there have been many experiments that mostly confirm this violation, there are some technical loopholes that need to be addressed in some of the experiments). This means that you must give up at least one: locality or determinism. Since without locality it becomes impossible to talk about causality, most people prefer not to give it up, and instead give up determinism. violation of the Bell inequality: #####c ##### # misc morality stuff #####o # utilitarianism: public policy applying the utilitarian imperative in law --> justification for slow change over time: #####c #####c ##### # # evolution is true and young-earth creationism is insane # #####o ##### # evidence for macroevolution #####o # examples of observed macroevolution Herron et al 2019: observed evolution of multicellular life: in response to predators, within 750 generations, a previously unicellular green alga evolved into multicellular structures: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1045592138525712434/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1045592283766083614/image.png """Survival assays show that evolved multicellular traits provide effective protection against predation. These results support the hypothesis that selection imposed by predators may have played a role in some origins of multicellularity""" #####c #####c ##### # # death toll resources # #####o ##### # political prisoners / prisoners of conscience in the united states #####o # terminology A political prisoner is anyone convicted for political beliefs or behavior that would not otherwise be illegal. A prisoner of conscience is a nonviolent political prisoner. # wiki Amnesty International: draft: # notes Halsey 1988: Undue Process in Christianity in Crisis Taubner 1992: Gay 2012: American dissidents: an encyclopedia of activists, subversives, and prisoners of conscience [only volume 2 K-Z available] Meyer 2008: Amnesty International USA report 1995: United States of America: Human rights violations: a summary of Amnesty International’s concerns """The right to freedom of thought and expression is well-established in US law. Nevertheless, Amnesty International has worked on behalf of prisoners of conscience in the USA, most recently in 1991-1992 when it campaigned for the release of more than 30 military personnel imprisoned for their conscientious objection to the Gulf War.38"""""" Amnesty International Annual Report 1974/75: Amnesty International Annual Report 1972/73: Steinert 2009: Newsweek 1978: """Are there political prisoners in the US? During the trial of Soviet dissident Anatoly Shcharansky, United Nations Ambassador Andrew Young whipped up a controversy when he told a French newspaper that there are "hundreds, maybe thousands, of people I would categorize as political prisoners" in the US Young later said he did not mean to equate political freedom in the US and the Soviet Union. But he did not retract his statement about the number of U. S. political prisoners - even though he never said exactly what he meant.""""""THE WILMINGTON TEN""""""THE CHARLOTTE THREE""" Congressional Record containing full transcript of the relevant section of that interview: """Yes, but judging Scharansky is one thing that is probably an act of defiance and independence on their part but they wm continue to negotiate arms limitationsand there's no tell1ng what's liable to happen. We still have hundreds of people that I would categorize as political prisoners in our prisons. Maybe even thousands, depending on how you categorize them. During the war in Vietnam, whenever there was domestic pressure, most of these young people who went to jail for conscience were political prisoners. Where they had good legal assistance most of the time they got free. Our political system, especially our court system, does have a great deal more flexibility in it, but you still have to fight for it.""" NYTimes 1978: """The Governor, elected as a New South liberal, was speaking specifically about notoriety surrounding the case of the so-called Wilmington 10, nine black activists (the 10th has been paroled) who have fired an international furor with their contention that they are political prisoners railroaded into jail for their civil rights activities. Amnesty International, the London-based human rights organization that was awarded the 1977 Nobel Peace Prize has lent its name to their cause, listing them among 18 so-called “prisoners of conscience” incarcerated in the United States. Two other black activists, convicted of burning a horse stable in 1972, are also on the list, meaning that North Carolina alone accounts for 11 of the 18 prisoners on Amnesty International's American list.""" NYTimes 1978: criticizing Amnesty International for having a communits as a director of research: Amnesty International in NYTimes 1978: criticizing NYTimes for thinking that communists can't identify political repression, noting that the Soviets too accuse Amnesty International of bias: #####c ##### # useful soviet original documents [and compilations/tabulations thereof] #####o # sources Zemskov 1991: ГУЛАГ (историко-социологический аспект) [Gulag Istoriko-sotsiologicheskii aspekt] """Таблица 1. Численность заключенных ГУЛАГа (по состоянию на 1 января каждого года)[5]""""""Tablitsa 1. Chislennost' zaklyuchennykh GULAGa (po sostoyaniyu na 1 yanvarya kazhdogo goda)[5]""""""Table 1. The number of prisoners in the Gulag (as of January 1 of each year)[5]""" Zemskov [Земсков] 1994: table of people sentenced for counter-revolutionary behavior and especially dangerous state crimes: Политические репрессии в СССР [Politicheskiye repressii v SSSR] (1917-1990 гг.). """Число осужденных за контрреволюционные и другие особо опасные государственные преступления в 1921-1953 гг.iv[4] // Всего осуждено (чел.) // Высшая мера // Лагеря колонии и тюрьмы // Ссылка и высылка // Прочие меры // первое полугодие""""""iv[4] ГАРФ. Коллекция документов; Попов В.П. Государственный террор в советской России. 1923-1953 гг.: источники и их интерпретация / Отечественные архивы, 1992, № 2. С. 28.""""""The number of those convicted for counter-revolutionary and other especially dangerous state crimes in 1921-1953 iv[4] // Total condemned (persons) // Highest punishment // Camps of the colony and prison // Exile and exile // Other measures // first semester""""""iv[4] GARF. Collection of documents; Popov V.P. State terror in Soviet Russia. 1923-1953: sources and their interpretation / Otechestvennye archives, 1992, No. 2. P. 28.""" Mironenko Werth 2004: История сталинского Гулага. Конец 1920–х — первая половина 1950–х годов. Собрание документов в 7 томах. Том 1. Массовые репрессии в СССР [Massovye Repressii v SSSR / Mass Repression in the USSR] # tables Mironenko Werth 2004 p607: number of people executed by military courts: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072639571029917808/image.png История сталинского Гулага. Конец 1920–х — первая половина 1950–х годов. Собрание документов в 7 томах. Том 1. Массовые репрессии в СССР [Massovye Repressii v SSSR / Mass Repression in the USSR] """Согласно этим данным, до 1913 года в России казнено по приговорам военно-окружных судов: 1901 1905 rr. - 93 чел. 1906 574 1909 г. 717 1910 129 1907 1908 1 1139 1340 1911 - 73 1912 - 126 По вычислению же тюремного врача Жбанкова за период с 1905 по 1912 год в России было приговорено к смертной казни 7793 человека, а по ут- верждению другого автора - Клокова, число осужденных к смертной казни за период с 1906 по 1909 год определяется цифрой 6268 человек. В упомянутой книге «Смертная казнь», указывается, что число казненных в России за один только 1908 год «значительно превышает сумму казненных во всех европейских и американских государствах вместе взятых». Приложение: а) сведения о числе осужденных в СССР за период с 1940 по Июнь 1955 года; б) сведения о числе осужденных в быв. царской России за период с 1900 по 1913 год. Зав. отделом ГА РФ. Ф. Р-7523. Оп. 89. Д. 4408. Л. 1-5. Подлинник. И.Бабухин""""""According to these data, before 1913 in Russia, executions were carried out according to the verdicts of the military district courts: 1901 1905 rr. - 93 people 1906 574 1909 717 1910 129 1907 1908 1 1139 1340 1911 - 73 1912 - 126 According to the calculation of the prison doctor Zhbankov for the period from 1905 to 1912, 7793 people were sentenced to death in Russia, and according to another author - Klokov, the number of those sentenced to death for the period from 1906 to 1909 is determined by the figure of 6268 people. In the mentioned book "The Death Penalty", it is indicated that the number of those executed in Russia in 1908 alone "significantly exceeds the sum of those executed in all European and American states combined." Appendix: a) information on the number of convicts in the USSR for the period from 1940 to June 1955; b) information on the number of convicts in the former. Tsarist Russia for the period from 1900 to 1913. Head department of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation. F. R-7523. Op. 89. D. 4408. L. 1-5. Script. I. Babukhin""" #####c ##### # soviet death toll before stalin #####o # purge of 1921 the Purge of 1921 was not lethal: # resolution on the red terror Совет Народных Комиссаров, заслушав доклад председателя Чрезвычайной комиссии по борьбе с контрреволюцией о деятельности этой комиссии: # red terror: from 50k to 200k In Crimea, Béla Kun and Rosalia Zemlyachka, with Vladimir Lenin's approval,[28] had 50,000 White prisoners of war and civilians summarily executed by shooting or hanging after the defeat of general Pyotr Wrangel at the end of 1920. They had been promised amnesty if they would surrender.[29] This is one of the largest massacres in the Civil War.[30] Lincoln 1989: 100,000 is "reasonable estimate", merely cites Chamberlin 1935, Gerson 1976, Legget 1981: """Although they do not take into account those killed when the Cheka suppressed hundreds of insurrections against Soviet authority, the best estimates set the probable number of executions at about a hundred thousand,123 or about seven times the number killed by the tsarist government during the entire century before the Revolution. That staggering statistic becomes even more appalling if we remember that it does not include those who died in Cheka prisons from disease, hunger, or beatings. To this day, it remains impossible to do more than guess at the number of men, women, and children whose lives were snuffed out by the Cheka between 1918 and 1921.""""""[citation] 123. Chamberlin, II, p. 75; Gerson, pp. 172-176; Leggett, pp. 466-468.""" Gerson 1976: covers a report of 3879 executions by the Cheka and of "banditry", often by demobilized Red Army soldiers: The secret police in Lenin's Russia """The VCheka leadership, apparently having concluded that the publication of even incomplete statistics on executions carried out under its aegis only damaged the prestige of the Soviet government, offered no information on the scope of secret police repression during the first year of the bloodless front. Some idea of the extent of sanguinary events may, however, be gauged from a confidential document entitled "A Report of the Central Administration of the Extraordinary Commissions attached to the Council of People's Commissars of the Ukraine for 1920." According to this report, which was prepared for the edification of delegates to the Fifth All-Ukrainian Congress of Soviets in February 1921 and covered an area that witnessed some of the bitterest fighting of the year, the Chekists executed 3,879 persons. The Crimean port of Odessa accounted for 1,418 of the victims, far more than any of the other major population centers of the region. 85 So ended the first year on the bloodless front.""""""In its full extent, the bandit plague embraced both the central and outlying provinces of the country. In the Ukraine it was reported that banditry in the early months of 1921 had taken "the shape of a fierce struggle against Soviet power" and had resulted in substantial damage to the economic life of the region. The bandits were concentrating their attacks on tax-collecting and food-requisitioning personnel, grain-collecting stations, and rail transport. By the end of the year, according to figures that were admitted to be far from complete, 3,785 persons had been killed by bandits in the Ukraine, 1,475 abducted, and 745 wounded. Moreover, there had been almost 1,400 attacks on populated areas, 259 attacks on Soviet governmental agencies, and 145 at- tacks on tax-collecting organs. 98 Nationwide, in April 1921 , it was estimated that 165 large marauding bands numbering 51,000 men were plundering the Soviet countryside. The situation was so grave that thirty-six provinces remained under martial law until the end of 1922. 99""" Leggett 1981: estimates about 280,000 deaths, 140,000 of which from suppression of rebellion and 140,000 of which from execution: The Cheka : Lenin's political police: the all-Russian extraordinary commission for combating counter-revolution and sabotage, December 1917 to February 1922: Appendix C """The Chekas contributed signally to the consolidation of Soviet power, but at a terrible cost. To reckon that cost accurately in terms of human lives would be an impossible task; at most one can attempt the broadest of estimates. No pertinent comprehensive official statistics are available; the semi-official figures presented by Latsis are neither complete nor dependable.""""""The carnage continued after the Civil War: over the period 1920-2, regular mass exterminations by shooting or by drowning in barges (a convenient method, much favoured by the Chekas)14 on the River Dvina took place near two concentration camps, Kholmogory and Pertominsk in Archangel Province; the victims (who included countless White Army prisoners, 2,000 Kronstadt rebels and many thousands of insurgents captured in Tambov Province, in the Ukraine, and in Siberia) reputedly numbered around 100,000,15 and certainly ran into several scores of thousands.""""""Surveying the available evidence and allowing both for exaggeration by witnesses and for all the slaughter that must have gone unreported, one is led to surmise that the total number of victims of the massive Cheka apparatus and Internal Security Troops throughout Sovietcontrolled territory, over the four-year period December 1917-February 1922, may have been in the region of 280,000, of whom perhaps half perished through execution and half in the suppression of insurrection. This Figure is broadly in line with certain other estimates. Vladimir Brunovskii, an agronomist employed in senior Soviet administrative posts,33 and himself an OGPU prisoner during 1923-6, reported that in the opinion of top Communist Party circles, the Vecheka had been responsible for ‘not less than 250,000 and not more than 300,000 deaths’.34 Although Brunovskii referred here specifically to the Vecheka, he probably meant to include the other republican Chekas in this assessment, which presumably covered deliberate executions as well as deaths incurred in insurrections.""" Leggett 1981: 200,000 executions in total, 140,000 of which by the Cheka and Internal Security Troops; citation goes to Conquest 1971, examines death tolls in Appendix C: The Cheka : Lenin's political police: the all-Russian extraordinary commission for combating counter-revolution and sabotage, December 1917 to February 1922 """Even more striking is the contrast between the number of executions occurring during the last fifty years of Tsarist rule, estimated by one authority (on the basis of the most generous Soviet sources of information) at not more than 14,000, and, on the other hand, those effected during the six years under Lenin, estimated by the same authority at not less than 200,000.30 If we deduct executions caused by non-Chekist agencies, and limit ourselves to the Vecheka period, we may arrive at an estimate of perhaps 140,000 executions attributable to the Chekas of the various Soviet republics and to the Internal Security Troops under Vecheka control.31""""""29 Gerson, p. 228. 30 Conquest, ‘The Human Cost of Soviet Communism’, pp. 22-3—see App. C. Conquest's figures relate, throughout, to the whole of Soviet-controlled territory, not just the RSFSR.""" Ryan 2012: 140,000 (28,000 per year), just cites Gregory 2009: Lenin's Terror: the Ideological Origins of Early Soviet State Violence """The bulk of Soviet state violence was committed during the 25-year rule of Stalin but between December 1917 and February 1922 – during the rule of his predecessor, Lenin – there were, at lowest estimates, 28,000 executions (excluding battlefi eld deaths) on average per year directly attributable to the Soviet state, a sharp contrast with the approximate total fi gure of 14,000 executed by the Russian Tsarist regime between 1866 and 1917. This figure approximates with that of the years of ‘dekulakization’ in the early 1930s, though it is considerably below the average of the bloodiest years of Stalinism.4 [...] [citation 4:] Paul R. Gregory, Terror by Quota. State Security from Lenin to Stalin: an Archival Study, New Haven: Yale University Press, 2009, p. 29.""" Gregory 2009: 140,000, just divides the number of violent deaths (given as 280,000) by two: Terror by quota : state security from Lenin to Stalin: (an archival study) """Brutal repression preceded Stalin. It is difficult to compare the number of executions under Lenin with those that followed under Stalin. A ballpark figure for the period December 1917 to February 1922 would be 280,000 violent deaths, some half of which occurred in battle, leaving 140,000 executed in the course of the Bolshevik takeover and the Civil War, for an average of 28,000 per year. Although the average number of executions under Lenin was well below that of the peak years of Stalinist repression, it is on a par with executions from other years of Stalin’s reign.""""""The post-Stalin leadership was aware that Stalinist repression was not simply an extension of past policies. A December 1955 report prepared on the eve of Khrushchev’s secret speech cites the most authoritative study of the death penalty in tsarist Russia and concludes that the “number of people executed for political offenses by regional-military courts between 1901 and 1912 [gives numbers for each year] equals 4,191.”64 [citation 64:] 64. Vert and Mironenko, Massovye repressii v SSSR, 606–607.""" ^ Gregory 2009: gives table estimating 110 million deaths from Marxist-Leninist governments: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072623930713591918/image.png """Source: Gunnar Heinsohn, Lexikon der Völkermorde (Hamburg: Rowohlt, 1998), p. 53. The author uses the 1948 United Nations definition of genocide to include direct killings and also killing by failing to provide aid and assistance during famine.""" Stone 2013: 50,000-140,000, just cites Mayer 2000 and Pipes 1990: The anatomy of revolution revisited: a comparative analysis of England, France, and Russia """On the first point, one of the lowest estimates (unsurprisingly) came in 1921 from Soviet authorities, who held that from 1917 through 1920 the Cheka had executed somewhat more than 12,700 individuals.44 Richard Pipes, on the other hand, has quoted one scholarly estimate of 50,000 victims of the Red Terror, and another of as many as 140,000. “All one can say with any assurance is that if the victims of Jacobin terror numbered in the thousands, Lenin’s terror claimed tens if not hundreds of thousands.”45 [....] It is, perhaps, best to sum up Russian issues in the manner of Arno Mayer: “All these estimates are a mixture of incomplete or flawed data and informed conjectures. Such is likely to continue to be the case even after the surviving Cheka and other archives of the ex-Soviet Union become accessible. For certain, the toll in lives was very heavy, probably corresponding to that in the French Revolution in terms of the proportion of the total population. The contrary would be surprising, given the intensity as well as the extent and duration of the Russian civil war.”46""""""[citation:] 44 A figure cited in Mayer, The Furies, p. 310. [citation:] 45 Richard Pipes, The Russian Revolution (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1990), p. 838.""" Mayer 2000: cites three estimates: one in 1935 [Chamberlin 1935], one in 1971 [Conquest 1971], one in 1981 [Leggett 1981]: The Furies: Violence and Terror in the French and Russian Revolutions """Calculations of the number of people who died at the hands of the Red Terror in Russia differ by similar orders of magnitude. Not surprisingly, in 1921 Soviet authorities published the lowest figure: they claimed that from 1917 through 1920 the Cheka had executed slightly over 12,700 individuals. Fifty years later (1971) it was estimated that 200,000 people had been executed between 1917 and 1923, while an additional 300,000 to 400,000 were said to either have died in prisons and camps or been killed in the suppression of peasant revolts, industrial strikes, and military mutinies. Other rough measures range between these two extremes, one (1935) setting the total for the civil war at 50,000, and another (1981) at 140,000. All these estimates are a mixture of incomplete or flawed data and informed conjectures. Such is likely to continue to be the case even after the surviving Cheka and other archives of the ex-Soviet Union become accessible. For certain, the toll in lives was very heavy, probably corresponding to that in the French Revolution in terms of the proportion of the total population. The contrary would be surprising given the intensity as well as the extent and duration of the Russian civil war.199""""""199. Geoffrey Hosking, The First Socialist Society: A History of the Soviet Union from Within, enlarged ed. (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1990), p. 71; Chamberlin, Russian Revolution, pp. 74–75; Mawdsley, Civil War, p. 286. Nothing justifies the judgment that “all one can say with any assurance is that if the victims of the Jacobin terror numbered in the thousands, Lenin’s terror claimed tens if not hundreds of thousands of lives” (Pipes, Russian Revolution, p. 838). This reading does not seem to take account of the victims of the civil war in the Vende´e and the repossession of the cities of the Midi whose number greatly exceeded those of the Great Terror of the guillotine. Besides, any such global comparison should perhaps also note that France’s population in 1789 was one-sixth of Russia’s in 1917, which makes the number of victims of the Jacobin terror proportionately higher than those of the first Red terror under Lenin.""" Pipes 2019 / 2011 / 1993 / 1990: estimates range from 50,000 to 140,000: no citations given: """The Red Terror had many aspects, but the historian’s first and foremost concern must be with its victims. Their number cannot be established even approximately; estimates range from 50,000 to 140,000. All one can say with certainty is that if the victims of the Jacobin terror numbered in the thousands, Lenin’s terror claimed tens of thousands of lives. The casualties of the next wave of terror, launched by Stalin and Hitler, would be counted in the millions.""" Lowe 2002: gives range of 50,000 to 200,000 plus 400,000 in prison/suppression; no citations given: """In addition there were the victims among the civilian population and the people killed in both the Red and White Terrors. No figures are given for victims of the White Terror, but taking into account the White operations against the Greens and against peasant partisans, and the White anti-Je wish pogroms, the total number must have been in the tens of thousands. Estimates for those killed in the Red Terror vary widely: the lowest figure given is 50,000 and the highest a figure of 200,000 executed, plus 400,000 who died in prison or were killed in the suppression of anti-Red revolts""" Conquest 1971: claims 200000 "official executions" (contrast: Chamberlin suggests 50,000 based on two official sources) plus 300,000 deaths from suppression of rebellions and deaths in prisons/camps between 1917 and 1923: The Human Cost of Soviet Communism: Document 92–36, Committee on the Judiciary, US Senate """These casualties might be labeled as resulting from the revolution in a general sense. But the figures for actual execution (and death in camps and prisons) of the period up till 1924 is of course far lower. Though official figures are both self-contradictory and admittedly incomplete, it can be deduced that a minimum of 200,000 official executions must have taken place in the period 1917-23. This omits two main sources of death. First, those shot out of hand after the putting down of various “rebellions”—245 such risings are officially given for 1918 alone, while 99 are listed in only 20 provinces (constituting about a third of Bolshevik-controlled territory) in 7 months of 1919. And second, those dying as a result of prison and camp treatment. Together, these are conservatively estimated to have accounted for at least twice as many lives as the executions proper. If we put forward a total of 500,000 victims for the period we shall certainly be erring on the side of underestimation.21 It is, of course, true that — million of the most intransigent of the regime’s opponents had escaped into exile (and the executions in the Crimea, after the hasty final evacuation had left behind a particularly large concentration of bourgeois and white guards, was by far the most unrestrained of all the Bolshevik terror operations.)""" Mawdsley 1987: provides table of four citations (Latsis 1921, Chamberlin 1935, Leggett 1981, Conquest 1971) and deathcounts (12733, 50,000, 140,000, 2100,000): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1072648528737861642/image.png The Russian Civil War Latsis 1921, 12733 (1917-1920 Cheka only); Chamberlin 1935, 50000 ("Civil War"; Leggett 1981, 140000 Dec 1917-Feb 1922; Conquest 1971, 200000 1917-1923, "as many as 400000 died in prison or killed in suppression of anti-Soviet revolts") """It is even more difficult to number the victims of ‘internal fighting’ and of Red and White Terror.The following are four estimates of those who died at the hands of the Soviet government: 25 Latsis’s figures seem too low, and Conquest’s too high, but one can only guess. The figures for White Terror are even more difficult. The Bolshevik underground was broken up in the White cities, there were operations against peasant partisans in Siberia, and pogroms in the west-central Ukraine; the victims must have numbered in the tens of thousands.""""""[citation: ]25 Latsis, 1921, p. 9; Chamberlin, 2: 75; Leggett, pp. 466–467; Conquest, 1971, p. 11.""""""Latsis, M. Ia. (1921). Chrezvychainye komissii po bor’be s kontrrevoliutsiei. Moscow""""""Leggett, George (1981). The Cheka: Lenin’s Political Police. Oxford.""" Latsis / Latzis [Лацис / Судрабс]: Чрезвычайные комиссии по борьбе с контрреволюцией / [Chrezvychaĭnye komissii po borʹbe s kontr-revoli︠u︡t︠s︡ieĭ] [Chrezvychainye komissii po borbe s kontrrevoliutsiei] [Extraordinary Commissions for Combating Counter-Revolution] # chamberlin's discussion (probably the best of all of the above) Chamberlin 1935: discusses Latzis' estimates as severe underestimates: """M. Y. Latzis, a prominent Chekist, states " that 12,733 persons were shot in all Russia by the Cheka during the first three years of its existence, which would cover the whole period of the civil war. But there are very strong reasons for regarding this figure as a gross underestimate. The same Latzis, in another work,15 asserts that the Cheka, during 1918 and the first seven months of 1919, shot 8,389 people only in twenty provinces of Central Russia (my italics). Now there were other parts of Russia where the civil war was much more protracted and fierce than in Central Russia, and where the number of victims of terrorism must have been far greater. There was Ukraina, where the peasantry, being more well-to-do and more attached to the homestead system, fought much more stubbornly against Bolshevism than the poorer peasants of Central Russia. There was the Ural Territory, where, by general agreement, there was a savage struggle, marked by wholesale killings on both sides. There were the Don and Kuban Territories, strongholds of the White movement, where the dissatisfaction of the Cossacks certainly created an abundance of work for the local Chekas. Many Russians are convinced that the victims of BeIa Kun and Zemlyachka in the Crimea run into tens of thousands. There is certainly every probability that they were numbered in thousands.16 As has been pointed out, large-scale organized terror began only in July, 1918. With the Cheka admitting 8,389 executions in twenty provinces of Central Russia during the first year of a struggle that lasted for approximately two and a half years, and with the struggle often most bitter just in outlying parts of the country, it is simply impossible to believe that the Cheka only put to death 12,733 people in all Russia up to the end of the civil war.""" Chamberlin 1935: discusses his own estimate of 50,000 (~4000 were killed in 1 of 3 years of war in location with 1 of 5 people in Russia, so 4000*3*5=60,000): """While any estimate, in view of the lack of reliable data, must be highly conjectural and approximate, I should consider it probable that about fifty thousand persons were put to death in the course of the Red Terror during the period of the civil war. This, of course, would not include insurgents who were shot down with arms in their hands or people who were killed by mobs or by uncontrolled bands of soldiers and sailors. Some confirmation of the probability of my approximate estimate of fifty thousand as the number of persons put to death by the Cheka and definite refutation of Latzis's much lower figure are furnished by an interesting document in the possession of the Russian Foreign Archive in Prague. This document bears the title: "Otchet Tsentralnogo Upravlenie Chrezvichainnikh Komissii pri Sovnarkome Ukraini za 1920 God" (Report of the Extraordinary Commissions under the Council of People's Commissars of Ukraina for 1920) and was published in Kharkov in 1921. This report states that, during 1920, 3,879 persons were shot by the Extraordinary Commissions in Ukraina, the Odessa Cheka making the most sanguinary record with 1,418 executions and the Kiev Cheka following with 538. If almost four thousand persons are officially stated to have been put to death by the Cheka in Ukraina in one of the three years of civil war (Ukraina contains about a fifth of the population of the entire area affected by civil war), it would seem that fifty thousand is a reasonable and probably moderate estimate of the total number of victims of Red Terror.""" Chamberlin 1935: discusses Latzis' estimates as severe underestimates: """Some time after the civil war was over a story began to circulate that the Bolsheviki had put to death over 1,700,000 persons during the Terror. It was not supported by any documentary proof; and, on the basis of the available evidence, it would seem to be a wild exaggeration, just as the statement of Latzis, the Cheka official and apologist, is, in all probability, a substantial understatement. In general, it should be noted that, while an abundance of ghastly and revolting atrocities were certainly committed on both sides, Red and White authors alike, with a few exceptions, display a tendency greatly to exaggerate the numbers of persons killed by their opponents, while minimizing or glossing over the terroristic activities of their own side.""" # red terror: pogroms Manus 2005: anti-Jewish violence killed 150,000 Jewish people; the Red armies killed 3,450 (2.3%); the White armies killed 106,050 (70.7%); and local bands or other armies 40,500 (27%): """It has been estimated that between 1918 and 1920 as many as 150,000 Jews were murdered by Bolshevik armies (2.3 percent), Petlura’s Ukrainian nationalists (53.7 percent), and Denikin’s Volunteer Army (17 percent). The remainder was killed by local bands of renegade soldiers and other anti-Semites.6 These estimates include deaths due to massacre-induced disease or starvation. More recent estimates based on newly available Russian records judge the percentage killed by the Volunteer Army to be much higher, perhaps as high as 50 percent.7 [....] 6 Gergel 1951, cited in Vital 1999, 722. 7 Kenez 1992, 302. [....] Gergel, N. 1951. “The Pogroms in the Ukraine in 1918-1921.” YIVO Annual of Jewish Social Science 6: 237-52. [....] Vital, David. 1999. A People Apart: The Jews in Europe, 1789-1939. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [....] Kenez, Peter. 1992. “Pogroms and White Ideology in the Russian Civil War,” in John D. Klier and Shlomo Lambroza, eds., Pogroms: Anti-Jewish Violence in Modem Russian History. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 293-313.""" ^ Gergel: Abramson 2010: anti-Jewish violence killed 50,000 Jewish people; the Red armies caused 9% of pogroms (50000 * 0.09 * 0.0273 = 123 total); the White armies (50000 * 0.17 * 0.758 = 6,443 total); Ukrainian armies and locals (50000 * 0.74 * 1.152 = 42,624): average: 7*.09+25*.17+38*(.49+.25)=33; Red deflator 0.273, White deflator 0.758, Ukrainian deflator 1.152 """Early in the Civil War, attacks on minority populations such as Poles, Mennonites, and especially Jews became a prominent feature of the turmoil. The scope and violence of these assaults dwarfed the pogrom waves of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, and with an estimated 50,000 Jews killed, these pogroms represented a greater degree of devastation than even the seventeenth-century rebellion under Bohdan Khmel’nyts’kyi (known as gzeyres takh vetat). Ukrainian forces, nominally under the control of Symon Petliura, perpetrated approximately 40 percent of the recorded pogroms. Although Petliura never ordered his forces to engage in such activity and eventually exhorted his troops to refrain from the violence, his initial reaction to the attacks in early 1919 was characterized by relative inaction. Jews widely regarded Petliura as the person principally responsible for the pogroms; his 1926 assassination in Paris by a Bessarabian Jew seeking vengeance made world headlines. Approximately 25 percent of the pogroms were perpetrated by “independents”—local hooligans and gang leaders who took advantage of the anarchy to despoil local minority populations. The White Army is associated with 17 percent of the attacks, and was generally responsible for the most active propaganda campaign against Jews, whom they openly associated with communism. The Red Army, under the direction of Leon Trotsky, was specifically charged not to attack Jewish populations, and indeed Soviet troops are blamed for only 9 percent of the pogroms. Furthermore, statistical evidence indicates that pogroms perpetrated by Red Army troops were milder in nature: whereas an average of 38 people were murdered in every Ukrainian pogrom, and 25 people per White Army pogrom, only 7 people were killed in the typical Red Army pogrom. [....] Henry Abramson, A Prayer for the Government: Ukrainians and Jews in Revolutionary Times, 1917–1920 (Cambridge, Mass., 1999); I. M. Cherikover (Elias Tcherikower), Antisemitizm un pogromen in Ukraine, 1917–1918: Tsu der geshikhte fun ukrainish-yidishe batsiungen (Berlin, 1923); I. M. Cherikover, Di ukrainer pogromen in yor 1919 (New York, 1965).""" # white terror: pogroms Lowe 2002: White forces may have killed as many as 200,000 Jewish people in Ukraine in 1919: """During 1906 the tsarist regime carried out a harsh campaign against those who had taken part in the uprisings - estimates put the number executed at 15,000, with 20,000 shot or wounded and 45,000 exiled. The right-wing Black Hundreds waged campaigns of terror against Jews - over 3000 were murdered in the two weeks following the announcement of the October Manifesto in 1905. There were more anti-Jewish pogroms during the Civil War - some sources suggest that during 1919 in Ukraine alone, as many as 200,000 Jews were murdered by White forces.19 Not that any of this excuses the Bolshevik terror, particularly since they claimed to have humanitarian ideals, but it certainly goes a long way towards explaining it.""" Chamberlin 1935: various estimates of pogroms during the Civil War: """It is obviously impossible to determine with any exactitude the number of pogrom victims during such a period of chaotic upheaval. S. Gusev-Orenburgsky, in his "Book about Jewish Pogroms in Ukraina in 1919" (p. 14), expresses the view that no fewer than 100,000 people perished as a result of pogroms. He asserts that detailed figures show 35,000 deaths and cites estimated numbers of victims in about thirty of the largest pogroms, totalling more than 10,000. E. Heifetz, chairman of the All-Ukrainian Relief Committee for Victims of Pogroms, in his book, "Material Gathered by the All-Ukrainian Committee for the Relief of Victims of Pogroms" (pp. 176ff.), first estimates that 15,000 were killed by Petlurist regular troops, an equal number by the leaders of guerrilla bands and 500 by Red troops, then characterizes this figure as an underestimate and suggests that the grand total of victims would show 70,000 killed by the Ukrainian nationalists and 50,000 by Denikin's forces. Quite probably these vague estimates of 100,000 or more victims are exaggerated. But it is scarcely open to doubt that the Jews, because they were so often singled out for massacre, suffered proportionately more than other nationalities in the town population of Ukraina.""" # efficacy of makhno's forces Lowe 2002: Makhno's Black forces may have done as much as the Red forces to defeat the White forces in Ukraine: """Another problem for the Whites was harassment from the armies of anarchist irregulars known as Greens, who opposed all authority. They were specialists in guerrilla warfare and attacked both Reds and Whites. The most influential Green army was probably that led by the Ukrainian anarchist, Nestor Makhno, which at one point was thought to have numbered around 30,000 men. According to W.B. Lincoln, Makhno had a deep belief in an egalitarian revolutionary order. He was fighting for ‘a stateless communist society in which slavery will vanish and state authority will have no place, where the land belongs to nobody and it can be used only by those who care about it and cultivate it/ Makhno viewed Denikin as the greatest enemy, operating in the south - in the Ukraine, the Crimea and the Kuban - he and his partisan army did everything in their power to harass Denikin. They raided his ammunition dumps and destroyed vital reserves of shells just as he was about to launch his attack on Orel. They continued to attack his supply lines so successfully that Denikin was forced to detach troops to deal with them. An American pilot helping the Whites reported that 'Makhno was looting trains and depots with impunity, and White officialdom was losing what little control over the civilian population it had.’ In the end Makhno probably contributed as much to the defeat of Denikin as the Reds did.27""" # de-cossackization: 10k to 500k de-cossackization (may be included in the Red Terror): ^ Despite there being more than a million Cossacks before 1917, very few people consider themselves Cossacks today.[7] Shane O'Rourke states that the de-Cossackization "was one of the main factors which led to the disappearance of the Cossacks as a nation".[7] Alexander Nikolaevich Yakovlev, head of the Presidential Committee for the Rehabilitation of Victims of Political Repression, notes that "hundreds of thousands of Cossacks were killed".[20] Robert Gellately claims that "the most reliable estimates indicate that between 300,000 and 500,000 were killed or deported in 1919–20" out of a population of around three million.[19] The process has been described by scholar Peter Holquist as part of a "ruthless" and "radical attempt to eliminate undesirable social groups" that showed the Soviet regime's "dedication to social engineering".[10] [....] Peter Holquist states the overall number of executions is difficult to establish; in some regions, hundreds were executed, while the tribunal was very active in Khoper, with a one-month total of 226 executions. The Tsymlianskaia tribunal oversaw the execution of over 700 people. The Kotel'nikovo tribunal executed 117 in early May and nearly 1,000 overall. Others were not quite as active. The Berezovskaia tribunal made a total of twenty arrests in a community of 13,500 people. Holquist also notes that some of White reports of Red atrocities in the Don were consciously scripted for agitation purposes.[21] In one example, an insurgent leader reported that 140 were executed in Bokovskaia, but later provided a different account, according to which only eight people in Bokovskaia were sentenced to death, and the authorities did not manage to carry these sentences out. Holquist emphasizes that he is "not seeking to downplay or dismiss very real executions by the Soviets". Overall, he estimates a death toll of around 10,000 from de-Cossackization.[9] #####c ##### # stalin death toll #####o # nkvd prisoner massacres # destruction battalions Destruction battalions: ^ Hiio 2009: possible citation: Estonia Since 1944: Reports of the Estonian International Commission for the Investigation of Crimes Against Humanity [inaccessible todo] #####c ##### # black book of communism #####o # frequency of google search results 51,800 results for "100 million people killed": 26,900 results "black book of communism" "100 million": 157 results for a full quote ("The total approaches 100 million people killed") from the introduction (by Courtois): 6 results for a full quote from Chapter 1 (by Werth): # frequency of google ngram results Google Trends: Black Book of Communism, Stephane Courtois, Nicolas Werth: Google Trends: Black Book of Communism, Vladimir Lenin, Murray Bookchin, Peter Kropotkin, Karl Kautsky, Michael Harrington, Eugene Debs: Google Trends: Black Book of Communism,Vladimir Lenin,Michael Harrington,Joe Biden: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1139715732876308500/image.png # fallout between courtois and werth Behr et al 2020: Werth and Margolin were extremely upset with the introduction as written by Courtois and actively attempted to abandon the project: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1058640013363007518/image.png """A conflict arose between the co-authors in 1997 concerning the introduction. Courtois was supposed to write the conclusion, Furet the introduction. After Furet’s unexpected demise in July 1997, Courtois offered to also write the introduction. When he sent the text to his coauthors at the end of August 1997, Werth and Margolin objected to certain parts. Acting as mediator, Bartošek rewrote the most controversial sections of the text, while also deleting phrases that suggested an equivalence between the “class genocide” perpetrated by the Soviets and the “race genocide” of the Nazis. For his part, Paczkowski encouraged Courtois to clarify the concept of “class genocide” (Pleskot, 2019, p. 403), although he tacitly agreed with Courtois’s position (Paczkowski, 2001). Courtois refused the changes and this particular assertion remained in the text. Werth and Margolin subsequently decided to withdraw from the project and even contacted a lawyer who told them that it was too late to quit.""" # public criticism of courtois by the main authors of the soviet union and vietnam sections Chemin 31 October 1997 in Le Monde: Werth says Courtois had an "obsession with reaching one hundred million deaths"; for example, Werth suggested that the Soviet Union had 15 million victims, while Courteois added 5 (to reach 20 million) in his introduction; for another example, Margolin "never mentioned a million deaths in Vietnam" while Courtois puts the number at TODO: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1091954935437987880/image.png [cannot find full text] """Jean-Louis Margolin et Nicolas Werth reprochent à Stéphane Courtois de considérer « la dimension criminelle comme l'une des dimensions propres à l'ensemble du système communiste », ainsi qu'il l'écrit dans son texte. « Cela revient à enlever son caractère historique au phénomène, affirme Jean-Louis Margolin. Même si le terreau communiste peut aboutir aux crimes de masse, le lien entre doctrine et pratique n'est pas évident, contrairement à ce que dit Stéphane Courtois ». Contestant des « approximations », des « contradictions » et des « maladresses qui font sens », les deux auteurs reprochent à Stéphane Courtois son « obsession d'arriver aux cent millions de morts ». Nicolas Werth décompte ainsi quinze millions de victimes en URSS, quand Stéphane Courtois, dans son introduction, en ajoute cinq. M. Margolin explique « qu'il n'a jamais fait état d'un million de morts au Vietnam ». Ce dernier avait déjà réussi, il y a quelques semaines, à imposer à l'éditeur un changement de titre (l'ouvrage devait s'appeler Le Livre des crimes communistes) et a imposé un sous-titre : Crimes, terreurs, répressions.""""""Jean-Louis Margolin and Nicolas Werth criticize Stéphane Courtois for considering “the criminal dimension as one of the dimensions specific to the entire communist system”, as he writes in his text. "This amounts to removing its historical character from the phenomenon," says Jean-Louis Margolin. Even if the communist breeding ground can lead to mass crimes, the link between doctrine and practice is not obvious, contrary to what Stéphane Courtois says”. Disputing "approximations", "contradictions" and "clumsiness that make sense", the two authors criticize Stéphane Courtois for his "obsession with reaching one hundred million deaths". Nicolas Werth thus counts fifteen million victims in the USSR, when Stéphane Courtois, in his introduction, adds five. Mr. Margolin explains “that he never mentioned a million deaths in Vietnam”. The latter had already succeeded, a few weeks ago, in imposing on the publisher a change of title (the work was to be called The Book of Communist Crimes) and imposed a subtitle: Crimes, terrors, repressions.""" co-authors Margolin and Werth 14 November 1997 in Le Monde: [cannot find full text] """Les lecteurs du Monde n'ignorent pas la sévère controverse qui a opposé certains des auteurs du Livre noir du communisme, dont nous sommes, au rédacteur de son chapitre introductif, Stéphane Courtois. Rappelons seulement que les principaux points mis en cause par nous dans ce texte ont été : la centralité du crime de masse dans les pratiques répressives des communismes au pouvoir ; l'assimilation entre doctrine communiste et mise en application de celle-ci, ce qui fait remonter le crime jusqu'au coeur même de l'idéologie communiste ; l'affirmation qui en découle de la grande similitude du nazisme et du communisme, tous deux intrinsèquement criminels dans leur fondement même ; un chiffrage des victimes du communisme abusif, non clarifié (85 millions ? 95 ? 100 ?), non justifié, et contredisant formellement les résultats des coauteurs sur l'URSS, l'Asie et l'Europe de l'Est (de leurs études, on peut tirer une « fourchette » globale allant de 65 à 93 millions ; la moyenne 79 millions n'a de valeur que purement indicative).""""""The readers of Le Monde are not unaware of the severe controversy which led certain of the authors of the Black Book of Communism, of which we are, to oppose the editor of its introductory chapter, Stéphane Courtois. Let us simply recall that the main points questioned by us in this text were: the centrality of mass crime in the repressive practices of communisms in power; the assimilation between communist doctrine and its application, which brings the crime back to the very heart of communist ideology; the consequent affirmation of the great similarity of Nazism and Communism, both inherently criminal in their very foundation; a figure of the victims of abusive communism, not clarified (85 million? 95? 100?), not justified, and formally contradicting the results of the co-authors on the USSR, Asia and Eastern Europe (from their studies , we can derive an overall “range” from 65 to 93 million; the average 79 million is purely indicative).""" co-authors Margolin and Werth 14 November 1997 in Le Monde: [cannot find full text] """Dans l'histoire des pratiques répressives du communisme, nous avons tenté, en historiens, de repérer points communs et différences, continuités et discontinuités, moments paroxystiques et périodes de ressac, espaces de barbarie et aires de semi-liberté. Nous nous sommes efforcés de contextualiser aussi précisément que possible ces expériences si diverses. On n'y retrouvera pas à chaque page cette sanglante essence du communisme, une, indivisible et éternelle que Stéphane Courtois entend dénoncer. On y discernera par contre, et on y comprendra peut-être un peu mieux bon nombre des pires drames de ce siècle de fer, mais aussi, au-delà, ce que, des décennies durant, le tiers de l'humanité vécut d'insupportable. On y trouvera également des éléments de réponse à l'incontournable interrogation : comment l'espoir vira-t-il au cauchemar ? Au terme des années de réflexion, individuelle aussi bien que collective, qui sous-tendent ce livre, nous pouvons avancer quelques pistes.""""""In the history of the repressive practices of communism, we have tried, as historians, to identify common points and differences, continuities and discontinuities, paroxysmal moments and periods of backlash, spaces of barbarism and areas of semi-freedom. We have tried to contextualize these diverse experiences as precisely as possible. We will not find on each page this singular, indivisible, eternal bloody essence of communism that Stéphane Courtois intends to denounce. On the other hand, we will discern and perhaps understand a little better, many of the worst tragedies of this century of iron, and also, beyond that, what intolerable conditions a third of humanity lived through for decades. We will also find answers to the essential question: How did hope turn into a nightmare? At the end of the years of reflection, individual as well as collective, which underlie this book, we can put forward some answers. The Black Book of Communism is not a definitive sum, much less a Bible. As one step of an essential reflection, it will have fulfilled its purpose if it stimulates new research, without taboos, but also without prejudices.""" # ideological leanings of key authors: werth summary: Werth seems mostly non-political, probably leans center-right. For example, he recently gave [an anti-Putin interview](https://www.liberation.fr/idees-et-debats/nicolas-werth-le-recit-national-poutinien-est-un-pot-pourri-historique-irrationnel-20220630_KT27LBAEOFH7HPKJ4HRT4Z3PP4/) to [_Liberation_](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lib%C3%A9ration) (center-left) and [another anti-Putin interview](https://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/monde/nicolas-werth-dans-les-manuels-scolaires-russes-aujourd-hui-la-seconde-guerre-mondiale-commence-en-1941-20220811) to [_Le Figaro_](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Figaro) (center-right). # number in gulags -- waiting on email back Skorobogatov 2018: : Killing the Soviet Man: The Death Penalty in the Soviet Union, 1954-1991 """In the decades following Stalin’s death, courtrooms across the Soviet Union became sites of a new and intense form of civic engagement. In 1954, the country’s leadership reinstated the death penalty for non-political crimes, overturning a Stalin-era decree that abolished the death penalty in times of peace. Over the next thirty-seven years, courts across the Soviet Union sentenced a combined 33, 329 people to death. This phenomenon transformed the lives not just of the executed, but their mothers, fathers, wives, husbands, children, co-workers, friends, and members of their communities. Many of these people possessed little to no knowledge of Soviet laws or the legal system that administered them.""" Helsinki Watch 1991: : Glasnost in Jeopardy: Human Rights in the USSR ^ USSR: Prospects for abolition of the death penalty: reprints above numbers: USSR: Prospects for abolition of the death penalty # ideological leanings of key authors: courtois summary: Courtois leans center-right or right. Aeschimann 2006 in Le Monde: in Iraq and Afghanistan, Courtois supported America against the "new round of totalitarianism", Islamism, because one "must not mistake the enemy"; the abuses of Abu Ghraib were merely "inevitable side effects of a war": """Stéphane Courtois : «Il peut être désagréable de penser que les Etats-Unis sont extrêmement puissants, mais c'est la réalité. Nous sommes actuellement dans une guerre mondiale et, vu l'état de l'armée française, la France pourrait avoir besoin d'eux un jour pour se défendre. Dans la vie, il ne faut pas se tromper d'ennemi.»""""""Stephane Courtois: "It may be unpleasant to think that the United States is extremely powerful, but that's the reality. We are currently in a world war and, given the state of the French army, France could need them one day to defend itself. In life, you must not mistake the enemy."""""""Dans la petite tribu de l'Oratoire, on parle beaucoup d'«islamo-fascisme», de «fascisme vert», de «totalitarisme islamique». Autant de dénominations choisies pour inscrire l'islamisme dans la lignée du nazisme et du communisme et montrer qu'une nouvelle fois les démocraties sont confrontées au mal absolu. Pour Stéphane Courtois, «nous sommes repartis pour un nouveau tour de totalitarisme».""""""In the small tribe of the Oratory, there is much talk of "Islamo-fascism", "green fascism", "Islamic totalitarianism". So many denominations chosen to inscribe Islamism in line with Nazism and Communism and show that once again the democracies are confronted with absolute evil. For Stéphane Courtois, "we left for a new round of totalitarianism".""""""Jusqu'où iront les «anti-anti-Américains» ? Les sévices de la prison irakienne d'Abou Ghraib les ont profondément divisés. «Des à-côtés inévitables d'une guerre», juge Stéphane Courtois.""""""How far will the "anti-anti-Americans" go? The abuses in the Iraqi prison of Abu Ghraib have deeply divided them. “Inevitable side effects of a war”, judge Stéphane Courtois.""" ^ quote comes from Courtois in Rigoulot and Taubmann 2004: "Irak, an I: un autre regard sur un monde en guerre" [Iraq, and Me: Another Look at a World at War]: # key quotes from the book: introduction Werth Panne Paczkowski Bartosek Margolin Kramer Murphy Courtois 1999: The Black Book of Communism: probably the most cited book to argue that communist regimes committed mass atrocities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1058238290391748648/image.png The Black Book of Communism """Nonetheless, we have to start somewhere. The following rough approximation, based on unofficial estimates, gives some sense of the scale and gravity of these crimes: U.S.S.R.: 20 million deaths China: 65 million deaths Vietnam: 1 million deaths North Korea: 2 million deaths Cambodia: 2 million deaths Eastern Europe: 1 million deaths Latin America: 150,000 deaths Africa: 1.7 million deaths Afghanistan: 1.5 million deaths The international Communist movement and Communist parties not in power: about 10,000 deaths. The total approaches 100 million people killed.""" Courtois 1999: later in the introduction, Courtois provides the following crimes of the Soviet Union, which sum to ~12-13 million: >20,000 hostages, >200,000 rebellious workers from 1918-22, 5,000,000 people in 1922 famine, 10,000 Cossacks [my number], >20,000 people in concentration camps from 1918-30, 690,000 people in Great Purge, 530,000 "kulaks" [my number], 6,000,000 people in 1932-33 famine; 100,000 people from ethnic minorities from deportation 1939-49 [my number] -- this totals as 20000+200000+5000000+10000+20000+690000+530000+6000000+100000 = 12,570,000 https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1058262911904133190/image.png The Black Book of Communism """A preliminary global accounting of the crimes committed by Communist regimes shows the following: The execution of tens of thousands of hostages and prisoners without trial, and the murder of hundreds of thousands or rebellious workers and peasants from 1918 to 1922; The famine of 1922, which caused the deaths of 5 million people; The extermination and deportation of the Don Cossacks in 1920; The murder of tens of thousands of people in concentration camps from 1918 to 1930; The liquidation of almost 690,000 people in the Great Purge of 1937-38; The deportation of 2 million kulaks in 1930 to 1932; The destruction of 4 million Ukrainians and 2 million others by means of an artificial and systematically perpetuated famine in 1932-33; The deportation of hundreds of thousands of Poles, Ukrainians, Balts, Belarusians, Moldovans, and Bessarabians from 1939 to 1941, in 1944-45, and again in 1949; The deportation of the Volga Germans in 1941; The wholesale deportation of the Crimean Tatars in 1943; The wholesale deportation of the Chechens in 1944; The wholesale deportation of the Ingush in 1944""" # key quotes from the book: soviet section Werth 1999: 6000k from famine of 1932-33; 720k from executions; 400k in labor camps 1930-40; 600k from deportees; 5000k from famine of 1921-22 -- that sums as 6000+720+400+600+5000=1272-- missing other non-enumerated victims, which Werth thinks bring the total to ~15 million: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1058639412419907594/image.png The Black Book of Communism """A provisional balance sheet of statistics on the terror might run as follows: 6 million dead as a result of the famine of 1932-33, a catastrophe that can be blamed largely on the policy of enforced collectivization and the predatory tactics of the central government in seizing the harvests of the kolkhozy; 720,000 executions, 680,000 of which were carried out in 1937-38, usually after some sort of travesty of justice by a special GPU or NKVD court; 300,000 known deaths in the camps from 1934 to 1940. By extrapolating these figures back to 1930-1933 (years for which very few records are available), we can estimate that some 400,000 died during the decade, not counting the incalculable number of those who died between the moment of their arrest and their registration as prisoners in one of the camp; 600,000 registered deaths among the deportees, refugees, and “specially displaced.”; Approximately 2,200,000 deported, forcibly moved, or exiled as “specially displaced people.”; A cumulative figure of 7 million people who entered the camps and Gulag colonies from 1934 to 1941 (information for the years 1930-1933 remains imprecise).""""""Despite the massive international relief effort, at least 5 million of the 29 million Russians affected died of hunger in 1921 and 1922.""" Werth 1999: after Stalin died, the forced labor camps dwindled to about 900k people (about 0.5% of the population), mostly "common criminals" and "petty criminals": The Black Book of Communism """After the release of political prisoners, the post-Stalin gulags saw the number of inmates dwindle, before stabilizing in the late 1950s and early 1960s at around 900,000 prisoners: a core of 300,000 common criminals and repeat offenders serving long sentences and 600,000 petty criminals who had been sentenced in accordance with laws requiring prison terms quite out of proportion to the offense committed. The pioneering role played by the gulags in colonization and in exploitation of the natural and mineral wealth of the far north and east began to fade, and the huge Stalinist prisons were slowly broken up into smaller units. The geography of the gulags changed, too. Most camps were again established in the European part of the U.S.S.R. Confinement in the post-Stalin era took on the more conventional purpose that it has in other societies, although it retained features that distinguished it from the normal legal system. Various groups were sporadically added to the common criminals in accordance with whatever crackdown was in force at the time—on alcoholism, vandalism, “parasitism”—and a few (several hundred each year) were sentenced under Articles 70 and 190 of the new penal code, adopted in 1960.""" # key quotes from the book: china section Margolin 1999: 6 to 10 million as "direct result of communist actions", 20 million in forced labor camps, 20 to 43 million from Great Leap Forward famine, 0.8 million in Tibet [from later in chapter]; that sums as 46.8 to 73.8 million, against "65 million" given in the introduction: The Black Book of Communism """Even if one excludes the civil war, the regime must be held accountable for a huge number of deaths. Although the estimates are quite speculative, it is clear that there were between 6 million and 10 million deaths as a direct result of the Communist actions, including hundreds of thousands of Tibetans. In addition, tens of millions of “counterrevolutionaries” passed long periods of their lives inside the prison system, with perhaps 20 million dying there. To that total should be added the staggering number of deaths during the ill-named Great Leap Forward—estimates range from 20 million to 43 million dead for the years 1959-1961—all victims of a famine caused by the misguided projects of a single man, Mao Zedong, and his criminal obstinacy in refusing to admit his mistake and to allow measures to be taken to rectify the disastrous effects. The answer again is yes if one looks at the scale of the genocide in Tibet; some 10 to 20 percent of the inhabitants of the “rooftop of the world” died as a result of Chinese occupation. The genuine surprise of Deng Xiaoping as he observed that the massacre in Tiananmen Square in June 1989, where perhaps 1,000 died, was totally insignificant in comparison to the scale of events in China in the comparatively recent past, clearly amounts to an admission of guilt.""" Margolin 1999: the 1927-31 purges in Jianxi killed 186,000 people [cites Domenach]: The Black Book of Communism """The originality of Chinese Communist repressive practices is attested by one surprising fact: the Stalinist Great Terror of 1936-1938 was predated by the terror carried out by the Chinese soviets, which according to some estimates claimed 186,000 victims, excluding the war dead, in Jiangxi in 1927—1931.27""""""27. Jean-Luc Domenach, Chine: L archipel oublié (Paris: Fayard, 1992), p. 47.""" Margolin 1999: a ComIntern representative sharply attacked the party discipline (especially the cheng feng method) in Yan'an region ("rectification") [cites Boudarel]: The Black Book of Communism """The most famous purge of the period before 1949 began with an attack on the most brilliant Communist intellectuals of Yan’an in June 1942. As he did again fifteen years later on a nationwide scale, Mao first authorized a two-month period of free criticism. Then suddenly all militants were “invited” to “struggle” at thousands of meetings against Ding Ling, who had denounced the sham of official equality between men and women, and against Wang Shiwei, who had advocated freedom of expression and creativity for artists.""""""A Comintern representative in Yan’an commented on Maoist methods there: Party discipline is based on stupidly rigid forms of criticism and self-criticism. The president of each cell decides who is to be criticized and for what reason. In general it is a Communist who is attacked each time. The accused has only one right: to repent his “errors.” If he considers himself to be innocent or appears insufficiently repentant, the attacks are renewed. It is a real psychological training ... I understood one tragic reality. The cruel method of psychological coercion that Mao calls moral purification has created a stifling atmosphere inside the Party in Yan’an. A not negligible number of Party activists in the region have committed suicide, have fled, or have become psychotic. The cheng feng method is a response to the principle that “everyone should know the intimate thoughts of everyone else.” This is the vile and shameful directive that governs every meeting. All that is personal and intimate is to be displayed shamelessly for public scrutiny. Under the protocol of criticism and self-criticism, the thoughts and aspirations and actions of everyone are on full view.36""""""36. Vladimirov (Comintern representative in Yan’an), in Boudarel, “L’idéocratie importée,” pp. 55-56.""" Margolin 1999: at least 1 million and likely 2 to 5 million people were killed in "bitterness meetings" at which feudal landlords were often beaten to death; at least one such meeting was held in each village [cites Barnett and Vogel; cites Domenach; cites Aubert]: The Black Book of Communism """The key element in agrarian reform was the “bitterness meeting.” Landowners were called before an assembly of the entire village, where for good measure they were often labeled “traitors.” (The Communists systematically associated all landowners with those who really had collaborated with the Japanese invaders and, except in 1946, quickly “forgot” that poor peasants had often collaborated too.) Whether out of fear of these people who so recently had been powerful or out of a sense of injustice, things often began very slowly, and the militants were forced to hurry things along a bit by physically beating and humiliating the accused. At that point the opportunists or those who bore a grudge against the accused would begin the denunciations and accusations, and the temperature would begin to rise. Given the tradition of peasant violence, the outcome was usually a death sentence for the landowner (accompanied by confiscation of all goods and possessions) and immediate execution with the active participation of the peasants.""""""There is no precise tally of the number of victims, but because there was necessarily at least one per village, 1 million seems to be the absolute minimum, and many authors agree on a figure of between 2 million and 5 million dead.51 In addition, between 4 million and 6 million Chinese “kulaks” were sent to the new laogai, and almost double that number were placed under observation for varying lengths of time by the local authorities, which meant constant surveillance, ever harder work, and persecutions in the case of any “mass campaign.”52 If we extrapolated from the number killed in Long Bow — 15 - we would arrive at the top end of the estimates. But the reform process started early there, and after 1948 some of the excesses of the previous period were banned. Long Bow had been hit extremely hard, with a massacre of the whole family of the president of the local Catholic association (and the closure of the church), beatings, confiscation of the goods of poor peasants who had shown solidarity with the rich, and a search for any “feudal origins” in the last three generations (which meant that almost no one was safe from some sort of reclassification).""""""51. A. Doak Barnett and Ezra Vogel, Cadres, Bureaucracy, and Political Power in Communist China (New York: Columbia University Press, 1967), p. 228; Domenach, Chine, p. 71; Claude Aubert, “Economie et société rurales,” in Bergére, Bianco, and Domes, La Chine au XXe siécle, 2: 150. 52. Domenach, Chine, pp. 70-72.""" Margolin 1999: the CPC claims that 2 million bandits were "liquidated" from 1949 to 1952 [cites Domenach]: The Black Book of Communism """According to the Communist Party’s own figures, 2 million bandits were liquidated between 1949 and 1952, and as many again were locked up in prison.59""""""59. Domenach, Chine, pp. 67 and 80.""" Margolin 1999: given that the laogai held roughly 10 million people per year, existed from roughly 1949 to 1980, and had a mortality rate of roughly 5%, the number dead was roughly 20 million [math: 31*0.05*10,000,000=15,500,000]; [cites Wu; cites Domenach; cites Pasqualini]: The Black Book of Communism """"""The laogai was a sort of nonplace, a black hole where the light of Maoism blinded tens of millions of people. As a rough indication, Harry Wu calculates that up to the mid-1980s some 50 million people passed through the system.115 Many died there. According to estimates by Jean-Luc Domenach, there were roughly 10 million detainees each year, which equals 1—2 percent of the overall population. Given that the mortality rate was around 5 percent, some 20 million Chinese must have died during imprisonment, including approximately 4 million in 1959-1962 during the famine caused by the Great Leap Forward (although a return to normal rations took place only in 1964).116 Along with Jean Pasqualini’s extraordinary revelations, two recent studies (those of Wu and Domenach) now yield a better general picture of the least-known of the century’s three great concentration-camp systems.""""""115. Wu, Laogai, p. 38. 116. Domenach, Chine, p. 242; Pasqualini, Prisoner of Mao, p. 318.""" Margolin 1999: the mortality rate in the laogai was 5% per year between 1949 and 1978 [compare with all-China mortality rate]; possible citation is White: The Black Book of Communism """The mortality rate, which until 1952 was certainly in excess of 5 percent per year — the average for 1949-1978 in the laogai — reached 50 percent during a six-month period in Guangxi, and was more than 300 per day in one mine in Shanxi. The most varied and sadistic tortures were quite common, such as hanging by the wrists or the thumbs. One Chinese priest died after being interrogated continuously for 102 hours. The most brutish people were allowed to operate with impunity. One camp commander assassinated or buried alive 1,320 people in one year, in addition to carrying out numerous rapes. Revolts, which were quite numerous at that time (detainees had not yet been ground into submission, and there were many soldiers among them), often degenerated into veritable massacres. Several thousand of the 20,000 prisoners who worked in the oilfields in Yanchang were executed. In November 1949, 1,000 of the 5,000 who mutinied in a forest work camp were buried alive.61""""""61. White, Policies of Chaos, pp. 93-101.""" Margolin 1999: the 1950-1953 Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries resulted in 0.8 million counterrevolutionaries "liquidated" (according to Mao), part of at least 1 million executions in cities; rural executions are not estimated; and 0.7 million people committed suicide [cites Domenach; cites Chingwen]: The Black Book of Communism """The few official figures available are appalling. There were 3,000 arrests in one night in Shanghai (and 38,000 in four months), 220 death sentences and public executions in a single day in Beijing, 30,000 interrogations over nine months in Beijing, 89,000 arrests and 23,000 death sentences in ten months in Guangzhou. More than 450,000 small businesses were investigated, including 100,000 in Shanghai alone; at least one-third of the bosses and numerous managers were found guilty of some sort of fraud, usually tax evasion, and punished with varying degrees of severity. Around 300,000 of them received prison sentences.63""""""It is still difficult to venture with precision beyond the few official figures. But Mao himself spoke of the liquidation of 800,000 counterrevolutionaries. Executions in the cities almost certainly reached 1 million, that is, one-third of the probable number of liquidations in the countryside. But since at least five times as many people lived in the country as lived in the city, we can assume that the repressions were harsher in urban areas. The picture becomes even darker if one includes the 2.5 million people who were imprisoned in reeducation camps, a figure that represents approximately 4.1 percent of the urban population, as opposed to 1.2 percent for the countryside.65 Then there are the numerous suicides of people harried by the authorities. On some days in Guangzhou as many as fifty people committed suicide. Chow Chingwen estimates the total number of suicides at around 700,000.66 Urban purges closely resembled those of the agrarian reforms, differing substantially from the essentially secret purges in the U.S.S.R. carried out by the police. In China the local Party committee had a firm grip on the police. The committee’s primary aim was to ensure that as large a segment of the population as possible took part in the repressions, while being careful to ensure that full control of the proceedings remained with the Party.""""""65. Domenach, Chine, pp. 80-81. 66. Quoted in MacFarquhar and Fairbank, Cambridge History of China, 14: 88.""" Margolin 1999: the 1955 anti-rightist campaign targeted at intellectuals, aimed at "hidden counterrevolutionaries" or "sufan", may have caused either 0.081 million arrests or 0.77 million death [no explicit citations; possibly citing Domenach]: The Black Book of Communism """In 1955 the Party began a new campaign to eliminate “hidden counterrevolutionaries,” known as sufan, targeting the intelligentsia in particular, including any former Party members and sympathizers who had shown a modicum of independence. One example was the brilliant Marxist writer Hu Feng, who was a disciple of the revered Lu Xun, and who in July 1954 had denounced the “five daggers” used by the Central Committee to attack writers and particularly the idea that all creativity should submit to the Party line. [....] In estimating the number of victims of the sufan campaign, one source gives 81,000 arrests (which seems rather modest), while another gives 770,000 deaths. There is at present no way of determining the truth.""""""69. Domenach, Chine, p. 118.""" Margolin 1999: the great famine killed between 20 million [official Chinese figure] and 43 million people [cites Lin; cites Becker]: The Black Book of Communism """Excluding the deficit in births, which was perhaps as many as 33 million (although some births were merely delayed), loss of life linked to the famine in the years 1959-1961 was somewhere between 20 million and 43 million people.102 The lower end of the range is the official figure used by the Chinese government since 1988.""""""102. Lin, “Collectivization”; Becker, Hungry Ghosts, pp. 270-273.""" Margolin 1999: the rate of political prisoners declined with time from 1955 to 1971; compare also laogai vs laojiao vs jiuye: The Black Book of Communism """In 1955, 80 percent of inmates were technically political prisoners, although many common criminals had been reclassified as political offenders and their sentences correspondingly lengthened. By the beginning of the following decade the share of political prisoners had fallen to 50 percent, and by 1971 to one-third—perhaps indications of popular discontent with the regime, and of the rise of criminality in a situation of political instability.117""" Margolin 1999: the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution resulted in 0.4 million, 1 million, or 3 million deaths [cites Fairbank; cites Thurston; cites Domenach]: The Black Book of Communism """By comparison with the terrifying but almost unknown horrors of the agrarian revolution and the Great Leap Forward, the effect of the “Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution” seems almost modest. Estimates vary greatly for the number of dead: most authors cite figures between 400,000 and 1 million, although Domenach calculates between 1 million and 3 million.155""""""155. See, e.g., Fairbank, Great Chinese Revolution, p. 449; Anne F. Thurston, “Urban Violence during the Cultural Revolution: Who Is to Blame?” in Lipman and Harrell, Violence in China, p. 149; Domenach, Chine, p. 211.""" Margolin 1999: China executed at least 10,000 people in 1983 and killed at least 1,000 people during the Tiananmen events in 1989 [cites Domenach]: The Black Book of Communism """In 1983 the rising crime rate resulted in perhaps 1 million arrests, and there were at least 10,000 executions. Many of these were held in public as a lesson for the people, even though such practices are forbidden by the penal code. All of these were part of a mass campaign reminiscent of the events of the 1950s. As then, there was an attempt to group together all the “criminal” elements. Many intellectuals, priests, and foreigners were intimidated during what was termed the “Campaign against Spiritual Pollution,” which was launched amid much publicity. The occupation of Tiananmen Square in the spring of 1989 resulted in significant repression, reflecting the fragility of Deng Xiaoping’s position. Unlike the Maoist leaders of 1976, Deng gave the order to open fire. At least 1,000 people were killed and perhaps 10,000 injured in Beijing. Hundreds of additional executions in the provinces were carried out in secret or disguised to look like normal executions for criminal activity. At least 10,000 people were arrested in Beijing, and another 30,000 throughout the country. Thousands of people were given prison sentences, and the leaders of the movement, who refused to repent, received up to thirteen years in prison. Much pressure was brought to bear on the families of the accused (a practice that most people believed had disappeared for good), and the practice of forcing criminals to hang their heads in public was reinstated. The treatment received by prisoners and the length of their sentences were directly related to the amount of contrition they expressed and the number of colleagues they denounced. Although political prisoners are still a small minority of all detainees, there were 100,000 of them in 1991, including at least 1,000 recent dissidents.264""""""264. Domenach, Chine, pp. 365-378.""" Margolin 1999: in 1956, the PLA killed at least 2,000 Buddhists during a Khampa guerilla uprising [cites Kewley]: The Black Book of Communism """The army responded to an uprising by Khampa guerrillas with atrocities out of all proportion to the rebellion’s scale. In 1956, during the Tibetan New Year celebrations, the great Chode Gaden Phendeling monastery in Batang was destroyed by aerial bombardment; at least 2,000 monks and pilgrims were killed.271""""""271. Kewley, Tibet, pp. 269-270.""" Margolin 1999: in 1987-89, the PLA killed 600 people during martial law after pro-independence rioting [cites Donnet]: The Black Book of Communism """The cycle of revolt and repression began again in Lhasa in October 1987, leading to a declaration of martial law in 1989 after three days of rioting in favor of independence and what were depicted as the beginnings of anti-Chinese pogroms. According to General Zhang Shaosong, there were more than 600 deaths in eighteen months. Despite some atrocities, particularly against nuns, Chinese methods have clearly changed; there have been no more massacres. But by now almost all Tibetans have at least one family member who has suffered under the Chinese.274""""""274. Donnet, Tibet, pp. 54-60, 127.""" Margolin 1999: during the 1950s-60s, hundreds of thousands of Tibetans were interned; the Dalai Lama claimed in 1984 that 0.173 million died in these camps [cites Kewley]: The Black Book of Communism """The worst tragedy in modern Tibet was the internment of hundreds of thousands of people—perhaps as many as one in ten Tibetans—during the 1950s and 1960s. It appears that very few people (perhaps as few as 2 percent) ever returned alive from the 166 known camps, most of which were in Tibet or the neighboring provinces.275 In 1984 the Lama’s intelligence service estimated that 173,000 people had died during detention. Entire monastic communities were sent to the coal mines. Detention conditions on the whole appear to have been dreadful, with hunger, cold, or extreme heat the daily lot of the prisoners. There are as many tales of execution of prisoners refusing to renounce Tibetan independence as there are tales of cannibalism in prison during the Great Leap Forward.276""""""275. Kewley, Tibet, p. 255. 276. Ibid., pp. 122-124, 291, and 314-318.""" Margolin 1999: the Tibetan government-in-exile claimed 1.2 million dead in 1984 [unclear time period] but a more reasonable figure would be 0.8 million between 1953 and 1964 [cites Becker]: The Black Book of Communism """Violent deaths were proportionally much greater in Tibet than in China proper. Even so, it is difficult to believe the figures released by the Tibetan government-in-exile in 1984: 1.2 million victims, or approximately one-quarter of all Tibetans. The figure of 432,000 deaths in combat seems even less credible. But one can legitimately speak of genocidal massacres because of the numbers involved, the lack of heed paid to the wishes and rights of civilians and prisoners, and the regularity with which atrocities were committed. According to official Chinese figures, the population of the autonomous region fell from 2.8 million inhabitants in 1953 to 2.5 million in 1964. If one takes into account the number of exiles and the (admittedly uncertain) birth rate, the number of deaths could be as high as 800,000—a scale of population loss comparable to that in Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge.279""""""279. Becker, Hungry Ghosts, p. 181.""" # summary of china section Margolin 1999: 0.186 million from 1927-31 red terror in Jiangxi; unstated from 1942-43 rectification [likely ~0.01 million]; 1 or 2 or 5 million from 1946-1957 agrarian reform & "bitterness meetings"; 2 million "bandits" from 1949-52; 5% mortality in laogai 1949-1978, yielding 20 million; 1 million executions in cities, 0.7 million suicides, and unknown rural executions from 1950 & 1951 anti-rightist campaigns; 0.77 million deaths from 1955 anti-rightist / anti-intellectual "sufan" campaign; 20 to 43 million from Great Leap Forward Famine; 0.4 or 1 or 3 million from Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution; 0.001 million from 1983 executions; 0.0001 million from Tiananmen events; 0.8 million in Tibet from 1953-64 [partially included in above totals]; 0.00006 million from 1987-89 martial law in Tibet; that sums to 0.186 + 0.001 + c(1,2,5) + 2 + 20 + 1 + 0.7 + 0.77 + c(20,(20+45)/2,45) + c(0.4, 1, 3) + 0.001 + 0.0001 + 0.8 + 0.00006 = 46.9 or 61.3 or 78.5 million dead: # alternate sums of death tolls Wikipedia total (from blog): 0.16 + 0.01 + c(0.2, 5) + c(15, 25) + c(0.5, 2) + 0.053 + c(15, 30) + c(0.4, 3.4) + c(0.144, 0.4) = 31.5 to 66.0 million Maoist China caused the deaths of 0.16 to 0.186 million from 1927-31 repression in the Jiangxi–Fujian Soviet, 0.01 to 0.02 million from the 1942-43 Yan'an Rectification Movement, 0.8 to 2.3 million from 1946-1957 Land Reform Movement and from 1950-1953 Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries, 2 to 27 million from the 1949-1978 laogai, 0.053 million from 1955-57 Sufan Movement anti-intellectual campaign, 15 to 30 million deaths caused by policy from 1959-61 Great Leap Forward Famine, 0.4 to 3.42 million from 1966-76 Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, and 0.144 to 0.4 million in mostly 1953-64 Tibet repression campaigns. c(0.16, 0.186) + c(0.01, 0.02) + c(0.8, 2.3) + c(2, 27) + 0.053 + c(15, 30) + c(0.4, 3.42) + c(0.144, 0.4) = 18.57 to 63.379 # other laogai estimates Steven Rosskam Shalom, Deaths in China due to Communism: Propaganda versus Reality (Tempe: Arizona State Univ. Center for Asian Studies Monograph Series, 1984), p. 102. Shalom argues that Richard Walker’s estimate of the number of deaths due to Chinese Communist actions and policies is too high and needs to be adjusted downward. Shalom’s estimate of 2.5 million corvée laborers does not include the millions of PRC prisoners then doing forced labor either in camps or “under the supervision of the masses.” "The main original contribution of the book (unrelated to merely debunking other accounts) is his estimation of death rates in these camps. There is really no data on this, but Shalom discovers an ingenious way to make an estimate. We know how many "rightists" were arrested in the 1950s and how many were released in the 1970s. Even if one assumes that everyone who didn't die in prison was released then, the death rate is still much lower than that posited by propagandists. Of course, there were many survivors released earlier or later, and this group's death rate was probably higher than the average prison death rate as they were in during the GLF." ^ Bernstein 1985: reviews Shalom 1984: ^ Jacobs 1985: "While Shalomn succeeds in debunking the 'Propaganda' of his subtitle, he fails to construct anew 'Reality' about the number of Chinese who have lost their lives under the Chinese Communists. 0n one hand, Shalom does not use the abundant Chinese evidence available since 1979, though his cut-off date of September 1982 does deprive him of data fronm the 1982 Census. On the other hand, Shalom tendentiously dismisses all evidence unfavourable to China. Thus his final estimate of 3-4 million deaths during 1949-1970 (p. 111) has no better basis than Walker's figure of 34-64 million." Benton and Chun 2009: Chang and Halliday's calculations rely on a "magic formula" with no historical backing: p149: """Twenty-seven million deaths in prisons and labour camps Jung Chang’s second large group of Mao’s peacetime victims is those who died in Chinese government custody. The number is actually produced by magic formula. Mao’s responsibility is not discussed, merely assumed. During Mao’s 27 years of rule, ‘the number who died in prisons and labour camps could well amount to 27 million’ (p. 338). The proof: ‘China’s prison and labour camp population was roughly 10 million in any one year under Mao. Descriptions of camp life by inmates, which point to high mortality rates, indicate a probable annual death rate of at least 10 per cent’ (p. 338 fn.). So 10m × 10% × 27 = 27 million. Jung Chang accuses Mao of killing x = a × b × c number of people, where a = ‘China’s prison and labour camp population’, b = ‘annual death rate’, and c = the years of his rule. She does not explain why a = 10 million. Her justification of b = 10 per cent is based on ‘descriptions of camp life by inmates’. If we applied this magic formula to Deng Xiao-ping’s reign from 1978 to 1989, we get the figure of 12 million deaths, and 14 million for his successor Jiang Ze-min (1990–2003). Jung Chang does not show why Mao was responsible. Apparently she simply blames Mao for every Chinese death of whatever kind.""" # harry wu laogai Wu and Wakeman 1994: the Chinese state has executed 10 to 15 million people: Laogai, the Chinese Gulag """One of the Communist regime's important policies after seizing power in 1949 was Regulations Concerning the Punishment of Counter-Revolutionaries (February 20, 1951, approved by the Eleventh People's Central Congress). There are eighteen regulations in all, and twenty-five crimes defined as punishable by death. Somewhere between 10-15 million people have been put to death under the auspices of these regulations. By the 1980s, with the publishing of Criminal Law (1980), Resolutions Concerning the Severe Punishment of Criminals Who Pose a Threat to Society (1983), Resolutions Concerning the Severe Punishment of Criminals Who Disrupt the Economy (1982), Temporary Articles Regarding the Punishment of Soldiers Negligent in Their Duties, and similar laws, a total of forty-eight charges and thirty-nine articles called for the death penalty. The People's Republic of China has more charges and articles calling for capital punishment than any other country in the world. Although there are no official statistics, of this we can be sure: The total number of people over the past forty years put to death and the annual average number of those put to death in the People's Republic of China are the highest in the world.""" Wu and Wakeman 1994: 50 million people have been sentenced: Laogai, the Chinese Gulag """Despite certain oversights and omissions, the statistics contained in these reports are not entirely without value to a researcher. The author, on the basis of various reports and information gathered over ten years and from his own personal experience, can make a conservative estimate that during the past forty years, at least 50 million people have been sentenced to labor reform camps; moreover, at present 16-20 million are still confined in these camps.""" Wu and Wakeman 1994: 20 to 40 million people have been convicted of political crimes from 1950 to 1980: """It must be emphasized that these figures are based completely upon analyses of official Communist government information and, as such, do not accurately reflect the true state of affairs. The figure of 20 million should be used as a lower limit of the actual numbers arrested over forty years of Communist rule. There are two major categories of arrests for which even the Communist authorities themselves have trouble obtaining accurate statistics. In the past forty years, during the many political movements-for example, during the 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution period; the 1950-1951 Movement to Suppress Counter-revolutionaries period; the 1955 Liquidate Counter-revolutionaries period; and the 1959- 1961 Three Years of Natural Disaster period-frightening numbers of people were arrested and persecuted. Also, there have always been numerous secret arrests. The numbers involved in the two types of situations described above can only be estimated in the millions. The most conservative estimate: Over forty years, between 30-40 million people have been arrested and convicted.""" ^ Wu 1995: Bitter Winds P: A Memoir of My Years in China's Gulag Aikman 1997: """There are, according to Wu, an estimated 1,100 of these institutions in which prisoners are compelled to work under conditions, essentially, of slave labor. He estimates that over five decades about 50 million Chinese have been through the Laogai. Today Wu estimates the Laogai population at 6-8 million. [....] Many of them simply perished in the camps, part of a Laogai death toll that by Wu's calculations may have reached 15 million since 1949. Others survived, but remained in legal limbo for the rest of their lives.""" # forced labor under the kuomintang Williams and Wu 2004: forced labor under the Kuomintang: p33-34: """Conscript labor was quite a diªerent story, however; Chiang Kai-shek often made massive use of it during his reign on the mainland. In the wake of failed attempts to implement a lottery for the military draft, and as fewer willing recruits to Chiang’s army could be found by 1941, military pressgangs fanned out over the countryside to abduct able-bodied men, tie their hands behind their backs, and march them to the nearest induction camp.74 Extreme and often callous security measures taken to stem desertions further endangered the health and safety of the abducted military recruits, who also faced the overall 23% casualty rate of the GMD army during the eight-year war against Japan.75 The GMD conscription of forced civilian laborers also expanded dramatically during wartime, with the party-state regularly drafting as many as half a million laborers to work on a single project, such as the HunanJiangxi railway or a series of runways large enough to accommodate B-29 bombers.76 These laborers’ working conditions were harsh, their shelter and sanitary facilities rudimentary at best, and their mortality rate was high, with several thousand dying from work on the Burma Road project alone.77 Many Chinese villagers understandably came to fear the govern ment’s order for labor service even more than the tax collector or the military press-gangs.78""" # massacres under the japanese army Nanjing: For data supporting the 100,000 figure, see David Askew, “New Research on the Nanjing Incident”, JapanFocus.org. Jean-Louis Margolin, “Japanese Crimes in Nanjing, 1937–38”, China Perspectives 63 (January–February 2006), pp.2–12, finds a minimally smaller number more likely. In 1997, six of the seven Japanese texts available to junior high students estimated the death toll as 100,000–200,000 (Takashi, note 22.) # Zhou Enlai quote on 830,000 killed [accurate quote, did say] Snow 1962: The Other Side of the River: Red China Today: """The People's Republic publishes no comprehensive crime statistics. I asked Judge Wu Teh-fang, chairman of the association of politics and law, why it wasn't done. His reply was, "The figures are so low that they would not be believed abroad." There was Chou En-lai's [Zhou Enlai's] statement several years ago that 830,000 "enemies of the people" had been "destroyed" during the war over land confiscation, mass trials of landlords, and the subsequent roundup of counterrevolutionaries which ended, as a "campaign," in 1954. (Incidentally, the term hsiao-mieh, usually translated as "destroyed," literally means "reduced," "dispersed" or "obliterated," but not necessarily physically liquidated.) This figure, according to the Chinese, was merely used as a basis for "fantastic distortions and exaggeration by our enemies. [....] Notices of executions appear in the provincial newspapers — apparently pour encourager les autres — and Western correspondents keep a tally on them. In 1960 these executions varied from eight to twelve a month, mostly cases of allegedly well-paid assassins and saboteurs caught in Fukien or Kwangtung, across the strait from Taiwan.""" ^ excerpted in Cohen 1968: ^ summary in Rummel 1991: """When a much-respected top party man like Chou En-lai is quoted by Edgar Snow, a sympathetic writer, as admitting to 830,000 “enemies of the people” being destroyed in only a little over three years, he should be heard.3""""""3 Garside (1981, p. 307)."""" ^ summary in Miao 2013: """The Campaign to Suppress Counter-revolutionaries was no doubt one of the bloodiest chapters in China’s penal history (Zhang, 2008), and several years later, Premier Zhou Enlai acknowledged that as many as 830,000 ‘counter-revolutionaries’ had been condemned between 1947 and 1954 (Snow, 1970: 346).""""""Snow E (1970) Red China Today: The Other Side of the River. Harmondsworth: Penguin Books."" # Mao Zedong quote on 700,000 killed [accurate quote, did say] Mao 1957's speech notes in MacFarquhar Cheek Wu 1989: we killed 700,000 counter-revolutionaries from 1950 to 1952, and killed between 70,000 and 80,000 since then: The Secret Speeches of Chairman Mao: From the Hundred Flowers to the Great Leap Forward, specifically On the Correct Handling of Contradictions among the People (Speaking Notes) """We didn't do this sort of thing, having seen his example. Have there been any people unjustly killed? Yes, at the time of the great [cam- paign] to eliminate counterrevolutionaries [sufan], 1950, 1951, 1952, in those three years of the great sufan, there were. [When] killing local bullies and evil gentry [tuhao lieshen] in [the campaign against] the five types of counterrevolutionaries, there were. But basically there were no errors; that group of people should have been killed. In all, how many were killed? Seven hundred thousand were killed, [and] after that time probably over 70,000 more have been killed. But less than 80,000. Since last year, basically we have not killed people; only a small number of individuals have been killed. So people say, "You people are so capricious; if you had known it would come to this, why did you start as you did? And now again you want no more killing." In the past four or five years we've only killed several tens of thousands of people. From last year we more or less haven't killed, only killing a small number, a few individuals. In 1950, 1951, 1952, we killed 700,000. The Hong Kong news papers expanded that estimate (at that time we didn't need to reckon accounts with them); they said we killed 20,000,000. If we subtract 700,000 from 20,000,000, that really leaves a remainder of 19,300,000. They were 19,300,000 over. "The tyrant Zhou cannot really have been as wicked as all this."12 How could we possibly kill 20,000,000 people? It is true that 700,000 people were killed; [but] if they had not been killed, the people would not have been able to raise their heads. The people demanded [yaoqiu] the killing in order to liberate the productive forces. They [those killed] were fetters on the productive forces. "Evil despots" - the Eastern despot, the Southern despot, the Western despot, the Northern despot, the Central despot,13 the backbone elements of the five types of counterrevolutionaries.""" ^ summary in Scobell 1990: The Death Penalty in Post-Mao China """The number executed over the past ten years is the highest since the wave of executions during the early years of the People's Republic when hundreds of thousands of "enemies of the people" are estimated to have been summarily executed.80""""""80. Zhou Enlai told Edgar Snow that 830,000 people were "destroyed" in the year up until 1954. See Snow, The Other Side of the River, excerpted in Cohen, The Criminal Process, pp. 543-44. According to an unofficial version of Mao's 1957 speech "Problems relating to the correct handling of contradictions among the people," some 700,000 "class enemies were executed." See Roderick MacFarquhar, Timothy Cheek and Eugene Wu (eds.), The Secret Speeches of Chairman Mao: From the Hundred Flowers to the Great Leap Forward (Cambridge, MA: Council on East Asian Studies, Harvard University Press, 1989), p. 142.""" ^ summary in Spence 1999: [simply repeats quote without citation]: Mao Zedong: A Life # Mao Zedong quote on 2 to 3 million killed [misquote, did not say] Chirot 1994: example of misquotation: Modern Tyrants: The Power and Prevalence of Evil in Our Age """It was not as if the early stages of the land reform were peaceful. Far from it! The Party deliberated exacerbated class warfare in the villages in order to mobilize poor and middle peasant support. Public beheadings and beating landlords to death was common, and because the dividing line between rich peasant and landlord was vague, this involved millions of deaths. Zhou Enlai later estimated that 830,000 were killed between 1949 and 1956. Mao, who ordered leniency toward rich peasants because their skills were needed, estimated a much larger number of deaths during this period, from two to three million.34""""""34. Salisbury, New Emperors, 130-131; Spence, in Search for Modern China, 517, estimates a million deaths during this period.""" Garside 1982: example of correct quotation: Coming Alive: China After Mao """The Amnesty International report quotes documents collected and circulated by Red Guards during the Cultural Revolution which reveal that Chairman Mao said in April 1956, at an enlarged meeting of the Party Politburo, that “two or three million counter-revolutionaries had been executionsuted, imprisoned, or placed under control in the past.” From the texts of court notices published in China it is clear that some people convicted as counter-revolutionaries had done no more than express political dissent and had made no attempt to organize a “counter-revolution.” In Red China Today, Edgar Snow quotes Zhou Enlai as saying that eight hundred thirty thousand “enemies of the people” had been “destroyed” up to 1954.""" Amnesty International 1978: Political Imprisonment in the Peoples Republic of China """According to documents collected and circulated by Red Guards during the Cultural .Revolution, Chairman Mao said in April 1956 at an enlarged meeting of the Party Politburo that "two to three million counter-revolutionaries had been executed, imprisoned or placed under control in the past".55""""""55 Mao Zidong Sixiang Wansui (Long Live Mao Tsetung Thought) 1969, pp. 38- 39. This collection presents texts of Mao's writings and talks from 1949 to 1968, as gathered by Red Guards. Many of these texts, including the one mentioned here, have not been officially published. They are generally believed to be authentic, but their accuracy is difficult to assess. Some of them are now available in Volume V of Mao Tsetung's Selected It'orks which presents an edited version of the original texts.""" Mao 1969: Long Live Mao Zedong Thought / Mao Zedong si xiang wan sui / Mao Zedong sixiang wanui / 毛澤東思想萬歲: ^ might be same publication: Miscellany of Mao Tse-tung thought: 1949-1968: Mao 1956: Miscellany of Mao Tse-tung thought: 1949-1968: """We have talked too little about the suppression of counterrevolutionaries, the unification of war efforts, the minority nationalities, and international problems. Will the various areas please stress this to their subordinates. We should take affirmative action in regard to the suppression of counterrevolutionaries. In the past, we have killed, locked up, and controlled 2-3 million such persons, and this was extremely necessary. Without this stroke, it would not do. The democratic parties have divergent views from us. Now the counterrevolutionaries are fewer. We should take affirmative action to see if there are still any counterrevolutionaries, and this year decide upon having some of them killed. They must be liquidated in the strategic organizations and schools. Those not yet liquidated must be liquidated. We cannot be lax and lenient; we must carry out this bitter task. We should telephone once every half month to urge them into action.""" # official government report: Zirong 1954 Kuisong 2008: in 1954, Xu Zirong published a report claiming that 712,000 had been executed, or 0.124% of the population: Reconsidering the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries """Exactly how many people were executed, imprisoned and ‘‘controlled" during the zhenfan campaign? Mao later offered a version that 700,000 were executed, 1,200,000 were imprisoned and another 1,200,000 were subject to control.60 The basis of Mao’s numbers was a report submitted by Xu Zirong, Deputy Public Security Minister, in January 1954. According to this, 2,620,000 people had been arrested in the country over the course of the zhenfan campaign. Among these, "712,000 counter-revolutionaries were executed, 1,290,000 were imprisoned, and 1,200,000 were subject to control at various times. Among those arrested, 380,000 guilty of minor crimes have been released after receiving education."61 At the time China had a population of 500 million, and the 712,000 executed accounted for 0.124 per cent of the population, the 1,290,000 imprisoned for 0.258 per cent and the 1,200,000 controlled for 0.24 per cent. This figure was obviously much higher than the 0.1 per cent scale that Mao initially envisaged. While big cities like Shanghai and Nanjing executed between 0.05 per cent and 0.1 per cent of their populations, most of the executions took place in the countryside.62 Many rural areas had execution rates much higher than 0.15 per cent, and some provinces and districts surpassed 0.2 per cent. After Mao began to slow down the campaign and even mildly criticize some regions for excessive killing in April 1951, what followed was the concealment of the real rate of executions by local officials. It is very likely that the actual number of executions was much larger than the reported 712,000.63""""""60 Mao Zedong, Guanyu zhengque chuli renmin neibu maodun wenti (On the Question of Dealing with the Contradictions Internal to the People Correctly), 27 February 1957. 61 "Xu Zirong’s report on several important statistics since zhenfan, 14 January 1954," original in the Central Archives. 62 During the first and second phases of the campaign, the execution rate in Nanjing was 0.088%. In the third phase some 300 were executed and the final total was just slightly higher than the 0.1% scale. See "East China Public Security Department’s plan." 63 Some evidence can be found in the monthly reports on executions of counterrevolutionaries filed by the court of Chuannan district, Sichuan. Two of the court’s reports have exact the same dates but the numbers reported are different. See document no. Jiannan/010/61–65, 93–96, Archives of Sichuan Province.""" # shitty AFL-CIO report: CIA-funded Stavis 1978: extrapolation based on deaths in Kwantung, assuming 2x as many official deaths as unofficial yields 850,000 dead: The politics of agricultural mechanization in China """A crude extrapolation of the Kwangtung figure is illuminating. Presume that as many people were killed “unofficially” as officially. If 60,000 were killed altogether in Kwangtung, this represents 0.17 per cent of the population of 35 million.15 If this is extrapolated on the basis of a population for all of China of 500 million, then it implies that roughly 850,000 people may have been killed. Of these, landlords killed in the process of land reform represented a small portion.""" Stavis 1978: the report by the AFL Free Trade Union Committee with 14-15 million dead was likely funded by the CIA: The politics of agricultural mechanization in China """Despite the justifiable emotional heat generated over the question of violence in land reform, remarkably little careful research has been done on the question. An estimate of 14-15 million deaths for 1949-52 has been adopted by some of the standard texts on this period.8 This estimate was released by the American Federation of Labor’s Free Trade Union Committee in October 1952 and published in December 1952. 9 The original report was purported to have been compiled by an underground group in China calling itself “Democratic Revolutionary League,” and to have been sent out of China by its secretary Way Min (Wei Min meaning “for the people"?) on July 24, 1952. For evidence and sources, the document merely reported “evidence and data obtained by the League; abstracts compiled by the league.” No sources were cited which could be checked. It is highly probable that this report, which has provided the foundation for much scholarship, is bogus.10 The committee that released the report the Free Trade Union Committee of the AFL — was funded substantially (if not entirely) by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency’s International Organization Division.11 One common activity of the CIA is the creation and spreading of propaganda and “disinformation” through a wide range of publications.12 All the connections cannot be demonstrated conclusively in this case, because the authorship and methodology of the original report remain obscured. In the case of Vietnam, it has been demonstrated convincingly that the CIA helped to finance writers, generate numbers, and spread stories which vastly overestimated the violence of land reform.13""""""8. Richard Walker, The Human Cost of Communism in China (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1971), p. 13. This was a report prepared for the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee, chaired by Senator James Eastland, at the request of Senator Thomas Dodd. The same number is referred to as unspecified “U.S. government estimates,” by Franz Michael and George Taylor, The Far East in the Modern World, rev. ed. (New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston, 1964), p. 459. 9. “Mass Murder in Communist China,” American Federation of Labor, Free Trade Union Committee News 7:12 (Dec. 1952), 1, 4-5. This report was released October 22, 1952, and reported in the New York Times Oct. 23, 1952, p. 3. The report offered this breakdown (taken from Table 2): 5 million killed in rural areas (landlords, village despots); 3 million KMT reactionaries; 2.6 million bandit agents; 0.9 million trecherous merchants; 2. 1 million died in slave labor camps or in “suicidal missions”; .021 million POW's from Korean War. 10. Attempts to examine the original report from China have been unproductive. According to AFL-CIO officials, the original document (along with all papers of Mathew Woll, chairman of the Free Trade Union Committee) was destroyed. In addition to scholarly books, the New York Times accepted the validity of this report completely. After the report was released. Times editors intoned: “It is an axiom that life is cheap in crowded and unspecifieddeveloped countries. It is also an axiom that communist philosophy puts no value on life itself” (New York Times editorial, Oct. 24, 1952, p. 22, col. 3). 11 . Winslow Peck, “Clandestine Enforcement of U.S. Foreign Labor Policy,” Counterspy 2:1 (Fall 1974), 36. The close association between the CIA and the AFL in the late 1940’s is described by Miles Copeland, Beyond Cloak and Dagger: Inside the CIA (New York: Pinnacle, 1974), p. 240. 12. Victor Marchetti and John Marks, The CIA and the Cult of Intelligence (New York: Dell, 1974), pp. 165-185. 13. D. Gareth Porter, “The Myth of the Bloodbath: North Vietnam’s Land Reform Reconsidered,” Cornell University International Relations of East Asia Project, Interim Report 2, 1972; summarized in Indochina Chronicle, no. 19 (Sept. 15, 1972), 1-5. Funded by the CIA (using the Congress of Cultural Freedom as a conduit) and USIA, Hoang Van Chi wrote that up to 700,000 people (5 per cent of the population) were killed. He offered no sources, and mistranslated Vietnamese documents to justify these figures. These estimates were then picked up by others writing on Vietnam (including President Richard Nixon). Porter presents careful documentation for an estimate that 800 to 2,500 people may have been killed in land reform — only 0. 1 to 0.4 per cent of the widely adopted numbers."""""" Stavis 1978: The politics of agricultural mechanization in China """In these circumstances it is impossible to know how many people were officially executed in land reform, how many were lynched by enraged peasants, how many committed suicide. Rough orders of magnitude can, however, be suggested. It would appear that somewhere between 400,000 and 800,000 people were killed officially after 1949. What portion of these were landlords and members of the rural power structure (including rural police. Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) troops and commanders, rent collectors, etc.) cannot be said for certain, but it is possible that the rural revolution could have cost 200,000 to 800,000 lives. The Chinese Communist leadership had estimated that landlords and their families constituted 4—5 per cent of the rural population — about 20 million people.23 This would imply that 1 to 4 per cent of landlords’ families met death. If a half-million people were killed in land reform, this would be 0.1 per cent of the rural population or 2.5 per cent of the landlord class and would represent roughly one death in six landlord families.24""" # book responses Behr et al 2020: summary of Dreyfus et al 2002: """In 2000, a group of social scientists published a massive volume entitled The Century of Communisms (Dreyfus et al., 2000) conceived as a refutation of both Furet’s and Courtois’s works. They adopted a sociological perspective to demonstrate that communism was a multi-faceted phenomenon that could not be reduced to an allegedly criminal nature.""" Dreyfus et al 2002: argues that communist movements were multi-faceted and cannot be reduced to a "genetic" criminality of all communisms: Le siècle des communismes [The Century of Communisms] Ziegler et al 1998: creates an incomplete death toll for capitalism: Le Livre noir du capitalisme [The Black Book of Capitalism] Warren W. Smith, a broadcaster of Radio Free Asia (which was established by the US government), extrapolated a death figure of 400,000 from his calculation of census reports of Tibet which show 200,000 "missing" people.[61][62] The Central Tibetan Administration claimed that the number that have died of starvation, violence, or other indirect causes since 1950 is approximately 1.2 million.[63] According to Patrick French, the former director of the London-based Free Tibet Campaign and a supporter of the Tibetan cause who was able to view the data and calculations, the estimate is not reliable because the Tibetans were not able to process the data well enough to produce a credible total. French says this total was based on refugee interviews, but prevented outsider access to the data. French, who did gain access, found no names, but "the insertion of seemingly random figures into each section, and constant, unchecked duplication."[64] Furthermore, he found that of the 1.1 million dead listed, only 23,364 were female (implying that 1.07 million of the total Tibetan male population of 1.25 million had died).[64] Tibetologist Tom Grunfeld also finds that the figure is "without documentary evidence."[65] There were, however, many casualties, perhaps as many as 400,000.[66] Smith, calculating from census reports of Tibet, shows 144,000 to 160,000 "missing" from Tibet".[67] Courtois et al. forward a figure of 800,000 deaths and allege that as many as 10% of the Tibetan populace were interned, with few survivors.[68] Chinese demographers have estimated that 90,000 of the 300,000 "missing" Tibetans fled the region.[69] The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) denies this. Its official toll of deaths recorded for the whole of China for the years of the Great Leap Forward is 14 million, but scholars have estimated the number of the famine victims to be between 20 and 43 million.[70] # critical historian reviews Kenez 1999: critical review of the BBOC, highlights several factual errors: Review of the "Little Black Book": """Are the horrors revealed in The Black Book of Communism truly shocking, or just artful propaganda? Peter Kenez deflates an overblown polemic.""""""How good is this book as a work of history? This is a work by 11 different historians and, obviously, some of the chapters are better than others. My expertise is limited to the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, and therefore it is difficult for me to judge the chapters on Asian Communism. Perhaps because these stories were less familiar to me, I found the descriptions particularly shocking. Mr. Paczkowski, who wrote the chapter on Poland, immediately lost my confidence in his objectivity when he wrote on the second page of his essay: "In the summer of 1920, Lenin launched a Red Army offensive against Warsaw." It is not simply a matter of opinion, but a fact that it was Pilsudski, the Polish hero of independence, who attacked and the Red Army perhaps inadvisably, pursued the Poles. Nor can it be shown, contrary to Paczkowski, that the Stalinists had a unique hatred against Poles. Many other nationalities (Ukrainians, Jews, Chechens, Tatars, etc.) have claimed the same distinction. Stephane Courtois and Jean-Louis Panne used several pages in their article on the Comintern proving that that organization aimed at fomenting revolutions around the world. This was an easy task in view of the fact that fomenting revolution -- always laughably, inefficiently, and without success -- was the proudly proclaimed goal of that organization. These errors and imprecisions do matter, for they undermine the confidence of the reader in other figures that are not so easy to check. (One wonders about the failure of the editors to note some of these obvious errors.)""" ^ Peter Kenez: background: Russian historian: Kuromiya 2000: """Courtois’ attempt to present communism as a greater evil than nazism by playing a numbers game is a pity because it threatens to dilute the horror of actual killings.""""""What is implied in The Black Book is that distinctions between direct and indirect killings are fine points of no consequence[.]""" ^ Hiroaki Kuromiya: background: Soviet historian: Dallin 2000: """The chapters vary greatly in quality and reliability. Though often debatable, much the best ones are those by Nicolas Werth on the Soviet Union. Some of the others suffer from rather shrill rhetoric, and the whole enterprise of course leaves vast stretches of uncertainty; thus the attempt to establish the number of victims of communism (a futile effort that would depend greatly on definitions even if the statistics were more reliable) comes up with strikingly vast variations and vague totals (e.g., 65 million deaths for China, 20 million deaths for the USSR, and so forth).""""""The authors make no attempt to differentiate between intended crimes-a la Auschwitz or the Moscow show trials-and policy choices that had (intended or unintended) consequences that were terrible (be it the Nazi-Soviet Pact or the great Chinese famine). Nor are sufficient distinctions made among the various communist regimes (all of which, we are told, are imbued with "a sort of genetic code of Communism," 754), or among different time periods: as it stands there is no adequate explanation why terror was practiced under Vladimir Lenin and losif Stalin but repressions lifted significantly in the post-Stalin years and virtually vanished under Mikhail Gorbachev; how Leninism explains Pol Pot; why there were no purge trials in Poland; and so forth.""" Weiner 2000: """Although it adds little data that is new, the list is long, informative, and, for most part, indisputable. Even when the numbers of victims are questionable or obviously inflated, the brutality of communism in power is well established. Moreover, the fact that the atrocities consistently commenced with the seizure of power lends support to the argu- ment for intentionality, particularly in the section on the Soviet Union by Werth, the most subtle and best-documented in the book. That said, this thick volume is seriously flawed, incoherent, and often prone to mere provocation.""" ^ Amir Wiener: background: historian of totalitarianism: #####c ##### # north korean famine #####o # summary after the collapse of the Soviet Union (and several floods and droughts and collapse of heavy industry and the failure of the food distribution system), hundreds of thousands of North Korean residents died: # death toll estimates: medium-quality studies Goodkind West 2001: the famine caused 605k to 1040k excess deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071740970489622568/image.png The North Korean Famine and Its Demographic Impact """To produce the models in Table 3, we began with the assumption that peak increases in mortality during the North Korean famine matched those of China during the Great Leap Forward. That is, we grafted the absolute increase in Chinese death rates by age and sex from 1958 to 1961 onto corresponding base-year (1994) rates in North Korea. We assumed, based on a variety of evidence, that these peak rates in North Korea occurred in both 1997 and 199810 (death rates in 2000 were presumed to match those of 1994, the year prior to the famine; the projection program interpolates values for unspecified years: 1995-96 and 1999). The corresponding infant mortality rate peaked at 136 in 1997-98. The top panel of Table 3 shows the demographic result of this model based on the Great Leap Forward. It implies 1.04 million excess deaths between 1995 and 2000, and we accept that figure as one end of the range we want to construct. [....] The results, presented in the bottom panel of Table 3, suggest about 605,000 excess deaths.""" Noland Haggard 2007: the famine caused 600k to 1000k excess deaths: """There is still much we don’t know about the demographic effects of the North Korean famine. Moreover, the excess deaths are just one summary measure of the famine’s costs. Such statistics do not capture the long-run developmental effects of early childhood stunting, not to mention the wide-ranging social consequences of the food shortage, from the breakup of families to human trafficking, prostitution, and crime born of desperation. Nonetheless, in our view, the most sophisticated attempts to measure excess deaths put them in a range of roughly 600,000 to 1 million, or approximately 3 to 5 percent of the precrisis population.""" Goodkind West Johnson 2011: the famine caused 489k to 589k excess deaths between 1993 and 2000: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071741936458805361/image.png """Table 3 compares the differing estimates of deaths between the base scenario and the two without famine scenarios. During the period 1993 to 2000, no famine assumptions imply between 500 and 600 thousand excess deaths. 21 In addition, these models imply between 100 and 400 thousand additional excess deaths from 2001 to 2008. Thus, these models imply a total of 600 thousand to 1 million excess deaths across the entire intercensal interval 1993 to 2008.""" ^ Noland 2011: sharply criticizes the Goodkind West Johnson 2011 paper: Spoorenberg Schwekendiek 2012: the famine caused 237k to 417k excess deaths: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071618623648571494/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071737595874246716/image.png Demographic Changes in North Korea: 1993–2008 """Only three studies have provided a conventional demographic perspective (Robinson et al. 1999; Goodkind and West 2001; Goodkind, West, and Johnson 2011).""""""Using counterfactual population projections, we reappraised the demographic impact of the famine. According to the first three counterfactual mortality scenarios, the total number of excess deaths caused by the famine in the 1990s came to between 240,000 and 420,000, a range well below the widely accepted previous estimates of 600,000 to one million total excess deaths or the recent revision that set the number between 500,000 and 600,000 (Goodkind, West, and Johnson 2011: 12). While the new estimates proposed here indicate a substantially lower number of deaths, they still point to a high number of deaths that could have been avoided.""" # death toll estimates: low-quality studies Becker 2005: defector testimony yields 3 million deaths from the famine: """Any defection from North Korea was big news in 1997, but for Hwang Jangyop to walk out was akin, as the Washington Post put it, to Goebbels walking out on Hitler.1 Hwang had started working in Kim Il Sung’s private office in 1958, and he moved within the upper ranks of the world’s most secretive regime for another 39 years. He was the chief ideologue and creator of the country’s Juche philosophy, which had turned Kim Il Sung into a living god.""""""Hwang says that in late 1996, Kim asked six senior officials to go to the provinces and collect a separate set of death toll estimates; they returned with estimates that three million people had died. And in response, Kim allegedly said: “Be tough. No uprising will be allowed. I will control military power. Have a strong heart. If the people revolt they will hang us, and if they don’t the South Koreans will.”""" Natsios 1998: defector testimony and extrapolating one province's death rates to the country as a whole both yield 2.5 million deaths from famine: """Hwang Jong Yop, former party ideologue and philosopher of juche, published North Korea: Truth or Lies in June 1998 following his defection to South Korea in February 1997. In it he writes the following: In November 1996, I was very concerned about the economy and asked a top official in charge of agricultural statistics and food how many people had starved to death. He replied, "In 1995, about 500,000 people starved to death including 50,000 party cadres. In 1996, about one million people are estimated to have starved to death." He continued, "In 1997, about 2 million people would starve to death if no international aid were provided" (Chapter 20, p.15). In interviews with the South Korean media, Hwang has subsequently estimated that the death toll has reached 2.5 million people since 1995. (He suggests that one million died in 1997.)""""""The Hopkins death rates, therefore, are a consistent, though conservative, estimate of the severity of the famine across the country. If anything, extrapolating the Hopkins death rates to the country as a whole understates rather than exaggerates the famine's severity. By deducting the 2 million people living in Pyongyang (the senior party cadre who have suffered least in the famine are heavily concentrated in the capital) and the 1.2 million soldiers, and then applying the 12 percent Hopkins rate of mortality to the 20 million people remaining, the total number of famine deaths would approach 2.5 mil- lion, the same number of deaths claimed by Hwang Jong Yop. Thus, we have several independent studies that give credence to Hwang Jong Yop's estimate.""" Eberstadt 2007: based on the number of delegates to the Supreme People's Assembly, North Korea was 3 million people short of where population projections put it (a combination of excess death and lower birth rates, not just a death toll): """About a year and a half after the official North Korean population census, Pyongyang announced that the country had been beset by severe food shortages, and launched an official appeal for emergency humanitarian food aid.!8 That appeal, in various guises, continues to this writing, suggesting that a desperate affliction still stalks the country. As mentioned earlier in Chapter 2, as of this writing, it is impossible to provide an accurate assessment of the demographic impact of North Korea’s nutritional problems, despite the millions of tons of emergency food assistance given to North Korea since 1995 by international relief agencies, Pyongyang has refuses to provide those same agencies with the detailed official demographic data that could help to specify the precise dimensions of this humanitarian crisis.""""""Thus, due to the ongoing food crisis, North Korea’s population profile at the end of the 1990s may well have looked rather different from the outlines projected for it earlier in the decade. For example, demographic projections before the food crisis anticipated an increase in DPRK population of over 3 million persons (of about 15 percent) between midyear 1990 and midyear 1998.2! The 10th DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA), however, impaneled exactly the same number of delegates (687) for its September 1998 deliberations as had been inducted for the 9th SPA in April 1990. Since the DPRK constitution stipulates that one SPA delegate is required for every 30,000 population, these SPA delegate totals might seem to imply that the country’s population was no larger in 1998 than it had been eight years earlier.""" Robinson et al 1999: using interviews with 440 North Korean refugees, one particularly-badly-hit province may have had 210k excess deaths: """In 1993, the population of North Hamkyong was 2 0 60 725, including 2 0 13 934 people living in 491 9 6 2 households and 46 791 people living in 991 collective u n i t s . 1 4 For example, assuming that the North Hamkyong population grew at the officially recorded rate of 1·4% in 1994 and then experienced a birth rate of 16 per 1000 and a death rate of 40 per 1000 from 1995 to 1997, deaths during the 3-year period would have numbered about 245 000 and would have exceeded births by 2·5 to one. With 1993 census birth rates of 21·8 per 1000 and death rates of 5·5 per 1000, and assuming no substantial migration in or out of the province, births during the same period would have totalled 140 000 and deaths only 35 0 0 0""" Kirk 1998: US Congressional staffers estimated 900k to 2400k dead between 1995 and 1998, but provide little reason for this estimation (and just linearly multiply a one-year death rate): """Reliable sources estimate that of North Korea's 23 million people, between 300,000-800,000 people have died each year (peaking in 1997) as a result of the food shortages. [....] Estimating the death toll of the North Korean food shortage is guess work at best. Without a scientific nutritional survey and census, anecdotal information and exile interviews are all we can use to assess the toll. [....] Therefore, we gave a range of estimates, from 300,000 to 800,000 dying per year, peaking in 1997. That would put the total dead from the North Korean food shortage at between 900,000 to 2.4 million between 1995 and 1998.""" #####c #####c ##### # great leap forward death toll estimates #####o # summary of some of the complexities Riskin 1998: different data sources and different assumptions yield very different estimates: Seven questions about the Chinese famine of 1959–1961 """Different estimates of total mortality arise from different methods of estimation. The "official" figure 6 is derived by subtracting the crude death rate of the pre-famine year, 1957, from those of the famine years and multiplying the difference by the estimated size of the Chinese population. Peng's estimate of 23 million is based upon provincial vital statistics for 14 provinces, the assumption that their experiences were matched by the rest of China's (then) 29 provinces, and assumptions about underreporting. Banister's estimate of 30 million is based upon a computer reconstruction of population trends that assumes substantial underestimation of mortality both before and during the famine. [....] Ashton et al.'s figure of 29.5 million excess deaths results from a complex series of estimates based on mortality levels of children aged 10 and under derived from cohort survivorship rates, and on the assumption of greatly differing underreporting rates for children and adults. A peculiarity of the Ashton et al. procedure is that their estimate of baseline, normal child mortality for the famine period is based on the assumption of actual famine-level births and thus is too low. That is, if the famine had not occurred, fertility would have been much higher; applying estimated normal infant mortality rates to the larger number of births would generate a larger "normal" number of infant deaths. Excess infant deaths due to the famine (equal to actual infant deaths in the famine years minus the estimated "normal" number) would thus be fewer than Ashton et al. estimate. Their reason for adopting this procedure was to avoid having to count deaths of infants who were not in fact born. Yet the result is to exaggerate the number of excess deaths. This dilemma presents a good example of the complexity and ambiguities involved in estimating famine mortality. No matter what method they use, all students of the Chinese famine come up with an appallingly large loss of life. Is it quibbling or playing a numbers game to harp on whether the true figure is 15 million or 30 million? I would suggest that it remains important to construct as historically accurate an account as possible of the Great Leap Famine, and that a careful taxonomy of estimates, clearly setting out methodologies and assumptions of each, would help arrive at a consensus---or at least help to clarify differences.""" O'Grada 2008: """As Riskin has pointed out, the baseline child mortality assumed by Ashton et al. inflates the number of excess child deaths; it also yields an age-pattern of excess mortality atypical of famines generally.19 Banister, a demographer, candidly points to the ‘arbitrary estimation process’ involved in her adjustments for underregistration, while Luo’s analysis (see figure 1) implies more excess deaths in 1961–2 than in 1960, which does not square so readily with other evidence, and a trough in births in 1960 rather than 1961. Still, a toll of 25 million is as plausible as one of 15 million. Either way, the Great Leap Famine still remains ahead of its nearest competitors.20 The immediate context of the famine was a severe harvest shortfall in 1959 followed by an even worse one in 1960, procurements of food from the countryside that made scant allowance for this, and massive economic dislocation due to the Great Leap Forward (see table 1). Policy-related factors listed in the specialist literature range from consumption and production inefficiencies associated with the soup kitchen regime and the people’s communes, and the fanaticism of local Party leaders, to the draconian grain procurements of the summer and autumn of 1959, and the economic costs of fast-track central planning.21 Moreover, as research on the political economy of famine suggests, much can be done to mitigate crises, even in the presence of severe supply shortfalls.22 Clearly the Chinese leadership ignored evidence of unfolding disaster at the Lushan Party conference of July 1959, and blamed the messenger in the person of Defence Minister Peng Dehuai. They continued to export grain, though at a diminishing rate, and failed to import significant quantities until 1961. They denied the very existence of famine, ruling out the option of foreign aid.23 Although the hostility of both the Soviet Union and the United States at this juncture were constraints, theCommunists still made the wrong political choices and were responsible for many millions of deaths. Nothing in the following paragraphs should be taken as denying the central role of the regime of the day, both for what it did and left undone.""" # death toll estimates: high quality studies Peng 1987: demographic data suggests a death toll of 23 million (examines fertility, mortality, underreporting, grain output yielded, procurement, grain availability): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071607481773588520/image.png Demographic Consequences of the Great Leap Forward in China's Provinces """Therefore, assuming that the experience for the remaining provinces was on average similar to those we measured and that the underreporting of deaths was some 10 percent higher during the crisis than in the preceding period, the total number of excess deaths for China as a whole may have amounted to 23 million. This is a very rough estimate that should be interpreted with great caution. The reliability of some provincial data is open to question. In addition, estimation of national figures from provincial data may introduce distortion. More work is necessary to reconstruct China's population history for this period.""" Houser Sands Xiao 2007: combining demographic data with weather data suggests that about 69% of 15.4 million excess deaths resulted from national policy, or 10.6 million: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071608695588401183/image.png Three parts natural, seven parts man-made: Bayesian analysis of China’s Great Leap Forward demographic disaster // NOTE: text does not align with table: """Based on our definitions and population estimates we find that, in aggregate, from 1959 to 1961 China suffered about 14.8 million excess deaths. Of those, about 71% seem attributable to effects stemming from national policies. We find that only one region, Shaanxi, did not experience excess deaths during the period 1959–1961. Within the remaining regions, national policy often predicts all of their excess deaths over the famine period.""" 14,800,000*71%=10508000=10.5 million // table: 15,353,567 excess, 69% percent of excess deaths due to national effect, 15,353,567*69%=10593961.2=10.6 million ^ the same errors occur in Houser Sands Xiao 2005 preprint: # death toll estimates: medium quality studies Coale 1981: only examines incomplete demographic data (fertility and deaths) and only briefly examines the famine, estimates 16.5 million deaths: Population Trends, Population Policy, and Population Studies in China """Another remarkable feature of these data is the deficit in the birth rate and the excess death rate from 1958 to 1961-the period of the Great Leap Forward and the food crisis of the early 1960s. (No single calendar-year death rates have appeared for this period.) The average death rate for 1958-61 (17 per thousand) is 1.6 times the average (10.6 per thousand) of the rates given for the adjacent years (1957 and 1962) by Liu, implying about 16.5 million deaths in excess of the trend during these four years. The sharp dip in the birth rate and the excess mortality in the late 1950s and early 1960s are reminiscent of the demographic impact of forced collectivization in Russia from 1929 to 1936.5""" ^ personal background: Banister 1987: briefly examines demographic data and underreporting, estimates 30 million deaths: China's Changing Population """Assuming that without the Great Leap Forward’s policies and experiences China would have maintained its claimed 1957 death rate of 10.8 during the years 1958—61, the official data imply that those four years saw 15 million excess deaths attributable to the Great Leap Forward in combination with poor weather conditions. The computer reconstruction of China’s population trends utilized in this book, which assumes underreporting of deaths in 1957 as well as in all the famine years, results in an estimated 30 million excess deaths during 1958-61.""" # death toll estimates: low quality studies Aird 1982: flatly asserts that 23 million or fewer must have died, with no explicit explanation: Population Studies and Population Policy in China """The most serious problems with the official data are found in the figures for the food crisis years, 1959-61. It is impossible to relate the 1964 census total to the year-end 1957 registration total without assuming a population. loss in the intervening years that is much greater than would be inferred from the official vital data for the period. The high rates of increase claimed for 1962-64 complicate the problem, because a backward projection based on the 1964 census figure and the official rates of natural increase produces a very low total for year-end 1961-under 642 million, or about 5 million less than the year-end 1957 total. If there was any population growth at all in 1958 and 1959-and there must have been an increase of at least 18 million during those years-the net loss in 1960-61 would have had to be no less than 23 million. However, the extreme rebound in the birth and natural increase rates in 1962 and 1963 needs to be reexamined. If the food shortages caused by the bad harvests of 1961 were still affecting the health and fecundity of women in the first half of 1962, the high 1962 and 1963 birth rates are not plausible. Perhaps a part of the apparent rebound in births in 1962 and 1963 was due to a delay in registering births during the crisis years because the famine had disrupted routine civil activities. If that is the case, the real rebound may not have been as early or as high as the official data show, and the losses during the crisis may not have been as acute as either the foregoing net loss estimates or the official crude death rate of 25.4 for 1960 would imply. The official vital rates of the crisis years must be estimates, but their basis is not known. China's demographers should be permitted to review these estimates; perhaps they could produce a more plausible series. They should also be allowed to investigate the question whether the 1964 census total is too low.29""" Yao 1999: very brief, only data examined is demographic data (fertility and mortality), estimates 18.48 million excess deaths after accounting for reduced fertility: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071644975764353064/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071645512673013760/image.png A Note on the Causal Factors of China’s Famine in 1959–1961 """Table 1 presents the estimated lost population, extra deaths, and lost births. In total, there were 18.48 million extra deaths and 30.79 million lost births in 1959–61. The estimated extra deaths were similar to the estimates made by Peng (1987) and Chang and Wen (1997), but much less than that by Ashton et al. (1984) and quoted in Lin (1990). The estimated lost births were similar to the estimates made by Ashton et al. About 73 percent of the extra deaths took place in 1960 alone. The number of extra deaths in 1959 was only 310,000. Contrary to the claims of Ashton et al. (1984) and Chang and Wen (1997), the death toll in 1958 should be negligible.""" # death toll estimates: todo Ashton et al 1984: considers birth rate, death rate, underreporting, age tables, cohort survivorship, grain production; mentions food availability, policy choices; 29.5 million: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071727328880775178/image.png Famine in China, 1958–61 """Interpolating between pre- and postcrisis mortality levels, we calculate that the number of excess deaths during the crisis amounts to about 17.3 million deaths over age 10 and 12.2 million deaths under age 10, giving a total of almost 30 million excess deaths. The assumptions underlying these calculations, and their results, are shown in Table 3.""" ^ Riskin 1998: Ashton's estimation methods increase the number of deaths: Seven questions about the Chinese famine of 1959–1961 """A peculiarity of the Ashton et al. procedure is that their estimate of baseline, normal child mortality for the famine period is based on the assumption of actual famine-level births and thus is too low. That is, if the famine had not occurred, fertility would have been much higher; applying estimated normal infant mortality rates to the larger number of births would generate a larger "normal" number of infant deaths. Excess infant deaths due to the famine (equal to actual infant deaths in the famine years minus the estimated "normal" number) would thus be fewer than Ashton et al. estimate. Their reason for adopting this procedure was to avoid having to count deaths of infants who were not in fact born. Yet the result is to exaggerate the number of excess deaths. This dilemma presents a good example of the complexity and ambiguities involved in estimating famine mortality.""" # infant mortality estimates from retrospective surveys Zhao Reimondos 2012: life expectancy from birth during the famine was likely around 32.5 years: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071699295776018472/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071705139137740910/image.png The Demography of China's 1958-61 Famine: A Closer Examination """This study concentrates on the demographic consequences of the famine and individual demographic responses in Anhui, Gansu, Guizhou, Henan, Qinghai and Sichuan provinces (Figure 1). These six provinces accounted for more than a quarter of the national population both before and after the famine (Table 1), and were among those most hard-hit by this disaster according to officially reported CDRs. In comparison with the levels recorded in 1957, mortality in the national population increased by 135% in 1960, while mortality in the six selected provinces increased by 236% (Henan) to 654% (Anhui).""""""However, even these data show a considerable increase in mortality during the famine years. In a hypothetical birth cohort that experienced the infant and child mortality recorded in the six provinces in 1957, 76% of members would have survived to age 10. But under the mortality conditions observed in 1958,1959,1960 and 1961, the proportion of surviving hypothetical cohort members would have fallen to 67%, 59%, 60% and 73%, respectively. Under mortality conditions similar to those recorded in 1959 and 1960,40% or more of the cohort would have died before reaching age 10, a proportion close to that given by the Coale-Demeny model life table, region north, females, level 6. If mortality levels in other age groups of the study population were also close to those given by this mortality model, then the life expectancy at birth for the population would be around 32.5 years (Coale and Demeny, 1983).""" Zhao Reimondos 2012: retrospective fertility surveys are very high quality, but they might be biased by survivorship bias: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071697633946636298/image.png The Demography of China's 1958-61 Famine: A Closer Examination """The 1982 and 1988 fertility surveys are among the best demographic surveys ever conducted in the world. [....] However, when these fertility survey data are used to investigate the demographic consequences of the famine, the study may be affected by certain types of selection biases. Such biases arise from systematic differences in mortality and fertility between families where at least one woman survived to the time of the survey and those where all women of the same birth cohorts had died before the survey. Because the fertility of recorded women is likely to have been higher than those who were no longer living at the time of enumeration, and because the survival of children may be related to that of their mother, especially during the famine, results obtained from the sample may not represent what actually happened to the entire population during the famine. These results are probably among the most reliable quantitative evidence we can obtain, however. They can be used as important references for the mortality and fertility impact of the famine for the study areas.""" # causes of decline in grain output Li Yang 2005: The Great Leap Forward: Anatomy of a Central Planning Disaster """Our findings suggest that the most important causal factor is the diversion of resources from agriculture, which was responsible for 33 percent of the collapse of output between 1958 and 1961. Excessive procurement of grain, which decimated the physical strength of the peasantry, is the next largest contributor, accounting for 28.3 percent of the decline in output. Bad weather did play a role, contributing to 12.9 percent of the collapse in production. The crisis thus had the marks of a perfect storm.""" Clement 2012: supports above conclusions: Food availability, food entitlements, and radicalism during the Chinese great leap forward famine: an econometric panel data analysis Meng Qian Yared 2015: supports above conclusions, that enough food was available but central system failed: The Institutional Causes of China’s Great Famine, 1959–1961 # death toll estimates: chen yizi (very bad) Strauss Southerland in WaPo 1994: """Chen Yizi, a former Chinese official now at Princeton University's Center for Modern China, spent years researching the subject in China. He conducted a county-by-county review of deaths in five provinces and, by extrapolation, arrived at 43 million.""" Riskin 1998: Yizi's estimation methods are unknown because they are unpublished: Seven questions about the Chinese famine of 1959–1961 """Chen Yizi's methods of estimation are unknown.""""""Chen Yizi is a former official now at Princeton University, whose estimate was reported in an article in the Washington Post (Southerland, 1994).""" # death toll estimates: yang jisheng's tombstone (bad) Yang 2012: 40 million dead: Tombstone: the great Chinese famine, 1958-1962 """Unnatural death totals calculated by the three Chinese scholars Jin Hui, Cao Shuji, and Wang Weizhi range from 32.5 million to 35 million. Each used a different method, but their results are close. However, Jin Hui and Wang Weizhi didn’t add in unnatural deaths from 1958 and 1962, even though there were starvation deaths in the winter of 1958 and the spring of 1962. Cao Shuji’s calculations include only a portion of the deaths in 1958 and 1962. If the starvation deaths from 1958 and 1962 are added in (based on official figures reported by the provinces, these total 1.81 million for 1958 and 420,000 for 1962, for an overall total of 2.23 million), the total number of starvation deaths during the Great Famine reaches 35 million to 37 million. My research in more than a dozen provinces leads me to conclude that the figure of 36 million approaches the reality but is still too low. Figures provided by those who experienced the Great Famine far exceed the figures used by the statisticians.""" O Grada 2013: retrospective fertility surveys from Zhao Reimondos 2012 set the upper limit of famine mortality below 30 million, around 10 million below Yang's estimate: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071699663448715325/image.png """Under-recording was pervasive not just before the Great Leap famine, but also during it. Again, Ashton et al.. Banister, and others have proposed adjustments. However, estimates of infant and child mortality based on retrospective fertility surveys (Zhao and Reimondos 2012) imply that their corrections may have been on the high side. Banister's numbers - underpinned by what she candidly described as an "arbitrary estimation process" - suggest that life expectancy at birth reached a minimum at 24.6 years in 1960 (Banister 1987, p. 1 16), whereas Zhao and Reimondos (2012, pp. 342-43), using much higher-quality data, produce a figure of 32.5 years for 1959-60. Since the latter's simulations refer only to six of the worst-affected provinces (Anhui, Gansu, Guizhou, Henan, Qinghai, and Sichuan), the aggregate death toll implied by their results is lower than the 30 million proposed by Banister. While the death toll exacted by the Great Leap famine will never be known precisely, Zhao and Reimondos's results make the case for a total much lower - perhaps ten million lower - than that proposed by Yang. The cost in lives lost remains staggering, nonetheless.""" O Grada 2013: China was the "land of famine" because its vast population and extreme poverty made it vulnerable to food disasters: """Yang tends to neglect the famine's historical context and China's economic vulnerability. Both Mao's popularity on the eve of the Great Leap and the extreme brutality of the Leap period followed more than two decades of murderous violence and misery for most Chinese. Estimates of the numbers of deaths caused by famines, droughts, and floods - 80 million between 1810 and 1936 according to Deng Tuo, 2 1 million during the Republican period according to Xia Mingfang - may be exaggerated (as cited in Li 2007, pp. 308, 469; compare Yang, p. 13), but they nevertheless add context to the death toll of the Great Leap famine. China was the "land of famine" because it was extremely poor (Ó Gráda 201 1), and China in the 1950s was still extremely poor.""" # death toll estimates: frank dikotter's mao's great famine (bad) Dikotter 2010: 45 million dead: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071694365744967720/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1071694194684481649/image.png Mao's great famine: the history of China's most devastating catastrophe, 1958-1962 """New evidence was produced in 2005 when Cao Shuji, an historical demographer from Shanghai, systematically worked his way through more than a thousand gazetteers – official local histories published after 1979 by county or city party committees. While acknowledging that this widely diverse set of data, too, ultimately rests on figures made public by the party, it introduced a much more fine-tuned analysis of regional differences. Cao’s estimate was 32.5 million premature deaths. 5""""""Even if we ignore some of the most glaring disparities between archival data and official figures, the gap is in the order of 50 to 100 per cent. It is very difficult to venture an alternative death toll, all the more since so many of the key sets of archival statistics remain prudently under lock and key, far removed from the eyes of prying historians. But there is enough archival evidence, from a sufficiently large diversity of party units, to confirm that the figure of 43 to 46 million premature deaths proposed by Chen Yizi, who was a senior member of a large working group that sifted through internal party documents around 1980, is in all likelihood a reliable estimate. The death toll thus stands at a minimum of 45 million excess deaths. It could be even worse than that. Some historians speculate that the true figure stands as high as 50 to 60 million people. It is unlikely that we will know the full extent of the disaster until the archives are completely opened.""" ^ Wemheuer 2011: review of Dikotter: Dikotter's writing is a polemic focused on painting Mao as the world's greatest killer and communism as terror, not original analysis: """In contrast to other Western scholars, Dikotter managed to gain access to eleven provincial archives. This is a significant achievement, given that the archival system in China is highly restricted. Remarkably, about 80 per cent of his footnotes are based on these archival documents. However, if one is familiar with the research3 and expects a brand new interpretation of the famine, one will be disappointed. Dikotter's account reads like a long list of atrocities committed by Mao's regime against the Chinese people and bears the hallmarks of having been written in furious outrage. The polemic and emotional language of the book is clearly targeted at the general reader. The main arguments in the first part of the book on elite politics are reminiscent of Jasper Becker's popular monograph:4 the "madman" Mao Zedong ruined the country during the Great Leap and ignored the famine because of dogmatism, selfishness and stupidity. [....] Mao's Great Famine has an obvious political agenda: to reduce Chinese Communism to terror. [....] It is a pity that Dikotter did not use his very valuable new sources to present more sophisticated arguments. We can place Mao 's Great Famine in our bookshelf next to The Black Book of Communism 26 and Jung Chang's Mao: The Unknown Story?1 but no one who works on Maoist China will be able to escape the debate about it. The best the book can do is inspire scholars and students to continue their research and to learn more about the greatest famine in Chinese history.""" ^ Wemheuer 2011: review of Dikotter: Dikotter uses very basic math and assumes a very high underreporting rate to achieve his estimate of 45 million: ""The question of how many people died as the result of the Great Leap still remains controversial. Based on official population surveys from the 1980s, Western and Chinese demographers have estimated that between 15 and 40 million people died. Dikotter argues that the minimum would be an excess mortality of 45 million (p. 33). It seems that his interest is in presenting the highest number possible, to label the Great Leap as the greatest mass killing in human history. He arrives at this figure based on discrepancies between the estimates of historian demographer Cao Shuji and data from some county security police reports. Basing his estimate on all available county gazetteers, Cao suggests excess mortality to be 32.5 million;20 Dikotter adds 40 to 50 per cent to official county statistics, and arrives at 45 million. The economist demographer Coimac O Grada has criticized this method as speculation.21 Furthermore, Dikotter does not present much evidence for his claim that 2.5 million people were beaten to death and 1 to 3 million committed suicide (p. 304). Instead of using local examples to speculate about the numbers on a national level, it would be better to accept that it is impossible to know how many people died during the famine, because the statistical system collapsed and it is very unlikely that the Central Party Archive will declassify its most sensitive documents as long the CCP remains in power. [....] We should not forget that the Great Leap was not the first famine in modern Chinese history, but the last in a historical cycle that started from the late Qing. The Chinese scholar Xia Mingfang estimates the victims of drought and floods between 1911 and 1948 at over 18 million people.2""" ^ O Grada 2011: """The tone throughout is one of abhorrence and outrage, and sometimes MGF reads more like a catalogue of anecdotes about atrocities than a sustained analytic argument. In style and approach it recalls Jung Chang and Jon Halliday’s controversial Mao: The Unknown Story (2005); indeed, Chang leads the ”praise” for MGF on the back cover. MGF may become the best-known account of the GLF famine for a while. But should it? It is not a comprehensive account of the famine; it is dismissive of academic work on the topic; it is weak on context and unreliable with data; and it fails to note that many of the horrors it describes were recurrent features of Chinese history during the previous century or so. More attention to economic history and geography and to the comparative history of famines would have made for a much more useful book. In what follows I focus on the economic context of the famine, review features of the famine treated by Dikötter but worth further study, and conclude by discussing the role in these events of Mao and the party elite.""""""MGF is full of numbers but there are few tables and no graphs. Quantification is not its strong point. So we read that ”between 1 and 3 million people took their lives” by suicide during the GLF (p. 304); that in Xinyang in Henan province “67,000” people were clubbed to death by militias (pp. 117, 294); that in some unspecified location “forty-five women were sold to a mere six villages in less than half a year” (p. 261); that “at least 2.5 million…were beaten or tortured to death” during the Leap (p. 298); and that delays to shipping in the main ports during some unspecified period cost “£300,000” (p. 156). An estimate of 0.7 million deaths from starvation and disease in labor-correction camps between 1958 and 1962 is obtained by applying an arbitrary ”rough death rate” of two-fifths to a guess at the camp population at its peak (p. 289). The main basis for the claim that “up to two-fifths of the housing stock turned into rubble” (p. xii) seems to be a report describing conditions in Hunan province from Liu Shaoqi to Mao on 11 May 1959, after Liu had spent a month in the region of his birth (p. 169).2 On page after page of MGF, numbers on topics ranging from rats killed in Shanghai to illegal immigration to Hong Kong are produced with no discussion of their reliability or provenance: all that seems to matter is that they are ”big.”""" #####c ##### # fake gulag death rate graph #####o # fake graph fake graph of gulag death rates: http://socdoneleft.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/prisoner_mortality_rate_in_gulags.jpg transcript: """Prisoner Mortality Rate Within Gulags // Tsar Rule of Russia // Communist Party Rule of Russia // Sources: Demographic Modernization of Russia. 1900-2000. Ed. A.G. Vishnevsky. M., 2006, p. 432. // Tsaplin V.V. Archival materials on the number of prisoners in the late 30s. // Questions of history, 1991. [Wheatcroft 1996] The German and Soviet repression and mass killings, 1930-45. In: Europe-Asia Studies, 1996, vol. 48, No 8. Wheatcroft S.G. The crisis of the late Tsarist penal system. Challenging traditional views of Russian history, 2002, pp 27-54. // See also Otcheti po glavnomu tyuremnomu upravieniyu 1885-1915. Spb-PG.""" # source 1 source of death rates: Wheatcroft 2002: Challenging Traditional Views of Russian History: Table 2.8: the error here is simply that the graphmaker read Table 2.8 as per hundred rather than per thousand, so all results for the Tsarist period are multiplied by 10: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/945478190409867374/FMKNqtnXsAgFxlv.png # source 2 not the source of the pre-1900 death rates: source 1: Вишневский [Vishnevsky] 2005: Демографическая модернизация России [Demographic modernization of Russia, 1900-2000]: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070299891437412413/image.png """Таблица 19.5. Общий коэффициент смертности заключенных и населения России в целом, 1930–1956, % // Россия в целом // В лагерях, колониях и тюрьмах // В лагерях и колониях // Только в лагерях""" # better source Wheatcroft 2009: estimates of crude mortality rate by punishment from 1890 to 1953: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/858950306842148874/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070306048256254032/image.png #####c ##### # gulags after stalin #####o # size of gulags Kozlov and Gilburd 2013: number of inmates 1940-1970: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070217912763289610/image.png """Inmate population, USSR, 1940–70: Camps, colonies, and prisons of the NKVD-MVD-MGB (1940–60); camps and colonies of the MVD (without prisons) (1962–70). Sources: Viktor Zemskov, ‘Deportatsii naseleniia. Spetsposelentsy i ssyl’nye. Zakliuchennye,’ in Naselenie Rossii v XX veke: Istoricheskie ocherki, ed. V.B. Zhiromskaia (Moscow, 2001), 2:183; GARF R-7523/95a/109/99–101 (1961); R-7523/95a/110/29 (1962); R-9492/6/290/3 (1963–70).""" # comparisons to penal system under stalin Hardy 2016: gulags after Stalin were dramatically reformed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070204277227790377/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070204286111326208/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070204293891760168/image.png """Criminologists globally in the postwar era promoted a variety of penal measures that avoided incarceration or that placed inmates in “open” institutions, and the Soviets were very much engaged in such efforts.7 Yet no country, in the East or West, was able to displace incarceration as the backbone of their penal system. From Western Europe to the United States to apartheid South Africa, prisons and their equivalents remained the punishment of choice. And these were not “liberal” institutions, but ones in which compulsory labor, corruption, beatings, and prisoner-on-prisoner violence abounded. Moreover, they were often places of severely curtailed rights and arbitrary rule. Some commentators from the period poignantly noted that prison systems in the West were in essence “totalitarian” islands in otherwise free societies. [....] This is not to defend the atrocities committed by and in the Gulag under Stalin and to a lesser extent under Khrushchev, which Solzhenitsyn masterfully exposes, but to remind that some of what he describes is endemic to prisons in general, not to Soviet institutions in particular.""" # comparison to penal systems internationally Hardy 2016: the Soviet reforms achieved their goals of reducing state brutality and centering re-education over economic labor: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1070191582160105472/image.png """The reforms of the Khrushchev period had an important lasting effect on the Soviet penal system. This certainly holds true in terms of the Gulag's permanent reduction in size, but it also applies to the reorientation of Gulag aims and the resultant improved conditions experienced by its inmates. Although certain inmate privileges were reduced or eliminated in the early 1960s at the culmination of the “camp is not a resort” campaign, many of the most important prisoner-friendly reforms of the 1950s, such as parole and the eight-hour workday, remained. Despite certain continuities, therefore, the Gulag did not return to a state of unchecked (and even abetted) violence, grueling labor, and oppressive living conditions—the defining features of the Stalinist penal system. De-Stalinization in the penal sphere was a real and enduring legacy of the Khrushchev era.""" #####c #####c ##### # # uncategorized categories # #####o ##### # urbanism #####o # roundabout safety: todo reread xxx: two studies: #####c ##### # horsewatering examples #####o Horsburgh 1996: """19 See, e.g., RICHARD J. HERRNSTEIN & CHARLES MURRAY, THE BELL CURVE: INTELLIGENCE AND CLASS STRUCTURE IN AMERICAN LIFE 303, 332, 378-79, 389 (1994) (arguing Blacks are genetically less intelligent than whites, singling out for special emphasis single mothers on welfare, and that government programs to equalize socioeconomic conditions are misguided). While the authors do not explicitly endorse eugenic sterilization, they encourage the reader to draw this conclusion. See also id. at 341, 344-452. 183""""""See HERRNSTEIN & MURRAY, supra note 19, at 2-4. 184 See id. at 295-99, 301-11 (insinuating while not actually stating that the difference in Black/white I.Q. scores is proof of inherent distinctions in cognitive abilities).""" Herrnstein and Murray 1994: The Bell Curve: #####c ##### # overconsumption #####o # comparison costs ending world hunger costs $30 billion per year, according to the UN ending homelessness in the USA costs $20 billion per year, according to HUD the upper bound for ending world hunger is $265 billion per year, with a resulting gain of $276 billion per year in increased productivity # beauty spending American beauty spending costs (.11\*0+.21\*11+.31\*26+.18\*51+.18\*100)\*(12)\*(320 million) = $144 billion per year (lower bound) # fireworks firework-related injuries cost $100 million per year: # food in the US in 2011, obesity's direct and indirect costs were $6899 per year per capita: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5409636/ [unformatted, unread] #####c ##### # science funding: basic science, research & development spending, and economic benefits #####o # trend over time Dyevre 2023: federal R&D spending rose from 0.8% of GDP in 1950 to 1.9% in 1960, then fell to 0.5% in 2000; private spending rose from 0.5% in 1950 to 2.5% in 2020; all other spending is basically irrelevant, including tax credits, NGO funding, university funding, and state government funding: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1176105212793077760/image.png Public R&D Spillovers and Productivity Growth """FIGURE 11. R&D tax credits and R&D expenses""" Dyevre 2023: public R&D spending was increasing in about 2/5 of rich countries (and China), stagnant in 1/5, and falling in 2/5: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1176104114795593738/image.png Public R&D Spillovers and Productivity Growth """FIGURE 12. Historical public R&D trends in selected countries Notes: Data come from the OECD, series ‘Gross domestic expenditure on R&D by sector of performance and source of funds’. Available here.""" # examples of basic research yielding massive results Leander and Whitton 2014: gives examples for a classroom setting to explain how basic research may result in enormous (and unforseen) breakthroughs, such as the fluorescent GFP gene: Bling My Research! A Mock Grant Panel Activity Illustrating the Importance of Basic Research """First, show the class a photograph of a cancer cell labeled "GFP." [...] Briefly mention the leaps in understanding of cancer cell growth and cell division that GFP has made possible. Introduce the students to [...] Osamu Shimomura, who [...] was hired to simply investigate why a dried jellyfish glowed green when crushed. The resulting manuscript describing GFP gives no hint to the future implications of this protein (Shimomura et al., 1957), a discovery for which he would eventually share the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2008. Finally, [...] [m]ention the importance of sequencing in understanding the evolution of HIV. [...] [I]ntroduce them to a profile of John Trela, Alice Chien, and David Edgar, who discovered Taq polymerase during basic research investigations. This discovery has earned billions of dollars in royalties (Fore et al., 2006) yet was the unintentional result of a basic research investigation into life at high temperatures (Chien et al., 1976).""" Lane 2015: basic research often results in major breakthroughs, such as in cancer research, which started in the 1971 "War on Cancer": Report: Basic Science Research Is Critical for U.S. Well-Being "Basic research is often misunderstood, because it often seems to have no immediate payoff," the MIT report says. "Yet it was just such federally funded research into the fundamental working of cells, intensified beginning with the 'War on Cancer' in 1971, that led over time to a growing arsenal of sophisticated new anticancer therapies — 19 new drugs approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in the past two years." It adds, "Do we want similar progress on Alzheimer's, which already affects five million Americans, more than any single form of cancer? Then we should expand research in neurobiology, brain chemistry and the science of aging."""" ^ report cited: MIT Committee to Evaluate the Innovation Deficit: The Future Postponed: Why Declining Investment in Basic Research Threatens a U.S. Innovation Deficit # r&d is overwhelmingly funded by big corporations and federal and state governments Dyevre 2023: R&D spending by firms below 5 employees made up 1.3% of all private R&D spending: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1176100877573042186/image.png?ex=656da44c&is=655b2f4c&hm=c7a98bfe8ee7d666c79d8d2e5102ebdf2c0f0efd47374399bd63cc98a38b3398& Public R&D Spillovers and Productivity Growth """Notes: Series on R&D expenditures come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (pre-1953) and from the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, a National Science Foundation body (post-1953). Note that R&D expenditures by firms with fewer than 5 employees (‘microbusinesses’) are not counted in the NSF surveys on R&D spending before 2016. See NSF National Science Board (2022), footnote 5, p. 73. The inclusion of microbusiness R&D in total private R&D makes little difference: it accounted for only $4 to $5 billion in 2016 (out of $375 billion, i.e. 1.3%), year of its inclusion.""" # basic research is overwhelmingly funded by federal and state governments Dyevre 2023: 1/3 of public R&D spending was basic science, 1/3 applied research, and 1/3 development (each 0.25% of GDP); 7% of private R&D spending was basic science (0.2% GDP), 15% applied research (0.4% GDP), and 78% development (2% GDP): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1176103073236664360/image.png Public R&D Spillovers and Productivity Growth # public-funded r&d is better Dyevre 2023: public R&D spending has larger spillover effects (and therefore larger pro-productivity effects) than private R&D spending; this diffrence (and the decline in public R&D spending) can explain 1/3 of the decline in productivity growth from 1950 to 2018: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1176100599524229140/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1176100611222163486/image.png Public R&D Spillovers and Productivity Growth """I first document three new facts about publicly-funded innovations: they are (i) more reliant on science, (ii) more likely to open new technological fields, and (iii) more likely to generate knowledge spillovers, especially toward smaller firms. I then use two instrumental variable strategies–a historical shift-share IV and a patent examiner leniency instrument–to estimate the impact of the decline in public R&D on the productivity of firms through spillovers. I find that a 1% decline in public R&D spillovers causes a 0.17% decline in productivity growth. Public R&D spillovers are three times as impactful as private R&D spillovers for firm productivity and their impact persists at the sector level. Moreover, smaller firms experience larger productivity gains from public R&D spillovers. I calibrate a model of growth with heterogeneous firms which suggests that the decline in public R&D can explain around a third of the decline in TFP growth in the US from 1950 to 2018, and half of the rise in size inequality between firms over the same period.""" # effects of politics Kushi 2015: the link between Democratic or Republican administrationsand R&D spending is unclear: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/505160156183789569/unknown.png """This study's multivariate multiple regression models reveal significant relationships between party affiliation and R&D funding allocations. Yet the results do not necessarily portray a straightforward, constant pattern between Democrats and Republicans that corroborates already existing ideological notions about the party platforms. For example, Democratic control of the government prompts increased spending for some agencies, such as NASA, EPA, DOC, and DOT, while prompting decreased spending in other agencies, such as NSF, USDA, and NIH. In fact, in terms of overall R&D funding, Republican presidents appear more eager to spend than their Democratic counterparts. But this result could be due to Republicans' consistently spending more on defense functions, while their Democrat counterparts consistently spend more on smaller budgetary functions, such as Space, Energy, Natural Resources, and the Environment.""" # op-eds in favor of basic research funding Gruss 2012: government is better at handling basic science because it is too risky for private businesses: Driven by Basic Research """For business management it is risky, and given the long time periods required for practical benefit, not sufficiently profitable, for most companies to finance such curiosity-driven fundamental research. Instead, this basic scientific research must be adequately funded by governments, both to produce the skilled problem-solvers needed by the private sector and because the research results themselves deliver substantial benefits to the local economy. [....] Looking at these facts, it is clear that Europe and the United States (investing 2 and 2.8% of GDP, respectively) are gambling away opportunities if they do not improve their investments in R&D with an emphasis on basic research. Japan and Korea are already investing around 3.4% of GDP, and China and India are also gradually catching up. This allows these nations much more flexibility in the scope of their investments. Still more important, however, the global challenges that face us all will only be resolved with new knowledge yielded by basic research. We must explore new means of feeding nine billion people soon. We must find new ways to provide solutions to energy demand and climate change. We must discover how to maintain health in an ever-aging society. So the real question is not “Can we afford to invest in basic research?” It is “How can we afford not to?” Because, as Francis Bacon also wrote, “He that will not apply new remedies must accept new evils; for time is the greatest innovator.”""" Casassus 2014: basic research funding has declined: Put focus back on basic research, say science unions """An unrelenting political push towards economic returns and short-term targets for research is endangering scientists' academic freedom in many countries around the world, the leading French researchers' union has warned.""" #####c ##### # good fiction / good stories / good anecdotes #####o # god as character: Purgatory Has Too Nice a View: http://kelseighn.com/index.php/2016/03/01/purgatory-has-too-nice-a-view/ We Build Yesterday: http://kelseighn.com/index.php/2016/11/24/we-build-yesterday/ # science fiction technology / social conditioning in views of different species on pain: earth as magic-free zone: lex luthor was right; superman is bad: # real stories Lottery winners: https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/lotto-winners/ # memes Why Do Keynote Speakers Keep Suggesting That Improving Security Is Possible? https://www.usenix.org/conference/usenixsecurity18/presentation/mickens Jews in Space: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAZhtT-dUyo # dragon bostrom Bostrom dragon of life extension: #####c ##### # handedness #####o # trend over time higher quality data: 5% in 1890, 3% in 1900, 11% in 1960: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/790746339112910918/unknown.png lower quality data: 10% in 1760, 3% in 1900, 11% in 1960: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/790746330037223424/unknown.png anthropological data: ~50% among pre-humans, ~0% among early humans, ~10% among early modern humans: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/790747195178745856/unknown.png # causes of trend over time: genetics theory: """Social pressure can take many forms, and it is useful to distinguish between direct and indirect social pressure. Direct social pressure involves left-handed individuals being made to write with their right hand[.] [....] However, direct social pressure of this sort only alters the phenotype, not the genotype, and the individuals still carry the genes that made them originally left-handed, and if transmitted those genes would allow those individuals’ offspring to become left-handed. Indirect social pressure is much more subtle, and does not directly alter the phenotype of the left-hander, but instead acts to make left-handers stigmatized, ostracized, and taboo, so that they find it harder to have offspring. The result is that their genes are less likely to be passed on, and hence the frequency of the genes responsible for left-handedness falls, and left-handedness becomes less common in the next generation.""" data: """Table 3.3 shows that while at the end of the twentieth century, right- and left-handed parents had similar numbers of children, despite parents around the turn of the century in general having more children than modern parents, left-handers had relatively fewer children, two left-handed parents having only 2.32 children, compared with 2.69 children when one parent was left-handed, and 3.10 children when both parents were right-handed.""" # trend over time among ethnicities https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/790747111015710751/unknown.png # causes of differences across regions: genetics """In Canada, where the rate of left-handedness was 9.8%, the odds ratio was 2.09×, whereas in India, where the rate of left-handedness was 5.2%, the odds ratio was 3.07×. The implication was clear: the majority of the difference between Canada and India must be due to differences in gene frequency rather than due to differences in social pressure. Subsequently, Bryden and I collaborated with Taha Amir in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yokahida Ida in Japan, and we also put together larger Western samples (mainly Canada and the UK), and Indian samples. Of 17 850, 14 924, 4485, and 656 offspring in the West, UAE, India, and Japan, for whom p(L) was 11.5%, 7.5%, 5.8%, and 4.0% respectively, the odds ratios for the effect of having a left-handed parent were 2.11×, 2.23×, 3.18× and 3.57× respectively, which is the pattern expected from gene frequency differences. Geographical differences in the modern world seem therefore to be primarily genetic in origin, rather than due to differences in social pressure (or what I will refer to subsequently as “direct social pressure”).""" # causes of handedness: genetic mcmanus 2007: handedness is almost certainly genetic: mcmanus 2013: handedness is almost certainly very polygenic: #####c ##### # scientific communication #####o Ioannidis 2005: Rafi and Greenland 2020: #####c ##### # waco siege and branch davidians #####o # branch davidians set the fires recordings of the Branch Davidians: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/775447110694469632/unknown.png testimonies from surviving Branch Davidians: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/775447120236249129/unknown.png apocalyptic beliefs of the Branch Davidians and David Koresh: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/775447128377131048/unknown.png #####c ##### # alcohol beer wine liquor drinking endgame #####o # literature review Carpenter and Dobkin 2010: literature review: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002727188203843726/unknown.png # drinking culture: do lower legal drinking ages create better drinking cultures? no DeJong Blanchette 2014: long-term effects: four studies, using variation in increases of Minimum Legal Drinking Age (MLDA) in the United States, suggest that raising the MLDA from 18 to 21 significantly reduced heavy drinking for current young adults and through those young adults' lifetimes; the nationwide 21 MLDA decreased heavy drinking by about 4%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1217926029897629896/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1217926059547431015/image.png Case Closed: Research Evidence on the Positive Public Health Impact of the Age 21 Minimum Legal Drinking Age in the United States """Working with several years of data from the Monitoring the Future surveys, O’Malley and Wagenaar (1991) demonstrated that high school seniors and recent high school graduates drank less when the MLDA was 21 and then continued to do so through their early twenties, after they had reached the legal drinking age. A more recent analysis of Monitoring the Future data by Carpenter and colleagues (2007) found that exposure to an age 18 MLDA was associated with a higher prevalence of youth drinking (2.9 percentage points) and a higher prevalence of heavy drinking (1.7 percentage points). The authors estimated that national adoption of the age 21 MLDA was responsible for decreases in both outcomes of approximately 4%. Plunk and colleagues (2013) examined data for past-year drinkers born between 1949 and 1972 from the 1991–1992 National Longitudinal Alcohol Epidemiologic Survey (NLAES) and the 2001–2002 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). They found that respondents who had been exposed to a lower MLDA as minors were more likely to report frequent heavy episodic drinking during the year before their survey interview, while also being less likely to report any past-year moderate drinking. At the same time, MLDA exposure did not affect overall drinking frequency or average alcohol consumption. The authors noted that the results were largely driven by men and those not attending college, perhaps because of alcohol being more readily available to underage college students. Norberg and colleagues (2009), working with data from the same NLAES and NESARC surveys, showed that adults exposed to an MLDA less than 21 years during the 1970s and 1980s were more likely several decades later to meet criteria for an alcohol use disorder or other drug use disorder, as defi ned by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (American Psychiatric Association, 1994). Their analysis controlled statistically for state and birth-year fi xed effects, age at assessment, alcohol tax rates, and other demographic and social background variables. This result did not appear to be mediated by age at drinking initiation, leading the authors to state that their fi ndings are likely explained by the greater frequency and intensity of alcohol consumption among youths exposed to a lower MLDA.""" DeJong Blanchette 2014: example of decreasing the drinking age in New Zealand saw increased heavy drinking, increased hospitalization, and increased vehicle accidents: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1217932761436917760/image.png Case Closed: Research Evidence on the Positive Public Health Impact of the Age 21 Minimum Legal Drinking Age in the United States # drinking culture: does Europe have a better drinking culture? no DeJong Blanchette 2014: cross-national comparisons are usually bad (because enormous cultural and legal differences exist between countries), but youth in Europe were far more likely to report problem drinking and Europe has a far higher burden from alcohol consumption: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1217945501828382831/image.png Case Closed: Research Evidence on the Positive Public Health Impact of the Age 21 Minimum Legal Drinking Age in the United States """Data from the 2003 European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (EPAD) shows that the vast majority of the 35 participating countries have greater proportions of high school–aged youths who report heavy alcohol use and drinking to intoxication than does the United States (Grube, 2005). Subsequent EPAD surveys in the United States and Europe, plus similar surveys for the Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children project, have also shown that lifetime and annual prevalence rates are much higher in Europe than in the United States (Beccaria and White, 2012). Prevalence rates for drunkenness are also lower in the United States. In 2011, 36% of U.S. tenthgraders reported having been drunk in their lifetime, 29% in the past year, and 14% in the past month, compared with 47%, 37%, and 17%, respectively, of European youth ages 15–16 (Beccaria and White, 2012). It should also be noted that, compared with other regions of the world, Europe has the highest per capita alcohol use, the highest percentage of deaths attributed to alcohol (about twice the worldwide percentage), the highest burden of disease (i.e., disability) related to alcohol, and the highest prevalence of alcohol dependence (Gilmore and Atkinson, 2010).""" Keller et al 2009: cross-national comparison of Minimum Legal Drinking Age (MLDA) laws showed no clear relationship between MLDA and rates of heavy drinking; however, this study used no statistical controls: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1217931939906846910/image.png Legal Ages for Purchase and Consumption of Alcohol and Heavy Drinking Among College Students in Canada, Europe, and the United States # effects of increased minimum drinking age: positive DeJong Blanchette 2014: women who lived in states with 18-year-old Minimum Legal Drinking Age (MLDA) laws were significantly more likely to die from homicide or suicide than similar women in states wtih 21 MLDA: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1217947167549816882/image.png Case Closed: Research Evidence on the Positive Public Health Impact of the Age 21 Minimum Legal Drinking Age in the United States """Using a similar analysis strategy, Grucza and colleagues (2012) examined data from the U.S. Multiple Cause of Death fi les for 1990–2004 to identify records for which either suicide or homicide was a contributing cause of death, based on International Classifi cation of Diseases (ICD) codes. To conduct the analysis, the authors assumed that individuals who resided in their birth state at the time of death resided in their birth state when they were between ages 18 and 20. They found an increased risk of both homicide and suicide for adult women who were exposed to a lower MLDA and were legally permitted to drink when they were younger than ages 18–20. This effect only occurred for women born after 1960; the reasons for this fi nding require further investigation.""" # effects of alcohol beverage monopoly: positive Stockwell et al 2018: privatizing alcohol monopolies massively increases hours, slightly increases prices, and overall sharpply increases provision of alcohol, which significantly increases the health risks of alcohol; privatizing Sweden's alcohol monopoly would lead to about 1000 more deaths per year: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1217948627121737819/image.png?ex=6605e20d&is=65f36d0d&hm=7c81cc9dbc9442a9d43e99c1b6ffee6c1063f7cef34a53b2e7aa5cdc5865280e& Estimating the public health impact of disbanding a government alcohol monopoly: application of new methods to the case of Sweden """Replacing government stores with private liquor stores (Scenario 1) led to a 20.0% (95% CI, 15.3–24.7) increase in per capita consumption. Replacement with grocery stores (Scenario 2) led to a 31.2% (25.1–37.3%) increase. With InterMAHP there were 763 or + 47% (35–59%) and 1234 or + 76% (60–92%) more deaths per year, for Scenarios 1 and 2 respectively. With ARIMA, there were 850 (334–1444) more deaths per year in Scenario 1 and 1418 more in Scenario 2 (543–2505). InterMAHP also estimated 10,859 or + 29% (22–34%) and 16,118 or + 42% (35–49%) additional hospital stays per year respectively.""' # effects of alcohol stores: location-based studies Scribner Cohen Allen 1999: New Orleans tracts with 10% more locations selling alcohol for off-site consumption ("off-sale", eg groceries) significantly correlated with 2.4% higher homicides per person: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002698670854127636/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002698879235534918/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002698975733874821/unknown.png on-sale (i.e., bars and restaurants), off-sale (i.e., liquor stores, convenience stores, grocery stores # effects of a temporary alcohol ban: major effect Barron et al 2022: a very sudden ban on alcohol sales in South Africa for 5 weeks plausibly caused a 14% decrease in all non-natural deaths, 21% decrease in homicide, 33% decrease in assault, and 19% decrease in rape: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002452227732029440/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002456218343833650/unknown.png # effects of taxes and quotas: soviet experience: anti-alcohol program saved many lives Shkolnikov et al 1998: under Gorbachov's anti-alcohol campaign, life expectancy rose by nearly 4 years for men and 1 year for women: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002738832569028608/unknown.png Shkolnikov et al 1998: under Gorbachov's anti-alcohol campaign, homicide initially dropped by 40%; comparisons beyond 1984-1986 may be spurious due to changes in how the Soviet Union reported homicide: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1003070847881322587/unknown.png """Thus, the reversal due to the Gorbachev anti-alcohol campaign involved all types of violent deaths, but the subsequent negative changes were induced by different dynamics according to specific causes. Alcohol consumption is no longer the main explanation of Russian mortality from violence. Traffic accidents rose suddenly in 1988-1989 when the use of individual cars grew, and the safety of roads diminished. But rather quickly in the 1990s, the phenomenon ended as a result of the increasing difficulties with energy supplies. The homicide increase observed in 1988-1989 perhaps resulted from the shock of economic reforms and the decline in the standard of living, which, reinforced by the declining authoritative and police system, increased the opportunities for crime. However, such a hypothesis does not explain the slowdown observed in 1990-1991, when such difficulties had become even more intense.""" Shkolnikov and Nemtsov 1997: under Gorbachov's anti-alcohol campaign (quadrupled alcohol prices, banned alcohol in public, dramatically limited state production), consumption of alcohol declined by ~22%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002743807793709136/unknown.png samogon = moonshine; adjustment method: """Under these circumstances, it is reasonable to look for an indicator of alcohol consumption other than sugar sales that is less sensitive to external influence. The ratio of accidental and violent deaths with alcohol present in the blood (VDA) to "sober" accidental and violent deaths (VDS) satisfies this condition. (Accidental poisonings by alcohol are excluded from VDA and VDS figures because in this case, alcohol causes death independently of other factors.)""" # alcohol and domestic violence around sports Ivandic Kirchmaier Torres-Blas 2021: the increase of domestic abuse after football games in Britain is driven entirely by perpetrators who had drank alcohol; and this, entirely by those who had drank during or before mid-day games; this suggests that moving games later may prevent domestic abuse: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002452790171418644/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002791018137133136/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1002791173787750430/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1003066796988960838/unknown.png # alcohol tax: effect on domestic violence Zeoli 2010: correlational evidence suggests that intimate partner homicide is not significantly affected by state or federal beer excise taxes in 46 cities: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/821830845294968842/unknown.png # todo several studies cited: https://www.vox.com/2016/1/26/10833208/europe-lower-drinking-age similar studies cited here: https://www.vox.com/2016/1/19/10761802/drinking-age Elder et al 2010: review of taxes and alcohol consumption: A 2006 study by Gruenewald and colleagues, for example, examined California hospital admission for assaults and found that assaults were more common in areas with many alcohol outlets that required offpremises consumption such as liquor stores than in areas with many outlets where alcohol is consumed on the premises, such as bars. In fact, Gruenewald et al. (2006) found that bar density increased the assault rate only in low-income poor communities and rural communities, but not in stable, wealthy communities. A third approach for addressing concerns about omitted variables bias is to examine how the opening and closing of alcohol outlets affects crime rates. Teh (2008) employs this type of strategy in an event-study framework using data on liquor outlets in Los Angeles. Her empirical specifications include area fixed effects, which ease concerns about the time-invariant characteristics of neighborhoods that might affect both crime rates and the probability that a liquor store is located in the neighborhood. In her main specifications the effects of liquor availability are identified from liquor store openings and closings. She finds that both property and violent crimes increase immediately after an alcohol outlet opens, and these effects are larger in the immediate vicinity of the outlet and in low-income neighborhoods. #####c ##### # tobacco cigarettes vaping endgame #####o # medical consensus: eradication 2021 position of the American College of Cardiology, American Heart Association, European Society of Cardiology, and the World Heart Federation: total eradication of smoking remains the goal: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/919288379479314432/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/919288463126298744/unknown.png """Recognizing the tremendous toll that combustible tobacco products have on global health, we call for stronger government actions that more rapidly reduce the use of combustible tobacco products. Towards this aim, we support lowering nicotine concentrations in all combustible tobacco products[.] [....] We are calling on governments to raise the price of tobacco products to levels that effectively promote adult cessation and substantially reduce youth initiation. Eliminating the sale of menthol cigarettes and other flavoured tobacco products is essential to eradicating the global tobacco epidemic[.] [....] Governments should protect people from tobacco smoke by enacting comprehensive smoke-free policies, including combustible, heated tobacco, and electronic products, for all indoor public places. To the extent possible under existing legal frameworks, governments should establish and enforce comprehensive bans on tobacco industry advertising, promotions, and sponsorships. Effective pictorial health warnings should be included on all tobacco product packaging, and where possible under existing legal frameworks, plain/standardized tobacco product packaging should be used. [....] Finally, governments must take greater actions to restrict or prohibit the sale of tobacco products while ensuring established tobacco users have the support needed to quit successfully.""" # does vaping reducing smoking 2021 position of the American College of Cardiology, American Heart Association, European Society of Cardiology, and the World Heart Federation: total eradication of smoking remains the goal: """Evidence is limited regarding the efficacy of e-cigarettes as a smoking cessation aid. Many e-cigarette users also continue to smoke cigarettes, and dual use of e-cigarettes while continuing to smoke traditional cigarettes is not associated with higher rates of quitting.""" Hartmann-Boyce 2020: meta-study: only a few large trials, but found moderate evidence that quit rates were higher among those randomly assigned to receive nicotine e-cigarettes compared with nicotine replacement therapy and among those randomly assigned to receive nicotine e-cigarettes compared with nonnicotine e-cigarettes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/919315831744245811/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/919315845962956840/unknown.png #####c ##### # george floyd's death #####o # hennepin county autopsy report by andrew baker Andrew Baker 2020 May 26: press release: Floyd's death was a "homicide", caused by "cardiopulmonary arrest" complicated by "law enforcement subdual, restraint, and neck compression", with other significant conditions "arteriosclerotic and hypertensive heart disease; fentanyl intoxication; recent methamphetamine use" (high blood pressure, slightly larger heart, fatty arteries, fent, meth): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1032432279403909130/unknown.png """Cause of death: Cardiopulmonary arrest complicating law enforcement subdual, restraint, and neck compression Manner of death: Homicide How injury occurred: Decedent experienced a cardiopulmonary arrest while being restrained by law enforcement officer(s) Other significant conditions: Arteriosclerotic and hypertensive heart disease; fentanyl intoxication; recent methamphetamine use Please direct any media inquiries to Carolyn Marinan, Hennepin County Communications at carolyn.marinan@hennepin.us. Comments: Manner of death classification is a statutory function of the medical examiner, as part of death certification for purposes of vital statistics and public health. Manner of death is not a legal determination of culpability or intent, and should not be used to usurp the judicial process. Such decisions are outside the scope of the Medical Examiner’s role or authority. Under Minnesota state law, the Medical Examiner is a neutral and independent office and is separate and distinct from any prosecutorial authority or law enforcement agency.""" Andrew Baker 2020 May 26: full autopsy report: several small blunt force injuries were present (especially on face), natural diseases were present: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1032435718334718123/unknown.png """46-year-old man who became unresponsive while being restrained by law enforcement officers; he received emergency medical care in the field and subsequently in the Hennepin HealthCare (HHC) Emergency Department, but could not be resuscitated.""" Andrew Baker 2020 May 26: full autopsy report: fentanyl and methamphetamines were found in blood: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1032436664183828541/unknown.png Andrew Baker 2020 May 26: full autopsy report: Floyd did not have active COVID: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1032435973910437921/unknown.png """Comments: The finding of sickled-appearing cells in many of the autopsy tissue sections prompted the Hemoglobin S quantitation reported above. This quantitative result is indicative of sickle cell trait. Red blood cells in individuals with sickle cell trait are known to sickle as a postmortem artifact. The decedent’s antemortem peripheral blood smear (made from a complete blood count collected 5/25/20 at 9:00 p.m.) was reviewed by an expert HHC hematopathologist at the Medical Examiner’s request. This review found no evidence of antemortem sickling. The decedent was known to be positive for 2019-nCoV RNA on 4/3/2020. Since PCR positivity for 2019-nCoV RNA can persist for weeks after the onset and resolution of clinical disease, the autopsy result most likely reflects asymptomatic but persistent PCR positivity from previous infection.""" # autopsist testimony: floyd died from neck depression, not fentanyl Andrew Baker, did autopsy on George Floyd: the top line cause of death was subdual, restraint, nad neck compression by law enforcement; these were the most significant causes of death: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1032440100849725472/unknown.png """"In my opinion, the law enforcement subdual, restraint and the neck compression was just more than Mr. Floyd could take, by virtue of those heart conditions," Baker concluded. There were fentanyl and methamphetamine in Floyd's toxicology report, Blackwell noted, and inquired why Baker had not listed those as the "top line" causes of death in his report. "The top line of the cause of death is really what you think is the most important thing that you think precipitated the death. Other things that you think played a role in the death but were not direct causes" appear in the "other significant conditions" part of the death certificate, Baker explained. "Mr. Floyd's use of fentanyl did not cause the subdual or neck restraint, his heart disease did not cause the subdual or the neck restraint," Baker said. They were items that may have contributed to his death but were not the direct cause, he said.""" # expert testimony: floyd died from neck depression, not fentanyl Summary: George Floyd did not die from a fentanyl overdose; while fentanyl was in his blood, it doesn't appear that he was high on fentanyl at the time of death: Martin Tobin MD, critical care pulmonary specialist: Floyd died from low oxygen: "Mr. Floyd died from a low level of oxygen, and this caused damage to his brain that we see. And it also caused a PEA [pulseless electrical activity] arrhythmia that caused his heart to stop." https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1032438770340999358/unknown.png """Because Floyd continued to speak for the first nearly five minutes of being held down, Tobin said, "We know that his oxygen levels were enough to keep his brain alive" during that time. But shortly after the five-minute mark, Tobin said, Floyd's leg can be seen moving, seemingly involuntarily. "That is when he has suffered brain injury," the doctor said. "We can tell from the movement of his leg that the level of oxygen in his brain has caused what we call a myoclonic seizure-type activity." Clinicians see patients suddenly extend or straighten their legs because of low oxygen levels affecting their brain, Tobin added. After Floyd's condition reached that point, Tobin said, Chauvin's movement of his leg away from Floyd's neck and airway would not have much of an impact. Tobin said he's aware that Floyd had preexisting medical conditions. But he concluded, "A healthy person subjected to what Mr. Floyd was subjected to would have died."""" Martin Tobin MD, critical care pulmonary specialist: Floyd did not die from fentanyl; his breathing was too fast and he never entered a coma: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1032438385056415844/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1032439582324686878/unknown.png """Tobin says that using his clinical skills, he was able to calculate Floyd's respiratory rate at 22, noting that in a roughly 19-second span of a police video, Floyd is seen breathing between seven and eight times as he lies on the street. "It's extremely significant," the doctor said, "because one of the things in this case is the question of fentanyl." If that opiate was affecting Floyd, he said, it would have dropped his respiratory rate to around 10 breaths. Asked by the prosecutor if he saw a depressed breathing rate in Floyd, Tobin replied, "No. It's normal."""" #####c ##### # puerto rican statehood #####o # 2020 polling Data For Progress, 2020 Oct 19 to Nov 1, n=527 likely voters: first choice: 44% statehood, 18% enhanced commonwealth, 17% current status, 15% independence, 6% sovereign free association; final ranked choice round: statehood 50%, enhanced commonwealth 43% OR statehood 55% sovereign free association 33%: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1021592223923576853/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1130967082868150373/image.png # 2020 referenda results 2020 Puerto Rican status referendum: 52.5% voted yes for PR to be "admitted immediately to the Union as a State" and 47.5% voted no (+5% for statehood); turnout was 54.7% of active voters: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/935383944499720262/unknown.png "¿Debe Puerto Rico ser admitido inmediatamente dentro de la Unión como un Estado?" Sí No / "Should Puerto Rico be admitted immediately into the Union as a State?" Yes No 2020 Puerto Rican status referendum: turnout was 73.2% of effective voters (line 3), which subtracts nonvoters who did not vote in the previous election (A2) from the number of registered voters (line 1): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/978299252264554506/unknown.png """Dicho resultado de participación se computa conforme al Artículo 10.5 2 (f) de la Ley 58-2020, conocida como Código Electoral de Puerto Rico de 2020, el cual dispone que: “En el renglón agrupado de “Participación Electoral”, se incluirá solamente a los electores activos que figuran votando en el presente evento electoral, y sin tomar en consideración a los electores activos que no votaron en las elecciones generales precedentes. Los electores activos que no votaron en las elecciones generales precedentes serán aquellos codificados por la Comisión como “A-2” en el Registro General de Electores.”""" #####c ##### # fake quotes: why should we bother to reply to kautsky? #####o # summary SDL 2022: That "anti-debate" quote from Lenin about Kautsky as "traitor to the working class" is fake: Google search of Marxists.org: does not appear: Google search of real Lenin quote: just 23 references, none on social media: Google Books search: appears only in George Will and Richard Mitchell books: # actual lenin quotes Lenin 1918: : The Proletarian Revolution and the Renegade Kautsky """Историк Каутский этого не замечает. Историк Каутский никогда не слыхал о том, что всеобщее избирательное право дает иногда мелкобуржуазные, иногда реакционные и контрреволюционные парламенты. Историк-марксист Каутский не слыхал о том, что одно дело — форма выборов, форма демократии, другое дело — классовое содержание данного учреждения. Этот вопрос о классовом содержании Учредительного собрания прямо поставлен и разрешен в моих тезисах. Возможно, что мое разрешение неверно. Ничто не было бы для нас так желательно, как марксистская критика нашего анализа со стороны. Вместо того, чтобы писать совсем глупые фразы (их много у Каутского) насчет того, будто кто-то мешает критике большевизма, Каутскому следовало бы приступить к такой критике. Но в том-то и дело, что критики у него нет. Он даже и не ставит вопроса о классовом анализе Советов, с одной стороны, и Учредительного собрания, с другой. И поэтому нет возможности спорить, дискутировать с Каутским, а остается только показать читателю, почему нельзя Каутского назвать иначе, как ренегатом.""""""Kautsky the historian fails to see this. Kautsky the historian has never heard that universal suffrage sometimes produces petty-bourgeois, sometimes reactionary and counter-revolutionary parliaments. Kautsky the Marxist historian has never heard that the form of elections, the form of democracy, is one thing, and the class content of the given institution is another. This question of the class content of the Constituent Assembly is directly put and answered in my theses. Perhaps my answer is wrong. Nothing would have been more welcome to us than a Marxist criticism of our analysis by an outsider. Instead of writing utterly silly phrases (of which there are plenty in Kautsky’s book) about somebody preventing criticism of Bolshevism, he ought to have set out to make such a criticism. But the point is that he offers no criticism. He does not even raise the question of a class analysis of the Soviets on the one hand, and of the Constituent Assembly on the other. It is therefore impossible to argue, to debate with Kautsky. All we can do is demonstrate to the reader why Kautsky cannot be called anything else but a renegade.""" # george will: popularizer George Will 1986: *The Morning After*: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1069036021737590874/image.png """ACADEMIC THOUGHT POLICE: Charley McCaffrey, a cop in the ranks of the thought police, saw his duty and did not flinch. McCaffrey, president of Califor- nia's University of the Pacific, saw what William Bennett said and withdrew an invitation for Bennett to receive an honorary degree. "We simply cannot honor a person holding these views." [....] McCaffrey's approach to controversy is not new. "Why should we bother to reply to Kautsky?" Lenin asked. "He would reply to us, and we would have to reply to his reply. There's no end to that. It will be quite enough for us to announce that Kautsky is a traitor to the working class, and everyone will understand everything." McCaffrey should know that everyone understands him. 1985 February 21""" Congressional Record 1985; Oxley 1985: """THE INDIGNATION INDUSTRY HON. MICHAEL G. OXLEY OF OHIO IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Wednesday, February 27, 1985 e Mr. OXLEY. Mr. Speaker, I was struck by the clarity and truthfulness of the recent article by George F. Will that appeared in the Washington Post on Thursday, February 21, 1985. Mr. Will points out much better than I the obvious inconsistency followed by the president of the University of the Pacific. It appears that Mr. Stanley McCaffrey, while talking platitudes about academic freedom and opportunity in the field of higher education, at the same time denies thP new Secretary of Education the opportunity to speak at this institution. [....] McCaffrey's approach to controversy is not new. "Why should we bother to reply to Kautsky?" Lenin asked. "He would reply to us, and we would have to reply to his reply. There's no end to that. It will be quite enough for us to announce that Kautsky is a traitor to the working class, and everyone will understand everything." McCaflrey should know that everyone understands him .""" # richard mitchell: originator Richard Mitchell: *The Underground Grammarian*, Volume Three, Number Eight (November 1979): "The Answering of Kautski": """Why should we bother to reply to Kautski? He would reply to us, and we would have to reply to his reply. There’s no end to that. It will be quite enough for us to announce that Kautski is a traitor to the working class, and everyone will understand everything. - Nikolai Lenin""""""“Most of the people,” Lenin wrote, not in public, of course, but in a letter, “just aren’t capable of thinking. The best they can do is learn the words.” If that reminds you of those bleating sheep in Animal Farm, try to forget them, and think instead of the lowing herds of pitiable teacher-trainees, many of whom began with good intentions and even with brains, singing for their certificates dull dirges of interpersonal interaction outcomes enhancement and of change-agent skills developed in time-action line. Lenin’s contempt was reserved for the masses. These educationists, pretenders to egalitarianism, hold even their own students in contempt, offering them nothing but words.""" #####c ##### # fake quotes: gramsci capturing the culture #####o # fake quote Tudehope 2017: fake Gramsci quote: """Any country grounded in Judaeo-Christian values can’t be overthrown until those roots are cut … Socialism is precisely the religion that must overwhelm Christianity … in the new order, Socialism will triumph by first capturing the culture via infiltration of schools, universities, churches and the media by transforming the consciousness of society.""" # comparison with fascist liberal conservative ideology MorbiusDevo Griffin 2000: Niskanen 2017: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1094141521609117777/image.png War of ideas: # source texts Gramsci 1971 [translated by Hoare Smith 1971]: does not contain the fake quote: Selections from the Prison Notebooks Gramsci 1996 [translated by Buttigied 1996]: does not contain the fake quote: Gramsci 1916-1920, "Sotto La Mole" column in Avanti! edition in Turin: does not contain the fake quote (Italian), but does contain the subquote "Socialism is precisely the religion that must kill Christianity": Gramsci 1919-1925: L'Ordine Novo: # does Gramsci repeat the same sentiment in "The Formation of The Intellectuals"? No. Gramsci 1971 [translated by Hoare Smith 1971]: Hoare Smith summarize Gramsci as saying that socialists must create their own "organic" (working-class) intellectuals with which to fight for hegemony: Selections from the Prison Notebooks https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079868683880513566/image.png Gramsci 1971 [translated by Hoare Smith 1971]: Gramsci describes how all classes which seek hegemony try to generate their own "organic" intellectuals: Selections from the Prison Notebooks https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079868736393191424/image.png # citing sources Borst 2004: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1077141295258148894/image.png """It was a thorough and total materialism. In 1916, Gramsci remarked that Socialism was precisely the "religion that would overwhelm Christianity." In the New Order, he explained that Socialism would triumph by first "capturing the culture via infiltration of schools, universities, churches and the media by transforming the consciousness of society."""" Warder 1996: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079207523384574042/image.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1079209357155250236/image.png """Radical leftist Antonio Gramsci in May 1916 remarked: "Socialism is precisely the religion that must overwhelm Christianity." In The New Order, Marxist Gramsci explained that Socialism would triumph by first capturing the culture via infiltration of schools, universities, churches and the media by transforming the consciousness of society.30 [....] 30. Dennis Cuddy, Ph.D., The Road to Socialism and the New World Order.""" Cuddy pre-1996: The Road to Socialism and the New World Order ^ TruNews 2007 interview with Cuddy: Grenier 1991: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1077147678703620126/image.png """A deviant from a Leninist (and even Marxist) point of view, Gramsci formulated in his Prison Notebooks the doctrine that those who want to change society must change man’s consciousness, and that in order to accomplish this they must first control the institutions by which that consciousness is formed: schools, universities, churches, and, perhaps above all, art and the communications industry. It is these institutions that shape and articulate “public opinion,” the limits of which few politicians can violate with impunity. Culture, Gramsci felt, is not simply the superstructure of an economic base—the role assigned to it in orthodox Marxism— but is central to a society. His famous battle cry is: capture the culture. Gramscians, of course, would have no chance whatever of “capturing the culture” if it weren’t for the spiritual estrangement of the artistic and intellectual classes. The culture, obligingly, might almost be seen as surrendering to the enemy without need of being captured, and what we are witnessing is certainly far less the result of a plot or conspiracy from outside than of a transformation from within.""" Graham 2002: """Gramsci concluded it was their Christian souls that prevented the Russian people from embracing their Communist revolution. “The civilized world had been thoroughly saturated with Christianity for 2000 years,” Gramsci wrote; and a regime grounded in Judeo- Christian beliefs and values could not be overthrown until those roots were cut.6 If Christianity was the heat shield of capitalism, then, to capture the West, Marxists must first de-Christianize the West. [....] 6. Gerald L. Atkinson, “What Is the Frankfurt School?” August 1, 1999, p. 2. http://www.newtotalitarians.com/FrankfurtSchool.html""" Atkinson 1999: """Gramsci, a young communist who died in one of Mussolini's prisons in 1937 at the age of 46, conjured up the notion of a 'quiet' revolution that could be diffused throughout a culture -- over a period of time -- to destroy it from within. He was the first to suggest that the application of psychology to break the traditions, beliefs, morals, and will of a people could be accomplished quietly and without the possibility of resistance. He deduced that "The civilized world had been thoroughly saturated with Christianity for 2,000 years..." and a culture based on this religion could only be captured from within.""" Duncan 1999: The Master Plan """Whether in politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, the Elite directed almost every act of our daily lives. They pulled the wires, which controlled the public mind, and contrived new ways to constrict and guide the world. They triumphed by capturing the culture via subversion of schools, universities, churches, the media, and other societal and religious institutions.""" #####c ##### # bariatric surgery #####o Adams et al 2023: bariatric patients have substantially lower (0.84x) all-cause mortality than non-bariatric matched patients, but substantially higher suicide mortality (2.4x): #####c ##### # how leaders reacted to nuclear apocalypse #####o Hines 1995: Brezhnev's nuclear exercise: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1076010536279478322/image.png """Danilevich witnessed a military exercise in 1972 at which Soviet General Secretary Brezhnev, Prime Minister Kosygin, and Defense Minister Grechko were presented with the results of a simulated U:S. first strike that killed 80 million Soviet citizens, destroyed 85 percent of the USSR’s industrial capacity,8° and decimated Soviet ground forces and non-strategic aviation.87 Brezhnev was given an actual button and asked to push it to authorize a retaliatory strike. Gen. Danilevich reported that the General Secretary was pale and perspiring and that his hand trembled visibly. He asked Grechko several times for assurances that the button would not set off real missile launches. “Andrei Antonovich,” he repeatedly asked Grechko, “this is definitely an exercise?’®8 After 1972, the political leadership did not participate in even a single military exercise involving nuclear weapons. The General Staff was left entirely on its own to develop scenarios for nuclear war.89 Another example, described by Danilevich, of Soviet aversion to nuclear war occurred in the early 1980s. Cuban leader Fidel Castro pressed the USSR to take a tougher line against the United States, including possible nuclear strikes. The Soviet Union, in response, sent experts to spell out for Castro the ecological consequences for Cuba of nuclear strikes on the United States. Castro, according to the General, recovered from his nuclear fever rather quickly.90""" #####c ##### # the first measured century #####o Caplow Hicks Wattenberg 2001: the 20th century was the first "measured century": """This is a book about social change in the United States during the twentieth century. It relies on statistical trends to tell that awesome story. The twentieth century was the first century that could be measured in a systematic manner. Those who saw it coming included President James A. Garfield who, while still a congressman in 1869, observed in a speech to the U.S. House of Representatives: The developments of statistics are causing history to be rewritten. Till recently, the historian studied nations in the aggregate, and gave us only the story of princes, dynasties, sieges, and battles…. Now, statistical inquiry leads him into the hovels, homes, workshops, mines, fields, prisons, hospitals, and all other places where human nature displays its weakness and its strength. In these explorations he discovers the seeds of national growth and decay, and thus becomes the prophet of his generation. Alas, President Garfield was assassinated in 1881 and did not live to see much beyond the earliest flowering of his prescient observation. As it turned out, we never stopped hearing all about “princes, dynasties, sieges, battles,” as well as the other great historical anecdotes, personalities, and moments of the ensuing years: the Titanic; the Hindenburg; Elvis; Lindbergh; Challenger; December 7, 1941, and June 6, 1944; the Roaring Twenties; Einstein; Madonna; the Zapruder film; O.J.; and Monica. But, as Garfield surmised, we developed a second way of seeing history. During the twentieth century, Americans became the most energetic measurers of social life that ever lived. They measured everything that had been counted before, such as population and the size of the government’s territory and army. And they pioneered the measurement of facets of American life that had never been systematically counted before, such as crime, love, food, fun, religion, and work.""" #####c ##### # congo after colonization #####o # sixteen college graduates in congo Fall 1961: while it is untrue that Congo only had 16 people with college degrees (those were essentially PhD's), its population of 13.5 million had just 4,000 college graduates: """A first attempt at restating the case in something else than simply emotional propaganda terms was made by an American educational missionary, the Rev. John A. Ball, Director of the White Fathers Information Center, in the following communication addressed to the New York Times in January 1961: The American press has repeatedly stated that there are only sixteen college graduates among the Congo's population of 14,000,000. This is simply not true. The 417 native Congolese Catholic priests should certainly be considered as "college graduates" since they have followed the same course of study as is offered in any Catholic seminary. Furthermore, I am personally acquainted with several who have doctorate degrees from recognized universities. Actually, there are over 4,000 Congolese who have the equivalent of an American college education. The nowfamous "sixteen" are men who have university degrees corresponding to post-graduate studies in the United States.'4 It must be emphasized, however, that the figure of 4,000 college-educated Congolese is obviously cumulative. It nevertheless presents an order of magnitude that is at variance with the magical figure of "sixteen college graduates" that no doubt will be foreveremembered asthe sum total of Belgium's educational efforts in the center of Africa. In actual fact, even that figure was inaccurate by July 1960, for another fourteen graduates joined the 1959 class to form a total of thirty such graduates - equivalent to American graduate degrees.""" #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # Nazism: death toll estimates and hard evidence for crimes against humanity # # #####o ##### # # nazi death toll estimates # #####o ##### # overall estimates #####o # full time period The Nazis *intentionally* killed 11.5-20.5 million noncombatants (Holocaust [5-6m Jews], Porajmos [0.1-0.5m Romani], "racial eugenics" [0.2-0.3m "sick" under Aktion T4, 5000-15000 "homosexuals"], political repressions [0.1-0.2m leftists, 7000 Spanish Republicans], religious persecution [0.1-0.2m Freemasons, 1000-5000 Jehovah's Witnesses], Generalplan Ost [1.8-3m non-Jewish Poles, 2.8-3.5m Soviet POWs, 1-6m Soviet civilians], occupation of Southeastern Europe [0.3m-0.6m Serbs, 20000-25000 Slovenes], etc.) [5+0.1+0.2+0.005+0.1+0.007+0.1+0.001+1.8+2.8+1+0.3+0.02 = 11.43, 6+0.5+0.3+0.015+0.2+0.007+0.2+0.005+3.0+3.5+6+0.6+0.025 = 20.35]. The Nazis were in power for 12 years (1933-1945) in a nation of 80 million people. This represents about 12 x 80 = 960 million person-years. **The Nazis intentionally killed between 11.5/12 = 0.958 and 20.5/12 = 1.708 million noncombatants per year** and **between 11.5/80/12 = 0.0120 and 20.5/80/12 = 0.0214 noncombatants per person-year.** # scope of nazi deaths: overall Wheatcroft 1996: estimates of the scale many (but not all) of Nazi German mass killings: 1.6m in concentration and 2.6-3.5m in death camps, 0.5m in ghettos, 0.7m by SS death squads, 0.23m in death marches, 3m Soviet POWs killed; total 8.6-9.5m (number in paper is inflated by ~2m by high Auschwitz estimate): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/854130309740888084/unknown.png # scope of nazi deaths: jewish people Hilberg 2003: ~5.1 million deaths, 0.8 million by privation and ghettoization; 1.4 million by shooting; and 2.9 million by deathcamps: Vol1 Vol2 Vol3 Vol3 Vol3 https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/994800270863253554/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/994800279721619526/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/994800286688362606/unknown.png 1000k at Auschwitz, 800k at Treblinka, 435k at Belzec, 150k at Sobibor, 150k at Chelmno [Kulmhof], 50k at Majdanek [Lublin], 2515k outside camps """Any assessment based on additions must reflect the origins and meanings of the numbers found in wartime documents. The large majority of these figures stems from an actual count of die victims. By and large, the numbers fall into three categories: deaths as result of (1) privation, principally hunger and disease in ghettos, (2) shootings, and (3) deportations to death camps. This division corresponds to a broad jurisdictional segmentation in the bureaucracy itself.""""""Polish Jewry as a whole lost more than 500,000 people in the ghettos, well over 700,000 in shootings, and up to 1,700,000 in camps. Some who sought sanctuary in the Soviet Union, but who died there of privation, were victims as well.""""""The following recapitulation of the European-wide Jewish toll includes three tables. Table B-l is a breakdown by cause, Table B-2 by country, and Table B-3 by year.""" 5.4 million, Timothy Snyder (PhD historian, author of Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin) """Overall, the Germans, with much local assistance, deliberately murdered about 5.4 million Jews, roughly 2.6 million by shooting and 2.8 million by gassing (about a million at Auschwitz, 780,863 at Treblinka, 434,508 at Bełzec, about 180,000 at Sobibór, 150,000 at Chełmno, 59,000 at Majdanek, and many of the rest in gas vans in occupied Serbia and the occupied Soviet Union). A few hundred thousand more Jews died during deportations to ghettos or of hunger or disease in ghettos. Another 300,000 Jews were murdered by Germany’s ally Romania. Most Holocaust victims had been Polish or Soviet citizens before the war (3.2 million and 1 million respectively). The Germans also killed more than a hundred thousand Roma.""" ^ see also: Mao: Benz 1999: 5.29-6.2 million: The Holocaust: A German Historian Examines the Genocide """The number of victims—and with certainty the following represent the minimum number in each case—cannot express that adequately. Numbers are just too abstract. However they must be stated in order to make clear the dimension of the genocide: 165,000 Jews from Germany, 65,000 from Austria, 32,000 from France and Belgium, more than 100,000 from the Netherlands, 60,000 from Greece, the same number from Yugoslavia, more than 140,000 from Czechoslovakia, half a million from Hungary, 2.2 million from the Soviet Union, and 2.7 million from Poland. To these numbers must be added all those killed in the pogroms and massacres in Romania and Transitrien (over 200,000) and the deported and murdered Jews from Albania and Norway, Denmark and Italy, from Luxembourg and Bulgaria.""" Benz 1991: 5.29-6.2 million: Dimension des Völkermords: Die Zahl der jüdischen Opfer des Nationalsozialismus """In der Gesamtbilanz ergibt das ein Minimum von 5,29 Millionen und ein Maximum von knapp über sechs Millionen. Um die Größenordnung auch der Abweichung bei den Schätzungen zu verdeutlichen, sind im folgenden die Zahlen der in den Vernichtungslagern auf polnischem Territorium und der vor allem auf sowjetischem Gebiet von den Einsatzgruppen ermordeten Juden ohne Berücksichtigung ihrer nationalen Herkunft aufgeführt: Der ersten Welle der Massenerschießungen (Sommer 1941 bis Frühjahr 1942) durch die Einsatzgruppen fielen 535000 jüdische Menschen zum Opfer. Diese Zahl stützt sich allein auf die Berichterstattung der Einsatzgruppen selbst; die Opfer des Massakers von Babi Jar bei Kiew mit 33771 ebenfalls dokumentarisch belegten Opfern und anderer Mordexzesse sind darin noch nicht enthalten.44 In den Vernichtungslagern auf polnischem Territorium sind fast drei Millionen Juden durch Giftgas ermordet worden, nämlich in Chelmno (Ende 1941 bis Mai 1942 und September 1942 bis März 1943) 152000, in Belzec (März 1942 bis Anfang 1943) 600000, in Sobibór (Mai/Juni 1942, Oktober bis Dezember 1942, März bis August 1943) 250000, in Auschwitz-Birkenau (September 1941, Januar 1942 bis November 1944) 1000 000, Treblinka (Juli 1942 bis August 1943) 900 000 und Majdanek 60 000 bis 80 000.45 Diese Zahlenangaben sind vor allem durch das Zusammenwirken von Historikern und Juristen zustandegekommen, durch personenund tatbezogene Recherchen für die großen Verfahren vor den Schwurgerichten in Bonn (Chelmno), Düsseldorf (Sobibór, Treblinka, Majdanek), Frankfurt (Auschwitz), durch die Ermittlungsbehörden und durch die Berechnungen sachverständiger Historiker, an deren erster Stelle Wolfgang Scheffler zu nennen ist, dem die wesentlichen heute gültigen Zahlenangaben für die Vernichtungslager zu danken sind.""" #####c ##### # comparisons to Stalin's death toll #####o # snyder Snyder 2011: [liberal historian of Eastern European atrocities; wrote a whole triology, "Bloodlands", on the subject]: """Today, after two decades of access to Eastern European archives, and thanks to the work of German, Russian, Israeli, and other scholars, we can resolve the question of numbers. The total number of noncombatants killed by the Germans—about 11 million—is roughly what we had thought. The total number of civilians killed by the Soviets, however, is considerably less than we had believed. We know now that the Germans killed more people than the Soviets did.""" # wheatcroft Steven Wheatcroft 1996: [liberal historian of Soviet history]: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1091958385701834832/image.png """The nature of Soviet repression and mass killing was clearly far more complex than normally assumed. Mass purposive killings in terms of executions were probably in the order of one million and probably as large as the total number of recorded deaths in the Gulag. In this narrowest category of purposefully caused deaths, the situation is exactly the opposite to that generally accepted. Hitler caused the murder of at least 5 million innocent people largely, it would appear, because he did not like Jews and communists. Stalin by contrast can be charged with causing the purposive death of something in the order of a million people. Furthermore the purposive deaths caused by Hitler fit more closely into the category of 'murder', while those caused by Stalin fit more closely the category of 'execution'. Stalin undoubtedly caused many innocent people to be executed, but it seems likely that he thought many of them guilty of crimes against the state and felt that the execution of others would act as a deterent to the guilty. He signed the papers and insisted on documentation. Hitler, by contrast, wanted to be rid of the Jews and communists simply because they were Jews and communists. He was not concerned about making any pretence at legality. He was careful not to sign anything on this matter and was equally insistent on no documentation. It is only when we get into the broader categories of causing death by criminal neglect and ruthlessness that Stalin probably74 exceeds Hitler, but here we have to remember that the USSR was much larger than Germany and that death rates in the best of times had always been significantly higher in Russia than in Germany.""" #####c ##### # anti-handicapped killings / euthanasia / racial hygeine #####o # todo another possible source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aktion_T4#Number_of_euthanasia_victims Klee 1983: Euthanasie im NS-Staat. Die Vernichtung lebensunwerten Lebens [Euthanasia in the NS State: The Destruction of Life Unworthy of Life] Klee 1985: Dokumente zur "Euthanasie" Lifton 1986 or Lifton 2000: """Of the number of people killed in the T4 and the 14ft 3 projects, the following statistics are usually given: adult mental patients from institutions, 80,000 to 100,000; children in institutions, 5,000; special action against Jews in institutions, 1,000; concentration-camp inmates transported to killing centers (14D3), 20,000 (Klee estimated that at the end of 1941, some 93,521 “beds” had been emptied for other uses [70,000 patients gassed, plus over 20,000 dead through starvation and medication] — in other words approximately one-third of the places for the mentally ill.)27 But these figures may well be too low; twice these numbers of people may have perished. The fact is that we do not know and shall probably never know. Elements of deception, imposed chaos, and the destruction of many records make anything like an accurate estimate impossible. The same is true concerning the total number of people murdered at specific killing centers. Hartheim victims of both ordinary “euthanasia” and 14ft13 are variously estimated from 20,000 (by Dr. Georg Renno, Lonauer’s successor as director), to 400,000 (by Franz Ziereis, the former commandant of Mauthausen, on his deathbed); 30,000 is believed to be the best estimate.28 While these figures may seem unimpressive when placed next to the millions killed in the Final Solution, they represent the murder of shockingly large numbers of people — all in places characterized as hospitals.""""""27. Klee, “Euthanasie” [6], pp. 340-41, 355; Lothar Gruchmann, “Euthanasie und Justiz im Dritten Reich,” Vierteljahrshefte fiir Zeitgeschichte 20 (1972):244.""" Bauer Wetzer 2019: todo: """Starting in 1939, more than 200,000 people with mental and physical disabilities were systematically killed in gas chambers, by lethal injection, starvation and with other cruel means under the “Aktion T4” program. Although these o?cial policies were only carried out within the Reich, people with disabilities also fell victim to the Nazi ideology of “life unworthy of life” in parts of occupied Poland and the Soviet Union. ?ere, disabled patients were murdered by mass shooting, in gas vans, by explosives and in other ways by the SS and police forces, not by the physicians, caretakers, and T4 administrators who implemented the “Euthanasia” Program itself.""" Piaśnica: Bryant 2005: Confronting the "Good Death": Nazi Euthanasia on Trial, 1945-1953 """The incomplete historical record makes a death toll for the children’saction impossible to ascertain with certainty. The Frankfurt prosecutor’s in-dictment of Werner Heyde, Gerhard Bohne, and Hans Hefelmann in May 1962 estimated a figure of around 5,000.""" Bryant 2005: """By August 1941, the death toll of mentally disabled patients murdered inT-4’s killing centers had reached 70,273. These figures are culled not fromofficial T-4 records, many of which were destroyed before the end of the war,but from figures compiled by a T-4 statistician discovered at the Hartheiminstitution after the war. The figures document the number of those killed ateach of the six killing centers for each calendar month beginning in January1940 and ending in August 1941. As Henry Friedlander points out, however,German prosecutors after the war believed these figures underestimated thenumber of the dead. Based on evidence they had collected, they argued the T-4 statistician had, among other errors, miscounted the patients euthanized atHartheim and Sonnenstein. They arrived at a conservative estimate of 80,000patients killed until the official “end” of the operation in August 1941.55""" Bryant 2005: """Prisoners selected under 14f13 were subsequently transported to the eu-thanasia centers Bernburg, Hartheim, and Sonnenstein, which were all ac-tively involved in killing the 14f13 prisoners. Prior to the stoppage ordered byHitler on August 24, 1941, these institutions gassed both the mentally handi-capped and 14f13 selectees; after August 24, the handicapped were murderedby overdoses of medication, whereas the 14f13 selectees continued to die inthe gas chambers. Five hundred seventy-five prisoners were murdered atSonnenstein alone. By the time Himmler ordered the end of 14f13 in 1943(on the grounds that too many prisoners capable of work were being liqui-dated), the operation had claimed the lives of between 10,000 and 20,000prisoners.72""" Bryant 2005: """In their work within Operation Reinhard, the T-4 killers must have sur-passed their masters’ expectations. In two years of operation (1941–1942 andagain in 1944), Chelmno murdered 152,000 people; in one year (1942), theBelzec camp killed 600,000. The Sobibor and Treblinka camps also required asingle year (1942–1943) to murder 250,000 and 900,000 people, respectively.By the time Operation Reinhard came to an end in November 1943, it hadtaken almost 2 million lives. Of the nearly 2 million people sent to Chelmno,Belzec, Sobibor, and Treblinka, only eighty-seven survived. Although Auschwitzhas become the symbol par excellence of Nazi depravity, lethality among thefour Polish death camps was actually much higher. Gerald Reitlinger has esti-mated that approximately 700,000 of the 851,200 Jews deported to Auschwitzwere gassed at Birkenau (a mortality rate just over 82 percent); mortality ratesat the four Polish killing centers, by contrast, were almost 100 percent. Forefficiency in murder, the Nazis could not have made a better choice than theeuthanasia killers.79""" Bryant 2005: """The prosecution of Nazi criminals was enmeshed in this complex skein ofgeopolitics and the quest for revived national power. Like philosemitism andanti-Communism, the abolition of trials of Nazi-era perpetrators became partof a strategy to regain German sovereignty. One gambit in this strategy was theBundestag’s Christmas Amnesty of 1949, which freed Nazi defendants sen-tenced to jail terms of six months or less—a decree that affected nearly 700,000West Germans. On January 1, 1951, it was the Americans’ turn: the U.S.occupation authorities amnestied Nazi defendants convicted at Nurembergwith sentences of less than fifteen years. This decree released convicted indus-trialists like Alfried Krupp and Fritz ter Meer, co-founder of the I. G. Farbenslave labor concern at Auschwitz. By February 1951 every industrialist warcriminal had been released.""" Bryant 2005: """The explicit target was to have 70,000 individuals killed. This was based on the calculation that out of each 10,000 Germans, ten needed psychiatric treatment. Of these, five had to be hospitalized and one had to be killed: approximately 60–70,000 altogether.""" Bryant 2005: """Most experts estimate that some 30,000 Germans were killed after August, 1941, so that the total number of victims is around 100,000. Some specific cases stand out. Thus, on August 7, 1943, a?er the bombing raids on Hamburg, 97 women with mental illnesses were transferred to the T4 Hadamar killing center. Even soldiers with mental illnesses were occasionally murdered. The rationale was that hospital beds had to be freed for wounded and bombed out citizens. In July, 1944, Linden entreated “physicians in institutions [to] do everything possible to achieve a reduction of mentally ill” persons in their care.""" Bryant 2005: """While the Reich’s leadership was not uniformly agreed on the “threat” represented by these groups there was, nevertheless, a state-organized program to kill a minimum of 200,000 Roma and Sinti who were de?ned, at least in part, as “racial enemies.” Other groups that were highly stigmatized on strictly racial grounds included people of colour and Slavs.""" Bryant 2005: """This protest, led by the Churches, resulted in Hitler “officially” ending the project on August 24, 1941, after 93,000 people had been killed and 300,000 to 400,000 individuals had been sterilized. In fact, the program continued in secret, with Hitler’s approval, until the last year of the Second World War.""" Ryan Schuchman 2002: Deaf people in Hitler's Europe """According to T4's own internal calculations — the so-called Hartheim Statistics — 70,273 institutionalized mentally and physically disabled persons perished at the six killing centers between January 1940 and August 1941. 33 Yet Hitler's order for the termination of the action did not mean an actual end to the killing. The child euthanasia program continued throughout the so-called euthanasia pause. More significantly, a drive to reinitiate the adult euthanasia program crystallized in the summer of 1942 into a second murder phase, and its perceived lack of coordinated activity led many scholars to label the period — inaccurately — as the era of "wild" euthanasia. Although more decentralized than the initial program, the renewed effort was still carefully choreographed in Berlin. There the Fiihrer Chancellery, the engine which drove the T4 apparatus, continued to select, transport, and process its victims, while local authorities determined the pace of the killing. Employing drug overdose and lethal injection as a more covert means of killing, the murderous machinery of Operation T4 continued to claim victims at several custodial institutions throughout the Reich until the arrival of Allied troops in the spring of 1945. In all, historians estimate that 200,000-250,000 institutionalized mentally and physically disabled persons were murdered under Operation T4 and its corollaries between 1939 and 1945.34""" # total death toll Bundesarchiv 2018: between 1939 and 1945, a total of 300,000 people were killed under the logic of "euthanasia" and racial hygeine; 200,000 in the German Reich and 100,000 in occupied territories: """Zwischen 1939 und 1945 wurden insgesamt ca. 200.000 Frauen, Männer und Kinder aus psychiatrischen Einrichtungen des Deutschen Reichs in mehreren verdeckten Aktionen durch Vergasung, Medikamente oder unzureichende Ernährung ermordet. Hinzu kamen fast 100.000 weitere Morde an Psychiatriepatienten in den besetzten oder annektierten Gebieten. Rund ein Drittel der Patientenmorde im Altreich geschahen im Zuge der sog. T4-Aktion in einer ersten, zentral gelenkten Phase. Dazu wurde durch Mitarbeiter der Kanzlei des Führers und des Reichsministeriums des Innern Ende 1939 in Berlin eine geheime Organisation errichtet , die nach ihrer Adresse in der Tiergartenstraße 4 "T 4" genannt wurde.""""""Between 1939 and 1945 a total of around 200,000 women, men and children from psychiatric institutions in the German Reich were murdered in several covert actions through gassing, medication or inadequate nutrition. In addition, there were almost 100,000 other murders of psychiatric patients in the occupied or annexed territories. Around a third of the murders of patients in the old Reich took place in the course of the so-called T4 action in an initial, centrally controlled phase. For this purpose, a secret organization was set up in Berlin at the end of 1939 by employees of the Chancellery of the Führer and the Reich Ministry of the Interior, which was named "T 4" after its address at Tiergartenstraße 4.""" # child killings Friedlander 1995: at least 5,000 children were killed: The Origins of Nazi Genocide: From Euthanasia to the Final Solution """Because many records of the killings have not survived, it is impossible to calculate the number of children killed in the children's wards during World War II. The best estimate is a total of at least 5,000 murdered children.133"""""""133. GStA Frankfurt, Anklage Heyde, Bonne und Hefelmann, Ks 2/63 (GStA), Js 17/59 (GStA), 22 May 1962, p. 177."""" Proctor 1988: 5000 children were killed in the "first phase" of the German euthanasia program: Racial Hygiene: Medicine Under the Nazis """Altogether, more than 5,000 children were killed in this first phase of the German euthanasia program.43""""""43 Mitscherlich, Alexander, and Fred Mielke. Medizin ohne Menschlichkeit (1949). pp 191, 212""" organization involved: Reich Committee for the Scientific Registration of Serious Hereditary and Congenital Illnesses [Reichsausschufi zur wissenschaftlichen Erfassung von erb- und anlagebedingten schweren Leiden]: Kershaw 2000: between 5,000 and 8,000 children were killed: Hitler 1936-45: Nemesis """Between 5,000 and 8,000 children are estimated to have been put to death, mostly with injections of the barbiturate luminal, under its aegis.163""""""163. Noakes, ‘Bouhler’, 227; Burleigh, Death, 98; Udo Benzenhofer, Der gute Tod? Euthanasie und Sterbehilfe in Geschichte und Gegenwart, Munich, 1999, 114-18. Udo Benzenhéfer, ‘Der Fall “Kind Knauer”’, Deutsches Arzteblatt, 95, Heft 19, 8 May 1998, 54-5, was able to identify the child concerned, which was born on 20 February and died on 25 July 1939. See also Ulf Schmidt, ‘Reassessing the Beginning of the “Euthanasia” Programme’, German History, 17 (1999), 543-50.""" Hudson 2011: merely repeats Kershaw 2000: From small beginnings: the euthanasia of children with disabilities in Nazi Germany # adult killings in action t4 aktion t4: locations locations: Bernburg, Brandenburg, Grafeneck, Hadamar, Hartheim, Miedzyrzecz [Meseritz-Obrawalde], Sonnenstein Bernburg: Brandenburg: Grafeneck: Hadamar: Hartheim: Miedzyrzecz: Sonnenstein: # adult killings in action t4 aktion t4: death toll Iannuzzi 2014: about 80,000 individuals were killed in Aktion T4: Nazi Euthanasia and Action T4: Effects on the Ethical Treatment of Individuals with Disabilities """Action T4 was ended in August of 1941 due to civilian and church skepticism and disapproval. However, during the short few years that the program was in effect, an estimated (although probably significantly higher) 80,000 individuals were murdered. Among those murdered were those with schizophrenia, epilepsy, senile diseases, paralysis, encephalitis, Huntington’s disease, feeblemindedness, and those patients were not of German descent and those who were criminally insane (Friedlander, 1997, p. 110).""" Rotzoll et al 2006: an internal document from 24 August 1941 puts the number of euthanasia victims at 70,273: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/973753083114950656/unknown.png """On August 24, 1941, Hitler put a stop to the gassings within the official framework of the T4 Program. According to an internal statistic from the head office, up to that time 70,273 patients had been killed in the six extermination centers Grafeneck/ Württemberg, Brandenburg/Havel, Hartheim near Linz in Upper Austria, Sonnenstein/Pirna in Saxony, Bernburg/Saale and Hadamar in Hessen.""" Friedlander 1995: one notorious example of eugenic killing, Meseritz-Obrawalde, accumulated 6,991 victims: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1110867331497857044/image.png """A statistician employed by T4 compiled a summary of the numbers of patients killed. In his report, found after the war at Hartheim, he provided monthly figures for each killing center, arriving at a total of 70,273 persons "disinfected." Of these, 35,224 were killed in 1940 and 35,049 in 1941. With 18,269 persons gassed, Hartheim killed the largest number of victims, followed by Sonnenstein with 13,720. But if we combine the 9,839 persons killed at Grafeneck with the 10,072 gassed at the successor institution of Hadamar, we get the even larger total of 19,911. Likewise, combining the 9,772 victims at Brandenburg with the 8,601 at the successor institution of Bernburg creates another large total of i8,373.165 (See table 5.3.) Postwar German prosecutors believed, however, that these figures were too small. Basing their calculations on all available documents and interrogations, they argued that T4 probably distributed the number of patients equally between the killing centers. They counted about 20,000 victims each for Hartheim and Sonnenstein, and also 20,000 each for Brandenburg combined with Bernburg and for Grafeneck combined with Hadamar. This provided a total of 80,000 patients killed, although they believed it probable that the actual figure was even higher.166""" see also Table 5.3 Hartheim Register: famous example with some of the best documentation: Hartheim Register: of ~70,000 patient files in the initial 1940-1941 period, ~30,000 files survived; their names are listed here: # for concentration camps: action 14f13 aktion 14f13 Friedlander 1995: The Origins of Nazi Genocide: From Euthanasia to the Final Solution """From 10,000 to 20,000 persons were killed in Operation 14f13. The number was probably closer to 20,000; those from Mauthausen and Gusen alone numbered almost 5,500.90 Although these numbers might be considered relatively modest — especially if we consider the millions murdered by the Nazis — the SS-T4 collaboration in 14f13 was significant because it formed yet another link between euthanasia and the final solution.""""""90. GStA Frankfurt, Anklage Heyde, Bohne und Hefelmann, Ks 2/63 (GStA), Js 17/59 (GStA), 22 May 1962, p. 679; AMM, 6/15/23. See also Grode, "Sonderbehandlung 14/13," pp. 86-87,116-18, and Dressen, "Euthanasie," pp. 78-80."""" # program for "asocials" and "wild euthanasia": after aktion T4 was officially ended Friedlander 1995: one notorious example of eugenic killing, Meseritz-Obrawalde, accumulated 6,991 victims: The Origins of Nazi Genocide: From Euthanasia to the Final Solution """Meseritz-Obrawalde had 900 patients in 1939, but during the war the institution was filled to capacity with 2,000 patients. The exact number of patients killed will never be known since only a portion of the institutional records survived, but even the most conservative estimate of 6,991 patients killed exceeds more than three times the hospital's maximum occupancy.82 A less conservative but probably more accurate estimate by the postwar German judiciary placed the number of handicapped patients killed at Meseritz-Obrawalde at more than 10,000.83""""""82. StA Hamburg, Verfahren Lensch und Struve, 147 Js 58/67: Gutachten Jozef Radzicki (German translation), p. 56. 83. StA Hamburg, Anklage Lensch und Struve, 147 Js 58/67, 24 Apr. 1973, p. 363; JuNSV, vol. 20, no. 587: LG Munchen I, Urteil 112 Ks 2/64,12 Mar. 1965.""" Friedlander 1995: one notorious example of eugenic killing, Meseritz-Obrawalde, accumulated 6,991 victims: The Origins of Nazi Genocide: From Euthanasia to the Final Solution """The 74 killings thus took place in numerous hospitals throughout the Greater German Reich, but only a small number of hospitals specialized in killing the handicapped. These hospitals became slaughterhouses where, under the guise of normal hospital operations, conditions resembled those in the Nazi concentration camps. One former inmate of the Eichberg hospital, who was transferred from there to several concentration camps, testified after the war that her experiences at Eichberg had been as terrible as her experiences in the camps.75 Yet Eichberg, where 2,722 adult patients died between 1941 and 1945, functioned as only a "minor" killing center of "wild" euthanasia.76""""""76. HHStA, 461/32442/2: StA Frankfurt, Verfahren 4 KLs 15/46, "Aufstellung uber die in der Landesheilanstalt Eichberg, Gemeindebezirk Erbach/Rhg. einschl. des Altersheims Rheinhohe in der Zeit vom i. Januar 1941 bis 31. Marz 1945 verstorbenen Insassen." See also StA Hamburg, Anklage Lensch und Struve, 147 Js 58/67, 24 Apr. 1973, pp. 409-12.""" Lifton, Robert Jay. The Nazi Doctors – Medical Killing and the Psychology of Genocide, Papermac, London, 1990. Harald Jenner, Joachim Klieme, (Hg.), Nationalsozialistische “Euthanasie”-verbrechen und Einrichtungen der Inneren Mission: eine Übersicht. Reutlingen 1997., 284ff Proctor 1988: child killing: citation 43: mitscherlich mielke medizin ohne menschlichkeit pp 191 & 212 table of death locations citation 51 Aly Medizin gegen Unbrauchbare 1985 p 23 // Roll 18 T-1021 National Archives Washington DC Aly 1985: #####c ##### # anti-Polish killings #####o Bömelburg 2003 in Chiari Kochanowski 2003: the Wehrmacht [German army], Selbstschutz [German ethnic paramilitaries], Einsatzgruppen [German paramilitary death squads] killed between [12,000; 16,376; 20,000] people October 25 [two months after invasion] and between [52,794; 60,750] people in the first six months after invasion, mostly Polish "elites", suspected disloyal workers, and handicapped people: Die deutsche Besatzungspolitik in Polen 1939 bis 1945 in Die polnische Heimatarmee """Insgesamt wird die Zahl der von Angehörigen der Wehrmacht, der Einsatzgruppen und des >>Selbstschutzes<< bis zum Ende der Militärverwaltung am 25. Oktober 1939 Ermordeten auf 12 000 bis 20 000 Personen geschätzt.36""""""36 Szymon Datner, Crimes Committed by the Wehrmacht during the September Campaign and the Period of Military Government, in: Polish Western Affairs, 3 (1962), 294-338 (12 000 Ermordete); Madajczyk, Die Okkupationspolitik (wie Anm. 5), Berlin 1987, S. 28 (20 000 Ermordete); Richard Lukas, The Forgotten Holocaust: The Poles under German Occupation, 1939-1945, S. 3 (16 376 Ermordete). Die von der Zentralen Stelle der Justizverwaltungen in Ludwigsburg erstellte Statistik über NS-Verbrechen im Reichsgau Danzig-Westpreußen beziffert 52,794 bis 60,750 Opfer (mit wenigen Ausnahmen im ersten halben Jahr der deutschen Besatzung) und ist abgedruckt bei Dieter Schenk, Hitlers Mann in Danzig. Gauleiter Forster und die NS-Verbrechen in Danzig-Westpreußen, Bonn 2000, S. 293-295. Als Vergleich sei erwähnt, daß Schätzungen zu den Opfer aus den Reihen der deutschen Minderheit von 2000 bis 3841 Personen reichen. Vgl. Karol Marian Pospieszalski, Sprawa 58 000 »Volksdeutschów«. Sprostowanie hitlerowskich oszczerstw w sprawie strat niemieckiej mniejszości w Polsce w ostatnich miesiącach przed wybuchem wojny i w toku kampanii wrześniowej, Poznań 1959 (Documenta Occupationis, 7), S. 38; Peter Aurich [d.i. Peter E. Nasarski], Der deutsch-polnische September 1939. Eine Volksgruppe zwischen den Fronten, 2. Aufl., Wien 1970 [Erstausgabe 1969], S. 10 f. (Einleitung von Richard Breyer, Wolfgang Kohte und Gotthold Rhode).""" #####c ##### # anti-Jewish killings and death camps #####o # comparisons of estimates / summaries of estimates for death camps Stone 2019: used train deportation data to calculate deathcamp tolls at Treblinka 896955, Belzec 515392, Sobibor 125849, and Auschwitz 1081106 (total 2,619,302); missing Chełmno and Majdanek: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/960243775635066910/unknown.png Arad 1987: Roca 2010: comparison of many estimates for each camp: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/961118395108048917/unknown.png TODO # auschwitz: deathcount Zimmerman 2004: academics were uncertain of Auschwitz's precise death toll (estimated between 0.85 million and 3 million) until Piper 1991 (1.08 million): """For decades following World War II the number of Auschwitz murder victims was generally believed to be as high as three million. More conservative estimates had placed the number at one million (Hilberg, 1985, pp 893–894) and as low as 850,000 (Reitlinger, 1961, pp 460–461). In 1991 the number was finally determined to be 1.1 million (Piper, 1991, pp 92, 98).""" Zimmerman 2004: """Fritjof Meyer, a well known European journalist, wrote an article entitled “The number of auschwitz victims: new discoveries from new archival sources” (“Die Zahl der Opfer von Auschwitz: Neue Erkentnisse durch neue Archivfunde”), where he argued that the actual number of Auschwitz murder victims was 500,000. [....] """ Piper 1991 (1996 republish): Nazis killed 1.076-1.086m people at Auschwitz: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1111180560291864581/image.png Estimating the Number of Deportees to and Victims of the Auschwitz-Birkenau Camp; OR Auschwitz : how many perished Jews, Poles, Gypsies Piper 2000: Auschwitz received 1.3 million people and 1.1 million died, including 960k Jews, 74k Poles, 21k Roma, 15k Soviet POWs, and 15k other Europeans [physical copy only xxx, see pp. 230–231] # belzec: death camp death toll Bełżec: Writte 2001: the decrypted Hofle telegram demonstrates that in the year 1942 alone, approximately 435k Jewish people were killed in Bełżec: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565389119115624458/unknown.png """The number for Belzec, in particular, seems on target as the killings in this camp stopped in December. For this reason the figure of 434,508 must be nearly identical with the actual total number. It is considerably lower than most historians have calculated.15 Wolfgang Scheffler, who gave expert opinions on the Reinhardt camps and deportations at numerous German trials of Nazi criminals, is an exception. Scheffler arrived at a minimum figure of 441,442 victims from identified towns and villages, and explained that a precise calculation was not possible because of additional unknown transports.16""" # chelmno [kulmhof]: death camp death toll Chełmno: # sobibor: death camp death toll Sobibor: Writte 2001: the decrypted Hofle telegram demonstrates that in the year 1942 alone, approximately 102.6k Jewish people were killed in Treblinka: """The figure for Sobibor in Hofle's radio telegram is 101,370 victims for 1942 Scheffler's minimum figure of 102,577 for 1942 almost matches the actual number.17""" # treblinka: death camp death toll Treblinka: Writte 2001: the decrypted Hofle telegram demonstrates that in the year 1942 alone, approximately 714k Jewish people were killed in Treblinka: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565389119115624458/unknown.png """In Treblinka 713,555 victims were murdered. The figure 71,355 in Hofle's radio telegram is a typing error or a mistake in the process of decrypting If the figures for Lublin, Belzec and Sobibor are subtracted from the established sum of 1,274,166, the correct number 713,555 for Treblinka remains, the numeral "5" simply got left off Historical research had already reached an approximate number: Yitzhak Arad estimated about 763,000 victims up to die end of April 1943, and gives 32,500 for die period between January and April, i.e , 730,500 for 1942.18 Again there can be no consideration for any unknown transports""" # majdanek [lublin]: death camp death toll Majdanek: Writte 2001: the decrypted Hofle telegram suggests that in the year 1942 alone, approximately 24.7k Jewish people were killed in Majdanek: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565389119115624458/unknown.png Writte 2001: although Majdanek was a concentration camp at first, the numbers listed are almost certainly those killed in the camp: three gas chambers were constructed in October 1942, the numbers align with those of other death camps, and more than half of the year total for those deported to Majdanek were deported in the last half of December 1942 (12.8 of 24.7): """Belzec, Sobibor, and Treblinka were extermination camps, so it is reasonable to assume that the numbers given for "L" are numbers of Jews murdered also it would not make sense to give the numbers Jailed for three camps and make Lublin an exception.""" """Lublin, however, was a regular concentration camp; from October 1942 three gas chambers were used to murder prisoners after selections of diose deemed unable to work. The number culled dunng selections in Majdanek from October onwards is known- their sum is much lower than the figures given in Hofle's radio telegram.25 As the document indicates, the murder of Jews transported to Lublin without being registered at the concentration camp became an integral part of Einsatz Rewhardt from an unspecified date onward Further research, one hopes, will hopefully permit more precise information.""" Kranz 2005: Majdanek had good registrations of death: """Bez względu na to, czy więźniowie obozów koncentracyjnych ginęli wwyniku warunków bytowych, pracy ponad siły, chorób czy też planowej eks-terminacji, ich zgony były ewidencjonowane i liczone przez administracje obo-zów. Przykład KL [Konzentrationslager] Lublin pokazuje, że „rejestracja śmierci” prowadzona była skrupulatnie, aczkolwiek nie ma pewności, czy nie popełniano przy tym po-ważniejszych błędów lub świadomie nie ukrywano pewnych faktów. [Regardless of whether the prisoners of concentration camps died as a result of living conditions, excessive work, diseases or planned extermination, their deaths were recorded and counted by the camp administrations. The example of KL Lublin shows that the "registration of death" was carried out scrupulously, although it is uncertain whether serious mistakes were made or certain facts were not knowingly hidden.]""" # bergen-belsen: concentration camp death toll Bergen-Belsen: # stutthoff: concentration camp death toll Stutthof: #####c #####c ##### # # quick debunks of bad Holocaust denial arguments # #####o ##### # overview #####o # anti-denial resources: websites and blogs Writing project by several anti-denier scholars and well-read experts on the Holocaust with specific responses to denier nonsense: HolocaustControversies: # anti-denial books: zimmerman Zimmerman 1999: Body Disposal at Auschwitz: The End of Holocaust Denial: argues in detail that the deaths at Auschwitz cannot be explained by alternate causes and their body disposal must be explained by holocaust deniers: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1107018372954210404/image.png # anti-denial books: pressac Pressac 1989: Auschwitz: Technique and operation of the gas chambers: A former holocaust revisionist explains why and how Auschwitz killed its victims (though his preferred death toll is 60% of the accepted estimate): # opinion polling: overt Holocaust denial is rare Claims Conference 2018: just 1% of people believe the Holocaust didn't occur; just 9% believe the Holocaust is exaggerated: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/508223952867295233/unknown.png #####c ##### # debunk: "too many bodies" #####o the central office of Auschwitz-Birkenau asserts they could cremate, per day, 340 persons in crematorium 1, 1440 persons in crematorium 2, 1440 persons in crematorium 3, 768 persons in crematorium 4, 768 persons in crematorium 5, which totals to 4756 persons per day, 1735k persons per year, and 4687k persons over Auschwitz-Birkenau's 2.7 years of operation: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642017872838918145/Leisung_der_Krematorien_in_24_Stunden_lt.png According to the Zentralbauleitung letter, given the normal pace of cremation (half an hour for two corpses in one retort), each crematorium could incinerate 768 corpses in 24 hours. However, Sonderkommando prisoners testified that up to 1,500 corpses were burned in 24 hours (three to five within 20 to 30 minutes). the Vrba-Wetzler report (compiled by escapee Slovak Jews) estimates that the crematoria of Auschwitz-Birkenau could handle 6,000 persons per day, 2,190,000 persons per year, and 5,913,000 persons over Auschwitz-Birkenau's 2.7 years of operation: At present there are four crematoria in operation at BIRKENAU, two large ones, I and II, and two smaller ones, III and IV. Those of type I and II consist of 3 parts, i.e.,: (A) the furnace room; (B) the large halls; and (C) the gas chamber. A huge chimney rises from the furnace room around which are grouped nine furnaces, each having four openings. Each opening can take three normal corpses at once and after an hour and a half the bodies are completely burned. This corresponds to a daily capacity of about 2,000 bodies... Crematoria III and IV work on nearly the same principle, but their capacity is only half as large. Thus the total capacity of the four cremating and gassing plants at BIRKENAU amounts to about 6,000 daily. the instructions written by the cremation company: "As soon as the remains of the bodies have fallen from the chamotte grid to the ash collection channel below, they should be pulled forward towards the ash removal door, using the scraper. Here they can be left for a further twenty minutes to be fully consumed . . . In the meantime, further bodies can be introduced one after the other into the chambers." - J.C. Pressac, "Technique & Operation..." page 136 #####c ##### # debunk: holocaust was a psyop because of newspapers #####o # claim: word appearance of "6 million" claim: "6 million" and "Holocaust" were frequently used to prepare people for the "Holocaust lie": # reality: this is pareidolia: random examples "6 million" was frequently used in articles unrelated to Jews. for example, the Library of Congress' newpaper archive documents 22,000 results including "6" and "million" between 1839 and 1930 and just 7 results including "6" and "million" and "Jew" between 1839 and 1930 1912: 5 million Jews "treated as Pariahs" in Russia: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/545909015977132032/unknown.png 1915: 3 million Jews "homeless and starving" in Poland and Galicia: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/545908988944973855/unknown.png 1915: 2 million Jews "have become beggars" in Poland and Galicia: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/545911366578601984/unknown.png 1916: 10 million Jews "in danger of starvation" in west Russia, Galicia, and the Balkans: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/545909822407835649/unknown.png 1918: 3 million Jews "dying of starvation and disease in the war stricken countries" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/567568080629268480/unknown.png 1919: 3 million Jews "starving" in Eastern European war zones https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/546049383783727104/unknown.png 1920: the Poles are "trying to exterminate" 3 million Jews https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/546049206557868032/unknown.png # reality: this is pareidolia: millions of germans Hun War Losses 6,873,410: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/654855385206751232/unknown.png 6 million Germans killed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/654858125001752636/unknown.png 6 million Germans killed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/654858290593005568/unknown.png 6 million Germans killed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/654858442619486249/unknown.png 6 million Germans killed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/654858705384374283/unknown.png 6 million Germans killed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/654859082385326083/unknown.png 6 million Germans killed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/654859294096883722/unknown.png # other old newspaper insanity Scott's Emulsion: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/654859793554604040/unknown.png #####c ##### # debunk: where are the bodies? #####o # photos of mass murder Muehlenkamp 2010: there are hundreds of photographs of mass graves, masses of bodies, or preparations for masses of bodies: here is a famous one, titled "The Last Jew in Vinnitsa": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642018026392256522/0000002039_1_web.png # why bodies are rarer than one might think the Nazis explicitly attempted to hide bodies. the most-often used method was to burn corpses and grind down the bones: #####c ##### # debunk: auschwitz deaths were all typhus! #####o Zimmerman 1999: in 1943 the Nazis installed 56 crematoria capable burning 4756 bodies per day (or 145k per month) despite the entire camp population being just 30,000; the maximum camp population was just 90,000 in summer 1944; over its 4-year lifetime, Auschwitz received 1.3 million prisoners, of whom 1.1 million died; therefore, holocaust deniers need to explain about 1 million extra deaths in a population of 1.3 million people: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864704232221179934/unknown.png Zimmerman 1999: the Auschwitz Death Books record the deaths of 68864 registered prisoners from August 1941-December 1943; just 2060 of these (or 2060/68864=2.9%) were from typhus: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864704129635975168/unknown.png Zimmerman 1999: the Auschwitz Death Books record the deaths of 68864 registered prisoners from August 1941-December 1943; over 25000 of these (or 25000/68864=36%) were from heart conditions and 44000 of these (or 44000/68864=64%) were among prisoners below age 40; neither of these results are plausible unless the camp authorities were forging death certificates, which multiple testimonies confirm: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864704562896306186/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864705369766494229/unknown.png #####c ##### # debunk: leuchter report #####o # lab manager testimony testimony from lab manager James Roth: I don't think the Leuchter results have any meaning. There's nothing in any of our data that says those surfaces were exposed or not. Even after I got off the stand, I didn't know where the samples came from. I didn't know which samples were which. And it was only at lunch that I found out, really, what the case involved. Hindsight being 20/20, the test was not the correct one to have been used for the analysis. He presented us with rock samples anywhere from the size of your thumb up to half the size of your fist. **We broke them up with a hammer so that we could get a sub-sample; we placed it in a flask, add concentrated sulfuric acid.** It undergoes a reaction that produces a red-colored solution. It is the intensity of this red color that we can relate with cyanide concentration. You have to look at what happens to cyanide when it reacts with a wall. Where does it go? How far does it go? **Cyanide is a surface reaction. It's probably not going to penetrate more than 10 microns. Human hair is 100 microns in diameter. Crush this sample up, I have just diluted that sample 10,000; 100,000 times. If you're going to go look for it, you're going to look on the surface only.** There's no reason to go deep, because it's not going to be there. Which was the exposed surface? I didn't even have any idea. **That's like analyzing paint on a wall by analyzing the timber that's behind it.** If they go in with blinders on, they will see what they want to see. What was he really trying to do? What was he trying to prove? #####c ##### # debunk: red cross death toll statistics #####o # summary Romanov 2017: these reports were not published directly by the ICRC, but were actually published by the Bad Arolsen special registry office [Sonderstandesamt Bad Arolsen (SBA)]; the SBA mostly received its information from the International Tracing Service (ITS), which was run by the ICRC from 1955 to 2012 and is dedicated to providing death certificates requested by families of those killed in concentration and death camps with certified death cases [beurkundeten Sterbefälle], meaning cases where the person's death was actually recorded (most death camp killings were unrecorded, many camp records were destroyed, and not all families survived or requested certificates): # confirmation of above from red cross the ICRC confirmed this in 1975 in a letter written by Francoise Perret: "The figures cited by the author of the [Holocaust denial ]booklet are based upon statistics falsely attributed to us, evidently for the purpose of giving them credibility, despite the fact that we never publish information of this kind"; "Unfortunately, our delegates were not able to enter the camps until the very end of the war.": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/863270565191876618/xJCzhbc_d.png the "300,000" figure is referring to an erroneous article written by a Swiss holocaust denier Patterns of Prejudice 1978: the ICRC confirmed this again in 1978 with an official publication decrying "false propaganda": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/863271875710550026/0031322x.png """Consequently the ICRC considers it must make clear the fact that it has never published — or even compiled — statistics of this kind which are being falsely attributed to it. The work of the ICRC is to help war victims, not to count them. In any case, how could its delegates have obtained data for such statistics? They were able to enter only a few concentration camps, and then only in the final days of the war. [....] The same propaganda scheme has recently been making use of other figures, namely the number of deaths recorded by the International Tracing Service on the basis of documents found when the camps were closed. Obviously this number bears no relation — though the authors of the propaganda pretend otherwise — to the total deaths in concentration camps; firstly because a considerable quantity of documentay material was destroyed before the departure of the Nazi administration, and secondly because many deaths were never recorded, such as those which occurred in the extermination camps where records were generally not kept.""" # same language appearing in red cross publications Romanov 2017: a document published by the SBA in 1979 (shown here with additions in English by a holocaust denier) explicitly states that "I am giving you the number of *certified deaths* in the individual concentration camps: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/863283397640060958/1478990797438.png includes 271504 deaths in 13 camps; """Sachstehend teile ich ihnen die Zahlen der beurkundeten Sterbefälle in den einzelnen Konzentrationslagern mit [sp?].""" Romanov 2017: a similar document published by the SBA in 1980 explicitly states that "However, the numbers don't say anything about the actual death cases in the concentration camps": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/863279279949348914/unknown.png includes 273905 deaths in 16 camps; """Die Zahlen sagen jedoch nichts über die tatsächlichen Todesfälle in den Konzentrationslagern aus.""" Romanov 2017: a similar document published by the SBA in 1984 explicitly states that the "certification numbers of the special registry office do not allow any conclusions to be drawn about the actual number of deaths in the concentration camps": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/863274430045880361/scan255B1255D.png includes 282077 deaths in 16 camps and 373468 deaths in total; underlined: """Die Beurkundungszahlen des Sonderstandesamtes laßen keine Rückschlüsse auf die tatsächliche Zahl der Toten in den Konzentrationslagern zu.""" ##### # debunk: red cross visit to auschwitz #####o # summary Romanov 2017: the Red Cross never inspected any death camps (including Auschwitz, Treblinka, Belzec, Sobibor, Chelmno): Romanov 2017: the US delegation of the Red Cross wrote in 1943 that "it is unfortunately extremely difficult for the ICRCC to help the Jewish population in Germany and the occupied countries" and that it could not access "concentration camps" and could not "check on the distribution of relief supplies" because "the German authorities do not consider the civilians who are arrested in occupied countries [...] as civilian internees, thereby excluding them from the application [...] of the Geneva Convention": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/863259289179521034/uiug.30112039810327-seq_283.jpg https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/863259280768237660/uiug.30112039810327-seq_284.jpg # what actually happened: an "inspection" of a forced-labor camp where no prisoners could be seen Metzner 2015: the ICRC "visit" by Maurice Rossel in 1944 was to the Auschwitz I concentration camp (about 1 kilometer way from the Auschwitz II Birkenau death camp) he was merely allowed to talk to the officers and was not even allowed within the camp: """Entretien avec le Commandant : Comme à Oranienburg et à Ravensbrück, les officiers sont ici à la fois aimables et réticents. Chaque mot est bien calculé et l’on sent la crainte de laisser échapper le moindre renseignement.""" an interview with Maurice Rossel in 1979 confirms this: """I arrived at that Kommandatur where I was received very correctly by the camp commander. [...] I asked him [...] if it would be possible that we would support the infirmary, that we would visit. [....] He said: "No, these are internees, you have no right to see whatever. But if you would like to send help to the infirmary, or medications, you can do that." [Lanzmann: And what did you see of the camp?] Nothing. Of the camp. I saw barracks. I saw those from where I was. [...] Wooden barracks.""" Metzner 2015: in the same 1944 report, Rossel interviewed a British POW in a camp in Cieszyn [Teschen, about 50km from Auschwitz II Birkenau] who asked if they had heard about the "shower room" where people were "gassed in series": """Spontanément, l’homme de confiance principal britannique de Teschen nous a demandé si nous étions au courant au sujet de la « salle de douches ». Le bruit court en effet qu’il existe au camp une salle de douches très moderne où les détenus seraient gazés en série. [....] L’homme de confiance britannique a, par l’intermédiaire de son Kommando d’Auschwitz, essayé d’obtenir confirmation de ce fait. Ce fut impossible de rien prouver. Les détenus eux-mêmes n’en ont pas parlé. Une fois de plus, en sortant d’Auschwitz nous avons l’impression que le mystère reste bien gardé.""" """Spontaneously, the British main man of confidence in Teschen asked us if we knew about the 'shower room'. It is rumored that there is a very modern shower room in the camp, where the detainees would be gassed in series. The British man of confidence, through his Auschwitz Kommando, tried to obtain confirmation of this fact. It was impossible to prove anything. The protective custody prisoners themselves have not talked about it. Once again, coming out of Auschwitz we have the impression that the mystery remains well guarded.""" # what actually happened: theresienstadt the ICRC *was* allowed to visit Theresienstadt ghetto -- but a potemkin village was constructed to hide its true nature: #####c ##### # debunk: world almanac jewish population figures before-after #####o # claim claim: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642018152305393686/proxy.png # reality: all estimates were made on projections until 1949 none of the almanac estimates before 1949 were based on new data. the almanac's revised estimate for population change 1939 to 1949 is -5,376,520: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/566326914998992896/unknown.png """The difference between the 1938 and 1948 figures is thus 4,481,491. In 1949, however, the World Almanac gives a revised 1939 population of 16,643,120 giving a difference of between 1938 and 1947 of 5,376,520. Where the extra population between 1938 and 1939 came from is not cited, though one might speculate that it was based upon the Nazi estimates made in 1942 for the Wannsee Conference. Despite the apparent exactness of the numbers listed, the World Almanac warns that all numbers listed are estimates.""""""Deniers consider one of their stronger arguments to be the population of Jews before and after the Holocaust. They claim that the 1940 World Almanac gives the world Jewish population as 15,319,359, while the 1949 World Almanac gives the world Jewish population as 15,713,638. In their view this makes it impossible that 6 million Jews died, even given an extremely high birth rate. They therefore claim that either the figures are wrong, or the Holocaust, meaning the deliberate extermination of millions of Jews, cannot have happened.""""""In addition, rather than using more accurate census figures and other records, Holocaust deniers rely on a popular compendium whose methodology of assessment is unknown, and whose estimates have varied significantly. For example, the 1982 World Almanac gives the world Jewish population as 14,318,000, while the 1990 World Almanac gives the world Jewish population as 18,169,000, and the 1996 World Almanac gives the world Jewish population as 13,451,000. Either 3.7 million Jews appeared unnoticed between 1982 and 1990, and then 4.5 million Jews disappeared equally unnoticed between 1990 and 1996, or the World Almanac is not a particularly reliable source for accurate estimates of worldwide Jewish population.""""""This subjectivity, commonly stemming from biases or selectivity of available sources, usually means that Holocaust deniers often ignore the documents produced by the Nazis themselves, who used figures of between 9 and 11 million for the Jewish population of Europe, as evidenced in the notes of the Wannsee Conference. In fact, the Nazis methodically recorded the ongoing reduction of the Jewish population, as in the Korherr Report, which gave the status of the Final Solution through December, 1942: The total number of Jews in the world in 1937 is generally estimated at around 17 million, thereof more than 10 million in Europe... From 1937 to the beginning of 1943 the number of Jews, partially due to the excess mortality of the Jews in Central and Western Europe, partially due to the evacuations especially in the more strongly populated Eastern Territories which are here counted as off-going, should have diminished by an estimated 4 million. It must not be overlooked in this respect that of the deaths of Soviet Russian Jews in the occupied Eastern territories only a part was recorded, whereas deaths in the rest of European Russia and at the front are not included at all.... On the whole European Jewry should since 1933, i.e. in the first decade of National Socialist German power, have lost almost half of its population.""" #####c ##### # debunk: death camps were just concentration camps #####o # claim claim: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/642018210924724234/1512782469813.png # response response: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/641979504541040640/WW2-Holocaust-Europe.png # just noting author bias a little bit this is the book: other books by the author: SS men Franz Hödl and Erich Fuchs were in charge of installing, maintaining, and operating the gas chamber engine at the Sobibor death camp. Fuchs specifically stated that the engine used at Sobibor was a gasoline engine: “We unloaded the motor. It was a heavy Russian petrol [gasoline] engine (presumably from a tank or tractor engine) of at least 200 HP (V-engine, 8 cylinder, water cooled).”[2] Likewise, Hödl also confirmed that there was a gasoline engine at Sobibor: “In the engine room there were indeed two engines. There was a petrol engine, probably from a Russian tank, and a diesel engine. The latter [the diesel engine] was never used, however.”[3] # belzec testimony Belzec: one gasoline: We have no testimony from the SS men who used the engine at Belzec. Kurt Gerstein, the SS officer who visited the camp in August 1942, described the engine as a diesel engine. However, he does not say how he knew what type of engine it was, so his testimony is less than conclusive. However, another eyewitness did see and interact with the engine at Belzec. Rudolf Reder was one of just two Jewish survivors from the 450,000 or more Jews murdered at Belzec. In 1944, Reder made a statement to the Central Commission for Investigation of German Crimes in Poland regarding the engines used at Belzec. He described the engine as a “motor pedzony benzyna [gasoline-powered motor].” Reder also said that he carried 4 to 5 cans of petrol (gas) (kanistry benzyny) every day to the motor room of the gas chambers. Reder used the Polish word for gasoline (benzyny/benzyna) not diesel, which is ‘olej napedowy.’[4] Reder’s testimony indicates that the engine at Belzec was also probably a gasoline engine. # treblinka testimony Treblinka: one gasoline: There is one direct eyewitness who actually used the engine at the Treblinka death camp: Nikolay Shalayev. He was one of the so-called Treblinka “motorists.” He testified: “It was an ordinary, four-cylinder engine which used gasoline and, according to the story of the German machine operator, was of Russian make.”[5] As one of the operators of the engine, his evidence indicates that the engine used at Treblinka might have been a gasoline engine as well. #####c ##### # debunk: no flaming chimneys #####o Romanov 2006 in HolocaustControversies: yes, chimney soot can produce flames -- as arch-denier Carl Mattogno admits: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862076146384371752/unknown.png """In pre-war times, when the average European household was using wood, coke, or coal almost exclusively for home-heating, such cases were so common that the phenomenon was, on occasion, produced intentionally for scientific studies. For instance, in early 1933, such experiments were carried out in a nearly abandoned four-story building in Berlin. A diagram shows that 95 minutes after the ignition of the soot on the first floor one meter above ground level the combustion temperature of the soot in the smokestack reached 1060°C. This is not really surprising, for soot consists of carbon having an ignition temperature of 700°C.""" #####c #####c ##### # # evidence for Nazi crimes against humanity: holocaust, porajmos # #####o ##### # background #####o # terms and abbreviations CC [KL] = concentration camp (CC) [Konzentrationslager (KL)] LC [AL] = labor camp (LC) [Arbeitslager (AL)] # auschwitz: concentration camp, death camp, labor camp Auschwitz contained three camps: Auschwitz I was the main concentration camp, Auschwitz II (Birkenau) was the death camp, and Auschwitz III (Monowitz) was the labor camp: Auschwitz I: Birkenau: Monowitz: # auschwitz: calendar key dates: big events: # auschwitz: maps satelite images of modern locations of Auschwitz I (concentration camp), Auschwitz II Birkenau (death camp), Auschwitz III Monowitz (labor camp) and surrounding Polish towns (Wola, Jedina, Harmeze, Pławy, Rajsko, Oswiecim): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862058558472454154/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862060618265526302/unknown.png aerial photograph of camp complex with major camps highlighted: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/861459974618087434/unknown.png #####c ##### # nazi-authored documents #####o # evidence: hofle telegram sent on 11 January 1943, the decryped Höfle Telegram documents that in the year 1942 alone, 1,274,166 Jewish people arrived at four Nazi deathcamps as a part of Operation Reinhart: 24733 to Majdanek (L), 434508 to Bełżec (B), 101370 to Sobibor (S), 713555 to Treblinka (T): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/859720752063447050/1024px-The_Hoefle_Telegram.png the Telegram also asserts in the 2nd half of December 1942 that 23611 Jewish people were deported to these camps: 12761 to Majdanek (L), 0 to Bełżec (B), 515 to Sobibor (S), 10335 to Treblinka (T) Writte 2001: explains how the Telegram was found in 2000, its English translation, and its significance: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565389119115624458/unknown.png # evidence: koherr report delivered to Goergin in January 1943, the Koherr Report documented 1.274 million Jews "processed" in the camps of the General Government (south Poland) and Warthegau: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/418850379518705675/565894115200335883/unknown.png translation and originals: # evidence limitations: railway record incompleteness Holocaust railway transportation records are notoriously incomplete: -- see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H%C3%B6fle_Telegram for note [a] xxx Writte 2001: deportations listed in the Hofle Telegram line up well with survivor reports: """A transport from the collection camp Kielbasin is documented, starting on December 14, 1942 and arriving on December 15 at Treblinka, allegedly carrying 7,000 Jews to their death. If their arrival at Treblinka actually took place a day or two later (entirely possible as the date is an estimate), the deportation would fit into the "fortnightly report" of the document. On December 17, 1942, a train left Treblinka via Bialystok to Grodno, presumably to return fully laden again. According to survivor testimony, the last train from Kielbasin left for Treblinka on December 20.21 Whereas Treblinka murdered 10,335 victims in the second half of December 1942, for Sobibor only 515 are recorded These Sobibor Jews must be identical with those ascertained by Scheffler, who listed one deportahon to Sobibor from Staw on December 22, 1942. Details on this deportation emerge from die reports of survivors. It has to be stated diat the number 515 accords well with the sources.""" # holocaust in the east: Ukraine: Yad Vashem documents: #####c ##### # auschwitz: aerial photographs #####o # abbreviations and galleries used 60PR = 60th Photo Reconnaissance Squadron of the South African Air Force, used DH.98 Mosquitos 464BG = 464th Bombardment Group of the , used B-24 Liberators 5PG = 5th Photographic Reconnaissance Group of the 15th Air Force, used F-5 Lightnings gallery 3: gallery 4? gallery of some CIA photographs: Dino Brugioni and Robert Poirer 1978: two CIA photoanalysts re-examined and labelled many aerial photographs of Auschwitz in a CIA monograph, including 4 April 1944, 26 June 1944, 25 August 1944, 13 September 1944, 21 December 1944, and 14 January 1945: list of images 1: list of images 2: # 4 April 1944: SAAF # 31 May 1944: one camera, one pass: open-air cremation SAAF -- CIA and YV claim smoke from crematorium 5 31 May 1944: SAAF squadron 60PR sortie 0462 frame 3055 shows the entire camp of Auschwitz-Birkenau: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862473739023286302/unknown.png ^ 31 May 1944: SAAF squadron 60PR sortie 0462 collage compiled from frames 3155-3157: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862181087751831572/unknown.png ^ 31 May 1944: SAAF squadron 60PR sortie 0462 frames over Auschwitz II Birkenau (3155 to 3157): ^ 31 May 1944: SAAF squadron 60PR sortie 0462 all frames (3001 to 5045): # 26 June 1944: 60PR/522 26 June 1944: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/861459974618087434/unknown.png ^ 26 June 1944: no open-air cremation can be seen because the camp received no large deportations before this photo: """John Ball, a Canadian Holocaust denier, argues that an aerial reconnaissance photograph taken by the Allies on June 26, 1944, when the Allies flew over Auschwitz-Birkenau on their way to bombing factory targets, showed no open-air burning pits.[8] This is because the deportation of Hungarian Jews was suspended during this time. The list of transports shows that no trains left Hungary from June 17 to June 24, but were resumed on June 25. The transports took three or four days to get to Auschwitz-Birkenau. Many Hungarian Jews were literally en route to their deaths. In addition, there was no evidence of Hungarian Jews being registered into the camp as slave laborers from June 20 to June 27, 1944, which again proves the suspension of activity.""" # 8 July 1944: open-air cremation zimmerman says open-air USAF # 9 August 1944 ??? # 12 August 1944: open-air cremation ??? # 20 August 1944 ??? # 23 august 1944: two passes, two directions: open-air cremation 23 August 1944: SAAF squadron 60PR sortie 0686 frame 3084 shows the entire camp of Auschwitz-Birkenau, plus enlarged version showing smoke from mass open-air cremation in a pit: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860409063472758814/NCAP-000-000-029-090_Auschwitz-Birkenau_Lesser_Poland_Province_Poland-833x1024.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860421052861513768/NCAP-000-000-029-090_1.png ^ 23 August 1944: SAAF squadron 60PR sortie 0686 collage compiled from frames 3080, 3081, 3082, 3084, 3086: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860757613649854484/unknown.png ^ 23 August 1944: SAAF squadron 60PR sortie 0686 frames over Auschwitz II Birkenau (3080 to 3086 first pass and 4083 to 4089 second pass): ^ 23 August 1944: SAAF squadron 60PR sortie 0686 all frames (3001 to 5038): # 25 august 1944: saaf: one pass, two cameras: no open-air cremation 25 August 1944: SAAF squadron 60PR sortie 0694 frame 4186 shows the entire camp of Auschwitz-Birkenau: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/861450913641791498/4186.png ^ 25 August 1944: SAAF squadron 60PR sortie 0694 frame 4186 collage compiled from frames 4184-4188: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/861455087216623646/unknown.png ^ 25 August 1944: SAAF squadron 60PR sortie 0694 frames over Auschwitz II Birkenau (3181 to 3187 first camera and 4184 to 4188 second camera): ^ 25 August 1944: SAAF squadron 60PR sortie 0694 all frames (3001 to 4216) ^ the two-camera theory appears correct: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/861442235971010580/25Aug44_4186_3185.gif # 8 September 1944 SAAF # 13 September 1944 464BG/4M97 # 29 November 1944 5PG # 21 December 1944: 5PG/15SG/994: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/861428305609883678/unknown.png <-- dismantling of gas chambers photographic evidence # 14 or 15 January 1945 5PG #####c ##### # auschwitz: sonderkommando photographs #####o # summary 1944: in August 1944, a member of the Auschwitz II Birkenau Sonderkommando, a Greek Jew usually called Alex, supported by {Abraham Dragon (also Dragan), Shlomo Dragon (also Szlama Dragan), Alter Feinsilber (also Fajnzylberg) and David Szmulewski}, took at least four photographs of Crematorium 5 [Krema V] and its surroundings; these photos show prisoners dragging naked corpses towards a smoking open-air cremation in a pit: # specific photos photo 280: shows Jewish Sonderkommando prisoners moving bodies into the open-air cremation pit: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860601808618258442/sonder280.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860601818576060436/sonder280_cropped.png photo 281: shows Jewish Sonderkommando prisoners moving bodies into the open-air cremation pit: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860601830635601960/sonder281.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860602209305362445/unknown.png photo 282: shows naked Jewish women before execution in gas chamber: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860602324207796244/sonder282.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860602337578713138/sonder282_cropped.png photo 283: shows a tree, shot too high: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/860602349294977034/sonder283.png ^ alternative versions, taken without the image frames, come from Didi-Huberman 2012: the Sonderkommando photos are authentic: #####c ##### # auschwitz: auschwitz album [jacob album] #####o # summary taken by SS identification service [Erkennungsdienst] officers in May-July 1944, the Auschwitz album contains 56 pages and 193 photographs from inside and around the camp: # specific photos photographs 35 and 36 (among others) show inmates exiting the trains with smoke (?) in the background: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862470100186693642/enlarged_35.jpg https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862470096274194432/enlarged_36.jpg photographs 169 and 172 (among others) show Sonderkommando inmates collecting "loot" to transport to the "Kaneda" storage facility: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862470097637081098/enlarged_169.jpg https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862471657033695272/enlarged_172.jpg ^ almost all photographs are available online from Vad Yashem as an interactive webpage: ^ all photographs are available online from Vad Yashem in album FA268: ^ almost all photographs are available in Google Drive: ^ Auschwitz Album photos were used as fake backgrounds for a film showing a "soccer game in Auschwitz"; although the footage is fake, the soccer field is real: #####c ##### # auschwitz: auschwitz album [bauleitung album] #####o # summary taken in 1942-1943 by Dietrich Kamann, a worker for the central construction management [Zentralbauleitung] of the military branch of the Nazi paramilitary [Waffen-Schutzstaffel, Waffen-SS] and Auschwitz Police [Polizei Auschwitz], the Bauleitung Album contains 386 (?) photographs from inside and around the camp during (and sometimes after) construction of various facilities, including the crematoria: # all photos all photographs are available online from Yad Vashem in album FA157: # specific photos: soot on chimneys, evidence for cremation: crematory 4 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/389 from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 4 [Krema IV] under construction with no soot on either chimney: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864988654811086878/157_389.png 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/390 from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 4 [Krema IV] under construction with no soot on either chimney: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864988846043430962/157_390.png 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/391 from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 4 [Krema IV] under construction with no soot on either chimney: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864990272545882122/157_391.png 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/392 from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 4 [Krema IV] under construction with no soot on either chimney: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864986912402309180/157_392.png 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/398 from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 4 [Krema IV] after construction at the same angle as FA157/392 with clear soot on both chimneys: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864985394596151336/157_398.png # specific photos: soot on chimneys, evidence for cremation: crematory 2 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/387 from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 2 [Krema II] from the east under construction without soot: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864995835736227860/157_387.png 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/393 from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 2 [Krema II] from the north under construction without soot: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864992265344385114/157_393.png 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/394 from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 2 [Krema II] from the west under construction without soot: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864996130407317513/157_394.png 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/395 from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 2 [Krema II] from the south under construction without soot: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864991185147265064/157_395.png 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/358 from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 2 [Krema II] from the south with clear soot on the chimney: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864985144703844372/157_358.png # specific photos: soot on chimneys, evidence for cremation: crematory 3 [no soot picture] 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/396 (inferior: FA157/380) from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 3 [Krema III] under construction without soot: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864995540379107348/157_396.png # specific photos: soot on chimneys, evidence for cremation: crematory 5 [no soot picture] 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/397 from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 5 [Krema V] under construction without soot: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864996852445085766/157_397.png # specific photos: many ovens, evidence for cremation 1943: Yad Vashem photograph FA157/386 from the Bauleitung Album shows Crematory 2 or 3 [Krema II or III] furnace room under construction with 12 oven muffles: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864985960630583316/157_386.png #####c ##### # auschwitz: auschwitz album [hoecker album] #####o collection: todo #####c ##### # auschwitz: auschwitz album [truppenlazarett album] #####o title page: photos: todo #####c ##### # bergen-belsen: photographs #####o 21 April 1945: in photograph BU 4260, Nazi collaborator Fritz Klein stands among victims in the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862482697460383784/unknown.png photographs to do xxx todo: #####c ##### # stutthoff: photographs #####o todo xxx: USHMM photos 85014 and 85015 show a prisoner being led to a row of naked bodies (mislabelled as occuring in Ponary massacre): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864672109757464576/748579.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864672120403001344/748625.png #####c ##### # babi yar: aerial photographs #####o # debunk: no obvious bodies aerial photographs do not demonstrate that no massacre occurred in Babi Yar: # specific photos photographs xxx todo: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/981798391241646080/unknown.png photographs xxx todo: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/981798402474000414/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/981798411516915722/unknown.png #####c ##### # photos todo UNCATEGORIZED TODO XXX ##### # other photographs: UNCATEGORIZED TODO XXX aushcwitz aerial photographs: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Auschwitz_II_aerial_photographs auschwitz albums: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auschwitz-Album#Weitere_Sammlungen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solah%C3%BCtte https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sobibor_perpetrator_album http://holocausto-doc.blogspot.com/2013/06/fotos-do-holocausto-valas-comuns-e-corpos-cadaveres-parte-1.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mendel_Grossman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Kadish https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henryk_Ross https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faye_Schulman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Suchomel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Wolf_(SS_officer) ^ Furnaces holding the remains of burned bodies at the Buchenwald concentration camp near Jena, Germany. (Image credit: U.S. Army Signal Corps/Harry S. Truman Presidential Library & Museum) https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/981798569453420554/unknown.png lots of high res stuff: https://albumwar2.com/ very low res and cropped stuff: https://www.documentingreality.com/forum/f240/wwii-holocaust-babi-yar-massacre-14195/ # einsatzgruppen photographs: UNCATEGORIZED TODO XXX https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einsatzgruppen 1942: unknown author: Einsatzgruppen auxiliaries shoot three men point blank into a pit they themselves dug: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862489858689335357/unknown.png June to September 1941: Men with an unidentified unit execute a group of Soviet civilians kneeling by the side of a mass grave: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862493923641262080/DtwEW5vW4AA4KuO.png ^ June to September 1941: Men with an unidentified unit mass shooting of Jews - probably in Ukraine: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862528781728874496/image-010.png very unknown: https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2004/jan/27/photography.museums #####c ##### # liepaja: movie of massacre of Jewish people ##### # summary 15-17 December 1941: the Einsatzgruppen and Latvian collaborators killed 6000 people from the coastal fishing town of Liepāja [Liepaja, Libau]; victims included about 5000 Jews and 1000 Roma, Latvians, communists, and mentally ill people; of these, about 3000 were killed on the Šķēde [Skede, Skeden, Schkeden, Shkeede] beach # background with maps putative map of the graves resulting from ground penetrating radar (GPR): https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864624430571716628/graves_gpr.png putative map of the graves from the Extraordinary Commission: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864624785689673738/TalaPhoto0001.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864689017832472586/Places-of-execution-of-Jews-in-Shkede.png aerial picture of Skede beach in 2003: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864625425270571028/TalaPhoto0000.png satellite picture of Skede beach in 2021: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864620651574722580/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864626747546664960/unknown.png # movie footage: liepaja massacre [wiener footage] video by Reinhard Wiener [sometimes Richard Wiener], a German Navy [Kriegsmarine] man who was walking around Liepaja at the time, available from Yad Vashem: Juden Execution in Libau 1941: ^ video by Reinhard Wiener from USHMM (requires visit to museum): ^ video by Reinhard Weiner in HD with watermarks by copyright holder: ^ interview about Liepaja with Reinhard Wiener in 1981: # photographs: liepaja massacre [zivcon album] David Zicvon [also Siwzon, Zivcuns, Zwirzon] saved photographs by squad leader [Scharführer] Karl-Emil Strott [also Carl Strott, Carl-Emil Strott]: Yad Vashem photograph 85DO1 (enlarged: 83EO5) shows Jewish children huddling in front of armed collaborators and Schutzpolizei: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864614016901971989/unknown.png Yad Vashem photograph XXXXX shows Jewish people forced to undress in front of fence: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864615302276055080/unknown.png Yad Vashem photographs 1935/24 (enlarged: 85DO9) shows Jewish people huddling in front of armed collaborators on beach: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864613729673150485/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864613737638264862/unknown.png Yad Vashem photograph 85CO9 shows Jewish people huddling near armed collaborators: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864615669987147796/unknown.png Yad Vashem photograph 83EO1 shows Jewish people being forced to undress: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864616871625097237/unknown.png Yad Vashem photograph 1935/16 (enlarged: 4613/627, inferior: FA214/46) shows people undressing before execution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864631668672299018/1935_16.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864631685847711744/liepaja_skede_06.png Yad Vashem photograph 1935/27 (enlarged: 4613/626, inferior: 85DO2) shows Jewish women forced to pose after partially undressing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864617988458938398/1935_27.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864618004133576724/85DO2_.png Yad Vashem photograph FA214/50 shows Jewish women fully undressed before execution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864684695660003328/1428041768_910261008595.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864686581927641108/5c8d26ed45d2a08af423cd66.png Bundesarchiv photograph 183-35199-0001 (or: 162 Bild-02616, 162 Bild-02620, 162 Bild-03259) shows several women stripped naked and mocked: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864695001253150770/7.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864695011231793202/Liepaja_Skede_Beach_3.png Yad Vashem photograph 1935/28 (enlarged: 4613/625) shows Jewish children walking to execution site: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864686855056261130/1935_28.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864686902203514940/4613_625.png Yad Vashem photograph 85DO3 (inferior: FA214/49) shows people on pit ridge before execution from behind: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864687278966177852/85DO3_.png Yad Vashem photograph 1935/10 (enlarged: 4613/629, inferior: 1979/5, FA214/48, 85EO5) shows people on pit ridge before execution from side: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864685646965768222/1935_10.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864685700821417994/4613_629.png Yad Vashem photograph 85EO6 shows a "kicker" walking along the pit ridge after execution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864687874489581568/85EO6_.png Yad Vashem photograph 2725/14 shows Jewish people digging their own graves in the forest before execution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864688390620708864/020154e005c2b4cc3689dc1bfb8f5ec0.png # photographs: liepaja massacre: unknown author todo: """Mass shooting of Jews from Liepāja in Latvia. Most of the approximately 6,000 Jews from Liepāja were murdered in the second half of 1941 - most on 16 and 17 December on a beach north of the city. The killings were carried out by Einsatzgruppe A as well as Latvian auxiliary police. Along the coast a wide grave had been dug. The Jews were lined up in groups of ten on the edge of the tomb; the executioners - two for each victim - were located on the opposite side of the grave. After the killing, the corpses that had not fallen into the grave were kicked down, and the next group was led forward. The course of the killings is documented during a trial at the Landgericht Hannover in 1971 against several of the participants.""" ^ 1941: uncertain wherabouts and photographer, but likely from Liepaja: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/981798668443197490/unknown.png ^ 1941: uncertain wherabouts and photographer, but likely from Liepaja: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862492791624040459/BERLIN58.png #####c ##### # Vinnitsa: photographs [vinnytsia, vinnitsia, vinnitsa] #####o # summary between 1941 and 1943, SS task forces [Einsatzgruppen] executed almost every Jew in Yerusalimka, the Jewish quarter of the town of Vinnytsia: ^ according to Erwin Bingel, the three Vinnytsia massacres killed 34k Jews: 28k in the first two massacres by Nazi Einsatzgruppen and 6k by Ukrainian collaborators: """In the first two massacres, Bingel calculated first twenty-four thousand and then twenty-eight thousand Jews were killed. In the third, Ukrainian militia killings, six thousand were murdered.""" # details Patrick Desbois: on 1941 September 22 the SS and collaborators killed 28,000 Jews and in 1942 killed 10,000 Jews: # specific phtographs: the Last Jew in Vinnytsia 1941, Vinnytsia: photo titled "the Last Jew in Vinnytsia" shows Nazis preparing to shoot a Jewish man, who looks into the camera, into a pit of bodies; photo was taken from a German soldier: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862567512238587954/unknown.png ^ original publication in United Press International from Al Moss: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862505768317747220/unknown.png # specific phtographs 1941, Vinnytsia: several Nazis stand around people before they are stripped naked and killed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862499549355180042/05077.png 1941, Vinnytsia: two Nazis or collaborators stand in front of the bodies they killed: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862499997579739186/unknown.png 1941, Vinnytsia: several dead bodies lay in the streets: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862506873890013184/0000002037_1_web.png #####c ##### # einsatzgruppen photographs: miropol [skrovina album] #####o several pogroms and mass killings executed most of the ~1200 Jews in Miropol: 1941 October: photo shows Ukrainian collaborators killing a Jewish mother and two kids above a pit in a forest: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862557695399952404/UN1777.png ^ 1941 October: photo taken by Slovenian participant in the Wehrmacht and eventual resistance operators Lubomir Skrovina; now archived in Security Services Archive, Czechia; photographer testified that the killers knew their victims and taunted them: #####c ##### # einsatzgruppen photographs: biłgoraj #####o between 1941 and 1945, only 50 of Biłgoraj's Jews survived: A mass grave is prepared to bury the Jews murdered in a Jewish cemetery in the vicinity of Bilgoraj: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862554930368086026/unknown.png todo xxx #####c ##### # einsatzgruppen photographs: lviv [lwów] pogrom #####o Lviv pogroms: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862534082931982336/0.png """During the pogrom in Lwów immediately after the German attack on the Soviet Union in the summer of 1941, a Jewish woman is thrown to the ground and surrounded by her executioners.""" todo xxx #####c ##### # einsatzgruppen photographs: kaunas [kovno] pogrom #####o Kaunas pogrom: """The incident was documented by a German soldier who photographed the event""" -- source: "Zentrale Stelle der Landesjustizverwaltungen, Ludwigsburg; DÖW,Vienna" https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862534549123629067/atGP75x8_zrivRKr_pqXLW4CL0Se3TsZjNUnkvXMU-Fu_QuziAJVKXUJoSlXtSsdRWRl__wEOO6BWYlqLWaH4vN8AvjUtKm3Opkl.png """In an episode during the pogrom in Lithuanian Kaunas, about half a hundred Jewish men were herded together at an automobile workshop, tortured and then murdered with available tools. The photo shows that among the spectators are both women and uniformed German personnel.""" #####c ##### # einsatzgruppen photographs: mizoch [mizocz] shootings [hille album] #####o Mizoch was set up to centralize Jews in part of Western Ukraine; ghetto police sergeant major [Bezirks-Oberwachtmeister] Hille photographed the massacres when it was liquidated: 1942 October 14: USHMM photo 17876 shows Jewish women and children forced to undress before being shot: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862546160764846080/17876.jpg 1942 October 14: USHMM photo 17877 shows naked Jewish women and children waiting in line to be executed by Nazis and Ukrainian collaborators: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862546156495175740/17877.jpg 1942 October 14: USHMM photo 17878 shows a Nazi officer shooting surviving women: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862546157678100500/17878.jpg 1942 October 14: USHMM photo 17879 shows a Nazi officer preparing to shoot the two remaining children: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862546159117795338/17879.jpg #####c ##### # einsatzgruppen photographs: ponary massacres: schroff photos [schroff album] #####o Tomkiewicz: 80k people were executed at Ponary [Paneriai]: 72k Jewish people (many from Vilna [Vilnius] ghetto), 5k Soviet POWs, 1.5-2k Poles, 1-2k Communists were exeucted at the Ponary massacre: 1941 July: Yad Vashem photographs 4613/915 and 4613/916 show one of the six "murder pits", in which Jews are led with bags over their heads by Lithuanian collaborators to their executions: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864662185954115604/4613_915.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864662190442676254/4613_916.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864668259075883008/unknown.png Schroff only took two photographs: """There are two photos in the Yad Vashem archives showing scenes similar to those described by Pflüger, Hamann and Schroff, but apparently taken by someone other than Schroff (though one is captioned as being from Schroff), as Schroff only mentioned two photos in his testimony.""" more Ponary photos? xxx https://holocaustcontroversies.blogspot.com/2017/11/mattogno-on-mass-graves-at-ponary-part-1_25.html # einsatzgruppen photographs: ponary massacres: not schroff Yad Vashem photograph 75FO4 shows many people kneeling with hands on their heads in a Ponary murder pit with armed guards: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864679387375206470/75FO4_.png unknown source photograph shows the same scene but with all people standing: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864678378517954560/Ponary-Lithuania-1941-1944-A-mass-murder-of-Jews-from-Vilna-1.png Yad Vashem photograph 75EO4 shows two Jewish people in Ponary prior to execution: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864679574867935262/75EO4_.png #####c ##### # photographs todo #####o # einsatzgruppen killings: bronna gora todo # einsatzgruppen killings: polonka todo # einsatzgruppen killings: byrdgoszcz todo # einsatzgruppen killings: stanislawow todo #####c ##### # eastern mass killings: bloody wednesday olkusz #####o Yad Vashem photograph FA214/125 shows Jewish bodies lined on the ground after Bloody Sunday: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864686216191410226/214_125.png #####c ##### # photo albums compiled by nazis #####o # warsaw ghetto photographs: stroop report [stroop album] 1943 April 20 to 1943 May 16: Stroop Report: There is no Jewish Ghetto in Warsaw anymore! [Es gibt keinen judischen Wohnbezirk in Warschau mehr!] IPN 2013: Stroop Report: NARA #6003996: Stroop Report: ^ Captured Hehalutz fighters photograph: IPN copy #26: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862940524603244544/unknown.png ^ Warsaw Ghetto boy: NARA copy #17, IPN copy #14: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/862940534603382844/unknown.png #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # reading notes # # #####o Note: This section summarizes several books, some of which I strongly disagree with, and others which have good and bad sections. Unlike other sections, where I mostly try to concentrate evidence I agree with (or refute studies I disagree with), this section is almost entirely a series of raw summaries. ##### # # politics is for power reading notes # #####o # political social media use as a shallow substitute for political activism Hersh 2020: """These common forms of engagement do not obligate participants into long-term relationships. They can be turned off anytime. Even deep hobbies cannot be turned off so readily as politics. If one of those airplane craftsmen in the factory in Sheboygan called it quits or if Clayton was expected to be at a ham radio mountain retreat but bailed out at the last minute, other participants would be disappointed, hurt even. If he didn’t show, they’d call him up and find out where he was. In shallow hobbies, we are emphatically not being relied upon. When people quit Facebook, nobody likely calls them up or sends an email to convey concern or disappointment that they are no longer offering their political hot takes. The relationships are not serious enough that anyone would care to make such a call. That no one is relying on you is a great sign that the activity you are doing is a shallow hobby""" Hersh 2020: """Protests organized by groups with long-term visions, such as labor unions, will tend to be more strategic than cathartic. Even in a protest that feels like merely a cathartic exercise to outsiders, organizers will be weaving through the crowd with clipboards looking to recruit volunteers into more sustained actions. These organizers have a strategy even if participants do not realize it. In contrast, protests hastily organized by a lone citizen who wrote a viral social media post will likely be more cathartic than strategic.""" Hersh 2020: """Social media use, in general, probably operates differently for those committed to organizing than for those who tepidly support the efforts of organizers. For volunteers who are embedded in real-life political communities, social media may reinforce their commitments—they share pictures, reflections, or relevant news for their community. But for hobbyists, social media is a token form of involvement that makes them feel connected to those doing hard work and may replace the desire to actually do the hard work.""" # decline in political activism yielding community organizing Hersh 2020: """The philosopher Aristotle argued that without leisure time, democracy cannot thrive. If a citizen’s entire day is dedicated to labor, no time is left to learn civic skills or actively engage in political debate. [....] The political scientist Robert Putnam revealed another connection between politics and leisure in his 2000 book, Bowling Alone. 3 Putnam’s idea was not that politics affects leisure choices, but the opposite: our leisure choices affect politics. The way we spend our free time affects how we participate in democracy. In a bowling league or at church, we get to know people in our communities. When we stay home and watch TV or watch our laptop screens, we have fewer connections to the community and become unpracticed at the skills necessary for getting things done together. Politics requires leisure; politics affects leisure; leisure affects politics.""" Hersh 2020: """The time-use statistics are about the general US population. What about the behaviors of the politically informed and engaged Americans, that subset of people you are probably part of? The subset of the population that consumes political news every day and cares a lot about politics isn’t particularly active in community life, either. Consider the American National Election Study, the flagship political science survey of American attitudes since the 1940s. Among daily news consumers in 2016, less than 4 percent reported doing any work whatsoever on behalf of a campaign or party that election year. Even among those who reported they were afraid of Donald Trump, only 5 percent reported that they did any work to support their side. Of Americans who consume news every day, most report belonging to zero organizations. Sixty-five percent report that in the last year they have done no work with other people to solve a community problem. Sixty-eight percent say they have attended zero meetings in the last year about a community issue. The population that is informed enough and cares enough about politics to follow the daily news is mostly disengaged from participation in political and community endeavors.""" Hersh 2020: hollow ineffective parties: """If there’s a local political party committee in your area, it probably looks nothing like the organization I just described. In most of the country, the state and local parties are hollow, to use the term of political scientists Sam Rosenfeld and Daniel Schlozman. As another political scientist, Julia Azari, has put it, politics in the United States is defined by the strange combination of strong partisanship but weak party organizations. In many states, the state Democratic and Republican Party offices, let alone the county ones, are barely staffed except during election seasons.""" # community service builds political power Hersh 2020: """The tight relationship between community service and political power is nothing new. It’s obvious to everyone except the political hobbyists. Your community has needs. You meet those needs directly by providing service and indirectly by amassing political power. To amass power in a democracy, you meet the needs of people and show them you care so they will give you their votes and their voices when you call upon them to act. This cause and effect is obvious to the National Rifle Association, which supports local clubs across the country, building community and training local leaders, offering services such as gun-safety classes and insurance. It is also obvious to politically engaged churches on the left and the right. 17 It is obvious to the new crop of Democratic Socialist chapters, such as one in Pennsylvania that hosts all-day childcare events when public schools are closed, free lunches, and runs free car-repair clinics. 18""" Hersh 2020: """The experimental evidence we have in political science suggests it would. When campaigns and parties engage in more personalized, more genuine, more neighborhood-based electioneering, they get more votes. When they leverage personal relationships and social pressure, they get more votes. 3 Local organizers who don’t just show up in the weeks preceding an election but who are in a community longterm are the logical conclusion of the experimental evidence that political scientists have amassed.""""""E.g., Betsy Sinclair, The Social Citizen: Peer Networks and Political Behavior (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2012); Green, Gerber,and Larimer, “Social Pressure and Voter Turnout.”""" # political hobbyism rising: rise in political engagement, decline in political participation Hersh 2020: """Yet, while the proportion of people who say they are interested in elections reached a record high in 2016, the rate at which people report volunteering or participating has sharply declined. In the 1960, 1964, and 1968 election seasons, respectively, 13, 17, and 9 percent of college-educated respondents said they did some work for a campaign or candidate. In the 2012 and 2016 elections, when the collegeeducated population was three times larger, the rate of those saying they worked for a campaign was a third as large as it had been in the 1960s. Only 5 percent reported doing any work in the 2012 or 2016 elections. Asked if they attended any kind of political meeting or rally in the 1960, 1964, and 1968 elections, 11, 24, and 18 percent of college-educated respondents, respectively, said yes. In 2012 and 2016, 8 and 9 percent, respectively, said so. Education may have conferred on the country a growing sophistication in talking about elections or consuming news about elections or proclaiming interest in elections, but not in attending a meeting of a political organization or working on its behalf. 4""" # post-materialism as cause of political hobbyism Hersh 2020: """Left-leaning advocacy organizations that grew up beginning in the 1970s tended to focus on “postmaterialist” issues, issues related to the environment and tolerance. They placed much less emphasis on bread-and-butter economic issues facing the working class, on economic inequality, on job training. When the time came for actions on issues that liberals cared about, such as the environment, the organizations felt hollow. As one John Kerry staffer told the sociologist Dana Fisher in 2004, in reference to national advocacy groups, “None of these organizations can actually produce two bodies … when they need to.” 22 In 2012, when Skocpol, joined by Vanessa Williamson, assessed the growing Tea Party movement, they were struck by the well-organized meetings and volunteers willing to roll up their sleeves and take on all the logistical headaches of running local groups. This felt different from their experience on the left. “Opinionated, educated liberals,” they write, “often have no idea what happens in state legislatures, local government boards, or political party committees. Grassroots Tea Partiers, by contrast, know the rules and procedures for passing bills and advancing regulations in detail—for local, state, and national government.” 23 Tea Party groups were often short-lived local organizations that withered away by the end of the Obama era. For some activists, participation was surely motivated more by short-term hobbyism, news obsession, and conspiracy theories than by a commitment to long-term power. Nevertheless, when the groups were strong, they were committed to the logistics and rules of power acquisition. They got off their couches and into the weeds of bottomup leadership. 24""" Hersh 2020: """A certain detachment from feelings of fear and insecurity is needed to experience politics as a leisure-time activity. While nonwhite Americans, particularly those in the middle and upper classes, can engage in political hobbyism as much as anyone else, research on racial politics suggests some important differences in minority communities that should limit the phenomenon. Namely, no matter how economically or professionally successful, black voters tend to see their own fate, and the fate of their families, as tied to the fate of the racial group as a whole. To a lesser extent this pattern is visible among Latinos as well. 8 The idea of linked fate may be the best explanation for why racial minorities, blacks especially, tend to be unified politically even though they exhibit internal diversity in wealth or religiosity or other traits that are predictive of political divisions among whites. Linked fate also rationalizes political action as a form of self-preservation and self-interest. Supporting the group, empowering the group, also helps empower oneself and one’s family.""" # success story: precinct 206 college democrats Hersh 2020: Drew came to speak to the Dems of North Meck about something specific: starting precinct organizations as affiliated groups with the state Democratic Party. In a competitive area such as North Meck, Drew said, volunteers should focus not on one-off events and independent organizations, but on building sustainable Democratic committees. If folks start these groups within the structure of the Democratic Party, they get resources from the party that they couldn’t otherwise get, such as access to the national Democrats’ voter database and computer system, which the state party pays for and shares with its local affiliates. Plus, a sustained organization gives volunteers time to meet neighbors and form deeper relationships with voters than they otherwise could do from one-off volunteering. Hersh 2020: Many College Democrats and College Republicans clubs, not just at Davidson, are “kind of insular pizza-eating clubs,” Greg says. They host forums, debates, discussions, all on campus, away from the political world around them. And they order pizza. And these are some of the most engaged students on campus. Greg and Drew thought a local precinct organization with students in leadership positions could draw students in a way that existing political organizations could not. Hersh 2020: """At the end of the meetings, the group served tea and cookies. “It helps to have something,” Drew says. “It helps people linger after and socialize.” For some retirees, Precinct 206 has become their primary social network. “This group serves a really important social role in the lives of our members.” People send Drew notes saying they’ve met more friends in this town in the last year than in the previous twenty.""" # success story: voice of westmoreland, vow Hersh 2020: VOW held protests, but only as deliberate tools to recruit other volunteers. Angela comes back to those memories of Wisconsin rallies. “You need to have conversations with people who aren’t already convinced. At rallies, you might think you’re drawing attention, but your snarky signs aren’t going to persuade anyone.” But in an area where liberals were in hiding, lonely at home and in church, demonstrations served the specific purpose of recruitment. Angela and her team would stand in that plaza next to the court, her kids in a carrier and in a stroller, and new allies would approach them, just like how the first small group found Angela in the same plaza. Between the heckling yells from afar of “Build that fucking wall!” a few people would come over and write down their contact information. They would start coming to monthly meetings. The VOW contact list started to grow. Hersh 2020: In Pittsburgh, people her age were organizing in activist groups that were, at the time, largely focused on protests. She joined them a few times, but she had mixed feelings about it. It was good to see people who cared and were excited to be involved. But the focus on protests reminded her too much of what hadn’t worked in Wisconsin. “Constantly calling or standing outside your congressman’s office or the Women’s March, is that long-lasting? They have funny signs, but so what? I saw that in Wisconsin. That stuff doesn’t work.” 2 Hersh 2020: Just as VOW was getting off the ground, an opportunity dropped in their laps. The local congressman, Republican Tim Murphy, who had been in office since 2003, was caught having an affair. 3 Text messages revealed that this antiabortion legislator had asked his extramarital partner to have an abortion. He resigned from office in the fall of 2017. A special election was called. VOW got volunteers to knock on doors in their ultraconservative area on behalf of the Democratic candidate. That candidate, Conor Lamb, won by 755 votes in February 2018. Hersh 2020: The most active volunteers became a community. For the retirees, VOW became a primary social scene. For young families, too. They call the kids running around the meetings the VOW cousins. Community begets good deeds. VOW doesn’t talk about this part, would never brag about it. They take care of their growing community of friends and neighbors. Angela has driven undocumented immigrants in her VOW community to doctors’ appointments. Some are too afraid of being deported if they get pulled over that they won’t drive at all, even to the doctor’s. One woman in the community was about to be evicted from her home, and the group quickly came to her assistance. When the federal government shut down in 2019, the group chipped in for gas cards and diapers to help those not making ends meet. All quietly and behind the scenes. “This is the most powerful thing I’ve ever done,” Angela says about creating VOW. “It’s the thing I feel called to do.” # failure of the arab spring Hersh 2020: """The Arab Spring failed nearly everywhere. The aftermath has been called the Arab Winter, a wake of death, destruction, and capsized rickety boats that carried nowdrowned refugee children. The Arab Spring was atragedy. The movement failed, according to several scholars, because it lacked durable party organizations. In Egypt, for instance, protests in Cairo’s Tahrir Square spurred elections, which was a major victory—after a mere eighteen days of protest, the country’s leader of almost thirty years stepped down. But the secular movement in Tahrir Square had no leaders, no ability to organize, and no capacity to mobilize voters. The liberal energy that spurred change lost the elections to an organized party, the right-wing Muslim Brotherhood, which was eventually forced out of power by a military coup. Activists with an Internet connection could crumble a government but could not build one in its place. 9 To do that, you need a hierarchy of leaders from low-level people willing to knock on thirty-five doors to middle-level organizers to higher-level leaders with a plan. In short, you need an organization. In Egypt, the protesters never had that.""" # against primaries Hersh 2020: """Almost immediately, leaders were disagreeing about the consequences of switching from convention systems to primaries for state and local offices. Robert La Follette, who served as representative, then governor, then senator for Wisconsin from 1885 to 1925, and who was one of the leading proponents of primaries, claimed, “Under a primary election law, men of the highest talent and especial fitness for public life will readily consent to become candidates for public office—men who can scarcely be tempted to stand as candidates under the present system.” 16 Political scientists have measured no noticeable change in the quality of candidates. And to the surprise of reformers, most voters didn’t take any interest in primaries. They would vote in general elections but didn’t care to weigh in on the party nominations. 17 That’s true even today; only a fraction of general-election voters participate in primaries for state and local offices. Critics of primaries were also uneasy that high-profile candidates who hadn’t proven themselves as stewards of a party’s values could swoop in and dominate. In his Pulitzer Prize–winning account of this era, Richard Hofstadter argued that by creating two campaigns (a primary and a general) instead of one, primary reform increased the influence of money and celebrity without many benefits in terms of candidate quality or citizen participation. 18""" # hobbyists choose hobbies like their work Hersh 2020: """Sociologists have found that people who are in fields that they chose on their own (these tend to be higher-status professions) seek catharsis in their hobbies. 6 In a cathartic hobby, you utilize similar skills that you employ in work, except in a lowstakes environment. For example, interviews with surgeons revealed a frequent interest in hobbies such as model ship building. Why would surgeons want to spend their free time working with tiny tools and doing intricate handwork? 7 Because they get to use the skills they are good at but without any pressure. That is the catharsis. Unlike in the operating room, it doesn’t matter if they make a mistake or leave the job half done.""" # comparing shallow political activity and shallow religious affiliation Hersh 2020: See Drescher, Choosing Our Religion, for a discussion of the “community” sought out by the religiously unaffiliated. Hersh 2020: """In shallow religious engagement, as in shallow politics and shallow hobbies, participants are looking for instant gratification, the equivalent of drinking green beer on St. Patrick’s Day as a symbolic gesture toward one’s Irish identity. 9 In religious communities, political organizations, and serious hobby clubs, participants are in it for the delayed gratification that comes from sustained relationships and concrete goals. Reverend Daniel emphasizes that some regular church attendees in her own community say they are spiritual but not religious, and she has no issue with them. 10 Even though they say they aren’t religious, they act as part of a community and serve others. A person who seeks only secular benefits from religious participation— personal growth, moral improvement, opportunities to do good deeds—can find those benefits from joining a church and actively participating in a community. These benefits cannot be realized, goes this critique, through one-off events, solitary sunsets at the beach, or spirituality iPhone apps, which do not place individuals in a real community. 11""" # money in politics: interviewing megadonors Hersh 2020: """In the public’s mind, wealthy donors shell out money to politicians to get something in return, such as business-friendly laws and regulations. But political scientists who have studied campaign donations have not seen much evidence that the typical big-money donors are giving money in return for favorable policy. Lobbyists aside, the typical high-dollar political donor doesn’t have transparent financial motivations. Consider that 98 percent of donors give money to candidates from only one political party. If they wanted to influence those in power, they might instead donate to both sides, the way a lot of big corporations do. 1 Or consider that donors to congressional campaigns are not more likely to give to politicians who are committee chairs, who are on the powerful finance and appropriations committees, who are members of the majority party, or who are longterm incumbents who wield power in Congress. 2 The money doesn’t seem directed to maximize donors’ influence.""" Hersh 2020: """On our survey Schaffner and I asked donors about a hypothetical scenario. We asked half of the donors how likely they would be to give $1,000 to a political party to attend an intimate dinner with a prominent elected leader. In this scenario, a donor gets to support their party plus gets the entertainment value of the dinner. Forty-nine percent of the donors said they were somewhat or very likely to make a contribution with these terms. For the other half of the donors, we modified the language of the hypothetical. We asked them if they’d pay a $1,000 fee to an event planning company to attend the intimate dinner with the politician. In this scenario, a donor gets to have a fun dinner but the money does not serve the party. Nor does it benefit the politician’s campaign in a way that would make the politician feel beholden to the donor. But even here, 38 percent of the donors said they would pay up, which is not much lower than the percent eager to donate to the party. For a sizable chunk of the donor class, it seems as if the motivation is not party boosting, but entertainment. 7""" Hersh 2020: """The hobbyist motivation among wealthy donors is also problematic for a reason that doesn’t have a parallel in the nonprofit world: partisan asymmetry. Unlike Democratic donors, Republican donors typically support politicians whose policy priorities align with a wealthy person’s financial interests. The donors can view donations as an investment. When Schaffner and I asked max-out donors why they made their contribution, many more Republicans than Democrats said that a very or extremely important reason for their gift was that the politician could affect the donor’s own industry (37 percent of Republicans versus 22 percent of Democrats).""" # money in politics: favors crudely negative attacks Hersh 2020: """More concerning, small-dollar donations flow to candidates who make crude, vicious, and provocative appeals. Small donations are commonly solicited online or through email, in messages sent out to thousands, if not millions, of potential supporters. The solicitations lend themselves to scientific investigation about what works and doesn’t work. Campaigns and their consultants test and tweak messages, running experiments on small samples of potential donors and learning which appeals do the best job atattracting donations. Through experimentation, they have learned to taunt. The Obama campaign, for instance, found that its appeals were most effective at raising money when they focused on competition and took a nasty tone that “Obama himself was not enthused about.” 16 According to a leading expert on campaign finance data, the candidates who can attract the most small-dollar donations are not just those who are strongly ideological, but who can use media to heckle. 17 For example, Representative Joe Wilson, who famously screamed that President Obama was a liar when Obama was speaking before Congress in 2009, raised $2 million in the days following his outburst.""" #####c ##### # # rutherford how to argue with a racist reading notes # #####o ##### # rhetoric against racialism #####o # the racialism question properly stated Rutherford 2020: summary of racialism as a question: """Are there essential biological (that is, genetic) differences between populations that account for socially important similarities or divisions within or between those populations?""" # science and reality against race and racism Rutherford 2020: banger quote against scientific racism: """Race is real because we perceive it. Racism is real because we enact it. Neither race nor racism has foundations in science. It is our duty to contest the warping of scientific research, especially if it is being used to justify prejudice. If you are a racist, then you are asking for a fight. But science is my ally, not yours, and your fight is not just with me, but with reality.""" Rutherford 2020: banger quote against scientific racism: """[R]acism is not simply wrong because it is based on scientifically specious ideas. Racism is wrong because it is an affront to human dignity. The rights of people and the respect that individuals are due by dint of being a person are not predicated on biology. They are human rights. Hypothetically, if there were genetic differences between populations that we have not found yet, and these do correspond with the folk definitions of race, the fact that we have not found them means they are tiny at best.""" Rutherford 2020: banger quote against scientific racism: """The sweet irony is that the whole science of human genetics was founded by racists in a time of racism, and singularly has become the field that has demonstrated the scientific falsity of race. As a result, the foundations of racism cannot be drawn from science.""" # observed differences vs causal differences Rutherford 2020: the racist is satisfied with observed differences (ex: 13/50), but the scientific anti-racist is not, because the racist assumes causality: """If you are using science to justify a racist opinion, observations of performance differences of these groups in cognitive tasks are the end of a conversation. For someone who is interested in science as a mechanism for pursuing truth, they are the beginning.""" # racialists are obsessed, scientists have abandoned race, which advantages the racialist Rutherford 2020: racialism dominates fringe academia: """People fixated on finding biological bases for racial differences appear more interested in the racism than the science. Arguments in online social media seem to involve people for whom demonstrations of genetic or behavioural differences being evidence for racial categories are the absorbing passion of their lives; these are people who are invigorated by animosity. This is a difficult landscape to navigate, because the vast majority of scientists abandoned the scientific validity of race many years ago, and as a result, very few people in genetics study questions specifically of race. Only the fixated remain, as if they have some secret knowledge that we have been suppressing for reasons of ideology.""" # against "race doesn't exist" or "race is a social construct" Rutherford 2020: saying that race does not exist is counter-productive; it exists as a social phenomenon, but science explicitly rejects the biological phenomenon: """In modern biology, race has been used with more specificity, as informal categories that people generally understand due to contemporary common usage. But as a result of ever more precise taxonomy in humans, none of the historical or colloquial usages of race tallies with what genetics tells us about human variation. As a result, we are prone to saying glib things such as ‘race doesn’t exist’, or ‘race is just a social construct’. While these sentiments may be well-intentioned, they can have the effect of undermining the scientifically more accurate way of expressing the complexities of human variation, and our clumsy attempts to classify ourselves or others. Race most certainly does exist because it is a social construct. What we must answer is the question of whether there is a basis to race that is meaningful in terms of fundamental biology and behaviour. Are there essential biological (that is, genetic) differences between populations that account for socially important similarities or divisions within or between those populations?""" Rutherford 2020: visible minority status: """What we can also say with an arsenal of scientific ammunition is that though skin colour is the first and most obvious way we see humans, it’s a superficial route to an understanding of human variation, and a very bad way to classify people. Our view of reality, so profoundly limited, has been co-opted into a deliberate political lie. We say ‘black’ when what we mean is ‘recently descended from a continent that has more genetic diversity and pigmentation diversity than anywhere else on Earth’.""" Rutherford 2020: saying that race is a social construct does not mean race doesn't shape our social relations: """Race is a social construct. This does not mean it is invalid or unimportant. Humans are social animals, and the way we perceive each other is of paramount importance. But it does mean that the colloquial use of race is a taxonomy that is not supported by our understanding of fundamental biology, meaning genetics and evolution.""" # history: racism outside Christendom Rutherford 2020: medieval Islam developed its own racialist defense of slavery of African people: """Within Islam in the Middle Ages, there is minimal discussion in the surviving literature of superiority or prejudice owing to skin colour, until the writings of the eleventh-century philosopher Avicenna, who believed that people exposed to extremes of climate (relative to the Middle East) were more suited to slavery due to regionally determined differences in temperament: pale-skinned Europeans were ignorant and lacked discernment, dark-skinned Africans were fickle and foolish. Both, therefore, were suited to oppression during a period that encompassed more than 900 years and upwards of five million enslaved people.""" ##### # genetics ##### # tangled bank Rutherford 2020: evolution is not a tree, but a tangled bank: """What we see with our eyes is the merest fraction of a human. The metaphor of a tree is how we tend to think of evolution, with its trunk and boughs, bifurcating into unique and discrete branches, until it gets to the twig of humankind. But the explicatory power of a tree for understanding huge swathes of human behaviour and our evolutionary trajectory is seriously limited. Comparing human evolution to a tree only works if we mean trees that have been cultivated by us: pollarded to nurture new growth; espaliered – coaxed along other migratory pathways; and pleached – forced to entwine with other branches. That we are the product not of a tree but a tangled bank may not be obvious. But that is why we invented science: to free ourselves from the shackles of perception, to see things – including people – as they really are.""" # does clustering or identification mean races exist? no Rutherford 2020: the ability to cluster different people into different "ethnic" groups does not mean those differences have interesting and important social differences caused by those genetic differences: """Humans suffer universally from a syndrome that Richard Dawkins called the ‘tyranny of the discontinuous mind’. We yearn to categorise things and fail to recognise continuity. We strain to put things into discrete boxes, and define things by what they are rather than what they do. This is a problem in science, and one that relates to the Linnaean classification that biologists cling to.""" Rutherford 2020: examining Rosenberg and Tang type k-cluster identification papers: identificability does not mean importance: """That is remarkably similar to the classic racial taxonomies from the era of scientific racism. Does this mean they were right after all? Well, no. This type of analysis shows broad similarities in populations: it reflects geographical landmasses, which are not insurmountable barriers to reproduction, but do hinder interbreeding; it also reflects evolutionary history and migration. The data also showed long, clear gradients between all of the clusters, and no unambiguous way to say where one cluster ends and another begins. Without sharp boundaries between these population structures, instead it showed continuity between people. This, as Johann Gottfried von Herder had suggested, was because human variation will not succumb to an imposed artificial taxonomy, but instead reflects history. Rosenberg’s paper is often used by racists to erroneously claim that there are indeed five genetically distinct races. In fact, it does no such thing, and this is obvious in the data: when the clusters are set at two, Africa, Europe and West Asia are lumped together as one and the rest of the world as another. There is no a priori reason to settle on five clusters as being the definitive categorisation of humans, and deciding to do so because it corresponds with an earlier yet debunked classification is simply affirming pre-existing biases. When you increase the cluster number to six, the next distinct group to emerge are the Kalasha. They are a northern Pakistani tribe of around 4,000 people who marry almost exclusively within their own ethnic population, which is tucked away in relative isolation in the mountains of the Hindu Kush. Though these people are somewhat genetically distinct, not even the most committed racist describes the Kalasha as a sixth human race.""" Rutherford 2020: the ability to identify different vertical stripes within Spain does not mean that those vertical stripes are meaningfully different: """Bear in mind that all of these studies rely on complex statistical analyses on ever increasing datasets, and that they are based on genotype, not phenotype. What that means is that even if the differences and similarities in DNA make useful proxies for predicting the populations from which they were sampled, they don’t necessarily correlate with the traditional categories of race, as determined primarily by pigmentation. This type of analysis is totally valid, and is the basis for studying human history, migration and genetic variation between populations and people. We could keep increasing the number of clusters and find ever more precise similarities and overlaps. When even higher resolution genetic mapping was applied to the people of Britain in 2015, families who had lived in Devon for multiple generations could be distinguished from the people of Cornwall, and when these precise differences were plotted on a map the boundary was the River Tamar, which for centuries has effectively been the county line. When the same technique was applied to the Iberian Peninsula in 2019, it showed vertical stripes of similarity, revealing that Spain’s history meant that people are fractionally but measurably more similar in a north–south axis than they are east to west. Are they functionally different? Of course not, it’s simply that we have become so good at identifying the genetic histories of populations that we can pick up these wispy, diaphanous traces of similarity and difference. We could eventually cluster all humans into 7 billion individuals, because every human genome is unique.""" # racial purity is meaningless Rutherford 2020: ancient people loved fucking, and they bred widely: """People have moved around the world throughout history and had sex wherever and whenever they could. Sometimes these are big moves in short times. More often people are largely static over a few generations, and that can feel like a geographical and cultural anchor. Nevertheless, every Nazi has Jewish ancestors. Every white supremacist has Middle Eastern ancestors. Every racist has African, Indian, Chinese, Native American, aboriginal Australian ancestors, as well as everyone else, and not just in the sense that humankind is an African species in deep prehistory, but at a minimum from classical times, and probably much more recently. Racial purity is a pure fantasy. For humans, there are no purebloods, only mongrels enriched by the blood of multitudes.""" Rutherford 2020: direct genetic inheritance is fundamentally different than ancestral lineage: """Basic biology tells us that we inherit half of our genome from our mothers and half from our fathers. This is a truth universally acknowledged for all humans through time: a new whole genome is forged at the conception of a child. But the process of genetic shuffling that occurs in the formation of sperm and egg guarantees that each one of those two cells is unique and carries a unique half genome (therefore a unique half is lost in subsequent generations, should that sperm or egg be successful). Which means that not the same half gets transferred each generation. Over the generations, descendants begin to shed the DNA of their actual ancestors. The amount that vanishes is cumulatively huge: you carry DNA from only half of your ancestors eleven generations back. Genealogy and genetic genealogy are not perfectly matched, and progressively grow apart as we go back in time. It is therefore possible that you are genetically unrelated to people from whom you are actually descended as recently as the middle of the eighteenth century. This is a point that further undermines the appropriation of genetics as a means of asserting membership of a tribe, race or other identity.""" # against adaptationism Rutherford 2020: "adaptationism" assumes that different genes frequencies in different populations must have been selected for; but this is an invalid assumption, due to genetic drift and the neutral hypothesis (which allows a large degree of divergence in frequency of genes with no strong effect, among other facts): """These are fractionally more sophisticated versions of the evolutionary crime we call adaptationism* – the assumption that natural selection is responsible for specific human behaviours, rather than happenstance or processes that are neither positive nor negative, but have simply drifted into existence. In the genomic age we are capable of actually seeing the parts of the genome where selection has taken place, and there are population-specific mutations that indicate positive selection of particular genes as adaptations to the local environment. Pigmentation, specific diets, resistance to diseases (such as malaria) and other traits are demonstrably local adaptations that are part of humankind’s success in colonising the world. Adaptationism is an error because in many cases it results in untestable hypotheses, but ones that are appealing because they sound superficially convincing – blacks are good sprinters because of selection during slavery; Jews are intellectually gifted because their history of persecution enriched genes associated with brains.""" # brief summary of how gwas works and why it can't alone demonstrate causality Rutherford 2020: GWAS examines the aggregate effect on a measured phenotype of every gene, which enables us to identify genes with high influence and to estimate the overall summative effect of genes on phenotype: """Understanding population genetics, however, is important for scientific arguments about race, so buckle up, and I’ll be brief. For really complex human traits, where thousands of minuscule differences seem to have small but cumulative effects, aggregating them helps us pool the genetic influence. This is known as a polygenic risk score (PRS). It’s a metric that allows us to estimate the total genomic underpinning of a trait: when the outcome of a GWAS is many genes, totting up their effect is handy. It is a powerful instrument, and a valuable addition to the scientist’s toolkit. Polygenic scores help us to understand the genetics of any human trait, including complex diseases, though not yet with enough detail to warrant clinical intervention. GWAS and PRS are truly brilliant tools that have utterly transformed the field of human genetics. That does not mean that they are infallible as tools, nor that they are always the most appropriate tools.""" Rutherford 2020: polygenic scores (PGS or PRS) merely demonstrate that a specific gene is *associated with* a specific phenotype, not that that gene *causes* or *helps to cause* that phenotype: """Polygenic scores potently affirm that intelligence is heritable within a population. But this is a tool that is not particularly adept at dissecting the differences between populations. So when we see different IQ scores in different populations, and we know that the heritability of intelligence is high (more than 50 per cent), that doesn’t mean necessarily that the different DNA variants account for the differences between the populations. It would be perfectly possible for two populations with different sets of genetic differences to get the same IQ scores. Take height again, as it is easier to measure and better understood: the many differences in DNA that go some way towards accounting for the differences we see in heights in a population are not genes for height, only ones associated with height. We don’t know what those genetic signatures do, whether they are influencing height or just are physically linked to genes that are important for height, and are going along for the ride due to the way DNA is chopped up when sperm or eggs are made. We also don’t know if the genetic differences are dependent on the local environment to drive the phenotype and make the average taller. We might expect to see different genetic associations in Europe compared to Japan when looking at height, but without knowing what those genes do, we can’t know whether they have drifted into being, are significant, or are really meaningful in different environments, with different food or nutrition. These are not questions that this type of genetic study can answer well. GWAS are important and powerful for finding genes of relevance within a population – but not between different populations. This, I will not dispute, is difficult technical science and statistical analysis. But it is important in the ongoing discussions about intelligence and race. We get better at forensically unpicking groups of people, and the tools become easier to deploy. That doesn’t mean the tools are the right ones for the job. Scientists studying human variation, and journalists and readers need to be wary of drawing wrong conclusions from right results. Since the birth of the GWAS, results have frequently been vastly misreported: weak correlations claimed as causes, typically in the format ‘scientists discover the gene for X’. With the development of the polygenic score on top of the GWAS, we run the risk of further overinterpretation, or outright error.""" Rutherford 2020: the proper question for scientific racists and hereditarians is not whether a specific gene correlates with a specific outcome, but whether evolution selected for that gene -- without large differential selection, we would not expect large differences in genes, just lots of random genetic drift: """When trying to account for disparities in intelligence, we not only need to bear in mind the limitations of the tools to hand, but also the reasons we attribute to our observations. In this specific case of intellectual performance, the question is: has biological evolution via selection – natural, artificial or both – driven the difference we can see between populations?""" ##### # sports against racialism ##### # black people overrepresentation logical flaws Rutherford 2020: the overrepresentation of black or African people in certain sports does not neatly line up with the predictions that African people have more "explosive" energy: """Let us speculate, generously. Maybe selection during slavery is the biological difference between over-representation of African American athletic success compared to African. Let’s leave aside the lack of support for that idea from generational time, and the absence of evidence for selection in the genome, as mentioned above. Let’s pretend that the genes being selected relate to power and strength, and by extension, that translates into a sprinting advantage, even though slave breeding programmes were not for fast running. Why then do Eastern Europeans dominate weightlifting, and are absent in sprinting, when slavery selection for power would be perfectly attuned to this sport, much more so than running? Why do African Americans dominate in boxing, but not wrestling? Why is it that a game such as squash, which also requires explosive energy and power, is dominated by athletes from India, Pakistan, Egypt and Great Britain, and has never featured a successful person of African descent? Why are there no African American sprint cyclists?""" Rutherford 2020: in particular, we should expect that African people would dominate tennis through explosive energy -- but sports are mostly a social phenomenon, and one that black people have been excluded from until recently: """Tennis is a sport requiring strength and explosive energy, yet people of West African or any African descent are largely absent from this sport of privilege. With twenty-three Grand Slam titles (and an additional sixteen in doubles), the dominance of Serena Williams in modern tennis puts her as one of the greatest tennis players of all time, and indeed one of the greatest sportspeople of all time. Is Williams’ success a result of her ancestry? Yes, in a narrow sense, in that her assumed genetic make-up bestows part of her advantage. But the question is this: is her ancestry the defining characteristic of her success? That a black woman is a true great is partially a reflection of the lowering of prejudice and raising of opportunity in the modern era. By being one of the greatest tennis players of all time, just like Usain Bolt is the fastest runner ever recorded, they are already wonderfully freakish outliers and poor representatives of normal humans. Are they outliers genetically? For sprinting, there is a notable and blindingly obvious fact that is forever ignored. African American, Caribbean and African Canadian athletes have dominated sprinting for forty years, all descended from the enslaved from West Africa. Only five white men have competed in the Olympic 100 metres finals since the starting pistol was fired in the 1980 race, and the gold and bronze in that race are the only medals not won by black 100 metres sprinters. In that same time, the number of African men in the finals is also five. This includes two medals, both won by Frankie Fredericks from Namibia, a country that is not considered West Africa (rather it is south-west Africa); only one of the five Africans logged a time less than 10 seconds. By this metric, African men are precisely as successful as white men. The transatlantic slave trade also imported millions of West African women and men to South America. The number of South Americans of any ancestry to have competed in the 100 metres finals? Zero. The point is this: elite sprinters in the Olympics are not a dataset on which a statistician could draw any satisfactory conclusion. Yet it is precisely the data on which an extremely popular stereotype is based. The idea of black athleticism in sprinting is drawn from a hugely skewed and fatally flawed sample, one which due to the relative absence of West African sprinters doesn’t even support its own hypothesis. If people of West African ancestry have a genetic advantage, why are there few West African sprinters, when slavery does not account for the difference?""" Rutherford 2020: there's an analogy to the sport towns of Jamaica, Kenya, and Ethiopia: a great tennis club in the city of Reading: """*There is a real equivalent for British sport that makes the same point though with somewhat less glamour. The best table tennis players the UK has ever produced came from one street in the city of Reading. Is there something special about the people of Reading? No, but there was a very good table tennis club there.""" ##### # intelligence ##### # history of jewish people Rutherford 2020: Jewish people may have been overrepresented in certain jobs -- but those jobs were not intensely cognitively demanding, and any stronger claims demand strong evidence: """Though antisemitism is thousands of years old, and Jewish associations with intellectual pursuits are centuries old, much of the current discourse on supposedly innate Jewish cognitive abilities stem from a single study in 2006. In a paper that has had significant influence – and initiated much scrutiny – Gregory Cochran, Jason Hardy and Henry Harpending* suggested that the history of Ashkenazi Jews in Europe had the effect of enriching genes associated with intellect. They propose a number of factors unique to Jewish (and specifically Ashkenazi) history that created these favourable conditions for intellectual selection. These include social behaviours, such as endogamy, meaning that they mostly interbred, which created a gene pool which is favourable to natural selection. And ‘they had jobs in which increased IQ strongly favoured economic success, in contrast with other populations, who were mostly peasant farmers’. ‘Winnowing through persecution’ is another suggestion in the paper – somehow, acts of oppression and tyranny resulted in survival of the smartest. The authors, however, are clear in the paper that they can’t explain how that would work, as no such effect is seen in other persecuted people. I find it most strange that you include such guesswork in a scientific study. In response to the assertion that professions involving commerce require high levels of intellect, I am unaware of strong evidence that success in business correlates with significantly above average intelligence. Cochran et al. describe moneylending and other forms of commerce that are presumed to be the preserve of Jews as ‘cognitively demanding jobs’ and that ‘the Ashkenazi niche was so specifically demanding of accounting and management skills’. Presenting this as evidence also sounds pretty sketchy to me. Medieval moneylending is not exactly rocket science and it’s definitely not medieval brain surgery. They also cite specific biological factors and ‘physiological effects that could increase intelligence’. In the ancient days of 2006, we knew less than we do today about neuroscience, and how biochemistry in cells relates to thought and action – but not that much less. Neuroscience is a vibrant field, but the truth is that we still really have very little idea of how neuronal growth and connectivity relates to cognition. If I have succeeded in convincing you that genetics is bewilderingly complicated, apply that to the development of the physical brain and the esoteric nature of thought, and you face one of the great frontiers in science. The suggestion is that some disease genes have specific effects on the growth of neurons, in a way that might enhance IQ. But this reflects a profoundly simplistic view of neurological development.""" Rutherford 2020: Jewish domination of moneylending came to an end in the 15th century; although more Jews per person than Christians may have been moneylenders, it was a very small proportion of both: """Notionally a positive attribute, an evolutionary history that has fomented intellectual and commercial success is a major part of the standard and longstanding tropes of antisemitism. But the argument is riven with antisemitic tropes that are ahistorical. Moneylending is a common stereotype, not least because of Shakespeare’s Shylock. In fact, moneylending was a trade that was extremely limited in time and space within Jewish culture in Europe, and by the end of the fifteenth century had largely vanished from Jewish populations. Yet the implication of Cochran et al.’s scientific speculation is that business and financial acumen has driven the evolution of Jewish brains.""" Rutherford 2020: the genes hypothesized by breathless adaptationists to cause greater Jewish intelligence have not yet even shown a correlation in GWAS to date: """They did not know this at the time of writing their paper, but we now know that the genes associated with intellectual capability are myriad, and of very small but cumulative effect – pixels on a colossal screen. Of the genes identified so far (and remember that while we know these genes are important, we don’t know what they do, and therefore why they are important), many are expressed in the brain (as indeed are thousands of genes), and therefore may well have a direct effect on intellect. There are databases that list hundreds of GWAS results and thousands of genes. You can enter a gene and ask the database to pull out studies that indicate the gene is associated with any one of dozens of types of trait, from height to mortality to bones, as well as cognitive and neurological. I checked the current databases for the disease genes that Cochran et al. suggest might be driving selection for Jewish smarts, to see if, at the time of writing, they associated with brains or cognitive abilities. The result? Not one of them does.""" Rutherford 2020: it's simpler to suggest that culture causes high Jewish educational and economic performance: """The evidence for selection of genes for intellect in Jews is weak. Is it not simply more scientifically parsimonious to suggest that a culture that values scholarship is more likely to produce scholars? The immense intellectual value placed on the traditions of yeshivot Talmudic scholarship began in the Middle Ages and continues to this day, and is arguably without parallel. Just like a society that champions long-distance running as a pathway to economic and cultural success, with highly successful runners already in place, a multitude will chase them.""" #####c #####c ##### # # equal shares reading notes # #####o ##### # importance of theorizing a socialist alternative #####o # alternative building Wright 1996 in Roemer 1996: why presenting an alternative is important: demonstrates which ways to move and provides the social-political motivation to move there: """The Real Utopias Project embraces this tension between dreams and practice. It is founded on the belief that what is pragmatically possible is not fixed independently of our imaginations, but is itself shaped by our visions. Self-fulfilling prophecies are powerful forces in history, and while it may be polyannish to say ‘where there is a will there is a way’, it is certainly true that without ‘will’ many ‘ways’ become impossible. Nurturing clear-sighted understandings of what it would take to create social institutions free of oppression is part of creating a political will for radical social changes to reduce oppression. A vital belief in a utopian destination may be necessary to motivate people to leave on the journey from the status quo in the first place, even though the actual destination may fall short of the utopian ideal.""" # provisional utopia Wright 1996 in Roemer 1996: why provisional utopia is important: it links incremental and utopian, small and grand: """The Real Utopias Project is an attempt at sustaining and deepening serious discussion of radical alternatives to existing institutions. The objective is to focus on specific proposals for the fundamental redesign of basic social institutions rather than on either vague, abstract formulations of grand designs, or on small reforms of existing practices.""" #####c ##### # weakness of evidence of failure of Soviet central planning against socialism as a whole ##### # the empirical evidence is unclear Roemer 1996: it's too soon to tell: """When Zhou Enlai was asked to comment on the consequences of the French revolution, he replied, ‘It’s too soon to tell’. I have argued that the prudent social scientist should likewise remain agnostic about what appears to be capitalism’s trouncing defeat of socialism in the late twentieth century.""" Roemer 1996: the fastest growers of the 20th century were East Asian development states, not neoliberal capitalist states; the experiment is polluted: """The real-life experiments are severely polluted, from a scientific viewpoint: the most dynamic economies of the 1960s onwards (Japan and the East Asian tigers) have used markets with a good dose of planning, and the Communist economies not only had planning and the absence of markets but also political dictatorship, a background condition an experimental designer would like to be able to alter.""" # the theoretical evidence is unclear Roemer 1996: thick markets (closer to Post-Keynesian view) vs thin markets (closer to neoclassical view): """It is not correct to characterize modern capitalist firms as instruments by which entrepreneurs capitalize their talents. The profits of firms are distributed to many owners, who have no direct control over decisions which affect profitability, and who are in large part not responsible for firms’ successes or failures, Firms are run by hired agents of their owners: this suggests that hired agents could as well run firms in a socialist economy, one in which profits would be distributed even more diffusely than they are in the large capitalist corporation. Indeed the mechanisms that have evolved (or been designed) under capitalism that enable owners to control management can be transported to a socialist framework. In contrast to the ‘thin’ Hayekian and neoclassical views, which see markets as a minimal structure organizing competition among talented individuals, the modern ‘thick’ view sees markets as operating within the context of complex, man-made institutions, through which all individual contributions become pasteurized and refined. These two views of the market are, I suggest, substantially different, and the latter ‘thick’ view, unlike the former, is amenable to the coexistence of markets and socialism.""" #####c ##### # modelling coupon socialism #####o # toy model graphical summary Roemer 1996: a toy model summary of coupon socialism in 3 periods: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/982121848533823539/unknown.png #####c #####c ##### # # saini superior reading notes # #####o # civilization as european Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """The subtext is that history is over, the fittest have survived, and the victors have been decided. But of course, history is never over, and it is always more complicated than we think. In Sir Hans Sloane’s time, accounts of the past were scribbled hastily, without the benefit of knowing about the remarkable Indus Valley civilization more than five thousand years old. We still know relatively little about this civilization, except that it had sophisticated cities and conducted trade using precise weights and measures. Sloane could have known little of the more recent Aztec and Inca empires in South America, which upon their discovery by Europeans destabilized the very meaning of civilization by proving that highly sophisticated societies emerged independently elsewhere. They came as such a shock that some to this day still believe their cities were the work of aliens.""" # racialism justifies racism Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Every society that happens to be dominant comes to think of itself as being the best, deep down. The more powerful we humans become, the more our power begins to be framed as natural as well as cultural. We paint our enemies as ugly foreigners and our subordinates as inferior. We invent hierarchies, give meaning to our own racial categories. One day, five thousand years forward, in another museum in another nation, these could be European or American bones encased in glass, what were once considered advanced societies replaced by new ones. History is never over. No place or people has a claim on superiority. Race is the counter-argument. Race is at its heart the belief that we are born different, deep inside our bodies, perhaps even in character and intellect, as well as in outward appearance. It’s the notion that groups of people have certain innate qualities that not only are visible at the surface of their skins but also run down into their innate capacities, that perhaps even help define the passage of progress, the success and failure of the nations our ancestors came from.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """The idea of race didn’t make people treat other people as subhuman. They were already treated as subhuman before race was invoked. But once it was invoked, the subjugation took on a new force.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Haier’s comments betray just how much this field remains plagued by dark politics. I can’t help but recall the nineteenth-century race scientists who jumped to biological explanations for the inequality they saw in the world, who thought other races had been doomed to failure by nature because their brains were too small or their temperaments too weak. Confronted by slavery and colonialism, they skimmed over history and culture, preferring instead to look to biology for justification for this kind of exploitation. When researchers like Meisenberg today link economic development to intelligence, they imply that the vast inequality between the world’s richest and poorest countries is rooted not just in the imbalance of power or historical circumstance, but in the innate weaknesses of the populations themselves. Racial injustice and inequality, in their minds, isn’t injustice or inequality at all. It’s there because the racial hierarchy is real.""" # indigenous australian aboriginal agriculture Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """“There was certainly little respect for the remarkable systems of understanding and land management that indigenous Australians had cultivated over millennia,” explains Griffiths. For thousands of years the land has been embedded with stories and songs, cultivated with digging sticks and fire and by hand. “While people have lived in Australia, there’s been enormous environmental change as well as social change, political change, cultural change.” Their lives have never been static. In his 2014 book Dark Emu, Black Seeds writer Bruce Pascoe argues, as other scholars have done, that this engagement with the land was so sophisticated and successful, including the harvesting of crops and fish, that it amounted to farming and agriculture.""" # racism among early enlightenment thinkers Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """“When you look at these giants of the eighteenth century, Kant and Hegel, they were terribly racist. They were unbelievably racist!” Kant stated in Observations on the Feeling of the Beautiful and the Sublime in 1764, “The Negroes of Africa have by nature no feeling that rises above the trifling.” When he met a quick-witted carpenter, he quickly dismissed him with the observation that “this fellow was quite black from head to foot, a clear proof that what he said was stupid.” While a few Enlightenment thinkers did resist the idea of a racial hierarchy, many, including the French philosopher Voltaire and the English thinker David Hume, saw no contradiction between the values of liberty and fraternity and their belief that nonwhites were innately inferior to whites.""" # views on neanderthals through history: idiots, until europeans realized they were european Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Fairly soon after it was found that it was modern-day Europeans who have the closer association to Neanderthals—not, as it turned out, Aboriginal Australians—the image of the Neanderthal underwent a dramatic makeover. When their remains were first discovered in 1856, the German naturalist Ernst Haeckel had suggested naming them Homo stupidus. But now these same Neanderthals, once the dictionary definition of simple-minded, loutish, uncivilized thugs, became oddly rehabilitated.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """“Neanderthals are romanticized,” John Shea tells me. They’re no longer around, and we don’t have a great deal of evidence about what they were like or how they lived, which means they can be whatever we want them to be. “We’re free to project good qualities, things we admire, and the ideal on them.” In reality, whatever they were like, he says, “The interbreeding thing is more like a symbolic thing for us than it is of evolutionary consequence.” Yet researchers haven’t been able to help themselves from looking for evolutionary consequences. One team of scientists claimed that the tiny peppering of Neanderthal DNA may have given Europeans different immune systems from Africans. Another published paper linked Neanderthal DNA to a whole host of human differences, including “skin tone and hair color, height, sleeping patterns, mood, and smoking status.” An American research group went so far as to try to link the amount of Neanderthal DNA people have with the shape of their brain, implying that non-Africans may have some mental differences from Africans as a result of their interbreeding ancestors. For more than a century the word “Neanderthal” had been synonymous with low intelligence. In the space of a decade, once the genetic link to modern Europeans was suspected, that all changed. In the popular press, there was a flurry of excitement about our hitherto undervalued relatives. Headlines proclaimed that “we haven’t been giving Neanderthals enough credit” (Popular Science), that they “were too smart for their own good” (The Telegraph), that “humans didn’t outsmart the Neanderthals” (Washington Post). Meanwhile a piece in the New Yorker whimsically reflected on their apparent everyday similarity to humans, including the finding that they may have suffered from psoriasis. Poor things, they even itched like us. “With each new discovery, the distance between them and us seems to narrow,” wrote the author. In the popular imagination, the family tree had gained a new member. In January 2017 the New York Times ran a story headlined “Neanderthals Were People, Too” and asked, “Why did science get them so wrong?” This was indeed the big question. If the definition of “people” had always included archaic humans, then why should Neanderthals so suddenly and so generously be accepted as “people” now? And not just accepted, but elevated to the celebrity status of sadly deceased genius cousin? It wasn’t all that long ago that scientists had been reluctant to accept the full humanity even of Aboriginal Australians. Gail Beck’s family had been denied their culture; treated in their own nation as unworthy of survival; their children ripped from their parents to be abused by strangers. In the nineteenth century Aboriginal Australians had been lumped together with Neanderthals as evolutionary dead ends, both destined for extinction. But now that common ground had been found between Europeans and Neanderthals, now we were all people! Now we had found our common ground!""" # on darwin and racialism Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """In 1871 the naturalist and biologist Charles Darwin published The Descent of Man, sweeping away these religious creation myths and framing the human species as having one common ancestor many millennia ago and as having evolved slowly like all other life on earth. After studying humans across the world, their emotions and expressions, he wrote, “It seems improbable to me in the highest degree that so much similarity, or rather identity of structure, could have been acquired by independent means.” We are too alike in our basic responses, our smiles and tears, our blushes, to have different origins. On this point alone Darwin might have settled the race debate. He demonstrated that we could only have evolved from shared origins, that human races didn’t emerge separately. And on a personal level, this was important to him. Darwin’s family included two influential abolitionists, his grandfathers, Erasmus Darwin and Josiah Wedgwood. He himself had seen the brutality of slavery firsthand on his travels. When the naturalist Louis Agassiz, in the United States, spoke about human races as having separate origins, Darwin wrote disparagingly in a letter that this must have come as comfort to slaveholding Southerners. A central tenet of the antislavery movement was that humanity is one, that we share the same blood.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """But the abolitionists’ conviction wasn’t the last word on the subject. Darwin still struggled with the notion of equality when it came to race. Like Abraham Lincoln, who was born on the same day as Darwin, he opposed slavery but was also ambiguous on the question of whether black Africans and Australians were strictly equal to white Europeans. He left open the possibility that, even though we could all be traced back to a common ancestor, populations may have diverged since then, producing levels of difference. As the British anthropologist Tim Ingold notes, Darwin saw gradations between the “highest men of the highest races and the lowest savages.” He suggested, for example, that the “children of savages” have a stronger tendency to protrude their lips when they sulk than European children, because, similar to chimps, they are closer to the “primordial condition.” The historian Gregory Radick at the University of Leeds notes that Darwin, even though he made such a bold and original contribution to the idea of racial unity, also seemed to be unembarrassed by his belief in an evolutionary hierarchy. Men were above women, and white races were above others.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Mixed with the politics of the day, this was devastating. The uncertainty around the biological facts left more than enough room for ideology to be mixed with real science, leading to the fabrication of fresh racial myths. Brown and yellow races were a bit higher up, some argued, not unlike Darwin did. Whites were the most evolved—and by implication, the most civilized and the most human. What was seen as the success of the white races became couched in the language of the “survival of the fittest,” which carried the implication that the most “primitive” peoples, as they were described, would inevitably lose the struggle for survival as the human race evolved. Ingold argues that even Darwin himself began to frame evolution as an “imperialist doctrine of progress,” rather than seeing it as acting to make a species better adapted to its particular environment. “In bringing the rise of science and civilisation within the compass of the same evolutionary process that had made humans out of apes, and apes out of creatures lower in the scale, Darwin was forced to attribute what he saw as the ascendancy of reason to hereditary endowment,” writes Ingold. “For the theory to work, there had to be significant differences in such endowment between ‘tribes’ [and] ‘nations.”’ For hunter-gatherers to live so differently from city dwellers, the logic goes, it must be that their brains had not yet progressed to the same stage of evolution.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Adding fuel to this bonfire of flawed thinking (after all, we now know that the brains of hunter-gatherers are no different from those of anyone else) were Darwin’s supporters, some of whom happened to be fervent racists. The English biologist Thomas Henry Huxley, known as “Darwin’s bulldog,” argued that not all humans were equal. In an 1865 essay on the emancipation of black slaves, he wrote that the average white was “bigger brained,” asserting, “The highest places in the hierarchy of civilization will assuredly not be within the reach of our dusky cousins.” For Huxley, freeing slaves was a morally good thing for white men to do, but the raw facts of biology made the idea of equal rights—for women as well as for black people—little more than an “illogical delusion.” In Germany, too, Darwin’s loudest cheerleader was Ernst Haeckel, who taught zoology at the University of Jena beginning in 1862 and was a proud nationalist. He liked to draw connections between black Africans and primates, seeing them as a kind of living “missing link” in the evolutionary chain that connected apes to Europeans.""" # link between oppression, inferiority, and ease of genetic explanations Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """“People are more readily perceived as inferior by nature when they are already seen as oppressed,” write the American scholars Karen Fields and Barbara Fields in their 2012 book Racecraft. They explain how a sense of inevitability gets attached to a social routine until it comes to be seen as natural. The idea of race didn’t make people treat other people as subhuman. They were already treated as subhuman before race was invoked. But once it was invoked, the subjugation took on a new force. Something about treating human difference as a science gave it a peculiar quality. Observing humans turned the humans being observed into strange beasts. While maintaining the unimpeachable impression of scientific objectivity, somehow the scientist himself always turned out to be the gold standard of beauty and intelligence. His own race was safe in his hands. The German naturalist Johann Blumenbach idealized the Caucasian race, to which he belonged, but described Ethiopians as being “bandy-legged.” If legs were different, there was never any question that it was Caucasians who might be the unusual ones. The creatures caged in the human zoos were those who had failed to reach the ideal of white European physical and mental perfection.""" # galton and pearson Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Galton considered himself an expert on human difference, on the finer qualities that make a person better or worse. If not quite the genius that Darwin was, he certainly aspired to be. “I find that talent is transmitted by inheritance in a very remarkable degree,” he had once written in an essay titled “Hereditary Character and Talent.” His logic, drawing on his cousin’s theories of natural selection and the survival of the fittest, was that a race of people could be improved if the most intelligent were encouraged to reproduce and the stupidest were not—the same way you might breed a fatter cow or a redder apple. Some saw it as a way of artificially speeding up human evolution, driving the race closer to mental and physical perfection. As an example, he drew on the fact that brilliant writers were often related to other brilliant writers. He noted that of 605 notable men who lived between 1453 and 1853, one in six were related to another member of the same group. The ingredients for greatness must be heritable, he reasoned, choosing to overlook that their being notable might be a product of wealth and connections. “If a twentieth part of the cost and pains were spent in measures for the improvement of the human race that is spent on the improvement of the breed of horses and cattle, what a galaxy of genius might we not create!” Galton dreamed of a “utopia” of highly bred superpeople, and he made creating such a perfect society his lifelong mission.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """The first challenge would be to measure people’s abilities, to build up a bank of data about who exactly were the most intelligent and who the least. In 1904 he convinced the University of London to set up the world’s first Eugenics Record Office at 50 Gower Street, dedicated to measuring human differences, in the hope of understanding what kind of people Britain might want more of. University College, London, jumped at the chance, replying to his request within a week. After a short time it became known as the Galton Laboratory for National Eugenics.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """The word “eugenics” is no longer used around here. Long after Galton’s death, his laboratory was renamed the Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment; it is now housed in the Darwin Building. And this is where Subhadra Das steps in. Among the vast collection of objects she is responsible for at the university is Galton’s personal archive, which contains his personal photographs, equipment, and papers—documents that track the genesis and development of eugenics. Das also looks after objects that belonged to Galton’s close collaborator, the mathematician Karl Pearson, who became the first professor of national eugenics in 1911, after Galton died. “Pearson’s greatest contribution, the thing that people remember him for, is founding the discipline of statistics. A lot of work on that was done with Galton. “Galton, if you’re going to bring his science down to anything in particular, is a statistician,” Das tells me.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """“You have to call Galton a racist because the work that he did is fundamental to the story of scientific racism. So not only is he a racist, he is part of the way we invented racism, and the way that we think about it.”""" # racism in china and japan Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """In the first decades of the twentieth century, all over the world, eugenics began to be conflated with old nineteenth-century ideas about race. In Japan, during the Meiji period, the thinker and politician Katō Hiroyuki used Darwinism to make the point that there was a struggle for survival between different nations. In China in 1905, the revolutionary Wang Jingwei argued that a state made up of a single race was stronger than one comprising multiple races. Other Chinese politicians advocated sterilization as a means of human selection, and racial intermarriage to produce children with whiter skins. Historian Yuehtsen Juliette Chung has noted that during this time, “China seemed to accept passively the notion of race as the West understood it.”""" # two concepts of modern racism Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Two parallel ideologies had by now firmly intertwined in the minds of racists. One, the decades-old concept of the existence of a superior race. The second, informed by eugenics, that unless checked, inferior races would outbreed superior ones. Human variation had gone from being, before the eighteenth century, a jelly-like set of loose generalizations to a hard matter of progress and struggle. Grant’s work was referenced by the Ku Klux Klan. It also became one of the inspirations behind the Immigration Act of 1924, which set quotas according to nationality aimed at decreasing immigration from southern and eastern Europe, including Italy, Greece, and Poland, as well as effectively barring anyone from Asia.""" # explaining lewotin 1972 Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Lewontin’s findings have been reinforced over time. An influential 2002 study published in Science by a team of scientists led by geneticist Noah Rosenberg, then at the University of Southern California, took genetic data from just over a thousand people around the world and showed that indeed as much as 95 percent of variation is within the major population groups. Statistically this means that although I look nothing like the white British woman who lives next door to me in my apartment building, it’s perfectly possible for me to have more in common genetically with her than with my Indian-born neighbor who lives downstairs. Being of the same “race” doesn’t necessarily mean we are genetically more similar.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """The next few decades would be crucial to dismantling the idea that race was real and to proving Montagu right. In 1972 a landmark paper exploring the true breadth of human biological diversity appeared in the annual edition of Evolutionary Biology, written by a geneticist, Richard Lewontin, who later became a professor at Harvard University. Dividing the planet up into seven human groups, based roughly on old-fashioned racial categories, Lewontin investigated just how much genetic diversity there was within these populations compared with the genetic diversity between them. What he found was that there was far more variation among people of the same “race” than between supposedly separate races; he concluded that around 85 percent of all the genetic diversity we see is located within local populations—93 percent if you widen the net to continental populations. In total, around 90 percent of the variation lies roughly within the old racial categories, not between them. There has been at least one critique of Lewontin’s statistical method since then, but geneticists today overwhelmingly agree that although they may be able to use genomic data to roughly categorize people by the continent their ancestors came from (something we can often do equally well by sight), by far the biggest chunk of human genetic difference is indeed found within populations.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Lewontin’s findings have been reinforced over time. An influential 2002 study published in Science by a team of scientists led by geneticist Noah Rosenberg, then at the University of Southern California, took genetic data from just over a thousand people around the world and showed that indeed as much as 95 percent of variation is within the major population groups. Statistically this means that although I look nothing like the white British woman who lives next door to me in my apartment building, it’s perfectly possible for me to have more in common genetically with her than with my Indian-born neighbor who lives downstairs. Being of the same “race” doesn’t necessarily mean we are genetically more similar.""" # on clines Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """All of this didn’t happen in big clumps or clusters, but rather like more of a mesh, as people mated with those they encountered on the way, sometimes traveling further away and sometimes moving back. If everyone in the world had their genomes sequenced, says Jobling, you wouldn’t find hard borders between them, but gradients, with each small community blending into the next, the way hills blend into valleys. The racial categories we are used to seeing on census forms don’t map onto the true picture of human variation.""" # mankind quarterly Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """In the final years before his death, when few scientific journals would touch his work, Gates decided to take matters into his own hands. If they wouldn’t publish him, he would publish himself. He and a handful of like-minded researchers, some on the very darkest margins of science—including the former Nazi scientist Otmar von Verschuer and a British eugenicist, Roger Pearson, in 1960, established a journal of their own. Their aims were simple: to challenge what they saw as a politically correct, left-wing conspiracy around race and bring back some scientific objectivity. (Von Verschuer died in a car accident in 1969, soon after Gates. Pearson, the last of the group still alive, aged ninety in 2018, declined to give me an interview for reasons of ill health.) They named their brave new enterprise the Mankind Quarterly.""" # deep involvement of the pioneer fund Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """At the time, although the story made some corners of the national press, it wasn’t major headline news. “It was largely dismissed, I would say, by people who in retrospect would probably admit were mistaken to write it off,” says Hurt. Looking back on the case, in the context of today’s politics, with the rise of far-right groups in Europe and the US, and nationalism more globally, he believes that what they uncovered should have served as a warning. Scott was just one individual, but he operated within a larger network of intellectuals opposed to desegregation, including Roger Pearson. “What surprised me was how quickly and efficiently these groups worked,” adds Mehler. “You would think it would be fringe people, and that they would remain on the fringe, and they would have difficulty raising funds and making contacts. That wasn’t true at all. What surprised me was how quickly Roger Pearson went from Calcutta, India, to Washington, DC, to Ronald Reagan.”""" # human biodiversity creator Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """When Marks had talked about human biodiversity, he meant the superficial variations we see among individuals, right across the species—not variation among human groups. “There isn’t really room for three, or four, or five biologically distinct kinds of people,” he tells me. He certainly didn’t expect to see people on the list reinforcing old-fashioned racial stereotypes of the kind that had long been debunked. That school of racism was long dead, he assumed. Yet here on this email list, something strange was happening. Observing the conversations that Sailer steered through the group, Marks noticed the term “human biodiversity” being used differently from the way he had originally intended. Members were using it to refer to deep differences between human population groups.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """When Sailer talked about human biodiversity, he didn’t appear to be using the phrase in a politically neutral way, but as a euphemism. He had spun the language used by liberal antiracists to celebrate human cultural diversity to build a new and ostensibly more acceptable language around racism.""" # on unnecessity of divisoin Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """It would have been perfectly possible to study human variation without grouping people. As Jobling explains, the divisions between us are so blurry that humans can theoretically be grouped any way you like. “You could do a thought experiment where you just said we will take Kenyans, Swedes, and Japanese, and will just proportion everybody into those three things.” If this were done, because we are all genetically connected to the average Kenyan, Swede, or Japanese person, either directly or by historic migration, then everyone on earth could theoretically be fully assigned to a group based on just these three nationalities. You could say that you were so many percent Kenyan, so many percent Swedish, and so many percent Japanese.” This may seem meaningless, but actually it is no more meaningless than dividing the world into black, brown, yellow, red, and white. “The definitions of those populations are cultural, and the choice of population is driven by expediency.” Other geneticists have also warned against dividing up the world. It imposes a certain order onto our species and ignores the actual fuzziness. If the Human Genome Diversity Project had proposed sampling people more systematically, in a grid pattern across the globe perhaps, the true overlapping nature of human variation would be easier to see. Scientists would have been able to map gradual, continuous variation across regions, rather than tight knots centered on very small communities. It’s hard not to imagine that this approach—which was mooted at the time but then discarded—might also have been a more effective way of fighting racism. But it wasn’t the one the researchers chose.""" # on racism in the post-genomic era Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """The Canadian philosopher Lisa Gannett has similarly warned about the ethical limits of thinking about race in this new way. To some it may not seem racist to think about statistically average “populations” rather than distinct “types” of people. Certainly early population geneticists such as Dobzhansky believed that racism was rooted in the assumption that within one ethnic group people are all the same, whereas those like him believed that, within these groups, people are actually very different. But in the racist mind, as Gannett explains, it doesn’t necessarily matter how differences are distributed, so long as they are there in some form or another. This conceptual loophole in population genetics—the fact that we’re all different as individuals but that there is also some apparent order to this diversity—is what has since been seized upon by people with racist agendas. Gannett calls it “statistical racism.”""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """In Genes, Peoples, and Languages, Cavalli-Sforza added a humorous aside when talking about the fact that researchers looking hard enough could spot average genetic distinctions between neighboring populations, even at the village level: “People in Pisa and Florence might be pleased that science had validated their ancient mutual distrust by demonstrating their genetic differences,” he wrote jokingly. But then, isn’t this exactly what racism is? A dislike of other groups in the belief that they are biologically different? In the mind of the racist, it probably doesn’t matter how big the groups happen to be, or if the differences are gradual or sharp. It presumably means equally little if it’s all about gene frequencies or population averages, so long as the differences are real. If the people of Pisa and Florence could have their mutual distrust validated by population genetics, then why not the people of any other two places? For Radin, the problem is obvious. It lies in the need to group in the first place, to separate even when that separation means having to zoom in on the very tiniest bits of the genome that might differ, and even then only on average. This need to separate, to treat people as different, is how race was invented. “What happens is that you’ve got a large community of very well meaning, self-described antiracist scientists seeking to find a way to move beyond race into population genetics, which seems to be incredibly neutral. It’s numbers, it’s statistical, it’s objective,” she says. “What they have a more difficult time reckoning with is that even something like population genetics is a science done by people, working with the assumptions and the ideas that are available at the time.” They may believe themselves to be free of racism, but they can’t help thinking about humans in racial terms.""" # use this population as an example of strong genetic selection Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Yet I can’t help but ask myself whether Sivasubbu has a point. In 2018 scientists were amazed to discover that the nomadic Bajau people of Southeast Asia, who live almost entirely at sea, surviving by free-diving to hunt fish, had evolved an extraordinary ability to hold their breath underwater for long periods of time. The Bajau tend to have disproportionately larger spleens than nearby populations of farmers, which possibly helps them to keep up their blood oxygen levels when diving. There appears to be a measurable genetic difference between them and others, sharpened over many generations by living in an unusual environment. This raises a question we don’t like to ask out loud, but one that goes to the heart of the race debate. It is where race science began, with a belief that neglects history and jumps straight to the conclusion that the human zoo is like an animal zoo, each of us defined deep down by our stripes and spots. And it leads straight from the offensive observation made by James Watson on the preponderance of Jewish intellectuals and Indian Brahmins in academia. Might it be possible, as Watson implied, for a group of people, isolated enough by time, space, or culture, to adapt to their particular environment or circumstances in different ways? That they could evolve certain characteristics or abilities, that they might differ in their innate capacities?""" # turkheimer Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Eric Turkheimer, a psychologist at the University of Virginia, believes they will never find it. “I’ve been around for a while,” he tells me. “I’ve been in this field thirty years, and every single one of those thirty years, the biology people of one stripe or another have been saying, ‘I know we’re not there yet but in five years, as soon as this next piece of technology is nailed, as soon as we have brain scans, as soon as the genome project is completed . . .’ It’s always right around the corner. And the reason I don’t believe it is because I don’t believe that’s the way genetic causation works.”""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """So for Turkheimer, it beggars belief that anyone should assume that the cognitive gaps psychologists now claim to see between racial groups in the United States could be biological. The effects of slavery and centuries of racism, in all its forms, are hard to quantify, but black Americans have undoubtedly suffered in ways that have left their marks on generations. “Millions of people were kidnapped and thrown in the bottom of boats and taken across the ocean, and a third of them died on the trip, and then thrown on plantations and enslaved for hundreds of years. And after that, treated with total discrimination. And now, now their IQs are a little lower? And we’re saying it’s in their genes? My feeling about that is, give me a break.”""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """“A hundred years ago, people were quite convinced that Greek people had low IQs. You know, people from southern Europe? Whatever happened to that? Did somebody do a big scientific study and check those Greek genes? No, nobody ever did that. It’s just that time went on, Greek people overcame the disadvantages they faced a hundred years ago, and now they’re fine and nobody thinks about it anymore. And that’s the way these things proceed. All we can do is wait for the world to change and what seemed like hardwired differences melt away and human flexibility just overwhelms it.”""" # environmental point Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """We know from the seeds-planted-in-two-pots example that you can’t compare populations that live in different environments because the differences between them could easily be ascribed to nurture rather than nature. And there is no doubt that the social and economic circumstances of most black Americans remain significantly behind those of white Americans. The Institute for Women’s Policy Research in Washington, DC, found that in 2017 the median weekly wage taken home by a white man working full-time was 33 percent higher than that taken home by a black man in a comparable job. It was almost 50 percent higher than that of a black woman. The wealth gap—“wealth” refers to assets accumulated over generations—is even starker. Research in 2017 showed that of lower- and middle-income households, white families have four times as much wealth as black families. According to the most recent data, two-thirds of black children live in single-parent families, compared with a quarter of children in “non-Hispanic” white families. Across the board, black Americans are significantly worse off, from the level of police brutality they suffer to the quality of healthcare and schooling they receive.""" # plomin admission? Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """If bad intuition is the problem, it’s a problem we all have. Intelligence is just as multifaceted a cognitive trait as any other, but there’s a widespread assumption that it is very heavily influenced by inherited natural ability. In reality, parents’ IQ scores can only explain 15 percent of the variance in their own children, admits Plomin. Exceptionally smart parents are likely to have children a little less smart than themselves because of a phenomenon known as regression to the mean, which works to bring everyone in a population back closer to the average. Very bright children are likelier to emerge from parents in the middle of the intelligence range, where most people live. This was precisely the statistical fact that made eugenics impossible.""" # interpreting the flynn effect Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """In 1984 James Flynn, an intelligence researcher based at the University of Otago in New Zealand, raised a collective gasp in the scientific community when he announced that for nearly fifty years, since 1932, American IQs had been rising at a rate of about three points a decade. This finding could have been interpreted as people getting significantly smarter with each passing generation. In reality, as Flynn recognized, people had simply become much more skilled at taking IQ tests. This phenomenon is now known as the “Flynn effect.” Test takers were performing better not because they had evolved mental capacities beyond those of their grandparents but because their minds were being nurtured and sharpened now in ways they weren’t before, by better and more education, more intellectually demanding jobs and hobbies. “The period in question shows the radical malleability of IQ during a time of normal environmental change,” Flynn wrote at the end of his paper. Whatever link to intelligence is measured by IQ tests, it saw a benefit from the passage of time, from cultural change.""" # flynn 2012 Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Mankind Quarterly editor Gerhard Meisenberg had told me that some countries are too cognitively challenged to prosper, that essentially they are poor because they are stupid. His only evidence was historical IQ test scores. Should anyone need it, the Flynn effect is some of the best proof yet that he is wrong. It shows that environment matters in IQ test results, even at a population level. In a paper published in American Psychologist in 2012, Flynn, Turkheimer and other experts suggested that, at this rate, the apparent “IQ gap between developing and developed countries could close by the end of the 21st century.” Flynn has shown that the IQ performance of African Americans has risen faster than that of white Americans in the same time period. Between 1972 and 2002 they gained between seven and ten IQ points on “non-Hispanic whites.”""" # mixed race empirics Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """But if the biological portion of intelligence is rooted in a complex mixture of many thousands of genes, as biologists now agree it is, then it stands to reason that someone of mixed ancestry will have a mix of intelligence-linked genes from most if not all of their recent forebears. They wouldn’t inherit genes from those with just one skin shade and not another. And if that’s the case, and there are indeed innate, genetic racial differences in intelligence, then logic dictates that they should show up in people of mixed ancestry. If, as Rushton and Jensen implied, black people are biologically less smart, then shouldn’t black Americans with higher proportions of white European ancestry have slightly higher IQs? As far back as 1936, a study of exactly this kind was published by two American schoolteachers, Paul Witty and Martin Jenkins. They picked sixty-three of the highest-performing black children in the Chicago public school system, and compared their IQs with the proportion of white ancestry they were thought to have, according to information provided by their parents. The results revealed no gap at all. Having more white ancestry didn’t raise a child’s IQ. Indeed, the most remarkable student in the group, a girl with an IQ of 200, was reported to have no white ancestry whatsoever.""" # likely a reference to mtras? Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """A similar study was carried out much later, in 1986, this time looking at black children who had been adopted into middle-class black and white families. Children who had one white parent and one black had around the same IQs as children with two black parents. What did make a difference in performance, though, was the family they were adopted into. The black and mixed-ancestry children adopted into white families had IQs thirteen points higher than those adopted into black families.""" # examine empirics in uk Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """It is interesting how the debate over racial differences in IQ takes on a different flavor in other countries. The United States seems to be a special case. In the United Kingdom, the group of sixteen-year-olds that achieves the lowest grades in IQ tests is white working-class boys, followed by white working-class girls. Yet scientists haven’t leaped up to claim that low intelligence is rooted in whiteness. There’s no evidence that being white in the UK is a socially disadvantaging factor either, so by this logic it must be their socioeconomic status that’s the problem. In the decade to from 2006 to 2016, some of the greatest progress in educational attainment in the UK was seen among Bangladeshi, black African, and Chinese pupils. Girls have also historically tended to outperform boys, even though there is no average intelligence gap between the sexes. According to the founder of the Sutton Trust, which researches social mobility in the UK, it’s clear that culture is at play here. There are social influences where class, ethnicity, and gender intersect, and they all affect achievement.""" link: https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/11-to-16-years-old/gcse-results-attainment-8-for-children-aged-14-to-16-key-stage-4/latest # culture Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Biologists Marcus Feldman at Stanford University and Sohini Ramachandran at Brown University have suggested that the “missing heritability” that scientists have for so long struggled to find in our DNA when it comes to intelligence and other complex traits may in fact be explained by the magic ingredient of culture. New scientific tools help us understand our genomes better, but they have only reduced the proportion of intelligence scientists now believe to be heritable. Feldman and Ramachandran ask the obvious: Why do scientists not look elsewhere for explanations?""" # caste and intelligence Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """But we can change. As societies do shift and inequalities finally flatten, then we start to see our assumptions overturned. Stepping out of a rigid, unjust system can prove just how flexible we really are, just how far outside our genes our differences really may lie. In April 2018 a study was published that looked into the performance of Indian bureaucrats hired as result of affirmative action policies. The Indian Administrative Service, one of the largest and most powerful bureaucracies in the world, is also one of the toughest places to land a job. Of the 400,000 people who apply, 7,500 are invited to take a grueling exam, of which as few as 100 or so will be offered a position. Controversially, half of these vacancies are then reserved for marginalized castes, whose slightly lower scores would usually disqualify them. A common assumption has been that, even though they help redress social inequality, these quotas must have an impact on standards. If people have to be given a leg up to get in, then they surely can’t be as good? Some believe that those born into lower castes are innately incapable of doing these high-status jobs well anyway, regardless of their actual socioeconomic position. But when they investigated one particularly large sample project, American scholars Rikhil Bhavnani and Alexander Lee found no statistically significant difference in performance at all. “Improvements in diversity can be obtained without efficiency losses,” they concluded. Caste made no impact. Indeed, the lower-caste applicants who got through the usual way, without the quota, tended to perform somewhat better than average.""" # lahn Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Lahn moved up the academic ladder at lightning speed. In 1999 he was named one of MIT Technology Review’s thirty innovators under thirty. Then in 2005 he published a pair of studies in the prestigious journal Science drawing a connection between a couple of genes and changes in human brain size. He and his colleagues stated that as recently as 5,800 years ago (just a heartbeat in evolutionary time), one genetic variant that was linked to the brain among other things had emerged and swept through populations because of evolution by natural selection. Their implication was that it bestowed some kind of survival advantage on our species, making our brains bigger and smarter. At the same time, he noted that this particular variant happened to be more common among people living in Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and parts of East Asia but was curiously rare in Africa and South America. Lahn speculated that perhaps “the human brain is still undergoing rapid adaptive evolution”—although not for everyone in the same way.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """But there were problems with Lahn’s findings. Even if his gene variants did show up with different frequencies in certain populations, it didn’t necessarily mean that they provided those who had them with a cognitive advantage. They were known to be linked to organs other than the brain, so if the variants were selected for, maybe this was nothing to do with intelligence. The hypothesis needed more evidence. So, soon after the papers were published, the controversial Canadian psychologist John Philippe Rushton ran IQ tests on hundreds of people to see if possessing the gene variants really did make a difference. Try as he might (and we can reasonably assume that as the head of the Pioneer Fund at the time, he tried his hardest), he couldn’t find any evidence they did. They neither increased head circumference nor general mental ability. Before long, critics piled on across the board, undermining every one of Lahn’s scientific and historical assertions. For a start, the gene variant he described as emerging 5,800 years ago could actually have appeared within a time range as wide as 500 to 14,100 years ago, so it may not have coincided with any major historical events. The respected University of Pennsylvania geneticist Sarah Tishkoff, who had been a coauthor on his papers, distanced herself from the suggestion that the gene variants in question might be linked to advances in human culture, as Lahn had suggested. There were doubts, too, that Lahn’s gene variants had seen any recent selection pressure at all. Tishkoff tells me that scientists today universally recognize intelligence as a highly complex trait, not only influenced by many genes but also likely to have evolved during the far longer portion of human history when we were all hunter-gatherers, until around ten thousand years ago. “There have been common selection pressures for intelligence,” she explains. “People don’t survive if they’re not smart and able to communicate. There’s no reason to think that there would be differential selection in different populations. That doesn’t mean somebody won’t find something someday. Maybe it’s possible, but I don’t think there’s any evidence right now that supports those claims.”""" # racialism causes racism Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """In 2015 sociologists Carson Byrd at the University of Louisville and Victor Ray at the University of Tennessee investigated the belief of white Americans in genetic determinism. Studying responses to the General Social Survey, which is carried out every two years to provide a snapshot of public attitudes, Byrd tells me they found that “whites see racial difference in more biologically deterministic terms for blacks.” Yet they tend to view their own behavior as more socially determined. For instance, if a black person happens to be less smart than average, the whites attribute this to the black person’s having been born this way, whereas a white person’s smartness or lack thereof is seen more as a product of outside factors such as schooling and hard work. “So they give people a bit more leeway if they’re white,” he explains.""" # asian iq and work -- culture again Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """The belief that races have natural genetic propensities runs deep. One modern stereotype is that of superior Asian cognitive ability. Race researchers, including Richard Lynn and John Philippe Rushton, have looked at academic test results in the United States and speculated that the smartest people in the world must be the Chinese, the Japanese, and other East Asians. When the intelligence researcher James Flynn investigated this claim, publishing his findings in 1991, he found that in fact East Asians had the same average IQ as white Americans. Remarkably, though, Asian Americans still tended to score significantly higher than average on the SAT college admission tests. They were also more likely than average to end up in professional, managerial, and technical jobs. The edge they had was therefore a cultural one: their upbringing had endowed them with more supportive parents or maybe a stronger work ethic. They just tended to work harder than others.""" # race and medicine: diabetes and environment Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """He offers the example of diabetes, a disease believed to run in families. In the United Kingdom, it has been estimated that those of South Asian ancestry can be up to six times as likely as other ethnic groups to receive a type 2 diabetes diagnosis. But even if some people may be genetically slightly more predisposed to a disease, this isn’t the same as actually receiving a diagnosis. Type 2 diabetes is well known to be heavily associated with lifestyle, such as diet and exercise, as well as age. Waist size is one of the most reliable correlations of all, which is why diabetes is becoming common among the middle classes of South Asia. Diets have always been rich in sugar and fat, but now people there are wealthier and more sedentary, leading to obesity. If diabetes were purely genetic, the world wouldn’t be seeing a diabetes epidemic at this moment and not before. “Just to say that it runs in your family is ludicrous,” says Yuille. “And it is fatalistic because it inhibits you from participating in activities that reduce risk.” This is what it means to be human, says Gregory Radick, “to know what it is to be a person and a body, to understand yourself along with everything else around you as this product of interactions between what you’ve inherited and your surroundings.” Then you can begin to see that you “haven’t been dealt a hand that you just have to accept, but it’s within our gift to change these things and to make improvements. When you change the context, you can potentially change the effects.” Another example of a condition that scientists believed is heritable is schizophrenia, a mental disorder for which people of black Caribbean ancestry living in the United Kingdom receive disproportionately more diagnoses than white people, to the point where it has even been described as a “black disease.” In recent years there have been feverish hunts for the genes thought to be responsible. In 2014 an enormous study involving more than 37,000 cases finally did find a number of genetic regions that may be associated with schizophrenia. But it turned out that the presence of even the most likely of these variants elevated the risk of suffering from schizophrenia by just a quarter of 1 percent over the risk in the population as a whole. One particular gene variant turned up in 27 percent of patients but also in around 22 percent of healthy subjects. If schizophrenia is inherited, then its inheritance clearly can’t be a straightforward equation. Indeed, environmental risk factors, including living in an urban environment and being an immigrant, have already been shown to be at least as important to being diagnosed as any genetic links found so far. One study published in Schizophrenia Bulletin in 2012 found that patients with psychosis were almost three times as likely to have been exposed to adversity as children. That’s not to say the disorder doesn’t have a genetic component, but it does demonstrate that it can’t be quantified by looking at genes in isolation. If there are racial differences in diagnoses, it may be that life experiences, perhaps even the negative experiences resulting from racial discrimination, tip some people over the edge while rescuing others. This is without even considering that schizophrenia diagnosis itself is known to be notoriously subjective. And if race is a factor, it’s interesting to contrast the characterization of schizophrenia as a “black disease” with an observation by the Nazi scientist Otmar von Verschuer who worked at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute of Anthropology, Human Heredity, and Eugenics in Germany. A year before the outbreak of World War II he wrote, “Schizophrenia is strikingly more frequent among Jews. According to statistics from Polish insane asylums, among insane Jews schizophrenia is twice as common as among insane Poles.” Then he made a leap, twisting a medical observation into a racial generalization: “Since it is a matter of a hereditary disease . . . the more frequent occurrence of the disease in Jews must be viewed as a racial characteristic.” At that moment in time in that particular place, then, it wasn’t a black disease; it was a Jewish one.""" # race and medicine: hypertension Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """American doctors have for decades wondered whether the gaps they see could be due to some intrinsic difference between races. They used to ask whether hypertension might even be a uniquely different illness in black people, connected somehow to skin pigmentation or testosterone levels, or to the heat and humidity of Africa. But as time passed and population studies were done, it turned out that people living in Africa, especially rural Africans, have the lowest levels of hypertension in the world. “The people are skinny, they don’t eat much salt, they’re very active. There is no way that blood pressures cannot be low. It’s just not possible. They don’t have diabetes and they don’t have hypertension,” says Cooper, who has carried out blood pressure studies on tens of thousands of people across Africa, Europe, and the Americas. People in Nigeria and Ghana in West Africa, from where most black Americans can trace their ancestry, are known to have far lower blood pressures than in other countries. In fact, Cooper adds, topping the hypertension charts are Finland, Germany, and Russia. “They have terrific hypertension.” White North Americans and Canadians, meanwhile, tend to have lower levels than Europeans, including those in England, Spain, and Italy. Hypertension, then, isn’t a global problem for those with black skin; it’s a local one. We know that black Americans certainly do have higher rates of hypertension on average than white Americans, and the same appears to be the case in Britain with black and white Britons.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """For US physicians, the question has been, “Why do black Americans have higher rates of hypertension?” In the 1980s, attempting to neatly square the circle of low hypertension in black Africans with high hypertension in black Americans, a doctor named Clarence Grim came up with what became known as the “slavery hypertension hypothesis”—the theory, later championed by the Harvard economist Roland Fryer, that black Americans were naturally predisposed to retain more salt because of a rapid process of natural selection on the slave ships that brought their ancestors to the New World. It was an evocative story, giving the tragic brutality of slavery an extra poignancy. Sensitivity to salt, which had helped some through the brutal journey across the Atlantic, landed their unfortunate descendants in the twentieth century with the fatal scourge of hypertension. Western diets had damned them, and there was nothing they could do. The media loved it.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """The historian Philip Curtin, an expert on the African slave trade, argued that dehydration and salt depletion were not significant causes of death on slave ships. Neither, he noted, had there ever been a shortage of salt in West Africa to make people there particularly more salt retaining. If anything, Curtin concluded, the historical evidence ran counter to the hypothesis rather than supporting it. Richard Cooper adds that salt sensitivity, if it is seen to be higher in black Americans, is likely to be a product of being primed over a lifetime for all the factors that give them hypertension in the first place, particularly poor diet. This is why other demographic groups who have higher hypertension, including men and the elderly, are also more sensitive to salt.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """In 2009 researchers thought they had finally discovered the evidence they were looking for. A team led by scientists at the National Human Genome Research Institute in Bethesda, Maryland, took DNA samples from around a thousand people and discovered five genetic variants linked to blood pressure in black Americans. The effects were admittedly modest, but they seemed promising. [....] In 2012 another team of researchers, Clarence Grim among them, tried to replicate the 2009 study, this time with more than twice as many people. They failed. They just couldn’t see the same correlations. As scientists struggled to find the genetic evidence they thought must be out there, one team led by a researcher at the Harvard School of Public Health decided to look at factors other than race that might correlate with high blood pressure. They discovered that level of education, which often correlates with income level and social class, was a far better predictor of someone’s having hypertension than the person’s percentage of African ancestry. Each year of education was associated with an additional .5 millimeter decrease of mercury in blood pressure readings. A year later, a study in Cuba showed that being black or white there made no difference to average blood pressure or hypertension. Others pointed out that living in an urban environment was strongly associated with blood pressure rises, as was being an immigrant or adopting a westernized lifestyle.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """For all the studies that point to innate racial differences in health, the genetic evidence so far rarely tallies. Hypertension was just one case in point. Even enormous experiments looking at the genomes of thousands of people have turned up little. Although hundreds of gene variants linked to blood pressure have been found, collectively they explain just a percent or so of the variation we see, says Jay Kaufman. “We’ve had a decade of genome-wide association studies now, we’ve spent billions and billions of dollars, and we still are at the position that it looks like 97 percent of the mortality disparity between blacks and whites in the United States has nothing to do with genes.”""" # analogy to sickle-cell anemia Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Jay Kaufman and Richard Cooper worked together to dissect the statistics around sickle cell and found that, indeed, sickle cell trait prevalence in self-identified white Americans is only 250 per 100,000 members of the population, whereas in people who selfidentify as black it is between 6,500 and 7,000. On this basis, it seems sensible to screen only black infants. On the other hand, there are many more white Americans than black Americans. The odds of a black newborn having the sickle trait may be 6.7 percent, but the odds of any newborn having it are in the same order of magnitude, around 1.5 percent. This is why US states today screen newborns universally, regardless of ethnicity or race.""" # using race in hopes of biologically substantiating it Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Race was the entire premise upon which they were doing their research, but they were unable to tell her what it was. Their work instead seemed to rest upon a hope that if they just persisted, they would eventually come to find meaning in these categories. What they couldn’t yet define would then be defined. Somehow it would become real.""" # bidil backstory Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """Cohn’s original tests on BiDil had shown that the small number of black American patients who were included in the trial (just forty-nine people) seemed to respond better to the pill than other groups did. By 2004 the results of a new trial, this time carried out on around a thousand patients, were published in the New England Journal of Medicine; they confirmed that BiDil, when taken in addition to existing medication, reduced mortality rates by 43 percent. Given that the drug had already been shown to be effective in 1987, this outcome couldn’t have come as a complete surprise. But what was certainly different this time was that every single one of the patients tested was black. Cohn tells me that this was a practical decision. “We did not have adequate support to do a trial in the full population,” he admits. The cost of full-scale clinical trials can easily run into many millions of dollars. “So we determined that maybe the best way to go would be to study the most responsive population, which was a self-designated black population.” This didn’t mean that BiDil didn’t work in white patients, only that they didn’t have the funds needed to do larger trials that included everyone.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """For BiDil, this kind of number-crunching isn’t possible because the 2004 clinical trials included only self-identified black Americans and no white Americans. Statistical comparison just couldn’t be done. What we have instead is plenty of studies done over the decades on racial differences in response to common hypertension treatments. On the basis of these, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in the United Kingdom recommends treating black people with calcium-channel blockers as the drug of first choice, rather than ACE-inhibitors or other alternatives. Kaufman and Cooper looked through all the published papers that studied responses to blood pressure medication. Their aim was to figure out just how many individuals actually benefit from this racial distinction. They discovered that the perceived racial differences in drug response are in fact relatively small compared with differences within racial groups—exactly to be expected, given everything scientists know about the genetics of human variation. So although there might be statistically significant differences at a population level, this isn’t always useful when it comes to designing a treatment for any one individual patient. For example, they found that for ACE-inhibitors, which are given to white patients under the age of fifty-five in the United Kingdom but not to black patients, data suggest that for a hundred white people given the drug, forty-eight of them would fail to respond as hoped. Meanwhile if a hundred black people were given this drug they are usually denied, forty-one of them would benefit from it. In this case, they conclude, assigning treatment by race is about as useful as flipping a coin.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """I ask Jay Cohn, the eminent cardiologist who invented BiDil, whether his drug, the world’s first black pill, works well in patients who aren’t black. “Oh, of course it does! I use it all the time in white patients,” he replies. “Everyone responds.” Cohn has known this all along, of course, and he has always been honest about it. His intentions were never to be racist, he tells me with a laugh. And I believe him. His goal was simply to get the drug approved any way he could. Labeling it as a “black pill” was only ever driven by a commercial imperative. And in the end, this is business.""" Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """In January 2017 the independent news organization ProPublica revealed that Tom Price, a Republican congressman nominated by Donald Trump to become head of the Department of Health and Human Services, had persistently lobbied on behalf of Arbor Pharmaceuticals, which owns the marketing rights to BiDil, to remove a certain study from a government website. This study, carried out in 2009 by heart researchers at the University of Colorado on more than 76,000 people, showed that across all the racial and ethnic groups they studied, the combination of drugs that made up BiDil was not associated with significant reductions in mortality or hospitalization. The very first study on BiDil had looked at only 49 black Americans, and the second at just over a thousand. This study was far larger and therefore likely to be more significant. The United States has a federal agency, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, to help patients and doctors make informed choices about medical treatments. Yet according to the news report, one of Tom Price’s aides had emailed the agency “at least half a dozen times” to have the University of Colorado study removed. It turned out that Arbor Pharmaceuticals had previously donated to Price’s campaign fund. The month after the ProPublica news report came out, Price was confirmed as secretary of health and human services, although he resigned before the year was out, having been criticized for his use of expensive charter flights.""" # nih study guidelines and racial category misuse Saini 2019: TODOTODOTODO: """The way data is collected and organized is also a problem. Since 1993 the National Institutes of Health, the largest funder of medical research in the world, has had a general policy of requiring the clinical trials it supports to include women and minorities and also to collect data by race, across at least six categories. The purpose of this was never to look for differences between groups, but to ensure that medical studies include a broader spread of the population. As a demographic exercise, then, it made no difference that all black people, whether born in Africa or the United States, are today lumped by the National Institutes of Health into one general category, despite the prevalence of hypertension in their birth countries being completely different. It also shouldn’t matter that the “white” category includes those from the Middle East and North Africa, as well as Northern Europe. Or that immigrants from Russia, which has generally very high levels of hypertension, are in the same category as white Americans, who tend to have far lower hypertension. These were never considered to be genetically similar groups, just social and demographic ones. Collecting racial data like this was meant to be an exercise of ticking off boxes. “All this is a record-keeping function that comports with other federal categories and guidelines, which are social categories,” explains Dorothy Roberts, a law and sociology professor at the University of Pennsylvania. “They are the same categories as are used in the census to keep track of who is recruited into scientific studies. It’s not a requirement for researchers to design their studies in any particular way.” But that’s not the way the data always ends up being used.""" #####c ##### # # people's republic of walmart # #####o ##### # planning is extensive under capitalism: scope #####o # the bullwhip effect motivates significant vertical integration in capitalist firms Phillips and Rozworski 2019: scope of the bullwhip effect from consumer to producer: """Analysis performed in the 1990s assessed the scale of the problem to be considerable: a fluctuation at the customer end of just 5 percent (up or down) will be interpreted by other supply chain participants as a shift in demand of up to 40 percent.""" Phillips and Rozworski 2019: the bullwhip effect can be eliminated by vertically integrating the supply chain and its information: """But there’s a catch—a big one for those who defend the market as the optimal mechanism for allocation of resources: the bullwhip effect is, in principle, eliminated if all orders match demand perfectly for any period. And the greater the transparency of information throughout the supply chain, the closer this result comes to being achieved. Thus, planning, and above all trust, openness and cooperation along the supply chain—rather than competition—are fundamental to continuous replacement. This is not the “kumbaya” analysis of two socialist writers; even the most hard-hearted commerce researchers and company directors argue that a prerequisite of successful supply chain management is that all participants in the chain recognize that they all will gain more by cooperating as a trusting, information-sharing whole than they will as competitors. The seller, for example, is in effect telling the buyer how much he will buy. The retailer has to trust the supplier with restocking decisions. Manufacturers are responsible for managing inventories in Walmart’s warehouses. Walmart and its suppliers have to agree when promotions will happen and by how much, so that increased sales are recognized as an effect of a sale or marketing effort, and not necessarily as a big boost in demand. And all supply chain participants have to implement data-sharing technologies that allow for realtime flow of sales data, distribution center withdrawals and other logistical information so that everyone in the chain can rapidly make adjustments.""" Phillips and Rozworski 2019: a massive example: the Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) approach of Walmart: """Nevertheless, Walmart may just be the most dedicated follower of this “firmification” of supply chains. In the 1980s, the company began dealing directly with manufacturers to reduce the number of links within, and to more efficiently oversee, the supply chain. In 1995, Walmart further ramped up its cooperative supply chain approach under the moniker Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR), in which all nodes in the chain collaboratively synchronize their forecasts and activities. As technology has advanced, the company has used CPFR to further enhance supply chain cooperation, from being the first to implement company-wide use of universal product bar codes to its more troubled relationship with radio-frequency ID tagging. Its gargantuan, satellite-connected Retail Link database connects demand forecasts with suppliers and distributes real-time sales data from cash registers all along the supply chain. Analysts describe how stockage and manufacture is “pulled,” almost moment-to-moment, by the consumer, rather than “pushed” by the company onto shelves. All of this hints at how economic planning on a massive scale is being realized in practice with the assistance of technological advance, even as the wrangling of its infinities of data—according to Mises and his co-thinkers in the calculation debate—are supposed to be impossible to overcome.""" # planning constitutes the majority of activity in both capitalist and socialist economies Phillips and Rozworski 2019: Toyota's kanban system was one of the earliest systems, but few large firms have not incorporated cooperative planning into their supply chain: """Toyota [was] one of the first firms to implement intra- and inter-firm information visibility through its Walmartlike “Kanban” system, although the origin of this strategy dates as far back as the 1940s. While Walmart was pivotal in development of supply chain management, there are few large companies that have not copied its practices via some form of cross–supply chain visibility and planning, extending the planning that happens within a firm very widely throughout the capitalist “marketplace.”""" Phillips and Rozworski 2019: quote from Herbert Simon on how an external observer would note that most economic activity takes place within "green areas" (planned spaces inside firms), internally structured by "blue lines" (vertical authority over subordinates), and relatively little activity takes place via "red lines" (market competit/cooperation between firms): """Some years before the relatively obscure Marxist critic Frederic Jameson was fashioning utopian visions based on Walmart’s internal planning, a much more mainstream figure, economist Herbert Simon, had a not dissimilar realization. A polymath, winner of both the Swedish National Bank’s Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (widely but inaccurately described as the Nobel Prize in Economics) and the Turing Award (widely and comparatively more accurately described as the Nobel Prize for Computing), Simon in 1991 offered up the following thought experiment—one that might have seemed out of place to regular readers of the prestigious but orthodox Journal of Economic Perspectives: Suppose that [a mythical visitor from Mars] approaches the Earth from space, equipped with a telescope that reveals social structures. The firms reveal themselves, say, as solid green areas with faint interior contours marking out divisions and departments. Market transactions show as red lines connecting firms, forming a network in the spaces between them. Within firms (and perhaps even between them) the approaching visitor also sees pale blue lines, the lines of authority connecting bosses with various levels of workers. As our visitor looked more carefully at the scene beneath, it might see one of the green masses divide, as a firm divested itself of one of its divisions. Or it might see one green object gobble up another. At this distance, the departing golden parachutes would probably not be visible. No matter whether our visitor approached the United States or the Soviet Union, urban China or the European Community, the greater pan of the space below it would be within the green areas, for almost all of the inhabitants would be employees, hence inside the firm boundaries. Organizations would be the dominant feature of the landscape. A message sent back home, describing the scene, would speak of “large green areas interconnected by red lines.” It would not likely speak of “a network of red lines connecting green spots.” Simon intended his tale of visiting Martians as a light chiding of his fellow economists for ignoring how pervasive authoritarian power relationships and planning actually are under capitalism. Planning was in fact almost everywhere you looked, even though the discipline of economics had largely spun tales even more fantastical than UFOs visiting Earth: the fairy story of a harmonious and self-regulating market economy.""" #####c ##### # planning is extensive under capitalism: causes #####o # the coasian solution: islands of conscious power are motivated by transaction costs Phillips and Rozworski 2019: why isn't everything a market: """Ronald Coase went to the United States to do something that, up to this point, few scholars in the still-young discipline of economics had cared to do: investigate how the firm, the black box at the heart of the economy, actually operated. Coase’s question was a simple one, but one to which the economics he had been taught didn’t yet have an answer: “Why are there these ‘islands of conscious power’? … If production is regulated by price movements [and] production could be carried on without any organization at all, well might we ask, why is there any organization?” In other words, if the market is the magic bullet to all human interaction, then even the simplest work tasks—from “stock this shelf” to “format this spreadsheet”—could theoretically be governed by prices on markets rather than by managers giving orders. Somewhat naively, Coase asked, why isn’t everything bought and sold on its own little market?""" Phillips and Rozworski 2019: the answer: markets are costly to run and incur transaction costs: """Coase argued that companies do all of this apparent in-house imitation of the Soviet Union simply because the cost is too high of leaving up to markets every last coordinating decision. This was quite a clever explanation for the dissonance between copious corporate planning within and throughout a free market system. Economists are fond of the saying that “there is no free lunch.” Coase applied this to markets themselves. Markets introduce a whole web of what he called “transaction costs.” Writing a contract, setting up a market or finding the best price all take up resources and time. So long as the cost of doing all this was cheaper in house than on the market (and it was), it was only rational to keep it in house. So the “free” market isn’t really free either! Coase argued that it only makes sense that some decisions would be left to planning—a decision is made, and it is done. Planning is more efficient—though for Coase, only up to a certain point.""" Phillips and Rozworski 2019: firms are "islands of conscious power" (from internal firm planning) in an "ocean of unconscious cooperation" (from market competition): """The resulting text, “The Nature of the Firm”, features a quote from economist Dennis Robertson—a close collaborator of famed British macroeconomist John Maynard Keynes, and the originator of the concept of the “liquidity trap”—in which Robertson talks of the curiosity of the very existence of companies, unflatteringly describing them as “islands of conscious power in this ocean of unconscious cooperation, like lumps of butter coagulating in a pail of buttermilk.” But where Robertson had merely remarked upon the mystery, Coase explained it: “Those who object to economic planning on the grounds that the problem is solved by price movements can be answered by pointing out that there is planning within our economic system [that] is akin to what is normally called economic planning.”""" #####c ##### # langean market socialism #####o # markets as pre-computer equilibria calculators Phillips and Rozworski 2019: Lange considered markets to be a "computing device of the pre-elecronic age": https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013103166096670730/unknown.png """And it would only be a matter of time before computers came along that were powerful enough to make the process faster still. Lange spent his final years fascinated by computer science and cybernetics. In one of his last papers, he wrote: In one of his last papers, he wrote: “The market process with its cumbersome tatonnements appears oldfashioned. Indeed, it may be considered as a computing device of the pre-electronic age.”""" # oscar lange's neoclassical vision of market socialism for final products and planning for primary and intermediate products Phillips and Rozworski 2019: Lange solved Mises' calculation problem by incorporating capitalist calculation into : https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1013103715235926156/unknown.png """Using the equations of Léon Walras, one of the founders of the neoclassical school, Lange wrote a pamphlet in 1937 that imagined a planned economy, which imitated the market without these downsides. Lange’s fictional socialist planners would manipulate “shadow prices” on paper, rather than waiting for real prices to filter down from cash registers to production decisions. Like a UV light at a crime scene, socialist planning would make explicit all the math that only happened in the background in models of capitalism. Lange answered Mises’s challenge—that prices and markets were necessary to any economic rationality—by incorporating them into a model of market socialism.""" Phillips and Rozworski 2019: market equilibrium is "tatonnement": the slow groping toward an alignment between prices, supply, and demand: """The key was devising how planners would figure out which shadow prices are the right ones—those that ensure the socialist economy is making enough, but not too much, of everything. For this, Lange repurposed another idea from Walras: tatonnement. In French, Walras’s native tongue, the word means “groping toward.” Walras imagined that markets groped toward the right prices until they found the holy grail of economics: general equilibrium, where all markets are in balance and the amount supplied of every single good or service is exactly equal to the amount demanded. Add some more math, and mainstream economists will tell you that they’ve proven that everyone is also as happy as can be, living in the best of all possible worlds.""" Phillips and Rozworski 2019: Lange asks why we must wait for markets to grope toward equilibrium, when we can use consumer behavior to move even faster toward equilibrium: """Lange, however, figured planners could actually perform this tatonnement better than markets. Unlike in Otto Neurath’s natural economy (discussed in chapter 2), people under Lange’s market socialism would still go to (government-run) stores to buy consumer goods, signaling to planners what they wanted produced. Producers—all also publicly owned—would aim to produce what the planners translated from consumer demands as efficiently as possible, without needing to leave room for profit after covering costs. As the economy produced things and consumers bought them, central planners would run equations, figure out what there was too much of and what there was too little of, and adjust the “shadow prices” until everything was in sync. Even without all the correct information available at once, Lange’s expected his planners to grope toward equilibrium like markets did under capitalism, only better and faster.""" #####c ##### # failures of neoclassical economics #####o # summary of major failures of neoclassical era of economics Phillips and Rozworski 2019: three major failures of neoclassical theory: markets are costly (Coase), humans are imperfect (Stiglitz), equilibrium rarely occur and dynamism is key (Hayek): """Over time, as outlined in this chapter, many poked holes in these assumptions: Markets are costly, said Coase. Human beings are not infinitely powered, all-knowing calculators, argued Stiglitz. Even Hayek was right: capitalism is dynamic, not static, and rarely in the sort of equilibrium imagined by Lange and conventional economics.""" # on the misuse of the "invisible hand" and collusion Phillips and Rozworski 2019: the invisible hand features just once in Adam Smith, who also extensively discusses market power (such as collusion): """Adam Smith, the eighteenth-century Scot now considered the father of economics, is famous for introducing the “invisible hand” of the market. By this he meant no mystical force, but the idea that while individuals are making decisions whether to sell or to buy in the pursuit of self-interest, they are “led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of [their] intention”—the welfare of society realized through a market system. Smith’s hand often appears in economics textbooks as proof that markets produce, without any kind of plan, the best possible outcomes. However, Smith himself understood that real economies involve all manner of nonmarket interactions—even the phrase “invisible hand” makes but a single appearance in his Wealth of Nations. Smith, for example, assumed that factory owners would scheme together—that is, plan —to keep wages low. Later economists would concentrate only on the first half of his story: that the market system produces order out of chaos, all on its own.""" # on misuse of "tragedy of the commons" and Elinor Ostrom Phillips and Rozworski 2019: tragedy of the commons is a real phenomenon, but it did not occur in England -- where the commons was used fairly effectively as pasture land for hundreds of years, and was forcibly enclosed by aristocrats and capitalists: """In response to any mention of durable human cooperation that is not mediated by markets, in particular by the undisguised incentives provided by the labor market—at their most basic, work or starve—defenders of the market system often bring up the notion of the “tragedy of the commons.” The phrase, coined by ecologist Garrett Hardin in a 1968 article in the journal Science, refers to a shared resource inevitably depleted through overuse by individuals acting in their self-interest. The prototypical commons employed to illustrate this tragedy is a plot of open, shared pastureland in a village. If farmers only look out for the cows that are theirs, rather than the entire pasture, each will allow their cows to overgraze, and the land shared in common will quickly turn to dust. Over the course of her long career, Elinor Ostrom, the only woman to win the “not really a Nobel” prize in economics in its fifty-year existence, did much to debunk this crude story. She compiled evidence of groups stewarding common resources and found that in many cases, the commons not only survived but thrived. Rather than being overrun by unthinking selfinterest, shared resources were in reality often governed by complex sets of social rules established over time. Ostrom studied actual shared pasture land in Swiss alpine villages and found it had been preserved for common use for over 500 years. Based on this and other case studies, Ostrom went on to identify conditions that helped protect common resources—among them, participation in decision making by users of the resources, the capacity for monitoring usage, meaningful social sanctions and conflict-resolution mechanisms.""" #####c ##### # hayekian critique of neoclassical economics ##### # on hayek Phillips and Rozworski 2019: Hayek argued that markets do not just achieve equilibrium, they also produce a unique form of knowledge by decentralizing decisionmaking: """[Hayek] rejected Lange’s case outright. Hayek argued that markets—incomplete, permanently off tilt, full of fallible humans—do not just aggregate and calculate information. Markets are producers of information and knowledge. Even if Lange’s market socialism allowed planners to calculate better and faster than did free markets, planning would ultimately still be impossible because planners would not have the information created by market interactions to use in their calculations. Buying and selling may not generate technical and scientific knowledge, but it still creates all that knowledge of “time and place” that is instrumental to making efficient production and distribution decisions. Hayek argued that the problem for planners was not in the “how”—the equations to use—but in the “what”—the data that goes into the equations. The copious information planners need is unavailable before markets work their magic. Decentralization creates coordination: only the market can bring together the information that is normally isolated in the heads of different individuals.""" Phillips and Rozworski 2019: technological and informational limits of Hayekian critiques of information and decentralization: """Hayek, however, was writing before the advent of “big data,” which is testing the limits of just how much granular information can be collected. It seems that he also wrote in blissful ignorance of Coase, who had shown just how flimsy the veneer of decentralized decision making really is, even under capitalist markets.""" # irony of hayekian decentralization Phillips and Rozworski 2019: Hayek's support for decentralization, which could be radically democratic, is really just freedom for money and information: """If Hayek sounds like a radical democrat, the affinity is purely superficial. What he is after is not so much freedom for people, but rather freedom for information and money—those two central lubricants of market activity. Human beings, after all, are not capable of democratically coordinating complex systems, so they must therefore submit themselves to the dictates of the market, onboarding its anonymous decisions no matter how profound the social costs it creates. The argument against planning clearly hinges on Hayek’s ideological commitments.""" # on prices and innovation Phillips and Rozworski 2019: the form and incentives of innovation are different under capitalism than they would be under a central planning system: """Hayek’s second argument, that prices are also indispensable to the discovery of new information, has recently been unpacked by Greek socialist economists John Milios, Dimitrios Sotiropoulos and Spyros Lapatsioras. The trio writes: With the establishment of central planning, there will not be a “discovery process” on the part of managers, hence no proper capitalist behavior and therefore no efficiency in capitalist terms. In the end, every serious restriction of capital markets threatens the reproduction of the capitalist spirit … The unleashing of finance not only channels savings to investment in a particular way, but it also sets up a particular form of organization in capitalist society. In short, Hayek may be right that prices aid in discovery under capitalism; however, that insight cannot be generalized to every socioeconomic system, including that which might supersede capitalism.""" Milios Sotiropoulos Lapatsioras 2015: A political economy of contemporary capitalism and its crisis: #####c ##### # post-70s behavioral economics revolution move from neoclassical economics #####o # imperfections and market failures: economists don't choose institutional design and democracy, but better competitive market design Phillips and Rozworski 2019: when market failure is endemic, neoclassical economists chose to work toward better institution design: """Beyond individual markets, Stiglitz and others were asking a bigger question: What if the entire economy was something of a used car dealership? Once enough examples of failing markets accumulate, the entire system’s efficiency and justice can be called into doubt. In short, the economics of information ultimately challenges the argument that capitalism, despite its flaws, is the best of all possible worlds. However, rather than seeing information problems as a reason to explore collective, democratic decision-making alternatives that could bring people and information together, economists went to work making market theory work in spite of humanity’s imperfections. Since the ’70s, the economics of information has generated ever more ingenious ideas for incentivizing people or organizations to do things—all, of course, within the bounds of capitalist markets.""" # mechanism design as a form of planning Phillips and Rozworski 2019: mechanism design is one solution to deeply imperfect markets; another is to socialize those markets, which avoids the corporate power concerns of concentrated market power: """Mechanism design is one such idea. In this obscure corner of economics, economists drum up—elegant, but often mathematically complex—means to compel people or companies to reveal information that they would otherwise keep secret. A new auction format created by economists in the early 1990s to help the US government sell off cell phone frequencies to telecommunications firms is an exemplary case. The auction had rules designed to force companies to reveal how much the rights to frequencies were really worth to them—lying would see them lose the rights to competitors. The design netted the government hundreds of millions of dollars more than expected and is now commonplace around the world. Mechanism design is a kind of planning, although a very indirect one. Economic decision making of any kind—whether outright planning or a “designed” market—needs to gather the bits and pieces of information spread between people. But information problems don’t preclude other ways of doing things. Rather than creating a complex process that ultimately benefits a few big players, governments today could choose to run a public cell phone utility, which would constitute one more step on the way to greater socialization. As things stand, however, governments make some money on the auction, but give up control over a valuable resource. This also leaves behind a market dominated by a few big players who can charge famously high prices backed by shoddy customer service.""" #####c ##### # modern forms of information sharing and planning #####o # on amazon reviews and planning Phillips and Rozworski 2019: our recommendations and reviews are used to drive further profits, rather than maximize consumer well-being; these goals may often align, but may disalign dramatically; and our unpaid labor is the mechanism for all of it: """In our irrational system, the ultimate purpose of product recommendations is to drive sales and profits for Amazon. Data scientists have found that rather than high numbers of customer-submitted reviews, which have little impact, it is recommendations that boost Amazon’s sales. Recommendations help sell not only less popular niche items—when it’s hard to dig up information, even just a recommendation can be enough to sway us—and bestsellers that constantly pop up when we’re browsing. Zooming out beyond Amazon’s corporate interests, the recommendations system is a way of managing and integrating great swaths of social labor. Many of us freely, without expectation of any reward, spend time and energy writing reviews and giving out stars to products or even just mindlessly browsing on Amazon and other technology platforms. This is work that we and others benefit from. Even over the course of one day, we may repeatedly engage in unpaid labor to rate everything from the relatively innocuous, such as call quality on Skype, to the more serious, such as posts, comments and links on Facebook and Twitter, to the potentially very impactful on individual lives, such as the “quality” of Uber drivers. Under capitalism, the social labor of many is transformed into profit for the few: the filtering may be “collaborative,” but the interests it serves are competitive and very private.""" # on bank lending and planning Phillips and Rozworski 2019: banks choose where to invest profit, and by doing so control economic activity: """Economist J. W. Mason, who has developed the idea of finance as planner in a series of articles in Jacobin magazine, writes: “Surplus is allocated by banks and other financial institutions, whose activities are coordinated by planners, not markets … Banks are, in Schumpeter’s phrase, the private equivalents of Gosplan. Their lending decisions determine what new projects will get a share of society’s resources.”""" # on index fund control and planning Phillips and Rozworski 2019: finance markets choose where to invest profit, and by doing so control economic activity: """This unseemly situation led Bloomberg business columnist Matt Levine to ask, in the title of a remarkable 2016 article, “Are Index Funds Communist?” Levine imagines a slow transition from today’s index funds, which use simple investing strategies, through a future where investing algorithms become better and better, until “in the long run, financial markets will tend toward perfect knowledge, a sort of central planning—by the Best Capital Allocating Robot.” For him, capitalism may end up creating its own gravediggers—except they will be algorithms, not workers.""" #####c ##### # transitional demands and moving toward socialism #####o # on taxation and reform as planning Phillips and Rozworski 2019: we should explicitly embrace the planning hidden behind corporate walls: """As for those who hold financial power themselves, what better way to disempower them than directly, through proposals to tax away large concentrations of wealth or diminish the role of shareholders and the stock market over the corporate sector—ultimately empowering the workers that produce the goods and services, and the communities that use them. All of these reforms serve to make planning explicit and public, rather than hidden and private as it is today. To quote J. W. Mason once more, A society that truly subjected itself to the logic of market exchange would tear itself to pieces, but the conscious planning that confines market outcomes within tolerable bounds has to be hidden from view because if the role of planning was acknowledged, it would undermine the idea of markets as natural and spontaneous and demonstrate the possibility of conscious planning toward other ends.""" # on publicly operated credit indices and payment systems Phillips and Rozworski 2019: we should demand public credit ratings and public payment agencies, rather than letting the cut of transactions go to private firms: """What kinds of transitional demands could such forces make to hasten future socialization? There are relatively small, but meaningful, steps such as creating a public payments system—to ensure that every time you tap your credit or debit card, it is not a private company getting a cut and setting the terms—or a public credit rating agency—to displace the likes of Moody’s or Standard & Poor’s, which play a key role in determining how investment is distributed among competing projects, most recently helping divert a sizeable chunk of it into junk mortgages that nearly crashed the world economy.""" # the importance of having an alternative before enacting socialism Phillips and Rozworski 2019: we must know what we plan to do, or we will fail, as Lenin acknowledged near his death: """“We have knowledge of socialism, but as for knowledge of organization on a scale of millions, knowledge of the organization and distribution—that we have not. This the old Bolshevik leaders did not teach us,” Lenin wrote in 1923 as the scale of the challenge began to reveal itself. “Nothing has been written about this yet in Bolshevik textbooks, and there is nothing in Menshevik textbooks either.” Indeed, we might even say that the deterioration of the situation in the early Soviet Union was at least in part due to these gaps in classical Marxism upon which the architects of the new system depended.""" #####c ##### # on the foundation and privatization of the nhs #####o # foundation Phillips and Rozworski 2019: the socialization of medicine aligned people's incentives more closely with those of patients: """Pushed to act to contain such broader demands and the spread of socialist ideas, the UK government created, in 1911, a limited national insurance scheme. This first attempt at publicly funded healthcare, however, was far from comprehensive: even after two decades, National Insurance covered just 43 percent of the population, the majority of them working-age men. [....] Both fears were warranted. As they expanded, worker-run schemes did indeed start to challenge the absolute power of doctors over medical care. Worker societies did not so much target individual clinical decisions— rather, they increasingly wanted a say in planning, in how resources were allocated. Would new money go into building clinics or hiring nurses—or into savings accounts held by doctors? The most forward-thinking societies advocated for doctors to become salaried workers rather than contractors— people thus invested in the expansion of medical practice, rather than that of personal fortunes. As with any other sector, medicine has its own logistic specificities. Decisions have to be made about where clinics are located, how to divide tasks between nurses and doctors, which afflictions should be prioritized, and so on. To have a say over these things goes beyond simple redistribution of resources; rather, British workers were demanding that an entire sector of the economy be democratized.""" # privatization Phillips and Rozworski 2019: the less-privatized Scottish NHS generally performs equally or better than its more-privatized English-Welsh counterpart: """In the years immediately following this overhaul, over 10 percent of total NHS spending already went to for-profit providers. [....] Market reforms introduced plenty of new costs. Ostensibly about slimming down government bureaucracy, the dense jungle of contracts between providers and purchasers in fact required armies of new bureaucrats. Even by 1994, three years into the internal market, the NHS had hired 10,000 new managers. While administration costs made up just 5 percent of the total NHS budget in the 1980s, by 2005 they had nearly tripled, to 14 percent of the total. On these simple measures, planning was several times as efficient as the market. A 2014 report from the UK’s Center for Health and the Public Interest put the cost of just running the internal market itself at an estimated £4.5 billion per year—enough to pay for dozens of new hospitals. [....] Have all of these additional costs created new benefits? At best, it’s hard to tell. Every patient comes into treatment with their own personal history, including all the social determinants of health, making comparison very difficult. On an aggregate level, recall that as England moved further along the market path, Scotland decided in the late 1990s to return to a more public NHS, where patients are not just consumers of healthcare but owners of the healthcare service itself. Since then, the Scottish NHS has improved more rapidly on important indicators, such as wait time for a hospital bed or an ambulance. On other measures like life expectancy, the gap between relatively poorer Scotland and its southern cousin remains steady, as well.""" #####c #####c ##### # # after capitalism reading notes TODO # #####o Schweickart 2011: mere critique of capitalism is insufficient, a successor system is necessary: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864202322557272104/unknown.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/864202720764493924/unknown.png But there was a problem. Marx’s critique of capitalism, which acknowledges its accomplishments while laying bare its exploitative underpinnings and irrational dynamic, remains just that: critique. Marx offers no model for an alternative economic order, no “recipes for cookshops of the future,” in his disdainful phrase. [....] [H]istorical materialism claims that capitalism, the dominant economic system of Marx’s day and our own, will be superseded by a more rational order. This successor system has been traditionally called “socialism,” and has been viewed as itself a stage on the way to a higher “communism.” But as anyone who has studied Marx knows, there is a blank page at precisely this point in his theory. Marx says almost nothing as to what this “socialism” would look like. Virtually no attention is given to the institutional structures that are to replace those of capitalism and thus define an economic order genuinely superior to capitalism. Schweickart 2011: like progressive christians, we should be inspired by past socialist movements but not seek to defend their every action: The counterproject must keep the tradition alive without denying the shortcomings and failures—sometimes horrific—of individuals, parties, and governments that have called themselves socialist or communist. This is not so strange. Consider the parallel with Christianity. Progressive Christians draw strength and inspiration from the Christian tradition without denying the inquisitions, religious wars, corruption, and abuse that are also a part of Christianity’s history. There are values, and lives committed to those values, in both traditions (essentially the same values—as liberation theologians have demonstrated) that continue to inspire. Schweickart 2011: socialists should not reject "liberal values" merely because they were liberal: The counterproject, as it develops, will have to be a dialectical socialism, not a nihilistic socialism. 12 Its aim is not to negate the existing order, wipe everything out and start over, but to create a new order that preserves what is good in the present while mitigating its irrationality and evil. The counter-project will not be what Marx decried as “crude communism,” a communism animated by envy, which wants to level down and destroy whatever cannot be enjoyed by all. 13 It will be a project that builds on the material and cultural accomplishments of past centuries. It will embrace the political ideals of liberty, democracy, and the rule of law. It will endorse and promote such values as generosity, solidarity, and human creativity, and also self-discipline, personal responsibility, and hard work. It will not sneer at any of these ideals or values as “bourgeois.” They will be regarded as indispensable to the construction of a new and better world. #####c ##### # # lenin state and revolution reading notes TODO # #####o Lenin 1917: on democracy, democracy is socialism: """Democracy means equality. The great significance of the proletariat's struggle for equality and of equality as a slogan will be clear if we correctly interpret it as meaning the abolition of classes. But democracy means only formal equality. And as soon as equality is achieved for all members of society in relation to ownership of the means of production, that is, equality of labor and wages, humanity will inevitably be confronted with the question of advancing further from formal equality to actual equality, i.e., to the operation of the rule "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs". By what stages, by means of what practical measures humanity will proceed to this supreme aim we do not and cannot know. But it is important to realize how infinitely mendacious is the ordinary bourgeois conception of socialism as something lifeless, rigid, fixed once and for all, whereas in reality only socialism will be the beginning of a rapid, genuine, truly mass forward movement, embracing first the majority and then the whole of the population, in all spheres of public and private life. Democracy is of enormous importance to the working class in its struggle against the capitalists for its emancipation. But democracy is by no means a boundary not to be overstepped; it is only one of the stages on the road from feudalism to capitalism, and from capitalism to communism. Democracy is a form of the state, it represents, on the one hand, the organized, systematic use of force against persons; but, on the other hand, it signifies the formal recognition of equality of citizens, the equal right of all to determine the structure of, and to administer, the state. This, in turn, results in the fact that, at a certain stage in the development of democracy, it first welds together the class that wages a revolutionary struggle against capitalism--the proletariat, and enables it to crush, smash to atoms, wipe off the face of the earth the bourgeois, even the republican-bourgeois, state machine, the standing army, the police and the bureaucracy and to substitute for them a more democratic state machine, but a state machine nevertheless, in the shape of armed workers who proceed to form a militia involving the entire population. Here "quantity turns into quality": such a degree of democracy implies overstepping the boundaries of bourgeois society and beginning its socialist reorganization. If really all take part in the administration of the state, capitalism cannot retain its hold.""" Lenin 1917: on the transition from capitalism to socialism: """The development of capitalism, in turn, creates the preconditions that enable really “all” to take part in the administration of the state. Some of these preconditions are: universal literacy, which has already been achieved in a number of the most advanced capitalist countries, then the "training and disciplining" of millions of workers by the huge, complex, socialized apparatus of the postal service, railways, big factories, large-scale commerce, banking, etc., etc. Given these economic preconditions, it is quite possible, after the overthrow of the capitalists and the bureaucrats, to proceed immediately, overnight, to replace them in the control over production and distribution, in the work of keeping account of labor and products, by the armed workers, by the whole of the armed population. (The question of control and accounting should not be confused with the question of the scientifically trained staff of engineers, agronomists, and so on. These gentlemen are working today in obedience to the wishes of the capitalists and will work even better tomorrow in obedience to the wishes of the armed workers.) Accounting and control--that is mainly what is needed for the "smooth working", for the proper functioning, of the first phase of communist society. All citizens are transformed into hired employees of the state, which consists of the armed workers. All citizens becomes employees and workers of a single countrywide state “syndicate”. All that is required is that they should work equally, do their proper share of work, and get equal pay; the accounting and control necessary for this have been simplified by capitalism to the utmost and reduced to the extraordinarily simple operations--which any literate person can perform--of supervising and recording, knowledge of the four rules of arithmetic, and issuing appropriate receipts.""" Lenin 1917: on the transition from socialism to communism: """When the majority of the people begin independently and everywhere to keep such accounts and exercise such control over the capitalists (now converted into employees) and over the intellectual gentry who preserve their capitalist habits, this control will really become universal, general, and popular; and there will be no getting away from it, there will be "nowhere to go". The whole of society will have become a single office and a single factory, with equality of labor and pay. But this “factory” discipline, which the proletariat, after defeating the capitalists, after overthrowing the exploiters, will extend to the whole of society, is by no means our ideal, or our ultimate goal. It is only a necessary step for thoroughly cleansing society of all the infamies and abominations of capitalist exploitation, and for further progress. From the moment all members of society, or at least the vast majority, have learned to administer the state themselves, have taken this work into their own hands, have organized control over the insignificant capitalist minority, over the gentry who wish to preserve their capitalist habits and over the workers who have been thoroughly corrupted by capitalism--from this moment the need for government of any kind begins to disappear altogether. The more complete the democracy, the nearer the moment when it becomes unnecessary. The more democratic the “state” which consists of the armed workers, and which is "no longer a state in the proper sense of the word", the more rapidly every form of state begins to wither away. For when all have learned to administer and actually to independently administer social production, independently keep accounts and exercise control over the parasites, the sons of the wealthy, the swindlers and other "guardians of capitalist traditions", the escape from this popular accounting and control will inevitably become so incredibly difficult, such a rare exception, and will probably be accompanied by such swift and severe punishment (for the armed workers are practical men and not sentimental intellectuals, and they scarcely allow anyone to trifle with them), that the necessity of observing the simple, fundamental rules of the community will very soon become a habit. Then the door will be thrown wide open for the transition from the first phase of communist society to its higher phase, and with it to the complete withering away of the state.""" #####c #####c ##### # # listening notes # #####o ##### # listening notes: eric blanc on revolutionary social democracy #####o # summary of blanc's position Blanc 2022: """I wanna first summarize some of the lessons that we on the panel tonight agree on: First, and maybe most importantly, the Russian Revolution showed that cpaitalism isn't eternal, it showed that working people can overthrow the current system and start building a society that establishes democracy in the economy and not just in politics. Second, it shows that the strategy to get to that goal, not a strategic alliance with liberals or capitalists. Third, to overthrow capitalism, workers need their own party, and Marxists have a central role to play in making that party effective. Finally, the class struggle is international, and the struggle of workers in every country is deeply interlinked.""" # importance of democracy Blanc 2022: workers conquered democracy and it's good politics to defend that victory: """Lenin's claim that "the democratic republic is the best possible shell for capitalism", which is often quoted by Leninists, severely underestimates the extent to which democratic parliaments were won by and for working people. What democracy we have is a conquest to be defended and expanded. This conception of Lenin that the democratic republic undercuts our ability to make the case to working people that it's always the right, not the left, that wants to undermine universal suffrage and democratically elected parliaments, which we've seen most recently through the rise of Trumpism and the January 6 insurrection.""" # first major flaw of leninism: the russian revolution cannot be overgeneralized Blanc 2022: fundamental flaw of Leninism: assume that revolutionary strategies in autocratic Russia can be generalized to capitalist democracies: """Those in the Leninist tradition, including organizations like Socialist Alternative, tend to overgeneralize strategy from the Russian Revolution to the contexts of capitalist democracies. The fundamental flaw of Leninism, in my view, and this comes from the research I did and organizing experience as well, is to assume that a form of revolution and a form of party that was appropriate to autocratic Russia can more or less be transplanted to capitalist countries where civil liberties and democratic institutions are significantly more robust, even if they don't go as far as we'd like. More specifcially, I think it's wrong to claim that the Revolution illustrates the universal validity of one, a new conception of revolution as laid out in Lenin's "State and Revolution", according to which the entire existing state overthrown everywhere through a mass uprising to set up council republics, and two, it supposedly showed the necessity for a new form of revolutionary party, one committed to democratic centralism, and a revolutionary Leninist program. By new, here, I mean that this is a different form of party and revolution than the position long articulated by the left of the 2nd International, most notably by Karl Kautsky. The founding myth of Leninism, I think I've shown in the book, is that supposedly the secret to the success of the Bolsheviks in 1917 was that they broke from Kautsky's strategy, known at the time as "revolutionary social democracy", and that supposedly all other socialists should follow them in doing the same. But as I've shown in the book, this is just historically wrong, and it's politically flawed. Unlike in Germany, where Kautsky's revolutionary theories were ignored by the party leadership, in autocratic Russia, this theory was implemented -- not only by the Bolsheviks, but by all the other nationalities that led working people to conquer power in 1917 and 1918, including in Finland. This revolutionary-social-democratic strategy was premised on the correct understanding that class struggle and revolutions would develop qualitatively different in democratic and autocratic contexts. It was precisely this understanding, this distinction between politics in autocratic and democratic capitalist countries, that Leninists tended to drop from 1918 onward, or at least minimize excessively.""" Blanc 2022: workers in capitalist democracies choose to use democracy to meet their demands, which is why these workers have not supported revolution: """According to Leninists, the Russian Revolution shows that socialists should seek to overthrow the entire existing state, even when a democratically elected parliament exists. The problem with this claim is that it doesn't actually follow in the Russian Revolution! [Leninists] say taht the Russian Revolution proves this, but there was no democratically elected parliament to be overthrown in Russia to be overthrown. Precisely because of that, soviets (or councils) were able to fill the vacuum. It's hard to generalize from the Russian experience (at least, not Finland) to countries where such a democratic parliament does exist. All the experience during and since 1917 shows that, where a democratic parliament *does* exist, workers will try to use it to meet their demands, including for socialist transformation. That's the basic reason why Leninist revolution has never come close to taking place in a capitalist democracy. We should acknowledge that and adjust accordingly. One of the underlying flaws in Leninism, then, is its assumption that workers in all countries of the world will sooner or later behave as radically as workers did in Russia in 1917. And honestly, I really wish that it turned out to be true! That would be fantastic, if it turned out to be true, it hasn't turned out to be true. We should acknowledge that and orient to the working class as it is, not as we wish it to be. If we do that, it will help us avoid a tendency of Leninists and others to excessively blame bad leadership -- which is often a real problem! -- for holding back the revolutionary instincts of the masses. There's a lot more going on for what it's gonna take to overthrow capitalism in a different context.""" Blanc 2022: capitalism survives because capitalists are powerful, not because socialists have bad leadership or the wrong socialist line: """The main reason that capitalism hasn't been overthrown yet isn't that socialists have strayed from the correct socialist line. The main reason is that capitalists are very powerful, and that most workers in capitalist democracies have oriented to trying to make the state work for them, rather than trying to overthrow it. Of course, should socialists win a majority through parliamentary means, and begin to push for socialist transformation, capitalists will resist this with all means available for their disposal. There's reason to expect that the capitalist minority will peacefully submit to the minority. But it does not follow from this that universal suffrage are necessarily a form of capitalist rule, as Leninists claim. It just means that you need to leverage legitimacy structures of winning a democratic election in order to defeat the anti-democratic capitalist minority, and the undemocratic structures of the state, like the police and the army. This is precisely what happened in Finland, which had a sustained political freedom tradition and universal suffrage. There, socialists won a majority in 1916, they proceeded to try to implement their program in 1917, then when the capitalists undemocratically resisted, Finnish socialists led workers to power in 1918 to fulfill their mandate. To be clear, my argument isn't that we should try to copy Kautsky today, or that Finland is some sort of new universal model to be replicated. I think it's more narrow: Finland does show that revolutionary social democratic strategy *could* guide workers to power and that the class struggle -- and this is a big point -- tends to develop very differently where there's political freedom and where real parliaments exist, as opposed to contexts where they don't.""" # second major flaw of leninism: organizational strategy Blanc 2022: """The second major flaw in Leninism is its claim that the Russian Revolution demonstrated the universal validity of a new party model, based on democratic centralism, strict organizational separation from socialists who didn't adhere to Lenin's new conception of state and revolution. To summarize a big history: The story [of the Russian revolution] severely exaggerates the organizational coherence and programmatic unity of the Bolshevik. In practice, this conception often tends to lead to sectarianism. Because Bolsheviks operated in an autocratic context, in which top leaders have to live abroad, and in which local committes would constantly get broken up by police, the actual practices of the Bolsheviks and other revolutionaries in Imperial Russia were extremely decentralized and fluid -- way more than any Leninist organization since 1917. The historical record just doesn't correspond *at all* to the image of a tight, united party that Leninists have tried to replicate. Moreover, the secret sauce of the Bolsheviks, and the other successful Marxists in the [Russian] Empire, like the Latvians or the Finns or others, was that they operated as relatively loose, fluid, and organic currents within a broader multi-[tendency] big tent party. Though exiled leaders tended to squabble a lot, Bolshevik on the ground, cadre on the ground, were always focused on building a leading that broader party as good faith partners with other currents. They weren't primarily just intervening in this party just to build their own organization. Because Leninists since 1918 through the present have tended to excesssively wall themselves off organizationally form other socialist currents, and because they insist that only their particular conception of state and revolution is viable, their organizations have frequently devolved into sects -- sometimes bigger, sometimes smaller. We should move away from that organizational conception, and our chances at building a majoritarian socialist movement depend on acknowledging that because there's never been a successful socialist revolution in a capitalist democracy, nobody can claim to have a precise strategic model of the way forward. We should be skeptical of claims that that model exists and just needs to be replicated.""" #####c #####c #####c ##### # # # GA Cohen reading notes # # #####o ##### # Works covered #####o Cohen 1995: *Self-Ownership, Freedom and Equality*: Cohen critiques Nozick's argument that liberty requires private property and capitalism; Cohen flips the argument of self-ownership toward socialism by emphasizing positive freedoms, which require social support; Cohen argues that the standard Marxian exploitation argument accidentally supports a less equality-based vision of self-ownership, and instead we should favor an egalitarian morality: Self-Ownership, Freedom and Equality """In this book G. A. Cohen examines the libertarian principle of self-ownership, which says that each person belongs to himself and therefore owes no service or product to anyone else. This principle is used to defend capitalist inequality, which is said to reflect each person's freedom to do as he wishes with himself. The author argues that self-ownership cannot deliver the freedom it promises to secure. He thereby undermines the idea that lovers of freedom should embrace capitalism and the inequality that comes with it. He goes on to show that the standard Marxist condemnation of exploitation implies an endorsement of self-ownership, since, in the Marxist conception, the employer steals from the worker what should belong to her, because she produced it. Thereby a deeply inegalitarian notion has penetrated what is in aspiration an egalitarian theory. Purging that notion from socialist thought, he argues, enables construction of a more consistent egalitarianism.""" ^ includes article: Cohen 1977: "Robert Nozick and Wilt Chamberlain: How Patterns Preserve Liberty": Robert Nozick and Wilt Chamberlain: How Patterns Preserve Liberty ^ includes article: Cohen 1994: "Equality as Fact and as Norm: Reflections on the (partial) Demise of Marxism": Equality as Fact and as Norm: Reflections on the (partial) Demise of Marxism # articles included but not yet reviewed independently 3: 'Self-Ownership, World-Ownership, and Equality', in Frank Lucash (ed.), Justice and Equality Here and Now, 1986. Copyright 1986 by Cornell University Press. 4: 'Self-Ownership, World-Ownership, and Equality: Part II', in Social Philosophy and Policy, 3, Issue 2 (Spring 1986). Copyright 1986 by Social Philosophy and Policy. 5: 'Self-Ownership, Communism, and Equality', in Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, supp. vol. 64, 1990. Copyright 1990 by the Aristotelian Society. 6: 'Marxism and Contemporary Political Philosophy, or: Why Nozick Exercises Some Marxists More than He Does any Egalitarian Liberals', in Canadian Journal of Philosophy, supp. vol. 16, 1990. Copyright 1990 by Canadian Journal of Philosophy. 7: 'Marx and Locke on Land and Labour', in Proceedings of the British Academy, 71,1985 Lectures and Memoirs. Copyright 1986 by The British Academy. 11: 'The Future of a Disillusion', in Jim Hopkins and Anthony Savile (eds.), Psychoanalysis, Mind and Art: Perspectives on Richard Wollheim, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1992. Copyright 1992 by Basil Blackwell Ltd # works covered in future Cohen 2000: *If You're An Egalitarian, How Come You're So Rich?* If You're An Egalitarian, How Come You're So Rich? Cohen 1986: "Historical Inevitability and Human Agency in Marxism": Cohen 2008: *Rescuing Justice and Equality*: Cohen 2011: *Currency of Egalitarian Justice and Other Essays*: #####c ##### # Shortquotes #####o # On the nature of theory Cohen 1995: socialist theorists must justify equality under scarcity and its necessary institutions: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Marxism thought that equality would be delivered to us, by abundance, but we have to seek equality for a context of scarcity, and we consequently have to be far more clear than we were about what we are seeking, why we are justified in seeking it, and how it can be implemented, institutionally. That recognition must govern the future efforts of socialist economists and philosophers.""" # Against dogmatism Cohen 1995: "dogmatic socialist slumber": Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """I had never heard an argument against socialism for which I did not (so I thought) already have an answer in my pocket. Then one day in 1972, in my room at University College, Jerry Dworkin nudged me. He began a process that, in time, roused me from what had been my dogmatic socialist slumber.""" # Arguing for egalitarianism Cohen 1995: "now I do little else": Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """In the past, there seemed to be no need to argue for the desirability of an egalitarian socialist society. Now I do little else.""" # Utilitarian approach to freedom maximization Cohen 1995: "restrict the liberty of a few for the liberty of the many": Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Any but the most utopian socialist must be willing under certain conditions to restrict the liberty of a few for the sake of the liberty of many.""" # Shifting from anti-ethical to ethical socialism Cohen 1995: from predicting equality to demanding equality: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """A (supposedly) inevitable future [of] plenty was a reason for predicting equality. Persisting scarcity is now a reason for demanding it.""" # Dirty histories Cohen 1995: the standard self-ownership and exploitation argument works only against capitalisms with dirty pasts: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """[N]o Marxist would in fact tolerate a world in which differential talent allows self-owning individuals to be class-divided into buyers and sellers of labour-power, even when that position is reached from a starting point of initial equality of external resources. The standard Marxist critique of capitalist exploitation works only against capitalisms with dirty histories.""" # Against Nozick Cohen 1995: "patterns preserve liberty" Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality # Abandoning abundance Cohen 1995: we must abandon Marx's vision of abundance: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """We can no longer sustain Marx's extravagant, pre-green, materialist optimism. At least for the foreseeable future, we have to abandon the vision of abundance.""" #####c ##### # Terms used to represent "positive liberty" #####o real freedom control autonomy #####c ##### # # On anti-ethical Marxism, historical materialism, justice, and dialectical materialism # #####o ##### # Contrasting ethical socialism and anti-ethical Marxism #####o # On the nature of moral philosophy and historical materialism Cohen 1995: moral philosophy examines timeless normative truths and historical materialism (Marxist theory of history) examines time-contingent empirical truths: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/912126314494980116/unknown.png """My conception of moral and political philosophy was, and is, a standardly academic one: they are ahistorical disciplines which use abstract philosophical reflection to study the nature and truth of normative judgements. Historical materialism (which is what Karl Marx's theory of history came to be called) is, by contrast, an empirical theory [...] about the structure of society and the dynamics of history. It is not entirely without implications for normative philosophy, but it is substantially value-free: one could believe historical materialism but regret that the career of humanity is as it describes, and, more specifically, that, as it predicts, class society will be superseded by a classless one.""" # On how inevitability shaped anti-ethical socialism Cohen 1995: what classically distinguished utopian and scientific socialism: a shift from morals to facts: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/912136141539508295/unknown.png """Classical Marxism distinguished itself from what it regarded as the socialism of dreams by declaring a commitment to hard-headed historical and economic analysis: it was proud of what it considered to be the stoutly factual character of its central claims. The title of Engels' book, The Development of Socialism from Utopia to Science,4 articulates this piece of Marxist self-interpretation. Socialism, once raised aloft by airy ideals, would henceforth rest on a firm foundation of fact.""" Cohen 1995: why classical Marxists did not theorize about moral justifications for equality: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/912139766793895986/unknown.png """Classical Marxists believed that economic equality was both historically inevitable and morally right. They believed the first entirely consciously, and they believed the second more or less consciously, and exhibited more or less evasion when asked whether they believed it. It was partly because they believed that economic equality was historically inevitable that classical Marxists did not spend much time thinking about why equality was morally right, about exactly what made it morally binding. Economic equality was coming, it was welcome, and it would be a waste of time to theorize about why it was welcome, rather than about how to make it come as quickly and as painlessly as possible - for the date at which economic equality would be achieved, and the cost of reaching it, were, unlike economic equality itself, not themselves inevitable.""" #####c ##### # Anticontrasting ethical socialism and anti-ethical Marxism #####o # Mere bravado Cohen 1995: the supposed Marxist rejection of morals was just bravado: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/912136632667369553/unknown.png """But the favoured classical Marxist self-description, whether incoherent or not, was certainly in part bravado. For values of equality, community, and human self-realization were undoubtedly integral to the Marxist belief structure. All classical Marxists believed in some kind of equality, even if many would have refused to acknowledge that they believed in it and none, perhaps, could have stated precisely what principle of equality he believed in.""" #####c ##### # On benefits of moral justification #####o # On blind assumption of moral superiority Cohen 1995: if one does not examine ethical arguments for capitalism, one might assume socialism is naturally and easily superior: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """And you do not have to decide what principle justifies socialism to recommend it to all people of good will when you think that so many principles justify it that any person of good will would be moved by at least one of them.""" Cohen 1995: the above was Cohen's personal experience: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/912138514005643345/unknown.png """For, although I took for granted that socialism was to be preferred to capitalism for reasons of normative principle, and not, as some weirdly suggested, because historical materialism showed its advent to be inevitable, I also thought that socialism was so evidently superior to capitalism from any morally decent point of view, with respect to any attractive principle (of utility, or equality, or justice, or freedom, or democracy, or self-realization) that there was no necessity to identify the right point(s) of view from which to endorse it, no need to specify what principle(s) should guide the fight for socialism, and, therefore, no call to do normative philosophy for socialism's sake.""" # Observed empathy beyond self-interest Cohen 1995: workers in the socialist movement demonstrate much empathy beyond mere self-interest; and class self-interest cannot explain bourgeois fellow travelers: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/912135429497704479/unknown.png """I never believed, as many Marxists professed to do, that normative principles were irrelevant to the socialist movement, that, since the movement was of oppressed people fighting for their own liberation, there was no room or need for specifically moral inspiration in it. I thought no such thing partly for the plain reason that I observed enormous selfless dedication among the active communists who surrounded me in my childhood, and partly for the more sophisticated reason that the self-interest of any oppressed producer would tell him to stay at home, rather than to risk his neck in a revolution whose success or failure would be anyhow unaffected by his participation in it. Revolutionary workers and, a fortiori, bourgeois fellow-travellers without a particular material interest in socialism, must perforce be morally inspired. But I thought that, while historical materialism threw light on the different historical forms of injustice (such as slavery, serfdom and the condition of being a proletarian), and on how to eliminate injustice, it had nothing to say about what justice (tunelessly) is.""" Cohen 1995: we should not reduce all values to mere self-interest merely because historical materialism encourages us to view history in that way: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """And, second, I did not believe that historical materialism, in its best interpretation, reduces all values and principles to rationalizations of class interest, but, on the contrary, I believed that it looks to the end of class domination as the beginning of a society governed by 'a really human morality which stands above class antagonisms',2 a morality which has always had some sort of historical manifestation, within the confinement of class constraint.""" ^ Engels 1877: all previous morals have been bound up in the class societies in which they were born, and so only a post-class society can attemtp to birth a "really human morality": """We therefore reject every attempt to impose on us any moral dogma whatsoever as an eternal, ultimate and for ever immutable ethical law on the pretext that the moral world, too, has its permanent principles which stand above history and the differences between nations. We maintain on the contrary that all moral theories have been hitherto the product, in the last analysis, of the economic conditions of society obtaining at the time. And as society has hitherto moved in class antagonisms, morality has always been class morality; it has either justified the domination and the interests of the ruling class, or ever since the oppressed class became powerful enough, it has represented its indignation against this domination and the future interests of the oppressed. That in this process there has on the whole been progress in morality, as in all other branches of human knowledge, no one will doubt. But we have not yet passed beyond class morality. A really human morality which stands above class antagonisms and above any recollection of them becomes possible only at a stage of society which has not only overcome class antagonisms but has even forgotten them in practical life. And now one can gauge Herr Dühring’s presumption in advancing his claim, from the midst of the old class society and on the eve of a social revolution, to impose on the future classless society an eternal morality independent of time and changes in reality. Even assuming — what we do not know up to now — that he understands the structure of the society of the future at least in its main outlines.""" # critique of Cohen: Leiter 2002: normative theory cannot change the world, and is therefore a waste of philosophical time: """One posture in response to this problem is simply to declare, as Nagel does, that the value of moral theory "cannot be measured by its practical effects."116 But that response is unavailable to G. A. Cohen, since he has joined Marx in embracing the "practical effects" test as the relevant measure of value in matters theoretical.17 And once we take that as the measure of theoretical value, then the turn to normative theory that Cohen recommends for Marxists has no real justification. Marxists, like Posnerians, think that what we really need is an empirical understanding of how the world works, not ineffectual exhortation by academic philosophers to do the morally right thing. Marxists and Posnerians differ, to be sure, over how the world really works. But that question is, to quote Cohen, "where the action is," or at least ought to be.""" # On overreliance on empirical data that we know to be false Cohen 1995: when the Marxist hard shell of facts cracks, its weak underbelly of weak moral justification is exposed: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/912136692499099728/unknown.png """Marxists were not preoccupied with, and therefore never examined, principles of equality, or, indeed, any other values or principles. Instead, they devoted their intellectual energy to the hard factual carapace surrounding their values, to bold explanatory theses about history in general and capitalism in particular, the theses which gave Marxism its commanding authority in the field of socialist doctrine[.] [....] And now Marxism has lost much or most of its carapace, its hard shell of supposed fact. [....] It is therefore, now, far less different than it could once advertise itself to be from the Utopian socialism with which it so proudly contrasted itself. Its shell is cracked and crumbling, its soft underbelly is exposed.""" Cohen 1995: one does not need moral justification to advocate for socialism if socialism through self-interest is inevitable: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """It is partly because there is now patently no group that has the four listed features and, therefore, the will to, and capacity for, revolution, that Marxists, or what were Marxists, are impelled into normative political philosophy. [....] You do not have to justify a socialist transformation as a matter of principle to people who are driven to make it by the urgencies of their situation, and in a good position to succeed. [....] Capitalism does not dig its own grave by rearing up an agency of socialist transformation.10 Socialists must therefore settle for a less dramatic scenario, and they must engage in more moral advocacy than used to be fashionable.""" #####c ##### # On inevitability of socialism (Cohen: "obstetric") #####o # Summarizing the inevitability claims Cohen 1995: first, workers would grow in power and strength until capitalism could not resist: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Two supposedly irrepressible historical trends, working together, guaranteed ultimate economic equality. One was the rise of an organized working class, whose social emplacement, at the short end of inequality, directed it in favour of equality. The workers' movement would grow in numbers and in strength, until it had the power to abolish the unequal society which had nurtured its growth.""" Cohen 1995: second, the means of production would grow until material abundance made inequality impossible: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Two supposedly irrepressible historical trends, working together, guaranteed ultimate economic equality. [...] And the [second] trend helping to ensure an eventual equality was the development of the productive forces, the continual increase in the human power to transform nature for human benefit. That growth would issue in a material abundance so great that anything that anyone needed for a richly fulfilling life could be taken from the common store at no cost to anyone. The guaranteed future abundance served as a source of rebuttal to the suggestion that inequality might re-emerge, in a new form, after the revolution, peaceful or bloody, legal or illegal, fast or slow, that the proletariat could and would accomplish. There would be an interim period of limited inequality, along the lines of the lower stage of communism as Marx described that in his Gotha Programme critique, but, when 'all the springs of social wealth [came] to flow more freely', even that limited inequality would disappear,6 because everyone could have everything that they might want to have.""" # Summarizing the failure of the inevitability claims Cohen 1995: history "shredded" Marxist predictions; the proletariat never became the immense majority but instead divided; growing means of production must run up against ecological limits: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """History has shredded the predictions sketched in the foregoing paragraph. The proletariat did, for a while, grow larger and stronger, but it never became 'the immense majority',7 and it was ultimately reduced and divided by the increasing technological sophistication of the capitalist production process that had been expected to continue to expand its size and augment its power. And the development of the productive forces now runs up against a resource barrier. Technical knowledge has not stopped, and will not stop growing, but productive power, which is the capacity (all things considered) to transform nature into use-value, cannot expand pari passu with the growth of technical knowledge, because the planet Earth rebels: its resources turn out to be not lavish enough for continuous growth in technical knowledge to generate unceasing expansion of use-value.""" # The failure of the growth of the proletariat class Cohen 1995: no group ever and likely will ever meet the needs of a revolutionary proletariat -- defined as a producing, exploited, numerous, and needy group: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/912772275516895232/unknown.png """[T]he proletariat is in process of disintegration, in a sense that I try to make precise in section 5 of Chapter 6 below. The struggle for equality is consequently no longer a reflex movement on the part of an agent strategically placed within the capitalist process itself: socialist values have lost their mooring in capitalist social structure. For, however one chooses to apply the much contested label 'working class', there is now no group in advanced industrial society which unites the four characteristics of (1) being the producers on whom society depends, (2) being exploited, (3) being (with their families) the majority of society, and (4) being in dire need. There certainly still exist key producers, exploited people, and needy people, but these are not, now, as they were in the past, even roughly coincident designations, nor, still less, alternative designations of the great majority of the population. And, as a result, there is no group with both (because of its exploitation, and its neediness) a compelling interest in, and (because of its productiveness, and its numbers) a ready capacity to achieve, a socialist transformation. In confidently expecting the proletariat to become such a group, classical Marxism failed to anticipate what we now know to be the natural course of capitalist social evolution.""" # The failure of the growth of the means of production Cohen 1995: the ecological crisis demands degrowth: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """But two propositions seem to me to be true: that our environment is already severely degraded, and that, if there is a way out of the crisis, then it must include much less aggregate material consumption than what now prevails, and, as a result, unwanted changes in life-style, for hundreds of millions of people. [....] It is beyond dispute that Western consumption, measured in terms of use of fossil fuel energy and natural resources, must, on average, fall, drastically, and that non-Western consumption, considered in the aggregate, will never reach current Western levels, so measured.""" #####c #####c ##### # # Moral arguments for egalitarianism # #####o ##### # On weakness of classical Marxist self-ownership arguments ##### # Self-ownership as shared characteristic of Marxism and libertarianism Cohen 1995: self-ownership is a characteristic of standard Marxist arguments against exploitation: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """The libertarian principle of self-ownership says that each person enjoys, over herself and her powers, full and exclusive rights of control and use, and therefore owes no service or product to anyone else that she has not contracted to supply. [...] [A]n appeal to selfownership is latent in the standard Marxist condemnation of exploitation, and it is therefore difficult for Marxists to reject libertarianism without putting a key position of their own into question.""" Cohen 1995: self-ownership is a characteristic of standard Marxist arguments against exploitation: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """[I]n standard presentations of the doctrine of exploitation [Marxists] more or less affirm [a principle of self-ownership], as an implication of the charge that exploiting capitalists steal labour-time from workers, since the latter are therein represented as owning their labour-power. I venture that it is for this reason that those of us who have a Marxist formation are more disturbed by libertarian arguments than Rawls-like liberals are: we inherit a critique of capitalism which relies, unthinkingly, on a libertarian premiss.""" # self-ownership is the basis of the Marxist argument against exploitation Cohen 1995: Marx likens capitalist employment to feudal employment: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1163987961692573707/image.png?ex=65419343&is=652f1e43&hm=244cb1da517c44a9978f03ad4c8cca630bd3cff80b197abd08eca358cfd10213& Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """To support his condemnation of capitalism, Marx argued that the relationship between buyers and sellers of labour power was in several central respects substantially the same as the relationship between feudal lords and serfs. Feudal law and usage require that the serf give up part of his life to the lord. The theft of the serfs labour time begins when he leaves his own plot and proceeds to fulfil his duties on the lord's demesne. It is manifestly true, a matter not of theory but of observation, that the serf spends part of his time working for himself and another part in unrecompensed4 work for the lord. According to Marx, it is no less true of the wage worker that he is forced to give up part of his life to a powerful superior. But the truth is, in his case, much less manifest. For two surface features of capitalism conceal its underlying reality. First, under capitalism exploitation is mediated by a contract which the worker is formally (albeit only formally) free not to enter: the serf, by contrast, enjoys no formal freedom not to work for the lord. And second, the division of the worker's labour time into time that he works for himself and time that he works for the capitalist requires economic analysis and is not, as it is in the feudal case, a matter of observation.""" Cohen 1995: that comparison requires Marx to believe that people are the rightful owners of their own labor-time -- in short, in strong self-ownership: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/742557921849901077/1163988157453320233/image.png?ex=65419372&is=652f1e72&hm=38cd3d6e883dfc5461b9a542dac3edafdc83c29d92bea065e68b6869e77914fe& Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Marxists say that capitalists steal labour time from working people. But you can steal from someone only that which properly belongs to him. The Marxist critique of capitalist injustice therefore implies that the worker is the proper owner of his own labour time: he, no one else, has the right to decide what will be done with it. But he could hardly have that right without having the right to decide what to do with his own capacity to work, his labour power. The claim that capitalists steal labour time from working people therefore implies that the worker is the proper owner of his own power. But Marxists could not think that the worker is the proper owner of his own power unless they thought that the same is true of people in general. Hence the Marxist contention that the capitalist exploits the worker depends on the proposition that people are the rightful owners of their own powers. That proposition is the thesis of self-ownership, and I claim that (something like)5 it undergirds the Marxist case for the proposition that the capitalist relationship is inherently exploitative. The underlying idea is that a person should be sovereign with respect to what he will do with his energies. He should not deploy them under another person's orders in the manner of a slave and have part or all of his product taken from him for nothing in return.""" #####c ##### # Against self-ownership #####o # Self-ownership conflicts with positive freedom and equality Cohen 1995: those committed to egalitarianism and real freedom must reject self-ownership to some degree: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Whatever polemical or debating value the idea of joint ownership [ie, communal self-ownership] may have, it is not a rule that can be favoured by egalitarians who care about real freedom and autonomy. [...] [N]o egalitarian rule regarding external resources alone will, together with self-ownership, deliver equality of outcome, except, as in the case of joint ownership, at an unacceptable sacrifice of autonomy. There is a tendency in self-ownership to produce inequality, and the only way to nullify that tendency (without formally abridging self-ownership) is through a regime over external resources which is so rigid that it excludes exercise of independent rights over oneself. It follows that if, as I believe that they are, Marxists (and their lineal descendants) are committed both to equality and to autonomy, then they have to reject self-ownership, in some or other fashion and degree.""" # Rejection of self-ownership does not endorse slavery Cohen 1995: denying self-ownership does not mean using humans as means: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """I seek to deprive the thesis [of self-ownership] of appeal by arguing that its proponents comprehensively misrepresent both the price of rejecting it and the benefits of accepting it. [...] [D]enial of self-ownership does not mean endorsing slavery, nullifying human autonomy, and treating people as means rather than as ends, and that affirming self-ownership threatens autonomy and provides no guarantee at all against a utilitarian use of people.""" #####c ##### # Against Nozickian self-ownership #####o # Unjust conclusions: Slavery with a just genesis Cohen 1995: Nozick claims that we may not consider distributions unjust if they were arrived at by just steps; however, this idea permits (non-inherited) slavery: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Nozick holds that steps are just if they are free of injustice, and that they are free of injustice if they are fully voluntary on the part of all the agents who take them [....] Does liberty always preserve justice? A standard way of testing the claim would be to look for states of affairs which would be accounted unjust but which might be generated by the route [Nozick] endorses. Perhaps the strongest counter-example of this form would be slavery. We might then say: voluntary self-enslavement is possible. But slavery is unjust. Therefore (2) is false. [....] A putative example of justly generated slavery: A and B are identical in talents and tastes. Each would so like to own a slave that he is willing to risk becoming one in exchange for the same chance of getting one. So they toss a coin, B loses, and A clamps chains on him. (For discussion of this case, see subsection Id of Chapter 2 below. For penetrating remarks on Nozick's toleration of slavery, see Attracta Ingram's Political Theory of Rights, pp. 38-9. For a reply to Ingram, see Hillel Steiner, An Essay on Rights, pp. 232-3""" # Unjust methods: Transactional justice is insufficient to guarantee justice Cohen 1995: transactional justice follows Nozick's principle of just transfers; but because transactional justice must be fully informed, and because individuals might make uninformed transactions that they would reject if they had been informed, this principle cannot justify market transactions: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """But transactional justice, so characterized, is supposed - given an initially just situation - to confer justice on what results from it. [....] And that is questionable. Of each person who agrees to a transaction we may ask: [W]ould he have agreed to it had he known what its outcome would be? Since the answer may be negative, it is far from evident that transactional justice, as described, transmits justice to its results. Perhaps the desired transmission occurs when the answer to the italicized question is positive. Perhaps, in other words, we can accept (3), which increases the requirements for steps to be justice-preserving: (3) Whatever arises from a just situation as a result of fully voluntary transactions which all transacting agents would still have agreed to if they had known what the results of so transacting were to be is itself just. (3) looks plausible, but its power to endorse market-generated states of affairs is, while not nil, very weak.""" # Unjust methods & unjust outcomes: Transactional justice and power Cohen 1995: distributing a large amount of wealth to an individual also grants them power over others; this may be unjust, and (if societymembers were unaware of this) a violation of the principle that transactional justice must be informed: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Among the reasons for limiting how much an individual may hold, regardless of how he came to hold it, is to prevent him from acquiring, through his holdings, an unacceptable amount of power over others: the Chamberlain transaction looks less harmless when we focus on that consideration. [...] The fans' access to resources might now be prejudiced by the disproportionate access Chamberlain's wealth gives him, and the consequent power over others that he now has. For all that Nozick shows, a socialist may claim that this is not a bargain informed people in an egalitarian society will be apt to make: they will refrain from so contracting as to upset the equality they prize, and they will be especially averse to doing so because the resulting changes would profoundly affect their children. (This may seem an hysterical projection of the effect of the Chamberlain transaction, but I take it that we have to consider the upshot of general performance of transactions of that kind, and then the projection is entirely realistic.) [....] Accordingly, if a citizen of the Dl society joins with others in paying twenty-five cents to Wilt to watch Wilt play, without thinking about the effect on Wilt's power, then the result may be deemed 'disturbing' in the sense of p. 159 of Anarchy (see p. 22 above).""" # Absurd assumptions: Societal norms and societal rules Cohen 1995: Nozick's transactional justice assumes that transactional justice occurs from individual choices, rather than society establishing norms/rules to encourage/establish certain outcomes -- such as redistributive taxation: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Of course a single person's paying a quarter makes no appreciable difference if the rest are anyway going to do so. But a convention might evolve not to make such payments, or, more simply, there could be a democratically authorized taxation system which maintains wealth differentials within acceptable limits. Whether Wilt would then still play is a further question on which I shall not comment, except to say that anyone who thinks it obvious that he would not play misunderstands human nature, or basketball, or both.""" # As a bad intuition pump: In an egalitarian society Cohen 1995: how we would feel about Chamberlain becoming rich in today's unegalitarian society may be very different from how we would feel about Chamberlain becoming rich in an egalitarian society: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """It is easy to think carelessly about the example. How we feel about people like Chamberlain getting a lot of money *as things are* is a poor index of how people would feel *in the imagined situation*. Among us the ranks of the rich and the powerful exist, and it can be pleasing, given that they do, when a figure like Chamberlain joins them. Who better and more innocently deserves to be among them? But the case before us is a society of equality in danger of losing its essential character. [....] As an argument about justice the Chamberlain story is either question-begging or uncompelling.""" # Unjust outcomes: Nozick minimizes negative unfreedom rather than maximizing positive freedom Cohen 1995: todo: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Any but the most Utopian socialist must be willing under certain conditions to restrict the liberty of a few for the sake of the liberty of many.27 But, so Nozick would charge, such a socialist would thereby violate 'moral side constraints' that apply to all human action. For Nozick thinks that we may never restrict one person's freedom in order to enhance the welfare or the freedom of very many others, or even of everyone, that person included (where we know that the restriction will redound to his benefit). If children are undernourished in our society, we are not allowed to tax millionaires in order to finance a subsidy on the price of milk to poor families, for we would be violating the rights, and the 'dignity' of the millionaires.28 We cannot appeal that the effective liberty of the children (and the adults they will become) would be greatly enhanced at little expense to the millionaires' freedom, for Nozick forbids any act which restricts freedom: he does not call for its maximization. (This means that if it were true that certain exercises of freedom would lead to totalitarianism, Nozick would still protect them. Market freedom itself would be sacrificed by Nozick if the only way to preserve it were by limiting it.)29""" #####c ##### # Contrasting Marxism and left-libertarianism ##### # Marxists must reject self-ownership and unequal initial distribution as anti-capitalist arguments Cohen 1995: initial unequal distribution is not sufficient to attack capitalism per se; Marxists cannot reject capitalism per se without rejecting self-ownership: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """[Marxists] must, in particular, distinguish themselves more clearly than it has been their practice to do from 'left-wing libertarians', who affirm complete self-ownership but divide worldly resources in an initially equal way. [....] The first area is the Marxist critique [...] of the injustice of the capitalist system as such. In that critique, the exploitation of workers by capitalists derives entirely from the fact that workers have been deprived of access to physical productive resources and must therefore sell their labour power to capitalists, who enjoy a class monopoly in those resources. Hence, for Marxists, the injustice of capitalism is traceable to an initial inequality with respect to the distribution of external things, and suppression of exploitation should therefore require no rejection of the thesis of self-ownership: a rectification of original resource inequality should suffice. If its diagnosis of the source of capitalist injustice were correct, then Marxism could prescribe as an antidote to it what left libertarians prescribe as a matter of principle. But no Marxist would in fact tolerate a world in which differential talent allows self-owning individuals to be class-divided into buyers and sellers of labour-power, even when that position is reached from a starting point of initial equality of external resources. The standard Marxist critique of capitalist exploitation works only against capitalisms with dirty histories. Because Marxists wish to reject capitalism as such, it is necessary for them to deny the principle of self-ownership.""" # Marxists wish to design a society which forces the better-off to benefit the worse-off Cohen 1995: absolute self-ownership does not guarantee that each individual is maximally able to pursue their own freedom, which suggests that absolute self-ownership must be curtailed: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """The second area in which Marxists must distance themselves from leftwing libertarianism is with respect to the design of the good society. In Marx's good society, productive resources are not privately (or, for that matter, jointly) owned,16 but the individual remains effectively sovereign over himself. He conducts himself 'just as he has a mind',17 developing himself freely not only without blocking the free development of others, but even as a 'condition'18 of the free development of others. [...] Marxists must legislate against self-ownership, instead of avoiding the issue by celebrating the entirely untrammelled freedom for all that abundance would provide.""" #####c ##### # # What socialism should look like # #####o ##### # On regulating behavior under socialism #####o # On gifts and small market transactions under egalitarianism Cohen 1995: gifts do not follow a patterning principle: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """[T]here must be a role for entitlement in determining acceptable holdings.11 For unless the just society forbids gifts, it must allow transfers which do not answer to a patterning principle. This is compatible with placing restraints on the scope of gift, and we shall shortly see why an egalitarian society might be justified in doing so.""" Cohen 1995: a rough justice of approximate equality (including gifts, small market transactions, etc.) is preferable to the freedom loss and economic loss required to achieve absolute equality: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Even if we identify justice with equality, as socialists, broadly speaking, do, we may tolerate deviations from equality consequent on perturbations caused by gift, small-scale market transactions, and so on. Considerations of privacy, acquired expectations, the moral and economic costs of surveillance, etc. declare against attempting a realization of justice in the high degree that would be possible if (6) and (7) were satisfied. We let justice remain rough, in deference to other values. [....] Accordingly, socialism tolerates gift-giving, and 'loving behaviour' is not 'forbidden'.26 Gift is possible under a system which limits how much anyone may have and what he may do with it.""" # On capitalist-ophiles under socialism Cohen 1995: we may imagine that, under nascent socialism, either (1) very few, (2) very many, or (3) an intermediate proportion of people would prefer capitalism: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """If [the belief that all or most people will want to maintain the socialist pattern] is unrealistic, three possibilities present themselves: very few would lack enthusiasm for socialism; very many would; some intermediate proportion would. Cohen 1995: if a very small minority of people prefer capitalism, socialists should grant them that freedom (because they cannot meaningfully change society's structure): Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """In the first possibility, there remain a few capitalistically minded persons, meaning by 'a few' that their capitalist acts would not undermine the basic socialist structure. No sane socialist should commit himself to the suppression of capitalist activity on the stated scale. (It might even be desirable to allocate to capitalistophiles a territory in which they can bargain with and hire one another.)""" Cohen 1995: if a very large majority of people prefer capitalism, socialists should not impose socialist tyranny (because socialist tyranny would fail anyways): Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Suppose, though, that the disposition to perform capitalist acts is strong and widespread, so that socialism is possible only with tyranny. What socialist favours socialism in such circumstances? [....] Certainly Marx insisted that it would be folly to attempt an institution of socialism except under the propitious conditions he was confident capitalism would create.24 A socialist believes that propitious conditions are accessible. He need not proclaim the superiority of socialism regardless of circumstances.""" Cohen 1995: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """Could a socialist society contain an amount of inclination to capitalism of such a size that unless it were coercively checked socialism would be subverted, yet sufficiently small that, in socialist judgement, socialism, with the required coercion, would still be worthwhile? Marxian socialists believe so, and that does commit them to prohibiting capitalist acts between consenting adults in certain circumstances, notably those which follow a successful revolution. But why should they flinch from that prohibition? They can defend it by reference to the social good and widened freedom that it promotes. Nozick would object that the prohibition violates moral 'side constraints': certain freedoms, for example of contract, ought never to be infringed, whatever the consequences of allowing their exercise may be.""" #####c #####c ##### # # Ecology # #####o ##### # On the interaction of degrowth and equality #####o # Negative growth demands equality Cohen 1995: in conditions of negative growth, the arguments for inequality are substantially weakened: Self-Ownership, Freedom, and Equality """When aggregate wealth is increasing, the condition of those at the bottom of society, and in the world, can improve, even while the distance between them and the better off does not diminish. Where such improvement occurs (and it has occurred, on a substantial scale, for many disadvantaged groups), egalitarian justice does not cease to demand equality, but that demand can seem shrill, and even dangerous, if the worse off are steadily growing better off, even though they are not catching up with those above them. When, however, progress must give way to regress, when average material living standards must fall, then poor people and poor nations can no longer hope to approach the levels of amenity which are now enjoyed by the world's well off. Sharply falling average standards mean that settling for limitless improvement, instead of equality, ceases to be an option, and huge disparities of wealth become correspondingly more intolerable, from a moral point of view.""" #####c #####c ##### # # kautsky # ##### ##### # necessity of revolutionary rupture to achieve socialism #####o Kautsky 1902: """[A]s each animal creature must at one time go through a catastrophe in order to reach a higher stage of development (the act of birth or of the breaking of a shell), so society can only be raised to a higher stage of development through a catastrophe.""" """A socialist revolution can at a single stroke transfer a factory from capitalist to social property. But it is only gradually, through a course of slow evolution, that one may transform a factory from a place of monotonous, repulsive, forced labor into an attractive spot for the joyful activity of happy human beings. A socialist revolution can at a single stroke transform the great bonanza farms into social property. In that portion of agriculture where the little industry still rules, the organs of social and socialist production must be first created, and that can come only as a result of slow development.""" """It is claimed also that the contrast between proletariat and bourgeoisie is not increasing, and in every modern State there are enough democratic arrangements to make it possible for the proletariat, if not to gain the power, still to gain power gradually, step by step and steadily increasing, so that the necessity of a social revolution ceases. Let us see in how far these exceptions are justified.""" #####c ##### # social revolution through reform in feudal europe #####o Kautsky 1902: social revolution as a single rupture largely did not occur in feudal Europe, but instead proceeded via many gradual, imperceptible steps: """If the universal armament of the people did not encourage great social revolutions, it did make it much easier for armed conflict between the classes to arise at the slightest opportunity. There is no lack of violent uprisings and civil wars in antiquity and the Middle Ages. The ferocity with which these were fought was often so great as to lead to the expulsion, expropriation and oftentimes to the extermination of the conquered. Those who consider violence as a sign of social revolution will find plenty of such revolutions in earlier ages. But those who conceive social revolution as the conquest of political power by a previously subservient class and the transformation of the juridical and political superstructure of society, particularly in the property relations, will find no social revolution there. Social development proceeded piece-meal, step by step, not through single great catastrophes but in countless little broken-up, apparently disconnected, often interrupted, ever renewing, mostly unconscious movements. The great social transformation of the times we are considering, the disappearance of slavery in Europe, came about so imperceptibly that the contemporaries of this movement took no notice of it, and one is to-day compelled to reconstruct it through hypotheses.""" Kautsky 1902: social revolution in feudal Europe was difficult because most communities possessed no identity or material ties beyond their community, which limited the scope of a class revolution: """Revolutions in Antiquity and the Middle Ages Any definite conclusion as to whether revolution is a necessity or not can be drawn only from an investigation of the facts of social development, and not through analogies with natural science. It is only necessary to glance at these earlier stages of development in order to see that social revolution, in the narrow sense in which we are here using it, is no necessary accompaniment of social development. There was a social development and a very far-reaching one before the rise of class antagonisms and political power. In these stages the conquest of political power by an oppressed class, and consequently a social revolution, was as a matter of course impossible. Even after class antagonisms and political power have arisen it is a long time before we find, either in antiquity or the Middle Ages, anything which corresponds to our idea of revolution. We find plenty of examples of bitter class struggles, civil wars and political catastrophes, but none of these brought about a fundamental and permanent renovation of the conditions of property and therewith a new social form. To my mind the reasons for this are as follows: In antiquity and also in the Middle ages the center of gravity of the economic and also of the political life lay in the community. Each community was sufficient in itself in all essential points and was only attached to the exterior world through loose bands. The great states were only conglomerates of communities which were held together only through either a dynasty or through another ruling and exploiting community. Each community had its own special economic development corresponding to its own peculiar characteristics and corresponding to these also its special class struggles. The political revolutions also at that time were chiefly only communal revolutions. It was as a matter of course impossible to transform the whole social life of a great territory by a political revolution.""" #####c ##### # efficacy of reform #####o Kautsky 1902: there is half-truth in the idea that democracy changes the revolutionary struggle: """But does not democracy provide the foundation for a gradual, imperceptible transformation of capitalism into Socialism without any violent break with existing things if we but presuppose the conquest of political power by the proletariat? There are some politicians who assert that only despotic class rule necessitates revolution; that revolution is rendered superfluous by democracy. It is claimed that we have today sufficient democracy in all civilized countries to make possible a peaceable revolutionless development. Above all it is possible to found cooperatives for consumption whose extension will introduce production for use, and so slowly but surely drive capitalist production out of one sphere after another. Most important of all, it is possible to organize unions that shall continually limit the power of the capitalist in his business, until constitutionalism shall supplant absolutism in the factory, and thus the way will be prepared for the slow transition to the republicanized factory. Still further, the socialists can penetrate into the municipal councils, influence public labor in the interest of the laboring class, extend the circle of municipal activities, and by the continuous extension of the circle of municipal production narrow the field of private production. Finally the socialists are pressing into parliament, where they are ever gaining more influence, and push through one reform after the other, restrict the power of the capitalists by labor legislation, and simultaneously extend ever wider the circle of governmental production, while they work for the nationalization of the great monopolies. So by the exercise of democratic rights upon existing grounds the capitalist society is gradually and without any shock growing into Socialism. Consequently the revolutionary conquest of political powers by the proletariat is unnecessary, and the efforts towards it directly hurtful, since they can operate in no other way than to disturb this slowly but surely advancing process. So much for the opponents of revolutionary development. It is an attractive picture they have painted for us, and again it cannot be truthfully said that it is wholly built in the air. The facts upon which it is founded actually exist. But the truth that they tell is only a half-truth. A little dialectical reflection would have shown them the whole.""" Kautsky 1902: elections, cooperatives, and unions are not superfluous, but their progress does not achieve social revolution: """I do not wish to be understood as holding democracy superfluous, or to take the position that cooperatives, unions, the entrance of social democracy into municipalities and parliaments, or the attainment of single reforms, is worthless. Nothing would be more incorrect. On the contrary, all these are of incalculable value to the proletariat. They are only insignificant as means to avoid a revolution. This conquest of political power by the proletariat is of the highest value exactly because it makes possible a higher form of the revolutionary struggle. This struggle is no longer, as in 1789, a battle of unorganized mobs with no political form, with no insight into the relative strength of the contending factors: with no profound comprehension of the purposes of the struggle and the means to its solution; no longer a battle of mobs that can be deceived and bewildered by every rumor or accident. It is a battle of organized, intelligent masses, full of stability and prudence, that do not follow every impulse or explode over every insult, or collapse under every misfortune. On the other hand, the elections are a means to count ourselves and the enemy and they grant thereby a clear view of the relative strength of the classes and parties, their advance and their retreat. They prevent premature outbreaks and they guard against defeats. They also grant the possibility that the opponents will themselves recognize the untenability of many positions and freely surrender them when their maintenance is no life-and-death question for them. So that the battle demands fewer victims, is less sanguinary and depends less upon blind chance.""" #####c ##### # differences in revolution then and now #####o Kautsky 1902: revolution in the old style cannot exist -- democratic rights and bourgeois organizations have altered our organizations and our enemies: """There is only one thing I think that one can certainly say to-day about the approaching revolution. It will be wholly different from any of its predecessors. It is one of the greatest mistakes that revolutionists as well as their opponents frequently commit to present the coming revolution according to the model of past ones for there is nothing easier than to prove that such revolutions are no longer possible. The conclusion is then at hand that the idea of a social revolution is an entirely outgrown one. It is the first time in the history of the world that we are confronted with a revolutionary struggle to be fought out under the application of democratic forms by organizations created upon the foundation of democratic freedom against resources such as the world has not yet seen, prominent among which are organizations of employers before which even monarchs bow and whose power will be strengthened by the governmental powers of bureaucracy and militarism, which the modern great nations have inherited from absolutism.""" Kautsky 1902: while the absolutist feudal lords were once our enemy, the government is no longer our key enemy; democratic rights and bourgeois organizations have altered our organizations and our enemies: """One of the peculiarities of the present situation consists in the fact that, as we have already pointed out, it is no longer the governments which offer us the harshest resistance. Under absolutism, against which former revolutions were turned, the government was supreme and class antagonisms could not clearly develop. The government hindered not alone the exploited but also the exploiting classes from freely defending their interests. On the side Of government there stood only a portion of the exploiting class; another and a very considerable part of the exploiters, namely, the industrial capitalists, mere in the camp of the opposition, together with the whole mass of the laboring class – not simply proletarians, but also the small bourgeois and the peasants – except in some backward localities. Government was also isolated from the people. It had no hold on the broad masses of the populace; it represented the most highly favored strength of the oppression and the exploitation of the people. A coup d’etat could under certain circumstances suffice to overthrow it. In a democracy not alone the exploited but the exploiting class can more freely develop their organization, and it is necessary that they do this if they are to be able to resist their opponents. The strength not only of the former but of the latter as well is greater than under absolutism. They use their forces recklessly and more harshly than the government itself, which no longer stands above them, but rather beneath them. The revolutionary circles have also to deal not only with the government but also with the powerful organizations of the exploiters. And the revolutionary circles no longer represent as in the early revolutions an overwhelming majority of the people opposed to a handful of exploiters. To-day they represent in reality only one class, the proletariat, to which not only the whole body of the exploiting class, but also the great mass of the farmers, and a great majority of the intellectuals stand opposed.""" #####c #####c